LRGV Improvements (AEPSC RPG 20150515)
Transcription
LRGV Improvements (AEPSC RPG 20150515)
LRGV Area Transmission Improvements ERCOT Regional Planning Group May 19th, 2015 (Prepared by AEPSC) LRGV Highlights ~890 MW Existing 1.3 GW Potential AJO (345 KV) Internal Valley Constraints NORTH EDINBURG Los Vientos I/II & RedFish (600 MW) HEC (458 MW) MVEC (670 MW) RIO HONDO Frontera (524 MW) Railroad HVDC Tie (+/- 300 MW) Silas Ray (104 MW) 2 Study Drivers (1 of 2) • Revised NERC TPL Standards o Assessments Begin in 2015 o Enforcement Begins in January, 2021 o TPL-001-4 Performance Requirement P3 Includes G-1, G-1 • G-1: MVEC Combined Cycle Plant (678 MW) + • G-1: HEC Combined Cycle Plant (463 MW) o Non-Consequential Load Loss from P3 Event Must Not Exceed 75 MW • Eliminates Usage of LRGV Under Voltage Load Shed (UVLS) Plan • Loss of Local Generation o Frontera is Exiting from the ERCOT Market to the Mexico Market o Loss of 524 MW of LRGV Generation by Mid-2016 3 Study Drivers (2 of 2) • Stability Limitations for Coastal (Ajo) Area Wind o ~890 MW Wind (Available or in Final Stages of Construction) o Wind Export Limitations: • 580 MW (N-1 Conditions) • 305 MW (N-1-1 Conditions) o Additional Wind Under Study o Existing SSCI Exposure • Recent LRGV Load Shed Events o February 2011 Load Shed Event (~300 MW) o October 2014 Load Shed Event (~150 MW) • G-1, G-1 Events • Sustained High Rate of LRGV Load Growth 4 Study Prep and Objective • Case Preparation Aligns with ERCOT’s 2014 Assessments o Study Case: DWG 2018 Summer Peak Flat Start Case o Case Updates: Alignment with Latest SSWG Cases • Planned LRGV 345 kV System Improvements Included o Frontera Plant: Unavailable o LRGV Conventional Generation Dispatched at Full Output o Wind Dispatch: 10% o Railroad DC Tie: Neutral o Voltage Schedule and Reactive Devices Set for High Pre-Disturbance LRGV Voltage Profile • Study Objective(s) o Identify LRGV Load Serving Capability for Existing System (Need Date Assessment) o Compare Transmission Investment Value of ‘Layers’ of Potential Solutions • MW/$M Basis o Evaluate Alternative Source Location Solutions o Ajo Area Wind Sensitivity: • Evaluate incremental cost and capability of LRGV transmission plan to mitigate stability limitations and SSCI concerns impacting Ajo Area Wind o Future Generation Sensitivities: • Identify Impact of Future Generation with IAs, but NOT Other PG Section 6.9 Criteria • Quantify Generation Export Limitations for Existing System Under Light Load Conditions o “RECOMMEND A LONG-TERM TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLAN THAT WILL SUPPORT LRGV LOAD LEVELS WELL BEYOND THE 10 YR PLANNING HORIZON” 5 Study Methodology • LRGV ‘Study Area’ Comprised of Zones along with Interface o o LRGV Load Busses Defined by Zones 610, 615, 800, 829, 875, and 876 LRGV Interface Composed of 3 - 345 kV lines and 3 - 138 kV lines • Analyze Impact of Incremental Increases in LRGV Load o o o o Increase LRGV Load in 100 MW Increments, Reapplying Contingency Conditions Scale LRGV Load Using Constant P/Q Ratio Capture Contingency Conditions and Corresponding Max LRGV Load Resulting in Acceptable System Conditions (i.e. Identify the Limit) Apply Analysis Methodology to Existing System and System with Alternative Solutions • Quantify Results in Terms of ‘LRGV Load Serving Capability’ o Enables Extrapolation of System Limits to Point-in-Time via Load Forecast Overlay • Use NERC TPL-001-4 Criteria During Study Analysis o Study Focuses on Long-Term LRGV Plan (Post 2021 Enforcement of TPL-001-4) o Operation of UVLS Scheme is Not Acceptable o Contingencies Tested Include: G-1+G-1, N-1-1, N-1+G-1, and G-1+N-1 • Assume G-1, G-1 to be Loss of Entire Combined Cycle Plants 6 LRGV 50/50 Load Forecast 2,424 2,599 2,552 2,621 2,522 2,598 2,482 2,502 2,374 2,467 2,334 2,288 2,382 2,261 2,300 2,330 2,400 2,428 2,500 2,530 2,600 2,458 2,700 2,568 50/50 Summer Peak Forecast: 2,568 MW 2,642 50/50 Winter Peak Forecast: 2,482 MW 2,800 2,675 Winter Peak MW 2,569 Summer Peak MW 2,200 2,100 2,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 