A380 Product Update

Transcription

A380 Product Update

A380 Product Update
ASFG meeting
g – Paris,, 5th October 2012
Richard Carcaillet
Director Product Marketing, A380
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
Current & future values
VLA remarketing
A380 market fundamentals
A380 demand
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
VLA remarketing
A380 demand
Five years in service!
“Over the p
past five y
years,, our A380 fleet has g
grown to become the mainstay
y on our high-traffic,
g
,
long-haul routes linking key hubs around the world. The aircraft continues to be a customer
favourite, featuring our latest award-winning cabin products.”
Mr Mak Swee Wah
Executive Vice-President Commercial,
Source: SIA website – 5th anniversary special pages
Last year: 4 years of success – 4 years of full flights
“The Singapore Airlines A380 has proven exceptionally
popular with customers, with strong loads on all routes it
serves. System-wide, more than 5 million customers
have flown on Singapore Airlines' A380s [...] on more
than 13,000 flights”.
SIA News Release
1st July 2011
=
82%
Average Load Factor (*)
76.5%
77.9%
IATA Industry average l.f.**
l f **
SIA average l.f.**
l f **
(*) worth 4.6m$ additional revenue per A380 in 2010
** - Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011
Page 5
Replacing the legendary, but now venerable, 747
SIA press release,
17th February 2012
Flightglobal, February 2012
The A380 has been voted her worthy successor and new flagship.
The A380 is the new “Queen of the Skies” for SIA
The A380 in 2011-2012: new orders, new customers
33 firm orders in 2011-2012 to date. Four new customers. Two reorders.
2012-10 CSMN A380 Commercial Update
October 2012
September 27th, the first Thai Airways A380
Thai has become the 9th A380 operator
Page 8
October 2012
A380 – the airline flagship of choice
19 A380
12 A380
10 A380
25 A380
5 A380
8 A380
4 A380
2 A380
1 A380
“The A380 continues to be popular in all destinations that it serves and has
become the airline’s flagship in terms of passenger comfort, innovation,
operating and environmental efficiency and revenue generation.”
Emirates First Half financial report
Nov 1,
1 2010
In-service fleet as of September 28th 2012
Page 9
Still doubts on who’s the New Queen of the Skies?
Flightglobal, May 10th 2012
64% of the voters confirmed it: the A380 rules the sky
(and the “new”
new 747 is an irrelevance)
Page 10
October 2012
The A380 orderbook – a continuing growth story
2 A380
12 A380
6 A380
12 A380
5 A380
90 A380
10 A380
10 A380
5 A380
10 A380
17 A380
6 A380
10 A380
20 A380
19 A380
6 A380
6 A380
4 A380
Private
Customer
6 A380
1 A380
Data as at end July 2012
257
firm orders from
20 Customers
All 3 alliances
represented
A380 gross orders since launch
Gross Orders
120
100
Reorder
Reorder
80
Reorder
85
Reorder
Reorder
60
Reorder
40
Reorder
32
20
20
34
10
0
A380
Launch
2001
2002
17
33
10
2003
2004
2005
2006
29
2007
9
4
2008
2009
2010
2011
A consistent order intake from leading airlines (26 per year)
...and
and 6 uninterrupted years of reorders.
