Future of Aviation Traffic

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Boeingサマースクールコンペ最優秀賞受賞
Future of Aviation Traffic
～ｖｓ. High Speed Railway～
B team (Nagoya Univ.)
上野 晃司
藤井 健太
長谷川 直紀
伊藤 新
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Outline
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Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel
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Propositions
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Outline
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Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel
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Propositions
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Airline vs. High-Speed Railway
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Airline and High-Speed Railway are prime
means of long-range transfer .
High-Speed Railway for example
Shinkansen is made with cutting edge
technologies.
VS
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Example : From Tokyo to Osaka
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Start Nakano, Tokyo 9/28(Fri) AM9:00
Goal Dotonbori, Osaka
Which way is reasonable?
How long is the difference
of arrival time?
Osaka
Tokyo
About 600km
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Example : From Tokyo to Osaka
Arriving at
12:49
Shin-Osaka Station
Tokyo International
Airport
Arriving at
12:41
Osaka
International
Airport
Tokyo
Station
Start
Total cost 14,320yen
Arrival time
12:49
Total cost 24,080yen
Arrival time
12:41
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Time or money
Travel by air is faster and by rail is inexpensive.
Travel by air ⇔ Saving time in exchange for money！
Former example
８ minutes for 9,760 yen!

How about any other cases in Japan?
VS
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How much for saving one minute?
A-R cost ≡ cost by air － cost by rail （＞0）
R-A time ≡ time by rail － time by air
Time Saving Cost ≡ A-R cost/R-A time
Hyogo
Over 900 yen！
Okayama
Osaka
Hiroshima
Ishikawa
Yamaguchi
Hokkaido Nagasaki
Kagoshima
Fukuoka
Miyazaki
Aichi
Under 10 yen！
Distance from Tokyo(km)
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Calculation Model
Assuming speed and cost is in proportion to travel distance.
By Shinkansen is
faster and inexpensive.
By air is faster
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Travel in Japan


Inexpensive travel by Shinkansen
To anywhere in Honshu
Save money
Fast travel by air
To the edge of Japan
Save time
400km
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How about other countries?
France: ＴＧＶ
Germany: ＩＣＥ
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Outline

Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel

Propositions
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New topic of High-Speed Railway
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JR Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) Train
2011：Planning
2014：Start of construction
2027：Tokyo – Nagoya in service
2045：Tokyo – Osaka in service
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What is new?
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New topic of High-Speed Railway
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
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Target
- High-speed：Max 500km/h
- Carrying capacity：１0,000people / hour
Tokyo – Osaka
- JR Maglev 67minutes (cf. Shinkansen：138minutes)
JR Maglev : 1,000people/train
(cf. B777：500people/aircraft)
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What happens when the maglev is in service !?
Boundary line ,which is 400km, will extend to 900km.
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If maglev train built in Japan
Distance from Tokyo
900km
400km
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If maglev train built in Europe
Distance from Paris
900km
400km
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Future of the relationship airline and railway
Short-range
(within 900km)
Short-range
(within 900km)
Long-range
(over 900km)
Island
If maglev evolution went on...
Airplane:: Hub to Hub and Hub to island.
Other paths would be
taken over by Maglev and High-Speed Railway.
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Outline

Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel

Propositions
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Proposition A
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Proposition A
Ｑ．What should the aircraft maker do
if the High-Speed Railway spread all over the world?
In short-range,
some advantage to High-Speed Railway is needed to survive!
In the safety? → It is a matter of course.
In the fare?
→ It is difficult for airlines to service in lower fare.
In the comfort? → Extra comfort is not needed in short-range trip.
then・・・
Ａ．Make a Supersonic transport for short-range!
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Now planed SST
Boeing
Lockheed Martin
JAXA
・ Reduce sonic boom by the shape of tail-wing etc...
・ Better fuel consumption by improving engines and structures.
All of them are target for long-range SST.
These cannot compete with High-Speed Railway in the future.
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Flight path of the future SST (from Sendai to Fukuoka)
Take off → Fight to the sea → Climb steeply, Rapidly accelerate
→ Fly in the space → Descend steeply → Landing
Target flight time is 30 minutes !!
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SST which can compete with Railways in short-range.
・ Big noise in taking off and landing.
・ Sonic boom.
・ Bad fuel consumption.
To solve these problems…
・ Use different engines at taking off and climbing.
→ Reduce the noise as the level of subsonic airplane.
・ Climb steeply over the sea and fly at hypersonic speed
in the space.
→ Solve the problems of sonic boom.
・ New propulsion unit and evolution of aerodynamics.
→ Good fuel consumption and lower cost.
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How to overcome these technical difficulties?
We don’t know at all !!
But…
Maglev will be in service in
Tokyo – Nagoya ： 2027
Tokyo – Osaka
： 2045
Taking it into consideration…
Maglev will connect almost all big cities in Japan by the year 2100, at the earliest.
And it will connect big cities all over the world by the year 2200 or 2300 ??
So, you have enough time to overcome.
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Proposition B
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Proposition Ｂ
Ｑ．What should the aircraft maker do
if the High-Speed Railway spread all over the world?
Ａ．Aim the mutual prosperity.
You should focus on the convenience of access
between air and rail. Moreover it will be better for
you to join the High-Speed Railway manufacture.
How about making a High-Speed Railway?
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Airport in the future
Airport Terminal
Railway Station
Airport Terminal
Aircraft with low noise will be required!
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Charles de Gaulle International Airport
High-Speed Railway
station is in the airport.
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High-Speed Railway by Boeing
Central Japan Railway asked Mitsubishi Heavy Industry!?
Maximum speed of JR Maglev is 500km/h
This speed is close to airplane!
⇒ You can utilize the technology developed for airplane.
Boeing HSR
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Ground effect train
Experimental unit
Lift by wing
Low level flight by ground effect.
Aerodynamic design is important !!
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Conclusion
 High-Speed
Railway is reasonable in Japan.
 High-Speed
Railway will spread all around the
world.
→ Airlines and High-Speed Railways make
Hub and spokes.
 Our
propositions
A：Supersonic transport in short-range.
B：Mutual prosperity between air and rail.
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How Maglev float?

