Transmission of dispatchable solar energy from

Transcription

Transmission of
dispatchable solar energy from
North Africa to Central Europe
Dipl.-Ing. Denis Hess (DLR)
Rabat, 28.10.2013
Source: Hess, D. (2013):
Fernübertragung regelbarer Solarenergie
von Nordafrika nach Mitteleuropa
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Examination area – Baden‐Württemberg (BW) decentralized renewable energies (RE) and storages
large power plants of dispatchable renewable
energies
Examination area
feeding point into the AC grid
~ 100 % RE
import of dispatchable
renewable energy
HVDC
point-to-point
balancing authority
area
distribution network
AC
HVDC
point-to-point
transmission network
AC
import of dispatchable
renewable energy
Systems Analysis &
10.8 mio. inhabitants, 80 TWh/y ‐ in the year 2012 Source: (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden‐
W%C3%BCrttemberg)
Paradigm change in the load range
until the year 2050
Power [MW]
Power [MW]
summer
in the year 2012 in BW
peak load
mid-load
feeding of
fluctuating RE
residual load with
dispatchable RE
base load
week in summer
100% RE
peak load
Power [MW]
Power [MW]
winter
week in summer
feeding of
fluctuating RE
mid-load
residual load with
dispatchable RE
base load
week in winter
Systems Analysis &
week in winter
Renewable energies for Baden‐Württemberg
60000
Photovoltaics
installed capacity [MW]
50000
Wind Onshore
Wind Offshore
40000
River Runoff
Pump Storage, CAES
Hydrogen Storage
30000
Gas Turbines
Combined Cycle
20000
Coal Plants
Nuclear Plants
10000
Lignite Plants
Import Hydro
Wood, Biogas
0
scenarioscenarioscenarioscenarioscenarioscenario
1
2
1
2
1
2
share of RE
year
18%
40%
2012
2022
55%
55%
2025
70%
70%
2030
95%
95%
2050
The decision for scenario 2 is already TODAY necessary!
Systems Analysis &
Biomass, Waste
Geothermal
Import CSP
peak Load
Time series of power production by type of power plant
Systems Analysis &
System problems in Baden‐Württemberg in the year 2050 with 95% renewable energy (RE) in electricity supply
installed capacity: 35 GW
installed capacity: 55 GW
Quo vadis?
dependence
of gas
production surpluses
with dispatchable energy on
demand -> ideal power mix
2050
95% RE
Two scenarios for the year 2050, each with 95% renewable energies for the electricity supply in Baden-Württemberg
Today, the decision must be made specifically for the choice of one way!
Systems Analysis &
Transmission of dispatchable solar energy: CSP‐HVDC site
1500 MWel,net
 9,3 TWh/y
DNI
heat / steam
mechanics
Alternating Current - AC
Direct Current - DC
feeding point into the
AC grid
heat storage
cofiring
converter
transmission
2600km HVDC
turbine
CSP - collectors
average utilization 6200 h/y
land area ~ 150 km²
generator
2200 MWel,gross (17 x 130 MW)
1700 MWel,net (17 x 100 MW)
converter
1700 MWel,gross
DNI: Direct Normal Irradiance
CSP: Concentrating Solar Power
HVDC: High Voltage Direct Current
Systems Analysis &
CSP model sites in Morocco
Exclusion areas
DNI potential
2
Model sites only,
no planification!
1
[kWh/m²y]
settlements
protected areas
water
agriculture and forest
slope (>2%)
dunes
no exclusion
exclusion
The economic CSP potenital in the northern part of Morocco is at about 8450 TWh/y with
18500 km² CSP gross land demand
‐> one site with 150 km² needs only 0.8% of this potential
Systems Analysis &
First design of the CSP‐HVDC site, cost and land requirements
MOR-E-F-D
HVDC 2600 km
1.7 GW / 1.5 GWnet
1,9 – 5,1 billion €
150 km²
O&M:
4-5 €Cent/kWh
LCOE:
12-15 €Cent/kWh
CSP 2.2 GW
CSP 12 -18 billion €
150 km²
Daxlanden (Dax)
Eichstetten (Eic)
MOR-E-F-D
HVDC 2300 km
1.7 GW / 1.5 GWnet
3,7 – 4,9 billion €
75km²
CSP 2.2 GW
CSP 12 -18 billion €
150 km²
-> 9.32 TWh/a
16-23 billion € (real 2010)
feasible until 2024
Systems Analysis &
Missour (Mis)
Marrakesh (Mar)
EEZ sea borders
Adequate permanent payment for the required land
Overhead line
unit
€
∙ ²∙
covered
area
mast base (grey)
70 m
Restriction of agriculture through the mast base (blue)
+ pole
‐ pole
cheaper overhead line and more expensive underground cable can reach through this compensation payment cost neutrality within their lifetime!
