3F. Traffic - laschools.org
Transcription
3F. Traffic - laschools.org
3F. Traffic 3F.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter discusses the potential impacts on transportation facilities and parking resulting from the proposed project. This analysis is based in part on the results of a traffic impact analysis conducted by Crain & Associates for the project. The complete traffic study is provided as Appendix G of this Draft EIR. 3F.2 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING 3F.2.1 Local and Regional Access The transportation facilities in the study area comprise a grid network of streets and highways. The Hollywood Freeway (US-170) provides regional access to the project site. Eastwest surface street access includes Sherman Way, Vanowen Street, Kittridge Street, Hamlin Street, Victory Boulevard, Oxnard Street and Burbank Boulevard. North-south surface street access is available via Coldwater Canyon Avenue, Whitsett Avenue, Bellingham Avenue, Laurel Canyon Boulevard, Colfax Avenue, Lankershim Boulevard, Tujunga Avenue and Vineland Avenue. These facilities are described more fully below. • The Hollywood Freeway (State Highway Route 170) is located approximately 0.1 miles west of the project site, with the nearest full interchange at Victory Boulevard. North of the project site, access to Interstate 5 can be made from the Hollywood Freeway. To the south of the project site, the Hollywood Freeway interchanges with US Highway 101 and State Highway 134. At this interchange, State Highway Route 170 becomes US Highway 101. • Sherman Way is an east-west Class II Major Highway to the north of the project site that varies between 79 to 85 feet in roadway width. Sherman Way is striped with two travel lanes in each direction at Laurel Canyon Boulevard and three travel lanes in each direction at Coldwater Canyon Avenue. Left-turn channelization is provided. On-street parking is generally available on this street. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporat ion East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-111 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic • Vanowen Street is an east-west Secondary Highway to the north of the project site. This roadway is approximately 62 to 66 feet wide, and has two travel lanes and a leftturn lane in each direction. Parking is generally permitted on Vanowen Street • Kittridge Street is an east-west facility which forms the northern boundary of the project site. Kittridge Street is controlled by a traffic signal at its intersection with Laurel Canyon Boulevard. Near the project site, one lane of travel is permitted in each direction. On-street parking is generally available on Kittridge Street. Kittridge Street is discontinuous at the Hollywood Freeway and forms a T–type intersection with Saint Clair Avenue. • Hamlin Street is an east-west collector street that runs as the southern parallel to Kittridge Street. Hamlin Street is controlled by a traffic signal at its intersection with Laurel Canyon Boulevard. Hamlin Street is also discontinuous at the Hollywood Freeway and forms a T–type intersection with Saint Clair. In the project vicinity, Hamlin Street forms the southern boundary of the project site and has one travel lane in each direction. • Victory Boulevard is an east-west Class II Major Highway that divides Valley Plaza Shopping Center into two sub-areas. This roadway is approximately 80 feet wide with two through lanes and on-street parking during the majority of the day. Parking restrictions during peak hours allows for a third travel lane with left-turn channelization. • Oxnard Street is an east-west Secondary Highway to the south of the project site that varies in roadway width between 63 to 66 feet wide in the project vicinity, and is striped with two through lanes and a left-turn lane in each direction. On-street parking is generally available except at Coldwater Canyon Avenue. Left-turn channelization is provided at major intersections. • Whitsett Avenue is a north-south Secondary Highway, located to the west of the Hollywood Freeway. Whitsett Avenue is about 63 to 69 feet in width in the vicinity of the project site and provides two travel lanes per direction, plus left-turn channelization at key intersections. Additionally, in the vicinity of the project onstreet parking is permitted on both sides of the street. • Bellingham Avenue is a north-south roadway that runs through the Valley from Sharp Avenue in Sun Valley to the north and jogs before terminating at Valleyheart Drive south of the Ventura Freeway. Bellingham Avenue ends in a cul-de-sac immediately north of the project site. It resumes as a City-designated street as a driveway through the surface parking lot in the western portion of the site and becomes a public street south of Hamlin Street. Bellingham Avenue is controlled by a traffic signal at its Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-112 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic intersection with Victory Boulevard. The facility varies from about 17 to 18 feet wide and provides two travel lanes in each direction. Parking is permissible on most sections of Bellingham Avenue. • Laurel Canyon Boulevard is a north-south designated Class II Major Highway that forms the eastern boundary of the project site. This facility varies from about 71 to 83 feet wide and provides two to three travel lanes in each direction in the vicinity of the project site, with left-turn channelization at major intersections. Laurel Canyon Boulevard also provides a striped bicycle lane in both the northbound and southbound directions, as well as on street parking. • Colfax Avenue is a north-south designated Secondary Highway located to the east of Laurel Canyon Boulevard. This facility extends northerly where it becomes Lankershim Boulevard at Victory Boulevard. At Oxnard Street, Colfax Avenue varies in width between 30 to 55 feet and provides one travel lane and left-turn channelization in each direction. At Burbank Boulevard, its width ranges from 61 to 69 feet and provides two travel lanes and left-turn channelization in each direction. Parking is allowed along some segments of Colfax Avenue. • Tujunga Avenue is a north-south Secondary Highway located east of the project site. This facility varies in width between 46 to 63 feet. Tujunga Avenue generally provides two travel lanes in each direction, except at Burbank Boulevard where it is striped for one lane per direction. Parking is permissible on Tujunga Avenue. • Lankershim Boulevard is a north-south Class II Major Highway located east of the project site. South of Victory Boulevard, this facility extends southeasterly to Cahuenga Boulevard in the City of Los Angeles where it becomes a local street. In the project vicinity, the roadway measures 70 feet or more in width, and is striped with two lanes in each direction. Left-turn channelization is also provided on the street. Parking is permissible on most sections of Lankershim Boulevard. 