impact of climate change in andean bolivian

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ANDEAN BOLIVIAN
COMMUNITIES THAT DEPEND FROM TROPICAL
GLACIERS
Prepared by:
Adriana Soto Trujillo
Review and complementation:
Matilde Avejera, Danitza Salazar, Paula Pacheco, Martín Vilela,
Edwin Torrez
Agua Sustentable
La Paz
Calle Nataniel Aguirre Nº 82 entre 11 y 12 de Irpavi
Telf/Fax: +591 (2) 2151744
[email protected]
Cochabamba
Calle Irigoyen Nº 150, entre Juan de la Rosa y Yuracaré
(zona Sarco)
Telf/Fax +591 (4) 4423162
[email protected]
Tupiza
Av. Tomás Frias Nº 350 (Zona Plaza San Antonio)
Telf/Fax +591 (2) 6945338
[email protected]
1
INTRODUCTION
In the last years, Bolivia has been affected by the
impacts of climate change (increase of heat waves,
changes in rainy season, floods, droughts and forest
fires.), which mainly affect rural communities, who are
the most vulnerable because of their low adaption
capacity; probably because their way of living is
based on the use of natural resources highly sensitive
to the changes of climatic conditions, such as water.
Illimani Glacier
In this sense, researches were made in basins that
depend on Tropical Glaciers in our country to identify
the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of
communities, establishing adaptation strategies to
cope with this situation.
The impact will be much greater in communities that
live in the highlands (mountainous area) if projections
from the IPCC (2008) are considered, which indicate
that water stored in glaciers and in the snow cover
will decline this century, reducing water availability in
warm and dry seasons in those regions depending on
the principal mountain ranges’ snowmelt.
This brochure shows the decline in two Bolivian
tropical glaciers: The Mururata and Illimani. It also
recommends some adaptation strategies for the
Sajhuaya River micro-basin, which water source
comes from the Illimani glacier.
2
IMPACTS: Maximum and minimum temperature increase in the last
decades
Data recorded for the 1975-2009 periods by El Alto
city station show that the maximum and minimum
temperatures have extreme values.
The registered data for the same period in La Paz city
show increase of maximum and minimum
temperatures. 1
16.5
21.0
ANUAL
Linea de Tendecia Maxima
20.5
16.0
20.0
(ºc)
15.0
TEMPERATURA
TEMPERATURA (ºc)
15.5
14.5
19.5
19.0
y = 0.0709x - 122.53
18.5
18.0
14.0
17.5
ANUAL
13.5
13.0
1975
AÑOS
AÑOS
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Linea de Tendecia Maxima
17.0
y = 0.0183x - 22.02
2005
16.5
1975
2010
Figure 1. Maximum temperature in El Alto city
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 3. Maximum temperature in La Paz city
7.0
1.5
y = -0.0036x + 7.5982
y = 0.0281x - 50.458
6.5
TEMPERATURA (ºc)
TEMPERATURA (ºc)
1.0
0.5
6.0
5.5
0.0
ANUAL
5.0
Linea de Tendencia Minima
ANUAL
-0.5
1975
1980
1985
1990
Linea de Tendencia Minima
AÑOS
AÑOS
1995
2000
2005
4.5
1975
2010
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 4. Minimum temperature in La Paz city
Figure 2. Minimum temperature in El Alto city
Data obtained from Espinoza D. and Fernandez R.; Analysis of Climate Trends in
the Region of Sajhuaya River basin. 2011
1
3
IMPACTS: Illimani Glacier Surface Loss
The IPCC (2007, quoted by PNUD, 2011) states that
the increase in atmospheric temperature has
generated an accelerated melting of glaciers in the
Andean region, with obvious impacts on water
availability.
As shown by figures 5 and 6, in the last 46 years,
Illimani glacier has lost approximately 21.3 % of its
surface and 22 m of thickness (depth), at an average
speed of 47 cm a year; thus, reducing the capacity of
the basin for water storage.