7 LRGV 90/10 Load Forecast 2,771 3,014 2,737 2,993 2,715 2,958 2,691 2,911 2,660 2,883 3,049 90/10 Winter Peak Forecast: 2,911MW Winter Peak MW 2,621 2,843 2,592 2,784 2,556 2,737 2,516 2,468 2,414 2,652 3,000 2,684 90/10 Summer Peak Forecast: 2,660 MW 3,500 2,500 Summer Peak MW 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 8 Existing System Results • Existing Transmission System Can Support ~2,200 MW of LRGV Load o Most Limiting Contingency: • G-1+G-1 Loss of MVEC and HEC Plants o System Limitation: • Post Contingency Voltages in LRGV Fall Below 0.90 Per Unit UVLS Threshold o AEP’s LRGV 50/50 Peak Load Forecast for Year 2021: • Summer Peak: 2,598 MW / Winter: 2,482 MW o AEP’s LRGV 90/10 Peak Load Forecast for Year 2021: • Winter Peak: 2,911 / Summer: 2,660 MW • Additional Facilities Required By Jan. 2021 o Existing LRGV UVLS Scheme May Shed Up To 30% LRGV Load and…. o Is a Clear Violation of 75 MW Non-Consequential Load Loss Limit Imposed by NERC TPL-001-4 Requirement “P3” for G-1+G-1 Conditions o Improvements are Required to Maintain NERC Compliance 9 LRGV Historical Load 10 AEP’s Breakthrough Overhead Line Design (BOLDSM) BOLD Line Advantages: Lower Impedance Eliminates Need for Series Compensation No Added SSR/SSCI Risk to Area Generation Mitigates Operational and P&C Complexities Associated with Series Compensated Lines Increased Capacity Comparable Cost to Traditional Series Compensated 345 kV Transmission *AEP Awarded Two Patents by U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (Third Patent Pending) 11 Solution Options Evaluated (A) (A) New Ajo – Caballo 345 kV BOLDSM Transmission Lines • Add two (2) new 345 kV terminals at existing Ajo Station. • Construct a new 345 kV switching station (“Caballo”) near the existing Lon Hill North Edinburg 345 kV line ~13 miles west of the Ajo Substation. • Construct two new 345 kV dbl-ckt capable, one ckt strung, transmission lines from existing Ajo Station to the new “Caballo” Station utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on BOLD lattice steel towers. • Estimated Cost: $93.6 M Caballo Ajo – Caballo 345 kV (Ckts 1 & 2) Ajo Zorillo / Gulf Wind 12 Solution Options Evaluated (B) San Miguel (B) San Miguel – Lobo – North Ed. 345 kV 2nd Ckt with Series Comp. San Miguel – Lobo (Ckt #2) Lobo Cenizo/ Molina Lobo – Cenizo – Del Sol – North Edinburg (Ckt #2) • New 345 kV terminals at San Miguel, Lobo (2), Cenizo (2), Del Sol (2) and North Edinburg. • Install 24 ohm series capacitor at Cenizo with bypass switching. • Install 24 ohm series capacitor at Del Sol with bypass switching. • String 2nd Ckt on existing dbl-ckt capable structures from San Miguel to Lobo, and Cenizo to Del Sol to North Edinburg (~235 miles) utilizing 2 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor. • Convert Lobo to Molina 138 kV line to 345 kV operation. • Install two (2) 675 MVA, 345/138 kV autos tying the Cenizo 345 kV and Molina 138 kV stations. • Estimated Cost: $293.8 M Del Sol North Ed. 13 Solution Options Evaluated (C) Sarita/Penascal Ajo Zorillo / Gulf Wind Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV (BOLD) North Edinburg NSUBXING 345/138 kV Rio Hondo S. Santa Rosa (C) New Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Transmission Line • Add a new 345 kV terminal at the existing Ajo Station. • Construct a new 345/138 kV station (“NSUBXING”) west of the Rio Hondo Station at a point near the crossing of the east-west dbl-ckt North Edinburg to Rio Hondo 345 kV and Rio Hondo to South Santa Rosa 138 kV lines and the northsouth Raymondville to Harlingen 69kV transmission lines. Cut-in the existing North Edinburg to Rio Hondo 345 kV and Rio Hondo to South Santa Rosa 138 kV lines. Terminate the proposed 345 kV BOLD line from Ajo. Install two (2) 675MVA, 345/138 kV autos. • Construct a new 345 kV BOLD transmission line from Ajo to NSUBXING utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on dbl-ckt capable BOLD lattice steel structures. • Estimated Cost: $234.8 M 14 Solution Options Evaluated (D) NSUBLH Lon Hill (D) New NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV BOLD Transmission Line NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV (BOLD) Ajo • Add a new 345 kV terminal at the existing Ajo Station. • Construct a new 345 kV switching station (“NSUBLH”) ~1.5 miles west of the existing Lon Hill Station, bisecting the Lon Hill to Coleto Creek and Lon Hill to STEC Pawnee 345 kV transmission lines with cut-ins to the new “NSUBLH” Station. Include a 345 kV terminal for the proposed BOLD line to Ajo. • Construct a new 345 kV BOLD line from the new NSUBLH Station to the existing Ajo Station utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on dbl-ckt capable BOLD lattice steel structures. • Estimated Cost: $218.1 M Sarita/Penascal Zorillo/Gulf Wind 15 Solution Options Evaluated (E) NSUBLH Lon Hill • Construct a new 345 kV switching station (“NSUBLH”) as introduced with Option “D”. Include a 345 kV terminal for the proposed BOLD line to NSUBXING, instead of Ajo. • Construct a new 345/138 kV station (“NSUBXING”) as introduced with Option “C”. Include a 345 kV terminal for the proposed BOLD line to NSUBLH, instead of Ajo. • Construct a new 345 kV BOLD transmission line from NSUBLH to NSUBXING utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on dbl-ckt capable BOLD lattice steel structures. • Estimated Cost: $373.2 M Ajo NSUBLH – NSUBXING 345 kV (BOLD) North Ed. (E) New NSUBLH – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Transmission Line NSUBXING 345/138 kV Rio Hondo 16 Solution Options Evaluated (F) Weslaco SVC South McAllen SVC La Palma SVC (F) Installation of Static Var Compensators (SVC’s) • Install a +600/-200 MVAR SVC at South McAllen • Install a +600/-200 MVAR SVC at La Palma • Install a +400/-100 MVAR SVC at Weslaco • Estimated Cost: $175.4 M 17 Alternate Source Option (G) Pawnee Pawnee – NSUBXING 345 kV (BOLD) New Pawnee to NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Transmission Line • Add a new 345 kV terminal at the existing Pawnee Station. • Construct a new 345/138 kV station (“NSUBXING”) as introduced with Option “C”. Include a 345 kV terminal for the proposed BOLD line to Pawnee, instead of Ajo. • Construct a new single circuit 345 kV BOLD transmission line from Pawnee to NSUBXING utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on double-circuit capable BOLD lattice steel structures. • Estimated Cost: $486.6 M Ajo NSUBXING 345/138 kV 18 Alternate Source Option (H) New San Miguel to NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Transmission Line San Miguel San Miguel – NSUBXING 345 kV (BOLD) • Add new 345 kV terminal at the existing San Miguel Station. • Construct a new 345/138 kV station (“NSUBXING”) as introduced with Option “C”. Include a 345 kV terminal for the proposed BOLD line to San Miguel, instead of Ajo. • Construct a new single circuit 345 kV BOLD transmission line from San Miguel to NSUBXING utilizing 3 x 954 ACSR (Cardinal) conductor on double-circuit capable BOLD lattice steel structures. • Estimated Cost: $487.7 M Ajo NSUBXING 345/138 kV 19 Initial Observations • No Single Option Presented Above Yielded any Significant Increase in LRGV Load Serving Value • Two Existing System Limitations Impacting LRGV o Broad LRGV Steady-State Low Voltage (2200 MW) • Add SVCs o Next System Limitation: Angular Stability for LRGV Import Conditions (2300 MW) • Add New Transmission Paths • Combinations of Options Presented Above Yielded Greatest Increases in LRGV Load Serving Value: o LRGV Reactive Support: Bolsters LRGV Voltage Profile o New 345 kV BOLD Line: Improves Angular Stability 20 Option Performance Comparison of Top Performing Improvement Options Option Incremental Load Served (MW) Limiting Contingency Limiting System Condition Estimated Cost ($M) Load Serving Value (MW/$M) E+F 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $556.2(LC1) 2.3 C+D+E+F 1500 HEC+MVEC Voltage $695.0(LC7) 2.2 A+D+E+F 1500 HEC+MVEC Voltage $693.0(LC6) 2.2 C+D+F 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $621.5(LC2) 2.1 D+E+F 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $632.5(LC3) 