Michael E. Greene Av. Brasil, 403 Vila Novo Horizonte

MichaelE.Greene
Av.Brasil,403
VilaNovoHorizonte-IpixunadoPará,Para,Brasil-CEP:68.637-000
[email protected]
1-616-773-2822
Title:
AmazondroughtsnowandinthefuturecauserecordhighTidesalongthe
SoutheasternUSSeaboard
Author:
MichaelGreene
Affiliation:
BrazilAgForLLC
Publication:
BrazilAgForWebsite
Published:
January6,2016
Abstract
SeveralclimatemodelspredictintenserainfallreductionsaroundtheAmazonBasinoverthe
nextcentury.AnalyzingthecurrentsixyearreductionofrainfallanddroughtintheEastern
andSouthernAmazon,isthebestavailablemeanstoinvestigatethedisplacementofwater
fromtheAmazonBasinintotheAtlanticOcean,andhowthisdisplacementwillaffectthe
AtlanticOceanandTidelevels.ThiswillhelpusbetterprepareandunderstandfutureAmazon
droughtsandtheireffects,alongtheAtlanticsoutheastUSseaboard.Duringthelastsixyears
therehavebeen,oncalmnights,recordtidesthatareevenhigherthanrecordedhurricane
leveltidesincertainregionsalongthesoutheastseaboard.Thishypothesiswasonly
formulatedbasedonregionaldatafromtheeasternAmazon,inordertodeterminethe
decreaseinmoistureenteringtheAmazonfromtheAtlantic.Withthecurrentdata,thereis
conclusiveproofthattheAmazonhasaneffectonAtlanticOceanlevels.Basedontheinitial
hypothesisandlimitedsamplingdata,theeffectsontheAtlanticOceanduetoshortterm
droughtis2.2cmto8.9cminoceanrise.
Furtherresearchisnecessarytohaveafullcomprehensiveunderstanding.Thisresearch
wouldreviewallregionsthatbordertheAmazonBasin,whicharethefirstpointsofentryfor
moistureintotheAmazonfromtheAtlanticandtodeterminehowmuchlesswaterhas
enteredandhowmuchhasleftduetoevapotranspiration.Inaddition,furtherdataisneeded
todetermineexactAmazonRiverflowratesoverthelastfiveyearstodeterminehowmuch
lessvolume(belowthenormal209,000m3/s)hasenteredtheAtlanticduetoalowerrainfall
indexthathasenteredtheAmazonfromAtlanticevaporation.
Article
Thereareseveralfactorsofclimatechangethatarenotfullyunderstood,orhavesimplynever
beenexploredindepth.Atleastoneclimatemodelspredictsthatoceanlevelrisewillbethe
majorcatastrophicconsequencefromawarmingplanet.Mostofthecurrentmodelsblame
thisincreaseofwaterintheoceanonglaciers,withGreenlandasthemainsourceofnew
waterenteringtheocean,andtheothercauseduetowarmingtemperatures,causingocean
expansionandraisingsealevels.Therehavebeennumerouslessknownclimatemodelssuch
asonethatstatesthattheiceinthearcticregionincreasestheregionsgravitythuspulling
watertothearcticfromthelowerlatitudes,asthisgravitydecreasesduetolessice,this
resultsinequatorialregionstohavemorewater.Anotherlessknowntheoryisonethatstates
thatlandmasseswillriseinthepolesastheicemeltsduetolessweightandthiswilldisplace
watertootherregions.Therearemanytheories;thisarticleisforaneworiginaltheorythat
statestheAmazonforesthasaneffectonsealevel,primarilyintheAtlanticOceanalongthe
southeasternUSseaboard.Thefollowingexploresthishypothesiswiththehopetogain
tractionforamoredetailedanalysis.
AkeypointisthatGreenlandoverthelastdecadehasraisedoceanlevelsbynearlyaninch,
andtheAmazon’soutflowofwaterhasahigherrateofflowthanalltheriversofGreenland
goingintotheocean.
Introduction
SoutheasternSeaboardoftheUnitedStates,2015
In2015,fromVirginiatoMiami,therehavebeenreported“record”hightidesoncalmnights.
