Diapositiva 1

Transcription

Diapositiva 1

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA
Rahim Ahamad
Colombia, November 2013
EXECUTVE SUMMARY
INTERWAY GROUP
AFRICAN CONTINENT
OVERVIEW
ANGOLA
OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
MOZAMBIQUE
OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCÍPE
OVERVIEW
WHO WE ARE
Founded in 2003, the INTERWAY group is a reference in
the markets where operates.
Managed by a high profile team with vast international
experience, namely in Sub Saharan African countries,
started historically operating under the name of CODISA
ANGOLA S.A., considered one of the most dynamic and
innovative companies in Angola.
Currently the group is expanding their business operations
in countries such as Angola, Moçambique and São Tomé e
Príncipe.
www.codisa-interway.com
WHAT WE DO
WORKSPACES
OPTIMIZATION
CORPORATE
& BUSINESS
CONSULTING
LOGISTICS
SOLUTIONS
ARCHITECTURE
AND INTERIORS
TECHNOLOGY
SHOPPING
CENTER
MANAGEMENT
AND PROMOTION
HEALTH
LUXURY
RETAIL
AFRICA OVERVIEW
PEACE IS NOW THE NORM ACROSS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT
Countries in armed conflicts: 1970 = 20; 2010 = 3
African GDP growth overtook the global average since 2001 and continues to accelerate with the 6% growth
barrier being breached by many nations.
AFRICA OVERVIEW
NUMBERS – PAST AND PRESENT
$1,6 Trillion
Africa collective GDP in 2008,
Roughly equal to Brazil or Russia
$860 Billion
Africa’s combined consumer spending in 2008
360 Million
The number of new mobile phone subscribers
since 2000
60%
Africa’s share of the world total amount of uncultivated
arable land
52
The number of cities with more than 1 million people each
20
African Companies have Revenues of at least 3 billion USD each.
Source: Mckinsey
AFRICA OVERVIEW
THE NUMBERS – PAST AND PRESENT
146 per 1000
Infant mortality vs 266 p/ 1000 in1960
63%
Primary school completion vs 50% in 1999
71%
Youth literacy rates vs 64% 1985–1994
52
Life expectancy in 2007 vs 41 years in 1960
 Africa’s quality of life metrics are noticeably improving
 African governments have significantly improved macroeconomic stability and have been
implementing good measures of Governance
Source: Mckinsey
AFRICA OVERVIEW
THE NUMBERS TOMORROW
$2,6 Trillion
Africa collective GDP in 2020
$1,4 Trillion
Africa’s combined consumer spending in 2020
1,1 Billion
The number of Africans with working age in 2040
120 Million
The number of African Households with discretionary
income in 2020
50%
The portion of African living in cities in 2040
A new private sector-driven African economy is emerging. Africa’s wealth in natural resources which benefited
Africa’s growth up to 32% from 2000 to 2008, while the remaining two thirds came from other sectors such as
Telecommunications, Banking, Retailing and Construction.
Source: Mckinsey
AFRICA OVERVIEW
PROMISING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS
Share of Population by Region 2010 (%)
100% millions of people
1,219
1,032
1,351
830
27
70
60
Índia
349
21
18
79
82
55
73
30
594
40
45
Africa
China
Europe
Rural
Urban
Latina America North America
•
African consumption has grown by US$275bn since 2000 – similar to Brazil and more than
India. The consumer goods sector is already more than 50% of all industries.
•
African consumption life-cycle evolves towards (Less food) and (more goods) which is a result of
growing wealth among the African population.
SUB SAHARAN AFRICA OVERVIEW
• Sub Saharan Africa is the geographical region
south of the Sahara desert
• The Northern Africa Region is the one normally
associated with the Arab World
• The GDP of the Sub Saharan region is growing at
a pace of around 5% against the world average of
3,3% a year
Source: Mckinsey
• Sub-Saharan Africa displays the most linguistic
diversity of any region in the world. The region
contains more than 1000 languages
• Tribal culture is still very important in African culture
and very determinant in relationships between
political groups and countries
• Business relationships are built slowly and trust
between the parties is crucial
Niger-Congo A
Niger-Congo B (Bantu)
Afro-Asiatique
Nilo-Saharien
Khoi-San
Austronésien
GDP GROWTH RATE 2012
Equatorial Guinea
South Africa
Botswana
Madagascar
Uganda
Congo, Rep.
