Study on the ICT Application for Advanced Lifestyle Services in Binh
Transcription
Study on the ICT Application for Advanced Lifestyle Services in Binh
Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013 Study on the ICT Application for Advanced Lifestyle Services in Binh Duong Province, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Final Report February 2014 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC Japan External Trade Organization Prepared by: TOKYU CORPORATION NTT Communications Corporation : Reproduction Prohibited Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013 Study on the ICT Application for Advanced Lifestyle Services in Binh Duong Province, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam February 2014 The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC Japan External Trade Organization Prepared by: TOKYU CORPORTION NTT Communications Corporation Preface This report summarizes the results of the “Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013”, a fiscal 2013 project subcontracted to Tokyu Corporation and NTT Communications Corporation by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The “Study on the ICT Application for Advanced Lifestyle Services in Binh Duong Province, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam” outlined in this report focused on improving the communication environment, studying the ICT environment in relation to advanced essential services, and exploring the feasibility of a project with an approximate total project cost of 1.1 billion JPY to provide advanced essential services in the Binh Duong Province of Vietnam. We hope that this report will assist in the implementation of the aforementioned project, and be of use to all those involved on the Japanese side. February 2014 TOKYU CORPORATION NTT Communications Corporation Project Site Map Binh Duong Province National Route 13 Binh Duong New City Tan Son Nhat Airport Central Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation List of Abbreviation Abbreviation Full Name/Term ADB Asian Development Bank ADSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations BECAMEX IDC CORP Investment and Industrial Development Corporation BOT Built Operate Transfer EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return F/S Feasibility Study FTTH Fiber To The Home GDP Gross Domestic Product GDS Global Data Service ha hectare HCMC Ho Chin Ming City IC Integrated Circuit ICT Information and Communication Technology ID Identification IMF International Monetary Fund IRR Internal Rate of Return ISP Internet Service Provider IT Information Technology JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JPN Japan JPY Japanese Yen LAN Local Area Network Mbps Megabits per second NGO Non-Governmental Organizations NPV Net Present Value NW Network VND Vietnam Dong VNIX Vietnam National Internet Exchange VNPT Vietnam Posts and Telecommunication VNTT Vietnam Technology and Telecommunication VSIP Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park Abbreviation Full Name/Term VTN Vietnam Telecom National Table of Contents Preface Project Site Map List of Abbreviations Table of Contents Executive Summary (1) Project Background and Necessity ······················································································· S-1 1) Initiative for Development of Binh Duong New City ································································· S-1 2) Significance, Effect, etc. to Partner Country············································································ S-1 (2) Basic Policy on Determination of Project Details ······································································ S-2 1) Project for Advanced Life Services in Binh Duong New City ······················································· S-2 2) Life Service Business We Aim to Offer at This Point································································· S-2 (3) Overview of Proposed Project····························································································· S-3 1) Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System for Buses ··························································· S-3 2) Standalone Loyalty Point Card System in the Commercial Field ··················································· S-4 3) In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in the Security Business ·········································································································· S-4 (4) Project Implementation Schedule ························································································· S-5 (5) Project Feasibility ··········································································································· S-6 1) Implementation feasibility································································································· S-6 2) Necessary measures going forward ······················································································ S-7 a) Reinforce the support extended to a collective group of private and public sectors ··························· S-7 b) Build a partnership with related local authorities ··································································· S-7 c) The importance of locally based coordination between the public and private sectors ························ S-8 (6) Technical and Other Advantages of Japanese Companies ···························································· S-9 (7) Project Site Map ··········································································································S-10 Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sectors (1) Economic and Financial Situation in the Partner Country ···························································· 1-1 1) Overview of Vietnam ······································································································ 1-1 2) Macro Economy ············································································································ 1-3 (2) Overview of Project Sector ································································································ 1-6 1) Organizational Structure of the Information and Communication/ICT Sector in Vietnam ······················ 1-6 2) Information and Communication/ICT Policy in Vietnam ···························································· 1-7 3) The Current ICT Environment in Vietnam ·············································································· 1-7 4) Development Policy for Industrial Parks and Industrial Clusters···················································· 1-9 5) Urban Development Policy in Binh Duong Province in Vietnam ·················································· 1-10 6) Most Recent Developments Concerning This Project ································································ 1-11 (3) The Situation in the Area Covered by the Study ······································································ 1-12 1) Overview of Binh Duong Province ····················································································· 1-12 2) Overview of Binh Duong New City ···················································································· 1-12 3) Progress with Urban Development in Binh Duong Province ······················································· 1-13 Chapter 2 Study Methodology (1) Study Contents ·············································································································· 2-1 (2) Study Method and Structure ······························································································· 2-3 1) Survey items ················································································································· 2-3 a) Survey on improvement of the telecommunications environment ················································ 2-2 b) Survey on advanced life services ······················································································ 2-3 2) Survey methods ············································································································· 2-3 3) Survey structure ············································································································· 2-4 (3) Study Schedule ·············································································································· 2-6 Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project (1) Project Background and Necessity ······················································································· 3-1 1) Initiative for Development of Binh Duong New City ································································· 3-1 2) Project for Advanced Life Services in Binh Duong New City ······················································· 3-2 3) Significance, Effect, etc. to Partner Country············································································ 3-3 a) “Binh Duong Province master plan on development of information technology for 2010 and vision for 2020” ···························································································································· 3-3 b) “Binh Duong Province master plan on development of post and telecommunications for 2015 and vision for 2020” ····················································································································· 3-3 4) Possibility of Participation of Japanese Companies ··································································· 3-3 a) Provision of IT systems for Life Services ············································································ 3-3 b) Reinforcement of Data Centers and Provision of Cloud Services ················································ 3-3 c) Introduction of a Facility Maintenance and Management System ················································ 3-4 (2) Studies Necessary for Determining Project Details ···································································· 3-5 1) Demand Forecast ··········································································································· 3-5 2) Problem Identification and Analysis Necessary for Studying and Determination of Project Details··········· 3-5 a) Life Service Businesses ································································································· 3-5 b) ICT Environment Improvement ······················································································· 3-7 3) Consideration of Technical Approaches ··············································································· 3-15 (3) Overview of Project Plan ································································································· 3-16 1) Basic Policy on Determination of Project Details ···································································· 3-16 a) Advanced Life Service Project in Binh Duong New City ························································ 3-16 b) Life Service Businesses Currently Envisioned ····································································· 3-16 2) Concept Design and Use of Facilities that Reflect it ································································· 3-16 a) Envisioned Business Expansion ······················································································ 3-16 b) Business Concept Chart (Envisioned Services) ···································································· 3-17 c) Business Scheme Diagram ···························································································· 3-18 3) Details of Proposed Project ······························································································ 3-19 a) Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System for Buses ······················································· 3-19 b) Standalone Loyalty Point Card System in the Commercial Field ··············································· 3-19 c) In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in the Security Business ······································································································ 3-20 4) Problems with Adoption of Technologies and Systems Proposed, and Respective Solutions·················· 3-20 a) Life Service Businesses ································································································ 3-20 b) ICT Environment Improvement ······················································································ 3-20 Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts (1) Current Situation Analysis of Environmental and Social Aspects ··················································· 4-1 (2) Environmental Improvement Effect Associated with Implementation of the Project ····························· 4-2 (3) Impact on Environmental and Social Aspects Associated with Implementation of the Project ················· 4-2 (4) Overview of Environmental and Social Consideration-related Laws and Regulations of the Partner Country and Required Measures to Comply with Them ········································································· 4-2 (5) Matters to Be Implemented by the Country (Project Developer and Other Relevant Organizations) to Realize the Project ···················································································································· 4-4 Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation (1) Estimates of Total Project Costs ·························································································· 5-1 1) Introduction of standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses ············································ 5-1 2) Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field ····································· 5-2 3) Introduction of in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business································································································ 5-2 (2) Summary of the Results of the Preliminary Financial and Economic Analyses ··································· 5-3 1) Project implementation system ··························································································· 5-3 2) Summary of financial analysis results ··················································································· 5-3 a) Introduction of standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses ········································· 5-3 b) Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field ·································· 5-6 c) Introduction of in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business ························································································ 5-8 3) Review of the economic analysis ························································································· 5-8 Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule ·························································································· 6-1 Chapter 7 Implementing Organizations (1) Profiles of Organizations Involved in the Project ······································································ 7-1 (2) Ability of Organizations Related to Implementation of the Project·················································· 7-1 1) History ······················································································································· 7-1 2) Corporate profile············································································································ 7-1 3) Major achievements, etc. ·································································································· 7-2 Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies (1) Presumable Form of Participation of Japanese Companies (in investment, supply of materials and equipment, operation and management of facilities, etc.) ··············································································· 8-1 1) Form of Investment ········································································································ 8-1 2) Supply of Materials and Equipment ····················································································· 8-2 3) Operation and Management of Facilities ················································································ 8-3 (2) Technical, Economic and Other Advantages of Japanese Companies in Implementation of the Project······· 8-4 1) Technical Advantage ······································································································· 8-4 2) Economic Advantage ······································································································ 8-5 (3) Actions Requisite to Helping Japanese Companies Gain More Orders ············································· 8-5 1) Strengthening of Support in Collaboration Between Public and Private Sectors ·································· 8-5 2) Building of Partnerships with Local Relevant Organizations ························································ 8-5 Executive Summary (1) Project Background and Necessity 1) Initiative for Development of Binh Duong New City Vietnam is seeing its economy growth at a rapid pace despite the growth rate dropping to 5-6%.Binh Duong Province is located close to Ho Chi Minh City and achieves one of the highest growth rates in the country, with the annual average GDP growth rate ranging 14-15%. In the province, construction of a large-scale satellite city centered on relocation to a new provincial office building was commenced in efforts to suppress population concentration in the suburbs of Ho Chi Minh City. In response to the Binh Duong New City construction project, we at Tokyu Corporation established a joint venture, Becamex Tokyu Co., Ltd., with Becamex IDC Corp., a leading developer in Binh Duong Province mainly involved in construction of industrial parks, residential districts and roads since its foundation in 1976. Through this joint venture, we are planning a project valued at approximately 100 billion yen for development of Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City with an approximate block area of 110 ha and site area of 71 ha consisting of around 7,500 residential houses, commercial facilities, business facilities and other features in Binh Duong New City, for an approximate total area of 1,000 ha. As the first part of the project, we put into Phase 1 general sales for the condominium project called Sora Gardens in April 2013. We thus embarked on very-long-term urban development in efforts to, in more than 10 years, create a new city with a daytime population of 400,000. 