2015 IHS Global Attack Index

ATTACKS BY GROUP – TOP 10
IHS Aerospace, Defence & Security
www.ihs.com/jtic
2015 IHS Global Attack Index
Acts of terrorism, insurgency, and violent protest recorded worldwide by IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre in 2015
Sweden
11
2
Poland
1
0
Czech Republic
3
0
Italy
7
0
Denmark
7
2
Switzerland
2
Germany
Montenegro
2
0
Hungary
1
0
Serbia
1
0
Macedonia
4
1
Greece
28
0
0
Bulgaria
1
0
67
0
Finland
3
0
Netherlands
3
0
Ukraine 1113
Belgium
2
0
Turkey 348
France
51
150
United Kingdom 151
0
Jordan
125
Bahrain
8
3
Iran
19
24
China
10
61
431
Kyrgyzstan
4
4
403
Tajikistan
3
14
North Korea
1
0
4
8
Ireland
13
1
Syria 5496 7230
South Korea
3
0
Bosnia-Herzegovina
4
3
Iraq 3748 8005
Uzbekistan
2
0
Japan
4
0
0
Kosovo
10
0
Georgia
1
0
St. Vincent & Grenadines
1
0
Albania
8
0
Armenia
2
0
United States
38
32
Haiti
2
1
Guatemala
3
3
Mexico
10
2
Israel
Salvador
1
0
Nicaragua
3
Venezuela
7
Brazil
3
3
Pakistan 666
956
37
93
Nepal 123
18
Gaza & West Bank 450
23
Bangladesh 318
94
109
19
Kuwait
27
Morocco
1
0
3
Algeria
18
43
1
Senegal
1
105
Guinea
0
Tunisia
Myanmar 193
71
8
2
Thailand 167
112
Mauritania
1
0
1
Mali
86
142
Cote d’lvoire
3
14
Bolivia
3
0
Paraguay
13
9
Chile
17
0
Argentina
3
0
Uruguay
2
0
>1 Quarter
2
7
Maldives
3
2829
27
252
Cameroon
45
278
Gabon
1
0
Angola
1
0
Congo Brazzaville
1
0
CAR
56
86
Chad
18
153
DRC 189
373
South Africa
3
4
Lesotho
1
0
1
2
0
Libya 294
0
Yemen 551
1446
Sudan 364
423
Ethiopia
4
0
Somalia
278
554
Kenya
59
230
Uganda
3
1
Tanzania
4
2
South Sudan
80
234
Burundi
51
75
Malawi
1
0
Mozambique
9
2
185
616
Indonesia
4
5
Australia
7
1
6,501 (34%)
Engagement
5,131 (27%)
Assassination
2,538 (13%)
Ambush
858 (5%)
Hit & Run
750 (4%)
Raid
731 (4%)
Riot
639 (3%)
Assault
606 (3%)
ATTACKS AND NON-MILITANT CASUALTIES
2015
9,325 (49%)
Random/Indiscriminate
4,358 (23%)
Other/Unknown
1,852 (10%)
Non-State Armed Groups
1,815 (10%)
Commerce & Industry
1,796 (9%)
Identity Groups
1,479 (8%)
1,695
FEB
1,441
MAR
1,590
Wounded
Fatalities
APR
Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Political
A total of 3,317 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the Islamic
State in open sources in 2015 – more than six times the total of any
other group – consolidating the group’s position as the most prolific
and predominant non-state armed group worldwide. The number of
attacks increased by more than 50% from 2014, marking an
intensification of the group’s operations in Iraq and Syria – which
accounted for 92% of its attacks – but also the increasing regional
spread of the group. Attacks by the Islamic State, its official affiliates,
and its supporters, were recorded in 28 countries worldwide in 2015,
with Libya, Afghanistan, and Egypt the most notable other areas of
operation.