3F.2.2 Existing Area Traffic Conditions Crain & Associates, in association with City of Los Angeles Department of Transportation (LADOT) staff, identified six intersections in the project vicinity to be analyzed with regard to the potential traffic impact of the project. These intersections include the following: • Vanowen Street and Laurel Canyon Boulevard • Kittridge Street and Laurel Canyon Boulevard Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-113 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic • Hamlin Street and Laurel Canyon Boulevard • Victory Boulevard and Bellingham Avenue • Victory Boulevard and Laurel Canyon Boulevard • Victory Boulevard and Colfax Avenue/Lankershim Boulevard These intersections surround the project site or are on routes to the school (as determined by the projected attendance area), and as such, are the intersections most likely to be directly impacted by traffic generated by the project. The intersections are shown in Figure 3F-1 on page 3-115. Traffic count information for existing conditions was obtained from recent manual traffic volume counts conducted by Crain & Associates. In accordance with the Memorandum of Cooperation between LAUSD and LADOT, counts were conducted on December 11 through 13, 2001 for the 6:30 to 8:30 A .M. period in order to analyze the impacts of the school project for the morning peak period. Peak-hour volumes for each intersection were determined by finding the four highest consecutive 15-minute volumes for all movements combined. This procedure provides the highest existing volumes, as it is based on the peak hour for each intersection independent of other intersections. Figure 3F-2 on page 3-116 depicts the existing (2001) morning peak-hour traffic volumes at the six study intersections. Based on consultation with the LADOT, an analysis of current traffic conditions was conducted at the six study intersections that were identified as most likely to be directly impacted by traffic generated by the proposed project. Due to the early afternoon departure time for most public schools, the standard P.M. peak hour of traffic would not be affected by the project; and thus, the traffic analysis focuses on the A .M. peak hour only. The traffic counts described above were used to determine existing traffic flow conditions. Other data pertaining to intersection geometrics, on-street parking restrictions and traffic signal operations were obtained through field surveys of the study locations. The traffic analysis was then performed through the use of the Critical Movement Analysis (CMA) technique. The CMA methodology used for the analysis and evaluation of traffic conditions at each study intersection is based on procedures outlined in Circular Number 212 of the Transportation Research Board.70 In the discussion of the CMA method for signalized intersections, procedures 70 Interim Materials on Highway Capacity, Circular Number 212, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1980. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-114 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 12/27/01 Figure 3F-1 Study Intersections PROJECT SITE N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 12/28/01 Figure 3F-2 Existing (2001) Traffic Volumes AM Peak Hour 3F. Traffic have been developed for grading the operational quality of an intersection in terms of the "Level of Service" (LOS) that describes different traffic flow characteristics. LOS A to C operates quite well. LOS D typically is the level for which a metropolitan area street system is designed. LOS E represents volumes at or near the capacity of the street that might result in stoppages of momentary duration and fairly unstable flow. LOS F occurs when a facility is overloaded and is characterized by stop-and-go traffic with stoppages of long duration. A determination of the LOS at an intersection, where traffic volumes are known or have been projected, can be obtained through a summation of the critical movement volumes, which are the highest combination of conflicting movements that must be accommodated at the intersection. Once the sum of critical movement volumes has been obtained, the values in Table 3F-1 on page 3-118 can be used to determine the applicable LOS. "Capacity" represents the maximum volume of vehicles in the critical lanes that has a reasonable expectation of passing through an intersection in one hour, under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions. For planning purposes, capacity equates to the maximum value of LOS E, as indicated in Table 3F-1 on page 3-118. The CMA values used in this study were calculated by dividing the sum of critical movement volumes by the appropriate capacity value for the type of signal control present or proposed at the study intersections. The LOS values are defined as a range of CMA values and shown in Table 3F-2 on page 3-119. By applying this analysis procedure to the study intersections, the CMA value and the corresponding LOS for existing traffic conditions were calculated. Those values for existing (2001) A .M. peak hour conditions are shown in Table 3F-3 on page 3-119. 3F.2.3 Public Transit The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), with its extensive network of bus routes throughout Los Angeles County, is the primary service provider in the San Fernando Valley and has several routes that serve the project area. The Metro Red Line, having been recently extended to include a station in North Hollywood, provides regional access to the project site. In addition, the Metrolink also has a Ventura County Line that serves the San Fernando Valley area. Described below are the public bus routes that operate within close proximity to the project site. Most of these routes provide regional access to the project site and could be used by employees, students, or visitors to the school site. • The Metro Red Line has recently been expanded to include a North Hollywood Station at Lankershim Boulevard and Chandler Boulevard. From the project site, the Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-117 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Table 3F-1 CRITICAL MOVEMENT VOLUME RANGES FOR DETERMINING LEVELS OF SERVICE Maximum Sum of Critical Volumes (vph) LOS Two Phase 900 1,050 1,200 1,350 1,500 A B C D E F Three Phase 855 1,000 1,140 1,275 1,425 Not Applicable Four or More Phases 825 965 1,100 1,225 1,375 Notes 1. For planning applications only (i.e., not appropriate for operations and design applications). 2. Computerized traffic signal coordination systems, such as the Adaptive Traffic Control System (ATCS), increase these values by approximately 10 percent. Source: Crain & Associates, January 2002. North Hollywood Station can be easily reached via MTA Line 426. The Red Line connects the North Hollywood Station to the Union Station in Downtown Los Angeles where additional transfers can be made to other parts of the Greater Los Angeles area. Metro stations along the Red Line are located along Hollywood Boulevard, Vermont Avenue and Wilshire Boulevard. Transfer to the Blue Line is also available at the 7th Street/Metro Center Station in Downtown Los Angeles. • Metrolink’s Ventura County Line, the commuter rail service operated by the Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA), has a Ventura County Line that serves the project study area. This Commuter rail service operates weekdays, and provides peak period service between the Moorpark Station in Ventura County and Union Station in Downtown Los Angeles. The Ventura Line serves the Burbank-Glendale Pasadena Airport Metrolink Station and, when used in conjunction with one of several MTA bus routes, serves the study area as well. The Ventura County Commuter Rail Line currently provides eastbound service to Los Angeles in the morning, and westbound service to Ventura in the afternoon. • MTA Route 426 provides peak period service between the Chatsworth area and the Wilshire/Western Red Line Station in the Mid-Wilshire District of