Washington State`s Housing Market

Transcription

Washington State’s
Housing Market
4th Quarter 2013
WA S H I N G TO N C E N T E R F O R R E A L E S TAT E R E S E A R C H | R U N S TA D C E N T E R F O R R E A L E S TAT E S T U D I E S
C O L L E G E O F B U I LT E N V I R O N M E N T S | F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 4
Washington Market Highlights: Fourth Quarter 2013
u Existing home sales declined in the
fourth quarter by 8.6 percent to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 91,340
units, and increased 9.2 percent above a
year earlier.
u Building permit activity increased 16.8
percent from a year earlier, totaling 6,956
new units authorized. Single-family
permits declined 4.2 percent.
u The median price home sold in
Washington during the third quarter
was $256,300, 6.0 percent above a year
earlier.
u Housing affordability for both all buyers
and first-time buyers increased slightly
from the third quarter as prices declined
seasonally and interest rates backed off
a bit after the mid-summer spike. The
All-Buyer Housing Affordability Index
stayed above 100 in 38 of Washington’s
39 counties. The first-time buyers index
exceeded 80 in 31 counties.
u Inventories of homes available for sale
totaled 27,557 single-family homes at
the end of the quarter, 2.8 percent above
the year-ago level. This inventory level
represented a 4.3 month supply. Supply
was especially limited in greater Seattle.
u Seriously delinquent mortgages declined
for the sixth consecutive quarter. The
51,765 Washington mortgages which
are at least 90-days past due or in the
foreclosure process represent a decline
of over 4,000 from three months ago and
22,900 in the last year.
Change
Change
inin
Home
Home
Sales,
Sales,
SAAR
SAAR
Change
Home
Sales,
SAAR
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-30.0%
2006:Q1
2007:Q1
2008:Q1
2009:Q1
2010:Q1
2011:Q1
2012:Q1
2013:Q1
2006:Q1
2007:Q1
2008:Q1
2009:Q1
2010:Q1
2011:Q1
2012:Q1
2013:Q1
Percent
Change
in
Median
Home
Price
from
Year
Ago
Percent
Percent
Change
Change
in Median
in Median
Home
Home
Price
Price
from
from
Year
Year
AgoAgo
20.0%20.0%
Change in Home Sales, SAAR
30.0%
15.0%15.0%
20.0%
10.0%10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-5.0%-5.0%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 2013:Q1
2006:Q1
2006:Q12007:Q1
2007:Q12008:Q1
2008:Q12009:Q1
2009:Q12010:Q1
2010:Q12011:Q1
2011:Q12012:Q1
2012:Q12013:Q1
2013:Q1
Washington State’s Housing Market is a
quarterly report to the Washington Real
Estate Commission and the Washington
State Department of Licensing.
Prepared by:
Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies
College of Built Environments
University of Washington
424 Gould Hall, Box 355740
Seattle, WA 98195-5740
Phone: (206) 685-9597
Web: wcrer.be.washington.edu
E-mail: [email protected]
Associate Director for Research:
Glenn E. Crellin
© Copyright 2014 by the Runstad
Center for Real Estate Studies. All rights
reserved.
The Runstad Center for Real Estate
Studies will grant permission to use or
reprint material from Washington State’s
Housing Market under appropriate
circumstances.
SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
Washington State’s Housing Market
is published quarterly by the Runstad
Center for Real Estate Studies The
annual subscription price is $60 plus tax.
Phone us, or visit our Website for more
information.
Survey Description
Publication: Washington State’s Housing Market is a publication of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at
the University of Washington.
Coverage: At least quarterly, the Runstad Center receives data on single-family home sales from each multiple
listing service located in, or providing market coverage to, Washington communities. In 2012, data on nearly
69,000 home transactions were received and processed.
Sales Volume: Estimated total sales value of single-family homes in each county is compiled using a scale factor
to transform the MLS sales to market totals. This scaling is required since a significant number of transactions
are always completed as “for sale by owner” or are assisted by real estate licensees who do not participate in
a MLS. Scale factors were developed by analyzing the relationship between MLS sales and measures of total
single-family sales derived from the 2010 American Community Survey and data from individual county
assessors.
Data in this report represents closed sales transactions.
Sales Price: Median sales prices represent that price at which half the sales in a county (or the state) took place
at higher prices, and half at lower prices. Since the Runstad Center does not receive sales data on individual
transactions (only aggregated statistics), the median is determined by the proportion of sales in a given
range of prices required to reach the midway point in the distribution. While average prices are not reported,
they tend to be 15-20 percent above the median.
Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as appreciation rates. Prices are influenced by
changes in cost and changes in the characteristics of homes actually sold. The table on prices by number
of bedrooms provides a better measure of appreciation of types of homes than the overall median, but it is
still subject to composition issues (such as square footage of home, quality of finishes and size of lot, among
others).
There is a degree of seasonal variation in reported selling prices. Prices tend to hit a seasonal peak in
summer, then decline through the winter before turning upward again, but home sales prices are not
seasonally adjusted. Users are encouraged to limit price comparisons to the same time period in previous
years.
Seasonal Adjustment: Volume statistics are seasonally adjusted using the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment
originally developed at the US Bureau of the Census and used for adjustment of most economic statistics by
government agencies. The procedure includes adjusting for trading day variation—the number of Mondays,
Tuesdays, etc., in a particular month or quarter. This type of variation in the data was found to be significant.
Sales in each county are first seasonally adjusted, then aggregated to yield the statewide statistics.
Seasonal indices are based on quarterly single-family home sales activity dating from first quarter 1994. New
seasonal adjustment factors are constructed at the conclusion of each year. Data for the three preceding
years are revised using these new seasonal factors.
Seasonally-adjusted annual rate values are based on single quarter sales and indicate the number of sales
which would take place in a year if the relative sales pace were to continue. They are not a forecast of annual
activity and do not include the sales observations of previous quarters.
Metropolitan/Micropolitan Areas: This report uses the definitions of metropolitan and micropolitan areas by
the Federal Office of Management and Budget. Briefly, metropolitan areas are larger communities with at
least 50,000 people in the urban core. Micropolitan areas are smaller cities, with 10,000-50,000 people in
the urban core. Currently Washington has 21 metropolitan counties in 14 metropolitan areas (or divisions)
and nine micropolitan areas. Metropolitan and microplitan area designations were revised in February 2013
based on Census 2010. Some rural counties are now included in metropolitan or micropolitan areas because
of commuting patterns.
Month’s Supply: Estimates of month’s supply of homes on the market compare the number of total MLS listings
at the end of the quarter to the seasonally-adjusted annual rate sales for that county [(Listings/SAAR) x 12 =
month’s supply]. It is interpreted as how long the current inventory available for sale would be able to meet
current demand if no additional homes were listed for sale.
Housing Affordability: Two measures of housing affordability are presented. Each should be interpreted as the
degree to which a median income family (or typical first-time buyer household) could afford to purchase the
assumed home. The following table lays out the assumptions. In all cases it is assumed the lender would be
willing to fund the loan so long as the principal and interest payments do not exceed 25 percent of gross
income. Index values above 100 indicate housing is affordable to the specified income group.
Home Price
Downpayment
Mortgage Term
Income
Mortgage Insurance
Fourth Quarter 2013
Issued February 2014
Mortgage Rate
All Buyers
First Time
Median
85% Median
20%
10%
30 years
30 years
Median Family*
70% Median Household*
No
Yes (add 0.25% to mortgage rate)
FHFA estimate of effective rate loans closed, existing homes
* Family income is two or more individuals related by blood, marriage, or adoption. Household income includes
single persons living alone.
Fourth Quarter 2013
Washington State’s Housing Market in the closing quarter of 2013 was a bit mixed, with a quarter-toquarter decline in home sales while the market improved considerably from a year earlier. Housing
construction saw continued strength in multifamily while single-family permits dropped a bit. Home prices
statewide were significantly above a year earlier, but local results were uneven. Housing affordability
increased slightly from the third quarter, but was lower than a year earlier. Inventory available for sale
remains low, although an improvement from a year ago. Seriously delinquent mortgages have been
reduced significantly in the last year, but remain above historic levels. Mortgage interest rates, after
jumping during the summer stabilized late in the year. Overall economic conditions in Washington, and
especially in greater Seattle, reflect clear recovery from the Great Recession as employment growth has
been consistent and unemployment declining.
Home Resales
Washington existing home sales market during the fourth quarter was less robust than three months
earlier, declining by 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 91,340 homes sold. Significantly,
this level is still 9.2 percent higher than the closing months of 2012. These “mixed” results suggest that the
market is achieving a measure of stability after the roller coaster of the last 10 years.
Quarter-to-quarter sales increased in only 10 of Washington’s 39 counties, led by a 37.5 percent jump in
rural Adams County. Four other small counties had double-digit improvements from the third quarter.
Declines were more prevalent, ranging from a 23.3 percent drop in the seasonally adjusted annual rate in
Grant County (Moses Lake). Fourteen additional counties had a sales rate at least 10 percent lower than
three months earlier. Among the 17 metropolitan counties, 15 saw a slower sales rate than during the third
quarter, with a drop of 11.8 percent in Benton and Franklin counties (TriCities) leading the way. Sales in
Cowlitz County were flat while the lone increase was 7.9 percent in Skagit County.
Home sales activity is
always concentrated in the
urban markets. Collectively
the 17 counties identified
by the Federal Office of
Management and budget
Units, SAAR
Smaller counties routinely have the greatest swings in housing market activity when expressed as
percentages. The fourth quarter results again illustrated this very clearly. After last quarter huge surge,
the seasonally adjusted sales rate in Skamania County declined by 70 percent, serving as the counterpoint
to the strength in Wahkiakum County. Excluding all the rural counties from the analysis of extremes,
quarter-to-quarter sales changes ranged from an improvement of 24.4 percent in Grays Harbor County to
a decline of 15.0 percent in Grant County. The state’s largest market, King County, reported a sales rate of
29,200 units, 6.3 percent above the previous quarter. Even among the micropolitan (smaller urban) market,
decline from the previous
quarter were pervasive.
Existing Home Sales
Existing
Home Sales
Six of those nine counties
had declines, with only
170,000
Adams County (Ritzville/
150,000
Othello) and Clallam
County (Port Angeles/
130,000
Sequim) showing increases.
110,000
90,000
70,000
50,000
Washington State’s Housing Market - Fourth Quarter 2013
3
as part of metropolitan areas accounted for an annual sales rate of 80,460 homes, 88.1 percent of the
statewide total. The next group, characterized as micropolitan areas, is nine counties with a sales rate in
the fourth quarter of 7,300 units, 8.0 percent of the total. The remaining 13 counties had a total annual
sales rate of 3,580 units, 3.9 percent of the statewide total.
This report also includes the annual sales totals for 2013. Throughout the state a total of 93,730 singlefamily homes (excluding new construction) were sold last year, 16.1 percent more than in 2012. This
represented the second consecutive significant annual increase in home sales. Sales in 2013 were 37.3
percent above 2008’s recession low, but they were still 28.2 percent below 2005’s high water mark. Only
Adams County had lower sales than in 2012, its second straight slide. Sales were unchanged in Garfield
County, which has the smallest population in the state, and increased by less than ten percent in San Juan
and Snohomish counties. The market in Snohomish County was held back late in the year by uncertainty
over whether Boeing’s 777X would be built locally.
Housing Construction
Building permits for a total of 6,956 housing units were issued during the fourth quarter of 2013 in the 32
counties where some or all of the permit issuing jurisdictions provide monthly data to the Census Bureau.
This represents an increase in permit activity of 16.8 percent compared to the construction rate in the
October-December quarter of 2012. Since the building permit data is not presented at seasonally adjusted
annual rates, it is not surprising that there were fewer permits issued than three months earlier.
Additional residential construction automatically generates increases in construction employment.
However, the multipliers of different types of construction indicate the impacts are uneven. During the
fourth quarter the performance of the single-family and multifamily construction markets was quite
unbalanced, with multifamily permits increasing about 48 percent compared to a year ago, while singlefamily permits declined just over four percent compared to late 2012. The apartment construction market
remains robust, even with some analysts suggesting overbuilding is likely.
