turkey - Akenerji

AKENERJİ
ELEKTRİK ÜRETİM A.Ş.
2011
www.akenerji.com.tr
COMPANY OVERVIEW
¾ Private Energy Company
659 MW active power capacity (Natural gas, Hydro and wind) 87 MW currently under construction (3 HPPs)
900 MW at development stage (Natural gas) 160 MW at development stage (1 Large sized HPP)
¾ Role in Market
One of the largest (capacity) and most experienced player in the market.
Single‐handedly produces 1% of energy generated in Turkey and
is one of the market leaders with its production of private generation companies.
IPO‐ed in June 2000.
¾ Ranking in the Major 500 Ranked within the first 120 at “500 Major Industrial Enterprises of Turkey Research” by Istanbul Chamber of Industry in last 8 years ¾ Ownership Structure
Akkök
CEZ
Public Shares
37,5 %
37,5 %
25,0 %
2
SHAREHOLDER OVERVIEW
AKKÖK GROUP
CEZ GROUP
¾One of the biggest industrial groups in Turkey.
¾CEZ is the largest Czech corporation, and the largest corporation among 10 new EU member states.
¾Active in several sectors with main focus on Chemicals,Energy,Real Estate,Port Operations,IT and Insurance
¾63% of the company is owned by Czech Ministry of Finance.
¾The group with around 4000 employees, achieved combined revenues amounting to $ 2.7 billion in 2010.
¾Vertically integrated in the Czech Republic – from mining through generation to distribution and supply. ¾Sectorel Breakdown of Group’s Turnover in 2010:
¾Expertise in distribution and supply in Bulgaria and Romania.
¾Chemicals : 40%
¾Textile:
3%
Energy :52%
Others : 5%
¾Generation know‐how in lignite, coal and nuclear energy.
www.cez.cz
www.akkok.com.tr
AKKÖK Companies Quoted at the Istanbul Stock Exchange
World’s largest acrylic fiber producer.
AKSA
www.aksa.com
¾
¾ AKENERJİ
Market leader of private power generation companies in Turkey.
www.akenerji.com.tr
¾ AK‐AL
A leader in manufacture of textiles (Fabric & Yarn) with years of experience.
www.ak‐al.com
¾ AKMERKEZ
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT COMPANY : WORLD BRAND AS A SHOPPING CENTER
www.akmerkez.com.tr
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POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK ‐ GLOBAL TRENDS
Requirements of Increased Demand
Favoring Renewable Investments
World’s Electricity Production by Fuel (Trillion kWh)
35.000
¾It’s expected that, power and utilities organizations
will need to double their base load generation from
(both traditional and renewable sources) to address the
growing energy demands of our global economy over the
next 30 years. They also will need to invest in new
technologies for carbon capture, smart metering and
demand side management, even absent the
development of global standarts. The electric power
industry will need to work with state and national
regulatory authorities to reconfigure transmission and
distribution systems to successfully integrate new
sources of energy .
30.000
25.000
Coal
20.000
Natural Gas
15.000
Renewables
10.000
Nuclear
5.000
Liquids
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
¾Today, with the growth of the economies, demand for energy is
increasing. As a result, further investments and diversification of the
energy sources seems immanent. With the developed energy markets,
unefficient/expensive power plants will be eliminated and
efficient/cheap ones will survive and present lower priced electricity
to the end‐user.
4
Source: EIA, Deloitte
POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK ‐ TURKEY
Turkey's Installed Capacity by Generation Companies (MW)
%19
¾Today, majority of the electricity produced in Turkey is generated
through state‐owned/operated power plants.
%31
%50
¾Import and Export of electricity is depends on Governmental
permits. Due to technical infrastructure, capacity for trade is very
limited.
Power Consumption Breakdown in Turkey (2009)
Fuel Sources
¾Currently the majority (90%) of natural gas is being imported by the
government, there is no alternative and no price competition for natural
gas in the market. The above chart illustrates, that the electricity price is
mainly sensitive to the NG price trend.
