summer\fall 2014 • a definitive analysis of aspen

Transcription

®
SUMMER\FALL 2014 • A DEFINITIVE ANALYSIS OF ASPEN · SNOWMASS · BASALT REAL ESTATE
Photograph by Jeremy Swanson
BJ Adams and Company • AspenSnowmassProperties.com • [email protected] • Aspen – 970.922.2111 • Snowmass – 970.923.2111
1
A
The Aspen Report
spen’s winter season brought a strong increase in occupancy, helping to fuel a 25% increase
in Aspen real estate sales over the 2013 winter before. With an early ski area opening (16
days) and epic snow, there was a palpable sense of optimism in Aspen throughout the ski season.
The impact of stellar skiing conditions – and the spike in advance lodging reservations made in
response to them – cannot be underestimated. That the increase in both reservations and real estate
has continued into the summer has been welcome news to business leaders and sellers who have been
waiting for the local economy to show new signs of life. Such results put everyone in a good mood
and this, in combination with the prevailing sentiment in the media that the country’s economy and the
housing market, in particular, are recovering at a now accelerating pace, give most of us in the Aspen
real estate business a renewed sense of confidence about the future. As it is nationally, that confidence
is still measured, though, and while not yet wildly exuberant, it’s certainly far brighter than it’s been in
over five years. The market has stabilized, and even begun improving in many areas.
Welcome to The Aspen Report, our semi-annual examination of the upper Roaring Fork Valley
residential real estate market. This report is based on transactions that closed in the last 12 months and
compares both YTD and 12-month figures to activity that took place in previous periods.
Among many highlights: the greater market strengthened considerably in the last 12 months.
The number of sales continued to increase, exceeding 500 annual transaction sides for more
than two years now. And, total dollar volume increased 40% in the first half of 2014, as discerning
buyers began acquiring more expensive properties and “deals” disappeared. (See further indications of a
strengthening market on page 14)
These are just numbers, though, in the end. There is a great deal more to our observations that live in
our intuition and experience. We invite you to call us with your questions.
For a digital copy of this report and more information on the Aspen/Snowmass real estate market, visit
our website at AspenSnowmassProperties.com.
The Team at BJ Adams and Company
BJ Adams | Gus Kadota | Mark Lewis | Kristen Maley | Leah Moriarty | Doug Nehasil
Lucy Nichols | Casey Slossberg | Michelle Sullivan | Melissa Temple | Karen Toth | Tara Turner
What’s Inside
The Year at a Glance
3
Aspen Residential Activity
4
Aspen Downtown Reinvention
5
Aspen Commercial Projects Map
6
Snowmass Residential Activity
8
Snowmass New Development 9
Snowmass Base Village Map
10
Basalt Residential Activity
12
The Luxury Market
13
Noteworthy14
SF Home Sales by Neighborhood
15
Condo Sales by Neighborhood
17
Land Sales by Neighborhood
18
The BJ Adams and Company Manifesto 19
2
What this graph means:
Year-to-date sales from the 3 uppervalley communities, plus luxury
transactions, are plotted on the same
graph to visually illustrate the relative
rarity of sales over $7.5M, and the
differences in sales concentration in
the three areas with respect to price
and activity.
So far this year, the vast majority
of sales have occurred:
• Under $5 million in Aspen(94% of
139 transactions)
• Under $3 million in Snowmass
(94% of 100 transactions)
• Under $1 million in Basalt
(84% of 62 transactions)
Snack time at a BJAC window box
12 Months at a Glance | July 31, 2014
THE AVERAGE SALE IS
LUXURY
$13.2M
& IF WELL-PRICED, AVERAGES
395 DAYS TO SELL
INVENTORY IS
DOWN 7%
$3,000
AVG PRICE/SF
HI
$2,000
1525 1430
AVG
$1,000
LO
$0
ASPEN SMASS
12 MO CHANGE
-1%
ASPEN SNOWMASS
-8%
5%
In A Nutshell
The number of sales transactions
• has increased 4%,
• dollar volume has increased 48%,
• and inventory has dropped 5%.
Translation: The market is in recovery, but it is very neighborhood specific.
Some segments are considerably stronger than others. Read on.
3
Aspen Residential Activity
Sweet Spots: Central Core, West End, West Aspen
B
y all accounts, Aspen had a steady to upward trending year in 2013. Transactions increased slightly to 2007 levels and
average condominium prices per sq ft rose by 2%, while single family homes finally broke out of their 4-year sideways band of
around $970/sq ft, ending the year at $1020/sq ft, which has continued into 2014.
Meanwhile, neatly tucked inside of that average performance, Aspen’s Central Core condominiums have seen a 20%
increase in average prices, which are presently approaching $1300/sq ft. With downtown Aspen condo inventory now hovering
just above the one year sales number, and average asking prices for that inventory about 20% above 2013 sales prices, it seems
likely that prices will continue rising unless there is a substantial drop in demand. Our observation is that this segment of the market
is fully recovered - prices and
275 Pending
53 Closed YTD
113
activity are at or exceeding Inventory
2009 levels, inventory is low
-21%
33%
13%
from Jul 2013:
from Jul 2013:
from Jul 2013:
and priced close to the 2008
350
40
100
peak. Expect this sector to
Average Sold Price:
$2,412,637
Average Asking Price:
$2,858,879
Avg. Asking Price of Pendings: $2,802,769
Median Sold Price:
$2,100,000
keep rising.
CENTRAL CORE CONDOMINIUMS
Number of Listings/Sales
Avg Price per Sq Ft
listed
pending
2014 YTD
change
2013 YTD
last 12 mo
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
93
17
44
29%
34
85
75
84
74
57
46
$1,389
$1,395
$1,276
20%
$1,063
$1,212
$1,107
$1,019
$1,138
$1,113
$1,266
2008
49
$1,589
Homes in Red Mountain, the West End and West Aspen are similarly good, strong markets, although there is a great deal of buyer discernment
in play when prices get into the $8M+ range. Unfortunately, this same strength does not extend out beyond The Aspen Club to the east or
beyond the Maroon Creek Club to the west – these peripheral neighborhoods around the city, especially Mountain Valley, McLain Flats and
Starwood, are less stable. With every mile further from town, the lower the prices, the deeper the discounts, and the longer the selling times.
inventory
at 07/31/2014
Number
144
Dollar
$250,133,197
$1,212
Avg Price/SF
Avg Price
$1,737,036
Lowest Price
$125,000
Highest Price
$7,250,000
Avg Ask/Sold Discount
Avg Days on Market
326
closed
inventory
2014 YTD change last 12 mo
change 2008 "peak"
63
$110,531,975
$1,146
$1,754,476
$110,000
$5,700,000
5.8%
255
69%
74
26% $165,078,338
-25%
$1,424
-26%
$2,230,788
-53%
$235,000
-22%
$7,350,000
-1.1
7.4%
-15%
291
125
$207,192,638
27%
$1,074
42%
$1,657,541
2%
$110,000
-1%
$5,700,000
-0.5
6.3%
-26%
248
11%
57%
single family homes
condominiums/townhomes
All Aspen Residential Activity (except luxury sales)
closed
at 07/31/2014
change 2008 "peak"
96
$413,839,000
$1,082
$4,310,823
$215,000
$7,468,000
44
$148,495,000
$1,018
$3,374,886
$540,000
$7,000,000
8.4%
234
66%
53
21% $250,191,200
-24%
$1,304
-27%
$4,720,589
-48%
$1,037,500
-1%
$7,350,000
2.1
6.7%
-16%
336
270
29%
28%
-7%
-1%
-18%
-2%
-0.4
-50%
88
$302,756,000
$991
$3,440,409
$540,000
$7,300,000
8.8%
283
N ote: the "peak" of 2008 was a peak in dollar volume only--transactions had begun declining 2 years earlier.