Los Angeles. Passengers may board or disembark at any designated Route 426 stop from Chatsworth through Hollywood. In the vicinity of the project site, this route operates along Victory Boulevard and Laurel Canyon Boulevard. Weekday service in the eastbound and westbound direction accesses the project site area from 5:50 A .M. until 8:30 A .M. and then again from 3:38 P.M. until 4:48 P.M. with 15 minute headways Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-118 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Table 3F-2 LEVEL OF SERVICE AS A FUNCTION OF CMA VALUES LOS A B C Description of Operating Characteristics Uncongested operations; all vehicles clear in a single cycle. Same as above. Light congestion; occasional backups on critical approaches. Congestion on critical approaches, but intersection functional. Vehicles required to wait through more than one cycle during short peaks. No long-standing lines formed. Severe congestion with some long-standing lines on critical approaches. Blockage of intersection may occur if traffic signal does not provide for protected turning movements. Forced flow with stoppages of long duration. D E F Range of CMA Values <0.60 >0.60<0.70 >0.70<0.80 >0.80<0.90 >0.90<1.00 >1.00 Source: Crain & Associates, January 2002. Table 3F-3 CRITICAL MOVEMENT ANALYSIS SUMMARY EXISTING (2001) TRAFFIC CONDITIONS A.M. PEAK HOUR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Intersection Vanowen Street & Laurel Canyon Boulevard Kittridge Street & Laurel Canyon Boulevard Hamlin Street & Laurel Canyon Boulevard Victory Boulevard & Bellingham Avenue Victory Boulevard & Laurel Canyon Boulevard Victory Boulevard & Colfax Avenue/Lankershim Boulevard CMA 0.750 0.365 0.361 0.358 0.623 0.663 LOS C A A A B B Source: Crain & Associates, January 2002. throughout the day. Service southbound and northbound access the area from 8:20 A .M . until 9:15 A .M . and then resumes at 4:28 P.M . through 6:45 P.M .. Service is limited and passengers will only be received and discharged at specific bus stops. • MTA Line 164 primarily travels along Victory Boulevard between Hidden Hills and Burbank, and directly serves the project site near Laurel Canyon Boulevard. Weekday service in the eastbound direction operates from about 6:00 A .M. to 11:15 P.M ., and provides 25-minute headways throughout most of the day. Weekday service in the westbound direction operates from about 5:15 A .M. to 11:00 P.M., and provides 20-minute headways throughout most of the day. Line 164 also operates weekends and holidays. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-119 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic • MTA Line 165 primarily travels along Vanowen Street with a bus stop located on Vanowen Avenue at Laurel Canyon Boulevard. MTA Line 165 provides local bus service from Hidden Hills from the west to the Burbank Regional Transportation Center to the east. Weekday service in the eastbound direction is provided from about 5:45 A .M. to 8:00 P.M., with 20 to 30 minute headways. Weekday service in the westbound direction is provided from about 5:00 A .M. to 8:00 P.M. with 20 to 30 minute headways throughout most of the day. Line 165 also operates on the weekends and holidays. In addition to serving the project site, the above bus routes provide the opportunity to connect with the Metro Red Line subway system or the Metrolink commuter rail system. Both systems are key linkages to Downtown Los Angeles’ Union Station, the regional bus and rail transit hub. When transfer opportunities are considered, many areas within the Los Angeles region are linked via public transit to the project vicinity. Thus, some of the vehicle trips generated by the project, especially by employees, middle school students, and visitors to the campus could be reduced by the utilization of public transportation. However, for purposes of determining project impacts (as discussed in a later section), a worst-case assumption was made that middle school trips would be auto-oriented. 3F.2.4 Parking As shown in Figure 3F-3 on page 3-121, the project site currently contains 751 parking spaces in four parking lots, including: • Lot A: 300 spaces in the retail parking lot fronting Laurel Canyon Boulevard; • Lot B: 102 spaces in the rear retail parking lot; • Lot C: 110 spaces in the parking lot north of the Sears Auto Center; and • Lot D: 239 spaces in the parking lot at the northeast corner of Saint Claire Avenue and Hamlin Street. The parking occupancy rates for each parking lot are shown in Table 3F-4 on page 3-122. Parking lots A, B, and C currently support the parking demand for the existing onsite retail uses to be removed as part of the project. The parking demand on Lot D is generated by the Sears department store located on the block south of the project site and the use located on the northeast corner of Victory Boulevard and Saint Claire Avenue (formerly a department store, but currently operated by a large call center). The main parking lot serving this use has been recently restriped to provide 300 parking spaces, but the lot does not fully accommodate the parking demand of the department store and call center and the parking demand spills over into Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-120 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress LOT B LOT A LOT D LOT C 187 SPACES 312 SPACES LOT F LOT E 307 SPACES LOT G CALL CENTER N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates July 2002 Figure 3F-3 Parking Lot Locations 3F. Traffic Table 3F-4 SUMMARY OF PARKING LOT OCCUPANCY Lot A (300 spaces) Time a No. % WEEKDAY DATA b 7:00 a.m. 4 1% 10:00 a.m. 84 28% 12:00 p.m. 117 39% 2:00 p.m. 141 47% WEEKEND DATA c 7:00 a.m. 7 2% 10:00 a.m. 104 35% 12:00 p.m. 189 63% 2:00 p.m. 207 69% Lot B (102 spaces) No. % Lot C (110 spaces) No. % Lot D (239 spaces) No. % Total Vehicles Total % Occupancy 2 11 16 20 2% 11% 16% 20% 6 56 64 70 5% 51% 58% 64% 3 110 116 96 1% 46% 49% 40% 15 261 313 327 2% 35% 42% 44% 0 22 23 19 0% 22% 23% 19% 2 48 66 83 2% 44% 60% 75% 3 27 28 32 1% 11% 12% 13% 12 201 306 341 2% 27% 41% 45% a The parking survey examined parking occupancy rates for various time periods to account for peak demand times for different users. Specifically, the peak time for the call center (the heaviest parking user) is captured in the 7:00-8:00 A.M. time period. Weekday retail usage is covered by the 2:00-3:00 P.M. time period. The weekend analysis was conducted for representative parking levels for retail usage. b Weekday data derived from parking counts taken on Thursday, March 7, 2002. c Weekend data derived from parking counts taken on Saturday, March 9, 2002. Source: Crain & Associates, March 2002. Lot D. The maximum spillover parking demand into Lot D is 116 parking spaces. The relevant parking areas are owned and operated by the Valley Plaza Improvement Association, with use dictated by covenants or other arrangements between the property owners, for the benefit of the retail property owners and tenants of the buildings on the project site and within the center. Thus, spillover parking from one parking lot within the shopping center can be accommodated by another parking lot within the center. To the south of the site, the Valley Plaza Shopping Center consists of retail uses, including the Sears department store, and the previously mentioned call center. Site-adjacent parking for this retail area is labeled as Lots E, F, and G in Figure 3F-3. The combined number of parking spaces provided in these lots totals 801 spaces. At the time Valley Plaza was constructed, the City required 2 spaces per 1,000 square feet of retail use. The current retail site parking equates to approximately 2 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet. However, as discussed above, there is currently a spillover of approximately 116 parking spaces onto Lot D within the project site. If the Valley Plaza Shopping Center is renovated for new tenants at a future date, the City could impose current parking code requirements for the retail area. Current parking codes Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-122 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic require 4 spaces per 1,000 square feet of retail space. For example, if the Sears building were to be renovated, the City could require another 324 spaces be provided as a condition of the renovation. In spite of the typically high density of employees associated with a call center, the City continues to only require 2 spaces per 1,000 square feet for telemarketing facilities. 