Hotel Market Study - Kyle, Texas | Economic Development

Transcription

Market Study and Projected Operating
Performance
for a Proposed
Hotel in Kyle, Texas
Prepared for
City of Kyle
Mr. Scott Sellers
100 West Center Street
Kyle, TX 78640
Prepared by
Stone Hospitality & Real Estate
August 14, 2015
City of Kyle
Attn: Scott Sellers
100 W. Center Street
Kyle, TX 78640
Re: Area Hotel and Lodging Analysis
Dear Mr. Sellers:
At your request, Stone Hospitality & Real Estate has completed a formal report in an effort to assist the
City of Kyle in determining the lodging environment in the area marketplace and what the hotel needs
might be in and in the vicinity of Kyle. As such, the content of this report should only be considered as a
preliminary needs assessment for use in decision making going forward.
This report sets forth to highlight the relevant market information and economic outlook for the market
area surrounding the center point of the City of Kyle. It is expected that this information will be used for
internal decision making at the municipal level. Given the City does not own land for a hotel, it is likely
that an update or site specific study will need to be commissioned if a developer chooses to build on a
particular site in Kyle. At that time, the necessary refinements to the development concept should be
addressed and the market conditions can be updated.
The terms of our engagement are such that we have no obligation to revise this report to reflect events
or conditions subsequent to the date of the report (August 14, 2015). This report is subject to the
Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions included on page 59 below.
While the content and focus of this report is historical data, there are general economic projections
presented. Although they have been conscientiously prepared using information obtained during this
engagement and our experience in the industry, some assumptions inevitably will not materialize, and
unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period
covered by our analyses will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.
This report is intended solely for your information and assistance for the function stated herein, and
should not be relied upon for any other purpose. Neither our report nor any of its contents nor any
reference to the consultants or our firm may be included or quoted in any document, offering circular or
registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, appraisal, loan or other agreement without Stone
Hospitality and Real Estate’s prior written approval of the form and context in which it will appear.
We look forward to hearing from you in the near future and will be available for any clarifying comments
regarding this report. It is our hope to continue assisting you in future endeavors with this and other
developments as they become necessary.
Sincerely,
Jeremy Stone, PhD
Principal
Stone Hospitality and Real Estate
www.stonehre.com • Telephone 832.541.2651
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents .............................................................................................................1
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................2
Market Area Analysis .....................................................................................................6
Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................19
Site Evaluation ..............................................................................................................23
Facility Recommendations ...........................................................................................27
Lodging Market Analysis ..............................................................................................29
Projected Performance – Proposed Hotel ..................................................................46
Projected Average Daily Rate .......................................................................................50
Projected Operating Performance ..............................................................................51
Assumptions & Limiting Conditions ............................................................................60
Certification ..................................................................................................................62
Addenda
Smith Travel Research Data ........................................................................................................... A
Other Market Data ............................................................................................................................. B
Engagement Letter ............................................................................................................................ C
Qualifications ..................................................................................................................................... D
Proposed Kyle Area Hotel – Kyle, Texas
Page |1
Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Jeremy Stone, PhD (Stone Hospitality & Real Estate) was engaged by the City of Kyle, Texas to
evaluate the lodging market and make recommendations for any potential hotel proposed on
a site yet to be determined. In addition to assessing the demand and need for a hotel,
concluding occupancy and average rate projections for any proposed or recommended hotel,
we have also been asked to estimate the projected financial operating performance for the
proposed hotel.
Scope of Work
The data used in this report has been confirmed to the extent possible, unless otherwise
expressly noted. The general information used in this analysis was obtained via local
governmental sources, secondary data contained in Stone Hospitality & Real Estate’s files and
interviews with local and regional real estate professionals. Specific information regarding
the proposed sites was obtained from the City of Kyle. Market data was secured through
interviews with management representatives of the competitive market hotels during our
individual property inspections and through additional discussions with other area
hospitality industry representatives, as well as with officials located at the surrounding
municipalities, and within the county government.
During the preparation of this market study, the following scope of work was undertaken by
Jeremy Stone, PhD:
•
•
•
•
Met with representatives of the client in order to clearly understand their plans
for the study area and inquiry for any lodging related development.
Conducted an inspection of the potential sites and the surrounding developments
in order to assess the suitability of any site for any proposed lodging development,
as well as to assess the area’s competitive advantages and disadvantages.
Analyzed relevant economic trends, general market conditions, and the state of
the specific market factors having a direct impact on hotel demand within the
South Austin market area, including trends related to the area employment,
demographics, and the various attractions and amenities of the specific City of
Kyle market area.
Conducted primary market research consisting of interviews with developers,
franchise representatives, hotel management companies, and local city and
county government officials, economic development offices and chambers of
commerce regarding the potential for area development activity which would
have a direct impact on any proposed hotel’s defined competitive market.
Page |2
Executive Summary
•
•
•
Inspected the competitive lodging properties in the area and conducted
interviews with property management of those respective hotels in order to
assess their degree of competitiveness with any proposed hotel, and to gain
further insight into the supply and demand aspects of the competitive market
area.
Evaluated the operating performance of the proposed hotel’s existing
competitive lodging market over the past several years, and concluded
prospective occupancy and average rate projections for the competitive lodging
market for the next several years, as well as estimates of the prospective
occupancy, average daily room rate (ADR), and resulting rooms revenues
(RevPAR) for the proposed subject hotel for the first five years following the
anticipated opening date of the property (assumed to be January 1, 2017).
Projected a statement of estimated financial operating results for the proposed
subject hotel during its first ten years of operation based on the occupancy and
ADR levels concluded.
CONCLUSIONS
Based on the research and analyses completed in conjunction with this market study,
together with our assessment of a proposed hotel’s competitive market position within the
defined competitive lodging market, the key highlights of our analysis, and our conclusions,
are summarized as follows:
•
•
•
•
The Great Recession, which officially ranged from December 2007 through June
2009, resulted in more than 8 million jobs being lost across the country, of which the
country has only just recovered most those lost jobs. Texas, along with Oklahoma,
has recovered more quickly than the rest of the nation.
The Austin region’s economic growth suffered some setbacks in employment during
the recession, and more recently in 2011 and 2012, in the goods producing sectors.
There was also a solid recovery in 2013 and 2014 which has resulted in one of the
top economies in the country. A measured growth in population and households
(similar to that of 2010 - 2014) is expected over the next few years along with
continuing improvements in job growth.
The proposed City of Kyle hotel’s current market area is defined as a relatively large
area from the south side of Austin to the north side of San Marcos. The expected size
of the new facility will likely place the City in a position to attract and facilitate
business from anywhere in the market.
The neighborhood is considered to be supportive for the proposed subject hotel’s
development considering the existing business climate.
Page |3
Executive Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The eventual subject site should contain both the good accessibility of the site, and
the excellent visibility within the Kyle area.
A hotel located in the subject site area will require a comfortably recognized brand in
order to appeal to widespread visitors.
We believe there are several options available in regards to brand, but expect any
hotel would be positioned as an upper upscale, full-service property. The property’s
affiliation and design/quality characteristics should enhance the proposed hotel’s
competitive position within the extended market area to the north and the south.
Based on our review of the area, we have identified seventeen hotels containing
1,979 rooms as the proposed hotel’s initial primary competition. These hotels
currently represent the majority of midscale, limited-service properties within ten
miles of the proposed hotel site and are all chain-affiliated properties with
recognized brands, and selected upscale select-service and full-service properties
from Kyle to the edges of surrounding market areas. These properties were included
in the competitive supply based on their location, facilities, brands, markets served
and/or average daily rates. The degree of competition offered by each of these
factors varies by property and market segment.
The properties included in the subject’s defined Competitive Set finished 2014 with
an occupancy of 76.2% and an ADR of $127.48. This represented a 5.6% increase in
demand for the Competitive Set over 2013, which was combined with an ADR
increase of 3.6% for a RevPAR increase of 9.4% for the year, compared to a RevPAR
increase of 7.3% in 2013 and 12.3% increase in 2012. Demand growth for the
Competitive Set should remain solid in 2015 and slow considerably in 2016 due to
the additions to supply expected in the subject’s market area.
We fully expect economy and select-service hotel development to occur in the Kyle
area over the next few years. This study has identified the potential for a full-service
hotel with a complement of meeting space as the type of lodging development that
will create the best impact and statement for the City of Kyle.
In 2017 through 2020 we allowed for some shock resulting from new limited-service
supply entering the market and being absorbed along with the subject. This is
shown with growth rates of 3.5%, 2.0% and 0.0% in 2017, 2018 and 2019,
respectively.
The following table includes our estimate of a proposed Upper Upscale full-service
hotel’s potential demand segmentation upon the attainment of stabilization
operations.
Page |4
Executive Summary
City of Kyle - Proposed Hotel
2019 Mix of Demand and Market Penetration
Occupied Room
Market Segment
Ratio Penetration
Nights
Corporate
23,000
65%
90%
Leisure
6,300
Group
6,200
Total
•
Year
35,500
Source: Stone HRE
18%
95%
17%
95%
100%
92%
Based on the projected operating results concluded for the proposed subject hotel, as
noted above, we have concluded the following estimates of operating cash flows.
Projected Operating Performance
Proposed Full-Service Hotel in Kyle, Texas
Occupied
Room Nights Occupancy
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
30,110
ADR
RevPAR
Rooms
Revenue
Total
Revenues
NOI After
Reserves
% Total
Revenues
55%
$140.50
$77.28
$4,230,000
$5,580,000
$1,324,000
24%
65%
$144.75
$94.09
$5,152,000
$6,844,000
$1,791,000
26%
32,850
60%
36,140
66%
35,590
36,680
67%
$142.50
$146.25
$147.50
$85.50
$96.53
$98.83
Note: Assumed opening of January 1, 2017. Some figures have been rounded.
Source: Stone HRE
$4,681,000
$5,285,000
$5,410,000
$6,197,000
$7,054,000
$7,259,000
$1,556,000
$1,813,000
$1,846,000
25%
26%
25%
ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
This market study report is subject to general limiting conditions as well as the general and
specific assumptions stated in this report. Your attention is also directed to the list of general
and specific limiting conditions and assumptions found at the end of this report, as they are
an integral part of the process.
It is important to note that the timing of this project is such that the market conditions in
this report will require updating prior to the beginning of any hotel development. It is our
recommendation that the update be based upon a specific site development plan with more
details as to the facility program after design and the specific brand, amenities, and
configuration determined by the developer.
Page |5
Market Area Analysis
MARKET AREA ANALYSIS
The relative success of a hotel is influenced by the interaction of various basic forces
including government, social trends and economic conditions. The purpose of this chapter is
to identify factual data regarding these forces within the market area and to analyze their
impacts on real property performance levels - in particular, that of the proposed/potential
hotel property. Primary sources of data include the ESRI, the U.S. Bureau of Census, U.S.
Bureau of Labor, area Chambers of Commerce, area city and county governments, and others,
as noted.
Page |6
Overview
The City of Kyle and more specifically the potential site for a hotel (proposed hotel) are
located in Hays County. The Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA, with a 2010 census population of
1,716,289, is the 35th largest metropolitan area in the nation and the 4th largest in the state.
Kyle was established on July 24th, 1880 with 200 acres deeded by David Moore and Fergus
Kyle in anticipation of an International and Great Northern Railroad that had been
announced. The population exceeded 500 by 1882 before declining. The city was
incorporated in 1928. Present day Kyle has grown substantially to include 19.3 square miles
of land area, and is within close proximity of the City of Austin. The proposed hotel’s
immediate vicinity is generally located in the City of Kyle.
DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND EMPLOYMENT PROFILES
The following table illustrates the recent population and household figures for the State of
Texas, the Austin-Round Rock MSA, Hays County, TX, and the City of Kyle, from 2010 to 2014,
together with the respective five-year forecast for each area.
Market Profile
2010, 2014, 2019
Compounded Annual %
Change
State of Texas
Population
Households
Median HH Income
Median Age
2010
Hays
Population
Households
Median HH Income
Median Age
Kyle, TX
Population
Households
Median HH Income
Median Age
2019
25,145,561
8,922,933
$51,960
33.7
26,956,958
9,191,344
$53,847
33.8
27,043,215
9,907,964
$55,394
34.2
157,107
55,245
$55,400
30.4
176,780
90,504
$59,549
31.0
198,228
102,918
$61,071
31.6
Austin-Round Rock MSA
Population
Households
Median HH Income
Median Age
2014
1,716,289
665,228
$55,744
32.6
28,016
8,704
$67,779
29
Source: US Census Bureau, ESRI, and Stone HRE
1,926,998
700,486
$63,419
32.9
33,050
10,193
$77,201
29
2,250,225
803,652
$65,322
33.8
40,578
12,503
$83,466
30
2010-2014
2014-2019
1.8%
0.7%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
2.9%
1.3%
3.3%
0.2%
3.1%
2.8%
0.6%
0.5%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
0.2%
4.2%
4.2%
1.6%
0.7%
3.0%
13.1%
1.8%
0.5%
2.3%
2.6%
0.5%
0.4%
The following highlights some of the data presented in the table on the previous page.
Page |7
•
•
•
The population growth rates of Hays County have historically outpaced the overall
growth for the MSA, while the City of Kyle population growth rate has surpassed both
the county and MSA growth trends.
Projected increases in population are generally projected to be equal or slightly
above those of recent historic growth figures for all areas.
From 2014 to 2019, these general trends are expected to be positive for all
geographic areas.
Employment and Economic Base
The following table depicts the total non-farm employment for the Austin-Round Rock, TX
MSA between 2010 and 2014 and year-to-date June.
Non-agricultural Industry Trends
Austin-Round Rock MSA
C.A.G.
Industry Employment Level
Non-Farm Employment
Industry: Goods Producing
Industry: Service-Providing
Total Non-Farm Employment
Employment Growth
Select Non agricultural Industries
Industry: Mining, Logging, and Construction
Industry: Mining, Logging, and Construction
Industry: Manufacturing
Industry: Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Industry: Information
Industry: Financial Activities
Industry: Professional and Business Services
Industry: Education and Health Services
Industry: Leisure and Hospitality
Industry: Other Services
Industry: Government
Total Select Non-Farm Employment
Note: C.A.G. stands for compounded annual growth rate
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jun
2014
80.7
503.7
584.4
71.8
496.3
568.1
70.5
496.4
566.9
75.7
504.4
580.1
80.9
512.5
593.4
108.9
810.7
919.6
108.9
841.1
950.0
-1.7%
-0.2%
-0.4%
7.4%
1.6%
2.3%
6.9%
1.6%
2.3%
0.0%
3.7%
3.3%
14.3
14.3
31.0
97.2
9.6
32.8
71.4
83.2
57.6
22.7
122.0
556.1
17.0
17.0
32.9
100.0
9.0
32.6
74.0
84.4
60.0
22.7
121.7
571.3
19.6
19.6
35.0
102.5
8.9
33.4
75.0
86.0
61.8
22.7
122.3
586.8
50.7
50.7
58.2
157.2
24.9
52.5
150.1
106.1
109.3
40.3
170.3
970.3
51.5
51.5
57.4
161.6
26.0
53.9
157.7
112.6
115.6
41.5
172.2
1,001.5
-1.4%
-1.4%
-2.2%
-0.4%
-3.0%
-0.5%
-0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.6%
0.4%
-0.4%
18.9%
18.9%
6.1%
2.9%
-6.3%
-0.6%
3.6%
1.4%
4.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
2.7%
15.3%
15.3%
6.4%
2.5%
-1.1%
2.5%
1.4%
1.9%
3.0%
0.0%
0.5%
2.7%
1.6%
1.6%
-1.4%
2.8%
4.4%
2.7%
5.1%
6.1%
5.8%
3.0%
1.1%
3.2%
1.3%
16.0
16.0
37.0
100.7
12.2
34.2
75.1
82.2
57.1
23.9
118.5
572.9
-2.8%
13.5
13.5
32.5
97.5
11.1
33.2
69.9
82.9
57.6
23.3
120.8
555.8
-0.2%
2.3%
2.3%
N/A
Jun
2015
20102012
20122013
20132014
Jun 2014Jun 2015
3.3%
Source: US Department of Labor and Stone HRE
As shown in the preceding table, total non-farm employment decreased at a compound
annual rate of -2.8% from 2010 to 2011. Due to the waning recession, the area suffered a 1.7% decline in employment during 2010 to 2012, with relatively minor declines in most
employment sectors; with exceptions being in the Education and Health Services, Leisure
and Hospitality, and the Government job sectors. In 2012, the market area’s employment
was essentially flat, decreasing by -0.2%. By 2013, job growth for several industry sectors
turned positive, and total non-farm employment increased moderately, rising 2.3% for the
year. The year-end December 2014 employment data indicated a continuation in job
creation for the MSA, being up 2.3% in both 2013 and 2014. Also the year to date June is up
3.3%.
Page |8
The recovery has been uneven across the various sectors of the economy, and job growth in
2015 is expected to be similarly sporadic. Employment levels in most industry sectors now
exceed their pre-recession peaks and are expected to continue to grow in 2015.
Other sectors, such as construction and manufacturing, began to improve in 2013, with
construction and real estate showing signs of significant improvement in 2013. The
information sector, which has lost jobs for more than a decade, is expected to continue to
decline.
Unemployment Rates
The following table references the National Unemployment Rate.
National Unemployment Rate
Year
2005
January
5.7
February
5.8
March
5.4
April
4.9
May
4.9
June
5.2
July
5.2
August
4.9
September
4.8
October
4.6
November
4.8
December
4.6
Annual
5.1
2008
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.8
5.2
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.5
7.1
5.8
2006
2007
2009
5.1
5.0
8.5
5.1
4.9
8.9
4.8
4.5
9.0
2010
10.6
10.4
10.2
2013
8.5
8.1
7.6
2011
2012
2014
2015
9.8
8.8
7.0
6.1
9.5
8.7
7.0
5.8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
9.2
8.4
6.8
5.6
4.5
4.3
8.6
9.5
8.7
7.7
7.1
5.9
5.1
4.4
4.3
9.1
9.3
8.7
7.9
7.3
6.1
5.3
4.8
4.7
9.7
9.6
9.3
8.4
7.8
6.3
5.5
5.0
4.9
9.7
9.7
9.3
8.6
7.7
6.5
4.6
4.6
9.6
9.5
9.1
8.2
7.3
6.3
4.4
4.5
9.5
9.2
8.8
7.6
7.0
5.7
4.1
4.4
9.5
9.0
8.5
7.5
7.0
5.5
4.3
4.5
9.4
9.3
8.2
7.4
6.6
5.5
4.3
4.8
9.7
9.1
8.3
7.6
6.5
5.4
4.6
4.6
9.3
9.6
9.0
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.6
Historically, the unemployment rate for the MSA ranged between 60 and 80 basis points
below that of the state. From 2005 to 2008, this spread remained, as the unemployment
rates for the MSA and the state both dropped to levels just over 4.0%, representing historic
lows for both areas. As the economy fell into recession in 2009, the unemployment rate
spread increased beyond the historical 60 to 80 basis point spread and remained there
through 2014. As of June 2015, the unemployment rates for both areas have decreased
significantly over the previous year, and the spread remains.
As shown in the following tables, unemployment rates increased significantly in 2009, both
for the MSA and the state, as the recession took hold. The unemployment rates for both areas
again increased during 2010, but then declined in 2011. By June 2015, the MSA and state
demonstrated continued employment growth at paces far exceeding labor force increases,
and thus significantly improved unemployment rate levels. As of June 2015, the AustinRound Rock MSA's unemployment rate was the lowest unemployment rates nationally.
Page |9
Texas Employment
Year
2005
Labor force
11,124,240
Employment
10,523,257
2008
11,664,390
11,104,115
2011
12,495,726
11,527,028
2006
2007
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
Jun 2014
Jun 2015
11,327,995
11,431,631
11,910,799
12,241,970
12,678,890
12,904,629
13,111,548
13,162,061
13,097,438
10,774,490
10,941,413
% Change in
Employment
N/A
Unemployment
600,983
Unemployment
Rate
5.4
1.5%
560,275
4.8
2.5%
968,698
2.4%
1.5%
11,008,903
-0.9%
11,827,485
2.6%
11,244,632
12,104,092
12,447,551
12,447,300
12,517,239
2.1%
2.3%
2.8%
N/A
0.6%
553,505
490,218
901,896
997,338
851,405
800,537
663,997
714,761
580,199
4.9
4.3
7.6
8.1
7.8
6.7
6.2
5.1
5.4
4.4
Austin-Round Rock MSA Employment
2005
Labor force
798,312
Employment
761,992
% Change in
Employment
N/A
Unemployment
36,320
Unemployment
Rate
4.5
2008
864,769
827,538
1.8%
37,231
4.3
Year
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jun 2014
Jun 2015
823,330
844,059
789,403
813,256
886,295
930,550
988,355
1,023,307
1,050,972
1,055,174
1,057,979
825,071
-0.3%
932,281
3.9%
865,461
960,097
N/A
3.0%
896,863
4.9%
3.6%
33,927
30,803
61,224
65,089
63,234
56,074
4.1
3.6
6.9
7.0
6.6
5.7
970,727
4.1%
52,580
5.1
1,008,660
N/A
46,514
4.4
1,007,352
1,022,626
3.8%
1.4%
43,620
35,353
4.2
3.3
The MSA's employment picture remains favorable when compared to the national job
market. Peaking at 10.6% in 2010, the national unemployment rate remains well above the
MSA and state unemployment rates, but is also improving in the most recent years and
months. As of June 2015, the national unemployment rate is recorded at 5.5%, down from
6.3% in June 2014. The most recent unemployment trends are considered a positive factor
for the long-term recovery efforts of the national economy and the local Kyle and AustinRound Rock MSA economies.
P a g e | 10
Major Employers
The only Fortune 500 company headquartered in Austin is Whole Foods Market at number
214. The following tables show the leading industries in Austin and the major employers for
the City of Kyle.