Source: TEİAŞ, TEDAŞ
5
ELECTRICITY GROWTH DYNAMICS ‐ GLOBAL ¾It has been historically observed globally that the electricity
market tends to grow +4% on average above the country growth
rate. The difference in electricity demand and growth rates
tends to be higher in developing countries, like Turkey.
¾Turkey represents a significant potential in terms of
consumption per capita while compered to the other countries
with its increasing young population and economic growth
potential.
6
Source: EUROSTAT
ELECTRICITY GROWTH TREND ‐ TURKEY
High Demand Scenario
LowDemand Scenario
¾Electricity consumption is mainly effected by GDP, population
growth, urbanization, climate change and efficiency applications.
¾In the last 20 years, net electricity consumption increased
remarkably with 7 % CAGR.
¾TEIAS forecasts average annual consumption growth of 7 % per
year for 2010 to 2019. The consumption growth may be shifted due
to the global crises but the imbalance remains a problem. The
global crises provides an opportunity for Turkey to improve the
investment environment and create a healty, competitive market.
Electricity Consumption Trend
¾Electricity consumption proved to be resilient to the downturns in the
economy. Increase in electricity demand has mostly been much higher than
the increase in national income in growth years, while staying at the
positive territory during recession years.
¾This has also been the case in financial crises situations. In 2001, Turkey’s
GDP percentage growth rate change has been ‐5,7%, whereas the electricity
demand growth rate has been ‐1,2%. In 2009, Turkey’s GDP percentage
growth rate change has been ‐4,7%, whereas the net electricity demand
growth rate has been ‐3,1%.
7
Source: TEİAŞ, State Planning Organization,TUİK
DEMAND TREND
EFFECT OF THE CRISIS
¾Although electricity demand has decreased by 2,0% in 2009, we
are monitoring a recovery in the demand starting from 4Q2009.
2010 demand was resulted with 7,9% increase. In 2011, TEIAS is
expecting 220 TWh consumption which represents 5% increase
compared to 2010.
8
Source: TEİAŞ
MARKET LIBERALIZATION SCHEDULE
NG Market
Liberalization
Power Market
Liberalization
Turkish Energy Market deregulation is developed after the UK Model and has been proceeding as per below schedule.
Privatization & Liberalization should be expected to start to help create a transparent & competitive market environment.
Tender for BOTAS contracts 1
*
The privatization tenders for NG will continue until the market share of BOTAŞ will be reduced to 20%.
Eligibility Limit
>7.7
miokWh/yr
>6.0
miokWh/yr
>3.0
>1.2
miokWh/yr miokWh/yr
>0.48
miokWh/yr
>0.1
miokWh/yr
>0.03
miokWh/yr
Further Reduction of Eligible
Customer Limits and Fully Open
Market
Introduction of automatic
pricing mechanism for
NG and electricity
Privatizations
Distribution Region
Sales
Introduction of DUY mechanism
2
*
Shifted to hourly system
Generation Asset Sales
~ 16.000 MW
Plants brought to market in stages
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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UPCOMING GENCO PRIVATIZATIONS ¾
The aim of the upcoming GenCo privatizations is to increase the efficiency in the market and provide cheap electricity to the end‐user.
¾
%37 of Turkey’s capacity will be offered to the private sector.
¾
The Government is planning to privatize 97 of its power plants with a total capacity of 16.358 MW starting from 2011.
¾
18 Thermal, 28 Hydro power plants and 52 small sized hydros will be privatized.
¾
Capacity range (Excluding small hydros):
Min: 26 MW
Max: 1.440 MW
¾
It can be an entry ticket for a growing market for foreign players and domestic players who want to diversify their fuel mix.
10
MARKET MECHANISM & TARIFF STRUCTURE
TRY/MWh
¾
The official electricity tariff (for residential/commercial/industrial
use) is set by the government every 3 months as per APM*.
¾
NG tariffs are determined by the government, and adjusted
monthly by APM (the private gas suppliers operate by providing a
discount rate off of the official tariff).
¾
The amount of imbalance in the market drives the price higher
since the last‐resort producers are predominantly NG/ fuel‐oil
plants Æ increasing electricity shortage forecasts indicate higher
prices to come.
