Present - Sustainable Investing Challenge
Transcription
Present - Sustainable Investing Challenge
REwiRE: Rural Electrification with Renewable Energy Kelcie Abraham, Himani Phadke, Maria Riaz & Jonathan Strahl International Impact Investing Challenge 13 April 2012 Meet the REwiRE team Jon Strahl Himani Phadke MA International Policy Studies, Energy, Environment & Natural Resources MA International Policy Studies, Energy, Environment & Natural Resources Fulbright scholar, 2007-08 Financial consulting and UN Foundation Fluent in Bahasa Indonesian Current research on cookstoves in India 4/16/2012 Kelcie Abraham PhD Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sustainable Design & Construction Civil Engineering & Economics at MIT Gabilan Stanford Graduate Fellow © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University Maria Riaz MA International Policy Studies, Energy, Environment & Natural Resources Goldman Sachs and IFC Collaboratory on Global Projects, Stanford University 2 Overview Mission Motivation Technology Business Model Risk Mitigation Next Steps Photo credit: J. Strahl 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 3 Mission REwiRE will finance locally co-owned renewable energy mini-grids in rural communities of Indonesia Photo credit: Jane Erickson 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 5 Motivation Rural electrification is a 1.1 billion-person issue Image source: http://geology.com/press-release/world-at-night/ Globally, 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity; 84% live in rural areas. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 7 Rural electrification positively impacts welfare Household income Productivity of home businesses Agricultural productivity Public health Educational attainment Public good benefits (security) Quality of life Photo credit: Erin McGough World Bank estimates annual welfare benefits of electrification at $600 per household. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 8 Rural electrification efforts face many challenges Extending the national grid can be expensive Remote areas with low population density, low demand, and difficult geography Image source: http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/energy/op/parliamentarian_forum/indonesia_sugiharto.pdf 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 9 Indonesia is an ideal country for REwiRE Strong government support Goal: 95% electrification by 2025!?! Abundant renewable resources Remote island populations Archipelago has 18,000 islands Fuel costs are high and diesel shipments are intermittent 23% of national electricity is produced from oil Photo credit: Erin McGough Renewables at grid parity on remote islands 67 million citizens (28% of the population) still lack access to electricity. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 10 Past off-grid projects have experienced several problems Limited local ownership Electrification of productive activities neglected Lack of technical and engineering expertise in remote areas Inadequate financing for longterm sustainability and scalability Image source: www.alibaba.com/product-free/115259576/broken_solar_panel.html 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 11 IBEKA, our partner, has overcome classic rural electrification challenges in Indonesia Local ownership of micro hydro facilities through community co-operatives Community values electricity as an asset Sustainable O&M model Over 20 years of experience, with ample technical and engineering expertise 50 projects, 0.5M people Photo courtesy of IBEKA However, as a nonprofit organization relying solely on grant funding, IBEKA has limited scale and impact. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 12 Capital structure achieves scale with minimum transaction costs Indonesian Island Senior Institutional Investors 40% Village 2 SubTier1 Village 1 Joint Venture Co-op & REwiRE Joint Venture Co-op & REwiRE Holding Company REwiRE LLC Village 3 Founders 5% Impact Investors 25% SubTier2 MCC Grant 30% Joint Venture Co-op & REwiRE 4/16/2012 Mini-grid Capital flows © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 13 REwiRE will pilot three micro hydro mini-grids on Sumba Island Only 15.8% of 685,186 people living on Sumba have access to electricity. