90.11 Barons Quay Impact Final

Transcription

Report:
Project:
Baron’s Quay Impact Study
Northwich and Baron Quays Masterplan
Date:
July 2011
WYG PLANNING & DESIGN
Quay West at MediaCityUK
Trafford Wharf Road
Trafford Park
Manchester
M17 1HH
Tel:
Fax:
(0161) 872 3223
(0161) 872 3193
www.wyg.com
Document Control
Project:
Baron’s Quay Redevelopment, Northwich
Client:
Chester West & Chester Council
Job Number:
A070464
File Origin:
T:\Job Files - Manchester\A070464 - Northwich Baron's Quay\Reports\Final\Final - 110802.doc
Document Checking:
Prepared by:
Carly Hinde/Paul Shuker
Signed:
Checked by:
Paul Shuker/Keith Nutter
Signed:
Verified by:
Keith Nutter
Signed:
Issue
Date
Status
1
20th May 2011
Draft Report
2
18th July 2011
Final Draft Report
3
2nd August 2011
Final Report
4
WYG Planning and Design
creative minds safe hands
Contents Page
1.0
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1
2.0
PLANNING POLICY OVERVIEW ................................................................................................... 4
3.0
DESCRIPTION OF DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................... 6
4.0
CONSIDERATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................... 11
5.0
THE NEED FOR THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT........................................................................... 20
6.0
CONSIDERATION OF POLICY EC15 – SEQUENTIAL APPROACH ...................................................... 54
7.0
CONSIDERATION OF THE EC16 – ECONOMIC IMPACT .................................................................. 64
8.0
CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................... 110
Appendix Contents
Appendix 1 – Planning Policy Overview
Appendix 2 – Updated Vitality and Viability Assessment
Appendix 3 – Updated Retail Capacity Tables (Baseline)
Appendix 4 – Estimated Turnover of Development
Appendix 5 – Convenience Goods Impact Tables 2015, 2016 and 2021
Appendix 6 – Comparison Goods Impact Tables 2015, 2016 and 2021
Appendix 7 – Cumulative Impact Tables 2015, 2016 and 2021
Appendix 8 – Composite Town Centre Tables
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Introduction
1.01
This Study has been prepared by WYG Planning and Design (WYG) on behalf of Chester West and
Chester Council (CWAC) to review the potential impacts (both positive and negative) of the proposed
major retail-led redevelopment at Baron’s Quay within Northwich town centre.
1.02
The emerging masterplan for the site seeks to secure significant physical regeneration within
Northwich town centre as well as providing modern shopping facilities to better meet the needs of
Northwich residents. The scale and quality of the development proposed will provide a legacy for
Northwich town centre as a key shopping destination over the next 20 to 30 years. Given the scale of
the development proposed it is essential that the potential impact of the proposal is thoroughly
assessed to ensure that no adverse impacts would occur and that the benefits associated with the
planned investment are maximised.
Background to Baron’s Quay
1.03
In 2003 the Council, in partnership with the North West Development Agency, English Partnerships,
Cheshire County Council and British Waterways prepared a Regeneration Framework for Northwich
town centre. It followed the award of £32 million by English Partnerships on behalf of the
Government under the Land Stabilisation Programme for the stabilisation of abandoned salt mines
underneath the town centre.
1.04
The stabilisation programme provided an opportunity for the Council to redevelop the site commonly
known as Baron’s Quay which had been blighted by the unstable ground conditions for a significant
period of time. A development agreement was signed in 2008 with Wilson Bowden Developments to
deliver a major retail proposal including a new department store, a new foodstore, alongside 40 other
retail units, a multi-screen cinema, restaurants, etc.
1.05
Following the global financial crisis and subsequent impact on the retail market, the prospects of
implementing the original proposals were extremely limited. The difficulties involved in securing
funding for town centre developments generally and the fact that interest expressed by certain anchor
1
tenants was being reconsidered in light of the recessionary period, meant that the potential
redevelopment opportunity at Baron’s Quay was put on hold and subsequently the development
agreement was terminated.
1.06
The Council are now seeking to reinvigorate the potential to provide a major retail development that
will transform the fortunes of Northwich town centre as a retail destination. This report seeks to
explore the implications of any such development scheme and test whether or not the strategy that
was pursued in 2008 is still valid in 2011.
Purpose of the Report
1.07
The report has been commissioned by CWAC to address a number of questions that have been raised
during the development of the proposals. These can be summarised as follows:
•
Is the scheme appropriate in terms of its mix of uses, scale and location?
•
What will the impact be on the performance of the town centre?
•
What changes can be expected in terms of future shopping patterns and behaviour and what
is the potential to claw-back expenditure?
•
What the potential impact would be on other centres and whether further work is required to
assess the implications of this potential impact?
•
What would the future for Northwich be without the proposed development?
•
In terms of the proposed convenience goods floorspace, where would trade be drawn from
and how would this impact on existing operators within the centre?
•
Where would the expenditure for the comparison goods floorspace be drawn from and how
would this impact on existing retailers in Northwich?
•
How would Northwich’s retail ‘centre of gravity’ change if the development was implemented?
•
Would any parts of the town centre be adversely affected and if so, how could these impacts
be mitigated?
2
1.08
In seeking to address the questions set out above, WYG have drawn extensively on the evidence
gathered for the recently published Cheshire Retail Study (2011). Furthermore, we have also drawn
on our extensive experience of major retail-led developments implemented elsewhere in the North
West and the UK to help explain the likely consequences that could occur and how best to plan for
them.
1.09
The structure of the report is set out as follows:
Section 2: sets out the current (national, regional and local) planning policy framework for retail,
leisure and office development which includes a review of national guidance (primarily PPS4) and also
relevant development plan policy set out in the Regional Spatial Strategy and the adopted Local Plan.
Section 3: provides a description of development that is currently being developed by the Council’s
architect and master planner. This provides a summary of the proposed development blocks that
could be introduced at Baron’s Quay.
Section 4: details the overall economic assessment in relation to the key tests set out in Policy EC10
of PPS4. This relates to the development’s impact on climate change, accessibility, design,
regeneration and employment.
Section 5: considers the sequential approach to site selection against the criteria set out in Policy
EC15 of PPS4.
Section 6: assesses the retail impact assessment of the proposed development in line with Policy
EC16 of PPS4.
Section 7: evaluates the development against Policy EC17 of PPS4.
Section 8: provides the main summary and conclusions on the retail and leisure provision within
Baron’s Quay in terms of the requirements of national planning policy PPS4 and the development plan.
1.10
The appendices include the main evidence base from previous research undertaken and include an
updated retail capacity and impact model, as well as examples of other major shopping centres
schemes which have been delivered in other comparable town centres in the North West.
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2.0 PLANNING POLICY OVERVIEW
Introduction
2.01
This section provides a brief review of planning policy in so far as it is material in assessing the site for
the development proposed. A more detailed overview of national, regional and local planning policy in
relation to Baron’s Quay is set out in Appendix 1.
2.02
National policy for economic development is mainly dealt with through PPS1, PPS4 as well as PPG13.
The main trust of national planning policy is to focus sustainable economic development and main
town centre uses into existing centres as well as to improve competition between retailers and
enhance consumer choice
2.03
Policy EC4 PPS4 requires LPA’s to pro-actively promote and improve town centres. CWAC (formerly
Vale Royal) have been promoting the principle of major new retail and leisure development at the
subject site since 200 through formal policy approach. This has involved extensive research into
quantitative and qualitative need for Baron’s Quay in accordance with Policy EC1 of PPS4. The LPA has
undertaken a sequential approach to site selection which accords with EC5 of PPS4. Whereby the site
has been identified as the only available, suitable and viable site option available to accommodate the
identified capacity for the town. The site’s allocation and implementation will delivery the stepped
change required to improve shopping facilities in Northwich and to reverse decline in the town centre
and re-establish its position in the wider hierarchy.
2.04
PPS4 (Policy EC10) requires all development proposals which involve economic development to be
considered against five impact considerations which relate to the impact on carbon dioxide levels,
accessibility, securing high quality design, economic regeneration and local employment.
2.05
With Baron’s Quay identified as a town centre extension for Northwich it is clear that any scheme in
this location accords with the development plan and therefore the sequential approach does not have
to be satisfied under EC15 of PPS4 WYG believe that the Baron’s Quay site still represents the
sequentially preferable site in Northwich to meet any identified capacity.
4
2.06
Policy EC16 of PPS4 requires that a number (6) of impact considerations are examined on new
development not in the centre and no in accordance with the development plan. As with EC15, the
site’s development is in accordance with the development due to being partly located in primary retail
area as defined in the Vale Royal Local Plan furthermore it is considered to represent the logical
extension to the primary shopping area once developed. In conclusion the consideration of Policy
EC16 is not required given the site’s allocation.
2.07
Despite the government plans to revoke Regional Spatial Strategy in July 2010, and following a legal
challenge which rejected their decision, Regional Spatial Strategies still form part of the development
plan until they are formally abolished through the assent of the Localism Bill. The RSS will therefore
remain a material consideration in any future planning decision until such time. The RSS for the
north-west (2008) identifies (Policy W5) Northwich as a town centre which should deliver enhanced
comparison goods retailing facilities and further sustainable economic growth (Policy LCR5) in the
Liverpool city-region. WYG contend that Baron’s Quay in principle accords with both national and
regional planning policy direction.
2.08
The Vale Royal Local Plan (VRLP) (2006) accords with the Northwich Vision approved in the Council’s
Interim Planning Document in 2004. Policy GS9a identifies the Baron’s Quay development area as a
comprehensive retail-led mixed use regeneration scheme. The policy clearly identifies the site as an
extension to the existing primary shopping area and is identified as the Council’s preferred site in
terms of the sequential approach. Within the shopping and town centre section of the VRLP there is a
comprehensive policy approach towards the delivery of the Baron’s Quay site before other sites within
Northwich are considered.
2.09
In summary, the development plans clearly identifies Northwich as a focus for new comparison goods
retailing and investment in the future both at the local and regional level. The development plan
allocates the site for redevelopment opportunities including retail and leisure type development and it
is clearly prioritised as the council’s preferred location for future investment.
5
3.0 DESCRIPTION OF DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
3.01
For the purposes of this study, the Baron’s Quay site comprises 16ha of land located entirely within
the designated town centre for Northwich. The irregular shaped site is bound to the south by Weaver
Way (which is situated to the rear of the primary retail area of Northwich town centre), to the west by
the River Weaver, to the north by park land and to the east Albion Retail Park which forms the rest of
Northwich town centre. The site also includes the northern part of Leicester Street which forms part of
the primary retail area.
3.02
The majority of the site is cleared and currently used as surface level car park. The site still has a
number of existing built structures including the existing Marks and Spencer Department Store.
Figure 3.1 below shows the site in the wider context of Northwich urban area.
3.03
The site includes the removal of a number of properties within the defined primary retail area at both
Witton Street and Leicester Street to facilitate pedestrian linkages with the redevelopment to ensure
that it is well integrated into the existing urban area. This approach will ensure that a seamless retail
environment is created for future users. The interface with the adjoining primary retail area will
reinforce retail activity and ensure that Baron’s Quay is considered as a natural extension of the retail
shopping environment.
3.04
Figure 3.1 shows the relationship of the proposed development blocks in relation to the existing
primary retail area and the town centre. It demonstrates that the redevelopment will form a logical
extension of the primary retail area which has been made available due to the completion of the land
stabilisation programme covering the town centre.
6
Figure 3.1: The Baron’s Quay Site
Red = Baron’s Quay site; Green = Phase 1; Blue = Town Centre Boundary
Development Description
3.05
Details on the proposal have been drawn from provisional layouts prepared by Broadway Malyan. For
the purposes of this report, this appraisal will assess the impact of the commercial retail, office and
leisure uses created within the masterplan, which are considered as ‘main town centre uses’ within
PPS4. Therefore for the purpose of this report Table 3.1 sets out the level of ‘main town centre uses’
7
Table 3.1: Baron’s Quay - Overall Retail and Leisure Land Use and Amount (Parameters)
by Phasing period
Phase 1
(GEA sq.m)
Phase 2
(GEA sq.m)
Total
A1 (Comparison)
3,989 *
14,956
18,945
A1 (Convenience) **
11,028
-
11,028
D2 (Cinema/Other)
-
5,529
5,529
A3/A4/A5 (leisure)
158
2,349
2,507
Other ***
701
-
701
15,876
22,834
38,710
Use
Total
* Includes proposed Units 1 to 5 in first development block.
**Excludes Travelator and new multi storey car parking
*** Energy Centre
Excludes areas of landscaping
3.06
In total Baron’s Quay will create 37,710 sq m (gross external area) of main town centre (retail, leisure
and business) uses. Most of the main town centre uses (15,425 sq m) will be delivered in the first
phase between 2013 to 2016, but it is likely that the supermarket and the comparison goods retailing
(15,427 sq m) block will be delivered by 2015. The rest of Phase 1 (9,529 sq m) and Phase 2 (13,775
sq m) will be delivered between 2015 and 2016. In total Baron’s Quay will create 40,200 sq m of new
commercial floorspace across five main new development blocks.
3.07
Phase 1 of the development will be focused on the delivery of a large supermarket, which will
comprise 11,028 sq m (GEA). The supermarket will be accessed off Leicester Street via a pedestrian
travelator.
3.08
Within the same development block as the supermarket, a large 2,989 sq m unit will accommodate a
major anchor tenant. This block will also incorporate 4 smaller (approx 250 sq m each GEA) retail
units below the supermarket providing ground floor retailing. It is anticipated that these elements will
be delivered by 2015.
3.09
The rest of Phase 1 will be centred on new comparison goods retailing units; this will comprise
delivering new retail units along Leicester Street and a new street which will link the development to
Witton Street. These will include a variety of retail units ranging in size from 300 sq m to 2,286 sq m.
8
This retailing will sit in front of Albion Road Retail Park, and pedestrian access will be retained. It is
expected that this will be implemented by 2016.
3.10
The third proposed block of retail is focused on the existing Marks and Spencer store on Leicester
Street. This comprises a horse-shoe shaped development block which will sit adjacent the proposed
supermarket block but will then focus on a new street linking back to the Witton Street creating an
internal circuit.
3.11
The fourth block will be a new retail terrace which will sit adjacent block 3, the terrace will comprise
nine retail units comprising between 144 sq m and 857 sq m units. The block will reinforce the new
street linking back to the Witton Street.
3.12
Baron’s Quay will deliver a new leisure box which is situated to the rear of High Street/Witton Street.
This will comprise a new cinema with four A2/A3/A4 units. The units will overlook the River Weaver.
The leisure box will be accessed from the High Street.. The leisure box will include two levels of
leisure uses, WYG assume a purpose built multi-screen cinema.
3.13
Baron’s Quay will be serviced by a total of 1,180 car parking spaces through 840 through decked car
park which will be access off the Leicester Street. The car parking will be located within the main
supermarket block. Surface level parking will be allocated at Leicester Street with a further 384 car
parking spaces in two separated areas.
3.14
The scheme will involve the removal of a number of properties located on High Street, Leicester Street
and Witton Street to create pedestrian access points into Baron’s Quay. From our assessment of the
plans, it would appear that the properties set out in Table 3.2 will be removed to facilitate the
proposed Baron’s Quay redevelopment. WYG estimate that this amounts to 2,160 sq m (GEA) of retail
floorspace. Therefore, WYG estimate that the ‘net’ increase in floorspace created by the proposed
development would be 38,040 sq m (GEA).
9
Table 3.2: Baron’s Quay – Floorspace to be Removed
Use
Address
(GEA sq.m)
A1
15-17 Witton Street
240
A1 (Convenience)
65-67 Witton Street
780
A1
69 Witton Street
160
A1
7 Leicester Street
70
A1
11-13 Leicester Street
190
A1
15-17 Leicester Street
120
A5
39-41 High Street
440
Total
2,160
Estimated Figures provided by Broadway Malyan
10
4.0 CONSIDERATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
4.01
Under the ‘Development Management Policies’ PPS4 requires all planning applications for economic
development to be assessed against the impact criteria set out in Policy EC10. This applies to all
developments whether they are in-centre, edge of centre or out-of-centre. The policy requires five
criteria to be satisfied but stressed that local planning authorities should adopt a positive and
constructive approach towards planning application for economic development. Also, Policy EC10
confirms that developments which secure sustainable economic growth should be treated favourably.
4.02
WYG’s assessment of the emerging proposals for Baron’s Quay against Policy EC10.2 is set out below.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions/Climate Change
4.03
The first consideration relates to whether a proposal has been planned over the lifetime of the
development to limit carbon dioxide emissions and to provide resilience to climate change. In actual
fact, it is considered that the proposal provides a very real opportunity to contribute most effectively
to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and minimising energy use. At this point, it is considered
important to mention that PPS4 is intended to complement, and be read in conjunction with, PPS1
(together, of course, with other statements of national policy). At the heart of the proposed
development for Baron’s Quay is the delivery of a form of development which is entirely consistent
with the principles of PPS1 and PPS4. Not only will the development form a natural extension of the
primary shopping area (i.e. a truly sustainable location accessible to all) but it will also seek to reduce
unnecessary journeys to other competing centres by providing an enhanced retail offer that will better
meet the needs of the local community.
4.04
Current shopping patterns (as evidence by WYG’s survey research) result in unsustainable journeys to
competing centres, primarily by car, to access suitable comparison goods shopping facilities. This
position will continue (if not increase) if the existing shopping patterns prevail and no new
development is secured within Northwich. The current poor comparison goods offer within Northwich
forces local people to travel further to satisfy their main comparison shopping needs. WYG believe that
the introduction of significant new comparison goods shopping provision, will help capture new or
11
additional trade and further strengthen Northwich’s share of the market. This will promote more
sustainable shopping patterns locally and will discourage local people travelling long distances by car
to satisfy their main shopping needs. A significant reduction in car borne journeys will help reduce
emissions from unnecessary vehicle movements and therefore, contribute to the government’s
commitment to reducing carbon dioxide levels.
4.05
The development will also support the use of sustainable transport by focussing retail development,
which traditionally attracts large numbers of people, in an existing centre, which already benefits from
a wide choice of sustainable transport modes. Therefore, in promoting sustainable travel and journey
savings, the proposal clearly has the potential to contribute to the Government’s ambition of a low
carbon economy.
4.06
In addition, whilst the proposed development is only at the inception stage in terms of its detailed
design, it is expected to provide an opportunity for the introduction of a variety of technologies
designed to reduce carbon emissions and to minimise energy use (relating to the daily operation of
the commercial development). This may include a combination of low-carbon emission equipment,
renewable energy systems and a range of in-store energy efficiency measures. In addition to these
features, it is expected that the ability for certain construction methods to be adopted and building
materials to be used. However, with a clear mandate to facilitate carbon neutral or green buildings, a
real opportunity exists to design a high quality low carbon development. The Council may at this initial
stage seek to instruct BREEAM assessors into the design stage of the scheme to ensure that all
aspects of the proposals environmental credentials are considered from the offset to allow the scheme
to be considered for BREEAM very good of excellent accreditation.
Accessibility
4.07
The second consideration under Policy EC10.2 relates to the accessibility of the proposal by a choice
of means of transport and the impact on local traffic levels and congestion after public transport and
traffic management measures have been secured.
4.08
The proposed development of the site will generate significant travel demand. However, given its
central location there is a real opportunity to make use of the existing public transport infrastructure
serving Northwich town centre. The development will also provide the opportunity for walk-in and
bicycle-borne custom given the site’s central location and the proximity of certain residential areas to
12
the town centre. In addition to this, the development will deliver important pedestrian links
(particularly with the rest of the town centre), to ensure that the proposal creates a natural extension
to the retail core of the town centre.
4.09
Four pedestrian access points are proposed which link into the existing centre. This will include a new
western access onto Witton Street, which will directly link Phase 1 to the rest of Witton Street but will
also facilitate pedestrian access to Albion Retail Park. The second will involve a reinforced pedestrian
access point with Leicester Street and Witton Street which will lead to the proposed supermarket. The
third access point will break through the existing primary frontage between properties 13 to 19 Witton
Street, and create a direct pedestrian access to Phase 2, which will comprise a new precinct of shops
which will help complete a pedestrian circuit linking to Phase 1. The last pedestrian access links
through to High Street and will be facilitated by the removal of the McDonalds building block; this will
open access to the cinema and leisure block and access to the River Weaver corridor. It is clear that
the proposed development will ensure that fundamental pedestrian linkages are made within the
established primary retail area ensuring that Baron’s Quay forms an integral part of the existing town
centre.
4.10
Of course, it is recognised that the majority of trips to the development will inevitably be by car
(demonstrated in the level of car parking proposed). However, the introduction of improved shopping
facilities and a new supermarket on the Baron’s Quay site will enable more linked trips to be
undertaken than currently achieved.
4.11
It is the intention that the car parking area associated with the new development will also function as
a town centre car park. The impact of the introduction of 890 car parking spaces within Baron’s Quay
will need careful consideration. Existing public car parking in Northwich is generally free of charge
and distributed around the town centre, notably at Baron’s Quay, at Albion Retail Park and to the
south of Chesterway (rear of the court buildings).
4.12
The Council will need to put in place a car parking strategy. This should look to manage long and
short term car parking behaviour in the town. The parking strategy may also influence the pedestrian
movement into and out of the town centre, which may have impact on the footfall in particular areas.
However, if the Memorial Hall site is developed for a new lifestyle/cultural centre, pedestrian flows
may be maintained or even enhanced. For example, if parking at the current Memorial Hall area is
restricted, then pedestrians moving through the south of the town centre (through Weaver Shopping
13
Centre) may reduce. Indeed, any future parking strategy will need to ensure that car parking is easy
to find, easy to use and safe.
4.13
When the development of Baron’s Quay is progressed through a planning application a detailed
Transport Assessment will be required, The TA will need to set out the public transport, infrastructure
changes and traffic management measures that are proposed as part of the development, and will
need to demonstrate that the scheme can satisfactorily accommodate any increase in travel on the
roads immediately surrounding the Baron’s Quay site without having an adverse impact on the safe
and efficient operation of the existing highway network. Given that the existing site is used as surface
level car park with in excess of 453 spaces, the scheme will nearly double the existing level of parking
which will clearly affect traffic in and around the site and will require further investigation.
4.14
However, at this stage, it is evident that the site’s central location is a significant benefit when seeking
to encourage use of alternatives modes of transport other than the private motor vehicle.
High Quality Design
4.15
At this initial stage WYG have not seen any detailed drawings for the proposed development apart
from the emerging layout which shows how the proposed scheme will integrate with the rest of the
town centre.
4.16
The proposal will reinforce linkages between the supermarket in Phase 1 with Leicester Street down to
Witton Street and improve the built environment along Leicester Street. The alignment of new Units
along Leicester Street and a new pedestrian link into Witton Street (through the Iceland store) will
reinforce the eastern approach of the primary retail area improve the integration in this part of the
centre. This will also positively deal with the existing triangular block which currently constrains the
links between the town centre and Albion Retail Park by providing active frontages.
4.17
The proposed development blocks facilitate a pedestrian circuit which will allow pedestrians to
navigate in a loop which will form a natural extension to Witton Street through the four new access
points. The enhanced public realm will also support new opportunities for recreation and activity and
in turn to generate a new sense of place and identity for the town centre.