Guinea
Cameroon
São Tomé e Principe
Kenya
Namibia
Benin
Gabon
Nigeria
Angola
Tanzania
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Zambia
Mozambique
Ghana
Rwanda
Cote D'Ivore
Sierra Leone
4%
6,8 %
7,4 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Source: World Bank
GDP GROWTH RATE 2012
• Angola and Mozambique are growing at 6,8% and 7,4% respectively.
• The main Growth drivers in the African Region are
the Resources, Wholesale and retail, Agriculture and
Transport and communications sectors
Resources
Other Services
6
Utilities
2
Tourism
2
Real Estate,…
• There is also a severe shortage of power supply
across the markets. The 48 sub-Saharan countries,
which have a combined 800 million in population,
produce roughly the same as Spain, with 45 million in
population
24
Construction
Financial…
Manufacturing
Transport,…
Agriculture
Whoesale and…
5
5
6
9
10
12
13
• FBN Capital in Nigeria said that there is no capital to finance the 8 billion usd needed yearly, for the
next 10 Years, for the power sector in that country alone.
ENERGY
• 50% is rural and with no access to electricity
• Africa generates 47 GW of electricity, less
than 0.6% of global market share.
Many countries are affected by power shortages
• The region has the potential to generate 1,750 TWh of energy, of which only 7% has
been explored
.
MEDIA
• Radio is the major source of information in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Television is the second major source of
information. Because of power shortages,
the spread of television viewing has been
limited. Eight percent have television, a total
of 62 million.
.
INFRASTRUCTURE
• Less than 40% of rural Africans live
within two kilometers of an all-season
road, the lowest level of rural
accessibility in the developing world.
• It has been argued that Infrastructure investments contributed to more than half of Africa's
improved growth performance between 1990 and 2005 and increased investment is necessary
to maintain growth and tackle poverty.
• In transport and energy a majority of investment is state spending; in ICT and water supply and
sanitation, the private sector represents the majority of capital expenditure.
.
OIL AND MINERAL
• The region is a major exporter to the world of
gold, uranium, chrome, vanadium, antimony,
coltan, bauxite, iron ore, copper and
Manganese.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has been the focus of an
intense race for oil by the West, China, India,
and other emerging economies, even though
.
it holds
only 10% of proven oil reserves, less
than the Middle East.
A G R I C U LT U R E
.
• The OECD says Africa has the potential to become
an agricultural superbloc if it can unlock the wealth
of the savannahs by allowing farmers to use their
land as collateral for credit
• In some countries ownership of agriculture land is
still challenging for foreigners and there are no
proper records of land titles
LOGISTICS
• Logistics in the region is very challenging, except the good
infrastructures in South Africa, due to lack of infrastructure
in the transport area
• Costs of transports is estimated in being 50% of the final
retail price in some landlocked countries or in the interior of
large countries.
H E A LT H
• The life expectancy at birth is about 55 years and it has
been growing in the last years
• However access to quality health care services and
medicines is still very challenging
ANGOLA OVERVIEW
Population: 20 million (2012 estimates)
Language : Portuguese
Nominal GDP: 118 Billion USD
GDP COMPOSITION 2011
0,2%
7,2%
0,8%
9,9%
21,2%
0,1%
7,7%
47,1%
5,8%
Agriculture
Fishing and related
Diamonds and others
Oil
Industry
Construction
Energy
Commerce
Other
ANGOLA OVERVIEW
Democracy: Stable since 2002. Presidential elections have been abolished (the president is
appointed by the most voted party) and the role of prime minister has been replaced by that of a
vice president directly under the president’s authority
Current GDP 2011E: 104,4 Bn USD (Africa’s 5th largest economy and 3rd in Sub-Saharan Africa)
Current p/cap GDP 2011E: 5.336,7 USD
Integrated in the SADC: A potential market of 266 Mn consum
 World’s fastest growing country worldwide between 2001 and 2010 (11% CAGR)*
ANGOLA OVERVIEW
Economic stability: recently secured a S&P LT rating of BB-
Stronger non-oil economy: 52,7% GDP weight in 2010 compared to 43,9% in 2002
Vast natural resources: 35 of the 45 most important minerals in world trade
Improvements in business climate: Approval of several fiscal & customs incentives to private
investment; approval of anti-money laundering and anti-corruption legislation
Capital Markets: stock exchange expected to open in 2013/14. Angolan Interbank market has now
its own reference rate: LUIBOR

10+ million people countries, excluding conflicted Iraq and Afghanistan
ANGOLA OVERVIEW
• The share of the GDP has dropped from oil and the main beneficiaries were Agriculture, Energy,
construction and industry
% of GDP 2006
% of GDP 2011
Agriculture
0,3%
Fishing and related
Diamonds and others
8,3%
7,3%
2,3%
7,2%
9,9%
0,2% 0,8%
Fishing and related
Oil
Industry
16,8%
Diamonds and others
21,2%
Oil
Construction
Energy
Commerce
Other
Agriculture
0,1%
Industry
4,3%
0,1%
7,7%
4,8%
55,7%
47,1%
Construction
Energy
Commerce
5,8%
Other
ANGOLA – ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• About 50% of the economy in 2009 was related to the
oil sector. The Angolan market got a big shock in 2009
due to the drop of oil prices.
