GLOBEFORM`S FREE WEEKEND SPECIAL
Transcription
GLOBEFORM`S FREE WEEKEND SPECIAL
GLOBEFORM'S FREE WEEKEND SPECIAL compliments of Brisnet.com & Globeform Saturday 16th April 2011 Arkansas Derby favorite The Factor Photo © Jeff Coady Greenham Stakes, Newbury Blue Grass Stakes & Jenny Wiley S, Keeneland Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park Globeform's Top 5 Kentucky Derby 137 Globeform Ratings Kentucky Derby winners 1992 – 2010 Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Race 4 Newbury GLOBEFORM RATINGS GREENHAM STAKES (G3) Newbury 16 April 2011 – 7 furlongs Turf 126p 111p 102 100p ..95p ..94p FRANKEL (Galileo) STRONG SUIT (Rahy) VANGUARD DREAM (Oasis Dream) EXCELEBRATION (Exceed And Excel) SHROPSHIRE (Shamardal) PICTURE EDITOR (Dansili) H Cecil R Hannon R Hannon M Botti B Hills Henry Cecil T Queally R Hughes R Moore A Kirby M Hills I Mongan __ _ _ _______________ GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS A: 2 FRANKEL C: 5 STRONG SUIT __ _ _ _______________ GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS FRANKEL, a brilliant juvenile champion who won all of his four races in great style last year, is a heavy favourite for this classic. A son of dual Derby winner Galileo, he is out of a sprinting mare, and he showed plenty of speed in his first season. His best performance came when he slammed Klammer by 10 lengths in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) over a mile at Ascot in September. Frankel had won a maiden at Newmarket and a conditions race at Doncaster on his previous starts, and he absolutely hacked up at Ascot, beating Klammer out of sight. Klammer went on to win the Horris Hill Stakes (G3) on his next outing. In mid-October, Frankel was ready for his first Group One race, the prestigious Dewhurst Stakes (G1) over a straight 7 furlongs at Newmarket's Rowley Mile course – the venue for the Guineas. His main rival based on previous form, Dream Ahead, ran well below his best and that took some of the gloss off of Frankel's performance. He was pulling early in the race, and never really settled, but when Queally let him loose it was soon all over. Frankel quickened up to win the Dewhurst by 2 ¼ lengths from the Irish trained 25-1 shot Roderic O'Connor, with another Irish colt, Glor Na Mara (33-1) in third. It seemed that he had beaten rather ordinary rivals on the day but Roderic O'Connor gave the form a nice boost when winning the Criterium International (G1) at Saint-Cloud two weeks later. The Guineas favourite, reportedly much more settled in his work at home this year, has had the Greenham pencilled in as his seasonal debut for some time, and he will probably win this Guineas prep without too much fuss. Frankel may also be a contender for the Investec Derby (G1) at Epsom in June, and he holds an entry for the Dante Stakes (G2) at York in May – normally the strongest Derby prep in England. Will he stay the Derby distance? It is not impossible. His half-brother Bullet Train won a weak edition of the Lingfield Derby Trial (G3) last year, and it is also interesting to note that last year's Irish Derby winner, Cape Blanco, is also a son of Galileo out of a sprinting dam. >>> Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Greenham Stakes >>> STRONG SUIT was visually impressive when getting up to pip Elzaam in a thrilling finish to the Coventry Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot last June – when he overcamne trouble in running and delivered a furious kick to win by a nose. He had previously won a Newbury maiden in good style (beating Neebras by 1 ¼ lengths) and Strong Suit was favourite at Ascot. He went on to run another good race in the Phoenix Stakes (G1) at The Curragh in Ireland, where he was beaten less than a length in third behind Zoffany. Finally, he met Dream Ahead, and ecountered testing ground, in the Middle Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket in October. Strong Suit managed second but ran below form, as hea passed the post 9 lengths behind Dream Ahead. All of Strong Suit's