ibis moussafir agadir

Transcription

A project financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark
Provision of Technical Support/Services for an
Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact
Assessment of National Regulations and Incentives for
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Country Report Morocco (DRAFT)
January 2010
Norsk-Data-Str. 1
61352 Bad Homburg, Germany
Tel: +49-6172-9460-103, Fax. +49-6172-9460-20
eMail: [email protected]
http://www.mvv-decon.com
Döppersberg 19
42103 Wuppertal, Germany
Tel: +49-202-2492-0, Fax: +49-202-2492-108
eMail: [email protected]
http://www.wupperinst.org
Table of Contents
Page
1.
Project Synopsis
1
2.
Summary of Energy Situation in Morocco
3
3.
Comparison of Moroccan Practice with International Practice in
Energy Efficiency
4
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
4.
5.
Strategy
Legal Reform
Price Reform
An Agency
Standards and /or Labels
Financial Incentives
Obligations
Audits and the Promotion of ESCOs
Transport and Spatial Planning
Dissemination of Information
4
6
7
8
9
10
12
13
13
14
Comparison of Moroccan Practice with International Practice in
Renewable Energy
15
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
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17
18
18
19
21
23
23
24
Targets and Strategy
Legal Reform
An Agency
Financial Incentives (Capital Support)
Feed-in Tariffs and Obligations
CDM Finance
Information
Industrial Policy
Case Studies
5.1
Case Study 1 - Evaluation of Policy Instruments for Private Wind Energy
Development
5.1.1 Background and Context
5.1.1.1 Promotion of Private Investment in Wind Energy in Morocco
5.1.1.2 EnergiePro
5.1.1.3 Scope of the Case Study
5.1.2 Comparison of Policy Instruments for the Promotion of Wind Power
5.1.2.1 Specification of the Alternative Policy Instruments
5.1.2.2 Methodological Approach
5.1.2.3 Result of the Comparison
5.1.3 Cost-Benefit Assessment
5.1.3.1 Methodology Applied
5.1.3.2 Data for Wind Energy
5.1.3.3 Costs for Electricity Generation using Imported Coal
5.1.3.4 Economic Assessment
5.1.3.5 Financial Assessment
5.1.4 Conclusion
5.1.4.1 Methodology
5.1.4.2 Policy Instruments for Wind
Economical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Morocco (Draft)
country-report-Morocco.doc
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Table of Contents
5.2
6.
Case Study 2 - Concentrated Solar Power
5.2.1 Background and Context
5.2.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
5.2.3 Scope of the Case Study
5.2.4 Evidence-based Policy Making
5.2.4.1 Alternative Forms of Intervention
5.2.4.2 Base Case
5.2.4.3 Impacts
5.2.4.4 Consultation
5.2.4.5 Compliance
5.2.5 Theory-based Evaluation
5.2.5.1 Methodology
5.2.5.2 Indicators
5.2.5.3 Behavioural Matrix
5.2.6 Economic Cost-Benefit Assessment
5.2.6.1 Methodology Applied
5.2.6.2 CSP - Assumptions and Data Base
5.2.6.3 Cost of Electricity Generated with Imported Coal
5.2.6.4 Comparison of Costs of Electricity Supply
5.2.6.5 Impact of Carbon Credits on "Renewable Values"
5.2.6.6 Sensitivity Test
5.2.7 Conclusion
5.2.7.1 Methodology
5.2.7.2 Substance
5.2.7.3 European Purchase of Renewable Values as a Policy Instrument
Institutional Reform in Morocco – Some Possibilities
List of Annexes
Annex 1:
Mission Report
Annex 2:
List of Stakeholders
Annex 3:
Seminar Programme
Annex 4:
Presentation on Methodology
Annex 5:
Energy Situation in Morocco
List of Figures
Figure 1:
Historical Trends in Coal Prices
Figure 2:
Forecasts of Crude Prices to 2030 (DOE/IEA)
Figure 3:
Central Forecast for Coal Prices ($2007/GJ)
Figure 4:
Comparison of Unit Costs for Wind Energy and Coal Based Electricity Generation
Figure 5:
IPP Wind - Expected Return on Investment
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Figure 6:
Wind Energy - Net Cash Flow
Figure 7:
Figure 8:
Coal Power Plant and CSP - Comparison Levelised Costs
Figure 9:
Coal-electricity and CSP - Comparison of electricity supply costs
Figure 10:
Impact of Carbon Credits - Reduction "renewable values"
Figure 11:
Development of Additional costs
Figure 12:
Renewable Values - Comparison of Scenarios
List of Tables
Table 1 Share of Total Moroccan Energy saving potential by sector
Table 2 Demand side interventions and impacts
Table 3 Residential electricity prices
Table 4 Residential electricity prices for rural consumers
Table 5 Electricity prices for HV consumers (option of annual duration)
Table 6 Supply-side measures in PNAP
Table 7 Existing wind parks in Morocco
Table 8 EnergiPro purchase tariff
Table 9 Registered CDM projects
Table 10:
Existing Wind Parks in Morocco
Table 11:
EnergiePro - Purchase Tariff
Table 12:
Behavioural Model of EnergiePro Scheme
Table 13:
Behavioural Model of Feed-in tariff (FIT) Scheme for Wind IPP
Table 14:
Risks and Flanking Policies
Table 15:
Data for Wind Energy
Table 16:
Coal Based Electricity Generation
Table 17:
General Parameter for Economic Assessment
Table 18:
Wind Energy - Economic Assessment Criteria
Table 19:
Wind Energy - Impact of Required Return on Investment (RoI) upon Unit Costs and NPV
Table 20:
Wind Energy - Economic Assessment Criteria with Carbon Credits
Table 21:
Table 22:
Electricity Prices for HV Consumers (Option of annual duration)
Table 23:
Financial Assessment - General Parameters
Table 24:
Table 25:
Financial Assessment - Results for the Base Case (Without CERs / Carbon Credits)
Table 26:
Financial Assessment - Projection of Project and Equity Cash Flow
Table 27:
Financial Assessment - Results with CERs / Carbon Credits
Table 28:
Behavioural matrix for CSP and a European Purchase Scheme for Renewable Values
Table 29:
General Parameters for the Assessment
Table 30:
Key-data for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Plant
Table 31:
CSP - Financing conditions
Table 32:
CSP - Determination of Levelised Costs
Table 33:
Coal Based Electricity Generation - Data and Assumptions
Table 34:
Coal Based Electricity Generation - Determination of Levelised Costs
Table 35:
Impact of carbon credits on "renewable values"
Table 36:
"Renewable values" - Comparison of cases
List of Acronyms
ADEREE
AFD
AMISOLE
BRT
CCGT
CDER
CDM
CER
CFL
CNG
CPA
CSP
CTF
DANIDA
DSM
DNA
EBPM
EE
EHV
EIA
EPC
ESCO
EU
FDE
g
GEF
GHG
GJ
GWh
HV
IBRD
IDA
IEA
IISD
IPP
JICA
kWh
Agence pour le développement des énergies renouvelables et l’efficacité
énergétique
Agence Francaise de Development
Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires et Eoliennes
Bus Rapid Transit
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
Centre for the Development of Renewable Energy
Clean Development Mechanism
Certified Emission Reduction
Compact Fluorescent Lamp
Compressed Natural Gas
CDM Programme Activity
Concentrated Solar Power
Clean Technology Fund
Danish International Development Agency
Demand Side Management
Designated National Authority
Evidence Based Policy Making
Energy Efficiency
Extra high voltage
Energy Information Agency
Energy Performance Contract
Energy Service Company
European Union
Fonds de développement énergétique
gram
Global Environment Fund
Green House Gas
Giga Joule
Giga Watt hours
High Voltage
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Worldbank)
International Development Agency
International Energy Agency
International Institute for Sustainable Development
Independent Power Producer
Japanese International Cooperation Agency
kilo Watt hours
LEED
LNG
LPG
LRT
LV
MED-EMIP
MED-ENEC
MEMEE
MENA
MMBTU
MEPS
MV
MW
NET PV
NGO
OCGT
OECD
ONE
PERG
PIN
PoA
PPA
PSA
RCREEE
RE
SIE
SWH
TBE
toe
UNDP
USAID
Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design
Liquefied Natural Gas
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Light Rail Transit
Low Voltage
Euro-Mediterranean Energy Market Integration Project
Euro-Med Project on Energy Efficiency in the Construction Sector
Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment
Middle East and North Africa
Million British Thermal Units
Minimum Energy Performance Standards
Medium Voltage
Megawatt
Net Present Value
Non-Governmental Organisation
open cycle gas turbine
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Office National de l'Electricité
Programme d’Electrification Rurale Globale
Project Idea Note
Programme of Activities
Power Purchase Agreement
Production Sharing Agreement
Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Société pour l’investissement en énergie
Solar Water Heater
Theory Based Evaluation
tons of oil equivalent
United Nation Development Program
United States Agency for International Development
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1.
Project Synopsis
The "Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE)" was formally established June 25, 2008 through the signing of the "Cairo Declaration of Intentions on Establishment of a
Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE)" by representatives of its
member states: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and
Yemen. The overall objective of RCREEE is, through its interventions, to achieve:
a) rapid implementation of cost-effective policies and instruments for the increased penetration of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) technologies and practices in member countries;
and
b) increased market shares of companies and plants located in MENA-countries on the markets for
technologies and services related to RE and EE in the MENA and EU regions.
For the first five years of operation, RCREEE receives financial support from the Governments of
Egypt, Germany and Denmark. The European Commission (EC) supports RCREEE through two regional programs: "MED-EMIP" and Phase II of "MED-ENEC". Member countries will contribute financially by increasingly co-financing the costs of the participation of national officials in RCREEE seminars and workshops.
The present project is the first project support to RCREEE from the Danish Government. It is part of
RCREEE's overall effort of providing member state administrations with better information and new
planning tools and processes. It supports RECREEE in the development of a website which offers access to a complete subject-ordered list of member state RE&EE laws and regulations, reviewed policy
documents, selected background and evaluation reports deemed to represent state-of-the art high
quality analytical work as well as discussion blogs on topics deemed to be of general interest for
RCREEE governments. The project has four specific objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Policy planners and policy decision makers in RCREEE member states provided with information on the economic, technical and environmental impacts of the policies and instruments used
for the promotion of RE&EE in RCREEE countries.
RE&EE policy planners and consultants from the RCREEE member states strengthened in the
application of methodologies for the execution of "evidence based policies", "theory based
evaluation", "economic analysis of policy instruments" and the "integration of climate policy
benefits in national energy planning".
Policy planners and policy makers in RCREEE member states provided with recommendations
for how the policy making process in their countries can be adjusted to improve the information
basis for decision taking by policy makers.
Policy planners and policy makers in RCREEE member states obtain an overview of how their
EE&RE technology policies compare with the efforts of other countries in the region.
The project objectives will be achieved through the following activities which are performed in each of
the ten RCREEE member countries.
•
•
•
•
•
Data collection
Five day country mission for information gathering and discussions with national stakeholders
A half-day seminar on methodology at the end of the country mission
A country report on EE and RE policy development
An information workshop on policy development for EE and RE
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In parallel and supporting the above activities, the project will gather the pertinent information on EE
and RE in each member country and make them available through the RCREEE website in an organised manner. Likewise the methodology on evidence based policy development and theory based policy evaluation will be discussed and extended in each country and their relevance and applicability will
be illustrated through case studies. On the basis of the country reports, a regional report will be prepared, which will allow policy makers and decision makers in all RCREEE member countries to see
the status of their EE and RE policies in a comprehensive regional context.
The activities are carried out by the project core team of four international experts assisted in each
country by a national specialist. The information workshop will be held by the national specialists at
the end of the project using the material and the methodological case studies developed throughout
the project.
Morocco was visited by the project team from 2 to 6 November 2009.
The following sections in this report reflect the impressions gained by the project team through the
discussions held during the course of the mission and all the information that has been available to the
team. The main purpose of this country paper is to stimulate new thought on EE and RE policy development in Morocco. We give no emphasis to a comprehensive description of the Moroccan energy
sector, but Chapter 2 summarises the main characteristics, further details are given in Annex 5. Chapters 3 and 4 compare Moroccan and international practice in the promotion of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energies respectively. Chapter 5 gives two practical case studies in the Moroccan context
for evidence based policy making and theory based evaluation, one each on a topic related to energy
efficiency and renewable energy policy. Chapter 6 finally offers some thought on institutional reform.
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2.
Summary of Energy Situation in Morocco
Morocco is a net importer of energy. In 2008 it imported about 98% of its primary energy supply to satisfy a total energy consumption of 14.7 Mtoe. Primary energy sources are petroleum products (2008:
61%) and coal (26%). The remaining energy demand was satisfied by imported electricity (7.5%) and
natural gas (3.7%), renewable energy sources covered 2.1%.
The net electricity consumption was 24 TWh, an increase of about 6% compared to 22.6 TWh in 2007.
Morocco’s electricity production is heavily based on fossil fuels with a share of 7% from renewable energy sources (hydro and wind power). Coal contributes more than 50% to electricity supply. The Moroccan power generation system as well as its transmission and distribution grid were originally exclusively operated by the state owned Office National de l’Electricité (ONE). Since 1999 efforts have
been made to liberalize the power sector. There are now several independent power producers who
provide about 60% of the total electricity demand. The installed generation capacity in 2007 totaled
5,292 MW
Morocco has significant potential for solar power generation and wind farms. There are currently (fall
2009) four wind farms operational in Morocco with a total capacity of 286 MW and an estimated annual production of about 1 TWh, which could cover about 4% of the estimated total electricity consumption in 2009.
The Moroccan government has launched the initiative “EnergiPro” which encourages companies to
cover their own electricity demand using renewable energy sources. Currently more than 250,000 rural households are equipped with solar home systems, in total 70,000 SHS were installed; the total
capacity amounts to 3 MW.
Morocco plans to have about 1,000 MW of wind power operational by 2012, the total share of renewable energies is projected to contribute 20% of the total energy consumption and 18% of the total electricity consumption. The country also aims at providing 2,000 MW capacity through concentrated solar
power (CSP) plants by 2020 on IPP basis. Some projects are already on the way, e.g. the Ouarzazate
CSP plant is intended to have a capacity of 500 MW by 2015. If Morocco’s ambitious plans were realized, the share of renewable energies of the total electricity consumption could be as high as 42% by
2020.
The long-term energy strategy of the Moroccan government aims at a 12% reduction in energy use by
2020 and 15% reduction by 2030 compared to the reference scenario based on the projected energy
demand without energy efficiency measures. Morocco’s short term energy efficiency priorities until
2012 are described in the Plan Nationale des Actions Prioritaires. They include both specific measures, such as the introduction of low energy lighting, as well as legal and structural reforms. There are
first initiatives to introduce standards and labels. Standards for solar water heaters have been defined
based on European norms. The introduction of labels will be under the responsibility of ADEREE, the
agency that will shortly be created as the successor of CDER.
The institutional framework in the field of renewable energies is well developed in Morocco. However,
this is not yet the case for energy efficiency, which was neglected in former years. This will change
with the creation of ADEREE, an agency that will be responsible for renewables as well as efficiency.
With a strong agency it seems possible to realize the ambitious plans for sustainable energy system
development.
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3.
Comparison of Moroccan Practice with International Practice in Energy Efficiency
This section attempts to compare the present status of energy efficiency with international practice.Public policy intervenes to correct market failures, in the case of energy efficiency the most common failures are: distorted energy prices, external costs, poor access to technical information, agentprincipal problems, budgetary constraints and excessive risk aversion, poor skills of investment appraisal. Policy instruments are intended to correct or compensate for these distortions.The most common among these instruments can be categorised as:
Corrective Measures
Price Reform
Institutional and legal reform
Labelling
Dissemination of information
Research, development and demonstration
Financial incentives
Support for energy service companies (ESCOs)
Compensating Measures
Standards
Mandatory measures (e.g. compulsory audits and management obligations)
Corporate agreements
Efficiency obligations
Transport and spatial planning
Normally these instruments should be combined within an overall strategy that sets out objectives and
targets and defines the combinations of instruments that are expected to achieve the targets.
The following discussion reflects this taxonomy.
3.1
Strategy
Strategy sets out objectives and targets and defines the combinations of policy instruments that are
expected to achieve the targets.
Energy supply in Morocco is dominated by imported fossil fuels; in 2006 they represented 95% of primary energy. Petroleum products make up 63% of supply, coal 28% and natural gas 4%. Less than
1% of the fossil fuel consumed in Morocco is produced in the country. The dependence on imported
fossil fuel is even greater (98%) if non-commercial energy is excluded.
As a consequence of this strong dependence, Morocco was deeply affected by the rapid increase in
prices in 2008 to unprecedented levels. The difficulties of managing these large price excursions
prompted the Government of Morocco to prepare an ambitious and comprehensive energy strategy
within which both renewable energy and energy efficiency are prominent. The strategy is based on an
analysis by McKinsey’s that is not publically available. The principal objectives are to:
• Secure and diversify energy supply
• Generalize energy access, optimise costs and preserve the environment
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• Increase the share of renewable energy and strengthen energy efficiency Develop more appropriate regulatory and institutional frameworks
• Develop appropriate financing schemes
The strategy covers supply and demand for energy and includes both short-term actions up to 2012
and long-term activities beyond that date. In due course the technical strategy will be complemented
by a strategy for institutional reform, particularly for the liberalisation and restructuring of the electricity
industry, but this reform is controversial and publication of the details has been delayed. The implementation of the strategy is accompanied by several important legal initiatives and the deployment of a
considerable fund to strengthen the energy sector; these developments are discussed below.
The demand for energy is expected to increase strongly, especially the demand for electricity. Demand for primary energy is expected to increase at 5% per annum to 2030 and within that total electricity demand will grow at 8%. The high rates of growth are attributed to the rapid economic development of the country, the modernisation of agriculture and the expansion of the tourist industry. The
supply side is mainly focused on the construction and reinforcement of the electricity network with a
strong emphasis on coal, but also sets ambitious targets for renewables that are discussed later.
The strategy sets targets for energy efficiency of a 12% reduction in energy use by 2020 and a 15%
reduction by 2030. These percentages are related to the expected energy demand at those dates in
the absence of the energy efficiency initiatives. The distribution of expected savings by sector is
shown in the Table.
Table 1 Share of Total Moroccan Energy saving potential by sector
Industry
48%
Transport
23%
Residential 19%
Tertiary
10%
The priorities for the short-term are contained within the Plan Nationale des Actions Prioritaires
(PNAP). The measures contained in the PNAP are to be implemented in the period up to 2012. It is a
comprehensive effort of government to improve energy efficiency that involves ten Ministries and
many national agencies. The lead Ministry is the Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment
(MEMEE); among the other Ministries are those responsible for transport, agriculture, industry and
commerce. The implementation of the Plan is supervised by a steering committee chaired by the
Prime Minister; MEMEE chairs the committee charged with monitoring the execution of the Plan and
eight working groups cover different topics of the Plan.
The Plan is structured around four principal axes.
• Security of supply with a diversity of sources and geographical origin
• Access to energy for all society at competitive prices
• Promotion of energy efficiency and renewable energy
• Integration into the Euro-Mediterranean markets
Specific measures envisaged by the PNAP to improve energy efficiency are listed in the Table along
1
with the expected impacts on peak demand and energy use . The shadowed components are those
for which the Government of Morocco is seeking support from the Clean Technology Programme.