14
4.18
Any future accompanying Design and Access Statement will need to provide further details regarding
the emerging design, including the design principles which have been adopted and how the scheme
will contribute to the built environment. However, in general terms and for the purposes of Policy
EC10 of PPS4, it can be commented that the scheme provides an opportunity to directly enhance the
shopping environment through improved architecture and urban form. As set out above, an improved
pedestrian circuit integrated into the existing primary retail area coupled with the creation of an
improved use of the street through enhanced public open space, incorporating high quality hard and
soft landscaping will create an improved shopping environment, which is currently showing signs of
tiredness and disinvestment.
4.19
The fact that the scheme will bring about a considerable improvement in the built fabric is further
developed at paragraphs 4.20 to 4.30 below in the context of achieving physical and environmental
regeneration.
Regeneration and Local Employment
4.20
The final consideration relates to the impact on economic and physical regeneration in the area
(including the impact on deprived areas and social inclusion objectives), and in the case of Northwich
this is directly related to the effect on local employment (which is considered initially below).
4.21
The regeneration needs of Northwich have already been well-documented. In order to assess the
likely job generation WYG has utilised the employment density guidance produced by the Homes &
Communities Agency in 2010. Based on the floorspace created by the Baron’s Quay redevelopment,
WYG estimate that the scheme will create up to 1, 378 new jobs. The breakdown of the likely
employment generated is shown in Table 4.1 below. The main creation of employment will be
facilitated through the comparison goods element of the scheme and the new supermarket.
15
Table 4.1: Employment Generation at Baron’s Quay
Area per FTE
(sq.m)
Floor Area
Basis
Total (sq m)
Employment
(FTE)
A1 (Comparison)
19
NIA
13,262
698
A1 (Convenience)
17
NIA
7,991
470
D2 (Cinema/Other)
90
GIA
4,976
55
A3/A4/A5 (leisure)
18
NIA
2,114
117
Other
19
NIA
701
37
Use
Total
1,378
Source: Employment Densities (2nd Edition)
4.22
These figures outlined above do not take into account any construction employment or indirect
employment which will obviously occur. The indirect employment potential (or multiplier effect) is
difficult to quantify based on the information currently available, but it is likely to be significant if the
scheme successfully reverses current shopping patterns, whereby more people visit and spend money
within Northwich town centre.
4.23
In addition, it is expected that the majority of staff will be recruited from the local community.
Indeed, many of the leading supermarket operators are committed to working closely with the local
communities and have a number of recruitment initiatives to ensure that the benefits are maximised
locally. Since 2007, many operators have signed up to the Government’s Local Employment
Partnership Initiative (LEPI) which supports benefit claimants and long term unemployed to get back
to work through collaboration with Job Centre Plus. We would anticipate that similar initiatives would
be adopted in this instance.
4.24
Many retail operators likely to be secured at Baron’s Quay not only aim to recruit locally but seek to
retain staff in their business, to achieve this they often commit to investment in training and career
development opportunities for all staff. Such initiatives can vary from embedded training in the work
place to commitment to wider attainment of recognised qualifications in related skills and capabilities
(such as NVQ Levels 1 to 2 – level 2 is equivalent to 5 GCSE’s at grade A-C).
4.25
As such, the development is expected to have a positive impact on the local job market as well as
increase local income levels, with the potential for this money to be spent in local Northwich
businesses which is likely to encourage future development and investment. The development is also
16
likely to assist in improving local market confidence and upgrading the skills base which may serve to
attract further inward investment. When the multiplier effect on the local economy is taken into
account, the economic benefits in terms of jobs and incomes in the Northwich area is likely to be even
more considerable.
4.26
In addition, as will be developed in the subsequent assessment of Policy EC16 ‘centre’ impacts, both
the supermarket and comparison goods development is anticipated to strengthen the economic
performance of Northwich town centre by stemming the outflow of retail and leisure expenditure and
retaining shoppers within the town centre. In addition, and as explored later in this report, the
introduction of high quality shops and services will reduce the need for local residents to travel to
other destinations in wider sub-regions to satisfy their shopping needs. Given the very real
opportunities for linked trips to other shops and services within the town centre, spin-off expenditure
from shoppers using both the supermarket and comparison goods retailing is expected to benefit
existing, and potentially new, local traders in the town centre, which may give rise to further job
opportunities.
4.27
WYG also believe that the introduction of a cinema to Northwich will help ‘claw back’ people who
travel to facilities elsewhere but will also have a knock on benefit to the evening economy which will
help retain and create new employment opportunities. The evidence from the Cheshire Retail Update
(2011) clearly shows that residents in Zones 2 and 6 of the Study Area are travelling to facilities
elsewhere, either to Cheshire Oaks (VUE), Reel Cinema in Crewe or various facilities in Greater
Manchester. If these trips can be reduced through the introduction of a new cinema facility it will
increase the propensity of people to visit Northwich during evening periods which will bring positive
benefits to the evening economy.
4.28
In terms of physical and environmental regeneration, the application scheme involves the
comprehensive redevelopment of a strategic site within the town centre and will bring about a
considerable transformation of the built fabric. It is assumed that a high-quality well-designed
shopping development will be provided which will regenerate this underutilised site.
4.29
The scheme will introduce investment in the physical fabric of the town which will provide confidence
in the area following years of uncertainty. This will therefore act as a catalyst for further physical and
environmental regeneration in the wider town centre and help to bring forward other important
redevelopment sites. Indeed, WYG believe that such significant investment is likely to encourage other
17
key stakeholders in the town centre to re-invest in their premises in order to maximise the benefits of
such a major step change in Northwich’s retail offer.
4.30
Furthermore, the economic and physical benefits would also bring about significant positive in relation
to the overall quality of life, social conditions and social inclusion. For example:
•
Increased employment could bring about potential beneficial effects on educational attainment
and crime;
•
Increase investor confidence in the property market;
•
Improved environmental quality will foster a greater degree of community and civic pride and will
help to raise the general perception of the Northwich area.
4.31
Furthermore, by providing significant new retail and leisure facilities in a town centre location, the
proposal is a highly inclusive scheme whereby the development is accessible to all within the local
community, particularly those without access to the private car.
Conclusions regarding General Impact Considerations
4.32
From this assessment of the proposal against the general impact considerations established by Policy
EC10, it is clear that there are no ‘significant adverse’ impacts arising (as required to be determined by
means of Policy EC17). On the contrary, a series of positive impacts have been identified which can
be summarised as:
•
Delivering a form of development which is consistent with the desire to limit carbon dioxide
emissions and mitigate against the effects of climate change, in particular through the ability to
maximise sustainable travel and journey savings;
•
The ability to exploit a highly accessible town centre location for a form of development (food and
non-food retail) which generates travel demand;
•
A policy commitment to achieving a high quality design solution, consistent with the land use
designation;
18
•
Providing a significant economic boost to the Northwich area, contributing to increased wealth,
representing new investment in the physical fabric and complementing social inclusion objectives;
and
•
The ability to create much needed employment and economic prosperity.
19
5.0 THE NEED FOR THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
5.01
PPS4 requires LPA to prepare robust evidence to assess the future need for retail and leisure
development taking into account both quantitative and qualitative needs. Any quantitative analysis
should include up to date economic data and an assessment of forecast population levels, forecast
expenditure and sales densities etc. The qualitative analysis should assess whether the current
distribution of shopping and leisure facilities allows genuine choice for the whole community as well as
the degree to which existing shops are over-trading of and if so, whether there is a need to increase
competition and choice.
Background to Capacity
5.02
In November 2009, WYG Planning & Design (WYG) was commissioned by Chester West & Chester
(CWAC) and Cheshire East (CE) Councils to undertake an update of the previous Cheshire Town
Centre Study (CTCS, 2007) and the Chester Retail Study (CRS 2006). This Study provides essential
background information that forms part of the evidence base informing the production of the Local
Development Framework (LDF) for both Boroughs. The Study draws on new empirical research in
the form of a telephone survey (May 2010) of 4,000 households covering CWAC and CE and the
surrounding area to assess shopping patterns within the sub-region and to provide comparisons with
previous studies where possible.
5.03
The updated study was published in April 2011, after being prepared between April 2010 and March
2011. The Study considered the future need/capacity of the 17 town centres (within the two
Boroughs) for retail development between 2010 and 2026. The study also provided a desk based
update of the vitality and viability of each of the town centres.
Convenience Goods
5.04
In terms of Northwich, the study identified that existing convenience goods provision in the town was
significantly over-trading when comparing survey derived turnover and expected ‘benchmark’
turnover. WYG concluded that existing convenience goods facilities within Northwich were over-
20
trading in 2010 by £86.4m. If this position was maintained over the plan period (i.e. now new
facilities provided) then this over-trading would increase to £103.1m at 2015 and £114.2m at 2021.
5.05
The over-trading was mainly as a result of the strong performance of the edge-of-centre Sainsbury’s
and Aldi stores as well as the out-of-centre Tesco store. The Study found that since 2006, the
convenience goods turnover of facilities in Northwich had increased by £14.4m (2007 prices).
5.06
After taking into account this over-trading, WYG estimated that over the period to 2015 there was a
potential quantitative capacity for 8,300 sq m (net) of additional convenience goods floorspace in
Northwich.
5.07
In terms of qualitative need, whilst the retention of expenditure within the Northwich area appeared
to be reasonable (i.e. nobody was being forced to shop elsewhere) the lack of choice meant that
existing facilities were seriously over-trading and heavily congested at peak times. The Study found
that local residents currently have a limited choice of convenience goods provision particularly for
main food shopping, with both the Tesco and Sainsbury’s stores accounting for 64% of all main food
shopping trips in the area. The Study concluded that there was a clear qualitative need to address
current over-trading and improve local consumer choice and competition.
Comparison Goods
5.08
The study estimated that existing facilities in the urban area of Northwich attracted £246.8m of
comparison goods expenditure, the majority of which (87%) was drawn from Zones 2 and 6. Of this
£200.6m was spent in the town centre, with £35.6m spent at Northwich Retail Park. The Study found
that Northwich town centre had a market share of 4.8% within the wider Study Area, whilst all
facilities in the Northwich area achieved a market share of 5.9%.
5.09
The Study identified that by rolling forward the current market share, there was additional capacity for
£216.3m which would be available to comparison goods facilities in Northwich in the future. Between
2010 and 2021, the study estimated that £126.9m of expenditure would be available for Northwich.
Based on an average sales density of £5,000 per sq m (and increased productivity efficiency of +1.5%
per annum) this means that Northwich could accommodate approximately 20,000 sq m (net) of new
comparison goods retailing by 2021.
21
5.10
Existing commitments amounted to 2,871 sq m (net) of comparison goods retailing in Northwich
which would absorb 14% of the capacity up to 2021. This would leave a residual capacity of
approximately 17,100 sq m (net) of new comparison goods floorspace based on the current market
share being maintained. As set out in section 3, the Baron’s Quay redevelopment is estimated to
provide approximately 14,739 sq m (net) comparison goods floorspace. This figure is comparable to
the level of capacity identified for Northwich to ensure that it maintains it current market share.
However, it is more than likely that once the scheme was open and trading Northwich’s market share
would improve, but this is likely to comprise claw back of expenditure currently being lost to other
centres.
5.11
In terms of the qualitative need for new comparison goods retailing, the study identified that when
comparing the results for same Study Area in 2006 (Zones 1 to 7 of the CRS, 2006), Northwich’s
overall market share in Zones 2 and 6 had increased by 2010. However, this increase was mainly
driven by the overall increase in bulky goods market share. It should also be noted that due to the
changes in the household survey methodology (different questions on comparison goods subcategorises1) a note of caution should be attributed to any comparisons with the results gather in
2006.
5.12
However, what is important is that the study confirmed that within Northwich’s primary catchment
(Zones 2 and 6) significant levels of comparison goods expenditure is spent at other competing
centres such as Chester city centre, Warrington town centre as well as other facilities in Greater
Manchester.
Leisure
5.13
The leisure assessment undertaken as part of the study did not specifically examine the individual
leisure capacity for each town, but provided a more strategic assessment across the two Boroughs’.
As a result, the study identified that there was capacity for an additional 7 to 9 cinema screens up to
2026 and suggested that this should be located within the northern area of the County. The study also
identified that the market share for cinema trips could be increased within Zones 2 and 6 and there
1
The household survey which informed the CRS (2006) was based on 5 sub categories of comparison goods items, whereas the 2011
Update was based on 8 sub categories of comparison goods items.
22
was a qualitative need to improve provision and to reduce the need for residents to travel to facilities
elsewhere in the Study Area and beyond.
5.14
The Study also concluded that despite a significant level of residents in Zone 6 participating in bowling
many people travel to facilities to destinations such as Crewe and Cheshire Oaks to satisfy their
leisure/entertainment needs. Therefore, there is a clear qualitative argument to improve ten-pin
bowling facilities within Zone 6.
Update to the Capacity Study
5.15
As part of this assessment of the Baron’s Quay redevelopment, WYG has sought to update the
Cheshire 2010 Study’s assessment on quantitative and qualitative need based on new economic data
and forecasts, which have been made available since the update was prepared. This update has been
based on the previous format of the Update Study but has been adjusted to reflect new data where
appropriate.
5.16
For the purposes of this assessment, WYG has updated the assumptions in respect of:
a. Base and Design dates to reflect the proposed phasing of the development;
b. Population Estimates (ONS, mid year 2008);
c.
Expenditure Growth Rates (Pitney Bowes); and
d. Average Sales Densities (Verdict 2010).
5.17
As set out in Section 3, the first phase of the scheme will include the supermarket and department
store block which is estimated to be operational by 2015 with the remainder of the scheme finalised
by the 2016. WYG have updated the Cheshire Study to reflect the base year of 2011 and then
provided two design years of 2015 and 2016 to reflect the estimated phasing. We have then
considered a time period of 5 years for the implementation and full letting of the proposal which
would occur by 2021.
23
5.18
The population within each postal code sector has been re-calculated using ONS data (2008
estimates). The baseline population has then been projected forward based on population projections
provided by CWAC Research and Intelligence department.
5.19
On this basis, the Study Area is identified to contain a resident population of approximately 1,463,000
people in 2011, which is set to increase to 1,481,000 people by 2015; 1,488,000 by 2016 and
1,516,000 people by 2021. This represents an increase in population within the Study Area of 52,000
people (or 3.6%) between 2011 and 2021.
5.20
In order to re-calculate convenience and comparison goods expenditure per person, WYG has
obtained data from Pitney Bowes AnySite Report data, which provides detailed information on local
consumer expenditure that takes into account the socio-economic characteristics of the local
population. Pitney Bowes is a widely accepted source of expenditure and population information and
is the same source that informed the CRS (2006) and the Update (2011).
5.21
However, since the Update was prepared (May 2010 to September 2010), revised forecasts have been
provided by Pitney Bowes in their Retail Expenditure Guide 2010/2011 published in September 2010.
This responds to revised data released in March 2010 from ONS and Oxford Economics. Importantly,
the latest expenditure forecasts take into account of continued depressed growth in the UK economy,
which has had an impact on the retail sector in the short to medium term.
5.22
For the purposes of this study the following forecasts have been applied drawing on actual and
forecast rates from Tables 3.2, 3.4 and 3.5 from Pitney Bowes:
24
Year
Convenience
Comparison
2008
-1.5%
+3.8%
2009
-2.7%
-0.3%
2010
+0.1%
+1.3%
2011
-0.5%
+2.3%
2012
+0.1%
+3.8%
2013
+0.5%
+4.4%
2014
+1.1%
+5.3%
2015
+1.0%
+5.1%
2016
+0.9%
+4.8%
2017
+0.5%
+4.0%
2018
+0.4%
+3.8%
2019
+0.4%
+3.7%
2020
+0.4%
+3.6%
2021
+0.4%
+4.5%
Source: Tables 3.2 and 3.5 Pitney Bowes: Retail Expenditure Guide 2010/2011
2008 to 2009 data is actual, 2010 to 2020 is based on forecast estimates from Pitney Bowes, thereafter is based on ultra long
term trend based data.
5.23
Drawing on the new forecast growth rates identified by Pitney Bowes, it is possible to produce
expenditure estimates for each survey Zone in 2011, 2015, 2016 and 2021. The assessment takes
into account both retail expenditure growth and population change.
Convenience Goods Expenditure
5.24
It is estimated that in 2011 the resident population within the Study Area will generate some
£2,536.1m of convenience goods expenditure. This is forecast to increase to £2,610.7m by 2015, to
£2,673.2m by 2016 and to £2,786.8m by 2021. This represents an increase of £250.7m (or 9.9%)
between 2011 and 2021.
Main Food and ‘Top-up’ Shopping
5.25
Consistent with the update study, WYG has drawn on the results of the household survey which
identify that 76.7% of convenience expenditure was spent on main food trips. Therefore, for the
25
purposes of this assessment we have assumed that 76.7% of convenience goods expenditure is
directed to the main food shopping destination (i.e. bulk food shop) and 23.3% directed to ‘top-up’
shopping destinations (i.e. regular purchase of products such as milk, bread, etc).
5.26
By applying these expenditure estimates per person to the identified population within the defined
Study Area, convenience goods expenditure on main food shopping is estimated to be £1,944.1m in
2011. With regard to ‘top-up’ food shopping, in 2011 the resident population within the Study Area
generated £592.0m of expenditure for such goods.
Comparison Goods Expenditure
5.27
In 2011 the resident population within the Study Area generates £4,472.8m of comparison goods
expenditure. Given the forecast growth in population and expenditure, this is anticipated to increase
to £7,060.4m by 2021. This represents an increase of £2,587.6m (or 48%) between 2011 and 2021.
5.28
Consistent with the updated study, the comparison goods expenditure is divided into eight sub–
expenditure categories.
Revised Retail Capacity for Northwich
5.29
For the purposes of this appraisal, WYG has refreshed the capacity exercise for new convenience and
comparison goods floorspace in light of the new baseline evidence and the likely design years for the
Baron’s Quay redevelopment. The methodological approach is the same as that set out in the Cheshire
Update Study. However, for the purposes of this study we have specifically explored the capacity
within Northwich rather than the Cheshire-wide approach adopted in the Update Study.
Convenience Retailing
5.30
In terms of the capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in Northwich, Table 5.1
(Revised Table NW.02) provides a breakdown of the trading performance of existing facilities in
Northwich. The trading performance of existing facilities is based on the survey derived turnover
(using the findings of the Household Survey) and the expected ‘benchmark’ turnover (based on
nationally published trading information from Mintel and Verdict) of the existing provision.
26
Table 5.1: (Revised Table NW.02): Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in
Northwich 2011
Store
Northwich
Iceland, Witton Street
Marks and Spencer's, Leicester
Street
Local shops
Net
Floorspace
– sq m1
Net
Convenience
– sq m2
Turnover
per sq m
- £3
Benchmark
Turnover £m
Survey
Estimate
- £m4
487
454
5,652
2.6
1.1
104
98
9,347
0.9
2.3
2,541
1,271
3,000
-
3.8
3.3
-
-
-
11.7
21.0
754
929
3,015
520
737
2,205
3,980
3,004
10,440
2.1
2.2
23.0
7.7
2.7
63.1
919
6,550
6.0
4.4
1,764
11,606
20.5
54.4
72.8
159.9
Sub-Total
Local Shops
Edge/Out-of-Centre
Aldi, Leicester Street
Lidl, Chester Way
Sainsbury’s, Venables Road
Co-Operative Food, Chester
Way
Tesco, Manchester Road
1,010
2,698
Sub-Total
TOTAL
Notes:
1
– Net Floorspace derived from Experian Goad (2010) or IGD Database (2010)
– Net convenience floorspace derived from Verdict Grocery Retailers (2010) where available
3
– Sales densities derived from Verdict (2010) or Mintel Retail Rankings (2010) for national multiples and WYG
assessment for local shops
4
– Survey derived turnover derived from Cheshire Household Survey (2010)
^ - Facilities in other ‘Local Shops’ assumed to be trading in equilibrium, except known main grocers which are
included in local shops category in NW.02 above.
At 2007 prices) May not add up due to rounding.
2
5.31
The above analysis takes into account the revised population and expenditure forecasts as well as
more up to date sales densities and convenience/comparison floorspace sales areas provided by
Verdict (2010).
5.32
By comparing the total turnover derived from the Household Survey (£159.9m) to the anticipated
‘benchmark’ turnover of all existing facilities within Northwich (£72.8m), there is a significant
undersupply of convenience goods floorspace within Northwich. The analysis also re-confirms the
strong performance of existing provision within the Northwich area with stores significantly overtrading by £87.1m at 2011, which is comparable to the £86.4m at 2010 estimated in the Update
Study.
27
5.33
Table 5.2 (Revised Table NW.03) and Table 5.3 (Revised Table NW.04) provide a breakdown
of the capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in the Northwich area.
Table 5.2 (Revised Table NW.03): Estimated ‘Capacity’ for Convenience Goods Facilities
Year
Turnover - £m1
Expenditure Available
- £m2
Surplus Expenditure
- £m
2011
2015
2016
2021
72.8
73.4
73.5
74.2
159.9
164.2
168.5
175.7
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
1
Notes:
- Allows for increased turnover efficiency of +0.2% per annum
2
- Assumes constant market share at 6.3% within the Study Area
At 2007 prices
Table 5.3: (Revised Table NW.04): Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in
Northwich – Convenience Goods
Year
£m
2011
2015
2016
2021
Notes:
5.34
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
Convenience Goods
Floorspace Requirement
Min1*
Max2*
7,734
8,019
8,353
8,828
17,424
18,103
18,818
19,890
1
- Average sales density assumed to be £11,265/sq m (based on the average sales density of the leading
four supermarkets as identified by Verdict 2010)
2
- Average sales density assumed to be £5,000/sq m
* - Allows for increases in turnover efficiency of +0.2% per annum
At 2007 Prices
Having regard to the identified undersupply of convenience goods floorspace (based on current
market shares) there is a significant capacity identified within Northwich. From our analysis, there is
an immediate capacity (i.e. 2011) for additional convenience goods floorspace within Northwich
totalling 8,019 sq m net at 2015.
Comparison Retailing
5.35
As identified in the Cheshire Update (2011), all comparison goods facilities in Northwich retain 5.9% of
comparison goods expenditure within the defined Study Area (i.e. Cheshire wide and beyond). From
Northwich’s primary catchment (Zones 2 and 6), the same facilities attract 31.4% and 30.7%
respectively, with a small level (6.3%) of trade drawn from Zone 3.
28
5.36
After updating the population and expenditure forecasts, WYG has reassessed the potential capacity
for new comparison goods floorspace up to 2021. By ‘rolling forward’ Northwich’s overall market share
it is possible to examine the likely comparison goods floorspace required in order to maintain its
current market share (at a level of approximately 5.9% of all comparison goods expenditure within the
defined Study Area). As before the exercise does not take into account any growth in special forms of
trading (e.g. internet sales) and allows for modest levels of improved productivity of existing
floorspace. It is forecast that between 2011 and 2021, an additional £116.8m will be available for
comparison goods shopping within Northwich.
5.37
This is reduced from that previously found in the Cheshire 2011 Study, whereby at 2021 capacity was
estimated to be £126.9m. This change is a direct result of the more recent retail expenditure growth
forecasts which assume that growth will not be as significant over the same period.
5.38
On this basis, Table 5.4 (Revised Table NW.05) sets out the estimates the available capacity for
additional comparison goods floorspace in Northwich to 2021.
