January 2015

ERA Monthly Market Analysis
January 2015
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Introduction
For the production of these statistics in the following report, ERA has teamed up with partners Seabury and Innovata to provide
a comprehensive analysis of ERA’s members’ performance.
The analysis performed by Seabury, is based on schedule data that has been provided by Innovata and gives a comprehensive
overview of the sector.
This report examines the performance of ERA members carriers (and in some cases the wider European regional airline
network) who report schedule data to Innovata as well as market dynamics and outlook for the Winter 2014 and Summer 2015
schedules.
Seabury is a global advisory and investment banking firm. The firm
provides information covering aviation, air cargo and maritime industry with
a depth of analytics to support rapid decision making.
Innovata specialises in travel content management and distribution
solutions. The firm maintains and markets an industry standard flight
schedules database with over 800 participating airlines.
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Summary
• January figures indicate reduction in departures and aircraft seat capacity for ERA carriers
vis-à-vis January-2014 (once adjustments have been made for changes to member
airlines)
• Aircraft gauge is up vs. last year, continuing the trend seen at the end of 2014
• Growth of seats has been witnessed on all route types except regional domestic service,
where total seats have declined 2% year-on-year
• Regional and small FSC carriers have added international capacity overall in winter,
though not anywhere close to the relative increase in LCC seats
• Looking ahead to 2015, LCCs appear to be cutting thinner routes and adding capacity
elsewhere, which could yield opportunities for regional carrier expansion (though full
schedules for Summer ’15 are subject to constant change)
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Note: 1Operated by European airlines only.
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Part 1: ERA Performance
ERA Monthly Market Analysis, January 2015
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Deployed capacity
Seats numbers were down in Jan 2015 vs a year earlier, continuing a trend that was seen in most of 2014
Total seats
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Total movements
ERA route numbers continue to decline, down 3% in January 2015 vs a year earlier
Total movements
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Stage length
Average sector stage length was marginally up in January 2015, increasing from Dec-14 and year-onyear
Average stage length in kilometers (km)
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Sector duration
Average sector duration is unchanged vs. Dec-14 at 1h12 block hours
Average duration in hours
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Aircraft seating capacity
Despite an overall fall in seats year-on-year, average aircraft gauge is up 4% vs. Jan-14
Average number of seats per flight
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only; cargo flights excluded.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Route count
The number of routes operated by ERA carriers is now at its lowest since at least Feb-13
Route count
Year-on-Year %
Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only; routes counted bi-directionally.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Part 2: Market Dynamics
ERA Monthly Market Analysis, January 2015
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Regional carrier focus continues to be on shorter, thinner routes
Regional carriers higher frequency profile differentiates them from competitor models
Regionals capacity share in 2014
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Seasonality profile of Regionals appears stable
Regional carriers achieve slightly higher international seat shares (10-11%) in the winter season
Total seats
Year-on-Year % change
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Regionals relative share of seats is being diluted
LCC seat capacity share is growing at the expense of both regional and FSC carriers
Capacity share in %
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Smaller aircraft gauge deployed by regionals and ERA carriers
Regional carriers continue to operate significantly lower gauge aircraft compared to other business
models, though this has been increasing through 2014
Average number of seats per aircraft
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; cargo flights excluded.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Growth outlook in ERA’s member countries
Between 2013 and 2022, the European economy is forecast to grow at 2% CAGR; the fastest growth is
expected in Eastern Europe
GDP CAGR (2013 – 2022)
Note: Belarus GDP CAGR has been calculated based on 2013 - 2015 and Luxembourg and Iceland CAGR based on 2013 – 2018 available data.
Source: EIU - Real GDP (US$ at 2005 prices) forecast of 2013 - 2022.
