Presentation of FY15 consolidated preliminary results

Transcription

FY15 consolidated preliminary results
Bologna, 12 February 2016
Notice
This document has been prepared by Unipol Gruppo Finanziario S.p.A. and by UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. solely for information
purposes in the context of the presentation of its FY15 preliminary results.
The content of this document does not constitute a recommendation in relation to any financial instruments issued by the Company or
by other companies of the Group, nor it constitutes or forms part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation to purchase any
financial instruments issued by the Company or by other companies of the Group, nor it may be relied upon for any investment
decision by its addressees.
The FY15 data contained herein are preliminary in nature and refer to the date hereof and, therefore, may be subject to further
variations.
Please note that these preliminary data are subject to review by the Independent Auditors that still have to complete their necessary
analysis in order to release their report.
The FY15 final results will be approved by the Board of Directors scheduled on 10 March 2016 and will be disclosed to the market
according to, and in the terms set forth by, the applicable laws and regulations.
Unless otherwise specified all the figures reported in this presentation are on a consolidated basis.
The data pertaining to UGF are on a grey background and the related charts are in the shades of blue.
The data pertaining to UnipolSai are on a pale blue background and the related charts are in the shades of red.
2
FY15
Contents
•
Consolidated preliminary results
•
Insurance business
•
Non-Life insurance business
•
Life insurance business
•
Banking business
•
Real Estate and diversified companies
•
Financial investments
•
Solvency, equity and dividends
2013-2015 Business Plan: achievements
Appendix
Key Performance Indicators
€m
UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO
UNIPOLSAI
FY14
FY15P
D%
Consolidated net profit
783
738
-5.8%
Proforma cons. net profit a
783
821
Group net profit
740
FY14
FY15P
D%
Consolidated net profit
505
579
+14.6%
+4.9%
Proforma cons. net profit a
505
738
+46.1%
711
-3.8%
Group net profit
192
272
+41.3%
740
793
+7.2%
192
396
+105.9%
EPS b (€)
0,28
-9.8%
EPS b (€)
0.27
0.38
+41.3%
Proforma EPS (€)
0,28
0,25
0,28
+0.6%
Proforma EPS (€)
0.27
0.55
+105.9%
15,329
13,982
-8.8%
17,204
16,476
-4.2%
o/w Non-Life
7,744
7,334
-5.3%
o/w Non-Life
8,289
7,883
-4.9%
o/w Life
7,584
6,648
-12.3%
o/w Life
8,915
8,593
-3.6%
94.6%
94.6%
0.0 p.p.
94.0%
93.9%
-0.1 p.p.
FY14
FY15P
D%
FY14
FY15P
D%
Solvency I
1.66x
1.77x
+0.11x
Solvency I
1.69x
1.70x
+0.01x
Total equity
6,635
6,615
-0.3%
Total equity
8,440
8,445
+0.1%
Shareholders’ equity
6,295
6,278
-0.3%
Shareholders’ equity
5,691
5,524
-2.9%
2.37
2.22
-6.5%
BVPS e (€)
7.93
7.70
-2.9%
Proforma Group net profit
a
Premium income (direct business) c
Combined Ratio d
BVPS e (€)
Proforma Group net profit
a
Premium income (direct business) c
Combined Ratio d
a
Proforma profit before DTA writedown following decrease in the IRES rate to 24% from 27.5% as provided for by the 2016 Budget Law
Group profit/no. of total shares at year-end
c Proforma 2014 income net of the portfolio sale to Allianz
d Net of reinsurance (expense ratio calculated on earned premiums)
e Shareholders’ equity / no. of total shares at year-end
b
4
Consolidated results by business area
€m
UNIPOLSAI
FY14
Non-Life
Life
Other
Consolidated profit
Proforma cons. profit a
FY15P
Pre-tax
result
Net
result
Pre-tax
result
Net
result
954
254
-66
669
161
-46
813
344
-113
578
237
-78
1,142
1,142
783
783
1,044
1,044
738
821
740
740
Group profit
Proforma Group profit a
711
793
FY14
Non-Life
Life
Banking business b
Other
Consolidated profit
Proforma cons. profit a
Group profit
Proforma Group profit a
FY15P
Pre-tax
result
Net
result
Pre-tax
result
Net
result
1,009
274
-297
-186
699
171
-225
-139
907
343
-94
-198
636
235
-71
-222
801
801
505
505
958
958
579
738
192
192
272
396
Operating figures.
a Proforma result before DTA writedown following decrease in the IRES rate to 24% from 27.5% as provided for by the 2016 Budget Law
b Including provisions set aside by the holding company on bank loans part of the indemnity agreement.