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 14 Technology Micro hydro is our technology of choice for the pilot project Viability and low cost of micro hydro demonstrated by our partner NGO IBEKA Biomass We seek minimal technology risk for the first 3 installations After proving the financial model, we will expand to consider other technologies, seek new partners, and broaden our impact 4/16/2012 Wind Solar Micro hydro © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 16 Technology choice depends on system scale, available resources, and levelized cost of energy End-User Surveys Grid-Connected User Surveys Institutional Reports Predicted Load System Scale Feasibility Studies Past Project Data Institutional Reports Available Resources Past & Comparable Project Data Institutional Reports LCOE Comparison HOMER, Hybrid2, ViPOR Model Verification 75 kWh/HH/month 250 kWh/village/day Rated Capacity: 50 kW System: Mini-grid Solar radiation: 5.9 kWh/m2/day Wind: Promising (NREL Map) Biogas: 56.7 MW (NTT) Micro hydro: 4.5 MW potential Solar PV: 23¢/kWh Wind: 10¢/kWh Biomass: 6¢/kWh Micro hydro: 5¢/kWh Technology Selection 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University Biomass Wind Solar Micro hydro 17 REwiRE will lower costs and improve service with an integrated energy solution Wind and Solar Complementary Biomass Reliable Micro hydro Inexpensive 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 18 Business Model REwiRE is cost competitive Price (¢/kWh) Price of electricity (¢/kWh) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 40 20 14.3 10.2 10 10 6 REwiRE co-op price REwiRE PLN PPA Current diesel 30% cut to Un-subsidized diesel subsidy electricity WTP (World Bank) WTP (Interviews) Revenue: Electricity sales to local co-op members at 10¢/kWh Long term PPA with state owned utility (PLN) at 14.3¢/kWh 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 20 Electricity is an asset that increases ability to pay Assume light is used to work from 6-10pm 1.5 hrs = $0.44 basket 30 hrs = $3.28 mat At 10¢/kWh, monthly lighting bill is $1.64 4 extra hours per day = $13.12-21.87 per month = 10x monthly lighting bill Photo credit: J. Strahl Alternatively, 120 hours of kerosene light costs $6.56-8.75. This is equivalent to 40¢/kWh! 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 21 $1.42 million is needed to fund three mini-grids Sources of Funds 10% Founding Partners 35% MCC 30% Impact Investors Institutional Investors 25% Majority of funds used for transmission work (43%) and mechanical/electrical work (21%) Explore design improvements to reduce upfront transmission and distribution costs 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 22 Base case shows 15.4% IRR with NPV of $1.77 million for three mini-grids Waterfall Chart for REwiRE Pilot Project (Base Case) Compoenents of Net Present Value ( 2013) $2,500,000 CDM Revenues $293,990 $2,000,000 O&M Costs $561,920 $1,500,000 PPA Revenues $1,736,260 $1,000,000 Net Present Value $1,771,875 $500,000 $0 4/16/2012 Co-op Revenues $303,542 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 23 Capacity factor, PPA offtake share, and PPA rate are the most important uncertainties Deterministic Analysis of Project Uncertainties Capacity Factor PPA Offtake Share PPA Rate Co-op Rate CDM Rate 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 IRR (%) Capacity factor, PPA offtake share, and PPA rate account for 90% of variance Even with moderate fluctuations in uncertain values, IRR remains reasonable 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 24 REwiRE will have triple bottom line impacts Environmental • Diesel displaced • GHG emissions mitigated (CDM) Social Economic • IRR = 15.4% • # of businesses connected 4/16/2012 • # of households connected • Sustained electricity use and welfare effects © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 25 Risk Mitigation REwiRE will mitigate numerous risks Political Local ownership Government support at the ministerial level Local NGO partners Aligned with PLN (stateowned utility) Counterparty “Skin in the game” at all levels Incentives aligned 4/16/2012 Photo credit: Erin McGough © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 27 REwiRE will mitigate numerous risks Technology Partnership with IBEKA Micro hydro is well-understood Cash flow Diverse assets mitigate risk Demand and construction Seek ADB credit enhancements Guaranteed 6% return Operation and maintenance Community owned and operated Photo credit: J. Strahl 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 28 Next Steps We have a four-stage growth strategy • Connecting to large PLN grid that has baseload demand 1 • Enough capacity factor • Easily qualify for carbon offsets by displacing diesel • Mini-grids connected to remote, state-owned diesel gensets 2 • Stand-alone mini-grids managed entirely by the co-op 3 • Expand to other islands