4
A Story of Downtown Reinvention
W
hile many segments of the local market were quiet for some
years coming out of the economic downturn, construction in
Aspen’s commercial core picked up significantly, starting in
2011. Now, after nearly three full years of increasing activity, downtown
Aspen is in the midst of a full-fledged reinvention.
In 2011, with $100 million worth of construction activity in the first six
months, eight redevelopment projects were happening on Spring Street
alone, as the boundaries of Aspen’s core began to stretch eastward. The
culmination of that activity is the new Shigeru Ban-designed Aspen Art
Museum — which made the New York Times list of 52 places to go in
2014 and serves as an anchor point for a new downtown aesthetic.
The next year, 2012, saw several downtown projects completed, including
a brand-new 4-story building on Cooper Avenue that set the tone for
mixed-use buildings to come: street-level retail, second-floor office, and
luxury penthouses on top.
Last year, saw a flurry of activity as building permit values rose to over
$200 million, and construction took over several downtown corners. Some
of those projects — the Aspen One Building (the former Gap store), with
its classy high-ceilinged retail spaces, and the mixed-use Muse Building,
which sits on the site of a former parking lot that was adjacent to the old
Wienerstube restaurant — have come to fruition this year.
All this activity represents a confidence and long-term investment in
Aspen that bodes very well for the future. But it’s not done yet, not
by a long shot. The first half of 2014 saw over $124 million worth of
construction activity in Aspen — and many projects (see next page) have
yet to break ground, promising that this story of reinvention will continue
well beyond 2015.
Key to this continuing development are two relatively new storylines:
Mark Hunt, and the City of Aspen’s Lodge Incentive Program. Hunt, a
prominent Chicago developer who has moved his family to Aspen, and his
investors have purchased over a dozen downtown buildings since 2010,
totaling close to $100 million. Only two have seen wholesale changes so
far: the Aspen One Building and The Hotel Jerome, which underwent a
top-to-bottom interior renovation in 2013. But if the level of investment
and pride in quality in those two buildings are any indication, Aspen has a
good partner in Hunt, who is reportedly eyeing thoughtful changes for the
Main Street Conoco, the Buckhorn Arms (Domino’s Pizza) Building, and
the Bidwell Building (across from Paradise Bakery), while perhaps leaving
others (such as the New York Pizza building) relatively untouched.
Meanwhile, Aspen City Council is working on a set of potential code changes
designed to encourage the renovation of small and mid-size lodging
properties and otherwise incentivize the creation of new short-term beds.
With programs tailored to both traditional lodges and condo complexes, the
City is proposing three graduated packages of incentives — which include
extra height, more guest parking, an expedited approval process, lowered
affordable housing requirements, and more free-market residential, among
others. Whether this complex package of incentives (the ordinance itself is
about 100 pages long) spurs significant lodging redevelopment is anyone’s
guess at this point, but at the very least, there’s widespread recognition that
something needs to be done.
Here, then, on the following pages is a look at the projects that are
reinventing Aspen. Those that are completed or are well underway
represent nearly $100 million worth of construction activity (according
to publicly available building permit files), while those in the pipeline are
worth many millions more.
5
Reinventing Aspen
1
Crandall Building: $2 million | What: Historical designation and
renovation of the Tom Benton-designed Crandall Building, including
condominiumized tenant spaces and a third-story penthouse.
When: Completed early 2012
2
300 Spring Street: $1.2 million | What: Three-story, 3000 sq ft
building addition on southeast corner of Spring and Hyman. Includes
three office spaces and one employee-housing unit. When: Completed
Summer 2012
3
Spring Building: $2.5 million | What: New three-story, 10,000 sq
ft “green” office building at Spring and Hopkins, including the Spring
Café on the ground floor and a 2500 sq ft penthouse on the third floor.
When: Completed Fall 2012
4
625 Aspen: $8.5 million | What: New three-story, 27,000 sq
ft building at 625 E. Main Street. Includes 6700 sq ft of leasable
space on first floor– currently occupied by Aspen Design Room (an
interior design firm and showroom), a real estate company, and
a UPS Store – plus second-floor offices, two employee-housing
units, and three free-market condos ranging from 2800 to 3100
sq ft that have all closed in the last year for over $2500/sq ft.
When: Completed Fall 2012
5
508 E. Cooper: $3.5 million | What: New four-story building in
heart of downtown. Includes street-level retail which is occupied by
Italian fine clothier Brunello Cucinelli, a basement restaurant, and a
4500 sq ft penthouse on third and fourth floors. When: Completed
late 2012
6
7
Hotel Jerome: $10.25 million | What: Comprehensive interior
renovation including guest room remodels, new banquet room, retail
shop, and spa. When: Completed December 2012
Walton/Berg Home: $650,000 | What: Unique downtown
single-family home project, incorporating historical renovation
of Victorian cottage and new, two-story modern building into a
6500 sq ft residential compound. At corner of Spring and Hopkins.
When: Completed early 2014
8
Aspen One: $4 million | What: Replacement of the one-story
“Gap” building with a two-story, 21,500 sq ft building containing
multiple streetfront retail spaces and a large second-floor restaurant.
Tenants include Dolce & Gabbana, Theory, and Lululemon When:
Completed Spring 2014
9
Muse Building: $10.25 million | What: Three-story, 15,000 sq ft
building on E. Hyman next to new Art Museum. Includes 3200 sq ft of
ground-floor retail, second-floor offices, and a 5000 sq ft, 4-bedroom
penthouse, recently listed for $20 million. When: Completed
June 2014
10
Aspen Art Museum: $45 million | What: New 30,000 sq ft home
for Aspen Art Museum at the corner of Spring and Hyman, designed
by Shigeru Ban. Includes 12,500 sq ft of galleries, workshop space,
a café, museum shop, and a rooftop public sculpture garden. As a
result of a generous donation, museum admission will always be free.
When: Opened August 9, 2014
6
Hallam
Lake
R
13
6
Paepcke
Park
8
16
Wagner
Park
17
5
15
19
18
Lift 1A Chairlift
Silver Q
Gond
Recently Approved or
Constructed Commercial Buildings
11
Rio Grande
Park
4
3
11 7
8
12
9
1
10 2
1
12
Aspen Core | What: New three-story, 16,000 sq ft building on
the corner of Hyman and Hunter (formerly a parking lot). Includes
5300 sq ft of ground-floor retail, second-floor offices, and two
free-market residences of 2000 and 6900 sq ft. Plan includes the
preservation of Little Annie’s building and a $2 million renovation
of the Tom Benton building. When: Under construction; completion
Summer 2015
13
Jerome Professional Building | What: New three-story,
40,000 sq ft mixed-use building on Mill Street behind the Hotel
Jerome by the same developer as the Spring Building, to include
almost 10,000 sq ft of office space and four 2000 sq ft threebedroom residences. When: Began December 2013; slated for
completion late 2015
14
The Aspen Club | What: The Aspen Club Resort: a comprehensive
wellness facility centered around 20 new fractional townhomes
and condos, to be managed by Auberge Resorts, along with
a $5 million renovation of the Aspen Club athletic facilities.