Total value of residential building permits issued during the fourth quarter was $1,380.2 million, 17.6
percent above a year ago, while the single-family permit value was up only 1.4 percent to $910.7 million.
These statistics suggest that the value per apartment unit has declined, but that the permit value of each
single-family home has increased. It should be remembered that in both cases the reported values are for
the structure only, not including the land.
The greatest increase in the
total number of building
permits issued in percentage
terms was 138.3 percent in
Thurston County, followed
by a 103.9 percent jump in
Whatcom County. It is clear
in both of those counties that
a couple of new apartment
buildings were responsible
for most of the construction
bulge. Looking solely at
single-family construction,
11 counties saw increased
permitting – only two of
which reported less than
4
BuildingPermits
Permits
Building
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
SF
Multi
Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies / University of Washington
a ten percent increase compared to a year ago. Of the 13 counties which reported slower single-family
permitting, ten saw a decline of at least ten percent. Even in the greater Seattle market there were fewer
single family permits issued in each county except King, which had a 4.5 percent increase.
Total permit value increased in 13 counties, declined in 14 and was unchanged (no fourth quarter permits
in either year) in two. The greatest jump in permit value was 65.6 percent in Kittitas County (Ellensburg)
where all the permits were issued for single-family homes. The greatest drop in permit value was 76.6
percent in Walla Walla County, where the absence of significant multifamily construction in 2013 was
readily apparent. King County clearly drives the residential construction market, with 46.2 percent of total
permit value and 36.2 percent of single-family permit value concentrated in Washington’s most populous
county.
Only a sample of Washington permit issuing jurisdictions participate in the Census Bureau monthly data
collection effort, and others tend to miss deadlines and are reported by the government with imputed
values. The next issue of Washington State’s Housing Market will include complete annual data which fills
in many of the gaps.
Home Prices
While the numbers of home sales are important to analysts, most households only look at the rate of home
sales when they are actively buying or selling. Between transactions, consumers are more interested in
how the value of their homes (and the equity they have accumulated) is changing. Economists look at
statistics on median home prices, like those presented here. More recently so-called repeat sales measures
(e.g. Case-Shiller or FHFA) monitor changes in prices of specific homes, becoming better measures of
home price appreciation. In an effort to more accurately represent changes in prices of types of homes,
Washington State’s Housing Market, like the statistics on new home sales produced by the Census Bureau,
attempt to standardize the quality/size of homes to minimize the composition changes inherent in median
(and especially average) prices. While the values produced by each of these methods differ, they are all
currently indicating that home prices in Washington have been increasing above the inflation rate for
several months, although significant variation across markets remains.
The median selling price of a single-family home in Washington during the fourth quarter of 2013 was
$256,300. This represents a median price 6.0 percent higher than the fourth quarter of last year. This is the
seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year median price increases, after 18 quarters of price declines.
The home price index produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is the only other major
statewide measure of home price performance. Since there is a significant delay in releasing this statistic,
the third quarter of 2013 is the most recent available. This measure is a “repeat sales” measure, meaning
that it focuses on price changes of properties that have sold more than once, measuring changes in prices.
Since the data is released as an index, not an easily understood price, the change from a year ago is the
only meaningful measure.
Prices in Washington using
Median
Home
Prices
Median
Home
Prices
this measure increased 11.9
percent in the third quarter $320,000
compared to a year earlier. $280,000
Washington’s appreciation $240,000
was 5th highest, and states $200,000
with more rapid price
$160,000
increases were all areas
$120,000
which were harder hit
during the recession.
5
Median prices ranged from a high of $421,700 in King County to a low of $70,000 in rural Lincoln County.
Among the metropolitan population centers, the range was from King County’s high to $147,000 in Cowlitz
County (Longview), nearly $275,000 below the median in metro Seattle. The micropolitan areas exhibited
variations from a low median of $121,000 in Grays Harbor County (Aberdeen) to a high of $258,100 in
Island County (Oak Harbor). While these micropolitan counties are in the same relative positions as
last year, the Grays Harbor median increased 7.7 percent while the median in Island County declined 4.3
percent.
Price changes also varied widely. Median prices were lower than a year ago in 16 of Washington’s 39
counties. Lincoln County had the largest median price decline (54.8 percent) while Columbia County had
a median price jump of 38.6 percent over the last year. As usual, these wide swings in prices and their
changes in the small markets are primarily due to the small number of sales in a given quarter.
Among the metropolitan counties the range of price changes was a high of a 12.6 percent increase in
Snohomish County to a decline of 4.5 percent in Yakima County, which was one of four metropolitan
counties with a lower median price than a year ago. Among the nine micropolitan areas, five reported
higher median prices, with Grays Harbor County seeing the greatest increase in the group. The greatest
price decline in a micropolitan area was 16.6 percent in Lewis County (Centralia).
Annual price estimates are a key element of the fourth quarter report. Looking at all the sales over the
calendar year smooths out seasonal variations in home sales (even though prices are not seasonally
adjusted). Statewide the median price during 2013 was $253,300, 8.2 percent higher than in 2012. The
highest annual median price was $415,000 in King County, while the lowest was $67,500 in Lincoln County,
the only jurisdiction with a sub-$100,000 median. The greatest increase in annual median prices was
15.3 percent in Snohomish County while there was a 18.7 percent decline in the annual median price in
Lincoln County. Only seven counties saw declines in median prices over the last year. Limiting the analysis
to metropolitan counties, the most rapid increase in annual medians was the Snohomish County increase
mentioned previously, followed closely by a 13.7 percent jump in King County. Clearly the strength in the
greater Seattle marketplace is leading the recovery in home prices, although they remain well below the
peak.
Prices by Bedroom
While median prices are more reflective of the typical home available in the market; they are influenced
by changes in the composition of homes sold. A reflection of what is happening in the market is illustrated
by looking at price behavior by types of homes, here represented by the number of bedrooms, the most
consistently reported physical characteristic. Accordingly, this report includes the median price home by
number of bedrooms in an attempt to standardize quality somewhat.
The median price 2-bedroom single-family home (remember, these statistics do not include condominium
apartments) sold statewide during the fourth quarter was $163,400, 3.4 percent higher than a year ago.
Moving to the much more typical 3-bedroom homes, the median increased 6.5 percent between the
fourth quarters of 2012 and 2013, to $232,600. Among the homes with four or more bedrooms the median
sales price was $337,200, a jump of 9.9 percent over the last year. These statistics reinforce the impression
that housing prices are increasing across the board, and that the top end of the market is outperforming
smaller homes.
Small samples often cause county-level detail on prices by number of bedrooms to exhibit unusual
patterns, but larger communities generally have enough sales activity to offset the problems. Accordingly,
Washington State’s Housing Market limits analysis of the bedroom detail to metropolitan counties only.
The median price of a 2-bedroom home in Whatcom County (Bellingham) declined by 7.1 percent between
the fourth quarters of 2012 and 2013. Meanwhile in Walla Walla County smaller home prices increased
6
by 72.4 percent. In the 3-bedroom category
Snohomish County showed the biggest
increase (16.2 percent) while Cowlitz County
sustained a 5.3 percent slide. Larger homes
experienced a price decline of 7.5 percent
in Chelan County with the other extreme an
increase of 19.0 percent in Asotin County.
Cowlitz County had the distinction of having
the lowest median price for two-bedroom
homes ($81,200), despite a 24.9 percent
increase in the last year. For three-bedroom
homes the low price distinction was also in
Cowlitz County ($148,700). The lowest median
price for homes with four or more bedrooms
was $193,300 in Yakima County. Regardless
of number of bedrooms the most expensive
urban homes were found in King County, with
Snohomish County the runner-up.
4th Quarter 2013 Washington Home Sales
Washington Home Sales by Number of Bedrooms,
by Number of Bedrooms
2013 4Q
2 BR, 15%
4+ BR, 36%
3 BR, 49%
Housing Affordability
Households and families generally focus on the relationship between their potential mortgage payment
and their income when deciding on home purchases. Of course, those relationships are influenced by
lending standards, access to down payments, other recurring financial obligations and their confidence
in the overall economy. After the unusual home purchase market during the recession and early stages of
recover, these traditional affordability standards are descriptive of the current environment.
Mortgage interest rates declined a bit in late 2013 after a spike in early summer. Prices and mortgage rates
combine with income to determine the affordability of housing. Income for the majority of households has
continued to increase slowly, at least in nominal terms. On balance, the lower mortgage rates and higher
incomes offset the higher home prices, pushing housing affordability a bit higher than recorded in the third
quarter, but homes were clearly less affordable statewide than a year earlier.
The Runstad Center calculates two measures of affordability. The all-buyer index measures the degree
to which a median income family (two or more individuals related by blood, marriage or adoption) can
afford mortgage payments on a median price home, assuming a 20 percent downpayment and a 30-year
mortgage at prevailing mortgage interest rates. The calculation assumes the family can spend 25 percent
of their gross income on principal and interest payments. These assumptions fairly represent the current
home purchase market and can compare affordability to other time periods. This is the same analysis
approach which has been used by the National Association of Realtors® since 1982.
The second measure is the first-time buyer index. It is computed in the same general way, but it assumes
a less expensive home (85 percent of median), a lower downpayment (10 percent), lower income (70
percent of median household income, including single persons) and a requirement that mortgage
insurance be included. These general affordability assumptions are appropriate for many, if not most,
households looking to purchase their first home.
In the fourth quarter the statewide all-buyer index was 149.4, meaning the median income family in
Washington had 49.4 percent more income than the minimum required to afford the median price
home—a slight improvement from the third quarter, but well below the 173.1 all-buyer index recorded in
the closing quarter of 2012.
7
The county-level all-buyer affordability measures in the fourth quarter ranged from a high of 406.4 in
Lincoln County to a low of 82.8 in ever-costly San Juan County, the only county with an all-buyer index less
than 100. Despite the fact that most counties had affordability measures below a year ago, by and large
housing in Washington remains quite affordable for median income families. Among the metropolitan
counties the range was from a low affordability of 111.7 in King County to a high of 211.2 in Cowlitz County.
For the micropolitan areas the greatest affordability was in Grays Harbor County (226.1) and the least was
in Island County (147.6).
The housing affordability index for
first-time buyers statewide in the fourth
quarter was 83.5, down from 95.8 in the
closing quarter of 2012. However, the
index improved from the 80.6 reading
in the third quarter. Since an index
value of 80 is generally considered to
offer meaningful choice and access
to ownership housing for first-time
buyers, this current market presents a
moderate opportunity for well-qualified
first-time buyers to enter the ranks of
homeowners. The biggest problem
remains a lack of properties on the
market from which to choose.
Affordability Index
Housing
Index
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
First-time
All Buyers
The first-time buyer affordability index exceeded 100 in 19 counties during the fourth quarter (compared to
25 counties a year ago). Accordingly, achieving homeownership is still a significant challenge in many areas,
especially as rents increases remain high in many communities, especially in greater Seattle, making it
particularly difficult to accumulate a downpayment. The counties which present the biggest challenges do
not change much. San Juan and King’s high prices, Jefferson’s resource-based employment, and Whitman’s
student population keep those counties especially challenging. Among the metropolitan counties, the
greatest affordability for first-time buyers was in Benton County (123.1) and was least in King County (61.9).
For the micropolitan areas, the most affordable for current renters to move to home ownership was Lewis
County, while Whitman County presented the greatest hurdle.
Availability of Affordable Housing
Rather than rely on a single measure of housing affordability, it is helpful to examine home affordability
for several income levels and compare this with the available housing inventory. Moreover, higher-income
households typically make larger downpayments (perhaps assisted from equity acquired from sale of an
existing home), while lower income households (including our hypothetical first-time buyer) may only be
able to make a minimal downpayment. The four income/asset groups considered are:
•
•
•
•
$30,000 income, 5% downpayment
$150,000 income, 35% downpayment.
