Cuba - ianas

Hurricane: forecasting,
preparedness and
communication
Dr. José Rubiera
Director National Forecast Center
Institute of Meteorology
Havana, Cuba
Scientific Conference, Wednesday, July 17th
“Impacts of Climate Change, Disasters and Hazards”
1
•
Activity Periods, Climate Change and
Hurricanes.
•
Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System in
Cuba.
A Great Level of Cyclonic Activity have been
recorded in the Atlantic basin in the 18-year
period 1995 – 2012.
Period
Tropical
Storms
Hurricanes
Major
Hurricanes
1851-1994
10
5
2
1995-2012
15
8
3.7
Global Mean Temperature
Hurricane–region SSTs Projected in the
21st Century
3.8 °C
1.6 °C
Surface Temperature Anomalies during
most recent Inactive and Active
Atlantic Major Hurricane Periods
Inactive Period (July 1966 - Dec.1989)
Active Period (Jan. 1995 – Aug. 2005)
Tropical Cyclone activity is closely related to SST
Data Source: HadCRUT2v (Climatic Research Unit, U.K.)
GFDL Zetac Nonhydrostatic Regional Model:
18km Tropical N. Atlantic Simulation
Simulated hurricanes
Data Source: GFDL
GFDL Simulations: Hurricanes are more intense for
warmer climate conditions …(~4% per deg C)
More Cat 5
Note: Min. central pressures are averages over day 5 of integrations.
Source: Knutson and Tuleya, J. Climate, 2004.
GFDL Simulations: Hurricanes have significantly
more near-storm rainfall for warmer climate
conditions …(~12% per deg C)
More Rainfall
Average rainfall in a 32,700 km2 region of highest 6-hour accumulation (equivalent to
100 km radius region).
Source: Knutson and Tuleya, J. Climate, 2004.
Source: Landsea, NOAA
Accumulated
Cyclone
Energy (ACE)
In 60 – year
periods
 Mid-Atlantic increase could be due to technological
artifacts: aircraft and satellite reconnaissance shows
a different view.
 There is no statistically significant evidence so far
that this “trend” is any less significant than the
overall increase (although a large technological
component seems likely)
Data quality issues remain unresolved at this time.
13
o It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly
greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have
already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity.
That said, human activities may have already caused changes
that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the
changes or observational limitations, or are not yet properly
modeled (e.g., aerosol effects).
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely
cause hurricanes globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to
11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in
the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in
storm size.
Source: T.R. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised January 30, 2013
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o There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over
the next century will lead to an increase in the numbers of very
intense hurricanes in some basins—an increase that would be
substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase
in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm
numbers is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in
the global numbers of all tropical storms.
o Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely
cause hurricanes to have substantially higher rainfall rates than
present-day hurricanes, with a model-projected increase of about
20% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm
center.
Source: T.R. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised January 30, 2013
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But the overall conclusion is that….
INTENSITY
Exposure is also increasing !
Weather hazards are
increasing in
intensity and in
some of them also
in frequency
WE DO HAVE TO
THINK IN
CLIMATE
CHANGE!
FREQUENCY
Tropical Cyclones are the greatest disaster
hazard in Cuba
CUBA
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Major Natural Catastrophes in Cuban
History have been associated with
Hurricanes
1844 and 1846: Two Major hurricanes hit Havana in only two-year
in between; more that 100 fatalities in each, destruction of the
City in the second.
(F. Miahle, 1846)
Major Natural Catastrophes in Cuban
History have been associated with
Hurricanes
1926: A Major Hurricane hit Havana; 600 fatalities
1944: Another Major Hurricane in Havana; 300 fatalities
Major Natural Catastrophes in Cuban
History have been associated with
Hurricanes
SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR NOVEMBER 1932
Storm Surge
Cat 5 Hurricane
Casualties: 3033
The whole city dissapeared under the 6.5
meters high Storm Surge
HURRICANE FLORA OCTOBER 1963
Intense Rainfall
Total amount: 1 800 mm in 72 hr.
Casualties 1159
Great Material Losses,
US $300 000 000 (1963 value)
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Major Natural Catastrophes in Cuban
History have been associated with
Hurricanes
The experiences with Hurricane ¨Flora¨ gave way
to the development of:
o A modern National Weather Service,
o A modern Civil Defense System
o A network of dams to store wáter and
reduce our vulnerability to floods and
droughts
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Principles in the Cuban EWS
• Wide Legal Basis
• Clearly defined Mission, Objectives and Functions for each actor
in the EWS.
• All steps in TC Disaster Management are followed.
• Full coordination among main actors
• A complete observing system for the country.
• Operational manuals regulates all actions in the National
Forecast Center. A QMS will be in force since Hurricane Season
2013.
• The use of Media by specialists, with graphics and plain, simple
words, so that everybody understand the information. And be
urged to take actions.
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Wide Legal Basis

Law No. 75 of National Defense

Decree-law No. 170 on the Civil Defense system

Guideline No. 1 of the Vice President of the National
Defense Council

Law No. 81 / 97 on the Environment

Resolution 106 /99 of the Ministry of Science,
Technology and Environment

Ordinance Law No. 279 of 2007 "On General
Principles, Organization, Preparation and Provisions of
the Hydrometeorological System of Cuba for
Exceptional Situations
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1. The National Forecast Center of
2.
3.
4.
INSMET and their territorial
branches are in charge of
monitoring and forecasting
Tropical Cyclones
Authorities at the different
levels of Government,
implement protection
measures, advised by officials
and experts of the Civil
Defense.
Media and social organizations
from National to local level help
disseminate the information.
Citizens are well organized,
educated and prepared.
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