1
Source: Fonds Pour les Technologies Propres: Plan d’Investissement pour Le Maroc
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Table 2 Demand side interventions and impacts
Measure
Interventions
Low energy lighting
Distribution by ONE of 15 million low energy
lamps
Distribution by private concessions of 4.4 million lamps
Distribution by municipalities of 7.7 million
lamps
A tariff structure to encourage A 20% reduction for all residential customers
energy efficiency
and local communities whose consumption is
20% less than targets
A time of day tariff for high volt- Encourage HV customers to shift load away
age customers to encourage from times of peak demand
load shifting
Optional off-peak tariff
Optional off-peak tariff for low voltage motors
National programme of energy
efficiency in buildings, industry
and transport
Daylight saving
Petroleum Products
3.2
Reduce consumption of energy by 15 % in
the targeted sectors
Programmes for each sector elaborated by
the MEMEE and the Ministries concerned
Implemented by MEMEE and CDER
st
Adoption of GMT+1 on a trial basis from 1
June 2008 to 31 August 2008
Measures to reduce the consumption of petroleum products
Modernisation of the vehicle fleet and improved control systems
Campaigns for better driving
Public transport
Obligatory labelling of energy consumption
for new vehicles
Impact
800 MW reduction
in peak demand
300 MW reduction
in peak demand
87 MW reduction in
peak demand
16 MW reduction in
peak demand
15% saving by
2020 in the targeted
sectors
100 MW reduction
in peak demand
Legal Reform
The proper implementation of energy efficiency requires an energy efficiency law that justifies the purpose of the activity, establishes a clear focus in government, assigns the responsibilities of actors, and
makes provision for an agency and specific instruments.
The following list contains the most frequently occurring provisions in such laws:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Recognising energy efficiency as an appropriate subject of legislation and regulation
Identifying and communicating in a policy document or national plan the principles of energy
efficiency policy
Identifying through technical analysis the potential for saving and prioritizing the sectors with
highest potential
Defining policy interventions to promote energy efficiency e.g. fiscal and financial incentives,
tradable certificates, and regulations
Drafting of legislation to implement policy interventions
Setting penalties for default
Creating institutional structures to promote energy efficiency
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•
•
•
•
Assigning staff in proper numbers and with proper qualifications to the institutions and ensuring adequate finance for the institutions
Drafting national programmes for short and long-term management of energy efficiency
Assigning responsibility to promote energy efficiency at national, regional and municipal levels
Monitoring and evaluating progress
There are two routes to legal innovation in Morocco. The first is by Royal Decree, which is not debated
in Parliament. The second is by a parliamentary procedure wherein draft laws are prepared by the responsible Ministry, approved by the government and then by the Council of Ministers presided by the
King and finally voted by Parliament. The Ministry of Mines and Energy defines and implements national policy for energy in general and supervises the activities of the electricity producer (ONE) and
the agency that will shortly be responsible for operations in energy efficiency (ADEREE). The Ministry
of the Interior is responsible for the technical supervision of the distribution companies; The Ministry of
Finance is also jointly responsible for the supervision of ONE and the distribution companies of electricity (regies).
The main operational player in the electricity sector is the Office national de l’Electricité (ONE); it has a
monopoly of transmission of electricity. ONE manages its own power stations and is the single buyer
of electricity from IPPs. ONE is responsible for distribution of electricity where there is no regie or private concession.
A draft law 16-09 has been adopted by the Council of Ministers that extends the mandate of CDER to
include energy efficiency. This law would replace the law 26-80 that created CDER. The new entity
would be called the Agence pour le développement des énergies renouvelables et l’efficacité énergétique (ADEREE). This law not only creates an agency with a clear mandate for energy efficiency, but
transforms CDER from a research institution into a body with defined operational responsibilities.
A law on energy efficiency is in preparation. It is expected to contain provisions for;
• Mandatory energy performance standards for buildings
• Obligatory audits for industries above a certain threshold to be established by decree
• A requirement for a energy impact analysis of all new large projects, including the possibility to
use renewable energy
The final draft has been delayed by resistance from industrial interests opposed to mandatory audits.
3.3
Price Reform
It is well established that energy demand is price sensitive, especially demand for electricity. The most
reliable results come from industrialised countries. Price reform will save large quantities of energy,
especially in the long-run and can make a substantial reduction in GHG emissions from countries with
distorted prices. Subsidies put a large strain on public accounts and weaken foreign trade balances.
They also tend to devastate the state-owned enterprises that are normally a victim of the practice.
Prices for controlled goods and services are proposed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and decided
by the interministerial committee on prices. In the case of electricity the structural modifications to tariffs are suggested in the first place by ONE.
The prices of basic consumer goods like petroleum products, sugar and wheat are subsidised through
a Compensation Fund (Caisse de Compensation) funded through the budget. The original aim was to
reduce fluctuations in prices, but it has become a permanent subsidy. The Fund is very large; the
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2010 budget has allocated to it 14 billion dirhams ($1.8 billion). The Fund is widely criticised for its
poor efficiency in targeting the poor and the government has announced its intentions to reform the
Fund better to target those in need.
Electricity prices are subsidised both directly by transfers to cover operating costs and indirectly by low
prices for fuel oil. The retail prices though are still relatively high by regional standards. The rates are
set by ministerial decree.
Table 3 Residential electricity prices
Consumption per month Price Dh/kWh
0 - 100 kWh
0,9010
101 - 200 kWh
0,9689
201 - 500 kWh
1,0541
> 500 kWh
1,4407
Rural consumers are charged through a pre-paid meter system. The customer can purchase the desired amounts via rechargeable cards. The tariffs are differentiated in a different manner, as shown in
the Table.
Table 4 Residential electricity prices for rural consumers
Power bracket
Price Dh/kWh
Power less or equal to 1 kW
1,0700
Power between 1 kW and 2 kW
1,1021
Power between 2 kW and 3 kW
1,1449
Power above 3 kW
1,3910
Business customers can choose from different tariff structures. For HV customers there is a choice between a tariff based on a subscribed capacity plus time-of-day unit charges or a tariff comprising three
price options calculated according to the annual duration of power usage. The latter tariff is shown in
the next Table.
Table 5 Electricity prices for HV consumers (option of annual duration)
Load hours
Dh/kWh
Capacity charge
Dh/kW/yr
VLU
MU
SU
1 259,57
504,26
252,13
Peak time
Full time
Off peak
0,5974
0,9517
1,2550
0,4791
0,6028
0,7011
0,4376
0,4376
0,4572
VLU : Very Long Usage (> 6000 hours): MU : Medium Usage (between 3500 and 6000 hours):SU : Short Usage
(< 3500 hours)
3.4
An Agency
Many countries have found it useful to establish a specialised institution to prepare initiatives, draft
regulations, monitor progress, ensure compliance, administer funds and perform other administrative
activities. It will not necessarily be the only institution with powers in the area. If fiscal incentives are
adopted then these will be managed through the office responsible for taxation, but there will still be a
need to confirm the technical acceptability of the investment. Compliance with standards for equipment and boilers will normally be performed by special corps of inspectors already engaged in stanEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
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dards work. The regulator would normally enforce any specific obligation on electricity networks.
Despite the need to involve existing institutions, it is often considered useful to create a specialised
agency. This agency would typically have the following responsibilities.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Developing and disseminating targeted information to specific categories of users
Organising training; liaison with universities and professional bodies
Developing energy efficiency standards
Conduct of surveys; analysis of data and maintenance of database
Conducting or managing programmes of certification and labelling
Liaising with other state institutions (e.g. Taxation offices and inspectorates)
Administering energy efficiency funds
Specifying mandatory audits; certifying and/or licensing energy auditors
Designing short-term and long-term energy efficiency programmes
Monitoring, evaluating and reporting on the implementation state activities and private initiatives
Designing and proposing new interventions as opportunities are identified
Legislation would probably be needed to establish such an agency and to specify its duties.
As noted above, a draft law has been adopted that will extend the responsibilities of the Centre for the
Development of Renewable Energy (CDER) to cover energy efficiency. The Centre is now in the process of reorganisation as the Agency for the Development of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
(ADEREE).
Under the new Law, ADEREE will be responsible to promote both renewable energy and energy efficiency. The responsibilities for energy efficiency include:
• Prepare a national plan for renewable energy and energy efficiency and submit it to the government
• Conceive and implement action plans in the domains of renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as environmental programmes linked to its activities in the sector
• Coordinate the programme of energy audits and ensure its success
• Propose to the government modifications of the incentive framework for renewable energy and
the more efficient use of energy
• Propose and put in place norms and standards for materials and equipment that consume energy
• Conceive and implement pilot projects to demonstrate the viability of new solutions for renewable energy and energy efficiency or help their adoption
3.5
The obligation on manufacturers and importers of equipment to label goods or to meet specified standards is a policy measure introduced to overcome the market failure caused by asymmetric information. Potential users of equipment, faced with a choice of designs, may not have the skills and information to understand the consequences of their choice. They may be tempted to choose low-cost equipment with high energy consumption in preference to higher price options that perform better. Manufacturers may not have an incentive to provide this information if they think that their comparative market
advantages do not include greater efficiency than competitors. Labelling and standards are not exclusive; goods can be obliged to meet a certain minimum standards and then labelled according to their
performance when it exceeds the standard. Labelling and standards both require testing facilities and
protocols; both require rigorous and competent enforcement.
- 10 -
There are no standards or labels for appliances in Morocco. The ADEREE is charged to propose and
put in place norms and standards for materials and equipment that consume energy. A UNDP/GEF
project is being developed to support this work.
Standards for buildings are an important special case because:
• The rate of new building in developing countries is far higher than anywhere else in the world
• Buildings are large consumers of energy
• Buildings last for decades and will determine energy use for a very long time
• Large improvements in the energy efficiency of buildings can be achieved at low cost
• Developers will not normally make those improvements because of various chronic market
failures
• The principal-agent dilemma is especially acute
The Law on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy provides the legal basis for defining and imposing EE building standards.
The CDER is working together with the Ministry of Habitat and professional organisations to develop a
guide for construction that will differentiate among various climatic regions of the country and will offer
to developers and architects reliable guidance. The publication of the guidelines will be accompanied
by training of professional staff and by a programme of financial incentives. Demonstration buildings
will be constructed according to these specifications and the guidelines will be revised according to
experience. The results of the work are expected in 2012 at which point it is expected that a mandatory code will be developed.
The exercise will be supported by UNDP/GEF and the Italian government. Funding will be supplied
from several Ministries. The whole has been assembled into a single GEF project (Energy Efficiency
Codes in Residential Buildings and Energy Efficiency Improvement in Commercial and Hospital Buildings in Morocco) to be managed jointly by ADEREE and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development; UNDP contribution is about $3.5 million and cofinancing from the Moroccan side is around $15
million.
The main components of the project are:
• Establishment of a National Building Code Unit and reinforcement of municipal compliance
• Sizing of the energy efficiency market
• Implementation of the Building Code
• Dissemination of standards and guidelines
• Energy efficiency investments in the public and private sector
The main financial appropriation ($13 million) is naturally for the investments.
3.6
Financial Incentives
Financial incentives can be separated into economic and fiscal incentives. Economic incentives are
aimed at encouraging investment in energy efficient equipment and processes by reducing the investment cost directly and fiscal incentives are those actions that reduce the cost indirectly through
the taxation system. Economic incentives can be further divided into investment subsidies and concessional finance. Investment subsidies change the perceived cost of an investment and concessional
finance changes the financing conditions. Fiscal incentives differ from other financial incentives in
several ways. They do not need to be funded directly; they are funded indirectly in that they represent
- 11 -
a loss of revenue to the state budget. Generally they are available to all who qualify according to the
terms of the exemption; there is no application and award process. For this reason they are sometimes preferred as being less susceptible to corruption and to political manipulation. They can be
managed through the normal tax compliance regime. In middle income countries this approach is
generally only practical with companies.
A last instrument that might be included under this heading is feed-in tariffs for cogeneration. If the
feed-in tariff is above the opportunity cost of electricity then the instrument does really constitute an incentive. The incentive is funded by other consumers of electricity unless a special compensation is
paid from the state budget to the network. If the feed-in tariff is above the marginal cost of electricity at
subsidised fuel prices, but below the opportunity cost then it is simply a regulation to correct the monopoly purchasing power of the network and the distorted fuel prices.
A large fund, known as the Fonds de développement énergétique (FDE), has been established to
support the energy sector. It arose out of proposals by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to
finance a part of the purchases of oil required by Morocco during the time of very high prices in 2008.
The government chose instead to use the money to establish a fund for the long-term strengthening of
the energy sector. The value of this fund is $1 billion dollars made of grants of $500 million from Saudi
Arabia, $300 million from the United Arab Emirates and a $200 million national contribution from the
Fund of Hassan II. The legal basis for the FDE and its operational priorities are set out in the Finance
Law 2009. The contributions from the Fund of Hassan II are constrained by the requirements that they
must generate profits that can be returned to further invest in new developments.
The application of the FDE is foreseen in two main parts. A first part (possibly one third) is used to
provide financial support and low interest loans for activities that the government judges would not be
profitable without this support. Specific applications include the rehabilitation of assets of ONE, subsidies for energy efficiency and studies for technical assistance. Many of the supporting activities will be
aimed to improve energy efficiency; much of the PNAP will be supported from this resource.
The majority of the FDE will be invested in revenue generating activities. For this purpose the government intends to create an investment company, known as the Société pour l’investissement en énergie, SIE. This company will be responsible to invest in viable energy projects that may cover both renewable and fossil technologies. Both wind parks and new coal-fired plant are likely. It is possible that
similar investments may be made in energy efficiency, but to date no specific studies of this eventuality have been made.
The Government of Morocco is seeking substantially to enlarge the FDE with money from the Clean
Technology Programme ($150 million) and from International Financial Institutions such as the IBRD
and the African Development Bank. The general idea is that each of the IFIs would extend lines of
credit between $200 and $400 millions and perhaps direct grants to selected projects.
Arrangements are in place to support autoproduction of electricity by large consumers. Developers are
permitted to establish private generation and to sell to contract with industrial consumers. The arrangements between the consumer and producer are contractually specific and normally confidential.
In most cases the consumer and producer are the same entity and located on the same site. It is legally possible that the producer is a separate company and located elsewhere; in this case the electricity can be “wheeled” between the two sites at a nominal rate specified in the legislation. Any power
produced that is surplus to the needs of the consumers can be purchased by the grid at 50% of the
high tension tariff prevailing at that time of the day.
- 12 -
3.7
Obligations
Another approach, which may be combined with incentives, is to oblige companies to undertake energy efficiency by mandatory measures. These can be multiple and include obligations to:
• To carry out audits at regular intervals
• To report to central government database and possibly to communicate audit results to the
public
• To report energy consumption, saving measures and implemented measures
• To propose action plans to implement the energy savings measures identified in audits
• To carry out certain specified measures
• To appoint an energy manager
• Mandatory certification of auditors
• Mandatory comparison of operation and investment to reference values (norms, benchmarking)
Some, or all, of these requirements may be confined to large users and made conditional on crossing
a defined threshold of energy use.
Obligations can be mandatory or voluntary. Two main sets of voluntary agreements have been introduced. The first set comprises agreements between government and representative bodies of appliance manufacturers to reach specified improvements in the performance of appliances; the approach
has also been extended to vehicles. The second set comprises agreements with individual industries
to improve their own on-site energy performance. Industry can have various motivations to participate
in these agreements. Appliance manufacturers may expect to persuade government to supplement
their efforts with instruments aimed at stimulating purchases by consumers. It may in some instances
be a mechanism to forestall regulation. This latter reason may also encourage participation in agreements to reduce energy use in industrial processes. Such agreements, although voluntary, may also
be a condition for financial incentives.
No such obligation has been made or is intended.
In liberalised markets an alternative to promoting energy efficiency through state financial incentives
and funds is to place an obligations placed on suppliers. In this scheme a supplier or distribution network manager scheme is placed under an obligation to demonstrate programs that save specified
amounts of energy related to their total supply volume. The supplier or network operator then builds
the costs into his cost-base; he then has the usual interest of a commercial company in keeping his
cost-base as small as possible. The requirement is enforced by the regulator; failure to comply may be
penalized in proportion to the deficit between the target savings for the supplier and the amount
achieved. Savings do not have to be made within the supplier’s own area; they can be in fuel oil, coal
or transport fuels. Such schemes can be complemented by “white certificates”. In this arrangement,
suppliers are obliged to demonstrate they either accomplished energy savings directly or have bought
certificates from others who can show they have made savings.
Policy towards energy efficiency at present rests mainly on a set of memoranda of understanding between the MEMEE, the CDER and the four principal Ministries controlling the energy intensive sectors,
i.e. Industry, Tourism, Education et Housing. Memoranda are being developed with the Ministries of
Transport and Health. The agreements establish a partnership among the three signatories and set
out specific measures that the line Ministry agrees to implement in Ministerial Directives. The agreements also provide for joint committees to follow the implementation process and stress the need for
the line Ministries to disseminate relevant information to the general public when it can be effective.
These agreements are recent and as yet the operation is not fully engaged and they cannot be evaluEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
- 13 -
ated.
3.8
Audits and the Promotion of ESCOs
The original of an Energy Service Companies or ESCO is that an entity other than the energy supplier
should identify, design, finance, supervise and commission projects for a client, to be compensated by
a share of the energy savings achieved over a defined period. The partition of savings is determined
by a special contract known as an energy performance contract (EPC). Actual practice varies widely;
some ESCOs will finance the project, others will organise finance. Implementation is not easy and
there are relatively few successful examples. The name ESCO is sometimes also given to companies
that just provide consulting services, but do not enter into an EPC. It is important to be clear what is
meant, as the latter is a much easier exercise than the former.
There has been little experience of industrial audits in Morocco and no government policy to support
or to oblige them. The law on energy efficiency now in preparation is expected to contain provisions
for mandatory audits.
3.9
Transport and Spatial Planning
More than half of the global population now live in cities and according to UN Habitat, by 2030, it will
be 60 percent. Cities consume enormous amounts of energy and they have great inertia; road systems and land-use decided now will influence energy use for a hundred years. In urban metropolitan
areas, transport creates a third at least of total greenhouse gas emissions. Promotion of public transport options and careful design of cities is critical for reducing emissions in cities.
The Ministry of the Interior is responsible for the definition of policies relating to urban transport. Management of urban transport is the responsibility of the municipalities. Strategy towards energy efficiency in transport is based on four actions:
• Creation of new authorities in large agglomerations, charged to define a strategy for the urban
transport, to plan and carry out the investments, to organize the operators of urban transport
and to implement conclusions
• Creation of an institution at the central level to formulate and apply national policies, to provide
a support to the metropolitan authorities and to reinforce the capacities in the sector
• Establishment of public-private of partnerships to improve the management of assets and to
accelerate the modernisation of the sector
• Setting up viable finance mechanisms to ensure a predictable flow of resources for investments in urban transport
The reduction of the energy intensity of transport and the conversion of transport modes to less carbon-intensive fuels in Casablanca was cited in the Moroccan submission to the Clean Technology Development Programme as a possible application of funds under the programme. Casablanca is the
biggest city in Morocco and the growth of traffic is very rapid, leading to congestion and local and
global pollution. Public transport is poorly developed and if significant improvements could be made in
the public systems then many energy and environmental benefits could be expected. Rapid transit
systems using tramways and light trains are proposed as a potential solution.
The estimated cost of this project is about $800 millions. The scheme is at present only conceptual;
the intent is that it would be subsidised by grants from the FDE, the CTP, the IBRD and African Development Bank, along with commercial loans repayable from the revenues achieved by the project.
- 14 -
3.10 Dissemination of Information
Access to knowledge is costly and may impede an individual or company from undertaking activities in
energy efficiency. It is a legitimate role of government to generate and disseminate knowledge as a
public good. We interpret the term knowledge in this context very widely to include data, technical
guidance, research and demonstration.