In each case it is assumed that the household is willing to spend 25 percent of gross income on principal
and interest payments and overall debt levels are average. It is also assumed that these buyers could find
mortgages at an interest rate of 4.50 percent which is marginally above the prevailing rate during the
quarter). Based upon these income, downpayment, and debt-service assumptions we can estimate the
8
purchase price of an affordable home for these income groups. The table below shows the maximum
affordable home for each of these income groups based upon the financial assumptions just described.
The table clearly illustrates how income growth, coupled with ownership of homes with generally
increasing values can move a household up the ladder of homeownership (providing they retain the
equity in their existing home and avoid home equity loans or second mortgages). When reviewing these
calculations the reader should recall that the median family income in the state during the second quarter
was $73,900, although the county-level medians ranged from a low of $47,100 in Ferry County to a high
of $90,900 in King County. Similarly, household incomes, which tend to be lower by definition, had a
statewide value of $58,122, with
county-level incomes ranging
Affordable Home Purchase Prices for Selected Income/Asset Groups
from $32,165 in Ferry County to
P&I Expense Mortgage
Maximum Home Approx. Percent
a high of $70,898 in King County.
Income
Downpayment
(25% of Income)
Amount
Purchase Price of Home Market
These median income values
$30,000
$625 $123,351
$6,492
$129,843
14.0%
demonstrate that the first two
$60,000
$1,250 $246,701
$27,412
$274,113
54.3%
income/asset categories are
$90,000
$1,875 $370,052
$92,513
$462,565
81.6%
more relevant for most state
$150,000
$3,125 $616,754
$332,098
$948,852
95.7%
residents.
This assessment has described the maximum affordable home price for these income/asset groups, but the
question remains as to how much opportunity there is to buy a home within the affordable price range.
The final column in the table indicates the proportion of homes currently on the market priced below the
identified affordability threshold. The affordable share of homes on the market increases for each income/
asset group, as expected. Significantly, the proportion of affordable homes declined compared to a year
ago for each range.
Remember, these are estimates since these MLS systems typically handle around 80 percent of the market
but do not cover all areas of the state. Also, recall that these are offered prices and actual sales may occur
below (or above) these prices, depending upon local market conditions and the motivations of buyers and
sellers. Additionally, there may be additional affordable homes available through foreclosure options, but
buyers must be wary of potential defects in those units.
The statewide data shows 4.2 percent of homes statewide on the market at the end of December were
priced under $80,000 (compared to 4.4 percent a year ago). No more than 2.0 percent of homes on the
market are priced less than $80,000 in eight Washington counties. These statistics emphasize that in many
parts of the state modest income households, especially those looking for their first home, still face very
limited access to the ownership housing market.
Including homes priced at or below $160,000 raises the affordable percentage statewide to 22.2 percent.
Among the metropolitan counties the proportion of homes priced less than $160,000 ranged from a low of
3.6 percent in King County to a high of 42.8 percent in Yakima County. Both represent a reduction in lower
priced homes compared to three months ago.
Available Inventory
Economics analyzes demand and supply looking for equilibrium or balance. Existing home sales, discussed
earlier, is the measure of demand. Inventory available for sale represents the supply side of the equation.
During the period of rapid home sales and escalating prices there was excess demand and very limited
supply. During 2008 and well into the recession while sales plummeted, inventories available for sale
surged. As the recession continued sellers were unable to accept the lower prices, the homes were pulled
off the market. Now, both the sales rate and inventory are higher, but the sales have increased more
rapidly, keeping pressure on supply.
9
Listings available for sale throughout Washington, at the end of the December 2013, stood 2.8 percent
above the listing inventory a year earlier. There were only 27,557 homes listed on the various Multiple
Listing Services, only 751more homes on the market compared to last year. It must be emphasized
that these counts do not include any homes being offered for sale directly by the owners, without the
assistance of real estate licensees, or those marketed by real estate licensees who are not members of a
multiple listing service, and may not include homes marketed by financial institutions after foreclosure.
In addition, new subdivision may not list all the available homes on the multiple. While these exceptions
mean the inventory is really a bit higher than tallied, the additions are generally small. The bank-owned
shadow inventory is especially difficult to enumerate.
King County alone represents 3,127 active listings, 6.2 percent more than a year earlier. For King County,
only 2012 inventory available for sale at a yearend was lower since WCRER/Runstad began monitoring
listings in 2000. Active listings increased compared to a year earlier in 14 of the 37 counties for which
listing data is available. The most rapid growth of listing inventory was 36.5 percent in both Adams and
Snohomish counties. The increase in Adams is attributed to the fact that MLS participation is quite new,
while in Snohomish County concern about the future of Boeing 777X production caused some owners to
list their homes now in case the production line went elsewhere, making their homes more difficult to sell.
Two small population counties, Lincoln and Skamania, saw reductions in inventory available of at least 20
percent.
Months
Units
Listings alone, however, only
Listing
Inventory
Supply
Listing
Inventoryand
andMonth's
Month’s Supply
tell part of the story. They
60,000
14
need to be linked to prevailing
12
50,000
sales rates to determine how
the current availability might
10
40,000
influence aggregate housing
8
markets in the months ahead.
30,000
6
The Runstad Center computes
20,000
estimates of the month’s supply
4
of housing by price range.
10,000
2
A month’s supply statistic
0
0
measures how long it would
05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1
take to sell all the homes
Listings
Mo Supply
currently available for sale if
no new listings were added
to the inventory. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the quarter is compared to the end-ofquarter listing inventory to determine the month’s supply. This prevents higher sales rates in previous
quarters from producing unrealistically optimistic estimates of market activity. Similarly, it prevents
exceptionally low inventories and actual sales during the slow winter months from making inventories
seem exceptionally large relative to sales.
The quarter-end month’s supply for Washington was 4.3 months, compared to 5.8 months a year ago
and 7.2 months two years ago. A 5-7 month inventory is considered normal or balanced, consistent with
changes in median prices which are similar to overall inflation rates. Accordingly, the current market would
usually be characterized as modestly undersupplied, but individual local markets are clearly out of balance,
showing both shortages and excess inventory. These imbalances suggest the state will continue to see
markets with significant price increases while others see price stability or declines. Until more listings are
processed, the behavior of home prices will be difficult to predict.
While the statewide market is “almost balanced”, many individual local markets or price ranges are
oversupplied or have clear shortages of homes available for sale. The King County market has the greatest
10
shortage of listings, with only a 2.0 month supply where even the $500.000 plus price range has only a 2.2
month supply. Even with the surge in listings in late 2014, the Snohomish County market is also stressed
with a supply of only 2.8 months. The higher-price market in Snohomish County would be considered
balanced, however with a 5.4 month supply. Meanwhile, six Washington counties still have inventory
levels capable of sustaining the current sales rate for at least a year even if no new listings come on the
market. At the end of 2012 there were 11 such oversupplied markets. These are places which clearly
have an excess supply of homes on the market today, where price declines may continue into next year.
The inventory imbalance remained especially pronounced in Northeast Washington (Stevens/Ferry/Pend
Oreille counties), where current inventories could sustain the market for 44 months at current sales rates.
It should be noted, however, that this represents an improvement from a 84 month supply at the end of
2012.
Most individual markets show deeper inventories compared to sales as prices increase, but the statewide
statistic was remarkably uniform, ranging from a low of 3.6 months for homes priced below $80,000 to a
high of 4.8 months for homes priced between $80,000 and $159,999. The most expensive price range was
4.7 months. This represents a reduction in statewide months’ supply for expensive homes from both last
quarter and last year. Moving beyond the greater Seattle area, however, shows most communities with a
surplus of homes priced above $500,000, with 20 counties having enough expensive homes to supply their
market for over a year (often significantly over). A few additional counties are counted as not available
because they had no sales in the top price range which would have resulted in dividing by zero when
attempting to calculate the months’ supply. These specialized homes always have a limited market, so
the “oversupply” is not generally a problem leading to significant price reductions – just longer marketing
periods.
Market Risks
Economists are more optimistic about 2014 than they have been recently. For example, after several
difficult legislative sessions, the Washington Legislature is not wrestling with how to fund a deficit this
year. Job growth is stronger than recently, especially in the Seattle area, and the Federal Reserve under
new Chair Janet Yellen is signaling they will continue to ease the economy toward less governmental
intervention.
The last two months releases on employment and unemployment have been both disappointing and
contradictory. The employment growth has lagged estimates, but the unemployment rate has continued
to decline, and those declines are not attributed to potential employees leaving the workforce as had been
reported earlier.
The rental housing market is still strong, with both significant numbers of new rental units becoming
available and rents increasing rapidly. These rent increases could encourage first-time buyers to move
toward homeownership, but at the same time make it more difficult for them to save the requisite
downpayment. Some have expressed concern that a glut of new apartments will overtake the rental
market and result in declining rents, but most projections of employment growth in the areas with the
most rapid construction suggest there will be qualified tenants for most of the units in the active and
proposed pipeline.
Mortgage interest rates have not been a risk factor for quite a while, with the exception of a spike during
the summer. While rates have remained above the levels of a year ago, there has been some downward
drift in recent weeks, and the expectation for 2014 is for gradually increasing rates. Some potential
buyers will need to be reminded that even with the increases the prevailing rates in the mortgage market
are substantially below the averages of the last 40 years, making the interest side of home purchases a
veritable bargain.
11
While the serious delinquency and foreclosure market remains more significant than historical averages,
the improvement in the last year has been noteworthy. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations
indicates that there were an estimated 51,765 mortgages in Washington which are at least 90 days past
due or in foreclosure at the end of December. This represents a reduction of roughly 4,000 distressed
mortgages in the last three months and 22,900 in the last year. However, 4.59 percent of outstanding
mortgages are still seriously delinquent, more than double the proportion from most time periods prior
to 2008. The reduction in seriously delinquent mortgages is driven by both improving prices and clearing
some properties through foreclosure after the hiatus caused by the implementation of Washington’s
Foreclosure Fairness Act with its mediation provisions. During 2013 RealtyTrac reported there were 14,978
completed foreclosures in Washington, 29.7 percent more than during 2012. However, that increase was
observed earlier in the year. Comparing the last three months of 2013 to the same time a year earlier,
completed foreclosures declined by 26.2 percent statewide.
This report has highlighted the fact that housing markets in Washington are locally distinct. The greater
Seattle counties have clearly recovered more strongly than markets in other parts of the state, both in
terms of the numbers of homes sold and median prices. Strong measures of affordability, coupled with
increasing prices and marginally higher mortgage rates are drawing larger numbers of buyers, especially
first-time owners, off the sidelines and into the housing market. However, the shortage of properties
available for sale, especially at lower price ranges, suggests the recovery could easily stall if either home
prices or mortgage interest rates increase significantly.