In Yemen, a total of 285 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,
Ansar Allah in open sources in 2015. This made Ansar Allah –
popularly known as the Houthis and previously named Al-Shabab
al-Muminin – the sixth most active group recorded worldwide, an
increase from tenth in 2014 with the recorded number of attacks
more than doubling. Following Ansar Allah’s seizure of Sanaa in
September 2014, further advances south into Aden prompted a
military intervention by a Saudi-led coalition in March and the
beginning of a wider civil conflict that continues to rage. Ansar Allah
has focused its operations on security forces and tribal militiamen
loyal to the overthrown government.
2 JABHAT AL-NUSRA
7 LUHANSK PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC (LPR)
Scope: Domestic Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary
A total of 551 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, Al-Qaeda’s
Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, in open sources in 2015. For the
second year running this made Jabhat al-Nusra the second most active
group recorded worldwide, although the number of attacks increased
only slightly from 2014. As with the Islamic State, the total number of
Jabhat al-Nusra attacks across the year was likely far higher than could
be definitively attributed to it, with the group heavily involved in fighting
against the Syrian government and its non-state allies, principally as a
leading member of militant Islamist coalition Jaish al-Fatah, which made
notable territorial gains in the northwest of the country.
Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Separatist
In Ukraine a total of 268 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the
pro-Russia separatist Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) in open sources
in 2015. This made the LPR the seventh most active group recorded
worldwide. Although the LPR’s operational tempo was half that of the
neighbouring DPR, the organistation’s forces maintained a fairly steady
tempo across the course of 2015 following the breakdown of the February 2015 ceasefire. As with the DPR, attacks by LPR forces were characterised by small-arms and mortar/artillery fire targeting military forces
on frontlines across Luhasnk oblast, with a notable spike in such operations in August.
3 DONETSK PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC (DPR)
8 BOKO HARAM
Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Separatist
In Ukraine a total of 526 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the
pro-Russia separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in open
sources in 2015. This made the DPR the third most active group
recorded worldwide, reflecting the intensification of the separatist
conflict in the east of the country, centred on the oblasts of Donetsk
and Luhansk, with the recorded number of attacks by the forces
operating as part of the DPR doubling from 2014. While the
agreement of a ceasefire in February resulted in a low operational
tempo across early 2015, a steady tempo of attacks persisted from
April onwards, with a notable spike in violence in November.
Scope: Domestic Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary
4 TALIBAN
9 PARTIYA KARKERÊN KURDISTAN (PKK)
Scope: Domestic Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary
In Afghanistan, a total of 502 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,
the Taliban in open sources in 2015. This made the Taliban the fourth
most active group recorded worldwide, with the recorded number of
Taliban operations increasing by almost 10% at a time when overall
levels of violence in Afghanistan fell slightly. Across the year the
Taliban increased its territorial holdings in rural areas alongside
growing attempts to take and hold district centres. Significantly, the
group briefly seized control of Kunduz city in late September,
underlining both its growing capabilities and the inability of the Afghan
state to adequately defend territory without substantial NATO
assistance, as shown in Helmand in December.
Scope: Domestic Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Reformist
Scope: Domestic Orientation: Marxist/Maoist Objective: Revolutionary
In India, a total of 337 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the
Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-M) in open sources in 2015.
This made the CPI-M the fifth most active group recorded worldwide,
albeit a decrease from fourth in 2014, and a slight decrease in the
recorded number of attacks. This decrease was part of a wider decrease
in the level of violence in India by more than 20%. While the group’s
operational tempo decreased slightly in early 2015 in response to growing counter-terrorism operations, the level of violence increased thereafter, in spite of a spike in counter-terrorism activity in July, although
operations remained typically low-intensity.
