Hotel InduSTRy Overview

Hotel InduSTRy Overview
Visit Santa Barbara
2016 Travel Outlook
Valerie Woods
Director of Business Development, Hotels
[email protected]
1. Visit www.HotelNewsNow.com
2. Create Free Login
3. Click on “Data Presentations””
STR provides monthly,
weekly and daily reports
to more than
52,000
worldwide hotels,
which represents
7 million
rooms.
Hotel Performance Data Terms
• Percent Change
• By Geography and Comp Set
Things to think about today
• Long term look at overall industry
performance
• Comparison of select coastal sub-markets
• Santa Barbara County performance
• Pipeline: How will current projects affect
supply?
• Forecast: 2015 & 2016
October 2015
 RevPAR +6.5%
 Occupancy +1.6%
 All YTD KPIs Are Still At All-time Highs
YTD October 2015: Healthy Room Rate
Growth
% Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
Room Supply
Room Demand
Occupancy
ADR.
RevPAR
Room Revenue
October 2015 YTD, Total US Results
67.4%
$121
$81
1.1%
3.0%
1.9%
4.7%
6.7%
7.8%
12 Months Ending October 2015: Easing into
Sub-7% Growth
% Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
Room Supply*
Room Demand*
Occupancy*
ADR.*
RevPAR*
Room Revenue*
65.5%
$120
$78
October 2015 12 MMA, Total US Results, * Record Absolute Values
1.0%
3.2%
2.1%
4.6%
6.9%
8.0%
US Supply/Demand – Great Fundamentals
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA Jan 1990 – Oct 2015
ADR Growth Healthy. OCC Growth Will Now
Start To Slow
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA Jan 1990 – Oct 2015
Occupancies Close to Peak
Total U.S., Occupancy and ADR, 12 MMA Jan 1997 – Oct 2015
RevPAR Growth: Smooth Sailing For The
Next 2 Years
80 Months
31 Mo
56 Months
67Mo.
Labor Day
Hiccup
Aug+1.8%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, Jan 1990 – Oct 2015
2015 STR Chain Scales
*Full list available at www.str.com/resources/documents
• Luxury – Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott
• Upper Upscale – Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, Kimpton Hotels
• Upscale – Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill
Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier
• Upper Midscale – Fairfield Inn/Suites, Holiday Inn, Clarion,
Hampton Inn/Suites, Best Western PLUS
• Midscale – Best Western, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn/Suites,
Ramada
• Economy – Extended Stay America, Red Roof, Days Inn, Microtel
Scales: Strong Demand Growth. Upscale
Supply Increases
4.8
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
3.9
3.3
2.3
2.1
1.3
1.9
1.3
1.2
0.6
0.2
-0.1
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, Oct 2015 YTD
Upper
Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Scales: Absolute OCC Very Healthy On The
Upper End
76.2 76.8
2014
75.4
76.1
2015
75.6 76.3
69.7
68.4
60.1
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
*OCC %, by Scale, Oct YTD 2015 & 2014
61.5
Upper Midscale Midscale
59.0
60.0
Economy
Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven
ADR % Change
7.0
Occupancy % Change
RevPAR % Change
5.4
6.5
6.1
5.2
4.5
4.6
7.0
4.3
4.5
5.2
5.2
1.9
0.7
0.9
0.8
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
2.4
Upper Midscale Midscale
*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, Oct 2015 YTD
1.7
Economy
Select Coastal Markets: Occupancies Near
Peak; Santa Barbara Leads in YTD Growth
San Diego / La Jolla
+3.4%
Newport Beach /
Dana Point
+2.9%
Santa Barbara County
+4.4%
San Luis Obispo
County
+2.3%
73.3%
Carlsbad / Oceanside
+1.1%
73.2%
Monterey County
+4.3%
73.2%
Select Coastal tracts, Occ & Occ % Change, YTD Oct 2015
81.0%
78.5%
76.6%
Select Coastal Sub-Markets:
All Achieved Growth in ADR
Newport Beach /
Dana Point
+4.9%
Monterey County
+4.8%
$191.99
San Diego / La Jolla
+6.5%
$190.92
Santa Barbara
County
+4.5%
Carlsbad / Oceanside
+5.0%
San Luis Obispo
County
+6.3%
Select Coastal tracts, ADR ($) & ADR % Change, YTD Oct 2015
$209.03
$183.34
$148.84
$142.33
Select Coastal Sub-Markets:
La Jolla leads in RevPAR growth
YTD 2014
$155
YTD 2015
$129
$96
$104
+7.9%
San Luis
Obispo
County
$103
$141
$140
$140
$152
$164
$129
$109
+6.3%
+9.1%
+9.3%
+10.1%
+8.7%
Carlsbad / Santa Barbara Monterey San Diego / La Newport
Oceanside
County
County
Jolla
Beach / Dana
Point
Select Coastal tracts, RevPAR $ and RevPAR % Change YTD Oct 2014 & 2015
County Performance
Santa Barbara County:
At-A-Glance
128 Properties
9,114 Rooms
Santa Barbara County Key Statistics; Oct 2015
12 Months Ending October 2015:
Record-breaking ADR, RevPAR & Revenues
% Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
Room Supply
Room Demand
Occupancy
ADR*
RevPAR*
Room Revenue*
74.1%
$179
$132.95
-0.7%
3.6%
4.3%
4.4%
9.0%
8.2%
October 2015 12 MMA, Santa Barbara County Results, * Record Absolute Values
Santa Barbara County:
Positive Supply/Demand Relationship
Supply % Change
9%
Demand % Change
5%
3.6%
1%
-0.7%
-3%
-7%
-11%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Santa Barbara County, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA Jan 2007 – October 2015