and other countries with similar characteristics 4 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 30 • Connecting to large PLN grid that has baseload demand Expand other islands and otherstate-owned countries with similar characteristics • Mini-grids connected remote, diesel gensets Stand-alone • Enoughtocapacity mini-grids factortomanaged entirely by the co-op We have a four stage growth strategy • Easily qualify for carbon offsets by displacing diesel 23 41 Kodi Renc. Renc. SUTM 17 Mamboro SUTM 13 Malata WAITABULA kms kms Wewewa Palla GHAURA PLTM 1X0,8MW Walakaka Lenang Tanabanss Napu WAIKABUBAK ANAKALANG Wanukaka Haharu 4 3 LINDIWACU Langgaliru 1 WAINGAPU Lewa Makamenggit 1 Kamanggih Tabundung Road Existing Transmission 3 Tanarara 2 Kananggar K. Water Planned TM 2012 /2013 Kakaha Planned TM 2014 / 2015 Image source: PLN Tambolaka Seminar presentation, Sumba March 15, 2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University Mangili Wejelu Nggongi 4/16/2012 Melolo 1 31 Excellent growth potential within Indonesia Electrification Rate Population w/o Electricity Access East Sumba 5.8% 214,620 Sumba Island 15.4% 579,667 33% 3,107,996 72.0% 67,163,862 Region Nusa Tenggara Timur Indonesia Electricity demand growth on Sumba for past 5 years averages 15.9% Universal electricity access by 2030 will require $498 million annually, 95% of which is for rural grid and off-grid development 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 32 Room to scale a proven model worldwide Proven model could be applied to emerging economies with: 1. Concentrated populations in remote areas, 2. Similar grid extension issues, and; 3. Abundant renewable resources. Country Electrification Rate Population w/o Electricity Access (millions) India 25% 289 Bangladesh 59% 96 Nigeria 49% 76 Kenya 84% 33 As of 2011, IEA estimates $275 billion in total investment is needed worldwide to connect 26 million people per year from now until 2030. REwiRE’s model could enable $5-7 billion in large-scale capital deployment. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 33 Why invest with us? Renewables have reached “grid parity” on remote islands of Indonesia We will help to pioneer a new paradigm for decentralized energy systems and foster clean development of emerging markets Electricity = access to information = informed citizens = a sophisticated and stable democracy Earn 10 – 16 % returns on investment. The technology and willingness to pay for it exist. This is an institutional and financial challenge that we know how to solve! 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 34 We are moving forward with this idea Prize money would finance another site visit to identify specific pilot locations for three mini-grids Present to social impact investors with Bank Danamon in Jakarta Identify Indonesian companies and engineers with expertise in other renewable resources Ongoing quest for seed funding Stanford Graduate School of Business Social Innovation Fellowship – financing to pursue a social venture full-time for one year Stanford SEED fund Stanford Farmer’s Investment Club Cherokee Challenge Any recommendations? 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 35 Thank you for your help! Government of Indonesia Umbu Hinggu Panjanji Umbu T. Terawalangu Kuntoro Mangkusubroto HelioPower Ty Jagerson IBEKA Staff Tri Mumpuni Sapto Nugroho Adi Laksono Pradygdha Jati Petrus Lamba Awang Stanford University Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects Ryan Orr Stanford Graduate School of Business Stuart Coulson Jim Patell Stanford University Intrepid Field Assistant (International Policy Studies) Erin McGough Sun One Solutions Forrest Mertens 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 36 Questions, Comments & Feedback Welcomed Appendix Technology Many resource options exist for off-grid electrification projects Projects with Off-Grid Components (1980 - 2008) 3% 7% 8% Microhydro 25% Photovoltaic Wind Biodiesel 17% Diesel Diesel/Renewable Hybrid 40% Source: World Bank 2008 Photovoltaics, microhydro, and wind account for 82% of these projects. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 40 Sumba Island has diverse renewable energy resources 4.5 MW of potential micro hydro Solar radiation of 5.9 kWh/m2/day Promising wind potential 56.7 MW of biogas potential (NTT) Image source: http://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/international_wind/id_sumba_50mwind.jpg Flexibility to target lowest-cost, lowest-risk generation options 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 41 Levelized cost of energy can be used to compare energy generation options Levelized Cost of Energy in Indonesia LCOE (US ¢/kWh) 25 22.55 20.00 20 15 10.00 10 6.00 6.00 Biomass Diesel (Subsidized) 5 4.85 0 Solar PV Diesel (Unsubsidized) Small Wind Micro Hydro Source: IBEKA, US AID Micro hydro has the lowest LCOE at about 5¢/kWh 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 42 System scale impacts optimal technology choice $100,000,000 $10,000,000 Small-Grid 1-30 MW Capital Cost (USD) $1,000,000 Wind Home Systems 0.1-5 kW $100,000 National Grid 21.4 GW $10,000 Mini-Grid 5-500 kW $1,000 $100 $10 $1 1.E-01 Solar Home Systems 20-250 W PicoPV Systems 1-10 W 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 Impact (Number of People) Each village will require a mini-grid system with a rated capacity of about 50 kW 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 43 System scale impacts choice of optimal technology Technology Power Output Resources Primary Applications Unit Cost PicoPV System 1-10 W Solar DC – Light, TV, radio, mobile phone charger $10 (solar lantern); $65 to $200 (solar module) Solar Home Systems < 250 W Solar DC – Light, mobile phone charger, fan, ICT, cooling AC or mixed – Light, fan and cooling on DC AC DC – Light, mobile phone, ICT $180 to $2,100 $4,000 to $32,000 Solar Residential Systems 0.5 – 4 kW Solar AC – Light, mobile phone charger, fan, ICT (radio, cassette player, TV), fans, large working instruments and machines that work on AC power (e.g. drilling machine, grain mill, sewing machine, mixer, etc.) Biomass Generator 15 kW Biomass Light, TV, radio, mobile phone charger, agricultural applications $38,400 Pico Hydropower < 20 kW Hydro Light, TV, radio, mobile phone charger, small business enterprises $4,000 per kW installed Small Wind Turbines < 50 kW (typically 1-10 kW) Wind Local businesses and telecommunication centers (productive uses of power); mostly project based $3,250 to $9,800 per kW installed $3,000 per kW installed Micro Hydropower < 100 kW Hydro Domestic needs of a small community or small business enterprises in remote areas Mini Hydropower < 1 MW Hydro May be either a stand alone scheme or feed into the grid $1,200 per kW installed Small Hydropower < 10 MW Hydro Usually feeding into a grid $1,200 per kW installed 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 44 Financial Institutional and impact investors will have a stake in REwiRE Initial capital expenditure of $1.42 million for 3 mini-grids Rapidly scale to 25 mini-grids over 3-5 years Over 61,000 households 11.2 MW peak load Investor Type Capital Contribution Target IRR Seniority Institutional Investors 30-50% 10-12% Senior Founding Partners 5% 10-12% SubTier1 Impact Investors 15-30% 5% - 7% SubTier1 World Bank Grant 30% 0% SubTier2 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 46 REwiRE requires $1.42 million in funding Sources of Funds Uses of Funds 3% Founding Partners 10% 2% 6% MCC 35% 30% Preparatory Work 6% 19% Mechanical and Electrical Work Transmission Work Impact Investors Institutional Investors Civil Work 43% 21% House Installation Work Feasibility and Design 25% Securing MCC or a similar grant is important for funding Transmission work dominates uses of funds Explore ways to reduce upfront transmission and distribution costs 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 47 Cash flow model Millions REwiRE Cash Flow $1.5 $1.0 Value ($ millions) $0.5 $0.0 -$0.5 -$1.0 -$1.5 Total Operating Revenues 4/16/2012 Development and Construction Funding Year Total Operating Expenses Total Development Expenses © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 48 Tornado diagram data Uncertainty Low Value Base Value High Value Low IRR Base IRR High IRR 60% 85% 92% 8.99% 15.44% 17.09% 0 80% 100% 10.66% 15.44% 16.55% PPA Rate $0.12/kWh $0.143/kWh $0.165/kWh 12.96% 15.44% 17.69% Co-op Rate $0.08/kWh $0.10/kWh $0.20/kWh 14.91% 15.44% 18.00% CDM Rate $7/mtCO2 $10/mtCO2 $15/mtCO2 14.62% 15.44% 16.80% Capacity Factor PPA Offtake Share Uncertainty Swing (Swing)2 % of Variance Cumulative Variance Capacity Factor 8.099 65.59 47.91% 47.91% PPA Offtake Share 5.886 34.64 25.30% 73.21% PPA Rate 4.732 22.40 16.36% 89.57% Co-op Rate 3.085 9.52 6.95% 96.52% CDM Rate 2.182 4.76 3.48% 100.00% Sum 136.91 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 49 Financial model operating assumptions Operating Assumptions Value Units 150 kW Co-op (for all the mini-grids) 30 kW PLN PPA (for all the mini-grids) 120 kW Total size No. of mini-grids Co-op (at full capacity) PLN PPA (at full capacity) 3 262,800 kWh/year 1,051,200 kWh/year Capacity Factor 85% Inflation Rate 