Serious
Delinquency
andForeclosure
Foreclosure
Serious
Delinquency and
12.0
% of Mortgages
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
0.0
08:Q1
08:Q2
08:Q3
08:Q4
09:Q1
09:Q2
09:Q3
09:Q4
10:Q1
10:Q2
10:Q3
10:Q4
11:Q1
11:Q2
11:Q3
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
2.0
US
WA
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (www.MBAA.org/)
Quarterly Foreclosures Completed in
Quarterly Foreclosures
Completed in Washington
Washington
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: RealtyTrac (www.realtytrac.com/)
12
HOUSING MARKET SNAPSHOT
HOUSING
MARKET SNAPSHOT
State of Washington
and Counties
State
of Washington
Counties
Fourth
Quarter and
2013
Fourth Quarter 2013
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
Home Resales (units)
% Change
SAAR
(last qtr)
(year ago)
110
180
2,690
750
1,000
6,480
140
1,210
390
100
900
40
690
1,220
1,420
500
26,240
3,590
820
250
800
90
890
400
380
270
11,400
220
2,060
280
9,790
6,170
800
3,600
110
620
2,610
350
1,780
91,340
37.5%
-10.0%
-11.8%
-5.1%
4.2%
-8.9%
16.7%
0.0%
-9.3%
11.1%
-11.8%
0.0%
-23.3%
-17.0%
-15.0%
-18.0%
-9.5%
-10.7%
-11.8%
8.7%
-18.4%
-10.0%
0.0%
14.3%
-7.3%
3.8%
-10.8%
-4.3%
7.9%
33.3%
-9.4%
-5.5%
5.3%
-2.7%
-21.4%
-6.1%
-9.4%
-22.2%
-11.0%
-8.6%
57.1%
0.0%
7.6%
-1.3%
47.1%
8.7%
55.6%
22.2%
11.4%
25.0%
7.1%
33.3%
-6.8%
34.1%
20.3%
8.7%
3.5%
12.9%
12.3%
13.6%
15.9%
12.5%
12.7%
33.3%
26.7%
22.7%
10.9%
-4.3%
30.4%
86.7%
4.8%
12.0%
21.2%
17.3%
-31.3%
14.8%
6.1%
16.7%
4.7%
9.2%
Building Permits*
% Change
# (year ago)
219
29
30
428
0
25
30
0
142
0
-35.6%
-25.6%
50.0%
-1.6%
N/A
25.0%
-6.3%
N/A
-22.0%
N/A
12
36
11
3,186
104
47
33.3%
50.0%
0.0%
22.7%
-2.8%
51.6%
17
-58.5%
28
17
-3.4%
-10.5%
0
637
25
60
4
973
256
0
386
N/A
-3.3%
25.0%
9.1%
-50.0%
52.7%
-1.5%
N/A
138.3%
9
155
60
30
6,956
-85.5%
103.9%
66.7%
-28.6%
16.8%
Median Resale Price
% Change
$
(year ago)
$143,300
$154,100
$186,900
$231,400
$201,000
$227,700
$173,300
$147,000
$211,200
$101,000
$186,900
$154,100
$161,600
$121,000
$258,100
$269,400
$421,700
$239,000
$222,000
$184,000
$128,500
$70,000
$153,600
$155,000
$88,700
$101,000
$216,900
$416,700
$234,800
$180,000
$304,600
$171,900
$101,000
$220,300
$155,000
$180,000
$270,500
$208,300
$154,000
$256,300
5.6%
-1.5%
-1.3%
2.2%
2.8%
8.0%
38.6%
3.4%
3.7%
-36.4%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.2%
7.7%
-4.3%
3.6%
10.7%
0.2%
3.9%
-12.1%
-16.6%
-54.8%
-2.7%
2.2%
-17.1%
-36.4%
7.6%
24.1%
7.4%
-10.0%
12.6%
0.4%
-36.4%
1.5%
19.2%
0.6%
3.5%
4.2%
-4.5%
6.0%
Housing
Affordability
Index (HAI)
First-Time
HAI
168.9
190.3
187.7
142.9
151.9
168.4
178.2
211.2
152.4
241.7
187.7
171.2
169.3
226.1
147.6
123.5
111.7
166.3
148.9
141.1
230.7
406.4
205.8
173.8
312.0
249.9
173.5
82.8
147.4
213.0
143.2
192.0
280.7
178.8
188.6
169.6
131.8
155.5
174.6
149.4
103.6
104.1
123.1
80.6
104.3
94.7
97.8
114.8
85.8
117.3
87.1
114.7
98.7
127.7
88.7
68.0
61.9
100.5
69.8
87.3
131.4
269.7
98.2
100.3
157.2
137.4
92.3
44.9
76.8
106.2
78.4
108.3
153.4
98.3
89.1
103.4
72.0
71.3
100.9
83.5
Source: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, University of Washington
Notes:
1. Home Resales are Runstad Center estimates based on MLS reports or deed recording
NOTES:
• Home Resales are Runstad Center estimates based on MLS reports or deed recording.
• SAAR means data presented at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates allowing quarter-to-quarter comparison.
• Building permits (total) are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Runstad Center/University of Washington
• Median prices are Runstad Center estimates. Half the homes sold at higher prices, half lower.
• Affordability index measures the ability of a typical family to make payments on median price resale home. It assumes 20% downpayment and
30-year amortizing mortgage. First-time buyer affordability index assumes a less expensive home, lower downpayment and lower income.
13
EXISTING
HOME
SALES
EXISTING
HOME
SALES
State
of of
Washington
and Counties
State
Washington
and Counties
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
County
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
150
190
2,470
680
710
5,130
60
650
330
60
830
40
490
1,000
1,080
420
23,200
3,070
650
170
680
70
670
300
280
170
9,390
240
1,330
120
9,340
4,690
490
3,100
60
580
2,160
270
1,580
76,900
140
170
2,460
750
720
5,320
80
950
330
70
820
30
740
910
1,180
460
23,740
3,120
740
160
670
80
700
260
270
190
9,730
250
1,500
220
9,790
4,930
550
3,340
70
570
2,270
320
1,630
80,230
70
180
2,500
760
680
5,960
90
990
350
80
840
30
740
910
1,180
460
25,360
3,180
730
220
690
80
790
300
300
220
10,280
230
1,580
150
9,340
5,510
660
3,070
160
540
2,460
300
1,700
83,670
110
230
2,750
890
860
5,830
70
1,050
420
110
920
40
790
960
1,300
470
25,180
3,390
710
270
750
110
1,020
390
290
330
11,510
260
1,510
180
9,860
6,310
960
3,580
90
590
2,370
350
1,660
88,470
70
260
2,700
820
980
6,600
110
960
580
90
910
50
730
920
1,410
460
27,450
4,000
870
200
820
90
730
270
350
250
12,100
200
1,830
170
10,540
5,800
720
3,750
80
760
2,620
400
1,660
93,310
80
200
3,050
790
960
7,110
120
1,210
430
90
1,020
40
900
1,470
1,670
610
28,980
4,020
930
230
980
100
890
350
410
260
12,780
230
1,910
210
10,810
6,530
760
3,700
140
660
2,880
450
2,000
99,960
110
180
2,690
750
1,000
6,480
140
1,210
390
100
900
40
690
1,220
1,420
500
26,240
3,590
820
250
800
90
890
400
380
270
11,400
220
2,060
280
9,790
6,170
800
3,600
110
620
2,610
350
1,780
91,340
Percent change
Last qtr
Year ago
37.5%
-10.0%
-11.8%
-5.1%
4.2%
-8.9%
16.7%
0.0%
-9.3%
11.1%
-11.8%
0.0%
-23.3%
-17.0%
-15.0%
-18.0%
-9.5%
-10.7%
-11.8%
8.7%
-18.4%
-10.0%
0.0%
14.3%
-7.3%
3.8%
-10.8%
-4.3%
7.9%
33.3%
-9.4%
-5.5%
5.3%
-2.7%
-21.4%
-6.1%
-9.4%
-22.2%
-11.0%
-8.6%
57.1%
0.0%
7.6%
-1.3%
47.1%
8.7%
55.6%
22.2%
11.4%
25.0%
7.1%
33.3%
-6.8%
34.1%
20.3%
8.7%
3.5%
12.9%
12.3%
13.6%
15.9%
12.5%
12.7%
33.3%
26.7%
22.7%
10.9%
-4.3%
30.4%
86.7%
4.8%
12.0%
21.2%
17.3%
-31.3%
14.8%
6.1%
16.7%
4.7%
9.2%
Number
of single-family
units
sold,
excluding
new
construction
Source:
Runstad
Center for Real
Estate
Studies,
University
of Washington
NOTES:
• Number of single-family units sold, excluding new construction.
Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research/Washington State University
14
EXISTING
HOME
SALES
EXISTING
HOME
SALES
State
of Washington
and Counties
State
of Washington
and Counties
NotSeasonally
Seasonally
Adjusted
Not
Adjusted
County
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
Year Total
2012
12:Q4
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
30
50
490
130
150
1,120
20
160
60
10
160
10
130
200
190
80
4,360
550
110
40
130
20
140
50
60
40
2,030
30
270
40
1,880
910
100
560
20
100
420
50
310
15,210
40
50
690
190
180
1,420
20
180
80
20
230
10
140
290
290
110
6,530
820
170
50
180
20
190
80
70
40
2,500
60
360
30
2,590
1,380
130
840
20
150
600
100
440
22,450
40
50
670
210
210
1,490
20
260
100
20
230
10
200
230
350
120
6,690
880
210
50
180
20
200
90
70
60
2,680
70
410
60
2,650
1,440
170
950
10
170
650
90
440
22,450
20
40
620
200
180
1,400
20
230
90
20
210
10
160
280
320
120
6,100
790
200
50
180
20
190
70
80
60
2,580
70
390
40
2,290
1,360
170
770
30
150
610
60
420
20,600
130
190
2,470
730
720
5,430
80
830
330
70
830
40
630
1,000
1,150
430
23,680
3,040
690
190
670
80
720
290
280
200
9,790
230
1,430
170
9,410
5,090
570
3,120
80
570
2,280
300
1,610
80,710
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
Year Total
13:Q4
2013
20
50
540
160
170
1,220
20
220
80
20
180
10
140
180
240
100
4,940
680
130
40
160
20
190
60
60
60
2,400
50
320
40
2,040
1,050
170
700
30
110
450
50
340
17,440
20
70
760
230
250
1,830
30
270
150
20
260
10
220
270
370
120
7,740
1,070
230
60
220
30
210
70
90
70
3,220
50
490
40
2,920
1,720
190
1,020
30
190
720
150
470
25,880
20
60
830
230
280
1,980
30
330
130
30
280
10
250
370
490
170
8,150
1,130
260
70
260
30
260
120
110
80
3,510
70
520
60
2,920
1,900
230
1,050
30
190
820
130
540
27,930
30
40
670
190
260
1,520
30
290
100
20
220
10
170
330
360
130
6,330
900
220
60
200
20
220
90
100
70
2,870
70
500
70
2,410
1,530
200
900
20
170
650
70
440
22,480
90
220
2,800
810
960
6,550
110
1,110
460
90
940
40
780
1,150
1,460
520
27,160
3,780
840
230
840
100
880
340
360
280
12,000
240
1,830
210
10,290
6,200
790
3,670
110
660
2,640
400
1,790
93,730
Percent
change
(Year ago)
50.0%
0.0%
8.1%
-5.0%
44.4%
8.6%
50.0%
26.1%
11.1%
0.0%
4.8%
0.0%
6.3%
17.9%
12.5%
8.3%
3.8%
13.9%
10.0%
20.0%
11.1%
0.0%
15.8%
28.6%
25.0%
16.7%
11.2%
0.0%
28.2%
75.0%
5.2%
12.5%
17.6%
16.9%
-33.3%
13.3%
6.6%
16.7%
4.8%
9.1%
Number of single-family units sold, excluding new construction
NOTES:
•
Number of single-family units sold, excluding new construction.