safety conductor
protective strip
Underground cable
safety conductor
4 m
+ pole
Systems Analysis &
‐ pole
free choice of technology is made possible ‐>
increased acceptance
€
90
~40 80
70
0.67 – 1.56 costs for the consumers
€
Cp.: agricultural profit in BW*: ~ 8 ²
€
²
60
50
40
30
20
10
Morocco
incl. CSP plant
Spain
France
Germany
Mar-Dax cable
Mar-Dax overhead
Mis-Eic cable
Mis-Eic overhead
Mar-Dax cable
Mar-Dax overhead
Mis-Eic cable
Mis-Eic overhead
Mar-Dax cable
Mar-Dax overhead
Mis-Eic cable
Mis-Eic overhead
Mar-Dax cable
Mar-Dax overhead
Mis-Eic cable
0
Mis-Eic overhead
mio. €/y
Annual income for the concerned nations, their municipalities
and landowners (riparians) – each time with 4 routes
annual income for the nations
and their municipalites from the
concession fee
annual income for the nations
and their municipalites from tax
of the motivation payment
annual income for the
landowners from the motivation
payment
annual income for the
landowners from the decreasing
value
Today only the blue value is
paid for the construction of
transmission lines in Germany ONCE!
Source:*Landwirtschaftliche Betriebsverhältnisse und Buchführungsergebnisse 2012
Systems Analysis &
The trafic light model
of the decision ways
year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2019
2024
Systems Analysis &
Time limit for a decision
Systems Analysis &
How can the investment be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low?
Investment:
16-23 billion €
capital costs
we need:
a short capital
repayment period
The tariff will be high but only for
a short time
Systems Analysis &
we need:
garantees
e.g.: AAA,
Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA)
In a european electricity market all
consumers profit from constant
cheap electricity
-> apportionment of the tariff on a
high number of consumers
Tariff of the CSP-HVDC-site [€/kWh]
Tariff of the CSP‐HVDC site Mis‐Eic with underground
cable ‐ How can 16 billion € be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low? 2.10
2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
capital
repayment
Kapitalrückzahlung
period
40 years
sdauer
40 Jahre
capital repayment 1 year
capital
repayment
Kapitalrückzahlung
period
20 years
sdauer
20 Jahre
capital
repayment
Kapitalrückzahlung
period
10 years
sdauer
10 Jahre
capital
repayment
Kapitalrückzahlung
period
5 years
sdauer
5 Jahre
capital repayment 5 years
…
capital
repayment
Kapitalrückzahlung
period
1 year
sdauer
1 Jahr
Kosten
fossiler
cost
of dispatchable
regelbarer Energie
fossil fuels
additional cost of
dispatchable fossil fuels
O&M CSP‐HVDC site
1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739
year of operation - start in 2025
Systems Analysis &
How can 16 billion € be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low?