ThesetidescameontheSuperBloodMoon,butalsoduringothertimesunrelatedtothe
SuperBloodMoongravitationalphenomenon.Manyregionsreported12to18incheshigher
andmanyofthetideswereatrecordheightrivalingonlyhurricanelevels.Miamihasbeen
affectedonatleast6differentoccasions,withthestreetsofMiamiBeachflooding.The
phenomenonoftheSuperBloodMooninMiamiwassohigh,thatfishswaminthestreets,
theseeventsreportedintheMiamiHerald.Itwasreportedthatscientistfactoredinthe
glaciersdischargingmillionsofcubicmetersofwaterintotheoceanandtheoceanexpansion
duetoheat;howevertheoceanleveladditionalheightwas“double”thescientistpredictions.
AmazonBasinandtheregionsaroundtheAmazonBasinasof2015
Overthelastsixyears,theAmazonBasinandtheregionsoutheastoftheAmazonBasinhave
beenexperiencingdroughtandlowerrainfallconditions.Thisisinanareathatcoversthe
7,000,000squarekmoftheAmazonBasinanditcoverstheregionsoutheastoftheAmazonin
theBrazilianstatesofMinasGerais,RiodeJaneiro,SaoPaulo,EspiritoSantosandpartsofthe
statesofGoias,BahiaandTocantinsforanadditional1,500,000squarekmaffected.Inthis
timeasofOctober2015,theAmazonRiverhaddropped21feetinsomeparts.ManyAffluent
riversthroughouttheAmazonaretoolowforbargeandboattraffic.Inthestateslisted
above,drinkingwater,irrigationforfarming,farmersdependingonrainwithoutprofit,large
reservoirsandrivershavebeendepletedarelowerordriedout.Inaddition,majordrinking
waterreservoirsaroundSaoPaulocityareatlessthan10%capacity.
Hypothesis
ThelastsixyearsofdroughtintheAmazonhasnotpulledwateroutoftheAtlanticatthe
normalrate,however,thisregionhasdriedoutviadrainingofthecomplexnetworkofrivers.
ThispullingfromtheAtlanticanddischargebacktotheAtlanticisnormallyatbalance.This
waterthatnormallywouldbeabsorbedbackintotheAmazonregionviaevaporationand
precipitationhasremainedintheocean.Thewaterintheoceanhasnotevaporated,
remainingintheAtlantic,ithasnothadtimetospreadoutevenlythroughoutalltheoceans,
andhasnotbeenabletobeabsorbedviaevaporationandprecipitationintootherpartsofthe
world,asofDecember31,2015.Basedonmathfromregionaldatapoints,thiswillresultin
AtlanticOceanLevelrise,beforeitcanbedisplacedtootheroceansat2.2to8.9cm(0.86to
3.5inches).
CalculationsfortheHypothesis
TodeterminehowmuchwaterisleavingtheAmazon,Isourcedthenumber209,000cubic
meters(m3)persecondastheflowrate.TodeterminetheyearlydischargeIcalculate:
209,000m3/sX60minX60Sec.X24hoursX365days=6,591,024,000,000m3
TheAtlanticOceanis106,900,000squareKilometers.Todeterminethesquaremetersofthe
Atlantic:
106,900,000squarekilometersX1,000,000SquareMeters=106,900,000,000,000
squaremeters.
TodetermineheightwhenspreadoutthroughouttheAtlantic:
6,591,024,000,000m3/106,900,000,000,000m2x100cm=6.21cm.
IftheAmazonweretodischargeintotheAtlanticOceanoveraperiodofoneyear,withoutany
waterenteringtheAmazonfromtheOcean,theoceanlevelswouldriseapproximately6.21
cmwithfactorforerror.ObviouslytheAmazonforestdidabsorbmostofthiswaterback,
however6.21cmisanexampleofhowmuchtheAmazonRivercouldaffecttheoceanifnone
ofitwasabsorbedbackinto.Toprovethehypothesisandtodetermineactualsealevelrise,I
mustdetermine(1)howmuchwaterdidnotgointotheAmazonoverthelastsixyears,(2)
howmuchwaterisheldintheAmazonbasinand(3)theregionsaffectedby
evapotranspirationfromtheAmazonand(4)anyrestrictedflowratesduetotheAmazon
havinglesswater.