When: Groundbreaking in 2015; completion in 2017-18
15
Dancing Bear Aspen | What: The long-awaited second building
of a private residence club that is part of the Timbers Resorts
portfolio. Eleven luxury residences will be sold in one-eighth shares,
joining the completed and sold-out nine residences in the first
building. When: Construction to begin late Summer 2014
16
Queen
dola
14
Block 99: $2.8 million | What: Historical renovation of two
Victorian-era cabins (formerly home to Susie’s consignment store
and a hair salon) on E. Hopkins, plus new three-story building on rear
of the 6000 sq ft lot. Finished project to include 4000 sq ft of retail
and a 2500 sq ft residence. When: Completion January 2015
“Zocalito” Building | What: Three-story, mixed-use building,
including a top-floor penthouse, will replace the two-story building
on the Hyman Avenue Mall that currently houses Zocalito restaurant.
When: City approvals secured late 2013
17
Red Onion Annex | What: Redevelopment of a one-story
building to the east of the historic Red Onion building on the
Cooper Avenue Mall. The new building will preserve ground-level
retail and add a two-story residence above. When: City approvals
secured January 2014
18
Lift One Lodge | What: 22 timeshare residences and five condos
in two buildings at historic Lift 1A base area on South Aspen Street.
Plan includes ski museum in old Skier’s Chalet lodge building.
When: Construction may begin Spring 2015; vesting period ends
November 2016
19
One Aspen Townhomes | What: 14 contemporary threebedroom + den townhomes at the Lift 1A base of Aspen Mountain,
ranging in size from 4607 sq ft to 5722 sq ft, and in price from
$8.5 to $15 million. When: Construction to begin in 2015; preconstruction reservations being taken. As of publication, half of the
properties had been reserved.
Note: valuations shown indicate the construction values that developers entered on their building permit applications, and not the “retail” value of the project. Any
development which does not have a value attached to it is not far enough along in architectural and construction planning to have its primary building permit yet submitted.
7
Snowmass Village
Sweet Spots: Single-family Homes under $3,000,000 and
Condominiums under $650,000
S
the vast majority of that decline being in the lower-priced
properties as they continue to be absorbed. The higher the
price, the fewer interested buyers there are, although luxury
activity over $7.5M is still on par with the last four years, at
about 3 sales per year.
nowmass Village activity has been disappointing for
some time, averaging 70-90 sales/yr compared to,
on average, 180 sales/yr, pre-recession. In 2013,
stimulated largely by new momentum around the reintroduction
of The Viceroy hotel-condominiums at greatly reduced prices
213
203
18
18 Closed
ClosedYTD
YTD
91
91
We attribute Snowmass not getting even more
meaningful post-recession traction to buyers still
1%
0%
-13%
-3%
0%
-13%
from
from
from
from Jul
Jul 2013:
2013:
fromJul
Jul2013:
2013:
fromJul
Jul2013:
2013:
being drawn to Aspen where prices remain lower
210
18
104
210
18
104
than they were 7-8 years ago, and the price gap
Average
Price:
$1,166,280
AverageSold
Sold
Price:
$1,166,280
Average
$1,819,730
Avg.
Average Asking
AskingPrice:
Price:
$1,812,731
Avg.Asking
AskingPrice
PriceofofPendings:
Pendings: $1,554,722
$1,554,722
Median
Price:
$985,000
MedianSold
Sold
Price:
$985,000
between the two resorts not yet wide enough for
from their 2008 levels, Snowmass nearly doubled its sales purchasers to consider Snowmass a significantly better value.
activity in a year, while increasing the average sales price per However, that gap is rapidly widening now, so we expect some
sq ft by 9%. Even though The Viceroy is not presently fueling purchasers to begin moving back toward Snowmass in
sales so strongly, that increased activity is continuing in greater numbers as the Aspen market shows continued
appreciation in most neighborhoods.
2014 at approximately the same 140 sales/yr pace.
Inventory
Pending
Pending
With regard to single-family home sales, activity is
up nearly 20% thus far in 2014, although 80% of that
interest is still concentrated in the under-$3M price
category. Overall home inventory has dropped here also,
Also of concern is the lack of a compelling story about the future
of Snowmass as a result of the Town and developer still plodding
along in their search for agreement and direction regarding the
completion of Base Village (see related story on page 9).
Number
Dollar Volume
Avg Price/SF
Avg Price
Lowest Price
Highest Price
Avg Days on Market
closed
2014 YTD
change
last 12 mo
change
2008 "peak"
13
$65,652,500
$1,079
$5,050,192
$2,295,000
$7,495,000
6
$16,560,000
$736
$2,760,000
$1,899,000
$4,500,000
7.7%
188
20%
28%
10%
7%
-10%
49%
-1.6
-58%
7
$18,791,000
$692
$2,684,429
$1,899,000
$4,500,000
9.3%
235
-22%
-57%
-43%
-45%
-34%
-38%
0.4
35%
9
$43,608,000
$1,221
$4,845,333
$2,858,000
$7,275,000
8.9%
175
2014 YTD
change
last 12 mo
change
2008 "peak"
12
$18,198,000
$528
$1,516,500
$785,000
$2,800,000
8.6%
245
9%
-21%
-14%
-28%
19%
-38%
-1.4
-11%
20
$30,630,500
$522
$1,531,525
$785,000
$2,800,000
10.0%
317
-5%
-56%
-44%
-54%
-32%
-49%
6.1
65%
21
$69,985,000
$936
$3,332,619
$1,150,000
$5,495,000
4.0%
192
484
inventory
at 07/31/2014
Number
32
Dollar Volume
$103,977,000
Avg Price/SF
$804
Avg Price
$1,812,731
$79,000
Lowest Price
$7,495,000
Highest Price
368
Avg Days on Market
closed
ski-accessible condos
inventory
at 07/31/2014
inventory
closed
at 07/31/2014
2014 YTD
change
last 12 mo
change
2008 "peak"
113
$134,118,699
$805
$1,186,891
$79,000
$5,000,000
48
$42,006,755
$679
$875,141
$71,000
$3,750,000
8.6%
320
-14%
16%
-10%
35%
-61%
14%
0.5
78%
70
$56,448,155
$673
$806,402
$71,000
$3,750,000
8.1%
321
13%
-26%
-38%
-35%
-51%
-27%
6.8
-58%
62
$76,458,352
$1,088
$1,233,199
$144,000
$5,150,000
1.3%
763
at 07/31/2014
2014 YTD
change
last 12 mo
change
2008 "peak"
37
$35,498,550
$630
$959,420
$349,500
$3,995,000
17
$16,550,750
$595
$973,574
$392,500
$1,795,000
5.9%
330
-26%
-17%
13%
12%
23%
-36%
-1.5
11%
33
$28,958,950
$559
$877,544
$295,000
$1,795,000
7.4%
289
-18%
-48%
-40%
-37%
-45%
-59%
4.5
-70%
40
$55,845,183
$925
$1,396,130
$532,500
$4,350,000
2.9%
957
370
off-mountain condos
off-mountain homes
ski-accessible homes
All Snowmass Village Residential Activity (except luxury sales)
inventory
370
closed
Note: the "peak" of 2008 was a peak in dollar volume only--transactions had begun declining 2 years earlier.
8
Base Village Completion Taking Shape | Fall 2014
After years of uncertainty over the future of Base Village, Snowmass is engaged
in a process to finalize a plan of action over the next several months.
After years of uncertainty over the future of Base Village, two interested buyers
have stepped forward to propose projects that could see over 150 residential
units built there, while the Town of Snowmass Village is engaged in a political
process to outline the completion of the project.
