or Worse - Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

or Worse - Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

Death Rates Vary
Among Cars by More
Than 800 Percent
Many Cars Perform
Better (or Worse)
Than Predicted
Occupant deaths occur far mOTe often
in some cars than in others. Insurance
Institute for Highway Safety researchers
computed death rates for 1984-88 model
cars during calendar years 1985-89 and
found that, among 134 series, the one with
the lowest death rate was Volvo's 240
station wagon with 0.5 deaths lor
each 10,000 of these cars registered. The highest rate?
Chevrolet's Corvette Coupe, a
small sports car (4.7 per
10,000). The Corvette's death
rate was more than 9Urnes as high
as the Volvo's (see table, pages 4-5).
For each car series, rates were compUled lrom the total number of occupant
deaths and registrations in the 5 calendar
years, 1985-89. (A car series is a family
Actual death rates for individual car
series tell only part of the story (see
Death Rates Vary Among Cars by More
Than 800 Percent) because they're influenced by the age and sex of the people
who drive them, as well as by the size of
the cars. So Insurance Institute for Highway Safety researchers computed lor
each of 134 popular car series a
predicted as well as an actual
death rate, with the predicted
rate taking into account three
important lactors influencing
the actual death rate. The researchers developed a regression
model that relates actual death rates to
car size, driver age, and driver sex. Because vehicle registration information
cannot be broken down by owner age or
sex, the researchers' model uses inlonnation about the drivers who were involved
in the fatal crashes.
Specifically, the researchers estimated
a nonlinear relationship between the
death rates of individual vehicle series
and their wheelbases, the proportion of
occupant deaths thai occurred with
drivers under 30 years old, and the proportion of male drivers. (A detailed explanation 01 the research methods is available lrom the Institute on request.)
From this model, the researchers computed a predicted death rate for each car
series using ils actual wheelbase, proportion of young drivers, and proportion of
(See Better or ROne, p. 3)
within a make with the same wheelbase
and a degree of commonality in construction such as body, chassis, etc.) Results for
1984-88 series are presented only lor those
with at least 150,000 registrations during
1985-89 (1989 model cars aren't included
because registrations are counted midyear
when new cars are still being sold). Results for all cars and for each car
size{body style group were computed from
death and registration counts lor all car
series, regardless of numbers registered.
Car size is an important influencing lactor on death rates. 01 the 14 vehicle series
with the lowest death rates,S are large,
and 7are midsize. Only 2are small. Nine of
(See 800% Voriation, p. 2)
-_ _
._
_
_.
Thi••peelai
marn the .econ
.titute for Hi,
ti.hed pallen,e
per 10,000 regUl
car mde and
on-lhe-road deat
And, in thi. repa
.erie. are inclu
the rate. were re
.tead of]03. The
include. more
hence lell expol
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f Statu. Report
he In.urance Inafety hal pubcupant death.
.. by indl.ldual
ele are actual,
not test re.ult..
,olleager car
n the nflt time
- ]34 terles in·
n page. 4 and 5
th lower .ale.,
_
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2-IIHS Slaws Report, Vol. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991
800% Variation
(Cont'd from p. I)
the 13 cars with the highest death rates are
small. The other 4are midsize. None is large.
Large station wagons, large two-door cars,
and large luxury cars are the groups with the
fewest deaths per 10,000 registered cars. The
group with the highest number of deaths per
10,000 registrations is midsize slXlrts cars.
Death rates vary nol only by car size but
also within size and body style groups.
Among small four.(Joor cars, lor example, the
Saab 900 had the lowest rale (0.6). The rale
for the fouHloor Chevrolet Sprint, was more
lhan I times as high (4.5).
The mix of occupant deaths between sin·
gle- and multiple-vehicle crashes varied considerably, 100, with small cars usually having
higher proportions of deaths in single-vehicle
crashes than large cars. Chevrolet's Corvette
Coupe had the highest proportion 01 singlevehicle crash deaths (83 percent) among all
134 cars. Buick's Century two-door and Electra station wagon had the lowest (13 percent).
Another important influence on death
rales, besides car size, is driver age. Cars
with high percentages of fatakrash-involved
drivers who are under 30 years old tended to
have higher death rates. The sex of the driver
is important, too. Cars with high percentages
of female drivers tended to have lower rates
(see table, pages 6-7).
These three factors - car size, driver
age and sex - explain some differences in
death rates among cars. But they don't explain them all. Volkswagen's Cabriolet/Rabbit convertible, lor example, had a relatively
low death rate (1.3), even though it's small
and had a relatively high percentage 01
drivers under 30 (71 percent).
Still another influencing factor involves
the presence or absence of automatic restraints. Most 01 the 134 car series were not
equipped with automatic restraints during
1984-88, but all 1990 and later models 01 the
same cars (not passenger vans) do have
such restraints. Death rates lor the newer
models equipped with air bags can be expected to be lower than the rates shown lor
corresponding 1984.s8 models.
The cars included in the study range
from one to live years old and, within that
age range, the older cars had only slightly
lower death rates than the newer cars.