runs last year came over 6 furlongs but he will ha no trouble getting seven, and he is the most likely horse for the exacta bet here. He is currently a 20-1 shot for the 2,000 Guineas. Worth knowing... Trainer Richard Hannon has saddled four of the last nine winners of this race. GLOBEFORM RATINGS 2010 GREENHAM STAKES (G3) Globeform Jockey / Trainer 1 – DICK TURPIN (Arakan) 2 – Canford Cliffs (Tagula) 3 – Arcano (Oasis Dream) GF 112p GF 111p GF 97 Ryan Moore / Richard Hannon th Winner's previous run: 6 Dewhurst Stakes (G1) 7 furlongs Newmarket 17 Oct 2009 Globeform picks Dubai World Cup winner at 18-1 What a day for Globeform members at Meydan! Three Globeform winners! VICTOIRE PISA 18-1 international pool! SKYSURFERS 6-1 with the bookmakers PRESVIS 5-1 with the bookmakers followed by... Santa Anita Derby: MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE 13-1 Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Race 8 Keeneland GLOBEFORM RANKING JENNY WILEY STAKES (G2) Keeneland 16 April 2011 – 1 1/16 miles Turf Top ranked horses on 100, with others ranked down in pounds One length = 2lb over this distance. Horses presented with sire, best Globeform rating, trainer, jockey 100 100 100 ..99 ..99 ..98 ..98 ..95 ..94 ..92 ..91 ..90 ECLAIR DU LUNE (Marchand de Sable) FANTASIA (Sadler's Wells) MISS KELLER (Montjeu) AVIATE (Dansili) ZAGORA (Green Tune) NEVER RETREAT (Smart Strike) C.S. SILK (Medaglia d'Oro) GYPSY'S WARNING (Mogok) SATANS QUICK CHICK (Sky Mesa) KISS MINE (Mineshaft) FOREST UPROAR (Forest Wildcat) ICE MIST (Forest Danger) GF 114 GF 114 GF 114 GF 113p GF 113 GF 114 GF 112 GF 115p GF 108 GF 106 GF 105 GF 104 R McAnally J Sheppard R Attfield W Mott C Brown C Block D Romans G Motion E Reed D Vance M Frostad B Flint J Alvarado R Napravnik J Velazquez K Desormeaux J Leparoux S Bridgmohan G Gomez J Rosario B Creed ** R Maragh A Garcia J Castanon GF 105 GF ? J Carrol E Reed J Graham B Creed ** Also Eligible: ..91 …? VALLI WITH A VOW (Broken Vow) SPRING PARTY (Smart Strike) GLOBEFORM RATINGS 2010 JENNY WILEY STAKES (G2) Globeform Jockey / Trainer 1 – WASTED TEARS (Najran) 2 – Forever Together (Belong to Me) 3 – Hot Cha Cha (Cactus Ridge) GF 116p GF 113 GF 111 Rajiv Maragh / Bart Evans Winner's previous run: Won Honey Fox Stakes (G3), 1 mile Turf, Gulfstream Park 20 Feb Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Race 9 Keeneland GLOBEFORM RATINGS BLUE GRASS STAKES (G1) Keeneland 16 April 2011 – 1 1/8 miles Polytrack Horses presented with best Globeform rating, sire, trainer, jockey. All runners carry 123lb. 111p 107p 107p 103 102 100p 100 ..99p ..99p ..98p ..96 …? SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway) KING CONGIE (Badge of Silver) WILLCOX INN (Harlan's Holiday) JOES BLAZING ARON (Graeme Hall) BRILLIANT SPEED (Dynaformer) SENSATIONAL SLAM (Grand Slam) WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid) QUEEN'SPLATEKITTEN (Kitten's Joy) NEWSDAD (Arch) CRIMSON CHINA (Giant's Causeway) TWINSPIRED (Harlan's Holiday) PRAETERO (Giant's Causeway) E Kenneally T Albertrani M Stidham M Maker T Albertrani T Pletcher N Howard T Pletcher W Mott G Motion M Maker T Pletcher J Leparoux R Maragh R Napravnik G Gomez J Rosario J Lezcano J Theriot J Velazquez J Castanon A Garcia R Albarado E Prado __ _ _ _______________ GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS A: 3 SANTIVA B: 8 WILLCOX INN C: 2 KING CONGIE __ _ _ _______________ GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS SANTIVA could be the forgotten one in the Kentucky Derby picture. He produced a game performance when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last year and ran a good race for second, 1 ½ lengths behind Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), at the Fair Grounds - when giving the winner six pounds. His run there was worth Globeform 111p, the same mark he achieved at Churchill as a juvenile. There could be more to come from this guy, who's already with his third trainer - from McPeek and Pletcher to Keannelly, what a story it would be if he succeeds at the