15
EXISTING HOME SALES
EXISTING
State
of WashingtonHOME
and CountiesSALES
Annual,
Not Seasonally
Adjusted
State 2000-2013;
of Washington
and Counties
Annual, 2000-2013
County
2000
2003
2006
2009
2011
2012
2013
% Ch
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
180
310
2,350
1,110
1,190
6,370
70
1,410
470
110
480
40
1,300
1,200
2,600
700
29,830
4,340
620
280
580
210
1,260
540
280
170
12,940
310
2,150
100
10,880
7,180
650
3,800
90
980
2,750
420
2,910
103,160
240
480
3,140
1,460
1,750
9,390
90
1,850
610
170
640
50
1,870
2,200
4,530
790
37,450
5,440
1,470
360
970
340
1,720
800
360
320
16,870
310
2,640
150
13,130
8,920
1,170
4,930
120
1,330
3,930
540
3,790
136,320
240
300
3,110
1,440
1,020
7,280
100
1,450
680
100
1,050
60
1,210
1,740
1,680
560
30,610
4,480
950
450
1,090
130
1,270
860
550
300
16,070
260
2,140
140
14,480
8,830
870
5,220
90
870
3,130
450
2,370
117,630
150
210
2,850
530
640
5,160
70
700
320
50
970
40
640
950
990
250
17,620
2,950
510
130
620
70
620
230
250
120
8,580
130
1,150
160
6,980
5,180
380
3,180
40
610
2,190
250
1,810
68,280
160
190
2,450
560
710
5,090
60
810
320
70
830
40
560
1,040
990
350
19,960
2,650
590
180
660
70
630
190
260
180
9,470
130
1,240
120
8,170
4,480
520
2,900
40
510
2,030
250
1,470
70,930
130
190
2,470
730
720
5,430
80
830
330
70
830
40
630
1,000
1,150
430
23,680
3,040
690
190
670
80
720
290
280
200
9,790
230
1,430
170
9,410
5,090
570
3,120
80
570
2,280
300
1,610
80,710
90
220
2,800
810
960
6,550
110
1,110
460
90
940
40
780
1,150
1,460
520
27,160
3,780
840
230
840
100
880
340
360
280
12,000
240
1,830
210
10,290
6,200
790
3,670
110
660
2,640
400
1,790
93,730
-30.8%
15.8%
13.4%
11.0%
33.3%
20.6%
37.5%
33.7%
39.4%
28.6%
13.3%
0.0%
23.8%
15.0%
27.0%
20.9%
14.7%
24.3%
21.7%
21.1%
25.4%
25.0%
22.2%
17.2%
28.6%
40.0%
22.6%
4.3%
28.0%
23.5%
9.4%
21.8%
38.6%
17.6%
37.5%
15.8%
15.8%
33.3%
11.2%
16.1%
Number of single-family units sold, excluding new construction
NOTES:
• Number of single-family units sold, excluding new construction.
16
MEDIAN HOME PRICES
MEDIAN
HOME PRICES
State
of Washington
and Counties
Time
Trend
State of
Washington and Counties
Time Trend
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
12 Annual
$128,900
$150,800
$183,400
$221,100
$191,700
$196,500
$146,200
$137,000
$202,400
$136,700
$183,400
$150,800
$155,000
$115,000
$250,000
$240,000
$365,000
$233,000
$195,100
$185,600
$145,000
$83,000
$154,900
$155,000
$105,000
$136,700
$195,000
$362,500
$207,400
$175,700
$260,000
$169,600
$136,700
$218,000
$143,300
$166,800
$250,000
$197,000
$154,500
$234,200
13:Q1
$103,300
$156,000
$181,800
$195,600
$184,000
$219,200
$143,300
$140,000
$199,100
$113,000
$181,800
$156,000
$151,200
$102,700
$249,200
$253,300
$384,300
$233,300
$213,600
$156,700
$154,500
$65,000
$123,600
$137,100
$113,300
$113,000
$199,400
$412,500
$207,200
$170,000
$280,800
$166,300
$113,000
$218,500
$75,000
$174,200
$245,600
$202,100
$146,800
$237,600
13:Q2
$140,000
$165,800
$186,500
$231,500
$189,000
$228,000
$130,000
$149,200
$199,600
$125,600
$186,500
$165,800
$159,300
$115,300
$253,100
$267,300
$421,900
$245,400
$206,200
$209,100
$139,800
$67,500
$146,700
$158,300
$108,000
$125,600
$219,600
$375,000
$230,500
$156,700
$299,700
$174,800
$125,600
$221,800
$140,000
$174,700
$257,900
$212,900
$157,600
$251,100
13:Q3
$140,000
$173,300
$189,600
$225,800
$196,000
$238,600
$200,000
$161,400
$215,000
$136,700
$189,600
$173,300
$153,000
$126,900
$258,500
$254,800
$438,000
$248,200
$202,100
$197,500
$146,800
$70,000
$168,100
$172,700
$134,000
$136,700
$228,300
$385,400
$230,800
$250,000
$309,200
$181,700
$136,700
$228,300
$155,000
$194,000
$272,400
$219,400
$161,400
$263,400
13:Q4
$143,300
$154,100
$186,900
$231,400
$201,000
$227,700
$173,300
$147,000
$211,200
$101,000
$186,900
$154,100
$161,600
$121,000
$258,100
$269,400
$421,700
$239,000
$222,000
$184,000
$128,500
$70,000
$153,600
$155,000
$88,700
$101,000
$216,900
$416,700
$234,800
$180,000
$304,600
$171,900
$101,000
$220,300
$155,000
$180,000
$270,500
$208,300
$154,000
$256,300
13 Annual
$132,700
$161,800
$186,600
$223,900
$193,400
$224,900
$153,800
$150,000
$207,000
$133,500
$186,600
$161,800
$156,000
$119,800
$255,000
$260,000
$415,000
$240,700
$206,800
$189,400
$139,000
$67,500
$150,000
$157,500
$117,000
$120,800
$217,000
$394,000
$230,000
$188,600
$299,700
$174,500
$120,800
$225,000
$120,000
$180,700
$259,900
$212,900
$155,100
$253,300
% Ch Q4
% Ch Yr
5.6%
-1.5%
-1.3%
2.2%
2.8%
8.0%
38.6%
3.4%
3.7%
-36.4%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.2%
7.7%
-4.3%
3.6%
10.7%
0.2%
3.9%
-12.1%
-16.6%
-54.8%
-2.7%
2.2%
-17.1%
-36.4%
7.6%
24.1%
7.4%
-10.0%
12.6%
0.4%
-36.4%
1.5%
19.2%
0.6%
3.5%
4.2%
-4.5%
6.0%
2.9%
7.3%
1.7%
1.3%
0.9%
14.5%
5.2%
9.5%
2.3%
-2.3%
1.7%
7.3%
0.6%
4.2%
2.0%
8.3%
13.7%
3.3%
6.0%
2.0%
-4.1%
-18.7%
-3.2%
1.6%
11.4%
-11.6%
11.3%
8.7%
10.9%
7.3%
15.3%
2.9%
-11.6%
3.2%
-16.3%
8.3%
4.0%
8.1%
0.4%
8.2%
Source: WCRER
Estimates
Source: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies/University of Washington
17
MEDIAN HOME PRICES
State of Washington and Counties
Annual,
2000-2013
Median
Home Prices
Annual, 2000-2013
Counties
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
2000
$83,700
$92,400
$119,400
$129,000
$117,800
$147,000
N/A
$110,100
$129,000
$88,700
$119,400
$92,400
$90,000
$81,400
$155,100
$176,400
$249,900
$149,400
$128,900
N/A
$89,000
N/A
$104,800
N/A
$69,500
$88,700
$151,800
$250,000
$151,200
N/A
$196,400
$103,500
$88,700
$137,900
$98,200
$96,600
$146,500
$117,000
$108,000
$176,300
2002
$74,200
$95,300
$140,300
$131,400
$131,400
$156,500
N/A
$110,700
$131,400
$90,900
$140,300
$95,300
$92,800
$87,000
$177,000
$184,900
$278,500
$165,900
$150,300
N/A
$106,000
N/A
$115,000
$80,300
$78,200
$90,900
$170,000
$272,200
$165,500
N/A
$220,000
$109,700
$90,900
$154,900
$128,000
$119,900
$159,100
$128,100
$110,700
$188,500
2004
$93,600
$111,200
$147,900
$147,300
$164,300
$195,000
$81,400
$125,000
$147,300
$114,000
$147,900
$111,200
$105,000
$104,000
$215,900
$245,000
$324,000
$206,900
$174,000
N/A
$124,500
N/A
$138,100
$86,500
$100,000
$114,000
$199,900
$337,000
$191,200
N/A
$250,000
$131,100
$114,000
$184,900
$167,000
$139,500
$216,800
$147,700
$125,700
$225,000
2006
$89,800
$142,900
$157,200
$202,000
$231,500
$269,400
$100,000
$174,500
$202,000
$143,700
$157,200
$142,900
$133,500
$148,000
$300,000
$326,300
$425,000
$275,000
$248,000
N/A
$170,000
N/A
$191,700
$145,600
$135,000
$143,700
$270,000
$539,500
$260,000
N/A
$345,400
$181,600
$143,700
$252,200
$205,000
$175,800
$282,300
$188,200
$134,900
$293,800
2008
$113,600
$154,900
$165,800
$247,000
$236,500
$246,900
$130,000
$181,500
$234,900
$156,600
$165,800
$154,900
$159,000
$151,000
$285,000
$299,000
$430,000
$265,000
$235,000
$213,900
$186,500
N/A
$192,000
$170,000
$165,000
$156,600
$258,000
$510,000
$263,000
$236,400
$345,000
$191,600
$156,600
$255,000
$182,500
$190,500
$278,000
$219,300
$148,900
$284,400
2010
$123,900
$147,800
$177,500
$224,900
$206,400
$212,500
$125,000
$155,000
$210,500
$144,300
$177,500
$147,800
$160,000
$135,000
$260,000
$265,000
$375,000
$240,000
$214,000
$198,800
$154,300
$73,600
$165,000
$169,000
$128,000
$144,300
$220,000
$422,500
$223,000
$160,000
$275,000
$172,700
$144,300
$230,000
$148,000
$180,000
$250,000
$201,700
$151,500
$246,300
2011
$121,500
$155,200
$176,700
$218,400
$180,000
$189,800
$130,000
$139,500
$203,700
$146,900
$176,700
$155,200
$154,100
$120,000
$249,900
$238,000
$340,000
$235,000
$188,500
$180,000
$139,900
$71,700
$145,000
$160,000
$120,000
$146,200
$194,000
$405,000
$202,800
$166,000
$243,000
$164,600
$146,900
$219,500
$95,000
$170,900
$241,500
$186,600
$145,300
$224,180
2012
2013
$128,900
$150,800
$183,400
$221,100
$191,700
$196,500
$146,200
$137,000
$202,400
$136,700
$183,400
$150,800
$155,000
$115,000
$250,000
$240,000
$365,000
$233,000
$195,100
$185,600
$145,000
$83,000
$154,900
$155,000
$105,000
$136,700
$195,000
$362,500
$207,400
$175,700
$260,000
$169,600
$136,700
$218,000
$143,300
$166,800
$250,000
$197,000
$154,500
$234,200
$132,700
$161,800
$186,600
$223,900
$193,400
$224,900
$153,800
$150,000
$207,000
$133,500
$186,600
$161,800
$156,000
$119,800
$255,000
$260,000
$415,000
$240,700
$206,800
$189,400
$139,000
$67,500
$150,000
$157,500
$117,000
$120,800
$217,000
$394,000
$230,000
$188,600
$299,700
$174,500
$120,800
$225,000
$120,000
$180,700
$259,900
$212,900
$155,100
$253,300
Source: WCRER Estimates
18
Source: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies/University ofWashington
HOME
BYby
NUMBER
OF BEDROOMS
HomePRICES
Prices
Number
of Bedrooms
State
of Washington
and Counties
State
of Washington
and Counties
Fourth Quarters
Fourth Quarters
2 Bedroom
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
2012
$130,000
$123,700
$106,200
$160,000
$167,500
$128,600
$82,500
$65,000
$65,000
$63,700
$106,200
$123,700
$90,000
$83,000
$261,500
$210,700
$272,400
$172,500
$185,000
$190,000
$112,500
N/A
$153,300
$160,000
$78,300
$63,700
$112,400
$337,500
$128,900
$150,000
$160,600
$97,500
$63,700
$163,600
