Report by Alpentech, Inc. - Catskill Heritage Alliance
Transcription
Report by Alpentech, Inc. - Catskill Heritage Alliance
Bealleayre Mountain Ski Center Draft Unit Management Plan Review and Recommendations Prepared for by Catskill Heritage Alliance PO Box 88, Shandaken NY 12480 July 17, 2013 Alpentech, Inc. 2871 S 2870 E Salt Lake City Utah 84109 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Executive Summary Our review of the draft Unit Management Plan (UMP) for Belleayre Mountain Ski Center (BMSC) raises questions about the overall redesign of the Ski Center, proposed alternatives, and technical specifics. The main report and comprehensive ski area map review these in detail. The Executive Summary emphasizes four main areas of concern. 1. Proposed mountain layout and skier safety. The proposal to establish a "base area" by expanding the Discovery Lodge and adding a high speed summit lift creates bottlenecks in skier traffic flow and increases the likelihood of skier collisions. The current layout of Belleayre allows beginner skiers to learn on terrain at the base of the mountain and be served by the Discovery Lodge while more advanced skiers stay on the upper mountain, with the Overlook and Summit Lodges serving them. The new design would encourage all skiers to begin and end their day at the base Discovery Lodge area and return there for services throughout the day and to use the high- speed summit lift. This arrangement allows for a traffic pattern to develop that would combine beginners with advanced skiers on the novice terrain, which would no longer be a safe, dedicated learning environment but would become a crowded descent path to the base area lodge. This mixing of skiers of disparate abilities and an increase in skier volume on the beginner trails would result in a higher likelihood of collisions. The proposed West Side and Highmount trail system would add to skier congestion by funneling skiers to the base area from the western slopes, which would be the easiest route to a lodge. The Overlook and Summit lodges would be more difficult for western slope skiers to access. The western trail network would create additional safety concerns with numerous trail intersections, short run outs on steep runs, and tight staging areas at base lift terminals. The proposed Tubing Hill terrain is too steep and raises safety concerns. The current trail layout of BMSC respects the topography of the mountain and creates a harmonious arrangement where beginners have their own area on the lower mountain and more advanced skiers can spend the day on the upper mountain. The proposed base lodge area concept would disrupt this balance. By adding an unloading/loading station to the proposed high speed summit lift at mid-mountain, though, advanced skiers could be moved onto the upper mountain in the morning and still use the new high-speed lift throughout the day to access the upper mountain. This arrangement as well as continued operation of the Overlook Lodge would help maintain the existing well-designed trail network of Belleayre. The base lodge area concept also introduces several energy issues: the amount of energy expended to move advanced skiers uphill past terrain they would rather not ski and the greater fuel requirements for maintenance activities as a result of moving the maintenance building from mid-mountain to the base of the mountain. 2. East Side alternative. An East Side trail network is mentioned in the UMP but not described and analyzed. We have described an alternative that includes both winter and all season recreation and urge the DEC to consider it: a trail network served by one lift on the upper mountain to the east of the existing Cathedral Brook trail and a Zip Line on the lower mountain, 1 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 beginning near the mid-mountain snowmaking reservoir, traveling through the Cathedral Brook ravine, and ending above the snowmaking reservoir by the railroad bed. Access to the Zip Line from the hamlet of Pine Hill would be by an existing hiking trail and a proposed Pulse gondola, which would also allow access to the mid-mountain in the winter. The East Side has several comparative advantages over West Side and Highmount trail network as a way of expanding the amount of advanced terrain at Belleayre. Although the Highmount trails are steeper overall, the East Side trails have 271 greater vertical feet and are 1290 feet longer. The East Side is already within the Forest Preserve and in BMSC’s intensive use footprint. It requires no purchase. It could be incorporated more smoothly into the existing trail network and would allow advanced skiers to stay on the upper mountain all day with easy access to the Overlook and Summit lodges. Its location close to existing snowmaking reservoirs would require water to be transported less distance. With one lift and roughly half the acreage, it would be cheaper to operate on an annual basis than the western trail network. 3. West Side and Highmount trail network. In addition to the skier safety issues described in point 1, above, there are several unresolved questions about this proposed trail network. Foremost is the requirement that former Highmount ski area be purchased from Crossroads Ventures and classified for inclusion in the Forest Preserve. The UMP also does not describe how this western area would connect to and be incorporated with the proposed Belleayre Resort complex, which borders it, to allow skiers to access the Ski Center without creating undesirable skier traffic problems or complicated and energy inefficient shuttle transfers of skiers. Snowmaking noise mitigation measures as described in the UMP may make it difficult, in marginal winters, to open the bottom of the Highmount trails in a timely fashion. Our preliminary cost estimates (using industry standards) to operate the western system shows it is 46% more expensive to operate than the East Side; snowmaking system installation would cost about 47% more than that of the East Side. Because the western slopes end right above Route 49A, storm water run off would flow directly into the ditch/culvert system of the highway, which was not engineered to accommodate ski area storm water runoff, only runoff from undeveloped forested hillsides. 4. Finally, the Full Build Out alternative is given a price tag of $74 million, but no cost breakdowns by alternative are given, nor are cost-benefit analyses offered, and no rationale beyond historical skier growth given to show how BMSC will double its annual skier visits. 2 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Unit Management Plan (UMP) Review The Catskill Heritage Alliance asked Alpentech to evaluate the current Draft Unit Management Plan for the Belleayre Mountain Ski Center (BMSC) with a particular emphasis on the overall design of the expansion and the costs associated with various alternatives. The preliminary costs that we project are for comparative purposes. Undertaking any particular alternative would require specific costing of systems, components, energy consumption, and labor. Alpentech was also asked to explore the feasibility of an East Side system of lifts and trails, as this alternative was described as “conceptual” in the UMP, with no detail. Our report reviews issues associated with the “Full Build Out” of the UMP such as safety, climate change, skier circulation patterns, storm water management, and cost. Findings are detailed in the following sections. Overview Focus of study area Depending on how Ski Center Boundaries are drawn on maps and what features are excluded from the maps largely determines how the public’s attention will be focused. In the current UMP, the interface with the West Side development is not very clear and the eastern part of the BMSC footprint is nearly absent, whereas previously in the early 2000’s the East side of Belleayre was under active consideration for trail and lift development as part of the UMP past supervisor Tony Lanza was preparing. Although it is within the Forest Preserve, the East Side is relegated to “conceptual” status, with no analysis offered in the UMP. The former Highmount Ski Center, on the other hand, while not in the Forest Preserve and requiring purchase before it can be developed, gets full analysis. In mid-1990’s, when Highmount closed and no private buyers made offers to reopen it, the DEC rejected this parcel for both purchase and development. It would perhaps be more accurate to describe the Highmount alternative as conceptual, since it is not possible without a 100-acre land purchase—an unknown negotiation—and the East Side alternative as “possible,” only lacking the comparatively easier task of undertaking an analysis. Although priorities and needs may change over time, it is critical that the full footprint be considered, both east and west, to allow the public to make informed comments to encourage wise decisions on