Table 5.4: Revised Table NW.05: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure –
Northwich
Year
Benchmark Turnover
– £m
Expenditure Available
- £m
Surplus Expenditure
- £m
2011
2015
2016
2021
265.1
275.8
280.0
301.6
265.1
321.8
338.8
418.4
0.0
45.9
58.9
116.8
Notes:
5.39
1
Allows for increased turnover efficiency of +1.0% per annum between 2011 and 2015 and +1.5% per
annum thereafter
2
Assumes constant market share 5.9% within the Study Area
At 2007 prices
In floorspace terms, although dependent upon the end operator, Table 5.5 (Revised Table NW.06)
provides a breakdown of potential floorspace requirements resulting from the identified capacity.
29
Table 5.5: Revised Table NW.06: Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in Northwich
– Comparison Goods
Year
£m
2011
2015
2016
2021
Notes:
5.40
0.0
45.9
58.9
116.8
Comparison Goods
Floorspace Requirement
Min1*
Max2*
0
8,786
10,145
20,130
0
14,644
18,214
33,549
1
- Average sales density assumed to be £5,000/sq m (based on the average sales density of the leading
retailers as identified by Mintel Retail Rankings 2009)
2
- Average sales density assumed to be £3,000/sq m
* - Allows for increases in turnover efficiency of +1.5% per annum
At 2007 Prices
Although dependent upon the type of comparison goods retail floorspace coming forward, the
identified capacity equates to a potential floorspace requirement by 2015 for between 8,790 sq m and
14,640 sq m (net) of additional comparison goods floorspace (or between 12,550 sq m and 20,900 sq
m gross2) within Northwich. This requirement is identified to increase to between 20,130 sq m and
33,550 sq m (net) by 2021. This 2015 capacity is comparable to the proposed comparison sales area
of 13,262 sq m (net) currently anticipated as part of the Baron’s Quay scheme. Potentially there could
be between 3,996 sq m (net) additional comparison goods floorspace within the supermarket element
of the scheme depending upon the end operator. WYG are aware that there is a current extant
planning permission for 2,871 sq m (net) of new comparison goods retailing at Leicester Street, which
if built represents between 19% and 32% of the capacity identified to 2015.
Turnover of Proposed Development
5.41
In seeking to consider the potential impact of the proposed development at Baron’s Quay on existing
shopping patterns within Northwich and on trade in the wider area it is important to estimate the
expected turnover of the proposed development and how this compares to anticipated future needs.
Convenience Turnover
5.42
As highlighted previously, the proposed development is expected to be occupied by one of the four
leading supermarket operators within the UK. Notwithstanding the fact that both Tesco and
Sainsbury’s are already represented in Northwich, it is clear from the above analysis that both stores
2
Assumes that net floorspace is 70% of gross
30
are trading extremely well and both operators may consider relocating to the proposed supermarket
element of Baron’s Quay due to provide a more modern and larger format store. Therefore, for the
purposes of this assessment it has been assumed that Asda, Morrison, Sainsbury’s or Tesco may
occupy the proposed development. Each of these operators will sell convenience goods together with
a range of comparison goods (e.g. household goods, cosmetics, clothing, etc.) that is now
commonplace in modern large-format supermarkets.
5.43
In this respect, Broadway Malyan estimates that the gross internal floorspace of the supermarket
component will 11,028 sq m. For the purposes of this assessment it has been assumed that some
7,991 square metres (equating to 72 per cent) will then be used be used for the sale of goods. This
broadly reflects the operating model of the four leading supermarket operators.
5.44
To then estimate the amount of floorspace used for the sale of convenience goods WYG would usual
draw on convenience/comparison sales floorspace ratios provided by Verdict (2010) for the four
leading operators. However, these are based on national averages of operator’s portfolios across the
UK, given the large nature of the supermarket it is clear that the proposed store will need to be based
on a significant level of comparison goods retailing Therefore, given the scale, and examples
elsewhere, WYG has assumed that the proposed floorspace will be split equally between convenience
and comparison goods as operators are unlikely to sell such as high proportion of floorspace for
convenience goods given the size of the proposed supermarket.
5.45
Using an equal floorspace figure, WYG has been able to estimate the potential area for the sale of
convenience goods for each operator accordingly as shown in Table 5.6 below.
Table 5.6: Potential Convenience Goods Sales Floorspace of Supermarket
Net Sales
Convenience
Net Sales (sq m)
Sales Density (£
per sq m)
2011
Asda
7,991
3,996
11,330
Morrisons
7,991
3,996
11,683
Sainsbury’s
7,991
3,996
10,440
Tesco
7,991
3,996
11,606
Operator
Source: Table 1, Appendix 4.
31
5.46
As no operator is yet secured for the proposed supermarket unit, WYG has tested the potential
turnover of the unit based on the four operators outlined above. To do this, WYG has relied on
benchmark turnover figures provided by Verdict (2010) 3 for the four leading operators, which are
shown in Table 5.7 below. The average sales density has been adjusted to reflect increased
productivity at a rate of 0.2% per annum.
5.47
WYG estimate that if Asda secured the supermarket at Baron’s Quay then the potential convenience
goods benchmark turnover of the store would be £45.6m at 2015, increasing to £45.7m by 2016 and
£46.2m by 2021. In comparison, Morrison’s potential turnover is estimated as the highest at £47.1m
at 2015 increasing to £47.2m at 2016 and £47.6m at 2021.
Table 5.7: Potential Benchmark Convenience Goods Turnover of the Proposed
Supermarket
Sales
Density (£
per sq m)
(2011)
Turnover 2015
(£m)
Turnover 2016
(£m)
Turnover 2021
(£m)
Asda
11,330
45.64
45.73
46.19
Morrisons
11,683
47.06
47.15
47.62
Sainsbury’s
10,440
42.05
42.13
42.56
Tesco
11,606
46.75
46.84
47.31
Operator
Source: Table 1, Appendix 4.
5.48
As highlighted previously, the estimated convenience goods capacity in Northwich at 2015 is £91.2m
which is significantly more than the estimated turnover (£42.1m to £47.1m) of the one of the potential
operator likely to be secured at Baron’s Quay. Therefore, it is clear that there is more than sufficient
capacity to accommodate a new large supermarket in Baron’s Quay in the short to medium term.
5.49
However, two of the leading operators (Sainsburys and Tesco) are already located within Northwich
and could either provide a second store or would relocate their exiting store to the new development.
Clearly each option would have a different outcome in terms of meeting the identified need and the
overall impact arising from the development.
3
Verdict UK Food & Grocery Retailers, 2010
32
5.50
Therefore, in terms of the identified capacity, WYG has assessed a number of scenario’s depending
upon the occupation of the proposed supermarket at Baron’s Quay.
5.51
The Sainsbury’s store is located at the edge-of-centre Albion Retail Park off Venables Road less than
200 metres from the Baron’s Quay site and has a convenience goods sales area of 2,205 sq m. In
comparison, the Tesco store is located out-of-centre on Manchester Road and has a convenience
goods sales area of 1,764 sq m. WYG have assumed two potential scenario’s for either operator,
whereby the first is that they will relocate to Baron’s Quay and cease their existing operations. The
second scenario assumes that they open a new store at Baron’s Quay and retain their existing stores
well.
5.52
In terms of the potential for Asda and Morrison’s to occupy the supermarket unit at Baron’s Quay,
WYG has treated these as new entrants to the Northwich market and therefore both would be
additional new stores.
5.53
The first scenario relates to the Asda securing space at Baron’s Quay. Drawing on the estimated
benchmark turnover of a potential Asda store, Table 5.8 below, shows the potential turnover against
the estimated capacity identified in Northwich. At 2015 when the supermarket will be implemented,
WYG estimate that the residual capacity would by £45.6m; this would increase to £45.7m by 2016 and
£46.2m by 2021. Therefore, the introduction of Asda would only absorb 50% of the identified capacity
at 2015 and would still leave sufficient quantitative need (£45.6m) for another convenience operator
to be provided within Northwich.
Table 5.8: Scenario 1: Asda Store Capacity
Year
2011
2015
2016
2021
5.54
Capacity (£m)
Convenience Goods
Turnover (£m)
Residual Capacity (£m)
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
45.6
45.7
46.2
45.6
49.3
55.3
The second scenario relates to Morrison securing the supermarket and trading at a benchmark
turnover of £47.1m at the year of implementation increasing to £47.6m by 2021. Table 5.9 below,
shows this potential turnover against the estimated capacity identified in Northwich. At 2015 when the
33
supermarket will be implemented, WYG estimate that the residual capacity would by £44.1m; this
would increase to £47.8m by 2016 and £53.9m by 2021. The introduction of Morrison’s would absorb
52% of the identified capacity at 2015 and would still leave quantitative need (£44.1m) for another
smaller convenience operator to be represented in Northwich.
Table 5.9: Scenario 2: Morrison Store Capacity
Year
Capacity (£m)
Convenience Goods
Turnover (£m)
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
47.1
47.2
47.6
44.1
47.8
53.9
2011
2015
2016
2021
5.55
The third scenario (3a) relates to securing a new Sainsbury’s store at Baron’s Quay. For this scenario
WYG has assumed that the supermarket would trade at a benchmark turnover of £42.1m at the year
of implementation and increase to £42.6m by 2021. This scenario assumes that the existing store will
cease trading. WYG has assumed that the existing benchmark turnover will be transferred directly to
the new store and therefore there will be an uplift in turnover as a result of the larger store. WYG
estimate that at 2015 and 2016 the uplift in benchmark turnover will be £18.9m, increasing to £19.1m
by 2021. At 2015, when the supermarket will be implemented, WYG estimate that the residual
capacity would by £72.3m; this would increase to £76.1m by 2016 and £82.4m by 2021. The
relocation of Sainsbury’s would absorb just 21% of the identified capacity at 2015 and would still leave
sufficient quantitative need (£72.3m) for another convenience operator to be represented in
Northwich.
Table 5.10: Scenario 3a: Sainsbury’s Relocation Store Capacity
Year
Capacity
(£m)
2011
2015
2016
2021
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
Convenience Goods
Existing
Proposed
Uplift in
Turnover Turnover
Turnover
(£m)
(£m)
(£m)
23.0
23.2
23.3
23.5
42.1
42.1
42.6
18.9
18.9
19.1
34
Residual
Capacity
(£m)
72.3
76.1
82.4
5.56
In addition, to Scenario 3a, WYG has also considered the potential (Scenario 3b) if Sainsbury’s were to
relocate to the new supermarket in Baron’s Quay but also retain trading at their existing store at
Albion Road Retail Park. After consideration of the potential turnover and the existing benchmark
turnover the existing Sainsbury store, WYG has been able to estimate whether there is any residual
capacity in Northwich. At 2015 when the new supermarket will be implemented, WYG estimate that
the proposed store would have a benchmark turnover £42.1m (based on increased productivity of
1.02% per annum) WYG estimate that the residual capacity would be £49.1m; this would increase to
£52.9m by 2016 and £58.9m by 2021. The two Sainsbury’s stores would absorb 54% of the identified
capacity at 2015 and would still leave sufficient quantitative need (£49.1m) for another convenience
operator to be represented in Northwich. Notwithstanding the above analysis, WYG would advise that
it is unlikely that Sainsbury’s would look to trade two stores in close proximity to one another.
Table 5.11: Scenario 3b: Sainsbury’s and Retention of Existing Store
Year
2011
2015
2016
2021
5.57
Convenience Goods
Capacity (£m)
Turnover of
Proposed (£m)
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
42.1
42.1
42.6
49.1
52.9
58.9
The fifth scenario relates to securing a new Tesco at Baron’s Quay, for this scenario WYG has
assumed that the supermarket would trade at a benchmark turnover of £46.8m at the year of
implementation and increase to £47.3m by 2021. This scenario assumes that the existing store will
cease trading through a relevant legal agreement with the operator. WYG has assumed that the
existing benchmark turnover will be transferred directly to the new store and therefore there will be a
uplift in turnover as a result of the larger store. WYG estimate that at 2015 the uplift in benchmark
turnover will be £26.2m, increasing to £26.4m by 2021. At 2015 when the supermarket will be
implemented, WYG estimate that the residual capacity would by £65.0m; this would increase to
£68.9m by 2016 and £75.1m by 2021. The relocation of Tesco would absorb 29% of the identified
capacity at 2015 and would still leave sufficient quantitative need (£65.0m) for another convenience
operator to be introduced in Northwich. However, in reality it is likely that the existing store will
continue to over trade above their national benchmark.
35
Table 5.12: Scenario 4a: Tesco Relocation Store Capacity
Year
Capacity
(£m)
2011
2015
2016
2021
5.58
Convenience Goods
Existing Proposed
Uplift in
Turnover Turnover
Turnover
(£m)
(£m)
(£m)
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
20.5
20.6
20.7
20.9
46.8
46.8
47.3
Residual
Capacity (£m)
65.0
68.9
75.1
26.2
26.1
26.4
The last scenario is similar to 4a above, but WYG has also considered the potential if Tesco store were
to relocate to the new supermarket in Baron’s Quay but also retain trading at their existing store at
Manchester Road. After consideration of the potential turnover and the existing benchmark turnover
the existing Tesco store, WYG has been able to estimate whether there is any residual capacity in
Northwich. At 2015 when the new supermarket will be implemented, WYG estimate that the proposed
store would have a benchmark turnover £46.8m (based on increased productivity of 1.02% per
annum) WYG estimate that the residual capacity would by £44.4m; this would increase to £48.2m by
2016 and £54.2m by 2021. The two Tesco stores would absorb 51% of the identified capacity at 2015
and would still leave a quantitative need (£44.4m) for another convenience operator to be
represented in Northwich. WYG advise that unlike the above Sainsbury’s scenario, and given
examples elsewhere it is more likely that Tesco may consider trading at both their existing and the
proposed new store given the distance of the existing store from the town centre.
Table 5.13: Scenario 4b: Tesco Relocation and Retention of Existing Store
Year
2011
2015
2016
2021
5.59
Convenience Goods
Capacity (£m)
Turnover of
Proposed (£m)
87.1
91.2
95.0
101.5
46.8
46.8
47.3
44.4
48.2
54.2
The above analysis clearly demonstrates that when applying either of the above six scenarios, a
quantitative need still exists for a new supermarket to be introduced in Northwich even after the
introduction of a new store at Baron’s Quay. WYG would also note that if the Council secure either
Sainsbury’s or Tesco at Baron’s Quay, then it will do little to address the existing qualitative need to
enhance the range of convenience goods facilities in Northwich nor address the current over trading
36
that currently exists. The introduction of Morrison’s is more likely to absorb a higher proportion of the
identified need but will still provide scope for new convenience goods provision to be introduced to
Northwich.
Comparison Turnover
5.60
As set out in Section 3 of this report, Baron’s Quay will mainly focus on the delivery new comparison
goods retailing. However, there will also be an element of comparison goods floorspace within the
proposed supermarket that will also need to be considered.
5.61
With regard to the comparison goods element of the proposed supermarket, WYG has again
considered the potential turnover of each of the four leading supermarkets (as identified by Verdict).
Based on applying the sales density (taken from Verdict) to the potential comparison goods sales area
of each operator, WYG has estimated the potential comparison goods turnover for each store.
5.62
As in estimating the level of convenience sales area, WYG has assumed that half of the floorspace will
be allocated for the sale of comparison goods sales given the proposed scale of the supermarket. WYG
has therefore been able to estimate the potential area for the sale of comparison goods for each
operator accordingly as shown in Table 5.14 below. WYG would note that there are no examples of
either Morrisons or Sainsbury’s occupying such large format stores.
Table 5.14: Potential Comparison Goods Sales Floorspace of Supermarket
Net Sales
Comparison Net
Sales (sq m)
Sales Density (£
per sq m)
2011
Asda
7,991
3,996
7,778
Sainsbury’s
7,991
3,996
7,168
Morrisons
7,991
3,996
7,809
Tesco
7,991
3,996
8,546
Operator
Source: Table 2a, Appendix 4.
37
5.63
WYG has then used benchmark turnover figures provided by Verdict (2010)4 for the four leading
operators, which are shown in Table 5.15 below. The average sales density has been adjusted to
reflect increased productivity at a rate of 1.5% per annum to 2021.
Table 5.15: Potential Comparison Goods Turnover of the Proposed Supermarket
Sales
Density (£
per sq m)
(2011)
Turnover 2015
(£m)
Turnover 2016
(£m)
Turnover 2021
(£m)
Asda
7,778
32.98
33.48
36.07
Sainsbury’s
7,168
30.40
30.86
33.24
Morrisons
7,809
33.12
33.62
36.21
Tesco
8,546
36.24
36.79
39.63
Operator
Source: Table 2a, Appendix 4.
5.64
WYG estimate that if Asda secured the supermarket at Baron’s Quay then the potential comparison
goods turnover of the store would be the second lowest at £33.0m at 2015, increasing to £33.5m by
2016 and £36.1m by 2021. If Sainsbury’s secured the supermarket then WYG estimate the potential
comparison goods turnover would be the lowest at £30.4m at 2015, increasing to £30.9m at 2016 and
£33.2 by 2021. The highest turnover is estimated to be Tesco at £36.2m in 2015 increasing to £36.8m
at 2016 and £39.6m in 2021.
5.65
In terms of the other units identified for comparison goods retailing, it is evident that the Baron’s
Quay development is principally designed to rejuvenate Northwich as a comparison goods shopping
destination through the introduction of extensive new shopping facilities.
5.66
In order to estimate the likely turnover of the comparison goods facilities proposed, (excluding the
supermarket) Broadway Malyan estimate the gross internal floorspace will be 18,945 sq m in both
phases. WYG have then assumed that the net sales area would represent 70% of the gross internal
area with 13,262 sq m used for the sale of comparison goods.
5.67
As outlined previously, the scheme will be phased with the main development block comprising the
supermarket and department store (Phase 1 a being implemented by 2015 with the remaining Phase 1
(b) and Phase 2 being implemented by 2016). At this stage, similar to the foodstore, WYG are not
4
Verdict UK Food & Grocery Retailers, 2010
38
aware of who will occupy the comparison goods floorspace. However, based on experience and the
likely turnover of key operators, we have assumed an average sales density of £5,000 per sq m and
applied an increased productivity rate of 1.5% per annum up to 2021.
Table 5.16: Comparison Goods Turnover of Proposed Baron’s Quay
Sales Area
(£ per sq m)
(2011)
Turnover 2015
(£m)
Turnover 2016
(£m)
Turnover 2021
(£m)
Phase 1 (a)
2,792
14.8
15.0
16.2
Phase 1 (b)
5,539
29.8
32.1
Phase 2
4,930
26.6
28.6
71.4
77.0
Phase
Total
13,262
14.8
Source: Table 2b, Appendix 4 (may not add up due to rounding)
5.68
WYG estimate that the potential comparison goods turnover of the development will be £14.8m in
2015 when the first part (a) of Phase 1 is implemented. By 2016, when the remainder of Phase 1 (b)
and Phase 2 is complete, we estimate that the turnover will be £71.4m increasing to £77.0m by 2021.
5.69
In terms of the combined potential comparison goods turnover of Baron’s Quay (which incorporates
the potential comparison goods turnover of the supermarket) Table 5.17 sets out the likely total
comparison goods turnover depending upon the end operator of the supermarket.
5.70
In 2015, WYG estimate that the turnover will range between £45.2m and £51.1m depending on which
operator secures the supermarket unit. At 2016, when the remainder of comparison goods floorspace
is implemented this potential turnover will increase to between £102.3m and £108.2m. At 2021 (5
years after the implementation) the potential turnover will range between £110.2m and £116.6m
(depending on end supermarket operator).
39
Table 5.17: Combined Potential Comparison Goods Turnover
Turnover 2015
(£m)
Turnover 2016
(£m)
Turnover 2021
(£m)
Baron’s Quay + Asda
47.80
104.91
113.02
Baron’s Quay + Sainsbury’s
45.22
102.29
110.19
Baron’s Quay + Morrisons
47.94
105.05
113.17
Baron’s Quay + Tesco
51.06
108.22
116.58
Operator
Source: Table 2c, Appendix 4.
5.71
The potential turnover of the combined comparison goods retailing is likely to exceed the identified
capacity in the short and medium terms as shown earlier in this section (£45.9m at 2015, £58.9m at
2016 and £116.8m at 2021). The proposed turnover in relation to the identified capacity is shown in
Figure 5.1 below. The proposed development may therefore need to claw back expenditure that is
currently spent elsewhere, and this will be explored in more detail in Section 7.
£116.6
£113.2
£110.2
£113.0
£108.2
110
£104.9
BQ+Asda
BQ+Morrisons
BQ+SSL
BQ+TSL
Capacity
£105.0
120
£102.3
Figure 5.1: Identified Turnover of Scenario Versus Identified Capacity -2015 to 2021
100
90
80
£47.7
£45.0
50
£47.6
60
£50.8
£m
70
40
30
20
10
2015
2016
40
2021
5.72
In addition, Figure 5.2 below shows the level of proposed comparison goods floorspace (including
that within the proposed supermarket) compared to the level of minimum and maximum floorspace
capacity identified in Table 5.5 earlier in this section. It demonstrates that the proposed level of
comparison floorspace is well within the extent of the identified capacity through to 2016 and 2021
and therefore is clearly of an appropriate scale to the latent demand within the local area.
33,549
Figure 5.2: Proposed Comparison Goods Floorspace Versus Identified Floorspace Capacity
35,000
Minimum Capacity
maximum Capacity
30,000
BQ Comparison Goods Floorspace
8,656
10,145
15,000
10,000
20,130
18,214
20,000
14,427
sq.m (net)
25,000
5,000
2015
2016
2021
Qualitative Need
5.73
In addition to the above quantitative need for the Baron’s Quay scheme, WYG has also explored the
qualitative need. Drawing on the household survey which informed the Cheshire Retail Study Update,
a series of questions where asked about what improvements could be delivered to encourage people
to use a particular town centre. WYG through NEMS have extrapolated cross tabulations from the
survey to explore the results of people who use (or more importantly don’t use) Northwich.
41
5.74
Figure 5.3 below shows the most frequent responses that would encourage local residents to visit
Northwich more often, these were increased choice and range of shops (23%), improved quality of
shops (12%), improved leisure facilities (10%), better environment (7.2%) and improved street
cleaning (2.5%). The results clearly demonstrate that there is a qualitative need to improve retail and
leisure provision within Northwich.
Figure 5.3: Measures to Improve Visitor Trips to Northwich
25
23.1
20
15
%
12.1
10.0
10
8.3
8.4
8.7
7.2
5
0
Better
Cheaper / free Department
environment
car parking
store within
the town
centre
5.75
More parking
Improved
leisure
facilities
Improved
quality of
shops
Increased
choice and
range of
shops
From the survey, WYG has also been able assess which other town centres, regular users of
Northwich may use/visit as an alternative. The other most popular destinations were Chester (35%),
Ellesmere Port/Cheshire Oaks (14%), Macclesfield (11%), Nantwich (10%), Crewe (10%) and
Winsford (8%).
5.76
The results of the cross tabulations show that local residents would welcome improvements to retail
and leisure provision within Northwich which would be ultimately delivered by Baron’s Quay. Such
42
improvements to Baron’s Quay are likely to reduce the need of residents to travel further to other
town centres to satisfy their shopping needs.
Composite Analysis
5.77
With a clear quantitative need identified for the proposed development, WYG has also sought to
explore the qualitative need for the proposed development. To better understand the qualitative need
and the pressures facing Northwich as a strategic retail destination within the North West region, it is
important to consider why local people are choosing to visit other centres elsewhere rather than
Northwich. In 2006, previous research undertaken by WYG and the Council demonstrated that
Northwich, as a retail destination, had ‘lost its way’ and there was a need to re-position the centre to a
level which better reflects its previous status in the sub-regional/regional hierarchy.