5
FY15
Contents
•
•
Insurance business
•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Direct insurance income
€m
UNIPOLSAI
17,204
15,329
13,982
7,744
16,476
-4.2%
-8.8%
8,289
7,883
8,915
8,593
FY14
FY15P
Non-Life premiums
Life premiums
7,334
7,584
FY14
Non-Life premiums
6,648
FY15P
Life premiums
Operating figures.
Like-for-like income net of the portfolio sale to Allianz.
Including the effect of this disposal, the overall premium income variation would be -12.7% for UnipolSai and -7.9% for Unipol Gruppo Finanziario
7
FY15
Contents
•
•
Insurance business
•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Non-Life – Direct premium income
€m
UNIPOLSAI
7,334
7,744
-5.3%
Premiums by company
MV
7%
9%
4,589
4,254
Accident&Health
-7.3%
Property
General TPL
14%
58%
3,155
3,080
FY14
FY15P
MV
-2.4%
Other
12%
FY14
FY15P
UnipolSai S.p.A.
7,328
6,998
Other companies
UnipolSai Group
416
7,744
336
7,334
FY14
FY15P
7,744
7,334
Non-MV
Premiums by company
7,883
8,289
-4.9%
6%
MV
9%
4,789
4,423
-7.6%
14%
3,500
3,459
FY14
FY15P
MV
-1.2%
UnipolSai Group
Property
Linear
Unisalute
172
270
145
301
Arca
103
103
8,289
7,883
General TPL
56%
15%
Accident&Health
Other
Unipol Gruppo Fin.
Non-MV
Operating figures.
2014 income and the associated variations are on a like-for-like basis, net of the portfolio sale to Allianz..
Including the effect of this disposal, the overall variation in Non-Life premium income would be -12.9% for UnipolSai and -12.1% for Unipol Gruppo Finanziario
9
Non-Life – Combined Ratio net of reinsurance
UNIPOLSAI
Expense Ratio
94.6%
94.6%
26.0%
28.2%
68.6%
66.4%
FY14
FY15P
93.9% direct business
Loss Ratio
94.0%
93.9%
25.4%
27.3%
68.6%
66.6%
FY14
FY15P
Expense Ratio
93.5% direct business
Loss Ratio
Combined ratio net of reins.: operating expenses/earned premiums after reins.+ claims charges/earned premiums after reins.
10
UnipolSai S.p.A. – MV TPL technical indicators, direct business
UNIPOLSAI S.p.A.
var.
Other MV TPL indicators
MV TPL Combined Ratio
FY14
FY15P
Total portfolio
retail
fleets
Direct business
92.9%
93.6%
Expense ratio a
21.9%
23.4%
Portfolio average premium
12.4%
9.5%
13.3%
10.1%
No. of claims reported
71.0%
70.2%
Frequency
commissions/premiums
other operating exp./premiums
Loss ratio b (incl. OTI)
Operating figures.
a Operating expenses/written premiums from direct business (before reinsurance)
b Claims charges/earned premiums from direct business (before reinsurance)
c Variations calculated excluding figures pertaining to agencies ceded to Allianz
(followed-up passive claims)
vs FY14 c
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.9%
-6.7%
-5.2%
-0.13 p.p.
11
Non-Life – Insurance sector extra UnipolSai
€m
FY14
FY15P
D%
545
549
0.7%
MV
200
169
-15.5%
Accident + Health
307
340
10.5%
38
40
6.6%
86.1%
88.8%
2.7 p.p.
Expense ratio
18.4%
19.7%
1.3 p.p.