Glacier Positions between 2007- 2009
Source: Hydrology and Hydraulics Institute, 2010
Source: Ramírez et. al., 2011
Figure 5. Surface extension of Illimani Glacier (1963-2009)
Source: Ramírez et. al. 2011
Figure 6. Glacier Surface Loss Trend (1963-2009)
4
IMPACTS: Temperature Increase and Mururata glacier surface loss
According to the National Service for Meteorology
and Hydrology (SENAMHI) (Figure 8), in the last period
(2002 – 2006), the average temperature values are
higher than former periods, showing temperature
increase in the last years2.
At the same time, the results of the study made by
Ramírez (2009) in Mururata Glacier show that this
glacier has lost approximately 20.13% of its surface in
the last 42 years (Figure 9).
Figure 8. Average Temperatures in Mururata glacier region.
Source: Ramírez, 2009.
Results presented in this point correspond to the Project “Adaptation to climate
change in regions affected by the melting of tropical glaciers in Bolivia”,
supported by DANIDA.
2
Figure 9. Mururata glacier surface extensions from
1975 to 2009
5
IMPACTS: Precipitation Changes
When analyzing 1946 – 2009 period, it is possible to
see an increase of precipitations with variations in dry
and humid seasons.
PERIOD 1946-2009
PERIOD 1976-2009
900
900
y = 0.6103x - 605.93
EL ALTO
y = -1.6566x + 3919.5
PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL (mm)
800
700
600
500
400
700
600
500
400
Serie Cronologica anual
Serie Cronologica anual
AÑOS
300
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
300
1975
800
800
700
LA PAZ
y = 1.4851x - 2434.5
600
500
400
300
Serie Cronologica anual
Linea de Tendencia
PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL (mm)
According to interviews made – to recover the
memories of the population about extreme climate
events - most individuals remember 1983 (El Niño
Southern Oscilation Year), recorded as the driest year
in the Bolivian West. In general, this type of extreme
events (droughts and floods) affect to the families’
economy; in fact more than 50% of the surveyed
families use their savings to cope with the impacts of
extreme climate events, while 17% of community
families – from the upper basin– temporally migrate to
urban centers (García et. al., 2010).
PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL [ mm ]
However, the population from Sajhuaya micro-basin
perceived that there has been a decrease in rainfall
in the last years, matching with the observed data
from 1976 – 2009 periods.
PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL [ mm ]
800
AÑOS
1980
1985
1990
2000
2005
2010
y = -3.1736x + 6856.4
700
600
500
400
300
Serie Cronologica anual
AÑOS
200
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1995
Linea de Tendencia
AÑOS
200
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Espinoza and Fernández, 2011
6
IMPACTS: Cushion Bogs
At the foot of the glacier there are highland wetlands,
known
as cushion
bogs
or
“bofedal”. These
ecosystems are
fragile and
essential because
they
produce the necessary food for livestock; what’s more,
they are the habitat for native flora and fauna and
store water coming from the melting glaciers, rainfall or
groundwater, acting as water regulators, especially in dry
season.
ADAPTATION STRATEGY
Promote the development of sustainable tourist
activity

Signposting to guide tourists to campsites and at the
same time let them know about the melting of the
glacier, also about the importance and caring of
the cushion bogs.

Relocate the tourists’ campsite to an area outside
the cushion bogs.

Conservation of the cushion bogs through
regulatory frameworks (e.g. declaration of the
place as a Protected Area).
Studies carried out by Carafa (2009) indicate that
between 1989 and 2009 the cushion bog area
increased from 33.7 to 107, 6 hectares, which could be
associated with a higher melting of the glacier.
Communities from the high zone use these areas for
pasturing llamas all year long. Another issue that adds to
the climate change impacts is that this area is used as a
tourist campsite.
Elaborate a Management and Conservation Plan
for Cushion bogs
7
IMPACTS: Climate Risks, rock falls and landslides
Together with communities, the
principal climate and nonclimate risks were identified,
having maps showing the
different risks per community.
Climate risks are next:
Hail
is
common
from
December to March. There is
also frost from May to June;
however, the latter has not
been occurring lately.
