KentucKy Derby

Kentucky
Derby
Wag e r i n g G u i d e
Kentucky Derby 2008 Photo © Horsephotos.com
May 2, 2009
Play the Kentucky Derby with
Churchill Downs
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Kentucky derby
Wagering Guide Updates
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Beginning Tuesday, April 28
see how they prep
by Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayerpro.com and ESPN.com analyst
The 1-1/8 miles preps are all-important – especially when you consider that since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except
Charismatic exited a 9-furlong final tune-up. How the horses finish late in these preps often is a key indicator as to how they
might handle the extra furlong at Churchill Downs. All fractional times are courtesy of DRF.com’s Formulator.
Florida Derby (March 28): final 3 furlongs in :37.06, final
final furlong in :12.50. Pioneerof the Nile found himself on
the lead. The final furlong was the slowest of any major prep
winner this spring. Runner-up Chocolate Candy finished best
of all in :36.23 and :12.25, while third-place Mr. Hot Stuff also
closed well in :36.41 and :12.31.
furlong in :12.44. Quality Road set a track record (1:47.72)
while obliterating the :38.08 and :12.98 closing fractions
Big Brown posted the previous year in this race. Runner-up
Dunkirk came home in :36.75, but could not sustain Quality
Road’s re-bid with a :12.57 final furlong.
Arkansas Derby (April 11): final 3 furlongs in :37.16,
final furlong in :12.26. Papa Clem showed a new dimension
sitting off a fast pace and punched home for the win. Third and
fourth-place finishers Summer Bird and Win Willy appeared
to be closing best, but actually only ran about a half-length
faster in the final three-eighths.
Illinois Derby (April 4): final 3 furlongs in :37.07, final
furlong in :12.47. Musket Man was solid with these strong
come-home times, and he ran a strong second-quarter in :23.30
as the Illinois Derby pace quickened on the backstretch.
Wood Memorial (April 4): final 3 furlongs in :36.49, final
furlong in :11.96. I Want Revenge finished as strong on the
clock as any horse this spring for the final furlong. Runner-up
West Side Bernie finished well in :36.79.
Blue Grass (April 11): final 3 furlongs in :35.87, final furlong
in :11.94. General Quarters was phenomenal coming home
with each fraction throughout his race getting faster. Runnerup Hold Me Back came home in a sharp :35.97 and his :11.77
final furlong was the spring’s best anywhere.
Santa Anita Derby (April 4): final 3 furlongs in :36.77,
KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE
Year
Winner ($2 payoff)
Jockey-Trainer Combo
Days
Off
2008 Big Brown ($6.80)
Desormeaux-R. Dutrow 35
2007Street Sense ($11.80)
Borel-Nafzger
21
2006 Barbaro ($14.20)
Prado-Matz
35
2005Giacomo ($102.60)Smith-Shirreffs
28
2004Smarty Jones ($10.20*)Elliott-Servis
21
2003 Funny Cide ($27.60) Santos-Tagg
21
2002War Emblem ($43.00) Espinoza-Baffert
21
2001 Monarchos ($23.00)
Chavez-Ward
21
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus ($6.60*) Desormeaux-Drysdale 21
1999 Charismatic ($64.60) Antley-Lukas
14
1998Real Quiet ($18.80) Desormeaux-Baffert 28
1997Silver Charm ($10.00) Stevens-Baffert
28
1996Grindstone ($13.80)
Bailey-Lukas
21
Prep Fin.-
Prep Loc.
Pos. ¼ M Pos. ½ M Into Race Into Race
1-Florida Derby 4th- 1 ½L
2-Blue Grass
18th-15L
1-FL Derby
5th-3 ¼ L
4-SA Derby
18th-16L
1-Ark Derby
2nd-1 ½L
2-Wood
4th-2L
1-IL Derby
1st-½L
2-Wood
13th-13L
1-Wood
15th -12L
1-Lexington
7th-3 ¾L
2-SA Derby
8th-6 3/4L
2-SA Derby
6th-1 ½L
2-Ark Derby
15th-15L
6th- 2 ½L
19th-19L
4th-4L
18th-14L
2nd-2L
3rd-2L
1st -1½L
13th-16L
13th-8 ¾L
7th-3 ½L
6th-8L
4th-2L
15th-13L
Fav. Fin
(Odds)
1st (2/1)
1st (9/2)
7th (5/1)
7th (5/2)
1st (4/1)
2nd (5/2)
7th (6/1)
5th (9/5)
1st (2/1)
5th/11th (9/2-e)
3rd (5/2)
2nd (3/1)
5th (7/2)
*denotes starting favorite
EXPERT SELECTION GRID
Host Bob Neumeier Mike Battaglia
(NBC Sports)
(NBC Sports)
First
Dunkirk
Pioneerof the Nile
Second
Quality Road
Quality Road
Jeff Siegel
Jon White
Dick Jerardi
Steve Byk
Gary West
(HRTV)
(HRTV)
(Phila. Daily News)
(Sirius Radio)
(FW Star-Telegram)
Dunkirk
Pioneerof the Nile
Quality Road
Quality Road
Quality Road
Quality RoadI Want RevengeWin WillyHold Me Back
Third Pioneerof the NileI Want RevengeI Want Revenge
FourthSquare EddieHold Me Back
Mr. Hot Stuff
Quality Road
Papa Clem
Dunkirk
Friesan FireI Want RevengeI Want Revenge
General Quarters
Mr. Hot StuffWest Side Bernie
Meet the 2009 derby contenders
by Johnny D.