2) Significance, Effect, etc. to Partner Country With an approximate area of 1,000 ha, Binh Duong New City is located inside Binh Duong Industrial-UrbanService Complex of approximately 4,196 ha. The master plan for this complex was approved via the Vietnamese government with the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 912 on September 1, 2005, and the new city is at the heart of Binh Duong Province, for which promotion to a city under direct control of the Vietnamese central government is planned for 2020. Notably, it has been determined that all administrative functions of the province, including the provincial committee of the Communist Party, people’s committee and people’s assembly, will be concentrated in the new city. S-1 (2) Basic Policy on Determination of Project Details 1) Project for Advanced Life Services in Binh Duong New City In the urban development of Binh Duong New City, we strive to enable residents to enjoy comfortable lifestyles as close as possible to the level of developed countries, namely Japan. For determining the details and specifications of the life services Tokyu Corporation will offer, we need to gain accurate insight as appropriate into the Vietnamese step-by-step plan to construct an ICT environment that will support operations of our services. 2) Life Service Business We Aim to Offer at This Point The plan for Becamex Tokyu is to operate a bus to improve the convenience of commuters and visitors to Binh Duong New City starting in 2014 by connecting the city with existing cities and towns. Also, we are aiming to be a comprehensive operator of an advanced life service business by operating retail businesses, among others, in addition to the residential business that we are already engaged in. The Life Service Business that we aim to offer at this point is as follows. Standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses Standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field In-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business S-2 (3) Overview of Proposed Project As shown in the diagram below, Becamex Tokyu, a joint venture established by Tokyu Corporation and Becamex IDC, will serve as the main organizational entity and operate the business. Figure Summary-1 Diagram of Business Operation Scheme in Binh Duong New City BECAMEX IDC Tokyu Coporation Joint Company BECAMEX TOKYU Office buildings Commercial buildings Point card Executing body Residential Security Bus service Other urban facilities, infrastructure IC Pass Binh Duong New City Source: Created by the Study Team An overview of the advanced life service business we plan to offer at this point in time is as follows. 1) Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System for Buses Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 16,662 million (including VND 7,951 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table Summary-2 Overview of Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System Operations for Buses Item Launch to Year 1 Year 2 Years 3-4 Years 5-6 Years 7-10 Number of Approx. 10 Approx. 15 Approx. 20 Approx. 30 Approx. 35 Approx. 3,500 Approx. 6,000 Approx. Approx. Approx. 9,000 11,000 15,000 Approx. 100 Approx. 140 Approx. 170 buses Number. of cards issued Number of drivers & crew members Equipment, etc. Approx. 50 Approx. 70 Terminal: Bus-mounted terminals (in same quantity as number of buses), renewal stations, terminals for inspectors, etc. S-3 Hardware : A issuing office, a garage, a server, etc. Source: Created by the Study Team 2) Standalone Loyalty Point Card System in the Commercial Field Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 8,297 million (including VND 6,496 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table Summary -3 Overview of Standalone Loyalty Point Card System Operations in the Commercial Field Items Shop area Number of shops Number of issued cards From May 2014 2 Approx. 4,500 m Approx. 15 Approx. 10,000 From December 2015 Approx. 3,000 m2 Approx. 15 Approx. 10,000 From January 2016 Approx. 3,500 m2 Approx. 10 Approx. 7,000 From September 2017 Approx. 30,000 m2 Approx. 5 Approx. 2,000 From March 2020 2 Approx. 23,000 m Approx. 10 Approx. 6,000 Total Approx. 64,000 m2 Approx. 55 Approx. 35,000 Source: Created by the Study Team 3) In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in the Security Business Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 198,352 million (including VND 20,240 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table Summary -4 Overview of Operations of In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in Security Busines Year No. of houses (cumulative total) No. of security system subscriptions 2014 Approx. 1,000 Approx. 300 2015 Approx. 2,000 Approx. 600 2023 Approx. 52,000 Approx. 16,000 Source: Created by the Study Team S-4 (4) Project Implementation Schedule The table below shows the implementation schedule for each project. As noted in Chapter 4, regarding schedules that are associated with considerations for the environment and society, we have not included them in the scheduling because we would not be able to foresee items that could have a serious impact. Table Summary -5 Project Implementation Schedule(draft) Fiscal 2013 1 1. Introduction of smart card commuter passes (1) Discussions regarding system design and specifications (2) Tendering 2 3 Fiscal 2014 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fiscal 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 Start of bus services (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation 2. Trial of loyalty point card system (1) Discussions regarding system specifications (2) Tendering Opening of small-scale commercial facility (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation 3. Introduction of employee monitoring system (1) Discussions regarding system specifications (2) Tendering Introduction of employee monitoring system (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation Source: Created by the Survey Team S-5 6 (5) Project Feasibility 1) Implementation feasibility Results of the financial analyses of the three businesses are as follows. Table Summary-6 Results of financial analyses of the three businesses Smart card commuter Loyalty point card Surveillance system in the pass system in the bus system in the security business business commercial area 14.51% 13.60% 14.89% 3.228 billion VND (≒ 1.35 billion VND (≒ 26.612 billion VND (≒ 15.9 million yen) 6.7 million yen) 131.5 million yen) FIRR (Financial Internal Rate of Return) NPV (Net Present Value) Note: Project Period is 10 years and discount rate is 9.00% Source: Created by the Study Team In addition, as shown below, we will attempt a qualitative assessment of the anticipated social benefits resulting from implementing each project. Table Summary-7 Expected social benefits by implementing each project User benefits Improved convenience by enabling passengers to be without small change and to smoothly get on and off Introduction of standalone Social benefits smartcard commuter pass system Smoother getting on and off the bus will enable stoppage for buses time to reduce and contribute to alleviation of traffic congestion Contribution to environmental improvement through promoting the modal shift User benefits Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field Economic benefits from redeeming loyalty points Social benefits Encouraging people to purchase products will boost consumer spending, which will contribute to regional economic growth Introduction of in-home User benefits monitoring system for residents Economic benefits from improvements in services from and employee monitoring system for business owners in the housekeepers, employees, etc. Social benefits S-6 Improved security security business Realization of disciplinary work environment Source: Created by the Study Team Consequently, while we cannot anticipate sufficient profitability from a quantitative point of view, we assess that this business is feasible given the social benefits. 2) Necessary measures going forward The following has been determined as necessary measures going forward. a) Reinforce the support extended to a collective group of private and public sectors The three businesses are standalone entities to be implemented separately, but it is important for both the public and private sectors to act as one to push along the project. For example, the use of smart cards would spread to a greater number of bus users, along with enabling us to set our sights on tying up with Metro Line 1 in the future. This would be possible if financial assistance from our nation’s government is realized in the form of providing equipment, such as actual buses or equipment for smart cards that is to be installed in buses, as well as offering technological expertise. This would be aimed at strengthening the bus business that Becamex Tokyu plans to begin operating in 2014 and is to connect Thu Dau Mot, the central section of the Binh Duong Province, with Binh Duong New City, as well as to reinforce the smart card issuance business associated with this bus business. b) Build a partnership with related local authorities Regarding Binh Duong Province adopting smart cards, the critical point is to strengthen our relationship with Becamex IDC, which is a leader in developments in the province. Also, since local banks will be the main issuing body of smart cards, we will also work on building our relations with local banks that might possibly become issuers. Otherwise, it is necessary to gather information, as necessary, by making use of the network with the Binh Duong Province’s Department of Information and Communications, with whom Tokyu Corporation has had an excellent relationship thus far via conducting a survey on ICT. In addition to building a relationship with each private enterprise related to the business, it is also necessary to reach out to the governments of Vietnam as well as that for the Binh Duong Province, as needed, in an effort to secure a partnership with public entities. This business was initially aimed to delve deeply into surveying the ICT environment that Tokyo Corporation was conducting on its own. But now, an important element in promoting this business is the strengthening of relationships with the nation of Vietnam as well as with the Binh Duong provincial government and the resultant lobbying related to this business. This is in light of our government adopting the business as a project, which has made it easy to build relationships as a result of securing the understanding of the Binh Duong provincial government and an improvement in the quality of the information offered, among other things. S-7 c) The importance of locally based coordination between the public and private sectors Needless to say, to achieve success in developing a city, it is essential to set up an integrated lifestyle infrastructure, which includes everything and not only limited to residences, offices and commercial facilities developed by private-sector business owners, but also the ICT environment that was covered by this ICT study and also water and sewage services, electricity services, public transportation, hospitals and schools. These integrated facilities go beyond the role of private-sector business owners and can only be realized by close cooperation between the public and private sectors. In order for Tokyu Corporation to export a Japanese town and develop advanced life-style services in Binh Duong New City, it is critical for the Binh Duong Province, which is the regional government, and Becamex IDC, as well as Becamex Tokyu to work as one to construct a life-style infrastructure in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Needless to say, in promoting this endeavor, it is crucial that Tokyu Corporation, which has a wealth of experience in Japan, become proactively involved through Becamex Tokyu as a partner in the joint venture with Becamex IDC. S-8 (6) Technical and Other Advantages of Japanese Companies We adopt PASMO and Suica transit fare smart cards based on Japanese a technology for our own Group’s Tokyu Bus services. We will be able to capitalize on this experience for introduction of transit fare smart cards to Binh Duong Province. With respect to loyalty point cards we also have a record of results in introduction and operation since we issue and operate our TOP& point card. This card is associated with PASMO and Suica and can also function as a transit fare smart card. In the security business, we have a subsidiary of Tokyu Security Co., Ltd. to offer a building monitoring system and many other security services. As mentioned above, the technologies used in this project are some of those in practical application on a commercial basis as living services that we already operate in Japan. We have an extensive track record and abundant experience in offering similar services in Binh Duong Province. Looking ahead to the future, the smart card standards used for the aforementioned three projects should be the same as those used for Metro Line 1. We are exploring the possibility of introducing Sony’s FeliCa card standard, which uses Japanese technology, to Metro Line 1. Although its market share is high in Japan, FeliCa lags behind NXP Semiconductors based in the Netherlands, which owns the MIFARE technology, and behind US-based Motorola in the global market. Their technologies fall under what is known as Type A and Type B standards. However, FeliCa is superior to their technologies in terms of response speed, storage capacity and security features. It excels particularly when it is used at automatic ticket gates, building entry gates, cash registers, etc. where high-speed processing is required. FeliCa is widely used in the Asia region with its high population density, and it is a technology that easily achieves the level of lifestyles realized in Japanese cities. Adopted in Japan for PASMO and Suica transit fare smart cards and Edy electronic money, FeliCa contributes to greater convenience in people’s lives. The aim is to introduce integrated smart cards covering transport, electronic money and security services to achieve the Japanese standard of living in Binh Duong Province. S-9 (7) Project Site Map Figure Summary-8 Project Map Binh Duong Province National Route 13 Binh Duong New City Tan Son Nhat Airport Central Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation S-10 Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sectors (1) Economic and Financial Situation in the Partner Country 1) Overview of Vietnam Vietnam is located in the eastern part of the Indochinese Peninsula. The country borders the People's Republic of China to the north, and Laos and Cambodia to the West. Vietnam is a socialist state with a system for state administration that consists of the three organs of the People's Councils, the National Assembly and the central government. At approximately 330,000 Km2, the land area is equivalent to Japan when excluding Kyushu. There are five centrally controlled municipalities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Hai Phong, Da Nang and Can Tho) and 58 provinces. Eighty percent of the population is Buddhist. Religious conflict is rare and the country is politically and socially stable. Figure1-1 Vietnam and neighboring countries Source: The World Fact Book, CIA Figure1-2 Basic information about Vietnam Indicator Land area 329,241 km2 (approx. 85% the size of Japan) Population Approx. 89.7 million (As of 2012, UN population statistics) Capital city Hanoi Ethnicity Kinh (Viet) approx. 86%, 53 other ethnic groups Language Vietnamese Literacy rate Religion 92.8% (2009) Buddhism, Catholicism, Cao Dai and other Source: Basic Country Data, Ministry of Foreign Affairs 1-1 Figure1-3 Total population( including estimates) Total Population(1,000 persons) 120,000 Total Population 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: World Population Prospects Figure 1-4: Demographic structure of Vietnam Source: U.S. Census Bureau “International Data Base (IDB)” The population of Vietnam is steadily increasing. As of June 2013, it had a population of 92.47 million, ranking it as the 14th most populous country in the world, or 3rd amongst ASEAN member nations. The urban population is 28.81 million (32.5% of the total) while the rural population is 59.97 million (67.5%). The capital of Hanoi has a population of 6.92 million (7.8% of the total population) and Ho Chi Minh has a population of 1-2 7.75 million (8.7%). In terms of ethnic mix, 85% are Kinh and 53 ethnic groups make up the rest of the population. The average age is 28.7 and 65% of the population is under 40, which makes the country attractive as a labor market. 