reorders
The A380 is the market’s VLA of choice
300
August 2012
Cumulative net orders for passenger aircraft only
19 airlines
256 orders
19 airlines
250
200
150
100
A380
50
27 orders
3 airlines
747-8
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Only three airlines have ordered the 747-8
2011
2012
October 2012
The A380 is the new flagship
International RPKs, IATA carriers 2011 (000s)
225000
A380 customers
200000
175000
150000
125000
100000
75000
50000
25000
0
12 of the top 20 international carriers ordered 218 out of 257 A380s
* - Includes wholly owned subsidiaries Austrian, bmi, Swiss
Page 14
October 2012
86 A380s delivered to date
9 operators, a fleet that keeps growing
In-service fleet as of October 2nd 2012
Page 15
A380 high utilisation & high reliability
Revenue flight hours
More than 600,000 flight hours
in more than 72,000 revenue flights
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Oct-07
O t 07 Apr-08
A 08 Oct-08
O t 08 Apr-09
A 09 Oct-09
O t 09 Apr-10
A 10 Oct-10
O t 10 Apr-11
A 11 Oct-11
O t 11 Apr-12
A 12
More than 26 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience
As of 1st August 2012
October 2012
The A380 network as of October 2012
Montreal
Toronto
London
Manchester
Paris
New York
Washington DC
Atlanta
Amsterdam
Moscow
Frankfurt
Munich
Zurich
Rome
Beijing
Seoul
San Francisco
T k
Tokyo
Guangzhou
Houston
Jeddah
Dubai
Los Angeles
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Sydney
Johannesburg
Singapore Airlines
Emirates
Qantas
Air France
Lufthansa
Additional airline-announced routes for 2012-13 shown dotted
Page 17
Korean Air
China Southern
Malaysia Airlines
Thai Airways
Melbourne
Auckland
More and more A380s to North America
9 new routes
in 2012
9 cities served
2 new in 2012
: New 2012 services
: Destinations before 2012
Toronto
SIN-JFK
Montreal
ICN JFK
ICN-JFK
SIN-SFO
New York
San Francisco
Atlanta
Los Angeles
Houston
CDG-LAX
DXB-JFK
Washington DC
ICN-ATL
Miami
ICN-LAX
CAN-LAX
Over 200 A380 services every week !
2012 H2 Schedules
FRA-IAH
(x2 daily)
October 2012
When one A380 flight is not enough
Dubai-London:
up to 5 daily A380
fli ht for
flights
f Emirates
E i t
London
Singapore-London:
Beijing-Guangzhou:
3 daily
y A380 flights
g
for SIA
2 daily A380 flights for Qantas
2 daily A380 flights for
China Southern
Beijing
Paris
Singapore-Tokyo:
New York
T k
Tokyo
up to 2 daily A380
flights for SIA
Guangzhou
Dubai-New York:
up to 2 daily A380
flights for Emirates
Hong Kong
Dubai
Jeddah
Bangkok
Dubai-Jeddah:
Singapore-Hong Kong:
up to 2 daily A380 flights for SIA
Singapore
Dubai-Paris:
2 daily A380 flights for Emirates
Singapore-Sydney:
up to 2 daily A380
fli ht for
f Emirates
E i t
flights
D
b iB
k k
Dubai-Bangkok:
2 daily A380 flights for SIA
Sydney
2 daily A380 flights for Emirates
Singapore Airlines
E i t
Emirates
Qantas
Melbourne
China Southern
Singapore-Melbourne:
2 daily A380 flights for SIA
Multiple daily frequencies: the A380 helps containing the number of additional flights
Figures for 2012-2013 planned schedules
Page 19
A380s at all of the top 10 international airports…
International Passengers 2010 (mill.)
75
A380 Service in 2012
50
25
0
… and at 16 of the top 20. The future has, indeed, arrived.
Source: ACI
A380s link the worlds Aviation Mega-cities
Top 10 A380 airports ranked by weekly departures
140
Air France
China Southern
120
Emirates
100
Korean Air
80
Lufthansa
Malaysia Airlines
60
Qantas
Singapore Airlines
40
20
0
Dubai
Singapore Franfurt
London
(LHR)
Paris
(CDG)
Sydney
Hong
Kong
Seoul
(ICH)
New York
(JFK)
Tokyo
(NRT)
Over 100 flights per day carrying more than 1m passengers per month
A380 weekly departures: Week 33 August 2012 - Source: OAG
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
VLA remarketing
A380 demand
A380 – the best cabin in the sky
The widest ever
Main Deck cabin
Widebody comfort
on Upper Deck
More stowage
volume
The
quietest,
smoothest
cabin
Low velocity
cabin air
High
relative
humidityy
Advanced
temperature control
Comfortable
cabin altitude
The A380 is the only aircraft flying today that unites all of these essential
cabin elements for the ultimate passenger experience
A380 innovative technology improves efficiency
New flight controls architecture: State-of-the-art aerodynamics
dual Hydraulic / Electric
Drag
Weight
Variable Frequency
electrical power generation
Weight
Composite materials
((25% byy weight)
g )
Weight
New generation high
bypass engines
Fuel burn
Laser beam welding
Automated fuel transfer
Weight
Drag
Weight
Lower fuel burn, higher reliability, lower maintenance costs
A380 – More passengers, more range
1,300nm more range than the 747-400
900nm (or even 1
1,100)
100) more range than the 747-8
747 8
Seats
A380-800
500
747-8*
747-8
7,400nm
7,600nm
8,500nm
400
777 300ER
777-300ER
747-400
8,000nm
7,200nm
300
7000
7500
8000
8500
The A380 delivers the range and capacity the market requires
Airbus standard marketing rules
* - estimated performance shortfall at EIS
Range
(nm)
A380 performance: superior by design
• Compared with the 747, the A380:
•
•
•
•
needs shorter runways to take off (17%) and land (11%)
has 4,000ft higher initial cruise altitude
offers the same cruise Mach number
has a 20kt lower approach speed (the same as an A320)
Photo credit: Burkhard Domke
Superior aerodynamics, superior performance
A great aircraft just got even better
Payload, kg
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
MTOW 575t
525 passengers + bags
MTOW 560t
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
Range, nm
From 2013: 500nm more range or 10t more payload
JAR reserves, ISA
Nominal performance
Meeting the environmental challenge
How to address the environmental challenges of air traffic growth ?
