The Nile Basin

The Nile Basin DSS
Grenzübergreifendes
Managementsystem für
Wasserressourcen im
Einzugsgebiet des Nils
© DHI Group
Presentation Monday, 22 June 2015
A transboundary DSS for
water resources
management in the Nile
River Basin
1
DHI in brief
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development
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We are global
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We are dedicated and committed to
Water
sufficiency
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Food
security
Sustainable
cities
Efficient
infrastructure
Climate
adaptation
Environmental
protection
Whatever your need in water environments
We can help you
Save
water
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Improve
its quality
Share it
fairly
Quantify
its impact
Protect from
its effects
Manage
its flow
Whatever your need in water environments
We can help you
Save
water
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Improve
its quality
Share it
fairly
Quantify
its impact
Protect from
its effects
Manage
its flow
The Nile Basin
• World’s Longest - 6700km
• Area: 3.2 million sq.km
• shared by 10 countries
• Population in basin > 200 mill.
• Water scarce area
• Rich natural and environmental
assets
6
The Nile Basin at a glance
1
Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y
2
Atbara (at Mouth); 11.1 BCM/y
3
1
2
3 4
White Nile (@ mogren); 11.1 BCM/y
4
Blue Nile (@ Khartoum); 48.3 BCM/y
9
Sudd outflow; 16.5 BCM/y
10
9
10
Sobat(@ Hillet Dolieb); 13.5 BCM/y
15
15
Bahr el -Jebel (@ Mongala); 36 BCM/y
19
19
20
Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y
20
Kagera (@ fery); 6.3 BCM/y
The Nile Basin at a glance
1
Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y
2
Atbara (at Mouth); 11.1 BCM/y
3
1
2
3 4
4
White Nile (@ mogren); 11.1 BCM/y
Blue Nile (@ Khartoum); 48.3 BCM/y
9
Sudd outflow; 16.5 BCM/y
10
Sobat(@ Hillet Dolieb); 13.5 BCM/y
1
15
15
Bahr el -Jebel (@ Mongala); 36 BCM/y
19
19
20
Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y
20
Kagera (@ fery); 6.3 BCM/y
The Nile Basin at a glance
1
Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y
2
1
2
3 4
9
10
15
19
20
The
Blue
Nile 11.1
Atbara
(at Mouth);
BCM/y
Lake
Victoria
basin
The3Sudd
Wetlands
•
~
60
per
cent
of annual
flow
White
Nile
(@
mogren);
11.1
BCM/y
•
transboundary
lake
The
Nile
Delta,
Egypt
•Unique
large tropical wetland (RAMSAR)
4
atincoming
Egypt
nd largest
• Nile
regulated
High
Dam
•Aswan,
2(@
freshwater
lake
Blue
Nile
Khartoum);
48.3
BCM/y
•~50%
offully
flow(Aswan
lost
to
ET
and
largest
in Africa
Close
zero
rainfall
9• Very
seasonal
••source
oftowater
for
domestic,
livestock,
Sudd
outflow;
16.5
BCM/y
• Well
developed
water
resources
•
Major
source
of water for
and
wildlife
use
(and
fishery)
• Limited water infrastructure
10
infrastructure
Urban
use, irrigation,
• Major
interest
to conserve
water lost
Sobat(@
Hillet
Dolieb);
13.5
BCM/y
•
Very
large
HPP
potential
• evaporation
Main
challenges:
decline
in
per
fishery,
navigation
by
(Jonglei
Canal)
15
capita
water
el
(@ Mongala);
36 BCM/y
• -Jebel
Keyavailability,
challenges:
lake
level
•Bahr
Opportunities
for declining
regional
water quality, sea level rise, soil
19
decline, water quality
cooperation
salinization
Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y
• Potential
impact of upstream
20
developments
on6.3
water
availability ?
Kagera (@ fery);
BCM/y
The situation in short
• Downstream countries that rely almost completely on the Nile water
• Upstream countries with a desire and potential to develop water infrastructure
• Environmental issues and important ecosystems (e.g. the Sudd, Lk. Vic)
• Water allocation agreements that inhibit upstream development projects
© DHI Group
Monday, June 22, 2015
10
Background
Key Treaties and Events
Various Bi-lateral Agreements
Sudan/Egypt and upstream riparians (no downstream
Impacts unless agreed with Sudan/Egypt)
High Aswan Dam (1955)
Capacity 111 BCM.
Nile Basin Treaty (1959):
55.5 BCM/yr for Egypt
18.5 BCM/yr for Sudan.
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Established (1999)
Under the NILE COM (Ministers of Water Affairs)
• promote cooperation and co-ordination in the Basin
The Nile Basin - Countries
- 3 year project
- 10 countries
- 8 priority concerns
EGY
BUR
SUD
RWA
SSUD
NBI
DRC
ETH
TAN
UGA
KEN
© DHI Group
Monday, June 22, 2015
12
Nile Basin DSS – Water Resources issues
Decision Support System: Requirements
… Nile Basin perspective
•
Provide a generic framework
•
Have a flexible architecture whereby different approaches for modeling
can be employed
•
Support modeling, scenario building and evaluation
•
Support multi-objective optimization and tradeoff analysis facility
•
Provide user extendable toolset for addressing specific issues; case of
environmental, socio-economic objectives
•
Provide transparent and simple facility for stakeholder dialogue in
evaluation of scenarios
•
Support collaboration and learning among riparian professionals
•
Process as important as the final product
14
Nile Basin Water Resources Management
Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
Cost benefit
Time series
System
optimization
GIS
Multi criteria
analysis
Scenarios
Solution
The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates climatological, hydrological and environmental
data with sophisticated water simulation models, together with sector economic production models, cost benefit and
multicriteria analysis tools.