XpressBet.com
I WANT REVENGE
improving. Jones says there’s no reason to doubt his colt can
run a mile and one-quarter. So, if you’re buying what Jones
is selling (and there’s no hard evidence to the contrary) then
Friesan Fire is all that and a bag of chips.
The song says: if you can make it in New York you can make it
anywhere. If that’s true, I Want Revenge is a cinch to win the
Derby. After all, he won the Gotham by a country mile and
then recovered from a disastrous start and near-mugging in PIONEEROF THE NILE
the stretch to win the Wood in convincing fashion. However,
despite his Big Apple tour-de-force, ‘revenge’ is what this He keeps winning, but hasn’t gotten many style points
horse seeks in the Derby against Pioneerof the Nile—a because he has pulled his rider to the front in slow-paced
horse who’s defeated him
races. Will he ‘pull’ himself
twice. Those were on synthetic
to the front in the Kentucky
surfaces. I Want Revenge has
Derby, or will he finally
proven much more effective
get some early pace to
on natural footing. Did a pair
run at?
Another large
of huge New York races take
question some folks have
too much out of this son of Wagering
Morning
Final $2 Will
about
Pioneerof
the
Line Odds Odds
Pay
Stephen Got Even, or will Interest
Nile is whether or not he
he continue to improve and
will handle the Churchill
I Want Revenge
8-1
9-2
$11.60
even the score against his old
Downs dirt surface. He has
Quality Road
6-1
6-1
$14.20
foes in the Derby?
raced exclusively on turf
and artificial surfaces in
Friesan Fire 8-1
8-1
$18.80
the past. Will he ‘freak-out’
QUALITY ROAD
Pioneerof the Nile
10-1
9-1
$21.20
and run even better on dirt
He’s got speed and he keeps
than he has on the fake
8-1
11-1
$25.00
going. Like in baseball where Dunkirk
stuff like I Want Revenge
batters can’t hit what they
and Papa Clem did? Or will
Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
can’t see, in horse racing
he regress? One thing’s for
it’s equally difficult to pass
sure, Pioneerof the Nile has
something you can’t catch.
defeated horses that have
There aren’t any knocks against Quality Road’s smashing gone on to do great things outside of California. As a May
win in the Fountain of Youth or his definitive maiden score at foal, Pioneerof the Nile won’t actually be 3-years-old when
Aqueduct in late November. After the Florida Derby, Quality they run the Kentucky Derby, so he has a right to continue
Road suffered a quarter-crack which quickly was treated. to improve. If he was solid enough to beat high-class foes
The good news is that the problem surfaced early enough before, how good will he become with a few more weeks of
for him to heal a bit. The bad news is that it occurred at all. development?
The Kentucky Derby is notorious for finding a chink in any
horse’s armor and, so far, a quarter-crack is about the only DUNKIRK
weakness this horse has displayed while winning three of
four starts.
Dunkirk has displayed talent in winning two of three
lifetime starts. However, that’s not much experience for a
Derby contender and he’s never won a stakes race. Dunkirk
FRIESAN FIRE
also did not race at two, the kiss of death for Derby hopefuls.
Looking for his fourth consecutive victory, Friesan Fire is No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without
attempting to win the Derby without having raced since racing as a 2-year-old. Trends and statistics aside, Dunkirk’s
March 14. That’s a difficult assignment. Traditionally, Derby ability is unquestioned. He broke his maiden easily in his first
runners have required more recent racing. But trainer Larry start and returned to deliver an amazing performance going
Jones has saddled the runner-ups in each of the last two a mile and one-eighth while racing very wide. Finally, he
Kentucky Derbies—Hard Spun and the ill-fated Eight Belles, finished second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby after
a filly, no less. Friesan Fire has a great running style—he making a huge move on the turn. Dunkirk’s rise to stardom
stalks, pounces and widens in the lane—and he is steadily has been swift, but his experience is limited.