Emissions
State of the art engines for lower emissions and
better local air quality
The lowest fuel burn of any large aircraft, reducing
CO2 emissions significantly
Noise
A friendly neighbour: half the noise of a 747-400
747 400
with 40% more passengers
Even quieter than smaller aircraft
Congestion
More passenger per flight = growth with no extra flights
The easiest solution for growth at congested airports
around the world
The A380 is part of the solution
A380 – the lowest fuel burn per seat
25%
Relative fuel burn per seat, 6000nm sector,
Airbus standard 3
3-class
class layouts
+21%
20%
+15%*
15%
+12%
10%
+12%
5%
Datum
0%
A380
525 seats
747-400
747 400
370 seats
747-8
747 8
405 seats
777-300ER
777
300ER
305 seats
Simply the most fuel efficient widebody
* - estimated fuel burn shortfall at EIS
A380 – delivering outstanding efficiency
“In terms of technical pperformance,, specifically
p
y fuel burn,, the
aircraft is performing better than Airbus promised. In
seat/mile terms we achieve overall a 20% better fuel burn
than our 747-400s.”
Chew Choon Seng, CEO Singapore Airlines
ATW online, Dec 13th 2007
“The A380 has met or exceeded all the original
performance, noise and fuel burn guarantees made by Airbus
at the time the aircraft purchase decision was made.
made ”
Lyell Strambi,
Group Executive - Qantas Airlines, Operations
Airline Fleet Management , July 2009
Delivering a step change – delivering on all its commitments.
Beware the comparisons by Boeing
Boeing stand at ILA Berlin Air Show, 10-15 Sep 2012
This comparison
p
is only
yp
possible with:
1)
Lower comfort standards
“Compared to the 747-400, the A380
only burns 5% less fuel per seat whilst
the 747-8 burns 16% less fuel per seat”
2) +9t to A380 empty weight (3% of the OWE)
3) +6% Fuel burn mark-up on A380
A380 fuel burn per seat is in fact acknowledged as 18% lower than 747-400
(and 11% lower than 747-8)
Noise footprint from FRA: departure
85 dbA contour at Frankfurt – 5,000 nm mission
A380-800
A380Full NADP
A380--800
A380
Max Climb
747-400
Noise footprint sufrace comparison (km2)
- 50%
- 60%
6.97
3.4
747-400
MAX CLB
2.9
Full NADP
A380-800
Less than half the noise footprint on
departure
departure…
with 40% more passengers
A380 – the quietest widebody aircraft
Cumulative margin
to ICAO Chapter 3
(EPNdB)
0
5
10
747-400
747
400 (GE)
ICAO Ch
Chapter
t 4
Quieter
777-300ER
15
20
747-8*
787-8* A350-800*
25
A380-800 ((RR))
A380-800 (EA)
30
100
200
300
Bigger
400
500
Capacity (3-class)
The A380 is quieter than much smaller aircraft
Source: ICAO noise databank
* Airbus estimate for non-quoted aircraft
A380 – increasing capacity and saving slots
London-Singapore capacity & frequencies, 2006-2012
18000
42
Weekly Seats Offered
Weekly Flights
17000
35
16000
28
15000
1 000
21
EIS
14000
14
13000
7
12000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Helping airlines grow in a slot-limited environment
Source: OAG (reference: Summer season) – A380 Operators data
2012
A380 – the lowest cost per seat
Relative cash operating cost per seat
6000nm sector
sector, Airbus standard 3-class
3 class evaluation layouts
25%
+23%
+20%
+19%*
20%
15%
+15%
10%
5%
Datum
0%
A380
747-400
747-8I
777-300ER
525 seats
370 seats
405 seats
305 seats
Simply the lowest cost per seat
* - estimated performance shortfall at EIS
Boeing agree: the 747-8 has no economic benefit
“With these [yet to be implemented]
improvements the 747