TheRefinedCalculationstoDetermineAtlanticOceanSealevelriseduetotheAmazon
drought
Todeterminesealevelrise,Ibasethefollowingcalculationsonhowmuchlesswaterthe
AmazonispullinginfromtheAtlantic.
IknowtheAmazonbasinitselfabsorbsatleast6,591,024,000,000m3.Thiswouldequateto
about94cmofrainfallintheAmazonBasinabsorbedfromtheAtlanticeachyear,whatcanbe
consideraverylowamount.
Todetermine94cm:
CalculationtoshowhowmanysquaremetersisintheAmazon:
7,000,000squarekilometersX1,000,000m2=7,000,000,000,000m2intheAmazon.
m2=squaremeters
1squarekm=1,000,000squaremeters
CalculationtoshowtheamountofrainfallintheAmazonfromtheoceaneachyear,ifspread
evenlyacrosstheentireAmazonregion:
6,591,024,000,000m3÷7,000,000,000,000m2x100cm=94cmofrainfallperyear.
m3=cubicmeters
TherainfallperiodoccurmostlyfromNovembertoMay,withonlyabout20%oftherainfall
takingplaceinthedryseason.ThismeansthatmuchoftheraininentireAmazontakesplace
overaperiodof6to7months.
SomescientisthaveconfirmedtheAmazonrainfallatbetween150cmto300cm,andthey
statethathalfoftherainfallintheAmazonisfromevapotranspiration,whichmeansthatitis
beingevaporatedfromthetrees,thesoils,theland,andnotcomingfromtheocean.This
meansthatatanygiventime,theAmazonBasinisholdingwaterinthetrees,soils,rivers,air,
cloudsandlakes,foratotalof188cmofwateracrossavastareaof7,000,000,000,000m3.
ThiswouldplacetheAmazonrainfallatanaverageof188cmperyearthroughouttheentire
basin.
94cmfromtheAtlantic+94cmretainedasevapotranspiration=188cmtotalrainfall.
ThisamountofwaterisimmenseandwouldmeanthatAmazonholdsatanygiventimean
amountequalto13,182,048,000,000m3ofwaterinitsnormalcycle,howeverthisamountis
mostlikelynotthetotalwatertiedintotheAmazon.
188cmisareasonableamountofwatertobetiedintheAmazon.Itwouldbeinthemoisture
intheair,clouds,trees,soil,andthevastriversthataremileswide,thousandsofmileslong
andinsomecaseshundredsoffeetdeep.
AlternativeTheories–sometheoriesbelievethatitisthesamewaterbetween
evapotranspirationandevaporation,thusthecycleismuchfaster,wherethewatercomesin
duringthestartoftherainyseasonandthecycleends12monthslater.Duringthisprocess,
theabsolutemaxamountofwaterinthesystemwillbetheexactamountleaving;the
6,591,024,000,000wouldbetheonlyamount.However,itisimplausiblethatthisamountis
themaximumamounttiedintotheAmazonasthiswouldmeanthatthewaterwouldbe
requiredtobemovingatalltimeandwouldstressthesystem.Evenifthiswasthetotal
amountitstillwouldcausetheAtlanticOceanlevelstorise.
AdditionalwatertiedtotheAmazonSpongethatleavestheAmazonviaEvapotranspiration.
OnFigure1(below)isamapoftheAmazonbasin.Themapshowsthetwotrajectories,1.In
blue,theinflowofwaterfromtheoceanintotheAmazonand2.Ingreen,thetrajectoryof
evapotranspirationofwatertakenfromtheAmazonbasin,whichprecipitatesintothenonAmazonbasinregionsofMinasGerais,Goias,WestBahia,Tocantins,RiodeJaneiroand
EspiritoSanto.Thegreenarearepresentsaregionofabout1,500,000squarekmorabout
1,500,000,000,000m2.Forconservativepurposesofcalculations,webasetheregionononly
1,000,000squarekm,assomepartsofMinasGerais,andBahiaarenaturallymoredryareas.