Leading Industries
Austin, Texas
Sector
State & Local Government
Full-Service Restaurants
Limited-Service Eating Places
Prof. & Comm. Equipment & Suppliers, Merchandisers, Wholesalers
General Medical & Surgical Hospitals
Grocery Stores
Employment Services
Computer Systems Design and Related Services
Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services
Offices of Physicians
Semiconductor & Other Electrical Component Manufacturing
Building Equipment Contractors
Federal Government
Services to Buildings and Dwellings
Other General Merchadise Stores
* Number of Employees is estimated
High-Tech Employment
As a % of total employment
Employees
(000's)*
154.8
32.5
27.1
20.3
16.8
14.9
13.8
13.8
13.2
12.1
12.0
11.9
11.7
10.5
8.5
61.2
7.9
Source: Moody's Analytics and U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Austin area has several large employers including the State of Texas government. Other
major employers that may not be listed in the table above that have a presence in the Austin
Metro Area are Dell, Advanced Micro Devices, IBM Corporation, Freescale Semiconductor,
and Samsung Austin Semiconductor.
P a g e | 11
Kyle Major Employers
Company
Hays County Seton Medical Center
HEB Plus
Lowes
Home Depot
Target
Austin Community College Hays County
Kohl's
Construction Metal Products
RSI Incorpration
Southwestern Pneumatic
Steel Industries
* Number of Employees is estimated
Employees*
600
415
110
100
80
80
70
55
45
40
30
Source: Kyle Economic Development - 2015
TRANSPORTATION
The City of Kyle’s proximity to Austin and its central location carries with it the connection
throughout the United States by several modes of transportation including automobiles,
trains, and airplanes. The expectation of utilizing this capacity for distribution is one of
success in the Greater Austin area.
Roads and Highways
The City of Kyle is centrally located in the continental United States, convenient to many areas
of the country. Major interstate roadways, an international airport, and regional airports
allow for convenient access to the regions from all areas of the United States and beyond.
Major roadways providing access to the region are I-35, U.S. 290, U.S. 183, S.H. 71, S.H. 130,
S.H. 45, and Loop 1 (Mopac), with many other U.S. Highways, state, county, and city roads
providing access throughout the region.
I-35 provides access to the north and south, with direct access to Dallas and Fort Worth,
approximately 200 miles directly north of Kyle, and San Antonio, Texas, approximately 60
miles directly southwest of Kyle.
U.S. 290 provides access to the east and west, with direct access to Houston, Texas,
approximately 165 miles directly east of Austin, and the intersect I-10 directly to the west
125 miles.
P a g e | 12
U.S. 79 provides access to the northeast, with direct access to Tyler, followed by I-20 where
connections leading to Atlanta and the East Coast of the United States are available.
S.H. 130 connects I-35 from Georgetown to South Austin (just north of Kyle) for quicker
access to southern parts of the region without directly traversing the City of Austin.
Additionally, Loop 1 (Mopac) and U.S. 45 allow for easier transportation flow throughout the
Greater Austin region.
The region’s overall central location and ease of access makes it a desirable location for
distributors of services and goods across many industries.
Airports
The Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (ABIA) is a much larger airport than its
predecessor, Robert Mueller Airport. The original facility was built in 1942 as Bergstrom Air
Force Base, but was closed in 1993 as part of a national base closing review. When the air
force base closed, the city passed a bond issue, raising over $330 million. Federal grants and
other sources contributed another $260 million to make the new airport the largest public
works project in Austin’s history. ABIA opened in late May 1999 with 25 airline gates
(expandable to 55) and two runways. To provide an Austin welcome to visitors, local bands
perform live music during happy hour at the airport. Some of Austin’s most popular
restaurants can also be found there. The concourse is also an exhibit that showcases local
artists and presents as a gallery highlighting the art of the region.
ABIA is serviced by 15 airlines, including Air Canada, Alaska, Allegiant Air, American Airlines,
British Airways, Branson Air Express, Condor, Delta, Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, Texas
Sky/Public Charters, United, US Airways, and Virgin America with nonstop service to 47
destinations. British Airways began flying non-stop to London Heathrow Airport in March of
2014 marking the first transatlantic service for the city.
The Airport Service Quality Awards has mentioned ABIA as one of the best airports in the
world and regularly ranks the airport in the top five in North America in terms of customer
service.
The following table presents historical data pertaining to the Austin-Bergstrom International
Airport.
P a g e | 13
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport
Airline Passenger / Freight Statistics
Period
Total Passengers
Annual
Change
Number
Total Cargo Tonnage
Annual
Change
Number
Year-end
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014 Jun YTD
2015 Jun YTD
2009 - 2014
2012 - 2014
6,707,081
-0.2%
7,683,545
6.1%
7,238,645
8,261,310
8,885,391
9,039,075
7.9%
7.5%
7.6%
-5.0%
229,750,544
210,881,429
5.8%
153,021,094
9,080,875
4.5%
10,017,958
241,814,505
254,419,495
201,881,429
-9.1%
9,430,314
-11.8%
1.7%
8,220,898
8,693,708
252,276,024
3.8%
6.2%
0.8%
-5.0%
-8.2%
-4.3%
156,076,988
-22.7%
153,371,030
0.2%
155,620,113
158,533,202
-2.0%
1.5%
1.9%
10,718,854
7.0%
155,440,494
-2.0%
5,593,403
9.3%
77,771,588
1.6%
N/A
5.4%
N/A
-0.1%
5,119,560
--
76,580,314
Compounded annual growth rate
N/A
6.6%
Source: Austin-Bergstrom International Airport
N/A
--
-0.1%
As shown, the recession impacted travel to and from the region in 2008 and 2009, but travel
patterns quickly recovered during 2010, and the area returned in 2011 to the historical
passenger volume records achieved in 2008. The property has continued to grow to the
point of four consecutive years of record growth making it one of the fastest growing
airports in the country. This has paralleled the continued growth of the regional lodging
industry.
Public Transportation
The MetroRail is a weekday service between Leander and downtown Austin and from
Lakeline to downtown on Saturday. Capital METRO offers daily bus transportation
throughout the City of Austin.
P a g e | 14
Office Market
Most lodging markets rely (to some extent) on local corporate demand; therefore, it is
important to analyze the office market trends for the area. Changes in inventory, occupied
square footage, new supply, and absorption levels are all indicators that depict a certain
amount of demand in a market, generally on weekdays.
The source of our macro and micro market historical trends and short term projections is
CBRE, one of the nationally recognized authorities in tracking office space inventory, vacancy
rates, and rental rates. We have also utilized some of the figures compiled by Colliers
International for Hays County. The historical trends and projected near-term performance
as described by these firms are considered in our analysis for projecting room night demand
growth in the area hotel market.
The regional office market heavily increased its overall office inventory from 2005 to 2009,
with consistently positive net absorption; however, the national recession temporarily
halted any continuing growth plans. Vacancy rates sharply increased from 2006 through
2010 with the national recession, before a measured decrease beginning in 2011. Coupled
with the spike in vacancy in 2009-2010 was a slight drop in overall average rental rates
throughout the regional office market. 2008 was the first year since 2002 that saw rental
rates decline for the area.
With little to no drop in inventory since 2010, the regional office market has been able to
improve its overall vacancy rate to 11.9%, while rental rates inched higher. Average rental
rates increased some 33% since the slight decline in 2008, showing the strength of the
rebounding regional office market.
A summary of the office survey data for the Greater Austin area market for 2nd Quarter 2015
is presented in the following table.
Dallas/Fort Worth Office Market
2nd Quarter 2015
Market
Austin CBD
Northwest
Far Northwest
North Central
Round Rock
East
South
Southwest
Austin Total
Hays County Total
TOTAL
Net
Rentable
Area (SF)
Direct
Vacancy
(SF)
Total
Vacancy
Rate
Average
Lease Rate
(Class A)
Average
Lease Rate
(Class B)
2015 Total
New Supply
(SF)
Current In
Progress
(SF)
557,470
451,973
-50,000
---690,932
669,842
512,658
128,700
164,962
-288,500
-465,193
9,809,755
13,158,731
4,110,579
3,036,685
620,894
1,941,766
1,746,355
10,109,725
1,000,267
1,356,169
640,027
496,134
52,975
253,314
266,053
1,234,463
10.2%
10.3%
15.6%
16.3%
8.5%
13.1%
15.2%
12.2%
$41.90
$32.74
$31.50
$33.38
--$28.00
$33.76
$36.43
$27.45
$27.33
$22.19
$24.43
$22.39
$14.94
$27.71
430,874
312,087
6,994
12,331
8,124
55,515
18,142
87,798
44,534,490
5,299,402
11.9%
$35.60
$25.33
931,865
44,534,490
691,606
5,299,402
54,925
11.9%
7.9%
Source: CBRE Research Q2 2015; Colliers International Q2 2015
P a g e | 15
2015 Net
Absorption
(SF)
$35.60
$19.56
$25.33
$16.18
931,865
4,800
1,750,375
--
1,750,375
2,229,855
--
2,229,855
As shown below highlighted in yellow, the south side of Austin’s CBD is experiencing
significant improvement and growth, which we expect will continue and could push demand
into the Kyle area.
The expected and continued improvement in the regional Austin office market, specifically
in the south side of the Central Business District submarket, is considered in our conclusions
of stabilized occupancy and ADR for the subject property and the partially competitive
market for hotels.
Tourism
The Austin-Round Rock- San Marcos MSA is home to a wide range of tourist attractions,
professional sporting, and entertainment events or venues.
Several college and semi-professional sports venues for the region are located within a short
drive from the proposed hotel sites in Kyle. With its numerous tourist attractions, the
Austin-Round Rock MSA is a very desirable destination for regional and national conventions,
sporting, and entertainment events.
Professional sports teams in the region include the Round Rock Express (AAA-Baseball),
Austin Toros (NBA-D-League), Austin Aces (Tennis), and the Texas Stars (AHL-Hockey).
Major NCAA sports teams in the region include the University of Texas longhorns and Texas
State University.
P a g e | 16
There are a number of major entertainment venues in the region and many districts that
provide plenty of things to do for area visitors. Consider the below map (Source: Around
Town) showing several of these districts in downtown Austin, which is located about 15
minutes from the subject area in Kyle, Texas.
The City of Austin has been dubbed the “Live Music Capital of the World” and there is no
shortage of live music at any number of venues any night of the week. The Sixth Street
District is also well-known for its distinct nightlife and entertainment venues that showcase a
local flair, yet attract global recognition. The downtown vicinity's boom of the last several
years has spurred most of the latest new hotel development in the region and the largest
increases of hotel supply in the nation.
The following table lists some of the top attractions in the Greater Austin area.
P a g e | 17
Greater Austin Area Attractions
Five Mile Dam
Randall Vetter Park
San Marcos Outlet Malls
TDS Exotic Game Ranch
Wonder World
Schlitterbahn Water Park
Barton Springs
Texas Museum of Science and Technology
The Contemporary Austin - The Jones Center
The Contemporary Austin - Laguna Gloria
The Texas Governor's Mansion
Thinkery
UMLAUF Sculpture Garden and Museum
Central Texas Speedway
Natural Bridge Caverns & Wildlife Park
Hamilton Pool
Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center
Zilker Botanical Garden
Texas State Capital
Austin Aquarium
LBJ Presidential Library
Texas Memorial Museaum
Austin Symphony Orchestra & Symphony Square
Ballet Austin
Austin Zoo
The Circuit of The Americas (Formula 1 Grand Prix)
Arboretum
Second Street District
The Domain
Sixth Street of Austin
Source: Austin Convention and Visitors Bureau
Conclusion
The Austin region’s economic growth suffered some setbacks in employment during the
recession, and more recently in 2011 and 2012, in the goods producing sectors. There was
also a solid recovery in 2013 and 2014 which has resulted in one of the top economies in the
country.
A measured growth in population and households (similar to that of 2010 - 2014) is expected
over the next few years along with continuing improvements in job growth. The region’s
economic growth and recovery is expected to outpace the national recovery effort.
The economic improvement of the region continues to demonstrate a positive impact on
accommodated demand growth levels for the regional lodging industry. Barring any
unforeseen catastrophic economic events, the outlook for the Austin-Round Rock MSA is very
positive with moderate growth through 2019.
P a g e | 18
Neighborhood Analysis
NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS
NEIGHBORHOOD BOUNDARIES
The proposed hotel site is yet to be determined; however, we have considered the general
area of the City of Kyle for the purposes of this study. Several potential locations are
mentioned in this report.
The neighborhood’s general boundaries, or those areas within which the proposed subject
hotel will depend upon for most of its demand capture, includes a broad area due to its focus
on regional demand and leisure business; and is defined as follows:
North: State Highway 71
South: State Highway 80
East: State Highway 130
West: vicinity of Wimberley
P a g e | 19
The majority of the neighborhood area consists of undeveloped land found within Hays
County. The thriving urban area of Austin has a relatively low percentage of undeveloped
land, and has experienced substantial growth in the last decade by way of redevelopment and
repositioning of various structures.
DEMOGRAPHICS
The following table provides a brief demographic overview of the area around the site of the
proposed hotel development.
Market Profile
Kyle, Texas - Hotel Market
2010, 2014, 2019
Compounded Annual %
Change
Ring: 5 mile radius
Population
Households
2010
2014
2019
46,129
54,402
66,770
14,222
16,651
20,422
Median HH Income
63,651
68,640
74,303
Population
60,733
71,382
87,295
Median Age
Ring: 7 mile radius
Households
30
18,847
30
22,025
26,954
4.0%
4.1%
Population
113,588
131,652
158,611
Median Age
32
32
33
Ring: 10 mile radius
Households
Median HH Income
37,642
58,173
Source: US Census Bureau; ESRI, and Stone HRE
30
43,740
59,179
1.6%
1.4%
72,385
30
1.9%
4.2%
4.2%
0.0%
66,738
Median Age
4.2%
4.0%
2014-2019
32
62,000
Median HH Income
2010-2014
4.1%
1.9%
4.1%
1.6%
33
0.0%
2.0%
53,129
3.8%
4.0%
64,385
3.8%
0.4%
0.1%
3.8%
1.7%
0.2%
As shown in the above table and map to the right, the defined neighborhood area (which is
best represented within the 1-mile radius), has demonstrated very slight population or
household growth between the Census 2010 and 2012, with limited growth occurring in the
downtown vicinity near the proposed hotel site at the center of the map.
With the projection of slight growth in all areas, the demographic profile of the
neighborhood promises to remain stable through 2017. It is important to note that
additional development in the downtown area could positively influence growth.
P a g e | 20
DEMAND GENERATORS
The current demand in the market can be seen by the high occupancies in the area. New
hotel development generally occurs when the occupancy in a market surpasses 70 -75%.
The additional space and new facilities should create a welcome alternative to an increasing
number of limited-service options in the area.
Other key demand generators in this neighborhood will be areas which contain local and
regional companies, within and proximate to the defined market area, or areas that may
provide recreational activities that may require multiple days. As we will discuss in the
Lodging Market Analysis section of this report, the corporate, leisure, and group segments
compose the bulk of hotel demand.
Specific to Kyle are two wedding venues that produce demand in the area. They are, as
follows:
Texas Old Town is known for its recent accolade of “Best Hill Country Wedding & Event Venue”
for 2015. This venue is located on 75 acres in the southwest portion of Kyle and was opened
in 2004. The wedding and event demand in the area has grown significantly and the
property has expanded to include four distinct venues with over 25,000 square feet of airconditioned event space. Sage Hall seats 320 guests, Stone Hall seats 320, Tejas Hall seats
350, and Redbud Hall seats 200 guests. Each venue has its own dedicated parking and
ceremony site to complement the indoor dressing rooms and reception areas. This facility is
host to over 250 weddings and events each year with no lodging component.
The Winfield Inn is another event venue located in Kyle on 27-acres. Built in 1883, this
facility offers an historic decor mansion and private suites for bride and groom and other
sitting rooms. The Garden Gazebo serves as a ceremony site as does the larger Garden
Ballroom. The facility can comfortably host an event for over 500 guests and has onsite
parking available. This facility only hosts one event per day and averages over 100 events
every year with no significant lodging component.
Event venues such as the two mentioned above deliver a significant number of room nights
to the market, primarily during the weekends, and are an exhibit of unaccommodated (or
unsatisfied) demand in the market place that will be considered in the demand analysis of
this study.
While it is located some 22 miles from downtown Austin, we have determined that south
Austin businesses generate a considerable amount of demand. Many of these travelers may
be choosing to stay away from downtown Austin; however, there have been more new hotels
built in Austin over the last few years than anywhere in the U.S.
There are currently as many as 55 new development projects in planning or under
construction in the Central Business District of Austin. We expect the number of corporate
business travelers coming to the market to continue for the foreseeable future.
Other demand generators contributing to downtown demand are the Formula One events and
the Schlitterbahn Waterpark, as well as a growing number of medical facilities.
P a g e | 21
CONCLUSION
The proposed City of Kyle hotel’s current market area is defined as a relatively large area
from the south side of Austin to the north side of San Marcos. The expected size of the new
facility will likely place the City in a position to attract and facilitate business from anywhere
in the market. While we found strong corporate and leisure demand, the hotel community we
spoke with felt this market would soon have additional corporate tenants resulting in more
lodging demand for the market area. With high occupancies already existing in all hotels, we
expect the demand to continue to grow.
Additionally, we have identified the expectation of an elevated level of leisure demand that
results from recreational activities and development, as well as, demand from events and
entertainment occurring in the downtown area.
The overall outlook for Kyle’s market area is considered very favorable for the foreseeable
future; in large part, due to the development improvements and expansion that has been
added in Austin over the last several years. This energy invites new corporate business to
the area, while retaining the existing businesses. Given the land available in Kyle and its
proximity to Austin, expansion is already beginning to show interest.
In summary, the neighborhood is considered to be supportive for the proposed subject
hotel’s development considering the existing business climate and the fast development pace
of Austin.
P a g e | 22
Site Evaluation
SITE EVALUATION
Location
The City has not designated a specific hotel site in Kyle, but has identified several sites that
are being evaluated a potential lodging sites. It is important to note that Stone HRE has not
selected any of the potential sites as a part of the scope of this study. These locations are not
owned by the City of Kyle and a more specific study of each site would be required to evaluate
the actual viability as a lodging development.
Our scope is to utilize a designated site for the study. It is our understanding that there are
several varying potential sites, but we have assumed a general vicinity site rather than a
specific site. Once a specific site is determined, we recommend a site specific study be
conducted. In order to complete the analysis, we will recommend facilities for the center of
the market and will not be analyzing any state or regional destination metrics in this scope
that could indicate the demand for such a development. Rather, the lodging demand
measured in the greater market area has been used for facility recommendations.
We expect a number of sites to eventually produce lodging facilities of an economy or selectservice nature along the I-35 corridor. Visibility from I-35 is important for any property
developed in the Kyle area at this time since most of the demand is coming from outside of
Kyle.
The first category of hotel development expected to occur is likely to be limited service. This
would include extended-stay product as well. The demand analysis revealed solid demand for
this type of lodging product in the area. Interviews with operators in the area specifically
revealed the need for extended-stay product.
The second category expected to emerge is full-service hotel development. This type of
lodging product typically requires sites that have the appropriate acreage and visibility for a
full-service product with associated parking and amenities.
Finally, the idea of a leisure-oriented, destination hotel would be a function of the
surrounding and associated master development and the level of demand for the specific
amenities associated with such a project. We recommend any developer of this type provide
a site-specific market study and possibly an economic impact analysis before support for
this type of development is granted.
The following locational map depicts the potential sites as indicated by the City of Kyle at this
time.
P a g e | 23
Site Evaluation
P a g e | 24
Site Evaluation
Physical Characteristics
The eventual site area of the proposed hotel should be analyzed to determine the highest and
best use. Overall, the site area should conform to, and be potentially supportive of, a
proposed hotel’s development needs from a spatial perspective.
The positioning of the site should provide excellent visibility. The topography should
generally be flat, and a proposed hotel tower structure should be expected to be highly visible
from all relevant directions, depending on the building’s positioning on the site.
Accessibility / Visibility
The site should be easily accessible from the east/west traveling on local thoroughfares and
the north/south with respect to I-35. Those accessing the site traveling from the interstate
should be able to exit within a convenient proximity of the hotel. Given the nature of the
business, there should be ample parking opportunities for visitors to the area.
Returning to the interstate should be managed by multiple routes to relieve any congestion
that may be caused from an event at the hotel. Overall, the site’s accessibility is important,
and effective parking design is recommended. The site should also have excellent visibility
within the Kyle area.
Surrounding Development
Many of the options for sites will have a variety of development in any direction that should
be carefully considered during the site selection process. City of Kyle officials have expressed
the desire to instill a sense of place beyond the development of a hotel that could integrate
the existing, and future, land uses.
The immediate neighborhood vicinity will likely include a mix of land uses. Overall, the area
is estimated to truly be only 40 to 50% developed due to the stockpiling of land for larger
projects and the recent history of development growth in the Kyle community.
P a g e | 25
Site Evaluation
Conclusion
There are several options and interested landowners with parcels suitable for hotel
development. Since a specific site was not designated, for the purposes of this analysis we
have considered the general area containing the potential sites. This is sufficient considering
the breadth of the lodging market area considered competitive.
The eventual subject site should contain both the good accessibility of the site, and the
excellent visibility within the Kyle area. A hotel located in the subject site area will require a
comfortably recognized brand in order to appeal to widespread visitors. We believe there
are several options available in regards to brand, but expect any hotel would be positioned as
an upper upscale, full-service property. The property’s affiliation and design/quality
characteristics should enhance the proposed hotel’s competitive position within the
extended market area to the north and the south.
