6-1-16 Joe ABAL Presentation

JUNE 8, 2016
THE AUTO OPPORTUNITY:
NORTH AMERICAN
MARKET TRENDS
7th International Aluminum Congress and ExpoAlumínio 2016
Joe Quinn
Vice President of Public Affairs
The Aluminum Association
WHO WE ARE
The Aluminum Association
• 80-Year Old Trade Association
• Represent $75B + U.S. Aluminum Industry
• Promote Aluminum as Most Sustainable Material in
Today’s Market
• 113 Member Companies
• U.S. and Foreign Primary Producers, Recyclers,
Fabricators and Suppliers
ECONOMIC IMPACT
3
50 YEARS OF GROWTH
600
DOORS &
BODY-IN- WHITE
BLOCKS
500
lbs.
Pounds Per Vehicle (PPV)
500
400
HOODS
WHEELS
300
BUMPERS
394
lbs.
HEADS
200
Sheet
Extrusions
HEAT EXCHANGERS
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: 2015, Ducker Worldwide
4
DUCKER SURVEY
2015: Highest growth year
• First high-volume automotive body and structure (F-150)
• Sheet and extrusions – body, closures
By 2020, every OEM will have more than one aluminumintensive body and multiple aluminum-intensive closure
programs
Source: 2015, Ducker Worldwide
5
ALUMINUM-INTENSIVE
VEHICLES TODAY
Body-in-White & Closures
© Ford
© Audi
A8
F-150
© Jaguar
F-Pace
© Jaguar
© Tesla
XF
© Land Rover
Model S
Range Rover
6
MULTI-MATERIAL
VEHICLES
The New Normal
© Cadillac
© BMW
© Chrysler
© BMW
Pacifica
CT6
© Mercedes-Benz
© BMW
S-Class
7-Series
© Chevrolet
i3
Malibu
7
THE FORD F-150
EXPERIENCE
• Weight Reduction: 700 pounds,
12% decrease in curb weight
• Fuel Economy: Already meeting
2024 EPA standards; best fuel
economy for full-size, gas pickup
• Safety: 5-star safety rating;
improvement in every category
over 2014 steel model
Sources: Ford Motor
Company; EPA; NHTSA;
Motley Fool; Detroit Free
Press
8
MEETING THE DEMAND
$2.7 billion in capital announced or invested in U.S.
since Fall 2013
• Oct. 2015 – Tri-Arrows/Logan – $240M Expansion in
Russellville, KY
• Oct. 2014 – Constellium – $750M Expansion in Muscle
Shoals, AL
• Sept. 2014 – Aleris – $350M Expansion in Lewisport, KY
• Jul. 2014 – Constellium/Tri-Arrows – $150M New JV Plant
in Bowling Green, KY
• 2013 –> 2015 – Alcoa – $890M in Expansions in Davenport,
IA; Alcoa, TN & La Porte, IN (incl. aerospace)
• 2013 –> 2016 – Novelis $300M in Expansions in Oswego,
NY
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MEETING CUSTOMER
NEEDS
Continuous Improvement
o High Strength
o Energy Absorption
o Advanced Formability
o Manufacturing
o Sustainability
Source: Alcoa, Inc.