2009 KENTUCKY DERBY
FUTURE WAGER POOL 3
DUNKIRK SHOOTS AND SCORES
by Bob Neumeier
NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: Since we also are in the throes of the NHL’s Stanley
Stats & Trends:
Cup playoffs, let’s try and score a Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby
“hat trick.” Your intrepid correspondent saw with his own two eyes
sensational Florida Derby efforts by Barbaro and Big Brown, and
used those observations to correctly tab and wager on both in the
subsequent Run for the Roses. Since “things happen in threes,” why
not go for another Gulfstream Park grad in 2009?
WIN-PLACE-SHOW
(Last 20 years)
Average Win Odds: 12.28-to-1
High Win Odds: 50.30-to-1
(Giacomo, 2005)
Low Win Odds: 2.30-to-1
(Fuscaichi Pegasus, 2000)
Notable: 8 of last 13 Derby winners were
6-to-1 or less.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Here’s the dilemma – Quality Road or
Dunkirk? Dunkirk or Quality Road? Both colts put on a sensational
show at the Florida Derby and they are quite difficult to separate.
Quality Road showed a wonderfully relaxed stride in his first effort
around two turns and had the gumption to hold off the hardcharging Dunkirk. The latter’s middle-move in only his third career
race took your breath away, and only an incremental improvement
would give trainer Todd Pletcher his elusive Derby prize after going
0-for-21 to date.
VALUE PLAYS: Should Quality Road and Dunkirk falter, then
Pioneerof the Nile is the most likely winner. Obviously, he must
answer the annoying question of synthetics-to-dirt that the Lords
of racing have bestowed on handicappers. Actually, the price on
all three of these leading contenders might be generous if the I
Want Revenge bandwagon rolls into high gear. Racing touts and
many turf writers salivate over “troubled trips,” as I Want Revenge
encountered in the Wood Memorial. But he looks like the classic
underlay. True, his Gotham speed figure was brilliant – maybe just
too fast. I sense regression for I Want Revenge at Churchill.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
•
•
•
•
$40 Win: DUNKIRK ($40)
$20 Exacta Box: DUNKIRK and QUALITY ROAD ($40)
$10 Exacta: DUNKIRK over PIONEEROF THE NILE ($10)
$10 Exacta: QUALITY ROAD over PIONEEROF THE NILE ($10)
Stats & Trends and Know This information provided by
Jeremy Plonk, NBC Sports Triple Crown researcher.
Average Place Odds: 15.60-to-1
High Place Odds: 71.60-to-1
(Closing Argument, 2005)
Low Place Odds: .80-to-1
(Easy Goer/entry, 1989)
Notable: 7 of last 9 Derby runner-ups have
been 10-to-1 or more.
Average Show Odds: 15.38-to-1
High Show Odds: 86.90-to-1
(Mane Minister, 1991)
Low Show Odds: .80-to-1
(Awe Inspiring/entry, 1989)
Notable: 12 of last 14 Derby show horses
were 10-to-1 or less.
Know This:
Winning Derby Post Positions (1900-2008)
1. 12
11. 3
2. 9
12. 3
3. 8
13. 4
4. 10
14. 2
5. 12
15. 3
6. 6
16. 3
7. 8
17. 0
8. 9
18. 1
9. 4
19. 0
10. 10
20. 2
SELECTIONS:
1. DUNKIRK 3. PIONEEROF THE NILE
2. QUALITY ROAD 4. SQUARE EDDIE
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Exotic Wagering
Chart
Kentucky Derby exotic wagers
usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering
Chart to help plan your attack.
exacta box: ($2 Wager)
trifecta keys: ($1 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
exacta wheel: ($2 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18
trifecta box: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
Superfecta box: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
Superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
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Superfecta Keys: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, April 28
Visit XpressBet.com
SINCE WHEN IS WINNING SO BAD?
by Mike Battaglia
NBC Sports Racing Analyst
ANALYSIS: It seems like the more Pioneerof the Nile wins,
Stats & Trends:
the less respect he gets. He is clearly the best horse on the west
coast this year, and several of the horses he has beaten have gone
elsewhere to post impressive wins. I Want Revenge, Papa Clem,
Chocolate Candy and Advice all have finished behind him at some
point, and all have gone on to win major preps at other tracks. I
am aware that he has never run on dirt, but his pedigree suggests
that he will handle the move. Trainer Bob Baffert should have him
ready to go with Garrett Gomez opting for him over the more hyped
Dunkirk.