ATTACKS AND NON-MILITANT FATALITIES BY REGION
Attacks
ASIA
2014
Fatalities
Syria
6,092
4,248
3,884
ATTACKS BY COUNTRY – TOP 10
RANK 1
1,590
18,987
3,170
3,244
3,602
2,573
4,302
2,920
2,432
2,314
2,582
MAY
1,536
36,839
JUN
1,464
JUL
1,684
AFRICA
Iraq
2,730
3,138
3,946
3,645
2,755
2,883
2,901
2,456
18,324
11,284
1,531
OCT
1,717
NOV
1,652
DEC
1,125
Ukraine
337
India
Pakistan
Yemen
29,424
2,958
2,785
2,413
2,635
2,047
2,384
1,813
1,937
1,906
995
394
Gaza & WB
397
Egypt
445
Sudan
RANK 8
FRANCE: 3
MALI: 3
Scope: Transnational Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary
In Somalia and neighbouring countries, a total of 236 attacks were
claimed by, or attributed to, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen in open
sources in 2015. This made Al-Shabaab the tenth most active group
recorded worldwide, with only a negligible increase in the group’s
operational tempo from 2014. While Al-Shabaab maintained
asymmetric operations across the year against domestic security forces
and AMISOM peacekeepers, the group also periodically assaulted and
retook control of towns in its key areas of operation, as well as
overrunning several military bases, most notably killing at least 50
Burundian peacekeepers in an assault on their base in June.
MILITANT FATALITIES
YEMEN:
TURKEY: 7
LEBANON: 3
SYRIA: 108
43,523
KILLED
KUWAIT: 1
884
666
551
RANK 7
450
RANK 8
RANK 10
EUROPE & EURASIA
10 HARAKAT AL-SHABAAB AL-MUJAHIDEEN
1,113
RANK 6
RANK 11
1,385
EGYPT: 9
LIBYA: 16
TUNISIA: 1
CHINA: 1
RANK 5
RANK 6
159
1,185
In Turkey, a total of 246 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,
Kurdish militant group the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK) in open
sources in 2015. This made the PKK the ninth most active group
recorded worldwide. This represented a substantial increase from the
just 43 PKK attacks recorded in 2014 due to the peace process
between the PKK and Ankara that continued through 2014 and into
early-to-mid 2015, before collapsing in July. There was a surge in
guerrilla operations by the PKK thereafter, peaking in August. While
the PKK declared a month-long unilateral ceasefire during elections
in October, violence resumed thereafter and continued at a steady
tempo.
RANK 4
RANK 4
668
3,748
A total of 260 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, Boko Haram
in open sources in 2015, predominantly conducted in Nigeria alongside a more sporadic tempo of attacks in the neighbouring countries
of Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. This made Boko Haram the eighth
most active group recorded worldwide, with an almost 50% increase
in the number of attacks from 2014. Despite suffering the loss of all
territorial holdings and enduring growing military pressure from multinational forces, in 2015 Boko Haram became an official Islamic State
affiliate and intensified operations in the northeast of Nigeria and
launched repeated punitive cross-border operations – frequently
utilising young, female suicide bombers.
SUICIDE ATTACKS BY COUNTRY
RANK 3
RANK 5
1,147
AMERICAS
SEP
Afghanistan
RANK 9
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
5,496
RANK 2
RANK 3
419
AUG
1,702
1,279
5,657
1,574
2015
RANK 1
RANK 2
PRIMARY TARGETS 2015
Security Forces
JAN
Attacks
Scope: Transnational Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary
5 COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA – MAOIST (CPI-M)
total non-militant fatalities
PRIMARY TACTICS 2015
Stand-off/Area Attack
Malaysia
Niger
>1 Year
8
Philippines 308
Nigeria 273
Frequency of attacks:
>1 Month
Sri Lanka
Burkina Faso
Key
total attacks
India
580
0
2
Country
Egypt 375
294
13
>1 Week
1
884
Peru
>1 Day
Afghanistan 1185 2449
82
Lebanon 106
6 ANSAR ALLAH
24
66
2
Ecuador
54
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Colombia 213
Russian Federation
1 ISLAMIC STATE
375
RANK 9
364
RANK 10
NIGER: 3
SAUDI
ARABIA: 5
NIGERIA: 71
CAMEROON:
CAMEROON: 12
YEMEN: 21
CHAD: 8
SOMALIA: 19
PHILIPPINES: 1
PAKISTAN: 24
AFGHANISTAN: 91
IRAQ: 237
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