1,000,000squarekmx1,000,000=1,000,000,000,000m2fortheregion.
TherainfallinthispartialAgriculture,cattleandEucalyptusregionhasapproximateannual
rainfallof100to150cm.Foranalysisandconservativecalculation,Ihavealsoreducedthe
regionto90cmofrainfall.Thiswouldresultinanadditional900,000,000,000m3ofrainthat
iscomingmostlyfromtheAmazonregionviaevapotranspiration.
90cmx1,000,000,000,000m2=900,000,000,000m3
Thus,thismeansthattheAmazonbasinhasanadditional900,000,000,000m3enteringfrom
theAtlantic,andleavingtheAmazonthroughthesoutheast,whichthenfallsintodifferent
riverbasin,mainlytheSaoFranciscoBasin.Ifweassumethat900,000,000,000m3isconstant
and900,000,000,000m3isenteringthenthereisatotalof1,800,000,000,000m3totaltied
intothisprocess.ThisraisesoceanabsorptionlevelsbytheAmazonto7,491,024,000,000
m3peryear.Inaddition,ashalfisrainfallinthesystemalready,thisbringsthetotalterrestrial
waterintheAmazonbasinto16,782,048,000,000m3.
TocalculatethewaterenteringtheAmazoneachYear:
6,591,024,000,000m3+900,000,000,000m3=7,491,024,000,000m3.
TocalculatethetotalterrestrialwaterheldintheAmazonatanygiventimeduringtherainy
seasonintheAmazoneachyear:
(6,591,024,000,000m3X2)+(1,800,000,000,000m3X2)=16,782,048,000,000m3.
GroundWaterandtheWaterTable
ThewatertableandgroundwaterintheAmazonisdirectlyandindirectlytiedtothelevelof
therivers.Whenlevelsarelow,thegroundwaterslowlylowersanddrainsoutviatherivers
(inmostcases),whenwaterishigher,itreplenishes.
Imaketheassumptionthatthereisatleast0.5meterofwaterforeachofthe
7,000,000,000,000m2oftheAmazon,trappedinsoil.Itisgoodtodeterminethatthiswateris
notdirectlyconnectedtoevapotranspiration.These0.5metersofwatertrappedinsoiland
thewatertableisaveryconservativeestimate,inordertopreventskepticismanddiscomfort
amongsthydrologists.Someareaswillhavenogroundwaterandotherswillhaveseveral
metersofgroundwater.Manyofthewatertablesandundergroundreservoirslikethe
Urucuiaaquifer(whichdependsonreplenishmentfromAmazonevapotranspiration)in
WesternBahia,Brazil,aremetersandmetersthick,wherethewaterisjustbelowthesurface
soitisfairtoestimatethattheaverageintheAmazonis0.5metersthickwithsomeregions
havingmuchmoreandotherregionshavingnowater.
ThisaddstotheAmazonanadditional3,500,000,000,000m3ofwater.
7,000,000,000,000m3x0.5meters=3,500,000,000,000m3.
ExcludingthewaterinUrucuiaAquiferwhichisdependentontheAmazonbutnotin
theAmazonbasin
TosummarizetheresultsofdetermininghowmuchwatertheAmazonBasinholds:
TheAmazonwithitsmanyvastdifferentformsofmoisturefromtrees,soil,rivers,watertable
andtheclouds,inessencecanbeconsideredalargesponge.Thisspongeholdsthiswaterina
largecycle.Somesourcesofwatersarenearstagnantinthissponge,andothersourcesof
watersaremovingrapidly.
Thespongeonagivenyearlybasisholdsthe3,500,000,000m3inthewatertable+
16,782,048,000,000m3ineverythingelseforatotalof:
20,282,048,000,000m3ofwater.
ThetotalpotentialAverageRainfall(excludingwaterinthewatertable)intheAmazoncould
be239cm.Whichisrightinlinewithwhatmostscientistsbelievetherainfallis(150cmto
300cm).Themath:
16,782,048,000,000m3÷7,000,000,000,000m2=2.39metersX100cm=239cm
Thegreatlakeshasacombinedtotalof22,500,000,000,000m3ofwater,resultinginthe
AmazonhavingslightlylessfreshwaterthantheGreatLakes,thesecondlargestsourceof
freshwaterintheworld.
