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We sent you a lot of trends this year. We also met many of you in person at our afternoon
seminars and private corporate sessions in North and South America, the EU and Asia Pacific.
We truly enjoyed the exchange, and look forward to meeting up again in 2005. For this end of
year edition, we've incorporated some of our most important trends into the rather broad
'MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE' concept. It will get you going in 2005, in 2006, in 2007... We've
also added an extensive update on our MASSCLUSIVITY trend, made all of our past trends
accessible and have added coverage of our trends by major publications worldwide, most
recently Fast Company, Washington Post, BBC, Entrepreneur, Hindustan Times and Harvard
Business School.
NEWSLETTER
TRENDWATCHING.COM
ISSUE 22
December 2004
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In 2005, expect even more trends and more insights: your comments are as always more
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The gales of Creative Destruction were never better felt than in 2004. From powerful
design and luxury for the masses that forced even the most mundane organizations to
deliver an experience, to BRIC powerhouses (that would be Brazil, Russia, and above
all, India and China) making themselves heard, this is not exactly a business arena for
the fainthearted.
The real story however, and one that is still on page/screen one, is the 'New Consumer':
at the core of each of our and other trend watchers' mega/meta/macro trends are the
new consumers, who create their own playgrounds, their own comfort zones, their own
universe. It's the 'empowered' and 'better informed' and 'switched on' consumer
combined into something profound, something TRENDWATCHING.COM has dubbed
MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE. At the core is control: psychologists don't agree on
much, except for the belief that human beings want to be in charge of their own
destiny. Or at least have the illusion of being in charge. (Thank you, Tom Peters.)
And just because they can now get this control in
entirely new ways, aided by an online, low cost,
creativity-hugging revolution that's still in its
infancy, young and old (particularly the young)
consumers now weave webs of unrivaled
connectivity
and
dig
instant
knowledge
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gratification. They exercise total control over creative collections, including their own
creative assets, assume different identities in cyberspace at a whim, wallow in DIY /
Customization / Personalization / Co-Creation to make companies deliver whatever and
whenever on their own terms, and so on.
Needless to say, it's not a done deal. Not all power has or will shift in its entirety
towards every single individual on this globe, but neither will the current hierarchies, in
which consumers may now and then still find themselves on the bottom rung, survive.
Eventually, consumers will stop at nothing to achieve and enhance their MASTER OF
THE YOUNIVERSE status, and corporations have no choice but to facilitate this
process. When technology, societal norms, demographics or any other fundamental
force unlocks basic, deep human needs and desires in new ways, all the average
company can do is to assist and serve.
As always, to bring all of this down to earth a bit, we have compiled a long list of
MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE statistics, spottings and services. As this concept slash
trend is so massive, part II and III are to follow in upcoming editions. Buckle up for Part
I's, random proof, examples and ammunition:
••••
BREATHLESSLY ADDICTED
MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE are now officially addicted to online access, the fuel
that keeps the YOUNIVERSE going, a phenomenon which we dubbed ONLINE OXYGEN
a while ago. How connected and addicted are consumers? Well, consider the fact that
812,000,000(!) human beings are now online worldwide (Internet World Stats,
September 2004), with Asia claiming most users, and China, with close to 100 million
ONLINE OXYGEN addicts, boasting more online citizens than any other nation except
the US. The word 'amazing' would be an understatement. Which also goes for the fact
that close to 100% of all teenagers in countries like The Netherlands, South Korea and
the US rely on online oxygen to shape their budding YOUNIVERSES.
Case in point: two months ago, a Yahoo/OMD Internet Deprivation Study, which
involved 12 US based families going without any kind of online access for two weeks
(backed up by a survey amongst 1000 online users), found that 'regardless of age,
household income or ethnic background, all participants in the ethnographic research
study experienced withdrawal and feelings of loss, frustration and
disconnectedness when cut off from the online world'. Furthermore, participants
described their time offline as 'having to 'resist temptation', missing their 'private
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escape time' during the day, and 'feeling left out of the loop'. The latter should dispel
most people's fears about MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE being egotistical: lack of
communications figured most prominently in the withdrawal process. However, the
most telling finding: 'It was incredibly difficult to recruit participants for this study, as
people weren't willing to be without the internet for two weeks,' according to Wenda
Harris Millard, Yahoo!'s chief sales officer. Take away ONLINE OXYGEN, i.e. confidence,
security, social networks and empowerment, and entire YOUNIVERSES will implode.