2015
Santa Barbara County: ADR barely
outpacing occupancy over last 12 months
14
Occ % Chg
ADR % Chg
10
4.4
6
4.3
2
-2
-6
-11.5%
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Santa Barbara County, Occ & ADR % Change, 12 MMA Jan 2007 – Oct 2015
2014
2015
Occupancy: Setting Records All Year (almost)
90
2008
Oct 2014:
+11.8%
2009
80
2013
2014
70
2015
60
50
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Santa Barbara County: Occupancy, By Month, 2008 , 2009, 2013, 2014 & 2015
Oct
Nov
Dec
ADR Increasing Since 2012
225
2008
2009
200
2012
2013
175
2014
2015
150
125
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Santa Barbara County: ADR, By Month, 2008-2015
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Day of Week Patterns: Occupancy
Santa Barbara County: Occupancy 52 week moving average by DOW, 2005-Oct 2015
Day of Week Patterns: ADR
Santa Barbara County: ADR 52 week moving average by DOW, 2005-Oct 2015
Santa Barbara County Comparison
Occupancy YTD: 2013-2015
2013
2014
2015
82.4
78.7
79.9
79.1
77.6 77.2
74.3
73.8
70.7
68.0
64.0
61.8
Santa Barbara
Goleta
Solvang/Buelton+
Santa Barbara Occupancy comparison, Oct YTD, 2013-2015
Santa Maria /
Lompoc
Goleta with greatest ADR growth +8.4%
2013
$251
$239
$224
2014
2015
$176
$162
$151
$143
$151
$157
$98
$92
$87
Santa Barbara
Goleta
Santa Barbara ADR comparison, Oct YTD, 2013-2015
Solvang/Buelton+
Santa Maria /
Lompoc
All areas with strong RevPAR gains
$188
$201
YTD 2014
YTD 2015
$145
$124
$125
$112
$59
$67
+6.8%
+15.7%
+10.8%
+12.8%
Santa Barbara
Goleta
Solvang/Buelton+
Santa Maria /
Lompoc
Santa Barbara comparison, RevPAR $ and RevPAR % Change YTD Oct 2014 & 2015
Hotel Pipeline
Under
Contract
Under Contract
STR Pipeline Phases
In Construction – Vertical construction on the physical
building has begun. (This does not include construction
on any sub-grade structures.)
Final Planning – construction will begin within the next
12 months.
Planning – construction will begin in more than 13
months.
Unconfirmed - Potential projects that remain
unconfirmed at this time.
US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact
2016 / 2017
Phase
2015
2014
% Change
In Construction
138
113
22%
Final Planning
175
119
48%
Planning
141
171
-18%
Under Contract
454
403
13%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, October 2015 and 2014
Limited Service Construction Has Been
Strong For 2 Years
48.8
44.9
67%
18.0
12.6
7.4
Luxury
5.2
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Upper
Midscale
Midscale
1.7
Economy
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, October 2015
Unaffiliated
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 21 With 2%+ Of Supply
Market
Oahu Island, HI
St Louis, MO-IL
Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA
Atlanta, GA
New Orleans, LA
Orlando, FL
Detroit, MI
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL
Las Vegas, NV
San Diego, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Chicago, IL
Washington, DC-MD-VA
Seattle, WA
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA
Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA
Boston, MA
Nashville, TN
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Miami/Hialeah, FL
Houston, TX
New York, NY
Rooms U/C
% Of Existing
0
332
404
564
1,461
792
2,715
953
1,010
3,905
1,513
1,585
2,930
3,949
1,601
1,531
1,962
2,417
4,339
2,339
1,844
4,166
2,748
3,438
6,245
13,539
0.0%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
1.5%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
4.8%
5.2%
6.4%
6.7%
7.9%
11.6%
*US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, October 2015
Targeting Business Travelers with Listings and…
https://www.airbnb.com/business-travel-ready
… a de facto Frequent Stay Program
Santa Barbara County Pipeline: +11% of
current supply
Phase
Projects
Rooms
In Construction
2
261
Final Planning
3
322
Planning
3
414
Unconfirmed
0
0
Total
8
977
STR Construction Pipeline; October 2015
Forecast: Where Are We
Headed?
US Forecast Summary
2015
Supply
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
Demand
2.8%
3.4%
2.9%
Occupancy
1.7%
2.3%
1.8%
ADR
4.8%
5.0%
4.7%
RevPAR
6.5%
7.3%
6.5%
Supply
1.5%
1.8%
1.9%
Demand
2.3%
2.2%
1.9%
Occupancy
0.8%
0.4%
0%
ADR
4.8%
5.9%
5.7%
RevPAR
5.7%
6.3%
5.7%
Last Updated
Nov 15
Aug 15
Nov 15
2016
City of Santa Barbara 2015 & 2016 Outlook
2015 Outlook (as of Oct 2015)
2016 Outlook
7.1%
6.4%
6.2%
$263
$192
ADR
RevPAR
5.5%
1.5%
77.4%
77.5%
$248
$192
-0.1%
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Occupancy
City of Santa Barbara: Annual Percentage Change from Prior Year & Estimated KPIs as of October 2015
Goleta 2015 & 2016 Outlook
2015 Outlook (as of Oct 2015)
2016 Outlook
15.6%
8.5%
6.5%
80.0%
80.3%
$173
$139
-0.4%
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Occupancy
6.7%
6.3%
$185
$148
ADR
RevPAR
Goleta: Annual Percentage Change from Prior Year & Estimated KPIs as of October 2015
Connect with me:
Valerie Woods
[email protected]
615-824-8664 x3328
Valerie_STR