Activision Blizzard - University of Oregon Investment Group
Transcription
Activision Blizzard - University of Oregon Investment Group
05/13/2016 Technology, Media, Telecom Sector Activision Blizzard Ticker: ATVI Current Price: $37.26 Recommendation: Outperform Price Target: $40.16 Action Recommendation: Buy Investment Thesis Key Statistics $24.04-$37.99 52 Week Price Range 50-Day M oving Average $33.98 Estimated Beta 1.333 Dividend Yield 0.76% M arket Capitalization (mm) 27,347 3-Year Revenue CAGR 37.28% Trading Statistics Diluted Shares Outstanding (mm) 734.99 Average Volume (3-M onth) (mm) 7.703 Institutional Ownership 70% Insider Ownership 30% Activision Blizzard is well positioned as the No.1 leader in the video game publishing industry and is capable to achieve stable long-term growth given its strong brand loyalty and high-quality franchises. The internal financial power enables the firm to invest heavily in new franchise development and explore more aggressive projects. The Acquisition of King Digital Entertainment allows Activision Blizzard to expand its market share in Mobile Gaming Industry and continue to diverse its revenue sources. The Establishment of Activision Blizzard Studio will promote its existing franchises and generate profits from media segment, imitating the successful model of the Walt Disney Company The proven capability to create highly successful franchises enables Activision Blizzard to be less dependent on third-party developers and outperform its competitors in the long run. 16.92x EV/EBITDA (LTM ) Margins and Ratios Gross M argin (LTM ) 66.02% EBITDA M argin (LTM ) 33.70% Net M argin (LTM ) 21.40% Debt to Enterprise Value 0.16x Covering Analysts: Jing Li Email: [email protected] Email 1 University of Oregon Investment Group University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 1: Activision Blizzard’s Realized Revenue Breakdown by Business Segments (in Q1 2016) Business Overview History Activision & Blizzard, as one of the largest interactive gaming companies in the world, was established in 2008 by the merger of Activision Inc. and Vivendi Inc. The company is the component of the S&P 500 and its headquarter locates in Santa Monica, California. The famous franchise of the company includes Call of Duty, Skylanders, Guitar Hero, Warcraft, StarCraft, Diablo and the incoming OverWatch. The Company was originally owned and operated by Vivendi Games Inc. as it controlled 63% of the shares. On July 25th, 2013, Activision Blizzard completed one of its biggest stock purchases in the company history, acquiring a total of shares worth $5.83 billion dollars from its parent company Vivendi Games and becoming an independent company. Source: 10-Q Fillings of Activision Blizzard Figure 2: Revenue Comparison: Retail vs Digital (Millions) In 2014, Activision Blizzard surpassed Electronic Art and claimed the throne as the biggest video games publishers in the United States. One year later, in 2015, Activision Blizzard announced the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment Inc. and closed the deal on Feb 23, 2016. Nowadays, with King Digital Entertainment joining the group, Activision Blizzard continuously strengthens its leading position in the video game publishing industry. Other important business units include Activision Blizzard Studio and Major League Gaming. Business Segments and Products Activision Blizzard divide its sales into two segments: Product and Digital. In 2015 calendar year, the revenue generated from digital channel has outweighed the revenue from retail channel. Source: 10-K Fillings of Activision Blizzard Figure 3: Online Transaction as % of Total in All Industry Source: IBISWorld Product segment includes the revenue generated from sales of physical products in stores. The distribution of physical product is conducted by the Activision Blizzard’s subsidiary and alliances, including marketplaces (Target), electronic discount stores (BestBuy), online retailer (Amazon.com) and local gaming stores. The physical products are offered in standard edition and collector edition in order to meet the different need from customers, especially all Blizzard's games having a high-end edition for hardcore fans. Since 2012, the growth in digital segment has been outpacing the growth of product segment and the revenue from retail product declined from 75% in 2012 to 52% in 2015 due to the greater popularity of digital download. However, physical products are still favored by a great portion of loyal customers as physically collectible contents appeal more attractive to them than the digital contents. Digital segment represents a fast growing and profitable business model for Activision Blizzard with the segment revenue doubling since 2011. This revenue source of the segment is very diverse, including subscription revenue from online video game World of Warcraft, licensing revenue from all Activision Blizzard’s franchises, value-add services, digital downloadable contents and purchase of intangible contents in game. Focusing on the delivery of highquality digital contents is one of Activision Blizzard’s priority as digital delivery presents a potential for revenue growth and greater probability. Thanks to the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment Inc., Activision Blizzard is well positioned to boost further growth from the digital business. UOIG 2 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 4: Revenue Growth of Activision (Millions) Business Model Before Activision Publishing Inc. merged with Blizzard Entertainment Inc., these two companies used to operate (right now they still do) in different business models. The merger of these two companies allows Activision Blizzard to possess unique business and internal financing advantages over its main competitors. Activision: Source: 10-K Fillings of Activision Blizzard Figure 5: Revenue Growth of Blizzard (Millions) Activision has been the old rival for Electronic Art for a long period since 1980s due to their very similar business model. Activision, as well as Electronic Art, publishes and licenses games developed by small video gaming firms and put a significant effort on publishing the sequels of games with great financial success. The advantage of this strategy is less risk than creating their own franchises, which usually requires expensive capital investments, and generates stable cash inflow and financial performance. Nonetheless, there have been many games that did not sell well and were criticized by the public. That being said, even though Activision published a considerable amount of games more than its roommate Blizzard, Activision was merely the publisher instead of the developer for many cases, which results in being questioned about its capability to develop its own successful franchises. Famous franchises of Activision include Call of Duty series, Skylanders, Guitar Hero and Destiny franchise. Blizzard: Source: 10-K Fillings of Activision Blizzard Figure 6: Top 10 MMO Games by Revenue in 2014 (Millions, gray marked the games owned by Blizzard) Blizzard, which has an opposite strategy to Activision, is the powerhouse of five legendary franchises--World of Warcraft, Diablo, StarCraft, Hearthstone and Heroes of the Storm--under operation with Overwatch joining the family in May 2016. Blizzard Entertainment is worshiped by its reputation and MMO (Massive Multi-players Online) business model to create long-existing franchises with huge financial success. MMO business model has the following advantages over the traditional single-player game model. • Beside the traditional revenue realized from the sale of games and licensing fees, MMO games bring additional profits by providing online add-in value and charge subscription fees while keep players playing for a much longer period due to the high interaction between players and consistent new contents. The most financially successful example would be the World of Warcraft, which is the most successful MMO game ever in history measured by the monthly active users (MAU). • The MMO model will significantly increase the profitability and increasing profitability has been Activision Blizzard’s priority since the merger. Periodic updates and maintenance of existing games is much less labor intensive, boosting the contribution margin for the publishers. However, compared to Activision, Blizzard only published very few games and sequels annually and consequently, its financial performance is much more volatile than Activision to the release of new franchises and sequels. Source: Statista Therefore, the merger of Activision and Blizzard combines the financial stability of Activision (quantity) and power of MMO business model (quality) together, providing the company more internal financing power and opportunities to conduct speculative projects. UOIG 3 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 7: Revenue Growth of King Digital Entertainment by Quarters for 2014 and 2015 (Millions) Source: Google Finance Figure 8: Revenue Growth of Video Game Software Publishing Industry (Millions) King Digital Entertainment: The King Digital Entertainment Company is the new addition to the Activision Blizzard family as the acquisition closed at Feb 26, 2016. As the mobile gaming industry is rapidly growing in an unignorable pace, the arrival of King will certainly strengthen the mobile game segment of Activision Blizzard and prepares the firm to compete with other rivals, like Electronic Art, in this new emerging market. Before the acquisition, King was a public-own company dedicating to publish best-selling games on mobile apps, Facebook and Windows. The most reputable franchise of King is the Candy Crush Saga and its sequels. By the end of 2015, King Digital Entertainment was the No.1 leader in the smart phone app and gaming industry, with a market share of 14.9%, which was nearly 7 times more than the runner up. After acquired by Activision Blizzard, King will not only continue to publish its existing franchises, including the No.1 downloaded IOS game Candy Crush Saga, but also facilitate the development of Activision Blizzard’s franchises on Mobile by its in-house proven mobile game veterans. Industry Overview The main industry, in which Activision Blizzard operates its business, is the video game publishing industry. Firms in this industry develops and publishes video games for different platforms including PC, consoles, mobile and online platforms like Facebook. Buoyed by the technology evolution and greater accessibility to Internet and mobile, the industry has been growing in an average rate of 10.3% annually in the last few years and it is expected to continue this strong momentum until 2021, by which the revenue will reach nearly a total of 30 billion. Source: IBISWorld Figure 9: Market Share Breakdown by Firms in the Video Game Publishing Industry in 2015 Barrier of Entry: The video game publishing industry requires a level of capital investment that is not prohibitively expensive for a new company, especially as nowadays there are many funding option available for startups. The true barrier to enter the industry is the technology and skilled workers needed to publish high-quality franchises and intellectual properties. Long-established firms, in terms of resources of work forces and mature technology, have advantage over new startups. Power of Consumers: The consumers have extremely high bargaining power in the video game industry as the switching cost for them to choose between different publishers’ games is barely existent. As a result, publishing firms dedicate to provide highquality contents in