3F.3 APPLICABLE REGULATIONS The project is subject to the requirements of the City of Los Angeles Department of Transportation (LADOT) for issues related to local streets and access to the site from those streets. If project-related traffic would affect conditions at either of the two freeways in the project area, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) would also have jurisdiction. 3F.4 IMPACTS AND MITIGATION 3F.4.1 Methodology The analysis of traffic impacts was conducted in accordance with the Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) between LAUSD and LADOT. 71 The MOC was developed jointly by staff of LAUSD and LADOT to facilitate the review and approval of site plans and environmental documents for new schools in the City of Los Angeles. The MOC addresses the following key points: 71 • Site design issues which should be considered by project architects in designing the schools; • Standardized approach to the application of LADOT traffic impact study guidelines, including standardized trip generation for each school type; and • Consistency in the scoping and review of site plans and traffic studies in a timely manner. Memorandum of Cooperation between Los Angeles Unified School District and the City of Los Angeles Department of Transportation, June 15, 2001. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-123 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic 3F.4.2 Criteria for Determining Significance The criteria used to determine the significance of an impact are based on the model initial study checklist in Appendix G of the State CEQA Guidelines. The proposed project may result in significant impacts if it would: • Cause an increase in traffic which is substantial in relation to the existing traffic load and capacity of the street system. Using the LADOT standard, a project impact would be considered significant if any of the following conditions are met: – The vehicle to capacity (V/C) ratio increase is equal to or greater than 0.040 if final LOS is C; – V/C ratio increase is equal to or greater than 0.020 if final LOS is D; or – V/C ratio increase is equal to or greater than 0.010 if final LOS is E or F. • Exceed, either individually or cumulatively, a level of service standard established by the County Congestion Management Agency for designated roads or highways. • Substantially increase hazards due to a design feature or incompatible uses. • Result in inadequate parking capacity. 3F.4.3 Project Impacts Impact F1: Cause an increase in traffic which is substantial in relation to the existing traffic load and capacity of the street system. This is a less than significant impact with incorporation of mitigation measures. Traffic impacts on the existing street system are evaluated based on the increase in traffic from the project when added to ambient conditions. The traffic analysis presents the projectrelated traffic generation, ambient traffic conditions, and the resulting traffic conditions on the local roadway network. Project Traffic Traffic generation for the project was compared to traffic that would be generated by existing uses on the project site. The project would generate approximately 719 net trips, including 369 inbound and 350 outbound trips during the A .M. peak hour. The geographic distribution of project-generated trips was determined based on the street network, surrounding land uses, and the relative distribution of population and employment from which prospective students and employees of the project would expect to be drawn. The distribution of the student Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-124 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic population that would be served by the project was determined using data from the project’s target search area shown in Figure 2-1 in Chapter 2, Project Description. The traffic distribution pattern for project traffic is generally 34 percent to the north, 38 percent south, 16 percent to the east, and 16 percent to the west as shown in Figure 3F-4 on page 3-126 and Figure 3F-5 on page 3-127. Approximately 11 percent of the trips are north on the Hollywood Freeway and approximately nine percent of the trips are southbound on the freeway Future Traffic Conditions The North Hollywood area of the City of Los Angeles has several projects either in planning stages or under development, as shown in Table 3F-5 on page 3-128. In some cases, the development of these projects as contemplated may not proceed due to economic or other factors. Nevertheless, the analysis of future traffic conditions includes traffic that may be generated by these potential projects. Briefly, the methodology for estimating future traffic volumes is as follows: First, current traffic volumes are determined by traffic counts (as described in a preceding section). Next, a traffic growth factor of 2.0 percent compounded annually is applied to develop "baseline" volumes for the approved study year of 2005. Traffic expected to be generated by "related projects" is then added to the baseline traffic volumes to form the basis for the 2005 "Without Project" condition. Finally, project traffic, calculated previously, is analyzed as an incremental addition to the 2005 “Without Project” volumes to arrive at the 2005 "With Project" condition. The ambient traffic growth assumed for 2005 was determined by applying a growth factor of 2.0 percent compounded annually. Based on the trends in traffic growth in the Specific Plan study area, it was determined by LADOT that a 2.0 percent annual growth factor would be appropriate. This 2.0 percent growth factor was used to account for increases in traffic volume resulting from related projects that are not yet proposed or are outside of the study area. This growth factor was applied to the 2001 traffic volumes to develop an estimate of 2005 baseline volumes. In addition to this ambient growth, traffic from the related projects identified in Chapter 2, Project Description, of this Draft EIR could produce additional traffic at the study intersections. Traffic volumes expected to be generated from these related projects are summarized in Table 3F-5. To determine the 2005 "null" or non-project traffic conditions, the related projects traffic was combined with the 2001 peak hour traffic increased by the ambient growth factor. The resulting 2005 morning peak hour traffic estimates are shown in Figure 3F-6 on page 3-129. These estimates form the basis for determining project traffic impacts on the street system. Future (2005) morning peak hour traffic volumes with the proposed project traffic volumes are shown in Figure 3F-7 on page 3-130. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-125 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress PROJECT SITE LEGEND N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 3/12/02 Figure 3F-4 Project Trip Distribution PROJECT SITE N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 12/28/01 Figure 3F-5 Future (2005) Traffic Volumes Project Only Volumes AM Peak Hour 3F. Traffic Table 3F-5 RELATED PROJECTS TRIP GENERATION A.M. Peak Hour Map No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 a Description Inbound Senior Citizen Housing Comp lex Service Station w/ Convenience Market Auto Repair, Office, Auto Storage Private Elementary School Fast-Food Restaurant, Laundromat Burbank Airport Expansion Burbank Empire Center Office Light Industrial North Hollywood Development Project North Hollywood New Primary Center #4 North Hollywood New Elementary School #3 Self Storage Facility Private Elementary School, Preschool Fast-Food Restaurant, Car Wash, Convenience Mart Used Car Sales Auto Body Repair Synagogue Continued Use of Commercial Restaurant/Banquet Hall Retail w/ Multiple Residential Use Supermarket East Valley Area New High School #1A East Valley Area New High School #1B 30 44 37 36 77 368 3,250 137 526 1,135 113 114 (61) a 260 119 23 20 74 0 27 28 318 526 Outbound 54 44 29 21 81 352 1,398 19 72 372 86 80 (13) a 181 115 8 10 59 0 17 18 136 226 Total 84 88 67 57 158 720 4,648 156 598 1,507 199 194 (74) a 441 234 31 30 133 0 44 46 454 752 This related project displaces an existing use, which has higher trip generation, Thus, this related project results in a net decrease in A.M. peak hour vehicle trips compared to existing conditions. Source: Crain & Associates, July 2002. The analysis of future conditions in the study area was performed using the same Critical Movement Analysis procedures previously described in this section. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 3F-6 on page 3-131. As indicated in Table 3F-6, the project would have a significant impact on two study intersections, including: • Vanowen Street and Laurel Canyon Boulevard; and • Victory Boulevard and Colfax Avenue/Lankershim Boulevard. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-128 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress PROJECT SITE N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 12/28/01 Figure 3F-6 Future (2005) Traffic Volumes Without Project AM Peak Hour PROJECT SITE N SCALE NOT PROVIDED Source: Crain & Associates 12/28/01 Figure 3F-7 Future (2005) Traffic Volumes With Project AM Peak Hour 3F. Traffic Table 3F-6 CRITICAL MOVEMENT ANALYSIS SUMMARY FUTURE (2005) TRAFFIC CONDITIONS A.M. PEAK HOUR Intersection Vanowen St. & Laurel Canyon Bl. Kittridge St. & Laurel Canyon Bl. Hamlin St. & Laurel Canyon Bl. Victory Bl. & Bellingham Av. Victory Bl. & Laurel Canyon Bl. Victory Bl. & Colfax Av./Lankershim Bl. * Without Project CMA LOS 0.917 E 0.431 A 0.403 A 0.435 A 0.727 C 0.816 D With Project CMA LOS Impact 0.935 E +0.018* 0.507 A +0.076 0.493 A +0.090 0.445 A +0.010 0.765 C +0.038 0.866 D +0.050* Denotes significant traffic impact. Source: Crain & Associates, January 2002. Project Design Features As described in Chapter 2, Project Description and Environmental Setting, LAUSD has committed to project design features to avoid or reduce impacts. The following project design features address traffic and access: • LAUSD shall orient site access patterns so they discourage the use of local residential streets by school traffic. (LAUSD, 2001.) • LAUSD shall provide street dedications and street improvements (including any required signal) along school site frontages in accordance with City standards. (LAUSD, 2001.) Mitigation Measures F-1 LAUSD shall submit a Traffic Mitigation Plan (TMP) to the City of Los Angeles Department of Transportation (LADOT), which shall ensure that prior to the issuance of any certificate of occupancy, LAUSD shall fund the following improvements: – Vanowen Street and Laurel Canyon Boulevard: Fund a proportionate share of the cost of the design and construction of the North Hollywood Automatic Traffic Surveillance and Control (ATSAC) system/Adaptive Traffic Control Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-131 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Systems (ATCS) improvement at this intersection.72 The project’s proportionate share of the cost of the North Hollywood ATSAC/ATCS System is equal to the average ATSAC/ATCS System cost per intersection. ATSAC/ATCS improvements shall be guaranteed through a cash payment system prior occupancy of the school. – Victory Boulevard at Colfax Avenue and Lankershim Boulevard: Provide a fair-share contribution towards widening the west side of Lankershim Boulevard north of Victory Boulevard to allow for future installation of a southbound right-turn only lane on Lankershim Boulevard at Victory Boulevard. Improvements shall be guaranteed through a cash payment system prior to occupancy of the school. Residual Impacts As shown in Table 3F-7 on page 3-133, the implementation of the above mitigation measures would reduce all intersection impacts to less than significant levels. Impact F2: Exceed, either individually or cumulatively, a level of services standard established by the county congestion management agency for designated roads or highways. This is a less than significant impact. To address the increasing public concern that traffic congestion is impacting the quality of life and economic vitality of the State of California, the voters approved Proposition 111, which enacted the Congestion Management Program (CMP). The intent of the CMP is to provide the analytical basis for transportation decisions through the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) process. A countywide approach has been established by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the local CMP agency at designating a highway network that includes all state highways and principal arterials within the County and monitoring the network's LOS to implement the statutory requirements of the CMP. This monitoring of the CMP network is one of the responsibilities of local jurisdictions. If LOS standards deteriorate, then local jurisdictions must prepare a deficiency plan to be in conformance with the countywide plan. 72 The City of Los Angeles is in the process of implementing traffic signal automation to add additional capacity (without roadway widenings), reduce delay and reduce the number of stops for traffic on the City’s network of major, secondary, and collector street system. The ATSAC system utilizes a series of optimized traffic signal timings to improve flow throughout the traffic signal network. The ATCS system provides for further optimization of the traffic signal networks using state of the art sensors in the street system and adjusting the area-wide traffic signal system on a “real-time” basis. The ATSAC system has been determined to increase capacity of a street system by 7 percent, while the ATCS system adds an additional 3 percent capacity. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-132 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Table 3F-7 CRITICAL MOVEMENT ANALYSIS SUMMARY FOR SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED INTERSECTIONS WITHOUT AND WITH PROJECT, PLUS MITIGATION A.M. PEAK HOUR Intersection Vanowen St. & Laurel Canyon Bl. Victory Bl. & Colfax Av./Lankershim Bl. Without Project CMA LOS 0.917 E 0.816 D With Project CMA LOS Impact 0.935 E +0.018 0.866 D +0.050 With Project Plus Mitigation CMA LOS Impact 0.865 D -0.052 0.828 D +0.012 Source: Crain & Associates, January 2002. The traffic impact analysis (TIA) requires that all freeway segments where a project adds 150 or more trips in any direction during the peak hours be analyzed. An analysis is also required at all CMP intersections where the project will add 50 or more trips during the peak hour. For the purposes of CMP, a significant traffic impact occurs when the proposed project increases traffic demand on a CMP facility by two percent of capacity, causing or worsening LOS F. As shown previously in Figure 3F-6, only project volumes at the intersections closest to the site exceed the CMP threshold. At the nearest CMP intersection, Victory Boulevard and Woodman Avenue, which is more than two miles from the project site, it is estimated that less than 25 peak hour project trips in either peak hour would pass through this intersection. This is well below the 50-trip threshold. In addition, no more than 52 project peak-hour trips in one direction are expected to be added to any freeway mainline segment, which is significantly less than the 150-trip threshold. Therefore, no additional CMP analysis is warranted. Impacts to CMP designated roadways would be less than significant. Mitigation Measures No mitigation is required. Impact F3: Substantially increase hazards due to a design feature or incompatible uses. This is a less than significant impact with incorporation of mitigation measures. Construction Construction activity associated with the proposed project could result in temporary congestion and hazards to traffic and pedestrian safety. Construction activities, including utility connections and roadway improvements, could result in temporary lane closures and sidewalk Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-133 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic closures on local roadways, although it is not anticipated that the project would result in the complete closure of any streets. These closures could temporarily affect vehicle and pedestrian traffic in the area. A mitigation measure is recommended below to ensure the safety of vehicles and pedestrians on adjacent roadways and sidewalks due to street or sidewalk closure. Construction vehicle traffic could also result in temporary congestion, with corresponding hazards to traffic and pedestrian safety. Several truck trips would be expected to occur on a given construction day associated with hauling activities, removing demolition debris, equipment deliveries, and construction worker trips. However, construction-related trips typically occur during off-peak hours. Construction workers typically arrive at the construction site prior to the morning peak hour and depart prior to the afternoon peak hour. Construction truck traffic is generally distributed evenly across the workday. Although construction-related traffic generally occurs during off-peak hours and the effects would be temporary, a mitigation measure is recommended below to address potential impacts associated with construction vehicles. Mitigation Measures F-2 LAUSD shall prepare a pedestrian safety plan for construction subject to review and approval by LADOT. The plan shall include, but not be limited to, identification of pedestrian walkways, relocation of pedestrian facilities, and other measures to ensure the protection of pedestrians during construction. LAUSD or its general contractor shall monitor the implementation and effectiveness of the pedestrian safety plan during the construction phase of the project. F-3 LAUSD shall prepare a construction staging and parking plan for review and approval by LADOT prior to commencement of construction. LAUSD or its general contractor shall monitor the implementation and effectiveness of the construction staging and parking plan during the construction phase of the project. It is anticipated that the plan may include the following potential types of traffic-related mitigation measures, in accordance with normal LADOT policies, to ensure that disruptions to the adjacent uses and circulation within the area are minimized: – Construction and Employee Parking: Construction-related parking, including construction employee parking, would be prohibited on public streets and alleys. As part of the construction staging and parking plan, the contractor would submit and obtain approval of a construction parking program which reflects the schedule of construction activities and location of constructionrelated parking. Locations of available parking would be identified. The contractor would make necessary adjustments with the appropriate trade Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-134 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic unions to accommodate the parking requirements set forth in the construction staging and parking plan. Subcontract agreements would be written to prevent street parking and to require compliance with this measure. – Street Circulation and Parking Measures: The contractor may request and obtain a permit for any temporary lane closures that may be required for adjacent roadways. The contractor would utilize flagmen for traffic control to minimize inconvenience and for safety of vehicles and pedestrians. – Haul Truck Routes, Queue Areas, and Deliveries: The contractor would provide an estimate of truck volume and schedule. Schedule adjustments would be made to minimize the volume during peak traffic hours. Areas would be designated by LAUSD or its contractor for staging of all trucks. All earth-moving and ready-mix trucks would be equipped with two-way radios. The drivers would be linked to a traffic controller at the jobsite who would contact trucks located at the staging areas. The trucks would follow a Cityapproved route to the project site, without unnecessary waiting. The contractor would have a designated employee controlling the logistics of all deliveries. A standing rule would be enforced that no unscheduled deliveries would be accepted. All materials requiring assembly or make-up would be accommodated on-site, except for rare instances that might arise when such assembly or make-up cannot occur on-site, such as crane-boom assembly or dismantling. When feasible, materials being delivered to the site should be scheduled for the least inconvenience to the public. Timing would be subject to the approval of the City Engineer. – Hours of Excavation Hauling: Heavy truck hauling associated with excavation would be scheduled to minimize interference with daytime activity in the area. The hours for excavation hauling would be determined in conjunction with the City as part of the construction staging and parking plan. – Pedestrian Safety Measures: The contractor would install a construction fence around the perimeter, complying with City requirements before excavation begins. A flagman would be available at all times and would be utilized whenever trucks entering or leaving the project site may impede the flow of traffic. Operation The traffic study reviewed the estimated peak traffic flows on the frontage road to determine the potential for vehicle queuing impacts. The proposed frontage road along Laurel Canyon Boulevard will be approximately 500 feet in length and designed for one-way southbound