2) Macro Economy Figure 1-5: GDP of Vietnam (Unit:Billion Dong) (Unit:%) Service Industry and construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing Growth Rate 3,500,000 3,000,000 12 10 2,500,000 8 2,000,000 6 1,500,000 4 1,000,000 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 0 1992 0 1991 2 1990 500,000 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam In 1986, Vietnam adopted a policy of Doi Moi (renovation) that introduced capitalist production and distribution systems while maintaining the socialist system. By promoting the Doi Moi policies, economic growth sped up and by the mid-1990s, the country had even achieved high annual growth rate of 9%, but then came the 1997 Asian currency crisis and by 1999 the growth rate had slowed down. Since 2000, the high annual growth rate has remained at the level of 7 to 8%. In April 2006, the 10th Communist Party Congress reviewed the track record of the Doi Moi policy over the 20 years since it was introduced and adopted a resolution to promote further market economic policies. Although growth slowed again after the global financial crisis in 2008, the 9th five-year plan for the period 2011 to 2015 aims for an average growth rate of 7 to 8% and to raise GDP per capita to 2100 US dollars by 2015. Growth in GDP per capita has slowed since the 2008 global financial crisis, but it still remains strong. The new ten-year Socio-Economic Development Strategy 2011-2020 also outlines plans to raise GDP per capita to 3,000-3,200 US dollars, which is expected to increase the middle-income classes. In line with the development of market economy under the Doi Moi policy since 1990, the industrial structure has seen a decrease in the ratio of the agricultural sector and an increase in the industrial sector. The national 1-3 strategy has targeted further growth in the industrial sector since 2000, including the ten-year national strategy (2011-2020). The industrial sector will remain at the center of national strategy. Figure 1-6: Trade Balance of Vietnam (Unit:million USD) 140,000 Exports Imports Balance 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -20,000 -40,000 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Figure 1-7: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (Unit:Million USD) 80,000 70,000 (Unit:Number) Registered capital Number of projects(Right Axis) Implementation capital 1400 1200 60,000 1000 50,000 800 40,000 600 30,000 400 20,000 200 10,000 0 0 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam 1-4 Figure 1-8: Sectors of Projects approved for FDI (investment by area from 1988 to 2012 1.5% 1.5% Manufacturing 1.4% 3.0% Real estate activities 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% Accommodation and food service activities 3.6% Construction Electricity, gas, stream and air conditioning supply Information and communication 4.8% 5.0% Arts, entertainment and recreation 50.3% Transporation and storage Agriculture, forestry and fishing 23.6% Mining and quarrying Wholesale and retail trade; Repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Other Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Figure 1-9: Amount of investment by region (1988-2012) Ho Chi Minh City Ba Ria 15.4% Hanoi 26.5% Dong Nai 12.5% Binh Duong Ha Tinh Hai Phong 2.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 5.0% 10.1% Thanh Hoa Phu Yen 8.5% 9.5% Hai Duong Other Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam There is also steady development in investment from all countries. In recent years, the field of investment has expanded from the manufacturing industry to real estate development. Much overseas investment in Vietnam, including from Japan, is targeted at the manufacturing industry, but in the south, investment in the service industry is growing in addition to manufacturing. In 2012, Tokyu Corporation invested 1.2 billion US dollars in real estate development in Binh Duong Province, accounting for 15% of total investment in the region for that year. Binh Duong Province ranks fifth for investment amount by region in Vietnam and is also attracting attention from abroad as an investment location. 1-5 (2) Overview of Project Sector 1) Organizational Structure of the Information and Communication/ICT Sector in Vietnam The information and communication/ICT sector in Vietnam is controlled by the Ministry of Information Technology (MIC). With jurisdiction over areas such as communications, broadcasting, the press and publishing, the MIC is responsible for formulating, issuing and providing guidance on the implementation of legislation, policies and development strategies in relation to the information and communication industry. It also grants operating permits for overseas organizations and companies entering the communication infrastructure sector in Vietnam. The National Steering Committee on ICT (NSCICT) meanwhile is responsible for supervising the information and communication sector. As well as advising the MIC and the Prime Minister regarding IT policies and strategies, the committee provides advice on IT policies and strategies determined directly by the Prime Minister, and on project-related legislation, policies and development strategies. It also provides advice and overseas the formulation of IT policies and regulations by provincial governments or individual sectors. Beneath the MIC, there are ministerial IT departments, provincial departments of information and communication, and both ministerial and provincial steering committees. These are responsible for planning and implementing IT policies and strategies in line with development plans, formulated in accordance with MIC policies and strategies. Tokyu Corporation and its counterpart in this project, Becamex Tokyu, entered into discussions with the Binh Duong Province Department of Information and Communication regarding an ICT project in Binh Duong Province in July 2012. Figure 1-10 Government Organizational Structure in Relation to ICT National Steering Committee on ICT: NSCICT Ministry of Information and Communications : MIC Ministerial Steering Provincial Steering Committee on ICT Committee on ICT IT Departments of Ministries, Provincial Departments of ministerial–level and Information and government-attached agencies Communication : DICs Source: Vietnam Information and Communication Technology White Book 2011 1-6 2) Information and Communication/ICT Policy in Vietnam A 500 billion VND fund was established in 2004, in accordance with “Decision No.191/2004QD-TTg on the setting up, organization and operation of Vietnam Public Telecommunication Service Fund”. As a result of the relevant decision, VNPT is aiming to extend broadband access to all villages, get 10-15% people onto the Internet in rural areas, and achieve 100% coverage for television broadcasting by the year 2015. In terms of ICT policy, “Decision No.246/2005/QD-TTg approving the strategy on Vietnam information and communication technology development till 2010 and orientation towards 2020” was approved and issued in 2005, with the aim of harnessing ICT technology in key domestic sectors. In 2010, “Decision No.1755/QD-TTg approving the scheme to early make Vietnam a country strong in information and communication technologies” was issued. This included the overall target of increasing ICT to 8-10% of GDP by 2020, and set out individual projects in areas such as promoting broadband, including rural communities, and promoting the use of information and communication devices in the home. At the provincial level, “Decision No.1605/QD-TTg of the Prime Minister approving the national program of application of information technology to operations of state agencies” was issued in 2010. The aim is to completely overhaul communication infrastructure, install IT applications and transfer almost all government services online by the year 2020, to enable e-government services to commence by 2015. 3) The Current ICT Environment in Vietnam According to an MIC white paper on the information and communication industry in Vietnam, Internet access is increasing but was still around the 40% mark overall as of 2012. There were 80 Internet service providers as of March 2011, headed by VNPT with a share of 72%, followed by FPT Telecom at 13% and Viettel at 10%. The number of broadband subscribers reached 8.5 million in 2013, equivalent to 9.2% of the population. With the number of subscribers almost doubling compared to 2012 (4.64%), broadband is evidently starting to take off, due in part to a government policy aimed at rolling out broadband to villages. The same is true in Binh Duong Province, as featured in this survey report. According to the “Investment Guidebook to Binh Duong Province”, an FTTH network has already been laid for Binh Duong New City in the central part of the province. The city’s enhanced information and communication infrastructure is one of the key points used to attract companies. According to a basic survey conducted independently by Tokyu Corporation in August 2012 however, the communication environment in Binh Duong Province is inferior to that in Ho Chin Minh. The survey also confirmed cases where IT systems essential to business activities are restricted, including cloud-based production management systems as used by corporate head offices in Japan, high quality video conferencing systems, and high capacity file transfer systems. Having assessed the quality of Internet services in Binh Duong Province as part of this survey (full details outlined in Chapter 3), less than 15% of users in the province were found to have equivalent connection speeds to those in Ho Chi Minh (50Mbps). The quality of Internet services in Binh Duong Province was also deemed to be particularly poor in the case of international 1-7 connections. Figure 1-11 Internet Service Providers’ Market Shares 2% 1% 1% 1% VNPT 10% FPT Telecom Viettel 13% SCTV EVN Telecom SPT 72% Others Source: Vietnam Information and Communication Technology White Book 2011 Figure 1-12 Internet Access in Vietnam (2000-2012) インターネット普及率 Internet access (%) 45 39.49 40 35.07 35 30.65 30 23.92 25 20.76 17.25 20 12.74 15 7.64 10 5 26.55 1.85 0.25 1.27 3.78 0 Source: International Telecommunication Union:ITU 1-8 Figure 1-13 Number of broadband subscribers (2009-2013) 加入者数 Number of subscribers Unit: People 単位:人 9000000 % 10.00% 9.20% 8000000 9.00% 7000000 8.00% 7.00% 6000000 6.00% 5000000 4.64% 4000000 3000000 5.00% 3.89% 3.46% 4.00% 2.46% 3.00% 2000000 2.00% 1000000 1.00% 0 0.00% 2009 2009年 2010 2010年 2011 2011年 2012 2012年 2013 2013年 Source: Vietnam Internet Network Information Center 4) Development Policy for Industrial Parks and Industrial Clusters The Vietnamese government encourages the development of industrial parks by both domestic and foreign private companies, in an effort to leverage foreign investment to promote industrialization and regional development. With the success of the Doi Moi Policy, the economy has been on a growth track and there has been a sharp rise in foreign investment since the early 1990s. Along with the introduction of regulations for general industrial zones in 1994, this has led to an increase in the development of large-scale industrial parks major Japanese trading companies, amongst others. Figure1-14 Industrial Zones contributed by Japanese Companies Name of industrial zone Nomura-Haiphong Industrial Zone Inaugurated 1994 Location Hai Phong Investor Nomura Securities Group Amata City 1994 Dong Nai ITOCHU Province Corporation, indirect financing LOTECO industrial zone 1996 Dong Nai Sojitz Corporation Province Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park 1996 (VSIP I) Binh Duong Mitsubishi Province Corporation, indirect financing Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park 2006 (VSIP II) Binh Duong Mitsubishi Province Corporation, indirect financing Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park 2007 1-9 Bac Ninh Mitsubishi (VSIP-Bac Ninh) Thang Long Industrial Park 2000 Province Corporation Hanoi suburbs Sumitomo Corporation Thang Long Industrial Park II 2008 Hung Yen Sumitomo Province Corporation Source: Compiled by survey organization based on various documents There are 28 industrial parks covering a total area of 13,000 hectares in Binh Duong Province, attracting more than 750 companies from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China and various other countries. There is a particular focus on electric machinery, electronics, mechanical engineering, food manufacturing, lumber, interiors and tailoring. The area around Binh Duong New City, which is at the center of this project, will be home to the Vietnam Singapore Industrial Parks I and II (VSIP I/VSIP II) and My Phuoc Industrial Parks 1, 2 and 3. Including expansion plans at each of these sites, the area is expected to play a leading role in attracting companies and to contribute to the future development in the province. 5) Urban Development Policy in Binh Duong Province in Vietnam Binh Duong Province forms part of Vietnam’s Southern Key Economic Zone, alongside Ho Chi Minh, Dong Nai Province and Ba-Ria Vung Tau Province. It is also located within the Ho Chi Minh conurbation. Under the 2020 master plan for the Ho Chi Minh conurbation, Thu Dau Mot City in Binh Duong Province will be located inside the “urban zone surrounding the core city of Ho Chi Minh”. The aim is to develop the surrounding urban area, which will then spearhead wider economic growth. The 2020 master plan (socio-economic development) for Binh Duong Province sets out the following basic policy and goals. Figure1-15: Binh Duong Province 2020 Master Plan (Socio-economic Development) ■ Basic Policy To make the most of the province’s geographical advantages, by cooperating with individual provinces within the Southern Key Economic Zone and with foreign countries, and to aim for stable socio-economic development. To strive to protect the environment, and to improve urban infrastructure and social services in tandem with economic and industrial development. ■ Main Goals Elevate the area to a centrally controlled municipality in 2020. Complete industrialization by 2015 (achieve 62.9% secondary industry). Improve electricity and water infrastructure. Plan economic growth focused on industry and services. Enhance provision of housing. Improve education and medical care. Source: Created by the Study team based on Binh Duong Province website 1-10 6) Most Recent Developments Concerning This Project The development plan for Binh Duong Province described above emphasizes economic development through industrialization and service industry development, and with this project, we aim to provide a comfortable lifestyle equal to Japanese level by improving the communications environment in Binh Duong Province. The services under consideration by Tokyu Corporation are dependent on progress with transport infrastructure development in Binh Duong Province, including the bus service that will start carrying commuters from Thu Dau Mot City, in central Binh Duong Province, when the provincial People’s Council moves in 2014. Ho Chi Minh City Metro Line No.1 is also expected to be in operation by 2018. Becamex Tokyu meanwhile is planning to open a small-scale commercial facility in the development zone in 2014, and a large-scale commercial facility in 2017. 1-11 (3) The Situation in the Area Covered by the Study 1) Overview of Binh Duong Province Binh Duong Province is located in a key economic zone in the south of Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai Province, Ba-Ria Vung Tau Province, Binh Duong Province) and is located about 20 km to the north of Ho Chi Minh. Access to Ho Chi Minh is good, and it is possible to use both the international airport and the international harbor. Its location covers the area potential for development. The annual GDP growth rate of Binh Duong Province has been 14-15% compared to the average of 7-8% for Vietnam. To mitigate the concentration of population in Ho Chi Minh, which is the fastest-growing city in Vietnam, The project has started on constructing large-scale satellite cities with new government buildings at the core, so it is an area where further development is expected in the future. The principal industry used to be agriculture, but foreign direct investment has increased and at present, light industries became main.. Foreign investments are positively accepted. In the future, the province will develop the economy as a center of the hi-tech industries, sophisticated commerce, financing, culture and tourism. The aim is to elevate the area to a centrally controlled municipality same to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh by 2020. Figure 1-16 Map of Binh Duong new city, Binh Duong province Source :BECAMEX TOKYU Website 2) Overview of Binh Duong New City Binh Duong New City is located about 30 km to the north of the center of Ho Chi Minh. At present, Thu Dau Mot City is the economic, administrative and industrial center of Binh Duong Province. With plans to move to new government buildings in 2014 however, the economic and industrial center of the province is likely to shift from Thu Dau Mot City to Binh Duong New City. Binh Duong New City covers an area of around 1,000 hectares located in the center of Binh Duong City, which in turn covers an area of around 4,200 hectares. 