top level. Before connections can start dreaming of a trip to Louisville in May he has to come through the Blue Grass in style, preferably with a win, and there is a lot to like about the son of Giant's Causeway in this field. In fact, anyone keen on a longshot future bet on the Derby can do worse than taking the 33-1 some bookmakers offer about Santiva. In all probability, that price will tumble after Saturday's racing. Santiva first came to the fore when by second, beaten 4 lengths by J.B.'s Thunder, when still a maiden in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall (Willcox Inn was 1 ½ lengths behind him in third). Santiva had raced twice previously without winning but, quite interestingly, was no bigger than 6-1 in the Futurity betting. He ran on well, after not having the smoothest of runs, and his performance marked big improvement on two placed efforts at Saratoga. Santiva proved that it was no fluke when shipping to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Club seven weeks later. Racing with great zest, he was always in the first two in this 8.5-furlong event, and took the lead at halfway. Astrology, the odds-on favorite, tried to close him down in the stretch but failed, as Santiva kept on well and held him by half a length. Astrology finished 2 lengths ahead of the third placed Major Gain. Astrology was coming off a nice win in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) on his previous start and Major Gain (who had been fifth in the Breeders' Futuriy) previously won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3). The form >> Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 >> looked quite solid. Santiva's first run this year was also one with sound formlines attached to it. Going down by 1 ½ lengths while conceding 6lb to Much Macho Man was no mean feat. Mucho Macho Man held fitness advantage, having run fourth to Dialed In in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), and he went on to finish a good third behind Pants on Fire and Nehro in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Santiva's form stands out in this edition of the Blue Grass. He is the class act in the lineup, he is proven over the track, he should find the trip to his liking, he can improve, and he is our selection. WILLCOX INN is likely to improve, having shown very smart form already on his second start as a juvenile and made a satifactory seasonal debut to take second behind Great Mills in the Grindstone at Fair Grounds in March. It is his juvenile form that makes him interesting. After winning a good maiden at Arlington Park in September – beating the future stakes winner Animal Kingdom by a length – he was stepped right up in company to race in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in Octobert. Willcox Inn was never seen with a serious winning chance but he ran on in fine style at the finish to take third, 5 ½ lengths behind J.B.'s Thunder and he was 1 ½ lengths behind the runner-up Santiva. The winner went for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs (finished eighth), while Willcox Inn was switched to the lawn and ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2). Going off at 23-1 to one, he continued his progress and another game finish brought him up to third behind Pluck and Soldat. He was beaten just 5 ½ lengths by the winner and had some accomplished names behind. It was obvious that Willcox Inn was a stakes winner in the making, and he will be an interesting horse to follow this summer. He is 10-1 on the Blue Grass morning line and that is too big. KING CONGIE showed signs of inexperience when drifting out quite badly in the straight in Hallandale Beach Stakes on turf at Gulfstream Park in early February. He made it to the wire a head in front of Master Dunker, with Brilliant Speed a neck behind in third. Interference had taken place, however, and King Congie was disqualified and placed third. An off-the-pace winner of the Tropical Park Derby at Calder on New Year's Day, he is proven over 9 furlongs, and this