5.78
To achieve this it was evident that a major new retail scheme would be required within Northwich
which would introduce a number of key national multiple retailers which in turn would add to the
overall attractiveness of the centre as a shopping destination.
5.79
To understand in more detail what modern town centre retail developments can bring to a centre (in
terms of new retail space and occupiers) WYG has reviewed a number of other town centres in the
north-west that have successfully introduced major retail-led developments in recent years which has
further enforced their shopping role and function. The centres include:
5.80
•
Manchester City Centre
•
Bury Town Centre
•
Liverpool City Centre
•
Wigan Town Centre
•
Warrington Town Centre
•
Workington Town Centre(Cumbria)
•
Altrincham Town Centre
A full list of retail and leisure operators secured in each of the respect new shopping centres is
provided in Table 1 in Appendix 8. Table 1 provides a list of floorspace configurations provided by the
Valuation Office Agency (VOA) as well as indicating which of the retailers are represented in (or not)
in Northwich.
43
Manchester Arndale Extension, Manchester
5.81
In 2006, Phase 2 (Winter Garden) to Manchester Arndale was completed, which includes creation of a
new two level precinct extension to the existing shopping mall. The Arndale lies in the heart of the city
and is one of the largest city centre covered shopping complexes in the UK with an average of
650,000 shoppers per week. It is strategically located between Selfridges, Marks & Spencer, The
Triangle, Printworks, Market Street and Piccadilly. The centre maintains a loyal shopper base attracted
by the strong retail mix. Key tenants include Next, Topshop, Apple, H&M and River Island. In
Appendix 8, WYG has listed all the main comparison goods retailers currently occupying space in the
new Arndale extension.
5.82
Of the 52 comparison goods retailers attracted to this development, only 6 of these are currently
present in Northwich town centre with another two located at Northwich Retail Park (Next and Sports
Direct). However, we recognise that certain retailers would not necessarily consider a presence in
Northwich and would only be attracted to regional centres such as Manchester and Liverpool.
5.83
From our analysis of the development, the average unit is approximately 785 sq m in size
demonstrating preference for larger format units which is now a significant requirement. Even if the
large anchor Next store is excluded from the Arndale extension, the average unit size is still 537 sq m
which is clearly still well above the average size of unit available within Northwich. By comparison
however, the average leisure unit within the development is 192 sq m.
5.84
Although the Arndale extension introduced a number of new retailers to Manchester City Centre, there
is no information available to compare what happened to Manchester’s market share once the
44
development was fully implemented. Clearly, the introduction of new retailers will have had a positive
impact and would have reinforced Manchester as a key regional shopping destination. However, it is
also evident that a number of retailers within the scheme relocated from elsewhere within the City to
secure more modern and larger premises. Retailers such as Next and Monsoon were able to secure
improve premises within the scheme but as a result, the retail locations where they were located
previously (such as King Street) lost certain key attractions which has affected their vitality.
Liverpool One, Liverpool
5.85
The much publicised Liverpool One was implemented by Grosvenor in 2008 and is one of the largest
shopping developments in the UK. The completed scheme created 130,064 sq m (1,400,000 sq ft) of
retail, 20,903 sq m (225,000 sq ft) of restaurants, cafes and bars, 2 hotels, 14 screen Odeon, 5 acre
park, 3,000 parking spaces and a new public transport interchange. The shopping mall offers over 160
high street retailers as well as two department stores (Debenhams and John Lewis).
5.86
Appendix 8, lists the 112 retailers that Liverpool One has secured in Liverpool City Centre. WYG have
identified that only 8 of these are currently present in Northwich town centre). The average unit size
is approximately 1,100 sq m again demonstrating retailer’s preferences for larger format units. Even if
the large anchors stores (Debenhams, John Lewis, Top Shop) are excluded, the average size is still
558 sq m which is comparable to that found in the Arndale extension in Manchester. The average
leisure unit size is approximately 476 sq m.
5.87
In terms of examining any ‘post impact’ issues, WYG is aware that GL Hearn is currently preparing for
Liverpool City Council and that this study and it is likely to be available summer 2011. WYG assumes
45
that the new study will assess, through new household survey evidence, the impact of Liverpool One
on shopping patterns since its introduction in 2008.
5.88
Notwithstanding the lack of quantitative evidence on whether shopping patterns have been positively
changed since Liverpool One’s introduction in 2008, DJ Deloitte has recently published A Strategy for
the Main Retail Area of Liverpool (February 2011). The strategy clearly recognises that Liverpool One
has dramatically changed the city as a retail destination with high quality national and international
tenants, improved footfall and well defined pedestrian circuits coupled with improved public realm and
management of the city centre. The strategy also endorses the utilisation of spaces for organised
events and activities as well as the successful joined up branding and promotion of Liverpool with the
development.
The Rock, Bury
5.89
The Rock was opened by Hammerson in 2010 and introduced 57,600 sq m of new retail development
and 10,200 sq m of new leisure development to the existing town centre. The Rock extends the
existing High Street through 60 new units and 1,250 new car parking spaces. The scheme is anchored
by Debenhams, Marks and Spencer, Next and River Island as well cinema, bowling, bingo and
supporting restaurants and bars attractions.
5.90
Appendix 8, lists 27 retailers that the Rock has secured in Bury town Centre. WYG have identified that
only 9 of these are currently present in Northwich town centre with just two located at out-of-centre.
The average unit is approximately 1,227 sq m in size, which is the second highest average size of the
examined centres. If we exclude the large Debenhams anchor store from the average, the average
size is still 607 sq m. The average leisure unit size is approximately 262 sq m.
46
5.91
WYG has sought to review information on post impact assessment of The Rock, and can confirm that
there is no direct comparable analysis been undertaken by the local planning authority (Bury Borough
Council). WYG note that DJ Deloitte (formerly Drivers Jonas) prepared Bury Retail Study Update in
2007 which examined the shopping patterns within Bury and the surrounding area and provided
evidence of future demand, based on household survey evidence. DJ Deloitte in 2010 was
commissioned to undertake a retail need assessment for the three towns in the Borough of Bury.
However, this has not been based on new household survey evidence and therefore no post
development analysis of The Rock’s impact on local shopping patterns has been obtained to establish
whether more sustainable shopping patterns have been delivered.
Grand Arcade, Wigan
5.92
The Grand Arcade was opened by Modus in 2007 and introduced 39,500 sq m of new retailing to the
town centre. The scheme also introduced 900 car parking spaces and is anchored by Debenhams,
Marks and Spencer, River Island, TK Maxx and Bhs.
5.93
Appendix 8, lists 31 retailers that were secured at the Grand Arcade. Of these just 6 are currently
present in Northwich town centre and two retailers which are both located at Northwich Retail Park
(Next and Sports Direct). The average unit is approximately 1,560 sq m in size, which is the highest
average size of the examined centres. The high average is due in part to the large Marks and Spencer
(4,685 sq m), Debenhams (9,450 sq m), Wilkinson’s (6,993 sq m) and TK Maxx (4,123 sq m). These
large space users have clearly influenced the average retail size. If the large Debenhams is excluded
47
from the total, the average retail unit size would still be 1,297 sq m. If we exclude all four large space
users specified above, then the average size is 858 sq m.
5.94
Again, no information is available on the impact of the proposed development.
Stamford Quarter, Altrincham
5.95
Stamford Quarter was opened in 2009 and involved the redevelopment of the town centre, with
37,000 sq m of new floorspace including 51 outlets. The scheme also introduced 740 car parking
spaces and is anchored by Debenhams Desire, H&M, House of Fraser, Waterstones, Next and Boots.
5.96
Appendix 8, lists the 18 retailers that were secured at the Stamford Quarter. Of these just 5 are
currently present in Northwich town centre and one retailer located at Northwich Retail Park (Next).
The average unit within the scheme is approximately 686 sq m in size. From consultations with the
agents for Stamford Quarter we are advised that there are current 6 vacant units, varying in size from
92 sq m to 500 sq m with one large (4,211 sq m) vacant unit.
5.97
Altrincham town centre is located within northern part of Zone 2 from the Study Area of the Cheshire
Update Study (2011) and clearly influences shopping patterns with Northwich’s immediate area (Zones
2 and 6). Altrincham is located just 21km to the north east of Northwich and is a half an hour drive
away. WYG found that at 2011 Altrincham attracted £66.9m from Zone 2 catchment which is 15.7%
of the available expenditure generated in the Zone.
5.98
WYG has sought to review information on post impact assessment of Stamford Quarter, and can
confirm that there is no direct comparable analysis been undertaken by the local planning authority
48
(Trafford Borough Council). WYG are aware that GVA Grimley prepared the Trafford Retail and Leisure
Study in November 2007 which examined the shopping patterns within the Borough drawing on
evidence from a household survey. However, the survey was undertaken before the completion of
Stamford Quarter which opened in 2008. WYG can confirm that the Council has yet to re-commission
any new survey evidence to assess the impact of the Stamford Quarter on local shopping patterns in
Altrincham.
Golden Square, Warrington
5.99
In May 2007, the existing Golden Square was subject to an extensive refurbishment and extension by
Land Lease, which delivered a 33,900 sq m extension. This involved 60 new units which has attracted
new high street brands such as Zara, Next, River Island, Top Shop, Oasis H&M and Principles. The
mall now provides 1,700 car parking spaces.
5.100
Appendix 8, lists 29 retailers that were secured at the Golden Square extension. Just 3 of the retailers
are currently present in Northwich town centre and 2 retailers located at Northwich Retail Park (Next
and Sports Direct). The average unit is approximately 1,009 sq m in size. If the Debenhams is
excluded from the total then the average retail unit size would still be 620 sq m. The scheme has
helped to attract 13 million visitors per year. From liaison with the agents for Golden Square, we are
advised that there are 12 vacant units within the shopping mall, and these are all within the old part
of the development.
5.101
Warrington is located just 20km to the north Northwich and is less than half an hour drive away. Using
survey evidence from the Cheshire Study, WYG estimate that at 2011 Warrington town centre
attracted £14.8m of comparison goods expenditure from Zone 2. In addition, Warrington also drew
49
£17.3m of comparison goods expenditure from Zone 6. The results show that facilities in Warrington
town centre influence shopping patterns within Northwich’s immediate catchment area and any
improvements to Northwich will help assist in claw back local expenditure if appropriate commercial
attractions can be secured at Baron’s Quay.
5.102
WYG has sought to review information on post impact assessment of the Golden Square
redevelopment. WYG can confirm that since Golden Square redevelopment opened in 2007, Martin
Tonks (MT) Town Planning has prepared a Quantitative Assessment Update in 2009, which updates
MT previous Quantitative Assessment from 2006. The study found that the comparison goods market
share for Warrington town centre increased from 42.9% in 2006 to 49.5% in 2009. MT attributed this
15% increase in market share to the improved retail offer at Golden Square. MT found that previous
expenditure leakage to the Trafford Centre and Manchester city centre has declined, as well as
expenditure leakage to Cheshire Oaks. Expenditure leakage to facilities in Liverpool, Northwich and
Altrincham remained constant to that found in 2006. However, there is clear evidence of an increase
in market share which has important messages for any future development at Northwich.
Washington Square, Workington
5.103
Between 2005 and 2006, Workington town centre was redeveloped through the £50million
Washington Square shopping centre by Harrison. The scheme involved 26,000 sq m of new retail
floorspace created in the town centre, which was anchored by a Debenhams department. The scheme
introduced new retailers such as a Debenhams department store a large Next store as well as River
Island, HMV and Laura Ashley. The scheme also introduced 430 new car parking spaces to the town
centre.
5.104
Appendix 8, lists 27 retailers that were secured at Washington Square. Of these, just 9 are currently
present in Northwich town centre and one retailer located at Northwich Retail Park (Next). WYG has
found that the average unit is approximately 625 sq m in size which is the smallest of the comparable
town centre scheme we have reviewed. If the Debenhams is excluded from the total, WYG found that
the average retail unit size would still be 371 sq m.
50
5.105
With Workington located in north Cumbria it does not influence shopping patterns within the
Northwich area, however, it does provide a comparable example of how improved shopping facilities
can be introduced to a town centre holding a similar position in the RSS hierarchy to Northwich.
5.106
As part of WYG’s West Cumbria Retail Study (WCRS) (2009), we provided commentary on the post
impact assessment of Washington Square. WYG reviewed shopping patterns in 2009 against and
compared them to those gathered as part of the West Cumbria Retail Review (WCRR) prepared by
Roger Tym (RTP) in 2003.
In comparing the results, overall WYG found that the overall comparison
goods market share for the town centre did not improve5. However, on closer inspection of the
survey evidence the market share for clothing and footwear goods did increase significantly from
27.2% in 2003 to 37.9% in 2009. WYG attributed this increase to the introduction of additional high
street fashion brands as part of Washington Square (as above Debenhams, Next, River Island etc (see
Table 1, Appendix 8). The study also showed that clothing and footwear shopping trips to Carlisle
(from the Workington catchment) reduced between 2003 and 2009 given the improved retail offer in
Workington.
5.107
The WCRS also found that Workington benefited from a much improved comparison goods sector
when compared to 2003 and had a strong representation of ‘top twenty’ retailers. The pedestrian
environmental and layout of the town centre was significantly improved.
5.108
Also the proportion of units now available within the centre (between 465 and 929 sq m) was well
above the national average in 2008. Prime Zone A rents also rose and investor confidence improved
5
WYG note that there were significant differences in the household survey methodology between the WCRS (2009) and the WCRR (2003)
and as such direct comparison should be treated with caution.
51
significantly whereby commercial retail yields declined from +10% in 2006 to between 6.75% and
7.75% in 2007 and 2008.
Ranking of Centres
5.109
Drawing on data held by Venuescore, which ranks 2,106 shopping destinations across the UK, we are
able to see whether the introduction of new shopping and leisure provision as discussed at the above
destinations has helped improve their ranking or score as assigned by Venuescore.
5.110
Table 5.18 below shows the ranking and score of each of the seven composite town centres at 2005
and 2010. This period allows WYG to review the score and ranking at a position both before and after
new major commercial retail development had been secured. With the exception of Altrincham, Table
5.1 below shows that between 2005 and 2010, each of the town centres has experienced both an
increase in its Venuescore as well as ranking position in the UK.
5.111
For example, in 2005 Liverpool Venuescore was 271 and was ranked 15th retail destination in the UK.
Five years later and after the introduction of Liverpool One, it has been allocated a Venuescore of 502
and is ranked 4th in the UK. Similarly Warrington, in 2005 had a Venuescore of 164 and a rank of 83rd,
following with the implementation of the Golden Square refurbishment and extension it now has a
Venuescore of 183 and is ranked 81st. Apart from the respective scores for Liverpool and Manchester,
Wigan has seen the biggest net increase in rank and Venuescore following the Grand Arcade scheme
opening in 2007.
52
Table 5.18: The Regional Shopping Hierarchy
Change
in Rank
20052010
Centre
Location
Grade^
Market
Position
Venue
Score
2010
Rank
2010
Venue
Score
2005
Rank
2005
Change in
Score 20052010
Manchester
Major City
Upscale
604
2
383
3
+ 221
+1
Liverpool
Major City
Upper Middle
502
4
271
15
+ 231
+ 11
Warrington
Regional
Middle
183
81
164
83
+ 19
+2
Wigan
Regional
Lower Middle
173
91
125
145
+ 48
+ 54
Bury (Centre)
Regional
Lower Middle
145
135
130
136
+ 15
+1
Workington
Major District
-
77
306
64
345
+ 13
+ 39
Altrincham
Major District
Middle
97
229
119
166
- 22
- 63
Northwich
Major District
Lower Middle
83
281
88
237
-5
- 44
^ The Location Grade ascribed to each centre is Venuescore’s own definition and should not confused with any definition or hierarchy set
out in planning policy
5.112
At the end of Table 5.18, Northwich’s Venuescore and rank is provided for comparative purposes.
Unsurprisingly, as no development has taken place within Northwich its current ranking is in decline by 44 places from 237th in 2005 to 281st in 2010.
5.113
The above analysis, demonstrates that where major commercial retail development has been
introduced to existing city or town centres, then there has been positive impacts on the economic
performance of the town. It is evident that if the Baron’s Quay redevelopment is not implemented
then the future economic outlook for Northwich is not particularly healthy. The centre’s lack of large
modern accommodation means that any opportunity to capture modern high street retailers will be
limited if not existent. Therefore, if Northwich is to achieve the required step change then it is evident
that this will only be achieve through a significant retail-led development well connected to the
existing primary shopping core.
5.114
The analysis of composite centres elsewhere in the north-west demonstrates that it is important to
provide larger retail units that will be attractive to securing major high street and fashion brands
which will create that critical mass of attractions that help draw shoppers to a particular centre. The
examples shown provide robust benchmark examples which can assist in developing the future retail
strategy for securing future retail tenants in Northwich.
53
6.0 CONSIDERATION OF POLICY EC15 – SEQUENTIAL APPROACH
Introduction
6.01
Policy EC15 requires that the sequential approach to site selection should be applied to all
development proposals for main town centre uses that are not in a centre and not in accordance with
an up-to-date development plan.
6.02
As highlighted previously, the Baron’s Quay site is located within the town centre boundary as defined
by the adopted development plan (Policy STC1 to STC4). It must also be noted that part of the site
(areas 10 to 15 of Phase 1 and areas 4 to 15 of Phase 2) is located within the primary shopping area
as defined by the adopted plan. In addition (and as highlighted in Section 2) the Baron’s Quay site
(as well as other sites) is also allocated for redevelopment (including retail) in the Vale Royal Local
Plan (2006) under Policy GS9A. The policy clearly states that any new retail at Baron’s Quay will be
regarded as an extension to the primary shopping area once developed. Figure 6.1 below shows the
site in the context of the defined town centre and primary retail area.
6.03
With the site allocated in the development plan, and with Northwich identified in the RSS as a centre
to accommodate significant new comparison goods retailing, WYG contend that the potential
redevelopment of Baron’s Quay does not have to satisfy the sequential approach as this assessment
was undertaken as part of the allocation process in the development plan, which we still consider is up
to date and covers the period to 2016.
54
Figure 6.1: Baron’s Quay in Relation to Defined Primary Retail Area & Town Centre
Boundaries
6.04
However, as set out in PPS46, a common difficulty in considering the application of the sequential
approach relates to sites like Baron’s Quay which are partially located within and partially outside the
defined primary shopping area (or primary retail area in the case of Vale Royal local plan). The
practice guidance accompanying PPS4 advises that the key considerations in such cases relate to
6
Planning For Town Centres, Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach (December 2009).
55
whether the PSA is defined in an up to date development plan and whether the proposal accords with
the defined strategy. Consideration should also be given to the degree of integration and linkage of
the site and the rest of the PSA when considering whether the site is ‘in-centre’ and whether it will
genuinely function as part of the PSA in the future as intended in Policy GS9A.
6.05
With this mind, the design of the Baron’s Quay scheme would appear to suggest that the scheme
could form a natural extension of the existing primary retail area as defined by the development plan.
The proposed development will certainly reinforce the role and function of Leicester Street as a
retailing area through the redevelopment of the existing built form and the provision of new modern
retail units. In addition, the scheme will create three new pedestrian linkages into the existing
primary retail area as well as creating a new pedestrian ‘circuit’ for the town centre.
6.06
The first access point will provide a new route through the removal of the Iceland store at 65-67
Witton Street, which will facilitate a pedestrian link into the western part of the development providing
direct access to the proposed sites 10 to 15 in Phase 1.
6.07
The second pedestrian access will be facilitated by the removal 15-17 Witton Street (Rymans/Sweet
Shop) which will create a direct link through the Phase 2 element of the scheme (Sites 1 to 11) which
provides a traditional street environment which will allow pedestrians to navigate through the scheme
up to the main development blocks (M&S and supermarket) and thus complete the pedestrian circuit.
6.08
The third pedestrian link will involve the removal of 39-41 High Street (McDonalds) which will facilitate
a pedestrian link to the leisure component of the redevelopment; it will also open up access to the
river waterfront along the River Weaver.
6.09
WYG consider that the proposed linkages between the proposal and the existing primary retail area
will ensure that the scheme will form an integral part of the retail core within the town centre. The
development will allow for a seamless extension of the built environment and provide outlets which
will satisfy modern retailer’s requirements.
6.10
Given the proximity of the site and measures designed to ensure that the scheme integrates with the
existing built and commercial frontages of the town centre, any search for sequentially preferable sites
should only be confined to other sites wholly contained within the primary retail area of Northwich
56
(defined by PPS4 as the primary shopping area), rather than other sites within the town centre or
beyond.
6.11
The three tests to be applied to potential sequentially preferable sites are whether they are: available
or likely to become available within a reasonable period of time; suitable for the type of development
proposed; and viable for the proposed development. Paragraph EC15.1 of PPS4 requires that
developers and operators should be flexible about their proposed and preferred business model in
terms of the scale and format of development, car parking provision and the scope for disaggregation.
In relation to the format of the proposed development, it is clear that there are no sites available
within the primary retail area of Northwich which could accommodate the level of proposed floorspace
and therefore in simple terms the site would clearly satisfy the sequential approach.
6.12
As highlighted previously, it is considered that the scale and mix of the proposed Baron’s Quay
development is necessary in order that it can re-establish Northwich as an important comparison
goods shopping destination and a true leisure destination in accordance with both the development
plan (VRLP and RSS) and the long established vision and aspirations for Northwich. This will assist in
attracting investment to Northwich after decades without the delivery of any significant retail and
leisure developments in the town centre due to the uncertainty over ground conditions which have
now been remedied. The Baron’s Quay scheme will also provide the opportunity to significantly alter
shopping habits and thereby attract more people back to Northwich. The reduction in the need for
local people to travel significant distances to competing centres will create more sustainable shopping
patterns locally and will bring about significant benefits to the whole community by providing an
enhanced choice and quality of retail and leisure units that are not currently available in the town.
6.13
In order to ensure that this ‘step change’ is secured, it is evident that disaggregating the scheme and
trying to locate it in different parts of the primary shopping area will not succeed. Every successful
town centre redevelopment scheme needs a strong anchor which creates the necessary footfall to
attract other retailers and leisure operators and encourage them to invest in the development.
Therefore, the scheme needs to create a sufficient level of critical mass that will not only deliver the
required scale of development that would attract new retail and leisure operators to the town centre
but will also be large enough to attract new shoppers to the town centre.
6.14
However, although WYG believe that there are robust and valid arguments to demonstrate why the
development satisfies the sequential approach, for completeness we have examined potential
57
opportunities within the Primary Shopping Area to examine whether there or not any of the units
proposed could be accommodated in a sequentially superior location. .
Sites within the Primary Shopping Area
6.15
Through our assessment of Northwich’s vitality and viability (Section 7 and Appendix 2), WYG has
identified a series of vacant outlets which may be comparable to the outlets proposed in the Baron’s
Quay redevelopment scheme.
Figure 6.2: Location of Vacant Units in Primary Retail Area
6.16
As set out in section 4, the development schedule for Baron’s Quay will deliver a variety of new retail
outlets ranging from 248 sq m (Site 5) to the large 2,990 sq m unit (Site 1) department store unit in
Phase 1 and units range between 184 sq m (Sites 12 and 14) and 842 sq m (Site 10) in Phase 2. As
58
set discussed in sections 3 and 4, the scheme has been designed to specifically emphasis the need to
provide larger sized units conducive to modern retailer requirements.