1-12 3) Progress with Urban Development in Binh Duong Province The urban development in Binh Duong Province is mainly implemented by the 100% government owned BECAMEX IDC CORP. BECAMEX IDC was established in 1976 and has been in business for over 35 years developing projects focused on industrial, traffic and urban infrastructure relating to the development of Binh Duong Province. ・Urban development: The modern Binh Duong New City needs to be completed by 2020, when Binh Duong Province is aiming to be elevated to a centrally controlled municipality. Urban development is underway to combine industrial, government, academic, residential and leisure facilities, including the city’s financial center, the provincial government, universities, homes and commercial facilities. The aim is to create a city with a population of 125,000 and to generate 400,000 jobs by 2020. ・Industrial infrastructure development: BECAMEX IDC is developing and managing six industrial zones, with overall investment in all six zones totaling approximately 6.3 billion US dollars. The project has created jobs for 150,000 people. ・Transport infrastructure development: In an effort to stabilize the investment environment in Binh Duong Province and elevate it to a centrally controlled municipality by 2020, work is underway on projects such as National Highway Route 13, an arterial highway connecting the province to the domestic road network, and the My Phuoc-Tan Van Expressway, connecting Binh Duong Province to important economic zones in the south of the country. In 2012, Tokyu Corporation established Becamex Tokyu as a joint venture with BECAMEX IDC and started planning the Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City, a project with a total budget of approximately 100 billion yen and comprising about 7,500 residences, commercial facilities and business facilities on a block of land covering approximately 110 hectares in Binh Duong New City. BECAMEX IDC is not only cooperating with Tokyu Corporation, but it is also building and developing residential and commercial facilities in partnership with developers from several other countries, in an effort to create a modern city. 1-13 1-14 Chapter 2 Study Methodology (1) Study Contents Vietnam is seeing soaring overseas investment from and entries of Japanese and other foreign companies. Although a large number of industrial parks have been provided, many are mere provision of industrial land lots by local developers. On the other hand, industrial zones supplied by Japanese, Singaporean and Thai companies are comparable to urban development since they include commercial facilities, residences and other living amenities. Under these circumstances, Tokyu Corporation is working together with the government sector on new urban development in the province of Binh Duong. Although we aim to offer comfortable lifestyles at the level of developed countries, i.e., the level enjoyed in Japan, in accordance with our urban development concept, constraints on the information and communication technology (ICT) environment in fact have a negative impact on activities of Japanese companies that entered the region and on the everyday lives of employees and their families Thus far, we have made independent efforts as we seek to improve the ICT environment surrounding Binh Duong New City. At the current stage, we are studying the basic plans of the Vietnamese government, the authorities of Binh Duong Province and major telecommunications carriers in the ICT sector, as well as their respective progress. It is vital to comprehend the current actual status in consideration of the issue common to emerging countries, including Vietnam – failure to implement the plan as scheduled, Comprehension of the actual conditions gives grounds for determination of specifications of different life services that we strive to establish as soon as possible. This survey is thus intended to study the project details of advanced services and the ICT environment as part of the constraints on project details and specifications. 2-1 Figure 2-1: Examples of Advanced Services Tokyu Corporation Considers Offering バスサービス Bus Service 商業サービス Commercial Service 位置情報 Positional information 位置情報 Positional information Transaction data 取引情報 ポイント 位置情報 Positional information Loyalty points ICT基盤 ICT infrastructure Notification 通報 Telephone 電話 テレビ Television お客様宅 Customer’s residence 連絡 Notification Hurrying to the scene 急行 インター Internet ネット Guard Standby 警備員 Station 待合所 Residential Service (Security) 家中サービス(セキュリティ) Triple Play service トリプルプレイサービス ICT基盤の整備を前提として成立する先進国水準の生活サービス Life services at the level of developed countries provided based on well-developed ICT infrastructure Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation Figure 2-2: Overall Network Configuration in Bing Duong Province (information before start of the survey) <Binh Duong Province connection image> Customer site Local Carrier A, G, H C home B 今回の Subject (i) of 調査対象① the survey ISP Subject (ii) of 今回の the survey 調査対象② F ■Japan Yahoo! OCN VNTT VNPT Viettel FPT Viettel … … Survey Item A:physical/ logical diagram or route B:cable route system C:in house cabling at Customer site (Building, Home, Factory,...) E:route to each country servers F:route to ISP network from VNTT, traffic shaping and filter by ISP G:Construction Management (NW equipment, Cable installation, etc) H:Operation (formation, monitoring, etc) Source: NTT Communications 2-2 VNIX or transit ISP VNPT E ■USA YouTube Google Facebook ■Vietnam Google Zing VN Express (2) Study Method and Structure 1) Survey items This survey consists of two different surveys: on improvement of the telecommunications environment and on advanced life services. Details of each survey are as below. a) Survey on improvement of the telecommunications environment i) Understanding of Internet communication infrastructure in Binh Duong Province - Internet connection configurations and routes by telecommunications carriers - Number of lines between base stations and facilities and distance to facilities - Indoor wiring in facilities - Power supply stability ii) Measurement of Internet quality in Binh Duong Province - Internet connection speed at facilities in Binh Duong Province - Line speed in communications between different cities - Line speed in communication with neighboring countries - Line speed in communications with Japan iii) Comprehension of business plans of Vietnamese telecommunications carriers - Business plans of Vietnam Post and Telecommunications Group and other major carriers (especially for Binh Duong Province) - Plan of Bing Duong Province authorities concerning construction of telecommunications environment - Business plans of local telecommunications carriers iv) Evaluation of Internet quality in Binh Duong Province - Summary of (i) above - Quality evaluation or examination of Internet communication infrastructure based on (i) above - Quality evaluation or examination of Internet services based on (ii) above b) Survey on advanced life services i) Presumption of businesses covered by the service - Identification of problems and needs through onsite surveys ii) Business feasibility study - Study on business schemes, investments and revenues and expenses 2) Survey methods The survey methods shown below will be implemented. 2-3 Figure 2-3 Survey methods Survey on improvement of the telecommunications environment Survey on advanced life services Onsite survey and interviews (VNPT,VNTT, Viettel, Department of Information and Communication) Onsite survey, interviews and literature research (BECAMEX Tokyu) Source: Created by the Study Team 3) Survey structure The diagram below outlines the structure for the implementation of this survey. 2-4 Figure 2-4: Implementation Structure Diagram ◎Project Manager ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit General Manager And Urban Development Business Unit International Business Headquarters Kenji Murai TOKYU CORPORATION ◎Financial and Economic Analysis ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit Manager And Urban Development Business Unit International Business Headquarters Shinichi Motoyama TOKYU CORPORATION ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit Manager Katsutoshi Cho ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit Assistant Manager Nobuyoshi Katsuoka ◎Environmental and Social Analysts ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit And Urban Development Business Unit International Business Headquarters Yuta Tejima ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit Rie Hamamoto ICT Strategy Division Life Service Business Unit Tetsuya Ozawa The Japan Research Institute, Limited NTT Communications ◎Network infrastructure technologies Corporation Second Sales Division ICT Sales Senior Manager Koji Fujioka Grand Design Office, Service Infrastructure Division Director Futoshi Sakai Grand Design Office, Service Infrastructure Division Osamu Yoshida Network Facilities Service Infrastructure Yuichi Kawashima NTT Communications (Vietnam) Ltd. NTT Worldwide Telecommunications Corporation Source: Created by the Study Team 2-5 (3) Study Schedule The diagrams below show the schedule of implementation of the survey. Table 2-5: Survey schedule 2012 Activity 2013 Octover November Activities in Japan (i) Preparation of onsite suvey i (ii) Preparation of onsite suvey ii (iii) Preparation of onsite suvey iii (iv) Preparation of onsite suvey iv (v) Preparation of onsite servey v (vi) Preparation of onsite suvey vi (vii) Preparation of questionnaire sheets and survey plan (viii) Preparation of an interim report (ix) Preparation of a final report Activities onsite (i) onsite suvey i (ii) onsite suvey ii (iii) onsite suvey iii (iv) onsite suvey iv (v) onsite suvey v (vi) onsite suvey vi (onsite report) Source: Created by the Study Team 2-6 December January Frbruary Table 2-6: Onsite survey schedule Date Visit Destination Visitors Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Sep. 13 Preliminary onsite survey Binh Duong Dept. of Information and Communications Sep. 30 Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Oct. 14 Binh Duong Dept. of Information and Communications Tokyu Corp. Representative from other side Explanations of objective of the survey Director Explanations of objective of the survey President Tokyu Corp. Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Director Director of hosting service dept. Oct. 15 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (VNPT) First onsite survey Tokyu Corp. and NTT Communications Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Vice branch manager Director of hosting service dept. Oct. 16 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (Viettel) Nov. 12 Nov. 13 Nov. 18 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (VNPT) Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (Viettel) Branch manager Director Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Nov. 19 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (VNPT) Nov. 27 Becamex Tokyu Nov. 28 Bingh Duong New City and surrounding industrial parks Dec. 16 GDS Dec. 16 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (VNPT) Dec. 17 Becamex IDC Dec. 18 Becamex IDC Dec. 18 Fourth onsite survey Tokyu Corp. and The Japan Research Institute Explanations of the survey using the questionnaire sheet Courtesy visit and explanations of the objective of the survey Interviews on networks using a questionnaire Confirmation of network structure in Binh Duong New City, ISP connections, progress with installation, OP, etc. Explanations of objective of the survey Inspection tour of data center and service point Additional interview using a questionnaire Confirmation of equipment installed in data centers, configuration management, monitoring, progress with installation, etc. Explanations of objective of the survey Supplementary interviews to the first survey with a questionnaire sheet and inspection of the splitter Confirmation of optical communication services, IPTV services and progress with splitter installation Interviews on networks using a questionnaire Interviews on networks using a questionnaire Director of hosting service dept. Inspection tour of the data center and the service point for facility survey Interviews on facilities using a questionnaire Confirmation of progress with installation of data center and service point equipment IT Center Deputy Director Facility survey in an inspection tour of the data center Confirmation of progress with installation of data center equipment Tokyu Corp. and NTT Communications Third onsite survey Sixth onsite survey Director of hosting service dept. Tokyu Corp. and NTT Communications Second onsite survey Fifth onsite survey Branch manager Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Activities President Director Interviews and discussion with bus, commercial and security personnel A survey of the current state of life services in the form of an inspection Inspection tour of the data center for NTT Communications (Vietnam) Ltd. facility survey General Director Confirmation of progress with installation of data center equipment Representative director/President Tokyu Corp. Courtesy call and requests based on survey results Vice president Report on survey Chairman of the Board/President Report on survey Local telecom carrier (VNTT) President Report on survey Dec. 19 Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Director of hosting service dept. Jan. 20 Becamex IDC Jan. 20 Becamex Tokyu Jan. 21 Jan. 22 Jan. 22 Vietnam’s major telecom carrier (VNPT) Binh Duong Dept. of Information and Communications Tokyu Corp. Local telecom carrier (VNTT) Additional interview Vice president Report on survey Director/President Report on survey Branch manager Report on survey Director Survey briefing President Report on survey *Between onsite surveys, meetings for details of onsite surveys and schedule coordination will be held in Tokyo. Source: Created by the Study Team 2-7 2-8 Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project (1) Project Background and Necessity 1) Initiative for Development of Binh Duong New City Vietnam is seeing its economy growth at a rapid pace despite the growth rate dropping to 5-6%. Binh Duong Province is located close to Ho Chi Minh City and achieves one of the highest growth rates in the country, with the annual average GDP growth rate ranging 14-15%. In the province, construction of a large-scale satellite city centered on relocation to a new provincial office building was commenced in efforts to suppress population concentration in the suburbs of Ho Chi Minh City. In response to the Binh Duong New City construction project, we at Tokyu Corporation established a joint venture, Becamex Tokyu Co., Ltd., with Becamex IDC Corp., a leading developer in Binh Duong Province mainly involved in construction of industrial parks, residential districts and roads since its foundation in 1976. Through this joint venture, we are planning a project valued at approximately 100 billion yen for development of Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City with an approximate block area of 110 ha and site area of 71 ha consisting of around 7,500 residential houses, commercial facilities, business facilities and other features in Binh Duong New City, for an approximate total area of 1,000 ha. As the first part of the project, we put into Phase 1 general sales for the condominium project called Sora Gardens in April 2013. We thus embarked on very-long-term urban development in efforts to, in more than 10 years, create a new city with a daytime population of 400,000. We regard coexistence and mutual prosperity with the neighboring industrial complexes, which are one of the largest scales in Southeast Asia as important to the construction of Binh Duong New City development project, and as a key to realizing the concept of proximity between workplace and residence. The neighboring industrial complexes include the Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) and My Phuoc Industrial Park. Their approximate total area reaches 13,000 ha and already accommodates around 800 businesses, around 200 of which are Japanese. 3-1 Figure 3-1: Positioning of Binh Duong New City Binh Duong Province Binh Duong New City National Route 13 Tan Son Nhat Airport Central Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation Figure 3-2: Current Look of Binh Duong New City and its Future Look after Development After Development <開発後> Currently <現在> Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation 2) Project for Advanced Life Services in Binh Duong New City In the urban development of Binh Duong New City, we strive to enable residents to enjoy comfortable lifestyles as close as possible to the level of developed countries, namely Japan. For this purpose, we independently conducted a simplified basic survey on the information and communication technology (ICT) environment in the New City and neighboring industrial parks for about 10 months, starting August 2012. Provision of advanced life services supports our urban development and advancement of the ICT environment is essential for providing such services. For determining the details and specifications of the life services Becamex Tokyu will offer, we need to gain accurate insight as appropriate into the Vietnamese step-by-step plan to construct an ICT environment that will support operations of our services. 3-2 Our swift action is a transplanting of a Japanese city that will dramatically improve the level of life in Vietnam and specifically contribute to raising productivity of Japanese firms already in operation at neighboring industrial parks, encouraging further entries of Japanese businesses and creating opportunities to introduce IT systems and packages owned by Japanese firms in providing different life services. 3) Significance, Effect, etc. to Partner Country With an approximate area of 1,000 ha, Binh Duong New City is located inside Binh Duong Industrial-UrbanService Complex of approximately 4,196 ha. The master plan for this complex was approved via the Vietnamese government with the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 912 on September 1, 2005, and the new city is at the heart of Binh Duong Province, for which promotion to a city under direct control of the Vietnamese central government is planned for 2020. Notably, it has been determined that all administrative functions of the province, including the provincial committee of the Communist Party, people’s committee and people’s assembly, will be concentrated in the new city. In Binh Duong New City, development will take place with a focus on the politics and administration center, which will serve as the provincial authorities’ office, the Singapore-based Mapletree Group’s High-Tech Park, Eastern International University, the KinderWorld Education Group’s international school, a commercial finance center, banks, food service areas, offices and residences (in the form of condominiums, townhouses and detached houses) in addition to the Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City by Becamex Tokyu. The developer envisions the new city as eventually having 120,000 residents and 400,000 workers. Binh Duong Province has two master plans concerning information and communications: a) “Binh Duong Province master plan on development of information technology for 2010 and vision for 2020” b) “Binh Duong Province master plan on development of post and telecommunications for 2015 and vision for 2020” Date of Approval: August 13, 2008 Created by: Binh Duong Department of Information and Communications Approved by: Binh Duong Province authorities 4) Possibility of Participation of Japanese Companies a) Provision of IT systems for Life Services It is possible to introduce Japan’s superior technologies and service quality to life services that are likely to be offered, such as smart cards and security systems. b) Reinforcement of Data Centers and Provision of Cloud Services There is considerable potential for use of Japanese technologies in data centers and business application systems constructed in accordance with local specifications. 