N/A
$78,300
$199,200
$130,000
$88,300
$158,000
2013
$65,000
$118,000
$103,600
$180,000
$141,800
$135,900
$130,000
$81,200
$145,000
$63,000
$103,600
$118,000
$80,000
$68,300
$245,800
$253,100
$318,600
$170,900
$167,100
$57,500
$68,700
N/A
$147,100
$112,500
$78,300
$63,000
$121,300
$356,200
$167,500
$75,000
$187,500
$98,000
$63,000
$173,700
N/A
$135,000
$185,000
$136,700
$101,000
$163,400
% ch
-50.0%
-4.6%
-2.4%
12.5%
-15.3%
5.7%
57.6%
24.9%
123.1%
-1.1%
-2.4%
-4.6%
-11.1%
-17.7%
-6.0%
20.1%
17.0%
-0.9%
-9.7%
-69.7%
-38.9%
N/A
-4.0%
-29.7%
0.0%
-1.1%
7.9%
5.5%
29.9%
-50.0%
16.7%
0.5%
-1.1%
6.2%
N/A
72.4%
-7.1%
5.2%
14.4%
3.4%
2012
$135,000
$148,700
$168,300
$216,200
$206,700
$183,900
$212,500
$157,000
$198,000
$176,700
$168,300
$148,700
$156,700
$126,900
$260,900
$284,400
$341,700
$238,300
$216,200
$210,000
$156,200
N/A
$154,000
$140,000
$116,700
$176,700
$182,000
$292,900
$221,200
$190,000
$238,200
$158,900
$176,700
$204,800
N/A
$175,000
$258,300
$183,300
$166,000
$218,400
3 Bedroom
2013
$146,700
$152,000
$170,000
$226,000
$222,900
$200,900
$200,000
$148,700
$193,300
$110,000
$170,000
$152,000
$154,200
$136,200
$252,300
$270,600
$372,400
$237,500
$228,000
$183,300
$139,300
N/A
$162,900
$170,000
$123,300
$110,000
$197,600
$450,000
$235,700
$170,000
$276,900
$159,400
$110,000
$205,200
N/A
$181,400
$262,000
$182,500
$163,100
$232,600
4 or More Bedrooms
% ch
8.7%
2.2%
1.0%
4.5%
7.8%
9.2%
-5.9%
-5.3%
-2.4%
-37.7%
1.0%
2.2%
-1.6%
7.3%
-3.3%
-4.9%
9.0%
-0.3%
5.5%
-12.7%
-10.8%
N/A
5.8%
21.4%
5.7%
-37.7%
8.6%
53.6%
6.6%
-10.5%
16.2%
0.3%
-37.7%
0.2%
N/A
3.7%
1.4%
-0.4%
-1.7%
6.5%
2012
$160,000
$181,200
$237,700
$297,200
$225,000
$273,400
$125,000
$168,600
$250,000
$175,000
$237,700
$181,200
$200,000
$160,000
$300,000
$500,000
$469,700
$281,000
$275,000
$250,000
$192,500
N/A
$233,300
$225,000
$185,000
$175,000
$245,600
$400,000
$271,900
$225,000
$335,900
$209,900
$175,000
$266,900
N/A
$218,700
$323,000
$225,000
$203,600
$306,700
2013
$173,300
$215,600
$249,200
$275,000
$250,000
$291,200
$170,000
$195,000
$281,200
$164,000
$249,200
$215,600
$191,200
$140,000
$318,700
$325,000
$522,000
$281,800
$287,500
$250,000
$213,600
N/A
$140,000
$258,300
$170,000
$164,000
$270,000
$687,500
$264,800
$250,000
$378,400
$215,700
$164,000
$269,900
N/A
$227,500
$345,100
$247,500
$193,300
$337,200
% ch
8.3%
19.0%
4.8%
-7.5%
11.1%
6.5%
36.0%
15.7%
12.5%
-6.3%
4.8%
19.0%
-4.4%
-12.5%
6.2%
-35.0%
11.1%
0.3%
4.5%
0.0%
11.0%
N/A
-40.0%
14.8%
-8.1%
-6.3%
9.9%
71.9%
-2.6%
11.1%
12.7%
2.8%
-6.3%
1.1%
N/A
4.0%
6.8%
10.0%
-5.1%
9.9%
Source:
WCRER
Source:
Runstad
CenterEstimates
for Real Estate Studies, University of Washington
19
HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
INDEXINDEX
State of
andand
Counties
State
ofWashington
Washington
Counties
Third
Quarter
2013
Fourth Quarter 2013
County
Median
Price
Mortgage
Rate
Monthly
Payment
Median
Family
Income
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
$143,300
$154,100
$186,900
$231,400
$201,000
$227,700
$173,300
$147,000
$211,200
$101,000
$186,900
$154,100
$161,600
$121,000
$258,100
$269,400
$421,700
$239,000
$222,000
$184,000
$128,500
$70,000
$153,600
$155,000
$88,700
$101,000
$216,900
$416,700
$234,800
$180,000
$304,600
$171,900
$101,000
$220,300
$155,000
$180,000
$270,500
$208,300
$154,000
$256,300
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
4.43%
$576
$620
$751
$930
$808
$915
$697
$591
$849
$406
$751
$620
$650
$486
$1,038
$1,083
$1,695
$961
$893
$740
$517
$281
$618
$623
$357
$406
$872
$1,675
$944
$724
$1,225
$691
$406
$886
$623
$724
$1,087
$837
$619
$1,030
$46,700
$56,600
$67,700
$63,800
$58,900
$74,000
$59,600
$59,900
$62,100
$47,100
$67,700
$50,900
$52,800
$52,800
$73,500
$64,200
$90,900
$76,700
$63,800
$50,100
$57,200
$54,900
$61,000
$52,000
$53,400
$48,700
$72,600
$66,600
$66,800
$74,000
$84,200
$63,700
$54,700
$76,000
$56,400
$58,900
$68,800
$62,500
$51,900
$73,900
HAI
Starter
Monthly
Payment
Median
Household
Income
First
Time
HAI
168.9
190.3
187.7
142.9
151.9
168.4
178.2
211.2
152.4
241.7
187.7
171.2
169.3
226.1
147.6
123.5
111.7
166.3
148.9
141.1
230.7
406.4
205.8
173.8
312.0
249.9
173.5
82.8
147.4
213.0
143.2
192.0
280.7
178.8
188.6
169.6
131.8
155.5
174.6
149.4
$567
$610
$740
$916
$796
$901
$686
$582
$836
$400
$740
$610
$640
$479
$1,022
$1,066
$1,669
$946
$879
$728
$509
$277
$608
$614
$351
$400
$859
$1,649
$929
$713
$1,206
$680
$400
$872
$614
$713
$1,071
$825
$610
$1,015
$40,282
$43,557
$62,470
$50,641
$56,920
$58,539
$46,010
$45,816
$49,193
$32,165
$44,164
$47,996
$43,304
$41,936
$62,152
$49,742
$70,898
$65,188
$42,045
$43,576
$45,819
$51,241
$40,938
$42,199
$37,844
$37,680
$54,316
$50,826
$48,941
$51,873
$64,845
$50,540
$42,050
$58,767
$37,489
$50,534
$52,855
$40,324
$42,168
$58,122
103.6
104.1
123.1
80.6
104.3
94.7
97.8
114.8
85.8
117.3
87.1
114.7
98.7
127.7
88.7
68.0
61.9
100.5
69.8
87.3
131.4
269.7
98.2
100.3
157.2
137.4
92.3
44.9
76.8
106.2
78.4
108.3
153.4
98.3
89.1
103.4
72.0
71.3
100.9
83.5
Source:
Runstad
Center
Estimates
Source:
Runstad
Center
Estimates
Notes:
Housing Affordability Index measures the ability of a middle income family to carry the mortgage p
NOTES:
First-time
buyer the
index
assumes
theincome
purchaser's
70% of payments
the median
• Housing Affordability
Index measures
ability
of a middle
family toincome
carry theismortgage
on a household
median priceincome.
home. When
Home
purchased
by
first-time
buyers
is
85%
of
area's
median
price.
the index is 100 there is a balance between the family’s ability to pay and the cost. Higher indexes indicate housing is more affordable.
• First-time buyer index
assumes
theassumed
purchaser’stoincome
70% of
the median household income.
All loans
are
be 30isyear
loans.
• Home purchased by
buyersassumes
is 85% of area’s
price.
Allfirst-time
buyer index
20%median
downpayment.
First-time buyer index assumes 10% down.
• All loans are assumed to be 30 year loans.
• All buyer index assumes 20% downpayment. First-time buyer index assumes 10% down.
•
It is assumed
25% of for
income
be used
for principal and
payments.
Source:
Runstad Center
Realcan
Estate
Studies/University
of interest
Washington
20
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
HOUSING
Time
Trend AFFORDABILITY INDEX
Time Trend
County
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
189.4
177.9
198.9
139.5
168.9
206.0
157.7
225.6
153.4
160.7
198.9
160.1
188.3
235.8
155.2
167.9
145.2
170.9
170.3
197.6
219.7
564.4
217.6
177.9
208.0
166.3
201.9
80.7
171.4
223.4
179.3
207.2
187.4
181.6
128.5
185.0
153.2
185.4
180.7
174.8
207.9
230.8
199.0
146.0
181.7
221.2
211.1
238.4
158.5
242.1
199.0
207.7
171.7
315.4
180.7
147.0
146.8
188.3
185.0
148.0
231.8
459.5
226.2
194.1
275.3
250.5
216.1
109.0
189.6
203.5
186.8
210.9
282.2
186.4
327.0
205.1
154.1
185.0
197.6
185.3
204.6
195.3
201.5
160.1
167.3
201.2
221.8
250.8
164.0
199.6
201.5
175.8
182.7
246.6
163.5
141.1
131.9
170.7
181.0
161.3
195.7
409.1
210.9
173.5
266.2
206.5
201.0
107.1
174.7
249.6
173.3
204.8
232.5
181.9
264.4
198.6
142.7
174.7
173.0
169.0
194.6
199.9
203.3
146.4
156.9
202.3
220.5
236.1
155.7
193.3
203.3
179.8
199.0
233.9
157.7
154.0
132.4
170.2
178.5
127.0
222.5
353.7
201.9
182.6
320.5
199.9
197.2
96.9
169.7
234.6
170.2
201.9
225.0
193.7
183.9
191.1
149.8
166.3
190.2
168.8
195.1
204.7
202.6
154.7
170.6
198.8
270.1
238.6
167.4
167.9
202.6
184.2
182.9
266.4
154.4
139.8
134.9
181.9
169.0
135.5
210.7
200.8
219.1
194.2
282.8
173.7
204.2
112.5
173.0
209.6
176.0
210.8
195.4
198.4
245.6
186.4
149.0
177.1
182.3
173.1
257.7
206.6
212.2
181.6
182.4
192.4
237.0
243.8
173.7
237.3
212.2
185.9
199.0
293.0
168.0
144.4
134.6
187.2
170.1
182.1
211.2
481.5
281.3
216.1
268.6
245.4
207.6
92.1
183.7
248.0
170.6
218.4
276.0
198.2
428.3
192.6
159.5
176.3
201.5
177.2
188.9
193.2
205.5
153.6
176.4
183.7
259.6
227.3
173.5
212.2
205.5
173.8
187.7
259.3
164.4
135.9
121.9
176.9
175.1
135.6
231.8
460.6
235.4
186.0
280.0
219.4
187.3
100.6
164.1
267.3
158.9
206.4
246.6
194.0
228.0
190.9
150.9
166.3
186.4
166.6
171.7
168.1
183.8
144.3
154.7
159.6
153.4
191.0
147.5
177.3
183.8
151.1
177.6
214.1
146.3
129.7
106.8
159.0
162.4
130.5
200.6
403.7
186.8
155.0
205.1
183.3
163.7
89.0
149.0
152.3
140.1
180.5
206.0
171.3
187.2
156.2
129.9
146.6
165.5
144.4
168.9
190.3
187.7
142.9
151.9
168.4
178.2
211.2
152.4
241.7
187.7
171.2
169.3
226.1
147.6
123.5
111.7
166.3
148.9
141.1
230.7
406.4
205.8
173.8
312.0
249.9
173.5
82.8
147.4
213.0
143.2
192.0
280.7
178.8
188.6
169.6
131.8
155.5
174.6
149.4
NOTES:
Source: Runstad Center Estimates
• Housing Affordability Index measures the ability of a middle income family to carry the mortgage payments on a median price home.
When the index is 100 there is a balance between the family’s ability to pay and the cost. Higher indexes indicate housing is more
Notes: Housing Affordability Index measures the ability of a middle income family to carry the mortgage payments
affordable.
are
loans.
•All loans
All loans
areassumed
assumed totobebe
3030
yearyear
loans.
index
20%
downpayment.