Little has been done in this respect, although as noted it is an element in the Memoranda of Understanding agreed with line Ministries.
- 15 -
4.
Comparison of Moroccan Practice with International Practice in Renewable Energy
This section attempts to compare the present status of renewable energy policy in Morocco with international practice.
Public policy intervenes to correct market failures. In the case of renewable energy, the most common
failures are somewhat similar to those identified previously for energy efficiency, but with a different
emphasis. Distorted energy prices, unrecognised external costs, poor access to technical information
all play a part. There is however a significant difference. Many measures of energy efficiency are cost
effective, but prevented by distortions of the conventional market. This is also true of some renewable
options, such as solar water heating. Many renewable energy technologies are not cost-effective even
if the distortions of the conventional market are removed. They are justified by the external costs that
they avoid, especially the external costs of GHG emissions. This means that they must be financially
subsidised to financial incentives of one sort or another are critical to renewable policy.
In addition to these general market failures there can be specific market failures for electricity generated from renewable energy that is fed into a national grid as electricity. Excessive and unjustified
costs of connection to the grid, inability to connect, disputes over responsibility for payment – these
can impede renewable deployment.
Policy instruments are intended to correct or compensate for these various distortions.
4.1
Targets and Strategy
Strategy sets out objectives and targets and defines the combinations of policy instruments that are
expected to achieve the targets.
Morocco enjoys important national resources in the form of wind, hydro and solar that is as yet
scarcely exploited. Wind is especially attractive in the medium terms. Morocco has an excellent wind
potential mainly in the North and in the South:
•
•
Essaouira, Tangier & Tetouan have an annual average between 9.5 & 11 m/s at 40 meters.
Tarfaya, Taza & Dakhla have an annual average between 7.5 m/s & 9.5 m/s at 40 meters.
The government estimates that the potential for development in the medium-term is 7,300 MW. Of this
resource, it is calculated that wind energy can be developed the most quickly and cheaply. According
to the Centre de développement des énergies renouvelables (CDER) the results of a study conducted
with GTZ show the wind potential is 5,290 TWh/year (2,645 GW) and the technical potential is 3,264
TWh/year (1,632 GW)
The development of these resources would contribute to the realisation of the national objectives of
security of supply and the reduction of GHG emissions. This potential is clearly recognised in the
comprehensive strategy for the energy sector that was published in March 2008 and which contains
quite specific targets for renewable energy. It is intended that renewable energy will account for 8% of
primary energy supply by 2012 and18% of the supply of electricity. An indicative list of priority renewable energy projects has been established, including1,000 MW of generating capacity from wind. The
plants will be mainly IPPs.
The PNAP also includes measures aimed at rehabilitating the assets of ONE and optimising producEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
- 16 -
tion for the hydro plant. A full list of supply side measures included in the PNAP is given in the Table
below. The activities are to be funded by the FDE described earlier; the shaded cells contain activities
that may also be funded by the application to the Clean Technology Programme.
Table 6 Supply-side measures in PNAP
Measure
Interventions
Increase capacity
Increase capacity on existing sites
Jorf Lasfar (2x350 MW)
New plant at Sidi Boudeniane (2 x 660 MW)
Ain Bni Mathar (472 MW)
Tag Mohammédia (300 MW)
Tan Tan (116 MW)
Tanafit El Borj (40 MW)
Tarfaya (300 MW)
EnergiPro (1,000 MW)
Parc de Tanger (140 MW)
Develop international connec- Construct a third line with Spain (700 MW)
tions
Commission 400 kV line with Algeria (800
MW)
Improved management of hy- Installation of reservoirs for agriculture to dedroelectric resources
couple irrigation and power production
Improved management of hydroelectric resources to increase output at peak times
Power factor correction
Installation of condenser batteries in distribution sub-stations to reduce line losses
Optimise maintenance pro- Reduce maintenance times to international
grammes
standards
Impact
4,388 MW
1,500 MW of new
connections
300-400 MW
200 MW reduced
loss at peak
50-100 MW at peak
In November 2009 the government announced a most ambitious programme for renewable energy,
known as the Integrated Solar Energy Generation Project. Under this plan, the part of installed capacity of renewable energy in the power system will represent 42% of total installed capacity by 2020. The
essence of the project is a proposal to generate electricity from installations working on the basis of
concentrated solar power (CSP).
The aim of the CSP component is an installed capacity of CSP of 2,000 MW by 2019 on 5 sites covering 10,000 hectares. The investment will be comprised of 3x500 MW plants and single plants of 100
MW and 400 MW. 400 MW plants located; the capacity created would be equal to 38 % of the current
total installed capacity in Morocco. The generation from these plants would be 4500 GWh per year,
corresponding to 18% of the current annual generation. The cost, as estimated in the solar plan, would
be 70 billion Moroccan dirhams ((9 billion US dollars). The schedule is demanding; the first plant is to
be commissioned in 2015 and the final component by the end of 2019. It is envisaged that the programme would save approximately 1 million toe per year, with a value at present prices of about $ 500
million dollars and would save about 3.7 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions each year.
A dedicated agency is to be created for the implementation of this plan, to be known as Moroccan
Agency for Solar Energy. The tasks of the agency will be to:
• Manage the overall project, including design, choice of operators, implementation.
• Coordinate and supervise all the other activities related to this programme
The first request for proposals is to be issued in September 2010. Finance for the venture is expected
- 17 -
from:
•
•
•
•
The Moroccan State
The Hassan II Fund For Economic & Social Development
Energy investment companies
Office National de l’Electricité
There is also progress at the regional level. GTZ is supporting a project to create Master Plans for renewable energy in three regions of the country.
4.2
Legal Reform
The main legal elements in a policy to promote renewable technologies are a clear targeted strategy
or road map, a specialised agency to implement public activities and a support system specifically
aimed at allocating the extra costs of the technology.
Over the last few years the Government of Morocco has made a substantial effort to strengthen the
legal and regulatory framework with the aim of facilitating the development of renewable energy and in
particular with the intent to encourage a participation in this endeavour from the public sector.
In its application to the Clean Technology Programme the government identifies several non-financial
obstacles to progress with renewables, including inadequate institutional structures, insufficient coherence and cooperation between Ministries, insufficient strategic guidance, insufficient information made
available to investors, a lack of experience in the administration and a lack of financial incentives.
Five significant legal reforms have been made to help overcome the obstacles cited and to improve
the environment for the development of renewable energy.
•
The Decree 2-94-503 of 1994 allows ONE to issue requests for proposals for electrical supply
from private investors with a capacity greater than 10 MW; this supply is to be contracted exclusively to ONE
•
The Decree 1-06-15 of 2006 obliges public institutions to employ competitive calls for tender in
the award of projects. The law applies for example to municipalities that may wish to contract
with wind farms or other sources of electricity from renewable energy
•
The Law 16-08, voted in 2008, raised the ceiling for self-generation by industrial sites from 10
MW to 50 MW. The law was conceived principally to support wind power, but applies equally
to other technologies. This Law rescinds the Decree from 1963 which attributes to ONE a monopoly of production above 10 MW and that prevented the sale to ONE of any electricity surplus to the requirements of the industry.
•
The draft law 13-09 on renewable energy has been adopted by the Council of Ministers, but
has not yet been voted by the Parliament. The new law would modify the existing Decree of
1968 establishing ONE, by authorising the production of electricity from renewable sources by
persons other than ONE.
•
Another draft law, 16-09 has also been adopted by the Council of Ministers that which extend
the mandate of CDER to include energy efficiency. It would replace the law 26-80 that created
CDER. The new entity would be called the Agence pour le développement des énergies renouvelables et l’efficacité énergétique (ADEREE). This reform touches also renewable energy
because it also transforms CDER from a research institution into a body with defined operational responsibilities.
- 18 -
4.3
An Agency
A specialised institution to make research, prepare initiatives, draft regulations, monitor progress, ensure compliance, administer funds and perform other administrative activities can be useful in promoting renewable technologies.
There is a long-established Centre for the Development of Renewable Energy (CDER), which was
created in 1982 under the supervision of the Ministry of Energy. Its principal functions at the time were
the research and promotion of renewable energy. As noted earlier, its responsibilities have since been
extended to energy efficiency and it is now in the process of reorganisation as the Agency for the Development of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ADEREE).
In its original form the functions of CDER were to:
• Evaluate the potential of renewable energy in Morocco
• Publish an atlas of the resource
• Mange the off-grid rural electrification programme and the promotion of SWH through the programme Promasol
• Implement information campaigns of renewable energy
• Elaborate plans for the development of renewable energy in collaboration with the municipalities
• Prepare agreements on renewable energy with other concerned Ministries
Under the new Law the new agency ADEREE will be responsible to promote both renewable energy
and energy efficiency. The responsibilities for renewable energy include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
4.4
Prepare a national plan for renewable energy and energy efficiency and submit it to the government
Conceive and implement action plans in the domains of renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as environmental programmes linked to its activities in the sector
Identify and map sites for renewable energy and prepare evaluations of the national potential
for energy efficiency
Propose possible areas for the construction of wind farms
Coordinate the programme of energy audits and ensure its success
Propose to the government modifications of the incentive framework for renewable energy and
the more efficient use of energy
Propose and put in place norms and standards for materials and equipment that consume energy
Conceive and implement pilot projects to demonstrate the viability of new solutions for renewable energy and energy efficiency or help their adoption
Standards would be inappropriate for large developments in renewable energy. Commercial developers are well equipped to decide for themselves on efficient and effective specifications. There is a
good case for standards for small appliances such as solar heaters.
Standards for solar water heaters have been produced based on European norms, namely:
• NM 14.5.002-2003 – Specifications for individual solar water heaters
• NM 14.5.003-2003 – Test for solar water heaters
• NM 14.5.004-2003 – Test for solar collectors with circulating liquid
- 19 -
Test beds for solar collectors and solar systems have been installed in two laboratories and protocols
for certification and labelling have been developed. The impact of this testing procedure has been
questioned, because 80% of SWH installed in 2000 were already certified by foreign manufacturers. It
is however an essential complement to the support of local manufacture.
4.5
Financial Incentives (Capital Support)
Many financial incentives have been used in different countries to promote renewable energy. Support
can either be offered to investment or to operation. Investment support for renewables is general delivered through the same type of instruments that are used to support investment in energy efficiency,
e.g. capital grants, tax exemptions, soft loans and loan guarantees. In the case of grid connected renewables it is possible also to offer support to operation either by allowing the electricity to be sold at
inflated tariffs or by obliging certain parties to purchase specified volumes. These instruments are to
some extent exclusive and are discussed together in the next section.
In most existing developments the excess costs of solutions using renewable energy have been paid
through donor funds. A good example is the electrification of rural areas in Morocco; this activity offered an important opportunity to extend the use of renewable energies. Morocco has a large and
growing rural population; 13 million people (45% of the population) live in rural areas. In 1996, the
government of Moroccan together with ONE undertook an ambitious programme greatly to extend the
access to electricity in rural areas. The Programme d’Electrification Rurale Globale (PERG) was designed to extend access to the entire Kingdom by 2010. The programme was successful in its objective; the electrification rate was between 15 and 20% at the beginning of the programme and is now
estimated at 98%.
The programme attributed 10% of the available funds to photovoltaic home solar systems. The homes
in the remote mountainous areas are much dispersed and technically this was deemed a sensible solution. At the end of the programme ONE originally estimated that 7% of homes (i.e. 250,000 houses)
will have access using photovoltaic equipment. So far around 60,000 systems have been installed with
a total capacity of some 4 MW, which is somewhat below the original target. Much of the finance for
the programme came from overseas donors including the EIB, the JBIC, the IDB, the Kuwaiti fund and
the AFD.
To encourage citizens to adopt photovoltaic solar homes ONE offered a choice of three purchase
options:
• Direct action. In this option, ONE purchased and installed the PV kits with the assistance of
the CDER and provides maintenance and after-sales service.
• Provision of a service. In this case ONE commissioned a private company close to the
beneficiaries to install the PV systems and to provide after-sales service and debt collection.
• Partnership action. ONE provided PV panels and batteries to corporations selected by
competitive tendering, which are then responsible for installing the equipment and fittings at
their own expense and also for equipment guarantees, maintenance and after-sales service.
The consumer typically pays a service charge of 30-50 DH/month depending on the size of the installation. There is a 20 or 30% subsidy from ONE and about 40% from the local authority.
ONE also experimented within this programme with pilot wind farms. The 60 MW plant at Bel Mogdol
Essaouira was constructed as a part of this programme; it was commissioned in April 2007 and was
constructed by GAMESA using 850 kW turbines. The plant was built under an IPP arrangement.
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For the most part, ONE has been responsible for the procurement and management of wind plant; it
publishes calls for tender and presides over the attribution of contracts. It supervises and manages the
plant on behalf of MEMEE. Existing wind parks have been built without any direct subsidy from the
Moroccan government; they are shown in Table 5. The plant A.Torres near Tetuan was built as an IPP
by a state company with soft loans from Denmark. Other plants of ONE are turnkey and so any cost in
excess of the alternative source of generation is not visible. The plant finishing construction at Tanger,
also by GAMESA, will on completion have a peak generating capacity of 140 MW and will be the largest wind park in Africa. Another plant, not in the Table, is under construction in the South of the country. It will have a capacity between 200 and 300 MW and will operate as an IPP under a BOT arrangement. The PPA is now in negotiation.
The privately owned windpark of Lafarge, the cement company, is interesting; it was built under the
EnergiePro scheme discussed in the next section.
Table 7 Existing wind parks in Morocco
Site
Function/Owner Date of commissioning
A. Torres (near ONE (IPP)
2000
Tetuan)
Bel Mogdol Es- ONE (turnkey)
2007
saouira
Tanger
ONE (turnkey)
2009
ONEP
Lafarge
Tétouan
Desalination
Autoproduction
2008
2006
Capacity
(MW)
50.4
Tonnes CO2
avoided per year
233,000
60
156,000 (CDM project)
100 commissioned
40 in construction
5.6
10
348,000 (in process of
validation for CDM)
18,850
30,000 (CDM project)
The solar regime in Morocco is very good with on average 3,000 hours per year of sun and 5.5.
kWh/m2/day. Support to the adoption of solar water heating has been offered through a programme
PROMASOL that includes among the instruments capital subsidies. The programme was carried out
in cooperation with the UNDP and was originally designed to start in 2000 with the overall aim of installing 100.000 m² of collectors over a period of four years. At the time the total installed capacity
across the country was some 50,000 m2. It was expected that the programme would also lead to improvements in the quality of equipment, a reduction of cost, better availability and a better supporting
environment. As a consequence of various delays the programme actually began in 2002; implementation was slower than expected and the programme was eventually extended to 2008; it was managed by CDER.
The achievement of the objectives was envisaged to be attained through complementary direct and
indirect actions. Direct actions included:
• Agreements with public sector actors in health, education, sport to implement SWH; these
agreements could foresee financial assistance
• Contractual agreements with the private sector (hotels and other commercial buildings) which
included the possibility of financial support
• Promotional activities including the procurement of 1 000 SWH of 150 litres / 2m² and sold on
to the residential market, the purchaser then needing only to pay the tax-free cost of the system plus the installation charges
- 21 -
Indirect actions were:
• Partnerships with commercial actors intended to augment the capacity for distribution and
commercialisation through technical and financial assistance to private sector manufacturers,
importers and installers to develop commercial and marketing strategies for their goods and
services
• Communication and dissemination of information to the wider public and to professionals (architects, consultants)
• Industrial support to manufacturers with the intent to provide technical support and financial
support for the investments in production facilities
A key element of the strategy was the FOGEER – a Guarantee Fund for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy – that was intended to cover the risks associated with collective systems in institutions and conceivably in residential buildings hotels and industry. It permits a guarantee to 70% of the
investment with a direct subsidy of 10% of the total cost and a reduction by 1.5% of the applicable interest rates. In fact it took a long time to establish and has been little used.
Improvements in the quality of equipment were addressed in several ways:
• An important tool is the guarantee of performance offered by the Garantie de Résultats Solaire
(GRS). Under this scheme the annual solar production by the solar installation is guaranteed
to the user.
• Standards and testing were introduced as described earlier
• Creation of a Commitee to certify installers
• Remote monitoring of performance
• A mobile training unit for the certification of installers
The area of solar collectors in Morocco installed from 2002 to 2008 was about 140,000 m2, so the
overall target was attained, albeit over a longer period than initially foreseen. The figures though are
still disappointing. The total installed capacity in the country is only 200,000 m2 and the rate of installation is around 40,000 m2. These are both low compared to other countries in the region with similar
solar regimes. A possible reason for the low penetration is the high subsidy provided to LPG. Bottled
gas is subsidised as part of a programme to prevent deforestation by low income people using fuelwood for cooking. It also means that gas water heating is economically attractive and competes
strongly with SWH.
New targets have been set for SWH of 1.7 million m2 by 2020. To achieve this PROMOSOL II will: introduce a new regime of incentives; continue to strengthen the quality of equipment and servicing; introduce a promotional exercise for public buildings and the tertiary sector; continue with sensitisation
and communication; increase the supply and availability of equipment.
A gas/solar hybrid plant is under construction in the East of the country; it is a 472 MW plant owned by
ONE of which the solar share is 20 MW. The solar component is a pilot project essentially funded by a
grant from the World Bank.
The FDE is available for renewable energy projects; although no firm decision has been reached on
the allocation of the Fund. It is believed that some $100 million may be reserved for investment support to projects in renewable energy. The application for the Clean Technology Development Programme also foresees allocation of funds to renewable projects.
4.6
Feed-in Tariffs and Obligations
Grid connected renewable energy is rarely cost-effective in its own right. It must be subsidised if it is to
- 22 -
be developed by private industry. There are two main ways of delivering the subsidy. One is by offering higher prices than those available commercially; the other is by creating a second valuable good
that represents the value of the fact that the energy is generated from renewables. The second
scheme is operated by issuing certificates that certify the renewable origin and then obliging an identified group (normally suppliers) to buy them. This creates a market and therefore a price.
The offer of higher tariffs may be created by tendering a concession, it being understood that the concession will be granted however the price achieved compares to market prices for electricity. This
stands in continuity with traditional processes of tendering large plants to IPPs; it allows secondary criteria, such as percentage domestic content, to be added to the evaluation criteria. It has recently been
adopted by Denmark for large developments. Higher tariffs made also be operated by a feed-in tariff
that is made available to any generator.
Certificate based schemes define a quantity of renewable electricity to be produced and market forces
identify a price that is unknown at the outset; feed-in tariffs fix a price to be paid for renewable electricity, but it is unknown what volume will be offered.
The Ministry of Finance is opposed to a feed-in tariff as it sees no reason to subsidise an industry that
cannot compete directly. There is however an interesting scheme operated by ONE that has almost
the same effect as a feed-in tariff. The EnergiPro project supports autoproduction by large consumers.
It was launched in September 2006 as an instrument to promote conventional autogeneration from
fossil fuels and to lighten the burden of investment on ONE by encouraging private industry to invest.
The offer by ONE comprises two elements:
An agreement to transmit all energy produced from a site of self-generation to any other point of consumption on the HT network of ONE. The transit tariff is of a “postage stamp” character and the level
is fixed at 0.06 MAD/kWh for all plants put into service before 2011, and at 0.08 MAD/kWh for plants
commissioned beyond that date.
Agreement to purchase by ONE of any surplus generation according to a fixed tariff structure. The tariffs are based on a 20% uplift with respect to the normal tariffs of ONE at peak, normal and off-peak
hours. The effect is of a weighted average of 0.41 MAD / kWh. The detailed tariff is given in the Table.