2.1 A+E+F 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $649.8(LC4) 2.0 A+C+D+F 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $663.1(LC5) 2.0 *Ranked According to Incremental LRGV Load Serving Value (MW/$M) Option Assignment Reference Table Contingency Reference Table Option A: Option B: Option C: Option D: Option E: Option F: Option G: Option H: MVEC = Magic Valley Combined Cycle Plant HEC = Hidalgo Combined Cycle Plant LH-NE = Lon Hill – North Edinburg 345 kV Line RH-AJ = Rio Hondo – Ajo 345 kV Line New Ajo – Caballo 345 kV (Two dbl-ckt BOLD lines) San Miguel – Lobo – North Edinburg (2nd circuit) New Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD New NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV BOLD New NSUBLH – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD SVC’s at South McAllen, Weslaco and LaPalma New Pawnee – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD New San Miguel – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD 21 Observations • Top Performing Option (*Per Investment Dollar) o E+F = Direct Corpus to Valley 345 kV BOLD Line with LRGV SVCs Increases LRGV Load Serving Capability: ~2,200 MW Increases To 3,500 MW Supports Valley Well Beyond AEP’s 10-Year Valley Forecast: 50/50 or 90/10 Lowest Cost Option Amongst Best Performers ($556.2M) Adds No New Export Paths from Ajo 22 Alternate Source Location Comparison of BOLD Transmission Line “Source” Locations Option E+F (NSUBLH) F+G (Pawnee) F+H (San Miguel) Incremental Limiting Limiting Load Served Contingency System (MW) Condition Estimated Cost ($M) Load Serving Value (MW/$M) 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $556.2 2.3 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $668.0 1.9 1300 HEC+MVEC Voltage $667.9 1.9 Incremental LRGV load serving capability is basically neutral across BOLD line source locations. E+F (NSUBLH Source) has significantly lower line miles resulting in significantly lower cost. Option Assignment Reference Table Option A: Option B: Option C: Option D: Option E: Option F: Option G: Option H: New Ajo – Caballo 345 kV (Two dbl-ckt BOLD lines) San Miguel – Lobo – North Edinburg (2nd circuit) New Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD New NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV BOLD New NSUBLH – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD SVC’s at South McAllen, Weslaco and LaPalma New Pawnee – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD New San Miguel – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD 23 Ajo Wind Export (Analysis) • Basecase: 2016 DWG HWLL o Planned (ERCOT Endorsed) LRGV 345 kV Improvements In-Service o Total Ajo Area Wind: 888 MW o LRGV Upgrade Options Presented Above Not Included in Baseline Analysis • Existing Ajo Area Wind Export Stability Limitations o N-1-1 Export Limit: 305 MW (34%) o N-1-1 Limiting Outage: Ajo – Rio Hondo & Lon Hill – Nelson Sharpe 345 kV o System Condition: Unstable Post-Contingency Voltage Oscillations • Wind Export Study Objective o Identify Best Overall Solution for Improving • LRGV Load Serving Capability • Ajo Wind Export Capability o Not Aimed at Resolving Voltage Oscillation Issue • Separate Ongoing Studies for this Specific Issue • 200 MVAR Synchronous Condenser Added to Model at Sarita • Masks the Voltage Oscillation Issue to Identify Next Limiting Condition 24 Ajo Wind Export (Results) Wind Export Capability (Existing System and Option Performance) N-1 Limit (MW) Limiting Contingency Existing System 580 Ajo-NS C+D 1,788 Ajo-NS 200 MVAR SC @ Sarita (“SC”) 1,288 Ajo-NS Control Instability 614 A+SC 2,088+ N/A N/A 1,788 C+D+SC 2,088+ N/A N/A 1,488 A+E+SC 2,088+ N/A N/A 1,788 A+C+D+SC 2,088+ N/A N/A 2,088+ Option Limiting Condition Voltage Oscillations Voltage Oscillations N-1-1 Limit (MW) 305 988 Limiting Contingency Limiting Condition Ajo-RH NS-LH Ajo-NSUBLH Ajo-NS Voltage Oscillations Voltage Oscillations Ajo-RH NS-LH Control Instability CB-LH Ajo-NS Ajo-NSUBLH Ajo-NS CB-LH Ajo-NS Control Instability Control Instability Control Instability