Badge of Silver colt is open to further improvement. Receiving 4lb from Santiva, he looks a bit of a threat and is an obvious choice for those looking to fill Exacta and Trifecta plans. Worth knowing... Previously staged over a speed favoring dirt track, the Blue Grass was first run on Polytrack in 2007, when 8-1 shot Dominican upset the eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. The last seven Blue Grass favorites were all beaten. The biggest upset came last year, when Stately Victor won at 40-1. GLOBEFORM RATINGS 2010 BLUE GRASS STAKES (G1) Globeform Jockey / Trainer 1 – STATELY VICTOR (Ghostzapper) 2 – Paddy O'Prado (El Prado) 3 – First Dude (Stephen Got Even) GF 114p GF 105p GF 103p A Garcia / M Maker Winner's previous run: 5th Allowance race, 1 1/16 miles Turf, Gulfstream Park 7 March Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Coming up at Brisnet.com. Kentucky Oaks & Derby by April 29! Get 4 races in one report for one low price! Royal Ascot Special Newmarket July Special Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Race 11 Oaklawn Park GLOBEFORM RANKING ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) Oaklawn Park 16 April 2011 – 1 1/8 miles dirt Top ranked horse on 100, with others ranked down in pounds One length = 2lb over this distance. Horses presented with sire, best Globeform rating, trainer, jockey 100 ..98 ..98 ..94 ..91 ..91 ..91 ..90 ..86 …? ..85 ..84 …? THE FACTOR (War Front) GF 115p J P's GUSTO (Successful Appeal) GF 113* SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) GF 109p NEHRO (Mineshaft) GF 105p ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) GF 106 ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) GF 102p CALEB'S POSSE (Posse) GF 106 BRETHREN (Distorted Humor) GF 105p ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex) GF 101p DANCE CITY (City Zip) GF ?p J W BLUE (Sky Mesa) GF 96 SARATOGA RED (Eddington) GF 95p TRUMAN'S COMMANDER (Friends Lake) GF ? B Baffert J Petalino J Bonde S Asmussen W Fires D Von Hemel D Von Hemel T Pletcher T Ritchey T Pletcher A Dutrow D Wayne Lukas N Zito M Garcia M Berry P Valenzuela C Nakatani J Court S Quinonez E Razo Jr R Dominguez C Borel J Castellano J Rocco T Thompson I Ocampo *) J.P.'s Gusto – Globeform 113 in Sep. 2010 / GF 104p in 2011 __ _ _ ___________________________ GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS A: B: C: D: 4 THE FACTOR 6 SWAY AWAY 2 NEHRO, 10 J P's GUSTO 1A ALTERNATION, 5 BRETHREN __ _ _ ___________________________ GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS THE FACTOR is the logical favorite in the Arkansas Derby, after his strong 6 1/4-length win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at this venue last month. That was over 1 1/16 miles but the way this gray Baffert horse ran on suggests that stretching out to 1 1/8 miles will not be a problem. He certainly wasn't stopping as he hit the wire that day. After setting the early pace, The Factor quickened right away from his rival at the top of the lane, and the Smarty Jones winner Caleb's Posse was a remote second, beating Archarcharch by a neck for the place. Arcarcharch was coming off a win in the Southwest Stakes (G3) a month earlier. This win gave The Factor more future options, and all of a sudden a race called the Kentcky Derby was one of them. His speedy running style is hardly ideal for 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs but he has a good chance of pulling off his third win of the year in the Arkansas Derby. The son of War Front had looked more of a sprinter when taking the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita in February, when he also led from gate to wire and won by ¾ length from Sway Away. Premier Pegasus, an impressive winner of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) next time out, was third. Class counts for a lot in this game and The Factor can probably restore some normality on the Triple Crown trail by becoming a winning chalk of a key Kentucky Derby prep. If he wins this in good style, he may be