To account lor the effects of car size and
driver age and sex, Institute researchers
computed a predicted death rate lor each
car series. Then they compared predicted
and actual rales (see Many Cars Perlorm
Bellet (or Worse) Than Predicted, page I).
lIHS Status Report, Vol. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991-3
_ 1 1•.)90
95
100
Better or Worse
(Ca.t'd from p. I)
male drivers. What's especially
interesting are the differences
that the Institute's researchers
found between individual car series' predicted and actual death
rales. This comparison tells us
how much better or worse each
of the car series performed than
we would have expected, given
the car's size and the age and
the sex of the drivers who were
in its fatal crashes.
Among the 134 vehicle series
lor which Institute researchers
computed actual and predicted
occupant death rates, 81 series
(I9~ models) performed betler than predicted during calendar years 1985-89. Forty-lour car
series performed worse than
predicted, and 9 had actual oc-
cupant death rates that match
their predicted rates.
lblvo's 241) station wagon (above) had the lowest occupant death
rate among all 1984-88 model cars studied. Chevrolet's Coruette
Coupe had the highest occupant death rate.
Some of the 134 car series
performed much better than predicted after taking into account
vehicle size and the age and sex
of the drivers: Saab 900 !ourdoor, Nissan Pulsar, Volvo 240
station wagon, Volkswagen
Vanagon, Volvo 740/760 lour·
door, Volkswagen Cabriolet/Rabbit convertible, Honda Accord
two-door, and Volkswagen Jetta
lour-door.
The following 13 cars per·
lormed much worse than predicted: Chevrolet Sprint four-door,
Dodge Aries lour-door, Oldsmobile Delta 88lour-door, Chevrolet
Celebrity two-door, Chevrolet
Sprint two-door, Plymouth Re·
liant two-door, Buick LeSabre
lour-door, Dodge Aries two-door,
Plymouth Reliant lour·door,
Dodge Aries station wagon,
Chevrolet Caprice/Impala lourdoor, Plymouth Horizon lourdoor, and Chevrolet Monte Carlo.
4-IJJ/S SlaIUS Repon, Ibl 26. No. 4, ApriI/3. 1991
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Unless ot~ .. noteel, resulls shown in the table are !of cars that _e equlPl*l wrth manual
IapIshouIl* safety bitlis. Results tor cars equlPPBd wrlh air bags ani ldMitiecI wrlh two asterISks ("").
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can be expec;tld 10 be lower It*l the resulls shoWn In tt-s table.
MIDSIZE
6-I1HS _
Repotl, Ib/. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991
Additional Information About Cars Listed on Pages 4and 5
LARGE
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'NtllIllIlaM -1engIt1 01....,.. II'l or'Id'IM
RegIS1l"lion Counts -1I.m 01 vetdIs r8gIIilefed (l,nng cMlndar years 1985-89
P..cenl
'l'tlunlJ-1*cenI 01 dA1tIs WI cars WIlh dnveis under age 30
PermnI M-. - pen:enI 01 ~ II'l Cln WIlh male dnveis
Pen:.nI
~~ -
Plltl*lI of cINths II'l $rogle.~<nshes
NOTES
\01. 26, No. 4, AprtII3, 1991
Special Issue
This special issue 01 Stalus Report focuses
on death rales by car make and series. Other special issues have focused on the following subjects:
Low-Speed Crash Tests
26:2, 1991
Fuel Economy, Safety
25:8, 1990
AntHock Brakes for Trucks 25:5, 1990
Speeds on Rural Interstates 251, 1990
Death Rates by Car Series 24:11, 1989
Desiilling Saler 'khicles
24:8, 1!IlI9
Tnd:CrashCongestion 23:12,1988
Making Traffic Laws \\bri 23:6, 1988
Seal Belt .00 Hclmet La",
2201 3, 1987
NHl'SA Salety Rules
221, 1987
Vehicle Size and Death Rates
22:2, 1987
U,S,S.letyActs
2"11,1986
Seat Bell Use laws
20:12.1985
&hool Bus Safety
20,5,1985
Seal Bell Use laws
19:14.1984
Teenagers' Driving
1~1O, 1984
s
,
~~REPORT
rOl. --
.,.,..".
wm
1005 North GItbe Ro.d
Arlinglon, VA22201
(703) 247·1500
Editor JAmes H. Mooney
A5socWt: Editor. ReJ KelT HowJrth
EditoNl Assistant: Cir\ele tqhe$
ProductIon: SbeI1a iacbon, IIiahIlIlIU
The ln$urJlICC k1stltute lor IfiIIrwJy 5Ilety is; _Indepm.
dent, IlOIIflI1l6l, sdcDtifk: IIIld tducltiorW orpniution.1l is
dedkaled to m:lucing the louts - dnths, injurle5. and
property damage -...-Iting from nashts on tht 1IIlion'.
hlgllways. Tht instItute Is supported by lhe AmerIcan In.
stll'llICe Highway Safely Association, the Amerlcan Jnsurtrs
Hlghway Safety AlHaocc. the National Associalion of Inde-
pendent Insurm Safely Anociallon, and 5C\Itfalindividuai
Insurance COlDpWei.
......
Contl!llts l1li}'
~OOI&-988.'(
be ttpUb/lIh«I whole, or in part. with altri-