Table 8 EnergiPro purchase tariff
Time of day
Peak
Normal
Off-peak
Normal
(MAD/kWh)
0,456
0,335
0,180
tariff
Tariff increased by 20
% (MAD/kWh)
0,548
0,403
0,216
The developers are also entitled to the certificates of emission reductions (CERs). It is the CERs that
appear to tip the balance on the cost-benefit analysis.
The consequence of this arrangement is that developers face a known, clear regulatory framework in
which to plan their investments. These are the main attributes of a feed-in tariff, achieved in this instance without significant subsidy.
- 23 -
4.7
CDM Finance
The Clean Development Mechanism offers operating support to projects through the provision of a
market for the certificates of Carbon Emission Reduction. This is a complex project cycle, but can be
useful for large projects.
The Ministry of Environment was created in 1992. A strategy for the promotion of investment from
2003-2005 was developed with the help of UNDP and UNEP which aimed to develop the institutional
basis and procedures required to operate the mechanism and to reinforce national capacity where
needed. There were some initial difficulties in separating the responsibilities of the Ministry of the Environment from that of the Ministry of Energy, but after the Ministries were merged these problems were
overcome.
Morocco has subsequently been successful in its attempts to attract investment using the mechanism;
it has a portfolio of 61 projects of which 5 are registered; they are listed in the Table. Another five projects are in the course of validation.
Table 9 Registered CDM projects
Project
Agent
kt CO2(e)/year
Wind park at Essaouira (60
MW)
156.00
Collection and flaring of biogas in the landfill at Oulja
Agence d’Aménagement de la
Vallée de Bouregreg
32.48
Use of bagasse at SURAC
SURAC s.a.
31.65
Production electricity
photovoltaic kits
39.53
LAFARGE - Maroc
28.60
with
Wind park at Tétouan (10
MW)
4.8
Information
It is a legitimate role of government to generate and disseminate knowledge as a public good. The
main need in this respect is for data on the renewable resource. It makes no sense for every developer to make their own measurements of solar and wind data. The need is especially acute for wind
as the extent of the resource varies locally.
The availability of wind data for developers is good. In 1986, the Renewable Energy Development
Centre (CDER) published a first Wind Atlas of Morocco using wind data from 17 stations and airports
in Morocco. In 1990, the Centre launched a special wind measuring programme in collaboration with
the Special Energy Programme (SEP) financed by GTZ. In Phase 1 the Moroccan wind potential was
evaluated along the 3500 km Atlantic Coast and the report was published in 1995. A second report
contains the data for the best sites. The second phase (1995-2000) examined the wind potential in the
North-East (Taza, Nador and El Hoceima) and South (Essaouira, Laâyoune and Tarfaya). Measurements were made at 10, 20 and 40 m and an updated atlas was published in 2006.
A solar atlas is also available.
- 24 -
Considerable dissemination of information to the public about the benefits of SWH and the incentives
offered to investment was undertaken within the PROMOSOL programme.
4.9
Industrial Policy
It is important that countries develop their own capacity to manufacture and / or assemble renewable
technologies in parallel with the investment process. This can be done by targeted research, by grants
to appropriate industries and by local manufacturing obligations in tendering.
AMISOLE is an industrial association for renewable energy in Morocco that has been active for the
last 22 years promoting the interests of industry and professional persons working in renewable energy. Despite this longstanding interest, there are relatively few Moroccan companies that are actively
involved in commercial projects. This may be attributed to several factors that are specific to each industry. SWH has not penetrated the market in Morocco, perhaps as noted, because of subsidised
LPG.
Although there has been substantial use made of photovoltaic systems for rural electrification, it has
not created a strong local manufacturing capability. There is local assembly of panels, but no encapsulation. Several studies have been made of the prospects for encapsulation locally, but have always
concluded the market was insufficient. An opportunity to develop some domestic capacity was provided by the rural electrification programme, but the rapid initiation of the programme was incompatible with the time to start up local manufacture, there was no government support and the electrification
programme consequently had little or no impact on industry. Generally there is still no specific industrial policy to support renewable energy. There are some general provisions to support inward investment, but nothing particular for RE.
- 25 -
5.
Case Studies
The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the processes of evidence-based policy making (EBPM)
and theory-based evaluation (TBE). These techniques are well-known in the literature and have been
widely applied, but not generally to technical areas of policy such as energy efficiency and renewable
energy. There is potential for application in these areas because the methodologies provide a systematic basis for analysis and debate among stakeholders around a common and clear statement of the
policy intervention that can be maintained and improved throughout the project cycle from formulation,
through implementation, monitoring and evaluation.
The basic expression of this methodology is the behavioural model that underlies our understanding of
the reaction of stakeholders to the policy instrument.
5.1
Case Study 1 - Evaluation of Policy Instruments for Private Wind Energy Development
5.1.1
Background and Context
The example that we choose in this case for illustration is the analysis of competing instruments for
the promotion of wind energy in Morocco.
5.1.1.1
Promotion of Private Investment in Wind Energy in Morocco
Morocco enjoys important national resources in the form of wind, hydro and solar that is as yet
scarcely exploited. Wind is especially attractive in the medium terms. Morocco has an excellent wind
potential mainly in the North and in the South:
• Essaouira, Tangier & Tetouan have an annual average between 9.5 & 11 m/s at 40 meters.
• Tarfaya, Taza & Dakhla have an annual average between 7.5 m/s & 9.5 m/s at 40 meters.
The government estimates that the potential for development in the medium-term is 7,300 MW. An indicative list of priority renewable energy projects has been established, including1,000 MW of generating capacity from wind. The plants will be mainly IPPs.
For the most part, ONE has been responsible for the procurement and management of wind plant; it
publishes calls for tender and presides over the attribution of contracts. It supervises and manages the
plant on behalf of MEMEE. Existing wind parks have been built without any direct subsidy from the
Moroccan government; they are shown in the table below. The plant A.Torres near Tetuan was built
as an IPP by a state company with soft loans from Denmark. Other plants of ONE are turnkey and so
any cost in excess of the alternative source of generation is not visible. The plant finishing construction
at Tanger, also by GAMESA, will on completion have a peak generating capacity of 140 MW and will
be the largest wind park in Africa. Another plant, not indicated in the Table, is under construction in the
South of the country. It will have a capacity between 200 and 300 MW and will operate as an IPP under a BOT arrangement. The PPA is now in negotiation.
The privately owned wind park of Lafarge, the cement company, is interesting; it was built under the
EnergiePro scheme which is the main topic of this case study.
- 26 -
Table 10:
Existing Wind Parks in Morocco
Function /
Owner
Site
Date of commissioning
Capacity
(MW)
Tonnes CO2
avoided per year
A. Torres (near
Tetuan)
ONE (IPP)
2000
50.4
Bel Mogdol Essaouira
ONE (turnkey)
2007
60
156,000
(CDM project)
348,000
(in process of
validation for
CDM)
233,000
Tanger
ONE (turnkey)
2009
100 commissioned
40 in construction
ONEP
Desalination
2008
5.6
18,850
Lafarge Tétouan
Autoproduction
2006
10
30,000
(CDM project)
5.1.1.2
EnergiePro
The EnergiePro programme was launched in September 2006 as an instrument to promote conventional auto-generation from fossil fuels and to encourage private industry to invest in renewables.
Under the scheme ONE must support private investment through two mechanisms:
•
An agreement to transmit all energy produced from a site of self-generation to any other point
of consumption on the HT network of ONE. The transit tariff is fixed at 0.06 Dh/kWh for all
plants put into service before 2011, and at 0.08 Dh/kWh for plants commissioned later.
•
Agreement to purchase surplus generation according to a fixed tariff structure based on a 20%
uplift with respect to the normal tariffs of ONE at peak, normal and off-peak hours. The effect
is of a weighted average of 0.41 Dh / kWh. The detailed tariff is given in the following table.
Table 11:
EnergiePro - Purchase Tariff
Time of day
Peak
Normal
Off-peak
Normal tariff
(Dh/kWh)
0,456
0,335
0,180
Tariff increased by 20 %
(Dh/kWh)
0,548
0,403
0,216
The developer and the user need not be the same entity, but the developer can sell only to the designated user and the surplus to ONE. The effect of the scheme is somewhat similar to a feed-in tariff
(FIT) as it offers to the developer a fixed regulatory framework that limits some of the risks of the project. The Ministry of Finance appears to be opposed to the concept of a feed-in tariff as it sees no reason to support non-commercial investments.
5.1.1.3
Scope of the Case Study
This Case Study considers two policy instruments to promote wind power. One is the EnergiePro arEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
- 27 -
rangement; the other is the adoption of a feed-in tariff (FIT) at a predetermined rate.
The case study applies the concepts of evidence based policy formulation and theory based evaluation with the intention to demonstrate how these techniques can clarify analysis. The study covers the
following three aspects:
•
•
•
5.1.2
5.1.2.1
Evidence based policy preparation: For both policy instruments behavioural models are developed and the respective expected impacts are analysed.
Economic assessment of the wind energy option: An economic assessment of wind energy for
Morocco is presented indicating the main factors determining the economic viability of this option.
Conclusions regarding the utility and application of the methodology and to some extent the
substance of the policy instruments analysed.
Comparison of Policy Instruments for the Promotion of Wind Power
Specification of the Alternative Policy Instruments
The two options that we consider here are:
•
•
The EnergiePro scheme,
A feed-in tariff: i.e. Identification of areas sufficiently close to possible grid connections to be
practical and then acceptance of all technically acceptable bids at a predetermined feed-in tariff.
We assume in both cases that the certificates of emission reductions issued under any CDM certification process are assigned to the developer. It does not affect the analysis if they are assigned to other
parties, because there will have to be compensating financial flows. We make this assumption because we consider it to be the most appropriate choice.
5.1.2.2
Methodological Approach
We specify the behavioural model as a causal sequence in which the successive steps of policy implementation are shown in the first column and then in subsequent columns are listed various indicators, risks and assumptions. The successive steps of the policy may or may not specify recognisable
behavioural assumptions; it depends very much on the type of policy investigated.
The indicators that we adopt are measures of input, output, outcome and impact. By these terms we
mean the following:
• Inputs are the financial, human, technical or organizational resources used in the endeavour,
• Outputs are objectively verifiable indicators that demonstrate the progress made in implementing
the measures,
• Outcomes are the immediate effects on the regulated subject,
• Impacts are direct measurements of the improvements that the programme is designed to cause
The behavioural model is a formal description of the process of implementation, the concerns to be
raised at each stage and the measures that are to be adopted to make sure everything is working as
expected. It provides a structure for the analytical steps and indicates the evidence that should be
- 28 -
sought at each stage to support assertions or on which to found analysis. It allows the issues that
might affect implementation to be identified and it allows different stakeholders to debate around a
clear and concrete representation of the policy. In later stages it serves as the basis for monitoring and
evaluation.
Behavioural models for the two policy instruments considered here are shown in the following tables.
They are very similar; but a close comparison shows that there are some significant differences. The
cells of interest are lightly shaded in the two cases. The main differences concern the likely impact and
the cost to the state.
- 29 -
Table 12:
Behavioural Model of EnergiePro Scheme
Indicators
Behavioural
model
Input
Output
• Prepare legislation and regulations for EnergiePro
• Transmission
company and
Ministry collaborate to define terms and
conditions to
ensure optimal
development of
sites
• Regulator and
Ministry collaborate to
specify requirements for
local content
• Time of officials
and legislature
($)
• Published law
and regulations
(Y/N)
and transmission company
staff ($)
• Conditions defined (Y/N)
• Supplementary
conditions
added to applications for EnnergiePro (Y/N)
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Requirements
defined (Y/N)
• Supplementary
conditions
added to applications for for
EnnergiePro
(Y/N)
• Explain and
promote concept; foster
stakeholder
groupings developers industries
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Promotional materials, meetings
(#)
• Key stakeholders informed
(#)
Outcome
Impact
Risks
• Possible delays
in finding legislative time
• Status of local
manufacturers
in negotiations
enhanced (?)
• Insufficient local
capacity; may
be a restraint
on competition
• Monitoring local
content may be
problematic
Assumptions
- 30 -
Indicators
Behavioural
model
Input
Output
Outcome
• Developers and
industry formulate projects
and make preliminary approach to Ministry
• Time to prepare
feasibility studies ($)
• Consulting
support ($)
• Costs of negotiations between developers and industry
• Feasibility studies (#)
• Consortia
formed (#)
• Detailed measurements of
wind resource
performed
• Final project
form defined; finance arranged; land
rights acquired.
Submitted to
Ministry
• Transmission
company
adapts network
expansion to
cope with development
• Time of specialised consultants ($)
• Wind regime defined (Y/N)
• Time of consortia and consultants ($)
• Final project
specification
and implementation arrangements (#)
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Cost of adaptation ($)
• Expansion plan
revised (Y/N)
Impact
Risks
Assumptions
• Financial conditions insufficient
• High perceived
counterparty
risk
• Industry do not
see it as core
• Developers
cannot identify
potential users
• Costs of acquiring data seen
as prohibitive
• Local investors
comfortable
with operating
on the carbon
market
• Projects authorised (#)
• Adaptation too
costly
- 31 -
Indicators
Behavioural
model
Input
Output
Outcome
• Authorised projects constructed and
commissioned
• Construction
schedule observed because
of commercial
interest of
owner
• Plant operates
with high availability because
of commercial
interest of
owner
• Equipment,
construction
costs, supervisory costs ($)
• Completed plant
(Y/N)
• Power plant
commissioned
(Y/N).
• Nominal cost of
balancing
power ($)
• Electricity generation (GWh)
• Fuel displaced
(GJ)
• Volume of electricity generated
(GWh).
• Volume of fuel
purchased for
power plant
(GJ).
• Project registered with CDM
• Time and fees
($)
• Registration
(Y/N)
• CERs received
(#)
Note on symbols:
• $ indicates indicator is measured in financial terms
• # indicates indicator is measured in numbers
• Y/N indicates indicators is a yes or no observation
Impact
Risks
Assumptions
• Developers
may delay or
withdraw for financial or technical reasons –
little means of
control
• Industrial party
may withdraw
• Value of fuel
saved at opportunity cost ($).
• Value of domestic content
($).
• Volume of CO2
emission reduction (mt).
• Value of CERs
($)
• Technical risks
– low
• Counterparty
risk – if user
fails then project is jeopardised
• In case of need,
developer can
find substitute
client
- 32 -
Table 13:
Behavioural Model of Feed-in tariff (FIT) Scheme for Wind IPP
Indicators
Behavioural
model
Input
Output
• Prepare legislation and regulations for FIT
• Transmission
company and
Ministry collaborate to define terms and
conditions to
ensure optimal
development of
sites
• Regulator and
Ministry collaborate to
specify requirements for
local content
and legislature
($)
and transmission company
staff ($)
• Published law
and regulations
(Y/N)
• Conditions defined (Y/N)
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Requirements
defined (Y/N)
• Supplementary
conditions
added to applications for for
FIT (Y/N)
• Explain and
promote concept; foster
stakeholder
groupings developers, municipalities
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Promotional materials, meetings
(#)
• Key stakeholders informed
(#)
Outcome
Impact
Risks
• Possible delays
in finding legislative time
• Control of development will
be difficult
• Supplementary
conditions
added to applications for FIT
(Y/N)
• Status of local
manufacturers
in negotiations
enhanced (?)
• Insufficient local
capacity; may
be a restraint
on competition
• Monitoring local
content may be
problematic
Assumptions
- 33 -
Indicators
Behavioural
model
• Foreign and local developers
formulate projects and approach to Ministry
• Detailed measurements of
wind resource
performed
• Final project defined; finance
arranged; land
rights acquired.
Submitted to
Ministry for
technical clearance
• Transmission
company
adapts network
expansion to
cope with development
Input
Output
Outcome
Impact
Risks
• Time to prepare
feasibility studies ($)
• Consulting
support ($)
• Feasibility studies (#)
• Consortia
formed (#)
• Financial conditions insufficient
• High perceived
counterparty
risk
• Time of specialised consultants ($)
• Wind regime defined (Y/N)
• Costs of acquiring data seen
as prohibitive
• Projects authorised (#)
• Too many projects are proposed with
technical and
financial implications for the
utility
• Time of consortia and consultants ($)
• Technical clearance (#)
in Ministry and
Regulator ($)
• Cost of adaptation ($)
• Expansion plan
revised (Y/N)
• Adaptation too
costly
Assumptions
- 34 -
Indicators
Behavioural
model
Input
Output
Outcome
• Authorised projects constructed and
commissioned
• Construction
schedule observed because
of commercial
interest of
owner
• Plant operates
with high availability because
of commercial
interest of
owner
• Equipment,
construction
costs, supervisory costs ($)
• Completed plant
(Y/N)
• Power plant
commissioned
(Y/N).
• Nominal cost of
balancing
power ($)
• Electricity generation (GWh)
• Fuel displaced
(GJ)
• Volume of electricity generated
(GWh).
• Volume of fuel
purchased for
power plant
(GJ).
• Project registered with CDM
• Time and fees
($)
• Registration
(Y/N)
• CERs received
(#)
Note on symbols:
Impact
Risks
• Developers
may delay or
withdraw for financial or technical reasons –
little means of
control
• Value of fuel
saved at opportunity cost ($).
• Value of domestic content
($).
• Volume of CO2
emission reduction (mt).
• Value of CERs
($)
• Technical risks
– low
Assumptions
- 35 -
5.1.2.3
Result of the Comparison
The main differences in the two models concern the likely impact and the cost to the state.
The first big difference is the transaction costs. With EnergiePro a developer must find a user. This
takes an effort. The user may withdraw at some late stage in the project and the developer loses time
and money. With an FIT the developer is sure of his market and the utility cannot withdraw. The impact of the EnergiePro scheme will be limited because the number of opportunities is restricted by the
number of deals that can be struck between potential large users and developers. All other things being equal, any development under Energie Pro could also be undertaken with a FIT, but many possible sites might not be developed under the Energie Pro scheme because the developer cannot find a
suitable client. The other consequence of this is that the FIT may call out an unexpectedly high number of opportunities and that this may cause technical or financial difficulties for the utility.
The other big difference in the two instruments lies in the perception of risk. The perception of risk in
the two cases is subject to contradictory influences. If the industry were to develop its own wind generation then the perception of counterparty risk might be low, because the transaction is internal; the
company will not default on itself. If the company were to go bankrupt then there would be no real
consequence for the generation business which would simply form part of the assets of the bankrupted company. The perception of technical risk however is likely to be high because the industry will
not be familiar with the technology. It may also wish to preserve capital for its core business. The
benefits of self-generation from wind are less evident to a company than those from cogeneration,
which can give large cost savings through the joint provision of heat and power. The company would
normally only engage in such a venture if there were significant cost savings compared to grid supplies; these savings need to be assessed.
There is also something to be learnt from the behavioural matrices about flanking policies. Where
there are risks these might managed through complementary policies. In this case the risks and possible flanking policies are:
Table 14:
Risks and Flanking Policies
Risk
Developers may perceive high risks in obtaining
CERs (FIT and EnergiePro)
Developers may perceive high counterparty risk
(EnergiePro)
Developers may be concerned about lock-in to a
single client (EnergiePro)
International developers may have difficulty in
finding partners (EnergiePro)
Prospective industrial partners may be sceptical
of merits of engaging in the programme (EnergiePro)
Developers may be intimidated by the effort in
finding suitable sites (FIT and EnergiePro)
Flanking policy
Install transparent, non-discriminatory procedures
Support developers in registration process
Register under a programme of action
Seek concessionary credit lines for international
banks
Ensure transfer of contracts to new client is permitted and facilitated
Set up “Marriage Bureau” to link developers with
prospective clients
Establish sensitisation and awareness programmes
Prepare list of priority sites with preliminary wind
data and outline planning permission
- 36 -
5.1.3
5.1.3.1
Cost-Benefit Assessment
Methodology Applied
To analyse the economic implications of these two instruments we have look at the impact of a wind
development on the Moroccan economy and then we discuss how the different instruments might affect the attitude of the wind developer and their willingness to invest in wind energy.