• Since 2009 the governmental focus changed and the
objective is to turn the Angolan economy into a more
resilient one, diversifying the economy away from the
oil sector
• Several steps are being given to improve the conditions in the market
:
• Special conditions are given to exporting companies that are
establishing in Angola
• Investments in the Energy sector to reduce the power outages
and increase capacity needed for industry and for economic
development in general
• Investments in the transport sector through the construction of
Roads, Railways and Ports to increase the logistical capacity
• Development of a logistical plan to improve the storage of
agricultural products throughout the country
• Decrease the dollarization of the market and rely more on the
national currency to improve the credit creation in the financial
sector
ANGOLA – TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Housing
There is plenty offer in the luxury housing market and there are
government programs to create affordable housing for the lower
classes. The middle class however doesn’t have a big offer at
affordable prices.
Only now there becoming available house loans from the banks but
still the houses available are very expensive.
EDF SKY RESIDENCE
Health care
The life expectancy at birth is at 55 years and access to medical
conditions, specially in the rural areas is very basic or inexistent. There
are some private clinics available but very expensive.
The most complicated operation procedures and clinical specialties are
normally done in Portugal or South Africa, by the upper and middle
classes.
Education
The education level of the population is still very low. One of the most
challenging aspects that companies face working in Angola is the quality of
the people.
There is a lack of quality private schools at prices aimed at the middle class.
Good technicians are very expensive and they change companies quite often
at a better offer. There are needs for technical schools in the following areas:
Leisure
Restaurants and bars are the main leisure attraction but there is still
lacking a offer for the middle class customer. Also there are very few
tourism done inside the country aimed at the Angolan costumer.
Agriculture and Agro processing
Agriculture is being one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy.
Angola has vast arable lands, although some are still being demined
from the civil war.
Agriculture and food products represent 15% of the imports. The
logistical network is still deficient but investments are being made to
improve. There are already several retail chains of supermarkets where
to flow the products.
Energy
The market for energy services and products will be very interesting
because this will be one of the mains focus of investment of the
government for several years. Angola is very deficietary in power
producing to meet its needs. It will need continuous investment to be
able to sustain the projected growth.
Logistics
The logistic infrastructure in the country is very challenging, specially in
the interior of the country. Distribution country wide is done by each entity
investing in warehouse capabilities, which is not possible for most of the
companies.
There is space for logistic hubs for region integration. This will be
enhanced in the future with the investment being done in roads and
railways.
Information and Communication Technologies
Regarding the communications there are already large players in the market and often is a very
controlled market. However there are still opportunities for service providers for the network expansion.
The institutions and most of the companies operating in the market are still very low users of
information technologies. There has been a effort from the government and large companies to
increase their investment in Information technologies for gains in efficiency and control.
MOZAMBIQUE OVERVIEW
• Population: 24 million (2011 estimates)
• Language: Portuguese
• Nominal GDP: 14,6 Billion USD
GDP Composition (2008)
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
3,8%
7,2%
Manufacturing
Electricity, oil, gas & water
29,7%
9,8%
Construction
10,1%
Wholesale & retail trade,
restaurants, hotels
Finance, insurance, real
estate, etc.