3% No. of households/mini-grid 100 Usage / household 0.1 kW 4 x PLN Factor 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 50 Revenue and expense assumptions Revenue Assumptions Value Units Co-op Rate 0.100 $/kWh Wholesale Price (PPA Rate) 0.143 $/kWh PPA Escalator 3% Contract Term 25 Years CDM 10 $/mtCO2 2,792 mtCO2 0% of project cost Value Units 283 $/kW Avoided CO2/year Residual Value Expenses Assumptions O&M Costs 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 51 Capital cost and other assumptions Capital Costs Assumptions Value Units 248 $/kW Civil work 1,827 $/kW Mechanical and Electrical work 1,977 $/kW Transmission work 4,026 $/kW House installation work 229 $/kW Feasibility and Design 553 $/kW Other + Contingency 586 $/kW Value Units Preparatory work Other Assumptions 4/16/2012 Discount Rate 8.00% Exchange Rate 9,145 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University Rupiah / $ 52 Possible grants? Millennium challenge = $350 million in RE in Indonesia over the next 3 years ASHOKA SOCIENTAL JICA GDF SUEZ - Rassembleurs d'Energie (France) Japanese Embassy GPOBA SKATT (for workshop empowerment) GTZ (for tech dissemination) HIVOS (NGO from Netherlands) 4/16/2012 also potential from: World Bank, ADB, Rockfeller Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. UN Year for Sustainable Energy for All © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 53 Expected grant from Millennium Challenge Corporation $600 M Indonesia Compact signed November 19, 2011 $332.5 M Green Prosperity Project MCC Website: “The Green Prosperity Project will provide technical and financial assistance for projects in renewable energy and natural resource management to raise rural household incomes.” 0% of available funds have been committed Jon Strahl spoke personally with MCC representatives in Jakarta on March 29, 2012 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 54 REwiRE projects will qualify for carbon offsets under the Gold Standard Gold Standard uses the “suppressed demand” methodology Offset values are based on expected future demand, not current demand Income effect Energy cost effect Lack of physical access to energy High unit cost of energy UNFCCC COP Durban 2011: Suppressed demand likely to enter CDM language Development doesn’t have to be dirty before it can be classified as clean! 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 55 Risk Mitigation Diverse assets help mitigate cash flow risk City/ Town Senior Institutional Investors 40% Village 2 SubTier1 Village 1 50:50 JV co-op & REwiRE 50:50 JV co-op & REwiRE Holding Company REwiRE LLC Village 3 Impact Investors 25% SubTier2 Cash flows Existing state-owned utility grid 50:50 JV co-op & REwiRE Founders 5% MCC Grant 30% Mini-grid Capital flows Future transmission expansion 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 57 Co-op model helps mitigate risk Community ownership is essential to sustain operations and maintenance of the facility. As part-owners, community members will value the resource and work to maintain it Upfront investment in training saves having to send technicians to remote areas in the future IBEKA has proven this model of ownership with successful installations operational for 20 years Indonesia has over 130,000 community cooperatives across a variety of industries 4/16/2012 Photo credit: J. Strahl © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 58 Credit enhancements mitigate demand & construction risk Senior Institutional Investors 40% 10% 6% SubTier1 Holding Company REwiRE LLC 10% Founders 5% 6% Impact Investors 25% SubTier2 MCC Grant 30% Credit enhancement from the ADB Guaranteed 6% return to institutional investors ADB favors guarantees over explicit capital commitments 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 59 Strong government support mitigates political risk March 2012 presentation to UKP4 and Presidential Advisory Council Kuntoro Mangkusubroto – former CEO of PLN and current head of UKP4 UKP4 staff to encourage small-scale procurement by PLN Photo credit: Erin McGough 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 60 REwiRE has multiple strategies for mitigating technology risk Focus on micro-hydro as core technology IBEKA has developed expertise Technology agnostic with respect to resource Biomass Wind Solar All technologies must be simple, modular, and inexpensive 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 61 ‘Skin in the game’ at all levels minimizes counterparty risk Founders Impact Investors MDFI Local Government Co-operatives Consumers Incentives aligned at all levels 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 62 Strategy REwiRE takes a new, creative approach to rural electrification Displace intermittent, expensive, and dirty electric service from diesel generators Be cost competitive with existing lighting options Work with local partners using a proven, sustainable, and costeffective O&M model Adopt a technology agnostic approach to implementation All of this will be financed by an innovative capital structure. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 64 Two possible approaches to develop the mini-grid 1. Built around early adopters Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) seeking lighting and refrigeration Future extension for household use (lighting, TV, rice cooking) 2. Built around technology Micro-hydro In all cases, the mini-grid is co-owned by a community cooperative 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 65 REwiRE will finance 25 village mini-grid systems on Sumba Provide electricity to 80% of those without access (367,505 of 459,381 people) Displace intermittent, expensive, and dirty electric service from diesel generators Be cost competitive with lighting alternatives 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 66 An Indonesian island is the perfect place for renewables to reach grid parity Sources of National Grid Power Production in Indonesia (2011) 7% 5% Coal 44% 21% Oil Natural Gas Hydroelectric Geothermal 23% Source: EDSM, Government of Indonesia Fuel costs are high although currently heavily subsidized, and diesel shipments are intermittent. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 67 Policy recommendation: PNPM should be involved during all stages of a project Assess Design Build Operate Maintain Monitor Social Capacity Educate citizens to evaluate renewable resource potential Budget time and money for training community members and building a receptive social structure Monitor the success of installed projects 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, J. Strahl, H. Phadke 68 Works cited and consulted EUR 23284 EN – Joint Research Centre – Institute for Environment and Sustainability, “A New Scheme for the Promotion of Renewable Energies in Developing Countries: The Renewable Energy Regulated Purchase Tariff.” Moner-Girona, M., ed. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. 2008. Martinot, E., et al. “Renewable Energy Markets in Developing Countries.” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment. 27: 309-48. 2002. Matser, E., de Groot, R. “Sumba: An Iconic Island to Demonstrate the Potential of Renewable Energy.” Hivos. http://www.hivos.nl/english/AboutHivos/Focus/Iconic-Island-Sumba. 31 March 2011. Niez, A. “Comparative Study on Rural Electrification Policies in Emerging Economies.” Information Paper. OECD/International Energy Agency, Paris, France. 2010. OECD/IEA. “Energy for All: Financing access for the poor.” Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. International Energy Agency, Paris, France. October 2011. Republic of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (EDSM). “Electricity Along 2011 was Better.” EDSM, Jakarta, Indonesia. http://www.esdm.go.id/news-archives/electricity/46-electricity/5454-electricity-along-2011-was-better.html. February 2012. Rolland, S. “Rural Electrification with Renewable Energy.” Alliance for Rural Electrification, Brussels, Belgium. June 2011. Rolland, S., Glania, G. “Hybrid Mini-Grids for Rural Electrification: Lessons Learned.” Alliance for Rural Electrification, Brussels, Belgium. March 2011. Tumiwa, F., Rambitan, H.I., Tanujaya, O. “Cinta Mekar Micro-Hydro Power Plant.” Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR). www.iesrindonesia.org. 26 January 2011. World Bank Independent Evaluation Group. “The Welfare Impact of Rural Electrification: A Reassessment of the Costs and Benefits.” IEG Impact Evaluation, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, Washington, DC. 2008. World Bank Group. “Technical and Economic Assessment of Off-Grid, Mini-Grid and Grid Electrification Technologies.” World Bank Group, Energy Unit, Energy, Transport and Water Department, Washington, DC. 2006. World Bank, “Assistance to the Government of Indonesia’s Demand Side Management Program.” Econoliner International. January 2006. Yadoo, A., Cruickshank, H. “The value of cooperatives in rural electrification.” Energy Policy. 2010. Zerriffi, H. 2011. “Rural Electrification: Strategies for Distributed Generation.” New York, NY: Springer Science+Business Media. 4/16/2012 © K. Abraham, H. Phadke, M. Riaz, J. Strahl – Stanford University 69