Loss ratio (incl. OTI)
67.7%
69.1%
1.4 p.p.
79
65
Premium income
Other
CoR direct business
IAS net result
Aggregate operating figures (Linear + Unisalute + Arca Assicurazioni)
-17.0%
12
FY15
Contents
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Insurance business
•
•
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Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Life – Direct income
€m
UNIPOLSAI
-12.3%
7%
10%
7,584
Income by company
FY14
FY15P
3,696
3,664
3,418
3,043
Traditional
UnipolSai S.p.A.
Popolare Vita+Lawr. Life
Unit linked
Other companies
224
187
Capitalization
UnipolSai Group
7,584
6,648
Pension funds
6,648
24%
60%
Income by channel
Agencies, head office and brokers
FY14
FY15P
51%
Bancassurance
3%
Other
Income by company
FY14
FY15P
7,584
6,648
1,330
8,915
1,946
8,593
Agencies, head office and brokers
FY15P
36%
-3.6%
UnipolSai Group
8%
Traditional
6%
Unit linked
FY15P
46%
a
Arca Vita
Unipol Gruppo Fin.
Capitalization
8,915
8,593
Pension funds
23%
64%
FY14
FY15P
Income by channel
Bancassurance
Other
Operating figures.
a Including €3m premiums from other companies (€1m in 2014)
62%
2%
14
Life – Net inflows
€m
UNIPOLSAI
FY14
FY15P
-3,204
-3,786
+7,584
-2,780
+6,648
-238
-2,203
-286
+1,361
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
claims
net
inflows
+374
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
claims
net
inflows
FY15P
FY14
-3,514
+8,915
-4,082
-2,861
+8,593
-315
-2,316
-373
+1,822
+2,224
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
Operating figures
claims
net
inflows
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
claims
net
inflows
15
Life – Insurance sector extra UnipolSai
€m
Sales network 3,084 branches
D%
Premium income
FY14
1,329
FY15P
1,943
Traditional
Unit/Index linked
Other
1,214
92
23
1,551
367
25
299.7%
45
34
-24.3%
IAS net result
54%
North
1.653
46.2%
27.7%
18%
Centre
544
South &
Isles 887
8.7%
29%
FY14 net inflows
FY15P net inflows
-296
-309
-114
-87
+1,943
-81
+1,329
+1,447
-77
+862
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
claims/other
net
inflows
Operating figures relating to Arca Vita + Arca Vita International
premiums
redemptions
maturities/
annuities
claims/other
net
inflows
16
FY15
Contents
•
•
Insurance business
•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Banking business – KPI
€m
Direct deposits a
Lending b
Indirect deposits
+4.3%
-0.5%
Tangible Book Value
-6.8%
+0,5%
10,035
FY14
9,987
49.117
FY14
FY15P
9,408
51.214
8,766
FY14
FY15P
FY15P
FY15P
436
357
-18.3%
o/w interest income
255
234
-8.5%
o/w non-interest income c
181
123
-32.1%
Provisions on loans
-203
-52
n.s.
Pre-tax result d
-101
6
n.s.
-83
5
n.s.
65.2%
77.9%
Provisions on impaired loans (UGF)
-196
-100
n.s.
Total impaired loans (UGF+Unipol Banca)
-399
-152
n.s.
42.3%
44.5%
Net result d
Cost / Income e
Total impaired loans coverage ratio
The banking business includes Unipol Banca and its subsidiaries.
a Excluding collateralized deposits with Cassa Compensazione e Garanzia.
b Net of provisions at UGF S.p.A. level.
c Operating figure including reclassification of income from loans disposal
d Profit for UGF consolidated banking sector
e Operating costs are net of the effect of the Contribuzione al Fondo di Risoluzione
725
FY14
FY15P
D%
FY14
Gross operating income
721
UGF Banking Group
CET1 ratio
17.8%
12.7 p.p.
+2.1 p.p.