public investment. The hamlet of Pine Hill, although lying between the Pine Hill Lake Day Use Area and the Ski Center, is not considered in the benefits of Ski Center expansion, except in an abstract way. Although a prior proposal to install a lift down to Pine Hill in the late 1980’s and convert parts of upper Bonnieview Ave. to parking was met with community objection, other, less intensive ways of ingress to and from the Ski Center to the hamlet may be quite acceptable. Not offering any ideas for discussion effectively cuts Pine Hill out of potential benefits that public investment in the 3 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Ski Center could bring this community. Belleayre Mountain Ski Center was established in part to stimulate the local tourism economy. By offering new ideas about how this might be done with sensitivity to the environment and community desires would be an opportunity for the state to model Main Street revitalization and ecotourism in a sustainable way. Instead, renovation and expansion are oriented to the western slopes of Belleayre, which would logically benefit the hypothetical resort “community” of the proposed Belleayre Resort. This planning imbalance should be corrected to give all options fair consideration. An alternative Comprehensive Belleayre Mountain Master Plan has been drawn and is referred to as Map-1 below. Public benefit of Belleayre In the push to modernize Belleayre, first by transferring it to the Olympic Regional Development Authority (ORDA) and second by upgrading facilities and expanding ski terrain, the historic purpose of Belleayre as a public ski area in the Forest Preserve risks being compromised. With its abundance of moderate terrain, Belleayre has always been the perfect place to learn to ski and advance to more difficult slopes. Its relatively lower cost, in comparison to nearby private areas, has made it affordable to families, students, and less affluent state residents. Both features, educational role and affordability, have served to introduce skiing to thousands over the years, not only bringing new skiers into the skiing population but also helping to keep them there. This has been a critical role for the sport, and today, with declining skier numbers in the northeast (including New York), it is so evermore important. Yet higher lift ticket prices threaten the ability of families, students, and less affluent people to go skiing. Higher prices may be necessary to cover the increased costs of operating a larger Ski Center and to partially cover new capital costs. As skiing becomes more costly, it changes the composition of the skiing public. What was previously a middle class population changes to an affluent one. This trend could accelerate if the proposed Belleayre Resort gets developed, since the target audience for the Resort is the upper middle class to upper class, and this population would not only be able to afford higher prices but also demand services and facilities that are more expensive and high end. Families and people on a low income could not afford this type of ski area. This situation, the remaking of Belleayre to cater to a more affluent cliental, would overturn Belleayre’s historic role as an affordable ski area for the general public. It would be a grave policy mistake to allow a simple, rustic family-oriented public ski area to become indistinguishable from the exclusive private ski areas that are increasingly the dominant fare in the ski market Mountain topography Historically the Belleayre Ski Center has been designed to best take advantage of the topography of the mountain. This has resulted in a harmonious blend of beginner, intermediate, and more advanced terrain laid out in a way that isolates the beginner skiers on the lower half of the mountain while intermediate and more advanced skiers can remain on the upper mountain. This arrangement provides a safe, protective environment for new skiers and minimizes traffic from advanced skiers returning to lifts to ride to the top. It also acknowledges the topographic possibilities of Belleayre: abundant novice and intermediate terrain with trails on the upper 4 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 mountain where the grade on the face reaches advanced level for 200 to 300 vertical feet (See UMP Table 1.5-2, Existing Alpine Ski Trails). Advanced trails are also created by not grooming the trails and allowing moguls and ice to grow. On such trails, new artificial or natural snow improves the surface temporarily, making the trails easier to ski for a day until the new snow is skied off, but the structure of slope features is not cut down or groomed. Topography and skier demand In the current draft UMP the attempt to satisfy two demands, more advanced terrain and expanded lodge capacity, threatens to upset the prior harmonious layout of Belleayre and introduce skier traffic problems and safety issues. The “demand” for more advanced terrain is based on a marketing model for national ski areas (See UMP Table 3.2-7, Existing Terrain Distribution vs. Market Demand), yet Belleayre is not a “national” ski area in the sense that Jackson Hole, Aspen, or Alta is, for example. An attempt to fulfill the requirements of a model that better applies to larger mountains distorts what Belleayre excels at: novice and low intermediate to intermediate terrain. The UMP uses a market feasibility study that was conducted for Mount Sunapee in New Hampshire, not for Belleayre. The Mount Sunapee study uses northeastern skier distribution numbers from the NSAA Kottke research. Belleayre is located in an entirely different market of the northeast than Mount Sunapee (southeastern New York) and therefore should not be compared to any national and/or other northeastern standards. Further, the perception of demand for advanced terrain is not based on demographic surveys at Belleayre, or more general studies of the New York state skier population (over 80% of Belleayre skiers are from New York). Are current Belleayre skiers asking for more advanced terrain? Are some skiers saying they would ski at Belleayre only if more advanced terrain is added? Have large numbers exited Belleayre because of lack of steep terrain? For accurate planning, the Belleayre Ski Center needs a basic market feasibility study of its skiers and riders’ needs and numbers. A simple counting of the number of skiers per hour skiing the steepest terrain at Belleayre on a peak weekend could determine what percentage of the skiing population at Belleayre actually skies difficult terrain. From that figure we could calculate the need to expand difficult terrain given the overall growth, or decline, of the northeast or middle Atlantic skier market. UMP Table 3.2-1, Acceptable Terrain Gradient, defines low-intermediate trails as having an average slope of 26% to 30% (35% max) and intermediate trails as having a 31% to 40% average slope (40% max). Only two trails barely break into the advanced intermediate class: Chippewa and Upper Tongora have 40.5% average slopes. Of the proposed Highmount and West trails, six would rank intermediate classification, with short pitches of advanced terrain— basically a few quick turns. The majority of skiers (60%) are low intermediate (25%) and intermediate (35%), according to UMP Table 3.2-2, Market Ability Level Breakdown. Beginner and novice skiers fill 20% of the market, as do advanced and expert skiers. Because Belleayre’s terrain attracts an abundance of 5 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 novice to intermediate skiers, one would suspect that at Belleayre there are probably more novices than advanced skiers. UMP Table 3.2-7 identifies a deficit of both intermediate and advanced terrain at Belleayre. Although Belleayre’s topography doesn’t include advanced terrain, expect for very short pitches, it does offer a wealth of novice to low intermediate and intermediate terrain—terrain key to attracting new populations of skiers and growing a sport with declining numbers (for both demographic and climatic reasons). Belleayre’s topography is not well suited to enter the competition for advanced and expert skiers, who can almost always chose bigger mountains with sustained long runs of advanced terrain but also with beginner areas for less experienced family members and companions. Since very little true advanced terrain exists on Belleayre, the question isn’t how much more advanced terrain can we carve out of the mountain, but how can we maximize the mountain for beginner to intermediate skiers? Fortunately, the UMP offers improvements that will accomplish this: a new novice ski lift, expanded rental and ski school facilities, and an attractive base lodge adjacent to the lower mountain learning area. Yet, there are also inherent problems with making the focus of the mountain a base lodge area and adding ski trails on the west side. Circulation and safety problems The skier