order to create brand loyalty among its customers with the hope of offsetting their high bargaining power and outperforming competitors in the industry. Rivalry: The internal competition between different publishers is extremely high, with the top five firms controlling more than 35% of the total market share. Activision Blizzard is not only competing with professional publishers such as Electronic Art, but also competing with conglomerates such as Sony and Source: IBISWorld UOIG 4 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 10: Major Consoles Manufacturers and their Market Share by 2015 Microsoft as their subsidiaries operating business in this industry. The main competition focuses on developing good relationship with developers and the rights to publish their new games, even though some big publishers, such as Activision Blizzard, have their own in-house developers. Also firms compete on attracting the most skillful workforces to join by offering better compensation and work-life balance. Power of Suppliers Source: IBISWorld Figure 11: Revenue Growth in Movie & Video Production Industry (Millions) As mentioned before, one of the key competing strategies is to foster relationship with game developers and obtain the right to publish their games, meaning that outstanding developers will enjoy the luxury of maximizing their benefits by choosing between different publishers. Activision Blizzard, as well as other publishers, aggressively compete on getting high-quality game developers and the relationship with developers is crucially important for publishers, especially for those whose strategies are not to heavily invest capitals in developing their own franchises. Established companies with great financial power will position themselves ahead small companies as they are capable to offer better deals from financial perspective. In addition, the relationship with video game consoles manufacturers is also important as publishing games need to be compatible on game platforms, such as Xbox and PS. Substitute Video game publishers compete outside of the industry with other types of entertainment, including KTV, TV, movie, sports and self-published videos. These substitutes represent a great threat to the video gaming industry as they will drive customers away. All entertainment forms compete on attracting new customers and actualizing organic growth, and therefore, they all need to catch the trend of customer preference. With the mobile gaming has become an unstoppable trend, the video gaming industry will welcome the tailwind to overcome the external competition as their easy-to-play mobile games will keep customers playing on their goes as well as staying in this industry. Macro factors Per capita disposable income Source: IBISWorld Figure 12: Per Capita Disposable Income and Growth Rate The Per capita disposable income, which is an indicator of individual’s purchasing power, is one of the most essential factors to the success of Activision Blizzard as the company operates its business in an industry that will be hit heavily if economics encountered a recession. All products and services provided by Activision Blizzard will be more favorable when consumers have stronger purchasing power, especially for luxury digital edition and collector's edition of its franchise games. Overall, there is no other factor that is more important than per capita disposable income to Activision Blizzard. During the last five years, the per capita disposable income has been growing in an average annualized rate of 1.5% since 2011 due to the remaining impact from the financial crisis in 2008 and the implementation of unfavorable political regulation, including the Medical Tax Policy. Going forward, the per capita disposable income is projected to experience a strong recover, reflecting by a compound growth rate of 1.9% until 2021. The faster growth rate of per capita disposable income will represent a boost in Activision Blizzard’s top line and bottom line. Source: IBISWorld UOIG 5 University of Oregon Investment Group Time Spent on Leisure and Sports Figure 13: Projected Revenue Growth of Online Gaming Industry in China (Millions) This macro factor will influence Activision Blizzard’s overall business as the time spending on gaming and leisure can be an indicator of the company’s revenue outlook. When more time that people spend on leisure and sports, the more likely they would play video games as one of their ways to relax. Therefore, an increasing amount of time spends on leisure and sports will potentially benefit the overall video gaming industry and Activision Blizzard’s performance. As a prediction for the next five years, the average time spending on leisure and sports will slowly grow at 0.1% into 2021. However, as the culture and attitude toward to gaming, especially competitive gaming, has been changing in the positive direction, the video game publishing industry will have more potential for actualizing long-term growth. Source: IBISWorld Additionally, there is strong potential for growth in Asia, particularly in China, as the booming of E-sport industry facilitate the increasing time that people spend on video games. Activision Blizzard have already eyed on this great opportunity, launching several franchise games simultaneously in a global basis, such as StarCraft 2 – Legacy of the Void. Figure 14: Trade-weighted index Projection Currency Exchange Rate “For the year ended December 31, 2015, a hypothetical adverse foreign currency exchange rate movement of 10% would have resulted in potential declines of our net income of approximately $121 million.”--Activision Blizzard 2015 10-K Source: IBISWorld Figure 15: Number of Mobile Internet Connection (Millions) As the company states in their 2015 annual reports, the fluctuation in currency exchange is threatening Activision Blizzard’s financial performance and outlook. In 2015, nearly 48% of the total revenue came from oversea, including Europe and Asia. International revenue and related expenses are first recorded in local currencies and then are converted to US dollars. Primary currencies include Australian dollar, British pound, Chinese renminbi, Korean won, Euro and Swedish Krona. That being said, a stronger U.S. will lower Activision Blizzard’s revenues from international markets and result in decreased EBITDA and earnings, especially more revenue will be generated oversee because Asian marketing is booming due to the popularity of E-sport industry in South Korea and China. The trade-weight index measures the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the currencies of its trading partners, including Canada, Australia, China, South Korea and etc. As going forward, the trade-weight index is expected to increase from 89.9 in 2015 to 109.97 in 2022, meaning that the growth of revenue and earnings from international market will be partially offset by the stronger U.S. dollars if there is no cash hedging protection. Mobile Internet Connection As the mobile gaming industry is booming and becomes a relatively new industry for video game publishers to compete, a decent growth in the number of mobile internet connection will be a tailwind for video game publishers. Source: IBISWorld By 2015, there are 241.90 million consumers who have a mobile device connectable to the Internet, enabling them to browse and download mobile games on their devices. This number is projected to grow consistently at an annual compound rate of 5.3% until 2021, by which the number will reach 331.2 UOIG 6 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 16: Projected E-sport Industry Revenue Breakdown by Geography in 2015 (Millions) million. Activision Blizzard, as well as other publishers, will be beneficial from this mega trend. E-Sport Industry One unstoppable trend nowadays is that competitive gaming has become a professional sport activity recognized by official government in many countries. The total revenue generated from E-sport market, by conservative estimate, will hit at least 0.5 billion and 1.0 billion respectively in 2017 and 2020. Some research agents, like Superdata, even predict the revenue from E-sport Industry will pass 1.9 billion by 2018 and reach 3.0 billion by 2020. The prize cool has been growing in even a faster pace, passing 40 million dollars in 2015 as the total prize pool money. Source: SuperData Figure 17: Projected E-Sport Industry Revenue Breakdown by Sources in 2015 (Millions) According to Newzoo’s research report, the winner of Dota 2 International 2015 Championship took home 6 million in total or 1.2 million per player, which was higher than the 3rd Place Prize Money in 2014 Soccer World Cup.. In 2013 and 2014, the Unite State Government issued professional sport visas to several notable professional gamers sponsored by the local professional gaming teams, including the No.1 North America powerhouse Evil Genius. As the popularity and prize money in E-sport industry soaring, game publishers have a huge potential to boost their revenue from the E-sport market. Competition Activision Blizzard competes for the leisure time and spending of consumers and the company not only faces sustainable competition with other publishers in the video game publishing industry, but also competes with other forms of entertainment. The primary competition includes but not limited to: • The quality of franchises, product features and playability. • The brand awareness among consumers. • The compatibility of products with popular platforms. • The resources to invest, develop and test new games. • The distribution channel to reach consumers. • The marking and sale strategy. • The changing technology and skillful workers. Source: SuperData Figure 18: Cash Hold By Activision Blizzard (Millions) Overall, the level of competition for Activision Blizzard is very intense as there are many other famous publishers operating business in the industry. Outside of the industry, Activision also faces the threat from other entertainment giants such as Walt Disney Company and Comcast. Strategic Positioning The Strong Balance Sheet Activision Blizzard, by December 31, 2015, had a total asset of 15,251 million and nearly no debt under management, compared to Electronic Art’s 6,470 million asset and Take-Two Interactive’s 2,106 million. As the largest video game publisher in the western measured by both revenue and assets, Activision Blizzard is able to fully utilize its economics of sale to conduct strategic movement and implement speculative acquisitions. Source: 10-K Fillings of Activision Blizzard UOIG 7 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 19: Reputable Franchises of Activision By the end of 2015, with 5.2 billion in cash on hand, Activision Blizzard was able to acquire King Digital Entertainment Inc. for $18 per share or a total of 5.9 billion all by cash, without relying on debt heavily. Overall the powerful cash pool plus the low level of debt will give Activision Blizzard a unique advantage to make strategic acquisitions and investments. The Quantity plus Quality As mentioned in the previous section, Activision and Blizzard individually have different business model with Activision focusing on primarily publishing thirdparty developed games in a great number and Blizzard working on its MMO business model with few very successful franchises. Thanks to the merger of these two firms, the Activision Blizzard have more diverse revenue resource and the capability to conduct aggressive investment in new franchises and sequels of existing successful game. Source: Activision Blizzard Site Figure 20: Reputable Franchises of Blizzard Compared