2_11101140_CMDR_2015_MKG_LP_et_al

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CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE
Sofia, 8-9 June 2015
INTERAGENCY INTERACTION
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR
EXPERT EARTHQUAKE RISK ESTIMATION FOR THE
BULGARIAN TERRITORY USING GIS ENVIRONMENT –
BUILDING RELEVANT DATA SETS
M. Kouteva*, 1, L.Pashova**, T. Bandrova*, S. Marinova*, St. Bonchev*, M. Markov***
* UACEG, Sofia, Bulgria, www.uacg.bg, 1- corresponding author: [email protected]
** NIGGG-BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria, www.bas.bg
***MGS, Sofia, Bulgaria
ЦНИП – УАСГ БН 164/14
UACEG, NIGGG-BAS, MGS
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Sofia, June 2015
EARTHQUAKE RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM DATA SETS
INFORM 2015
Risk Index
Seismic events in time period 1890 – 2014 with M≥ 4.0
Seismic Hazard Map – Summary of the Regulations for Design and
Construction in Seismic Regions, 1964 (1961), 1977
http://stroitelstvo.info/shimg/oo_1062284.jpg
M. Kouteva - Guentcheva, L.Pashova,
T. Bandorva, S. Marinova, St. Bonchev, M. Markov
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Seismic Zoning of Bulgarian Territory
Retrospective View
14%
1964
39%
BDS EN 1998-1:2005/NA:2012
95 years return period
1977
98
%
1987
BDS EN 1998-1:2005/NA:2012
475 years return period
Brief Retrospection of the Bulgarian Legislation for
Design and Construction in Seismic Regions
BDS EN 1998-1:2005/NA:2012
1000 years return period3
Sofia, June 2015
Data 2011,
Ministry of Environment
Mihalevski, National residential
forum, Sofia, 31.10. 2013.
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Bulgarian Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy (2014-2020)
http://www.preventionweb.net/files/38902_drrstrategybulgariaen.pdf
Priority I: Development of a sustainable national policy and ensuring a stable legal and institutional
framework for disaster risk reduction.
Priority II: Identification, analysis and disaster risk assessment at national, regional and local level.
Expanding and maintenance of effective national systems for forecast, monitoring early
warning and awareness in case of disasters.
Priority III: Building a culture of disaster protection at all management levels and among the society
using the knowledge, education, scientific researches and innovations.
Priority IV: Reducing the underlying risk factors and
strengthening the preparedness for effective
response in case of disasters at all management levels.
Information System (IS)
IS USER CLASSIFICATION
Computer systems
Interconnected components
Information acquiring, processing, storage and dissemination.
Executive Support
Systems
Management
Information Systems
Transaction
Processing Systems
Decision-Support
Systems
Knowledge
Management Systems
Office Automation
Systems
http://www.tutor2u.net/business/ict/intro_information_system_types.htm
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The Earthquake Risk Concept
Seismic hazard
Seismic risk
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
R=HxExV
Generalized conceptual scheme for seismic risk assessment using
holistic approach (Birkmann, 2006)
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QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT
RISK = probability Х consequence
(Ansell 1992; FEMA 2004)
C
O
N
S
E
Q
U
E
N
C
E
S
ST
RO
N
G
MODERATE
RISK
HIGH RISK
W
EA
K
LOW RISK
MODERATE
RISK
LOW
HIGH
COLLAPSE PROBABILITY
QUALITATIVE ESTIMATION
RISK = hazard Х vulnerability
(Varnes, 1984)
R = Hazard Х Vulnerability Х Exposure
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EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS
(i) Conventional methods classical concept preliminary assessment of
probable damage related to given time period (Coburn and Spence 2002);
(ii) Holistic methods multidisciplinary modelling of risk sources through
system of common indicators and indices (Vahdat and Smith, 2010).
INDICES
Davidson (1997, 1998) as “Earthquake Disaster Risk Index”
(EDRI), a composite index to compare the relative risk of
cities subject to various socio-economic factors.