circulation, as presented in the UMP, needs to be overhauled. By building the expensive detachable Discovery lift, the skier circulation problems will likely never be fixed. The principal identification with teaching should be stressed and attention given to the connectivity between the current infrastructure nodes, the Base and Mid Mountain. Placing a detachable lift (identified as Express Lift on the Comprehensive Map-1) from the Discovery Lodge to summit, with unloading and loading at mid-mountain, is money well spent and will allow for retirement of the antique, slow, unpleasant double-double novice lifts. This antique lift connection between base and mid-mountain is forcing a much too expensive reorganization of Maintenance and Discovery Lodge buildings. Both may be necessary to renovate at some time, but skier numbers, even at current peak levels with a slight increase over time, don’t justify a 9,000 person capacity base lodge. With the entire Maintenance Shop area proposed for the base of the mountain, the carbon footprint of winter operations will be seriously affected: all groomers would have to mobilize from the base instead of the current mid-mountain elevation maintenance center. Thus many hours of driving time (and fuel) will be wasted on trips up and down the mountain to carry out routine maintenance activities. Also, with climate change, it will be harder to maintain snow cover on the lower mountain. This would make it more difficult for groomers to travel to the upper mountain to do their work. If the Maintenance Shop were kept at mid-mountain, this problem could be avoided. Efficiencies derived from continued mid-mountain operation must be a strong point in the analysis, and return of investment on new summer opportunities is needed (See section below on the summer Zip Line.). Unfortunately, funneling skiers from the upper mountain to the Discovery Lodge creates traffic patterns in the area where ski area managers least want them: the novice area. More 6 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 accomplished skiers are known to speed through flatter terrain as fast as they can. This not only creates dangerous congestion and increases the risk of skier collisions but also takes away important beginner terrain to mitigate the high flow of skiers descending to the base lodge for snack breaks, lunch, and end-of-the-day exit from the Ski Center. These skier traffic problems and impacts on beginner terrain are apparent by studying the flow patterns and number of trail intersections on the UMP’s comprehensive ski center map. The proposed base to summit Discovery Lift contributes to base lodge congestion by offering a new, fast lift that advanced skiers will end up taking when upper mountain lift lines are crowded. How will they access the lift? Through the novice learning area. Energy inefficiencies are created by the need to haul all upper mountain skiers through the lower mountain. It is a simple as this: potential energy, vertical feet times the weight, is lost due to inefficient staging. The suggested vertical movement of the West Side skier population, down and back up, through the Discovery Lodge is taxing in this sense. A way to avoid skier congestion would be to run either a short lift to the Tomahawk lift, where skiers bound for the upper mountain could unload. This would remove the incentive to return to the base lodge to ascend to the summit. Or the Express detachable lift proposed on Map-1 to an Overlook lodge mid-station unloading and then extension to the summit would also accomplish this goal. This latter option would allow one lift to service both novice skiers using the lower mountain and more advanced skiers using the upper mountain. A separate Novice Quad chair would not be required. The siting of new ski terrain at the former Highmount Ski Center, or West Side area, would unfortunately contribute to the skier traffic and congestion at the base lodge. Skiers on the western slopes would be funneled over the Tomahawk skier bridge to return to parking lots or the base lodge for lunch or breaks. It would be inconvenient for them to travel to the Overlook or Summit lodge from the western areas. The proposed Tomahawk Lodge would not be large enough to accommodate more than a small proportion of the western skiers. To summarize, the new Discovery Lodge and expanded parking areas may solve comfortable carrying capacity problems in one way, but the imperative for skiers to return to the new base area for services and a summit lift creates circulation and safety problems. The West and Highmount areas add to these skier flow and safety concerns by funneling an increased number of skiers down the west side to the base lodge. This is not a desirable, user-friendly circulation plan. We have already noted above that a different lift arrangement for moving skiers from the Discovery Lodge to the upper mountain would partially mitigate the circulation problems inherent in the base area plans. Expanding new intermediate terrain on the East Side of the mountain would also improve skier flow on the mountain and offer several other benefits over developing the western slopes. Trail and lift terminal design details Design details provided in the Draft Unit Management Plan are of interest to review for overall suitability of the proposed construction sites. The Highmount lift bottom terminal location provides a very tight staging area. The same is the case at the bottom terminal of the proposed Belleayre 7 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 West lift; both locations are not particularly suitable. Despite substantial excavation in both locations, these lifts will not have a satisfactory staging area. It is regrettable that the site transformation for accommodating the Bellearye West detachable lift will be a harsh visual impact. All skiers will funnel back to the Belleayre West lift on a narrow trail with a minimal congregation area. This seems to be a problematic new terminal location, requiring mandatory slow skiing. A more modest, less costly fixed grip lift installed on the same alignment as the detachable lift would require far less terrain modification. The Belleayre West lift would also be subject to closure from high winds, thus resulting in an unreliable transfer from West Side to the central ski area. One could ask if the lift transfer from Wildacres to the Discovery Lodge center has been given enough attention. It appears that a lower level lift would be desirable to provide a link to the Bellearye base, particularly during inclement weather conditions. Further study on how to minimize shuttle bus traffic between Wildacres and the Belleayre base would reduce the Ski Center’s carbon footprint. We propose a LINK Lift running from the area just east of the midmountain road intersection to the Tomahawk lift bottom terminal. This is an affordable, multifunction lift serving the Wildacres for parking return, transfer to the Discovery Lodge base and upper mountain staging via the popular Tomahawk lift that is justified to be upgraded to a detachable lift. A teaching hill could be established, returning from the LINK top terminal back to Wildacres via the skiers’ bridge. Teaching slopes for the high-end guests would be isolated from other traffic. See Map-1. The ease of return skiing to the Discovery bottom terminal is not given enough attention in the draft UMP. Once the massive Discovery Lodge is completed and the teaching is moved largely to the upper level facing the mountain, there is no room for returning skier circulation; congregation will have to be shared with first time beginner skiers. The location of the Discovery Lift is neither well planned for return skiers nor for summer sightseeing view rides nor mountain ingress. Many questions are unanswered about how the Wildacres resort will ultimately be integrated in the UMP. Once the Discovery Lodge is built as proposed, the use pattern at mid-mountain cannot be recovered. The state will incur a large investment to replace the maintenance area and parking, which the UMP suggests is supposedly in the wrong location. This situation is not clear, and a number of questions arise, such as: 1) How will the Discovery Lodge and the Overlook Lodge be connected? It would make sense to route the new proposed lift from the base to the top via the Overlook. See Express Lift on Map-1. The large, most expensive proposed lift from base to top bypasses the infrastructure that exists and will have mid-day loading gaps when most skiers that have graduated from beginner will congregate at the existing slopes served by the Tomahawk, Triple and Super Chief lifts. 