Talking about empowerment: with humankind's collective knowledge now at everyone's
fingertips, it shouldn't come as a surprise that a poll conducted by MSN Search found
that search engines are the first port of call for nearly half of men seeking advice. Male
MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE talk to their search engines more than their
girlfriends, colleagues or even their families. And yes, TRENDWATCHING.COM knows
that both Yahoo! and MSN have a vested interest in these outcomes, but does anyone
really believe the online revolution is anything short of, well, revolutionary?
As ONLINE OXYGEN becomes essential, so do the various devices associated with it:
they simply cannot be shared. Just witness how the concept of privatized ownership has
invaded the family nucleus when it comes to cell phones, iPods, game consoles,
computers, BlackBerrys, digital cameras. In the US, families can buy packages with up
to five free cell phones (FamilyTalk, FamilyTime etc), while in the EU, 80% of all kids
aged 15+ own mobile phones. However, once MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE have
their tools, they're definitely willing to share the content associated with it, as long as
it's on their own terms: the iPod, for one, is easily turned into a jukebox, playlists get
exchanged, and sharing is the new giving. It's all about control, not necessarily
isolation: controlling one's space, time, content, communications, one's YOUNIVERSE.
••••
FREEDOM, MOBILITY & INDEPENDENCE
In a not-too distant past, the automobile
was the ultimate symbol of coming of age:
a way out from parents (and friends'
parents), from siblings' prying eyes, from
geographical constraints. No longer: for
hundreds
of
millions
of
consumers
worldwide, 'The Cell Phone is the New
Car' (as the Economist cleverly stated
earlier
this
year).
Consider
these
similarities between the automotive and
wireless/handheld industries:
• Model and customization define the
owner
• Replacement is frequent
• Choice is massive
• Branding and design are key
• Competition is global
• Anticipation of new models is enormous
For MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE, FREEDOM, MOBILITY and INDEPENDENCE rule,
and the cell phone delivers these benefits to the youngest of generations. Want
(staggering) numbers? The worldwide number of mobile cell phone users is estimated at
1,6 billion people in 2004 (from 1,3 billion in 2003). A staggering 320 million of these
users can be found in China. The global number will rise to 2,1 billion in 2009 (source:
Ovum, July 2004). Close to 30% of all tweens (age 6-15) in Hong Kong, Australia,
Japan and Singapore own a cell phone. This number is 50% for most European nations.
Germany and Sweden, with 65%, have the highest score. In The Netherlands and
Japan, close to 100% of all 14 year olds possess a cell phone. No wonder that in the
UK, a group of teens who recently agreed to go without their phones for two weeks as
an experiment (Manning Gottlieb OMD), told researchers that their social lives had
fallen apart (source: Independent).
The biggest related story for 2005? ONLINE OXYGEN (UMTS, WiFi etc) meets Freedom!
With the average MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE now having spent years online, the
online mindset is deeply ingrained and stretches outside the office desk; it's 24/7, on
the way home, when in the park, during boring business seminars ;-)... So are you and
your company still in a car-mindset or a phone mindset? Have you thought about
learning from or partnering with the wireless industry as that's where the action is,
that's where MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE find their kicks these days!?
••••
But wait, it's not ALL virtual and online: thanks to the low cost revolution, the new car is
not only the cell phone, it's also... the plane! Giving an entirely new meaning to 'getting
away from it all', inspecting the various corners of one's real-world YOUNIVERSE is
now more accessible than ever, as low fare airlines like AirAsia, RyanAir, Tiger Airways,
AirArabia, GOL and JetBlue; and NO FRILLS CHIC hotels like Yotel and NO FRILLS
easyHotel will soon span the entire globe, creating a unheard of low-cost ecosystem
enabling MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE to travel and reside anywhere in Europe,
Asia Pacific, South America, the Gulf Region, Africa, North America at prices any
member of the MASS CLASS can afford.