INDICATORS
PROCESSED INFORMATION
BASIC DATA
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The Earthquake Risk Concept Vulnerability
GIS and Earthquake Risk Management
SPATIAL DATA COMPATIBILITY
INSPIRE Directive 2007/2 of the the EC Annex III
Theme 12 –
Natural risk zones
ANNEX 1
Administrative units,
Transport networks,
Hydrography,
Protected sites
ANNEX 2
Elevation,
Land Cover,
Geology
ANNEX 3
Buildings,
Soil,
Land use,
Human health and safety,
Utility and governmental services,
Production and industrial facilities,
Population distribution and demography,
Energy Resources, etc.
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Building Datasets
EARTHQUAKE
HAZARD
GIS ENVIRONMENT
Inittial / Basic Datasets
BUILDINGS AND
STRUCTURES
BASIC DATA PROCESSING
ENGINEERING
Comparative analysis of the cartographic
materials;
GEOLOGICAL
DATA
Creating new maps;
DEMOGRAPHIC
Data systematization;
В ГИС СРЕДА
AND SOCIAL DATA
BUSINESS
STATISTICS
GEOINFORMATION
DATA
RISK
ESTIMATION
Defining criteria for expert risk estimation adopting a system of indicators and indices for
earthquake risk estimation;
Computing relevant indices and weighting
coefficients
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Relevant Earthquake Risk Sources and Risk Elements
VULNERABILITY
Buildings
Direct impacts
and damages
Human losses
Critical infrastructure
Earthquake
Floods
Induced impacts
Fires
Hazardous materials
HAZARD
Debris / Smothering / dust ,
etc.
Related / associated / factors
Direct and induced socioeconomic losses
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Preliminary Analysis of Available Information
More than 15 maps and several atlases at various scales;
Reproducing of similar thematic maps on different scale - not respecting the
rules of cartographic generalization;
Lack of professional qualitative and quantitative evaluation;
Various map producers;
Different way of retrieving information for the map content;
Several discrepancies were discovered;
Insufficient and / or unclear information, associated with different map
coordinate system, scales, symbol system, accuracy, cartographic
experience, etc.
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IDS Conceptual Model
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Module 1: Seismic Hazard and Seismic Action
98
%
Regulatory provisions for earthquake resistance
1987
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Town
1964
1977
MSK / кс
1000 years*
1987
Balchik
Burgas
Kavarna
Varna
Vidin
V. Tarnovo
Russe
Pleven
Plovdiv
Sofia
St. Zagora
Yambol
----------VII / 0,10
----VIII / 0,15
VII / 0,10
-----
VII / 0,10
--VII / 0,10
VII / 0,10
VII / 0,10
VIII / 0,15
VII / 0,10
VII / 0,10
VIII / 0,15
VIII / 0,15
-----
IX / 0,27
VII / 0,10
IX / 0,27
VII / 0,10
VII / 0,10
VIII / 0,15
VIII
VII / 0,10
IX / 0,27
IX / 0,27
VIII / 0,15
VIII / 0,15
2012 Eurocode 8
reference ground acceleration (g)
95 years* 475 years* 1000 years*
0,11
0,07
0,11
0,07
0,07
0,11
0,11
0,07
0,15
0,11
0,07
0,07
0,15
0,11
0,23
0,11
0,11
0,15
0,15
0,11
0,23
0,23
0,15
0,15
0,09-0,13
< 0,09
0,09-0,13
< 0,09
< 0,09
< 0,09
0,09-0,13
< 0,09
0,09-0,13
0,09-0,13
< 0,09
< 0,09
* Return period
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2 Regulations in force:
(a) Ordinance № RD-02-20-2 from 27.01.2012 (1987) for design and construction in seismic areas
(b) Eurocodes system - EN 1998-1:2004 and BDS EN 1998-1:2005/NA: 2012 (2010).