3-3 c) Introduction of a Facility Maintenance and Management System Wires on utility poles in Vietnam, as in many other emerging countries, take on a spaghetti-like form. This shows that the values of improving future efficiency and reliability by maintaining and managing facilities have not taken root. It is possible that operation systems for facility management, such as management of telecommunications equipment and optical fiber lines to be popularized by introducing them in Vietnam ahead of other countries to establish a first-mover advantage. 3-4 (2) Studies Necessary for Determining Project Details 1) Demand Forecast In the development of Binh Duong New City with an approximate total area of 1,000 ha, we are planning construction of Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City consisting of approximately 7,500 residences, commercial facilities and business facilities in a block area of around 110 ha (or site area of nearly 71 ha) as a project valued at approximately 100 billion yen. As the first part of the project, we put into Phase 1 general sales for the condominium project called Sora Gardens in April 2013. We thus embarked on long-lasting urban development in efforts to, in more than 10 years, create a new city with a daytime population of 400,000 and a resident population of 125,000. In addition to the new city project, neighboring industrial complexes include the Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) and the My Phuoc Industrial Park. Their total area reaches around 13,000 ha. Approximately 800 companies including around 200 from Japan are already in operation in these zones. Residents of these cities are chiefly comprised of foreign nationals and affluent Vietnamese. Therefore there is expectation for need to arise for enjoying advanced life services in accordance with the planned population in the years shown below. Table 3-3: Future Planned Population in Binh Duong New City Year Planned Population 2013 Approximately 800 companies in neighboring industrial complexes, including around 200 from Japan 202X Daily population of 400,000, resident population of 125,000 Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation 2) Problem Identification and Analysis Necessary for Studying and Determination of Project Details a) Life Service Businesses For the purpose of assuming service businesses which are operated as part of the project, the following presents the findings of the survey on advanced life services. The three businesses mentioned below are currently envisioned. Table 3-4: Life Service Businesses Envisioned by Tokyu Corporation Business System to be introduced Purposes Bus Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System Acquire and analyze data on uses of bus services to comprehend the progress of the modal shift and to study and formulate measures to encourage it Commerce Standalone Loyalty Point Card System Gain an accurate insight into sales of facilities operated as a developer (Offer benefits in the form of loyalty points to customers to minimize off-balance sales [payments not recorded on cash registers]) 3-5 Security Home Monitoring System for Residents Offer security services matched with local conditions (The Japanese-style unmanned security system with personnel rushing in response to alarm calls is unmatched with the present circumstances in Vietnam.) Staff Monitoring System for Business Achieve labor productivity comparable with the Japanese level in anticipation of a future rise of personnel cost Source: Created by Tokyu Corporation Before studying and determining the details of these service businesses, we identified the issues and needs as listed below by conducting onsite surveys, interviews and research of literature. Using these data as a reference, we will be studying and making decisions on project details. Table 3-5: Social and Technical Issues and Needs Concerning Life Service Businesses Social Challenges and Needs Business Bus Mainly low-income Technical Challenges and Needs earners use Introduction of smart cards for fare buses. Motorcycles are mainly used payment requires a certain level of ICT for environment, but it is underdeveloped in commuting to and from workplaces. The modal shift is an Binh Duong Province. immediate challenge. Commerce Individual stores are so hesitant to Local supermarkets and other disclose their respective sales that it is businesses have already adopted impossible to introduce a lease standalone loyalty point card systems agreement under which the rent is using smart cards. Yet there are calculated on a prorated basis from the statutory regulations under which only tenant’s sales. Commercial developers banks may issue smart cards with are therefore under business electronic money functions and serving circumstances under which it is many different purposes. For difficult to secure profitability. standalone systems, Vietnam has no de The general public in Vietnam tends facto standard since multiple standards not to trust what is invisible to them coexist in different parts of the country. and is unfamiliar with electronic money in the form of smart cards. It is therefore challenging to increase the Security number of smart card users. Dishonest acts of personnel and housekeepers are occasionally seen and improving social morals is an issue. With regard to security services, guards themselves are not so highly trusted that there is currently no need for a combination of unmanned security systems with guards dispatched in response to alarm calls. Introduction of unmanned security systems requires their connection to ICT lines for transmission of alarm calls, but it is confirmed that the necessary ICT environment is unavailable in some parts of Binh Duong Province. Source: Created by the Study Team 3-6 In addition, (3) Overview of Project Plan in this chapter refers to business plans and the amount of business investment, while Chapter 5 - Financial and Economic Viability discusses business earnings and expenses. b) ICT Environment Improvement With regard to whether an ICT environment requisite to operation of the life service businesses has been constructed or what measures to take if any such environment has yet to be provided, we studied issues on ICT environment improvement and measures for improvement as follows. i) Comprehending Configuration of Internet Communication Infrastructure in Bing Duong Province We interviewed VNTT with respect to the configuration and routes of Internet connection by telecommunications carriers to clarify the network configuration portrayed in the diagram below. The network infrastructure at the VNTT level and upper levels can be rated as sound on the whole. 3-7 Figure 3-6: Diagram of Network Configuration in Binh Duong New City <Binh Doung New City> <Customer Site> ※Q11,12 <Service Point> ※Q11,12 ※Q11,12 ※Q11,12 ONU Splitter 1:16 OLT Q5 NW redundancy Q8 Bandwidth Q9 Distance between each portion Splitter 1:4 Q6 Number of Split Circuit (per circuit) 16 or 32 or 64 ※Q11,12 (ECI) Hi-Focus O-4F2P <VNTT DC> Core Equip ment OLT 0.5G Viettel Inter national internet 200M Hutchison 1G 1G VNPT Q7 Number of OLT :1 Viettel Domestic Number of service point :1 1G internet ※Q11,12 ※Q11,12 VNIX (Junipor) Ex8208,Ex4200 (ECI)Hi-Focus F152-HB Hearing items Single 1+1 N+1 Single 1+1 N+1 Single 1+1 N+1 10Gb (hearing) 10Gb (hearing) 20Gb (hearing) →1Gb (Site survey) →1Gb (Site survey) ONU-Splitter Q10 0.5G VNPT →10Gb (Site survey) OLT-Core 20km 5km Q1: Is this a correct NW diagram about Binh Doung New City Q2,3,4:Do you have NW diagram (per circuit) and design policy Q5: NW redundancy Q6: Number of Split Circuit (per circuit) Q7: Number of OLT Number of service point Q8: Bandwidth Q9: Distance between each portion Q10: Is there demarcation point? Q11: Equipment Spec (maker and model number) Q12: Equipment If type (1000Base or 100 Base) Q13-15: Customer circuit info (number of circuit, circuit service type ) Source: Created by the Study Team Figure 3-7: Diagram of VSIP1 and My Phuoc Network Configuration Source: Created by the Study Team 3-8 After interviewing VNPT and Viettel, we identified the network configuration as portrayed below. The results found that each company has a redundant configuration in its upper- and lower-level networks and high-capacity bandwidth. We learned that their networks were highly reliable. Figure 3-8: Schematic of VNPT’s Network (with Details in Binh Duong Province) Source: Created by the Study Team Figure 3-9: Schematic of Viettel’s Network (with Details in Binh Duong Province) Source: Created by the Study Team 3-9 Through interviews we learned the number of lines between base stations and locations and the distances between them as follows. Table 3-10: Numbers of Branches and Users’ Lines of Individual Carriers VNTT Number of branches by VNPT Viettel 16 or 32 or 64 - - 391 Lines 71,162 users, 1,127 users, 109,588 lines 2,080 lines splitters Numbers of active users and their lines 65 in Bing Duong New City 187 in My Phuoc 139 in VSIP Source: Created by the Study Team We conducted an onsite study on indoor wiring at VNTT locations and found that cables were installed at a relatively high level of quality in the data center, as shown in the chart below. On the other hand, we observed that splitters were placed in streets outside the data center and that their internal construction quality was poorer than in the data center. Specifically, splitters are normally installed inside customers’ buildings. However, actual onsite surveys discovered that splitters were temporarily placed inside boxes in streets and were not protected by guardrails or anything else, and car collisions or other accidents could affect the lines. In addition, installation work was poorer in quality than in the VNTT data center, given that the name strips were handwritten and key information for identification of locations (i.e., To/From information) was not provided. Table 3-11: VNTT Work Status (Data Center) No. Check Item 1 Rack Number Sticker 2 Rack Unit Sticker Service Point (VSIP2) Yes VNTT Data Centers Yes Yes Yes Status - A sticker is attached to the rack. - Racks with unit numbers were used in the scope of the confirmation. 3 Device Number No Unknown Sticker - Data centers: Devices were not checked since visual inspection through the windows was conducted. - Service Point: No sticker was applied because there was only one identical unit on a rack. 4 Cable Tag Yes Yes - The Tepra was used to provide cable tags at both ends of each cable. - The To/From information was provided. - Apart from the tags, the port number was added. 5 Device Installation Yes Yes 3-10 - No displacement of the device in the unit was detected. 6 Cable Management Yes Yes - Cables were reinforced with Velcro fasteners and binders. - Cables were installed from both ends. - Cables were laid at appropriate lengths and their excess lengths were processed. - Cable rails were provided on racks. Source: Created by the Study Team Table 3-12: VNTT Work Status (Splitters) No. 1 Check Item Splitters (Binh Duong New City) Rack Number Sticker Unknown Status - No information was stated since there was only one splitter box. 2 Rack Unit Sticker Unknown - Not applicable since it was a splitter box and not a rack 3 Device Number Unknown - No sticker was attached since there was only one Sticker 4 Cable Tag splitter box. No - Cable tags were handwritten. - They had To/From information. 5 Device Installation Unknown - No compliance was required because installation of a splitter alone was involved. 6 Cable Management Yes - Cables were reinforced with Velcro fasteners and binders. - Cables were laid at appropriate lengths and their excess lengths were processed. Source: Created by the Study Team 3-11 Figure 3-13: Splitter Installation Status (Binh Duong New City) Open ・ケーブルタグ手書き -Handwritten cable 記載なし - No ・From,To To/From information given tags Source: Photographed by the Study Team In association with power supply stability, VNTT can be rated as having virtually no problems with the hardware configuration in the data center facility at the present, but there is considered room for future improvement in operation and maintenance, particularly given that its management of external service points was poorer since they were farther from the data center. On the other hand, a relatively high level of facility operation was observed at VNPT Binh Duong. Its facility personnel showed a high level of understanding in responding to questions in the survey and gave clear replies while showing monitor screens. ii) Internet Quality Measurement in Binh Duong Province (VNTT Users) The diagram below portrays the results of network line speed tests in domestic connections conducted at several locations in Binh Duong Province. The line speed measured varied considerably depending on the place. The tests showed poor results, as an average range of line speed was measured at two (or 15%) of the 13 locations. At three, or 23%, of all the locations where the tests were conducted the speed was below 10 Mbps, to suggest some problem with the construction quality, etc. The tests revealed poor line quality in the last mile sections in Binh Duong Province. 3-12 Figure 3-14: Results of Network Line Speed Tests in Binh Duong Province (Domestic Connections) a to m refer to the locations where tests were conducted. The upper red line represents an average line speed of 50 Mbps in domestic connections in the city while the lower one is the speed of 10 Mbps in domestic connections, which suggests some problem with construction quality, etc. The numbers and percentages of corresponding locations where tests took place are indicated on the right side of the diagram. Source: Created by the Study Team Similarly, the diagram below illustrates the results of network line speed tests in international connections. As in domestic connections, the speed varied significantly depending on the location. In the connections to Japan and Singapore, an average range of line speed was observed at three (23%) of the 13 locations. The results were poor, as in the line speed tests in domestic connections. A line speed below 2 Mbps, which suggests poor construction quality, was marked at three locations (23%) in connections to Singapore and at six locations (47%) in connection to Japan. This reflects a particularly severe problem with line quality in connection to Japan. Figure 3-15: Results of Network Line Speed Tests in Binh Duong Province (International Connections) a to m refer to the locations where tests were conducted. The upper red line represents a common line speed of 10 Mbps in international connections in the city while the lower one is the speed of 2 Mbps in international connections, which suggests some problem with construction quality, etc. The numbers and percentages of corresponding locations where tests took place are indicated on the right side of the diagram. Source: Created by the Study Team iii) Learning About Business Plans of Vietnamese Telecommunications Carriers By means of interviews with Vietnam’s major telecommunications carriers, VNPT and Viettel, we received replies shown below with regard to their future investment plans in Binh Duong Province. The interviews revealed the actual state in which they make new capital investment in line with an increase in customers rather than in accordance with their business plans. We thus learned the reason behind their failure to provide adequate line quality with respect to the plans’ progress. 3-13 Table 3-16: Major Carriers’ Future Investment Plans in Binh Duong Province VNPT Branch expansion plan Viettel A plan for relocation to a By 2015, 52 additional neighboring building is branches will be installed. underway for network expansion. ‐ Network line expansion plan The plan is to be finalized with the network diagram. MAN-E network expansion plan ‐ ‐ Business plan concerning numbers of ‐ 720 ADSL users by 2015 and customers and lines expansion of FTTH planned Source: Created by the Study Team based on interviews Regarding the investment plans of the regional telecommunications operator, we interviewed VNTT and obtained the following results. Table 3-17: VNTT’s Future Investment Plan in Binh Duong Province VNTT’s Reply Survey Item Future plan on expanding bandwidth of Negotiations are in progress concerning contracts on bandwidth connection between core network and expansion with upper-level carriers. upper-level carriers Plan for increasing service points Three existing service points - New City (VSIP2) - VSIP1 - My Phuoc According to the future plan, one service point will be added at Becamex Sora Gardens, where there is currently one level 2 splitter. Source: Created by the Study Team Figure 3-18: Scenes of Interviews with Vietnamese Institutions With Binh Duong Department of Information and Communications on October 14, 2013 With VNPT Binh Duong on November 13, 2013 Source: Photographed by the Study Team 3-14 With Viettel Binh Duong on November 13, 2013 iv) Internet Quality Assessment in Binh Duong Province In the light of the Internet communication infrastructure configuration surveyed in item a and the results of Internet service quality measurements in item b, the following conclusion can be drawn from the ICT environment improvement survey findings. This survey targeted VNTT, VNPT operating an upper-level network and Viettel. Their facilities had a high level of reliability, given that they were in redundant configuration and had high-capacity bandwidth. Regarding indoor wiring in the facilities, the cabling quality in the data center was rated relatively high. In contrast, the splitter installation quality was confirmed as poorer than the indoor construction quality since splitters were set up in the street outside the data center. Regarding power supply stability, VNTT is considered to have barely any problems with the equipment configuration in the data center facility at the present, but there was room for future improvement in operation and maintenance. VNPT Binh Duong, however, is rated as having a relatively high technical level. 