The analysis assumes that the wind energy investment will be done by independent power producers
(IPP) which require a certain return on investment. These return requirements are a direct consequence of the perceived reliability of the regulatory and legal environment, if the regulatory and legal
framework is considered as well developed and stable the required risk coverage will be lowered.
The analysis covers two aspects of a cost-benefit analysis:
• The economic analysis considers the required return as a cost for the Moroccan economy,
• The financial analysis evaluates the commercial interest considering the point of view of the investor.
But first the key data for the wind energy investments will be presented and then the cost of alternative
electricity supply.
5.1.3.2
The data used for the assessment of the wind energy option are shown in the following table. In this
table a difference is made between the cost of the wind energy supply to be under the responsibility of
the wind energy IPP and the cost for stand-by capacity to be covered by the Moroccan electricity sector through additional investment in coal.
Table 15:
5.1.3.3
Costs for Electricity Generation using Imported Coal
Historic Trends
Because of the diversity of producers and the more competitive market in coal there is less volatility
- 37 -
than for oil. The historical evolution of international coal marker prices compared to heavy fuel oil is
shown in the Figure. The difference in behaviour is quite apparent. Whereas oil prices quadrupled
over the period, coal prices increased by around 50%.
Figure 1:
Historical Trends in Coal Prices
400
350
US $/tonne
300
250
Northwest Europe
marker price
200
Japan steam coal
import cif price
150
HFO >1% Sulphur
100
50
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Price Forecast Based on Crude Oil Prices
The US Department of Energy/Energy Information Agency has produced long-term forecasts of crude
and petroleum product prices to 2030 (EIA, 2009). This is an authoritative source; it may not be right,
but a great deal of effort and analysis has gone into its creation and it is a reasonable source to adopt.
The following figure shows their forecast of crude prices in real and nominal terms to 2030.
Figure 2:
Forecasts of Crude Prices to 2030 (DOE/IEA)
200
180
160
140
$/bbl
120
Crude Oil (weighted
average) 2007 US$/bbl
100
80
" nominal prices
60
40
20
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
- 38 -
It is statistically clear that fuel prices are strongly correlated over the medium term. We use a formula
to describe a plausible relationship between coal prices and crude oil prices. The formula we use is:
Price for coal in $/tonne (6000kcal/kg) = 22 + 0.15 * price HFO ($/tonne)
The formula has been derived from regression of historic coal prices against those of heavy fuel oil;
it has to be treated carefully as the parameters are only correct for the specified choice of fuels and
units. This procedure gives a central case for coal prices as shown in the next Figure 3.
Figure 3:
Central Forecast for Coal Prices ($2007/GJ)
Capital cost and performance of coal-fired generation
Based on the IEA publication Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - 2005 Update and adjusting
for inflation we estimate the cost of a coal fired plant to be about $1300 / kW. The cost is linked also to
steam conditions and thermal efficiency. Subcritical plants can achieve 36–40% efficiency. Modern
supercritical units operating at steam conditions above 269 bar / 593°C have efficiencies in the low to
mid 40% range, with new "ultra critical" designs using pressures of 300 bar and dual stage reheat
reaching about 48% efficiency.
We adopt a value of 40% as being achievable in Morocco and in line with our capital cost estimate.
- 39 -
Table 16:
Coal Based Electricity Generation
At the bottom to the table the cost increases for coal based generation for a range of CER values /
carbon credits are given. These values will be used below to evaluate the impacts of the CDM mechanism upon the economic feasibility of the wind energy option for Morocco.
5.1.3.4
Economic Assessment
The economic assessment is done in form of a least cost analysis, the impacts of an investment in
1 kW wind generation capacity is analysed. Two alternatives to produce electricity in Morocco are
compared, (i) Imported coal used for electricity generation, and (ii) Wind energy.
The benefit - cost balance for the Moroccan economy are the following:
• Benefits for Morocco: The avoided costs for the coal based electricity generation and the carbon
credits are the benefits of the wind generation option,
• Costs for Morocco: The wind energy investment costs, the required capital remuneration and the
back-up capacities are the costs for Morocco.
The key parameters for the assessment are:
•
•
•
Wind energy investment costs and potential wind energy production and the back-up requirements for wind energy - the corresponding cost for coal power plants are considered,
Investment costs for coal fired power plant and performance data and the cost of coal,
Return on equity requirements of independent power producers (IPP) for wind and coal devel-
- 40 -
opments:
IPP Wind energy developers: Considering the uncertainties related to wind energy in Morocco the developers will require a return on investment of 20%,
• IPP coal developers: The investment in new coal units in Morocco is considered as a reliable business, therefore a return on investment of 10% is considered as satisfactory.
• Opportunity costs for capital in Morocco (economic discount rate) 10%.
•
The assessment is done in constant prices; this implies that the stated interest rates are real values.
Only for coal a price increase is considered over the planning period.
It has to be taken into consideration that the assessment is done in constant prices; this implies that
the stated interest rates are real values. Only for natural gas a price increase is considered over the
planning period.
Table 17:
General Parameter for Economic Assessment
Figure 4 shows the projection of units cost for the two energy supply alternative. The increase in coal
generation unit costs is due to the assumed price increase (in real terms) for imported coal.
In addition to the base case, two price variations are considered: 30% higher coal prices and 30%
lower coal prices,
With these projections of the unit costs it is possible to determine economic net present value (NPV).
The cost of the coal based electricity generation alternative is taken as the benefit of the wind power
alternative. The result is given in Table 18. In the base case the wind power alternative is not economically viable as it is shown by the negative NPV. Even under the assumption of a 30% higher coal
price, the wind option is not economic feasible, the NPV is still negative.
Table 18:
Wind Energy - Economic Assessment Criteria
In the following figure it can be seen that the unit costs to generate one kWh electricity with a wind
generator is higher than the unit costs of generating electricity using imported coal under the four coal
price scenarios.
- 41 -
Figure 4:
Comparison of Unit Costs for Wind Energy and Coal Based Electricity Generation
14
Costs (US-cent/kWh)
12
10
Coal
8
Coal high
6
Coal low
Wind
4
2
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
0
Years
Return on Investment
The importance of the wind IPP investors requested return on investment upon the unit costs (US-cent
/ kWh) for wind generation is shown in Figure 5. It can be seen that the requested return on investment and the country & contract risk increase with the perception of the country and contract risk.
In the present case study it was assumed that the wind energy IPP will request a return on investment
of 20% considering the pilot character of an IPP wind energy investment and various unresolved issues of land use, concession contract and power purchase agreements and feed-in tariff.
A reliable legal and contractual environment could significantly reduce the perceived country and contract risk. Such a reliable environment is given under the EnergiePro programme, the feed-in tariffs are
defined and the regulatory issues are solved.
In the following figure it is the components of the required return on investment, a high share is due
the perceived contract and country risk. In Table 19 the wind unit costs are given for a range of return
requirements and the resulting NPV if the avoided cost of coal based electricity generation is taken as
the benefit. It can be seen that even with quite low return requirements the economic cost of wind
electricity generation cannot be justified in economic terms.
- 42 -
Figure 5:
IPP Wind - Expected Return on Investment
14.00
Unit costs (US-cent / kWh)
12.00
10.00
Country&contract risk
8.00
Technology risk (2%)
Return on equity (RoE 6%)
6.00
Capex&Opex (RoE 0%)
4.00
2.00
0.00
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Return on Investment (RoE)
Table 19:
Wind Energy - Impact of Required Return on Investment (RoI) upon Unit Costs and
NPV
Impact of Carbon Credits - Based Case (IPP Wind - Required RoI 20%)
One policy option could be to offer the carbon credits generated by wind energy projects to the wind
IPPs. They would have additional revenue. Table 20 shows the situation for two price levels for the
carbon credits (between 20 and 50 USD/t CO2).
Table 20:
(Base case - 20% Return on investment (RoI) requirements)
Over the range of assumed carbon credits the economic NPV remains negative, which means that the
unit costs of the wind energy option are still higher than for the coal based generation. This is illusEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
- 43 -
trated in the following figure, which depicts the net cash flow for wind (defined as unit cost differences
- unit costs coal minus unit costs wind).
Figure 6:
Net cash flow (US-cent/kWh)
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
-1
2010
0
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Years
Base case
40 USD / t CO2
20 USD / t CO2
50 USD / t CO2
30 USD / t CO2
Impact of Carbon Credits - Improved Framework (IPP Wind - Required RoI 14%)
As it was discussed in the previous chapter, with the EnergiePro Programme the Moroccan Government established a reliable and trustworthy legal and regulatory framework for the wind energy developers. The feed-in tariffs and the conditions of selling electricity to the industrial partners and the ONE
are known. Under these circumstances it is reasonable to assume that the wind energy developers will
reduce their risk perception and the return on investment (RoI) requirements. In Table 21 the situation
for an assumed RoI of 12% is shown.
Table 21:
In the cased that the carbon credits would be well above 20 USD / t CO2 the wind energy option becomes economically feasible which is indicated by the positive economic NPV). The net cash-flows for
the wind option (defined as unit costs of coal minus unit costs for wind) are given in Figure 7 for the
different levels of carbon credits.
- 44 -
Figure 7:
4
2
1
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
-1
2012
0
2010
Net cash flow (US-cent/kWh)
3
-2
-3
-4
Years
Base case
40 USD / t CO2
5.1.3.5
20 USD / t CO2
50 USD / t CO2
30 USD / t CO2
Financial Assessment
The analysis under the perspective of the Moroccan economy will be complemented by an analysis of
the under the perspective of the IPP developer. To simplify the analysis, only two elements of the
analysis will be modified in comparison to the economic analysis:
• Wind IPP revenues: The revenues for the IPP investor are determined by the EnergiePro programme and the willingness to pay of the industrial project partners.
- The ONE HV sales tariff are as shown in Table 22.
- We assume that the developer sells to the industry at 10% less than the tariff of the utility as the
user must see a benefit.
- The broad consequence of this tariff is that users will pay between about 0.65 Dh / kWh and
0.75 Dh / kWh depending upon the details of their load. We take a characteristic value of 0.7 Dh
/ kWh, i.e. 6.2 Euro-cents /kWh. If we assume that the industrialist will want to see a benefit of
10% of his costs, then the developer sells at 0.63 Dh/kWh.
• Back-up capacity: The costs for the back-up capacities are not considered because these costs
have to be covered by the IPP investor.
- 45 -
Table 22:
Electricity Prices for HV Consumers (Option of annual duration)
Load hours
Capacity charge
Dh/kW/yr
VLU
MU
SU
Note:
1,259.57
504.26
252.13
Dh/kWh
Peak time
Full time
Off peak
0.5974
0.9517
1.2550
0.4791
0.6028
0.7011
0.4376
0.4376
0.4572
VLU :
Very Long Usage (> 6000 hours):
MU :
Medium Usage (between 3500 and 6000 hours)
SU :
Short Usage (< 3500 hours)
The general parameters for the assessment are given in the following Table.
Table 23:
The specific parameters for the IPP wind energy investment together with the assumed electricity
prices / tariffs are given in the following table.
Table 24:
The results of the financial analysis are given in Table 25, the projection of the project and equity cash
flows are given in Table 26. The results are:
• Financial project assessment (without taxes and financing): The financial IRR is 12%, quite below
- 46 -
the threshold for IPP investors of 20%, but acceptable under the reliable framework of EnergiePro.
• Return on equity (RoE) assessment (with financing and taxes): The RoE with 13% is slightly
higher, thanks to the low interest rates for the loan financing of 8%. But the tax payments reduce
this favourable impact.
Table 25:
Financial Assessment - Results for the Base Case (Without CERs / Carbon Credits)
- 47 -
Table 26:
Financial Assessment - Projection of Project and Equity Cash Flow
- 48 -
Impact of CERs Values - Carbon credits
The next step of the financial analysis considers the situation that the carbon credits will be additional
revenue for the IPP wind developers. In Table 27 provides the results for this step of the financial assessment. The financial indicators are given for a range of carbon credits.
Table 27:
Financial Assessment - Results with CERs / Carbon Credits
It can be seen that with carbon credits higher than 20 USD / t CO2 the wind energy investment will be
a very attractive investment generating a return on equity higher than 20%.
These quite favourable results for the financial assessment explain why at present there are quite a
number of initiatives in Morocco to develop wind energy projects under the EnergiePro programme.
5.1.4
5.1.4.1
Conclusion
Methodology
The case study demonstrates the advantages of developing deconstructed versions of policy prescriptions as an aid to analysis and to stimulate focused debate among stakeholders.
It demonstrates the approach for the case of two policy options for wind and shows how the options
can then be analysed in the light of the policy objectives to form the basis for decision.
The study then demonstrates the linkage between this deconstructed specification and detailed economic analysis.
5.1.4.2
Policy Instruments for Wind
It is beyond the purpose of this illustrative case study to draw definitive conclusions regarding the wind
energy option for Morocco and the involvement of private wind IPPs.
Some interesting aspects of the study are discussed in the following sections.
Wind Energy Policy Framework
• EnergiePro: The great advantage of the EnergiePro scheme is the fact that an existing legal and
regulatory framework is used for the development of wind energy in Morocco. Within the established framework private investors can develop jointly with their industrial partners the projects.
But it has to be admitted that the necessity of involving industrial partners into the wind energy project can pose problems and might increase the start-up costs because the negotiation process
among the partners can be quite complex and time consuming.
- 49 -
• Feed-in tariff: The up-front efforts of this policy option are high because the appropriate feed-in
tariff has to be determined and the legal and contractual framework has to be developed. There is
some risk in the early stages that tariffs may be set too high or too low as there is little basis on
which to proceed. The standardised nature of the transaction makes it appropriate for small sites
spontaneously offered by developers.
Economic and Financial Feasibility
• Economic viability of wind energy in Morocco:
- The wind energy option can be economically justified, but the assessment shows that the main
issues are the cost of the alternative electricity generation, the back-up requirements for wind
energy and the return on investment requirements of the wind IPPs (which are in fact a cost factor for Morocco).
- Under a favourable framework for wind energy and carbon credits the wind energy option is
economically feasible, even if coal based generation is considered as the alternative electricity
supply.
- Of importance for a larger wind energy programme is the cost for the back-up capacities.
• Financial (commercial) viability under the EnergiePro programme:
- The wind energy option can be commercial viable under the framework defined by the EnergiePro scheme:
- The EnergiePro scheme offers attractive incentives for he wind energy developer,
- Quite large credits for the carbon emissions that are avoided ($20 / tonne or more)
would improve the financial viability.
- 50 -
5.2
Case Study 2 - Concentrated Solar Power
5.2.1
Background and Context
The example that we choose in this case for illustration is the analysis of a 500 MW concentrated solar
power plant (CSP) in Morocco.
5.2.2
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
In November 2009 the government announced a most ambitious programme for renewable energy,
known as the Integrated Solar Energy Generation Project. The essence of the project is a proposal to
generate electricity from installations working on the basis of concentrated solar power (CSP). The aim
is an installed capacity of CSP of 2,000 MW by 2019 on 5 sites covering 10,000 hectares. The investment will be comprised of 3x500 MW plants and single plants of 100 MW and 400 MW. The capacity
created would be equal to 38 % of the current total installed capacity in Morocco. The generation from
these plants would be 4,500 GWh per year, corresponding to 18% of the current annual generation.
The cost, as estimated in the solar plan, would be 70 billion Moroccan Dirhams ((9 billion US dollars).
The schedule is demanding; the first plant is to be commissioned in 2015 and the final component by
the end of 2019. It is envisaged that the programme would save approximately 1 million toe per year,
with a value at present prices of about $ 500 million dollars and would save about 3.7 billion tonnes of
CO2 emissions each year.
5.2.3
Scope of the Case Study
The overall objective of this case study is to examine the consequences for the investment process of
an agreement within Europe to attribute subsidies to CSP developments outside Europe and to use
some or all of the certified renewable production to meet internal targets. Specifically we propose that
EU Member States can purchase certificates of renewable origin at a negotiated price from the project. In reality these contracts would need to be in place before financial closure could be achieved.
The EU Member States can then set these against their renewable obligations within the EU.
Specific objectives are:
• To examine what level of support would be needed to make CSP in Morocco cost-effective,
• To compare the necessary subsidy to existing subsidies operating in Europe,
• To draw some conclusions as to the nature and viability of the European instrument proposed.
5.2.4
Evidence-based Policy Making
The procedure that we have proposed to implement evidence-based policy making comprises the following steps.
1. Alternative forms of intervention need to be reviewed and short-listed. Evidence of the success or failure of similar instruments in developed and developing countries needs to be studied with special emphasis on the conditions that created success and failure
2. There must always be a base-case against which alternatives are screened. Alternatives
should include all available instruments.
- 51 -
3. All the relevant potential impacts need to be identified and where possible, quantified
4. Impacts should be assessed in consultation with the subjects of policy
5. The cost of compliance needs to be assessed. Consideration should be given to how these
costs can be minimized. It is necessary to consider who pays the compliance costs; there
are generally alternatives with different implications for equity. The procedures for compliance need to be worked out as does the procedure for monitoring impacts.
6. Indicators need to be established of what is expected from the policy measures. These indicators should cover outputs, outcomes and impacts. Intermediate indicators are important in
helping understand how policies work, how measures interact and how they can be improved
7. Quantitative analysis of impacts is essential. The analytical method most commonly used is
economic cost-benefit analysis.
8. Cost-benefit analysis should take into account opportunity costs of energy and external environmental costs.
9. Multi-criteria analysis maybe a useful support to decision making; sensitivity analysis is one
expression of this idea
The first five steps are discussed in this section; the formulation of indicators is discussed in the section on theory-based evaluation and the last three steps are demonstrated in the section on economic
cost-benefit assessment.
5.2.4.1
Alternative Forms of Intervention
There are other ways in which pilot plants could be financed to prove the technical and economic feasibility:
1.
2.
3.
Finance of the plant by multi-lateral financial institutions;
Finance by a direct transfer from the budget of the European Union;
An agreement by the European Union to pay a premium from the European budget for every
kWh generated from the plant, the immediate finance coming presumably from European and
Moroccan equity partners plus loans from commercial banks secured on the promise of the EU
performance payment.
None of these are attractive options, for the following reasons:
• Finance of the plant by multi-lateral financial institutions would require a grant of $2,500 million, assuming a capital cost of $5,000 / kW. This would simply be too much to contemplate. Soft loans
might be an adequate incentive, but it is uncertain and anyway they would be difficult to mobilise in
such a volume. It is not obvious that development banks would see such a project as making a
contribution to development commensurate with the cost. Moreover, there is little performancebased incentive in this option. The only incentive to generate is the opportunity cost of the electricity displaced by the CSP plant.
• Similar arguments apply to the second option. The amount involved is very large for a single project that gives no tangible return to the donor. Again, there is little performance-based incentive in
this option. The only incentive to generate is the opportunity cost of the electricity displaced.
• The third option has the advantage that it gives stronger performance-based incentives. The subsidy from external sources is only paid if the project works. This option therefore transfers some
risk to the developers, but it is a risk that they might well be prepared to take. The main obstacle is
that it is still difficult to see sufficient benefit to the European Union to justify the very large commitment. The climate change benefits would materialise and arguably, at a European level, the
benefits of industrial policy would also be achieved. But there is no direct gain to the European
- 52 -
economy or to specific Member States.
