Home SAleS RepoRt second Quarter - Virginia Association of Realtors

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to
provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data
comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia
Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.
The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and
independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that
these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 primary local
REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern
Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern
Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley:
Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland,
Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City
Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover,
Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan,
Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex
Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews,
Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City,
Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York
Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier,
Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page,
Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City
Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin,
Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City,
Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2015-Q4
First Quarter Market Summary
Sales and prices increased year-over-year in the first quarter of 2016 and
annualized sales show that the market is continuing to grow. The first quarter of
2016 is the sixth consecutive quarter of growth in the annualized measure and
has increased nearly 9% since the first quarter of 2015. Growth in annualized
sales is a good indicator of long-term, sustained strengthening of the residential
real estate market.
The number of sales in Virginia in the first quarter of 2016 increased 2.2%
over the first quarter of 2015. Regional changes were varied. The Hampton
Roads/Chesapeake Bay region, Central Valley and Northern Virginia saw 9.3%,
10.1% and 10.6% increases respectively, while other regions experienced more
modest increases or marginal decreases in sales.
Regional changes in price were less varied. Changes in price ranged between
an increase of 3.8% in the Central Valley and a decrease of 0.7% in the Roanoke/
Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, with the exception of Southside and Southwest
Virginia. Southside and Southwest Virginia often experience more pronounced
fluctuations because the number of sales in each region is relatively low,
reflecting low population density. Overall, Virginia experienced a year-overyear increase in prices, with median price rising 1.9% to $249,000.
Mortgage interest rates continued to decrease in the first quarter of 2016 and
the Virginia unemployment rate reached a post-recession low in March. Both of
these indicators create a favorable context for home-buying. If inventory keeps
up with demand, this spring selling season may be one of the strongest Virginia
has seen since the recession.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2013
2014
2015
2016
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2013
5,528
5,922
7,460
8,669
10,483
10,810
10,389
10,154
8,185
7,950
6,949
7,559
2014
5,377
5,667
7,109
8,467
9,647
10,643
10,172
9,482
8,354
8,445
6,650
8,297
2015
5,777
6,058
8,488
9,122
10,366
12,680
11,818
10,202
9,560
8,862
7,014
8,739
2016
5,879
6,475
8,417
There were approximately 8,417 home sales in March 2016, mirroring the sales in March 2015. Since
the year-over-year difference is so small, it is important to note that closings are reported over time
and therefore the current count is likely to be lower than the actual number of sales in March. Sales
increased 33% from February to March of 2016 and Virginia can expect continued increases in monthto-month sales throughout the spring season, as long as the for-sale inventory keeps up demand.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
35,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
32,168
31,580
29,962
30,000
28,757
28,728
28,008
24,615
25,000
23,392
22,458
21,509
20,771
20,323
20,000
18,910
+2.2%
YOY
18,153
15,000
10,000
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Quarter
The number of home sales in the first quarter of 2016 was 2.2% higher than the number of sales in
the first quarter of 2015. First quarter sales are the lowest of the year but the year-over-year increase
indicates that the market continued to grow in the beginning of 2016. Annualized sales (page 6) also
indicate continued growth.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120,000
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
107,463
108,686 109,205
103,891
99,109
100,000
100,058 99,301
98,096
95,292
90,978
97,376
98,310
100,480
+8.7%
91,832
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter
shown. For example, the 2016-Q1 figure (109,205 sales) includes home sales from February 2015
through March 2016. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends
in Virginia’s housing market.
The annualized sales measure increased 8.7% over the past year. The first quarter of 2016 was the
sixth consecutive quarter of growth in this measure, however quarter-to-quarter increases are getting
smaller. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance
and growth in the residential real estate market. The continually decreasing unemployment rate, along
with decreasing interest rates may boost second-quarter sales, as long as for-sale inventory increases
along with demand.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Regional Changes in Sales
2015-Q1 vs. 2016-Q1 Units
Northern Virginia
+10.6%
Central Valley
+10.1%
Central Virginia
+0.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
+6.8%
Southwest Virginia
-5.3%
Hampton Roads /
Chesapeake Bay
+9.3%
Southside Virginia
-1.3%
Region
2015-Q1
2016-Q1
Central Valley
1,007
1,109
Central Virginia
3,419
3,429
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
4,851
5,304
Northern Virginia
7,733
8,550
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,627
1,737
Southside Virginia
374
369
Southwest Virginia
282
267
All of Virginia
19,293
20,765
The chart above compares 2015-Q1 sales reported by mid-April 2015 to 2016-Q1 sales reported as
of April 12, 2016, by region. This point-in-time comparison shows a larger increase in sales statewide than the numbers that are updated historically (page 5). The greatest year-over-year increases
in sales occurred in Northern Virginia, the Central Valley, and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay
region. The Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region experienced more modest increases in sales and
Central Virginia experienced a very minor increase. Southside Virginia, and Southwest Virginia both
experienced a year-over-year decrease in sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$350,000
$249,000
$255,000
$265,000
$259,990
$244,467
$255,000
$259,000
$267,000
$235,000
$249,000
$254,000
$233,000
$250,000
$241,000
Median Sales Price
$269,900
$300,000
+1.9%
$200,000
+6.9%
$150,000
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Quarter
The 2016-Q1 median sales price is 1.9% higher than the 2015-Q1 median sales price and 6.9% higher
than the 2013-Q1 median sales price. The 2016-Q1 median sales price is 2.4% lower than the 2015Q4 median price. This decrease from the fourth quarter to the first quarter is small compared to the
previous three years and the increase in median price from February to March was relatively high.