vying for favoritsm on May 7, though running 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs is an altogether different ballgame. >>> Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Arkansas Derby >>> SWAY AWAY produced an excellent finish to take second behind The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and, although he disappointed when only sixth in the Rebel (lost a tooth), he might be the biggest danger to the favorite. Stretching out to 9 furlongs will suit him so well, and Sway Away is quite an exciting prospect. Don't forget that he was just ¾ length behind The Factor in the San Vicente, after coming with a game and strong run from off the pace. That was only his third career start. Sway Away is bred to stay, and so far he has shown a nice mix of both speed and stamina. He is still very inexperienced, having run second to J P's Gusto in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) on his second career start. Potentially a big improver, Sway Away might produce a good performance here and he should be in the mix. J P's GUSTO has had the Arkansas Derby as his main target ever since moving trainers at the end of 2010, from David Hofmans to Joe Petalino. He was one of the best juveniles in California last year, winning the Best Pal Stakes (G2) – by half a length from the far less experienced Sway Away – and the Del Mar Futurity (G1) – by 4 ½ lengths from Jaycito, who turned the tables on J P's Gusto when they clashed again in the Norfolk Stakes (G1) at Hollywood Park in October. He never got into the race when a remote sixth to Uncle Mo at the Breeders' Cup but bounced back with a a staying-on second to Comma to the Top in the CashCall Futurity (G1) back at Hollywood Park in December. That run, and his second to Archarcharch in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park in February, suggested that J.P.'s Gusto might be a horse wanting a stamina test – despite being bred along rather speedy lines. It was disappointing, therefore, to see him put in a dull effort in the Rebel Stakes (G2). He passed the post in seventh place, beaten a long way behind The Factor. We should never dismiss a horse based on one poor run though, and J P's Gusto's best form makes him a player in this race. Morning line 15-1 seems big and he must be included in the exotics. NEHRO, with just four career starts and an eyecatching run in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Feir Grounds in March, looks very interesting for Exacta / Trifecta purposes. Trained by Steve Asmussen, this son of Mineshaft put in a really game effort last time out. He was staying on from just off the pace and lost by no more than a neck to Pants on Fire. Mucho Macho Man (winner of the Risen Star) finished third, half a length behind Nehro. He had been an easy 4 1/2-length winner of a mile maiden at Oaklawn Park in February and stepping up to 1 1/8 miles suited Nehro well in the Louisiana Derby. He gained vital experience, showed markedly improved form, and he looks set to get a slice of the purse in the Arkansas Derby. BRETHREN: Given that he had beaten Watch Me Go so easily in the Sam Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in February, it was puzzling to see Brethren lose so tamely to the same horse in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – when he seemed not to stay the trip. Based on breeding, stamina should not be a problem and the 8-5-furlong distance was the same as in the Sam Davis. He was too keen early on in the Tampa Bay Derby though, and perhaps something was amiss on the day. The son of Distorted Humor has looked pretty smart on a couple of occasions and must be considered a candidate for the Trifecta fillers. Pletcher will reportedly try him with half cup blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, a race his half-brother Super Saver lost enroute to winning the Run for The Roses. ALTERNATION steps up in class, following a comfortable 3 1/4-length win when favorite in an 8.5-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in February. He