Figure1:showsinflowandoutflowoftheAmazonviaevaporationandevapotranspiration,as
wellasprecipitation.
CalculationtoshowhowmuchlesswaterisintheAmazonduetothedrought
WhilecompletingtheanalysistodeterminehowmuchlesswaterhasenteredtheAmazon,I
analyzedthereductionofwaterthathasenteredtheAmazonbasedonregionalprecipitation
data.Itookaverybroadandbasicestimateforthepurposesofthishypothesis,Ionlytook
oneregionaldatalocationfromINMET(BrazilianNationalMeteorologyagency),justsouthof
theinter-tropicalregionintheEasternAmazon;inthecityofParagominas,PA.
Itooktheaveragerainfalloverallperiodof30yeardatapointshowingtherainfallaverage,
andIthencomparedthistothelast6years.In2010,2012,2013,2014,2015(Ihadnodatafor
2011),Ifoundthatrainfallwas12%,30%,19%,31%,and36%less.Whenthesenumbersare
accumulateditisatotalof128%lessoverthelastsixyears.
TheeasternAmazon90%to100%ofitsprecipitationisfromtheAtlanticOcean,asthereis
minimalforesttopullthewaterfrominthisregion.Someclimatemodelshaveshownthat
theAmazonworkslikea,whereitevaporatesfromtheoceanandrainsinland,andthenvia
evapotranspirationitmovesinlandandprecipitatesagain.Manymeteorologistsbelievethis
pullingfromthisoceanisduetoalowpressureareathatformsovertheAmazonduetoallthe
moisture,andthisactsasamagnetforfurthermoisturefromtheAtlantic.Someusea
metaphorthatitactslikeafirebrigadecarryingbucketsofwaterfromtheoceanallthewayto
theAndesMountains.Whenthebioticpumpstopspullingfromtheoceanitcutsoffthe
systemfromitssourceofwater.Basedontheonedatapoint,wecometoaconclusionthat
128%lessrainhasenteredtheAmazoninthelastsixyears.Thisisageneralnumber,butwe
knowthatthedroughtiswidespreadbasedonotherdatapointsnotfactoredintothemathof
thistheory;sobytakingthedatapointswemayfindthatitis128%+/-40%rainfall.
Basedon128%lessrainoverthelast6years,wecanfindthat9,588,510,720,000m3lessrain
hasenteredtheAmazonoverthelastsixyears.
128%lessrainX7,491,024,000,000m3TotalRainthatenters=9,588,510,720,000m3
Thefactthattheriverlevelsaredown21feet(farbelownormalandinsomeplacesnearly50
feetlowerthanrainyseasonflooding)showsamassiveamountofwaterisnotinthesystem,
andthatthewaterinthewatertablewillalsobelowerandslowlyflowingoutintotheriver.
Thiswatertableisbeingseverelydrainedastheriverdrops.
Asthistheorygainstraction,wewillfurtheranalyzethedropinriverflowtodeterminehow
muchithasslowedbelowthe209,000m3persecond,todetermineamorepreciseestimateof
howmuchlesswaterisintheAmazon.
OceanLevels
ViathecalculationforhowmuchlesswaterisintheAmazonBasinandtheSoutheastofBrazil
(anareaof8,500,000,000,000m2),wehavedeterminedthatapproximately9,588,510,720,000
m3ofitstotal20,282,048,000,000m3ofwaterhasbeenlost.Thisis47%ofthewaterheldin
theAmazonregions.
9,588,510,720,000m3÷106,900,000,000,000m2X100cm=8.9cm(3.5inches).
ContinuedRainingintheWesternAmazon
InthewesternAmazonitisstillraining,yetriversaredropping.Thisrainismostlikely70%to
90%fromevapotranspirationandnotfromtheocean,soitwillcontinueraininghereunless
theforestinthewesternAmazondriesoutandtheprocessofevapotranspirationslowsdown.