Relatively steep increases in price this spring may indicate that for-sale inventory is becoming limited.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices
2015-Q1 vs. 2016-Q1
Northern Virginia
+0.5%
Central Valley
+3.8%
Central Virginia
+2.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
-0.7%
Southwest Virginia
-10.8%
Southside Virginia
+9.0%
Hampton Roads /
Chesapeake Bay
+1.5%
Region
2015-Q1
2016-Q1
Central Valley
$200,000
$207,500
Central Virginia
$196,000
$200,000
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$202,000
$205,000
Northern Virginia
$365,000
$366,950
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$154,950
$153,900
Southside Virginia
$78,000
$85,000
Southwest Virginia
$110,750
$98,800
All of Virginia
$244,467
$249,000
Median sales price increased year-over-year throughout the state, with the exception of the Roanoke/
Lynchburg/Blacksburg region and Southwest Virginia. Year-over-year changes in median price were
essentially static in Northern Virginia and the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region. Southside
Virginia experienced the largest increase in price, but a small number of sales in Southside and
Southwest Virginia often makes fluctuation in median price more pronounced. Overall, changes in
price were relatively modest across all regions, in keeping with the moderate change in the median
price for the state.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B)
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
12
10.78
11
10.22
9.91
10
9.54
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9.30
9.06
9
7.82
8
7
6
7.40
6.93
6.45
6.34
6.21
5.50
5.36
+2.1% YOY
5
4
3
2
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over
the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2016 ($6.34B) increased 2.1%
over the first quarter of 2015 ($6.21B). The 2.1% year-over-year increase in sales volume reflects similar
changes in prices and the number of sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2015-Q1
$2M +
31
37
19%
$1.5M - $2M
58
60
3%
219
223
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
2%
510
509
$750K - $1M
2016-Q1
-0.2%
1,835
2,051
$500K - $750K
1,669
1,916
$400K - $500K
12%
15%
2,895
3,079
$300K - $400K
6%
4,539
$200K - $300K
5,074
12%
5,125
5,418
$100K - $200K
2,417
2,404
0 - $100K
0
500
6%
-1%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Year-over-year home sales in the first quarter of 2016 increased in nearly every category. Sales in
ranges below $750,000 represent the vast majority of transactions in Virginia and serve as the best
indicator of market performance. Sales decreased slightly in the lowest range (0-$100,000) and the
$750,000 to $1 million range, reflecting limited inventory.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Average Days On Market
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100
90
88
92
91
89
80
71
71
73
78
73
68
70
Average Days On Market
83
81
80
60
68
-6.4% YOY
50
40
30
20
10
0
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Quarter
Average days on the market decreased 6.4% year-over-year. The 2016-Q1 average is the lowest average
Virginia has experienced in the first quarter since the Great Recession. Low days on the market in the
first quarter when inventory is generally limited may be a sign of high demand, but also may indicate
that buyers are snapping up homes as they go on the market because inventory is especially limited.
Average days on the market increased from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016,
following the usual seasonal trend—for-sale units tend to linger on the market in the late winter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Monthly Residential Sales
VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
600,000
16,000
14,000
500,000
12,000
400,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
314,000
281,000
300,000
6,781
6,391
200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000
0
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15 (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p) Sep-15 (p) Oct-15 (p) Nov-15 (p) Dec-15 (p) Jan-16 (p)
0
Feb-16 (p)
The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales were similar to the changes in the pace of sales in the
United States as a whole in the first quarter of 2016. Note that national sales data has not yet been
released for March.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price
VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)
$350,000
$350,000
$300,000
$300,000
$250,000
$242,600
$237,750
$200,000
$210,800
$198,600
$150,000
$100,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
(p)
May-15
(p)
Jun-15
(p)
Jul-15
(p)
Aug-15
(p)
Sep-15
(p)
Oct-15
(p)
Nov-15
(p)
Dec-15
(p)
Jan-16
(p)
Feb-16
(p)
$100,000
The Virginia median sales price fluctuated more than the median of existing-home sale prices in the
United States as a whole in the first two months of 2016. Virginia experienced a more pronounced
decrease from December to January, after a more pronounced increase from November to December
of 2015. Virginia experienced a typical increase in prices from January to February of 2016, while the
U.S. experienced a decrease.
*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family
sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Virginia Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
5.8%
5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.3%
5.2%
4.9%
4.8%
4.9%
4.7%
4.8%
4.2%
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
4.1%
2016-Q1
2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.
Unemployment Rates by State,
Seasonally Adjusted, March 2015
(U.S. rate = 5.0 percent)
9.0% and over
8.0% to 8.9%
7.0% to 7.9%
6.0% to 6.9%
5.0% to 5.9%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
4.0% to 4.9%
3.9% or below
The United States unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% from November 2015 to March of
2016. Many states’unemployment rates improved, while a few states experienced higher unemployment
rates. The Virginia rate decreased by one-tenth of a percentage point from November to February. The
Virginia unemployment rate decreased to 4% in March, the lowest Virginia has experienced since July
of 2008.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates
Source: FreddieMac
4.6%
4.44%
4.4%
4.30%
4.2%
4.36%
4.23%
4.14%
4.0%
3.97%
3.8%
3.6%
3.4%
3.72%
3.69%
3.83%
3.95%
3.90%
3.74%
3.50%
3.2%
3.0%
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
3.1%
3.1%
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
2016-Q1
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates
Source: FreddieMac
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
3.0%
3.1%
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
3.0%
2.9%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2016-Q1
Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates decreased from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first
quarter of 2016. The average 30-year mortgage interest rate decreased more substantially and since
this is the rate that the vast majority of home-buyers will be able to take advantage of, its decrease may
have triggered increased sales of more modestly-priced homes in the first quarter. Decreasing interest
rates will continue to encourage potential buyers.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2016-Q1
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia,
representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate
business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents
the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate
professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict
Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:
Martin Johnson
Virginia Association of REALTORS®
[email protected]
804-249-5708
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 16