to its old rivalry Electronic Art, Activision Blizzard receive more compliment in the industry because of its capability to create original franchises. This credit mainly goes to Blizzard as all of its games were their own franchises, including the most famous World of Warcraft series and Diablo 3 Series. With Blizzard continuously producing high-quality franchises, Activision Blizzard has the backbone to outperform its peers going forward. The Kingdom of Franchises Activision Blizzard, as one of the largest franchise-held company in the world, have many well-known franchises across different platform. The Call of Duty series published by Activision is the best-selling game in history, generating more than 11 billion revenue since its very first release back in 2003. The World of Warcraft is the most successful MMO game ever with five expansion released and the sixth coming at the end of 2016. Diablo 3, which was published by Blizzard in 2012, is the best-single-selling game, excluding any precedent and sequel, in the company, with a total of more than 30 million copies sold by the second quarter of 2015. This sale number of Diablo earned the game a spot in the list of Top 10 Best-Selling Games in the history. Source: Activision Blizzard Site Because of the big pool of successful franchises, Activision Blizzard has been able to build up formidable market share and obtained sustainable competitive advantages. Existing franchises also enable the company to publish sequels, which are far less risky than to create new franchises with zero use base and brand awareness, and stabilize revenue growth. Overall expanding established franchises and creating sequels provide high predictability of revenue and increase the profitability of foreseeable high volume sales. Figure 21: Reputable Franchises of King Great Place to Work 2016 is the second year that Activision Blizzard made to the Fortune list of 100 best Companies to work, advancing from #96 in 2015 to #77 in 2016. Based on the Fortune magazine's survey, 96% of the employee are proud to work in Activision Blizzard and 92% of them are willing to sacrifice extra time to get the job done. In order to keep the harmonic relationship with its employees, Activision Blizzard launched several programs, including the Activision Blizzard Studio Summit, Wellness program and Activisionaries, to enrich employees’ working experience, to improve work-life balance and health condition, and to motivate Source: Activision Blizzard Site UOIG 8 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 22: Revenue from Top 10 Call of Duty Franchise Series (Millions) their employees intellectually. The capability to attract and maintain best talents in the industry puts the company in a well-defensive position. Business Growth Strategies Continue the Organic Growth One of the primary revenue growth strategies for Activision Blizzard is to continuously publish high-quality sequels of established successful franchises. A sequel of successful franchises usually end up generating great financial success thanks to the reputation of existing franchises and also keep the brand loyalty from its customers. Source: Forbes Figure 23: Revenue Growth in Smartphone App and Game Developers Industry (Millions) For example, Call of Duty has been the No.1 selling game in the North America for seven years in a row, with the latest expansion Black Ops III outselling its previous two expansions and collecting more than 550 million revenue in the first three days of its launch. One reason why Activision Blizzard implement this strategy successfully is that the company consistently improve user experience by releasing new patches even after games were launched for several years. In 2016, the outlook of franchise sequels for Activision Blizzard is unstoppable. From Activision side, the top three franchises Call of Duty, Destiny and Skylanders will all launch their new expansion in the second half of the year. From Blizzard side, World of Warcraft will welcome its sixth expansion in the summer. Expand the Franchise Family Source: IBISWorld Figure 24: Revenue Growth in Smartphone App and Game Developers Industry (Millions) Activision Blizzard has been consistently seeking and developing world-class franchises in order to expand the franchise pool and diversify its revenue sources. As the internal financing strengths have been mature after the merger of Activision and Blizzard, the company right now can fully utilize the advantage from internal allocation of capital and enjoy the luxury of conducting several projects simultaneously. In the second quarter of 2016, the company will launch its long-awaited new first-person shooter game--Overwatch, which is expected to become the biggest launch of Blizzard since Diablo 3 based on the pre-sale data. This new franchise game will not only serve the community of Blizzard, but also help the company compete with other famous first-person shooter game like Counter Strike. In addition, thanks to the large number of franchises owned by the company, Activision Blizzard can easily create new franchise games based on existing franchises. In 2012 and 2013, Activision Blizzard launched Hearthstone and Heroes of Storm respectively, which have tremendous success in growing audience and revenue. Hearthstone acquired 10 million registered users in just one quarter and Heroes of the Storm just hit 20 million users by Q1 2016. All the characters in these two games come from existing franchises, including Warcraft, Diablo and StarCraft and they are proven to be very successful so far. Grow with the Mobiles Source: IBISWorld As the mobile gaming industry is booming, the Activision Blizzard is eager to enter the new market and expand its share. During the last few years, before the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment Inc., Activision Blizzard has already made some success in the industry. The Hearthstone, which is the very first and milestone game on mobile from Blizzard side, has just past 50 million in UOIG 9 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 25: Most visited streaming sites among US eSports viewers in 2015 audience, with 10 million new audiences adding in last quarter. Entering 2016, with the support from King’s experienced mobile game veterans, Activision Blizzard is expected to popularize its existing franchise games across mobile app platform. In 2016 schedule, the next expansion of Hearthstone is in progress and King is expected to launch two new non-candy crush franchise games in the summer and fall respectively. Catch up the E-sport The E-sport popularity seems to be unstoppable during the last few years as the revenue from this industry increased 48% year to year in 2015 and it is expected to hit half billion by 2017. Not only the revenue growth is accelerating but also the prize pool money is increasing tremendously, reaching 71 million in 2015, which represents a 97% year to year growth compared to 2014. Source: SuperData Figure 26: Top Players World Wide by Prize Earnings by 2015 (Thousands) Activision Blizzard is well-positioned to gain more market share in the E-sport tailwind with its diverse franchise games in competitive gaming. From Activision, the Call of Duty annual tournament in 2015 had a prize pool of 1 million dollars in total and it is expected to grow larger this year. From Blizzard side, all of the franchises, except for Diablo and World of Warcraft, are competitive games, which will mostly benefit from the E-sport booming. As going into 2016, Blizzard’s annual event-Blizzcon-has the biggest prize pool ever in history, offering a total of 2.75 million dollars to players competing in this World Championship Event. Furthermore, Activision Blizzard acquired Major League Gaming (MLG), which is the one of the largest game livebroadcast websites and a professional organizer for E-sport tournaments, at January 01, 2016 for 46 million dollars. The alliance between Facebook and Activision Blizzard allows the company to launch E-sports broadcast network with Facebook with the hope of spreading the heat of E-sport to the users in the biggest social platform in the world. All these action will lead to the company’s financial success in the E-Sport Industry. Team up for Blockbusters Source: E-sport Earnings Figure 27: Top 10 Movies in 2015 by Global Box Office (Millions) Source: Mojo Box Office The video game software publishing industry has switch its favor similar to the movie industry, which is to employ a “blockbuster style” of sale, meaning that large-investment franchises, such as Call of Duty and Diablo series, are more likely to succeed commercially and break numbers of sale record. As this trend becomes popular in the industry, Activision Blizzard is well positioned to catch this trend and leverage on it as it has plenty experiences of creating blockbuster games. The upcoming blockbuster games, Call of Duty Infinite Warfare and Overwatch, contain tremendous growth potential for the company in 2016. Not only does Activision Blizzard focuses on creating blockbuster game, but also would the company release the very first blockbuster movie this year. Activision Blizzard, together with Legendary Studio and Universal Studio, completed the production of the film Warcraft and it is expected to hit the movie market heavily this summer. Going forward, Activision Blizzard would like to copy the success of media giants, using blockbuster movies to promote its franchises and to boost revenue from the gigantic global box office market. Activision Blizzard is determined to continuously release several franchise movies in the future, including the upcoming Call of Duty film scheduled in 2017 temporarily. By executing this strategy, Activision Blizzard will expect revenue from more diverse sources and effectively promote its existing franchises within the global box office market. UOIG 10 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 28: Compensation of Important Executives in 2015 Management and Employee Relations Overall, Activision Blizzard has a very experienced and stable management team, which is led by the CEO Bobby Kotick, who has been serving in the company for more than two decades. With this well-rounded and experience management team, Activision Blizzard is expected to continue its success going forward. Bobby Kotick - President and Chief Executive Officer Source: Morningstar Figure 29: Total Compensation of Top Management in Electronic Art vs. Activision Blizzard Bobby Kotick started his career as a co-founder of a software startup company in the video game publishing industry in 1980s. In 1990, Bobby acquired 9% of the total share of Activision and became the Chief Executive Officer in the company at 1991. After the merger of Activision and Blizzard, Bobby continue to serve as the President and Chief Executive Officer to present. As serving the company for more than two decades, Bobby Kotick has tremendous experience in the video game industry and he is also the cochairman of the Call of Duty Endowment, which is served as a non-profit organization aiming at recruiting skillful veterans in the industry. Outside of Activision Blizzard, Bobby Kotick also serves as one of the board of directors at Coco-Cola Company. Dennis Durkin - Chief Financial Officer Before joined Activision Blizzard in 2012, Dennis Durkin hold several positions at Microsoft Company, including the most recent title of the Vice President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer in XBOX division. Dennis Durkin has great experience in video game publishing and developing and has been serving brilliantly