¾
In Dec.2009, DUY** system switched to hourly pricing
mechanism. 2010 could be defined as a transition year since the
system was new to the market. Particularly in 2010, despite the
fact that the demand for electricity has increased by 7,9%, the
amount of waterflows received in the first half of the year,
caused lower capacity utilisations of thermal power plants and
electricity prices to decrease compared to 2009.
Private sector generation companies have the following sales platforms:
¾Contract the customer directly providing them a discount rate from the official tariff,
¾Selling to DUY system by quoting generation price/power plant and per the specific time‐segment of the day (price, that the company itself
announces per its own power plants).
*APM : Automatic Pricing Mechanism initiated in July.2008, where electricity and natural gas tariffs are automatically calculated and periodically applied according to the
changes in price of fuel sources, FX rates, inflation rates etc.
**DUY : Clearing house system was initiated in Aug.2006, and provides an “open‐market platform” for the power generation companies, since the price is set by the
generation company according to the supply and demand dynamics, and is not limited by the official tariff. Sales to the DUY(Electricity Market Balancing and
Settlement Regulation) system are exempt from TRT fund and transmission cost.
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AKENERJİ
12
OPERATIONS and INVESTMENTS
Current Active Capacity:
659 MW (N.Gas, Hydro, Wind)
417 tons/h
Ongoing Investments:
87 MW (Hydro)
Development Stage: 900 MW (Natural gas)
Development Stage : 160 MW (Hydro with dam)
Geothermal License: 5 Permits
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AKENERJİ OVERVIEW
¾
Strategic
Partnership with
CEZ
In September 2008, Akenerji has signed a strategic partnership agreement with CEZ to sell 37,5 % of its shares for
302 mio USD. The financial closing has taken place in May 2009.
¾
CEZ know‐how in distribution, coal, lignite and nuclear power plants is an important asset for Akenerji’s growth.
¾
Akenerji has announced its plan to invest USD 3billion in Turkish energy sector to reach an installed capacity of
3.000 MW within 5 years.
¾
In July 2008; Akkök, Akenerji and CEZ, “AkCEZ,” won the Sakarya Electricity Distribution (SEDAS) tender by
submitting the highest bid of USD 600 mio .
Vertical
Integration with
Sedas
¾
Akenerji has taken over SEDAS in Feb.2009 and uses equity pick‐up method for consolidation it.
¾
Vertical integration provides competitiveness in the market and access to end customer.
¾
Security of a sales for the GenCo, and security of need by the DisCo and higher efficiency through integrated work
stream.
900 MW NG Investment Egemer Diversified
Generation
Portfolio
¾
Ability to monitor customer trends, dynamics and needs first hand through Disco.
¾
Akenerji acquired Egemer Company which is in possesion of 900 MW NG Power Plant Licence in March 2009.
¾
With the initiation of the new hydros Akenerji will have a balanced and diversified portfolio.
¾
Profitability Margins in 2011 will be effected positively since hydro power plants will operate during whole year.
¾
When ongoing renewable power plants completed, with a total capacity of 388 MW, Akenerji will avoid over
1 million tons of CO2 release.
14
DISCO TENDERS : COMPARISON
15
* : Based on 2008 figures
VERTICAL INTEGRATION : SEDAS
¾
In July 2008; Akkök‐ Akenerji – CEZ , “AkCEZ,” won SEDAS tender by
submitting the highest bid of USD 600 mio .
¾
Akenerji has taken over SEDAS in Feb.2009.
¾
Akenerji has opted for the “Deferred Payment Option” of the
Privatization Authority and has paid 300 mio USD in cash. The
outstanding balance will be paid through a project finance facility
loan.
¾
App. 1,5 million customers.
¾
More than 50% of the consumption is industrial.
¾
App. 1 billion USD annual revenue in 2010.
¾
Sedaş theft/lost ratio below 7%; one of the lowest in Turkey.
¾
Distributed 7,5 billion kWh in 2010.
¾
Distribution margin is fixed at 2,33% until 2013.
¾
AkCEZ has SEDAŞ’s transfer of operating rights for 30‐years .
¾
Akenerji uses the equity pick‐up method to consolidate AkCEZ and SEDAS to its balance sheet.
