Closings - Atlanta Area Chapter

Transcription

We conduct field research on new subdivisions in 22 Counties each quarter
Eugene James, Regional Director
[email protected]
connect on LinkedIn
404-567-5045
Single Family and
Residential Market Outlook
Sept. 24, 2015
© Copyright Metrostudy 2015
METRO ATLANTA
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT HISTORY
2600000
Up 242,000 jobs from 3 years ago Up 310,100 from 5 years ago
UP 100,100 from PEAK Dec 2007 A New RECORD for TOTAL EMPLOYED IN
ATLANTA!
2550000
2.58 million employed,
61% of all people employed in Georgia
2500000
2450000
2400000
2350000
Averaging
90,000 net
new jobs annually
for the past 18 months
2300000
2250000
2200000
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
Jul-03
Jul-02
Jul-01
Jul-00
Atlanta Apartment Market
Future home buyers
Fueled by job market
National Annual Effective Rent Growth
Effective annual rent growth of 5%,
a $58 increase from one year earlier
Occupancy was 95.2% in July
down from June’s level of 95.3%
MSA’s Ranked by Rent Growth July 2015
#12
Source: axiometrics
Atlanta Submarkets Ranked by % Change in Rent Growth
Source: apartmentlist.com August2015
Most Expensive Rents Ranked by City
1 bedrooms up 6.3% YoY
2 bedrooms up 3.9% YoY
Source: apartmentlist.com August 2015
Atlanta Resale Market
Single Family, Townhouse and Condo
Year over Year
Inventory same YoY
Closings same YoY
Source: FMLS
Atlanta Resale Market Trends
closings and inventory
65,600
August 2015
70,000
65,000
Includes single family detached, townhome and condo
60,000
55,000
Units per Year
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Annual Closings
Source: FMLS Only
17% TH/Condo Closings
Total Inventory
12% TH/Condo Inventory
Includes single family detached, townhome and condo
Source: FMLS
Atlanta Resale Months of Supply
Trends
14.0
12.0
12.1
10.9
10.3 10.3
10.0
Months of Supply
3.9 Month Supply
(abnormally low for four years)
13.8
13.2
8.0 8.5
12.3
12.2
11.5
11.1
1110.9
10.6
10.110
9.5
9.3
8.4
7.8
6.0
4.0
2.0
7.67.6
7.17.4
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.3
5.8
7.5
6 to 7 months was about normal
5.9
5.3
9.3
4.54.54.3
4.13.9
4
3.9
7.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
5.93.2
0.0
Months of Supply of Resale Inventory
Listings v. Annual Sales
By Price Range – August 2015
Resale Single Family Detached
83%
Annual Sales
10,000
Listings
of all closings
MOS
Months of Supply
13.8
8,000
INVENTORY AND MONTHS SUPPLY UP 40%+
IN HIGHER PRICE POINTS
14.0
12.0
10.0
6,000
8.0
3.2
4,000
2,000
3.0
3.2
3.6
4.1
4.2
5.2
7.1
5.5
4.0
0
Source: FMLS
6.0
2.0
<
$100- $150- $200- $250- $300- $350- $400- $500- $700+
$100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $500 $700
Atlanta Resale and REO Median Price Trends
$200,000
+11%
Sales Volume = 2007 levels, Prices are at all time record highs
July 2005
Jan 2012
Source:
Core Logic and
$110,000
July 2015
Atlanta Resale Price Trends
All Counties Detached only
Median Closing Prices with REO Transactions
Average size = 2,048 SF or $90 PSF (up 7%YoY)
2Q14
$175,000
2Q15*
$185,000
%diff
+5.7%
19% REO
16% REO while
prices
continue
to decline
Double
digit price
changes are unsustainable
calculated usi%5ng all purchasers individual and corporate
Affordability is declining
*3 month moving average
Source: Coe Logic and Metrosearch Property Analysis system
Larger Homes Resale Price Trends
2,000+ Square Feet Houses
Average size = 2,741 sf
$95 PSF 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths
Median Closing Prices with REO’s
2Q14
$255,000
14% REO
2Q15*
$270,000
%diff
5.9 %
10% REO
More competitive with New Home Sales
Distressed sales continue while
average closing prices continue to decline
* All closings within a 3 month moving average
Source: Metrosearch
Appraisals Lag Home Prices
When Markets are in Transition
•
•
•
•
•
The Atlanta market is in transition
Closings are historical and rear mirror
Prices are on the rise and inventory is low
Multiple-offers and above ask are common
Agents adding to MLS AFTER buyer has
been secured (pocket listings) Impacting
appraisals by not selling at max value
Starts - Closings (move-ins) and Inventory
The New Home Market
Are We There Yet?