EXACTA
(Last 20 years)
Average $2 Exacta Payoff: $818.99
High $2 Exacta Payoff: $9,814.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005)
Low $2 Exacta Payoff: $15.20
(Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, 1989)
Notable: 4 of the last 6 exactas have
returned $142 or less.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Obviously, Quality Road is an
TRIFECTA
(Wager Available Last 15 Years)
Average $2 Trifecta Payoff: $13,652.16
High $2 Trifecta Payoff: $133,134.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex,
2005)
Low $2 Trifecta Payoff: $205.40
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House,
1997)
Notable: 4 of the last 8 Derby trifectas
produced either five or six-digit $2 payoffs.
exceptional horse. He has a high cruising speed and was extremely
impressive in the Florida Derby. He is the one to beat. I Want
Revenge seems to be getting better with every race. To overcome
all that trouble and still win the Wood makes him a must-use for the
gimmicks. Dunkirk also has a ton of talent, but the main drawback
with him is the fact that he has only had three races. Friesian Fire
rates high on a lot of lists, but he has a few things going against him:
The seven-week layoff; the fact that he has never been past a mile
and one-sixteenth; and the fact that his best race was in the slop. I
will throw out Friesan Fire unless it rains.
VALUE PLAYS: Hold Me Back should go off at big odds.
He won the Lane’s End off of a four-month layoff and may have
bounced a bit in the Blue Grass. Three straight races at a mile
and one-eighth should have him coming into the Derby in top
condition. Chocolate Candy appears to be moving in the right
direction. He closed well in the Santa Anita Derby, but still doesn’t
figure to get much respect at the windows.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Win: PIONEEROF THE NILE ($20)
• $10 Exacta Box: PIONEEROF THE NILE with QUALITY ROAD,
I WANT REVENGE and DUNKIRK. ($60)
• $5 Exacta Box: PIONEEROF THE NILE with HOLD ME BACK and
CHOCOLATE CANDY ($20)
SUPERFECTA
(Wager Available Last 14 Years)
Average $1 Superfecta Payoff: $94,522.95
High $1 Superfecta Payoff: $864,253.50
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet AlexDon’t Get Mad, 2005)
Low $1 Superfecta Payoff: $350.00
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free HousePulpit, 1997)
Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers:
20.50-to-1
Notable: 8 of the last 10 Derby superfectas
have produced five or six-digit $1 payoffs.
Know This:
Bob Baffert needs one more Triple Crownrace win to tie Max Hirsch and “Ben” Jones
with nine. “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons and D.
Wayne Lukas have the most with 13 each.
SELECTIONS:
1. PIONEEROF THE NILE 3. I WANT REVENGE
2. QUALITY ROAD 4. HOLD ME BACK
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FLORIDA DERBY IS KEY TO KENTUCKY VERSION
by Jeff Siegel
HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: In evaluating this year’s key Kentucky Derby prep races,
Stats & Trends:
I’ve concluded that the Florida Derby clearly was the strongest (and
fastest) of the lot, and thus believe that the first jewel in America’s Triple
Crown will be won by a horse exiting that race. But which one should
I pick? Quality Road may enjoy an advantage with the excellent use
of his tactical speed, and his 111 Beyer figure – on the heels of the 113
he earned in winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes – illustrates how
extremely talented he is. But Dunkirk, second-best to Quality Road
at Gulfstream Park with a less-than-ideal trip, actually galloped out
stronger than his rival and could easily turn the tables in what will be
only his fourth career start.
Last Major Prep Winners to Win Derby
Arkansas Derby: Smarty Jones (2004)
Blue Grass: Strike the Gold (1991)
Florida Derby: Big Brown (2008)
Fountain of Youth: Thunder Gulch (1995)
Illinois Derby: War Emblem (2002)
Lexington: Charismatic (1999)
Louisiana Derby: Grindstone (1996)
Santa Anita Derby: Sunday Silence (1989)
Lane’s End: Lil E Tee (1992)
Wood Memorial: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000)
MAIN CONTENDERS: I Want Revenge will have plenty of
support, and deservedly so. Tons the best despite a nightmarish journey
in the Wood Memorial, the son of Stephen Got Even shrugged off a
poor start and traffic trouble at the furlong pole like water off his back,
and there’s no doubt he’ll enjoy the Derby’s 10-furlong distance. But
the competition was weak, and both Quality Road and Dunkirk likely
would have done the same, with or without that trouble. Friesan Fire
has credentials – he’ll handle dirt and he’ll handle slop – but the sevenweek layoff is a major concern. And Pioneerof the Nile looks appealing
on paper, but he’s simply not that good.