N/A N/A Option Assignment Reference Table Contingency Reference Table “SC”: 200 MVAR Synchronous Condenser at Sarita Option A: New Ajo – Caballo 345 kV (Two dbl-ckt BOLD lines) Option C: New Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Option D: New NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV BOLD Option E: New NSUBLH – NSUBXING 345 kV BOLD Ajo-RH: Ajo – Rio Hondo 345 kV (Ajo to South) Ajo-NS: Ajo – Nelson Sharpe 345 kV (Ajo to North) NS-LH: Nelson Sharpe – Lon Hill 345 kV CB-LH: Caballo – Lon Hill 345 kV (Northern portion of 25 existing Lon Hill – North Edinburg line once bisected) Wind Export (Observations) • E+F Option (without A): Top Performer for LRGV Load o Adds No Value to Ajo Area Wind Exports o Provides No Additional Paths Out of Ajo (Wind Farms Radial to Series Cap Under N-1) • Voltage Oscillation Issue Effectively Masked by Synchronous Condenser o Next Stability Limitation, “Control Instability”, Reached at 614 MW Under N-1-1 • Options A and C+D: Add Ajo Export Paths, Increase Export Capability, Reduce SSR Risk • Option C+D+F: o Mid-Range Performer for Wind Exports per Transmission Investment Dollar; Better than Option A+E+F o Lowest Incremental Cost Option Addressing Ajo Area Wind Exports o Sufficient to Support Existing Wind (888 MW) + ~600 MW Future Wind Comparison of Ajo Area Wind Export Improvement Options Option (all with “SC”) Cost over Option E+F ($M) Increase in Capability (MW) Wind Export Value (MW/$M) A+C+D+F 107(LC3) 1,474 13.8 C+D+F 65(LC1) 874 13.4 A+E+F 94(LC2) 1,174 12.5 26 AEP Recommendation • AEPSC Recommends ERCOT Endorsement of Option C+D+F LRGV Load Serving Capability: 3,500 MW Ajo Area Wind Export Capability: >2,088 MW (N-1) / 1,488 MW (N-1-1) One of Top Performing Options in Both Analyses Lowest Cost Option Addressing Both Constraints Optimal Solution Addressing LRGV Load Serving Capability and Ajo Area Wind Exports • Estimated Cost: $621.5M 27 Recommended Solution NSUBLH D: NSUBLH – Ajo 345 kV (BOLD) Ajo C: Ajo – NSUBXING 345 kV (BOLD) F: Weslaco SVC F: South McAllen SVC NSUBXING 345/138 kV F: La Palma SVC 28 Generation Sensitivity (Valley Load Support) • Same Basecase as Original LRGV Load Serving Capability Analysis • Same LRGV Load Evaluation Methodology Employed • Generation Added to Original Basecase Analysis o Recently Executed Interconnection Agreements • Coronado Ventures La Paloma EC: 785 MW Combined Cycle Facility • STEC Red Gate: 225 MW Peaking Facility • Duke Los Vientos III, IV, V: 200 MW per phase (600 MW Total) Wind • LRGV Load Serving Impact: 2,200 MW Increased to 2,800 MW o G-1+G-1 (MVEC & HEC) Still Poses Worst Case Contingency o System Limitation is Post Contingency Low Voltages in LRGV • What if we add LRGV SVCs on Top of Local Generation??? o LRGV Load Serving Capability is Increased from 2,800 MW to 3,300 MW o Need Only West Valley (South McAllen) and Mid-Valley (Weslaco) SVCs o Above 3,300 MW: Angular Instability is Limiting Condition for N-1-1 Loss of AJ – RH & LH - NE 29 Generation Sensitivity (Valley Exports – Light Load) • Purpose: Identify Operational Limits That May Exist Under Light Load o What is the Export Limitation and Ability of Conventional LRGV Generation to Run at Full Output? • Case Preparation: o o o o o Same Case Topology as Original LRGV Load Serving Capability Analysis (*No Improvements) Added Valley Generation with Recent IAs LRGV Load: Scaled Down to ~1100 MW (~40% of Peak Load Forecast in 2021) LRGV Conventional Generation: Dispatched at Full Output LRGV Wind: Start at 10%; Incrementally Increase WFs to Export Limit • Results: Basecase LRGV System Topology Supports Exports of ~1,900 MW 1,900 MW Measured as Summation of Flows Across LRGV Transmission Interface Facilities Stability Limitation: “Unacceptable Power Swing Damping of LRGV Generation Facilities” Limiting Contingency: N-1-1 Loss of… • Lon Hill to North Edinburg 345 kV Line • Mutually Coupled Del Sol to Cenizo 345 kV and Zapata to Lopeno 138 kV Lines o North Edinburg – Rachal – Falfurrias 138 kV Line is Loaded to 109% Under These Conditions o o o o 30