Calculationsfortheskeptics
Somehydrologist’sstatesthatthereissimplynotenoughwaterintheAmazontoaffectocean
levels.Howeverifwebaseitonthe2015droughtofa36%fallineasternAmazonrainfalland
baseitonlyonthewaterthatleavestheAmazoninagivenyear,thentheoceanlevelstillrises
at2.2cm.
36%X6,591,000,000,000m3(outflow/yr)/7,000,000,000,000m2(area)X100cm=2.2
cmofoceanlevelrise
Themostimportantfactoristonowfigureoutwhattheexactamountisbetween2.2cmand
the8.9cmthattheAtlantichasrisen.
OceanCurrentsandEvenDisplacement
ThemathhasdeterminedthattheAtlantichasbeensurgedwithwater.Basedontheinitial
math,itstates2.2to8.9cm(0.86to3.5inches).Eitherway,thisdoesnotexplainthe12to18
inches(30to45cm)oftitlesurgealongtheSoutheasternSeaboardoftheUnitedStates.
Figure2belowexplainsthatthewatermaynotbespreadevenlyacrosstheAtlantic.Basedon
theoceancurrents,thewaterfromtheAmazonbasinwouldleaveandheaddirectlytoward
theSoutheasternSeaboardoftheUnitedStates.Ibelievewaterhascoalescedinonelocation
andasitlefttheAmazoninsuchashortnumberofyearsithasnothadtimetospreadout
evenlythroughouttheentireAtlanticOcean.
IdidnotcalculatehowthewaterwouldaffectthePacific,asitwilltakeseveralyearsto
displaceamongstalltheoceans,ormaybeitneverwill.ThePacificisalready40cmhigher
thantheAtlantic,sothiswatermayhavenoaffectonthePacificinthefuture.
Figure.2
CompoundingFactors
WhilethisdroughthasbroughttheAmazontoitskneesintermsoflackofwater,thereisa
simultaneousdroughtinthe2ndlargestriverbasinintheworld,theCongo.Thisbasinhas
dischargedagreatdealofwater.ThisbasinalsodrainsintotheAtlantic.Viaoceancurrents,
thiswateralsotravelsinthedirectionoftheUSSoutheastSeaboard.
Causes
TherearenumerouscausesofthedroughtintheAmazon.
a.) ThemajorityofweatherandclimatemodelsstatesthattheAmazonBasinandthe
5,500,000squarekilometerofforestandthewaterthatarespongedupinthisregion
createanartificiallowpressurearea.Thislowpressureareaiswhatpullsweather
systemsinwardtowardthelowpressurecenteroftheAmazon.Alongwiththis
weatherisevaporationfromtheoceanthatprecipitatesontotheAmazon.The
modelshavepredictedvariousconsequencestoremovingtreeswhichlowerthe
moistureintheAmazon,whichdecreasesthelowpressureareaovertheAmazon.At
leastonemodelshowsthattheeffectwillspiraloutofcontrolsothatlessmoisture
pullsinlesswater,leavinglessmoisture,whichwillfurtherpullinlesswatertothe
pointwhereeachyearwillseeadecreaseinmoistureuntilithitsanewconstant
balance,whichsomeclimatemodepredictwillturntheAmazonintoaSavannah.
Othermodelsshowthat50%ofthetreesintheAmazonwillgoextinctoverthenext
centuryandthisisdirectlyrelatedtolessrainfallandmoreheat.Treesthatdependon
aconstant239cmeachyearmaynotbeabletosurviveon120cmeachyear.
b.) TheEnvironmentalMinisterofBrazilhasblamedlessrainfallonwarmingocean
temperatures.
c.) ThePresidentofBrazilblamesitonElNino,whichisthewarmingofthePacific,which
doescausedroughtintheAmazon,however2015/2016willbetheworstdroughtin
thelastsixyearsofdroughtandlowerrainfallyears,soshehasexplanationforthis
year,nottheprevioussix.
d.) Atleastoneclimatemodelpredictsthatitiscausedbyclimatechange,butnotrelated
todeforestation.
Ibelieveitisalloftheabove,asnospecificcauseisincorrect,andnoneisexclusivelycorrect.