The proposal which we make here has several attractions. It is performance-based because the subsidies are only paid for power generated; it will generate the industrial benefits by providing skills and
experience to European contractors; it will benefit the global environment and it will benefit the particular EU Member States by alleviating the difficulties of meeting their renewable targets. It also demonstrates a sustainable policy instrument that in the long-term can serve as the basis for plants that provide also a physical supply of energy to Europe. It does require however some modification to European law.
In any event the plant would also be eligible for finance through the CDM; the extra payments for “renewable values” would be additional. This "renewable value" is the cost difference between solar electricity generation and the conventional electricity generation. The costs-benefit analysis in Section
5.2.6 presents a numerical example of how these "renewable values" could be determined.
5.2.4.2
Base Case
The intention of the case study is to demonstrate the technical and economic performance of the
plant, but also the viability of the policy instrument. The question to answer is whether the plant will
pay its way as a stand-alone plant on Moroccan soil, taking into account the supplementary payments
received from the CDM and the postulated “renewable values”.
The base case therefore is a comparison with the marginal plant that would otherwise be built in Morocco, which we take to be a steam cycle burning imported coal.
5.2.4.3
Impacts
The impacts of the policy are the savings of fossil fuel and consequently the reduction in GHG emissions.
In order to claim for CERs, the energy savings have to be calculated. The key parameters include: the
running hours of the new plant and the electricity generated. The energy savings are multiplied by the
emissions from the alternative investment to calculate the emission reductions by the programme.
5.2.4.4
Consultation
Considerable consultation would be required to implement this scheme. It will be require considerable
effort within the European Commission services to develop and promote the concept, to draft the legislation and to persuade Member States. It will also require considerable diplomatic effort to create
agreement with the host countries and to define the geographical area in which the policy would operate. The climate change benefits and industrial benefits would occur in varying degrees wherever the
plant was located, but the third motivation to provide a clean source of physical power to Europe can
only be satisfied if plants are located in countries with existing transmission links or a reasonable
chance of creating them.
There will also need to be a long negotiating period between the parties making the development and
those buying the CERs, the electricity and the “renewable values”. There may be difficulties in persuading the host country (in this case Morocco) to value the electricity, that can at present only be sold
- 53 -
to the local grid, at the opportunity cost and not at the cost of the subsidised fuels.
5.2.4.5
Compliance
It will be necessary to monitor the plant to verify the electricity generated, but this is not demanding.
5.2.5
5.2.5.1
Theory-based Evaluation
Methodology
Evaluation of a project depends upon an underlying belief in how actors will be affected by the policy
and how they will respond. We call this belief a “behavioural model”. We specify the behavioural
model as a causal sequence in which the successive steps of policy implementation are shown in the
first column and then in subsequent columns are listed various indicators, risks and assumptions. The
successive steps of the policy may or may not specify recognisable behavioural assumptions; it depends very much on the type of policy investigated.
5.2.5.2
Indicators
Indicators need to be established of what is expected from the policy measures. These indicators
should cover outputs, outcomes and impacts. Intermediate indicators are important in helping understand how policies work, how measures interact and how they can be improved
• Inputs are the financial, human, technical or organizational resources used in the endeavour,
• Outputs are objectively verifiable indicators that demonstrate the progress made in implementing
the measures,
• Outcomes are the immediate effects on the regulated subject,
• Impacts are direct measurements of the improvements that the programme is designed to bring
about.
5.2.5.3
Behavioural Matrix
The behavioural model is a formal description of the process of implementation, the concerns to be
raised at each stage and the measures that are to be adopted to make everything is working as expected. It provides a structure for the analytical steps and indicates the evidence that should be
sought at each stage to support assertions or on which to found analysis. It allows the issues that
might affect implementation to be identified and it allows different stakeholders to debate around a
clear and concrete representation of the policy. In later stages it serves as the basis for monitoring and
evaluation.
The behavioural model in this case is shown in Table 28.
- 54 -
Table 28:
Behavioural matrix for CSP and a European Purchase Scheme for Renewable Values
Behavioural
model
Indicators
Input
Output
Outcome
• European and
neighbouring
governments
agree policy instrument
• Banks and equity investors
agree project
concept
• Time and of officials, consultancy ($)
• Ratified policy
(Y/N)
• Developers
form consortia
and register interest (#)
• Staff time, consultancy ($)
• PPA agreed
with Morocco
Risks
Assumptions
• No political
agreement is
reached
• Political will to
overcome obstacles
• MoU among partners (#)
• No viable project concepts;
risk perception
too great
• Agreed PPA (Y/N)
• GoL will undervalue power
• Purchase of renewable certificates agreed
with European
governments
• Registration
under CDM
• Agreed contracts
(Y/N)
• Preliminary
technical and
economic
prospects are
good
• Morocco needs
additional
power plant
• European purchasers need
certificates –
other sources
inadequate
• Registration (Y/N)
• Plant built and
commissioned
• Construction
costs, consultancy ($)
• Operating plant
(Y/N)
• Revenues received for elec-
• Revenue stream
($)
Impact
• Financial closure (Y/N)
• Registration
not achieved
• Electricity and
certificates delivered
in
amounts foreseen (#)
• Volume of CO2
emission reduction (#).
• Avoided consumption of imported coal (#)
• Wide array of
technical risks
• Credit risk of
counterparty
• Developers will
accept risk of
non-registration
- 55 -
Behavioural
model
Indicators
Input
Output
tricity
• Revenues from
sale of renewable certificates
• Revenue stream
($)
• CERs issued
and sold
• Revenue stream
($)
Outcome
Note on symbols:
• ? indicates indicator that cannot be quantified, but can be assesses qualitatively
Impact
Risks
• Purchasers reduce cost of
compliance
with renewable
targets ($)
• Market risk –
price volatility
Assumptions
- 56 -
5.2.6
5.2.6.1
Economic Cost-Benefit Assessment
Methodology Applied
Quantitative analysis of impacts is essential. The analytical method most commonly used is the costbenefit analysis for specific investment proposals, strategies of policies. Cost-benefits analyses have
often to be completed by analytical studies analysing the development of entire sectors, such as electricity master plans with least-cost power expansion plans.
Cost-benefit analysis should take into account opportunity costs of energy and external environmental costs, particularly of the avoided emissions of carbon. But it is not always possible to identify
and to quantify these external effects. Therefore, multi-criteria analysis is a useful support to decision making
In the following a simplified cost-benefit analysis of the CSP technology option for Morocco is presented. The electricity that is saved by building a CSP plant would otherwise be generated using imported coal. The analysis concentrates on the comparison of the cost of supply of one additional kWh,
either using imported coal or solar energy. This comparison is done for Morocco in form of an economic analysis. The electricity supply would be entrusted to independent power producers (IPP). The
difference between the cost of CSP generation and the cost of electricity generation based on coal
was defined earlier as "renewable value", which has to be covered by national or international agreements.
The economic assessment of CSP therefore obliges us to consider what value to give to the opportunity cost to Morocco of electricity generated from imported coal.
The key parameters for the assessment are:
• Costs and performance of a coal fired plant
• Opportunity cost for coal to be used in Morocco,
• Return on investment requirements IPPs, either for coal-fired development or for CSP (this return
on investment will be used for bank financing and the required return on equity capital).
It is assumed that coal-based electricity generation is a conventional business in Morocco and the
rules for IPPs are clearly defined; in this case a Return on Investment of 10% is considered as being
sufficiently attractive. The investment in CSP by IPPs is a totally new business in Morocco; it is assumed that the perceived risk related to such an investment is considered significantly higher, leading
to a higher required return on investment of 20% for the CSP investor.
The following table summaries the key-parameters for the analysis. The analysis assumes a time horizon of 40 years.
- 57 -
Table 29:
5.2.6.2
General Parameters for the Assessment
CSP - Assumptions and Data Base
The costs and performance of CSP are yet to be well established and in the context of this case study
no detailed analysis could be performed. The figures adopted below are primarily for illustration. The
principal technical assumptions of the analysis in the reference case are:
Table 30:
Key-data for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Plant
Investment cost of CSP unit
4000
$/kW
Year 1
1000
$/kW
Year 2
1000
$/kW
Year 3
1000
$/kW
Year 4
1000
$/kW
Disbursements
Generation
Year 2
12.5%
Year 3
37.5%
Year 4
62.5%
Lifetime
40
Re-investment after 20 years (% of total investment)
50%
Load factor
25%
years
%
The economic value of the CSP electricity generation we assume to be based on the opportunity cost
of electricity generation from the alternative marginal source, i.e. coal based generation using imported coal. This depends strongly on the assessment of the opportunity cost of electricity determined
by the investment costs for coal fuelled generation plant and the value of imported coal, which is a
complex matter and is discussed in the next section.
It is assumed that the return on investment for the IPP-investor is 20%, while the loan financing will be
possible with 8% interest and a loan repayment period of 20 years.
- 58 -
Table 31:
CSP - Financing conditions
The simplified cash-flow model is given in the following table. With these stated technical and financial
conditions the levelised cost (over a period of 40 years) are 31.89 US-cent / kWh, taking into account
the loan covering 70% of the investment costs with 8% interest rate.
- 59 -
Table 32:
CSP - Determination of Levelised Costs
- 60 -
5.2.6.3
Cost of Electricity Generated with Imported Coal
The opportunity cost for electricity generated from coal in Morocco was calculated earlier in the first
case study for Morocco analysing wind energy option. The same data are used here. The following table summarises the data basis for the coal based electricity generation.
Table 33:
Coal Based Electricity Generation - Data and Assumptions
- 61 -
Table 34:
Coal Based Electricity Generation - Determination of Levelised Costs
- 62 -
5.2.6.4
Comparison of Costs of Electricity Supply
In the previous sections the levelised costs for coal fuelled electricity generation (7.69 US-cent / kWh)
generation and solar based CSP generation were determined (31.89 US-cent / kWh). The resulting
values are illustrated in figure below. These levelised costs would offer the respective IPP investors
the required return on investment. The difference of 24.20 US-cent / kWh would be the "renewable
value", the higher cost due to renewable electricity generation in Morocco.
Figure 8:
Coal Power Plant and CSP - Comparison Levelised Costs
35
31.89
30
24.20
US-cent / kWh
25
20
15
7.69
10
5
0
Coal
CSP
Renew able value
Cost of electricity supply
The following figure illustrates the development of the annual generation costs. The high annual cost
of the CSP plant during the first 20 years is due to the high debt service. The annual cost for coal
based generation is increasing during the planning period due to the increase in the coal prices.
Figure 9:
Coal-electricity and CSP - Comparison of electricity supply costs
35
US-cent / kWh
30
25
20
15
10
5
Year
Coal based
CSP based
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
0
- 63 -
5.2.6.5
Impact of Carbon Credits on "Renewable Values"
An electricity generation using solar energy would benefit from the flexible mechanisms introduced by
the Kyoto Protocol. To illustrate the impacts of the carbon credits on the "renewable values" the following carbon credits were considered in the cash flow analysis.
The result is illustrated in Figure 10, in the case of 50 USD / the "renewable value" would be reduced
from 24.20 US-cent / kWh down to 20.32 US-cent / kWh.
Figure 10: Impact of Carbon Credits - Reduction "renewable values"
30
US-cent / kWh
25
24.20
22.64
21.87
21.09
20.32
20 USD
30 USD
50 USD
20
15
10
5
0
0 USD
10 USD
Value of CERs / Carbon credits (USD / t CO2)
- 64 -
Figure 11: Development of Additional costs
30.0
US-cent / kWh
25.0
20.0
Additional costs
10 USD / t CO2
15.0
50 USD / t CO2
10.0
5.0
Year
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
0.0
- 65 -
Table 35:
Impact of carbon credits on "renewable values"
- 66 -
5.2.6.6
Sensitivity Test
The base case the "renewable value" (the difference in levelised costs for CSP and coal fuelled electricity generation) was determined to be 24.20 US-cent / kWh - not taking into account possible carbon
credits.
In this section four different sets-of assumptions are defined to illustrate the impacts the stated assumptions have on the value of the "renewable value". The considered cases are (for the assumptions
see Table 36)
Case 1:
Case 2:
Case 3:
Case 4:
Assumptions as stated for the base case,
Favourable financing conditions (longer loan repayment period, lower interest rate and
lower equity requirements,
Assumptions of case 2 plus a higher CSP load factor of 35% (instead 25%) without considering higher investment costs - technical progress would lead to better performance at
the same costs,
Assumptions of case 2 & 3 plus assumed higher coal prices.
The resulting reductions of the "renewable values" - the differences in levelised costs for CSP and
coal fuelled electricity generation are given in the following table.
Table 36:
"Renewable values" - Comparison of cases
The levelised cost difference between CSP and coal electricity generation (defined as "renewable
value") is reduced, down from 24.20 US-cent / kWh to 5.05 US-cent / kWh as it is shown in Table 36.
The more favourable financing conditions assumed under case 2 are the most important factor. They
would lead to a reduction of the "renewable value" from 24.20 US-cent / kWh down to 12.62 US-cent /
kWh. The improved conditions are longer repayment periods, lower return on equity requirements and
lower share of IPP's equity capital.
- 67 -
Figure 12: Renewable Values - Comparison of Scenarios
30
US-cent / kWh
25
24.20
20
15
12.62
10
6.82
5.05
&Technology
improvement
& Higher coal
prices
5
0
Base case
& Favourable
financing
Scenarios
5.2.7
Conclusion
5.2.7.1
Methodology
The case study demonstrates the advantages of developing deconstructed versions of policy prescriptions as an aid to analysis and to stimulate focused debate among stakeholders.
In the case of CSP the deconstruction helps to reveal the nature and extent of the financial assistance
that must be made to make the first projects commercial and the need to intervene with performancebased subsidies. This coherent perception helps to frame the definition of the policy instrument and
the cost-benefit analysis.
5.2.7.2
Substance
The cost-benefit analysis compared two possibilities of electricity supply in Morocco, coal-based generation or concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. The economic cost benefit analysis compared these
two options for Morocco assuming that the respective power plants would be built by independent
power producers (IPP) with their respective remuneration requirements for the invested capital.
The analysis results in a difference in supply costs of 24.20 US-cent / kWh, this is the '"renewable
value" the higher cost of solar electricity generation, which would be too high be covered by Morocco
alone.
In form of a sensitivity analysis the impacts of future developments were simulated:
• Improvement of the financing conditions: A reliable regulatory framework together with trusted
contractual arrangements in Morocco and between other countries and Morocco would significantly
reduce the perceived risk and financing at concessional terms would be made available for CSP
investments. Better financing conditions could reduce the "renewable value" by 48% down to 12.62
US-cent / kWh
- 68 -
• Technical developments: Higher load factors - using thermal storages in the CSP plants while
maintaining the capital costs per kW installed - would also lead to more favourable conditions for
CSP generation and would reduce the "renewable value again by 46% down to 6.82US-cent / kWh.
• Future coal price development: Higher coal prices in the future would make the coal thermal
generation more expensive and would lead to a reduction of the "renewable value" by 26% down to
5.05 US-cent / kWh.
• The combination of more favourable finance, better performing technology, higher coal prices and
carbon credits at $50 / t CO2 would bring the difference with conventional generation down to a
little less than 1.17 US-cent / kWh.
5.2.7.3
European Purchase of Renewable Values as a Policy Instrument
The above analysis suggests that CSP will not be built as a commercial venture in the short term without considerable support from industrialised countries of several sorts. An important part of that support should comprise a performance related payment based on a subsidy per kWh produced. The
value of that subsidy would depend inter alia on what other support was available.
In practice it would be easier to adjust concessional financial conditions to a value of the kWh fixed for
some time to provide stability and confidence. The concessional element of finance could be reduced
as the technology matures to account for improving technology and lower risk perceptions, whilst
keeping the performance related subsidy fixed.
A simple way of creating this arrangement would be to certify the renewable character of the electricity
produced and then to allow European countries to purchase these certificates and to off-set them
against the 20% European renewable target. A given project could have several contracts for these
renewable values with different countries. There is no reason why a secondary market should not also
be allowed among member states of the EU.
- 69 -
6.
Institutional Reform in Morocco – Some Possibilities
Renewable energies on their way, but alternative strategies recommendable
Political support for renewable energies is moving into a very promising direction. Thanks to favourable natural conditions the potentials for the use of renewables are very high; especially wind power
thanks to strong and steady winds at the Atlantic coast. Unlike other countries of North Africa Morocco
is therefore strongly moving into wind power with similar targets as for solar power (mainly CSP): 1 – 2
GW of generation capacity of each wind power and CSP by 2020 seem a reacheable target. These
ambitious plans have to be throughly analysed further in terms of integration of electricity from renewable energies into the currently small Moroccan grid (share of 40 % renewables in total generation capacity by 2020).
The institutional framework to realise these targets has been created already demonstrating Morocco’s political will. Important drivers are the reduction of energy import dependence (mainly from
coal) and renewable energies as industrial stimuli and job engines.
Ongoing projects should be implemented without delay, and it is recommended to give necessary political support, if this can further facilitate implementation. Such rapid implementation could put Morocco in a favourable position by presenting itself as a reliable country for foreign investors. This is
valid for the wind farm projects as well as for the CSP plant that is currently in the construction phase.
It might prove useful to set up alternative strategies in the field of CSP, if it can be foreseen in the
coming few years that the ambitious targets for 2020 won’t get realised. Problems could arise as the
erection of CSP plants is not yet industrial standard and learning effects have yet to be realised.
Therefore it could prove helpful to make regular assessments and evaluations of the status quo to be
able to adjust incentives to reach the renewables targets.
Formulation of energy efficiency targets and policies
Currently energy efficiency is fostered only to a low degree in Morocco. There are some promising
steps; however, an energy efficiency strategy with precise targets, measures and instruments has not
been formulated. This should be made a top priority in the policy formulation process, as energy savings can be realised quickly and cost-effectively to generate economic benefits on all stages of state
and economy. The combination of energy efficiency and renewable energies provides even larger
economic and social benefits (job creation, ecological benefits, extended CDM opportunities). So it
might be a valuable approach in Morocco to formulate a combined efficiency-renewables strategy.
Building standards are underway as an energy saving approach. However, it is not clear when they
will come into force. A set of concrete steps, gathered in a roadmap, would be an appropriate frame
for mid- to long-term implementation of standards. A roadmap would also facilitate the communication
of targets to the public.
No approaches in the transport sector
In the transport sector no energy saving approaches are undertaken so far. There are neither maximum consumption or emissions standards nor integrated approaches of transport planning in large cities. However, as the number of vehicles on Moroccan roads is growing, such approaches should be
taken into consideration to avoid severe traffic problems and air pollution in the future.
Push for secondary legislation
Secondary legislation is setting the frame to implement overarching political targets. In the renewables
and the efficiency fields such secondary legislation should be pushed forward to create a reliable and
transparent framework for investments. This is also of importance in the building sector. Hence
frameworks for large scale as well as small scale investments should be introduced soon to keep Morocco on its promising track.