18
Banking business – Focus on impaired loans
€m
Break-down of overall impaired loans portfolio
FY15P
FY14
net
loans
gross
loans
coverage
ratio
net
loans
gross
loans
coverage
ratio
Bad loans
1,136
2,548
55.4%
1,129
2,644
57.3%
Unlikely-to-pay
1,050
1,295
18.9%
925
1,145
19.2%
77
81
4.6%
122
129
5.1%
2,263
3,923
42.3%
2,176
3,918
44.5%
Past due
Total impaired loans
Trend coverage ratio
55.4%
55.8%
42.3%
42.4%
FY14
1H15
57.3%
52.5%
50.2%
40.9%
44.5%
37.2%
FY13
1H14
Bad loans
Including provisions set aside by UGF.
FY15P
Impaired loans
19
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Contents
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•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Real Estate
UNIPOLSAI – Tot. ptf €4,135m
UNIPOL GRUPPO FINANZIARIO – Tot. ptf €4,307m
Breakdown by cluster
Core
Core instrumental
Evolution of RE portfolio (€m)
7%
15%
32%
FY14
Trading
Value Added
13%
Land and
Development
33%
investments a
4%
purchase
4%
+269
UnipolSai
96%
21%
Life
RE
+50
Unipol Gruppo
Finanziario
Breakdown by sector
Non-Life
4,593
Breakdown by ownership
sales b
4%
Other sector
-310
71%
depreciation
-76
Breakdown by Area
Breakdown by use
Offices
Residential
Land
Hotel
3%
1%
Health centres
Other
8%
7%
6%
10%
39%
-117
Florence
Rome
50%
15%
11%
writedowns
Bologna
12%
7%
Condos
Commercial
Milan
1%
other c
-102
FY15P
4,307
Turin
18%
12%
Foreign
countries
Other RE investm.
Operating figures
a Including capex, purchase, fixed assets in progress and equity for JVs
b No. 95 deeds, sale to Qatar Holding of the stakes in RE funds included in the Porta Nuova project and sale of the company Punta di Ferro
c Including exchange variation and operations on RE funds and other associated companies
21
Diversified companies
UNIPOLSAI
€m
Atahotels
EBITDA
TURNOVER
NET RESULT
+20%
110.7
132.4
13.9
0.7
FY14
FY15P
FY14
2.1
FY15P
-8.7
FY14
Tenute del Cerro
TURNOVER
EBITDA
TURNOVER
EBITDA
NET
RESULT
TURNOVER
5.8
38.6
10.4
EBITDA
NET
RESULT
5.6
42.2
9.8
-1.1
FY14
Marina di Loano
Cliniche
NET
RESULT
FY15P
-0.9
-1.4
-0.9
-9.1
FY14
FY15P
FY14
FY15P
FY14
FY15P
-10.1
-11.9
-8.9
FY14
FY15P
FY14
Local GAAP figures
a Including writedown on managed assets, the 2015 net result is -€42.2m
FY15P
FY14
FY15P
-2.7
-1.7
-5.2
-7.1a
FY14
FY15P
FY14
FY15P
FY15P
22
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Contents
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•
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Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
€bn
Total investments €48.9bn
Equity 0.5
(1.0%)
UNIPOLSAI
Cash 1.0
(2.0%)
Breakdown of bond portfolio
Corporate
5.4%
Other
countries
6.0%
Funds and other 1.2
(2.4%)
Financials
17.2%
Italy
71.4%
Govies
77.4%
Bonds 46.2
(94.6%)
Totale investments €57.7bn
Funds and other 1.2
(2.1%)
Breakdown of bond portfolio
Other countries
6.3%
Corporate
4.9%
Equity 0.5
(1.0%)
Financials
16.7%
Cash 2.2
(3.8%)
Bonds 53.8
(93.2%)
Italy
72.0%
Investments relating to insurance companies of the Unipol Group, escluding DDOR, Lawrence Life and Class D, investments in subsidiaries, associates
and JVs, investments in RE and RE funds. Operating figures.