Deforestationdefinitelyplaysarole,aswellastheElNino,andclimatechangeitselfcannotbe
ruledout.
Conclusion
TheAmazonison6yearsofa7yearlowerrainfallanddrought,thelastsixyearshasbeen
droughtandthisnextyearisanElNinoyear,soitwillbeanevenworsedroughtthanwehave
seenwhichwillpushtheAmazonforesttoitsfeasiblebreakingpoint.
Thisseven-yearperiodofdroughtshouldbebrokenbytheendof2016withaLaNinayear,
andbasedonthepastinstanceofthephenomenon;LaNina’swillbringheavyrainstothe
Amazon.
IfLaNinaturnsouttobeadroughtyearfortheAmazon,anditdoesnotreplenishtheAmazon
andtherivers,lakesandsoilwithheavyrain,thentheprocessofthebioticpump,
evapotranspirationandlowpressurecenterpullingwaterintotheAmazonregioncouldbe
permanentlybrokenandtheAmazoncouldfaceseriousissuesinthefuture.
IssuesthatwillarisefromanAmazonthatfunctionsonlesswater:
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•
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•
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ItwillcloserresembletheforestofthesoutheasternUnitedStatesin100years.
Whicharefarfewspecies,floraandfauna.Therecentmodelthatwaspublishedin
2015statedthathalfthetreespecieswilldie-offintheAmazoninconsequenceofless
waterintheAmazon;
Itwillnolongerbeclassifiedasarainforest;
Forestfires,whichwereonceonlycausedbymanintheAmazon,willbecommonly
causedbylightningstrikesandwilldevastatevastareasoftheAmazon.Firesthat
exceedtheworstcasescenariosthathavetakenplaceinthelast100yearsinthe
westernUnitedStateswillbeyearlyeventsintheAmazon.
CarbonPollutionfromforestfireswillmakeBraziloneofthehighestcarbonemitters
intheworldanddeforestationlevelsfromthefireswillgobacktoperiodsrivalingthe
1990’s,whentherewererecordhighyearsofdeforestation,thistimeitwillbeoutof
controldeforestation,completedbynature.
FarminginMinasGerais,WesternBahia,andTocantinsthatdependon
EvapotranspirationoftheAmazonfortheirrainfallandtofilltheirirrigationpondswill
benegativelyaffected.ThesefarmingregionsthatdependonAmazonwaterwillbe
•
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devastated.Thedroughtforthelastsixyearshavealreadyseenfarmsinthisregionat
breakevenorlosing,resultinginthosefarmersbeingoutofbusinessinthelongterm.
ThePalmOilindustryinthestateofParawillnotbeprofitableasitneedsmorerain.
ThePalmOilindustryalreadyhasloweryieldsthanMalaysiaandIndonesiaduetoa
naturallylowerrainfallandadryseasonthatislonger.Inthefuture,rainwillevenbe
lowerandthedryseasonwillbemorepronounced,makingPalmOilanuninteresting
crop.
FarminginpartsoftheAmazonbasinwillalsobehurt,butnothurtasbadasMinas
Gerais,TocantinsandWesternBahia.
Monitoring
Itisstilltooearlytotakeaction.Wemustmonitorthesituationtoseeifthedroughtwill
continueoverthenext3to5yearsandtoseehowLaNinain2016/2017willinfluencethe
situation.
Moreresearchneedstobeconductedtofinetunetheamountofwaterthathasnotentered
theAmazon.MoredataneedstobecompiledtodeterminetheflowrateoutoftheAmazon
River.WiththisadditionaldatawecandeterminehowmuchwaterhaslefttheAmazon.
Conclusion
Theory:2.2to8.9cmofadditionalwaterintheAtlanticisalargeamount.Evenunderthe
mostconservativeofcircumstancesthistheoryshowsthattheAmazondoesaffecttheAtlantic
Ocean.Withdroughtexpectedinthefuture,wearenowabletoknowthatduringdrought
yearsintheAmazonthattheAtlanticOcean,alongtheSouthEastUSSeaboardwillresultin
floodingandrecordhightides.