The Aspen Skiing Company has revived plans to build a Limelight Hotel
Snowmass, with 102 rooms and a public restaurant, bar, and lounge area —
much like its very successful Aspen counterpart. Encompassing two buildings,
The Limelight complex would also include 15 free-market condominiums, 3
employee-housing units, a Four Mountain Sports shop, and a private Snowmass
Mountain Club. The ski company also wants to move forward on plans for 10
luxury Fanny Hill Townhomes (below Woodrun Place and across Wood Road
from The Crestwood), which it hopes to be able to build at about the same time
as The Limelight.
Meanwhile, the Sunrise Company and Oaktree Capital Management, owners
of the Dancing Bear Aspen, have signed a letter of intent to purchase the lot
next door to The Limelight to develop a high-amenity resort complex. Sunrise’s
plans include finishing the two faux-front buildings adjacent to the parking
garage (the former Little Nell building and the Arrival Center) and, along with
one new building, creating a residence club that could include up to 44 wholly
owned and fractional-ownership condos, to be managed similarly to the
Dancing Bear.
Both projects are to be incorporated into a land-use application that Base
Village owner Related Colorado plans to submit to the town by mid-October. This
application is actually an amendment to the original 2004 approvals and would
include any additional plans Related has for the completion of Base Village,
which originally envisioned over 600 residential units and a new retail village.
Construction on Base Village stalled out during the Great Recession after nearly
Master Plan
100 condominiums, almost all pre-sold at record prices, plus a small retail/
restaurant plaza, were completed in 2008. The development went through a
foreclosure process, emerging with essentially the same ownership in 2012,
but its lack of completion and uncertain future has had the effect of slowing
Snowmass Village’s real estate recovery.
Informal talks between the developers, elected officials, and local residents
this past spring got things rolling again. During that community input process,
Related announced that it had secured financing to complete the project, and
residents voiced their desire to see it get done. The recent emergence of two
potential development partners in the Aspen Skiing Company and Sunrise
Company is another positive step forward.
Unfortunately, a looming deadline of development rights has both complicated
the forward progress and reopened the long-simmering community debate over
Base Village.
In early November, vesting rights for the initial, uncompleted phases of Base
Village expire. Related is asking the town to extend that deadline by three to
five years, in exchange for guaranteeing a construction schedule within that
timeframe. Milestones include the completion of a roundabout at Brush Creek
and Wood Roads by summer 2016, the second Viceroy building by the end of
2016, and upper Wood Road and snowmelt system improvements by the end of
2017. The developers still have until the original deadline of November 2024 to
complete the entire project.
And while there’s a general sense of urgency to “get on with it” — to get Base
Village done — Town Council is likely to do everything in its power to hold
Related’s feet to the fire on its perceived responsibilities to the community, and
to receive assurances that would preclude any more delays or surprises with this
essential development project.
2a Existing Capitol Peak Lodge “A”
2b Existing Capitol Peak Lodge “B”
2c Existing Capitol Peak Lodge “C”
3abc Existing Base Camp Bar & Grill
3de Existing Four Mountain Sports
13a Existing Viceroy Hotel
Courtesy of Related Colorado
9
Snowmass Base Village
Ridge Run
Assay Hill Chairlift
The Enclave
Future Development
The Viceroy Hotel
The Viceroy
Phase II
Base Vlg Mtn Club
Origina
Swimm
Future Development
h
Ski Trail Back to
Assay Hill Chairlift
Future Development (Former Little Nell Bldg)
Temporary Arrival Building
fTo Snowmass Center
10
High Alpine
Elk Camp
The Wall
Woodrun
Elk Camp Gondola
ally Approved BV
ming Pools (New
Use TBD)
Woodrun V Townhomes
(Phase III)
Woodrun Place
The Chamonix
The Crestwood
Whole Ownership,
Fractional, Base Village
Mountain Club
Capitol Peak Lodge “B”
Base of
Elk Camp
Gondola
Capitol Peak Lodge “A”
Hayden Lodge,
Village Express Chairlift g
Capitol Peak Lodge “C”
Base Village
Parking Garage
To Village Mall g
Photograph by Jeremy Swanson
11
Basalt
Sweet Spots: Any Property Priced Under $600,000,
Homes in Aspen Junction and Blue Lake, Willits
T
he Basalt market behaves a little differently than its neighboring resort areas, as it has a much
smaller second-home segment and significantly lower underlying land values. Having ridden the
price bubble up even further in 2007-08 than most communities, due to spillover from Aspen
and Snowmass buyers looking for better ”deals,” Basalt owners felt a much greater impact from the
recession, with rising unemployment in the valley hitting them harder, and sales activity plummeting in
2009-10 (an 80% fall) which contributed to deeper price drops than were felt in Aspen and Snowmass.
139
Inventory
28
Pending
49%
87%
from Jul 2013:
from Jul 2013:
93
15
Average Asking Price:
$914,846
Avg. Asking Price of Pendings:
48
Closed YTD
0%
from Jul 2013:
48
$691,014
Average Sold Price:
Median Sold Price:
$599,022
$474,500
However, those same price drops made the Basalt area seem a relative bargain that much sooner, and
activity had jumped to 70% of former levels by 2012, which, combined with continued low inventory,
stabilized prices and began driving them higher. Activity has been suppressed largely by that restricted
inventory and still-cautious buyers through this spring, with mid-range sales ($600K-$2M) especially
lackluster for a while.
No longer. The market has heated up in the last 30 days, which is evident in the 87% increase
in pending contracts above. About 20% of those contracts are mid-range properties, and
one is pushing $3 million.
Still, inventory has grown, and sellers are still bending. It just hasn’t reached the sellers’ market owners
were hoping for this year. It’s no time for sellers to be overconfident in their pricing, unless
their property’s value is under $600,000.
listed
at 07/31/2014
Number
55
Dollar Volume
$31,294,200
AVG Price per SQ FT
$340
$568,985
Avg Price
$220,000
Lowest Price
Highest Price $1,550,000
156
Avg Days on Market
closed
25
$11,000,540
$306
$440,022
$230,000
$1,750,000
2.9%
131
19%
43
25% $16,595,290
18%
$286
5%
$385,937
58%
$137,000
38%
$1,750,000
-1.1
4.0%
-35%
163
listed
change 2008 "peak"
-51%
87
-72% $58,707,808
-40%
$478
-43%
$674,802
-47%
$256,882
54%
$1,137,665
-0.8
4.8%
-74%
633
single family homes
condominiums/townhomes
All Basalt Residential Activity
closed
at 07/31/2014
64
$85,527,400
$416
$1,336,366
$189,000
$5,495,000
23
$18,424,000
$307
$801,043
$361,500
$2,800,000
6.5%
280
199
10%
45
41% $40,871,952
28%
$334
29%
$908,266
72%
$250,000
52%
$3,925,000
-0.2
6.7%
14%
287
change 2008 "peak"
55%
-3%
-48%
-37%
-55%
15%
-0.8
53%
29
$42,041,666
$641
$1,449,713
$560,000
$3,400,000
7.5%
187
N ote: the "peak" of 2008 was a peak in dollar volume only--transactions had begun declining 2 years earlier.
12
The Luxury Market
A
look at the sales graph above illustrates the difficulty in finding something logical about luxury property sales. These
properties sell at the rate of about 25 per year and, pretty consistently, total about $300 million in dollar volume.