1,5%
13,7%
16,4%
Transport and
communications
Public administration and
defense
2,9%
5,0%
MOZAMBIQUE OVERVIEW
• The main growing sectors in the last years have been Agriculture, Services and Construction
• The mining sector recently had a large growth and it is expected to be one of the main drivers of
the economy. The discovery and the exploration of large reserves of coal and Gas are the main
contributors
GDP Growth by Sector
250%
225%
200%
175%
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-50%
Agriculture
Wholesale & retail trade, restaurants, hotels
Transport and communications
MOZAMBIQUE – ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The economic reality of Mozambique is very different from the one in Angola. The main contributor for
the GDP are the base metals and the Minerals, specially the Aluminum factory Mozal.
However the country is still far from having an economy that generates a surplus and a more stable and
strong economy.
In the past years the bet has been to develop the large resources deposits of Coal and Gas, which
presently has been bringing into the country large investments and the surrounding business activity.
The main areas of investment are Tete, Nacala, Pemba and Palma.
Here the main bulk of investment is being made by private
companies such as VALE, RIO TINTO, ENI, ANADARKO and
GALP. The government has been privatizing also the railway and
port operations to private entities, because of the lack of
resources to invest, maintain and operate on their own.
Some steps have also been taken to create a free zone in Nacala
to try to capture investments in industries. Some benefits are
given to companies who setup their facilities in there.
MOZAMBIQUE – TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Housing
The main driver in the housing industry has been the expat demand that
are moving into Mozambique. The prices have risen considerable in the
last years due to lack of offerings. This is more acute in the cities outside
Maputo.
Reconstruction works or new units are being done to catch up with the
demand.
Most Mozambicans cannot afford the prices of a house, but the middle
class is starting to have purchasing power although in a very limited way.
Edf. Polanas
Health care
The life expectancy at birth is at 52 years and access to medical conditions, specially in the rural
areas is very basic or inexistent. In Maputo, the more wealthy people and even in the middle class, it
is quite common to have medical exams in South Africa, due to the proximity and quality of the
medical services
In the more remote areas, normally where the multinationals operate, there are clinics sponsored or
owned by the private companies to give first response medical services public.
MOZAMBIQUE – TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Logistics
The logistic infrastructure in the country is very challenging, specially in the interior of the country.
Distribution country wide is done by each entity investing in warehouse capabilities, which is not
possible for most of the companies.
There is space for logistic hubs for region integration. This will be enhanced in the future with the
investment being done in roads and railways.
Information and Communication Technologies
Regarding the communications there are already large players
in the market and often is a very controlled market. However
there are still opportunities for service providers for the network
expansion.
The institutions and most of the companies operating in the
market are still very low users of information technologies. There
has been a effort from the government and large companies to
increase their investment in Information technologies for gains in
efficiency and control.
Accelerating the Growth of Mobile and
Agribusiness Enterprise.
The institute of Information
Technology of Mozambique
SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCÍPE OVERVIEW
• Population: 187 Thousand (2012 estimates)
• Language : Portuguese
• Nominal GDP: 250 Million USD
GDP Composition (2008)
5,4%
Agriculture
15,7%
Manufacturing
19,7%
6,9%
8,9%
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade,
restaurants, hotels
Transport and
communications
2,4%
33,3%
7,6%
Other services
SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCÍPE OVERVIEW
• The main growing sectors in the last years have been Agriculture, Oil & Gas and Retail and
services.
• The Oil & Gas sector is expected to be one of the main drivers of the economy in the future. The
discovery and the exploration of large reserves of Oil jointly with the other neighboring countries, will
be have a very high impact
50%
GDP Growth by Sector
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-10%
-20%
Agriculture
Wholesale & retail trade, restaurants, hotels
STRATEGY FOR BUSINESS SUCCESS IN AFRICA
 Permanent Local Presence to Develop Relations and Market Knowledge
 Define a Strategic Planning Before Invest, Supported with Reliable Market Research
 Strong Financial/Investment Support in any Activity
 Select Markets and Business Areas with Low Competition
 Establish Strong and Strategic Local Partnership
 Understand and Respect the Local Social and Cultural Costumes/Traditions
THANK YOU
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA
Rahim Ahamad
Colombia, November 2013

Diapositiva 1

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