•All buyer
All buyer
indexassumes
assumes 20%
downpayment.
ofincome
income
be used
for principal
andpayments.
interest payments.
•It isItassumed
is assumed25%
25% of
cancan
be used
for principal
and interest
Washington
State’s
Housing
Market
- Fourth
Quarter 2013
Source: Runstad
Center
for Real
Estate
Studies/University
of Washington
21
HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
INDEX
First-Time
First
TimeBuyers
Buyers, Time Trend
Time Trend
County
11:Q4
12:Q1
12:Q2
12:Q3
12:Q4
13:Q1
13:Q2
13:Q3
13:Q4
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
121.5
92.3
130.0
78.9
81.4
111.7
75.2
113.9
89.8
92.3
115.1
102.5
111.9
129.9
83.6
84.8
77.7
90.3
81.2
124.3
107.2
329.6
124.3
87.9
106.4
93.1
113.7
47.6
103.3
113.0
97.9
111.1
100.7
105.7
75.1
102.3
81.1
67.9
104.7
95.9
132.6
120.6
130.1
82.5
92.4
120.5
102.6
121.5
92.3
136.2
112.2
133.8
101.8
174.3
98.8
75.1
78.9
101.3
88.0
92.9
115.5
273.0
126.4
97.9
140.5
139.8
120.8
63.6
112.2
102.7
102.0
113.8
151.9
107.7
186.5
115.0
81.9
70.0
114.4
101.9
129.7
102.7
131.7
90.4
89.4
110.1
109.8
129.0
95.0
110.0
110.6
113.8
108.0
136.6
90.6
72.9
71.2
93.4
85.9
101.0
99.5
247.1
115.3
89.3
135.6
115.0
111.6
61.8
101.5
125.6
94.6
111.2
125.4
104.3
146.9
112.7
76.1
68.1
100.1
93.1
122.6
105.8
132.9
82.6
87.8
111.1
111.1
122.6
89.7
104.3
108.6
117.1
117.3
129.9
88.7
80.4
71.8
94.8
84.5
79.3
115.4
217.1
108.0
95.9
162.8
111.0
108.6
55.3
96.8
117.9
92.9
110.3
121.5
110.3
99.6
109.7
80.2
66.7
110.0
93.2
122.2
109.0
132.5
87.2
99.8
109.7
138.5
125.0
96.0
88.7
105.3
120.6
107.5
148.4
88.0
73.8
73.4
103.0
79.8
84.4
111.4
125.2
114.5
103.9
143.4
96.2
111.6
63.6
96.9
105.1
96.1
115.9
105.7
112.1
129.5
108.3
80.1
73.1
105.3
95.8
160.5
110.8
138.8
102.4
111.4
106.6
123.6
128.9
99.1
122.8
107.3
122.4
116.7
163.7
97.0
77.0
73.5
107.7
80.1
113.2
113.7
305.0
143.8
117.9
135.9
135.6
112.7
51.5
101.1
124.1
93.2
120.8
149.7
111.2
219.8
113.3
86.0
74.8
116.3
98.3
117.0
104.2
134.5
86.6
112.2
102.3
137.7
121.3
98.5
107.5
101.0
115.1
109.8
145.3
96.2
73.3
66.9
103.5
82.3
84.1
127.2
296.3
117.6
103.4
141.4
121.0
100.9
55.7
88.6
133.5
86.8
114.9
134.1
108.1
113.8
113.6
81.7
72.4
107.6
92.6
105.9
91.4
120.5
81.5
102.4
89.4
82.8
103.0
83.5
88.0
87.8
100.8
103.8
120.6
86.9
70.7
58.9
94.6
76.3
80.9
112.2
264.0
91.3
87.8
103.5
101.0
87.7
48.8
79.1
76.1
76.7
101.2
112.3
94.9
91.0
94.2
70.7
65.6
95.6
80.6
103.6
104.1
123.1
80.6
104.3
94.7
97.8
114.8
85.8
117.3
87.1
114.7
98.7
127.7
88.7
68.0
61.9
100.5
69.8
87.3
131.4
269.7
98.2
100.3
157.2
137.4
92.3
44.9
76.8
106.2
78.4
108.3
153.4
98.3
89.1
103.4
72.0
71.3
100.9
83.5
Source: Runstad Center Estimates
NOTES:
• Housing Affordability Index measures the ability of a middle income family to carry the mortgage payments on a median price home.
When the index is 100 there is a balance between the family’s ability to pay and the cost. Higher indexes indicate housing is more
affordable.
• All loans are assumed to be 30 year loans.
Source:
Runstad
Center
for 20%
Real downpayment.
Estate Studies/University of Washington
•
All buyer
index
assumes
• It is assumed 25% of income can be used for principal and interest payments.
22
PERCENTAGE OF HOMES ON MARKET BELOW SPECIFIED PRICE
Percentage
ofand
Homes
State
of Washington
Countieson Market
End
of Fourth
Quarter 2013 and Counties
State
of Washington
End of Fourth Quarter 2013
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
$80,000
N/A
5.8%
5.5%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
N/A
12.2%
6.1%
9.7%
5.5%
5.8%
7.5%
16.4%
0.9%
4.7%
0.2%
2.6%
2.3%
5.2%
10.0%
N/A
9.6%
7.8%
18.2%
9.7%
2.0%
0.6%
2.7%
10.9%
0.9%
6.9%
9.7%
2.1%
N/A
7.3%
4.2%
11.0%
8.9%
4.2%
$160,000
N/A
38.5%
32.4%
20.0%
20.2%
10.3%
N/A
39.8%
23.7%
41.7%
32.4%
38.5%
39.6%
51.8%
10.3%
15.8%
3.6%
20.3%
16.5%
26.7%
43.6%
N/A
41.7%
35.5%
55.7%
41.7%
17.6%
5.0%
18.6%
47.3%
7.4%
39.6%
41.7%
15.6%
N/A
40.9%
10.9%
33.9%
42.8%
22.2%
Below Specified Price
$250,000
N/A
70.9%
64.7%
50.8%
46.6%
41.9%
N/A
69.4%
55.0%
70.6%
64.7%
70.9%
72.9%
78.4%
35.1%
36.9%
17.5%
51.0%
44.7%
51.2%
74.5%
N/A
73.7%
59.0%
78.0%
70.6%
46.4%
11.0%
44.9%
80.0%
25.0%
67.7%
70.6%
48.5%
N/A
69.9%
35.8%
70.6%
69.3%
48.2%
$500,000
N/A
96.4%
95.8%
85.4%
84.0%
85.9%
N/A
95.7%
94.7%
94.4%
95.8%
96.4%
94.4%
95.9%
75.5%
82.0%
60.5%
87.6%
77.3%
83.7%
96.1%
N/A
96.0%
91.4%
94.6%
94.4%
87.6%
39.2%
82.3%
89.1%
79.2%
94.2%
94.4%
93.0%
N/A
94.7%
83.9%
92.7%
94.2%
84.7%
Source: Runstad
WCRER Estimates
Source:
Center for Real Estate Studies, University of Washington
23
LISTINGS
ListingsAVAILABLE
AvailableFOR
forSALE
Sale
End of Fourth Quarters
End of Fourth Quarters
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
2006
N/A
350
1,473
336
N/A
3,064
N/A
505
N/A
223
1,473
350
331
541
699
297
5,423
1,435
289
N/A
576
N/A
554
N/A
N/A
223
4,806
170
741
N/A
3,128
2,350
223
1,494
N/A
333
N/A
124
1,119
32,630
2007
N/A
416
1,365
590
N/A
3,917
N/A
673
N/A
258
1,365
416
540
702
881
390
8,187
1,920
498
222
605
N/A
677
253
N/A
258
6,203
276
954
108
4,617
2,652
258
1,665
N/A
838
1,308
108
1,255
44,375
2008
N/A
430
1,421
494
636
4,020
N/A
635
N/A
325
1,421
430
569
714
861
411
8,707
1,820
507
162
725
N/A
684
316
299
325
5,601
345
952
102
4,362
2,849
325
1,591
N/A
693
1,280
127
1,254
45,393
2009
N/A
494
1,286
482
654
3,114
60
575
190
385
1,286
494
529
634
848
419
6,918
1,370
410
185
681
N/A
591
317
291
385
4,611
374
986
91
3,533
2,972
385
1,447
N/A
599
1,174
120
1,159
40,049
2010
N/A
796
1,263
471
555
3,143
68
570
212
427
1,263
796
448
720
789
409
7,364
1,390
344
197
677
N/A
594
320
318
427
4,717
304
929
82
3,640
2,963
427
1,384
N/A
611
1,209
133
1,189
41,149
2011
N/A
378
1,500
462
574
2,557
87
458
179
401
1,500
378
459
688
705
402
5,491
1,304
366
177
609
N/A
583
345
326
401
3,902
317
805
81
2,676
2,722
401
1,269
N/A
597
1,042
152
1,036
35,330
2012
52
299
1,564
348
472
1,984
N/A
390
141
422
1,564
299
426
600
551
307
2,945
1,122
330
172
549
46
581
333
283
422
2,512
254
567
76
1,341
2,294
422
946
N/A
411
903
107
771
26,806
2013
71
278
1,403
315
455
2,155
N/A
363
131
391
1,403
278
412
621
551
299
3,127
1,120
306
172
603
33
565
366
284
391
2,860
282
604
55
1,830
2,210
391
1,004
N/A
399
903
109
817
27,557
% Ch 12-13
36.5%
-7.0%
-10.3%
-9.5%
-3.6%
8.6%
N/A
-6.9%
-7.1%
-7.3%
-10.3%
-7.0%
-3.3%
3.5%
0.0%
-2.6%
6.2%
-0.2%
-7.3%
0.0%
9.8%
-28.3%
-2.8%
9.9%
0.4%
-7.3%
13.9%
11.0%
6.5%
-27.6%
36.5%
-3.7%
-7.3%
6.1%
N/A
-2.9%
0.0%
1.9%
6.0%
2.8%
24
MONTH’S
BYby
PRICE
RANGE
Month's SUPPLY
SupplyOFofHOUSING
Housing
Price
Range
State
of of
Washington
and Counties
State
Washington
and Counties
December 2013
December 2013
County
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
Under
$80,000
N/A
5.9
4.5
6.3
2.3
1.7
N/A
3.9
9.6
9.2
4.5
5.9
5.7
4.1
3.5
6.1
1.2
3.0
2.4
3.5
3.9
N/A
5.6
8.7
5.4
9.2
1.4
N/A
3.7
3.8
2.6
3.4
9.2
3.0
N/A
14.4
5.4
8.2
4.3
3.6
$80,000159,999
N/A
5.1
5.1
6.8
3.6
3.3
N/A
3.1
5.9
45.2
5.1
5.1
7.7
10.3
4.9
8.8
1.9
4.7
5.3
8.6
10.6
N/A
8.9
13.1
13.1
45.2
2.9
N/A
4.6
7.0
2.6
5.0
45.2
3.5
N/A
9.0
3.6
8.5
6.0
4.8
$160,000
$249,999
N/A
8.1
4.9
4.8
5.7
3.8
N/A
5.0
3.3
58.4
4.9
8.1
8.5
8.9
4.8
7.6
2.2
4.9
4.9
9.2
13.1
N/A
13.2
24.6
21.2
58.4
2.9
9.5
3.9
8.1
2.0
4.9
58.4
3.4
N/A