as the Chief Financial Offers of Activision Blizzard for nearly four years. Dennis Durkin hold a B.A. degree in government from Dartmouth College and a MBA from Harvard Business School. Thomas Tippl - Chief Operating Officer Source: Morningstar Figure 30: Stock Performance of Activision Blizzard, S&P 500 and NASDAQ since 2010 Before Thomas Tippl joined the Activision Blizzard in October 2005 as the Chief Financial Officer of Activision Publishing and became the Chief Operating Officer in 2010 after the merger of Activision and Blizzard. Also Thomas was holding the title of Chief Corporate Officer during 2009 to 2010 in the company. Prior to Activision, Thomas had been gaining experience as the Chief Financial Officer of Procter & Gamble in different regions, including China, Japan and Europe. Management Guidance Source: Activision Blizzard 10-K Fillings Management Guideline is provided in two parts -- GAAP and Non-GAAP, and it is usually updated in each quarter after the quarterly earnings released. In the 2015 Q4 earning call, the original outlook provided by management team was, on a GAAP basis, revenue of 1,260 million and EPS of $0.21 for 2016 Q1 and revenue of 6,100 million and EPS of $0.45 per share for the calendar year 2016. After the better-than-expectation results released for 2016 Q1, the management boosted the guideline as following: UOIG 11 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 31: Tall Firs Portfolio Sector Allocation • For 2016 Q2, the revenue is expected to be 1,375 million and the EPS is expected to be $0.10 per share. • For the calendar year 2016, we expect a revenue of 6,130 million and an EPS of $0.69 per share. During the last few years, management has been very cautious about providing their financial guidelines, which have led to frequent outperformance. Therefore, the better-than-expectation results of 2016 Q1 earning were not too surprising. Portfolio Strategy Portfolio Analysis Source: Tall Firs Portfolio Report in 2016 Annual Meeting Figure 32: Activision Blizzard Pitching and Update History in the University of Oregon Investment Group Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is being pitched for both Tall Firs and DADCO portfolios. For Tall Firs, due to the fact that it is fairly weighted in large cap and the Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) sector, Activision Blizzard will be a good addition even though it will make Tar Firs slight overweight in large cap and TMT sector. The fundamental value-play style of Activision Blizzard also makes it a good fit for Tall Firs. I am pitching the stock for DADCO because as the acquisition of MLG and King completed and the establishment of Blizzard Entertainment Studio, the company has tremendous potential for growth in the next two to three years, plus its value-play nature making its success more predictable. Pitching History Activision Blizzard was originally pitched in 2008 by the senior analyst named Russell Sneddon with a recommendation of Buy for all portfolios. After the group purchased the stock, the stock had been updated three times in Fall 2009, Fall 2011 and Fall 2012, eventually the group ending up selling the stock from all portfolios. Source: University of Oregon Investment Group Recent News Activision Blizzard Gets Hoped-For Boost from King Digital -Wall Street Journal, May 05, 2016 Figure 33: Monthly Active Users of King Digital Entertainment since 2014 (Millions) Activision Blizzard reported a very strong results for its first quarter of calendar year 2016. With the completion of King’s acquisition, Activision Blizzard boosted its revenue and EPS outlook and delivered an adjusted revenue of 908 million vs 813 million expected from Wall Street Analyst. Piper Jaffray analyst Mike Olson highlighted the acquisition of King as a no-brainer move, which will milk Activision Blizzard in the long term. With factoring in King, the monthly active users (MAU) grows up to 544 million, which are crucially important for upcoming new mobile games from Activision Blizzard. Why Analysts Are Chasing Activision Blizzard Even Higher Wall Street Journal, May 06, 2016 Source: King’s Investor Relation With the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment, the monthly active users of Activision Blizzard reach to 544 million, which is the 4th largest network in the world, only behind Facebook, YouTube and WeChat. This strong MAU basis gives the company the potential to promote its franchises widely. Not only the MAU basis of King was growing, but also did Activision and Blizzard grow at a rate of 14% compared to previous year. Analysts expect this momentum will carry forward and assist the company’s long-term growth. UOIG 12 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 34: Total Prize Pool at Blizzcon World Championship Series in 2015 and 2016 Activision Blizzard Crushes Estimates, Sees Big Future in ESports --Yahoo Finance, May 06, 2016 The article focuses on the next potential industry--The E-sport Industry--for Activision Blizzard lifting their revenue. The business model from Activision Blizzard, particularly from Blizzard, is built up based on the social perspective of competitive gaming and Esport. As the recognition of Esport has been soaring during the last two years, the industry has been growing into a billion-dollar industry and Activision Blizzard has positioned themselves brilliantly by owning many famous franchises in the Esport area, including Call of Duty, Warcraft, StarCraft, Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm and the incoming Overwatch. The management in Activision Blizzard is also bullishing on the Esport Industry as well. Source: Blizzard Entertainment Battle Net Catalysts Upside Figure 35: Top Viewed Franchises of E-sport in the United States in 2015 Source: SuperData Market Research Report Downside Figure 36: The Number of Subscribers of World of Warcraft since 2013 (Millions) StarCraft and StarCraft 2 regained popularity in South Korea, where is the biggest E-sport industry for StarCraft franchise. The development of virtual reality will potentially boost the gaming industry. Consumers are more likely to see a blockbuster movie and it would be a tailwind for Blizzard Entertainment Studio and its upcoming Warcraft movie and Call of Duty movie. The Esport has become more popular and more professional gamers and Esport audiences are joining in this booming industry. Consumer behaviors swift from purchasing physical products to download digital content, provided a higher margin and profitability for the company. Maturity of live-stream technology enables the company to provide high-quality visual content and great experience to its customers. The two popular competitive games--League of Legend and Dota 2-represent threats to Activision Blizzard's ambition in dominating the Esport industry. Stronger dollars will hurt the company’s oversee revenue and lower the company’s financial outlook. The MMO gaming industry is losing its popularity, which will inevitably lower the revenue generated from World of Warcraft series. Multinational conglomerates, such as Sony and Walt Disney Company, start to publish games based on their franchises, representing competition and threats to Activision Blizzard. Comparable Analysis (20%) Source: Blizzard Entertainment Inc. A total of five companies were selected to perform the comparable analysis in order to obtain the implied price target. Many factors, including both quality and quantity factors, were taken into consideration when selected the comparables. UOIG 13 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 37: Revenue and Gross Profits of Activision and its Main Competitors. (Millions) There are two media conglomerates were selected into the comparable analysis due to the fact that Activision Blizzard is evolving slowly but surely to a media conglomerates after the establishment of Blizzard Entertainment Studio and the launch of TV series and movie based on its own franchises. In order to catch its exposure and risk in the media industry, Walt Disney Company and Comcast joined the comparable analysis. Electronic Art (EA) -- 50% Source: FactSet Figure 38: Profitability Margin Metrics of Activision and its Main Competitors. “Electronic Arts Inc. develops, markets, publishes, and distributes game software content and online services for video game consoles, Internetconnected consoles, personal computers, mobile phones, and tablets worldwide. The company operates through EA Studios, EA Mobile, and Maxis divisions. It develops and publishes digital interactive entertainment games primarily under the Battlefield, FIFA Soccer, Dragon Age, and Plants vs. Zombies brand names. The company also offers casual games, such as cards, puzzles, and word games through pogo.com and on other platforms; and sells digital content. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.”--Yahoo Finance Electronic Art is the No.1 competitor with Activision Blizzard in the industry and it is best known for many famous franchises, such as Battlefield, FIFA, Battlefield and Dragon Age. Electronic Art was given a weighting of 50% because of its similarity with Activision Blizzard in operating industry, product, consumer basis, brand equity, capital structure and profitability. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) -- 25% Source: FactSet Figure 39: Enterprise Value of Activision Blizzard and its Competitors by 2015 (Millions) “Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. develops, publishes, and markets interactive entertainment for consumers worldwide. The company offers its products under the Rockstar Games and 2K labels. It develops and publishes action/adventure products and offers downloadable episodes, and content and currency; and releasing titles for smartphones and tablets. The company also develops brands in other genres, including the L.A. Noire, Bully, and Manhunt franchises. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in New York, New York.”--Yahoo Finance Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. operates its business in the same industry as Activision Blizzard and is one of the primary competitors as well. Given the fact that Take-Two share similarity with Activision Blizzard in operating industry, consumer basis, product service and relatively similar growth rate, the company was weighted at 25%. Zynga Inc. (ZNGA) -- 15% Source: Yahoo Finance “Zynga Inc. develops, markets, and operates social games as live services played on the Internet, social networking sites, and mobile platforms in the United States, North America, Asia, and the European Union. It offers its online social games primarily under the Slots, Words With Friends, Zynga Poker, and FarmVille franchises. The company was formerly known as Zynga Game Network Inc. and changed its name to Zynga Inc. in November 2010. Zynga Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.”--Yahoo Finance UOIG 14 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 40: Cash and Cash Equivalents of Activision Blizzard and Comparables by 2015 (Millions) Zynga Inc. was selected as a comparable based on the similar operating industry, product and consumer basis compared to Activision Blizzard. However, the company was not comparable with Activision Blizzard in terms of size and profitability. In order to fully reflect the metrics in video gaming publishing industry, Zynga, as a major player in the industry, was still selected but given a weighting of only 15%. Walt Disney Company (DIS) -- 5% Source: Yahoo Finance Figure 41: EV/EBITDA Multiple Comparison between Activision Blizzard and Comparables “The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. The company operates broadcast and cable television networks, domestic television stations, and radio networks and stations. Its cable networks include ESPN, Disney Channels, and ABC Family, as well as UTV/Bindass and Hungama. The company owns eight domestic television stations. It also owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida that includes theme parks; hotels; vacation club properties; a retail, dining, and entertainment complex. Further, it produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video content, musical recordings, and live stage plays.”