With just 4% of the sales, yet 30% of the dollar volume, this is the market that captures nationwide
attention. Multi-million dollar properties are bought for cash at lottery-winning prices. Even our dividing line for the luxury
market, at $7.5 million*, leaves dozens of properties out of the mix whose values would otherwise provide healthy retirement
nest eggs for most Americans. But the truth is, the base value for all real estate is land, and Aspen area land is some of the most
beautiful and rare in the world. Any property worth considering in this category has an underlying land
MO value of several million
dollars, making the
Inventory
Pending
137 Pending
14 Closed YTD
18
$7.5 million cutoff Inventory
-7%
-7%
367%
125.0%
point a reasonable,
fromJul
Jul2013:
2013:
from Jul
Jul 2013:
2013:
from
from
from Jul 2013:
if lofty, barrier. This
147
147
3
8
Average Sold Price:
$12,504,034
market, like the people
AverageAsking
AskingPrice:
Price:
$15,373,533
Avg. Asking
Asking Price
Price of
of Pendings:
Pendings:
$9,752,500
Average
$15,373,533
Avg.
$9,752,500
Median Sold Price:
$10,800,000
who play in it, is simply
not driven very much by conventional market forces. People simply buy homes when they like them and pay what they need
or want to for them. It is the very definition of a highly subjective market.
That said, there are nonetheless some interesting statistics here. At $13.2 million, average prices are approaching
our $14M record levels, even though there is about a 4-year supply of inventory. And we’re seeing the lowest average
discount from asking price in five years. This market certainly isn’t in any trouble.
2013 produced 23 transactions, while generating a record average price per foot of $1750. Since then, this segment has
been growing at a rapid pace, with 33 sales in the last 12 months, and a near-record $436M in dollar volume. The yearto-date figures are even more dramatic when compared with 2013 YTD, with sales for those 7 months up 125% in 2014,
and pending sales up 367%.
(*) Note: Luxury, as we’ve defined it – over $7.5M - is a rarified market which, if not separated out as we do in these
reports, could skew the greater market average sales price by up to 30%. It’s too small a segment to reduce to percentage
changes in activity, and too large a market in volume to include in the rest of the market at large. In Snowmass, one $44M
sale (actual), if included in these statistics, would inflate the avg sales price of 28 Snowmass homes by $1.6M. And, since
it wasn’t a ski-accessible home, it would nearly double the “average price.”
All Luxury Market Activity
inventory
pending
at 07/31/2014
at 07/31/2014
2014 YTD
137
14
Dollar Volume
$2,106,174,000 $136,535,000
$1,845
$1,707
Avg Price/SF
Avg Price
$15,373,533
$9,752,500
Lowest Price
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
Highest Price
$89,999,000
$9,895,357
Avg Ask/Sold
330
234
Avg Days on Market
18
$225,072,617
$1,507
$12,504,034
$7,500,000
$26,000,000
11.4%
403
Number
closed
change
125%
106%
-11%
-9%
0%
-4%
-0.1
-14%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
25
23
25
23
23
$287,592,788 $340,856,900 $344,069,500 $273,663,000 $279,375,000
$1,746
$1,432
$1,356
$1,399
$1,472
$12,504,034 $13,634,276 $13,762,780 $11,898,391 $12,146,739
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
$44,000,000 $41,000,000 $20,750,000 $31,500,000 $43,000,000
11.5%
12.3%
18.9%
17.4%
12.7%
414
391
469
382
320
13
Noteworthy
Perhaps the Best Sign the Market is Back
“People think nothing of buying
$90 worth of Heirloom tomatoes.”
the highest priced SF sale in Pitkin
County, 2014 YTD
(a spec’d 13,000 sq ft estate on 8
acres in McLain Flats)
- Steve Nieslanik, owner of Okagawa Farms,
on the Saturday Farmer’s Market in Aspen,
one of the most successful such markets in the state
125
the percent increase
in luxury market
transactions (over $7.5M)
$26,000,000
Permit valuation in the City of Aspen in 2014 has increased by 71%,
compared to the same time last year: 82 permits valued at $171M
this year, vs 67 permits valued at $100M. According to Chris
Bendon, Community Development Director, the change is due to
an increase in single-family home projects.
- Aspen Daily News, 7/22/14
Sorry. No Chinese billionaire or Russian oligarch is going to show up to save the day.
While many purchases are buried in untraceable LLCs, international buyers account for less than 5% of Pitkin County sales.
Colorado residents account for 50%+ of the sales in Pitkin County.
Except for the occasional foreigner, most likely from Australia, the rest come primarily from these states:
Texas, California, New York, Florida, and Illinois.
- Land Title Guarantee, 2013 and 2014
28%
less inventory available today,
compared to the peak in
August 2010,
and
5%
less to sell than we had
one year ago
14
8%
$1629
50%
9%
the sales discount off of list
price, the lowest it’s been in
5 years
the number pending transactions
are ahead of last year at this time
average luxury price per sq ft –
80% of its 2007 all-time high
of $1934
the amount avg
prices per sq ft
have risen in last
year (notable exception: Snowmass
SF homes, where buyers are still
negotiating serious discounts)
Single Family Home Activity by Neighborhood
MA R K E T S TR E NG TH
NO TA B L E
SINGLE FAMILY
ACTIVITY
BY| NEIGHBORHOOD
Aspen • HOME
Snowmass
• Basalt
July 31, 2014
A S PE N S NO WMA S S B A S A L T
J uly 31, 2014
2014
listed pending