7.3
5.1
5.2
5.4
4.2
$250,000$499,999
N/A
11.8
6.5
6.3
9.9
6.5
N/A
10.6
6.7
N/A
6.5
11.8
11.8
30.5
5.7
7.1
1.8
5.0
7.5
15.1
28.0
N/A
2.2
27.9
24.8
N/A
4.8
11.7
5.3
0.5
2.6
6.3
N/A
6.1
N/A
9.6
5.3
5.5
9.8
4.2
$500,000
and above
N/A
35.5
16.1
9.8
19.6
16.4
N/A
56.8
N/A
N/A
16.1
35.5
N/A
N/A
25.4
37.3
2.2
6.1
15.9
98.0
88.7
N/A
11.4
15.5
N/A
N/A
11.3
25.2
12.6
N/A
5.4
9.7
N/A
13.0
N/A
18.3
13.1
28.4
66.3
4.7
Total
Market
N/A
7.4
5.5
6.1
6.6
5.2
N/A
4.9
5.2
44.2
5.5
7.4
8.9
9.1
6.5
8.6
2.0
4.9
6.6
11.1
11.2
N/A
9.8
17.8
12.5
44.2
3.8
17.5
5.2
5.8
2.8
5.2
44.2
4.5
N/A
9.0
5.6
6.5
6.5
4.3
Market
2012
N/A
7.7
6.9
6.5
8.7
5.2
N/A
6.7
5.3
64.3
6.9
7.7
12.7
12.8
6.7
9.6
2.1
5.6
8.0
12.7
12.4
N/A
12.7
19.6
12.8
64.3
4.0
15.9
6.3
N/A
2.4
6.2
64.3
5.1
N/A
9.3
5.8
10.1
7.1
4.8
Market
2011
N/A
8.5
5.8
10.2
9.8
6.5
N/A
8.4
7.4
13.9
5.8
8.5
12.0
6.8
10.3
16.2
3.6
6.9
10.1
13.8
13.6
N/A
13.5
22.4
16.8
13.9
5.6
29.9
9.0
N/A
3.9
8.5
13.9
6.0
N/A
16.4
3.5
7.2
8.3
5.8
25
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
RESIDENTIAL
BUILDING PERMITS
Units Authorized
State
of Washington
and
Units
Authorized,
Monthly
OCT 12
COUNTY
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
NOV 12
Counties, Monthly
DEC 12
OCT 13
NOV 13
DEC 13
% Change
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
TOT
ONE
113
27
9
138
0
8
11
0
65
0
78
27
9
117
0
8
11
0
65
0
102
8
7
137
0
10
16
0
60
0
64
8
7
72
0
10
16
0
60
0
125
4
4
160
0
2
5
0
57
0
67
4
4
68
0
2
5
0
57
0
74
13
16
190
0
12
10
0
49
0
55
13
16
125
0
12
10
0
35
0
74
10
3
121
0
3
11
0
43
0
54
10
3
104
0
3
11
0
28
0
71
6
11
117
0
10
9
0
50
0
31
6
11
112
0
10
9
0
29
0
-35.6%
-25.6%
50.0%
-1.6%
N/A
25.0%
-6.3%
N/A
-22.0%
N/A
-33.0%
-25.6%
50.0%
32.7%
N/A
25.0%
-6.3%
N/A
-49.5%
N/A
6
8
7
1137
34
15
6
8
7
387
34
15
2
11
3
762
45
9
2
11
3
293
35
9
1
5
1
698
28
7
1
5
1
350
28
7
7
15
7
820
43
25
7
15
7
387
43
25
5
14
1
1,282
33
11
5
14
1
370
15
11
0
7
3
1,084
28
11
0
7
3
319
28
11
33.3%
50.0%
0.0%
22.7%
-2.8%
51.6%
33.3%
50.0%
0.0%
4.5%
-11.3%
51.6%
11
11
26
2
4
4
8
8
5
5
4
4
-58.5%
0.0%
15
12
15
12
4
6
4
6
10
1
10
1
13
10
13
10
8
5
8
5
7
2
7
2
-3.4%
-10.5%
-3.4%
-10.5%
1
203
5
24
4
290
73
0
65
1
197
5
24
4
236
73
0
62
0
129
12
15
4
172
148
0
60
0
119
12
15
4
140
62
0
60
0
327
3
16
0
175
39
0
37
0
161
3
16
0
123
39
0
37
0
302
7
23
2
473
111
0
326
0
161
7
23
2
157
103
0
66
0
176
4
19
0
166
105
0
26
0
153
4
19
0
100
57
0
23
0
159
14
18
2
334
40
0
34
0
149
14
18
2
121
40
0
34
N/A
-3.3%
25.0%
9.1%
-50.0%
52.7%
-1.5%
N/A
138.3%
N/A
-2.9%
25.0%
9.1%
-50.0%
-24.2%
14.9%
N/A
-22.6%
2
40
21
13
2,357
2
22
9
13
1,458
4
16
13
16
1,797
4
16
1
16
1,051
56
20
2
13
1,800
8
20
2
13
1,036
4
110
55
10
2,735
4
29
7
10
1,350
4
26
1
9
2,165
4
26
1
9
1,043
1
19
4
11
2,056
1
19
4
11
1,002
-85.5%
103.9%
66.7%
-28.6%
16.8%
-35.7%
27.6%
0.0%
-28.6%
-4.2%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
NOTES:
• Percentage change is based on equivalent reports.
• TOT refers to total building permits, both single-family and multifamily.
• ONE refers to building permits for single-family homes only.
Provided by: Washington Center for Real Estate Research/Washington State University
26
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
RESIDENTIAL
BUILDING PERMITS
Value Authorized
State of Washington and
Value Authorized, Quarterly Totals
4th Qtr 2012
COUNTY
ADAMS
ASOTIN
BENTON
CHELAN
CLALLAM
CLARK
COLUMBIA
COWLITZ
DOUGLAS
FERRY
FRANKLIN
GARFIELD
GRANT
GRAYS HARBOR
ISLAND
JEFFERSON
KING
KITSAP
KITTITAS
KLICKITAT
LEWIS
LINCOLN
MASON
OKANOGAN
PACIFIC
PEND OREILLE
PIERCE
SAN JUAN
SKAGIT
SKAMANIA
SNOHOMISH
SPOKANE
STEVENS
THURSTON
WAHKIAKUM
WALLA WALLA
WHATCOM
WHITMAN
YAKIMA
Statewide
Counties, Quarterly Totals
3rd Qtr 2013
4th Qtr 2013
% change year ago
Total Value
SF Value
Total Value
SF Value
Total Value
SF Value
Total Value
SF Value
$64.9
$6.7
$4.3
$79.8
$0.0
$4.3
$6.3
$52.8
$6.7
$4.3
$65.9
$0.0
$4.3
$6.3
$63.1
$9.5
$9.2
$147.6
$0.0
$5.7
$7.9
$55.9
$9.5
$9.2
$119.2
$0.0
$5.7
$7.5
$46.4
$5.0
$6.0
$97.5
$0.0
$5.2
$6.0
$36.6
$5.0
$6.0
$90.0
$0.0
$5.2
$6.0
-28.4%
-25.3%
39.3%
22.3%
N/A
22.3%
-4.4%
-30.7%
-25.3%
39.3%
36.6%
N/A
22.3%
-4.4%
$41.4
$0.0
$41.4
$0.0
$32.9
$0.0
$27.5
$0.0
$28.2
$0.0
$22.1
$0.0
-31.8%
N/A
-46.5%
N/A
$3.0
$7.6
$2.9
$464.3
$22.7
$6.4
$3.0
$7.6
$2.9
$272.9
$21.9
$6.4
$3.6
$10.6
$6.8
$567.4
$30.9
$12.7
$3.6
$10.6
$6.8
$317.6
$30.3
$12.7
$2.9
$7.7
$2.7
$638.2
$26.4
$10.7
$2.9
$7.7
$2.7
$329.7
$24.3
$10.7
-5.1%
2.3%
-5.6%
37.5%
16.4%
65.6%
-5.1%
2.3%
-5.6%
20.8%
11.2%
65.6%
$3.9
$2.2
$2.6
$2.6
$2.3
$2.3
-39.4%
5.6%
$6.4
$2.3
$6.4
$2.3
$6.1
$4.1
$6.1
$4.1
$6.3
$2.5
$6.3
$2.5
-1.8%
6.8%
-1.8%
6.8%
$0.1
$142.7
$6.5
$10.3
$1.7
$137.4
$66.4
$0.0
$40.8
$0.1
$128.0
$6.5
$10.3
$1.7
$119.9
$56.2
$0.0
$40.4
$0.0
$140.5
$5.3
$13.8
$2.4
$232.8
$87.7
$0.3
$42.2
$0.0
$130.7
$5.3
$13.8
$2.4
$138.0
$85.7
$0.3
$42.2
$0.0
$139.1
$4.6
$13.6
$0.8
$172.0
$55.8
$0.0
$57.9
$0.0
$121.7
$4.6
$13.6
$0.8
$95.5
$52.6
$0.0
$30.6
N/A
-2.5%
-29.1%
31.1%
-53.0%
25.2%
-15.9%
N/A
42.0%
N/A
-4.9%
-29.1%
31.1%
-53.0%
-20.3%
-6.5%
N/A
-24.2%
$9.3
$16.1
$5.5
$9.5
$2.6
$12.8
$2.9
$9.5
$11.3
$35.6
$7.0
$9.2
$2.7
$29.5
$5.3
$9.2
$2.2
$25.0
$6.4
$8.7
$2.2
$17.4
$2.9
$8.7
-76.6%
55.3%
17.3%
-8.0%
-16.3%
35.8%
-2.2%
-8.0%
$1,173.4
$898.2
$1,508.7
$1,093.9
$1,380.2
$910.7
17.6%
1.4%
NOTES:
• $ Amounts in Millions.
• Total refers to all residential units, regardless of size of structure.
• SF refers to Single-Family homes, both detached and attached.
27
Washington Center for Real Estate Research
Runstad
Center
forfor
Real
Washington
Center
RealEstate
EstateStudies
Research
College of
ofBusiness
Built Environments
PO Box
644844
424
Gould
Hall, Box 355740
Pullman,WA
WA98195-5740
99164-4844
Seattle
All-BuyerHousing
Affordability 2013:Q4
All-Buyer
2013:Q4
131.8
Whatcom
82.8
San Juan
147.4
Skagit
147.6
Island
151.9
Clallam
143.2
Snohomish
123.5
Jefferson
173.8
Okanogan
241.7
Ferry
111.7
King
205.8
Mason
226.1
Grays Harbor
168.9
Adams
155.5
Whitman
230.7
Lewis
312.0
Pacific
192.0
Spokane
406.4
Lincoln
169.3
Grant
148.9
Kittitas
173.5
Pierce
178.8
Thurston
249.9
Pend Oreille
142.9
Chelan
152.4
Douglas
166.3
Kitsap
280.7
Stevens
187.7
Franklin
174.6
Yakima
188.6
Wahkiakum
211.2
Cowlitz
213.0
Skamania
168.4
Clark
187.7
Benton
169.6
Walla Walla
178.2
Columbia
171.2
Garfield
190.3
Asotin
Index
0.0 to 144.9
145.0 to 159.9
160.0 to 179.9
180.0 to 219.9
220.0 to 410.0
141.1
Klickitat
Median
Home
Median
HomePrice
PriceChange
Change 2013:Q4
2013:Q4
3.5%
Whatcom
24.1%
San Juan
7.4%
Skagit
-4.3%
Island
2.8%
Clallam
12.6%
Snohomish
3.6%
Jefferson
2.2%
Okanogan
-36.4%
Ferry
10.7%
King
-2.7%
Mason
7.7%
Grays Harbor
7.6%
Pierce
1.5%
Thurston
3.9%
Kittitas
0.4%
Spokane
-54.8%
Lincoln
-1.2%
Grant
5.6%
Adams
4.2%
Whitman
-16.6%
Lewis
-17.1%
Pacific
-36.4%
Pend Oreille
2.2%
Chelan
3.7%
Douglas
0.2%
Kitsap
-36.4%
Stevens
-4.5%
Yakima
19.2%
Wahkiakum
3.4%
Cowlitz
8.0%
Clark
-10.0%
Skamania
-12.1%
Klickitat
-1.3%
Franklin
-1.3%
Benton
0.6%
Walla Walla
38.6%
Columbia
Percent
-40.0% to -4.5%
-4.5% to 0.0%
0.1% to 3.5%
3.5% to 7.5%
7.5% to 40.0%
-1.5%
Garfield
-1.5%
Asotin

Washington State`s Housing Market

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