2) How will intermediates skiers effectively ski to and from Wildacres resort? Is the intent to close the road during winter to mid mountain? The mid-mountain access road could become a convenient ski trail. Is the Wildacres skier depending on drop off /pick up service at the Discovery Lodge? Is the new upper parking lot opposite the Wildacres resort entry supposed to be for Wildacres guests? Neither skier egress nor ingress is obvious from the proposed plan. 3) How will the proposed lift system become user-friendly and efficient, considering established winter use patterns, increased summer use, and existing infrastructure? The proposed West 8 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Side lift appears to serve the most popular Belleayre trails poorly. The lift is wind exposed and visible and out of sync with the general skier demand. Lower intermediates would ride to the top where they don’t naturally belong. 4) How can the lower slopes be optimally served with one lift? No doubt, the best revenue comes from teaching Beginner skiers, and they have long deserved the ease of detachable loading/ unloading. Perhaps this should be the highest priority lift construction for Belleayre. Careful design of the terminals is critical for this lift, and the top terminal design sketches provided by Alpentech in 2003 may be useful which has addressed the skier traffic on both sides of the Overlook Lodge. We believe the skier circulation and capacity study at the Overlook Lodge of 2003 was not given enough attention. The above sketch shows a preliminary layout resulting from the study. The premise had been, to bring Beginner unloading from Lift and create a direct skiers passage on the skiers Left, shown above. By landing a detachable lift A onto the current turn around area, in close proximity to a bottom terminal of a similar lift B is proposed. Design of a single lift with a midway terminal is possible. Circulation is a critical element for the final lift layout l allowing good flow for skiers as well as serving pedestrians arriving by the same lift to ski and to attend summer concerts on the plaza. While this resulted in a loss of parking stalls, more stalls were planned nearby, located South of the existing Maintenance building. The plan required a pedestrian underpass and two bridges, to accommodate service destinations interfacing the day lodge buildings from below. Generally, day lodges with skiing interface on all but the lower side are more desirable than the Belleayre Overlook Lodge, having a dry pedestrian entry on the upper side of the building. We liked the 9 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 result: (a) ample skier capacity, (b) better on-level circulation and congregation space around the lodges, (c) some additional nearby parking, (d) landing all users all year long on the Discovery Plaza, and (e) creation of green space uphill of the Discovery Lodge.! 5) How will the popular summer gatherings at the Overlook Lodge be staged? The obvious location for a modern lift solution deserves to be of highest priority. Given the Discovery Lodge and parking expansion, concerts and all other summer uses that are being proposed will be able to utilize the same lift as the beginner skiers and it is possible to merge gondolas onto the chair lift if this is desirable in the future. 6) How can Pine Hill participate in the all season programs that are possible to take place? We have merely focused on one summer use concept, the zip line and ropes courses. The introduction of an all season access and summer view ride offer an additional, diversifying profit center for Belleayre and Pine Hill that deserves attention. See Map-1. 7) Although of little significance overall, Tubing is re-introduced in the Belleayre UMP. A very serious tubing accident took place in almost the same location in the 1990’s. Similar accidents will reoccur when a tubing hill is installed at an 18% fall line slope. The Bellearye operators seem to have forgotten the lesson that without a very generously dimensioned near-level runout zone, tubing slopes are dangerous. The proposed Tubing Hill, shown opposite as a black hatched area, is not drawn in a suitable location. Snowmaking Snowmaking is essential to survive in today’s market. Yet snowmaking systems are costly to install and even more to operate. In the UMP we did not see which type of system the new and improved snowmaking system will be running on, whether it is an entirely automated, semi-automated, or a true manual system. Snowmaking operating cost should not be more than 25% of operating costs, regardless. The new additional area of snowmaking is around 53 acres, which translates into a $1,060,000 investment of pipes, hydrants and snow makers and an additional $106,000 - $212,000 in annual operating cost. Even under the new system that the UMP proposes, the operating cost is still higher than many other resorts. (See Belleayre Basic Operating Cost Comparison table, below.) In the UMP significant factors were not addressed. One example is the dependency on fan guns at Belleayre, with currently over 12% of the system being fan guns--the most expensive option for snowmaking guns. Yet the new plan doesn’t improve this situation: it asks for more fan guns. Belleayre needs to reduce its dependence on fan guns and install more stick guns where it can. It 10 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 also needs to replace all of its internal mixing air and water ground guns with low E towers. Alternative, more sustainable systems have not been proposed to lower and/or eliminate energy costs, such as cooling the discharge temperature of the compressed air systems; water cooling systems; lower-friction piping systems; and airless stick gun systems. The snowmaking system currently proposed under the UMP does not have much extra capacity for adjustment if needed and is based on an older, more simply engineered snowmaking system. The current engineering drawings do not show a basis for clever water and air management or continuous energy control. Today's snowmaking systems work best under more pressure; therefore, the Belleayre system needs some booster pumps as well. The Core plans have a good water storing system, whereas the Highmount alternative has no water depository system. It may not matter under normal working circumstances, but when water becomes short of supply, the entire system will work more often under high demand (electric). This is a day-to-day issue and therefore operationally undesirable. Another problem we see is with the snowmaking water reservoir. Since a 20” pipe is proposed from the Pine Hill drainage to a new reservoir, enabling around 6,000 gallons per minute, a large quantity will be pumped to the Highmount area for snowmaking and therefore into another watershed where there will be limited recovery from snow-melt. If the water from the reservoir would be used for the East side and Core area, the recovery would be at the Pine Hill Lake. We know storage ponds help store as much water as possible during the winter and beginning of the season. Typically, the month leading into the winter months has little precipitation. On the other hand, the more pumps that are used in the system, the more energy is consumed. There is an optimal balance between storage and pumping, which might be saving initial and/or operational costs. Resizing, or elimination of the proposed storage reservoir, is likely a good change. Furthermore, with all the expansion, more snow groomers are needed, which will increase costs. One new fleet snow groomer costs around $220,000, and a terrain park groomer can cost up to $260,000. A resort’s operating cost can become very high very quickly. After analyzing the UMP, we believe the UMP has not fully disclosed all the hidden operating costs of its planned expansion and/or the costs are not known. From a pure operating cost/benefit perspective, much of the UMP has not received a solid cost/benefit analysis and consequently the revenue will not offset the ongoing operating costs on an affordable ticket price. Since one of the goals of the UMP, and a stated reason from transferring Belleayre from DEC management to ORDA, was for revenue to cover operating costs, this is a major deficit in the UMP. Before any of the expansion alternatives should be considered, a cost/benefit analysis against true skier demand and annual visitation is recommended. All commercial ski areas would undertake this fundamental exercise before making capital investment. The UMP states "In order to mitigate the noise impact of the phase 5 operation at the residences across Rt. 49A, the five lowest snow guns on the Highmount Trails should not be operated past 10 p.m." (section 4.10, page 27). The SDEIS for the proposed Belleayre Resort also mentions this mitigation measure in section 3.7, beginning on page 3-64. Page 3-66 identifies the snow guns as the "six north-most snowmakers on the west slope." Appendix 20, Noise Assessment, in the SDEIS, locates the noise problem as snowmaking along the two trails adjacent to the Highmount access road. The suggested mitigation measurement is to not allow snowmaking on these trails from 10 pm 11 