The information in the following pages comes from our primary field research and is copy-written. Thank you for not sharing with non-clients
Atlanta Housing Market
Single Family and Townhome Combined
22 counties combined 2Q15
ATLANTA NEW HOME MARKET
Quarterly Starts and Closings
(move-ins)
5,524
+23%
6,000
5,000
Abnormally high (41%) increase from last quarter
4,588
4,000
+22%
3,000
2,000
1,000
Bottom
-
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
Quarterly Starts
Quarterly Closings
North vs. South Atlanta
Quarterly Starts and Closings (move-ins)
Starts 4,117 +18%
Closings 3,554 +20
4,500
4,000
South Quarterly Starts
South Quarterly Closings
North Quarterly Starts
North Quarterly Closings
74% of the Starts activity is in North Atlanta
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Starts 1,374 +33%
Closings 1,017 +36%
1,500
I-20 is the boundary line
1,000
500
-
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Quarterly Starts & Closings – 6 Year History
90,000
Starts
+12%
80,000
70,000
Closings
+10%
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
Quarterly Starts
Quarterly Closings
© 2014 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Atlanta Region 16 Year History
Annual Construction Starts and Closings
60,000
2Q06
Peaked
2Q06
Peaked
58,600
2Q04
53,700
55,000
50,000
45,000
2Q02
42,000
76% of activity is in North Atlanta
1Q00
35,000
40,000
35,000
Units
17,995
+17%
30,000
25,000
20,000
1Q98
27,600
15,000
16,263
+18%
10,000
5,000
0
Quarter
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
16,000
14,000
North vs. South Atlanta
Annual Starts and Closings (move-ins)
76% of the Starts activity is in North Atlanta
Starts 13,632 +13%
Closings 12,573 +15
12,000
10,000
8,000
Starts 4,329 +31%
Closings 3,676 +33%
6,000
I-20 is the boundary line
4,000
2,000
-
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
South Annual Starts
North Annual Starts
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
South Annual Closings
North Annual Closings
Annual Starts & Closings
330,000
Starts
+7%
310,000
290,000
270,000
Closings
+4%
250,000
230,000
210,000
190,000
170,000
150,000
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
Annual Starts and Closings by Market
Houston
Dallas/Ft.Worth
#3
Atlanta
Central Florida
Southern California
Denver/Colorado Springs
Northern California
Austin
Phoenix/Tucson
Suburban Maryland
Charlotte
South Florida Condo
San Antonio
Philadelphia Region
Raleigh/Durham
Seattle
Salt Lake City
Central California
Northern Virginia
Las Vegas
South Florida
Nashville
Tampa
Chicago
Jacksonville
Twin Cities
Portland
Indianapolis
Naples/Ft.Myers
Sarasota/Bradenton
N Jersey-NY Suburbs
Boise
NC Triad
San Diego
Reno
Rio Grande Valley
Albuquerque
St.George/Mesquite
Naples Condo
Sarasota Condo
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
NORTH ATLANTA ANNUAL CLOSINGS
13%
3,000
2,725
SFD and TH
3%
2,450
2,175
0%
1,900
1,625
-6%
1,350
13%
1,075
33%
800
111%
24%
75%
11%
Jackson
250
25%
Bartow
525
171%
-25
Annual Closings 2Q15
Dawson
Barrow
Hall
Paulding
Dekalb
Cobb
Gwinnett
Forsyth
Cherokee
Fulton (North)
2Q15
• Why the decline in North Fulton?
– Lot supply declined down to year 2000 levels.
– Just recently back to 2005 levels today
– Home prices are at all time highs
4,500
160
4,000
140
3,500
120
3,000
100
2,500
80
2,000
60
1,500
40
1,000
20
500
0
0
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
VDL Inv
SOUTH ATLANTA ANNUAL CLOSINGS
53%
850
24%
750
4%
650
550
-4%
450
350
143%
17%
250
169%
68%
150
57%
11%
-65%
50
Carroll
Spalding
Walton
Newton
Coweta
Rockdale
Henry
Fulton (South)
Fayette
Douglas
2Q15
Clayton
-50
• Emerging Markets (poised for growth)
ATLANTA INVENTORY AND MONTHS SUPPLY
Months supply is a good indicator of the health of a market but finished and vacant months supply is best
Builders still have a shortage of supply in highly desirable areas, but
inventories are larger in other areas
20,000
13.0
12.0
16,000
11.0
12,000
10.0
Normal was about 9 months
9.0
8,000
8.0
4,000
7.0
-
6.0
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
Townhome and Single Family Detached
3Q13
Under Construction
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
Finished Vacant
Housing MOS
Housing Inventory & Months of Supply
300,000
11.0
10.0
200,000
9.0
150,000
8.0
Months of Supply
Units of Inventory
250,000
100,000
7.0
50,000
0
6.0
Finished Vacant
Under Construction
Housing Months
Atlanta New Home Closings
Quarterly Price Trends
2Q Median New Home Price is $270,000
Median size = 2872 SF or $89 PSF
Source: Metrosearch Property Analysis
Run for new only.
What’s available?
Do we have Lots to talk about.