LUXURY MARKET (homes over $7.5M)
Avg Price/SF
Avg Price - Listed/Sold
Avg Days on Market
EAST ASPEN/SMUGGLER
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
CENTRAL CORE
COOL
RED MOUNTAIN (incl luxury-50% of market)
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
WEST END
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
WEST ASPEN
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
MCLAIN FLATS/STARWOOD (lux.=50%)
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
SNOWMASS VILLAGE - Ski Accessible
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
SNOWMASS VILLAGE - Off Mountain
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
HOT
106
8
$1,688
$15,100,368
$1,645
$10,504,375
16
129%
7
19
25
25
21
22
27
$1,477
-7%
$1,582
$1,432
$1,432
$1,356
$1,375
$1,472
$1,616
$12,348,289 -15% $14,557,143 $14,197,000 $13,634,276 $13,762,780 $11,936,333 $12,357,955 $11,348,897
10.8%
-0.3
14.9%
13.4%
12.3%
18.9%
17.6%
13.0%
5.5%
322
247
393
-25%
525
493
391
469
391
328
215
Note: Neighborhoods below include luxury when it is a significant portion of that market
COOL
HOT
24
2
6
-14%
7
20
17
21
13
10
21
$1,114
$4,165,417
$1,033
$5,145,000
18%
285
319
$967
$2,468,250
4.8%
182
$820
$3,494,662
12.1%
326
$862
$3,046,832
9.4%
266
$910
$3,324,235
14.6%
398
$953
$3,971,190
8.5%
291
$853
$4,378,846
10.4%
438
$1,024
$4,180,005
17.0%
381
$1,247
$4,908,843
6.5%
522
6
3
7
133%
3
5
9
6
7
4
3
$1,578
$4,865,500
$1,338
$3,541,333
-20%
268
195
$1,123
$3,681,643
6.0%
272
$1,397
$3,325,000
12.4%
377
$1,383
$3,380,000
11.7%
309
$1,103
$3,845,128
6.7%
452
$1,219
$3,475,000
11.8%
306
$1,419
$4,168,571
10.8%
324
$1,152
$2,762,178
7.5%
87
$1,495
$5,038,333
11.1%
174
21
1
6
-25%
8
14
13
7
7
3
5
$1,842
$14,456,905
$2,567
$24,995,000
-25%
394
272
$1,050
$5,848,333
17.3%
462
$1,409
$7,506,750
11.3%
572
13
6
11
120%
5
11
17
13
22
16
11
$1,357
$4,639,923
$1,305
$3,881,667
-9%
205
438
$1,333
$3,325,364
5.1%
196
$1,467
$4,215,000
4.5%
166
$1,419
$4,764,545
6.3%
197
$1,253
$3,876,362
10.6%
325
$1,131
$4,436,538
8.6%
251
$1,031
$3,985,409
12.6%
454
$1,013
$3,584,938
13.8%
242
$1,443
$5,961,818
4.6%
150
27
6
14
56%
9
23
27
19
17
19
16
$1,043
$4,732,185
$1,184
$4,985,000
12%
277
499
$809
$3,606,786
11.3%
203
$723
$2,128,700
11.6%
427
$891
$3,103,404
10.3%
399
$894
$3,688,963
9.9%
435
$806
$3,693,289
11.8%
332
$762
$3,333,176
9.6%
310
$926
$4,314,474
12.2%
292
$1,157
$3,456,906
7.8%
260
18
1
2
-33%
3
6
8
7
$1,410
$13,299,444
$771
$8,350,000
-10%
347
120
$1,598
$16,000,000
16.5%
366
$1,779
$4,255,833
14.9%
1000
13
1
6
20%
5
6
8
9
11
1
9
$1,079
$5,050,192
$1,029
$5,950,000
$736
$2,760,000
7.7%
188
10%
$670
$2,583,000
15.6%
444
$630
$2,524,333
16.2%
457
$856
$4,069,563
16.7%
410
$925
$3,936,111
12.2%
297
$917
$4,342,714
12.4%
310
$686
$2,800,000
6.5%
98
$1,221
$4,845,333
8.9%
175
COOL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
12 mo
2014 YTD chg 2013 YTD
-29%
-7.3
-44%
HOT
COOL
-6.5
-28%
HOT
COOL
-22%
6.0
-19%
$1,546
$1,080
$1,343
$1,529
$1,721
$1,674
$7,760,464 $11,025,000 $8,425,000 $10,130,429 $20,666,667 $12,377,568
11.9%
11.7%
10.0%
19.7%
12.3%
5.3%
536
346
571
341
276
331
HOT
COOL
-21%
0.5
19%
HOT
COOL
69%
-0.3
-52%
HOT
COOL
484
11%
276%
1.6
-63%
$1,180
$817
$824
$3,640,417 $10,965,625 $7,101,714
10.6%
7.7%
13.6%
819
450
475
8
2
2
$1,076
$9,100,000
9.3%
255
$1,191
$2,600,000
12.5%
198
$1,923
$5,933,500
4.4%
162
HOT
226
COOL
7%
-7.9
-58%
HOT
32
7
12
9%
11
19
14
12
12
10
21
$804
$1,812,731
$631
$1,554,722
-14%
368
242
$528
$1,516,500
8.6%
245
$615
$2,100,727
5.3%
276
$572
$1,870,553
8.2%
339
$518
$1,706,329
9.6%
515
$580
$2,105,833
9.9%
327
$655
$2,418,750
14.1%
209
$582
$1,857,500
18.3%
253
$936
$3,332,619
4.0%
192
-28%
3.3
-11%
Continued on following page
15
Single Family Home Activity by Neighborhood
SINGLE Aspen
FAMILY
ACTIVITY
BY| NEIGHBORHOOD
• HOME
Snowmass
• Basalt
July 31, 2014
MAR K E T S TR E NG TH
NO TA B L E
WOODY CREEK/OLD SNOWMASS
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
THE DIVIDE
J uly 31, 2014
2014
listed pending
COOL
FOX RUN/HORSE RANCH
MELTON RANCH/WILDRIDGE
5
10
11%
9
14
13
18
12
10
8
$1,126
$1,385,000
76%
312
307
$628
$1,929,300
4.2%
470
$357
$1,208,033
9.2%
415
$371
$1,119,707
7.8%
364
$591
$2,670,010
14.8%
511
$369
$1,577,500
12.8%
540
$498
$2,084,208
16.2%
338
$571
$1,610,086
11.9%
219
$553
$1,905,625
5.4%
184
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
$1,400
$7,863,333
$0
412
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$925
$4,750,000
20.2%
362
0
1
0%
1
2
3
3
5
2
4
$618
$1,500,000
9.1%
440
-31%
$889
$3,415,000
2.3%
40
$751
$2,701,250
7.8%
276
$559
$2,249,167
8.3%
363
$741
$3,308,333
9.6%
111
$759
$2,870,000
13.0%
272
$633
$2,400,000
15.6%
108
$895
$4,392,576
10.3%
176
COOL
PINES/TWO CREEKS
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
RIDGE RUN
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
WOOD RUN
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
BASALT IN-TOWN
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
EL JEBEL
BASALT AREA RURAL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
16
-5.0
13%
$1,727
$2,105
$9,500,000 $11,800,000
13.4%
0.0%
331
9
HOT
5
$808
$3,828,000
350
COOL
-56%
6.8
1000%
HOT
7
2
5
67%
3
6
7
5
2
3
6
$730
$2,474,143
$696
$1,875,000
16%
64
49
$558
$1,624,400
8.4%
272
$480
$1,316,667
1.3%
142
$507
$1,383,333
3.1%
200
$489
$1,498,571
10.5%
551
$541
$1,868,000
11.6%
547
$460
$1,275,000
7.8%
81
$448
$1,483,333
22.0%
231
$780