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 to 7 am, or 9 hours per night. This measure raises the question of whether given the UMP's selected snowmaking machine (standard PoleCat) for these lower trail sections there would be adequate time to open and maintain these Highmount trails in a marginal season. As climate change from global warming increases, this would be a greater concern. Historic weather data in the Snowmaking Engineering Report (appendix B, pages 11-17) state that a minimum snowmaking temperature scenario in December (a hypothetical opening time for the Christmas holiday, for example) is 150 hours; an average temperature scenario is 389 hours (see page 16). The noise mitigation measure would restrict snowmaking 9 hours per night, 63 hours per week, or 270 hours per month. Opening a slope within 72 hours (3 days) is common in the East and possible especially since the bottom part of each slope is flat. Our concern is with only two PoleCats (fan guns) on each slope it will be a challenge to cover 100 feet in length and 25 feet in width in the time frame outlined. In a normal setting we look at 75 feet between snowmakers. One hundred feet might also be acceptable, but fan guns (PoleCat) do not have the capacity of a regular stick gun. Opening the trails in three days is possible if the snowmaking crews use ground guns almost every 30 feet. This can be done, but the system capacity might be about 200 guns at any given time. Ground guns use more compressed air than any other guns on the market and therefore are not cheap to run. In general a fan gun uses 15 gallons per minute and a tower gun uses 30 gallons a minute. The more you put into a gun the more you get out, especially in the opening phase of a mountain. The production is on the tower guns. In Belleayre's case (with two fan guns 100 feet apart) it would take 5 days (120 hours) to open the slope in question. In realty, a mountain crew will use many air gosling ground guns for the opening stage to build a base. The distance of 100-feet makes no sense for grooming, dusting and the opening phase of a slope at Belleayre. If they cannot make any snow during the nighttime, then the northern slopes will have a later opening date. Temperature is only one ingredient in snowmaking. Humidity is another factor -- wet-bulp is the real number we look at for snowmaking. The air is, for most part, dry in the winter, but in early season we see a higher humidity percentage in early day (7am) and a lower humidity in late day (7 pm). Therefore, 7 pm until 4 am is usually an ideal time frame to make snow in the East. There are more factors included in this determination, such as evaporation, drift losses and snow type. You can make any type of snow, such as dry, medium, or wet. They all have a different snow density (Lb/Ft^3). The ground also has to be frozen. All season recreational activities As far as recreational activities, the UMP is mostly a single season plan. Ski areas all over the world are embracing two or three-season opportunities to make use of existing infrastructure as the skiing season shortens (from climate change), the public gives up on skiing (from changing demographics and high cost), and higher operating costs force ski areas to plan creatively to stay in business. 12 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Comparison of Alternatives In the following paragraphs we compare the West Side/Highmount alternative with an East Side alternative that includes ski trails and a lift and the Cathedral Brook Zip Line, which would offer needed summer recreational opportunities to the public. The Zip Line would be accessible from both the Ski Center and the hamlet of Pine Hill. In addition, we will suggest a way for a short ski lift to offer ingress from Pine Hill to the mid mountain. A new Comprehensive Revised Concept Map (Map-1) shows all of these features, including contiguous land uses of the proposed Belleayre Resort and ingress from Pine Hill. Highmount Alternative The former Highmount Ski Center offers the benefit of old ski trails that would require less forest clearing. The three proposed trails, which while perhaps satisfying the desire for steeper terrain, however, lack variety. They are essentially one fall-line trail separated by bands of trees. Only the switch-backing intermediate trail on the right (as you face the mountain) offers a different layout. There are other problems with the Highmount alternative. One of the most significant ones is the requirement that the state buy the land from developer Crossroads Ventures before any ski trail expansion could take place. This in itself could be a lengthy process of appraising the land, negotiating a fair price, finding state funding sources for the land, bringing it into the Forest Preserve, classifying it for Intensive Use, clearing the acreage of old ski lift infrastructure, and working out the legal framework to share the public area with the developer’s proposed Wilderness Activity Center and retail outlets. The timeframe for all of this legal and administrative work cannot be predicted with any certainty, which could delay the public’s use of this alternative for years. As ski terrain, Highmount offers a vertical drop of 850 feet (from ski lift loading platform to unloading platform) and a horizontal length of 2525 feet along the lift line. This results in an average slope grade of 33.7%. This is what Highmount has to offer in general terms if someone skied the entire hill from top to bottom along the lift line. 13 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 According to UMP Table 3.2-13, Proposed Trail Conditions, the UMP offers two trails that parallel the lift line but by shortening the vertical drop and horizontal length gains some steepness: HMT4/HMT-5 is 794 feet vertical drop; 2228 feet horizontal length; 35.6% average grade. HMT-7/HM-7 is 767 feet vertical drop; 2142 feet horizontal length; 35.8% average grade. HMT-1/HMT-2 is 810 feet vertical drop; 2641 feet horizontal length; 30.7% average grade. This trail, because it is the 14 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 longest of the three top to bottom trails, generally represents the true average grade of the topography on Highmount. The Highmount trails have safety concerns: the run out area at the base is small for today’s safe run out standards, which need to accommodate snowboarders and their often different style of descent. Four intersections with the proposed HMT-3 trail could cause collisions. Steeper trails require more snowmaking to open and maintain and present greater grooming difficulties, perhaps requiring a winch system at the top for safety and efficiency. The more western exposure of Highmount also means that as the season progresses, it will receive more solar radiation, which would speed melting and result in more melt/freeze cycles and thus icy conditions. Highmount, because it is the farthest from BMSC’s snowmaking reservoirs, would require water to be pumped over a distance greater than it would need to be for other areas on the mountain. This would be costly. See the cost comparison table, below. The slopes of Highmount present storm water runoff problems. This would occur in two forms: melt out of the snow pack and runoff during extreme rain storms. Ski slopes that have been cleared and reshaped with bulldozing or blasting lose their water-absorbing capacity; those that are cleared and maintained as grass have residual absorbency but less so than forested land. Snow covered slopes, especially the icy packed slopes that result from snowmaking, approach hard surfaces in their capacity to direct water downhill. It is important to note that neighboring Ski Windham suffered damage to its slopes, lodge, and parking lot from runoff during Hurricane Irene, at a time when there was no snow on the slopes. At Highmount the bottom of the slopes is right above Route 49A. There is no buffering forested land before water from the ski slopes reaches a system of drainage ditch and culverts along the roadside. During melt out and rain storms, water would rush directly into a runoff system not designed to accommodate such extra runoff. This could result in road flooding, or flooding of properties on the downhill side of Route 49A. Although Highmount is not solid forest, its old slopes have had about 20 years to reforest themselves. This would have to be recut, and one trail on the left (as you look up the mountain), HM1/HM2, would have to be clear cut, as would the connector trail back to the Tomahawk snow bridge through the West Side trails (if this area is developed). East Side Alternative It is highly unusual in a public comment period during a regulatory hearing to introduce an alternative but not offer any analysis of it. For this reason, we have designed a preliminary Revised Concept East Side in an effort to allow the East Side to be considered equally to the West/Highmount alternative, which currently (HM portion) is on land that the DEC doesn’t own. The Revised Concept East Side is wholly within the BMSC footprint on Intensive Use land. The overall main advantage of the East Side is that it resides within the Ski Center’s footprint and does not require the negotiation of purchase and incorporation into and classification in the Forest Preserve. This alone is a large cost savings. 