6.17
WYG has identified that there is a total of 20 vacant units within the designated primary retail area
ranging in size from approximately 40sq m to 460 sq m. Of these, 13 are located within the Weaver
Square Shopping Centre with two units located along Witton Street, 2 units on Market Street and 2
units on Church Street. On the basis that the units are vacant, we have assumed that they are
‘available’. Given the high number of vacancies within Weaver Square, a number of these are
adjoining and could theoretically be amalgamated. However, despite the opportunity of combining
units to make larger premises, it must be noted that 60% are less than 100 sq m in size and are
considered far too small to meet modern retailer requirements. This may also be one of the reasons
why the units remain vacant give the limited number of retailers that can operate from less than 100
sq m.
6.18
On closer inspection of the existing vacant units, only four are comparable to the type of units being
proposed within Baron’s Quay. These are:
59
No
1.
Address
5 Weaver Square
Former Operator
(if Known)
formerly Adams
1 Crown Street
Photo
220 sq m
(Witton Walk)
2.
Size
(gross)
former public house
270 sq m
(gross)
3
5-6 Weaver Square
formerly Quality Save
(Town Square)
4.
8 Weaver Square
(gross)
formerly Argos
260 sq m
(Town Square)
240 sq m
(gross)
60
6.19
Within Weaver Square, there are two instances where two/three vacant units abut each other. As a
result, the largest cumulative floorspace that could be provided is the adjacent former Quality Save
(no. 5-6) as well as unit nos. 2-3 and 4 which together provide an amalgamated footprint in the order
of 440 sq m gross. The second cumulative floorspace is provided by joining nos 15 and 17 Weaver
Square (Market Way) together to provide a combined footprint of 180 sq m. However, even these two
potential spaces, would still only represent a small proportion of the entire floorspace proposed at
Baron’s Quay. Whilst the opportunities could be considered being large enough to accommodate one
or two retail operators in the future, they would do little to deliver the step change required in the
development plan and provide the catalyst to alter local shopping patterns and retain increased levels
of available expenditure in the local area.
6.20
It is also important to note that although the units are available, as they are being actively marketed
by a variety of agents, two prominent ‘high street’ operators namely Argos and Quality Save have
relocated from the units to larger premises elsewhere. This confirms that even though they are the
largest units available within Northwich they still cannot provide for the ever increasing needs of
modern retailers for larger units. It is evident that Argos has moved to Northwich Retail Park
occupying a 760 sq m unit and Quality Save has moved to 28 Witton Street which is a 1,440 sq m
(gross) unit.
6.21
It is clear that the move has been drive by the desire of both operators to maximise their sales areas.
WYG would therefore question the viability of these existing units which are physically constrained, we
also note that quality of the units in Weaver Square are particular poor and would not be attractive to
modern national multiple retailers seeking new representation in Northwich.
6.22
The vacant unit at 5 Weaver Square (Witton Walk) was formerly occupied by Adams and has been
vacant since 2009. Although the unit is suitable and available it appears to have been on the market
for a considerable length of time with limited interest from national operators due to its size
restriction. Also the Weaver Square area has now lost significant pedestrian footfall as a result of key
tenants (Argos, Quality Save) moving from the precinct.
6.23
In terms of the vacant unit at 1 Crown Street, which is a former public house and would not
necessarily be suitable as a retail unit, would require extensive internal reconfiguration or even
complete redevelopment before being considered acceptable for retail uses.
61
6.24
From our analysis of the available vacant units within Northwich, it is evident that they are limited in
size, and are therefore unsuitable for modern retailer requirements. They do not offer viable or
attractive space for quality national retailers or operators that Northwich is seeking to attract through
the implementation of Baron’s Quay.
6.25
Also, when retailers are considering new locations within town centres it is not only the size of the unit
available that is important. Often many retailers will be very specific about where they are located
within the Primary Shopping Area and many would look to ‘feed off’ key attractors such as major
department stores (M&S, Debenhams, Primark, House of Fraser) or other key anchors such as large
foodstores. Therefore an isolated large unit within the PSA will not appeal to many retailers if they
are not surrounded by other key retailers that will generate footfall. This is why a major
redevelopment scheme like Baron’s Quay would prove so successful. Not only can it provide large
modern high quality retails units in an attractive environment but it will also include a number of key
anchors which help attract other retailers to the centre who may not have previously considered
Northwich as a trading location. This is why critical mass is fundamental to the success of the
scheme.
Conclusions regarding the Sequential Approach
6.26
Although WYG believe that it is not necessary to undertake a sequential approach (for the reasons
outline above) even if one was to undertake such an exercise, the search would be confined to sites
wholly within the primary retail area of Northwich town centre.
6.27
Our assessment has demonstrated that whilst vacant units exist within the primary retail area they do
not satisfy the tests of suitability or viability for the development proposed (or parts of it if
disaggregated). Although some individual units may be sequentially preferable, collectively they will
not create the step change required within Northwich to transform the centre as a comparison goods
shopping destination.
6.28
With this in mind and given the fact that the site, once developed, will form a natural extension to the
primary retail area, sequentially there is no better location within Northwich to deliver such a scheme.
The same conclusion was reached in the preparation of the development plan and led to the allocation
of Baron’s Quay as a key retail opportunity site within Northwich. Therefore, it is self-evident that the
proposed development satisfies the sequential test set out in Policy EC15 of PPS4.
62
63
7.0 CONSIDERATION OF THE EC16 – ECONOMIC IMPACT
Introduction
7.01
PPS4 requires planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in a centre and not in
accordance with an up-to-date development plan to satisfy six ‘centre’ impact considerations
(Paragraph EC16.1). Without wishing to repeat the points set out above in the sequential approach, it
is evident that the site is within the town centre boundary with parts of the proposal located within the
defined primary retail area. Therefore, there is a strong argument to suggest that the site is within a
defined centre – although technically (based on PPS6 definitions) part of the site is currently edge-ofcentre.
7.02
Furthermore, it must be noted that even if a development is defined as ‘in-centre’ paragraph 14.6 of
PPS4 states that: “An impact assessment dealing with the impacts set out in policy EC16.1 is also
required for planning applications in an existing centre which are not in accordance with the
development plan and which would substantially increase the attraction of the centre to an extent
that the development could have an impact on other centres.”
7.03
Clearly a development of this scale would significantly alter the attractiveness of Northwich Town
Centre, in fact that is on of the key aims. However, WYG contend that an impact test is not required
because the site is allocated as an extension to the existing town centre through a series of policies in
the development plan and therefore, is in accordance with an up to date plan where the relevant tests
have already been satisfied.
7.04
However, WYG recognise that the strength of the current retail and leisure economy is significantly
different to that tested in 2005 and 2006 when the baseline evidence for the development plan was
prepared. Therefore, it will be important to revisit the robustness of that evidence to ensure that the
scheme now being advanced at Baron’s Quay is still acceptable in terms of its potential impact on
vitality and viability despite the significant downturn in the economy and the re-forecasting of
expenditure growth.
7.05
Furthermore, the scheme now being progressed is also different to that considered previously with a
much larger foodstore element which hasn’t previously been tested. Therefore, the following section
64
of the report seeks to revisit the potential impact of the scheme (both positive and negative) in the
light of the most up to date evidence and more recent Government guidance.
Impact on In-Centre Investment
7.06
The first consideration relates to whether there is evidence of the proposal having an impact on
existing, committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment
area of the proposal.
7.07
As advised in Section 6 above, the site is a long term ambition of the Council and has been an
aspiration since the schemes inception as proposed in the Interim Planning Guidance in 2004. As a
result, the site was subsequently allocated in the local plan in 2006. Overall, WYG believe that the
development will have a positive impact on future investment in Northwich and will provide the
catalyst that the town centre requires to secure additional investment in the future. Clearly there has
already been significant public monies committed to the ground stabilisation programme which has
enabled this investment to now be realised.
7.08
As set out in Appendix 2, Table 1 outlines the regional hierarchy within the north-west. It
demonstrates that since 2007 Northwich’s rank has fallen from 237th to 281st by 2010. Northwich’s
rank has fallen by 44 places in just three years demonstrating that the stagnation of investment in the
centre has clearly contributed to its ongoing decline, as other centres improve. Without significant
and positive intervention this is decline is likely to continue. With the ground stabilisation programme
now complete, WYG believe that the opportunity to address the comparison goods retailing
deficiencies should be met through the redevelopment at Baron’s Quay
7.09
As set out in Section 5, WYG have looked at a number of centres in the north-west that have
benefited from significant retail and leisure development in recent years. We have shown the regional
centres of Liverpool and Manchester have both experienced major extensions to their retail cores
(namely Liverpool One and Arndale Extension respectively) and, as a consequence, they have both
experienced an increase in their ranking since 2005, where Manchester has moved from 3rd to 2nd and
Liverpool has moved from 15th to 4th, a significant shift. The results (Table 5.18) also demonstrate
that other important town centres (Wigan, Warrington and Bury) in the North West which have
secured new retail provision have all seen increases in their ranking position. Therefore, it is evident
that the introduction of significant retail led investment also brings in significant indirect investment in
65
other land uses including office, residential and leisure which are brought forward as a result of
improved investor confidence in the property market. WYG believe that Baron’s Quay will encourage
further investment in alternative land uses, as it will be perceived as an attractive place to live and
work and subsequently draws new investment to the town.
7.10
A good example of this, but on a much larger scale, was the opening of the new Bull Ring
development in Birmingham which included a new Debenhams store and a new Selfridges. Many
thought the impact of the proposed development would seriously undermine the future vitality and
viability of existing departments stores in Birmingham including the well established House of Fraser
store. However, in an attempt to make their store more competitive to reduce any impact, House of
Fraser invested over £10m refurbishing their store. This investment is unlikely to have occurred
without the competition from the Bull Ring development.
7.11
Another good example, closer to home, is the M&S in Liverpool. As M&S had an established store
within Liverpool and would not be moving into the Liverpool One scheme they responded to the
increased competition by embarking on a £22m refurbishment programme of their existing store to try
and maximise the benefits of the additional footfall that would be created by Liverpool One. The
refurbishment is now complete and the store has been transformed. Again it is not clear whether this
would have happened as quickly without the additional competition from Liverpool One.
7.12
These two examples demonstrate that whilst the initial reaction is that major investment in a centre
can cause harm to existing retailers, it is evident that quite the opposite can happen where the
transformation of one part of the centre forces other parts of the centre to re-invest and improve their
offer so they can compete effectively.
7.13
Clearly, the introduction of new comparison as well as convenience retailing will increase the level of
footfall in Northwich town centre, especially in locations around Witton Street/Leicester Street. It will
also increase pedestrian activity at the following points where the Baron’s Quay scheme will interface
with the existing town centre. WYG believe that this have a positive impact on the following areas
indicated on Figure 7.1 below.
66
Figure 7.1: Key Strategic Impact Nodes
7.14
Such a dramatic increase in footfall will have a positive impact on the property market in these areas
between 0 to 25 metres from the main access points, as they become important thorough routes to
the Baron’s Quay scheme. WYG believe that these activity nodes will become attractive to future
operators/occupiers who may not be able to secure space in Baron’s Quay (because it is too expensive
or too large) and see these areas as the next best place to be located to take advantage of the footfall
arising from Baron’s Quay. All four nodes are located within the primary retail area of Northwich and
will therefore significantly strengthen activity within the primary retail area which accords with policies
STC1, STC2 and STC9.
7.15
Notwithstanding this, WYG note that outside these nodal points the positive impacts are likely to
diminish. However, WYG do not anticipate that footfall will decline significantly below existing
movements. Flows may reduce in areas around Weaver Square but this will not necessarily be a
direct result of Baron’s Quay. Weaver Square is already failing due to its poor current configuration
and environment which is not conducive to modern retailer requirements. This shift needs to be
considered against the net benefit that Baron’s Quay will bring to the wider town centre.
Notwithstanding this potential impact on Weaver Square, the benefits of Baron’s Quay significantly
out-weigh the further decline of the precinct. WYG note that the area currently benefits from a
67
positive planning policy approach through Policy GS9B, which seeks to deal with this area once
Baron’s Quay has been implemented. WYG would advise that Policy GS9B provides the Council with a
sufficient planning mechanism to redevelop this area at the relevant point in time. This approach
should be therefore be rolled forward and prioritised in any future local development framework
strategy dealing with Northwich town centre post Baron’s Quay. The success of this will ultimately
depend on the current land owners ambitions for Weaver Square. WYG would recommend that the
Council engage with the land owner at the earliest possible stage to ensure that any increase in
investor confidence as a result of Baron’s Quay can be progressed in the rest of the town centre.
7.16
Furthermore, we would expect a development of this scale to deliver significant investment in key
pedestrian routes into and out of the scheme. Therefore, although we expect the quality of the
environment to be of a high standard within the scheme, there is an opportunity for the development
to contribute to improvements beyond the development thereby improving the quality of the linkages
and securing further investment elsewhere in the town centre.
Impact on Vitality and Viability
7.17
The second consideration refers to the impact of the proposal on town centre’s vitality and viability,
including local consumer choice and the range and quality of the comparison and convenience retail
offer. Clearly, in this instance, the positive impacts of the proposed development on Northwich town
centre’s vitality and viability will be very substantial, with no obvious indication that there will be any
significant negative impacts. Whilst we anticipate that there may be certain retailers within the town
centre who decide to relocate into the new development (therefore potentially reducing the vitality of
other parts of the centre) given the limited number of end users in Northwich who are likely to do this,
any adverse impact will be minimal.
7.18
As highlighted in section 5, WYG believe that the introduction of larger retail units suitable for high
street and fashion brands will bring positive benefits to the town and will help the centre attract more
shoppers to the town due to an increased retail offer which is currently not available.
7.19
Table 7.1 illustrates the position of Northwich based on the Venuescore UK Shopping Index (2010)
and focussing on a sub-regional (north-west) extract. The index ranks 2,106 retail venues within the
UK (including town centres, stand-alone malls, retail warehouse parks and factory outlet centres)
based on current retail provision. Towns and major shopping centres are ranked using a
68
straightforward scoring system that takes account of the presence in certain of multiple
retailers/brands – including anchor stores, fashion operators and non-fashion multiples.
7.20
Northwich is ranked 281st out of the 2,106 shopping venues surveyed, which places it within the top
15 per cent of all UK shopping venues, although its position has fallen from its ranking as 237th since
2005. For the purposes of Venuescore it is identified as a ‘major district’.
7.21
Chester city centre, is one of the closest centres to Northwich and located approximately 29 kilometres
from Northwich town centre, is ranked 30th in the Venuescore Shopping Index (2010), placing it
within 2 per cent of all UK shopping venues. Other nearby centres include Warrington, Altrincham,
Runcorn and Winsford are all (located within approximately 20km from Northwich). The index records
‘Warrington as a ‘Regional Centre’, Altrincham is recorded as a ‘Major District’, Runcorn as a ‘District’
and ‘Winsford’ as a Minor District. Northwich is regarded by Venuescore as a higher order centre
relative to the surrounding town centres considered within the Update Cheshire Study (2011), which
reflects the planning hierarchy contained within the development plans.
69
Table 7.1: The Sub-regional Shopping Hierarchy
Market
Position
Venue
Score
2010
Rank
2010
Venue
Score
2005
Rank
2005
Change
in
Score
20052010
Change
in Rank
20052010
Centre
Location
Grade^
Manchester
Major City
Upscale
604
2
383
3
+ 221
+1
Liverpool
Major City
Upper Middle
502
4
271
15
+ 231
+ 11
Chester
Major Regional
Upper Middle
262
30
247
22
+ 15
-8
Warrington
Regional
Middle
183
81
164
83
+ 19
+2
Wigan
Regional
Lower Middle
173
91
125
145
+ 48
+ 54
Bury
Regional
Lower Middle
145
135
130
136
+ 15
+1
Crewe
Sub-Regional
Lower Middle
122
176
136
125
- 14
- 51
Cheshire Oaks
Sub-Regional
Upscale
121
178
100
210
+ 21
+ 32
Macclesfield
Sub-Regional
Middle
110
208
117
170
-7
- 38
Altrincham
Major District
Middle
97
229
119
166
- 22
- 63
Northwich
Major District
Lower Middle
83
281
88
237
-5
- 44
Wilmslow
Major District
Upscale
81
286
65
337
+ 16
+ 51
Workington
Major District
-
77
306
64
345
+ 13
+ 39
Ellesmere Port
District
-
57
432
59
386
-2
- 46
Runcorn
District
-
57
432
52
435
+5
+3
Congleton
District
-
49
512
53
425
-4
- 87
Winsford
Minor District
-
38
628
38
590
-
- 38
Nantwich
Minor District
-
36
667
44
514
-8
- 153
Knutsford
Minor District
-
30
794
1,383
1,623
13
+ 589
Sandbach
Local
-
19
1,192
921
1,045
21
- 271
Frodsham
Local
-
10
1,961
2,095
1,732
12
+ 134
^ The Location Grade ascribed to each centre is Venuescore’s own definition and should not confused with any definition or
hierarchy set out in planning policy
Top 20 Retailers
7.22
In addition to the composite analysis within section 4, with reference to Table 7.2, Northwich town
centre only contains six of the ‘Top Twenty Comparison Goods Retailers’ (including Boots, Superdrug
and Marks & Spencer), which are defined by Focus as the top 20 comparison goods multiples ranked
on the basis of average town centre sales for individual retailers. It should be noted, however, that
Focus is in the process of updating the list to account for the fact that both Woolworths and Rosebys
no longer exist. In addition, it is important to note that both Next and Argos are represented in
Northwich but in edge of centre or out-of-centre retail locations, with the latter recently relocating
from the Weaver Square.
70
Table 7.2: Top Twenty Retailers
Rank
Retailer
1
Boots
2
Marks & Spencer
3
Argos
4
Woolworths
5
Debenhams
6
John Lewis
7
WH Smith
8
BHS
9
Next
10
Dixons
11
Superdrug
12
Lloyds Pharmacy
13
Wilkinson
14
Co-op
15
Primark
16
New Look
17
HMV
18
Dorothy Perkins
19
Rosebys
20
Waterstones
Source: Focus (2010)
7.23
Baron’s Quay clearly provides an opportunity for new Top Twenty retailers as well as other well known
retailers to be introduced to Northwich and help enhance its position as a shopping destination in the
sub-region which will help retain more localised expenditure in the local area.
7.24
Other national multiple retailers represented at the edge of the centre include Sainsbury’s and Matalan
at Albion Retail Park. In addition, WYG note that a number of national multiples are located at
Northwich Retail Park located out-of-centre on Manchester Road; this includes Next, Sports Direct,
Argos7 and B&Q.
7.25
Figures 22 and 23 of Appendix 2 show the location of the multiple retailers and independent
retailers/operators in Northwich town centre. Unsurprisingly, the multiple retailers are generally
located along High Street and Witton Street, with the majority located on the western end of Witton
7
WYG note that Argos has recently relocated to Northwich Retail Park after occupying space in the Weaver Square.
71
Street closest to the Leicester Street nodal point. In addition, national multiples are also located in the
two retail parks (Albion Street and Chester Way), offering large format accommodation. The location
of the proposed access points to Baron’ Quay will clearly reinforce this area of the town centre.
7.26
Notwithstanding the concentration of multiple operators in the primary retail area (which is to be
expected) there are a number of independent operators trading within the primary retail area, but are
generally trading from smaller units. WYG note that there is a strong and diverse independent sector
within the town centre which provides a unique and important retail offer and provides a more local
feel to the town centre. Figure 23 (Appendix 2) demonstrates that there is a higher propensity of
independent operators trading in the more secondary locations in the eastern end of Witton Street,
which is an area also dominated by smaller units. As discussed in section 5 of this report, if Northwich
is to attract new shoppers then it is important that multiple retailers are secured to the town to
provide a strong trading base. However, a balance must be struck whereby the development should
be positioned to ensure that independent traders can benefit from the investment so that a diverse
and vibrant shopping experience can be provided and Northwich does not become a ‘cloned’ town
centred.
Unit Sizes in Northwich
7.27
As discussed in section 5, if Baron’s Quay is to appeal to key national operators it will be important to
ensure that the appropriate type of commercial accommodation are available. However, to understand
why Northwich is currently unable to accommodate such retailers WYG has reviewed the size and
configuration of the existing commercial stock within the centre. Table 7.3 below provides a
summary of the composition of Northwich in terms of the size of existing town centre units, taken
from the GOAD (updated by WYG) from 2011 in relation to the UK average.
7.28
Table 7.3 confirms that Northwich has a high proportion of small units (<93 sq m) at 50% compared
to a UK average of 41%. The proportion of mid sized units (233 sq m to 464 sq m) is also well below
the respective national average and this is important given that this is the range that many national
retailers would be focusing on.
72
Table 7.3: Size of Units in Northwich Town Centre
Size of Unit (ground floor area)
Number of Units
Northwich
50.0%
34.0%
6.9%
5.3%
1.1%
1.9%
0.0%
0.8%
100.0%
131
89
18
14
3
5
0
2
262
Under 93 sq m (1,000 sq ft)
94-232 (1,000-2,499 sq ft)
233-464 sq m (2,500-4,999 sq ft)
465-929 sq m (5,000-9,999 sq ft)
930-1,393 sq m (10,000-14,999 sq ft)
1,394-1,858 sq m (15,000-19,999 sq ft)
1,859-2,787 sq m (20,000-29,999 sq ft)
Above 2,787 sq m (30,000 sq ft)
TOTAL
Proportion of Total (%)
UK
41.0%
38.6%
12.2%
4.9%
1.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
100.0%
Diversity of Use
7.29
The Practice Guidance accompanying PPS4 states that the diversity of uses within a town centre
makes an important contribution to its vitality and viability. The total gross floorspace of Northwich
town centre is 56,580 sq m (GOAD 2011) which is contained within 262 units. The total floorspace is
divided into the uses identified in Table 7.4, as informed by inspections of the centre undertaken in
April 2011.
Table 7.4: Diversity of Use in Northwich town centre
Existing Floorspace
(sq m)
Proportion of Total
Floorspace (%)
UK Average of
Floorspace (%)
15,560
21,610
2,410
27.5%
38.2%
4.3%
14.4%
36.9%
7.0%
5,710
4,480
6,810
56,580
10.1%
7.9%
12.0%
100.0%
22.8%
8.5%
9.8%
100.0%
Convenience Sector
Comparison Sector
Retail Service Sector
Leisure Services Sector
Financial and Business Services
Vacant
TOTAL
Source: GOAD Report and site visit (April 2011)
7.30
The town centre includes the existing Sainsburys store located within Albion Retail Park. It has a
gross floorspace of 5,050 sq m. There is also a Lidl store on Chester Way comprising 1,760 sq m and
73
an Aldi store on Leicester Street comprising 1,510 q m. Other operators include Iceland (780 sq.) and
Quality Save (1,440 sq m) both on Witton Street and Co-op (1,390 sq m) on Chester Way. There is
also a food hall within the Marks and Spencer on Leicester Street. The remainder of the convenience
retail sector in Northwich is made up of considerably smaller units and independent operators
including off licences, newsagents, a butchers shop and grocers etc. The proportion of convenience
floorspace is significantly above the national average (27.5% as compared to 14.4 per cent).
However, over 60% of the overall figure (15,560 sq m) is accounted for by the four largest units
(Sainsbury’s, Aldi, Lidl and Quality Save) with Sainsbury’s alone representing nearly a third of all
floorspace. The proportion of convenience floorspace has increased mainly due to the introduction of
Aldi and Lidl to the town.