P a g e | 26
Facility Recommendations
FACILITY RECOMMENDATIONS
FACILITY ASSUMPTIONS
Based on our evaluation of the subject site, our analysis of the competitive market hotels,
and in consideration of market dynamics observed, we have assumed the following facilities
for the proposed hotel development:
Type of Hotel
Guestrooms
King
Queen/Queen
Executive Suites
Hospitality Suites
Number of Guestrooms
Recommended Facilities
Proposed Hotel - Kyle, TX
Full-Service
Hotel Meeting Space*
Grand Ballroom
Junior Ballroom
Meeting Rooms (breakout)
Executive Boardroom
Total
Food & Beverage
65
80
4
1
150
5,000
3,000
5,000
500
13,500
sq. ft. divisible by 2
sq. ft. divisible by 2
sq. ft. 5 to 6 rooms
sq. ft.
sq. ft.
Three-Meal Restaurant (Room Service)
Lounge/Bar
Amenities
Potential Brands
(representative)
Breakfast/Coffee Shop
Business Center
Fitness Center
Gift Shop
Wireless / High Speed Internet
On-Site / Adjacent Parking
Indoor and/or Outdoor Pool with Whirlpool
Hilton
Marriott
Starwood
Hyatt
Omni
* Meeting Space should consider the specific site and surrounding land uses.
Source: Stone HRE
P a g e | 27
Facility Recommendations
The recommended facilities are based on several factors including the demand and potential
demand created by converging markets of South Austin and San Marcos to the south, as well
as our interviews with local organizations, managers, and various data points collected. Our
research identified the potential lodging needs for small groups as well as leisure guests and
business travelers. We believe that the recommended facilities will appeal to all segments,
while affording the subject property a competitive advantage in the area lodging market.
While the Greater Austin hotel market has enjoyed one of the greatest booms of new hotel
supply in recent history, there continues to be absorption of the new inventory; however, we
do not expect this trend to continue much longer. For this and other reasons, we are
recommending a full-service hotel with 150-rooms. This is not to say that other types of
hotel inventory would not work or will not be developed, but that our “best” choice is as
presented here.
We have recommended approximately 13,500 square feet of meeting space (roughly 90
square feet per room). This figure stems from comparable properties in similar locations and
intelligence collected from experienced industry professionals who recommend 70 to 100
square feet of hotel meeting space for every hotel room.
We believe a 150-room Upper Upscale, full-service hotel (Hilton, Marriott, Starwood, Hyatt, or
similar variation) would successfully meet the needs within the Kyle market area while
conservatively planning for future growth in the City.
P a g e | 28
Lodging Market Analysis
LODGING MARKET ANALYSIS
This section of the report illustrates the historical supply and demand trends for the local
hotel/lodging market, and specifically those existing lodging facilities which are anticipated
to be partially competitive with the subject property upon its completion. Market
information, estimates, and assumptions were derived through our interviews with
developers, franchise representatives, hotel management companies, and local city and
county government officials, inclusive of economic development offices and chambers of
commerce.
REGIONAL LODGING MARKET OVERVIEW
The historical operating performance levels for Austin and more specifically the Austin
Southwest/San Marcos (which encompasses Kyle) lodging market from 2010 through 2015,
based on data available from Smith Travel Research (STR), saw the increase of supply
continue unlike many other places in the nation. As of June 2015, there were as many as
eight lodging products in the construction phase (over twenty in the development pipeline)
for the greater market that currently includes over 100 properties and almost 9,000 rooms.
This represents a Compound Annual Growth in the number of rooms of just under 10%.
During 2010, the exit from economic recession was a key contributor to growing
occupancies and increasing average daily rates. Revenues per available room (RevPAR) were
noted to grow an estimated 10% in 2011 and another 12.2% in 2012. Despite the new
supply, increasing demand allowed for further advancement in 2013 through 2015 with
2013 posting an estimated RevPAR increase of 7.4%, and another 9.4% in 2014. Hotel taxes
also increased almost 25% during the two years of 2013 and 2014, and are up year over year
in 2015.
It should also be noted that the upper midscale and upscale properties in the region have
outpaced the region as a whole.
Regional Market Outlook
With supply growth expected to be significant over the next two years, and with demand
projected to continue rising at a steady pace, many in the industry are projecting the Austin
areas occupancies to fall behind National levels by 2016, and for ADR levels to slowly
continue their upward movement.
EXISTING COMPETITIVE SUPPLY
The following hotel market analysis involves a qualitative and quantitative review of supply
and demand trends for lodging facilities in the proposed property’s area. It includes a
description of the existing supply of, and demand for, hotel rooms, identification of existing
competitive properties, trends, major demand generators, both forthcoming and prospective
P a g e | 29
additions to supply (if any), and a discussion of the demand growth potential in the area.
This information was compiled through personal interviews, property inspections, and
internal research.
From our analysis of the demand emanating from the subject’s vicinity, it is our opinion that
the subject hotel would compete primarily for demand generated from a large radius of
roughly twenty miles in either direction. The subject’s main objective and purpose would be
to service the various and increasing demand in the immediate area, but would also compete
based on its close proximity to downtown Austin.
Based on our review of the area, we have identified seventeen hotels containing 1,979 rooms
as the proposed hotel’s initial primary competition. These hotels currently represent the
majority of midscale, limited-service properties within ten miles of the proposed hotel site
and are all chain-affiliated properties with recognized brands, and selected upscale selectservice and full-service properties from Kyle to the edges of surrounding market areas.
These properties were included in the competitive supply based on their location, facilities,
brands, markets served and/or average daily rates. The degree of competition offered by
each of these factors varies by property and market segment.
We anticipate that the proposed subject property, which is recommended to be an Upper
Upscale brand, will primarily be identified with the top tier of the defined competitive supply.
The subject’s proposed location is generally considered to be in an ideal area and provides a
competitive advantage over the other properties due to its expected cooperation with the
new convention center. Furthermore, the proposed hotel affiliation with a major hotel
chain, inclusive of the associated reservation system and the Rewards guest loyalty program,
combined with the newer design aspects and the quality of the product, should enable the
property to take full advantage of this location.
The subject property will be the newest full-service hotel in the area and the facilities will
represent the upper end of product scale within the competitive market area. Also, due to
the relative age of the competitive set properties, the new hotel should represent a
considerable upgrade in terms of design, technology, and appearance. As we learned in our
market interviews, one of the key considerations for choosing a hotel in the competitive
market by the typical traveler is the property’s hotel chain affiliation, and the traveler’s desire
to accumulate rewards points.
P a g e | 30
Existing Competitive Supply
Proximate Midscale Properties
Name
Hampton Inn & Suites
Austin South
Holiday Inn Express &
Suites Austin South
Comfort Suites Buda
Austin South
Quality Inn & Suites
Buda
Candlewood Suites San
Marcos
Wingate by Wyndham
San Marcos
Hampton Inn Suites
San Marcos
Comfort Suites Near
Texas State University
Address
City, ST zip
Year Opened
Number of Rooms
Meeting Space
Square Feet (SF)
Distance from
Subject (miles)
Service Type
Scale
Facilities
Buda, TX 78610
Buda, TX 78610
Buda, TX 78610
San Marcos, TX 78666
June-08
August-09
December-09
May-02
November-12
July-97
May-03
June-06
74
76
72
50
80
106
90
53
575 SF
250 SF
250
750
500 SF
500 SF
900 SF
500 SF
8.0 miles
8.3 miles
8.4 miles
7.5 miles
11.3 miles
10.0 miles
9.8 miles
9.7 miles
Select-Service
Select-Service
Select-Service
Select-Service
Extended Stay
Select-Service
Select-Service
Select-Service
Upper Midscale
Upper Midscale
Upper Midscale
Midscale
Midscale
Midscale
Upper Midscale
Upper Midscale
Pet-friendly, exercise room,
free hot breakfast, business
center, indoor heated pool,
free Wi-Fi, and free
newspaper.
Free hot breakfast, weekday
newspaper, pet-friendly,
fitness center, outdoor pool,
business center, and free WiFi.
Complimentary Wi-Fi to
priority Club members, petfriendly, kitchen, fitness
center, outdoor guest grill,
sundry shop, and outdoor
pool.
Free Wi-Fi, microwave,
refrigerator, free hot
breakfast, pool, and snack
shop.
Free Wi-Fi,
complimentary hot
breakfast, outdoor pool,
fitness center, business
center, microwave, and
refrigerator.
Complimentary Breakfast,
Complimentary Beverage
area, fitness room, pool, and
free Wi-Fi.
Kids eat free, outdoor pool,
business center, fitness
center, and complimentary
standard internet.
Compiled by: Stone HRE
P a g e | 31
Buda, TX 78610
Free WiFi, free continental
breakfast, business center,
fitness center, pool,
microwave and
refrigerator.
Existing Competitive Supply
Proximate Upscale Properties
Name
Address
City, ST zip
Year Opened
Number of Rooms
Meeting Space
Square Feet (SF)
Distance from
Subject
Service Type
Scale
Facilities
Courtyard New
Braunfels River Village
750 I-35 North
Hilton Garden Inn New
Braunfels
1501 I-35 North
New Braunfels, Texas 78130
New Braunfels, Texas 78130
July-09
May-10
125
1001 E. McCarty Lane
9515 Hotel Drive
Residence Inn Austin
South
4537 South I-35
Courtyard Austin
South
4533 South I-35
Marriott Austin South
4415 South I-35
4501 South I-35
Austin, Texas 78744
October-08
January-01
October-96
December-96
August-01
December-00
103
283
262
66
110
211
152
4,000 SF
2,512 SF
78,000 SF
70,000 SF
200 SF
700 SF
9,800 SF
200 SF
26.7 miles
24.2 miles
12.7 miles
23.6 miles
17.2 miles
17.3 miles
17.4 miles
17.4 miles
Select-Service
Select-Service
Full-Service
Full-Service
Extended Stay
Select-Service
Full-Service
Extended Stay
Upscale
Upscale
Upper Upscale
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upscale
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Free Wi-Fi, fitness center,
pool, balconies on some
rooms, refrigerator,
Bistro/Lounge, Sundry shop,
and business center.
Complimentary business
center, free Wi-Fi, pool,
restaurant and bar, fitness
center, microwave,
refrigerator, and sundry shop.
Complimentary cooked-toorder breakfast, outdoor pool,
full-service spa, casual
restaurant, evening reception,
fitness center, business
center, and standard two
room suites.
Free Wi-Fi, complimentary
breakfast, pet-friendly,
kitchenette in room, outdoor
pool, sport court, fitness
center, business center, free
shuttle to downtown Austin.
Complimentary Wi-Fi,
Bistro/Lounge, Starbucks,
fitness center, indoor
pool, business center, and
free evening shuttle to
downtown Austin.
Free Wi-Fi in public areas,
restaurant and lounge on
site, newsstand, fitness
center, indoor pool,
business center,
concierge, and free
evening shuttle to
downtown Austin.
Free Wi-Fi, kitchenette in
room, free hot breakfast,
fitness center, indoor
pool, free shuttle to
downtown Austin.
Complimentary shuttle
service, fitness room, walking
track, pool, convenience
store, gift shop, business
center, restaurant, lounge, and
Starbucks.
Austin, Texas 78744
Springhill Suites
Austin South
Austin, Texas 78744
San Marcos, Texas 78666
Hilton Austin Airport
Austin, Texas 78719
Compiled by: Stone HRE
P a g e | 32
Embassy Suites San
Marcos Hotel Spa
Austin, Texas 78744
The following maps depict the locations of each Competitive Set property relative to the
proposed subject hotel area, which is indicated by the yellow star.
Competitive Supply Map (Upscale Properties)
Hilton Airport
Marriott
Courtyard
Springhill
Suites
Courtyard
New Braunfels
Residence Inn
Embassy Suites
Hilton Garden
New Braunfels
P a g e | 33
Competitive Supply Map (Midscale Properties)
Hampton Inn
Comfort
Suites
Quality Inn
Holiday Inn
Express
La Quinta Inn
Hampton
Inn & Suites
Wingate
Comfort Suites
Candlewood
Competitive Set Performance
As noted at the forefront of this analysis, the leading source for operating and performance
data for the lodging industry is Smith Travel Research ("STR"). The following table present the
Competitive Set's aggregate occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR (room revenue per available room)
statistics from 2010 through 2014.
We have selected two divisions within the competitive set for this study to provide a complete
analysis of the market area. One set consists of Midscale properties in the closest proximity
to the subject area and another set includes upscale properties and covers a larger distance
from the center of Kyle. The competitive supply’s aggregate performance statistics as
reported by STR are summarized in the following tables.
P a g e | 34
Historical Performance of the MIDSCALE Competitive Supply
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Supply
Percent
Change
Occupied
Rooms
Percent
Change
Market
Occupancy
Average
Daily Rate
Percent
Change
Market
REVPAR
Percent
Change
214,255
N/A
123,321
N/A
57.6%
$95.13
N/A
$54.76
N/A
5.2%
65.2%
101.13
4.5%
65.89
5.9%
70.3%
113.62
5.3%
79.85
11.6%
N/A
71.5%
$117.13
N/A
$83.76
N/A
214,255
0.0%
135,644
10.0%
243,455
11.2%
161,556
13.2%
219,000
CAAG
243,455
14' YTD May
101,470
15' YTD May
101,470
3.2%
2.2%
0.0%
N/A
0.0%
Source: Stone HRE & Smith Travel Research
•
•
•
•
•
142,694
171,099
8.5%
72,560
76,401
5.3%
63.3%
66.4%
75.3%
96.73
107.86
4.5%
108.76
1.7%
6.7%
-7.1%
61.24
11.8%
71.58
8.6%
9.9%
81.89
7.6%
-2.2%
The Competitive Set comprised of midscale properties has experienced some
material supply growth since 2010. The increase in supply for 2013 was the
introduction of the 80-room Candlewood Suites in San Marcos.
There has been a significant increase in accommodated room nights every year since
2010. 2011 and 2013 experienced double-digit increases in accommodated demand.
ADR has risen consecutively in every year since 2010 with the Compound Annual
Aggregate since 2010 indicating an increase of 4.5%. However, the year-over-year
through June 2015 shows a hard decrease in ADR of -7.1%.
RevPAR increased greatly every year since 2010 as well with a Compound Annual
Aggregate increase of 9.9%.
The Midscale Competitive Set’s decline during year-to-date 2015, in particular the
ADR decrease, is tied to the recent year’s elevated demand in the market allowing
hoteliers to aggressively increase rates. With new supply entering the market and
the rates entering the rate zone occupied by upscale properties, the ADR for this set
seems to be correcting down year-to-date.
P a g e | 35
Historical Performance of the UPSCALE Competitive Supply
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Supply
Percent
Change
Occupied
Rooms
Percent
Change
Market
Occupancy
Average
Daily Rate
Percent
Change
Market
REVPAR
Percent
Change
466,470
N/A
311,135
N/A
66.7%
$108.93
N/A
$72.66
N/A
72.9%
124.12
9.2%
90.48
14.2%
2.9%
105.91
8.5%
N/A
$108.14
478,880
2.7%
333,779
7.3%
69.7%
478,880
0.0%
359,639
3.0%
75.1%
478,880
CAAG
478,880
14' YTD May
199,655
15' YTD May
199,655
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
N/A
0.0%
•
•
•
•
•
349,104
379,273
5.1%
161,122
161,122
4.6%
5.5%
N/A
0.0%
79.2%
80.7%
80.7%
113.69
4.4%
129.95
4.7%
133.73
5.3%
$134.00
143.20
6.9%
79.24
97.59
9.9%
115.56
9.1%
7.9%
N/A
6.9%
The Upscale Competitive Set has experienced no material supply growth since 2011.
The increase in supply for 2011 was the introduction of Hilton Garden in the second
half of 2010.
There has been a steady increase in accommodated room nights every year since
2010, which indicates a healthy response following the recent economic recession.
From 2010 to 2014 the Compound Annual Aggregate shows a 5.1% increase in
accommodated demand.
ADR has also shown solid growth with the Compound Annual Aggregate since 2010
indicating a 5.3% increase. Even the year-over-year increase through June 2015 was
6.9%.
RevPAR increased dramatically every year since 2010 benefiting from the healthy
growth in both occupancy and rate.
The Upscale Competitive Set’s improvement since 2010 and year-to-date 2015 is tied
to the elevated demand in the market allowing hoteliers to aggressively increase
rates. This strong growth trend is expected to continue until new supply enters the
market.
P a g e | 36
Historical Market Performance of the TOTAL Competitive Supply
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Supply
Percent
Change
Occupied
Rooms
Percent
Change
Market
Occupancy
Average
Daily Rate
Percent
Change
REVPAR
Percent
Change
680,725
N/A
434,457
N/A
63.8%
$105.01
N/A
$67.02
N/A
70.5%
117.45
8.0%
82.77
12.3%
97.13
9.4%
693,135
1.8%
469,423
8.0%
67.7%
722,335
3.5%
521,195
6.0%
72.2%
697,880
CAAG
722,335
14' YTD May
101,470
15' YTD May
101,470
1.5%
0.7%
0.0%
N/A
0.0%
•
•
•
•
•
491,797
550,372
6.1%
78,743
80,037
4.8%
5.6%
N/A
1.6%
76.2%
77.6%
78.9%
108.79
3.6%
123.10
4.8%
127.48
5.0%
$128.76
132.12
3.6%
N/A
2.6%
73.68
88.82
9.7%
$99.92
104.21
9.9%
7.3%
N/A
4.3%
The Total Competitive Set paints the aggregated picture of the market area and has
experienced very little supply growth since 2010. The increase in supply for 2011
and 2013 was the addition of the Candlewood and Hilton Garden Inn south of Kyle.
There has been an increase in accommodated room nights every year since 2010.
Year-to-date 2015 indicates only a 1.6% change in accommodated demand over the
same period in 2014. This is a sign that the demand in the market may be starting to
soften.
ADR dipped consecutively in 2009, 2010, and 2011, turning positive in 2012 with
the Compound Annual Aggregate since 2010 indicating an increase of 5.0%.
However, the year-over-year increase through June 2015 was just 2.6%.
RevPAR has increased every year since 2010 indicating a healthy market. The
Compound Annual Aggregate growth from 2010 to 2014 was 9.7%.
The Total Competitive Set’s improvement since 2010 and year-to-date 2015, in
particular the RevPAR increase, is tied to the elevated demand in the market allowing
hoteliers to aggressively increase rates. Even though there are some signs of a
softening marketplace, a positive growth trend is expected to continue until new
supply enters the market.
P a g e | 37
Changes to Supply
In order to appropriately analyze the competitive market over the projection period, any
new hotels entering or planned for the competitive market area should be considered. The
criteria used to select properties as additions to the defined competitive supply are as
follows:
•
•
•
•
•
National chain affiliation with a lodging product comparable to the subject property;
Competitive location, and similar size, amenities, and facilities;
Similar published and average annual room rates;
Reliable sources confirming the project;
Financing verified and in place, and project under construction at the time of our
research.
Our field work and analysis is limited to projects that are publicly known or disclosed. Future
projects that may come on line that have not been publicly disclosed and that may affect the
current competitive supply are thus beyond the scope of this analysis, as of the date
fieldwork was completed. During our research effort, we took what we believe to have been
reasonable attempts to determine the potential of new supply additions within the market.
According to Smith Travel Research, there are eight hotels (815 rooms) presently under
construction within the Austin Southwest/San Marcos region, and another 13 properties
consisting of over 1,100 rooms are in various levels of their planning stages. The locations of
all the hotels are not known, though we have identified several within the general market
area.
Based on our research, including our interviews with local government officials, real estate
professionals, and area property managers, there are a couple of directly-competitive supply
additions expected at this time. The addition of any rooms of an upscale nature will have an
impact on the Austin Southwest/San Marcos market overall. Accordingly, we have indicated
some of the supply additions in our supply projections. To attempt to reflect the impact of
future supply additions, either directly or secondarily competitive, we have remained
conservative with our demand growth (net) projections.
We have considered the following additions to supply in our analysis due to their likely
impact on overall demand in the Austin Southwest/San Marcos market; however, we do not
consider all of these properties to be directly competitive with the proposed hotel in Kyle.
•
Fairfield Inn & Suites San Marcos – This Marriott branded property will deliver 112rooms to the San Marcos area at 1250 N I-35. We have assumed this property will be
online by January of 2016.
P a g e | 38
•
•
•
Holiday Inn San Marcos – This hotel is expected to have 108-rooms and will be
operated at 1930 I-35 in San Marcos. The delivery date expected for this property is
January of 2016.
Hilton Garden Inn San Marcos – This hotel will have 108-rooms and be located on I35 at River Ridge Parkway. Our intelligence tells us that this property will open by
August of 2016.
Fairfield Inn & Suites Buda – This midscale Marriott property will build 92-rooms
currently under construction at Cabela’s Drive and Old San Antonio Road. We are
under the assumption that this property will open in July of 2016.
Some other proposed or under construction properties expected in the general area are
listed below. These have not been considered in the competitive supply because of their
limited-service nature and lack of impact on the full-service properties within one-half mile
of the new convention center.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Home2 Suites Airport – 84-rooms under construction near the airport at I-35 and
Stassney Road. The expected opening date for the property is July of 2016.
La Quinta Inn & Suites – 55-rooms at the 203 E Highway 90 in Luling, Texas.
Construction on this hotel should be complete by January 2016.
Hilton Garden Inn – This hotel is reported to be under final planning at 1501
Commerce Drive near the airport.
Currently there are 146-rooms under
consideration.
Residence Inn by Marriott – This hotel is reported to be under final planning near the
airport and will have 120-rooms.
Homewood Suites – This 85-room property is under final planning at I-35 and
Barnes Drive in San Marcos.
La Quinta Inn & Suites – This hotel is in the planning and pre-development phase and
80-rooms would be built near the San Marcos Outlet Mall.
Candlewood Suites – This hotel is reported to be under preliminary planning and
would have 83-rooms at 15101 South I-35 in Buda.
Holiday Inn Express - This 90-key property is under preliminary planning at 1930 I35 South in San Marcos.