VALUE PLAYS: I Want Revenge’s troubled trip in the Wood
Memorial is well documented and will adversely affect his value on the
tote. If it rains, Friesan Fire may deserve an increased look. Mr. Hot
Stuff, a closing third into the teeth of slow fractions in the Santa Anita
Derby, is just beginning to realize what always has been expected of
him.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Win: DUNKIRK ($20)
• $5 Trifecta Key: DUNKIRK over QUALITY ROAD, I WANT REVENGE,
MR. HOT STUFF ($30)
• $10 Exacta Box: DUNKIRK and QUALITY ROAD ($20)
• $1 Trifecta Box: DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, I WANT REVENGE and
MR. HOT STUFF ($24)
• $3 Exacta Box: QUALITY ROAD and MR. HOT STUFF ($6)
Arkansas Derby Alumni in Recent Derbies
2008Gayego
17th
2007 Curlin
3rd
2006Steppenwolfer
3rd
2005Afleet Alex
3rd
2004Smarty Jones
1st
Sires to Produce Recent Kentucky Derby
Winners
Year
Sire
Sire’s Longest Stakes Win
2008 Boundary
2007Street Cry
2006 Dynaformer
2005Holy Bull
2004Elusive Quality
2003 Distorted Humor
2002Our Emblem
2001 Maria’s Mon
2000 Mr. Prospector
1999Summer Squall
1998 Quiet American
6 F / G3
1-1/4 M / G1
1-1/4 M / G2
1-1/4 M / G1
1 M (T) / G3
1 M / G3
placed 1M / G1
1-1/16 M / G1
6 F / G2
1-3/16 M / G1
1-1/16 M / G3
Know This:
Worst Final Prep Finishes to Win the Derby
(1906-present)
12thStone Street 1908
5thIron Liege
1957
th
5 Count Turf
1951
5th Doneraile
1913
5th Pink Star
1907
SELECTIONS:
1. DUNKIRK 3. I WANT REVENGE
2. QUALITY ROAD 4. MR. HOT STUFF
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‘NILE HAS WINNING STYLE
by Jon White
HRTV and Santa Anita Analyst
ANALYSIS: The way I see it, Pioneerof the Nile will be the one
Stats & Trends:
draped in roses, making it four Kentucky Derby victories for trainer
Bob Baffert (who enters the Hall of Fame this year). Not only that, I
believe Pioneerof the Nile might sweep the Triple Crown. He has
a better resume going into the Kentucky Derby than past Baffert
trainees Silver Charm and Real Quiet, in that they lost the San Felipe
Stakes and Santa Anita Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby
and nearly sweeping the Triple Crown. Pioneerof the Nile won
both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Also, Garrett Gomez
has opted to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk. That’s a strong
endorsement right there. Pioneerof the Nile has defeated 13 stakes
winners, including Kentucky Derby candidates I Want Revenge
(twice), Chocolate Candy (twice) and Papa Clem. Compare that
to Dunkirk, who has defeated only one stakes winner (Stately
Character). Dunkirk also didn’t race at 2. There have been 126
straight Kentucky Derby winners who did race at 2 since Apollo in
1882.
Highest Career Beyer Speed Figures
Heading into Kentucky Derby
MAIN CONTENDERS: Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof
the Nile, Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge, Florida Derby
winner Quality Road, Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem and
Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire have the look of major players.