--Yahoo Finance As the leading conglomerate giant in the media industry, Walt Disney Company did not share too much similarity with Activision Blizzard in terms of product, service, industry and consumer basis. However, in terms of growth rate, profitability, and D/E ratio, these two companies look quite similar plus Disney does produce their own franchise games as well. Also as mentioned early, as Activision Blizzard moves to the media industry and engage in similar business model compared to Disney, Walt Disney was selected as comparable with 5% weighting in order to reflect the risk that Activision Blizzard exposes to. Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) -- 5% “Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. It operates through Cable Communications, Cable Networks, Broadcast Television, Filmed Entertainment, and Theme Parks segments. The company also owns the Philadelphia Flyers, as well as the Wells Fargo Center arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and operates arena management-related businesses. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.”--Yahoo Finance Source: UOIG Spreadsheet Figure 42: Comparable Analysis Outcome Multiple EV/Revenue EV/Gross Profit EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/(EBITDA-Capex) Market Cap/Net Income = P/E Price Target Current Price Undervalued Implied Price Weight $ 24.153 0.00% $ 28.633 0.00% $ 158.726 0.00% $ 35.830 90.00% $ 36.698 0.00% $ 82.146 10.00% $40.46 36.33 11.37% Source: UOIG Projection Comcast Corporation was selected as a comparable and given a 5% weighting based on similar reasons as the Walt Disney Company. Particularly, Comcast also formed the alliance with Activision Blizzard to publish their movies, including the very first World of Warcraft, resulting that these two companies share certain risk together. Multiple Selection EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA was selected as the main metric to evaluate the company because EBITDA is considered as a proxy of free cash flow, which is crucially important for any company. EBITDA also takes out the difference in amortization and depreciation schedule. Taking all these factors into consideration, I decided to weight EV/EBITDA for 90% of the total weighting. UOIG 15 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 43: Estimated Revenue Breakdown by Platforms in Calendar Year 2024 P/E In terms of PV, the main reason why I selected this metric in the comparable analysis was that all the comparables, as well as Activision Blizzard, are very mature companies and P/E will be a good metric to use on well-established companies. However, P/E needs to take interest expense, tax rate, depreciation expense and amortization expense into consideration. Due to the variety in those items, P/E is not as good as the EV/EBITDA metric. Therefore, I decided to weight 10% on P/E. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (80%) Consolidation of Activision Blizzard and King Source: UOIG Projection Figure 44: Estimated Revenue Growth in Console Segment from 2017 to 2024 As the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment closed at Feb 2016 and from Q1 2016, the financial results of King Digital Entertainment will be consolidated into the financial statements published by Activision Blizzard. For projection purpose, I backup data from 2012 to 2015 to show the comparison between Activision Blizzard and King, and then consolidate the financial results together in order to identify the influence of King’s acquisition on Activision Blizzard’s financial statement. For instance, after the consolidation, the deferred revenue was projected to decrease as Days as Deferred Revenue Outstanding or as the percentage of total revenue due to the lower deferred revenue metric from King. Revenue Model Before the release of Q1 earning of 2016, the revenue of Activision Blizzard was being breakdown into different platforms, including Online, PC, Priorgeneration Console, Next-generation Console, Mobile and Other. As the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment closed at Feb 2016, Activision Blizzard decided to change the breakdown structure, by merging Online and PC together to PC2 and merging Prior-generation Console and Next-generation Console into Console. So I projected the revenue from each platform and summed them together to reach the total revenue. For each platform, the revenue growth has its particular trend and is projected based on different factor. Source: UOIG Projection Figure 45: Estimated Revenue Growth in PC2 Segment from 2017 to 2024 • PC2: The revenue growth of PC will be optimistic as the majority of Activision Blizzard’s top franchises will be beneficial from the tailwind of Esport and the increasing popularity of current and incoming franchises. Also the upcoming movies will assist the organic growth of PC2 revenu as well. However, the high growth potential will be partially offset by the declining popularity of the World of Warcraft. • Console: As 90% of the competitive gaming is performed on PC, the revenue growth of console segment will not be as fast as PC2 based on my projection. However, each time when the life cycle of new console kicks in, the revenue in this segment also will increase. With the potential benefit from visual reality technology, I believe the growth rate of Console segment will be closed to 3% going into perpetuity. Source: UOIG Projection • Total Mobile and Ancillary: This segment represents the biggest growth potential for Activision Blizzard as the industry of smart phone app developers is projected to growth at an average rate of 28.5% each year until 2021. King UOIG 16 University of Oregon Investment Group Figure 46: Estimated Revenue Growth in Mobile and Ancillary Segment from 2017 to 2024 Digital Entertainment was the No.1 market share holder in this industry, with a market share of 14.9%, and I believe it will help Activision Blizzard to conquer this new territory • Other: In this segment, revenue is generated from media networks, studios, and distribution businesses. As Activision Blizzard established its own studio and started to create movies based on its franchises, I expect that this segment will grow rapidly as movie blockbusters, at average, have been very successful during the last few years, especially for those franchises which already have user basis. Accordingly, this segment has the second highest growth rate into perpetuity. Net Working Capital Model: Source: UOIG Projection Figure 47: Estimated Cost of Good Sold from 2017 to 2024 (Millions) Depreciation The depreciation was projected by taking the consolidated historical trend as a starting point and then adjusted it as the percentage of revenue. Due to the fact that Activision Blizzard does not need too many depreciable assets for business operating purpose, the depreciation was projected to only trend up slightly until 2024 as follow the guideline provided by management team that capital expenditures will slightly increase. Capital Expenditure and Acquisitions The capital expenditure was projected to slightly increase due to the guidance form management that Activision Blizzard would continue to invest in highquality franchise creation and R&D research. Accordingly, the underlining assumption is that the company needs to spend some capital expenditures in order to keep up with the R&D investment. Source: UOIG Projection Figure 48: Estimated SG&A from 2017 to 2024 (Millions) The acquisition expense was not projected due to three primary factors. The acquisition was very rare to happen. The only acquisition conducted by Activision Blizzard was the acquisition of King Digital Entertainment Inc. during the last five years. Once an acquisition was reached, the revenue, as well as other financial metrics, needs to be reworked, resulting in increasing uncertainty and difficulty for projection purpose. Small acquisitions will likely have very slight impact on the evaluation. Therefore, I decided not to project any acquisition happening in the model. Inventory Inventory was projected to decrease as the business of Activision Blizzard swift from physical product to digital products, resulting in less inventory needed to satisfy customers. Also because of the booming of mobile app and gaming industry, Activision Blizzard was also going toward to this non-inventory industry. That being said, the inventory was projected to decrease before going into perpetuity. Discounted Cash Flow Model Cost of Goods Sold Source: UOIG Projection The cost of goods sold was predicted to decrease based on the fact that Activision Blizzard and its management team are determined to lower the overall cost and achieve high profitability. Therefore, I projected the cost of goods sold will decrease by 4.5% in the next 10 years before going to perpetuity. UOIG 17 University of Oregon Investment Group Selling, General and Administrative Costs Figure 49: Beta Analysis It was difficult to project the SG&A expenses due to the lack of guideline and various factors that could potentially affect the SG&A expenses. In 2014, one of the primary SG&A expense was relative to the acquisition of King. Because of the close of King’s acquisition and no acquisition being projected going forward, I decided to trend down the SG&A slightly, only decreasing by roughly 1.5% in the next 10 years. BETA Cash Adjusted Beta 1 Year Daily Beta 1.07 1.28 0.10 30.0% 3 Year Daily Beta 1.09 1.31 0.07 60.0% 5 Year Daily Beta 0.87 1.05 0.23 0.0% 3 Year Weekly Beta 1.13 1.36 0.16 0.0% 5 Year Weekly Beta 0.90 1.08 0.10 0.0% Vascek - Comps 1.21 1.45 - 0.0% Vasicek - ETF 1.28 1.54 - 0.0% Hamada - Comps 1.37 1.64 - 5.0% Hamada - ETF 1.30 1.57 - 5.0% Beta 1.330 The Beta was calculated by running the regression on Activision Blizzard’s stock against the return of the market, which is the S&P 500, for the one year daily, three year daily, five year daily, three year weekly and five year weekly. ESTIMATE SE Weighting FINAL BETA Source: UOIG Spreadsheet Figure 50: Final Price Target Comparable Price Target DCF Price Target Final Price Target Undervalued $40.46 $40.08 20% 80% $ 40.16 10.54% 100.00% Source: UOIG Spreadsheet Discounted Cash Flow Assumptions Overall the betas generated by running regressions against the S&P 500 had small standard errors, which represents consistency and high quality of a Beta. Accordingly, I decided to weight 60% on the Three-Year Daily Beta, which is the CFA standard and also has the smallest standard error. I weighted another 30% on One-Year Daily Beta since it has small standard error and reflect the current structure change better than the three-year daily Beta. The Three-Year Daily Hamada-ETF Beta and Hamada-Comps Beta both received 5% weighting in order to take the industrial trend into consideration. All Betas need to be adjusted by cash due to the massive non-operating cash hold by Activision Blizzard. After the adjustment, the final Beta for Activision Blizzard arrived at 1.330 Terminal