P a g e | 39
DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimates of demand for lodging facilities within the defined market area included analysis of
the following:
•
•
•
•
•
Identification of the demand segments currently generating demand for hotel rooms
in the market;
Estimates of existing accommodated demand, for the competitive supply;
Identification of any daily and seasonal variations in lodging demand in the market
area;
Determination of unaccommodated demand in the market area; and
Estimates of growth.
This information was obtained, to the extent possible, through our interviews with
representatives of the proposed property’s competitors, and other hospitality industry
representatives. Through the interviews conducted we were able to formulate an estimate of
individual property performance.
Segmentation
Based on our interviews with management representatives of the competitive properties,
and from our knowledge of the subject property’s overall market area, we determined that
lodging demand for the competitive market is derived primarily by corporate business
between Sundays and Thursdays, while SMERF (Social, Military, Educational, Religious, and
Fraternal) group along with leisure demand dominate weekend occupancies. This is not to
say that there are not also a potential for weekday meetings, a trend we are unable to
measure with such limited supply in the immediate Kyle vicinity.
The strength of the market is supported by an occupancy percentage near 87% on Friday
and Saturday for the competitive properties, while Sunday occupancy averages in the midfifty percent occupancy range. Average Daily Rate also follows the same pattern at near $103
for Sunday through Thursday for midscale properties and more than $120 on Friday and
Saturdays. Upscale properties were more uniform showing Sunday through Thursday in the
$130 range with Friday and Saturday increasing to just over $140.
One item to note is the function and purpose of the proposed hotel will be dependent on
many demand generators not found in the immediate vicinity. This raises caution to
developers who might wish to locate more proximate to the various demand generators in
the market. We also believe that demand will increase among all segments as the area
develops, particularly in the leisure market segment due to the nature and anticipated uses
adjacent to the subject site.
P a g e | 40
General highlights of each of these market segments are presented as follows:
Leisure. This segment primarily includes leisure travelers visiting friends or area attractions,
festivals/events, or travelers seeking out Austin, Kyle, or San Marcos as a destination. In
general, this demand segment has a high incidence of weekend occupancy, an average length
of stay of one to two nights; and a relatively high percentage of multiple occupancies. Leisure
patrons are generally the most price-sensitive; however, in concentrated areas with multiple
attractions the leisure traveler may also be willing to pay a premium to be near the hub of
activity.
This demand is generally strongest on weekends in the spring, summer, and fall months. The
local market currently generates a large amount of leisure demand, with most consisting of
weekend demand from activities held in the general Austin area, those participating in
nearby activities, visitors to the museums and monuments, or from friends and families
visiting the area for weddings and family reunions. San Marcos generates a great deal of
demand during the summer months from the Schlitterbahn Waterpark as well. For the
subject’s existing Competitive Set, this demand is estimated to have represented
approximately 17% of total demand during 2014.
Corporate. This market segment includes business travelers that either work for employers
in the area, or are making calls on those same businesses. The corporate segment is
generally the least fee sensitive and is generally willing to pay for a higher level of amenities
than other travelers. Traveler volume in this segment is typically highest Sunday through
Thursday nights. The local market currently offers area hotels significant demand from the
City’s businesses and office space.
While we anticipate continuing growth in this segment, as is evidenced by the recent
sustained growth of the South Austin redevelopment market. For the subject market, this
demand is estimated to have represented approximately 67% of the Competitive Set’s total
demand for 2014.
Group. This market segment includes corporate groups, convention/conference demand,
trade shows, training events, state and regional associations, and SMERF groups. This
demand segment often requires slightly discounted room rates, flexible meeting and banquet
facilities, sufficient food and beverage service, and efficient check-in/check-out and billing
procedures. For the subject’s competitive market, this demand includes corporate groups (in
need of meeting facilities) during the weekdays, some City-wide conventions, trade shows,
and SMERF groups with spatial needs on later weekdays and weekends.
The group segment is estimated to have represented approximately 17% of total demand for
the Competitive Set during 2014. This percentage is slightly deceptive since most of the
competitive properties have little-to-no meeting space. A few properties in the competitive
set (Hilton Airport, Marriott Austin South) could serve as additional rooms for larger Citywide conventions or displaced meetings from such events. Any compression from this group
activity results in budget-focused business going to most of the limited-service properties in
the area.
P a g e | 41
Historical Demand Trends
Based on our research, the following observations were made with respect to the achieved
demand levels and resulting market occupancies for the competitive market hotels:
•
•
•
•
•
The subject’s total competitive lodging market has continued to increase since 2010.
Occupancies have continued to surge upward in 2010 through 2014. This indicates a
compound annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2010 to 2014. The demand in the
market was already very strong prior to 2010 and has had very little new supply
enter the market. Most of the new supply during these years was being realized in
downtown Austin.
As demand continued to rise for five consecutive years, rate has also grown. This
trend likely supports an increase in demand in the market.
Assuming that a pace of 3.0% growth were to continue, with no new supply, the
market would be on pace to reach an 85% occupancy by 2017. Such growth
indicates, intuitively, that the market could easily bear more supply, which is why
there has been a recent boom of upscale limited-service properties planned and
under construction.
New supply often adds an incremental component of new demand while relieving
excess lower ADR demand from full-service properties. This is one of the reasons we
have included four such properties in our analysis.
Projected Demand Growth
Future growth in accommodated room nights is estimated based on an analysis of historic
and projected lodging supply and demand growth, in conjunction with the impact of certain
key economic and demographic indicators. For the subject’s region, and for the Competitive
Set specifically, those key factors would include employment growth locally, national
employment trends, population and household growth, and (to some extent) airline statistics.
Because of the speculative nature of projecting demand growth far into the future, we
carefully considered the future supply growth, either known or anticipated. Thereafter, we
assumed that the market would operate at a stabilized level due to either demand timing
constraints, or from the effect of future supply increases which will cancel out further
occupancy gains.
Furthermore, our projections from this point forward in the report make the assumption
that a hotel will be developed within the City of Kyle on an undetermined site, and that this
development will carry with it an inherent demand that adds significant direct locational
demand to the hotel. In the absence of a specific site, we have utilized the center of Kyle as a
point of reference. It is important to note that once a specific site is selected, there would
need to be a site specific market study or this study should be updated with a site in mind.
P a g e | 42
Core Demand
As discussed, accommodated demand for the competitive market increased by 8.0% for
2011, followed by continued levels of strong growth of 4.8%, 6.0%, and 5.6% during 2012
through 2014, respectively. As depicted in the Market Area Analysis section, various indices
point towards continued demand growth over the foreseeable future, including job growth,
population and household growth, and overall airline passenger growth; and the Austin
area’s demand growth was recently forecasted by the PKF Hotel Horizons Report: 2nd Quarter
2015 to remain strong or decrease only slightly despite the addition of new supply.
Through our competitive market interviews, operators at most of the competitive properties
cited an expectation for demand growth to continue for 2015 in all demand segments,
barring any unforeseen catastrophic events.
Consistent with market participant’s
expectations, and in consideration of the aforementioned statistics and projections, we have
modeled core demand to continue at a conservative growth rate through 2015. We have
conservatively estimated overall demand to rise by approximately 2.0% for 2015, although
demand increased by 1.6% through June 2015 year-to-date.
Demand growth for the Competitive Set should remain strong in 2016 and 2017 due to the
continued favorable market conditions expected in the subject’s market area. Based on our
segmented growth estimates, we projected continued demand growth averaging 5.6% from
all segments in 2016, which is a result of new properties entering the market.
In 2018 through 2020 we also allowed for some shock resulting from the new supply
entering the market and being absorbed. This is shown with growth rates of 2.0% and 1.0%
in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This shock might typically be greater; however, the synergy
created by the activity may attract businesses to relocate to the Kyle area.
Extraordinary Demand
Extraordinary demand is described as either latent or induced demand. Latent demand
represents room night demand that is present in the market but is not accommodated, for
any number of reasons, and therefore leaves the market. Latent demand in this market
typically stems from area corporate, group, and leisure demand that would like to patronize
hotels in the market but are unable to because of the lack of sufficient hotel facilities in the
immediate area during peak demand times. Specifically, unsatisfied demand in this market
has been identified in the area of weddings and events.
Potential induced demand for situations involving new supply (e.g. new convention center or
expansion, new attraction or expansion, or new hotels) can be estimated by evaluating the
subject market's historical performance when a similar situation occurred, the performance
of comparable markets when a similar situation occurred, interviews with potential users of
the new facility, and/or utilization projections by the developers of the new facility. In sum,
potential induced demand can be reasonably estimated by evaluating the catalyst for the
induced demand in terms of its projected utilization and likely effect on hotel demand in a
market.
P a g e | 43
We have considered extraordinary demand in 2016 through 2018 with additions to supply
and the new hotel assumed to be opening in 2017. Additional extraordinary demand may
occur in the form of (for example) more Formula One and Grand Prix races being scheduled.
Supply Increase
The competitive market supply is projected to grow from a room count of 1,979 available
rooms in 2015, to 2,281 by 2016, representing an increase approximating 15.3%. This
indicates the point of impact the four limited service hotels we previously discussed would
have on the market.
With no further supply additions occurring within the Competitive Set until the subject’s
January 2017 addition, demand levels should continue to increase while occupancy can be
expected to decline for a year to allow for the absorption of more rooms in the market.
Ideally, the new hotel will benefit from its strategic location, the strength of their brand
reservation system, and the efforts of their in-house sales staff, which will further enable the
hotel to induce new demand to the market.
Based on our analysis of the Competitive Set’s existing and prospective future supply and
demand levels, our annual supply and demand growth estimates, resulting demand capture,
and occupancy levels, are estimated for the defined competitive supply, as presented in the
following two tables.
Competitive Supply's Projected
Growth Rates
Year
Ending
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Corporate
Group
Leisure
Total Demand
Total Available
Rooms
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
3.2%
4.0%
3.9%
3.5%
5.3%
5.0%
2.0%
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
4.5%
5.4%
2.0%
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Note: Totals include induced or unsatisfied demand.
Source: Stone HRE
P a g e | 44
7.8%
6.5%
2.0%
1.1%
1.9%
2.1%
2.0%
0.0%
5.6%
15.3%
2.0%
0.0%
5.3%
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
11.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Competitive Supply's Historical and Projected
Supply and Demand (Room Nights)
Total Demand
Total Available
Rooms
Estimated
Market
Occupancy
2010
434,457
680,725
63.8%
2013
521,195
722,335
72.2%
Year
Ending
2011
2012
469,423
491,797
693,135
697,880
67.7%
70.5%
2014
2015
561,300
722,335
592,600
722,335
77.7%
2016
550,372
76.2%
832,565
71.2%
2017
624,200
930,385
67.1%
2018
646,000
930,385
69.4%
2019
659,000
930,385
70.8%
2020
665,600
930,385
71.5%
2021
678,800
930,385
73.0%
2022
692,500
930,385
74.4%
2023
706,300
930,385
75.9%
2024
706,300
930,385
75.9%
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Assumes market
stabilization in 2023.
Source: Stone HRE
As depicted above, we have estimated the Competitive Set’s occupancy to stabilize in 2023 at
75.9%. This stabilized estimate compares to the market high of 2014, yet the supply
increases to the market will have gone up 25% since 2015. Furthermore, the number of fullservice hotel rooms will not have increased and therefore will allow for further growth in
the Kyle area.
While we opine that the market may perform at levels exceeding 75.9% in some years, it will
also likely decline in some years. The most likely scenario would consider that there is going
to be much more supply added to the market, which would further decrease the achieved
occupancy. Also, when projecting so many years into the future, there is a higher possibility
that drastic changes could occur on national, state, or local levels that may impact the
likelihood of our stated results. Our stabilized estimate is intended to represent an average
over a period of time after completion, and is therefore deemed to be reasonable at the
concluded level.
P a g e | 45
Projected Performance – Proposed Hotel
PROJECTED PERFORMANCE – PROPOSED HOTEL
INTRODUCTION
For the purposes of the quantitative analyses contained in this report, we assumed a 150room inventory for our analysis of the proposed hotel. Our projections assume that the
proposed hotel will be developed as described herein. In projecting the proposed property’s
future performance, we assumed the following:
1. The property will be professionally managed with a well-coordinated, aggressive
marketing strategy;
2. The hotel will contain 150 guest rooms, open by January 1, 2017, and be affiliated as
an Upper Upscale, branded hotel within a major hotel chain; thus benefitting from
the respective reservation system and guest loyalty program. Using these
parameters, we have loosely modeled our projections on a convention style property
by a recognized chain, such as Hilton, Marriott, Starwood, Hyatt, or other;
3. The hotel will be of first-class construction quality; and be maintained to competitive
standards;
4. The hotel will be competitively priced;
In consideration of the aforementioned, room occupancy was projected by evaluating the
ability of the proposed hotel to attract a share of demand in each market segment in
consideration of the relative locational and facility characteristics of the hotel. The unit of
measure in evaluating market share is the penetration ratio. This is defined as a hotel's
percentage of demand in a given segment divided by its proportionate or "fair" share of total
room supply.
If all properties within a market were equal in quality, location, and rate structure, each could
be expected to attract demand in proportion to its size, thereby achieving a penetration ratio
of 100 percent. A property which has a competitive advantage in attracting demand from a
given segment of the market can be expected to penetrate that segment at greater than 100
percent; the same property may achieve relatively low penetration in a segment in which it is
at a competitive disadvantage.
As a full-service hotel, the subject will be expected to achieve somewhere near its fair share
in regards to area business.
P a g e | 46
PROJECTED OCCUPANCY FOR THE SUBJECT PROPERTY
To estimate future occupancy levels for the subject hotel, we analyzed historical penetration
levels of the competitors, the anticipated changes in supply, and the subject property’s
anticipated competitive position relative to the other facilities in the market.
Penetration is the ratio of a particular property’s actual room nights captured over its fair
share. Fair share represents the ratio of the property’s number of rooms to the total rooms
in the defined competitive supply. The ratio is then applied to total market demand to
measure the property’s actual room nights compared to its fair share of room nights.
Penetration is a relative, as opposed to an absolute, measure of performance. Accordingly, it
tends to fluctuate based on the size and resultant fair share of the various competitors within
a defined market.
Penetration Analysis
To estimate anticipated penetration rates for the proposed subject property, we have
considered the historic penetration rates of the competitive properties within the defined
competitive supply. We also considered the following primary factors in our selection of the
appropriate prospective penetration rates for the proposed subject hotel:
•
•
•
•
The proposed subject hotel’s eventual selected site should have an ideal location with
both excellent visibility and accessibility within Kyle.
The property’s initial penetration levels are slightly below the projected stabilized
levels. This is intended to adequately reflect the initial period of time which will be
required for the property to be exposed to the market. We expect a stabilized level of
penetration after three years.
The proposed hotel will be in the top half of properties for the Competitive Set hotels
located in market as outlined. Furthermore, the proposed subject hotel’s guest
rooms will be newer than most of the Competitive Set properties, which should be
perceived as an exceptional price/value relationship for the property.
The proposed subject hotel’s affiliation as a branded property, within a respected
hotel chain, will benefit the property’s performance due to contribution from the
reservation system, and from the popular frequent stay points program.
Our conclusions for the subject property’s penetration estimates, which are based on the
subject’s perceived competitive strengths and weaknesses, and which take into account the
Competitive Set’s historical performance levels, are summarized below. Applying these
estimates to the future Competitive Set occupancy projections concluded earlier results in
our estimated calendar year occupancy levels for the proposed subject hotel.
P a g e | 47
Market Penetration and Projected Occupancy
TOTAL ROOM NIGHTS AVAILABLE
Competitive Market
Fair Share of Supply
ESTIMATED TOTAL MARKET DEMAND
Corporate
Leisure
Group
TOTAL
FAIR SHARE OF DEMAND
Corporate
Leisure
Group
TOTAL
SUBJECT PENETRATION
Corporate
Leisure
Group
ROOM NIGHTS CAPTURED
Corporate
Leisure
Group
TOTAL CAPTURED DEMAND
MARKET SHARE CAPTURED
OVERALL MARKET PENETRATION
SUBJECT OCCUPANCY
MARKET MIX
Corporate
Leisure
Group
TOTAL
Source: Stone HRE
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
54,750
54,750
54,750
54,750
54,750
930,385
====
5.9%
====
930,385
====
5.9%
====
930,385
====
5.9%
====
930,385
====
5.9%
====
930,385
====
5.9%
====
413,100
106,600
104,500
------624,200
------624,200
426,500
110,800
108,700
------646,000
------646,000
435,100
113,000
110,900
------659,000
------659,000
439,400
114,200
112,000
------665,600
------665,600
448,200
116,400
114,200
------678,800
------678,800
80%
85%
90%
-------
85%
90%
90%
-------
90%
95%
95%
-------
90%
95%
100%
-------
90%
95%
100%
-------
19,400
5,300
5,500
------30,200
====
21,300
5,900
5,800
------33,000
====
23,000
6,300
6,200
------35,500
====
23,300
6,400
6,600
------36,300
====
23,700
6,500
6,700
------36,900
====
82%
------55%
-------
87%
------60%
-------
92%
------65%
-------
93%
------66%
-------
92%
------67%
-------
64%
18%
18%
------100%
====
65%
18%
18%
------100%
====
65%
18%
17%
------100%
====
64%
18%
18%
------100%
====
64%
18%
18%
------100%
====
24,300
6,300
6,100
------36,700
-------
4.8%
25,100
6,500
6,400
------38,000
-------
5.1%
25,600
6,600
6,500
------38,700
-------
5.4%
25,900
6,700
6,600
------39,200
-------
5.5%
26,400
6,800
6,700
------39,900
-------
5.4%
As shown, the subject is projected to achieve a stabilized occupancy level of 67% by 2021,
reflecting a penetration rate of 92%. This penetration estimate appears conservative and
reasonable considering the proposed subject hotel’s location, its product positioning in the
upper-tier of the competitive market supply, and its market orientation. Our analysis
presumes that the property will maintain and slightly grow that occupancy level, on average,
over the projection period.
P a g e | 48
Also of note, we expect the property to achieve its fair share in group business since that is a
function of the hotel not found at all of the competitive properties. Likewise, the subject
hotel is not expected to achieve its fair share of demand in either the corporate or leisure
sector.
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P a g e | 49
Projected Average Daily Rate
PROJECTED AVERAGE DAILY RATE
The average daily room rate (ADR) for the competitive market and subject property are
projected on the basis of the Competitive Set’s historical trends, rates at the Competitive Set
and other similar properties, the relative quality levels of the competitive hotels, and the
assumption of competent management.
For the years from 2015 through 2017, we estimated ADR to continue growing, which
reflects the conditions in the market paired with reasonably conservative growth. The
proposed hotel enters the market in 2017 and will negatively impact the market occupancy
while the new supply is absorbed; however the market will continue to push ADR a
projected 2.0%, despite the increase in the competition within the market. We expect ADR
will continue to gradually climb in 2018 through 2021 as the market stabilizes. Factoring in
occupancy levels, and analyzing resulting RevPAR projections, our expected rates have been
set in consideration of the slightly higher rates typically associated with full-service
properties, which is considered conservative in a market with a growing economy.
In our opinion, given the proposed hotel’s location characteristics, the hotel’s planned
product scale, the proposed room count, and the excellent brand awareness for the property,
we estimate that the subject’s ADR index should be reasonably positioned at a level
approximating 102%.
The proposed hotel’s projected ADR’s, in inflated dollars, are presented in the following table.
Historical and Projected Average Daily Rate
Competitive Market and Subject Property
Period
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Forecast
Competitive Market
Rate of
ADR
Change
$105.01
$108.79
3.6%
$127.48
3.6%
$117.45
$123.10
ADR
Rate of
Change
RevPAR
Index
8.0%
4.8%
2015
$132.00
3.5%
2016
$134.75
2.0%
2017
$137.25
2.0%
$140.50
102%
82%
84%
2018
$139.50
1.5%
$142.50
1.5%
102%
87%
89%
2019
2020
2021
$141.50
$143.00
$144.25
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
$144.75
$146.25
$147.50
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
102%
102%
102%
92%
93%
92%
93%
95%
94%
Note: 1 Stone HRE projections are presented in bold type.
Source: Stone HRE
P a g e | 50
Subject Property
ADR
Penetration
Index
Index
PROJECTED OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Using our estimates of annual occupancies and average daily rates for the proposed hotel,
coupled with our assumptions regarding levels of service and ancillary facilities, we have
estimated the potential revenues and expenses by department for the property’s first ten
years of operation. Our statement of estimated operating results for the proposed hotel
included at the end of this section is stated in inflated dollars and in the format prescribed by
the Uniform System of Accounts for Hotels. The following text describes our rationale for each
line item of the financial projections.
PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
The subject property will be oriented as a full-service hotel product with slightly larger than
standard room sizes and Upper Upscale amenities.
Estimates of future operating results for the proposed subject property have been prepared
for the 10 years from 2017 to 2026.
Comparable Income and Expense Data
Data from the following sources has been used as the basis for the income and expense
assumptions in our financial projection for the subject property.
•
•
Historical operating data from several full-service and upper upscale select-service
hotels was analyzed for the subject’s analysis, including the revenues and expenses
from the operations of six comparable properties compiled from our confidential
database of operating statements for a blend of branded properties. The comparable
data selected was considered to have the most similar market locations and/or scope
of operations, and to operate with occupancies, average room rates, or RevPAR levels
that were reasonably close to those projected for the proposed subject hotel. Due to
the confidential nature of the information, the comparable properties have not been
identified.
Our analysis also considered PKF Hospitality Research Group's "2014 Trends in the
Hotel Industry," which includes operating data from 2013. While we also considered
the 2009 through 2012 PKF Trends data, the pre-recessionary operating
performance levels for the industry are also deemed relevant for projecting future
stabilized operating levels. Furthermore, we note that this analytical basis is
consistent with findings from our discussions with hotel operators and investors
who consistently refer back to 2007 and 2008 operating performance levels for
baseline comparisons. The data considered for our analysis includes the operating
performance data for the Full-Service Hotels property category, which is the most
comparable property category for the subject property based on property type.