15 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 The Revised Concept consists of two main elements, a lift (Pine Ridge lift) with three ski trails on the upper mountain and a three-season Zip Line through the Cathedral Brook ravine on the lower mountain. There is also ingress to Pine Hill through existing hiking trails and a proposed Pulse gondola lift from below the existing snowmaking reservoir to mid-mountain. This plan is very modular and cost conscious, with an eye toward recycling an old lift, upgrading an already-cut ski trail (Cathedral Brook) with snowmaking, and adding a low-impact three-season mountain adventure Zip Line that is in keeping with the purpose of the Forest Preserve ski centers to offer environmentally sensitive recreational activities to the general public. In all, these features would help Belleayre to balance its operating costs with revenue while providing the public with four-season recreation. The Comprehensive Map (M-1) shows the location of the East Side. It is on the ridge that rises to the east summit of Belleayre. It begins east and uphill of the terminus of lower Cathedral Brook. The ski terrain has these general features: a vertical drop of 1100 feet (loading to unloading lift platform, horizontal length of 3652 feet (lift line), and an average slope grade of 30.1%. We have noted maximum grades of individual trails; the steep sections would be similar to the other faces of upper Bellearye Mountain—basically a few turns of advanced to expert terrain. Although in general the average grade is less steep than the terrain at Highmount, the longest ski run is 1490 feet longer. The longest Highmount trail is 2500 feet; the longest on the East Side trail is 3990. The longest in the West Area is 2380 feet. (See the comparative table above for a break down of trail statistics.) It is a question for the public and DEC to decide: which is better, a longer more moderate trail with a few steep sections or a shorter but overall steeper trail? If you are trying to cultivate and retain a learning population and give skiers a sense of a “big mountain” experience with long sustained intermediate terrain, the East Side is the way to go. Remember, 60% of skiers are low intermediate to intermediate, which is the target population for the East Side. The shorter, steeper runs (likely to be icy and mogul filled) of Highmount would appeal to a smaller group of more advanced skiers. In this equation, too, is the question, should the learners and intermediate skiers subsidize, through higher lift tickets and diversion of investment capital, terrain that appeals to fewer skiers? In our estimation, the three long trails descending the ridge on the East Side are more desirable than the terrain on the Highmount side. The proposed 1,000-foot vertical Pine Ridge lift would disperse skiing on the mountain quite well and will be a very exciting addition to Belleayre. The summit portion of Cathedral Brook trail would not be accessible directly from the East Lift. We believe that this terrain is too steep to maintain cost efficiently with snowmaking and grooming for the number of skiers able to ski it. It would be reserved as a “side-country” trail, open when there is enough natural snow, which expert skiers could hike to from Super Chief or descend along the ridge or through the woods from the Pine Ridge Lift. The connection between the East Side and the main mountain would be through the existing cutover from Cathedral Brook to Roaring Brook. As mentioned above, a recycled lift from the lower mountain could service the East Side. Trees could be cleared flush to the ground to retain their root systems. Trails could be designed to avoid blasting and bulldozing (except for laying of snowmaking pipes). These practices could mitigate runoff from snow melt and rain storms. Unlike Highmount, runoff would be absorbed over several 16 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 hundred feet of vertical forested slopes before entering the tributaries feeding Cathedral Brook. In general, the upper East Side is dry and lacking in water features. The average grade of slope and the true north orientation would make the East Side easier to make snow on, groom, and retain snow pack. Its closer proximity to the mid-mountain maintenance building would reduce the distance groomers would need to travel. The East Side is already known to many skiers as a side-country area. This quality would be preserved and extended with the ski lift, which could also facilitate advanced skiers’ forays into the new 1,200-acre Big Indian Plateau. The East Side would also make it easier to do side-country descents into Pine Hill, as skiers occasionally now make when natural snow is adequate. Snowmaking connections with the main mountain would be more efficient compared with those needed for Highmount. The East Side is closer to the mid-mountain water storage pond and the pump house. Water and air wouldn’t need to travel as far as they would for Highmount. Pipes could be run off the Roaring Brook connections. As mentioned earlier in this report, the new Discovery Lodge would increase skier traffic through the learning area. The West Side trails, if both Highmount and the West Side were built, would add to this on the western descent. The East Side, on the other hand, would give skiers a greater option in their descent. They could stop at the Overlook Lodge for lunch and breaks or ride the #7 Lift to the Summit Lodge. Or explore the Tomahawk lift area. The overall ski area flow would be better with greater flexibility for skiing and breaks at the lodges before the end of the day descent to the parking areas near Discovery Lodge. The East Side would also encourage advanced skiers to stay on the upper mountain and not descend through beginner terrain to the Discovery base area for summit lift access and services. This would help preserve the existing separation of beginners from advanced skiers on the mountain, thus reducing the possibility of collisions between these two skier groups. Zip Line The Zip Line through the Cathedral Brook ravine on the lower East Side would satisfy a needed feature that ski areas are increasingly relying on, to maintain revenue as the skiing population declines and winters warm up. This three-season adventure activity could begin operation when there is still snow on the slopes in the spring and continue throughout summer into fall. The investment is low, as is the impact. It offers a safe, guided experience for individuals, families, and small groups. At maximum capacity it could probably cycle close to 100 people a day at $70 to $110/person (perhaps less for groups). The Zip Line would allow for not only zipping but also rappelling down to the ground to explore natural features, hear interpretative talks about watershed recharge and ecology, watch for birds, study the tree canopy, and perhaps a rope challenge to return to a Zip Line platform in the canopy. The Comprehensive Map M-1 shows a general plan for a Zip Line. The start at a platform at the mid-mountain snowmaking pond would be accessible by lift from the Discovery learning area or directly by foot from the Overlook Lodge. Of note, at the end of the Zip Line, “zippers” would return over a hanging bridge to the cross-country trail system that would take them back to the Discovery Lodge. 