Growth Rate The terminal growth rate was calculated by terminal WACC times the reinvestment rate in the terminal year, ending up reaching the terminal growth rate of 2.24%. Figure 52: Price Targets and Recommendation from Major Investment Banks Recommendation As the acquisition of Major League Gaming and King Digital Entertainment Inc and the establishment of Activision Blizzard Studio are both online, Activision Blizzard is well positioned to boost its top and bottom line tremendously in the next few years. Especially taking the consideration of massive successful franchises possessed by Activision Blizzard, we can be confident to predict that the company would enter the next period of growth with its fundamental valuefocus business model. With a 20% weighting assigned on comparable analysis and an 80% weighting on Discounted Cash Flow analysis, a target price of $40.16 was reached and represented an undervaluation of 10.54%. Source: Wall Street Journal Therefore, as both internal and external factors will play in the favor of Activision Blizzard, I highly believe in the long-term success of the company and recommend a Buy for both Tall Firs and DADCO portfolio. UOIG 18 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 1 – Comparable Analysis Comparables Analysis ATVI Activision Blizzard Inc. ($ in millions) Stock Characteristics Current Price Beta Max $103.26 1.10 Min $2.38 0.83 Median $60.76 1.03 Weight Avg. $48.03 1.02 EA Electronic Art TTWO Take-Two Interactive $36.33 1.10 50.00% $61.85 1.05 25.00% $34.18 1.07 ZNGA Zynga Inc 15.00% DIS Walt Disney Company CMCSA Comcast Corporation $2.38 0.83 5.00% $103.26 1.03 5.00% $60.76 0.97 Size Short-Term Debt Long-Term Debt Cash and Cash Equivalent Non-Controlling Interest Preferred Stock Diluted Basic Shares Market Capitalization Enterprise Value 4,563.00 51,515.00 5,628.00 4,130.00 2,444.12 172,523.54 200,380.52 1,070.00 111.26 2,220.47 1,150.47 3,229.00 932.97 20,341.51 17,112.51 434.10 3,214.40 2,573.60 300.00 537.95 27,505.97 28,880.87 4,078.00 5,384.00 744.58 27,050.65 25,744.65 3,229.00 328.88 20,341.51 17,112.51 1,215.00 111.26 3,802.99 2,587.99 1,070.00 932.97 2,220.47 1,150.47 4,563.00 12,773.00 4,269.00 4,130.00 1,670.77 172,523.54 189,720.54 4,119.00 51,515.00 5,628.00 1,870.00 2,444.12 148,504.52 200,380.52 Growth Expectations % Revenue Growth 2016E % Revenue Growth 2017E % EBITDA Growth 2016E % EBITDA Growth 2017E % EPS Growth 2016E % EPS Growth 2017E 34.62% 10.61% 141.10% 98.70% 49.64% 217.60% 4.50% 4.80% 8.90% 2.70% 0.00% 6.90% 6.90% 7.60% 14.00% 7.10% 13.60% 9.70% 9.38% 8.29% 37.62% 24.39% 12.44% 44.44% 34.62% 10.61% 45.39% 10.61% 49.64% 11.54% 6.90% 7.60% 14.00% 14.90% 14.90% 17.30% 18.10% 10.30% 34.00% 7.10% 14.70% 9.70% 4.50% 9.40% 141.10% 98.70% 0.00% 217.60% 7.70% 4.80% 8.90% 2.70% 13.60% 6.90% 6.8% 5.2% 10.2% 4.5% 12.6% 7.5% 72.83% 31.03% 33.32% 23.58% 16.51% .47% 5.65% 1.48% 48.80% 21.54% 30.81% 12.17% 62.34% 21.76% 25.35% 16.47% 68.80% 31.03% 32.74% 21.26% 72.83% 30.28% 33.32% 23.58% 48.80% 16.29% 18.57% 12.17% 70.98% 0.47% 5.65% 1.48% 45.02% 27.98% 30.81% 17.32% 16.51% 21.54% 33.26% 10.95% $2,749.00 0.28 2.11 62.08 0.00 $26.00 15.93 $178.09 0.02 0.16 37.44 $199.00 0.16 1.98 10.33 $26.00 62.08 $20.97 15.93 $0.00 - $448.00 0.09 1.00 38.85 $2,749.00 0.28 2.11 9.59 $79,284.00 $25,430.00 $17,076.00 $26,371.00 $9,784.00 $9,401.00 $731.10 $518.90 $3.40 $41.30 $10.80 $0.02 $4,844.00 $3,528.00 $1,467.00 $1,614.00 $1,142.00 $97.00 $9,770.07 $3,987.19 $2,451.36 $3,085.60 $1,550.72 $773.95 $6,278.53 $4,319.45 $1,948.51 $2,055.80 $1,334.77 $104.71 $4,844.00 $3,528.00 $1,467.00 $1,614.00 $1,142.00 $97.00 $1,799.00 $878.00 $293.00 $334.00 $219.00 $35.00 $731.10 $518.90 $3.40 $41.30 $10.80 $0.02 $56,489.00 $25,430.00 $15,806.00 $17,407.00 $9,784.00 $4,933.00 $79,284.00 $13,087.00 $17,076.00 $26,371.00 $8,683.00 $9,401.00 4.10x 15.31x 338.37x 27.86x 27.87x 205.60x 1.44x 2.22x 8.83x 7.60x 8.66x 17.10x 2.53x 4.85x 11.73x 10.60x 11.81x 17.63x 2.66x 4.63x 59.98x 12.34x 13.34x 45.82x 4.10x 5.96x 13.21x 12.52x 13.20x 20.27x 3.53x 4.85x 11.66x 10.60x 11.28x 17.81x 1.44x 2.95x 8.83x 7.75x 8.66x 17.37x 1.57x 2.22x 338.37x 27.86x 27.87x 205.60x 3.36x 7.46x 12.00x 10.90x 15.21x 17.63x 2.53x 15.31x 11.73x 7.60x 11.81x 17.10x Profitability Margins Gross Margin EBIT Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin Credit Metrics Interest Expense Debt/EV Leverage Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Operating Results Revenue Gross Profit EBIT EBITDA Net Income Capital Expenditures Multiples EV/Revenue EV/Gross Profit EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/(EBITDA-Capex) Market Cap/Net Income = P/E UOIG 19 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 2 – Revenue Model Revenue Model In millions PC2 Q1 2011A 2012A 1639.00 1661.00 2013A 2014A 2015A Q2 03/31/2016A 06/30/2016E Q3 Q4 09/30/2016E 12/31/2016E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 1252.00 1418.00 1499.00 400.00 462.50 430.80 499.10 1792.40 2053.61 2270.74 2465.41 2627.46 2773.89 2914.61 3047.90 1.34% (24.62%) 13.26% 5.71% 3.63% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 19.57% 14.57% 10.57% 8.57% 6.57% 5.57% 5.07% 4.57% 3179.66 4.32% 32.17% 32.14% 27.49% 32.40% 32.08% 24.31% 28.55% 29.43% 29.84% 30.08% 30.09% 29.99% 29.85% 29.67% 29.51% 2150.00 2391.00 765.00 617.70 455.70 774.61 2613.00 2816.42 2993.42 3151.62 3286.66 3411.06 3531.63 3647.64 3758.34 (9.63%) 11.21% .92% 10.50% 8.50% 10.50% 9.28% 7.78% 6.28% 5.28% 4.28% 3.78% 3.53% 3.28% 3.03% 51.27% 52.58% 43.27% 33.93% 37.73% 41.62% 40.37% 39.34% 38.45% 37.64% 36.88% 36.17% 35.51% 34.88% 2006.01 2206.61 2416.24 2633.70 2857.57 3086.17 10.50% 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 25.27% 26.12% 26.97% 27.82% 28.64% % Growth 11.25% % of Total Revenue 34.47% 34.21% 27.32% Console Total 2439.00 2186.00 2379.00 % Growth 4.68% (10.37%) 8.83% 45.02% 51.91% 48.77% 703.00 629.00 433.00 418.00 243.00 226.80 340.60 636.85 1447.25 1628.16 1815.39 68.18% (10.53%) (31.16%) (3.46%) 182.56% 320.00% 160.00% 135.00% 246.23% 12.50% 11.50% 9.82% 8.96% 16.70% 15.89% 25.36% 31.02% 23.05% 23.34% 23.86% 24.47% 407.00 356.00 47.00 120.38 116.00 142.50 425.88 479.12 529.43 574.43 611.77 648.47 684.14 718.35 750.67 26.01% (12.53%) (2.08%) 5.60% 45.00% 25.00% 19.63% 12.50% 10.50% 8.50% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 6.94% 6.78% 6.87% 6.96% 7.01% 7.01% 7.01% 7.01% 6.99% 6.97% $2,053.06 $6,278.53 $6,977.30 $7,608.98 11.13% 9.05% % of Total Revenue Total Mobile and Ancillary % Growth % of Total Revenue 51.29% 418.00 10.58% 8.79% 14.48% 13.72% Other 259.00 306.00 323.00 % Growth 5.56% 18.15% 5.56% 5.45% 6.30% 7.05% % of Total Revenue Total Revenue % Growth 7.63% 3.23% 8.43% 8.64% $4,755.00 $4,856.00 $4,583.00 $4,408.00 $4,664.00 $1,455.00 $1,427.38 $1,343.10 - - - 6.93% 2.12% (5.62%) 9.23% (3.82%) 5.81% - 34.62% $8,197.47 $8,732.50 $9,249.66 $9,764.08 $10,271.45 $10,774.84 7.73% 6.53% 5.92% 5.56% 5.20% 4.90% ARPS: Average Revenue per Subscribers. It is calculated as the average of four quarters in a fiscal year King Digital Entertainment Mobile and ancillary % Growth 63.90 164.41 1884.30 - 157.29% 1046.10% 2269.40 2011.00 542.23 469.44 486.94 447.17 1945.78 20.44% (11.39%) (3.00%) (4.00%) (3.00%) (3.00%) (3.24%) UOIG 20 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 3 – Working Capital Model Days in Year 366 365 365 365 Activision Blizzard Total Revenue Current Assets Accounts Receivable Days Sales Outstanding A/R % of Revenue Inventory Days Inventory Outstanding % of Revenue Short-term Investment Days Short-term Investment Outstanding % of Revenue Software Development Days Software Development Outstanding % of Revenue Intellectual Property Licneses Days IPL Outstanding % of Revenue Deferred Income Taxes Days Deferred Income Taxes Outstanding % of Revenue Other Current Assets Days Other Current Assets Outstanding % of Revenue Total Current Assets % of Revenue Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Days Payable Outstanding % of Revenue Deferred Revenue Days Deferred Revenue Outstanding % of Revenue Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities % of Revenue Current Portion of Long-term Liability % of Revenue Total Current Liabilities % of Revenue Current Ratio 366 365 365 365 King Digital Entertainment Working Capital Model ($ in millions) Days in Year 2013A 2014A 2015A $4,856.00 $4,583.00 $4,408.00 $4,664.00 707.00 515.00 659.00 679.00 53.29 41.02 54.57 53.14 14.56% 11.24% 14.95% 14.56% 209.00 171.00 123.00 128.00 49.47 43.86 31.29 31.36 4.30% 3.73% 2.79% 2.74% 416.00 33.00 10.00 8.00 31.35 2.63 0.83 0.63 8.57% .72% .23% .17% 164.00 367.00 452.00 336.00 12.36 29.23 37.43 26.30 3.38% 8.01% 10.25% 7.20% 11.00 11.00 5.00 30.00 0.83 0.88 0.41 2.35 .23% .24% .11% .64% 487.00 321.00 36.71 25.57 10.03% 7.00% 321.00 413.00 444.00 383.00 24.19 32.89 36.76 29.97 6.61% 9.01% 10.07% 8.21% $2,315.00 $1,831.00 $1,693.00 $1,564.00 47.67% 39.95% 38.41% 33.53% 343.00 355.00 325.00 284.00 81.41 91.06 82.67 69.57 7.06% 7.75% 7.37% 6.09% 1657.00 1389.00 1797.00 1702.00 124.89 110.62 148.80 133.20 34.12% 30.31% 40.77% 36.49% 652.00 636.00 625.00 625.00 13.43% 13.88% 14.18% 13.40% 25 0.55% $2,652.00 $2,405.00 $2,747.00 $2,611.00 54.61% 52.48% 62.32% 55.98% 87.29% 76.13% 61.63% 59.90% ($ in millions) Total Revenue Current Assets Accounts Receivable Days Sales Outstanding A/R % of Revenue Total Current Assets % of Revenue Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Days Payable Outstanding % of Revenue Income Tax Payable Days Charges Outstanding % of Revenue Other Liabilities % of Revenue Total Current Liabilities % of Revenue Current Ratio 366 365 365 365 Consolidate Working Capital Model 2012A Days in Year Working Capital Model 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A $164.41 $1,880.00 $2,261.00 $2,011.00 33.40 74.35 20.32% $33.40 20.32% 218.26 42.37 11.61% $218.26 11.61% 332.14 53.62 14.69% $332.14 14.69% 197.53 35.85 9.82% $197.53 9.82% 31.94 19.43% 2.05 1.25% 39.67 24.13% $73.66 44.80% 172.10 108.68 9.15% 118.72 74.97 6.31% 317.29 16.88% $608.11 32.35% 137.63 71.57 6.09% 232.63 120.97 10.29% 404.58 17.89% $774.84 34.27% 101.32 60.73 5.04% 167.57 100.44 8.33% 329.18 16.37% $598.07 29.74% 45.34% 35.89% 42.87% 33.03% ($ in millions) Total Revenue 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A $5,020.41 $6,463.00 $6,669.00 $6,675.00 Current Assets Accounts Receivable 740.40 733.26 991.14 876.53 Days Sales Outstanding A/R 53.98 41.41 54.25 47.93 % of Revenue 14.75% 11.35% 14.86% 13.13% Inventory 209.00 171.00 123.00 128.00 Days Inventory Outstanding 31.19 21.01 22.26 % of Revenue 4.16% 2.65% 1.84% 1.92% Short-term Investment 416.00 33.00 10.00 8.00 Days Short-term Investment Outstanding30.33 1.86 0.55 0.44 % of Revenue 8.29% .51% .15% .12% Software Development 164.00 367.00 452.00 336.00 Days Software Development Outstanding11.96 20.73 24.74 18.37 % of Revenue 3.27% 5.68% 6.78% 5.03% Intellectual Property Licneses 11.00 11.00 5.00 30.00 Days IPL Outstanding 0.80 0.62 0.27 1.64 % of Revenue .22% .17% .07% .45% Deferred Income Taxes 487.00 321.00 Days Deferred Income Taxes Outstanding36.71 25.57 % of Revenue 9.70% 4.97% Other Current Assets 321.00 413.00 444.00 383.00 Days Other Current Assets Outstanding 23.40 23.32 24.30 20.94 % of Revenue 6.39% 6.39% 6.66% 5.74% Total Current Assets $2,348.40 $2,049.26 $2,025.14 $1,761.53 % of Revenue 46.78% 31.71% 30.37% 26.39% Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 374.94 527.10 462.63 385.32 Days Payable Outstanding 96.15 79.02 67.01 % of Revenue 7.47% 8.16% 6.94% 5.77% Deferred Revenue 1657.00 1389.00 1797.00 1702.00 Days Deferred Revenue Outstanding 120.80 