To constantly monitor weather
To issue timely Early Warnings to the
Government, the Civil Defense, and the people
on any hazardous weather system that could
affect any part of the Country.
To transmit Early Warnings and warnings through
the Media, mainly TV and radio, updating the
information frequently.
To participate in awareness and educational
activities
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CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN
TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT
PREVENTIÓN
RISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNING
PUBLIC EDUCATION
PREPARATION
RESPONSE
RECOVERY
PREVENTION
AND
MITIGATION
FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING,
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE
RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICES
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
FOR THE AFFECTED AREA
METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL THESE
STEPS
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TO FACE HURRICANE´S THREAT
NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER (NFC)
CUBA
CIVIL DEFENSE
THE MEDIA
NATIONAL FORECAST
CENTER
CIVIL DEFENSE/
GOVERNMENT
MEDIA
MEDIA
CITIZENS
A STRONG PARTNERSHIP EXISTS AMONG THE
NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, THE CIVIL
DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA
The National Forecast Centre issues meteorological
warnings on tropical cyclone in a simple way, with clear,
concise and comprehensible words for everybody
The National Civil Defense
issues a warning note and
advises the population at
risk, from National to local
levels, on the protection
measures they must take
National TV and
Radio Broadcast
the Warnings
“Live” (with remote
units) from the
NFC and the CD
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THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE IS WELL PREPARED
1 National Forecast Centre
15 Provincial Forecast Departments
68 Meteorological Stations
8 Meteorological Radars
1 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations
THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCE
Weather Station Network
68 MWS + 60 New AWS
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Radar Network Coverage in Cuba
8 Meteorological Radars
covers the entire Country
Radar Network Coverage in Cuba
Range in each Radar:
Qualitatively: 450 - 500 km.
Quantitatively: 150 km.
Radars Permanently Monitor Weather around
Cuba
DATA INPUT
SATELLITES
ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST
MODELS
ISSUANCE OF
FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS
NATIONAL
FORECAST
CENTER
DIFUSISION OF
FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS
TV
RADARS
WEATHER
STATIONS,
SOUNDINGS,
SHIPS, BUOYS,
AIRCRAFS
RADIO
FORECASTERS
TELF - FAX
NUMERICAL
MODELS
INTERNET
RESPONSE
ACTIONS BY
GOVERNMENT,
CIVIL DEFENSE
AND CITIZENS
Weather information is followed every day by 6
millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricane this figure
greatly increases
4 daily Weather Reports
In National TV and radio networks,
to the World by satellite through Cuba Vision International
9 weather presenters, all of them professionals from the National
Forecast Center
(3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 5 meteorologists with university degree)
All Hurricane Expected Impacts are
Addressed in Detail and Forecast Limitations
are Explained to the Public using Plain Words
TRACK AND
EXPECTED
WIND FIELD
AREAS WITH
INTENSE
AND HEAVY
RAINFALL
STORM
SURGE
FORECAST
National Forecast Center Web Site
rr
rr
http://www.insmet.cu
Weather Phone Free Service
1.
2.
3.
4.
Free Weather Phone Service 5.
+53 7 866 6060
6.
DIAL:
General Weather
Report
Watches and
Warnings
Weather Forecast for
Cuba
Weather Forecast for
Havana City
Weather forecast for
Havana Province
Marine Forecast for
Fishermen
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METEOROLOGY
WARNINGS
CIVIL DEFENSE
+ CONFIDENCE
PEOPLE´S
ACTION
LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES THAT HAVE AFFECTED
CUBA (1995-2012)
LEYEND:
TROPICAL STORM (TS)
MINOR HURRICANE (Cat 1 and 2) (MIH)
MAJOR HURRICANE (Cat 3, 4 or 5) (MJH)
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NAME
LEYEND:
TS
MIH
MJH
YEAR
CATEGORY
FATALITIES
Lili
1996
H2
0
Georges
1998
H1
6
Irene
1999
TS
2
Michelle
2001
H4
5
Isidore
2002
H1
0
Lili
2002
H2
1
Charley
2004
H3
4
Ivan
2004
H5
0
Dennis
2005
H4
16
Alberto
2006
TS
0
Ernesto
2006
TS
0
Noel
2007
TS
0
Fay
2008
TS
0
Hanna (Indir.)
2008
TS
0
Gustav
2008
H4
0
Ike
2008
H4
7
Paloma
2008
H4
0
Issac
2012
TS
0
Sandy
2012
H3
11
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2008
ECONOMIC DAMAGES HAVE BEEN LARGE
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RESIDENTS AT RISK
11.5 M
35.7 M
EFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANES
Major
Hurricanes
1995-2012
Residents
at Risk
(Millions)
Number of
Deaths in
Major
Hurricanes
Cat 3,4 5
Death/
Million
Residents
USA
9
35.7
1597
44.7
CUBA
9
11.5
43
3.7
COUNTRY
Sources: NHC (US) and INSMET (Cuba)
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CONCLUSIONS
1. The entire region is embedded into a period of high
tropical cyclone activity. This current period is stronger than
any other previously known, and the amount of major
hurricanes is the greatest figure ever recorded. These
situation may be worse in a Climate Change environment.
2. Cuba has an Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones
that covers all legal, structural, institutional and public
aspects. The strong partnership and interaction among the
National Forecast Center (INSMET), the Civil Defense, the
Media and the action of an educated people, is the
cornerstone of this system.
3. As a result of it, fatalities in tropical storms and hurricanes
are a minimum, and the smallest amount recorded in the
Americas, despite the intense tropical cyclone activity
recorded in the Atlantic area since 1995.
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Questions?
Comments?
Dr. José Rubiera
Director National Forecast Center
Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)
Havana, CUBA.
[email protected]
[email protected]
INSMET, CUBA
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