Nile Basin Water Resources Management
Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
Solution
Cost benefit
System
optimization
Multi criteria
analysis
The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates data:
• Climatological
• Hydrological
• Environmental
Time series
GIS
with the following:
• sophisticated water simulation models
• sector economic production models
• cost benefit analysis
• multicriteria analysis tools
Scenarios
Building a Decision Support System
Implementation
Scoping and
solution design
and testing
Maintenance
and Support
NB DSS
© DHI Group
Monday, 22 June 2015
17
How it was done
Inception
High level software requirements
High level software architecture
Project Implementation Plan
Requirement and design
workshop
Detailed requirements
Detailed software design
Refined implementation plan
Release 1
Requirement and Design Document
Release 2
Software Release
Training
Release 3
Acceptance Test
Acceptance
© DHI Group
Monday, June 22, 2015
18
DSS components
•
Data/information management system
–
–
–
–
•
Modeling System
–
–
–
–
–
•
Time Series analysis toolkit
Basic GIS functionality
Integrated database
Ensemble generator (for probabilistic analysis)
Water balance and allocation model
Rainfall-runoff modeling tools
Hydrodynamic modeling
Soil erosion process model
Evapotranspiration modeling
Decision making/Analysis tools
–
–
–
–
Scenario management including indicator calculation
Multi-objective optimization
Economic analysis tools
Multi-criteria analysis tool
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Implementation
Customised
UI
A Typical RealTime Solution
RT data
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
sources
DIMS
Tasks
Roles
© DHI Group
Database
DIMS
Configuration
RealTime
UI
Web
publishing
Create jobs
Prepare data
Run models
Extract results
Dashboard
Manager
Config
MC Solution Designer
MC Configurator:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Client business processes
Use cases
Requirement documentation
User interface design
Monday, 22 June 2015
System knowledge
Scriptin
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MC Solution Developer
•
•
Develop custom made components
Develop Custom made UI
NB DSS Technology Framework
NB DSS
Time
series
Spreadsheets
GIS
MCA/CBA
Scenarios
Dashboard
(web
publishing)
Optimisation
Work
spaces
Ensembles
Meta data
Scripting
Indicators
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
RT data
sources
Data base
The Nile Basin Decision Support System in brief
The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a:.
comprehensive analytical framework that integrates:
-
Real time data
-
Information management system (database, GIS, data
processing tools, ..)
-
Water Resources Modeling system
-
Analytic tools (optimization, benefit-cost analysis, multi-criteria
analysis, ...)
In a user friendly graphical user interface (GUI)
22
Nile Basin baseline model (from NB DSS)
23
Scenario management tool
Tool to support defining, simulating, analyzing and evaluating scenarios
– Interactive (graphical) scenario definition/editing
– Simple visualization of scenarios
– Scenario simulation
– Scenario Comparison
24
NB DSS – a lot more than hydrology
Indicators of
What matters
Hydrology/Hydraulics
Response functions; other data
DSS Toolset
25
Decision making tools
- Economic analysis
of scenarios (CBA)
- Tradeoff analysis
26
- Multi-Criteria
Example of key issues being explored using NB DSS
•
Understanding how the water resources system of the Nile Basin operates
•
Climate Change Impacts
•
Assessing likely future scenarios
•
Downstream impacts of upstream developments
•
Finding mutually beneficial development/management paths
•
Intelligent operation schemes for new dams upstream to minimize impacts downstream?
•
How much water can be conserved from the wetlands?
•
What are the trade-offs (sectoral, country-wise, upstream-downstream) if hydropower
dams are developed in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia?
27
The developper’s view: DHI
•
Preparation
–
–
•
Knowledge
–
–
•
Take ownership and responsibility (through involvement of all key stakeholders)
Political backup
–
•
a strong group of competent and dedicated people to manage the project to interact and
challenge the consultant
That there is a real need and a clear vision
Responsibility
–
•
NBI secured buy-in by key stakeholders before the project starts
Know what they want and have made that clear in solid TOR/Project documents
Complex in the Nile Basin but DHI felt a genuine interest and back-up from water authorities and
some concern from political level
Sustainability
–
–
–
© DHI Group
Capacity (organisational and institutional)
Ability to sustain and further develop capacity
Money, funded through governments rather than donors
Monday, June 22, 2015
28
Dr. Elimar Precht – [email protected]
© DHI – Photo credits: © DHI / © istock / © Nestlé