improvements,
747-8
8's
s seat/mile costs are on
the same horizon line as the 777-300ER"
Elizabeth Lund
Lund, VP Boeing 747 programme
Flight Global, June 4th 2012
The 747-8 has 30% more capacity but worse economics
so cannot compete with the 777
777-300ER
300ER
The venerable 747 – with 1960s technology
Launch customer 747-8 Intercontinental
Its time: 1970-1999
747-8 Type Certificate Data Sheet No.A20WE
Rev. 48,
75 pages,
14 types,
initial document
dated 30 Dec.1969
The game changer
“II can
can’tt understand why other airlines have been so slow to pick up on the
A380 […] The economics are fantastic. It has given us a huge advantage
because the seat-mile costs are much lower than on any other aircraft”.
Maurice Flanagan – EVC Emirates Group, June 22nd 2010
“Load factor on the A380 grew 3% and yield is 3% higher compared
to a 747 flying
y g on a different day.
y The four weekly
y A380 service to
HKG for example seeing traffic moving (to the A380)”.
Alan Joyce, Qantas CEO, 2nd April 2012
“The A380 has been doing very well for us. It has been very profitable”
Mr Cho Won Tae
Tae, Korean Air SVP Passenger Business Division
Division, October 2011
A380 - lower costs, higher revenues: more profits
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
VLA remarketing
A380 demand
The A380 Effect is still strong for existing operators...
“Load factor on the A380 grew 3% and yield is 3% higher compared to a 747 flying
on a different
diff
t day.
d
Th four
The
f
weekly
kl A380 service
i to
t HKG for
f example
l seeing
i traffic
t ffi
moving (to the A380)”.
Alan Joyce, Qantas CEO
ATW online
2nd April 2012
“The reaction [on the A380 product] is still superb”
...and new ones!
“Our first A380 operation to London commences
July 1 and we are happy to say that First Class
is already sold out, with limited seats left in
Business and Economy Class”.
Datuk Mohd Salleh Ahmad Tabrani
Malaysia Airlines EVP Customer Experience
The Sun - 18th April 2012
“With the new A380, we can expect an extra
3 000 seats
3,000
t to
t be
b sold
ld in
i the
th coming
i July/August
J l /A
t
period. The demand for seats on the A380 has
been high. With a month to go, our figures show
that
a 80 pe
per ce
centt o
of tthee aavailable
a ab e seats have
a e
already been snapped up”.
Yuzrizal Yousuf
Malaysia Airlines area manager UK&ireland
New Straits Times - 31st May 2012
The A380 effect already starts before the beginning of operations
What is the A380 effect?
• The popularity of the A380 with passengers:
• A unique product, powerful enough to influence passengers choice and in
some cases even pay a premium
• ...combined with its unique capacity on the network:
• Increased “bandwidth” on large routes boosts connecting traffic
• Exploit the correlation between capacity and market share to capture more
local and direct traffic
• The right capacity at the right time: fully exploit hub wave patterns and local
demand peaks
A unique, enduring competitive advantage
October 2012
Incomparable popularity
“A380 flights are almost always full. In all
of my 40 years in the business, I’ve never
known an aircraft to be so p
popular.
p
People
p
are especially keen to fly in the A380”.
Tim Clark
Emirates CEO interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung – 16th December 2011
Page 43
Airlines know the pulling-power of the A380...
380
Airlines use the A380 as an attraction leverage
...and its revenue potential!