7.31
Comparison uses contribute to 38.2% of the total floorspace, which is marginally above the national
average (at 36.9%). The size of these retail units varies from 30 sq m gross to 3,670 sq m gross
(Matalan), the latter is accommodated on Albion Retail Park. Marks and Spencer also occupy a large
(1,780 sq.m) unit on Leicester Street. There is a low proportion of national multiple comparison
goods retailers in Northwich, despite this there is an above representation of comparison units and
floorspace when compared to the respective national averages. Drawing on evidence from 2001
GOAD (Table 6, Appendix 1), Northwich’s proportion of comparison floorspace was 49.2% which at
the time was below the national average (54%). Since 2001, the UK has seen a reduction in the
proportion of comparison floorspace in the traditional town centres, often due to growth in service
provision. The level of comparison units in the town centre has decreased from 138 units to 98 units
since 2001, a 29% decrease; similarly the level of comparison goods floorspace has decreased from
29,170 sq m to 21,610 sq m since 2001 representing a 26% decrease
7.32
Overall, service uses are not well represented in the centre at 22.3% (12,600 sq m gross) of the total
floorspace of the town centre, significantly below the national average of 45.9%. The majority of retail
service units (17 units out of a total of 34) fall within the category of health and beauty (including
hairdressers and tanning salons). Five opticians are also present, together with Northwich Post Office
and four travel agents. The proportion of leisure service floorspace in the town centre is below the
national average (at 13.0% in contrast to 21.7%), and the most common uses within this category are
cafes (making up 10 units out of a total of 34 units) closely followed by fast food take-aways
(representing 9 out of 34 units). There are also four betting offices and two amusement arcades
(Bingo) and five public houses. The proportion of financial/business services floorspace is marginally
below the national average (at 7.9% rather than 8.5%), and there is representation from several high
74
street banks, including Lloyds TSB, Santander (2), Halifax, Barclays, HSBC and Nat West. The survey
found that the most dominant category is property services (Estate Agents) (making up 12 (or 33%)
of the 34 units). The category also includes four building societies and ten financial and legal services.
Since 2001, the proportion of service floorspace has increased from 19% to 22.3% but this growth
has been well below that experienced across the UK, where service (proportion of floorspace) has
grown from 31.4%8 in 2001 to 38.4% in 2010.
7.33
As can be seen from Table 7.4, the proportion of vacant floorspace within Northwich is just over 2
per cent points above the national average (at 12.0% when compared with 9.8%). This floorspace is
distributed across 37 vacant units, as illustrated in Table 7.5, which represents an increase from 5
vacant units identified by GOAD in September 2009. Most (35%) of these units are located within
Weaver Square. Of the six vacant units in Weaver Square, three were previously occupied by national
multiples.
Table 7.5: Location of Vacant Unit
No. of Vacant
Units
8
Floorspace (sq
m)
690
High Street
4
610
Leicester Street
0
0
Weaver Square
13
1,830
Market Street
3
240
London Road
2
2,570
Other
7
870
37
6,810
Street Name
Witton Street
Total
Source: GOAD (updated by WYG in 2011). Vacancies are illustrated spatially in Tables 5 and 9 of Appendix 6
7.34
The distribution of these vacant units is shown in Figure 20 in Appendix 2.
7.35
Further analysis demonstrates that 21 (or 58%) of the 37 vacant units are under 90 sq m in size
which are often not suitable for modern retail practices. WYG considers that although Baron’s Quay
will have a positive impact on Northwich, the Council will need to consider a strategy to deal with the
high level of smaller vacant units present in the town centre. WYG do not believe that Baron’s Quay
will address this issue, nor should it directly. However, the Council need to carefully consider a
8
Includes Service and Miscellaneous categories from GOAD 2001 data.
75
strategy to pro-actively deal with more secondary areas vacancies may persist. Clearly, as the centre
of gravity shifts towards Baron’s Quay other, more peripheral areas such as Witton Street past Tabley
Street as well as Meadow Street are likely to become more vulnerable over time.
7.36
WYG would recommend that the secondary areas be regularly monitored to review land uses over
time. If it becomes clear that these areas are declining, then the Council may need to consider a
more flexible policy approach to these areas, which actively encourages other uses other than retail.
This approach would help embrace different land uses not necessarily associated with the town centre
This progressive approach can be delivered through Local Development Orders introduced in the
Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. This mechanism extends permitted development rights
which can include certain land uses rather than a more regressive approach of restricting land uses.
The use of Local Development Orders would be a much quicker and more efficient policy response
than waiting to update the policies in the local plan through the core strategy. WYG also note that this
approach is encouraged within the Government’s emerging localism agenda.
7.37
However, the vacancy issue is not just confirmed to secondary areas. 38% of vacant floorspace and
54% of vacant units are current within the primary retail area. 60% of these vacancies were less than
100 sq m in size, with only one vacant unit over 400 sq m. The proportion of vacant floorspace within
the primary retail area is 11.1% which is above the national average at 9.8%. The proportion of
vacant units within the primary retail area is 14.9%, which is significantly above the national average
of 11.7%, but is also above the whole town centre average which is 14.1.
7.38
In terms of the secondary area, there are 17 vacant units comprising a total of 4,250 sq m. The
proportion of vacant floorspace in the secondary areas is 12.7% which is above that found in the
primary retail area (11.1%) but the proportion of vacant units is 12.7% which is below the primary
retail area (14.9%). Vacancies in the secondary retail area (as well as the total vacancies) are
influenced by two large vacant units (former cinema and office building located on London Road in the
marina area of the town). Together these two buildings represent 38% of total vacant floorspace. If
these two units are excluded from any analysis, WYG estimate that the proportion of vacant
floorspace would only be 7.9% which is well below the national average of 9.8%.
7.39
Drawing on GOAD information from the 2001 Cheshire Study prepared by Chesterton, it is evident that
10 years ago there were just 18 vacant units, illustrating that vacancies have increased by 105%.
Vacancies in 2001 comprised just 2,020 sq.m compared to the current 6,810 sq m. In 2001, just 45%
76
of vacancies were less than 100 sq m. which when compared to the current 57% shows that the
incidence of smaller vacant units has increased by 26% or 12 percent points. This also reflects the
changing needs of modern retailers whereby smaller premises are less attractive.
7.40
The analysis demonstrates that although vacancies appear to have significantly increased in
Northwich, this is mainly due to inclusion of two large vacant buildings in secondary locations.
Furthermore, vacancies in the primary retail area are heavily influenced by the high incidence of small
units mainly in the Weaver Square shopping centre.
7.41
WYG do not believe that the introduction of Baron’s Quay will significantly increase the incidence of
vacant units, as it clear that current vacant units are not able to address future requirements of retail
operators which is a prime reason why Northwich is unable to attract new retailers. Indeed Baron’s
Quay will be marketed at capturing new retailers that are seeking representation in a managed
shopping environment. However, the Council need to mindful that there may be shift of national
operators who are already located in the town centre but want to secure larger, managed and better
configured space in Baron’s Quay. However, this shift will be dependent on existing lease agreements
and the ability for retailers to move. However, given the fact that there are a limited number of
multiple retailers in Northwich, WYG believe that this should not be considered a significant issue.
Furthermore, any relocation must be seen as a positive benefit given that other retailers such as Next
and Argos who could secure alternative premises in the town centre moved out altogether which is far
more damaging.
Accessibility
7.42
As set out in Appendix 2, the town centre is readily accessible on foot for those residents who live
nearby and pedestrians have good access to public and customer car parking located strategically
around the town centre. The primary retail area is pedestrianised providing a safe shopping
environment with no conflict with motorised vehicles. There are pedestrian crossing facilities located
on Chester Way as well as an underpass linking the town centre to the south. Pedestrian movement is
benefitted by the relatively level topography.
7.43
The town centre benefits from being located just 1.2km from the railway station providing direct
services to Chester and Manchester. Bus services are operated from the main bus interchange at
Watling Street located opposite Weaver Square Shopping Centre as well as local pick up along Chester
77
Way. The proposed Baron’s Quay scheme does not propose to reconfigure the existing train and
railway stations and therefore, we believe that existing public transport corridors will be safeguarded
and will ensure that pedestrian movement is not adversely affected around the town centre.
7.44
Car parking in the town centre is mainly provided through surface level parking. The principal town
centre car parks include the existing Baron’s Quay site (453 spaces), Memorial Hall (317 spaces) and
Leicester Street. The council operated car parks are free (with waiting restrictions). WYG believe that
the introduction of 1,224 spaces as part of the scheme will represent a net increase of approximately
780 spaces to the town.
7.45
One of the key benefits and attraction of the scheme will be the provision of ample high quality car
parking. Like major retail anchors, a high quality car park with ample spaces can act as a significant
draw. However, the management of car parking will be fundamental to the overall strategy,
particularly as shoppers in Northwich can already access free parking. The car parking will also have
to accommodate the needs of the foodstore operator who will clearly want to have dedicated spaces.
However, there has to be the ability for visitors to the foodstore to then be given the opportunity to
undertake a link trip with the rest of the town centre if the centre as a whole is to benefit from the
new parking facility.
Pedestrian Flows
7.46
Survey work has focused on observations regarding the general level of activity throughout Northwich
town centre. The areas around Leicester Street and Witton Street appear to be moderately busy with
pedestrian footfall diminishing as the distance increases from this central point. WYG believe (as
discussed in section 4) that the introduction of Baron’s Quay, and more specifically the proposed four
access points along Witton Street, will help reinforce this important nodal point but also help to
distribute pedestrian activity around the proposed pedestrian circuit. However, although Baron’s Quay
will reinforce the more centralised areas of the primary retail pitch, we do not believe (given the draw
of Baron’s Quay) that pedestrian flows will be improved in the more secondary areas or the easterly
areas of Witton Street. This may require further consideration as the design process develops.
78
Perception of Safety and Occurrence of Crime
7.47
WYG has obtained crime statistics for Northwich town centre through the Council, which are set out in
Figure 21 in Appendix 1. The statistics show that the highest occurrence of crime were along Chester
Way, High Street, Leicester Street, Witton Street and Venables Road.
7.48
In addition, to the statistics, and from our on-site observations, there was little evidence of graffiti,
vandalism or boarded-up and broken windows. There are no obtrusive or unattractive security
measures such as barbed-wire and roller shutters.
7.49
We believe that the introduction of a managed shopping environment, which will in part become a
critical element of the main retail activity; it is highly likely that enhanced surveillance and security
measures will be incorporated into the design of the scheme. Such measures should be designed into
the scheme from the offset to ensure that crime prevention both within Baron’s Quay and the rest of
the town centre can be addressed. The removal of this derelict and unattractive site will help reduce
the perception of crime in this part of the town centre, by first providing physical regeneration and
secondly by introducing active retail and leisure land uses that will provide natural surveillance
throughout the day and well into the evening.
State of the Town Centre Environment
7.50
The environmental quality of the town centre has already been discussed in the context of the
physical regeneration needs of Northwich, particularly with reference to the mixed and varied
townscape (albeit including some architecturally/historically important buildings); underused and
vacant premises; somewhat dated developments such as Weaver Square which all detract from the
overall quality of the built environment.
7.51
The town centre environment around the proposal site is varied, given its current car park use it offers
little environment quality and accommodates a number of derelict and dilapidated buildings which
have limited architectural quality and their removal can only improve the quality of this area. The site
backs on to the service areas of most of the properties within the primary retail area, and any
redevelopment at Baron’s Quay will need to consider carefully the treatment of these areas through
the introduction of new commercial floorspace.
79
7.52
Notwithstanding the above, WYG believe that any redevelopment of this site will significantly enhance
the town centre environment. However, the overall quality of the design in terms of its place making
and the quality of building finishes and character will be something that the Council have to carefully
manage to ensure that the positive impacts are maximised. There is a danger in these difficult times
when yields have ‘softened’, that schemes are ‘value engineer’ to enhance viability. A careful balance
will need to be struck to ensure that the development can be implemented and is viable but at the
same time a sufficient level of design quality is achieved. The Council must recognise that
developments on this scale only occur once in a generation. Therefore it is important that the legacy
left by such a significant scheme can have a positive impact for generation to come.
Overview
7.53
The above analysis demonstrates that Northwich town centre is underperforming in some key areas
and is in clear need of improvement in order to enhance its vitality and viability to ensure that it is
properly functioning as a town centre in line with its potential in the retail hierarchy. In particular, it is
characterised by:
•
Strong convenience offer with strong anchor foodstores (Sainsbury’s, Aldi, Lidl, Co-op);
•
Comparison goods retailers is proportionally comparable to the national average but has declined
in both the number of units and floorspace since 2001;
•
An under provision of service activities but has grown since 2001;
•
A limited range of national retailers especially fashion retailers;
•
Vacancy levels which are above the national average and which are increasing, including within
the retail core, but are heavily influenced by two long term and large vacancies in secondary
location;
•
There is a high propensity of small sized units which are less attractive to multiple operators which
discourages their representation in Northwich town centre;
•
A varied built environment with some unattractive fascias in parts but very attractive period
buildings located throughout the town centre;
7.54
•
Strong and diverse independent retail sector coupled with a limited multiple representation;
•
Some perception of crime along the main retail areas.
WYG believe that the introduction of modern retail floorspace well positioned to the existing retail
activity will strengthen the role and function of the centre as a retail destination by increasing
80
significantly the proportion of larger scale units than are currently available and thus encouraging new
retail brands/operators to the town.
Impact on Allocated Sites
7.55
A further consideration of Policy EC16 is the impact that a proposal may have on allocated sites
outside town centres being developed in accordance with the development plan. Accordingly, the
objectives of the development plan will principally be met by delivering a scheme at Baron’s Quay.
Therefore, the impact will be positive in terms of facilitating the implementation of the development
plan strategy.
7.56
As we explored earlier in this section, we found that there was a high incidence of vacancies within
Weaver Square shopping area. The level of vacancies is in part due to the constrained nature of the
available units which are not attractive to end operators. The centre has recently experienced the loss
of Quality Save, La Senza, and Argos which has impacted on footfall. It is unclear at this stage
whether this is part of a wider strategy by the owner of the shopping to manage the decline of the
centre for future redevelopment or whether it as a result of more structural or financial constraints.
7.57
The site is allocated (Policy GS9B) for redevelopment but only after the Baron’s Quay has been
secured. Without the investment at Baron’s Quay it is difficult to envisage any redevelopment of
Weaver Square. Apart from the existing vacant units there is little incentive at present for the owner
of Weaver Square to invest significant amounts of money to redevelop this area. As highlighted in the
cases of Birmingham and Liverpool, it is more likely that this investment will be triggered following the
opening of Baron’s Quay when the centre will need to improve its offer to compete and to take
advantage of the increased footfall within Northwich generally. Therefore, WYG would contend that
the development of baron’s Quay will be central to realising the redevelopment of Weaver Square.
Therefore, the development can only have a positive impact on this allocation.
7.58
The third site allocated in the development plan relates to the land north of Leicester Street allocated
under GS9C. Similar to the Weaver Square site, the site is phased to be released after Baron’s Quay.
The site is also allocated for bulky goods retailing. Therefore, WYG do not believe that the delivery of
this site will be prejudiced in by the Baron’s Quay development.
81
7.59
The fourth site relates to Northwich market, which is proposed to be re-configured and remodelled
through Policy GS9D to provide a new covered public square. Similar to the conclusion reached
above, this is unlikely to happen without the investment secured a Baron’s Quay. Therefore any
impact would again be positive.
7.60
The firth allocated site relates to the marina development area (MDA) as designated by GS9E, which
sits to the south of the town centre. WYG note that although the site is sequentially inferior to the
Baron’s Quay site, we do not believe that it will be prejudiced by Baron’s Quay. Allocation GS9E will
be centred on a waterfront working marina and therefore has the opportunity to create its own
destination which would function separately to the town centre. Allocation GS9E will be centred on a
waterfront working marina.
7.61
The sixth site relates to Policy GS9F which allocates the County Council office site on Watling Street
for retail, food and drink and residential uses. The site could not accommodate the level of
development proposed at Baron’s Quay. However, notwithstanding this, the site could be considered
part of a wider comprehensive redevelopment including Weaver Square and the existing market site.
We believe that subject to the success of Baron’s Quay, this will site would become more viable and
could be promoted in the medium to long term.
7.62
Clearly, the implementation of Baron’s Quay will not prejudice the ability of other allocations in the
development from being brought forward in the longer term. In fact, there is a strong argument to
suggest that without the step change delivered by Baron’s Quay many of the other allocations are
unlikely to be considered for redevelopment. This underlines the importance of Baron’s Quay as a
catalyst for securing additional investment within Northwich.
Impact on In-Centre Trade/Turnover
7.63
The fourth criterion relates to the impact of the proposal on in-centre trade/turnover and on trade in
the wider area, taking account of current and future consumer expenditure capacity in the catchment
area. In consideration of this issue detailed quantitative analysis has been undertaken. The retail
tables referred to are contained in Appendices 5 and 6.
82
Turnover of Proposed Development
7.64
In considering impact on in-centre trade/turnover and on trade in the wider area it is important to
estimate the expected turnover of the proposed development. As set out in section 5, we have
provided an estimate of the potential turnover of the proposed Baron’s Quay redevelopment. This
was based on four possible scenarios which relate to one of the main supermarket operators being
secured for the anchor foodstore unit.
7.65
As demonstrated in section 5, there is a clear quantitative and qualitative need for the proposed
convenience and comparison goods elements of the proposed re-development. However, WYG has
sought to examine the potential impact of introducing a significant level of new retailing floorspace in
Northwich both on the existing primary retail area as well as surrounding town centres and other retail
destinations.
7.66
As set out in section 5, WYG has estimated that the turnover of the proposed development based on a
number of potential scenarios which is dependent upon which end operator is secured. The potential
convenience retailing will trade at between £42.1m and £47.1m at 2015 rising to £42.6m to £47.6m
by 2021.
7.67
Similarly, WYG has estimated that the turnover of the comparison goods element of Baron’s Quay.
The comparison goods turnover is be based on two components the comparison goods retailing within
the proposed supermarket as well as the main comparison goods retailing from Phases 1 and 2.
7.68
WYG estimate that the proposed comparison goods turnover from the supermarket will be between
£30.4m to £36.2m at 2015 increasing to between £33.2m to £39.6m by 2021.
7.69
In terms of Phase 1 which will deliver the main comparison goods retailing, WYG estimate that this
will have a turnover of £14.6m at 2015 rising to £44.9 at 2016 and then £48.4m at 2021. Phase 2 is
estimated to have a turnover of £26.6m at 2016 rising to £28.6m at 2021. In total and for the
purposes of impact, WYG estimate that the combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 turnover at 2016 will be
£71.4m at 2016 increasing to £77.0m at 2021.
83
7.70
When considering both the supermarket and the main focus of comparison goods retailing and the
overall phasing, WYG estimate that the cumulative turnover will be between £45.0m and £50.8m at
2015, rising to between £102.3m and £108.2m at 2016 and between £110.2m and £116.6m at 2021.
Trading Assessment
7.71
This section of the quantitative analysis considers the potential impact that the proposed supermarket
(as well as the proposed comparison goods component of the scheme) will have on the pattern of
retail expenditure in the surrounding area. The analysis draws on the findings of the household
shopper survey.
7.72
In accordance with PPS4, the potential impact of the proposal is tested at 2021; this being five years
after the implementation of the whole proposal (Phase 1 and 2). For robustness, the impact of the
proposal at 2015 and 2016 is also tested given the proposed phasing of the scheme development
between 2015 and 2016, which also represents a five year period from when the application is
submitted (late 2011) but also the first year of trading for the supermarket and then the rest of the
wider scheme.
7.73
Set out at in Table 1 of Appendix 5 is an assessment of how the introduction of the proposal will affect
the projected retail turnovers of the defined shopping centres and retail facilities within the Study
Area.
7.74
The methodology that has been adopted involves the following steps:
•
Establish the existing (2011, base year) expenditure pattern within the Study Area, thereby
identifying the levels of convenience and comparison turnover that each identified centre/facility
derives from expenditure generated by households in the catchment area;
•
Projecting the pattern of convenience and comparison expenditure forward to 2016 and 2021 (the
design year for testing impact) assuming that each location maintains its current market share of
expenditure (the year 2015 is also tested);
•
Adopting Zones 2 and 6 from the Study Area as the primary catchment area for Northwich;
•
Assessing the pattern of trade draw to the proposed development utilising the survey evidence in
order to understand current shopping patterns within the Zones 2 and 6;
•
Calculating the quantitative impact of the proposal in terms of:
84
•
The percentage reduction in each store/centre at 2016 and 2021; and
•
The percentage change in retail turnover in each store/centre between 2016 and
2021 (and between 2010 and 2015).
Each is considered in turn below.
7.75
Drawing on the Cheshire Retail Update 2011 the sphere of influence of facilities in Northwich falls
within Zones 2 and 6 of the study. The extent of these two zones in the context of the spatial
distribution of town centres in the local area is shown in Figure 7.2 below.
85
Figure 7.2: Northwich Primary Catchment Area – Taken from Cheshire Retail Update (2011)
86
Convenience Expenditure Patterns at 2011
7.76
The current patterns of convenience goods expenditure is set out at Tables 3, 4 and 5 at Appendix 3
at 2011. These patterns have been used to calculate the turnover of existing facilities and to
understand the likely impact (trade draw) using the following method::
•
The convenience goods turnovers of supermarket/foodstores/centres are based on the results of
the household shopper survey. It is important to note that the turnover identified does not
necessary represent the total turnover of the identified stores/centres as some will draw a
proportion of trade from beyond the defined Study Area.
•
The turnovers shown are those derived from the Study Area only;
•
WYG has considered those stores where the majority of their turnover is drawn from Zones 2 and
6.
•
WYG has considered the impact on superstores/foodstores within approximately 0 to 20km radius
of Northwich, but also considered Altrincham which influences the north of Zone 2 and Frodsham
which influences the north of Zone 6.
•
WYG has considered the level of expenditure spent at existing supermarkets/foodstores within the
local area generally by distance and brand.
Convenience Expenditure Patterns at 2015, 2016 and 2021
7.77
For the purposes of this assessment it has been assumed that the existing retailers will gain, pro rota,
from the increase in expenditure available (through population and expenditure growth) to facilities in
the study area through to 2021.
Assessed Level of Trade Diversion
7.78
PPS4 only requires the economic impact to be considered on established centres. The impact has been
assessed with regard to the size, character and the location and proximity of competing convenience
goods shopping facilities. In addition, consideration has also been given to the existing shopping
patterns within Zones 2 and 6 which cover Northwich. In this respect, the market share analysis from
87
the household survey has allowed us to understand shopping patterns in the area and helped inform
the assessment of trade draw of the proposed development. Table 7.6 below shows the closest (in
distance) convenience goods facilities in and around the immediate area of Northwich, where local
expenditure is spent.
Table 7.6: Competing Convenience Goods Facilities
Store
Distance (km)
Northwich
Northwich Town Centre (PRA)
0.0
Aldi, Northwich
0.5
Lidl, Northwich
0.5
Sainsbury’s, Northwich
0.5
Somerfield, Northwich
0.5
Tesco, Northwich
1.0
Outside Northwich
Booths, Knutsford
7.79
12
Tesco, Middlewich
11
Morrisons, Frodsham
17
Tesco, Helsby
22
Aldi, Winsford
10
Morrisons, Winsford
10
Asda, Winsford
10
Sainsbury’s, Altrincham
21
Tesco, Altrincham
21
It is important to re-emphasise that depending on which end operator is secured for the foodstore,
the proposed development will result in re-balancing the current over-trading of existing provision in
Northwich as well as clawing back some expenditure lost to competing sites elsewhere. In this
respect, 89% of Northwich’s expenditure was drawn from Zones 2 and 6 with facilities in Northwich
retained 34.7% of the total available expenditure from these two zones.