10
CONTINUING TO
INNOVATE
Commercially Pure Aluminum
•1xxx Series
Heat-Treatable Alloys
•2xxx Series
•6xxx Series
•7xxx Series
Non Heat-Treatable Alloys
•3xxx Series
•4xxx Series
•5xxx Series
Source: The Aluminum
Association
11
ONGOING
ADVANCEMENTS
High Strength
•
•
Kaiser, SAPA 6xxx, 7xxx Series
High-Strength (280Mpa)
Constellium Crash
Management Systems
•
Alcoa VersaCast ™
•
Novelis Advanz™ 7000-series,
6xHS, 7xHS, s615
•
Novelis Advanz™ 7000-series,
6xHS, 7xHS, s615
Energy Absorption
Advanced Formability
•
Alcoa C12Z
•
Constellium Surfalex® HF
•
Novelis Advanz™ c300
•
Novelis Advanz™ e200
•
Alcoa EZCast ™
Sources: Alcoa Inc., Kaiser, SAPA, Constellium, Novelis
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ONGOING
ADVANCEMENTS
Manufacturing
Sustainability
• Production Proven Joining
Solutions
• 26% reduction in energy use for
primary since 1991
• Novelis Fusion™, s200
• 45% reduction in carbon footprint
for primary since 1991
• Alcoa Micromill™
• Closed-loop recycling
• 75% of N.A. aluminum produced in
Canada via hydroelectric power
Sources: Aluminum Association, Alcoa Inc., Kaiser, SAPA, Constellium, Novelis
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HIGH VOLUME
JOINING SOLUTIONS
Chapters
• Introduction to Joining
• Fusion welding
• Arc welding
• Beam welding
• Resistance welding
• Brazing
• Solid state welding
• Mechanical joining
• Adhesive joining
• Hybrid joining techniques
• Joining of dissimilar materials
www.drivealuminum.org
Source: Aluminum Transportation Group
14
FUEL ECONOMY
MIDCOURSE REVIEW
•
•
•
•
•
2011: Federal government agreement with 13 major U.S. automakers to
increase fleetwide vehicle fuel economy to 54.5 mpg by 2025
Part of agreement was midterm evaluation of rule in 2017
Process begins in 2016
Regulators could reduce, maintain or increase agreed-to standard
Standard essential to continued penetration of auto aluminum
Source: EPA
15
ALUMINUM TOP PICK
TO MEET STANDARDS
2015 Dupont/WardsAuto Survey
• 900 automotive company
engineers
• Aluminum favored among
designers and engineers to
help meet 2025 fuel economy
and emissions targets
Source: 2015, Dupont/Wards
Auto
16
ENVIRONMENTAL
STEWARDSHIP
Continuous Improvement
• 37% CO2 reduction for N.A. primary
production since 1995
• 75% of capacity produced using
renewable hydroelectric power (up
from 63% in 1995)
• Automotive aluminum recycling rate in
N. A. exceeds 91%
Source: The Aluminum Association; 2016,
Center for Resource Recovery and Recycling
17
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUPERIORITY
US DOE Oak Ridge National Lab Study
• Aluminum-intensive vehicles offer lowest
life cycle energy (¯ 20%) and CO2 impact
(¯ 17%) vs. modern steel vehicles
• Use phase contributes over 90% of life
cycle impacts
• Steel vehicle’s higher use phase energy
and CO2 cancels out production phase
Source: 2014, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory
18
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUPERIORITY
Ford/MAGNA Multimaterial Lightweight Vehicle
Aluminum Intensive vs. AHSS Intensive Model
• 23.5% mass reduction
• 16% life cycle CO2 emission reduction
• 16% life cycle total energy savings
• Over 79% of life cycle net environmental
reductions related to vehicle use stage
• Project received DOE Vehicle Technologies
Office’s Distinguished Achievement Award
LIGHTWEIGHT CONCEPT
Source: 2015, SAE International
19
HEAVY TRUCKS
Lightweighting with Aluminum
• Increases fuel efficiency
• Increases freight efficiency Reduces
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Enables other fuel saving technologies
that add weight
The Aluminum Association
• Promotes heavy truck aluminum
lightweighting in the marketplace
• Advocates for aluminum’s benefits in the
heavy truck market to regulators
20
MARKETPLACE OPTIONS
Aluminum Lightweighting Leads the Way
Cab Roof
Save 60 lbs.
Save 20 lbs.
per door
Cab Floor
Save 56 lbs.
Frame Rails
Save 435 lbs.
Cab Rear Wall
Save 49 lbs.
RR Door Surround
Save 150 lbs.
Rear Door
Save 187 lbs.
Side Wall
Save 1,000 lbs.
Landing Gear
Save 50 lbs.
Slider Box
Save 150 lbs.
Cab X-Member
Save 38 lbs.
Save 30 lbs. per
wheel
Source: 2010, Ricardo
21
TELLING THE STORY
Source: The Aluminum Association
22
JOIN THE
CONVERSATION
www.aluminum.org
www.drivealuminum.org
@AluminumNews
@DriveAluminum
23