Please also re-read our PLANNED SPONTANEITY trend, which further deals with this goanywhere, get-everything, go-anytime mentality, and MASTERS OF THE
YOUNIVERSE's associated expectations of instant gratification, which will transcend
the world of travel and eventually become the standard for all B2C industries.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOW STARRING
Accommodating 6,396,000,000 individuals of which at least 1,000,000,000 (from
Stockholm to Singapore) have the means to be aspiring MASTERS OF THE
YOUNIVERSE, is no easy task in the real, physical, resource challenged world. Creating
one's own (virtual) YOUNIVERSE and multiple identities in cyberspace is, however, no
problem at all. Millions of consumers now 'live' in online communities, play multiplayer
games, chat with anyone and everyone. A quarter of American households owns a Sony
PlayStation, Halo2 sold USD 125 million worth of copies on its launch date a few weeks
ago, the related Xbox Live service includes 24 countries, and more than one million
paying subscribers, and Lineage, the world's most popular online multiplayer game, has
3.2 million monthly users, of which 2.2 million in South Korea, where the game was
developed.
How are these virtual worlds/games impacting daily life? Consider the following
fascinating MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE learnings:
• In games, the individual is always the star. Which then translates to gamers
expecting to be a star in the real world, in daily life, in the workforce, wanting to lead
and to stand out.
• In games, there's always a solution, gamers just have to find it. Pounding on a
problem until it gets solved may then translate into more persistence and optimism
when not behind the console as well.
• In games, failure is part of success. Anyone who tries a new game fails multiple times
before getting it right, so the Gamer Generation is more willing to take risks. (Sources:
USA TODAY and 'Got Game', by John Beck and Mitchell Wade.)
It is exactly this kind of behavioral change that make the MASTER OF THE
YOUNIVERSE concept so exciting: whenever human beings' expectations change, the
nature of consumerism and relationships with brands and companies are bound to
change as well.
And how about wanting to be three MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE instead of just
one? Fully 56% of online teens in the US have more than one email address or screen
name and most use different screen names or email addresses to compartmentalize
different parts of their lives online, or so that they can experiment with different
personas. Boys report having multiple email addresses or screen names more often
than girls. Sixty-one percent of boys have more than one address, almost a quarter
have four or more. Half of online girls (50%) have more than one screen name or email
account and nearly one in five girls have more than four online identities. The oldest
boys (15 to 17) are the most likely to have more than one address, with two-thirds
reporting multiple addresses. The most active internet users are the most likely of all to
have multiple addresses. Of those teens with multiple addresses, nearly one-quarter say
that at least one of those addresses is a secret address that teens use when they do not
want their friends to know that they are online (sources: Pew Internet & American Life:
Teens & Their Friends).
••••
BUY, BUY, BUY
OK, so let's talk consumer empowerment. Is there a single consumer left in Cape Town,
Seoul, London, Vancouver or Dallas who does NOT check a plethora of opinionated or
know-it-all websites before spending serious money on camcorders, hotel rooms, golf
gear, cars, dating, or vintage sneakers, online AND offline? Is a MASTER OF THE
YOUNIVERSE-in-purchasing-mode's first stop NOT www.planetfeedback.com or
www.askanowner.com or tripadvisor.com or www.dooyoo.co.uk or www.guenstiger.de
or www.mm.co.kr or www.buscape.com.br or epinions.com or ebay.com or
www.elcheapo.nl or amazon.com or kelkoo.com or the thousands of other curators
(read: blogs), forums and bulletin boards striving for the kind of transparency that
should scare the ... out of every business professional?
Fact is, the debate about your prices and your offerings and
your services and your quality has moved online, with millions
of consumers joining the conversation. And they talk to each
other, not to you. By the way, this phenomenon too is going
mobile, 24/7: consider Amazon.com Japan's new 'Scan
Search', which enables consumers in any real-world store to
point their cell phones at any product's barcode and then get
instantly directed to Amazon.com.jp on their phone screen
where they can view the (no doubt lower priced) item, and
have it sent to them straight away? It's the tip of the iceberg,
with Google now sending users any answer they desire by
SMS, Yahoo rolling out a new mobile portal, etc. (Pictures
courtesy of engadget.com.)