Comparison 1987 – 2004 (475 years recurrence period)
Overplayed maps of seismic hazard maps for
different recurrent periods and regulations
Overlayed map of seismic
hazard map (1987) and
interpolated isolinies from
point acceleration values
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(Panza & Vaccari, 2002)
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Module 2 : Engineering Geology
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/apps/vs30/
Trifunac and Brady (1975); Paskaleva et al, 2001
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Module 3: Building Stock
Mercalli
Rossi-Forel
Omori
European
I
I
0
I
II
I–II
I
II
III
III
II
III
IV
IV–V
II–III
IV
V
V–VI
III
V
VI
VI–VII
IV
VI
VII
VIII-
IV–V
VII
VIII
VIII+ to
IX-
V
VIII
IX
IX+
V–VI
IX
X
X
VI
X
VII
XI
XI
—
XII
—
—
XII
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Regional data – RISK-UE Project
Capacity curves of typical buildings of the Balkan Region versus
the Bulgarian Seismic Action
Identification of Structures and Vulnerability
Literature data for vulnerability curves and
capacitive curves - no Bulgarian data
classification according EMS98
No
3
9
10
11
13
14
15
16
22
23
24
Design
code
N
N
N
N
L
L
L
L
М
Н
Н
Flrs*
Construction type
Author
ВЕ
ВЕ
НЕ
СЕ
НЕ
СЕ
ВЕ
НЕ
ВЕ
СЕ
ВЕ
RC frame, rigid nodes, RC1 RC
Shear walls; RC2 RC
RC moment frame, rigid nodes, RC
RC moment frame, rigid nodes, RC
Combined /dual systems RC
RC frame, infill masonry RC
RC frameRC1 RC
Combined /dual systems RC4 RC
КCombined /dual systems RC4 RC
UTCB, Romania
UTCB, Romania
AUTH, Thessaloniki
AUTH, Thessaloniki
AUTH, Thessaloniki
AUTH, Thessaloniki
AUTH, Thessaloniki
AUTH, Thessaloniki
IZIIS-Skopje
IZIIS-Skopje
IZIIS-Skopje
*НЕ: 1-3 етажа, h < = 9m;
СЕ: 4-7етажа, 9 m < h <= 21m;
ВЕ: 8 +етажа, h > 21 m
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New residential buildings, 2010
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Module 4: Demographic and Social Statistics
Overplayed map of seismic hazard map (Ordinance № RD-02-20-2; BDS EN 1998-1:2005/NA: 2012,
TR = 475) and density population II: Population grid 2011 of Bulgaria (Ahmedov and Dudova, 2014).
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Internet access, 2013
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Module 5: Business Statistics
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Data from the NSI, http://www.nsi.b
free available thematic maps
business information
scanned and processed maps for:
Urbanization process;
Transport infrastructure- density of the
international / national / regional network;
Mining and quarrying;
Electricity network;
Chemical industry;
Others.
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Module 6: Common “Basic” Information
In the process of unification of discrepancies in cartographic materials based
on vector data type for the Bulgarian territory in scale 1:250 000 provided by
the Military Topographic Service at the Ministry of Defense
State borders;
Lakes and dams;
Rivers and Danube River coastline;
District boundaries;
Settlements - by categories with a population of
over 10,000 people;
Classified roads - highways, roads I and II class;
Railways - electrified and non-electrified, bi- and
unidirectional.
DEM models from ASTER GDEM V2,
http://www.jspacesystems.or.jp and SRTM, ver. 3.0,
http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm
other free available data
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Data Processing
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Conclusive Remarks and Future Work
Earthquake Risk Estimation is based on vast variety of information sources – geospatial
information in broad temporal and spatial coverage is coupled with seismic hazard
assessments and common and particular vulnerability data;
Reliable
Earthquake Risk Estimation requires thorough collaborative multidisciplinary
efforts to assess and integrate the available databases performed with relevant sharing of
information;
Harmonization and unification of all data sets in accordance with national and European
legislation;
Unification of maps format and attribute tables, organizing them in a common database of
criteria for express expert risk assessment for large areas exposed to the seismic risk;
Future integration of IIDS in Web-based GIS environment.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Research project CNIP-UACG БН – 164/14 is kindly acknowledged.
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2_11101140_CMDR_2015_MKG_LP_et_al

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