Govies
78.4%
24
Income from financial investments
UNIPOLSAI
Non-Life
FY15P
Life
Total
€m
yield%
€m
yield%
€m
Coupons and dividends
422
3.1%
1,127
3.7%
1,548
3.5%
Unrealised gains and losses
-41
-0.3%
46
0.1%
5
0.0%
Sub-total
381
2.8%
1,173
3.8%
1,553
3.5%
Gains
316
2.3%
327
1.1%
643
1.5%
Total
697
5.1%
1,500
4.9%
2,196
5.0%
yield%
Non-Life
FY15P
Life
Total
€m
yield%
€m
yield%
€m
Coupons and dividends
446
3.1%
1,293
3.7%
1,745
3.4%
Unrealised gains and losses
-41
-0.3%
50
0.1%
9
0.0%
Sub-total
405
2.8%
1,343
3.8%
1.754
3.4%
Gains
307
2.1%
309
0.9%
619
1.2%
Total
712
4.9%
1,652
4.7%
2,372
4.6%
yield%
Income pertaining to insurance companies of the Unipol Group, excluding DDOR, Lawrence Life and Class D, investments in subsidiaries, associates and
JVs, investments in RE and RE funds. Operating figures.
25
FY15
Contents
•
•
Insurance business
•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Total equity and AFS reserve
€m
UNIPOLSAI
Total equity - roll forward
+738
6,635
+21
AFS
Reserve
variation
6,615
+579
8,440
FY15P
Net
result
Dividends
Other
FY15P
Total
equity
FY14
Total
equity
AFS
Reserve
variation
AFS reserve variation
8,445
FY15P
Net
result
Dividends
Other
FY15P
Total
equity
AFS reserve variation
1,204
1,234
936
-26
Variation
on equity
Variation
on bond
982
-12
-241
-243
FY14
AFS reserve
+29
-351
-252
-511
-268
FY14
Total
equity
Total equity - roll forward
FY15P
AFS reserve
FY14
AFS reserve
Variation
on equity
Variation
on bond
FY15P
AFS reserve
27
FY15P capital soundness indicators
€bn
UNIPOLSAI
Solvency I
Solvency I
4.4
3.6
1.77x
6.4
1.70x
7.5
3.1
2.8
Available capital
Solvency requirements
Excess capital
Available capital
Solvency requirements
Excess capital
UGF Banking Group CET1 ratio 17.8% a
a
The figure doesn’t include the FY15 profit and it doesn’t take into account the estimate of dividends to be paid
28
Dividend estimate 2015
UNIPOLSAI
Ordinary
Savings A
Savings B
2014 DPS
(€)
Total
dividends
0.175
6.500
0.204
398
8
77
2015 DPS
(€)
0.150
483
Total
Total
dividends
424
424
2014 DPS
(€)
Total
dividends
2015 DPS
(€)
Total
dividends
Ordinary
0.170
74
0.180
128
Preference
0.190
52
Total
126
128
29
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•
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•
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•
Appendix
2015P results vs. Plan targets
€m
UnipolSai
Key indicators
Premium income (€bn)
FY15P
FY15 Plan
Unipol
FY15P
FY15 Plan
14.0
15.6
16.5
17.0
Combined ratio net of reins.
94.6%
94.3%
93.9%
-
Investment yield
5.0%
4.2%
4.6%
4.2%
Net profit
738
Proforma net profit
a
814
821
177%
Dividend payout
Integration synergies
b
852
738
Solvency I ratio
a
579
~180%
170%
63% b
~60-80%
78% b
~60-80%
390
349
390
349
b
b
~180%
Proforma profit before DTA writedown following decrease in the IRES rate to 24% from 27.5% as provided for by the 2016 Budget Law
2013-2015 average payout on company profit
31
Premium income and financial investment yield: final results vs targets
€m
UNIPOLSAI
Premium income
45,384
46,329
25,015
27,683
Financial investment yield
5.2%
4.4%
4.8%
5.1% 4.9%
5.0%
4.5%
3.9%
3.9%
3.3%
15,394
16,008
9,257
8,424
6,137
7,584
6,648
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13,982
7,334
20,369
18,646
13 - 15
accrued
13-15 Plan
accrued
Non-Life
Life
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13-15
avg.
13-15 Plan
avg.