VALUE PLAYS: Stretch-runner Chocolate Candy is dangerous
after finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby despite a lack of
pace.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
•
•
•
•
•
•
$40 Win: PIONEEEROF THE NILE ($40)
$8 Exacta Box: PIONEEEROF THE NILE and I WANT REVENGE ($16)
$8 Exacta Box: PIONEEEROF THE NILE and QUALITY ROAD ($16)
$6 Exacta: PIONEEEROF THE NILE over PAPA CLEM ($6)
$6 Exacta: PIONEEEROF THE NILE over CHOCOLATE CANDY ($6)
$4 Exacta Part-Wheel: PIONEEEROF THE NILE over DESERT PARTY,
FRIESAN FIRE, GENERAL QUARTERS and MUSKET MAN ($16)
SELECTIONS:
1. PIONEEEROF THE NILE 3. QUALITY ROAD
2. I WANT REVENGE
4. PAPA CLEM
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 28
(winners listed in bold)
2008 Bob Black Jack
2007 Street Sense
2005 Bellamy Road
2004Read the Footnotes
2003Empire Maker
2002 War Emblem
2001 Millennium Wind
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus
1999 Charismatic
Excellent Meeting
General Challenge
1998Indian Charlie
1997 Silver Charm
Free House
1996Unbridled’s Song
1995Serena’s Song
1994Holy Bull
1993 Diazo
1992 Lil E. Tee
Pine Bluff
Devil His Due
109
108
120
113
111
112
114
111
108
108
108
112
110
110
114
114
115
109
107
107
107
16th
1st
5th
7th
2nd
1st
11th
1st
1st
5th
11th
3rd
1st
3rd
5th
16th
12th
5th
1st
5th
12th
Birthplace of Derby Winners
101 – Kentucky
6 – Florida
4 – Virginia
3 – California
3 – Tennessee
2 –New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas,
Canada, England
Know This:
Color-Coded
Last Gray to win: Giacomo (2005)
Last Roan to win: Winning Colors (1988)
Last Bay to win: Big Brown (2008)
Last Chestnut to win: Smarty Jones (2004)
Last Dark Bay/Brown to win: Street Sense
(2007)
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DERBY’S A ‘QUALITY ROAD’
by Dick Jerardi
Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
ANALYSIS: This is a far better group than the one Big Brown
Stats & Trends:
overwhelmed a year ago. That said one horse, because of running
style, big speed figures and consistent excellence, jumps off the
page. By running style, Quality Road reminds one of Smarty Jones.
That the colt is by Elusive Quality, Smarty’s sire, only adds to the
comparison. Smarty’s trainer John Servis sees the similarities and
said, in admiration, nobody really knows how good Quality Road
might be yet. The dominating wins in the Fountain of Youth and
Florida Derby (when the colt re-broke in the stretch to fend off that
big rally by Dunkirk) told a story. That this Derby may have little
quality early speed should only enhance Quality Road’s chances
2008 Derby Handle Totals
Win, Place, Show:
$47.9 million
Exacta:
$22.6 million
Trifecta:
$27.0 million
Superfecta:
$9.0 million
Pick Four:
$1.7 million
Oaks/Derby Double: $2.0 million
Pick Six:
$676,018
Super High Five:
$331,928
MAIN CONTENDERS: Dunkirk cost $3.7 million. The colt
may be worth all of that. And more. To run past some really good
horses around the turn in the Florida Derby was an indication of the
depth of the colt’s talent. That he couldn’t go by Quality Road says
more about Quality Road than Dunkirk. Friesan Fire got better in
each of his three stakes wins this winter at Fair Grounds, capped by
his big score over the sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby. I Want
Revenge overcame lengths of trouble to win the Wood Memorial
and is a new horse on dirt.
VALUE PLAYS: There is a chance Quality Road could be
value because I Want Revenge may be overbet in relation to
his true chances. Pioneerof the Nile, with popular three-time
Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, is also likely to get overbet. Live
superfecta horses, with certain double-digit odds, include strong
closers like Rebel Stakes winner Win Willy, Illinois Derby winner
Musket Man and Blue Grass Stakes winner General Quarters.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $40 Exacta: QUALITY ROAD over WIN WILLY ($40).
• $1 Superfecta Key: QUALITY ROAD over WIN WILLY, MUSKET MAN,
GENERAL QUARTERS, PAPA CLEM and FRIESAN FIRE ($60).
Lowest-Priced Derby Favorites
(Last 20 Years)
.80-to-1Easy Goer/Awe Inspiring entry
(1989, 2nd/3rd)
.90-to-1Arazi (1992, 8th)
1.80-to-1 Point Given (2001, 5th)
2.10-to-1Summer Squall (1990, 2nd)
2.20-to-1Holy Bull (1994, 12th)
Highest-Priced Favorites in Derby History
6.00-to-1 – Harlan’s Holiday (2002, 7th)
5.50-to-1 – Sweetnorthernsaint (2006, 7th)
4.90-to-1 – Street Sense (2007, 1st)
4.80-to-1 – General Challenge/Excellent
Meeting (1999, 5th)
4.40-to-1 – Prairie Bayou (1993, 2nd)
4.10-to-1 – Smarty Jones (2004, 1st)
Highest-Priced Derby Superfecta Finishers (Last 22 Years)
86.90-to-1 Mane Minister (1991, 3rd)
71.60-to-1 Closing Argument (2005, 2nd)
65.80-to-1 Video Ranger (1990, 4th)
50.30-to-1Giacomo (2005, 1st)
41.70-to-1Limehouse (2004, 4th)
Know This:
Street Sense is the only horse out of 16
since 2006 to go from a race over an
artificial surface to the Derby winner’s circle.