had beaten Elite Alex by a head to win an optional claimer over a mile at Oaklawn Park in January, and he won a maiden at Remington Park by 7 lengths in December. Altention (coupled with Caleb's Posse in the betting) has made excellent progress through his four starts to date, and he seems sure to improve again. Caleb's Posse is 5lb worse off at the weights with The Factor, who beat him by 6 ¼ lengths in the Rebel, and he was also readily beaten by Archarcharch, J P's Gusto and Elite Alex in the Southwest, and is thus hard to fancy. Alternation looks the strongest part of this entry. ELITE ALEX is a contender that has moved up slightly on the rankings, much based on two of his rivals in the Southwest franking the form in the Rebel. Southwest winner Arcarcharch took third, while Caleb's Posse (6th in Soutwest) improved to take second behind The Factor. Elite Alex stayed on well for third in the Southwest, only his third career outing, and he was staying on late again to take fourth in the Louisiana Derby (from a wide post). More experience and longer trips may help him move forward again. Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 Worth knowing... This year's edition of the Arkansas Derby is only the second carrying Grade One status. Top class runners Curlin (2007) and Afleet Alex (2005) both won this prep, and later on won the Preakness Stakes (Curlin was beaten in the Kentucky Derby, while Afleet Alex did not run at Churchill). Smarty Jones, who landed the Arkansas Derby / Kentucky Derby double in 2004, also won the Preakness Stakes. GLOBEFORM RATINGS 2010 ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) Globeform Jockey / Trainer 1 – LINE OF DAVID (Lion Heart) 2 – Super Saver (Maria's Mon) 3 – Dublin (Afleet Alex) GF 108p GF 111p GF 110 Jon Court / John Sadler Winner's previous run: Won Allowance race, 1 mile Turf, Santa Anita 11 March GLOBEFORM RATINGS TOP 5 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS 125p 123p 122p 116p 115p - UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) DIALED IN (Mineshaft) SHACKLEFORD (Forestry) SOLDAT (War Front) THE FACTOR (War Front) T Pletcher N Zito D Romans K McLaughlin B Baffert Globeform's Weekend Special 16 April 2011 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS 1992 – 2010 WITH GLOBEFORM RATINGS ACHIEVED AT CHURCHILL DOWNS 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 - SUPER SAVER (Birdstone) MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) BIG BROWN (Boundary) STREET SENSE (Street Cry) BARBARO (Dynaformer) GIACOMO (Holy Bull) SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality) FUNNY CIDE (Distorted Humor) WAR EMBLEM (Our Emblem) MONARCHOS (Maria’s Mon) FUSAICHI PEGASUS (Mr Prospector) GF 120 GF 123 GF 130 GF 127p GF 127p GF 119 GF 128p GF 123p GF 124p GF 129 GF 127 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 - CHARISMATIC (Summer Squall) REAL QUIET (Quiet American) SILVER CHARM (Silver Buck) GRINDSTONE (Unbridled) THUNDER GULCH (Gulch) GO FOR GIN (Cormorant) SEA HERO (Polish Navy) LIL E TEE (At theTreshold) GF 121 GF 124 GF 122p GF 121p GF 123 GF 122 GF 120p GF 119 Ranked by Globeform ratings GF 130 - BIG BROWN (Boundary) 2008 GF 129 - MONARCHOS (Maria’s Mon) 2001 GF 128 – SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality) 2004 GF 127 - BARBARO (Dynaformer) 2006 GF 127 - FUSAICHI PEGASUS (Mr Prospector) 2000 GF 127 - STREET SENSE (Street Cry) 2007 GF 124 - REAL QUIET (Quiet American) 1998 GF 124 - WAR EMBLEM (Our Emblem) 2002 GF 123 - FUNNY CIDE (Distorted Humor) 2003 GF 123 - MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) 2009 GF 123 - THUNDER GULCH (Gulch) 1995 GF 122 - GO FOR GIN (Cormorant) 1994 GF 122 - SILVER CHARM (Silver Buck) 1997 GF 121 - CHARISMATIC (Summer Squall) 1999 GF 121 - GRINDSTONE (Unbridled) 1996 GF 120 - SEA HERO (Polish Navy) 1993 GF 120 - SUPER SAVER (Birdstone) 2010 GF 119 - GIACOMO (Holy Bull) 2005 GF 119 - LIL E TEE (At theTreshold) 1992 © Copyright 2011 Geir Stabell / Globeform. 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