Floating
Maglev is floated by superconducting magnet and
floating coil which is installed in it’s body.
How to float.
There are coils in a moving magnetic field.
→ Induced electromotive force is induced in a coil.
→Current is occurred by induced electromotive force.
→ Magnetic field is induced and repel to wall magnet.
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How Maglev drive to forward
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Driving
It is droved by Linear motor constructed
superconducting magnets and drive coils.
How to drive.
Switch the coil magnetic pole in the rail way at
transformer substation.
→Same as (normal) motor driving force is occurred.
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Short Range SST
Short Range Supersonic Transport
・ Make a Supersonic transport.
→ Compete with Maglev.
Problem of SST
・ Big noise in taking off and landing.
・ Sonic boom.
・ Bad fuel consumption.
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Comparison
Short-range
・ Make a Supersonic transport.
→ Compete with Maglev.
Long-range
・ Improve ordinary subsonic airplane(787 , 737MAX , 747-8）
・ Of course use Supersonic airplane too.
→ Passenger can choose the airplane suit for their purpose.
Maglev
Supersonic transport
Subsonic airplane
Speed
○
◎
○
Fare
○
△
○
Comfort
○
△
○/◎
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About Supersonic transports
・ Only Concorde had been in regular service.
・ Concorde
・
・
・
・
・
BAE（England）、Sud-Aviation（France）cooperative development
First flight in 1969. Regular service ended in 2003.
Flight speed is Mach 2.0.
From New York to London :: about 3 hours.（normal 6 hours）
Problems :: Sonic boom ,noise ,fuel consumption ,safety
・ Boeing2707
・
・
・
・
SST planed by Boeing in 1960’s.
Flight speed is Mach 2.7 in the plan.
Sonic boom ,noise ,environmental problems could not be solved.
Canceled in 1971.
Profitable SST has never been developed.
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Example of space flight
Virgin Galactic
… Space tourism company established by the Virgin group.
“Space Ship Two” and
mother plane “White Knight Two”
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Flight of Space Ship two
・ From the end of 2013 or the
beginning of 2014, it will be in service.
・ 2 hours flight and the price is
16million yen per person.
・ 529 people booked already.
①
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
Climb to 14km
Separation and then climb to 62km
Reach maximum altitude 110km
Fold wings and descend
Extend wings
Glide
Landing
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Railway station in the future
High-Speed
Railway
International
Terminal
Customs
High-Speed
Railway
Domestic
Terminal
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Operating speed
Mach
Airliners operating speed
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Safety
Shinkansen
From the first Tokaido-Shinkansen set up in
October 1st 1964 , no passenger is dead more
than 40 years.

Airplane
・Japan Air Lines flight No.123 crush in 1985.
and so...
・One serious incident happen in three million
flight.
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Operating speed
300km/h
1,000km/h
High Speed trains operating speed
Mach
Airliners operating speed
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本数(From Tokyo to Osaka)
Shinkansen
（Tokyo→Shinosaka）
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Train runs
at 15‐minute intervals.
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From Tokyo to Osaka
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Airline（Haneda→Osaka）
約30分に一便
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Capacity(From Tokyo to Osaka)
Shinkansen
（Tokyo→Shin-Osaka）
Capacity：1,000people
15minutes/train
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Airline
（Haneda→Itami）
30minutes/train
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Capacity：500people
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Future traffic（Airport and station)
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Airport is in ….
America
・ New York
・ Chicago
・ Houston
・ Miami
Europe
・ Heathrow
・ Madrid
・ Roma
・ Warsaw
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Hub airport in America
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Hub airport in Europe
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If maglev train built in U.S.A
Distance from
Washington.D.C
400km
900km
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Propositions to you, as an aircraft maker
We have two strategies to compete with
High-Speed Railway!
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Outline

Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel

Propositions
Company Logo
Outline

Today Airline

Future Traffic
1. New topic about HSR
2. Prediction of Future Travel

Propositions