P a g e | 51
The bases for our projections and estimations relative to the proposed 150-room full-service
hotel are founded on our evaluation of market findings. We have estimated revenues and
expenses based on the market analysis described herein, the performance of comparable
properties, typical industry parameters, and premiums and efficiencies for a full-service
hotel. In evaluating comparable properties, we considered expenses as a percent of revenue,
as well as per occupied room (POR) and per available room (PAR). It is important to note
that all data has been adjusted to 2014 dollars in order to facilitate our comparative analysis.
We have utilized an average inflation rate of 3.0% for purposes of inflating the expense
comparable data to 2017, as well as for the underlying inflationary growth assumptions
within our cash flow modeling over the 10-year period. We must also, once again, issue that
these projections are representative and would need to be refined further once the various
particulars of the hotel (such as brand, property tax, management and franchise fees) are
determined.
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P a g e | 52
REVENUES
Our analysis of projected revenues for the subject property addresses individual
departmental revenues and other miscellaneous revenue items.
Rooms Revenue
A detailed analysis of our projected occupancy and ADR is included in the Lodging Market
Analysis and Average Daily Rate Analysis sections of this report. The following table
illustrates the rooms revenues concluded previously.
Estimated Rooms Revenue
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Source: Stone HRE
Annual
Occupancy
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
67.0%
67.0%
67.0%
67.0%
67.0%
Average
Daily Rate
$140.50
$142.50
$144.75
$146.25
$147.50
$152.00
$156.50
$161.25
$166.00
$171.00
Rooms
Revenue
4,230,000
4,681,000
5,152,000
5,285,000
5,410,000
5,575,000
5,740,000
5,915,000
6,089,000
6,272,000
Food & Beverage Revenue
Food and beverage revenues include those generated from the subject’s restaurants and
lounges, and from its room service operations, as well as from those associated with events
held at the property’s function space, and from catering operations. The subject’s food and
beverage revenues per occupied room, and as a percent of rooms revenues, from all sources
considered in this analysis, along with our concluded projections.
Other Operated Departments Revenues
This revenue category includes all revenues generated within the hotel’s other focal
operated departments including telecommunications. For the proposed subject property, this
will include income from the any gift shop retail store revenues. These revenues are highly
variable with the occupancy of the hotel and can differ significantly between different hotels.
For the first projection year, this revenue was estimated on a stabilized basis at $4.00 per
occupied room. This per occupied room revenue estimate was inflated by the 3.0%
inflationary assumption for all years of the projection period.
P a g e | 53
Rentals and Other Income (Net) Revenues
This department includes net revenues from all other revenue sources, including vending
commissions, in-room movie rentals, meeting room rental, guest valet services, cancellation
fees, and other miscellaneous incomes. In the first projection year, this revenue was
estimated on a stabilized basis at $2.00 per available room. This per available room estimate
was inflated by the 3.0% inflationary assumption for all years of the projection period.
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES
Departmental expenses are directly related to a corresponding departmental revenue
category. These are discussed in the following sections.
Rooms Expenses
Rooms expenses includes charges associated with the occupancy of the guest rooms such as
staffing of the front office and housekeeping reservation fees, travel agent commissions,
credit card bank fees, guest room and cleaning supplies, laundry expenses, and front office
supplies. We have projected the subject’s stabilized departmental rooms expense at $34.00 in
the first projection year. As a percentage of total revenues, this expense category is expected
to reach a stabilized level of 28.3% as the occupancy and ADR levels increase and collectively
stabilize in the fourth year of the projection period.
Food and Beverage Department Expenses
Food and beverage departmental expenses include the cost of goods, payroll, and operating
expenses related to the generation of food and beverage revenues. Giving consideration to
the expected size of the food and beverage operation at the property, we have estimated the
subject’s stabilized food and beverage expense at 55% of departmental revenues. There is a
definite potential for banquet and catering revenues to increase at this property over time
and will drive increased profit.
Other Operated Departments Expenses
This department includes expenses derived from all other minor operated departments. We
estimated this expense on a stabilized basis of 63% of departmental revenues.
UNDISTRIBUTED EXPENSES
Undistributed expenses are expenses that are not related to any specific departmental
revenue. These are discussed below.
Administrative and General Expenses
Administrative and general expenses (A&G) include salaries and benefits of the general
manager and staff, credit card commissions, professional fees, bad debt, data processing,
general liability insurance, accounting audits, and executive office expenses. We estimated
P a g e | 54
this expense in the first projection year on a stabilized basis of $2,250 per available room,
representing 8.3% of total revenues. This per available room amount was adjusted down for
efficiencies in the first through third years, and by the underlying inflation growth rate
assumption of 3.0% over all remaining years of the projection period, with this expense
representing 7.8% of total revenues at stabilization.
Marketing Expenses
The marketing expense generally includes the salaries and benefits of the sales staff, the cost
of advertising and marketing materials and distribution, brochures, and local promotional
activities, as well as any travel agency fees and travel. Our concluded marketing expense
estimate for the subject hotel, on a stabilized basis of $2,500 per available room in the first
projection year, in which year this expense equates to 6.9% of total revenues. This per
available room amount was adjusted for efficiencies in the first through third years, and by
the underlying inflation growth rate assumption of 3.0% in all later years, and at stabilization
this expense equates to approximately 6.4% percent of total revenues.
Franchise Fees
The franchise fees will vary based on the brand and if the property is operated as a
franchised property. Various fees are involved in any agreement and would be paid in order
to maintain a franchise affiliation. Generally, these fees have three components to include
rooms, marketing, and royalty fees. In the interest of a general assumption, we have used a
fee of 9.0% of total revenues. Typically, the combination of marketing and franchise fees
would not exceed 11% in a well-operated property.
Property Operation and Maintenance Expenses
Property operations and maintenance (POM) is comprised of wages, contract services, and
supplies associated with the maintenance of the main hotel area of the subject property, its
mechanical systems, and its grounds. Property operations and maintenance expenses are
considered relatively "fixed" and do not vary significantly with changes in occupancy. We
have estimated this expense in the first projection year on a stabilized basis of $1,600 per
available room, equating to 4.5% of total revenues in that year. This per available room
amount was adjusted for efficiencies in the first and second projection years, and by the
underlying rate of inflation of 3.0% in all later years. At stabilization, this expense represents
4.1% of total revenues.
Utilities Expenses
Utilities expenses include electricity, gas, water, and sewer charges. This expense is
considered to be highly variable, based on occupancy. The subject’s stabilized utilities
expense has been estimated in the first projection year on the basis of $1,500 per available
room. This amount was increased by the inflationary growth rate assumption of 3.0% for
each year thereafter, and at stabilization this expense represents 3.8% of total revenues.
P a g e | 55
FIXED CHARGES
Base Management Fees
Base management fees typically range from 3.0% to 5.0% of total revenues. Based on the
comparable data analyzed, we have estimated management fees at 3.0% of total revenues.
Property Taxes
We have included real estate taxes on the basis of the assessments and property tax rates for
several of the regional competitive properties. This estimate represents an expense of $1,181
per available room, or 3.0% of total revenues, at stabilization. We would expect there to be
certain adjustments made in this category based on any incentives provided to the
development.
Insurance Expenses
This expense reflects the cost of maintaining insurance coverage for the building and its
contents, as well as for liability coverage. We have estimated this expense at $450 per
available room in the first projection year, and have increased this expense estimate by 3.0%
annually thereafter. This too will vary depending on the final arrangement of brand and
management for the property.
Reserve for Replacement
This expense represents the creation of a reserve account that is set aside to provide for the
periodic replacement of capital items including furniture, fixtures, and equipment during the
life of the building. Hotel properties similar to the subject property typically include a
replacement reserve allowance ranging from 4.0% to 5.0%, though newly completed
properties typically utilize a stepped reserve during the first three years due to the limited
capital expectancy for the first several years of operations. We have included a stepped
replacement reserve on the basis of 2.0% in the first year, 3.0% in the second, and 4.0%
annually thereafter.
Reconciliation of Cash Flow Projections
We note that the subject’s net cash flow level of 25.7% in the stabilized projection year is
well within the range of net cash flow projections for comparable data when adjusting for
management fees and reserves.
Projected Operating Results
The revenue and expense projections presented on the following page include our estimates
of the financial operating performance for the proposed full-service hotel over the first ten
years of operations, with an assumed opening date of January 1, 2017. These figures are
presented in the stated years’ inflated dollars.
P a g e | 56
Proposed Hotel-Kyle, TX
2017
150
54,750
30,110
55.0%
$140.50
$77.28
Amount
Number of Units:
Number of Annual Rooms Available:
Number of Rooms Occupied:
Annual Occupancy:
Average Daily Rate:
Revenue Per Available Room:
Revenues
Rooms
Food & Beverage
Other Operated Departments
Rentals and Other Income
Total Revenues
Calendar Years
Ratio
2018
150
54,750
32,850
60.0%
$142.50
$85.50
Amount
Ratio
2019
150
54,750
35,590
65.0%
$144.75
$94.09
Amount
Ratio
2020
150
54,750
36,140
66.0%
$146.25
$96.53
Amount
Ratio
2021
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$147.50
$98.83
Amount
Ratio
$4,230,000
1,152,000
132,000
66,000
5,580,000
75.8%
20.6%
2.4%
1.2%
100.0%
$4,681,000
1,294,000
148,000
74,000
6,197,000
75.5%
20.9%
2.4%
1.2%
100.0%
$5,152,000
1,444,000
165,000
83,000
6,844,000
75.3%
21.1%
2.4%
1.2%
100.0%
$5,285,000
1,510,000
173,000
86,000
7,054,000
74.9%
21.4%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
$5,410,000
1,579,000
180,000
90,000
7,259,000
74.5%
21.8%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
Departmental Profit
1,241,000
689,000
83,000
2,013,000
29.3%
59.8%
62.9%
36.1%
1,330,000
745,000
93,000
2,168,000
28.4%
57.6%
62.8%
35.0%
1,424,000
804,000
104,000
2,332,000
27.6%
55.7%
63.0%
34.1%
1,478,000
836,000
109,000
2,423,000
28.0%
55.4%
63.0%
34.3%
1,534,000
868,000
114,000
2,516,000
28.4%
55.0%
63.3%
34.7%
Undistributed Expenses
Administrative & General
Marketing
Franchise Fees
Property Operation & Maintenance
Utility Costs
Total Undistributed Operating Expenses
462,000
385,000
381,000
249,000
246,000
1,723,000
8.3%
6.9%
6.8%
4.5%
4.4%
30.9%
495,000
405,000
421,000
265,000
253,000
1,839,000
8.0%
6.5%
6.8%
4.3%
4.1%
29.7%
530,000
426,000
464,000
278,000
261,000
1,959,000
7.7%
6.2%
6.8%
4.1%
3.8%
28.6%
551,000
448,000
476,000
287,000
269,000
2,031,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.8%
568,000
461,000
487,000
295,000
277,000
2,088,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.8%
167,000
3.0%
186,000
3.0%
205,000
3.0%
212,000
3.0%
218,000
3.0%
Departmental Expenses
Rooms
Food & Beverage
Total Departmental Expenses
3,567,000
Gross Operating Profit
1,844,000
Base Management Fee
Fixed Expenses
Property Taxes
Insurance
Total Fixed Expenses
167,000
74,000
241,000
Net Operating Income
FF&E Reserve
Source: Stone HRE
P a g e | 57
3.0%
1.3%
4.3%
2,190,000
186,000
76,000
262,000
65.0%
35.3%
3.0%
1.2%
4.2%
4,512,000
2,553,000
205,000
78,000
283,000
65.9%
37.3%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
4,631,000
2,600,000
212,000
81,000
293,000
65.7%
36.9%
3.0%
1.1%
4.2%
4,743,000
2,655,000
218,000
83,000
301,000
65.3%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
25.7%
1,742,000
28.1%
2,065,000
30.2%
2,095,000
29.7%
2,136,000
29.4%
$1,324,000
23.7%
$1,556,000
25.1%
$1,791,000
26.2%
$1,813,000
25.7%
$1,846,000
25.4%
Full Year of Operation
33.0%
4,029,000
1,436,000
112,000
Net Operating Income After Reserve
63.9%
2.0%
186,000
3.0%
274,000
4.0%
282,000
4.0%
290,000
4.0%
Proposed Hotel-Kyle, TX
Number of Units:
Number of Annual Rooms Available:
Number of Rooms Occupied:
Annual Occupancy:
Average Daily Rate:
Revenue Per Available Room:
Revenues
Rooms
Food & Beverage
Rentals and Other Income
Total Revenues
2022
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$152.00
$101.84
Amount
Ratio
Calendar Years
2023
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$156.50
$104.86
Amount
Ratio
2024
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$161.25
$108.04
Amount
Ratio
2025
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$166.00
$111.22
Amount
Ratio
2026
150
54,750
36,680
67.0%
$171.00
$114.57
Amount
Ratio
$5,575,000
1,626,000
186,000
93,000
7,480,000
74.5%
21.7%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
$5,740,000
1,675,000
191,000
96,000
7,702,000
74.5%
21.7%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
$5,915,000
1,725,000
197,000
99,000
7,936,000
74.5%
21.7%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
$6,089,000
1,777,000
203,000
102,000
8,171,000
74.5%
21.7%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
$6,272,000
1,830,000
209,000
105,000
8,416,000
74.5%
21.7%
2.5%
1.2%
100.0%
Departmental Profit
1,580,000
894,000
117,000
2,591,000
28.3%
55.0%
62.9%
34.6%
1,627,000
921,000
121,000
2,669,000
28.3%
55.0%
63.4%
34.7%
1,676,000
949,000
124,000
2,749,000
28.3%
55.0%
62.9%
34.6%
1,726,000
977,000
128,000
2,831,000
28.3%
55.0%
63.1%
34.6%
1,778,000
1,007,000
132,000
2,917,000
28.3%
55.0%
63.2%
34.7%
Undistributed Expenses
Administrative & General
Marketing
Franchise Fees
Property Operation & Maintenance
Utility Costs
Total Undistributed Operating Expenses
585,000
475,000
502,000
304,000
285,000
2,151,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.8%
602,000
489,000
517,000
313,000
294,000
2,215,000
7.8%
6.3%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.8%
620,000
504,000
532,000
323,000
302,000
2,281,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.7%
639,000
519,000
548,000
332,000
311,000
2,349,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.7%
658,000
535,000
564,000
342,000
321,000
2,420,000
7.8%
6.4%
6.7%
4.1%
3.8%
28.8%
224,000
3.0%
231,000
3.0%
238,000
3.0%
245,000
3.0%
252,000
3.0%
Departmental Expenses
Rooms
Food & Beverage
Base Management Fee
Fixed Expenses
Property Taxes
Insurance
Total Fixed Expenses
Net Operating Income
FF&E Reserve
Net Operating Income After Reserve
Source: Stone HRE
P a g e | 58
4,889,000
2,738,000
224,000
86,000
310,000
65.4%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
5,033,000
2,818,000
231,000
88,000
319,000
65.3%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
5,187,000
2,906,000
238,000
91,000
329,000
65.4%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
5,340,000
2,991,000
245,000
93,000
338,000
65.4%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
5,499,000
3,079,000
252,000
96,000
348,000
65.3%
36.6%
3.0%
1.1%
4.1%
2,204,000
29.5%
2,268,000
29.4%
2,339,000
29.5%
2,408,000
29.5%
2,479,000
29.5%
$1,905,000
25.5%
$1,960,000
25.4%
$2,022,000
25.5%
$2,081,000
25.5%
$2,142,000
25.5%
299,000
4.0%
308,000
4.0%
317,000
4.0%
327,000
4.0%
337,000
4.0%
Concluding Remarks
•
•
•
There is a certain degree of intuitive support for a full-service hotel in Kyle, Texas;
which is, the significant distance between two growing market areas with few fullservice properties present. According to STR, occupancies in the competitive market
indicate that properties are already highly occupied on Monday through Saturday –
resulting in the need for additional full-service rooms to accommodate any new
business to the area.
This report would most certainly need to be updated and revised once a more
concrete development plan for the hotel is presented, or if any ‘new’ developments are
announced that might impact demand, especially corporate business or new office
space, in the market. Also, the time to completion and opening is such that market
conditions may be very different in response to global or regional events.
Further study is recommended should the development concept in this report move
forward. Once a development concept is solidified for the site, we recommend:
o
o
o
An Economic Impact Study to determine the potential benefit the development
will have on the local community;
A Feasibility and Financial GAP Analysis to outline the feasibility of the
project in terms of the type and amount of incentive participation required
by the City of Kyle to secure a developer for the project. This study considers
the incentives available to the City and assists in the determination of an
appropriate monetary equivalent required to complement a developer’s likely
rate of return.
A Conference Center Market Analysis to determine any need for more
extensive meeting facilities in the market area as it pertains to the
surrounding hotels and meeting inventory.
Stone HRE has already included the estimated cost of these studies in the
engagement letter for this study should the project advance to the point they are
necessary.
P a g e | 59
Assumptions & Limiting Conditions
ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITING CONDITIONS
The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting assignments by Stone HRE:
Economic and Social Trends - The consultant assumes no responsibility for economic, physical or demographic
factors which may affect or alter the opinions in this report if said economic, physical, or demographic factors
were not present as of the date of the letter of transmittal accompanying this report. The consultant is not
obligated to predict future political, economic or social trends.
Information Furnished by Others - In preparing the report, the consultant relied on information furnished by
other individuals or found in previously existing records and/or documents. Unless otherwise indicated, such
information is presumed to be reliable. However, no warranty, either express or implied, is given by the
consultant for the accuracy of such information and the consultant assumes no responsibility for information
relied upon later found to have been inaccurate. The consultant reserves the right to make such adjustments to
the analyses, opinions and conclusions set forth in this report as may be required by consideration of additional
data or more reliable data that may become available.
Title - No opinion as to the title of the subject property is rendered. The property is evaluated assuming it to be
under responsible ownership and competent management.
Hidden Conditions - The consultant assumes no responsibility for hidden or unapparent conditions of the
property, subsoil, ground water or structures that render the subject more or less valuable. No responsibility is
assumed for arranging for engineering, geologic or environmental studies that may be required to discover such
hidden or unapparent conditions.
Hazardous Materials - The consultant has not been provided any information regarding the presence of any
material or substance on or in any portion of the subject property or improvements thereon, which material or
substance possesses or may possess toxic, hazardous and/or other harmful and/or dangerous characteristics.
Unless otherwise stated in the report, the consultant did not become aware of the presence of any such material
or substance during the consultant’s inspection of the subject property. However, the consultant is not qualified
to investigate or test for the presence of such materials or substances. Unless otherwise stated, this report
assumes the subject property is in compliance with all federal, state and local environmental laws, regulations and
rules.
Zoning and Land Use - Unless otherwise stated, the subject property is evaluated assuming it to be in full
compliance with all applicable zoning and land use regulations and restrictions.
Licenses and Permits - Unless otherwise stated, the property is evaluated assuming that all required licenses,
permits, certificates, consents or other legislative and/or administrative authority from any local, state or national
government or private entity or organization have been or can be obtained or renewed for any use on which the
analysis contained in this report is based.
Engineering Survey - No engineering survey has been made by the consultant. Except as specifically stated, data
relative to size and area of the subject property was taken from sources considered reliable and no encroachment
of the subject property is considered to exist.
Maps, Plats and Exhibits - Maps, plats and exhibits included in this report are for illustration only to serve as an
aid in visualizing matters discussed within the report. They should not be considered as surveys or relied upon
for any other purpose, nor should they be removed from, reproduced or used apart from the report.
P a g e | 60
Assumptions & Limiting Conditions
Legal Matters - No opinion is intended to be expressed for matters which require legal expertise or specialized
investigation or knowledge beyond that customarily employed by real estate consultants.
Right of Publication - Possession of this report, or a copy of it, does not carry with it the right of publication.
Without the written consent of Stone HRE, this report may not be used for any purpose by any person other than
the party to whom it is addressed. In any event, this report may be used only with properly written qualification
and only in its entirety for its stated purpose.
Testimony in Court - Testimony or attendance in court or at any other hearing is not required by reason of
rendering this report, unless such arrangements are made a reasonable time in advance of said hearing. Further,
unless otherwise indicated, separate arrangements shall be made concerning compensation for the consultant’s
time to prepare for and attend any such hearing.
Income Data Provided by Third Party – Any income and expense data related to the property provided by the
client is assumed, but not warranted, to be accurate.
Asbestos - The consultant is not aware of the existence of asbestos in any improvements on the subject property.
However, the consultant is not trained to discover the presence of asbestos and assumes no responsibility should
asbestos be found in or at the subject property. For the purposes of this report, the consultant assumes the
subject property is free of asbestos and that the subject property meets all federal, state and local laws regarding
asbestos abatement.
Archaeological Significance - No investigation has been made by the consultant and no information has been
provided to the consultant regarding potential archaeological significance of the subject property or any portion
thereof. This report assumes no portion of the subject property has archaeological significance.
Definitions and Assumptions - The definitions and assumptions upon which our analyses, opinions and
conclusions are based are set forth in appropriate sections of this report and are to be part of these general
assumptions as if included here in their entirety.
Dissemination of Material - Neither all nor any part of the contents of this report (including the identity of the
consultant or Jeremy Stone, PhD) shall be disseminated to the general public through advertising or sales media,
public relations media, news media or other public means of communication without the prior written consent
and approval of Stone HRE.
Distribution and Liability to Third Parties - The party for whom this appraisal report was prepared may
distribute copies of this report only in its entirety to such third parties as may be selected by the party for whom
this report was prepared; however, portions of this report shall not be given to third parties without the written
consent of Stone HRE. Liability to third parties will not be accepted.