Hard Spun (2nd 2007) is the only one of the
group to finish better than 5th.
SELECTIONS:
1. QUALITY ROAD 3. FRIESAN FIRE
2. WIN WILLY
4. GENERAL QUARTERS
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‘09 WINNER WILL TOP BEST GROUP IN YEARS
by Steve Byk
At the Races with Steve Byk (Sirius Radio) Host
ANALYSIS: The 135th Kentucky Derby has one of the better
Stats & Trends:
casts of sophomores in many years. This season’s Derby run-up has
produced several distinguished, multiple-prep winners who arrive
in Louisville with the kind of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures that
typically earmark rose-blanket recipients. Of those, possible favorite
Quality Road sticks out as the most logical winner of Derby 135 from
standpoints of pace, speed and intangeables.
Fastest Derby Runnings
1:59-2/5 –Secretariat (1973)
1:59-4/5 – Monarchos (2001)
2:00
–Northern Dancer (1964)
2:00-1/5 –Spend A Buck (1985)
2:00-2/5 – Decidedly (1962)
MAIN CONTENDERS: California synthetic star Pioneerof the
Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners Last 50 Years
Nile looks the part of a Derby winner if he takes to the dirt under
Garrett Gomez. I Want Revenge and 19-year-old pilot Joe Talamo
overcame the kind of trouble in the Wood that should serve as ideal
experience in a 20-horse field. Dunkirk may be a 2009 version of
Curlin–light on experience but talented. Friesan Fire has been away
since his Louisiana Derby win, and will try to move his connections
into the Derby winner’s circle after back-to-back second-place finishes
with Eight Belles and Hard Spun. Desert Party is bred for classic
success and may be Godolphin’s best chance yet for a Derby win.
VALUE PLAYS: Hold Me Back will be discounted because of his
darkened dirt form from last year’s Remsen, but he is a dangerous late
runner under three-time Derby-winning rider, Kent Desormeaux. Mr.
Hot Stuff, a full-brother of Travers winner Colonel John, is developing
rapidly, almost as fast as Pioneerof the Nile, and is certain to be 30-1
or more. With a repeat of his Arkansas Derby effort, Summer Bird
could stun the superfecta as one of the longest prices on the board.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $10 Win and Place: HOLD ME BACK ($20)
• $3 Trifecta Key: QUALITY ROAD over I WANT REVENGE and HOLD ME BACK over I WANT REVENGE, HOLD ME BACK, MR. HOT STUFF,
DESERT PARTY, DUNKIRK, MUSKET MAN, FRIESAN FIRE, PIONEEROF
THE NILE, WEST SIDE BERNIE, CHOCOLATE CANDY and SUMMER
BIRD ($60)
• $1 Trifecta Key: I WANT REVENGE, HOLD ME BACK over QUALITY
ROAD over I WANT REVENGE, HOLD ME BACK, MR. HOT STUFF,
DESERT PARTY, DUNKIRK, MUSKET MAN, FRIESAN FIRE, PIONEEROF
THE NILE, WEST SIDE BERNIE, CHOCOLATE CANDY and SUMMER
BIRD ($20)
Field Opening
Year Winner
Wagering Size Half-Mile
2002War Emblem 9th choice 18
1988Winning Colors 2nd choice 17
1985Spend A Buck 2nd choice 13
1976 Bold Forbes
2nd choice 9
1972Riva Ridge
favorite 16
1966 Kauai King
favorite 15
:47
:46-4/5
:45-4/5
:45-4/5
:47-3/5
:46-1/5
Pre-Derby Records of Recent
Derby-Winning Trainers
2008Rick Dutrow
0: 0-0-0
2007 Carl Nafzger
2: 1-0-0
2006 Michael Matz
0: 0-0-0
2005 John Shirreffs
0: 0-0-0
2004 John Servis
0: 0-0-0
2003 Barclay Tagg
0: 0-0-0
2002 Bob Baffert
11: 2-1-2
2001 John Ward
2: 0-0-0
2000Neil Drysdale
0: 0-0-0
1999 D. Wayne Lukas 33: 3-0-4
1998 Bob Baffert
3: 1-1-0
Know This:
Derby Winners Who Broke Their Maidens
as 3-Year-Olds (1933-present)
May 6, 1933
Broker’s Tip
Feb. 8, 1967
Proud Clarion
Feb. 3, 2001
Monarchos
Jan. 17, 1958
Tim Tam
Jan. 12, 1965Lucky Debonair
Jan. 5, 1940Gallahadion
Jan. 3, 1949
Ponder
Jan. 2, 2000
Fusaichi Pegasus
SELECTIONS:
1. QUALITY ROAD 3. I WANT REVENGE
2. HOLD ME BACK 4. MR. HOT STUFF
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FLORIDA SUN TO SHINE ON KENTUCKY
by Gary West
Fort Worth Star-Telegram Columnist
ANALYSIS: Injuries have knocked much of the speed out
Stats & Trends:
of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby in Kentucky could look very
much like a certain Derby in Florida, where Quality Road stalked
an overmatched upstart in moderate fractions, disposed of the
pacesetter to assume the lead after three-quarters of a mile, turned
back a bold challenger in mid-stretch and then, well, and then he
cruised, completing the final three-eighths in :37.06 while winning
with aplomb and ease. Yes, there’s the quarter crack. But with two
recent workouts that appear to have been outstanding, Quality
Road will enter the Kentucky Derby looking very sunny.