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Part 3: Winter 2014-15 Outlook
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Intra-European domestic market grows its capacity by 2%
INDICATIVE
Regional airline domestic cuts are low relative to Small FSCs; LCC seat capacity is higher in W14-15 vs
W13-14
Domestic capacity % changes (Winter 2013 versus Winter 2014)
Seats Winter 2014
17m
44m
15m
26m
3m
105m
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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INDICATIVE
Intra-European international market grows by 5%
Regional carriers appear to have shifted capacity to new routes vs. W13-14
International capacity % changes (Winter 2013 versus Winter 2014)
Seats Winter 2014
14m
63m
39m
74m
7m
196m
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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LCCs are strengthening operations on shorter sectors
INDICATIVE
In Winter 2014, LCCs are planning to expand slightly more on shorter sectors (+17% compared to +11%
on sectors above 650 km)
Total movements per sector length
80% of Regional
movements in W14
% share (flights)
% growth (flights)
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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INDICATIVE
Competitive overview
Large full service and LCC carriers maintain their route portfolios in Winter 2014; regional carriers are
planning to serve 3% less routes compared to Winter 2013
% changes (W13 vs. W14)
Regional / ERA members
• Regionals have published deployment of a
similar number of seats while operating less
flights and routes; routes are thicker in terms of
frequencies and seats
• Monopoly routes appear to be slightly lower vs.
Winter ‘14
Routes with capacity share ≥ 75%
Seats with capacity share ≥ 75%
LCC
• LCCs have loaded 12% more seats and 13%
more flights deployed on the same number of
routes as in W13
• Competitive mix is similar to regionals, but is
reducing further
Large FSC
• FSCs have filed operations for a modest
increase in routes, flights and capacity
• The number of routes and seats in monopoly
are slightly decreasing
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Country-to-country seat capacity forecast
INDICATIVE
Top 15 country-to-country flows based on total seat capacity in Winter 2014
Capacity growth (Winter 2013 versus Winter 2014)
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; countries are ordered as per total capacity in W14. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are
subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Part 4: Summer 2015 Outlook
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Notes on the following charts
Please note that Summer 2015 schedules have only been partially loaded
by most airlines. The following slides therefore should be considered with
caution due to the preliminary nature of the data on which they are based.
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INDICATIVE
Competitive overview
Summer 2015 schedules, as currently loaded, indicate a focus onto thicker routes whilst those with limited
service are cut
% changes (S14 vs. S15)
Regional / ERA members
• Regional airlines plan to vastly reduced the
number of routes operated vs. S14
• Seat capacity falls modestly, suggesting a focus
on thicker markets at the expense of those with
limited service
LCC
• LCCs have filed to operate more seats /
frequencies on a smaller pool of routes
Routes with capacity share ≥ 75%
Large FSC
• FSCs are operating 4% more seats and 5%
more flights on 12% less routes
Seats with capacity share ≥ 75%
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Intra-European domestic market maintains its capacity
INDICATIVE
FSCs and LCCs appear to be planning more capacity onto existing domestic routes for Summer 15
Domestic capacity % changes (Summer 2014 versus Summer 2015)
Seats Summer 2015
26m
70m
25m
45m
4m
170m
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Intra-European international market shows 4% reductions
INDICATIVE
Region airline international capacity growth is flat, with big cuts of capacity by closing routes being offset
by increases to current route capacity and opening of new destinations
International capacity % changes (Summer 2014 versus Summer 2015)
Seats Summer 2015
23m
113m
70m
162m
23m
390m
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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INDICATIVE
LCCs strengthen operations on shorter sectors
Summer 2015 schedules, as currently loaded, indicate increase in seats for LCC carriers on sectors
above 650 km
Total movements per sector length
78% of Regional
movements in S15
% share (flights)
% growth (flights)
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Country-to-country seat capacity forecast
INDICATIVE
Top 15 country-to-country flows based on total seat capacity in Summer 2015
Capacity growth (Summer 2014 versus Summer 2015)
Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; countries are ordered as per total capacity in S15. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are
subject to change.
Source: Innovata, January 2015 load, surface transportation excluded.
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Glossary
Regional carrier
Carrier with an average stage length less than 500 km or fleet without narrow-body
and wide-body aircraft (turboprops and / or regional jets only)
Large full service carrier (Large FSC)
Carrier whose fleet has more than 50 wide-body aircraft or more than 100 aircraft,
including at least 1 wide-body
Small full service carrier (Small FSC)
Carrier whose fleet contains at least one wide-body aircraft but less than 100 total
aircraft
Low cost carrier (LCC)
Any other carrier operating scheduled services with low-emphasis on its product
Domestic market
Origin and destination are located inside the same country
International market
Origin and destination are situated in different countries
CAGR
Compounded Annual Growth Rate
ERA member
All current ERA members who report data to Innovata (full list available on request)
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