traffic flow. The road will have adequate width to provide one parking lane and one travel lane. The northerly ingress point will be located south of Kittridge Street with the southerly egress point located north of Hamlin Street. The frontage road drop off and pick up Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-135 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic area will have the capacity to store approximately 20 vehicles along the westerly curb. It is estimated that the school’s peak vehicle arrival rate will be approximately 20 vehicles per minute during the beginning and end of each school day. These morning traffic flows indicate that the morning drop off period will not have queuing impacts because the average drop off time for a middle school student is much less than one minute per vehicle. Afternoon queues on the frontage road will be greater because student-loading times are longer than student drop off times, which could result in a traffic backup. A mitigation measure is recommended below to address this potential impact. In addition, the traffic study analyzed the northbound left-turn capacity from Laurel Canyon Boulevard at the frontage road ingress. The southbound conflicting flows on Laurel Canyon Boulevard during the 15-minute peak traffic period will provide adequate gaps in traffic to allow the left-turn demand from the median left-turn lane to enter the frontage road without significant queuing on Laurel Canyon Boulevard. As discussed above, Bellingham Avenue ends in a cul-de-sac immediately north of the project site. It resumes as a City-designated street which serves as a driveway through the surface parking lot in the western portion of the project site. Bellingham Avenue becomes a public street south of the project site south of its intersection with Hamlin Street. The project would require the vacation of the portion of Bellingham Avenue within the project site. As this portion of the street does not serve public traffic and does not connect to the portion of Bellingham Avenue located north of the project site, vacation of this portion of the street would not result in traffic congestion or any other substantial hazard. Similarly, a north/south City-dedicated alleyway traverses the project site between Hamlin Street and Kittridge Street. This alleyway would also need to be vacated. As this alleyway does not extend beyond Hamlin Street to the south or Kittridge Street to the north, it does not provide public access to any major roadway. Thus, vacation of the alleyway would not result in traffic congestion or any other substantial hazard. As the proposed street and alleyway vacations would not result in any traffic congestion or other hazard, impacts would be less than significant. Pedestrian access routes to the middle school are provided by fully improved streets with full-width sidewalks. Pedestrians crossing Laurel Canyon Boulevard will be able to use the two existing traffic signals adjacent to the school at Laurel Canyon Boulevard and Kittridge Street and at Laurel Canyon Boulevard and Hamlin Street. As Laurel Canyon Boulevard is designated as a Major Highway by LADOT, the LAUSD will be required to provide a plan for the safe arrival and departure of students in accordance with the Project Design Feature listed below. Furthermore, the school administration shall educate parents in how to properly follow the Plan. If deemed necessary, the school administration will coordinate with school police to enforce the drop-off, pick-up, and pedestrian safety elements of the Plan. In addition, LADOT requires implementation of the mitigation measures recommended below. There is also an existing crosswalk at Laurel Canyon Boulevard and Archwood Street that is not regulated by a traffic Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-136 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic signal. A mitigation measure is recommended below to ensure pedestrian safety at this intersection. Project Design Features As described in Chapter 2, Project Description and Environmental Setting, LAUSD has committed to project design features to avoid or reduce impacts. The following project design features address pedestrian safety: • A school site shall not be located on major arterial streets with a heavy traffic pattern, unless mitigation of traffic hazards and a plan for the safe arrival and departure of students has been provided in accordance with the “School Area Pedestrian Safety Manual” published by the California Department of Transportation, 1987 edition. CCR, Title 5, § 14010(e). The Caltrans Pedestrian Safety Manual outlines procedures to be followed in establishing school routes and crossings, including warning signs and other traffic control devices. • LAUSD shall locate schools on secondary highways or collector streets and not on major highways wherever possible, as those terms are defined by LADOT. (LAUSD, 2001.) • LAUSD shall provide adequate loading areas (drop off and pick up zones), preferably on site or on multiple sides of the school campus with curb cuts (as required), close to the school entry point(s), and avoid the need for double parking or use of across-thestreet loading. (LAUSD, 2001.) • LAUSD shall provide adequate space for bus loading and unloading with curb cuts (as required). (LAUSD, 2001.) Mitigation Measures F-4 LAUSD’s School Traffic and Safety Education Section shall coordinate with LADOT’s Citywide Traffic Control Programs Section in the preparation of a Pedestrian Safety Plan for operation of the proposed school. The plan shall include all feasible measures to ensure a high level of pedestrian safety. These measures shall include but may not necessarily be limited to: installation of traffic controls, pedestrian signal lighting, school warning and speed limit signs, school crosswalks, pavement markings, passenger loading zones and school bus loading zones, and crossing guard operations. The plan shall also include a “Pedestrian Routes to School” map for distribution to all school attendees with clear guidance on safe pedestrian access to school. Four months prior to opening the school, the plan shall be finalized. All Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-137 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic improvements shall be made to the satisfaction of LADOT prior to issuance of any certificate of occupancy. F-5 LAUSD staff shall be present during the afternoon student peak period to direct traffic flow on the frontage road, in order to maximize the utilization of the available curb space and to keep traffic flowing. F-6 LAUSD shall request that LADOT remove the marked crosswalk at Laurel Canyon Boulevard and Archwood Street. If the cross walk is not removed prior to the start of school operation, LAUSD shall assign a crossing guard for this intersection in accordance with LAUSD policies until such time that the crosswalk is removed. Residual Impacts With implementation of the mitigation measures recommended above, impacts related to access and pedestrian safety would be less than significant. Impact F4: Result in inadequate parking capacity. This is a significant and unavoidable impact. The Initial Study for the proposed project determined that the project would provide adequate parking capacity for school employees and visitors (refer to Appendix A). Approximately 144 parking spaces would be provided as part of the project, which is consistent with LAUSD practice of 2.0 spaces per classroom for secondary