7.80
We have considered the impact of each for the four potential supermarkets occupying the proposed
superstore. WYG estimate that 90% of the stores convenience goods expenditure will be drawn from
the local area with just 10% inflow being drawn from outside Zones 2 and 6, which is comparable to
current shopping patterns (89%).
88
7.81
We first consider Asda occupying the proposed store. WYG estimate that Asda will have a convenience
goods turnover of £45.6m at 2015, £45.7m at 2016 and £46.2m at 2021. We estimate that after
taking into account the 10% inflow, the trade diversion will be derived from a number of stores, most
notably the existing Sainsbury’s store on Venables Road (35%), and the Tesco store at Manchester
Road (35%). A further 4% will be drawn from a number of freestanding stores on the edge of the
town centre (Lidl, Aldi, Somerfield) and 3% from the town centre. WYG has also estimated that 13%
of the trade will be drawn from facilities in surrounding settlements including Knutsford, Middlewich,
Frodsham, Winsford and Altrincham. Given that Asda is currently trading in Winsford just 10 km from
Northwich, we estimate that 5% of the proposed store will be diverted from the Winsford store
Table 7.7: Scenario 1: Impact of Asda
Trade
Store
Trade Diversion / Impact
Diversion
(%)
Booths, Knutsford
2015
1
Tesco, Middlewich
2
Morrisons, Frodsham
1
Tesco, Helsby
1
Asda, Winsford
5
Morrison’s, Winsford
1
1
Tesco, Altrincham
1
2016
2021
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.2
5.7
4.8
4.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.2
5.6
4.8
4.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.1
5.5
4.6
4.3
0.0
2.3
0.5
0.5
0.0
4.4
0.8
1.3
0.0
2.3
0.5
0.5
0.0
4.3
0.8
1.3
0.0
2.3
0.5
0.5
0.0
4.2
0.8
1.2
1.4
0.9
0.5
16.0
0.5
16.0
19.8
11.3
16.0
24.1
9.9
28.0
1.4
0.9
0.5
16.0
0.5
16.0
19.6
11.1
15.9
23.9
9.8
27.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
16.2
0.5
16.2
18.8
10.7
15.2
22.9
9.4
26.6
Northwich
3
Aldi, Northwich
2
Lidl, Northwich
1
35
1
Tesco, Northwich
35
Total
90%
41.1
41.2
41.6
Source : Tables 1 to 3, Appendix 5
Northwich Town Centre includes Iceland and Marks & Spencer (Foodhall) and local shops.
7.82
The introduction of Asda to Northwich is likely to draw expenditure directly from the existing
Sainsbury’s and Tesco stores, this will have an impact of between 23% and 27% respectively, based
on their current derived turnover. This will percentage draw have no impact on their future viability as
this level of diversion will still allow either store to trade above their respective benchmark turnovers.
89
7.83
Furthermore any impact at either store is not considered to be against planning policy as both stores
are located outside the primary retail area and therefore not protected under EC16 of PPS4. There
will be no potential loss of linked trips from edge of centre stores such as Sainsbury’s as the trade will
be diverted to a location that is just as accessible to the rest of the town centre. In terms of
convenience goods retailing in the primary retail area, WYG estimate that the impact could be
between 20% and 19% between 2015 and 2021, although this may appear high we do not believe
that this will adversely affect the trading performance of the town centre overall as it the expenditure
will still be maintained in the existing town centre albeit at a new facility.
7.84
WYG has assumed that 5% of a potential Asda store would be drawn from the existing Asda store in
Winsford. WYG do not believe that this will have an adverse impact on this store, which is currently
significantly over trading. The impact will be approximately 4% between 2015 and 2021.
7.85
WYG conclude that the impact of a new Asda store at Baron’s Quay will have nominal impact on
Northwich’s primary retail area and other stores in the immediate area and any impact is likely to be
centred on the over trading of stores located in edge and out-of-centre locations.
7.86
We have then considered Morrisons occupying the proposed store and being introduced to Northwich.
As with the Asda scenario, we believe that similar shopping patterns will occur after the introduction of
Morrisons. The only difference is the trade diversion from the existing Morrisons in Winsford.
7.87
Overall, WYG estimates that 70% of the trade will be equally diverted (35%) from the existing
Sainsbury’s and Tesco stores, with a further 5% from the Morrison’s at Winsford. However, given
Morrison’s higher sales density (when compared to Asda), the impact on Tesco is estimated to be
29% at 2015 decreasing to 27% by 2021, with the impact on Sainsbury’s estimated to be 25% at
2015 decreasing to 24% by 2021. Although the impact is marginally higher than for the Asda store,
WYG believe that given the significant over trading of both stores the impact would not affect the
viability of either store. For example, we estimate that the 35% diversion from Sainsbury’s turnover
(from the household survey results) would mean that this would decrease from £70.6m to £53.9m.
This is still more than double its benchmark turnover (after including pro rota growth).
90
Table 7.8: Scenario 2: Impact of Morrison’s
Trade
Diversion
(%)
2015
2016
2021
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
1
2
1
1
1
5
1
1
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.4
0.5
0.5
2.3
5.9
4.9
4.6
0.9
4.1
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.4
0.5
0.5
2.2
5.8
4.9
4.5
0.9
4.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.4
0.5
0.5
2.1
5.7
4.7
4.4
0.9
3.9
1.3
1.3
3
1.4
20.4
1.4
20.2
1.4
19.4
Tesco, Northwich
2
1
35
1
35
0.9
0.5
16.5
0.5
16.5
11.6
16.5
24.9
10.2
28.9
0.9
0.5
16.5
0.5
16.5
11.5
16.3
24.6
10.1
28.6
1.0
0.5
16.7
0.5
16.7
11.0
15.7
23.6
9.7
27.4
Total
90%
E.H Booth, Knutsford
Tesco, Middlewich
Morrison’s, Frodsham
Tesco, Helsby
Asda, , Winsford
Tesco, Altrincham
Northwich
Aldi, Northwich
Lidl, Northwich
42.4
42.4
42.9
Northwich Town Centre includes Iceland and Marks & Spencer (Foodhall)
7.88
In addition, the impact on the primary retail area is likely to be between 19% and 20% between 2015
and 2021. Although this impact is considered high, we believe that on balance and given that a new
store is actually encouraging more expenditure to be spent at a site that is better integrated into the
town centre then it is more susceptible to encourage improved linked trips and bring wider benefits to
the rest of the town centre. WYG also consider that the introduction of Morrisons will provide a
qualitative improvement to the town centre which would outweigh the potential impact.
7.89
The third scenario examines the potential impact of a new Sainsbury’s store at Baron’s Quay. As with
the approach on capacity in section 5, WYG has assessed two potential impact scenarios. The first
(Scenario 3a) relates to Sainsbury’s securing the new store in Baron’s Quay but keeping their existing
store (a scenario which we think is highly unlikely) and the second (Scenario 3b) considers the impact
if Sainsbury relocate to Baron’s Quay and cease trading at Venables Road.
7.90
In Scenario 3a below, WYG considers that if Sainsbury’s were to operate from the new store but retain
their existing store, then it likely that at least 50% of the store’s draw would be drawn directly from
91
the existing store, this would have an impact of 32% at 2015 decreasing to 30% by 2021. WYG
estimate that 20% of the trade would be drawn from the existing Tesco store at Manchester Road,
which would have an impact of 15% at 2015 decreasing to 14% at 2021. As with the Asda and
Morrison’s assessment’s we do not believe that this would have an adverse impact on either store due
to the current levels of over trading. WYG also estimate that the impact on the primary retail area
would be 18% at 2015 decreasing to 17% by 2021. The impact on Aldi and Lidl stores are considered
to be between 10% and 28% respectively at 2021, we note that both stores are not protected in
planning policy terms.
Table 7.9: Scenario 3a: Impact of Sainsbury’s
Trade
Diversion
(%)
2015
2016
2021
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
Booths, Knutsford
1
0.4
2.0
0.4
2.0
0.4
1.9
Tesco, Middlewich
2
0.8
5.3
0.8
5.2
0.9
5.1
Morrisons, Frodsham
1
0.4
4.4
0.4
4.4
0.4
4.2
Tesco, Helsby
1
0.4
4.1
0.4
4.1
0.4
3.9
Aldi, Winsford
1
0.4
15.2
0.4
15.1
0.4
14.5
Asda, Winsford
2
0.8
1.6
0.8
1.6
0.9
1.5
2
0.8
1.5
0.8
1.4
0.9
1.4
1
0.4
1.2
0.4
1.2
0.4
1.1
Tesco, Altrincham
1
0.4
1.2
0.4
1.2
0.4
1.2
3
1.3
18.6
1.3
18.1
1.3
17.4
Aldi, Northwich
2
1.3
18.2
1.3
18.0
1.3
17.3
Lidl, Northwich
2
0.8
10.4
0.8
10.3
0.9
9.8
50
0.8
29.5
0.8
29.2
0.9
28.0
Northwich
1
21.0
31.8
21.1
31.4
21.3
30.1
Tesco, Northwich
20
0.4
9.1
0.4
9.0
0.4
8.6
Total
90%
37.8
37.9
38.3
7.91
As stated above, it is unlikely given the proximity of the existing Sainsbury’s store that the operator
would want to trade both stores; therefore, WYG has considered the scenario that Sainsbury relocate
to Baron’s Quay. As set out in section 3, WYG estimated that the current stores benchmark turnover is
£23.0m at 2011, and is estimated to increase to £23. 2m by 2015. When we compare this to the
estimated benchmark turnover (£42.1m) of the proposed Sainsbury’s at 2015, the uplift in benchmark
92
turnover will be £18.9m. However, the existing store (based on current market share) is over trading
by some £43.0m (2015), which is more than double the uplift in benchmark turnover. WYG estimate
that it is likely that the extra £18.9m will be simply transferred to the improved store and is unlikely to
impact on existing retailers in the town as the trade is already spent at the existing Sainsbury’s. If this
occurs then the over trading will be reduced from the current 285% to just 104% or a 64% reduction.
7.92
The last impact scenario examines the potential impact of a new Tesco store at Baron’s Quay. Similar
to the Sainsbury’s approach, WYG has assessed two potential impact scenarios. The first (Scenario
4a) relates to Tesco securing the new store in Baron’s Quay (whilst retaining their existing store) and
the second (Scenario 3b) considers the potential impact if Tesco relocates to Baron’s Quay and ceases
trading at their Manchester Road store.
Table 7.10: Scenario 4a: Impact of Tesco
Trade
Diversion
2015
(%)
Booths, Knutsford
Tesco, Middlewich
Morrisons, Frodsham
Tesco, Helsby
Aldi, Winsford
Asda, Winsford
Morrisons, Winsford
Tesco, Altrincham
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
Northwich
Tesco, Northwich
3
2
2
20
1
50
Total
90%
Aldi, Northwich
Lidl, Northwich
2016
2021
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.3
5.9
4.9
4.5
16.9
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.2
5.8
4.9
4.5
16.8
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.3
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
2.1
5.1
4.7
4.4
16.1
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
1.4
0.9
0.9
9.3
0.5
23.4
20.2
11.5
32.8
14.1
10.2
41.0
1.4
0.9
0.9
9.4
0.5
23.4
20.0
11.4
32.5
14.0
10.0
40.5
1.4
0.9
0.9
9.5
0.5
23.7
19.2
10.9
31.1
13.4
9.6
38.9
37.8
37.9
42.5
7.93
In Scenario 4a above, we have assumed that if Tesco were to relocate but retain their existing
operation (a more likely scenario given Tesco’s current out of centre location), then at least 50% of
93
the store’s draw would be drawn directly from the existing store. This would have an impact of
41.0% at 2015 decreasing to 38.9% by 2021. WYG estimate that 20% of the trade would be drawn
from the existing Sainsbury’s store at Venables Road, which would have an impact of 14.1% at 2015
decreasing to 14.0% at 2016 and decrease to 13.4% at 2021. As with the Asda and Morrisons
assessment’s we do not believe that this would have an adverse impact on either store due to their
significantly overtrading, and both stores would still be able to trade well above their respective
benchmark turnover. WYG also estimate that the impact on the primary retail area would be 18.2% at
2015 increasing to 19.2% by 2021. The impact on Aldi and Lidl stores are considered to be between
10% and 31% respectively at 2021, we note that both stores are not protected in planning policy
terms and therefore any impact may be considered acceptable as more trade will be focused at a
more central locality.
7.94
Lastly WYG has considered the scenario that Tesco relocate to Baron’s Quay. As set out in section 3,
WYG estimated that the current stores benchmark turnover is £20.5m at 2011, and is estimated to
increase to £20.6m by 2015. When we compare this to the estimated benchmark turnover (£46.8m)
of the proposed Tesco at 2015, the uplift in benchmark turnover will be £26.2m. However, the existing
store (based on current market share) is over trading by some £57.0m (2015), which is more than
double the uplift in benchmark turnover. WYG estimate that it is likely that the extra £26.2m will be
simply transferred to the improved store and is unlikely to impact on existing retailers in the town as
the trade is already spent at the existing Tesco. If this occurs then the over trading will be reduced
from the current 276% to just 50%.
Comparison Expenditure Patterns at 2011
7.95
The current patterns of comparison goods expenditure is set out at Tables 6 to 24 at Appendix 3 at
2011. This turnover has been calculated as follows:
•
The comparison goods turnovers of town centres are based on the results of the household
shopper survey. It is important to note that the identified turnover does not necessary represent
the total turnover of the identified stores/centres since some will draw trade from beyond the
defined catchment area.
•
WYG has only considered town centres which currently draw comparison goods expenditure from
Zones 2 and 6.
94
•
WYG has considered the impact on town centres within approximately 0 to 40km radius of
Northwich, but also considered Altrincham which influences the north of Zone 2 and Frodsham
which influences the north of Zone 6.
•
WYG has considered the level of local expenditure spent at existing town centres outside and
within Zones 2 and 6.
Comparison Expenditure Patterns at 2015, 2016 and 2021
7.96
For the purposes of this assessment it has been assumed that the existing retailers will gain, pro rota,
from the increase in comparison expenditure (as a result of population and expenditure growth)
available to facilities in the study area and beyond.
Assessed Level of Trade Diversion
7.97
The impact has been assessed with regard to the size, character and the location and proximity of
competing comparison goods shopping facilities. In addition, consideration has also been given to the
existing shopping patterns within Zones 2 and 6 which cover the primary catchment for Northwich. In
this respect, the market share analysis from the household survey has allowed us to understand
shopping patterns in the area and helped inform the assessment of trade draw of the proposed
development. Table 7.11 below shows the main town centres/retail parks where comparison goods
expenditure is spent from Zones 2 and 6 at 2015, 2016 and 2021, if the current market share is
retained.
7.98
Table 7.11 shows that the main outflow of comparison goods expenditure is to Altrincham (and
Retail Park) also located in Zone 2 (northern area), Winsford also located in Zone 6, Crewe
approximately 24km to the south of Northwich, Warrington 20km to the north of Northwich, Handforth
Dean, Cheshire Oaks, Chester city centre and Greyhound Retail Park all over 20km from Northwich. In
2015, £245.6m of comparison goods expenditure was spent at facilities outside Zones 2 and 6, if no
development Baron’s Quay is facilitated this will increase to £258.0m by 2016 and £322.0 by 2021.
95
Table 7.11: Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage (£m)
Destination
2015
Zone 2
2016
Zone 2
Altrincham Retail Park
39.0
101.9
Knutsford Town Centre
18.8
Zone 6
Frodsham Town Centre
0.3
Winsford Town Centre
6.3
Nat Lane Retail Park,
Winsford
0.3
Wharton Retail Park,
Winsford
1.6
Outside Zones 2 and 6 (10-20km)
Crewe Town Centre
3.4
Holmes Chapel Village
Centre
1.6
Middlewich Town Centre
0.5
Runcorn Town Centre
0.0
24.7
Widnes Town Centre
0.2
Outside Zones 2 and 6
(+20km)
Macclesfield Town Centre
3.4
Nantwich Town Centre
1.6
Handforth Dean
0.5
Wilmslow Town Centre
0.0
Ellesmere Port Town
Centre
24.7
Cheshire Oaks Designer
Outlet
0.2
The Coliseum, Cheshire
Oaks
0.0
Chester City Centre
10.3
Greyhound Retail Park,
Chester
1.3
Total Outflow
240.7
2021
2015
Zone 6
2016
2021
2015
Total
2016
2021
41.2
107.6
19.8
51.5
134.6
24.8
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.8
39.2
102.0
19.4
41.4
107.8
20.5
51.8
134.8
25.6
0.3
6.7
0.4
8.4
8.7
69.1
9.1
72.4
11.4
90.4
9.0
75.5
9.4
79.2
11.8
98.7
0.3
0.4
2.8
2.9
3.7
3.1
3.2
4.0
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.6
3.6
3.8
4.8
3.6
4.5
14.6
15.3
19.0
17.9
18.8
23.5
1.7
0.5
0.0
26.1
0.2
2.1
0.7
0.0
32.7
0.3
0.6
1.0
2.1
28.3
1.1
0.6
1.0
2.2
29.6
1.1
0.8
1.2
2.7
36.9
1.4
2.2
1.5
2.1
53.0
1.3
2.3
1.5
2.2
55.7
1.4
2.9
1.9
2.7
69.6
1.7
3.6
1.7
0.5
0.0
4.5
2.1
0.7
0.0
14.6
0.6
1.0
2.1
15.3
0.6
1.0
2.2
19.0
0.8
1.2
2.7
17.9
2.2
1.5
2.1
18.8
2.3
1.5
2.2
23.5
2.9
1.9
2.7
26.1
32.7
28.3
29.6
36.9
53.0
55.7
69.6
0.2
0.3
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.7
0.0
10.9
0.0
13.6
1.2
66.9
1.2
70.1
1.5
87.4
1.2
77.2
1.2
81.0
1.5
101.0
1.3
254.2
1.7
318.0
10.0
256.8
10.5
269.1
13.1
335.6
11.3
245.6
11.9
258.0
14.8
322.0
Source: Tables 1, 2 and 3, Appendix 6.
7.99
It is important to re-emphasise that if Baron’s Quay can secure high quality multiple retailers, the
proposed development will help re-balance shopping patterns in the local area and will reduce the
need for residents to travel further afield to other centres where such facilities are readily available.
This will result in claw back of expenditure currently being spent in competing centres elsewhere. In
this respect, 85% of Northwich town centre’s current turnover is drawn from Zones 2 and 6. We have
therefore assumed that this will remain constant over the test period, whereby Baron’s Quay will draw
96
the vast majority of its trade from the local area, with 15% drawn from outside causing a diversion
from mainly from high order centres such as Liverpool city centre, the Trafford Centre and Manchester
city centre.
7.100
Table 7.12 outlines WYG’s trade diversion assumptions. We estimate that 7% of Baron’s Quay’s
turnover will be derived from facilities in Zone 2, namely facilities in Altrincham and Knutsford. Given
that both centres are located in Zone 2 we don’t expect significant changes to shopping patterns in
this area. In Zone 6, WYG estimate that 10% of the Baron’s Quay turnover will be drawn from the
existing town centre, a further 10% from Northwich Retail Park, 5% from Winsford town centre and
then nominal levels from the two retail parks in Winsford and Frodsham town centre.
7.101
In terms of trade drawn from centres between 10km and 15 km away, we expect that the main trade
diversion will be from Crewe (5%) and Warrington (5%), which are Northwich’s primary competitors,
albeit the offer in Crewe is clearly not as strong as Warrington. We also estimate that there will be
nominal trade diversion from the smaller centres of Middlewich, Holmes Chapel, Runcorn and Widnes.
7.102
In terms of centres beyond 20km, WYG estimate that there will be trade diversion from Chester city
centre (15%), Macclesfield (5%), Handforth Dean (5%) and Cheshire Oaks (including the Coliseum)
(5%) given that they offer strong comparison goods destinations for residents of Zones 2 and 6. WYG
also estimate that there will be nominal level of trade diversion from smaller centres such as Nantwich
and Ellesmere Port.
97
Table 7.12: Trade Diversion Assumptions
Destination
Trade Diversion (%)
Zone 2
Altrincham Retail Park
Zone 6
Northwich Town Centre
Northwich Retail Park
Nat Lane Retail Park, Winsford
Wharton Retail Park, Winsford
1
4
2
10
10
1
5
0.5
0.5
Crewe Town Centre
Holmes Chapel Village Centre
Runcorn Town Centre
Widnes Town Centre
Outside Zones 2 and 6 (+20km)
Handforth Dean
Ellesmere Port Town Centre
Cheshire Oaks Designer Outlet
The Coliseum, Cheshire Oaks
Chester City Centre
Greyhound Retail Park, Chester
Total
7.103
5
1
1
0.5
5
0.5
5
2
5
1
2
5
1
15
2
85%
When considering impact on existing town centres, WYG has taken a similar approach to the
convenience goods impact assessment, where we have looked at four impact scenarios which are
each based on the estimated level of comparison good turnover derived from the scheme. The
turnover of the proposed development is dependent upon which superstore operator secures the large
superstore within Baron’s Quay.
7.104
We first consider the impact of Baron’s Quay comparison goods floorspace with Asda occupying the
proposed store. WYG estimate that Scenario 1 will have a comparison goods turnover of £47.8m at
98
2015, £104.9m at 2016 and £113.0m at 2021. Baron’s Quay with an Asda store has the highest
comparison goods turnover of all four scenarios. We estimate that after taking into account the 15%
inflow, the trade diversion will be derived from a number of destinations.
7.105
Based on our analysis, we estimate that the impact on Altrincham’s comparison goods retailing will be
1.8% at 2015 increasing to 3.6% at 2016 reducing to 3.1% by 2021. WYG do not believe that this
represents an adverse impact that would prejudice Altrincham’s vitality and viability. WYG also
estimate that the impact on Knutsford town centre will be 8.6% at 2016 based on a trade diversion of
2%. WYG contend that given Knutsford’s specialist retail offer and its strong service provision this
estimate impact is unlikely to have a significant impact on the future economic performance of the
town centre.
99
Table 7.13: Scenario 1: Comparison Goods Impact of Baron’s Quay and Asda
Store
Trade
Diversion
(%)
Zone 2
2015
£m
2016
%
£m
2021
%
£m
%
Altrincham Retail Park,
1
0.5
-1.2
1.0
-2.5
1.1
-2.1
4
1.9
-1.8
4.2
-3.6
4.5
-3.1
Zone 6
2
1.0
-4.1
2.1
-8.6
2.3
-7.4
10
4.8
-1.8
10.5
-3.8
11.3
-3.3
Northwich Retail Park, Northwich
10
4.8
-10.2
10.5
-21.3
11.3
-18.4
1
0.5
-4.7
1.0
-9.9
1.1
-8.6
5
2.4
-2.6
5.2
-5.5
5.7
-4.8
0.5
0.2
-7.4
0.5
-15.4
0.6
-13.3
0.5
0.2
-4.7
0.5
-9.8
0.6
-8.5
5
2.4
-0.7
5.2
-1.5
5.7
-1.3
Crewe Town Centre
1
0.5
-3.6
1.0
-7.4
1.1
-6.5
1
0.5
-3.5
1.0
-7.3
1.1
-6.4
Runcorn Town Centre
Widnes Town Centre
0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
5
2.4
-1.6
5.2
-3.3
5.7
-2.9
0.5
0.2
-0.9
0.5
-1.9
0.6
-1.7
5
2.4
-0.7
5.2
-1.5
5.7
-1.3
2
1.0
-1.6
2.1
-3.2
2.3
-2.8
Handforth Dean Shopping Centre
5
2.4
-2.2
5.2
-4.6
5.7
-4.0
1
0.5
-0.8
1.0
-1.7
1.1
-1.5
2
1.0
-0.7
2.1
-1.5
2.3
-1.3
Cheshire Oaks Designer Outlet,
5
2.4
-2.2
5.2
-4.6
5.7
-4.1
The Coliseum, Ellesmere Port
1
0.5
-4.4
1.0
-9.1
1.1
-8.1
Chester City Centre
15
7.2
-1.1
15.7
-2.2
17.0
-2.0
Total
2
85%
1.0
-0.4
40.6
2.1
-0.9
89.2
2.3
-0.8
96.1
Source: Table 1 to 3, Appendix 6
7.106
In terms of Zone 6, we estimate that the impact on comparison goods retailing in Northwich town
centre will be 3.8% at 2016 reducing to 3.3% at 2021. We do not believe that this level of impact
would adversely affect the future health of Northwich town centre. Even if the potential trade
diversion is ,ore significant than that estimated by WYG (say 20% of the turnover) then the impact at
2016 would still only be 7.6% and 6.5% at 2021, which would again not adversely impact the town
centre’s performance in the short to medium term.