Annex 1
Mission Report
Mission Report
The country mission was successfully completed in the time span of November 2 to 6, 2009. The mission programme had been prepared with very good support from the Maroccan representative in
RCREEE's Board of Trustees. Meetings were held in Casablanca (November 2) and in Rabat (November 3 and 4), where also the half day workshop was held (November 5). The mission programme
was as follows:
Date
2 Nov.
2 Nov.
2 Nov
3 Nov
3 Nov
3 Nov
4 Nov
4 Nov
4 Nov
4 Nov
5 Nov.
5 Nov
Programme Item
Meeting with AMISOLE Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires et Eoliennes
Meeting with ONE Office National de l' Electricité
Meeting with OFFPT
Meeting with Ministère de l'habitat de l'industrie et de l'aménagement de l'espace
Meeting with CDER Centre de Development de l'Energie Renouvable
Meeting with Ministry of Energy Mines, Water and Environment
Meeting with CIEDE Centre d'information sur l'énergie durable et l'environnement
Meeting with JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency
Meeting with GTZ
Meeting with TARGA - AIDE
Half day Seminar
internal project team meeting
Most of the organisations visited were represented at the half day seminar. Other organisations that
could not be visited sent participants to the half day seminar. A list of stakeholders is attached in the
following Annex 2. Some 15 persons attended the seminar and engaged in lively discussions.
The seminar was held at the Ibis Hotel Moussafir in Rabat. The seminar was opened by Eng. Zohra
Ettai, who is the Division Chief for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in the Ministry of Energy,
Mines, Water and Environment and the Maroccan member of RCREEE's Board of Trustees. In her
opening remarks she gave the background of the Maroccan achievments in EE and RE. The seminar
also had the priviledge of the presence of HE Mrs. Anne-Marie Esper Larsen, the Danish Ambassadeur in Rabat. She welcomed the participants and informed them, how this project fit into the context of the Danish cooperation. RCREEE was represented by Mrs. Amel Bida, who gave a presentation on RCREEE, its (young) history, its structure, its activities and its vision. She emphasised that
RCREEE was a regional initiative and that it supports regional activities emenating from the member
countries.
The seminar had three main objectives (1) to promote RCREEE in Morocco, (2) to discuss with stakeholders the findings of the mission and (3) to introduce the participants to the ideas of Evidence Based
Policy Making and Theory Based Policy Evaluation by giving a detailed presentation on that topic (Annex 4) and by presenting case studies illuminating the methodology (Chapter 5 above). Finally the
seminar was used to give a preview on the national information workshop on EE and RE policy development.
Annex 2
Organisation
Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment
Ministère de l'habitat de l'industrie
et de l'aménagement de l'espace
Ministère de l'habitat de l'industrie
et de l'aménagement de l'espace
Office National
de L'Energie
Centre d'information sur l'énergie
durable et l'environnement
Centre de Développment des
Energies Renouvelables
Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires
et Eoliennes
Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires
et Eoliennes
TARGA - AIDE
Contact Person
Mrs. Zohra
Ettaik
Position
email
Head of Renewable
Energy and Energy Efficiency Department
[email protected]
Soraya Khalil
Chef de Service de l'efficacité énergetique et
des energies renouvables
[email protected]
Reda Eluanti
Chef de Service de la
Normalisation
[email protected]
Mohammed
Jawa Salhi
Abdelali Dakkina
Chef du Project Principal EnergiPro
Director CIEDE
[email protected]
Mohamed
Berdai
Director for internationa
cooperation
[email protected]
Ahmed
Soualli
President
Khalil Semmaoui
Adrien Thollet
Ambassade
Royale du Danmark
GTZ
Anne-Marie
Esper Larsen
JICA
Aoki Toshimichi
Dieter Uh
[email protected]
[email protected]
Chargé de projets
energie/environnement
Ambassadeur
Conseiller Technique
Principal
Représentant Résident
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Annex 3
Seminar Programme
Economical, Technological and Environmental
Impact Assessment of National Regulations
and Incentives for Renewable Energy and
Energy Efficiency
A project financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark
Méthodes et politiques de mise en place de
l’efficacité énergétique et de l’énergie renouvelable
Séminaire d’une demi-journée – Rabat, IBIS Moussafir Hotel
5 novembre 2009, 9.00 h. – 13.00 h.
Objectif du séminaire: Le séminaire contribue à la réalisation de l'objectif du projet, qui consiste à
soutenir l'effort global du RCREEE afin de garantir un meilleur flux d’informations, de même que des
outils et méthodes de planification auprès des administrations des Etats membres.
Le séminaire fournira une introduction aux politiques fondées sur des données probantes et à
l’évaluation de politiques à fondement théorique, de manière à assurer la mise en place de l'efficacité
énergétique et de l'énergie renouvelable. De plus, le séminaire permettra de débattre certaines observations préliminaires recueillies en Maroc.
Le séminaire sera structuré comme suit:
1. Accueil des participants par le Représentant de la Ministère de l'Energie, Mines, d'Eau et de
l'Environnement
2. Accueil des participants par HE Mme. Anne-Marie Esper Larsen, Ambassadeur danoise en
Maroc
3. Introduction au RCREEE par Mme. Bida Amel
4. Introduction au projet ainsi qu’au séminaire, effectuée par le Chef de Mission, Monsieur Florian Sauter-Servaes
5. Méthodologie : Formulation de politiques fondées sur des données probantes et évaluation de
politiques à fondement théorique, présentée par Monsieur Nigel Lucas
6. Situation des politiques d’efficacité énergétique et d’énergie renouvelable, de même que leurs
développements en Maroc, exposé de Messieurs Mohamed Aboufirasse et Nikolaus Supersberger
7. Présentation du programme de l'atelier national, qui aura lieu au mois de décembre 2009,
sous la tutelle de Monsieur Martin Ehrlich
8. Discussion générale - dejeuner.
Annex 4
Presentation on Methodology
Evaluation des impacts économiques, technologiques et environnementaux des réglementations et
mesures d’encouragement nationales pour l’énergie renouvelable et l’efficacité énergétique
Projet financé par le Ministère des Affaires Etrangères du Danemark
Formulation de politiques fondées sur des
données probantes et
évaluation de politiques à fondement théorique
Nigel Lucas
Page 1
Rabat: Séminaire sur les méthodes et
politiques, 5 Novembre 2009
Sommaire
•
•
•
•
Page 2
Formulation de politiques fondées sur des données probantes
Evaluation de politiques à fondement théorique
Les interdépendances
– théorie
– indicateurs
Comment procéder à une adaptation?
Que signifie formuler une politique sur des données probantes ?
•
•
•
Page 3
Qu’est-ce que formuler des politiques sur des données
probantes ?
Quelle en est l’utilité? Qu’a-t-on utiliser jusqu’à présent pour
formuler une politique?
Qu’est-ce qu’une donnée probante?
Que signifie formuler une politique sur des données probantes ?
Il existe de nombreuses définitions, cependant le terme signifie simplement:
« Une méthode de formulation et de mise en œuvre de politiques au travers de
techniques rigoureuses afin de développer et de maintenir une base solide de
données probantes qui permettra d’élaborer des variantes de politiques ».
Etant donné que toutes les politiques sont basées sur des données probantes –
les questions suivantes se posent:
– les données probantes sont-elles fiables ?
– le procédé qui consiste à transposer les données probantes en politiques
est-il adapté au besoin ?
Page 4
Quelle en est l’utilité?
• Une politique est souvent sujette à des préjudices ou à des pressions
politiques à court terme
• Une politique est formulée par de petits groupes – elle reflète les préférences
et les perceptions de ce groupe – ce qui varie lorsque le groupe change – ceci
est inacceptable pour les « stakeholders »– car cela signifie partialité et
instabilité
• Les consultants et les agences internationales prescrivent souvent des
remèdes fait maison, qui ne sont pas absolument appropriés. Le
mimétisme n'est pas une politique.
• Les agences ont leurs propres calendriers et visions, lesquels peuvent entrer
en conflit avec eux-mêmes ou avec les visions du gouvernement
• Les pays ont besoin de capacités internes solides afin d’analyser et d’évaluer
des politiques et des procédés plus transparents
• Le besoin perçu est une politique plus stable et plus solide avec une plus
grande acceptance.
Page 5
•
La base de données probantes doit être à la fois assez étendue que
pour développer un éventail d'options politiques et assez détaillée que
pour que ces options puissent passer un examen minutieux et
approfondi.
•
Une approche sur la base de données probantes devrait montrer la
continuité entre la prévision, la stratégie, la politique et la mise en
œuvre
•
Des données probantes ne signifient pas nécessairement des faits
solides tels que des informations scientifiques, bien qu’il soit important
que ces données soient vérifiables
•
Une donnée probante est n'importe quelle information pouvant être
utilisée pour transposer des objectifs politiques en instruments politique
réalisables et efficaces
Page 6
•
On peut distinguer trois composantes principales:
- données solides (faits, tendances, informations collectées)
- raisonnement analytique qui traite ces données de processus pour
cerner les problèmes
- avis des parties concernées (« stakeholders » institutions financières,
investisseurs, bénéficiers)
-
La recherche, l'analyse de l'opinion des « stakeholders », la sensibilité et
l’opinion publique, les analyses coûts/bénéfices, la modélisation économique
et statistique sont des sources des données probantes importantes
•
Le jugement de la qualité des méthodes utilisées pour recueillir et synthétiser
les informations est essentiel.
Page 7
Le fait de disposer de bonnes données probantes n’est pas suffisant
Il ya des processus politiques qui:
Bonne utilisation
Faible utilisation
Utiliser de bonnes
informations
Utiliser de faibles
informations
On nécessite donc
des données probantes et des processus
Page 8
Formulation d’une politique sur des données probantes (I)
• Des formes alternatives d'intervention doivent être passées en revue et
retenues. Le succès ou l'échec obtenu par des instruments similaires dans des
pays développés ou en voie de développement doit être étudié, en tenant
compte particulièrement des conditions qui ont mené au succès ou à l'échec.
• Il doit toujours y avoir un scénario de base qui sera confronté à des solutions
alternatives afin de les examiner. Les solutions alternatives doivent tenir compte
de tous les instruments disponibles.
• Tous les impacts potentiels importants doivent être identifiés et dans la mesure
du possible, quantifiés.
• Des indicateurs doivent être définis afin de traduire les attentes des mesures
politiques. Ces indicateurs devront couvrir les rendements, les résultats et les
impacts.
• Les indicateurs intermédiaires sont importants car ils permettent d’aider à
comprendre le fonctionnement des politiques, l’interaction des mesures et la
manière de les améliorer.
Page 9
Formulation d’une politique sur des données probantes (II)
• Les impacts devront être évalués en consultation avec les sujets de la
politique
• Le coût de la conformité doit être évalué. Il faudra voir comment réduire
ces coûts au minimum.
• Il est nécessaire d’examiner qui paye les coûts de conformité ; il y a
généralement des solutions alternatives avec différents effets sur l’équité.
• Les procédures de conformité doivent être établies pour examiner les
impacts de la surveillance.
• L'analyse quantitative des impacts est essentielle. La méthode analytique
généralement la plus utilisée est l’analyse économique des coûtsbénéfices. L'analyse coûts-bénéfices devra considérer les coûts
d'opportunité de l'énergie ainsi que les coûts environnementaux
externes.
• L'analyse multicritère est un appui utile dans la prise de décision.
Page 10
Que signifie évaluer une politique à fondement théorique?
• L’évaluation d’une politique à fondement théorique se concentre sur
l’analyse d’une séquence théorique ou logique, par laquelle une
intervention politique est susceptible de conduire aux effets souhaités.
• Par extension, une évaluation une politique à fondement théorique peut
supposer les étapes implicites entre l’initiation d’une politique (par ex.
introduction de normes de rendement énergétique minimal) et la finalisation
d’une politique (pour la réduction de la consommation énergétique et des
GES). Le schéma ci-dessous décrit la théorie implicite de la formulation
d’une politique:
Introduction des
normes de
rendement
énergétique minimal
(« MEPS »)
Page 11
Le consommateur est
en mesure d’émettre
un meilleur jugement
et modifie son
comportement
Les fabricants sont
incités à fournir des
modèles plus
efficients
Modification du
marché: disparition
du matériel
inefficient
La consommation
énergétique et les
émissions CO2
régressent ;
augmentation des
fabrications locales/
nationales
Indicateurs et modèles théorétiques (labels et normes)
Indicators
Causal sequence
Risks
Input
Development of
standards and
supporting
measures
Manufacturers
incentivised to
make more
efficient models
Consumers choose
better devices; do
not seek noncompliant cheaper
goods
Electricity
consumption
lowered
Page 12
Output
• Administrative
time and effort
• Standards
published and
supporting
measures in
place
• New investment
and production
measures ($)
• Strengthened
manufacturing
capacity inspection
• Administrative
time and effort
in ensuring
compliance ($)
• More
discriminating
purchases
• Consumer
normally pays
more ($)
Outcome
• Consumer
surveys show
consumers and
manufacturers
change
expectations
• Range of new
products
determined by
survey
• Consumers
purchase better
quality products
– consumer and
market surveys
• Better capital
stock in
households –
household
surveys; market
studies
Assumptions
Impact
Inadequate
accompanying
measures;
consumers
unaware or
unaffected
Manufacturers
have confidence in
regulatory system
Low cost noncompliant goods
excluded from
market
• Lifetime cost
decreases
• Electricity
consumption
decreases
• CO2 emissions
decrease
• Manufacturing
base
strengthened
Théories alternatives
Introduction des
normes de
rendement
énergétique minimal
(« MEPS »)
Le consommateur est
indifférent à la question
de consommation
d’énergie, c’est
uniquement le prix qui
l’intéresse
Les fabricants sont
obligés de fournir des
modèles plus
efficients
Le marché est ruiné
en raison de la
mauvaise qualité du
matériel fraudé
La consommation
énergétique et les
émissions CO2
augmentent ;
diminution des
fabrications locales/
nationales
• Si l’on ne peut pas cerner les défaillances des séquences causales selon
laquelle une politique devrait fonctionner, les résultats seront mauvais ou
même contradictoires.
• Une politique à fondement théorique ne constitue pas une prévention
contre les modèles inadéquats, mais elle détermine les indicateurs à
prendre en considération pour assurer un bon déroulement.
Page 13
Indicateurs
Des indicateurs devront être déterminés afin de définir les attentes de
ces mesures politiques. Ceci est essentiel pour réaliser une évaluation.
Les indicateurs devront couvrir :
• les entrées c-à-d. les ressources financières, humaines, techniques ou
organisationnelles utilisées pour l'effort
• les rendements (indicateurs objectivement vérifiables qui démontrent le
progrès accompli en mettant en application les mesures, par exemple la
création d'une norme de rendement énergétique minimal),
• les résultats (effets immédiats sur le sujet résolu, par exemple l'offre de
nouveaux produits et le rééquipement des chaînes de production)
• les impacts (évaluation directe des améliorations apportées par le
programme conçu, par exemple des produits plus efficaces ou une
consommation énergétique inférieure).
Page 14
Indicateurs intermédiaires
• Les indicateurs d'impact indiquent si les résultats visés ont été obtenus
• Dans la plupart des cas, ils ne sont pas suffisants à eux seuls
• Les indicateurs intermédiaires sont utiles et réellement nécessaires
pour vérifier la théorie de fondement.
Page 15
Théorie et cycle politique
Données
Evidence
probantes
formulate
Formulation
Foresight
Prévisions
Reformulation
reformulate
Implémentation
Implement
Theory
Théorie
Model
Modèle
Indicateurs
Indicators
evaluate
Evaluation
Page 16
monitor
Surveillance
Qui paye et comment?
• L'efficacité énergétique est gagnant-gagnant pour les deux parties.
S’il n’y a aucun aboutissement - c'est une question sensiblement
d‘intervention d’ordre public. Si les coûts sont moindres : bénéfices
pour l’Etat et pour les entreprises
• L’énergie renouvelable ; ici, ce n'est pas aussi clair. Dans la plupart
des cas, elle est certainement plus coûteuse que les autres solutions
alternatives.
• Pourquoi le Maroc devrait-il payer cette différence ?
• Si pas le Maroc, alors qui et comment ? Le CDM ? Les politiques et les
mesures (PAMs)
• Si l’on ne sait pas clairement qui doit ou est disposé à prendre en
charge les coûts additionnels, il est difficile d’assurer une politique
cohérente pour l’énergie renouvelable.
Page 17
Prix du carbone
• 0$/tonne
• 2$/tonne
• 10$/tonne
• 50$/tonne
Page 18
• 0$/tonne
$0 / kW
• 2$/tonne
$34 / kW
• 10$/tonne
$170 / kW
• 50$/tonne
$850 /kW
Outils de formulation politique
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Page 19
Introduction
Objectifs et exigences des mécanismes de soutien ER & EE
Enumération des outils
a) Formulation de politiques fondées sur des données probantes
b) Evaluation de politiques à fondement théorique
c) Analyse coûts-bénéfices
Etudes de cas
a) Introduction
b) Cadre réglementaire ER
c) Mesures d’encouragement pour les chauffe-eau photovoltaïques
d) Financement par le CDM (cf. décharges)
e) Stratégie de transformation de marché pour ER (pv)
f) Obligations d’EE
g) Fonds d’EE
h) Audits énergétiques
i) Sociétés de services énergétiques
j) Labels et normes
k) Campagnes de sensibilisation publique?
Instruments combinés
a) Législation
b) Agence
c) Stratégie nationale
Assistance technique
Merci pour
votre attention
Page 20
Annex 5
Energy Situation in Morocco
Energy Situation in Marocco
1. Morocco’s Energy Mix and Energy Demand
Morocco is a net importer of energy. In 2008 it imported about 98% of its primary energy supply to satisfy a total energy consumption of 14.7 Mtoe worth approximately DH 71 billion (US$2008 9.2 billion). In
2008 Morocco’s GDP was DH 670.6 billion (US$2008 86.5 billion), i.e. the cost of energy imports
amounted to 11% of the GDP. The country has virtually no conventional oil or gas reserves: in 2008
the national output of crude oil and condensates was 8.9 kt (or about 65,200 barrels) and that of natural gas about 50 million cubic meters. In order to become more independent of energy imports Morocco is investing heavily in onshore and offshore explorations and surveys with a substantial part of
the financial burden being carried by major international oil companies.
Tab. 1 General Information Morocco
Population
1
(million)
GDP
(billion
1
US$2009)
GDP
(PPP)
(billion
1
US$2009)
Energy
prod.
2
(Mtoe)
Net
energy imports
2
(Mtoe)
Total
Pr Elec.
mary
demand
2
Energy
(TWh)
Supply
2
(Mtoe)
CO2
emiss.
(Mt
of
3
CO2)
31.2
90.5
138.2
0.4
14.3
14.7
40.8
1
IMF (2009)
2
ONHYM (2008a)
3
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only, IEA (2009)
24.0
In 2008 the primary energy sources were petroleum products (60.9%) and coal (25.8%). The remaining energy demand was satisfied by imported electricity (7.5%) and natural gas (3.7%), renewable energy sources covered 2.1%. The net electricity consumption was 24 TWh in 2008, an increase of
about 6% compared to 22.6 TWh in 2007. Morocco’s electricity production is heavily based on fossil
fuels with a share of 7% from renewable energy sources (hydro and wind power).
Similar to its neighboring countries Morocco has seen a significant increase in energy and electricity
demand. In the past five years electricity demand rose on average by 5% per year and is expected to
increase by 7 to 8.5% per year in the next 10 years. Energy consumption per capita has increased
from 0.34 toe per year in 2000 to 0.4 toe per year in 2006.
The energy mix is expected to change significantly over the next decade. According to the “Programme national de développement des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacité des énergies renouvelables“ (PNDEREE) the share of renewable energies is planned to increase to about 10% of the total energy consumption by 2012. In the electricity a share of 20% renewable energies by 2012 is targeted.
Regulations and Incentives for RE and EE: Country Report Marocco (Draft)
2. Crude Oil
st
Morocco’s proven oil reserves are very small, cumulating to 750,000 barrels as of January 1 2009.