+56%
A380: premium prices from premium slots
Booking simulation performed on September 24th 2012
All operators have an A380 “web special”
All A380 customers have dedicated A380 branding and webpages
Page 46
October 2012
October 2012
Guess who’s the star
The A380 is the icon of world
world-class
class carriers
“Emirates and Qantas have [...] two of the largest A380 fleets in the world, offering
the highest levels of luxury and comfort
comfort”
www.qantasandemirates.com
t
d i t
Page 47
October 2012
The A380 effect – passengers talk about it!
Passengers comments overall feedback:
www lovea380 com
www.lovea380.com
4% 4%
Positive
Neutral
Negative
92%
The “WOW” factor remains undiminished
Source: Publicis. Sample: 3,000 comments
Page 48
Airlines know the pulling-power of the A380
380
A380 Effect Case Study
Frankfurt-Tokyo
Frankfurt
Tokyo NRT
Weekly seats offered (one way)
= Compared periods
5000
3x weekly
4500
daily
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
The A380 introduced 43% more seats for Lufthansa
Source: OAG
A380 Effect on traffic and load factor
Frankfurt-Tokyo
vv
Frankfurt
Tokyo NRT and vv.
Source: Sabre
Total Passenger Volume and Seats Offered
Traffic
300000
+52%
Capacity
traffic
increase
250000
-17
17%
200000
Load
Factor
150000
Traffic
decrease
7%
-7
Traffic
decrease
79%
74%
90%
100000
94%
81%
2010-06 to 2011-02
2009-06 to 2010-02
71%
50000
0
2009-06 to 2010-02
2010-06 to 2011-02
LH
2009-06 to 2010-02
NH
2010-06 to 2011-02
JL
The A380 Effect: traffic increasing more than capacity
A380 Effect on market share
Frankfurt-Tokyo
Frankfurt
Tokyo NRT and vv.
vv
Source: Sabre
Seats Offered %
Passenger Volume %
2009 06 to 2010 02
2009‐06 to 2010‐02
2009‐06 to 2010‐02
2009‐06 to 2010‐02
29%
40%
29%
36%
35%
31%
2010‐06 to 2011‐02
2010‐06 to 2011‐02
24%
28%
50%
50%
22%
26%
Attracting passengers, gaining the market. This is the A380.
A380 size, A380 effect: it’s all about revenue
7¢/RPK & 80% l/f
A380 size
$115 m
R
Revenue/year/aircraft
/
/ i
f
A380 effect:
revenue +5%
0.35 ¢/RPK
A380 effect
$8.3 m
net profit/year/aircraft
A380 delivers, on all commitments
• The most comfortable, quietest, most efficient and innovative cabin
• The lowest fuel burn,
burn cost per seat and noise of any large aircraft
• The latest technology, certificated to the very latest standards
• Superior range and performance, and family development potential
• And, remarkably…
… the A380 effect:
hugely popular with
passengers for higher load
passengers,
factors and average yields,
and so higher profits.
It takes an A380 to compete
p with an A380.
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
VLA remarketing
A380 demand
CSMI - Ref. PR1245795 - Issue 1
August 2012
A380 current & future values
• A380 appraised values steadily increasing but still lagging delivery pricing
• Appraisers more comfortable extrapolating from known aircraft
A380 game changing aircraft: first valuations (2007-2008) extremely conservative
• Over
O
pastt 5 years, new aircraft
i
ft values
l
increased
i
d +12%
12% on average, vs. +5%
5%
•
increase for 777-300ER over same period.
Over time new aircraft values have risen steadily to more closely reflect the
aircraft’s performance, profitability and popularity.