51,164
50,341
Premium income
Financial investment yield
26,673
29,643
5.1%
3.9%
4.7%
4.9% 4.7%
4.1%
4.8%
4.3%
3.4%
16,804
17,884
16,476
9,821
8,969
7,883
6,983
8,915
8,593
FY13
FY14
FY15P
24,491
13-15
accrued
3.8%
20,698
13-15 Plan
accrued
Non-Life
Life
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13-15
avg.
13-15 Plan
avg.
32
Consolidated and Group net results and dividends: final results vs. targets
€m
UNIPOLSAI
Consolidated net result
Dividends paid
max
2,298
payout
1,785
min
1,462
60%
821
84
694
80%
63%
84
783
b
483
2,215
555
424
738
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13-15
accrued
13-15 Plan
accrued
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13-15
accrued
payout b
13-15 Plan
Reported result
DTA tax effect
Consolidated net result
Dividends paid
1,836
1,414 a
721
505
b
142
b
max
80%
375
1,272
579
FY14
DTA tax effect
a
78%
min
188
FY13
payout
142
FY15P
60%
13-15
accrued
13-15 Plan
accrued
120
126
128
FY13
FY14
FY15P
13-15
accrued
payout b
13-15 Plan
Reported result
accrued negative impact of the banking business €762m
payout on company profit
33
Integration actions
Integration actions completed…
… with synergies above
expectations …
Integration of premises and staff
Actions carried out to reduce staff:
 ~1,700 employees
 Rationalisation and specialisation of the main Group premises (to 20 from 40) set off
~390
349
IT Systems consolidation
 Convergence of agency and Head Office IT systems completed (to 19 from 41) and onset of
the unified operating model
 Data Centers consolidation for the whole Group
Company scope rationalisation
 No. of Group companies halved (to around 60 from around 120) from 2012 to date
 To 2 from 4 listed companies and to 2 from 8 categories of shares (Unipol and UnipolSai)
Non-Life Technical Area Synergies
 Standardisation of MV and health claims settlement processes and fraud management
 Enhanced underwriting selection at both Head Office and agency network level
ALM Synergies
 Asset allocation reassessment with extended duration
 Streamlining cash management
FY15P
2015
Business Plan
target
34
Sale of the business unit
… along with management of the process to sell the business unit to Allianz
Contractual
process
Industrial
process
Process started in January 2013
Activities
preliminary to the
signing
3/2014
Activities
preliminary to the
first closing
6/2014
Activities
preliminary to the
second closing
Operating
agencies transfer
within the sale
scope
725
AGENCIES
470
STAFF
1.1
€bn PREMIUMS
380
€m CASHED-IN
Portfolio transfer
of the ceded
agencies
12/2014
Implementation completed in 2014
alongside industrial integration actions
35
FY15
Contents
•
•
Insurance business
•
•
•
Banking business
•
•
•
Appendix
Group structure
Share capital
100%
98.53%
60.02%
a
57.75%
63.39%
42.25%
98.12%
717,473,508
ordinary shares
Reuters code
Bloomberg code
UNPI.MI
UNI IM
UNIPOLSAI
50%
Share capital
2,829,715,441
ordinary shares
Reuters code
Bloomberg code
US.MI
US IM
100%
a
Including shares held indirectly through Unipol Finance
37
Disclaimer
Maurizio Castellina, Senior Executive responsible for drawing up the corporate accounts of Unipol
Gruppo Finanziario S.p.A. and UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A., declares, in accordance with Article
154-bis, para 2, of the ‘Consolidated Finance Act’, that the accounting information reported in this
document correspond to the document contents, books and accounting records.
38
Investor Relations Contacts
Adriano Donati (IRO)
Tel +39 051 507 7063
Giancarlo Lana
Tel +39 011 66 57 642
Eleonora Roncuzzi
Tel +39 051 507 7063
Laura Marrone
Tel +39 051 507 2183
Giuseppe Giuliani
Tel +39 051 507 7218
Carlo Latini
Tel +39 051 507 6333
Silvia Tonioli
Tel +39 051 507 2371
[email protected]
[email protected]
39

Presentation of FY15 consolidated preliminary results

Transcription

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