Use in Offering Materials - This report, including all cash flow forecasts, market surveys and related data,
conclusions, exhibits and supporting documentation may not be reproduced or references made to the report or
to Stone HRE in any sales offering, prospectus, public or private placement memorandum, proxy statement or
other document (“Offering Material”) in connection with a merger, liquidation or other corporate transaction
unless Jeremy Stone, PhD has approved in writing the text of any such reference or reproduction prior to the
distribution and filing thereof.
Limits of Liability – Stone HRE cannot be held liable in any cause of action resulting in litigation for any dollar
amount which exceeds the total fees collected from this individual engagement.
P a g e | 61
Certification
CERTIFICATION
The undersigned certifies that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
the statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct;
the reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported
assumptions and limiting conditions, and are my personal, impartial, and unbiased
professional analyses, opinions, conclusions, and recommendations;
I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this
report, and I have no personal interest with respect to the parties involved;
I have no bias with respect to any property that is the subject of this report or to the
parties involved with this assignment;
my engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon developing or reporting
predetermined results;
my compensation for completing this assignment is not contingent upon the
development or reporting of predetermined results or a direction in results that
favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence
of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this market study;
Jeremy Stone, PhD made a personal inspection of the property area that is the subject
of this report.
Stone Hospitality & Real Estate,
Jeremy Stone, PhD
P a g e | 62
Addenda
Addenda
Addenda
ADDENDA
Smith Travel Research Data ........................................................................................................... A
Other Market Data ............................................................................................................................. B
Engagement Letter ............................................................................................................................ C
Qualifications ..................................................................................................................................... D
Addendum A
ADDENDUM A
Smith Travel Research Data
United Kingdom
Blue Fin Building
110 Southwark Street
London SE1 0TA
Phone: +44 (0)20 7922 1930
Fax: +44 (0)20 7922 1931
www.strglobal.com
United States
735 East Main Street
Hendersonville
TN 37075
Phone: +1 (615) 824 8664
Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848
www.str.com
kyle area - upscale #2 - Austin, TX Area Selected Properties
January 2009 to June 2015
Job Number: 698165_SADIM
Currency: USD - US Dollar
Tab
Table of Contents
1
Data by Measure
2
Percent Change by Measure
3
Percent Change by Year
4
Twelve Month Moving Average
5
Twelve Month Moving Average with Percent Change
6
Day of Week Analysis
7
Raw Data
8
Classic
9
Response Report
10
Help
11
Terms and Conditions
12
Staff: SS
Created: July 30, 2015
Tab 8 - Raw Data
Job Number: 698165_SADIM Staff: SS Created: July 30, 2015
Date
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
57.6
68.4
74.2
64.5
58.9
73.4
69.2
61.9
60.7
72.9
60.8
48.6
52.7
-8.6
73.9
8.2
79.8
7.6
70.4
9.1
64.8
9.9
69.7
-5.0
74.1
7.2
68.4
10.5
64.1
5.6
69.3
-4.9
65.3
7.5
49.8
2.5
55.3
5.1
68.7
-7.2
80.6
1.0
72.6
3.0
69.6
7.4
74.7
7.3
77.0
3.9
71.6
4.7
72.1
12.4
74.6
7.7
67.5
3.4
51.9
4.2
57.4
3.7
71.1
3.6
83.0
3.0
79.1
9.0
75.6
8.6
79.6
6.5
73.2
-5.0
74.4
4.0
71.4
-0.9
81.3
8.9
72.4
7.2
56.9
9.7
61.4
7.0
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
113.51
112.77
117.43
113.00
109.09
107.03
102.95
102.54
106.99
109.46
104.15
99.91
104.16
-8.2
108.48
-3.8
117.25
-0.1
109.01
-3.5
108.73
-0.3
112.59
5.2
109.71
6.6
107.05
4.4
109.14
2.0
110.75
1.2
106.09
1.9
99.31
-0.6
107.22
2.9
112.52
3.7
129.73
10.6
115.12
5.6
112.41
3.4
111.33
-1.1
110.07
0.3
110.88
3.6
114.76
5.1
119.34
7.8
112.57
6.1
101.28
2.0
113.58
5.9
116.36
3.4
144.68
11.5
119.02
3.4
120.28
7.0
120.35
8.1
116.83
6.1
113.94
2.8
118.27
3.1
127.41
6.8
157.92
40.3
114.08
12.6
115.88
2.0
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
65.39
77.08
87.11
72.94
64.26
78.54
71.19
63.45
64.98
79.76
63.31
48.55
54.84
-16.1
80.22
4.1
93.56
7.4
76.77
5.3
70.41
9.6
78.44
-0.1
81.30
14.2
73.23
15.4
69.99
7.7
76.76
-3.8
69.31
9.5
49.47
1.9
59.32
8.2
77.25
-3.7
104.56
11.8
83.52
8.8
78.19
11.1
83.21
6.1
84.74
4.2
79.40
8.4
82.69
18.2
89.05
16.0
76.04
9.7
52.56
6.2
65.16
9.8
82.74
7.1
120.07
14.8
94.08
12.6
90.90
16.3
95.84
15.2
85.48
0.9
84.82
6.8
84.43
2.1
103.55
16.3
114.38
50.4
64.95
23.6
71.15
9.2
Supply
This Year
33,604
30,352
33,604
32,520
33,604
32,520
37,479
37,479
36,270
37,479
36,270
37,479
37,479
33,852
37,479
36,270
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
Demand
% Chg
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
21.0
21.0
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
19,359
20,747
24,928
20,990
19,794
23,862
25,917
23,193
22,027
27,310
22,046
18,210
19,734
25,033
29,904
25,543
26,339
27,423
30,139
27,823
25,240
28,190
25,714
20,259
22,502
25,220
32,781
28,558
28,292
29,419
31,311
29,122
28,362
30,350
26,585
21,104
23,333
26,122
33,754
31,115
30,739
31,344
29,757
30,277
28,100
33,058
28,508
23,155
24,972
Revenue
% Chg
1.9
20.7
20.0
21.7
33.1
14.9
16.3
20.0
14.6
3.2
16.6
11.3
14.0
0.7
9.6
11.8
7.4
7.3
3.9
4.7
12.4
7.7
3.4
4.2
3.7
3.6
3.0
9.0
8.6
6.5
-5.0
4.0
-0.9
8.9
7.2
9.7
7.0
This Year
2,197,436
2,339,578
2,927,251
2,371,967
2,159,236
2,554,013
2,668,159
2,378,216
2,356,742
2,989,390
2,296,113
1,819,435
2,055,517
2,715,493
3,506,359
2,784,510
2,863,736
3,087,555
3,306,614
2,978,576
2,754,681
3,122,124
2,727,972
2,011,927
2,412,775
2,837,674
4,252,681
3,287,471
3,180,277
3,275,245
3,446,343
3,229,163
3,254,802
3,621,919
2,992,749
2,137,517
2,650,103
3,039,662
4,883,563
3,703,162
3,697,236
3,772,298
3,476,459
3,449,814
3,323,350
4,211,771
4,502,117
2,641,456
2,893,675
% Chg Census Props
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
-6.5
7
16.1
7
19.8
7
17.4
7
32.6
8
20.9
8
23.9
8
25.2
8
16.9
8
4.4
8
18.8
8
10.6
8
17.4
8
4.5
8
21.3
8
18.1
8
11.1
8
6.1
8
4.2
8
8.4
8
18.2
8
16.0
8
9.7
8
6.2
8
9.8
8
7.1
8
14.8
8
12.6
8
16.3
8
15.2
8
0.9
8
6.8
8
2.1
8
16.3
8
50.4
8
23.6
8
9.2
8
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Participants
Census Rooms
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
Tab 8 - Raw Data
Date
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
76.6
7.7
84.3
1.6
81.5
3.1
75.8
0.4
79.0
-0.8
75.3
2.9
77.4
4.0
73.6
3.1
78.5
-3.4
76.7
5.8
61.2
7.4
65.9
7.3
80.4
5.1
86.5
2.5
86.4
6.0
79.8
5.3
85.3
8.0
85.9
14.0
81.1
4.8
76.7
4.3
85.2
8.4
76.1
-0.7
62.1
1.5
67.9
3.2
78.3
-2.7
85.5
-1.1
83.8
-3.0
80.9
1.4
88.1
3.2
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
125.79
8.1
152.21
5.2
128.03
7.6
128.24
6.6
126.82
5.4
123.58
5.8
121.83
6.9
129.31
9.3
131.32
3.1
156.37
-1.0
111.68
-2.1
118.39
2.2
128.93
2.5
158.69
4.3
132.52
3.5
129.83
1.2
130.57
2.9
128.00
3.6
125.77
3.2
135.79
5.0
148.73
13.3
145.07
-7.2
113.46
1.6
125.82
6.3
139.33
8.1
166.96
5.2
141.44
6.7
140.48
8.2
140.68
7.7
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
96.32
16.4
128.39
6.9
104.32
10.9
97.27
7.0
100.17
4.5
93.05
8.9
94.29
11.2
95.15
12.7
103.13
-0.4
119.86
4.8
68.32
5.2
77.96
9.6
103.71
7.7
137.22
6.9
114.45
9.7
103.65
6.6
111.42
11.2
109.89
18.1
102.00
8.2
104.18
9.5
126.67
22.8
110.38
-7.9
70.44
3.1
85.49
9.6
109.06
5.1
142.77
4.0
118.55
3.6
113.67
9.7
123.95
11.2
Supply
This Year
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
Demand
% Chg
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
28,130
34,306
32,071
30,847
31,089
30,624
31,478
28,962
31,941
30,171
24,879
26,784
29,551
35,170
33,993
32,470
33,589
34,918
32,985
30,197
34,639
29,947
25,250
27,635
28,754
34,779
32,990
32,910
34,680
% Chg
7.7
1.6
3.1
0.4
-0.8
2.9
4.0
3.1
-3.4
5.8
7.4
7.3
5.1
2.5
6.0
5.3
8.0
14.0
4.8
4.3
8.4
-0.7
1.5
3.2
-2.7
-1.1
-3.0
1.4
3.2
Revenue
This Year
3,538,405
5,221,808
4,106,168
3,955,971
3,942,845
3,784,550
3,834,911
3,745,199
4,194,406
4,717,835
2,778,547
3,170,957
3,810,067
5,581,208
4,504,761
4,215,601
4,385,560
4,469,585
4,148,496
4,100,375
5,151,920
4,344,410
2,864,811
3,476,919
4,006,246
5,806,725
4,666,248
4,623,248
4,878,701
% Chg Census Props
16.4
8
6.9
8
10.9
8
7.0
8
4.5
8
8.9
8
11.2
8
12.7
8
-0.4
8
4.8
8
5.2
8
9.6
8
7.7
8
6.9
8
9.7
8
6.6
8
11.2
8
18.1
8
8.2
8
9.5
8
22.8
8
-7.9
8
3.1
8
9.6
8
5.1
8
4.0
8
3.6
8
9.7
8
11.2
8
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Participants
Census Rooms
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
1,312
100.0
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Tab 9 - Classic
Date
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jun YTD 2009
Total 2009
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jun YTD 2010
Total 2010
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jun YTD 2011
Total 2011
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
57.6
68.4
74.2
64.5
58.9
73.4
69.2
61.9
60.7
72.9
60.8
48.6
66.1
64.1
52.7
-8.6
73.9
8.2
79.8
7.6
70.4
9.1
64.8
9.9
69.7
-5.0
74.1
7.2
68.4
10.5
64.1
5.6
69.3
-4.9
65.3
7.5
49.8
2.5
68.4
3.5
66.7
4.1
55.3
5.1
68.7
-7.2
80.6
1.0
72.6
3.0
69.6
7.4
74.7
7.3
77.0
3.9
71.6
4.7
72.1
12.4
74.6
7.7
67.5
3.4
51.9
4.2
70.2
2.7
69.7
4.4
57.4
3.7
71.1
3.6
83.0
3.0
79.1
9.0
75.6
8.6
79.6
6.5
73.2
-5.0
74.4
4.0
71.4
-0.9
81.3
8.9
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
113.51
112.77
117.43
113.00
109.09
107.03
102.95
102.54
106.99
109.46
104.15
99.91
112.20
108.27
104.16
-8.2
108.48
-3.8
117.25
-0.1
109.01
-3.5
108.73
-0.3
112.59
5.2
109.71
6.6
107.05
4.4
109.14
2.0
110.75
1.2
106.09
1.9
99.31
-0.6
110.49
-1.5
108.93
0.6
107.22
2.9
112.52
3.7
129.73
10.6
115.12
5.6
112.41
3.4
111.33
-1.1
110.07
0.3
110.88
3.6
114.76
5.1
119.34
7.8
112.57
6.1
101.28
2.0
115.40
4.4
113.69
4.4
113.58
5.9
116.36
3.4
144.68
11.5
119.02
3.4
120.28
7.0
120.35
8.1
116.83
6.1
113.94
2.8
118.27
3.1
127.41
6.8
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
65.39
77.08
87.11
72.94
64.26
78.54
71.19
63.45
64.98
79.76
63.31
48.55
74.15
69.41
54.84
-16.1
80.22
4.1
93.56
7.4
76.77
5.3
70.41
9.6
78.44
-0.1
81.30
14.2
73.23
15.4
69.99
7.7
76.76
-3.8
69.31
9.5
49.47
1.9
75.58
1.9
72.70
4.7
59.32
8.2
77.25
-3.7
104.56
11.8
83.52
8.8
78.19
11.1
83.21
6.1
84.74
4.2
79.40
8.4
82.69
18.2
89.05
16.0
76.04
9.7
52.56
6.2
81.05
7.2
79.20
8.9
65.16
9.8
82.74
7.1
120.07
14.8
94.08
12.6
90.90
16.3
95.84
15.2
85.48
0.9
84.82
6.8
84.43
2.1
103.55
16.3
Supply
This Year
33,604
30,352
33,604
32,520
33,604
32,520
37,479
37,479
36,270
37,479
36,270
37,479
196,204
418,660
37,479
33,852
37,479
36,270
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
225,112
466,520
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
237,472
478,880
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
Demand
% Chg
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
21.0
21.0
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
14.7
11.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.5
2.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
19,359
20,747
24,928
20,990
19,794
23,862
25,917
23,193
22,027
27,310
22,046
18,210
129,680
268,383
19,734
25,033
29,904
25,543
26,339
27,423
30,139
27,823
25,240
28,190
25,714
20,259
153,976
311,341
22,502
25,220
32,781
28,558
28,292
29,419
31,311
29,122
28,362
30,350
26,585
21,104
166,772
333,606
23,333
26,122
33,754
31,115
30,739
31,344
29,757
30,277
28,100
33,058
Revenue
% Chg
1.9
20.7
20.0
21.7
33.1
14.9
16.3
20.0
14.6
3.2
16.6
11.3
18.7
16.0
14.0
0.7
9.6
11.8
7.4
7.3
3.9
4.7
12.4
7.7
3.4
4.2
8.3
7.2
3.7
3.6
3.0
9.0
8.6
6.5
-5.0
4.0
-0.9
8.9
This Year
2,197,436
2,339,578
2,927,251
2,371,967
2,159,236
2,554,013
2,668,159
2,378,216
2,356,742
2,989,390
2,296,113
1,819,435
14,549,481
29,057,536
2,055,517
2,715,493
3,506,359
2,784,510
2,863,736
3,087,555
3,306,614
2,978,576
2,754,681
3,122,124
2,727,972
2,011,927
17,013,170
33,915,064
2,412,775
2,837,674
4,252,681
3,287,471
3,180,277
3,275,245
3,446,343
3,229,163
3,254,802
3,621,919
2,992,749
2,137,517
19,246,123
37,928,616
2,650,103
3,039,662
4,883,563
3,703,162
3,697,236
3,772,298
3,476,459
3,449,814
3,323,350
4,211,771
% Chg Census Props
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
-6.5
16.1
19.8
17.4
32.6
20.9
23.9
25.2
16.9
4.4
18.8
10.6
16.9
16.7
17.4
4.5
21.3
18.1
11.1
6.1
4.2
8.4
18.2
16.0
9.7
6.2
13.1
11.8
9.8
7.1
14.8
12.6
16.3
15.2
0.9
6.8
2.1
16.3
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Census Rooms
Participants
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,084
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
1,209
100.0
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1,209
1,209
1,209
1,209
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
1,312
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Tab 9 - Classic
Date
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jun YTD 2012
Total 2012
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jun YTD 2013
Total 2013
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jun YTD 2014
Total 2014
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jun YTD 2015
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
72.4
7.2
56.9
9.7
74.3
5.8
72.9
4.7
61.4
7.0
76.6
7.7
84.3
1.6
81.5
3.1
75.8
0.4
79.0
-0.8
75.3
2.9
77.4
4.0
73.6
3.1
78.5
-3.4
76.7
5.8
61.2
7.4
76.4
2.8
75.1
2.9
65.9
7.3
80.4
5.1
86.5
2.5
86.4
6.0
79.8
5.3
85.3
8.0
85.9
14.0
81.1
4.8
76.7
4.3
85.2
8.4
76.1
-0.7
62.1
1.5
80.7
5.6
79.2
5.6
67.9
3.2
78.3
-2.7
85.5
-1.1
83.8
-3.0
80.9
1.4
88.1
3.2
80.7
0.1
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
157.92
40.3
114.08
12.6
123.27
6.8
124.12
9.2
115.88
2.0
125.79
8.1
152.21
5.2
128.03
7.6
128.24
6.6
126.82
5.4
123.58
5.8
121.83
6.9
129.31
9.3
131.32
3.1
156.37
-1.0
111.68
-2.1
130.41
5.8
129.95
4.7
118.39
2.2
128.93
2.5
158.69
4.3
132.52
3.5
129.83
1.2
130.57
2.9
128.00
3.6
125.77
3.2
135.79
5.0
148.73
13.3
145.07
-7.2
113.46
1.6
134.00
2.7
133.73
2.9
125.82
6.3
139.33
8.1
166.96
5.2
141.44
6.7
140.48
8.2
140.68
7.7
143.20
6.9
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
114.38
50.4
64.95
23.6
91.57
13.0
90.53
14.3
71.15
9.2
96.32
16.4
128.39
6.9
104.32
10.9
97.27
7.0
100.17
4.5
93.05
8.9
94.29
11.2
95.15
12.7
103.13
-0.4
119.86
4.8
68.32
5.2
99.63
8.8
97.55
7.8
77.96
9.6
103.71
7.7
137.22
6.9
114.45
9.7
103.65
6.6
111.42
11.2
109.89
18.1
102.00
8.2
104.18
9.5
126.67
22.8
110.38
-7.9
70.44
3.1
108.09
8.5
105.97
8.6
85.49
9.6
109.06
5.1
142.77
4.0
118.55
3.6
113.67
9.7
123.95
11.2
115.63
7.0
Supply
This Year
39,360
40,672
237,472
478,880
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
237,472
478,880
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
40,672
237,472
478,880
40,672
36,736
40,672
39,360
40,672
39,360
237,472
Demand
% Chg
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
28,508
23,155
176,407
349,262
24,972
28,130
34,306
32,071
30,847
31,089
30,624
31,478
28,962
31,941
30,171
24,879
181,415
359,470
26,784
29,551
35,170
33,993
32,470
33,589
34,918
32,985
30,197
34,639
29,947
25,250
191,557
379,493
27,635
28,754
34,779
32,990
32,910
34,680
191,748
Revenue
% Chg
7.2
9.7
5.8
4.7
7.0
7.7
1.6
3.1
0.4
-0.8
2.9
4.0
3.1
-3.4
5.8
7.4
2.8
2.9
7.3
5.1
2.5
6.0
5.3
8.0
14.0
4.8
4.3
8.4
-0.7
1.5
5.6
5.6
3.2
-2.7
-1.1
-3.0
1.4
3.2
0.1
This Year
4,502,117
2,641,456
21,746,024
43,350,991
2,893,675
3,538,405
5,221,808
4,106,168
3,955,971
3,942,845
3,784,550
3,834,911
3,745,199
4,194,406
4,717,835
2,778,547
23,658,872
46,714,320
3,170,957
3,810,067
5,581,208
4,504,761
4,215,601
4,385,560
4,469,585
4,148,496
4,100,375
5,151,920
4,344,410
2,864,811
25,668,154
50,747,751
3,476,919
4,006,246
5,806,725
4,666,248
4,623,248
4,878,701
27,458,087
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
% Chg Census Props Census Rooms
Participants
50.4
8
1,312
100.0
23.6
8
1,312
100.0
13.0
14.3
9.2
8
1,312
100.0
16.4
8
1,312
100.0
6.9
8
1,312
100.0
10.9
8
1,312
100.0
7.0
8
1,312
100.0
4.5
8
1,312
100.0
8.9
8
1,312
100.0
11.2
8
1,312
100.0
12.7
8
1,312
100.0
-0.4
8
1,312
100.0
4.8
8
1,312
100.0
5.2
8
1,312
100.0
8.8
7.8
9.6
8
1,312
100.0
7.7
8
1,312
100.0
6.9
8
1,312
100.0
9.7
8
1,312
100.0
6.6
8
1,312
100.0
11.2
8
1,312
100.0
18.1
8
1,312
100.0
8.2
8
1,312
100.0
9.5
8
1,312
100.0
22.8
8
1,312
100.0
-7.9
8
1,312
100.0
3.1
8
1,312
100.0
8.5
8.6
9.6
8
1,312
100.0
5.1
8
1,312
100.0
4.0
8
1,312
100.0
3.6
8
1,312
100.0
9.7
8
1,312
100.0
11.2
8
1,312
100.0
7.0
STR’s Trend Report is a publication of STR, Inc. and is intended solely for use by paid subscribers. Reproduction or distribution of the Trend Report, in whole or part, without written permission of STR is prohibited and
subject to legal action. Site licenses are available. Ownership, distribution and use of the Trend Report and its contents are subject to the terms set forth in the contract you have entered into with STR. Source 2015
STR, Inc.