The lack or bad distribution of
rainfall affects to communities
from the low area especially.
Non-climate risks: these are the
landslides, rock falls and river
overflows caused by the strong
rains and land instability.
8
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Climate risk, rock fall and landslides
What do we need to introduce to avoid
landslides and rock-falls?
Early warning community system
 Communities should create their own Early
Warning System for flooding, hail and drought.
 Combine
the
traditional
and
scientific
knowledge in order to prepare weather
forecast reports.

Build live barriers
with fruit trees or
other
local
material.
 Through the Municipal government prepare in
communities, a sensitization and broadcast
plan consisting of weather and risk information.
 Among communities and led by the Municipal
Government, generate an emergency plan for
river overflowing and flooding.
 Strengthen the use of local techniques
(cleaning of channels to avoid river
overflowing, among others).
 Recover soil through
gullies
(drainage)
management.
 Present a Food Security Strategy, including
different actions, such as, food storage in case
of loses caused by extreme events.
9
IMPACTS: Production Systems
Communities in the micro-basin are mainly engaged
in agricultural production. In relation to previous years,
their productive systems have suffered some
variations:
Increase
in
temperatures
has
caused an expansion
of crop areas, going
from a dry production
system to an irrigation
commercial
agriculture
with
a
tendency
towards
monoculture
of
lettuce (because of its yield and market value),
especially in the lower basin. This crop is produced in
different times during the year causing in the longterm, soil degradation.
On the other hand fruit trees have been moved
towards the basin’s upper side.
Moreover, dependency for irrigation in lettuce
production has generated greater demand (Fig. 10).
Source: García, 2011.
Fig. 10. Irrigation requirement (l/s) for Tahuapalca community (low area
of the basin) (1975-2010)
This has also caused a greater
resistance and increase in
pests that attack different
crops. Due to this, farmers
currently use pest controls that
are highly toxic, affecting soil,
water, and their health.
10
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Production Systems
Integrated Crop Management
 Manage and store pesticides in safe places.
 It is recommended to incorporate higher
profitability fruit trees in the middle and lower
basin.
 Reduce the use of chemical pesticides by the
incorporation of organic pesticides.
 Get information: Participate in MIP events.
 Implementation and production of improved
varieties (seeds and/or seedlings) resistant to
diseases and climate changes.
Soil Conservation
 Elaborate a periodic register for production and
costs.
 Maintain the aynoqas3 (soil rotation
management) in some sectors (upper
basin).
Integrated Pest Management (MIP)

 Continue or recuperate
crop rotation and terrace
practices.
Use category III
and
IV
pesticides
in
order not to put
our health at
risk.
 Planning
land-use
property level.
at
 Apply
learnt
practices
regarding fertilizers and
organic pesticides.
3
Succession and rotation of plots at community level.
11
IMPACTS: Hydro resources and Management
Currently the snow-melting of the Illimani glacier is
apparently creating greater water availability in the
micro-basin communities.
However, if we consider the loss of the glacier area,
the increase in the evapotranspiration (ET), and
changes in rainfall distribution, in the future, can
generate: water reduction, availability, and quality for
communities.
Although water management in these communities
has adapted to changes, going from a system
without irrigation schedules to one with established
schedules within the community and among
communities with one single irrigation system, today
these agreements are getting very complex. This
could generate greater conflicts, especially among
communities in the basin’s high and low areas.
12
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Comprehensive Management of Hydro Resources
Technologies for water efficient use
Water storage reservoirs have been constructed as
pilot adaptation measures in Khapi and La Granja
communities.
One Aljibe (closed
reservoir) made of
geo-membrane
stores water to
supply controlled
irrigation to an
experimental plot.
Two “Atajados”
(small excavated
ponds) have
been built and
covered with geomembrane. They
collect water from
irrigation channels
and store it for
their use during
water shortage periods, they will also be used to try
sprinkle and drip irrigation.
Besides, it is recommended the implementation of
micro-irrigation systems (drip irrigation, sprinklers).