17 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Access from Pine Hill would also occur in two ways, by foot from the rail bed and Cathedral Brook hiking trail up to the hanging bridge or by short lift up to the Discovery Lodge learning area. Hikers could also access the start completely by trail, if they so wished. A group gondola with open carriers (Cabriolet pulse lift) would allow both ascent and descent between Pine Hill and the Overlook Lodge. Recognizing that lift access from Pine Hill may not be desired (by the citizens of Pine Hill) or may be cost prohibitive, it is presented as an optional feature. The Zip Line would function fully without it. We would stress that the Zip Line is a very cost-effective operation. The capital investment is low; return on investment is typically one to two years in commercial operations. To keep the price low, this return could be stretched over three years or more, as desired. A Zip install for such a project can cost around $1,500,000 (a high number). For our analysis we used a $70 and a $110 ticket cost per person and a conservative peak number of clients/day at 72. See the following table: Canopy Tour [Zip Line] Calculation of profitability Assumption Season (in months) Season (in days) Maintenance days: closed Rainy days; closed Sunny days; open Excellent operating days at 72 visits 5% 15% 80% 25% Normal operating days at 48 visits 60% Poor operating days at 16 visits % absolute 6 175 8.75 26.25 140 2520 4032 15% 336 Estimated annual visitors = 6888 Financial Info Low Price High Price $70 $110 $482,160 $757,680 $80,290 $80,290 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 3.7 years 2.2 years A three Hour Tour Cost per person Annual Income Labor Install Cost ROI (return on investment) 18 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 East Side versus West Side expansion comparison East Side No purchase required; DEC owns; no delay to develop Safer, wider trail layout; fewer junctions, better skier flow to summit, mid-mountain lodges Storm water runoff absorbed in forest ORDA controls adjacent retail 4 trails, 32 acres, 1 lift, 3.06 trail miles, improved access to Cathedral Brook trail Steepest trail (29.4% average) with greatest vertical drop (780 feet) is 1290 feet longer than HM Clear cutting of 32 acres Summer Zip Line with hiker connection to Pine Hill hamlet West Side/Highmount Purchase & classification needed for HM to bring into Forest Preserve Safety issues; skier collisions from trail junctions, poor run outs at bottom of steep terrain, long traverse to base lodge, complicated access to summit and midmountain lodges Storm water runoff goes directly into highway system, already at capacity from existing runoff Private HM resort controls adjacent retail HM (2.88 miles) + WS (2.05 miles) = 4.93 miles; 2 lifts Steepest trail (36.6% average) has vertical drop of 509 feet but only 1390 feet long HM & WS clear cutting of 39.7 acres; recutting of 19.9 acres (total 59.6 acres) No publicly developed summer season recreation plans 46% more expensive to operate East side versus West side operating cost comparisons The bottom line is that the Core and West Side/Highmount alternatives cost 15% more to operate per season compared to the Core and East Side alternatives (preliminary cost estimates). When the West Side and East Side alone are compared, the West Side would be 46% more expensive to operate. Snowmaking installation would similarly be more expensive for the West Side, 47%, as well. Currently, the existing Belleayre “core” gets around 146,449 skier visits (average of 2,050,288 visits over the 14 seasons from 1997-98 to 2010-11, Table 1.6-1 in UMP). Our preliminary projections for skier visits based on NSAA data and resorts of similar size to Belleayre are no more than 210,000 skier visits for any scenario (See http://www.nsaa.org/press/press-releases/us-skiindustry-tallies-51-million-visits-in-201112-season/ and the included pdf file, historical_visits.pdf). On a busy day you might get 6,000 skier visits, but many of those skiers are beginners to low intermediates. You always plan for your fifth busiest day--2,500 to 3,000 skiers. With the current situation in the market we do not believe that Belleayre can top 210,000 skier visits. Beginners and low intermediates (families) are the bread and butter when it comes to higher skier visits. Also, terrain parks (Playgrounds) will attract good numbers of skiers and riders, but we see no plans to increase visits in that area. Merely adding more terrain is no longer a formula for 19 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 success anymore, unlike in previous eras. In our opinion Belleayre needs to create the right formula to increase a higher skier visit number if that is the goal. With the current situation in the skiing industry and the UMP’s offering, we do not see the market reacting according to the planners’ expectations. The following table outlines preliminary comparative cost projections for operating the Core along with either the West Side/Highmount or the East Side. Preliminary*Belleayre*Basic*Operating*Cost*Comparison* !! !! !! !! !! *Based!on!North!East!Average!NSAA!Economic!Analysis! **!Based!on!a!100!skier!days! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! Cost* Acres! WS/HM** TOTAL* ** !! ES*** TOTAL* 155! 60! 215! Labor& &$155,000&& &$93,000&& &$248,000&& && !$49,600!! !$204,600!! Power& &$135,625&& &$81,375&& &$217,000&& && !$43,400!! !$179,025!! Other& &$93,000&& &$55,800&& &$148,800&& && !$29,760!! !$122,760!! !$383,625!! !$230,175!! *$613,800** ** !$122,760!! *$506,385** !$77,500!! !$30,000!! *$107,500** ** !$16,000!! *$93,500** !$234,000!! !$93,600!! *$327,600** ** !$46,800!! *$280,800** !$38,070!! !$12,690!! *$50,760** ** !$12,690!! *$50,760** !!!!!!!!!!!$366,465! *$1,099,660** ** !!!!!!!$198,250! *$931,445** Snowmaking!Total!Operating!Cost! Grooming!Cost! Chair!Lift!Operating!Cost! Surface!lift/Carpet!Operating!Cost! TOTAL*OPERATING*COST* Core*Bellearye* !! New!Snowmaking!Install!Cost! !$250,000!! !$1,200,000!! 32! *$1,450,000** ** 187! !$640,000!! *$890,000** *West!Side/Highmount! ! ! ! ! ! ! **East!Side! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Note:!The!operating!cost!could!be!higher!since!we!used!NSAA!and!industry!norm!members.!!We!used!averages!and!did!not!look!at! special!grooming!needs!such!as!terrain!park,!ramp,!etc.!!80%!to!90%!of!snowmaking!at!ski!areas!outside!of!the!USA!is!automated!–!these! operators!make!snow!for!a!fraction!of!our!cost.!For!chairlift!cost!we!used!a!.10!cent!a!Kwh!and!used!a!9!hours!operating!time,!opening! and!closing!procedures!included.!New!snowmaking!cost!is!without!water!pond!and!pumps.!The!Core!&!ES!might!not!need!another!pond.!! Instead!they!need!newer!pipes!and!higher!capacity!pumps.!Resorts!utilizing!more!than!70%!of!the!water!plant!capacity!are!doing!a!great! job!of!maximizing!existing!assets.!The!Core!&!WS/HM!operating!cost!is!around!15%!higher!then!the!Core!&!ES!costs.!Repair,! maintenance,!and!inspection!costs!are!not!included,!but!consider!that!the!more!chairlifts!there!are,!the!higher!these!costs!are.!The!West! Side!versus!East!Side!alone!shows!the!West!Side!would!be!46%!more!expensive!to!operate.! 20 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 Conclusions and recommendations In considering the overall desire to renovate Belleayre to preserve the state’s investment in infrastructure and to meet future demands for operating a public ski area in southeastern New York, we would make the following recommendations: 1) Complete a demographic survey of Bellearye skiers to determine their needs. Augment this survey with skier visit trends at Belleayre, and in New York and the northeast (NSAA Kotte data sets). 2) Formulate renovation and expansion plans on these up-to-date figures (Note: the UMP stops what analysis it offers with 2007/08 data, which no longer presents an accurate picture of the ski industry.) as well as current forecasts for the effects of climate change on the southeastern New York ski industry. 3) Start renovations and expansion from the existing infrastructure outward, maintaining the integrity of the original skier flow patterns on the mountain that respect and appreciate the importance of beginner/novice skiers in the public mission of Belleayre as well as to the effort to cultivate new skiers. In this effort, a program that appeals to families and beginners could grow the skier numbers at Belleayre and within the northeast generally. 4) Give the East Side alternative as much formal analysis as the West and Highmount plans. 5) Don’t create circulation and safety problems when adding lifts and trails. It is entirely possible to expand terrain on the East Side, if needed, without causing such problems. 6) Develop new terrain only if there is strong current demand data to support the investment. “Build it and they will come” is not sound financial management. 7) Don’t undertake renovations and expansions without a strict cost/benefit analysis and an insistence on the most sustainable plan from an energy conservation perspective. Remember, Belleayre relies on public money for improvement. Taxpayer dollars should not be needlessly spent when the horizon for viable skiing in southeastern New York is finite, perhaps 20 to 30 years, owing to climate change. 8) Above all, create a master plan in harmony with the constitutional intent for using land that NY state set aside a long time ago for the public to enjoy. We recommend that the UMP be sensitive and user friendly, which today are the keys to sustaining a business, and take into consideration the aesthetics of the current layout of Belleayre. 