$2,247,000
6.9%
304
13
2
2
0
2
5
4
5
4
5
$1,524
$8,682,077
$1,422
$7,950,000
389
312
$516
$1,603,500
9.4%
465
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$1,356
$8,865,250
8.4%
841
$1,089
$6,823,680
16.5%
368
$1,382
$9,337,500
14.2%
243
$1,408
$7,880,000
13.4%
271
15
3
3
-25%
4
8
5
6
7
5
3
$892
$3,963,167
$593
$1,821,667
-13%
332
430
$606
$2,220,333
9.7%
297
$695
$2,642,000
10.3%
378
$540
$2,071,750
15.2%
355
$787
$3,190,000
10.3%
601
$717
$2,342,500
10.3%
230
$839
$3,596,857
16.5%
325
$618
$2,105,000
16.7%
271
$1,018
$4,083,333
8.6%
220
12
0
6
50%
4
4
2
4
5
0
9
$1,436
$6,945,833
$0
$0
29%
397
0
$847
$3,774,833
9.1%
210
$657
$2,473,750
15.0%
410
$657
$2,473,750
15.0%
410
$694
$2,175,000
18.4%
168
$907
$3,993,750
12.3%
341
$814
$3,573,370
9.4%
152
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$1,241
$5,039,778
9.1%
170
40
8
11
-21%
14
25
40
43
20
18
21
$377
$1,101,548
$323
$932,500
$266
$641,727
2.7%
163
8%
$247
$595,607
2.4%
261
$328
$704,720
4.6%
269
$302
$816,148
5.7%
200
$274
$691,967
6.5%
227
$284
$685,647
6.9%
237
$394
$1,214,167
5.1%
192
$626
$1,528,889
6.4%
186
COOL
23%
7.1
92%
HOT
COOL
$1,498
$1,898
$10,668,750 $10,960,000
14.2%
5.5%
380
124
HOT
COOL
-16%
-0.6
-21%
HOT
COOL
53%
-5.9
-49%
HOT
153
97
COOL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
60%
HOT
COOL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
HOT
65
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
12 mo
chg 2013 YTD
$709
$2,412,745
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
2014 YTD
8%
0.3
-37%
HOT
7
3
12
-25%
16
33
45
17
6
12
10
$271
$588,714
$217
$616,000
6%
116
102
$242
$441,542
5.1%
110
$229
$502,848
-0.2%
111
$219
$505,574
1.2%
122
$195
$439,934
3.6%
173
$189
$424,849
4.9%
241
$217
$404,567
6.2%
199
$278
$548,792
6.8%
220
$373
$754,225
3.1%
160
29
4
10
233%
3
9
15
12
6
5
5
$446
$1,543,121
$504
$1,368,500
53%
189
248
$354
$1,042,350
11.4%
449
$231
$733,000
19.6%
399
$322
$1,368,111
11.5%
412
$284
$659,252
8.1%
322
$371
$1,151,683
9.4%
255
$443
$1,324,167
13.2%
366
$271
$940,000
15.0%
436
$833
$1,437,000
14.6%
205
COOL
-12%
5.3
-1%
HOT
42%
-8.2
13%
Condominium
ActivityBYbyNEIGHBORHOOD
Neighborhood
CONDOMINIUM ACTIVITY
Aspen • Snowmass
| July 31, 2014
J uly •
31,Basalt
2014
NO TA B L E
2014
listed pending
LUXURY MARKET (condominiums)
COOL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
EAST ASPEN
SMUGGLER
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
CENTRAL CORE
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Ask/Sold Discount %
AVG Days on Market
WEST END
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Days on Market
WEST ASPEN
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Days on Market
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Days on Market
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Days on Market
BASALT IN-TOWN
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Sold Price
AVG Days on Market
EL JEBEL
AVG Price per SQ FT
AVG Sold Price
AVG Days on Market
12 mo
chg
2013 YTD
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
HOT
9
5
2
100%
1
3
0
0
-29%
247
$1,743
$13,750,000
16.5%
484
$2,460
$7,500,000
1.3%
62
$2,544
$7,966,667
3.0%
53
$0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
3
0
2
0%
2
5
3
$953
$1,304,667
$0
$0
9%
1304
0
$882
$2,518,750
6.3%
432
$812
$2,155,500
7.8%
445
$1,688
$1,645
$15,100,368 $10,504,375
322
COOL
Avg Price/SF
Avg Days on Market
2014 YTD
83%
15.3
680%
1
1
2
$1,911
$1,459
$2,346
$10,000,000 $7,500,000 $8,465,100
16.3%
6.2%
13.1%
428
141
942
HOT
COOL
17%
-1.5
-3%
$841
$755
$1,711,762 $975,000
7.8%
7.7%
331
370
14
3
8
14%
7
13
$944
$1,316,333
-1%
232
160
$706
$760,688
6.0%
201
$712
$536,429
7.9%
282
$739
$694,735
7.6%
299
93
17
44
29%
34
$1,389
$1,668,811
$1,395
$1,851,118
N/A
240
$1,276
$1,764,181
6.0%
258
20%
$1,063
$1,277,441
9.3%
360
13
1
4
-50%
8
$1,121
$1,108,000
$1,905
$3,250,000
N/A
21
$1,260
$1,533,750
2.1%
33
78%
$707
$1,095,750
4.8%
254
21
3
5
-17%
6
$734
$2,909,038
$513
$434,667
N/A
508
$717
$3,130,000
7.1%
426
34%
$536
$1,687,000
7.8%
403
113
5
48
-21%
$805
$1,186,891
$718
$1,216,600
-9%
370
364
$679
$875,141
8.6%
320
COOL
2
$994
$835,000
3.0%
138
42%
-1.8
-29%
8
6
4
$658
$826
$926
$621,639 $1,295,000 $1,210,000
8.7%
10.1%
5.8%
366
274
370
3
9
$811
$615,000
9.5%
208
$1,191
$1,405,000
6.4%
138
38%
-3.4
-28%
75
84
74
57
46
49
$1,107
$1,019
$1,138
$1,113
$1,266
$1,589
$1,471,004 $1,505,103 $1,978,912 $1,592,128 $1,726,038 $2,316,882
7.9%
8.1%
11.0%
11.8%
10.2%
8.2%
287
296
334
339
268
298
HOT
COOL
611
2
$1,115
$2,375,000
14.2%
104
HOT
COOL
230
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
HOT
$897
$1,109,000
258
0
$0
$0
0.0%
0
40%
-2.6
-87%
12
9
$729
$817
$1,156,333 $965,833
5.0%
5.2%
249
267
8
10
$708
$906,198
3.0%
254
$705
$993,800
10.9%
297
7
6
5
6
$1,048
$1,303
$1,128,365 $1,271,165
5.6%
7.1%
179
155
HOT
COOL
86%
-0.7
6%
14
6
9
8
$584
$494
$615
$637
$729
$877
$1,804,000 $1,499,167 $2,053,571 $2,650,917 $1,902,389 $3,701,141
7.4%
9.1%
8.8%
17.2%
14.4%
4.7%
318
110
439
249
259
561
HOT
COOL
36%
2.0
78%
61
83
41
38
18
16
62
$743
$721
$640
$695
$760
$791
$1,088
$642,356
$646,086 $812,195 $961,532 $1,131,417 $1,093,556 $1,233,199
6.7%
6.7%
9.3%
11.9%
14.2%
17.1%
1.3%
180The original
228
258condos
NOTE:
NOTE:
sale 217
date
Thefor
original
the majority
sale 270
dateof forthetheBase
majority
Village
of condos
the Base
wasVillage
between
Q4 2007
was between
and195
Q4 Q4
2008.
2007 and 763
Q4 2008.