3) Consideration of Technical Approaches Introduction of smart card systems to the three businesses mentioned above are not only subject to technical constraints derived from the present ICT environment in Binh Duong Province but also under the circumstances under which the smart card standards for Ho Chi Minh City Metro Line 1 have yet to be determined. However, the FeliCa standard developed by Sony is under consideration. It would be desirable to consider using the FeliCa technology in the future. As alternative technologies to FeliCa, there exist Type A, which is widely used mainly in Europe, and Type B, which is popular in the United States. However, FeliCa has superior response speed, storage capacity and security features and is widely used not only in Japan but also in Hong Kong, Singapore and other parts of Asia. 3-15 (3) Overview of Project Plan 1) Basic Policy on Determination of Project Details a) Advanced Life Service Project in Binh Duong New City Tokyu Corporation’s urban development in Binh Duong New City aims to enable its residents to enjoy a comfortable living standard as close to that in developed countries, namely Japan, as possible. To determine the details and specifications of life services provided by Becamex Tokyu, it is necessary to gain accurate insight as appropriate into the plan on the Vietnam side for phased construction of the ICT environment that will support operation of the services. b) Life Service Businesses Currently Envisioned Becamex Tokyu is considering launching bus services that link with the existing urban district in 2014 in efforts to increase convenience of commuters and visitors to New City. In addition to the existing housing business, it will operate a retail business in order to serve as a one-stop provider of advanced life service businesses. The following are life service businesses it is considering operating. Standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses Standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field In-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business 2) Concept Design and Use of Facilities that Reflect it a) Envisioned Business Expansion Tokyu Corporation envisions starting with currently feasible services in each of the three businesses and subsequently expanding into a business of integrated electronic money smart cards. 3-16 Figure 3-19: Envisioned Expansion of Life Service Business Source: Created by the Study Team b) Business Concept Chart (Envisioned Services) The following describes the concepts of the three businesses envisioned in this survey. i) Advanced Life Service Business Based on and Linked with Electronic Money Smart Cards In the first stage, the smart card commuter pass service and loyalty point card program will each be operated on a standalone basis in the bus business and in commerce business, respectively, in Binh Duong New City. At this stage, there are some local supermarkets issuing their own loyalty point cards in Ho Chi Minh City, but there is no system in which such cards are distributed on a large scale. Figure 3-20: Concept of Advanced Life Service Business at First Stage Binh Duong New City ~2017 IC Commuter Pass Ho CniMing City Point card Source: Created by the Study Team 3-17 ii) Advanced Life Service Business Envisioned at Present Expectations are that smart card tickets based on FeliCa technology will be introduced at the time of inauguration of Ho Chi Minh City Metro Line 1. This is the technology on which Japan’s PASMO and Suica smart cards are based and means that a foundation will be created for introduction of similar electronic money. Becamex Tokyu will advertise the convenience and comfort of contactless culture with smart cards through standalone operations at the first stage and aims to introduce electronic money when Ho Chi Minh City Metro Line 1 comes into service. Figure 3-21: Concept of Advanced Life Service Business at Second Stage Binh Duong New City ~2017 IC Commuter Pass Ho CniMing City Point card Integrate 2018~ Integrated IC Card Integrated IC Card Commuter Pass/Point card + Electric money Mutual use Commuter Pass/Point card + Electric money Source: Created by the Study Team c) Business Scheme Diagram As a joint venture set up by Tokyu Corporation and Becamex IDC, Becamex Tokyu will serve as an operator of the businesses. Figure 3-22: Diagram of Business Operation Scheme in Binh Duong New City BECAMEX IDC Tokyu Coporation Joint Company BECAMEX TOKYU Commercial buildings Point card Office buildings Executing body Residential Security Bus service Other urban facilities, infrastructure IC Pass Binh Duong New City Source: Created by the Study Team 3-18 3) Details of Proposed Project As mentioned earlier, this project comprises three different businesses. The following gives detailed descriptions of the advanced life service businesses currently envisioned. a) Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System for Buses Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 16,662 million (including VND 7,951 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table 3-23: Overview of Standalone Smart Card Commuter Pass System Operations for Buses Item No. of buses Launch to Year 1 Year 2 Years 3-4 Years 5-6 Years 7-10 Approx. 10 Approx. 15 Approx. 20 Approx. 30 Approx. 35 No. of cards issued Approx. 3,500 Approx. Approx. Approx. Approx. 6,000 9,000 11,000 15,000 No. of drivers & crew members Equipment, etc. Approx. 50 Approx. 70 Approx. Approx. Approx. 170 100 140 Terminals: Bus-mounted terminals (in same quantity as number of buses), renewal stations, terminals for inspectors, etc. Hardware: Issuing stations, bus depots, servers, etc. Source: Created by the Study Team b) Standalone Loyalty Point Card System in the Commercial Field Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 8,297 million (including VND 6,496 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table 3-24: Overview of Standalone Loyalty Point Card System Operations in the Commercial Field Item No. of stores No. of cards issued From May 2014 2 Approx. 4,500 m Approx. 15 Approx. 10,000 From December 2015 Approx. 3,000 m2 Approx. 15 Approx. 10,000 2 Approx. 10 Approx. 7,000 From January 2016 Total store floor area Approx. 3,500 m 2 From September 2017 Approx. 30,000 m Approx. 5 Approx. 2,000 From March 2020 Approx. 23,000 m2 Approx. 10 Approx. 6,000 2 Approx. 55 Approx. 35,000 Total Approx. 64,000 m Source: Created by the Study Team 3-19 c) In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in the Security Business Business Period: 10 years Total Operating Expenses: VND 198,352 million (including VND 20,240 million for initial investment) Business Overview: As shown in the table below Table 3-25: Overview of Operations of In-Home Monitoring System for Residents and Employee Monitoring System for Business Owners in Security Business Year No. of houses (cumulative total) No. of security system subscriptions 2014 Approx. 1,000 Approx. 300 2015 Approx. 2,000 Approx. 600 2023 Approx. 52,000 Approx. 16,000 Source: Created by the Study Team 4) Problems with Adoption of Technologies and Systems Proposed, and Respective Solutions a) Life Service Businesses Some of the technologies used in this project are in practical application on a commercial basis as life services we already operate in Japan. The following specifies problems with implementation in Binh Duong New City. i) Conflict and Security Problems As mentioned above, our business is already in operation in Binh Duong Province since we are aware that there are no problems with the business environment in the province. ii) Other Problems Regarding the Project None iii) Problems with Competitive Projects None iv) Site Acquisition Problem As mentioned above, we have already acquired a 110-ha site for business. b) ICT Environment Improvement A survey on construction of an ICT environment requisite to life service businesses has recognized the three following issues to be addressed for implementation of advanced life service businesses. ○ Line Speed in International Connections Our international connection speed tests conducted at several locations revealed that the connections to Japan, etc. were particularly slow and poor in quality. For taking some measures to redress this result, it is necessary to 3-20 make requests to and coordination with the Binh Duong Department of Information and Communications, the head offices of VNPT and Viettel, and other relevant institutions. It is generally said that Vietnam has a problem with international Internet connection bandwidth. If a fundamental solution is sought, it is necessary to envision a large-scale project not confined to within Binh Duong Province. In addition, at the time of submitting a request for improvement, it will be necessary to present more detailed survey results. It is thought that we will have to conduct a detailed study on the future direction through continued surveys. ○Quality of Last Mile Lines We also examined domestic connections and found them of poor quality with low connection speeds. This survey did not identify the cause of the results since it was not intended to address the situation as an individual issue. The points are whether the system for troubleshooting in the event of a failure has been prepared in technical and service terms and whether the service is properly operated, such as in quality improvement activities needed following trouble. To improve these situations, it is advisable to strive to continually improve quality through guidance and consulting by experienced experts. Costs of broadly around 200 million JPY are estimated for the current survey, construction for improvement and other expenses, if a project on quality improvement is conducted in the last mile lines sections targeting around 200 Japanese businesses involved in industrial complexes in Binh Duong Province. ○VNTT Operations VNTT has room for improvement in service operations. Currently serving a small number of customers and with limited years of operation, it is presumed to have yet to see any major problem, but we think that Tokyu Corporation, as a service operator, must implement quality control in anticipation of future expansion. To address this problem, we will recommend that it seek advice and consulting based on experience and knowledge in worldwide-level services. At the least, it is considered significant to undergo minimal auditing performed by outside parties on a regular basis to have the motivation to improve services. These findings may be illustrated as follows. 3-21 Figure 3-26: Schematic of ICT Environment Improvement Survey Results Source: Created by the Study Team The discovery of these facts and issues was a result of proactive information disclosure from the Vietnam side in the survey with the help of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. 3-22 Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts (1) Current Situation Analysis of Environmental and Social Aspects This project is intended to achieve advanced life services (buses, commerce and security) in Binh Duong New City, which is being developed in Binh Duong Province, Vietnam. First, in terms of the development project of Binh Duong New City itself, the development business entity, Becamex IDC, received environmental impact assessment (EIA) approval from Binh Duong People's Committee on 14 February 2011 in accordance with the provisions of environmental and social consideration-related laws and regulations of Vietnam as described later (Table 4-1). The new government building of Binh Duong Province, commercial facilities, living accommodations and other features in the new city are being constructed based on the following comprehensive approval. Table 4-1: EIA in Binh Duong New City Item Content Report title Approval for Environmental Impact Assessment Report of the Modern Urban Zone Infrastructure Investment and Construction Project; project area: 709,6068 ha at Phu My ward, Dinh Hoa ward, Phú Tan Ward, Thu Dau Mot Town, Binh Duong Province of Becamex IDC CORP. Date of publication 14 February 2011 Issuing organization Becamex IDC Approval authority Binh Duong People's Committee Source: Created by the Study Team The business scope of this project is as follows: (1) introduction of a standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses, (2) introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and (3) introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. Their impact on the environment and society are shown in Table 4-2. Table 4-2: Impact on the environment and social aspects of advanced life services (expectations) Category Buses Positive impact Environmental improvement due to Negative impact None expected modal shift from motorcycles to buses Commerce None expected None expected Security None expected None expected Source: Created by the Study Team As mentioned previously, the necessary ICT environment for the above life services is not likely to involve any improvements to the communication environment that would require environmental or social factors to be taken into consideration. 4-1 (2) Environmental Improvement Effect Associated with Implementation of the Project Introduction of a standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses, one of this project’s objectives, is intended to be utilized to acquire and analyze passengers’ historical data of using the bus services and to understand the progress of the modal shift from motorcycles, which are the most common form of transportation for citizens in Vietnam, to buses, as well as to consider and plan measures to promote a further modal shift. Therefore, the introduction of the system is positioned as one of the means of modal shift promotion in Vietnam. The number of motorcycles owned by citizens in Vietnam is rapidly increasing with the increase in national income due to economic growth, and the resulting worsening of environmental pollution has become a serious issue. It is expected that the modal shift will help improve this issue. (3) Impact on Environmental and Social Aspects Associated with Implementation of the Project Under the current situation described above, the development business entity, Becamex IDC, has received EIA approval for the Binh Duong New City development project from Binh Duong People's Committee. No negative impact on environmental and social aspects is expected regarding the implementation of advanced life services, the business objective of this project. (4) Overview of Environmental and Social Consideration-related Laws and Regulations of the Partner Country and Required Measures to Comply with Them The environmental and social consideration-related laws and regulations that pertain to the development of the new city are described herein. The relevant laws of Vietnam are based on the new Environmental Protection Law, which came into effect in July 2006. This law also includes the EIA. New construction projects, including those in the city districts, centralized residential districts and industrial complexes, are defined as the businesses subject to the EIA in Article 18, Section 1 of the Law (Table 4-3). 4-2 Table 4-3: EIA-related laws and regulations of Vietnam Overview Covered Important national projects business Businesses that use part of the land of nature reserves, national parks, historical and cultural ruins, natural heritage or registered scenic areas, or businesses that can negatively affect them Businesses that are at risk for adversely affecting water resources, watersheds, coastal areas and ecosystem protection districts Infrastructure construction projects in economic zones, industrial complexes, high-tech complexes, export processing zones and cottage industry villages New construction projects in city districts and centralized residential districts Businesses that develop or use large-scale groundwater or natural resources Other businesses with significant adverse impact on the environment (Environmental Protection Law, Article 18, Section 1) Timing At the same time that the business feasibility study report is submitted (Environmental Protection Law, Article 19, Section 2) Investment, construction and development permits are approved and issued only after approval of the environmental impact assessment report (Environmental Protection Law, Article 22, Section 4) Contents 1. Detailed description of the business 2. Evaluation of the environmental state, environmental susceptibility and environmental capacity 3. Environmental impact, evaluation of affected environmental components and socioeconomic elements and risk of accident 4. Mitigation measures and prevention and corrective measures of environmental accidents 5. Commitment to environmental protection measures in the construction and operation process of the business 6. Environmental management and audit plan 7. Budget for environmental protection 8. Pros and cons by a commune or representatives of a resident community of the project area 9. Source of numerical and other data evaluated (Environmental Protection Law, Article 20) Review and approval 1. Businesses that the parliament, government or prime minister decided or provide approval for, and businesses across multiple industrial fields or provincial agencies 2. Businesses other than those in 1 over which the central government or other ministries have approval authority →Including the project approval authority, environment specialized agencies and experts in the provincial agency of the project area 3. Businesses over which peoples’ committee at the provincial level has the approval authority →Including the provincial peoples’ committee and environment specialized agencies and 4-3 experts at the provincial level (Environmental Protection Law, Article 21, Sections 1 to 3) Organization The organization for approval and organization responsible for establishing a review board for approval according to the three classifications mentioned in the column of review and approval and Approval must be reviewed and decided within 15 working days from the date of receipt. organization 1. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment responsible for 2. Central government and other ministries establishing the 3. Each provincial peoples’ committee (Environmental Protection Law, Article 21, Section 7) review board Review authority (Environmental Protection Law, Article 22, Sections 1 and 3) 1. Businesses over which the prime minister, government or parliament has the approval and decision-making authority, and businesses across multiple industrial fields or provincial agencies: Within 45 days of the date of receipt of the documents 2. Others: Within 30 working days of the date of receipt of the documents (Ordinance on the Enforcement of the Environmental Protection Act, Decree No. 80/2006/ND-CP Article 12) Source: Created by the Study Team in reference to JICA report (5) Matters to Be Implemented by the Country (Project Developer and Other Relevant Organizations) to Realize the Project The project developer must prepare the EIA report, apply it and receive an approval in accordance with the procedure flow shown in Figure 4-4 below. As mentioned above, Becamex IDC has already completed the approval process on the EIA regarding this project, so no additional procedures are expected to be required. 4-4 Figure 4-4: Procedure flow on EIA report of Vietnam Source: Created by the Study Team in reference to JICA report 4-5 4-6 Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation (1) Estimates of Total Project Costs Based on the conditions described in the previous chapters, the financial and economic viability are examined herein. The projects to be evaluated are as follows: 1) Introduction of a standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses, 2) Introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and 3) Introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. 1) Introduction of standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses Once the equipment needed to issue and read smartcard commuter passes has been procured in Japan, it will be shipped to Vietnam and installed as part of the relevant system. Table 5-1 outlines terms for the integration of individual project costs. Integrated costs are then outlined in Table 5-2. Table 5-1: Prerequisites for Integration of the Project cost Equipment Unit cost: Quoted by Japanese card company Volume: Based on Tokyu Corporation’s bus business plan procurement costs Smartcard Unit cost: Quoted by Japanese card company procurement costs Volume: Based on Tokyu Corporation’s bus business plan Induction training Quoted by Japanese card company costs Shipping costs Estimated by study team Installation costs Estimated by study team Maintenance costs Estimated by study team Source: Created by the Study Team Table 5-2: Result of Integration of Project Cost 2013 L Equipment IC Card Educational Expenses T ransportation Installation O&M T otal T otal(F) 2014 0 0 F 35.76 0.88 0 0 60.72 0 60.72 L 2015 F L 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 F 3.6 1.46 2.25 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 38.99 39.29 0 0 80.77 80.77 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.7 0 0 87.22 87.22 L 2017 0 0 F 5.28 2.14 0 0 0 0 0.3 5.36 5.79 0 0 94.66 94.66 L 2018 F L 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 F 6.96 2.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 7.72 8.19 0 0 102 102 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.8 0 0 109.4 109.4 L 2020 F L 2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 F 8.64 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 10.08 10.62 0 0 116.8 116.8 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.88 0 0 124.6 124.6 L 2022 F L 2023 F L F T otal Cost L F 0 60.24 0 10.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.25 0 0 0.3 12.44 13.06 0 0 133.1 133.1 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.96 0 0 142 142 0 0 0.3 0.3 1 0 0 151.6 151.6 0 0 0.3 0.3 1.05 0 60.72 1142 1203 0.1 0 3 76.39 82.33 (Units: L: Million VND; F: Million JPY (JPY = 202.4 VND)) Source: Created by the Study Team 5-1 2) Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field Once the equipment needed to read loyalty point cards has been procured in Japan, it will be shipped to Vietnam and installed as part of the relevant system. Table 5-3 outlines terms for the integration of individual project costs. Integrated costs are then outlined in Table 5-4. Table 5-3: Prerequisites for Integration of Project Cost Equipment Unit cost: Quoted by Japanese card company Volume: Based on Tokyu Corporation’s commercial facility procurement costs business plan Smartcard Unit cost: Quoted by Japanese card company Volume: Based on Tokyu Corporation’s commercial facility procurement costs Shipping costs business plan Estimated by study team Installation costs Estimated by study team Maintenance costs Estimated by study team Source: Created by the Study Team Table 5-4: Result of Integration of Project Cost 2013 L Equipment IC Card T ransportation Installation O&M T otal T otal(F) 0 0 0 60.72 0 60.72 2014 F 8.5 0 0.1 0 0 8.6 8.9 L 0 0 0 0 80.77 80.77 2015 F 4.2 2.5 0 0 0.3 7 7.4 L 0 0 0 0 87.22 87.22 2016 F 4.2 2.5 0 0 0.3 7 7.43 L 0 0 0 0 94.66 94.66 2017 F L 3 1.79 0 0 0.3 5.09 5.56 0 0 0 0 102 102 2018 F 0.9 0.54 0 0 0.3 1.74 2.24 2019 L F 0 0 0 0 109.4 109.4 2020 L 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.84 F 0 0 0 0 116.8 116.8 L 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.88 0 0 0 0 124.6 124.6 2021 F 2.4 1.43 0 0 0.3 4.13 4.75 L 0 0 0 0 133.1 133.1 2022 F L 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.96 0 0 0 0 142 142 2023 F L 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 1 F 0 0 0 0 151.6 151.6 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 1.05 T otal Cost L F 0 23.2 0 8.76 0 0.1 60.72 0 1142 3 1203 35.06 41 (Units: L: Million VND; F: Million JPY (JPY = 202.4 VND)) Source: Created by the Study Team 3) Introduction of in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business Once the equipment has been procured in Japan, it will be shipped to Vietnam and installed as part of the relevant system. Table 5-5 outlines terms for the integration of individual project costs. Integrated costs are then outlined in Table 5-6. Table 5-5 Integration terms for project costs Quoted by Japanese security company Equipment procurement costs Maintenance costs Quoted by Japanese security company Source: Created by the Study Team Table 5-6: Result of Integration of Project Cost 2013 L Equipment O&M T otal T otal(F) 0 0 0 2014 F 100 0 100 100 L 2015 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2016 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2017 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2018 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2019 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2020 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2021 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2022 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 2023 F 0 0 0 L 0 78 78 78 F 0 0 0 0 78 78 78 T otal Cost L F 0 100 0 780 0 880 880 (Units: L: Million VND; F: Million JPY (JPY = 202.4 VND)) Source: Created by the Study Team 5-2 (2) Summary of Results of the Preliminary Financial and Economic Analysis 1) Project implementation system The following projects are supposed to be implemented and funding organized by Becamex Tokyu, as the developer in Binh Duong New City: (a) introduction of a standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses, (b) introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and (c) introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. 2) Summary of financial analysis results a) Introduction of standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses Prerequisites for analysis The benefits to the operator from the introduction of a standalone smartcard system will be analyzed in terms of the reduction in staff labor costs. In Vietnam, two staff generally operate a bus service: a driver and a fare collector. With the introduction of a smartcard commuter pass system it is expected that a fare collector will not be required. The reduction of the labor cost for one employee is considered as a company benefit. Table 5-7: Prerequisites for financial analysis Project period Project cost Staff labor cost (Reduction) 10 years See the integration of the project cost shown in (1) above Unit cost: Wages calculated per person, based on the statutory minimum wage for 2012 multiplied by the wage growth rate for every fiscal year Volume: Number of ticket collectors required each year, based on Tokyu Corporation’s bus business plan Wage growth rate Based on IMF inflation rate (projected) Based on 2018 figures from 2018 onwards (no projections published as yet) Depreciation period Working capital Liquidation/residual value Corporation tax Discount rate 5 years (determined arbitrarily within statutory life span) There will be no change in working capital There will be no liquidation/residual value at the end of the project period Not applicable (no revenue from this project on its own) 9.00%, Vietnamese 10-year government bond yields, is used (ADB public data / the rate of 18 Dec, 2013). Source: Created by the Study Team 5-3 Summary of analysis results Table 5-8 Results of financial analysis Cash flow See Table 5-9 FIRR 14.51% (financial internal rate of return) NPV (net present value) 3.228 billion VND (≒15.9 million JPY) Source: Created by the Study Team 5-4 Table 5-9 Cash flow in relation to the introduction of a standalone smartcard commuter pass system on bus services Effect (A) System costs Training costs System operating costs (labor costs) System shipping costs System installation costs System maintenance costs Card costs (FelicaLiteS) 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year 7th year 8th year 9th year 10th year 2014 Unit Start date 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Thousand VND - 797,784 1,225,884 1,906,092 2,053,644 2,867,364 3,061,116 4,025,940 4,297,260 4,586,940 4,897,020 - 797,784 1,225,884 1,906,092 2,053,644 2,867,364 3,061,116 4,025,940 4,297,260 4,586,940 4,897,020 7,951,284 141,492 1,171,743 1,656,959 162,708 2,149,460 177,480 2,642,500 193,776 202,752 212,340 7,237,824 455,400 0 0 80,772 0 0 60,720 0 728,640 0 87,216 0 0 60,720 295,167 1,068,672 0 94,656 0 0 60,720 432,911 0 0 101,988 0 0 60,720 0 1,408,704 0 109,380 0 0 60,720 570,656 0 0 116,760 0 0 60,720 0 1,748,736 0 124,644 0 0 60,720 708,400 0 0 133,056 0 0 60,720 0 0 0 142,032 0 0 60,720 0 0 0 151,620 0 0 60,720 0 Reduction in labor costs (conductors) Cost price (B) 1st year Thousand VND 〃 〃 〃 〃 〃 - Depreciation costs (C) 〃 - 0 1,447,565 1,593,293 1,807,027 1,807,027 2,088,768 641,203 845,222 631,488 631,488 Gross profit (D) *D=A-(B+C) 〃 - 656,292 (1,393,423) (1,344,160) 83,909 (1,089,123) 794,868 742,237 3,258,262 3,752,700 4,053,192 - 0 1,447,565 1,593,293 1,807,027 1,807,027 2,088,768 641,203 845,222 631,488 631,488 〃 0 656,292 54,141 249,133 1,890,936 717,904 2,883,636 1,383,440 4,103,484 4,384,188 4,684,680 〃 (7,951,284) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 〃 (7,951,284) 656,292 54,141 249,133 1,890,936 717,904 2,883,636 1,383,440 4,103,484 4,384,188 4,684,680 Corporation tax Working capital 5-5 Depreciation adjustment costs (E) Operating cash flow (F) * F=D+E Investment cash flow (G) Free cash flow (H) * H=F+G 20,240 60,720 177,100 〃 Thousand VND Thousand VND Source: Created by the Study Team b) Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field Prerequisites for analysis The benefits to the operator from the introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system will be analyzed in terms of the increase in rental income due to increased sales from businesses using the commercial facilities. Introducing a loyalty point card system will enable the operator to accurately monitor sales from tenanted stores and collect rent fairly in line with sales. Consumer purchase histories collected by the operator can also be used by tenanted stores for marketing activities. This will enable them to increase their individual sales, which in turn can be expected to increase rental income for the operator. Table 5-10: Prerequisites for financial analysis Project period 10 years Project cost See the integration of the project cost shown in (1) above Increase in rental income Unit cost: 10% of rental income per square meter, based on Tokyu Corporation’s business plan Volume: Area of commercial facility (square meters), based on Tokyu Corporation’s business plan 5 years (determined arbitrarily within statutory life span) Depreciation period Working capital There will be no change in working capital Liquidation/residual There will be no liquidation/residual value at the end of value the project period Corporate Tax Based on the tax regulation (22% before up to 31 Dec, 2015 and 20 % after 1 Jan, 2016) *See JETRO website Discount rate 9.00%, Vietnamese 10-year government bond yields, is used (ADB public data / the rate of 18 Dec, 2013). Source: Created by the Study Team Summary of analysis results Table 5-11 Results of financial analysis Cash flow See Table 5-12 FIRR 13.60% (financial internal rate of return) NPV (net present value) 1.350 billion VND (≒ 6.7 million JPY) Source: Created by the Study Team 5-6 Table 5-12 Cash flow in relation to the introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial sector Sales (A) System costs System operating costs (labor costs) System shipping costs System installation costs System maintenance costs Card costs (FelicaLiteS) 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year 7th year 8th year 9th year 10th year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 491,273 1,055,711 1,842,290 1,833,701 2,696,517 2,869,080 2,869,080 2,869,080 491,273 1,055,711 1,842,290 1,833,701 2,696,517 2,869,080 2,869,080 2,869,080 1,504,016 1,124,005 453,297 170,100 177,480 960,267 193,776 202,752 212,340 850,080 87,216 0 0 60,720 506,000 607,200 94,656 0 0 60,720 361,429 182,160 101,988 0 0 60,720 108,429 0 109,380 0 0 60,720 0 0 116,760 0 0 60,720 0 485,760 124,644 0 0 60,720 289,143 0 133,056 0 0 60,720 0 0 142,032 0 0 60,720 0 0 151,620 0 0 60,720 0 Start date Thousand VND - 113,984 250,698 - 113,984 250,698 1,801,360 1,497,572 1,720,400 850,080 80,772 0 0 60,720 506,000 Increase in rent Cost of sales (B) 1st year Unit Thousand VND 〃 〃 〃 〃 20,240 60,720 - Depreciation costs (C) 〃 - 230,736 400,752 522,192 558,624 558,624 327,888 255,024 133,584 97,152 97,152 Gross profit (D) *D=A-(B+C) 〃 - (1,614,324) (1,654,070) (1,154,924) 43,790 1,113,566 1,328,333 1,481,226 2,541,720 2,569,176 2,559,588 FALSE FALSE FALSE 8,758 222,713 265,667 296,245 508,344 513,835 511,918 Corporation tax (E) Working capital Depreciation adjustment costs (F) 5-7 Operating cash flow (G) * G=D-E+F Investment cash flow (H) Free cash flow (I) * I=G+H 〃 Thousand VND Thousand VND - 230,736 400,752 522,192 558,624 558,624 327,888 255,024 133,584 97,152 97,152 〃 0 (1,383,588) (1,253,318) (632,732) 593,656 1,449,477 1,390,554 1,440,005 2,166,960 2,152,493 2,144,822 〃 (1,801,360) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 〃 (1,801,360) (1,383,588) (1,253,318) (632,732) 593,656 1,449,477 1,390,554 1,440,005 2,166,960 2,152,493 2,144,822 Source: Created by the Study Team c) Introduction of in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business Prerequisites for analysis Each household’s usage fee for the in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business will go to the business’ income. Table 5-13: Prerequisites for financial analysis Project period 10 years Project cost See the integration of the project cost shown in (1) above Determined arbitrarily by Tokyu Corporation System usage fee Number of households Based on the assumption that systems will be installed in using the system 30% of all homes built in Binh Duong New City (estimated based on Tokyu Corporation’s housing business plan) 10 years (determined arbitrarily within statutory life Depreciation period span) Working capital There will be no change in working capital Liquidation/residual There will be no liquidation/residual value at the end of value the project period Corporate Tax As required by law (standard rate of tax: 25% up to 2013, falling to 22% from January 1, 2014, and 20% from January 1, 2016) *See JETRO website Discount rate 9.00% (based on yield on Vietnamese 10-year bonds (data published by ADB on December 18, 2013)) Source: Created by the Study Team Summary of analysis results Table 5-14 Results of financial analysis Cash flow See Table 5-15 FIRR 14.89% (financial internal rate of return) NPV (net present value) 26.612 billion VND (≒131.5million JPY) Source: Created by the Study Team 3) Review of the economic analysis The following qualitative organizing will be conducted in regards to social benefits that can be expected by implementing each project: (1) introduction of a standalone smartcard commuter pass system for buses, (2) introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and (3) introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. 5-8 Table 5-15 Cash flow in relation to the introduction of home monitoring systems in the security Sales (A) System costs System maintenance costs 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year 7th year 8th year 9th year 10th year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unit Start date Thousand VND - 3,060,288 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 241,762,752 - 3,060,288 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 12,241,152 241,762,752 20,240,000 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 15,787,200 20,240,000 - 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 0 15,787,200 Income from usage fees Cost of sales (B) 1st year Thousand VND 〃 〃 〃 〃 Depreciation costs (C) 〃 - 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 Gross profit (D) *D=A-(B+C) 〃 - (14,750,912) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) (5,570,048) 223,951,552 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 44,790,310 Corporation tax (E) Working capital 5-9 Depreciation adjustment costs (F) Operating cash flow (G) * G=D-E+F Investment cash flow (H) Free cash flow (I) * I=G+H 〃 Thousand VND Thousand VND 〃 - 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 2,024,000 0 (12,726,912) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) 181,185,242 0 0 0 0 0 0 (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) (3,546,048) 181,185,242 〃 (20,240,000) 0 〃 (20,240,000) (12,726,912) 0 (3,546,048) 0 (3,546,048) Source: Created by the Study Team 0 (3,546,048) Table 5-16: Expected social benefits by implementing each project User benefits Improved convenience by enabling passengers to be without small change and to smoothly get on and off Introduction of standalone Social benefits smartcard commuter pass system Smoother getting on and off the bus will enable stoppage for buses time to reduce and contribute to alleviation of traffic congestion Contribution to environmental improvement through promoting the modal shift User benefits Introduction of standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field Economic benefit from receiving loyalty point Social benefits Encouraging people to purchase products will boost consumer spending, which will contribute to regional economic growth User benefits Introduction of in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business Economic benefits from improvements in services from housekeepers, employees, etc. Social benefits Improved security Realization of disciplinary work environment Source: Created by the Study Team 5-10 Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule As mentioned in Chapter 3, we assume operation of the project as shown in the figure below, concerning: (1) introduction of a standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses, (2) introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and (3) introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. Figure 6-1. Envisioned Expansion of Life Service Business Source: Created by the Study Team Table 6-2 below shows the implementation schedule of the project. The schedule does not include a schedule related to environmental and social considerations because, as described in Chapter 4, the project does not include any item that will have a serious impact on those aspects. 