No April Preps
40 Derby starters since 1920 have gone
without a prep in April. They own a 40: 2-2-2
record.
Win: Big Brown (2008), Needles (1956)
Place: Hard Spun (2007), Staretor (1941)
Show: Perfect Drift (2002), Candy Spots
(1963)
MAIN CONTENDERS: Dunkirk, that bold challenger at
Gulfstream, sparkled around the second turn, with an internal
half-mile in :47.35, and he came home in :36.71. That ability to run
the turn usually pays dividends in Kentucky, and he’s eligible for
improvement. I Want Revenge was nothing less than sensational
in the Wood Memorial, overcoming a troubled start and advancing
in traffic to power his way through a final three-eighths in :36.37.
His Gotham was equally sensational, and so the worry is that he’s
ready to step back. Pioneerof the Nile defeated I Want Revenge
in California, and if he improves as some have when he makes the
synthetic-to-dirt move, he’s going to be a handful at Churchill.
Florida Derby Alumni in Recent Derbies
2008 Big Brown
1st
2008Smooth Air
11th
2007Imawildandcrazyguy
4th
2007Scat Daddy
18th
2007Stormello
19th
2006 Barbaro
1st
2006 Flashy Bull
14th
2006Sharp Humor
19th
Kentucky Derby History
Know This:
Blow-out Ability
VALUE PLAYS: West Side Bernie couldn’t quite stay with I
Want Revenge in the stretch at Aqueduct. Still, ‘Bernie ran the final
three-eighths in :36.64. With three races at 1 1/8 miles, he looks like
a horse who does his best work in the stretch. Mr. Hot Stuff finished
with energy and galloped out so strongly in both the Sham and
the Santa Anita Derby that he looks as if he could take another step
forward with the Derby’s classic distance.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: QUALITY ROAD and DUNKIRK, first and
second, over I WANT REVENGE, WEST SIDE BERNIE, PIONEEROF
THE NILE and MR. HOT STUFF ($40)
• $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: QUALITY ROAD and DUNKRIK, first and third,
with I WANT REVENGE, WEST SIDE BERNIE, PIONEEROF THE NILE
and MR. HOT STUFF in the middle ($40)
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: QUALITY ROAD over WEST SIDE BERNIE and
MR. HOT STUFF ($20)
Year
Derby Winner
Largest Prior
Win Margin
2008
Big Brown
2007Street Sense
2006
Barbaro
2005Giacomo
2004Smarty Jones
2003
Funny Cide
2002War Emblem
12-3/4 lengths
10 lengths
8-1/2 lengths
10 lengths
15 lengths
14-3/4 lengths
10-3/4 lengths
Modern Mismatches
Races Decided
Decade Avg. Derby Win Margin By Length Or Less
2000s
1990s
1980s
1970s
1960s
1950s
1940s
3.19 lengths
1.39 lengths
2.05 lengths 2.55 lengths
1.15 lengths
1.16 lengths
3.99 lengths
1
5
4
1
6
5
1
SELECTIONS:
1. QUALITY ROAD 3. I WANT REVENGE
2. DUNKIRK
4. WEST SIDE BERNIE
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WAG E R I N G G U
2009 Preakness Wagering Guide
Featured Experts:
Bob Neumeier & Mike Battaglia (NBC Sports), Jeff Siegel & Jon White (HRTV), Dick Jerardi
(Philadelphia Daily News), Steve Byk (Sirius Radio) and Gary West (Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
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