Only solution to avoid total commoditization in a MASTER OF
THE YOUNIVERSE world: to be unique, one of a kind, to let
the customer personalize, customize or even better co-create
with you your goods, services, processes and experiences.
Easier said than done? Re-read our CUSTOMER MADE for
inspiring ideas, and to find out what horrible things may happen
to those stuck in a pre-transparent MASTER OF THE
YOUNIVERSE era.
More on consumer empowerment and GENERATION C
(MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE are actively claiming their right to self expression,
to creativity), CURATED CONSUMPTION, NICHE MANIA, new ways of branding, and
TWINSUMER revolutions in the upcoming Part II of this trend.
••••
OPPORTUNITIES
The bad news: most companies don't get the above. Yet. The good news: most
companies don't get the above. Yet. We know YOU get it, and no doubt while reading
this trend description you've come up with plenty of other indicators, observations or
manifestations of MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE, be it the blogging revolution or
TiVo or Dan Pink's free agents, or Richard Florida's Creative Class or the hundreds of
thousands of consumers making a living on eBay. So may we humbly suggest you start
collecting these observations? Create your own MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE file,
box, folder, or whatever works for you and start connecting the dots. Use the above
(and upcoming parts II and III) as the start of a framework, then closely observe your
own changing behavior and that of others when it comes to connecting, buying, selling,
creating, communicating, learning, entertaining and so on.
Understand that no longer will companies be able to see themselves as the centre of the
universe. Their proper place is amongst the many planets, suns, comets and what have
you, facilitating and delighting MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE by letting them do
their own thing and handing them more control. Which means hard work now, and lots
of profit in the future. As always, there's more to come (we're obviously tempted to
dedicate an entire book to this topic)!! >> Email this trend to a friend.
RELATED TRENDS
Nearly all of our trends are related to MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE.
WANT TO LINK TO THIS TREND?
www.trendwatching.com/trends/MASTERoftheYOUNIVERSE.htm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2003, we coined MASSCLUSIVITY. Ever since, we've continued to study the fast
changing world of luxury, spotting loads of MASSCLUSIVITY and UBER PREMIUM
manifestations (the latter phrase was coined by Tyler Brule to describe truly exclusive
and totally premium goods and services for a worldwide elite besieged by
MASSCLUSIVITY creep). We incorporated Alain de Botton's STATUS ANXIETY; which
explains consumers' never-ending quest for status and standing out amidst a SEA OF
SAMENESS and MASS CLASS standards. And we certainly learned from Boston
Consulting Group who pointed out that TRADING UP is now such a mass-phenomenon
that it is actually leading to TRADING DOWN: consumer spending is polarizing across a
number of industries, with consumers consciously (and, may we point out, without any
embarrassment) shopping for bargains -- Costco! Target! -- in order to be able to buy
status-confirming Coach bags and Aveda toiletries a week later.
In fact, as the luxury market is now the most prominent provider of status, in a world
dictated by experienced, mature consumers demanding the best of the best, every
marketer needs to religiously track what's doing in the world of the Pradas, the
Lufthansas, the Jumeirahs, the Maybachs, the Bulgari Hotels and so on. After all, "one
generation's indulgence becomes the next generation's necessity" (James Twitchell).
And while we definitely see signs that creativity is slowly but certainly becoming an
alternative source for gaining status, (please re-read our GENERATION C trend, which
we'll update in our January 2005 issue), we don't expect the luxury phenomenon to run
out of steam in 2005. Au contraire. The biggest new markets for MASSCLUSIVITY and
UBER PREMIUM are the boom regions of Coastal China and Urban India (increased
global prosperity, anyone?), where flaunting luxury brands is and will be de rigueur for
years to come.
