Metrostudy Executive Market Briefing

Metrostudy
Executive Market Briefing
2013 Q4
National Economic Overview
ISM – Purchasing Managers Index
ISM ‐ Purchasing Managers Index, 2009‐December 2013
65.0
60.0
56.2
55.0
GROWTH
50.0
NO GROWTH
45.0
RECESSION
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
Source: Institute of Supply Management
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
3
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Index Trend
Consumer Confidence Index, 1998‐Present
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
GROWTH
80
70
STATIC
60
50
RECESSION
40
30
20
10
0
4Q98
4Q99
4Q00
4Q01
4Q02
4Q03
4Q04
4Q05
4Q06
4Q07
4Q08
4Q09
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
Source: Conference Board
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
5
Interest Rates
Short Term Mortgage Rate Trend
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
7
National Economic Overview
Single Family Starts – NAHB Projections
Source: NAHB
Metrostudy Forecast:
2014: 777,000 2015: 1,081,000
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
National Economic Overview
Job Growth Ranking by State
Top 10 States ‐ Annual 2013 Estimate
Rank State
Current Emp Growth/Decline % Change
1 Texas
11,018,420
+276,540
+2.5%
2 California
14,176,400
+206,370
+1.5%
3 Florida
7,487,890
+123,980
+1.7%
4 New York
8,854,530
+81,450
+0.9%
5 Georgia
3,987,520
+75,420
+1.9%
6 North Carolina
4,021,900
+57,140
+1.4%
7 Washington
2,898,810
+54,950
+1.9%
8 Colorado
2,335,000
+54,890
+2.4%
9 Arizona
2,482,530
+50,990
+2.1%
10 Minnesota
2,751,470
+50,970
+1.9%
TOP 10 TOTAL
60,014,470
+1,032,700
+1.7%
SHARE OF US
44.1%
57.5%
US TOTAL
136,151,780
+1,795,220
+1.3%
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January 2014|
Texas Economy
MSA – Annual Job Growth: 2013 Estimate
Source: BLS
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Economy
MSA Employment Growth
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston Economy
MSA Population Projections
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Energy Sector
Houston Economy
Annual International Demand for Oil
Source: IEA
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Economy
Oil Trend – Monthly Spot Price
Forecast
2014: $93.33 2015: $89.98
Source: Energy Information Administration
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Economy
Natural Gas – Wellhead Price
Forecast
2014: $4.01 2015: $4.23
Source: Energy Information Administration
Expansion Threshold
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Multifamily Market
Houston
Apartment Rental Rates
Source: Apartment Data Services
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston
Apartments – Supply v. Demand
Source: ADS
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston Existing Home Market
Houston
Single Family Home Sales - MLS
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston
MLS Months of Supply
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston
Historical SF Leases – 4Q07 to 4Q13
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston
Home Price Appreciation vs. MLS Months of Supply
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
$200,000 Home Scenario - Home Price Appreciation
Texas Markets – 2000 through 2013
Assumed $200,000
Home Purchase
in 2000
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Inner-Loop Market
Houston Inner Loop Market
Timber Grove MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Timber Grove MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Rice Military / Washington MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Rice Military / Washington MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Houston Heights MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Houston Heights MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
West University / Bellaire MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
West University / Bellaire MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
East of Downtown MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
East of Downtown MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Oak Forest MLS
Houston Inner Loop Market
Oak Forest MLS
Houston New Home Market
Houston Market
Annual Starts and Closings Trends
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
Houston Median New Home Price
Base Price Offerings
22% increase
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
 Copyright Metrostudy 2014 | January, 2014 |
#7 Woodforest
444 Starts
#10 Canyon Gate West
365 Starts
#3 The Woodlands
713 Starts
#8 Pine Mill Ranch
380 Starts
#9 Firethorne
375 Starts
#1 Cinco Ranch
819 Starts
#5 Cross Creek Ranch
462 Starts
#6 Aliana
451 Starts
#2 Riverstone
714 Starts
#4 Sienna Plantation
488 Starts
Houston Lot Trends
Houston
Lot Delivery vs. Absorption
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston
Vacant Developed Lots
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Houston
Future Lot Detail
Metrostudy Houston 4Q13 Executive Briefing
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Thank You
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