100
7.107
WYG estimate that based on our trade diversion assumptions the impact on comparison goods
retailing in both Frodsham and Winsford will be negligible and will not adversely affect their future
economic performance. Estimated impacts on Northwich Retail Park, Nat Lane Retail Park and
Wharton Retail Park are estimated to be below 20% at 2021. Despite not being protected by planning
policy, we do not expect these to have a significant impact on their future performance.
7.108
In terms of the impact on centres located between 10 and 20km from Northwich, based on our trade
diversion assumptions, WYG estimate that the impacts are all well below 10%.
7.109
In terms of the impact on centres located beyond 20km from Northwich, we estimate that any impact
would be below 4% (with the exception of the Coliseum, which is not protected in planning policy
terms) at 2021. In terms of Chester, WYG has assumed that 15% of Baron’s Quay turnover will be
diverted from the city centre; we would have an impact of just 2% at 2021 which is considered
negligible.
7.110
The second scenario considers the impact of Baron’s Quay comparison goods floorspace with
Morrisons occupying the proposed store. WYG estimate that Scenario 2 will have a comparison goods
turnover of £45.0m at 2015, £102.3m at 2016 and £110.2m at 2021. After allowing for the 15%
inflow from beyond the Study Area, the trade diversion will be reduced to £86.9m at 2016 and £93.7m
at 2021. With the proposed comparison goods turnover being £2.8m lower than Scenario 1, Table
7.14 shows that the impact is likely to be further reduced. As with the conclusions on Scenario 1,
WYG estimates that the impact on established town centres is negligible.
101
Table 7.14: Scenario 2: Comparison Goods Impact of Baron’s Quay and Morrisons
Store
Trade
Diversion
(%)
2015
Zone 2
1
2016
2021
£m
%
£m
%
£m
%
0.5
-1.1
1.0
-2.4
1.1
-2.1
4
1.8
-1.7
4.1
-3.5
4.4
-3.1
2
0.9
-3.9
2.0
-8.4
2.2
-7.2
10
4.5
-1.7
10.2
-3.7
11.0
-3.2
10
4.5
-9.6
10.2
-20.7
11.0
-17.9
1
0.5
-4.5
1.0
-9.7
1.1
-8.4
5
2.3
-2.5
5.1
-5.4
5.5
-4.7
0.5
0.2
-7.0
0.5
-15.0
0.6
-13.0
0.5
0.2
-4.4
0.5
-5.9
0.6
-5.1
5
2.3
-0.7
5.1
-1.5
5.5
-1.3
Zone 6
Crewe Town Centre
1
0.5
-3.4
1.0
-7.2
1.1
-6.3
1
0.5
-3.3
1.0
-7.1
1.1
-6.2
Runcorn Town Centre
Widnes Town Centre
0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
5
2.3
-1.5
5.1
-3.2
5.5
-2.8
0.5
0.2
-0.9
0.5
-1.9
0.6
-1.6
5
2.3
-0.7
5.1
-1.5
5.5
-1.3
2
0.9
-1.5
2.0
-3.2
2.2
-2.7
5
2.3
-2.1
5.1
-4.5
5.5
-3.9
1
0.5
-0.8
1.0
-1.6
1.1
-1.4
2
0.9
-0.7
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-1.3
5
2.3
-2.1
5.1
-4.5
5.5
-4.0
1
0.5
-4.1
1.0
-8.9
1.1
-7.9
Chester City Centre
15
6.8
-1.0
15.3
-2.2
16.5
-1.9
Total
2
85%
0.9
-0.4
2.0
-0.9
2.2
38.4
86.9
-0.8
93.7
7.111
The third scenario considers the impact of Baron’s Quay comparison goods floorspace with Sainsbury’s
occupying the proposed store. WYG estimate that Scenario 3 will have a comparison goods turnover
of £47.7m at 2015, £105.1m at 2016 and £113.2m at 2021. After taking into account the 15% inflow
from beyond the Study Area, the trade diversion will be reduced to £89.3m at 2016 and £96.2m at
2021. With the proposed comparison goods turnover being comparable with Scenario 1, Table 7.15
demonstrates that the impact is likely to be consistent with the findings of Scenario 1.
102
7.112
As with the conclusions on Scenarios 1 and 2, it is estimated that the impact of established town
centres is negligible and is unlikely to have an adverse impact on surrounding centres. The highest
impacts (<10%) are estimated to be on Northwich Retail Park and Nat Lane Retail Park in Winsford
which are not afforded any protection in planning policy terms. Notwithstanding this we do not believe
these potential impacts with adversely affect the parks trading performance.
Table 7.15: Scenario 3: Comparison Goods Impact of Baron’s Quay and Sainsbury’s
Store
Trade
Diversion
(%)
2015
Zone 2
£m
2016
%
£m
2021
%
£m
%
1
0.5
-1.2
1.1
-2.5
1.1
-2.1
4
1.9
-1.8
4.2
-3.6
4.5
-3.1
2
1.0
-4.1
2.1
-8.6
2.3
-7.4
10
4.8
-1.8
10.5
-3.8
11.3
-3.3
10
4.8
-10.2
10.5
-21.3
11.3
-18.4
1
0.5
-4.8
1.1
-9.9
1.1
-8.6
Zone 6
5
2.4
-2.7
5.3
-5.5
5.7
-4.8
0.5
0.2
-7.4
0.5
-15.5
0.6
-13.4
0.5
0.2
-4.7
0.5
-9.8
0.6
-8.5
Crewe Town Centre
5
2.4
-0.7
5.3
-1.5
5.7
-1.3
1
0.5
-3.6
1.1
-7.4
1.1
-6.5
Runcorn Town Centre
Widnes Town Centre
1
0.5
-3.5
1.1
-7.3
1.1
-6.4
0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
5
2.4
-1.6
5.3
-3.3
5.7
-2.9
0.5
0.2
-0.9
0.5
-1.9
0.6
-1.7
5
2.4
-0.7
5.3
-1.5
5.7
-1.3
2
1.0
-1.6
2.1
-3.2
2.3
-2.8
5
2.4
-2.2
5.3
-4.6
5.7
-4.0
1
0.5
-0.8
1.1
-1.7
1.1
-1.5
2
1.0
-0.7
2.1
-1.5
2.3
-1.3
5
2.4
-2.2
5.3
-4.6
5.7
-4.1
1
0.5
-4.4
1.1
-9.2
1.1
-8.1
Chester City Centre
15
7.2
-1.1
15.8
-2.2
17.0
-2.0
Total
2
85%
1.0
-0.4
40.7
2.1
-0.9
89.3
2.3
-0.8
96.2
103
7.113
The last scenario considers the impact of Baron’s Quay comparison goods floorspace with Tesco’s
occupying the proposed superstore. WYG estimate that Scenario 4 will have a comparison goods
turnover of £50.8m at 2015, £108.2m at 2016 and £116.6m at 2021. After taking into account the
15% inflow from beyond the Study Area, the trade diversion will be reduced to £92.0m at 2016 and
£99.1m at 2021. As with our previous findings the impact is highest on the existing retail parks, and
the impact on established town centres are >10% at 2016 and decreasing to 2021.
Table 7.16: Scenario 4: Comparison Goods Impact of Baron’s Quay and Tesco
Store
Trade
Diversion
(%)
2015
Zone 2
£m
2016
%
£m
2021
%
£m
%
1
0.5
-1.3
1.1
-2.5
1.2
-2.2
4
2.0
-1.9
4.3
-3.8
4.7
-3.2
2
1.0
-4.4
2.2
-8.9
2.3
-7.6
Zone 6
10
5.1
-1.9
10.8
-3.9
11.7
-3.4
10
5.1
-10.9
10.8
-21.9
11.7
-18.9
1
0.5
-5.1
1.1
-10.2
1.2
-8.9
5
2.6
-2.8
5.4
-5.7
5.8
-4.9
1
0.3
-7.9
0.5
-15.9
0.6
-13.8
1
0.3
-5.0
0.5
-10.1
0.6
-8.7
5
2.6
-0.8
5.4
-1.6
5.8
-1.3
Crewe Town Centre
1
0.5
-3.8
1.1
-7.6
1.2
-6.7
1
0.5
-3.8
1.1
-7.5
1.2
-6.6
Runcorn Town Centre
1
0.3
-0.4
0.5
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
5
2.6
-1.7
5.4
-3.4
5.8
-3.0
Widnes Town Centre
1
0.3
-1.0
0.5
-2.0
0.6
-1.7
5
2.6
-0.8
5.4
-1.6
5.8
-1.4
2
1.0
-1.7
2.2
-3.3
2.3
-2.9
5
2.6
-2.4
5.4
-4.8
5.8
-4.1
1
0.5
-0.9
1.1
-1.7
1.2
-1.5
2
1.0
-0.7
2.2
-1.5
2.3
-1.3
5
2.6
-2.4
5.4
-4.8
5.8
-4.2
1
0.5
-4.7
1.1
-9.4
1.2
-8.4
Chester City Centre
15
7.7
-1.1
16.2
-2.3
17.5
-2.0
2
1.0
-0.5
2.2
-1.0
2.3
-0.8
Total
85%
29.2
82.4
88.7
104
7.114
From review of the four scenarios outlined above, WYG has demonstrated that the trading impacts
experienced by defined town centres will be limited and will not result in any detrimental or significant
adverse effects on established town centres.
7.115
In addition, to the impact analysis for convenience and comparison goods retailing, WYG has
considered the cumulative impact of the total expenditure as required by PPS4. In tables 1 and 2 of
Appendix 7 we set out the cumulative impact based the different scenario testing for both
convenience and comparison expenditure set out above. Table 7.17 below provides a summary of
the cumulative impact of destinations within Zones 2 and 6 and other destinations which compete with
Northwich. WYG has highlighted the destinations which will experience an impact of +15% which
may be consider high.
105
Table 7.17: Summary of Cumulative Impact
Zone 2
Tesco
Sainsbury’s
Asda
Tesco
2021
Sainsbury’s
Morrisons
Asda
Tesco
2016
Sainsbury’s
Morrisons
Asda
2015
Morrisons
Store
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-1.7
-2.8
-2.7
-2.7
-2.8
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-2.5
-2.4
2.5
-2.5
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.2
-3.9
-3.6
-3.9
-4.1
-8.0
-7.8
-8.0
-8.3
-7.0
-6.8
-7.0
-7.2
Eh Booth, Knutsford
-2.2
-2.3
-2.0
-2.3
-2.2
-2.2
-2.0
-2.2
-2.1
-2.1
-1.9
-2.1
-2.3
-2.2
-2.2
2.4
-4.2
-4.1
-4.1
-4.3
-3.6
-3.5
-3.6
-3.7
-10.2
-9.6
-10.2
-10.9
-21.3
-20.7
-21.3
-21.9
-18.4
-19.9
-18.4
-18.9
Aldi, Leicester St, Northwich
-11.3
-11.6
-10.4
-11.5
-11.1
-11.5
-10.3
-11.4
-10.7
-11.0
-9.8
-10.9
Lidl, Chester Way, Northwich
-16.0
-16.5
-29.5
-32.8
-15.9
-16.3
-29.2
-32.5
-15.2
-15.7
-28.0
-31.1
Sainsbury’s, Venables Rd, Northwich
-24.1
-24.9
-31.8
-14.1
-23.9
-24.6
-31.4
-14.0
-22.9
-23.6
-30.1
-13.4
Somerfield, Chester Way, Northwich
-9.9
-10.2
9.1
-10.2
-9.8
-10.1
-9.0
-10.0
-9.4
-9.7
-8.6
-9.6
Tesco, Manchester Rd, Northwich
-27.6
-28.5
-14.5
-40.4
-27.3
-28.1
-14.4
-39.9
-26.1
-26.9
-13.7
-38.2
-4.3
-4.3
-4.2
-4.5
-6.8
-6.7
-6.6
-7.0
-6.3
-6.2
-6.1
-6.5
Tesco, Helsby, Frodsham
-4.2
-4.4
-3.9
-4.3
-4.2
-4.3
-3.9
-4.3
-4.0
-4.2
-3.7
-4.1
-3.1
-1.8
-2.5
-2.7
-4.9
-3.6
-4.2
-4.6
-4.4
-3.3
-3.9
-4.0
Morrisons, Nat Lane Retail Park
-0.8
-4.0
-1.4
-1.6
-0.8
-4.0
-1.4
-1.6
-0.7
-3.8
-1.4
-1.5
-7.4
-7.0
-7.4
-7.9
-15.4
-15.0
-15.5
-15.9
-13.3
-13.0
-13.4
-13.8
-4.7
-4.4
-4.7
-5.0
-9.8
-9.5
-9.8
-10.1
-8.5
-8.3
-8.5
-8.7
Crewe Town Centre
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.2
-2.2
-2.0
-2.2
-2.3
-4.6
-4.5
-4.6
-4.7
-4.3
-4.1
-4.3
-4.4
Zone 6
Outside Zones 2 & 6 (10-20km)
-4.4
-4.4
-4.2
-4.6
-6.1
-6.1
-5.9
-6.2
-5.7
-5.7
-5.5
-5.5
Runcorn Town Centre
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
-3.3
-3.2
-3.3
-3.4
-2.9
-2.8
-2.9
-3.0
Widnes Town Centre
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.9
-1.9
-1.9
-2.0
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-2.3
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-2.0
-3.8
-3.7
-3.8
-4.0
-3.4
-3.3
-3.4
-3.5
Outside Zones 2 & 6 (20km+)
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.8
-3.5
-3.4
-3.5
-3.6
-3.2
-3.1
-3.2
-3.3
Chester City Centre
-4.4
-4.1
-4.4
-4.7
-9.1
-8.9
-9.2
-9.4
-8.1
-7.9
-8.1
-8.4
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-2.1
-2.0
-2.1
-2.2
-1.9
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
Source: Tables 1 and 2, Appendix 7
106
7.116
The results clearly re-affirm that there is likely to be no adverse impact on established surrounding
town centres as the majority of expenditure is drawn from established out-of-centre retail
developments, which are not protected by planning policy. WYG believe that this will help re-balance
current trading patterns towards a more ’town centre focused’ position rather than the current
position which encourages main shopping trips to out of centre freestanding destinations. This
approach will act as the catalyst to further improve economic conditions in the town centre, which will
bring people and shoppers back to the town centre which is a key part of the Government’s planning
policy objectives.
The Appropriateness of Scale
7.117
For proposals located in or on the edge of a town centre, the fifth requirement of Policy EC16 is to
demonstrate that the proposal is of an appropriate scale (in terms of gross floorspace) in relation to
the size of the centre and its role in the hierarchy of centres.
7.118
It has been well documented that there are significant levels of outflow of comparison goods
expenditure to competing centres elsewhere. More recently we have found that there is significant
over trading of both edge-of-centre and out-of-centre supermarkets/foodstores in Northwich. The lack
of investment in Northwich coupled with the strengthening of the retail offer in other centres has
contributed to the high level of outflow from the immediate area.
7.119
In order to deal with the lack of investment and to help claw back expenditure available locally as well
as improve consumer choice and access to high quality shopping provision, the proposed
redevelopment of Baron’s Quay is of sufficient scale and critical mass.
7.120
The development at this stage has a proposed floorspace (GIA) of 11,028 sq m for the superstore and
18,945 sq m of comparison goods floorspace, as well as the 7,878 sq m (GEA) of leisure space which
will create 37,851 sq. m of new commercial floorspace. As highlighted earlier the existing town centre
comprises 56,580 sq.m, and therefore the proposed development would represent a 66% increase in
size of Northwich Town Centre. Although this appears to be a significant increase, it is important to
note that the town centre has been physically constrained for decades due to the land stabilisation
constraints. This has in part led to significant retail development occurring at Northwich Retail Park
and along Manchester Road. GOAD estimates that there is 17,870 sq m of commercial space at
Northwich Retail Park which includes the existing Tesco along Manchester Road. When combined with
107
the town centre, GOAD estimate that there is 74,730 sq m of space in the settlement. The proposed
development represents just 50% of this space.
7.121
As set out in section 2, Northwich is considered within the RSS as a major focus point for comparison
goods retailing. WYG have previously reviewed a number of schemes that have been introduced
throughout the north-west over the last decade. These centres include Bury (The Rock) 57,600 sq m;
Wigan (Grand Arcade) 39,500 sq m, Altrincham (Stamford Quarter) 32,400 sq m, Workington
(Washington Place) 26,000 sq m and Warrington (Golden Square) 62,700 sq m. In addition to this
WYG are aware of schemes in Crewe (Delamere Place) having planning permission for over 23,000 sq
m (net) (net of replacement space), Macclesfield (Black Lane) 8,400 sq.m (gross) plus emerging
redevelopment proposals for the town centre. Not identified in the RSS but of significance in the local
retail market are the plans for over 11,000 sq m at Cheshire Oaks (new M&S). WYG considers that the
scale of development is comparable to that delivered in other identified centres in the RSS and
therefore it is considered that the scheme is of an appropriate scale when compared to other
comparable town centres within the wider retail hierarchy.
Any Locally Important Impacts
7.122
The final ‘centre’ consideration under the terms of Policy EC16 allows LPAs to define any locally
important impacts on centres which should be defined. However, no such locally important impacts
have been defined.
7.123
The introduction of major new floorspace to Northwich will ensure that Northwich can provide
appropriate and suitable commercial space that will be attractive to national retail operators. It is
unlikely that independent retailers will be able to secure space within the scheme mainly due to the
size of the units and the higher rental levels. WYG note that if Northwich is to deliver the step change
required to reverse local shopping patterns then it will be crucial that multiple retailers are secured
before independents. Independents offer a niche and specialist retail experience that is focused upon
a very specific market sector which does not necessarily attract significant levels of shoppers and
footfall. Notwithstanding this, the introduction of new outlets designed mainly for multiple operators
will increase patronage within the town centre which will bring in additional footfall for existing
independent retailers to benefit from. With potential increased footfall WYG believe that this will
provide a more favourable trading environment for smaller independents in more secondary locations.
108
7.124
Northwich is under considerable pressure from further out-of-centre retail development. Therefore, in
order to prevent significant expansion in out of centre locations, the Council need to be able to clearly
demonstrate that the proposals for Baron’s Quay are viable and deliverable. However, the more time
elapses without a formal proposal being taken forward the more questions will be asked about the
deliverability of a town centre scheme.
Summary
7.125
Despite the proposed development being located within part of the primary retail area and with the
site being allocated for town centre uses in an up to date development, WYG has, for robustness,
assessed the proposed development against of the key tests set out in PPS4
7.126
The assessment has clearly found that although the vitality and viability of Northwich is average at
present, the introduction of modern large retail attraction will have a dramatic impact on the future
role and function of the town centre. The proposed development will clearly deliver the allocation of
the site contained with the development plan and will ensure that other sites can then come forward
in the sequential order established by the development plan.
7.127
The assessment has considered the economic impact of a number of scenarios whereby the possibility
different end operators could be secured. The results show that there will be no adverse impact on
either Northwich town centre or other surrounding centres.
109
8.0 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
8.01
This assessment has shown that Northwich shows average signs of vitality and viability at present.
Against the wider economic conditions, the town centre has performed resiliently in recent years.
However, our assessment has shown that there are significant deficiencies in the level of comparison
goods retailing in Northwich which results in significant expenditure being lost to competing centres
elsewhere.
8.02
This assessment has demonstrated that there is a clear qualitative and qualitative need for the
proposed development, based on seeking to enhance Northwich’s retailing position in the wider sub
region following the recent investment in land stabilisation. The proposed development will help
reverse current unsustainable shopping patterns to competing centres outside Northwich’s immediate
catchment area. This will be delivered through claw back of available expenditure within the local
area that is currently spent elsewhere.
8.03
The proposal has been purposely designed to appeal to multiple retailers who are seeking
representation in the town centre, but who are currently unable to secure representation in the town
due to limited availability of appropriately sized modern outlets. The proposal will therefore address
the clear deficiency in commercial accommodation in the town centre which will increase the
attractiveness of Northwich to more national retailers. A composite analysis of competing centres
shows the magnitude of retailer representation elsewhere which clearly influences people’s current
shopping habits.
8.04
This assessment has clearly demonstrated that there is still a qualitative and quantitative need for the
proposed level of floorspace, including the need for new convenience floorspace, based on new
empirical evidence following the original allocation of the site in the development plan.
8.05
The assessment has shown that Baron’s Quay is part located within the primary retail area, and its
allocation will deliver a natural extension to the primary retail area. Therefore, WYG do not believe
that policy EC15 of PPS4 is required to be satisfied. However, for robustness this assessment has
found that there are no sequentially preferable alternatives to the proposed development either within
the town centre or other edge of centre locations.
110
8.06
This assessment has demonstrated that the cumulative impact of Baron’s Quay will not have an
adverse impact on the performance of Northwich town centre in the short to long term and negligible
impact on other centres elsewhere. Baron’s Quay will actually bring back significant levels of trade to
the town centre which is in accordance with the Government’s economic objectives.
8.07
The proposal will create nearly 1,400 direct FTE jobs for the local community, as well as indirect jobs
in relation to construction and support services.
8.08
The assessment has shown that the proposed development will help reduce travel patterns by
delivering alternative retail attractions that will reduce the need of shoppers to travel further to other
town centre to satisfy their shopping needs.
8.09
The assessment has demonstrated that despite the significant level of floorspace proposed it is
comparable to that delivered in other town centre of a comparable position to Northwich. The delivery
of such development has in all (with the exception of one) cases helped to enhance and alleviate that
town centre.
8.10
Baron’s Quay will not prejudice the delivery of other allocated sites in and around the town centre, but
is more likely to be the catalyst for further investment and ensure that other more central sites are
delivered in accordance with the development plan.
8.11
The Baron’s Quay site is positioned is a highly accessible position well connected to the rest of the
town centre’s primary activity and will represent a sustainable economic development. However, with
considerable pressure on the delivery of new retail floorspace in Northwich, it is incumbent on the
Council to secure the redevelopment of the site in a timely manner to ensure that the scheme is
considered to be viable, suitable and available.
8.12
We can conclude that the proposed development accords with policies within PPS4 and Policies within
the development plan and should therefore be considered favourably.
111

90.11 Barons Quay Impact Final

Transcription

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