Tab 10 - Response Report
2013
STR Code
59769
60317
57877
41604
33990
31440
42744
41442
Name of Establishment
City & State
Courtyard New Braunfels River Village
New Braunfels, TX
Hilton Garden Inn New Braunfels
New Braunfels, TX
Embassy Suites San Marcos Hotel Spa & Conference Cen San Marcos, TX
Hilton Austin Airport
Austin, TX
Residence Inn Austin South
Austin, TX
Courtyard Austin South
Austin, TX
Marriott Austin South
Austin, TX
Springhill Suites Austin South
Austin, TX
Zip Code
78130
78130
78666
78719
78744
78744
78744
78744
Class
Upscale Class
Upscale Class
Upper Upscale Class
Upper Upscale Class
Upscale Class
Upscale Class
Upper Upscale Class
Upscale Class
Aff Date
Jul 2009
May 2010
Oct 2008
Jan 2001
Oct 1996
Dec 1996
Aug 2001
Dec 2000
Total Properties:
Open
Date
Rooms
Jul 2009
125
May 2010
103
Oct 2008
283
Jan 2001
262
Oct 1996
66
Dec 1996
110
Aug 2001
211
Dec 2000
152
8
1312
Chg in
Rms
Y
Y
2014
2015
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
○ - Monthly data received by STR
● - Monthly and daily data received by STR
Blank - No data received by STR
Y - (Chg in Rms) Property has experienced a room addition or drop during the time period of the report.
STR’s Trend Report is a publication of STR, Inc. and is intended solely for use by paid subscribers. Reproduction or distribution of the Trend Report, in whole or part, without written permission of STR is prohibited and subject to legal action. Site licenses are available. Ownership, distribution and use of the
Trend Report and its contents are subject to the terms set forth in the contract you have entered into with STR. Source 2015 STR, Inc.
Tab 11 - Help
Methodology
While virtually every chain in the United States provides STR with data on almost all of their properties, there are still some hotels that don't submit data. But we've got you covered.
Every year we examine guidebook listings and hotel directories for information on hotels that don't provide us with data. We don't stop there. We call each hotel in our database every year to
obtain "published" rates for multiple categories. Based on this information we group all hotels - those that report data and those that don't - into groupings based off of price level and geographic
proximity. We then estimate the non-respondents based off of nearby hotels with similar price levels.
Similarly, we sometimes obtain monthly data from a property, but not daily data. We use a similar process. We take the monthly data that the property has provided, and distribute it to the
individual days based on the revenue and demand distribution patterns of similar hotels in the same location.
We believe it imperative to perform this analysis in order to provide interested parties with our best estimate of total lodging demand and room revenue on their areas of interest. Armed with this
information a more informed decision can be made.
Glossary
ADR (Average Daily Rate)
Room revenue divided by rooms sold, displayed as the average rental rate for a
single room.
Affiliation Date
Date the property affiliated with current chain/flag
Census (Properties and Rooms)
The number of properties and rooms that exist within the selected property set
or segment.
Change in Rooms
Indicator of whether or not an individual hotel has added or removed rooms from
their inventory.
Exchange Rate
The factor used to convert revenue from U.S. Dollars to the local currency.
The exchange rate data is obtained from Oanda.com. Any aggregated number
in the report (YTD, Running 3 month, Running 12 month) uses the exchange
rate of each relative month when calculating the data.
Open Date
Date the property opened as a lodging establishment.
Percent Change
Amount of growth, up, flat, or down from the same period last year (month, ytd, three
months, twelve months). Calculated as ((TY-LY)/LY) * "100".
Revenue (Room Revenue)
Total room revenue generated from the sale or rental of rooms.
RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room)
Room revenue divided by rooms available
Sample % (Rooms)
The % of rooms from which STR receives data. Calculated as (Sample
Rooms/Census Rooms) * "100".
Standard Historical Trend
Data on selected properties or segments starting in 2005.
STR Code
Extended Historical Trend
Smith Travel Research's proprietary numbering system. Each hotel in the lodging
census has a unique STR code.
Demand (Rooms Sold)
The number of rooms sold (excludes complimentary rooms).
Supply (Rooms Available)
The number of rooms times the number of days in the period.
Full Historical Trend
The value of any given month is computed by taking the value of that month and the
values of the eleven preceding months, adding them together and dividing by twelve.
Occupancy
Rooms sold divided by rooms available. Occupancy is always displayed as a
percentage of rooms occupied.
Year to Date
Tab 12 - Terms and Conditions
Before purchasing this product you agreed to the following terms and conditions.
In consideration of the mutual promises contained herein and for other good and valuable consideration, the receipt and sufficiency of which are hereby acknowledged, STR, Inc. ("STR"), STR Global, Ltd. ("STRG"), and the licensee identified elsewhere in this Agreement
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1. LICENSE
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(b) "Licensed Materials" means the newsletters, reports, databases or other information resources, and all lodging industry data contained therein, provided to Licensee hereunder.
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United Kingdom
Blue Fin Building
London SE1 0TA
Phone: +44 (0)20 7922 1930
Fax: +44 (0)20 7922 1931
www.strglobal.com
United States
Hendersonville
TN 37075
Phone: +1 (615) 824 8664
Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848
www.str.com
near Kyle - midscale #1 - San Marcos, TX Area Selected Properties
August 2009 to June 2015
Job Number: 698169_SADIM
Currency: USD - US Dollar
Tab
Table of Contents
1
Data by Measure
2
Percent Change by Measure
3
Percent Change by Year
4
5
Twelve Month Moving Average with Percent Change
6
Day of Week Analysis
7
Raw Data
8
Classic
9
Response Report
10
Help
11
Terms and Conditions
12
Staff: SS
Created: July 30, 2015
Tab 8 - Raw Data
Date
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
57.5
47.2
53.3
53.9
42.6
39.9
48.3
64.1
58.5
53.6
63.8
69.6
58.4
1.5
57.3
21.3
59.1
11.0
55.2
2.2
48.6
14.0
43.3
8.4
57.1
18.2
70.4
9.8
62.9
7.5
65.0
21.3
68.4
7.1
74.6
7.3
66.3
13.6
60.9
6.3
67.7
14.5
62.2
12.8
51.4
5.9
46.7
7.9
61.4
7.7
73.3
4.1
71.1
13.0
68.0
4.6
72.8
6.5
77.9
4.3
69.3
4.5
61.6
1.1
68.2
0.7
55.4
-10.9
48.9
-5.0
47.6
1.8
64.7
5.4
73.8
0.7
73.6
3.5
67.2
-1.2
70.6
-2.9
70.2
-9.8
69.7
0.7
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
99.23
93.13
92.00
91.15
89.20
88.06
91.80
95.86
95.51
96.25
97.62
101.16
98.80
-0.4
91.89
-1.3
93.26
1.4
94.08
3.2
92.26
3.4
87.28
-0.9
92.33
0.6
104.02
8.5
98.28
2.9
97.15
0.9
97.35
-0.3
101.47
0.3
98.36
-0.4
94.42
2.7
95.43
2.3
95.26
1.3
93.00
0.8
90.68
3.9
92.11
-0.2
112.41
8.1
99.70
1.4
100.98
3.9
101.56
4.3
101.28
-0.2
99.71
1.4
98.32
4.1
101.74
6.6
115.61
21.4
93.31
0.3
89.73
-1.1
94.19
2.3
113.73
1.2
105.20
5.5
112.48
11.4
110.88
9.2
111.27
9.9
108.28
8.6
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
57.06
43.99
49.00
49.18
38.01
35.16
44.33
61.43
55.90
51.60
62.33
70.40
57.67
1.1
52.67
19.7
55.14
12.5
51.90
5.5
44.81
17.9
37.77
7.4
52.68
18.8
73.20
19.2
61.82
10.6
63.17
22.4
66.55
6.8
75.73
7.6
65.20
13.1
57.53
9.2
64.60
17.2
59.27
14.2
47.84
6.8
42.36
12.2
56.59
7.4
82.36
12.5
70.86
14.6
68.70
8.8
73.92
11.1
78.87
4.1
69.05
5.9
60.55
5.2
69.38
7.4
64.06
8.1
45.59
-4.7
42.67
0.8
60.98
7.8
83.92
1.9
77.38
9.2
75.63
10.1
78.33
6.0
78.13
-0.9
75.51
9.4
Supply
This Year
13,919
13,470
13,919
13,470
16,151
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
18,030
18,631
18,631
16,828
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
Demand
% Chg
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
This Year
8,004
6,362
7,413
7,267
6,883
6,449
7,044
10,350
9,148
8,659
9,979
11,239
9,427
8,958
9,549
8,622
7,844
6,989
8,324
11,365
9,832
10,501
10,684
12,054
10,706
9,524
10,933
9,726
8,309
7,544
8,963
11,833
11,108
10,988
11,377
12,577
11,185
9,625
11,014
9,991
9,103
8,861
10,895
13,748
13,262
12,527
12,737
13,082
12,993
Revenue
% Chg
17.8
40.8
28.8
18.6
14.0
8.4
18.2
9.8
7.5
21.3
7.1
7.3
13.6
6.3
14.5
12.8
5.9
7.9
7.7
4.1
13.0
4.6
6.5
4.3
4.5
1.1
0.7
2.7
9.6
17.5
21.6
16.2
19.4
14.0
12.0
4.0
16.2
This Year
794,219
592,495
681,997
662,393
613,975
567,890
646,649
992,105
873,702
833,411
974,183
1,136,965
931,385
823,170
890,549
811,149
723,669
609,977
768,523
1,182,197
966,293
1,020,220
1,040,121
1,223,100
1,053,037
899,239
1,043,304
926,467
772,741
684,111
825,553
1,330,173
1,107,495
1,109,517
1,155,433
1,273,826
1,115,306
946,326
1,120,516
1,155,028
849,417
795,077
1,026,153
1,563,565
1,395,109
1,409,074
1,412,331
1,455,615
1,406,868
% Chg Census Props
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
17.3
7
38.9
7
30.6
7
22.5
7
17.9
7
7.4
7
18.8
7
19.2
7
10.6
7
22.4
7
6.8
7
7.6
7
13.1
7
9.2
7
17.2
7
14.2
7
6.8
7
12.2
7
7.4
7
12.5
7
14.6
7
8.8
7
11.1
7
4.1
7
5.9
7
5.2
7
7.4
7
24.7
8
9.9
8
16.2
8
24.3
8
17.5
8
26.0
8
27.0
8
22.2
8
14.3
8
26.1
8
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Participants
Census Rooms
449
71.9
449
88.9
449
88.9
449
88.9
521
90.4
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
100.0
521
90.4
521
90.4
521
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
Tab 8 - Raw Data
Date
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
60.6
-1.5
62.2
-8.8
68.3
23.2
56.5
15.6
55.0
15.7
71.1
9.9
78.5
6.4
73.8
0.3
68.8
2.4
76.3
8.1
76.3
8.6
74.2
6.4
64.0
5.6
70.9
14.0
66.6
-2.4
55.8
-1.3
60.7
10.3
71.6
0.7
76.9
-2.1
75.9
2.8
76.2
10.8
86.9
13.8
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
108.26
10.1
111.28
9.4
124.50
7.7
95.43
2.3
100.60
12.1
111.43
18.3
130.71
14.9
120.56
14.6
119.08
5.9
114.87
3.6
112.44
1.1
110.94
2.5
107.52
-0.7
114.14
2.6
112.71
-9.5
100.02
4.8
96.35
-4.2
103.20
-7.4
117.89
-9.8
109.90
-8.8
111.62
-6.3
110.04
-4.2
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
65.64
8.4
69.19
-0.3
84.99
32.7
53.92
18.3
55.35
29.7
79.27
30.0
102.61
22.3
88.92
14.9
81.95
8.4
87.69
12.0
85.77
9.8
82.34
9.0
68.86
4.9
80.89
16.9
75.08
-11.7
55.80
3.5
58.46
5.6
73.92
-6.8
90.64
-11.7
83.37
-6.2
85.11
3.8
95.64
9.1
Supply
This Year
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
16,828
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
16,828
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
Demand
% Chg
15.4
15.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
10,932
11,585
12,308
10,527
10,250
11,972
14,626
13,299
12,822
13,765
14,213
13,828
11,548
13,203
12,010
10,393
11,305
12,054
14,325
13,678
14,206
15,670
% Chg
13.6
5.2
23.2
15.6
15.7
9.9
6.4
0.3
2.4
8.1
8.6
6.4
5.6
14.0
-2.4
-1.3
10.3
0.7
-2.1
2.8
10.8
13.8
Revenue
This Year
1,183,511
1,289,170
1,532,354
1,004,569
1,031,192
1,333,996
1,911,701
1,603,311
1,526,873
1,581,133
1,598,073
1,534,041
1,241,599
1,506,979
1,353,646
1,039,557
1,089,217
1,243,932
1,688,725
1,503,169
1,585,652
1,724,389
% Chg Census Props
25.1
8
15.1
8
32.7
8
18.3
8
29.7
8
30.0
8
22.3
8
14.9
8
8.4
8
12.0
8
9.8
8
9.0
8
4.9
8
16.9
8
-11.7
8
3.5
8
5.6
8
-6.8
8
-11.7
8
-6.2
8
3.8
8
9.1
8
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Participants
Census Rooms
601
74.0
601
82.4
601
74.0
601
74.0
601
74.0
601
74.0
601
74.0
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
601
100.0
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Tab 9 - Classic
Date
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jun YTD 2009
Total 2009
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jun YTD 2010
Total 2010
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jun YTD 2011
Total 2011
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jun YTD 2012
Total 2012
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
57.5
47.2
53.3
53.9
42.6
39.9
48.3
64.1
58.5
53.6
63.8
69.6
58.4
57.3
59.1
55.2
48.6
54.7
56.4
43.3
57.1
70.4
62.9
65.0
68.4
74.6
66.3
60.9
67.7
62.2
51.4
61.2
62.5
46.7
61.4
73.3
71.1
68.0
72.8
77.9
69.3
61.6
68.2
55.4
48.9
65.5
64.2
47.6
64.7
73.8
1.5
21.3
11.0
2.2
14.0
8.4
18.2
9.8
7.5
21.3
7.1
7.3
13.6
6.3
14.5
12.8
5.9
11.7
10.9
7.9
7.7
4.1
13.0
4.6
6.5
4.3
4.5
1.1
0.7
-10.9
-5.0
7.1
2.7
1.8
5.4
0.7
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
99.23
93.13
92.00
91.15
89.20
88.06
91.80
95.86
95.51
96.25
97.62
101.16
98.80
91.89
93.26
94.08
92.26
94.67
95.13
87.28
92.33
104.02
98.28
97.15
97.35
101.47
98.36
94.42
95.43
95.26
93.00
96.84
96.73
90.68
92.11
112.41
99.70
100.98
101.56
101.28
99.71
98.32
101.74
115.61
93.31
100.50
101.13
89.73
94.19
113.73
-0.4
-1.3
1.4
3.2
3.4
-0.9
0.6
8.5
2.9
0.9
-0.3
0.3
-0.4
2.7
2.3
1.3
0.8
2.3
1.7
3.9
-0.2
8.1
1.4
3.9
4.3
-0.2
1.4
4.1
6.6
21.4
0.3
3.8
4.6
-1.1
2.3
1.2
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
57.06
43.99
49.00
49.18
38.01
35.16
44.33
61.43
55.90
51.60
62.33
70.40
57.67
52.67
55.14
51.90
44.81
51.83
53.66
37.77
52.68
73.20
61.82
63.17
66.55
75.73
65.20
57.53
64.60
59.27
47.84
59.25
60.50
42.36
56.59
82.36
70.86
68.70
73.92
78.87
69.05
60.55
69.38
64.06
45.59
65.88
64.97
42.67
60.98
83.92
1.1
19.7
12.5
5.5
17.9
7.4
18.8
19.2
10.6
22.4
6.8
7.6
13.1
9.2
17.2
14.2
6.8
14.3
12.7
12.2
7.4
12.5
14.6
8.8
11.1
4.1
5.9
5.2
7.4
8.1
-4.7
11.2
7.4
0.8
7.8
1.9
Supply
This Year
13,919
13,470
13,919
13,470
16,151
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
94,301
190,165
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
94,301
190,165
16,151
14,588
16,151
15,630
16,151
15,630
16,151
16,151
15,630
16,151
18,030
18,631
94,301
195,045
18,631
16,828
18,631
Demand
% Chg
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.4
15.4
0.0
2.6
15.4
15.4
15.4
This Year
8,004
6,362
7,413
7,267
6,883
6,449
7,044
10,350
9,148
8,659
9,979
11,239
9,427
8,958
9,549
8,622
7,844
51,629
107,268
6,989
8,324
11,365
9,832
10,501
10,684
12,054
10,706
9,524
10,933
9,726
8,309
57,695
118,947
7,544
8,963
11,833
11,108
10,988
11,377
12,577
11,185
9,625
11,014
9,991
9,103
61,813
125,308
8,861
10,895
13,748
Revenue
% Chg
17.8
40.8
28.8
18.6
14.0
8.4
18.2
9.8
7.5
21.3
7.1
7.3
13.6
6.3
14.5
12.8
5.9
11.7
10.9
7.9
7.7
4.1
13.0
4.6
6.5
4.3
4.5
1.1
0.7
2.7
9.6
7.1
5.3
17.5
21.6
16.2
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Census Rooms
Participants
449
71.9
449
88.9
449
88.9
449
88.9
521
90.4
This Year
794,219
592,495
681,997
662,393
613,975
% Chg Census Props
6
6
6
6
7
567,890
646,649
992,105
873,702
833,411
974,183
1,136,965
931,385
823,170
890,549
811,149
723,669
4,887,940
10,204,827
609,977
768,523
1,182,197
966,293
1,020,220
1,040,121
1,223,100
1,053,037
899,239
1,043,304
926,467
772,741
5,587,331
11,505,219
684,111
825,553
1,330,173
1,107,495
1,109,517
1,155,433
1,273,826
1,115,306
946,326
1,120,516
1,155,028
849,417
6,212,282
12,672,701
795,077
1,026,153
1,563,565
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
601
601
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.4
90.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
8
8
8
601
601
601
100.0
100.0
100.0
17.3
38.9
30.6
22.5
17.9
7.4
18.8
19.2
10.6
22.4
6.8
7.6
13.1
9.2
17.2
14.2
6.8
14.3
12.7
12.2
7.4
12.5
14.6
8.8
11.1
4.1
5.9
5.2
7.4
24.7
9.9
11.2
10.1
16.2
24.3
17.5
Tab 9 - Classic
Date
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jun YTD 2013
Total 2013
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jun YTD 2014
Total 2014
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jun YTD 2015
Occupancy
This
Year
% Chg
73.6
3.5
67.2
-1.2
70.6
-2.9
70.2
-9.8
69.7
0.7
60.6
-1.5
62.2
-8.8
68.3
23.2
56.5
15.6
66.2
1.0
65.4
1.8
55.0
15.7
71.1
9.9
78.5
6.4
73.8
0.3
68.8
2.4
76.3
8.1
76.3
8.6
74.2
6.4
64.0
5.6
70.9
14.0
66.6
-2.4
55.8
-1.3
70.5
6.5
69.3
5.9
60.7
10.3
71.6
0.7
76.9
-2.1
75.9
2.8
76.2
10.8
86.9
13.8
74.7
5.9
ADR
This
Year
% Chg
105.20
5.5
112.48
11.4
110.88
9.2
111.27
9.9
108.28
8.6
108.26
10.1
111.28
9.4
124.50
7.7
95.43
2.3
105.53
5.0
107.86
6.7
100.60
12.1
111.43
18.3
130.71
14.9
120.56
14.6
119.08
5.9
114.87
3.6
112.44
1.1
110.94
2.5
107.52
-0.7
114.14
2.6
112.71
-9.5
100.02
4.8
117.13
11.0
113.62
5.3
96.35
-4.2
103.20
-7.4
117.89
-9.8
109.90
-8.8
111.62
-6.3
110.04
-4.2
108.76
-7.2
RevPar
This
Year
% Chg
77.38
9.2
75.63
10.1
78.33
6.0
78.13
-0.9
75.51
9.4
65.64
8.4
69.19
-0.3
84.99
32.7
53.92
18.3
69.88
6.1
70.54
8.6
55.35
29.7
79.27
30.0
102.61
22.3
88.92
14.9
81.95
8.4
87.69
12.0
85.77
9.8
82.34
9.0
68.86
4.9
80.89
16.9
75.08
-11.7
55.80
3.5
82.63
18.2
78.69
11.6
58.46
5.6
73.92
-6.8
90.64
-11.7
83.37
-6.2
85.11
3.8
95.64
9.1
81.22
-1.7
Supply
This Year
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
108,781
219,365
18,631
16,828
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
18,631
108,781
219,365
18,631
16,828
18,631
18,030
18,631
18,030
108,781
Demand
% Chg
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
0.0
0.0
15.4
12.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
This Year
13,262
12,527
12,737
13,082
12,993
10,932
11,585
12,308
10,527
72,030
143,457
10,250
11,972
14,626
13,299
12,822
13,765
14,213
13,828
11,548
13,203
12,010
10,393
76,734
151,929
11,305
12,054
14,325
13,678
14,206
15,670
81,238
Revenue
% Chg
19.4
14.0
12.0
4.0
16.2
13.6
5.2
23.2
15.6
16.5
14.5
15.7
9.9
6.4
0.3
2.4
8.1
8.6
6.4
5.6
14.0
-2.4
-1.3
6.5
5.9
10.3
0.7
-2.1
2.8
10.8
13.8
5.9
This Year
1,395,109
1,409,074
1,412,331
1,455,615
1,406,868
1,183,511
1,289,170
1,532,354
1,004,569
7,601,309
15,473,396
1,031,192
1,333,996
1,911,701
1,603,311
1,526,873
1,581,133
1,598,073
1,534,041
1,241,599
1,506,979
1,353,646
1,039,557
8,988,206
17,262,101
1,089,217
1,243,932
1,688,725
1,503,169
1,585,652
1,724,389
8,835,084
% Chg Census Props
26.0
8
27.0
8
22.2
8
14.3
8
26.1
8
25.1
8
15.1
8
32.7
8
18.3
8
22.4
22.1
29.7
8
30.0
8
22.3
8
14.9
8
8.4
8
12.0
8
9.8
8
9.0
8
4.9
8
16.9
8
-11.7
8
3.5
8
18.2
11.6
5.6
8
-6.8
8
-11.7
8
-6.2
8
3.8
8
9.1
8
-1.7
Census & Sample %
% Rooms STAR
Census Rooms
Participants
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
82.4
601
74.0
601
82.4
601
74.0
601
74.0
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
601
74.0
74.0
74.0
82.4
82.4
82.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
601
601
601
601
601
601
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
STR’s Trend Report is a publication of STR, Inc. and is intended solely for use by paid subscribers. Reproduction or distribution of the Trend Report, in whole or part, without written permission of STR is prohibited and
subject to legal action. Site licenses are available. Ownership, distribution and use of the Trend Report and its contents are subject to the terms set forth in the contract you have entered into with STR. Source 2015
STR, Inc.