Consider Shanghai's 'Dior Cosmetic', which was designated as the most luxurious Dior
boutique, and made China the third country (after France and Japan) to get one. In
China, the annual sales of Dior are now increasing by 40 percent to 50 percent. Near
Shanghai's Dior boutique, you'll find Louis Vuitton, Armani, and Cartier, all going the
after the country's estimated 160 million luxury consumers. In fact, Armani plans to
open 20-30 new stores on the mainland by 2008, Prada will invest USD 40 million in
China in the next two years (doubling the number of stores there this year to 15), and
Louis Vuitton plans to have 13 Chinese mainland stores early 2005. That's just the
beginning: the number of Chinese consumers with an annual income above 240,000
yuan (about USD 30,000) is expected to reach 250 million in 2010. (Source:
ChinaView.)
Meanwhile, in Europe and North America, a shift towards luxury experiences continues
to build up. According to a recent American Express Platinum Luxury survey, 59% of
affluent Americans (those with incomes of USD 100,000 or higher) would rather spend
on experiential luxuries— restaurants, travel and entertainment— than on gadgets and
goods. The Experience Economy is alive and kicking, and here too, purveyors of luxury
provide people like yourselves with an endless source of inspiration, whether you're in
FMCG or financial services.
••••
So, here's a new list of global MASSCLUSIVITY and UBER PREMIUM spottings that
should help you dream up goods and services attractive enough to satisfy even the
most demanding MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE ;-)
HOT: Business Class-Only airlines, terminals and more
Some lessons from the world of travel: as JetBlue delivers leather seats at SouthWest
fares, airports in Asia and Europe have become 'Airport Cities' offering luxury shopping
and great dining, and well designed waiting areas for the MASS CLASS now out-style
traditional business lounges, how can you help premium passengers still stand out?
Sure, flatbeds and on-board a la carte dining are proliferating, but how about making
the entire experience truly exclusive?
Take a cue from Germany's Lufthansa, who have just unveiled the world's first
dedicated luxury class air terminal in Frankfurt. No crowds, no queuing and no
jostling, just personal assistants, valet parking, individual offices, and well-designed
rest rooms, dining and cigar rooms. Best of all (and worth the USD 10,000 first class
ticket tag alone), passengers will be chauffeur driven to the aircraft in a Mercedes SClass or Porsche Cayenne. The 1,800 square meter (19,000 square feet) terminal will
handle 350 passengers a day, including members of Lufthansa's new, beyond-frequentflyer 'Hon' program (for which only 2% of its current top customers qualify). A second
MASSCLUSIVITY terminal in Munich is in the works for 2005 (sources: FT, TravelBiz).
It fits well with another development we highlighted in a previous update, but now
really seems ready for take-off (forgive the pun): the emergence of all-business-class
flights. Here as well, Lufthansa is one of the pioneers, flying from Munich and
Dusseldorf to Chicago and Newark, using PrivatAir planes configured to seat only 48,
all business class, passengers.
Also making use of PrivatAir is Swiss International, who will introduce a similar
business-class only flight between Zurich and New York (Newark) in January 2005.
There will be 56 seats and six weekly flights. Competition may come from new
PremiumAir, who plans to start all-business class flights in Spring 2005 between Geneva
and Newark. Meanwhile, and perhaps eyeing the PrivatAir market, NetJets Europe has
placed a USD 160 million order for 25 Raytheon Hawker planes. Deliveries starting in
2007, the planes will be available only to share and lease clients.
Not to be outdone, Singapore Airlines has skipped 'regular' economy and only offers
business class and 'premium economy class' on its direct Singapore-New York and LA
routes. The number of seats has been brought down from 313 to 181. Last but not
least, Italy's Eurofly will launch all-business flights between Milan and New York in June
2005. Aiming to offer the service six days a week, the cabin configuration includes fully
electric and lie-flat, 58-inch pitch seats, equipped for services such as video on demand,
computer connectivity and inflight e-mail/SMS capability.