• Depreciation curves: A380 future values show comparable behaviour to
A330 and 777-300ER
Note:
N
t appraisers
i
’ published base values do not differentiate RR/EA engines
• More customers with RR engines but split is equal between engines
manufacturers when compared in terms of number of aircraft
Page 56
August 2012
A380 values steadily increasing
Increase in Base Values (New Aircraft) vs. 2008 situation
14%
12%
A380
777-300ER
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2008
2009
2010
Average of first half published values of :- ASG, AVITAS, AVAC, ASEND and MBA
Page 57
2011
2012
August 2012
A380 future values:
Reasonable agreement on depreciation profile
A380 Future Base Values (2012-build aircraft)
100%
80%
ASCEND
MBA
60%
AVAC
AVITAS
40%
ASG
IBA
20%
0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Generic half life values – published 1H2012 data – 2.5% inflation for future values
Page 58
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
August 2012
Latest Technology and Dominant market position:
A380 future values assured
2012-build Widebodies Base Values (100% = new value)
A330-200
A330
200
A330-300HGW
A380-800
B777-200ER
B777-200LR
B747-8I
B777-300ER
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
ASCEND*: A380 future values comparable behaviour to A330 and 777-300ER
ASCEND are known as being the MOST conservative of all appraisers, particularly on wide-bodies
st
ASCEND
Page
59 Base Values (1 half 2012), 2.5% inflation
A380 engine competition – two very good engines
Trent 900
Not selected 25 (10%)
124
(49%)
104
(41%)
Number of aircraft
March 2012
GP 7000
Not selected 3 (16%)
5
(26%)
11
(58%)
Number of customers
August 2012
VLA remarketing perspectives
• Historically,
Historically VLA fleet remains a original operator
• Majority of 747-400 pax aircraft remained at original operator
• Very limited secondary trading, starting only 14 years after 1st EIS
• VLA secondary market operators
• Small volume of remarketed aircraft, mostly small fleet (1 to 2 aircraft)
•
•
to new operators of the type
Few players with sizeable second-hand fleets (e
(e.g:
g: Transaero,
Transaero
Corsair, Atlas Air.)
Some first-hand operators using secondary market to add capacity
(
(e.g:
Q
Qantas,
KAL, CX,
C ANZ, Air India).
)
Page 61
August 2012
747-400 passenger fleet evolution
462 in-service aircraft
43 a/c Remarketed
381 a/c (82%)
k t by
kept
b original
i i l operator
t
32 a/c
with different
seat configuration
(7%)
from delivery
Remarketed
11 a/c
(2%)
3 a/c converted to Combi
5 a/c converted to VIP
30 a/c (6%)
converted to cargo
VLA fleet remains at original operator:
Very few VLA go into secondary market
Status 2007 data Ascend online – 2007 is peak year for in-service 747-400s
Page 62
with the same
seat configuration
as at delivery
August 2012
747-400 passenger operator base development
History of 747-400 deliveries vs. New Operator for the type
747 400 ((pax and
747-400
d combi)
bi) d
deliveries
li i
80
80
New operator (cumulated)*
* Also includes former operator even if operation of the type is later discontinued
60
40
60
40
1
20
3
2
20
0
0
1989
1.
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
1st wave of deliveries : operator base building up (1989-1993)
Very few later took a limited number of 747-400 from secondary market for pax use (mostly on lease): Qantas, KAL, CX, ANZ, Air India.
2nd wave of deliveries: nearly no new operator (1994-2003)
2.
Secondary market players:
3.
New wave of operators from 2003 (14 years after EIS)
Secondary trading starts with wave of new operators almost exclusively sourcing their 744 fleet from secondary trading, however:
Very limited volume: usually fleets of 1-2 aircraft per new operator
V few
Very
f players
l
with
ith sizeable
i bl flfleets:
t Transaero,
T
C
Corsair
i (Atlas
(Atl Ai
Air)) major
j players
l
No secondary aircraft trading before 14 years after EIS;
Majority of aircraft remain at their original operators
Source: Ascend online, 747-400 pax and combi fleet
Page 63
August 2012
Second-hand 747-400 operators
Through years 1989 to 2011
First-hand operators also
using 744 (pax) from
secondary market
Qantas
Cathay Pacific
Ai IIndia
Air
di
Saudia
Air New Zealand
Garuda Indonesia
El Al
Ascend data, 747-400 pax and combi historical fleet development
Page 64
Operators excusively
using 744 (pax)
secondary market
First year of operation
of the type
Royal Air Maroc
1994
Ansett Australia
1999
Air Pacific
2003
Aerolineas Argentinas
2004
Iberia
2004
Corsair
2005