There is reasonable evidence, however, that there could still be major undiscovered oil and gas deposits. In 1999 a research report indicated that the offshore basin near Tarfaya would be the most
suited area for oil reserves exhibiting a geological structure quite similar to the Gulf of Mexico or offshore regions in Canada where oil has been found.
Over the past years Morocco has successfully pushed for the exploration of possible oil and gas deposits: as of 2008 90% of the onshore surface open to exploration was covered by exploration permits
or reconnaissance contracts. The most promising onshore regions are believed to be in the Gharb and
the Essaouira basin as well as near the Rif, a mountainous region in the north of Morocco. In 2009 the
Irish oil company Circle Oil announced a successful drilling and testing of a gas well in the Rharb region northeast of Rabat; a short-term study showed a sustained rate of 110,000 cubic meters a day.
Also in 2009 Dana Oil claimed to have made a significant discovery of natural gas off the northern
coast of Morocco estimated at about 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. So far, however, there
has been no major breakthrough discovery yet.
Morocco’s oil and gas sector is controlled by the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mining (ONHYM), a state-owned company established in 2005. ONHYM’s general director is Amina Benkhadra,
the Minister of Energy and Mines. Explorations and surveys are partly carried out by ONHYM but
mainly in cooperation with international partners where ONHYM’s share is capped at 25%. Through
the implementation of liberal and investor friendly regulations (tax exemptions, investment incentives
etc.), Morocco has successfully attracted many foreign companies. In 2008 two new petroleum
agreements and three new reconnaissance contracts were signed alongside a number of permit extensions for exploration and reconnaissance projects.
Despite new discoveries and exploration contracts, hydrocarbon production in 2008 was still on the
decline due to exploitation or near-exploitation of old wells. ONHYM reported for 2008 a production of
8,850 tons of condensate and crude oil (-19% compared to 2007) and 49.6 million cubic meters of
natural gas (-18% compared to 2007).
Morocco’s downstream oil capacities are well developed. The country’s two oil refineries have a total
refining capacity of 155,000 barrels per day and are operated by SAMIR, which is owned by the Saudi
company Corral petroleum. An upgrade of the main refinery in Mohammedia completed in 2009 increases the refinery’s capacity and allows for higher quality products and better refining efficiency.
Hence, the refinery’s production margins are projected to increase significantly. The second smaller
refinery at Sidi Kacem is currently shut down and expected to resume production in 2010.
In 2008 oil product consumption was at 9 million tonnes. More than half of the products were imported;
the remainder was produced by the SAMIR refineries. Oil consumption is expected to grow further and
to exceed 10 million tonnes per year by 2012. Currently Morocco is in the process of liberalizing its
hydrocarbon market in order to end the refining and import monopoly of SAMIR and grant access to
mayor international companies such as Shell, Total or Afriquia.
Morroco has the sixth largest proven oil shale reserves in the world, estimated at around 50 billion barrels (as of 2006). The major deposits, located near Tarfaya and Timahdit, are well explored but so far
not commercially exploited. A pilot pyrolysis plant has been in place at Timahdit since 1984. In order to
become less dependent on energy imports and diversify its primary energy sources Morocco has
taken the first step towards commercially exploiting its oil shale reserves: as part of the Plan Nationale
des Actions Prioritaires (PNAP) for 2008-2012 the government plans to invest DH 32 million (US$2008
4.4 million) in the sector and is currently establishing a regulatory framework. There is also a pilot project for oil shale-based power generation under way in Tarfaya.
3. Natural Gas
Similar to its oil reserves Morocco’s proven reserves of natural gas are very small, about 1.5 billion
st
cubic meters as of January 1 2009. As pointed out in the previous section Morocco is investing heavily into finding new natural gas reserves but has not yet succeeded in raising natural gas production. In
2008 natural gas production decreased to 49.6 million cubic meters, which is equivalent to an 18%
decrease compared to 2007.
ONHYM oversees all natural gas related explorations, surveys and drillings. In 2008 natural gas contributed about 4% to national energy consumption. This share is planned to be expanded until 2020 to
more than 20% to meet the rising energy demand and ultimately replace coal and oil fired power
plants. For instance, the Ain Beni Mathar thermo-solar combined cycle power plant with a capacity of
470 MW (450 MW thermal, 20 MW solar) is currently under construction, the natural gas will be provided by the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline. The 384 MW combined cycle plant operating at Tahaddart
since 2005 is also directly connected to the pipeline.
The Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline connects the Hassi R’mel field in Algeria via Morocco and the Strait
of Gibraltar with Spain where it feeds into the European gas grid. It has a capacity of 12 billion cubic
meters per year. Morocco has the right to purchase Algerian gas directly through the pipeline to satisfy
its natural gas demand, in particular for its combined cycle power plants.
In 2004 the Morrocan Ministry of Finance published a report on perspectives of the use of natural gas
in Morocco. The report points to several key arguments that favor the use of natural gas over other
fossil fuels:
• Natural gas may be efficiently used to produce electricity in modern combined cycle power
plants in particular in thermo-solar plants like Ain Beni Mathar
• The prize of gas is comparably stable and the proximity to major gas producing countries and
the easy access via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline reduces transportation costs and risks
• There is still the potential to discover more natural gas on Moroccan territory, which could replace energy imports
4. Electricity
The Moroccan power generation, its transmission and distribution grid was originally exclusively operated by the state owned Office National de l’Electricité (ONE). Since 1999 efforts have been made to
liberalize the power sector. There are now several independent power producers who provided about
60% of the total electricity demand in 2007. The electricity is sold to ONE under long-term purchase
agreements. Morocco is already connected to Europe’s electricity grid and operates at similar standards. At present the total installed transmission capacity to Spain via 400 kV submarine cables is
1,400 MW and is planned to be expanded to 2,100 MW by 2012. There is also already a 400 kV interconnect line connecting Tunisia to Algeria and Algeria to Morocco, the latter with a capacity of 400
MW.
Electricity demand in 2008 was 24 TWh, of which domestic power plants produced 22.2 TWh. The rest
was met by electricity imports mainly from Spain. The installed generation capacity in 2007 totaled
5,292 MW of which 3,449 MW were thermal power plants, 1,729 MW hydroelectric power stations
(464 MW pumped-storage hydroelectric plants) and 114 MW wind farms; see Fig. 1 for an overview of
the electricity production. New data implies that the share of renewable energies has increased since
2007; the wind farm capacity for example has almos doubled since then. The peak demand in 2007
was 3,980 MW, which is equivalent to an increase of 6% to the highest recorded peak in 2006.
Fig. 1 Electricity Production in Morocco. ONE (2007)
The largest single power plant in Morocco is the 1.4 GW Jorf Lasfar facility located 130 km south-west
of Casablanca. In 2007 the coal-powered plant satisfied about 65% of the country’s base-load electricity demand and more than 40% of the total electricity supply according to ONE. The estimated investment costs of US$ 1.5 billion make it the largest independent power project of its kind in Africa. The
original contractors ABB and CMS sold the plant in 2007 to the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company
(TAQA).
With almost 54% of its electricity demand produced by coal powered plants Morocco is heavily dependent on coal imports since domestic coal reserves are small. The coal is mainly imported from the
United States, Colombia and South Africa. According to the National Energy Strategy 2020-2030 published by the government in 2009 coal will for the next decades remain the primary fossil fuel used in
power generation.
Fig. 2 Electricity Consumption Morocco EIA (2009), ONHYM (2008a)
As already pointed out in the first section Morocco’s electricity demand rose on average by about 5%
per year in the past 5 years and is expected to increase by 7 to 8.5% per year in the next 10 years. In
order to meet this demand new facilities are under construction and existing plants are upgraded. The
aim is to diversify the supply sources, expand the share of renewable energies and reduce the country’s energy bill, which has an extremely negative impact on its trade deficit. For an overview of Morocco’s plans for conventional power plants please refer to Tab. 2.
Tab. 2 New conventional power plants in Morocco, status 2008
Under Construction
Planned
888 MW
2,700 MW
472 MW – Ain Beni Mathar (thermo-solar plant)
300 MW – Mohammedia extension (natural gas)
1,320 MW – Safi (IGCC plant)
700 MW – Jorf Lasfar extension (coal)
116 MW – Tan Tan upgrade (diesel)
300 MW – Jerada extension (coal)
300 MW – Kenitra (natural gas)
80 MW – Agadir (diesel)
The National Energy Strategy 2020-2030 also proposes to use oil shale as feedstock for power plants
th
by 2013. On July 9 2009 ONE invited companies to submit expressions of interest for a 100 MW pilot
oil shale power plant in Tarfaya, a city in the south of Morocco on the Atlantic coast near the border to
Western Sahara. In the region around Tarfaya major oil shale findings have been made.
In 1996 ONE launched the Global Rural Electrification Program (PERG) in order to provide countrywide access to electricity until 2010. The program was considered to be ambitious since rural electrification was only 18% in 1996. However, it was completed ahead of schedule in 2009 having achieved
an electrification rate of nearly 98% of which about 91% percent are provided through grid connections
and 7% using decentralized photovoltaic power generation. The massive investments into power lines,
transformer stations and photovoltaic kits for individual households amounted to more than DH 16 billion (US$2008 2.1 billion). The funding was split between the local communities, beneficiary households
and ONE according to a specifically developed funding scheme. In 2008 about 36,000 rural villages
had benefited from PERG according to ONE, which corresponds to an electrification of over 2 million
households.
5. Renewable Energy
Morocco has significant potential for solar power generation and wind farms. In particular the Atlantic
coastal regions of the North, Northeast and South have significant potential for wind-based power
generation. In the Essaouira, Tanger and Tétouan regions the annual mean wind velocity at 40 meters
above ground is between 9.5 and 11 meters per second, in the Tarfaya, Taza and Dakhla region it is a
little bit lower at 7.5 to 9.5 meters per second. The most recent wind atlas was published by the Center
for Renewable Energies (CDER) in 2007. It is based on satellite data as well as data from meteorological stations.
There are currently (fall 2009) four wind farms operational in Morocco with a total capacity of 124 MW
and an estimated annual electricity production of about 460 GWh. Tab. 3 gives an overview of the existing wind farms used for electricity generation.
Tab. 3 Wind farms in Morocco, status 2009
Location
operational
since
capacity
estimated produc-tion
in GWh/year
Tetouan (Koudia al Baida)
2000
50.4 MW
195
Tetouan (ONE test farm)
2001
3.5 MW
13
Tetouan (Lafarge plant)
2005
10 MW
38
Essaouira (Cap Sim)
2007
60 MW
210
Currently 7 CDM projects are validated, 5 projects are fully approved. About 50 projects are in different stage of the CDM procedure.
Projects under construction or planning phase
Four major wind farm projects with a total capacity of 800 MW are currently under way, for details see
Tab. 4. The farms are part of the ONE wind power project “1,000 MW”: the project facilitates the installation of additional wind farms in fourteen locations with a capacity of 1,000 MW by 2012. The Moroccan government has also launched the initiative “EnergiPro” which encourages companies to cover
their own electricity demand using renewable energy sources; EnergiPro is discussed in more detail in
the section “Comparison of Moroccan practice with international practice in energy efficiency”.
The most relevant renewable energy type is currently hydroelectric power. The total installed capacity
amounts to 1,729 MW and about 6% of the total electricity consumption (2007). There will be additional hydroelectric capacity of about 480 MW added by 2012, see Tab. 4 for details.
Tab. 4 Renewable energy projects in Morocco, status 2009
Location
type
operational (estimate)
capacity
Tanger/Tetouan
wind
end of 2009
140 MW
Touahar Taza
wind
2010
100 MW
Tarfaya
wind
2010
300 MW
Laâyoune
wind
2011
240 MW
Foum El oued (Laâyoune)
wind
2011
200 MW
Tetouan (Lafarge plant)
wind
2010
22 MW
Tanafnit-El Borj
hydro
end of 2009
40 MW
hydro
(pumped-storage)
2012
412 MW
hydro
2012
34 MW
thermo-solar
2010
20 MW (CSP)
CSP
2010
50 MW
Abdelmoumen (Agadir)
Tillouguit
Ain Beni Mathar
Ouarzazate
Similar to its neighboring countries Morocco has an abundance of solar energy: the annual daily averEconomical, Technological and Environmental Impact Assessment of National
2
age solar irradiance is 4.9-5.9 kWh/m . The country established an extensive photovoltaic program for
households in rural areas as part of the PERG initiative. Currently more than 250,000 rural households
are equipped with solar home systems, in total 70,000 SHS were installed; the total capacity amounts
to 3 MW.
Morocco aims at providing 2,000 MW capacity through concentrated solar power (CSP) plants by
2020 on IPP basis. The Ain Beni Mathar project and the first stage of the Ouarzazate project are already on the way; the Ouarzazate CSP plant is intended to have a capacity of 500 MW by 2015. In
2
2008 about 200,000 m of solar heat panels were installed. According to Plan Nationale des Actions
2
Prioritaires the area used for solar applications is set to increase to 440,000 m by 2012 and to about
2
1.7 million m by 2020. This shall be done within the PROMASOL program. In the same time frame
capacities for biomass-based electricity generation of 188 MW (2012) and 950 MW (2020) are
planned to be installed.
In 2012 the share of renewable energies is projected to contribute 20% of the total energy consumption and 18% of the total electricity consumption. According to the scenario communicated by the Ministry of Energy and Mines the share of renewable energies of the total electricity consumption could be
as high as 42% by 2020; this scenario, however, also indicates a share of 7% nuclear power generation in the year 2020. As was found out during interviews with Moroccan stakeholders, nuclear power
is discussed more as a long-term option, whereas renewable energies are a strategy to secure energy
supply in the short- to mid-term.
6. Energy Efficiency
Morocco’s primary and final energy intensity are lower than the respective EU-27 averages. However,
this is only valid for the purchase power parity, not in absolute terms. Energy intensity is also significantly lower than the regional average of the Middle East. The level of efficiency in electricity generation matches that of central European countries: in 2007 the efficiency was at almost 39% with the efficiency of thermal power plants at 37%. According to ONE the transport losses of its distribution grid
in 2008 were at 4.7% of the total injected electricity. In 2009 ONE has submitted a grant proposal to
the African development bank asking for more than US$ 120 million to finance a major work-over of
the national energy distribution network; the work-over is expected to reduce transmission losses to
3.5%.
Fig. 3 Moroccan Primary and Final Energy Intensity in Comparison to regional average of EU27 and the Middle East in purchase power parity. WEC (2008)
The long-term energy strategy of the Moroccan government aims at a 12% reduction in energy use by
2020 and 15% reduction by 2030 compared to the reference scenario based on the projected energy
demand without energy efficiency measures. Morocco’s short term energy efficiency priorities until
2012 are described in the Plan Nationale des Actions Prioritaires. They include both specific measures, such as the introduction of low energy lighting, as well as legal and structural reforms. A comprehensive analysis of the PNAP is given in the section “Comparison of Moroccan practice with international practice in energy efficiency”.
There are first initiatives to introduce standards and labels. Standards for solar water heaters have
been defined based on European norms. A program introducing labels for fridges is currently under
way; it will cover the areas of transportation (cooling in trucks), households and industry. The introduction of the label will be under the responsibility of ADEREE, the agency that will shortly be created as
the successor of CDER. The newly formed agency will be responsible both for renewable energies
and energy efficiency. The law that will establish ADEREE is currently being delayed in the legislative
process. It is expected to also contain provisions for energy standards for buildings and compulsory
audits for the industry. Another important law opening the market for IPPs up to 50 MW generation
capacity is also under way.
References:
CDER (2008), “L’Energie Eolienne au Maroc”, Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables. Presentation given by Fathalla Affani at the “Session de formation des acteurs de
th
rd
l’électrification rurale des pays africains francophones“, November 24 2008 - December 3 2008.
CIA
(2009),
“The
World
Fact
Book”,
Central
Intelligence
Agency,
2009,
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mo.html, last access on November
th
19 2009.
EIA
(2009),
Morocco
Energy
Profile,
Energy
Information
Administration,
2009,
th
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=MO, last access November 20 2009.
GWEC (2007), “Global Wind 2007 Report”, Global Wind and Energy Council, 2007. Available online:
th
www.gwec.net/index.php?id=90, accessed: November 20 2009.
IEA (2009), “CO2 emissions from fuel combustion – Highlights”, International Energy Agency, Oct.
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2009. Available online: http://www.iea.org/publications/index.asp, accessed: November 16 2009.
IMF (2009), “World Economic and Financial Surveys – World Economic Outlook Database,
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www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/ index.aspx, last access on November 17 2009.
MEM (2008a), “Secteur de l’Energie et des Mines, Principales réalisations (1999–2008) - Défis et
Perspectives“,
National
Minstry
of
Energy
and
Mines.
Available
online:
th
www.mem.gov.ma/Documentation/documentation.htm, accessed: November 16 2009.
MEM (2008b), “Développement des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacité énergétique au Maroc”,
National Ministry of Energy and Mines. Presentation given by Zohra Ettaik on 02/20/2008.
MEM (2009), “Does Morocco Provide a New Model for Bridging Old and New Energy Systems?“, National Ministry of Energy and Mines. Keynote speech delivered by Dr. Amina Benkhadra, Minster of
th
Energy and Mines, London, November 9 2009.
MFP (2004), “Perspectives de l’utilisation du gaz naturel au Maroc”, Ministère des Finances et de la
th
Privatisation. Available online: www.finances.gov.ma, section “Etudes”, accessed: November 17
2009.
MPE (2009), “Farm-Out Brochure”, Maghreb Petroleum Exploration S.A, June 2009. Available online:
th
www.mpe.ma/FB.pdf, accessed: November 19 2009.
ONE, “Quand l’énergie vient du vent”, Office National de l’Electricité. Available online:
th
www.one.org.ma/FR/pdf/Parcs_eoliens.pdf, accessed: November 20 2009.
ONE (2007), “ONE Activity Report 2007”, Office National de l’Electricité. Available online:
th
www.one.org.ma, accessed: November 12 2009.
ONE (2008a), “Dakhla 1 to 3 MW Solar IPP – Invitation for the Expression of Interest and Prequalification of Companies and Consortia (N° SP 40 292)”, Office National de l’Electricité, 2008.
ONE (2008b), “Projet de la centrale thermique 100 MW fonctionnant aux schistes bitumineux de Tarfaya – avis d’invitation a expression d’intérêt en vue de la préqualification de entreprises (N° SP 40
298)”, Office National de l’Electricité, 2008.
ONHYM (2008a), “ONHYM Activity Report 2008”, National Office of Hydrocarbon and Mining. Availth
able online: www.onhym.com, accessed: November 16 2009.
ONHYM (2008b), “Dakhla 1 to 3 MW Solar IPP – Invitation for the Expression of Interest and Prequalification of Companies and Consortia (N° SP 40292)“, Office National de l’Electricité, 2008.
RTE (2006), “RTE, at the heart of the Euro-Mediterranean electricity market”, Gestionnaire du Réseau
de
Transport
d’Electricité,
France.
Available
online:
www.rteth
france.com/htm/an/journalistes/dossiers.jsp?annee=2006, accessed: November 18 2009.
Solaterm (2007), “Framework Conditions for Solar Thermal Energy Use in the Southern Mediterranean Countries“, Solaterm Project Report, 2007. Available online: www.solaterm.eu/en/documents,
th
accessed: November 9 2009.
WEC (2008), “Energy Efficiency Policies around the World: Review and Evaluation”, World Energy
Council,
2008.
Available
online:
www.worldenergy.org/publications/energy_efficiency_policies_around_the_world_review_and_evaluat
rd
ion/, accessed: November 23 2009.

ibis moussafir agadir

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