6-1 Table 6-2. Project Implementation Schedule (draft) Fiscal 2013 1 1. Introduction of smart card commuter passes (1) Discussions regarding system design and specifications (2) Tendering 2 3 Fiscal 2014 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fiscal 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 Start of bus services (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation 2. Trial of loyalty point card system (1) Discussions regarding system specifications (2) Tendering Opening of small-scale commercial facility (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation 3. Introduction of employee monitoring system (1) Discussions regarding system specifications (2) Tendering Introduction of employee monitoring system (3) System procurement, configuration and testing (4) System installation Source:Created by the Study Team 6-2 6 Chapter 7 Ability of Local Organizations to Implement the Project (1) Profiles of Organizations Involved in the Project The following organizations are involved in the implementation of the project. Table 7-1: Organizations involved in the project Organization Becamex IDC Jurisdiction and authority A development corporation in Binh Duong Province, Becamex IDC, promotes urban development of the province. It is the joint venture partner of Tokyu Corporation. Becamex Tokyu Joint venture company with Becamex IDC and a provider of advanced life services Source: Created by the Study Team (2) Ability of Organizations Related to Implementation of the Project Becamex Tokyu, one of the organizations involved in the implementation of project items, is an organization engaged in the advanced life service business. It was established jointly by Tokyu Corporation and Becamex IDC for the development of Binh Duong New City. Therefore, its ability to implement the project will be best described by details of Becamex IDC as its parent company, which are as follows. 1) History Becamex IDC is a limited company wholly funded by the government of Binh Duong Province. For more than 35 years since its establishment in 1976, the company has been highly regarded for its superior track record and high brand power in the field of infrastructure development, including industrial parks, residential areas, urban areas and transportation systems. It has remained highly competitive by diversifying its businesses through its 28 subsidiaries. The subsidiaries work in a wide variety of fields, including securities, finance, insurance, banking, construction, trading, real estate, service, telecommunications, information technology, concrete production, construction material, mining, pharmacies, medical care and education. 2) Corporate profile Total statutory capital: 5,500 billion VND (approx. 30 billion JPY) Total business capital: More than 10 trillion VND (more than approx. 500 billion JPY) Number of employees: 3,922 (management: 230; foreign experts: 30; engineers: 90) 7-1 3) Major achievements, etc. Development of industrial infrastructure: Becamex IDC has succeeded in developing advanced international industrial parks and industrial districts. More than 95% of the industrial parks have been filled with total investment capital of about $6.3 billion, creating jobs for 150,000 people. Development of transportation infrastructure: Build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects such as the National Highway 13 between Ho Chi Minh City and Binh Duong Province and the expressway between My Phuoc and Tan Van have contributed to the economic development. They have also improved the goods circulation between Binh Duong and the entire area of the Southern Key Economic Zone as well as the Highland area. Urbanization: Large-scale project in progress: Becamex City Center: Becamex City Center is the first modern and model urban center in Binh Duong Province. The project occupies an area of 6 ha with fully equipped facilities such as commercial houses, high-class condominiums, offices for lease, hotels, restaurants and supermarkets. It is the economic, political and social center of Binh Duong New City. Ecolakes Project in the My Phuoc Industrial Park: This is a jointly operated project between Becamex IDC and the Setia Group, a major developer in Malaysia. This project is a typical model offering high standards for new living in a modern residential area designed to harmonize with nature and the environment. Binh Duong New City: This has been built on an area of about 1,000 ha in the Binh Duong Industry-Service-Urban Complex. This new city will be the political and administrative center of Binh Duong Province, with the peoples’ committee and the peoples’ council of the province located within it. It will be ready to serve more than 125,000 residents and provide workplaces for more than 400,000 people. Medical and educational development: My Phuoc General Hospital: A general hospital with 500 beds and a site area of about 2 ha Eastern International General Hospital: A project for building a general hospital with 1,000 beds and a site area of approximately 12 ha. Eastern International University: A university constructed on an area of about 26 ha, which will accept about 24,000 students every year (plan) 7-2 Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies (1) Presumable Form of Participation of Japanese Companies (in investment, supply of materials and equipment, operation and management of facilities, etc.) We will engage in the businesses mentioned in the preceding chapters: (1) introduction of a standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses, (2) introduction of a standalone loyalty point card system in the commercial field and (3) introduction of an in-home monitoring system for residents and employee monitoring system for business owners in the security business. It is assumed that Becamex Tokyu will engage in investment, procurement of materials and equipment, and operation and management for all these businesses. Having carried out a survey into improvements to the communication environment in Binh Duong Province, which will be a prerequisite for all three projects, results indicate that there is room for improvement with regard to how services are operated by local communications carrier VNTT. The next step will be to look into Japanese companies providing operational training and consulting services, based on their expertise and experience of providing services on a global level. 1) Form of Investment It is assumed that funding for the three projects will be organized by Becamex Tokyu, a joint venture between Tokyu Corporation and BECAMEX IDC. Becamex Tokyu will be launching a shuttle bus service linking Thu Dau Mot City, in the central part of Binh Duong Province, and Binh Duong New City in 2014. Commercial facilities due to open in 2014 meanwhile are considering introducing smart cards as loyalty point cards. Construction is currently underway on Ho Chi Minh City Metro Line 1, which will serve as an urban transport link between Ho Chi Minh City and Suoi Tien in Binh Duong Province. The line will be mainly used by people living in Binh Duong Province and commuters to Binh Duong New City. It will therefore be crucial to use the same standards between smart cards for services in Binh Duong Province and on Metro Line 1, in the interests of convenience and increasing passenger numbers. As urban rail links in Vietnam have been built with assistance from various different countries, there is a lack of standardization in terms of smart card standards on different lines. FeliCa is nonetheless being considered as the standard for smart cards on Metro Line 1. Becamex Tokyu will also take into account compatibility with IC card standards on Metro Line 1 when introducing smart card bus commuter passes and loyalty point cards in the future. This project should ideally be included as part of public-private initiatives aimed at promoting smart cards, so that it is eligible to receive financial assistance from the Japanese government. In terms of specifics, materials and equipment for activities such as installing smart card commuter pass systems could be provided as part of a JICA technical cooperation project, with technical transfer and other such matters then handled by the Department of Transport and other government agencies in Vietnam. 8-1 The Project to Promote Private-Sector Technologies for Socioeconomic Development in Developing Countries, a JICA public-private partnership scheme, could also be used to provide training and consulting services to help VNTT improve operations. 2) Supply of Materials and Equipment We are considering procuring the materials and equipment for project implementation in Japan and exporting them to Binh Duong Province in Vietnam. The following specifies the materials and equipment that need to be procured. Figure8-1 Materials and equipment required for a standalone smart card commuter pass system for buses Material or equipment Description to be introduced Contactless smart cards Smart cards equipped with built-in antennas to send and receive data with the use of radio waves from external terminals Bus-mounted terminals Communication terminals to be installed in buses Terminals for depots Terminals to be installed at bus renewal stations (depots) that retrieve data on incoming and outgoing passengers from bus-mounted terminals Terminals for inspectors Portable terminals that independently retrieve data on incoming and outgoing passengers from each bus Systems for issuing Systems placed at each depot for entering data on incoming stations and outgoing passengers on individual buses and other data Depot system A main system that collects data from systems at individual renewal stations Source: Created by the Study Team Figure8-2 Materials and equipment required for a standalone loyalty point card system Material or equipment Description to be introduced Contactless smart cards Smart cards equipped with built-in antennas to send and receive data using radio waves from external terminals Terminals for stores Terminals installed in stores for reading data stored in smart cards Communication Dedicated communication equipment with LAN support equipment Head office Associates the ID of a card with personal information to management software manage and analyze the amounts of purchases made by the holder, points earned, the history of purchases using points owned and the history of use of points Source: Created by the Study Team 8-2 Figure8-3 Materials and equipment required for monitoring systems Material or equipment Description to be introduced Portable terminal Portable devices capable of checking home security while the user is out Security Camera Security camera systems capable of recording images System using fixed camera with built-in infrared projectors Home Camera System Home camera systems capable of detecting movement in the home using built-in motion sensors Management System Software capable of managing communication of security data received from the security camera system or home camera system between the user’s home and the portable terminal Source: Created by the Study Team 3) Operation and Management of Facilities Facilities will be operated and managed by Becamex Tokyu, as outlined in the diagram below. Figure8-4 Diagram of Business Operation Scheme in Binh Duong New City BECAMEX IDC Tokyu Coporation Joint Company BECAMEX TOKYU Commercial buildings Point card Office buildings Executing body Residential Security Bus service Other urban facilities, infrastructure IC Pass Binh Duong New City Source: Created by the Study Team 8-3 (2) Technical, Economic and Other Advantages of Japanese Companies in Implementation of the Project 1) Technical Advantage We adopt PASMO and Suica transit fare smart cards for our own Tokyu Bus services. We will be able to capitalize on this experience for introduction of transit fare smart cards to Binh Duong Province. With respect to loyalty point cards we also have a record of results in introduction and operation since we issue and operate our TOP& point card. This card is associated with PASMO and Suica and can also function as a transit fare smart card. In the security business, we have a subsidiary of Tokyu Security Co., Ltd. to offer a building monitoring system and many other security services. Figure 8-5 TOKYU services in Japan (Image) Source: Created by the Study team As mentioned above, the technologies used in this project are some of those in practical application on a commercial basis as living services that we already operate in Japan. We have an extensive track record and abundant experience in offering similar services in Binh Duong Province. Given that it is important to increase smart card users in the three businesses mentioned above, we are striving to adopt the same smart card standards for Metro Line 1 to ensure interchangeability. We are exploring the possibility of introducing Sony’s FeliCa card standard, which uses Japanese technology, to Metro Line 1. Although its market share is high in Japan, FeliCa lags behind NXP Semiconductors based in the Netherlands, which owns the MIFARE technology, and behind US-based Motorola in the global market. Their technologies fall under what is known as Type A and Type B standards. However, FeliCa is superior to their technologies in 8-4 terms of response speed, storage capacity and security features. It excels particularly when it is used at automatic ticket gates, building entry gates, cash registers, etc. where high-speed processing is required. FeliCa is widely used in the Asia region with its high population density, and it is a technology that easily achieves the level of lifestyles realized in Japanese cities. Adopted in Japan for PASMO and Suica transit fare smart cards and Edy electronic money, FeliCa contributes to greater convenience in people’s lives. We are considering integrated smart cards covering transport, electronic money and security services to achieve the Japanese standard of living in Binh Duong Province, and FeliCa is suited to achieve it. 2) Economic Advantage Since this project is financed by Becamex Tokyu’s own funds, it is unnecessary to study the economic advantage. In the interests of coordination with Metro Line 1 however, one option would be to consider using funds from the Japanese government in order to upgrade the project. (3) Actions Requisite to Helping Japanese Companies Gain More Orders 1) Strengthening of Support in Collaboration Between Public and Private Sectors Although these three projects will be carried out on a standalone basis, it will nonetheless be important to proceed in collaboration between the public and private sectors. For example, Becamex Tokyu will be launching a bus service linking Thu Dau Mot City, in the central part of Binh Duong Province, and Binh Duong New City in 2014, and will be issuing smart cards at the same time. If materials and equipment, including buses themselves and onboard smart card readers, and technical expertise were to be provided through financial assistance from the Japanese government, in order to reinforce this process, it would be possible to distribute smart cards to more bus passengers and coordinate effectively with Metro Line 1 in the future. 2) Building of Partnerships with Local Relevant Organizations In connection with smart card introduction to Binh Duong Province, it is vital to strengthen ties with Becamex IDC, which takes the leadership role in development in the province. Relationships will also need to be established with local banks, which will be responsible for issuing smart cards. It will be necessary to gather information on an ongoing basis, making the most of the network with Binh Duong Department of Information and Communications, with which Tokyu Corporation has already built up a good relationship through past ICT surveys. In addition to building relationships with associated private companies, it will also be necessary to approach the Vietnamese government and the Binh Duong Province authorities, in an effort to build partnerships with public institutions. This project originally intended to conduct a deeper survey on the ICT environment that we have independently studied, but after the Japanese government adopted it, the understanding and provision of 8-5 information from Binh Duong Province authorities were improved in terms of quality and it became easier to build ties. Strengthening of collaborative relations between the Japanese government and the Vietnamese counterpart or Binh Duong Province authorities and lobbying activities concerned with this project will be key factors to implementation of the project. 8-6
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© 2013 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be rel...
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