HOT
37
4
17
-26%
23
39
17
17
12
5
40
$630
$959,420
$473
$1,216,600
13%
370
364
$595
$973,574
5.9%
330
$526
$866,107
6.3%
296
$523
$828,940
7.4%
276
$436
$483,265
8.2%
433
$467
$780,007
10.3%
353
$570
$793,167
12.0%
295
$650
$959,000
12.4%
290
$925
$1,396,130
2.9%
957
COOL
12%
-0.4
11%
HOT
44
10
19
36%
14
23
40
31
24
13
59
$363
$575,370
$390
$435,090
10%
186
169
$311
$467,344
2.9%
127
$282
$434,395
1.3%
157
$286
$377,382
2.0%
150
$242
$363,665
5.1%
201
$247
$368,106
8.2%
236
$301
$417,409
8.4%
214
$333
$471,125
6.5%
242
$501
$615,869
6.8%
704
14
0
6
-14%
7
16
24
17
10
6
28
$248
$547,207
$0
$0
36%
46
0
$290
$353,500
3.2%
144
$213
$392,500
3.1%
290
$218
$359,000
5.9%
281
$194
$255,663
1.5%
163
$198
$302,671
7.6%
224
$265
$464,833
3.8%
105
$339
$445,753
7.0%
253
$430
$798,984
0.6%
484
COOL
8%
1.6
-19%
HOT
-10%
0.1
-50%
17
LandACTIVITY
ActivityBYbyNEIGHBORHOOD
Neighborhood
LAND
NO TA B L E
EAST ASPEN/SMUGGLER
Avg Days on Market
CENTRAL CORE
J uly 31,•2014
Aspen • Snowmass
Basalt | July 31, 2014
2014
listed pending
2014 YTD
COOL
12 mo
chg 2013 YTD
7
1
0
-100%
3
$3,619,143
$2,400,000
820
529
$0
0.0%
0
-100%
-34.4
-100%
$1,416,667
34.4%
403
COOL
0
1
0
0
AVG Days on Market
$0
$1,725,000
0
373
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
2
0
0
0
$6,672,500
$0
159
0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
AVG Days on Market
WEST END
AVG Days on Market
WEST ASPEN
AVG Days on Market
MCLAIN FLATS/STARWOOD
AVG Days on Market
AVG Days on Market
AVG Days on Market
WOODY CREEK/OLD SNOWMASS
AVG Days on Market
BASALT IN-TOWN
AVG Days on Market
BASALT AREA RURAL
AVG Days on Market
EL JEBEL
AVG Days on Market
18
5
8
2
$2,031,100 $2,791,125 $2,500,000
14.5%
23.9%
12.5%
380
464
505
0
$0
0.0%
0
2
2
$1,887,500 $2,877,500
5.5%
9.4%
352
336
HOT
RED MOUNTAIN
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
HOT
COOL
1
1
$2,950,000 $2,400,000
0.0%
10.9%
286
2677
0
$0
0.0%
0
1
1
1
$2,500,000 $1,950,000 $1,000,000
37.4%
0.0%
-25.0%
147
28
163
HOT
COOL
1
3
$5,250,000 $6,055,555
12.4%
12.5%
490
292
0
0
0
0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
2
2
1
HOT
2
2
1
-50%
2
$2,625,000
$3,997,500
330
170
$3,880,000
0.5%
133
73%
-10.7
-83%
$2,240,000
11.2%
787
18
3
4
100%
2
$3,132,639
$4,465,000
424
551
$2,162,750
11.7%
488
-14%
-2.3
-31%
$2,525,000
14.1%
712
COOL
3
2
$2,493,333 $3,000,000 $1,801,750 $2,000,000 $3,300,000
7.5%
13.6%
24.8%
16.5%
5.7%
583
425
278
738
52
0
$0
0.0%
0
HOT
COOL
6
6
3
4
7
2
$2,525,000 $2,446,667 $2,532,333 $4,112,500 $3,108,163 $2,719,643
16.7%
13.6%
13.9%
31.7%
31.9%
14.5%
617
270
814
468
259
552
HOT
4
0
1
-50%
2
$2,886,250
$0
605
0
$1,070,000
28.7%
0
-58%
16.7
-100%
$2,575,000
11.9%
327
10
0
2
0%
2
$3,828,000
$0
880
0
$3,337,500
6.1%
284
95%
-5.5
-83%
$1,712,500
11.5%
1687
8
1
6
200%
2
$1,073,125
$1,295,000
297
50
$1,023,500
7.7%
335
52%
-8.1
-44%
$672,500
15.8%
600
23
0
2
0%
2
$1,440,587
$0
547
0
$632,500
8.7%
636
41%
-12.2
-19%
$450,000
20.8%
785
5
3
2
-50%
4
6
6
2
3
0
0
$403,600
$340,000
151
848
$177,500
11.3%
216
8%
3.5
68%
$163,750
7.8%
129
$169,050
9.5%
188
$197,244
16.9%
351
$175,000
18.6%
595
$196,667
0.4%
313
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
15
2
0
-100%
3
5
4
6
3
1
2
$692,600
$0
442
124
$0
0.0%
0
-100%
-20.5
-100%
$313,667
20.5%
404
$312,200
-4214.5%
316
$923,750
15.8%
295
$311,667
12.6%
268
$352,500
14.8%
274
$375,000
17.8%
287
$442,000
37.0%
135
2
1
3
COOL
2
4
3
4
$2,575,000 $3,631,250 $1,435,000 $2,175,000
11.9%
16.8%
23.3%
15.9%
327
817
302
220
0
1
$0
0.0%
0
$3,750,000
5.1%
271
HOT
COOL
2
2
$1,712,500 $3,925,000
11.5%
7.1%
1687
211
0
1
0
1
$0
0.0%
0
$3,000,000
24.9%
156
$0
0.0%
0
$512,000
900.0%
2019809
5
5
HOT
COOL
8
3
$1,179,375 $2,833,333 $1,035,000 $1,721,000
18.1%
8.2%
7.8%
6.7%
832
153
316
52
0
1
$0
0.0%
0
$1,350,000
1.8%
88
4
3
HOT
COOL
4
6
4
$831,250 $1,231,667 $946,250
23.1%
19.1%
28.6%
452
698
829
1
$1,350,000
12.9%
525
$876,250 $2,213,333
19.6%
6.2%
417
273
HOT
COOL
HOT
COOL
HOT
7
1
1
0%
1
$201,000
$149,000
336
466
$140,000
3.4%
250
65%
-10.7
8%
$85,000
14.1%
232
$147,500 $2,900,000 $102,667
13.1%
24.7%
31.2%
227
560
265
1
0
0
$150,000
40.0%
424
$0
0.0%
0
$0
0.0%
0
i
Our Man festO
Celebrating Our 20th Anniversary
We believe your mother was wrong. The world does revolve around you.
We believe if we can also be gardeners, math geeks and watch guards, our clients can take naps,
vacations and us at our word.
We believe that when trust is there, it’s palpable. And when it’s not, people talk about it a lot.
We believe just hanging out at The Aspen Institute will give you ideas.
We believe that what gets a property sold in real life is the lion-hearted devotion of one broker.
We believe that working collaboratively rather than competitively with each other makes us
smarter, stronger and way less paranoid.
We believe you should give it a rest and let us do the overwhelm.
We believe real estate is in our DNA, or somebody’s putting something in our drinking water.
We eat, sleep and dream it.
We believe a bowl of apples and a new welcome mat should not be called staging. They should be
called a bowl of apples and a new welcome mat.
We believe Aspen is a soul-saving place, or we’d all have left for the beach by now.
We believe matters of money and real estate can be gnarly, overwhelming and complicated.
Luckily, they can also be understood, reasoned with, and put in their place.
We believe wondering if you hired the right broker is a sure sign you didn’t.
We believe – buyer or seller – you should get what you want, be ridiculously well-informed and
feel sinfully indulged the whole way through.
We believe mountains don’t disappear, rivers don’t stop moving, and that there will never
be another Aspen.
We believe that your broker should make you happy.
We believe size matters, which is why we stayed small.
We believe dogs should be included in every activity.
We’ve been serving homemade pie every Friday for 20 years, and we believe you should know this.
BJ ADAMS • GUS KADOTA• MARK LEWIS • KRISTEN MALEY • LEAH MORIARTY • DOUG NEHASIL
BJ AdAms • Amy FeldmAn • GAry FeldmAn • Gus KAdotA • mArK lewis • Kristen mAley • leAh moriArty
NICHOLS
• CASEY• SLOSSBERG
• MICHELLE•SULLIVAN
• MELISSA
TEMPLE
• KAREN temple
TOTH • TARA
TURNERtoth • tArA turner
douG nehAsilLUCY
• lucy
nichols
cAsey slossBerG
michelle
sullivAn
• melissA
• KAren
Aspensnowmassproperties.com • 970.922.2111 • offices in Aspen and snowmass
19
No amount of belief makes something a fact.
-James Randi, magician and skeptic (b. 1928)
We Don’t Do This All By Ourselves.
THIS REPORT …
• uses 6 software programs, to
• group 680 subdivisions and
• sort 7000 records, entered by
• 375 different people, who made
• 1443 entry errors, detected and corrected, so that
• a dozen associates could analyze
• 663 numbers, compiled and organized using
• 81 spreadsheets with 122 pivot tables and
• 225,920 computer formulas!!
©2014 BJ Adams and Company
534 E. Hopkins Avenue • Aspen, CO 81611
CHANGE SERVICE REQUESTED
AspenSnowmassProperties.com
970.922.2111 • [email protected]

summer\fall 2014 • a definitive analysis of aspen

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