Vacant Developed Lots
Lots Delivered and Absorption
Past 3 Years
• 2Q13 YOY = 1,400
• 2Q14 YOY = 3,900
• 2Q15 YOY = 9,900
• TOTAL New VDL’s = 15,200
delivered in past 3 years
• Construction Starts Past 3 years
• = 44,446
• Net Absorption of finished lots = 29,246
6,000
5,500
ATLANTA LOT DELIVERIES
Compared to Starts
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Quarterly Starts
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
Lot Delivery
65% of new lot deliveries have been
in the Golden Triangle region
(looks more like a Diamond to me)
This region has a 34% market share of annual starts
11% market share of finished lots (VDL’s)
23 month supply of finished lots (lowest since 2007)
2.4 months supply of finished houses (vs. 2.7 for all of Atl)
22 county region
TH and SFD
ATLANTA’S FINISHED LOTS
160,000
87% are single family lots
Down 7% year over year
140,000
110,393
120,000
100,000
55% are in North Atlanta
80,000
60,000
40,000
17,995
20,000
-
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
VDL Inventory
Annual Starts
ATLANTA LOTS - MONTHS SUPPLY
150,000
400.0
140,000
360.0
130,000
320.0
120,000
280.0
240.0
110,000
200.0
100,000
160.0
90,000
120.0
80,000
70,000
80.0
Decline has slowed
74
40.0
60,000
0.0
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
VDL Inventory
Finished – Vacant Developed Lots
VDL MOS
VDL Months Supply by County
Includes townhome lots
Months/Years of Supply of VDL's at
current absorption pace. Irrelevant due
to lots being held by various groups
+++
2Q15
#6 Post Brook Farms
109 Starts 73 closed
#7 Laurel Canyon
#10 Harmony on the Lake
92 Starts 82 closed
#4 Shiloh Woods
#3 Lake Lanier/Cresswind
#2 Mundy Mill
#9 Deerfield Green TH
94 Starts 74 closed
#12 Sterling on the Lake
89 Starts 72 closings
#8 Centennial Lake
98 Starts 86 closings
#11 Bridleton South
90 Starts 57 closed
#1 Seven Hills
Top ATL Communities in 2Q15
Ranked by Annual Starts
#5 Sun City Peachtree
43
ATLANTA TOP COMMUNITIES
RANKED BY CLOSINGS
2Q15
Subdivision N a me
Market Area
Price Range
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
VD L's
Future s
1
Se ve n H ills
Paulding
$144-$500
179
170
368
763
2
La ke La nie r/Cre sswind
Hall
$186-$401
128
136
116
115
3
Shiloh W oods
Forsyth
$210-$333
121
130
0
0
4
La ure l Ca nyon
Cherokee
$168-$800
108
116
188
481
5
Mundy Mill
Hall
$130-$271
132
111
323
502
6
Sun City Pe a chtre e
Spalding
$131-$256
118
106
99
2421
7
Ja me stown
Forsyth
$200-$413
39
101
0
0
8
D e a ton Cre e k/Villa ge
Hall
$184-$382
78
98
26
0
9
Bridge towne
Forsyth
$110-$290
66
97
50
38
10
Oa kle y T ownship
Fulton (South)
$129-$251
75
91
25
0
11
Story Fa rms(T H )
Gwinnett
$175-$200
44
87
0
0
12
Ce nte nnia l La ke
Cherokee
$130-$482
98
86
164
306
13
Be tha ny Crossing FO
Forsyth
$372-$442
60
83
0
0
14
H a rmony on the La ke s
Cherokee
$149-$545
92
82
158
66
15
Avonda le , T owne s(T H )
Gwinnett
$142-$159
46
77
0
0
Location of subs with highest start counts
Atlanta Lender Activity
Top Mortgage Lenders (Purchase Loans)
This report is in the Property Analysis system. Go to reports, Property Summary, select Lender and Loan Summary, sort by number of loans
Atlanta Region: 2Q15
Top Ten Builders Market Share of Annual Closings
2009 market
2010 market
2011 market
2012 market
2013 market
2014 market
share was 22%
share was 28%
share was 35%
share was 39%
share was 39%
share was 41%
Pulte Home Corp
3.6%
Century/old
Peachtree Comm
6.9%
All
Other
Builders
58%
Top Ten
Builders
42%
Wilson Parker
3.1%
Ashton Woods
3.1%
Ryland Homes
3.1%
Lennar
3.0%
D.R Horton/old Crown
12.2%
Smith Douglas
3.0%
Top 25 Builders market share was 57%
All Production Builders market share was 74%
Taylor Morrison/JEH
Homes
2.1%
Rocklyn Homes
1.9.%
Total Annual Closings as of 2Q 2015 = 16,263
Conclusions
The definition of “entry level” is being re-defined (to a higher price point)
Builders need to address the lower end or risk losing millennials to long-term renting
Builders still have a shortage of supply in highly desirable areas but higher priced
home sales have slowed (new and resale)
Condos will make a comeback
Price increases in places like Cobb will push more demand into places like Paulding
Lot shortage will push building to take place into the exurbs
Georgia will see the population increase as people in the North East States
sell their homes and move here for jobs, lower cost of living and retirement
The housing market is still recovering but its moving…
Full Steam Ahead
Proud supporter of
Eugene James Director
404-567-5045
[email protected]
Connect on LinkedIn
…now you know

Closings - Atlanta Area Chapter

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