Expect similar initiatives in a host of B2C industries: consumers will increasingly crave
to be separated from the masses, and as long as they are willing to open their wallets,
you're in! ;-)
••••
Blingclusivity
Apple may have a black and red iPod U2 Special Edition
on offer, but Crystalmini brings consumers real
MASSCLUSIVITY with more than a touch of Bling: the
company sells iPod minis in the color of your choice,
adorned with 'One Crystal per song to represent every
song you love'. In true BRANDED BRANDS fashion, the
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crystals are from Swarovski. Orders currently take 3-4 weeks to fulfill, due to heavy
demand, which of course adds to the whole MASSCLUSIVITY spiel. Anything you can
adorn and thus make more special?
••••
Cyberclusivity
As social networking sites Friendster.com and Linkedin.com are now distinctively MASS
CLASS, the next step in linking up with a select number of MASTERS OF THE
YOUNIVERSE is aSmallWorld, an invitation-only online community which is not open to
the public. It allows its 22,000 members to interact more effectively with 'like minded'
individuals who share similar friends, interests, and schedule. Think most exclusive
restaurants, hotels, and night clubs in over 60 major cities, summer and winter resorts
and keeping track of major events, parties, exhibitions, film and music festivals and
sporting events such as motor racing, tennis, sailing, golf, and others. Next step:
anextremelysmallworld.com? Don't forget: the fewer the members, the higher the
margins!
••••
Spotted in Dubai, UAE: not only is the Mina A' Salam the world's first Grand Boutique
hotel, it also offers MASSCLUSIVITY within MASSCLUSIVITY by offering a Premium
Leisure Club floor for its non-business guests. Most business travelers now enjoy
dedicated business floors, but this is a family oriented concept with an exclusive check
in and reception, a dedicated lounge area (with all day beverages, afternoon tea, predinner canapés etc.) and spacious outdoor seating for the sole use of Premium Leisure
Club guests. For children, a purpose built playroom and computer room are provided for
their entertainment. The Club provides a personalized service through its specially
trained team. It's yet another interesting take on how extend existing
MASSCLUSIVITY concepts and assets for business consumers to the leisure crowd.
••••
One more reason to look at UBER PREMIUM goods and services: even though a whole
new industry is emerging that is so over the top that in theory the services on offer are
out of reach to virtually anyone except the most chosen few, our favorite professor of
advertising, James Twitchell, has already pointed out that selling UBER PREMIUM
products and services in smaller doses, increments or units of time WILL create yet
another interesting MASSCLUSIVITY market within reach of mere mortals. Point in
case: average consumers may not be able to buy a shiny Mercedes Benz convertible,
but they can afford a SIXT rental Benz cabriolet for only EUR 119 a day (USD 158)!
Or how about Godiva's USD 100-a-pound, ultra premium G Collection chocolates, which
come complete with a USD 350 keepsake gift box. Most consumers will not be able to
afford kilos of the stuff, but they may buy one G chocolate at a time. As even the most
premium of premium becomes affordable when presented in bite-size servings, you
have yet another reason to keep a close eye on what delights the NON-CYCLICAL RICH
these days.
••••
OPPORTUNITIES
Had it with luxury? Feel TRENDWATCHING.COM is turning into a mouthpiece of the rich
and famous? Think again. We're not suggesting you launch your own First-Class-Only
airline, or start selling chocolates covered in liquid Peruvian gold, but we do hope that
the pieces of the STATUS puzzle are falling into place with the above examples, the
MASTER OF THE YOUNIVERSE concept, and everything else we've published and
presented this year: it's about constantly learning from the companies who understand
what truly drives consumers, and about finding out which tangible and increasingly
intangible benefits deliver the highest satisfaction and thus highest margins. See you in
2005! >> Email this trend to a friend.
WANT TO LINK TO THIS TREND OR READ THE
DESCRIPTION?
www.trendwatching.com/trends/2002/11/MASSCLUSIVITY.html
ORIGINAL
TREND
Want even more inspiration? Our next newsletter, which we'll send out on 10 January
2005, will bring you new trends like INFORMATION STARVATION and updates on our
GENERATION C and LIFE CACHING trends! Received this edition from a friend or
colleague? Get your own free subscription here.
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quality of the information provided. Liability claims regarding damage caused by the use of any
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London mailing address: Suite 1, 50 Redcliffe Square, SW10 9 HQ London, United Kingdom.
Web address: www.trendwatching.com Email address: [email protected].