Air Atlanta Icelandic
2005
Oasis Hong
g Kong
g Airlines
2006
Blue Sky
2006
Transaero Airlines
2007
TAAG Angola Airlines
2007
Pullmantur Air
2008
Alwafeer Air
2009
Mahan Air
2009
Lion Air
2009
AeroSur
2009
TAT Nigeria
2009
Atlas Air
2010
Orient Thai Airlines
2010
Iraqi Airways
2010
Biman Bangladesh Airlines
2011
MaxAir
2011
A380 product update
The A380 today:
Commercial update
Product positioning
The A380 effect
The A380 tomorrow:
VLA remarketing
A380 demand
The A380 is a natural fit for an urbanised world
Hub-cities
are big
Hub-cities
are getting
bigger
points
Hub-cities
H
b iti
are the most
Hub-cities
traffic will
cities
double
dynamic
“Hub to Hub” is “Big Point” to “Big Point”
Traffic between hub-cities keeps growing so larger aircraft are required
Air travel remains a growth market
20-year
world annual
traffic growth
World annual RPK (trillion)
14
ICAO
total traffic
Airbus
GMF 2012
12
4 7%
4.7%
2021-2031
4.4%
10
2011-2021
5.1%
8
6
Air traffic has doubled
every
y 15 y
years
4
Air traffic will double
in the next 15 years
2
0
1971
1976
1981
Source: ICAO, Airbus
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
The world needs the A380 – now!
ICAO world passenger traffic growth forecast 2012- 2014, cumulative
14.0%
9.2%
33 9%
33.9%
27.6%
24 7%
24.7%
18.8%
World average + 19%
World traffic almost 20% higher in 2014 than in 2011
Source: ICAO
If you don’t grow, somebody else will
Impact on market share of planned capacity growth
Relative RPKs (%)
300
250
200
Planned
capacity
growth
150
100
50
33%
+2.5% p.a.
25%
35%
+2.5% p.a.
40%
40%
+0% p.a.
27%
0
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
40%
Airline C
44%
Airline B
16%
2023
2025
2027
2029
From dominant to dominated: standing still is not an option
Airline A
42 Aviation Mega-cities in the world handle
more than 10
000 long haul passengers per day
10,000
day, …
2011 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers
>
90%
of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
42 cities
42
Aviation
Mega cities
Mega-cities
(2011)
Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres
Traffic as of month of September; Source: Airbus
Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
… and by 2031 it will be over 90
2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers
>
95%
of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
92 cities
92
Aviation
Mega-cities
Mega cities
(2031)
Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres
Traffic as of month of September. Source: Airbus
Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
Long-haul traffic will remain highly concentrated
on the Aviation Megacities
Long-haul traffic per route category*
RPK (billion)
Historyy
Forecast
Secondary city
<>
Secondary city
Aviation Megacity
<>
Secondary city
Aviation Megacity
<>
Aviation Megacity
*- Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Based
2010’s 39 A
Aviation
Megacities
B
d on 2010’
i ti M
iti
36 Aviation Mega-city airports are
already congested
With more passengers per take-off and landing,
the A380 can alleviate airport and congestion
2010 Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Source: IATA PaxIS, IATA World Slot Guidelines, OAG, Airbus
Concentration of VLA flights between hubs
Tokyo to Los Angeles
6 00
6:00
Tokyo
12 00
12:00
Departure Times
18 00
18:00
24 00
24:00
Los Angeles to Tokyo
Los Angeles
6:00
12:00
6 00
6:00
Departure Times
18:00
24:00
Slot and time zone constraints drive frequency concentration
The A380 is the most efficient solution for growth
Source: OAG - June 2012 Schedules
6:00
2011-06 KS A380 - The new travel standard
Junel 2011
Existing VLA order book and open 20-year demand
25
747-8I
691
Open1099
demand
( demand
O (new
Open
d
d
customers)
198
A380
Demand for 1322 new aircraft
408
Open demand
( i ti
(existing
customers)
The A380 will dominate this market
VLA: Very Large Aircraft
Backlog at end 2010
Airbus GMF 2010 data - Pax aircraft only, excluding VIP
Thank you!
© AIRBUS S.A.S.
S A S All rights reserved.
reserved Confidential and proprietary document.
document This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S.
S A S No intellectual property rights are granted by the
delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be
used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting
grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
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A380 Product Update

Transcription

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