¾
In 2009, demand has decreased by 4% in Sedas due to economic crises where Turkey’s GDP growh rate has posted 4,7% shrinkage. In
2010, demand has increased by app. 13% in Sedas after the crises. (2010 GDP of Turkey: 8,9% ). Akenerji’s 2011 GDP growth rate
expectation is 5% for Turkey. Considering that electricity demand is generally 3‐4% higher than GDP growth rate in the country, we
assume that in the conservative scenario electricity demand in Turkey will increase 5‐6% in 2011 comparing with 2010.
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AKENERJI CURRENT INVESTMENTS
The current leader in the market, Akenerji plans to grow through a diversified portfolio. The breakdown of Akenerji’s currently licensed investment are given below:
¾Financing for all Akenerji, Akkur and MEM projects has been
arranged with 7+ year terms and in globally competitive standards.
¾Akenerji has taken over Egemer Enerji Üretim A.Ş., an SPV in
possession of a 900 MW NG PP license in Hatay, Turkey, in March
2009. The investment is currently in development phase and
turnkey contract has recently signed with GE ‐ Gama consortium.
¾In May 2010, Akenerji has acquired Akel‐Kemah Energy with a
160 MW dammed hydro project license. Since we are at the
beginning of the development stage and just finalized the
acquisition procedures, the details about the project will be shared
in the forthcoming days.
¾In 2008; Akenerji obtained 5 permits to search for geothermal
energy capacities in İzmir and Bursa regions.
* : SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle Entity) HPP : Hydro Power Plant
WPP : Wind Power Plant
NG PP: Natural gas fired Power Plant 17
MAIN CAPEX ASSUMPTIONS
Capacity Source Diversification by 2015*
¾For CAPEX estimations, the following data can be used:
1,2‐1,5 mio $/MW for HPPs,
0,75‐1 mio $/MW for NG PPs,
and 1,5‐2 mio $/MW for wind projects.
¾For investment period estimations , the following data can be used:
2 years for WPPs,
2‐3 years for NG PPs ,
and 3 years for HPPs.
¾Akenerji applies 30% equity‐70% debt structure to its investments.
¾All of Akenerji’s renewable projects are eligible to benefit from the Renewable
Energy Law‐ i.e. a purchasing guarantee for 10 years at a price to be determined
by EMRA on a yearly basis. (Currently 7,3 $ cent/kwh)
¾Akenerji has applied for VER (voluntary emission trading) certificates for ALL of
its renewable portfolio.
* Capacity breakdown is based on the licensed investment assumptions given in the previous slides .
18
CAPACITY & SALES FORECAST*
* These forecasts are based on the licensed investment assumptions given in the previous slides .
¾ With the completion of current licenced projects, Akenerji’s power generation capacity will increase with a CAGR of 30% by 2015.
¾Average capacity utilisation rate can be considered as 30‐40 % for hydro, 30‐35% for wind power plants.
¾ In base load conditions 70‐80% capacity utilisation rate can be used for NG fired power plants. ‐ Ayyıldız WPP (15MW) has become operative in Sep.2009. ‐Yalova NG PP (70MW) has sold to Aksa (Akkök Group Company) in Apr.2009
‐ (69MW) capacity installed in various locations of Turkey have sold within 2009 ‐ Starting from the 2nd half of 2010, eight Hydro PPs commenced operations with a total capacity of 373MW
‐900MW Egemer NGPP project and 160 MW Kemah HPP project will become online in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
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SALES & PRICING ASSUMPTIONS
Akenerji has 3 main types of customers: direct, and indirect customers, and DUY system.
DIRECT‐INDIRECT SALES
DUY SALES
¾Direct customers have a physical direct line to the power
¾In Dec.2009, DUY system switched to hourly pricing mechanism.
plant, whereas the indirect customers are supplied through the
2010 could be defined as a transition year since the system was new
national grid (at additional cost).
to the market.