78.44 98.35 93.07 % of Revenue 33.01% 21.49% 26.95% 25.50% Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities 654.05 754.72 857.63 792.57 % of Revenue 13.03% 11.68% 12.86% 11.87% Current Portion of Long-term Liability 39.67 342.29 404.58 329.18 % of Revenue .79% 5.30% 6.07% 4.93% Total Current Liabilities $2,652.00 $2,405.00 $2,747.00 $2,611.00 % of Revenue 54.61% 52.48% 62.32% 55.98% Current Ratio 88.55% 85.21% 73.72% 67.47% UOIG 21 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 4 – Working Capital Model (Continue) Days in Year 365 366 365 365 365 Working Capital Model ($ in millions) Total Revenue Current Assets Accounts Receivable Days Sales Outstanding A/R % of Revenue Inventory Days Inventory Outstanding % of Revenue Short-term Investment Days Short-term Investment Outstanding % of Revenue Software Development Days Software Development Outstanding % of Revenue Intellectual Property Licneses Days IPL Outstanding % of Revenue Deferred Income Taxes Days Deferred Income Taxes Outstanding % of Revenue Other Current Assets Days Other Current Assets Outstanding % of Revenue Total Current Assets % of Revenue Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Days Payable Outstanding % of Revenue Deferred Revenue Days Deferred Revenue Outstanding % of Revenue Accrued Expenses and Other Liabilities % of Revenue Current Portion of Long-term Liability % of Revenue Total Current Liabilities % of Revenue 2011A 2012A 2014A 2015A 92 92 91 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 03/31/2016A 06/30/2016E 09/30/2016E 12/31/2016E 366 2016E 365 2017E 365 2018E 365 2019E 366 2020E 365 2021E 365 2022E 365 2023E 366 2024E $4,755.00 $4,856.00 $4,583.00 $4,408.00 $4,664.00 $1,455.00 $1,427.38 $1,343.10 $2,053.06 $6,278.53 $6,944.90 $7,536.53 $8,078.05 $8,559.88 $9,017.72 $9,453.35 $9,874.92 $10,285.44 649.00 707.00 515.00 659.00 679.00 49.82 53.29 41.02 54.57 53.14 13.65% 14.56% 11.24% 14.95% 14.56% 144.00 209.00 171.00 123.00 128.00 32.36 49.47 43.86 31.29 31.36 3.03% 4.30% 3.73% 2.79% 2.74% 360.00 416.00 33.00 10.00 8.00 27.63 31.35 2.63 0.83 0.63 7.57% 8.57% .72% .23% .17% 137.00 164.00 367.00 452.00 336.00 10.52 12.36 29.23 37.43 26.30 2.88% 3.38% 8.01% 10.25% 7.20% 22.00 11.00 11.00 5.00 30.00 1.69 0.83 0.88 0.41 2.35 .46% .23% .24% .11% .64% 507.00 487.00 321.00 38.92 36.71 25.57 10.66% 10.03% 7.00% 396.00 321.00 413.00 444.00 383.00 30.40 24.19 32.89 36.76 29.97 8.33% 6.61% 9.01% 10.07% 8.21% $2,215.00 $2,315.00 $1,831.00 $1,693.00 $1,564.00 46.58% 47.67% 39.95% 38.41% 33.53% 383.00 23.95 26.32% 102.44 20.00 7.04% 296.00 18.51 20.34% 354.00 22.14 24.33% $1,135.44 78.04% 365.44 23.55 25.60% 98.76 20.50 6.92% 302.54 19.50 21.20% 343.66 22.15 24.08% $1,110.40 77.79% 338.02 23.15 25.17% 92.33 20.50 6.87% 262.78 18.00 19.57% 321.18 22.00 23.91% $1,014.31 75.52% 513.35 513.35 531.34 535.31 529.51 536.17 541.69 541.96 22.75 29.93 27.93 25.93 23.93 22.93 21.93 20.93 25.00% 8.18% 7.65% 7.10% 6.55% 6.26% 6.01% 5.73% 139.65 139.65 150.05 158.09 164.44 168.54 172.59 175.89 20.00 26.02 25.52 25.02 24.52 24.02 23.52 23.02 6.80% 2.22% 2.16% 2.10% 2.04% 1.97% 1.91% 1.86% 383.54 383.54 433.02 478.17 521.37 560.32 604.26 646.40 17.00 22.36 22.76 23.16 23.56 23.96 24.46 24.96 18.68% 6.11% 6.24% 6.34% 6.45% 6.55% 6.70% 6.84% 507.62 507.62 568.75 623.39 674.82 720.14 765.67 807.84 22.50 29.59 29.89 30.19 30.49 30.79 30.99 31.19 24.73% 8.09% 8.19% 8.27% 8.35% 8.41% 8.49% 8.55% $1,544.17 $1,544.17 $1,683.15 $1,794.96 $1,890.14 $1,985.17 $2,084.21 $2,172.09 75.21% 24.59% 24.24% 23.82% 23.40% 23.19% 23.11% 22.98% 539.07 19.93 5.46% 178.52 22.52 1.81% 688.75 25.46 6.97% 849.28 31.39 8.60% $2,255.63 22.84% 559.95 19.93 5.44% 180.08 22.02 1.75% 729.48 25.96 7.09% 887.79 31.59 8.63% $2,357.30 22.92% 390.00 343.00 355.00 325.00 284.00 87.65 81.41 91.06 82.67 69.57 8.20% 7.06% 7.75% 7.37% 6.09% 1472.00 1657.00 1389.00 1797.00 1702.00 112.99 124.89 110.62 148.80 133.20 30.96% 34.12% 30.31% 40.77% 36.49% 694.00 652.00 636.00 625.00 625.00 14.60% 13.43% 13.88% 14.18% 13.40% 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% .55% 0.00% 0.00% $2,556.00 $2,652.00 $2,405.00 $2,747.00 $2,611.00 53.75% 54.61% 52.48% 62.32% 55.98% 150.00 29.28 10.31% 1207.00 75.49 82.96% 901.00 61.92% 64.00 4.40% $2,322.00 159.59% 144.52 30.00 10.13% 1117.08 72.00 78.26% 877.84 61.50% 262.64 4.60% $2,402.08 168.29% 128.36 28.50 9.56% 1065.72 73.00 79.35% 812.58 60.50% 241.76 4.50% $2,248.41 167.40% 199.01 199.01 206.85 209.65 209.10 204.75 206.79 207.67 28.50 37.18 35.18 33.18 31.18 29.18 28.18 27.18 9.69% 3.17% 2.98% 2.78% 2.59% 2.39% 2.29% 2.20% 1669.52 1669.52 1794.69 1885.63 1954.72 1995.49 2058.58 2106.22 74.00 97.32 94.32 91.32 88.32 85.32 83.32 81.32 79.50% 26.59% 25.84% 25.02% 24.20% 23.31% 22.83% 22.28% 1221.57 1221.57 1330.38 1421.11 1498.98 1562.71 1637.28 1706.92 59.50% 19.46% 19.16% 18.86% 18.56% 18.26% 18.16% 18.06% 328.49 328.49 342.52 349.09 349.94 345.13 345.55 343.34 4.00% 5.23% 4.93% 4.63% 4.33% 4.03% 3.83% 3.63% $3,418.58 $3,418.58 $3,674.44 $3,865.48 $4,012.74 $4,108.08 $4,248.20 $4,364.16 166.51% 54.45% 52.91% 51.29% 49.67% 47.99% 47.11% 46.17% 207.54 26.18 2.10% 2146.04 79.32 21.73% 1773.17 17.96% 338.90 3.43% $4,465.64 45.22% 205.92 25.18 2.00% 2172.94 77.32 21.13% 1836.60 17.86% 332.42 3.23% $4,547.88 44.22% 48.90% 46.23% 45.11% 50.51% 51.83% % of Accounts Receivable Quick 85% % of Inventory Quick 65% Current Ratio 2013A 91 86.66% 87.29% 76.13% 61.63% 59.90% 45.17% 45.17% 45.81% 46.44% 47.10% 48.32% 49.06% 49.77% UOIG 22 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 5 – Discounted Cash Flow Model King Digital Entertainment Activision Blizzard Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in millions) 2013A 2014A 2015A ($ in millions) Consolidate Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 2013A 2014A 2015A ($ in millions) 2013A 2014A 2015A Total Revenue $1,885.00 $2,262.00 $2,014.00 Total Revenue $4,583.00 $4,408.00 $4,664.00 Total Revenue $6,468.00 $6,670.00 % YoY Growth 1044.92% 20.00% (10.96%) % YoY Growth (5.62%) (3.82%) 5.81% % YoY Growth 28.83% 3.12% .12% 577.99 701.90 608.94 1423.00 1435.00 1490.00 Cost of Goods Sold $2,000.99 $2,136.90 $2,098.94 Cost of Goods Sold % Revenue 30.66% 31.03% 30.24% $1,307.01 $1,560.10 $1,405.06 69.34% 68.97% 69.76% 473.43 639.64 523.23 25.12% 28.28% 25.98% 6.36 14.84 27.35 % Revenue .34% .66% 1.36% Research and Development 110.50 177.93 198.44 Gross Profit Gross Margin Selling General and Administrative Expense % Revenue Depreciation and Amortization % Revenue Cost of Goods Sold % Revenue Gross Profit Gross Margin Selling General and Administrative Expense % Revenue Depreciation and Amortization % Revenue Research and Development % Revenue 31.05% 32.55% 31.95% $3,160.00 $2,973.00 $3,174.00 68.95% 67.45% 68.05% 1096.00 1129.00 1114.00 23.91% 25.61% 23.89% 108.00 90.00 95.00 2.36% 2.04% 2.04% 584.00 571.00 646.00 % Revenue Gross Profit Gross Margin Selling General and Administrative Expense % Revenue $6,678.00 30.94% 32.04% 31.43% $4,467.01 $4,533.10 $4,579.06 69.06% 67.96% 68.57% $1,569.43 $1,768.64 $1,637.23 24.26% 26.52% 24.52% Depreciation and Amortization $114.36 $104.84 $122.35 % Revenue 1.77% 1.57% 1.83% Research and Development $694.50 $748.93 $844.44 12.65% 5.86% 7.87% 9.85% 12.74% 12.95% 13.85% 10.74% 11.23% Other Expense - - - Other Expense - - - Other Expense - - - % Revenue - - - % Revenue - - - % Revenue - - - Earnings Before Interest & Taxes $716.72 $727.69 $656.04 Earnings Before Interest & Taxes % Revenue 38.02% 32.17% 32.57% % Revenue Interest Expense - - - Interest Expense % Revenue - - - % Revenue Non-Operating Loss (Income) % Revenue Earnings Before Taxes 1.73 (42.35) (21.19) .09% (1.87%) (1.05%) 714.99 770.04 677.23 37.93% 34.04% 33.63% 146.68 193.42 159.01 20.51% 25.12% 23.48% Net Income $568.31 $576.62 $518.22 Net Margin 30.15% 25.49% 25.73% 6.36 14.84 27.35 % Revenue Less Taxes (Benefits) Tax Rate Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization Add Back: Interest Expense*(1-Tax Rate) $1,372.00 $1,183.00 $1,319.00 29.94% 26.84% 28.28% 53.00 202.00 198.00 1.16% 4.58% 4.25% Net Interest (Income) - - - Net Interest (Income) % Revenue - - - % Revenue 3.03% 2.96% 1.73 (42.35) (21.19) .03% (.63%) (.32%) 2,033.99 1,751.04 1,798.23 % Revenue 31.45% 26.25% 26.93% 309.00 146.00 229.00 455.68 339.42 388.01 23.43% 14.88% 20.43% 22.40% 19.38% 21.58% Net Income $1,010.00 $835.00 $892.00 Net Income $1,578.31 $1,411.62 $1,410.22 Net Margin 22.04% 18.94% 19.13% Net Margin 24.40% 21.16% 21.12% Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization 108.00 90.00 95.00 Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization 114.36 104.84 122.35 Add Back: Interest Expense*(1-Tax Rate) 40.58 171.94 157.55 Add Back: Interest Expense*(1-Tax Rate) $1,158.58 $1,096.94 $1,144.55 Less Taxes (Benefits) Tax Rate 30.49% 26.15% 27.09% % Revenue 25.28% 24.89% 24.54% 218.26 332.14 197.53 Current Assets 1,831.00 1,693.00 1,564.00 11.58% 14.68% 9.81% % Revenue 39.95% 38.41% 598.07 .82% Earnings Before Taxes % Revenue 29.70% $198.00 % Revenue 1,121.00 Operating Cash Flow 774.84 $202.00 24.04% $545.57 34.25% $53.00 981.00 $591.46 608.11 29.58% Interest Expense 22.25% $574.67 32.26% $1,975.04 28.65% 1,319.00 Operating Cash Flow % Revenue $1,910.69 32.29% 28.78% - Current Liabilities $2,088.72 % Revenue % Revenue - % Revenue Earnings Before Interest & Taxes Earnings Before Taxes - Current Assets % Revenue Less Taxes (Benefits) Tax Rate 40.58 171.94 157.55 $1,733.25 $1,688.40 $1,690.12 % Revenue 26.80% 25.31% 25.31% Current Assets 2,049.26 2,025.14 1,761.53 33.53% % Revenue 31.68% 30.36% 26.38% Operating Cash Flow Current Liabilities 2,405.00 2,747.00 2,611.00 Current Liabilities 3,013.11 3,521.84 3,209.07 % Revenue 52.48% 62.32% 55.98% % Revenue 46.58% 52.80% 48.05% Net Working Capital ($963.85) ($1,496.70) ($1,447.54) % Revenue (91.30%) (29.85%) (28.67%) ($289.85) ($532.85) $49.16 74.00 107.00 111.00 1.14% 1.60% 1.66% Net Working Capital ($389.85) ($442.70) ($400.54) Net Working Capital ($574.00) ($1,054.00) ($1,047.00) % Revenue (20.68%) (19.57%) (19.89%) % Revenue (12.52%) (23.91%) (22.45%) ($52.85) ($52.85) $42.16 ($237.00) ($480.00) $7.00 Change in Working Capital 74.00 107.00 111.00 Capital Expenditures 1.61% 2.43% 2.38% % Revenue Acquisitions - 17.96 3649.57 % Revenue - .27% 54.65% Change in Working Capital Change in Working Capital Capital Expenditures - - - Capital Expenditures % Revenue - - - % Revenue Acquisitions - 17.96 44.57 % Revenue - .79% 2.21% Acquisitions - - 3605.00 % Revenue - - 77.29% UOIG 23 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 6 – Discounted Cash Flow Model (Continue) Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in millions) Total Revenue 2011A 2012A $4,755.00 2013A 2014A 2015A $4,856.00 $4,583.00 $4,408.00 $4,664.00 Q1A Q2E Q3E Q4E 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E $1,455.00 $1,427.38 $1,343.10 $2,053.06 $6,278.53 $6,977.30 $7,608.98 $8,197.47 $8,732.50 $9,249.66 $9,764.08 $10,271.45 $10,774.84 % YoY Growth 6.93% 2.12% (5.62%) (3.82%) 5.81% - - - - 34.62% 11.13% 9.05% 7.73% 6.53% 5.92% 5.56% 5.20% 4.90% Cost of Goods Sold 1624.00 1542.00 1423.00 1435.00 1490.00 466.12 443.20 414.35 635.42 $1,959.09 2,142.24 2,298.14 2,434.89 2,550.15 2,654.92 2,763.52 2,866.04 2,963.40 % Revenue Gross Profit Gross Margin Selling General and Administrative Expense % Revenue Depreciation and Amortization % Revenue Research and Development % Revenue 34.15% 31.75% 31.05% 32.55% 31.95% 32.04% 31.05% 30.85% 30.95% 31.20% 30.70% 30.20% 29.70% 29.20% 28.70% 28.30% 27.90% 27.50% $3,131.00 $3,314.00 $3,160.00 $2,973.00 $3,174.00 $988.88 $984.18 $928.75 $1,417.63 $4,319.45 $4,835.06 $5,310.84 $5,762.58 $6,182.35 $6,594.73 $7,000.56 $7,405.41 $7,811.44 65.85% 68.25% 68.95% 67.45% 68.05% 67.96% 68.95% 69.15% 69.05% 68.80% 69.30% 69.80% 70.30% 70.80% 71.30% 71.70% 72.10% 72.50% 1001.00 1139.00 1096.00 1129.00 1114.00 328.00 328.30 315.63 482.47 1,454.39 1,602.31 1,732.15 1,849.72 1,952.98 2,050.14 2,144.64 2,235.53 2,323.54 21.05% 23.46% 23.91% 25.61% 23.89% 22.54% 23.00% 23.50% 23.50% 23.16% 22.96% 22.76% 22.56% 22.36% 22.16% 21.96% 21.76% 21.56% 148.00 120.00 108.00 90.00 95.00 24.88 24.55 23.37 34.49 107.29 121.33 134.59 147.46 159.71 171.94 184.43 197.10 209.99 3.11% 2.47% 2.36% 2.04% 2.04% 1.71% 1.72% 1.74% 1.68% 1.71% 1.74% 1.77% 1.80% 1.83% 1.86% 1.89% 1.92% 1.95% 629.00 604.00 584.00 571.00 646.00 175.00 186.99 177.29 269.98 809.25 913.27 1,011.17 1,105.77 1,195.41 1,284.70 1,356.15 1,426.62 1,496.54 13.23% 12.44% 12.74% 12.95% 13.85% 12.03% 13.10% 13.20% 13.15% 12.89% 13.09% 13.29% 13.49% 13.69% 13.89% 13.89% 13.89% 13.89% Other Expense 25.00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - % Revenue .53% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Earnings Before Interest & Taxes $1,328.00 $1,451.00 $1,372.00 $1,183.00 $1,319.00 $461.00 $444.34 $412.47 $630.70 $1,948.51 $2,198.16 $2,432.93 $2,659.62 $2,874.25 $3,087.95 $3,315.34 $3,546.16 $3,781.37 27.93% 29.88% 29.94% 26.84% 28.28% 31.68% 31.13% 30.71% 30.72% 31.03% 31.50% 31.97% 32.44% 32.91% 33.38% 33.95% 34.52% 35.09% Interest Expense - - 53.00 202.00 198.00 52.00 53.53 51.71 79.04 236.28 234.67 195.04 144.54 84.12 15.10 - - - % Revenue - - 1.16% 4.58% 4.25% 3.57% 3.75% 3.85% 3.85% 3.76% 3.36% 2.56% 1.76% .96% .16% - - - - - % Revenue Net Interest (Income) (3.00) (7.00) - - - - - - % Revenue (.06%) (.14%) - - - - - - Earnings Before Taxes 1,331.00 1,458.00 1,319.00 981.00 1,121.00 409.00 390.82 360.76 551.66 1,712.23 1,963.49 2,237.89 2,515.08 2,790.13 3,072.84 3,315.34 3,546.16 3,781.37 % Revenue 27.99% 30.02% 28.78% 22.25% 24.04% 28.11% 27.38% 26.86% 26.87% 27.27% 28.14% 29.41% 30.68% 31.95% 33.22% 33.95% 34.52% 35.09% 246.00 309.00 309.00 146.00 229.00 73.00 91.84 82.97 129.64 377.46 440.70 511.24 584.62 659.72 738.85 807.11 873.94 943.25 18.48% 21.19% 23.43% 14.88% 20.43% 17.85% 23.50% 23.00% 23.50% 22.04% 22.44% 22.84% 23.24% 23.64% 24.04% 24.34% 24.64% 24.94% Net Income $1,085.00 $1,149.00 $1,010.00 $835.00 $892.00 $336.00 $298.97 $277.78 $422.02 $1,334.77 $1,522.79 $1,726.65 $1,930.46 $2,130.42 $2,333.99 $2,508.23 $2,672.22 $2,838.12 Net Margin 22.82% 23.66% 22.04% 18.94% 19.13% 23.09% 20.95% 20.68% 20.56% 21.26% 21.82% 22.69% 23.55% 24.40% 25.23% 25.69% 26.02% 26.34% 148.00 120.00 108.00 90.00 95.00 24.88 24.55 23.37 34.49 107.29 121.33 134.59 147.46 159.71 171.94 184.43 197.10 209.99 40.58 171.94 157.55 42.72 40.95 39.82 60.47 183.95 182.00 150.48 110.95 64.23 11.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 Less Taxes (Benefits) Tax Rate Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization Add Back: Interest Expense*(1-Tax Rate) Operating Cash Flow - - - - - - - - - - $1,233.00 $1,269.00 $1,158.58 $1,096.94 $1,144.55 $403.60 $364.47 $340.97 $516.98 $1,626.02 $1,826.12 $2,011.73 $2,188.86 $2,354.35 $2,517.40 $2,692.66 $2,869.32 $3,048.11 % Revenue 25.93% 26.13% 25.28% 24.89% 24.54% 27.74% 25.53% 25.39% 25.18% 25.90% 26.17% 26.44% 26.70% 26.96% 27.22% 27.58% 27.93% 28.29% Current Assets 2,215.00 2,315.00 1,831.00 1,693.00 1,564.00 1,135.44 1,110.40 1,014.31 1,544.17 1,544.17 1,690.03 1,810.12 1,914.78 2,020.61 2,131.86 2,236.10 2,337.33 2,459.09 % Revenue 46.58% 47.67% 39.95% 38.41% 33.53% 78.04% 77.79% 75.52% 75.21% 24.59% 24.22% 23.79% 23.36% 23.14% 23.05% 22.90% 22.76% 22.82% Current Liabilities 2,556.00 2,652.00 2,405.00 2,747.00 2,611.00 2,322.00 2,402.08 2,248.41 3,418.58 3,418.58 3,690.23 3,899.87 4,067.86 4,185.36 4,350.32 4,498.88 4,634.65 4,752.42 % Revenue 53.75% 54.61% 52.48% 62.32% 55.98% 159.59% 168.29% 167.40% 166.51% 54.45% 52.89% 51.25% 49.62% 47.93% 47.03% 46.08% 45.12% 44.11% ($341.00) ($337.00) ($574.00) ($1,054.00) ($1,047.00) ($1,186.56) ($1,291.68) ($1,234.11) ($1,874.41) ($1,874.41) ($2,000.21) ($2,089.75) ($2,153.08) ($2,164.74) ($2,218.46) ($2,262.79) ($2,297.32) ($2,293.33) (7.17%) (6.94%) (12.52%) (23.91%) (22.45%) (81.55%) (90.49%) (91.88%) (91.30%) (29.85%) (28.67%) (27.46%) (26.27%) (24.79%) (23.98%) (23.17%) (22.37%) (21.28%) $4.00 ($237.00) ($480.00) $7.00 ($139.56) ($105.13) $57.58 ($640.31) ($827.41) ($125.79) ($89.54) ($63.34) ($11.66) ($53.71) ($44.33) ($34.53) 111.00 24.01 24.27 22.56 33.88 104.71 119.85 134.51 149.01 163.10 177.39 192.14 207.26 222.80 2.07% Net Working Capital % Revenue Change in Working Capital Capital Expenditures % Revenue 72.00 73.00 74.00 107.00 $3.99 1.51% 1.50% 1.61% 2.43% 2.38% 1.65% 1.70% 1.68% 1.65% 1.67% 1.72% 1.77% 1.82% 1.87% 1.92% 1.97% 2.02% Acquisitions - - - - 3605.00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - % Revenue - - - - 77.29% - - - - - - - - - - - - - $1,161.00 $1,192.00 $1,321.58 $1,469.94 ($2,578.45) Unlevered Free Cash Flow Discounted Free Cash Flow $519.15 $445.33 $260.83 $1,123.41 $519.15 $435.34 $249.26 $1,049.49 Discount Period EBITDA EBITDA Margin EBITDA Growth 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 $2,348.72 $1,832.06 $1,966.76 $2,103.19 $2,202.91 $2,393.73 $2,544.85 $2,696.59 $2,821.32 $1,563.04 $1,532.40 $1,496.54 $1,431.52 $1,420.58 $1,379.25 $1,334.70 $1,275.30 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75 7.75 8.75 $1,476.00 $1,571.00 $1,480.00 $1,273.00 $1,414.00 $485.88 $468.89 $435.84 $665.19 $2,055.80 $2,319.49 $2,567.52 $2,807.08 $3,033.96 $3,259.89 $3,499.77 $3,743.26 $3,991.36 31.04% 32.35% 32.29% 28.88% 30.32% 33.39% 32.85% 32.45% 32.40% 32.74% 33.24% 33.74% 34.24% 34.74% 35.24% 35.84% 36.44% 37.04% 6.44% (5.79%) (13.99%) 11.08% NA NA NA NA 45.39% 12.83% 10.69% 9.33% 8.08% 7.45% 7.36% 6.96% 6.63% UOIG 24 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 7 – DCF Assumption Discounted Free Cash Flow Assumptions Tax Rate Considerations 24.94% Terminal Growth Rate Risk Free Rate 2.26% 1.83% Terminal Value Cash Adjusted Beta 1.33 PV of Terminal Value Market Risk Premium 6.45% Sum of PV Free Cash Flows 30,689 Avg. Industry Debt / Equity 13,872 Avg. Industry Tax Rate 12,209 Current Reinvestment Rate 9.50% 19.58% 264.91% % Equity 86.90% Firm Value 26,082 Reinvestment Rate in Year 2024E 21.93% % Debt 13.10% Total Debt 4,119 Implied Return on Capital in Perpetuity 10.31% 5,384 Terminal Value as a % of Total 53.2% 31,372 Implied 2016E EBITDA Multiple 12.7x Cost of Debt 4.47% Cash & Cash Equivalents CAPM 10.43% Market Capitalization WACC 9.50% Fully Diluted Shares Terminal Risk Free Rate 745 2.76% Implied Price $42.13 Terminal CAPM 11.36% Current Price $36.33 Terminal WACC 10.31% Undervalued 15.98% Implied Multiple in Year 2024E Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in Year 2024E 4.0x 2.53% Additional Discounted Free Cash Flow Assumptions Operating Cash % of Rev. Operating Cash Estimate Comparable Price Target DCF Price Target Final Price Target Undervalued 2.00% Non-Operating Cash 5,290.72 93.28 Research Asset (5-year Average) $40.46 $42.13 20% 80% $ 41.80 15.06% 100.00% 861.45 UOIG 25 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 8 – Sensitivity Analysis Implied Price Undervalued/(Overvalued) Terminal Growth Rate 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 1.13 $44.05 $45.79 $47.78 $50.08 $52.77 1.23 $41.05 $42.50 $44.15 $46.03 $48.20 1.33 $38.43 $39.65 $41.03 $42.58 $44.36 1.43 $36.12 $37.16 $38.32 $39.62 $41.09 1.53 $34.07 $34.96 $35.95 $37.05 $38.28 Adjusted Beta Adjusted Beta Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 1.53 (6.21%) (3.76%) (1.05%) 1.97% 5.37% 1.43 (0.57%) 2.29% 5.47% 9.06% 13.11% 1.33 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 1.43 (0.57%) 2.29% 5.47% 9.06% 13.11% 1.53 (6.21%) (3.76%) (1.05%) 1.97% 5.37% Implied Price Undervalued/(Overvalued) Terminal Growth Rate 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 10.50% $36.26 $37.39 $38.66 $40.09 $41.73 10.00% $37.32 $38.50 $39.82 $41.31 $43.02 9.50% $38.43 $39.65 $41.03 $42.58 $44.36 9.00% $39.58 $40.86 $42.29 $43.91 $45.76 8.50% $40.79 $42.11 $43.60 $45.28 $47.21 WACC WACC Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 10.50% (0.19%) 2.91% 6.40% 10.36% 14.88% 10.00% 2.73% 5.97% 9.60% 13.72% 18.42% 9.50% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 9.00% 8.96% 12.46% 16.39% 20.85% 25.94% 8.50% 12.26% 15.91% 20.01% 24.65% 29.95% Implied Price Undervalued/(Overvalued) Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.76% $36.75 $37.77 $38.90 $40.17 $41.60 3.26% $37.55 $38.67 $39.91 $41.31 $42.90 2.76% $38.43 $39.65 $41.03 $42.58 $44.36 2.26% $39.40 $40.75 $42.27 $44.01 $46.01 1.76% $40.47 $41.96 $43.66 $45.62 $47.89 Terminal Risk Free Rate Terminal Risk Free Rate Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.76% 1.16% 3.97% 7.09% 10.58% 14.52% 3.26% 3.36% 6.43% 9.86% 13.72% 18.09% 2.76% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 2.26% 8.45% 12.15% 16.35% 21.13% 26.64% 1.76% 11.39% 15.50% 20.18% 25.57% 31.82% UOIG 26 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 9 – Sensitivity Analysis (Continue) Implied Price Undervalued/(Overvalued) Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 28.9% $38.53 $39.76 $41.15 $42.72 $44.51 26.9% $38.48 $39.71 $41.09 $42.65 $44.43 24.9% $38.43 $39.65 $41.03 $42.58 $44.36 22.9% $38.38 $39.60 $40.97 $42.52 $44.29 20.9% $38.33 $39.54 $40.91 $42.45 $44.21 Tax Rate Tax Rate Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 28.9% 6.07% 9.45% 13.26% 17.58% 22.51% 26.9% 5.92% 9.30% 13.10% 17.39% 22.30% 24.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 22.9% 5.64% 8.99% 12.76% 17.03% 21.90% 20.9% 5.50% 8.84% 12.60% 16.85% 21.70% Additional Sensitivity Tables Additional Senstivity Tables Terminal Growth Rate 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 31.9% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 26.9% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 21.9% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 16.9% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 11.9% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 Reinvestment Rate in Year 2024E Reinvestment Rate in Year 2024E 1.3% Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 31.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 26.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 21.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 16.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% 11.9% 5.78% 9.15% 12.93% 17.21% 22.10% Additional Sensitivity Tables Additional Senstivity Tables Terminal Growth Rate 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 5.07% $ 38.17 $ 39.38 $ 40.72 $ 42.25 $ 43.99 4.77% $ 38.05 $ 39.24 $ 40.57 $ 42.09 $ 43.81 4.47% $ 38.05 $ 39.24 $ 40.57 $ 42.09 $ 43.81 4.17% $ 38.17 $ 39.38 $ 40.72 $ 42.25 $ 43.99 3.87% $ 38.43 $ 39.65 $ 41.03 $ 42.58 $ 44.36 Cost of Debt Cost of Debt 1.3% Terminal Growth Rate 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 5.07% 5.1% 8.4% 12.1% 16.3% 21.1% 4.77% 5.4% 8.8% 12.5% 16.8% 21.6% 4.47% 5.8% 9.1% 12.9% 17.2% 22.1% 4.17% 6.1% 9.5% 13.3% 17.7% 22.6% 3.87% 6.5% 9.9% 13.8% 18.1% 23.1% UOIG 27 University of Oregon Investment Group 05/13/2016 Appendix 10 – Sources Activision Blizzard Investor Relation Activision Blizzard Annual Reports Activision Blizzard Earning Transcript Activision Press Release Factset Fortune Forbes Google Finance KPMG Tax Rate Table Mojo Box Office Newzoo E-Sport Industry Research Sec.gov Seeking Alpha Statista Tall Firs Portfolio Annual Report The Superdata E-sport Market Brief Wall Street Journal Yahoo Finance UOIG 28