Actions for reducing hydro erosion
 Implement infiltration ditches in pasture
and fruit-tree areas
 Building of live barriers
 Control of gullies
Quality Control
 Sanitation Education
 Solid waste management plan
 Community monitoring system for water
quality
Conflicts Management
 Improve
the
alliances
between
communities from the low and high areas
of the micro basin.
 Promote dialog for the resolution of
conflicts.
13
CONCLUSIONS
Over time, there is increasing scientific evidence confirming the causes of global warming and its effects, pointing
with certainty to their anthropogenic origin. Consequently, Global Warming and Climate Change will have a
significant impact on hundreds of people in the Andes since the Andean region's ecosystems are particularly
sensitive.
The Andes are known for their rich biological and cultural diversity, and now face the threat of Global Warming
and Climate Change. Since 1939, the temperature of the tropical Andes mountain range has increased from
0.10°C to 0.11ºC per decade, and has accelerated its pace in the last 25 years with a warming of between 0.32ªC
and 0.34ºC per decade4. The current rise has already caused serious damage to the Andean ecosystems,
including the accelerated melting of tropical Andean glaciers, and even more adverse scenarios are expected.
The tropical glaciers of the Andes are particularly sensitive to Climate Change since the process of glacier’s ice
accumulation only occurs under certain conditions during the summer months when rainfall is more intense.
According to the IPCC, accelerated glaciers’ melting is a "critical" matter in Bolivia, where water availability has
been compromised. The IPCC also states that tropical glaciers are "likely” to disappear in the following decades5.
A representative example is the Chacaltaya glacier (4500 m.a.s.l.) which left its condition of glacier in 2009.
The melting of these glaciers associated with other impacts of climate change affect and will significantly keep
affecting hundreds of highly sensitive communities due to their dependence to water provided by glaciers and
their environment. This will involve the violation of their human rights, such as right to life, food and selfdetermination among others, which implies that effective measures have to be taken for the adaptation of these
communities.
This year, in the framework of the COP17 negotiations in Durban, steps will be taken towards a new global
agreement to address this threat; with expectation, we hope that governments have the capacity to arrange
mechanisms that curb this disaster in a consistent and disinterested manner, addressing the underlying problems
for the benefit of life on the planet.
4
5
Vuille & Bradley, 2000 quoted by PNUD, 2011.
IPCC, 2008.
14
REFERENCES
Agua Sustentable. Estrategia de adaptación al
cambio climático para comunidades afectadas por
el retroceso del Glaciar Mururata, caso: Microcuenca
del Río Choquecota. 2011
Carafa, T. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: “Evaluación
ecológica de bodefales de la cuenca circundante al
nevado Illimani”. La Paz, Bolivia. 2009
Espinoza D. & Fernández R. Informe del Proyecto
Illimani: “Análisis de Tendencias Climáticas en la
Región de la Cuenca del Río Sajhuaya”. 2011
García, M. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: "Calculo de
las demandas de riego en la Cuenca del Río
Sajhuaya desde 1975 hasta 2009”. La Paz, Bolivia.
2011
IPCC. Documento Técnico VI: El cambio climático y
el agua. 2008
PNUD. “Tras las huellas del cambio climático en
Bolivia: Estado del arte del conocimiento sobre
adaptación al cambio climático, agua y seguridad
alimentaria”. 2011
Ramírez, E. & Machaca, A. Informe del Proyecto
Illimani: “Restitución fotogramétrica, Nevado Illimani.
1963-2009. “La Paz, Bolivia. 2010
Ramírez E. “Deshielo del Nevado Mururata y su
impacto sobre los recursos hídricos de la cuenca de
Palca”. La Paz: Agua Sustentable, 2009.
García, M., & Taboada, C. Informe del Proyecto
Illimani: "Vulnerabilidad y adaptación al cambio
climático en comunidades de la cuenca del rio
Sajhuaya". La Paz, Bolivia. 2010
15
www.aguasustentable.org
http://glaciares.org.bo/illimani/
16