¾Tariff for sales to direct and indirect customers are set as a
¾We expect electricity demand to increase in line with the easing of
function of the government’s tariff. Akenerji applies a discount
the financial crises in 2010 and 2011. Both this, and the increased
rate for direct customers and indirect customers.
capacity of renewable projects in Turkey (due to rainy winter) will
¾Akenerji is the sole supplier of steam for its customers, and
effect the margins and we do not forecast an increase or decrase in
hence can directly reflect the NG price changes in its steam
DUY prices surprisingly in 2011 comparing 2010.
price.
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FIVE YEAR INVESTMENT HORIZON
Overall Goal: Akenerji plans to reach 3000 MWs of installed capacity in 5 years .
Akenerji priorities in diversifying its fuel mix according to the growing demand while growing in generation. Main Focus Areas : 21
FINANCIAL INFORMATION
22
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
* * 23
(*) : Excluding SEDAŞ.
PROFITABILITY PERFORMANCE
¾
In the last three years, Akenerji incurred min 9% and max 15% Ebitda Margin mainly with its natural gas fired power plants. We expect
that the initiation of the new hydro projects will have an affect positive effect on the margins. Accordingly, we expect that 2011 Ebitda
margin will hover at least around 15%.
* : In CMB’s new inflation adjusted accounting terms.
* : TRT fund has been left out of the above calculations to better reveal performance.
* :Impairment losses (Provision the potential value difference resulting from power plant sales) have been left out of the above calculations to better reveal operational performance. 24
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
More about the rights issue...
Shareholders Ownership
Previous Actual Subscription
Paid‐in Capital
Paid‐in Capital
(mio TRY)
(mio TRY)
(mio TRY)
Akkök
37,5%
24,4
116,0
140,4
Subscription is paid in advance at the end of 2009.
CEZ
37,5%
24,4
116,0
140,4
Subscription is paid in advance at the end of 2009.
Public
25%
16,5
78,5
95,0
Pre emption rights were exercised between April 13‐27, 2010 and 99% of the public subscription was paid.
TOTAL
100,0%
65,3
310,5
375,8
¾
Upon increasing Akenerji’s registered capital upper limit from 150 million TRY to 1,5 billion TRY at the end of 2009, Akenerji has completed the
process of increasing its paid‐in capital to TRY 375,8 mio from TRY 65,3 in accordance with the legislation on April 13,2010.
¾
The unsubscribed shares was offered to public in the first half of May,2010. Capital increase process was completed and new shares were listed
on ISE in May 2010.
¾
Proceeds from the rights issue will be used for Egemer project and new upcoming projects.
25
STOCK PERFORMANCE
Market Cap ∼ mUSD 650
26
ABBREVIATIONS
MW
: Megawatt
GW
: Gigawatt
NG
: Natural Gas
GDP
: Gross Domestic Product
CAGR
: Compound Annual Growth Rate
DUY
: Electricity Market Balancing and Settlement Regulation System
DISCO
: Distribution Companies
EUAS
: Electricity Generation Co.Inc.
APM
: Automatic Pricing Mechanism
TRT
: Turkish Radio ‐ Television Corporation HPP
: Hydroelectric Power Plant
WPP
: Wind Power Plant
NG PP
: Natural Gas Fired Power Plant
USD
: US Dollars
mio $
: Million Dollars
PP
: Power Plant
SPV
: Special Purpose Vehicle Entity
VER
: Voluntary Emmission Trading
EMRA
: Electricity Market Regulatory Authority EBITDA
: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation
CMB
: Capital Markets Board of Turkey
TRY
: Turkish Lira
ROE
: Return on Equity : Net Income / Shareholders's Equity
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AKENERJI INVESTOR RELATIONS
Akenerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş.
Miralay Şefik Bey Sok. No:15 Akhan
34437 Gümüşsuyu İstanbul
Turkey
[email protected]
Gamze DİNÇKÖK YÜCAOĞLU
+90 212 249 82 82 [email protected]
Nilüfer AYDOĞAN
+90 212 249 82 82 (ext:21130)
+90 212 393 50 18
[email protected]
This presentation contains information and analysis on financial statements as well as forward‐looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the information and analysis are correct and expectations
reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause
actual results to differ materially. Neither Akenerji nor any of its managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any
loss arising from the use of this presentation.
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