Apportionment of the costs on all electricity customers
3.5
Umlage Deutschland mit 600 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
for
Germany with 600 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
[€Cent/kWh]
3
2.5
Umlage Frankreich und Deutschland mit 1100 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
for
France and Germany with 1100 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
2
1.5
Umlage Europa (Entso‐e) mit 3300 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
for
Europe (Entso‐e) with 3300 TWh/a [€Cent/kWh]
1
0.5
0
1
2
5
10
15
20
30
40
Capital repayment period [y]
billion
Savings (black) and additional costs (red) accumulated in 40 years versus dispatchable fossil fuels (coal / gas)
interests = 9,9%
discount rate = 1,3%
4 €
2 €
0 €
‐2 €
1
2
5
10
15
‐4 €
‐6 €
‐8 €
‐10 €
Capital repayment period [y]
Systems Analysis &
20
30
40
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
For an electricity system with ~100% RE dispatchable renewable energy is
necessary
Only CSP with a new HVDC point-to-point infrastructure can enable an
export of dispatchable renewable energy form North Africa to Europe
A CSP plant with 150 km² needs only 0.8% of the potential in the northern
part of Morocco
The investment costs are at about 16-23 billion € for CSP and HVDC
If we decide in 2013/2014 the project could be feasible until 2025
Due to the compensation costs for the required land area, overhead
transmission lines and underground cables can reach cost neutrality
To avoid high capital costs garantees (AAA, PPA) and a short capital
repayment period are needed
Systems Analysis &
Transmission of
dispatchable solar energy
from North Africa to Central Europe
Communication platform
for online public participation:
First ideas
Systems Analysis &
Declaration of intent on state level
green: in favour
red: refusal
white: not yet decided
Systems Analysis &
Declaration of intent on regional level
green: in favour
red: refusal
Systems Analysis &
Declaration of intent on municipal level
Systems Analysis &
green: in favour
red: refusal
Declaration of intent on owner level
Systems Analysis &
green: in favour
red: refusal
On the interactive website can also appear:
• Image video about this potential project (animation of the
power plant function, need in the energy system of a Central
European control area, data and interviews with affected
people of the power station, the transmission line and
electricity customers)
• All current activities with citizens, in politics, science and
economy
• Schedule of citizen participation and overall schedule
• All data in the field of economy, ecology, technology, social
and institutional
• Already achieved progress and critique
Systems Analysis &
Further steps
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
preparation of a handbook for public participation
publication of further scientific studies on the necessity of
dispatchable solar electricity imports to Baden-Wuerttemberg on a
multilingual website
questioning of citizens in case studies in exemplary communities
detailed cost-benefit analysis with risk assessment
cooperation with ENTSO, TransnetBW, RTE, REE, ONEE in
preparation for the inclusion in the "Union List" of a project with
common interests (EU Regulation 347/2013)
support of the necessary application documents and the required
measures
search for suitable project responsible
Systems Analysis &
„Ways connect people“
Thank you for your attention!
Systems Analysis &
Source: http://www.ribapylondesign.com/
Former projects related to the topics •
MENA Regional Water Outlook – CSP for Seawater Desalination in the
Middle East and North Africa, World Bank (2012), www.dlr.de/tt/menawater
•
REACCESS - Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for European
Supply Security, European Commission (2011), http://reaccess.epu.ntua.gr/
•
AQUA-CSP - Concentrating Solar Power for Seawater Desalination,
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (2007), www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
•
TRANS-CSP - Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar
Power, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety (2006), www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
•
MED-CSP - Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region,
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (2005), www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
Systems Analysis &
Selected publications
•
MED-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
•
TRANS-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp and http://elib.dlr.de/83385/
•
AQUA-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
•
MED-CSD www.med-csd-ec.eu/eng/
•
MENA Regional Water Outlook www.dlr.de/tt/menawater
•
Financing concentrating solar power in the Middle East and North
Africa – Subsidy or investments? Energy Policy 39 (2011) 307-317
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.045
•
Solar electricity imports from Middle East and North Africa to Europe
Energy Policy 42 (2012) 341-353
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.091
Systems Analysis &
Contact
Dr. Franz Trieb [email protected]
Jürgen Kern
[email protected]
Tobias Fichter [email protected]
Massimo Moser [email protected]
Denis Hess
[email protected]
+49 711 6862 - 423
+49 711 6862 - 8119
+49 711 6862 - 334
+49 711 6862 - 779
+49 711 6862 - 370
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)
Institut für Technische Thermodynamik
System Analysis und Technology Assessment
Wankelstr. 5 | 70563 Stuttgart | Germany
www.DLR.de/tt/
Systems Analysis &

Transmission of dispatchable solar energy from

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