21 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 CREDENTIALS Alpentech, Inc, Salt Lake City, Utah and Mürren, Switzerland Alpentech Inc. is an innovative planning and engineering firm specializing in mountain recreation and resort planning, civil /environmental engineering, landscape integration, natural resource evaluation and modeling. Specialization of the firm led to international assignments in Argentina, Canada, China, France, Korea, New Zealand, Spain and Switzerland with the bulk of projects in the U.S. National and State awards for design excellence have been received. Third party economic feasibility reports and advisory roles to government agencies are performed by Alpentech, Alpentech developed unique modeling techniques most useful for mountain resort layout and planning. Already in 1982 combined terrain and wind modeling was provided to the French government and led to our trademarked SmartmapsTM. For example, Smartmaps have been produced for the Alaska Department of Natural Resources to assess both feasibility and environmental impact. Smartmaps were applied to 23 sites in Korea for selection of the best site for development. The reliable technique helped to re-arrange Las Leñas in Argentina so that it will have economic viability in the future. More recently, assignments in Asia were relying on quick initial suitability assessments. Alpentech also applies state of art tools during field work. Laser/ GPS tools get jobs done more efficiently. Where permitted drones have been used for field mapping. Our experience and specialization, commitment of senior staff to all field and office work resulted in International recognition of Alpentech. Products and services are summarized on our web site www.alpentech.net, Alpentech has been incorporate in 1978 by Beat von Allmen, the current principal of the firm. Beat von Allmen, 2012 Intermountain Hall of Fame, Induction Text Beat von Allmen (1941) Blending the demands of recreation with the delicacies of nature is a monumental task. To the delight of skiers worldwide, Swiss-born ski racer-turned-ski coach-turned civil/mechanical/environmental engineer, Beat von Allmen is equal to the task. His uncanny mountain resort design talents are enshrined at ski areas throughout the world, including numerous venues in the Intermountain West. As a member of the Swiss National Ski Team 1963-67, including its Olympic team in 1964, Beat strived for perfection. This trait transcended his ski coaching career with the Snowbird Race Team, started in 1971, and later his ski area design consulting firm Alpentech in Salt Lake City. His penchant for designing balance among often-divergent forces has brought him international acclaim and won him the Ski Area Design Award from the National Ski Areas Association for his work with Utah’s Solitude Ski Area and left his mark on many trail designs in Utah ski areas. In 1988, Beat was elected chairman of the Recreation Planning Committee of the American Society of Civil Engineers Planning and Development Division. He has delivered papers from 22 Belleayre Draft Unit Management Plan Review by Alpentech Submitted to New York State DEC and ORDA for consideration, July, 17, 2013 slippery ski garment, ski slope crowding, terrain suitability to transportation system selection and life-cycle costing and sustainability. He continues to create touring maps, for the Wasatch and contribute to committees seeking appropriate mountain transportation systems serving the local population and resorts, such as found in the Swiss Alps. In the annals of planning, designing, expanding or connecting safe mountain recreation in sensitive natural areas, Beat von Allen epitomizes the balance between development and nature. Iwan Fuchs Ski Industry Consultant GENERAL Iwan has pursued career objectives that complement Alpentech. His personal and professional experience is anchored in the mountain recreation industry where he has proven management and leadership skills. His unusual involvement with strategic planning and operation of summer activities complements his international coaching and teaching snow sports. With this specific practical experience and motivation he has demonstrated that successful project management and customer relations on education and hands-on experience. To guide a resort to growth is an achievement, possible with wise financial management based on cost-benefit, result-oriented and creative energy. These are the skills that characterize Iwan’s talent and achievements. Iwan is fluent in German, English and Italian. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Seven Springs Mountain Resort – Director of Mountain Operations/ Snowsports School, 09-2007 ongoing Senior level planning and project implementation (SPA/ hotel, restaurant, ski lodge, rental shop, zip line , tubing and sporting clays); oversee and manage 8 departments (Snowsports School, Ski Patrol, Lift Operation and Maintenance, Snowmaking, Grooming, Terrain Park and Water Recovery); project management customer relationship, team building, budgeting and leadership in resort diversification. Ski Academy of Switzerland, Saas Fee – Senior Coach, 2008 ongoing Hidden Valley Four Seasons Resort – Assistant Mountain Manger, Ski School Director, 2003-05 Intradetect LLC, Zurich, Switzerland / Wexford, PA – CEO Network Security Consulting Firm, 200305 Fuchs Sandstrahlwerk GmbH, Villmergen, Switzerland – V.P. Operations, 2006-07, 1991-94, EDUCATION International MBA, Point Park University, Pittsburg, PA; 4-2002 Swiss Army Motor Park apprenticeship, Otmarsingen, Switzerland 8-19911 to 8-1994 Swiss Mechanic Diploma, Wohlen, Switzerland, 3-1993 to 8-1994 MEMBERSHIP AND CERTIFICATION Swiss Snowsports Instructor Certificate (ski, board and telemark) Ski Inudstry: PSIA & AASI, PSAA memberships ACCT membership American Heart Association CPR & AED certified 23 KOTTKE NATIONAL END OF SEASON SURVEY 2011/12 FINAL REPORT Table 6 Estimated U.S. Skier Visits by Region, 1978/79 – 2011/12 (in millions) (Extrapolated Data*) SEASON Northeast Southeast Midwest Rocky Mtn. Pacific Southwest Pacific Northwest Pacific West (total) Total Index (1978/79 = 100) 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2001/02 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 1988/89 1987/88 1986/87 1985/86 1984/85 1983/84 1982/83 1981/82 1980/81 1979/80 1978/79 11.021 13.887 13.411 13.730 14.261 11.801 12.505 13.661 12.892 13.991 12.188 13.697 12.025 12.299 12.712 12.407 13.825 11.265 13.718 13.217 12.252 11.157 13.299 12.741 14.421 14.745 12.836 11.083 12.087 9.523 11.467 8.953 8.655 11.294 4.405 5.789 6.016 5.664 5.204 4.888 5.839 5.504 5.588 5.833 4.994 5.458 5.191 4.261 4.343 4.231 5.693 4.746 5.808 4.660 4.425 4.257 4.447 5.424 5.885 5.816 5.218 4.394 5.175 4.256 5.064 4.172 4.230 3.763 6.382 7.811 7.718 7.247 8.099 7.200 7.787 7.533 7.773 8.129 6.980 7.580 6.422 6.005 6.707 7.137 7.284 6.907 7.364 6.978 6.535 6.486 6.915 7.013 6.783 6.944 7.201 6.899 6.961 6.213 7.846 7.688 8.682 9.743 19.130 20.900 20.378 19.974 21.324 20.849 20.717 19.606 18.868 18.728 18.123 19.324 18.109 18.440 19.191 18.904 18.148 18.412 17.503 18.602 17.687 16.706 16.048 16.601 16.564 16.680 16.869 17.626 16.801 14.808 15.337 10.486 17.160 15.837 6.066 8.111 8.411 7.091 7.617 6.536 7.916 8.888 8.033 7.885 7.947 7.836 6.651 7.485 7.918 6.359 6.012 Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. 3.962 4.042 3.853 3.647 3.998 3.794 4.133 1.690 3.912 3.027 4.179 3.442 3.800 3.599 3.251 3.482 3.022 Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. Not avail. 10.028 12.153 12.264 10.738 11.615 10.330 12.049 10.579 11.946 10.913 12.126 11.278 10.451 11.084 11.169 9.841 9.034 11.346 10.244 10.575 9.936 8.115 9.311 11.556 10.255 9.564 9.797 11.352 9.606 12.061 11.004 8.401 9.473 9.560 50.966 60.540 59.787 57.354 60.502 55.068 58.897 56.882 57.067 57.594 54.411 57.337 52.198 52.089 54.122 52.520 53.983 52.677 54.637 54.032 50.835 46.722 50.020 53.335 53.908 53.749 51.921 51.354 50.630 46.861 50.718 39.700 48.200 50.197 102 121 119 114 121 110 117 113 114 115 108 114 104 104 108 105 108 105 109 108 101 93 100 106 107 107 103 102 101 93 101 79 96 100 Northeast: CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, VT, RI Southeast: AL, GA, KY, MD, NC, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV Midwest: IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, NE, OH, SD, WI Rocky Mountain: CO, ID, MT, NM, UT, WY Pacific Southwest: AZ, CA, NV Pacific Northwest: AK, OR, WA Note: Pacific West visits are segmented by subregion (Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest) from 1995/96 – 2011/12. Pacific West visits are reported in aggregate total for 1978/79 – 1994/95 (subregional breakouts unavailable). * Users of the regional data in this table are cautioned that prior to 1982 no estimate of industry-wide skier visits was made for the “End of Season” studies. Therefore, for 1978/79 to 1980/81 the estimates were derived by applying the NSAA Members’ Skier Visit Index. Since 1982, the estimates have been obtained by applying a statistical extrapolation procedure using regional mathematical equations derived from the NSAA survey respondent data. The procedure is reported in “An Estimate of the U.S. Ski Industry Business Volume and Lift Capacity for 1981/82,” unpublished NSAA report (November 1982), by Marvin Kottke. RRC ASSOCIATES 16