schools. The parking capacity would be sufficient for the projected 95 employees and anticipated visitors. Thus, parking capacity is adequate for school operations, and school-related parking impacts would be less than significant. The project would, however, remove approximately 751 existing parking spaces, which currently serve on-site retail uses and off-site uses for overflow parking. Approximately 401 of these parking spaces serve the uses on-site that are proposed for acquisition, while 350 spaces are used by nearby off-site uses including the Sears department store and a call center facility (Teletech). As discussed above in Section 3F.2.4, the current usage of the parking areas to be removed is 51 percent of total capacity (327 parking spaces) during weekdays and 54 percent of total capacity (341 parking spaces) during the weekend. The off-site call center company currently uses Lot D at the northeast corner of Saint Claire Avenue and Hamlin Street for overflow employee parking. The maximum parking demand at this lot is approximately 49 percent of the 239 spaces or 116 parking spaces. Therefore, the removal of Lot D would displace at a minimum 116 vehicles onto adjacent streets or other nearby parking lots. The loss of parking spaces and the net effect on parking supply are considered to be significant impacts. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-138 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Project Design Features As described in Chapter 2, Project Description and Environmental Setting, LAUSD has committed to project design features to avoid or reduce impacts. The following project design features address parking: • LAUSD shall provide adequate off-street parking for faculty, administration, staff, students and visitors. (LAUSD, 2001.) Mitigation Measure F-7 Prior to any restriction of use or removal of parking serving off-site uses, LAUSD shall, as part of severance damages, provide payment to the Valley Plaza Improvement Association or other property owners of the affected parking equal to the cost of providing replacement parking. Residual Impacts As LAUSD would not be able to ensure the construction of replacement parking, or when it would be constructed, a temporary or permanent loss of parking for off-site uses could result. As an alternative mitigation measure, LAUSD has considered purchasing land and constructing a parking structure to provide a sufficient number of replacement parking spaces. However, LAUSD determined that this would be infeasible due to the level of effort necessary to negotiate a fair value for the land, obtaining all required permits, and designing and constructing the parking structure. Thus, the project is considered to have a potentially significant unavoidable impact on parking supply. 3F.5 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS Cumulative effects on traffic from ambient growth and the related projects described in Chapter 2, Project Description and Environmental Setting, have been incorporated in the analysis provided above. Consequently, cumulative impacts are considered in the traffic model as indicated in Table 3F-6 “Future (2005) Without Project” conditions. Ambient growth and traffic from related projects would result in a significant decline in service at three of the analyzed intersections during the A .M. peak hour. Although the proposed project would contribute to the decline in service, implementation of the recommended mitigation measures would reduce this contribution to a less than significant level. Thus, the project contribution to cumulative traffic impacts would be less than significant. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-139 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic Parking and pedestrian safety issues have been assessed within a radius of reasonable walking distances from the project site. The only related project within a reasonable walking distance is the proposed LAUSD North Hollywood Primary Center #4 located one block north of the project site. This project would not result in the displacement of any parking areas or generate demand for off-site parking. Thus, no significant cumulative parking impact would result. Construction of the related project could result in temporary congestion and hazards to traffic and pedestrian safety through construction-related traffic and the potential closure of sidewalks for utility improvements or relocations. However, the proposed project and the nearby related project would be required to implement measures to avoid traffic congestion and safety impacts during construction as required by LADOT. In addition, the projects would also be required to implement measures to reduce impacts to pedestrian safety during operation as required by LADOT, including educating parents and students about safe drop-off, pick-up, and pedestrian practices, and enforcement of pedestrian safety rules when necessary. Thus, no significant cumulative impacts to pedestrian safety would occur. Due to the speculative nature of the potential redevelopment of the portion of Valley Plaza Shopping Center south of the project site and the absence of conceptual plans showing site access/circulation and clarifying trip generation characteristics of the proposed uses, it was not feasible to accurately or meaningfully predict the potential traffic impacts from this development program. However, the traffic analysis is based on a “worst-case” scenario that accounts for regional traffic growth and the net increase in traffic over existing conditions for those areas of Valley Plaza Shopping Center south of the project site. The cumulative traffic impacts associated with the redevelopment of Valley Plaza are assumed to fall within regional traffic growth assumptions and the applied “worst-case” scenario for the following reasons: • Not all of the related projects accounted for in the cumulative analysis will be approved and/or built. Further, it is also likely that many of the related projects will not be constructed or opened until after the proposed project had been built and occupied. • Impacts projected for related projects will likely be, or have been, subject to unspecified mitigation measures, which would reduce potential impacts. • Many related projects are expressed in terms of gross square footage or are conceptual and based on long-range plans such as master plans that assume complete development; in reality, such projects may be smaller (i.e., the net new development) because of the demolition or removal of existing land uses resulting from development of the related project. In addition, the analysis assumed a background traffic growth rate of 2 percent compounded over 4 years to account for regional traffic growth. Thus, the potential cumulative Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-140 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress 3F. Traffic traffic impact from the redevelopment of the Valley Plaza Shopping Center has been incorporated in the analysis of traffic impacts provided above. It is also acknowledged that if and when a specific proposal for redevelopment of Valley Plaza Shopping Center is formalized and pursued, a detailed analysis of traffic would be conducted during the CEQA process with significant impacts subject to all feasible mitigation measures. Los Angeles Unified School District PCR Services Corporation East Valley Area New Middle School No. 1 November 2002 Page 3-141 PRELIMINARY WORKING DRAFT – Work in Progress