Tab 10 - Response Report
2013
STR Code
57647
59629
60452
44708
62320
35086
50340
54757
Name of Establishment
Hampton Inn & Suites Austin South Buda
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin South Buda
Comfort Suites Buda Austin South
Quality Inn & Suites Buda
Candlewood Suites San Marcos
Wingate by Wyndham San Marcos
Hampton Inn Suites San Marcos
Comfort Suites Near Texas State University San Marcos
City & State
Buda, TX
Buda, TX
Buda, TX
Buda, TX
San Marcos, TX
San Marcos, TX
San Marcos, TX
San Marcos, TX
Zip Code
78610
78610
78610
78610
78666
78666
78666
78666
Class
Aff Date
Upper Midscale Class
Jun 2008
Aug 2009
Dec 2009
Midscale Class
Mar 2014
Midscale Class
Nov 2012
Midscale Class
Jul 2014
May 2003
Jun 2006
Total Properties:
Open
Date
Rooms
Jun 2008
74
Aug 2009
76
Dec 2009
72
May 2002
50
Nov 2012
80
Jul 1997
106
May 2003
90
Jun 2006
53
8
601
Chg in
Rms
Y
Y
Y
2014
2015
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
○ - Monthly data received by STR
● - Monthly and daily data received by STR
Blank - No data received by STR
Y - (Chg in Rms) Property has experienced a room addition or drop during the time period of the report.
STR’s Trend Report is a publication of STR, Inc. and is intended solely for use by paid subscribers. Reproduction or distribution of the Trend Report, in whole or part, without written permission of STR is prohibited and subject to legal action. Site licenses are available. Ownership, distribution and use of the
Trend Report and its contents are subject to the terms set forth in the contract you have entered into with STR. Source 2015 STR, Inc.
Tab 11 - Help
Methodology
While virtually every chain in the United States provides STR with data on almost all of their properties, there are still some hotels that don't submit data. But we've got you covered.
Every year we examine guidebook listings and hotel directories for information on hotels that don't provide us with data. We don't stop there. We call each hotel in our database every year to
obtain "published" rates for multiple categories. Based on this information we group all hotels - those that report data and those that don't - into groupings based off of price level and geographic
proximity. We then estimate the non-respondents based off of nearby hotels with similar price levels.
Similarly, we sometimes obtain monthly data from a property, but not daily data. We use a similar process. We take the monthly data that the property has provided, and distribute it to the
individual days based on the revenue and demand distribution patterns of similar hotels in the same location.
We believe it imperative to perform this analysis in order to provide interested parties with our best estimate of total lodging demand and room revenue on their areas of interest. Armed with this
information a more informed decision can be made.
Glossary
ADR (Average Daily Rate)
Room revenue divided by rooms sold, displayed as the average rental rate for a
single room.
Affiliation Date
The number of properties and rooms that exist within the selected property set
or segment.
Change in Rooms
Indicator of whether or not an individual hotel has added or removed rooms from
their inventory.
Exchange Rate
The factor used to convert revenue from U.S. Dollars to the local currency.
The exchange rate data is obtained from Oanda.com. Any aggregated number
in the report (YTD, Running 3 month, Running 12 month) uses the exchange
rate of each relative month when calculating the data.
Open Date
Date the property opened as a lodging establishment.
Percent Change
Amount of growth, up, flat, or down from the same period last year (month, ytd, three
months, twelve months). Calculated as ((TY-LY)/LY) * "100".
Revenue (Room Revenue)
Total room revenue generated from the sale or rental of rooms.
RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room)
Room revenue divided by rooms available
Sample % (Rooms)
The % of rooms from which STR receives data. Calculated as (Sample
Rooms/Census Rooms) * "100".
Standard Historical Trend
STR Code
Extended Historical Trend
Demand (Rooms Sold)
The number of rooms sold (excludes complimentary rooms).
Full Historical Trend
values of the eleven preceding months, adding them together and dividing by twelve.
Occupancy
Rooms sold divided by rooms available. Occupancy is always displayed as a
percentage of rooms occupied.
Year to Date
Tab 12 - Terms and Conditions
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United Kingdom
Blue Fin Building
London SE1 0TA
Phone: +44 (0)20 7922 1930
Fax: +44 (0)20 7922 1931
www.strglobal.com
United States
Hendersonville
TN 37075
Phone: +1 (615) 824 8664
Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848
www.str.com
Market Pipeline Report: Austin Southwest/San Marcos, TX Tra
Publication Date: July 28, 2015
Tab
Table of Contents
Summary
Pipeline by Brand Summary
Supply Changes
Data by Property
Construction Pipeline
Glossary
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Tab 2 - Supply Summary
Location: Austin Southwest/San Marcos, TX Tract
Current Room Supply and Pipeline
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Existing
Upper Midscale
In Construction
Midscale
Final Planning
Planning
Economy
Pre Planning
Historic Supply
Hotels
Jun-10
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Independent
Total
Jun-11
5
6
20
15
22
23
91
Jun-12
5
6
20
16
22
23
92
Pipeline Projects
Jun-13
5
6
20
17
21
23
92
Jun-14
5
6
22
18
22
24
97
In Constr.
Jun-15
6
6
22
18
22
24
98
6
7
24
20
22
22
101
Final Planning
Jun-10
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Independent
Total
1,560
735
1,692
1,346
1,514
1,236
8,083
Jun-11
1,559
735
1,725
1,388
1,514
1,236
8,157
Jun-12
1,559
735
1,725
1,445
1,378
1,236
8,078
Planning
Pre Planning
1
2
4
1
4
1
2
5
1
8
7
6
Historic Supply
Rooms
Independent
-
Pipeline Projects
Jun-13
1,559
735
1,857
1,525
1,460
1,346
8,482
Jun-14
1,868
735
1,945
1,527
1,459
1,087
8,621
Jun-15
1,868
832
2,103
1,682
1,460
933
8,878
In Constr.
Final Planning
Planning
195
189
376
55
461
92
155
377
83
815
708
460
Pre Planning
Source and Copyright: Smith Travel Research
No representation is made as to the completeness or accuracy of the information in this report. Use of this report is subject to Smith Travel Research's Standard Terms and Conditions. The information is in no way to
be construed as a recommendation by Smith Travel Research of any industry standard. It should not be published in any manner unless authorized by Smith Travel Research.
-
Tab 3 - Pipeline by Brand Summary
Hotels
Existing Supply *
Total
Recently
In
Opened
Rooms
Pipeline Projects
Final
Constr.
Planning
Existing Supply *
Total
Recently
Pre-
Planning
Planning
Pipeline Projects
Final
In
Opened
Constr.
Planning
Pre-
Planning
Planning
Luxury
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
195
-
-
-
108
146
-
-
Luxury Total
Upper Upscale
Embassy Suites
1
Hilton
Hyatt Regency
Marriott
Omni
Sonesta Hotel
1
Upper Upscale Total
7
283
262
1
491
1
211
2
621
1
1
-
195
1
-
1
1
-
-
195
2,063
-
357
97
Upscale
Courtyard
3
1
Hilton Garden Inn
Homewood Suites
Residence Inn
Springhill Suites
Staybridge Suites
1
1
96
85
1
2
66
230
Upscale Total
7
1
152
1
1
1
2
1
1
161
4
-
-
832
81
97
189
72
72
461
Upper Midscale
Best Western Plus
Comfort Inn
Comfort Suites
Country Inn & Suites
Fairfield Inn
Hampton Inn
Holiday Inn
Holiday Inn Express
Home2 Suites
Wyndham Garden Hotel
Upper Midscale Total
2
1
129
4
1
72
1
278
1
80
84
1
1
1
63
2
112
5
425
1
138
1
3
475
108
86
1
1
24
92
229
1
6
60
2
4
237
84
1
5
-
210
2,103
158
376
92
55
155
55
155
377
-
Midscale
Baymont
Best Western
Candlewood Suites
La Quinta Inns & Suites
Quality Inn
Ramada
Sleep Inn
Wingate by Wyndham
Midscale Total
2
156
3
152
2
1
6
1
202
2
4
254
1
38
1
57
1
106
20
-
1
2
1
-
1,682
Economy
Americas Best Value Inn
Days Inn
Econo Lodge
Extended Stay America
Howard Johnson
3
3
83
717
107
176
1
54
1
117
2
127
-
83
-
Tab 3 - Pipeline by Brand Summary
Hotels
Existing Supply *
Total
Recently
In
Opened
Knights Inn
Microtel Inn & Suites by Wyndham
Motel 6
Red Roof Inn
Rodeway Inn
Super 8
Travelodge
Economy Total
Rooms
Pipeline Projects
Final
Constr.
Planning
Existing Supply *
Total
Recently
Pre-
Planning
Planning
Opened
1
43
2
153
2
234
2
187
1
95
3
113
1
22
Pipeline Projects
Final
In
Constr.
Planning
Pre-
Planning
Planning
54
-
-
-
-
-
1,460
-
-
-
-
Independents
Independent
22
933
-
Tab 4 - Changes to Existing Supply by Brand
12 Month Change
Jun-14
Existing
Supply
New
Add
Converted
Room
Build
In
Additions
Closed
60 Month Change
Removed
Converted
Out
Rooms
Net
Gain /
Jun-15
Existing
Jun-10
Existing
Removed
Loss
Supply
Supply
New
Add
Converted
Room
Build
In
Additions
Closed
Removed
Converted
Rooms
Net
Gain /
Jun-15
Existing
Out
Removed
Loss
Supply
Luxury
Luxury Total
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Upper Upscale
Embassy Suites
283
-
283
283
-
283
Hilton
Hyatt Regency
Marriott
Omni
Sonesta Hotel
262
-
262
262
-
262
Upper Upscale Total
491
-
491
491
211
-
211
211
621
-
621
313
309
(1)
1,868
-
260
97
-
-
-
-
-
-
491
-
211
308
621
-
-
1,868
1,560
-
97
309
-
-
-
(1)
308
1,868
Upscale
Courtyard
Homewood Suites
Residence Inn
Springhill Suites
Staybridge Suites
Upscale Total
97
357
260
97
357
96
-
96
96
-
96
66
-
66
66
-
66
152
-
152
152
-
152
97
161
832
161
735
97
161
832
129
129
161
735
97
-
-
-
-
-
97
-
-
-
-
-
Upper Midscale
Best Western Plus
Comfort Inn
Comfort Suites
Fairfield Inn
Hampton Inn
Holiday Inn
Holiday Inn Express Hotel
Upper Midscale Total
129
-
129
72
72
42
278
-
278
328
84
-
84
84
63
-
63
63
-
63
229
-
229
123
106
229
72
425
138
389
86
210
1,945
158
-
-
-
-
-
-
425
-
138
86
475
129
72
(42)
30
72
(50)
(50)
278
-
84
106
425
138
417
-
210
210
158
2,103
1,692
164
609
(106)
-
-
-
(198)
-
-
425
138
138
58
475
-
210
411
2,103
Midscale
Baymont Inn & Suites
157
Best Western
Candlewood Suites
Quality Inn
Ramada
Ramada Limited
Sleep Inn
Wingate by Wyndham
152
Midscale Total
(1)
(1)
156
157
-
152
202
202
-
202
122
717
-
717
715
50
254
112
-
38
204
50
38
-
57
1,527
-
106
156
-
-
-
(1)
(1)
(50)
80
2
142
38
38
-
57
106
155
106
1,682
(38)
137
106
286
2
-
(88)
156
152
80
202
2
717
142
254
38
38
(38)
57
1,346
(1)
(50)
(1)
57
57
106
336
106
1,682
Economy
107
Days Inn
Econo Lodge
Howard Johnson
Knights Inn
Microtel Inn & Suites by Wyndham
Motel 6
Red Roof Inn
Rodeway Inn
Suburban Extended Stay Hotels
Super 8
Travelodge
175
Economy Total
1
-
107
107
1
176
175
1
-
107
1
176
54
-
54
54
-
54
117
-
117
117
-
117
127
-
127
127
-
127
43
-
43
44
153
-
153
71
234
-
234
234
187
-
187
95
-
95
-
113
54
1,459
-
-
1
-
-
-
(1)
82
(1)
43
82
153
-
234
187
-
187
95
-
95
136
-
113
113
1
54
1,460
54
1,514
933
1,236
(136)
82
-
1
206
8
(136)
(136)
-
-
113
(1)
(54)
54
1,460
(2)
(303)
933
Independents
Independent
1,087
2
(156)
(154)
(515)
Tab 4 - Changes to Existing Supply by Brand
12 Month Change
Jun-14
Existing
Supply
New
Add
Converted
Room
Build
In
Additions
Closed
Removed
Converted
Out
60 Month Change
Rooms
Net
Gain /
Jun-15
Existing
Jun-10
Existing
Removed
Loss
Supply
Supply
New
Add
Converted
Room
Build
In
Additions
Closed
Removed
Converted
Rooms
Net
Gain /
Jun-15
Existing
Out
Removed
Loss
Supply
Tab 5 - Data by Property
STR ID Hotel Name
Brand
Rooms
Sq Ft
Meeting
Space
Sq. Ft.
Largest
Meeting
Space
(Anticipated)
Open Date
Date
Closed
Address
Country
Calling Code
Phone
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Open 57877 Embassy Suites San Marcos Hotel Spa Embassy Suites
Hilton
Open 41604 Hilton Austin Airport
Open 54081 Hyatt Regency Lost Pines Resort & SpaHyatt Regency
Open 42744 Marriott Austin South
Marriott
Open 11262 Omni Austin Hotel @ Southpark
Omni
Open 13628 Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa
Omni
Open 63925 Sonesta Hotel Bee Cave Austin
Sonesta Hotel
Under Construction 63925 Sonesta Hotel Bee Cave Austin
Sonesta Hotel
283
262
41,280
17,322
28,800
7,000
491
34,156
15,913
211
9,448
5,280
312
13,677
7,500
309
43,000
8,240
195
8,937
5,289
195
10,000
Oct-08
Jan-01
Jun-06
Aug-01
Jul-83
Aug-88
Jul-15
Aug-15
1001 E McCarty Ln, San Marcos, TX 78666-1080
9515 New Airport Dr, Austin, TX 78719-2351
575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd, Lost Pines, TX 78612-3863
4415 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1802
4140 Governors Row, Austin, TX 78744-1048
8212 Barton Club Dr, Austin, TX 78735-1406
12525 Bee Cave Pkwy, Austin, TX 78738
12525 Bee Cave Pkwy, Austin, TX 78738
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 392-6450
(512) 385-6767
(512) 308-1234
(512) 441-7900
(512) 448-2222
(512) 329-4000
(512) 483-5900
15124301125
Dec-96
Oct-06
Jul-14
Mar-98
Oct-96
Dec-00
Feb-09
Jul-16
Apr-16
Mar-17
Jan-17
Aug-16
Aug-16
Dec-01
4533 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1803
7809 E Ben White Blvd, Austin, TX 78744-1774
625 Commercial Loop, San Marcos, TX 78666
4537 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1803
4501 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1803
1611 Airport Commerce Dr, Austin, TX 78741-4534
IH 35 & River Ridge Parkway, San Marcos, TX 78666
Stassney Ln & I 35, Austin, TX 78745
1501 Airport Commerce Drive, Austin, TX 78741
IH-35 & Barnes Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666
7119 E Ben White Blvd, Austin, TX 78741
W US Hwy 290 & Old Fredericksburg Rd, Austin, TX 78735
Jan-09 7800 E Riverside Dr, Austin, TX 78744-1664
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 912-1122
(512) 386-7464
(512) 359-7550
(512) 445-5050
(512) 912-1100
(512) 441-8270
(512) 389-9767
1
(512) 247-6166
Jan-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
Mar-10
Dec-09
Apr-01
Jun-06
Mar-09
May-95
Mar-97
Feb-13
Jun-10
Jun-08
Nov-08
May-03
Mar-01
Mar-14
Feb-15
Aug-01
May-03
Sep-03
Aug-09
Jan-13
Jun-85
Aug-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
May-16
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-16
May-17
Feb-17
1805 Airport Commerce Dr, Austin, TX 78741-4538
4120 E Pierce St, Luling, TX 78648-4865
1000 Clovis Barker Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666
505 Agnes St, Bastrop, TX 78602-4131
15295 S IH 35, Buda, TX 78610-5893
104 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6860
1560 S IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6023
4525 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1803
6401 US Hwy 290 W, Austin, TX 78735-8502
240 S Hasler Blvd, Bastrop, TX 78602-4023
1201 Cabelas Dr, Buda, TX 78610
2013 Ranch Rd 620 S, Lakeway, TX 78734
106 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6860
7712 E Riverside Dr, Austin, TX 78744-1648
701 E Stassney Ln, Austin, TX 78745
491 Agnes St, Bastrop, TX 78602-3739
4892 W Hwy 290, Sunset Valley, TX 78735-6802
15295 IH 35, Buda, TX 78610-5893
15707 Oak Grove Blvd, Lakeway, TX 78734-2632
3401 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-7852
1000 Clovis Barker Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666
I 35 N & Gill Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666
1930 IH 35 S, San Marcos, TX 78666-5901
1707 Airport Commerce Drive, Austin, TX 78741
Cabelas Dr & Old San Antonio Rd, Buda, TX 78610
I 10 & Hwy 183, Luling, TX 78648
5000 S US Hwy 35, Austin, TX 78744
Hwy 90 & CR 136, Luling, TX 78648
1930 I-35 S, San Marcos, TX 78666
333 W Hwy 290, Dripping Springs, TX 78620-4016
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 386-5455
(830) 875-5442
(512) 395-2063
(512) 321-3377
(512) 295-8600
(512) 386-6000
(512) 392-1006
(512) 392-8111
(512) 707-8899
(512) 442-4040
(512) 891-7474
(512) 321-2898
(512) 295-4900
(512) 263-7474
(512) 754-7707
(512) 389-1616
(512) 385-8400
(512) 851-1000
(512) 386-7600
(512) 321-1900
(512) 891-9500
(512) 295-8040
(512) 735-5555
(512) 448-2444
15123952063
Upscale
Open 31440 Courtyard Austin South
Courtyard
Courtyard
Open 54732 Courtyard Austin Airport
Open 63098 Courtyard San Marcos
Courtyard
Open 36225 Homewood Suites Austin Airport Area SHomewood Suites
Open 33990 Residence Inn Austin South
Residence Inn
Open 41442 Springhill Suites Austin South
Springhill Suites
Open 56051 Staybridge Suites Austin Airport
Staybridge Suites
Under Construction
Hilton Garden Inn San Marcos
Hilton Garden Inn
Under Construction
Staybridge Suites Austin South Interstat Staybridge Suites
Final Planning
Hilton Garden Inn Austin Airport
Hilton Garden Inn
Final Planning
Homewood Suites San Marcos
Homewood Suites
Final Planning
Residence Inn Austin Airport
Residence Inn
Final Planning
Residence Inn Austin West
Residence Inn
Closed 44010 Closed Hawthorn Suites Ltd Austin Airp Hawthorn Suites Ltd
110
150
750
1,227
750
1,000
97
1,300
1,300
96
400
400
66
280
280
323
323
1,280
500
152
161
108
81
146
85
120
110
70
Upper Midscale
Open 61175 Best Western Plus Austin Airport Inn & Best Western Plus
Open 62743 Best Western Plus Longhorn Inn & SuiteBest Western Plus
Open 63279 Comfort Inn & Suites San Marcos
Comfort Inn
Open 60783 Comfort Suites Bastrop
Comfort Suites
Open 60452 Comfort Suites Buda Austin South
Comfort Suites
Open 41057 Comfort Suites Austin Airport
Comfort Suites
Open 54757 Comfort Suites Near Texas State Unive Comfort Suites
Open 58485 Country Inn & Suites San Marcos
Open
9478 Fairfield Inn & Suites Austin South AirpoFairfield Inn
Open 34237 Hampton Inn Austin Airport Area South Hampton Inn
Open 62185 Hampton Inn Austin Oak Hill
Hampton Inn
Open 60561 Hampton Inn Suites Bastrop
Open 57647 Hampton Inn & Suites Austin South Bud Hampton Inn & Suites
Open 57975 Hampton Inn Suites Austin Lakeway
Open 50340 Hampton Inn Suites San Marcos
Open 41983 Hampton Inn Suites Austin Airport
Open 62836 Holiday Inn Austin Airport
Holiday Inn
Open 63329 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin So Holiday Inn Express
Open 42715 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin Air Holiday Inn Express
Open 49175 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Bastrop Holiday Inn Express
Open 51980 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin Su Holiday Inn Express
Open 59629 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin So Holiday Inn Express
Open 61923 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Austin No Holiday Inn Express
Open
4617 Wyndham Garden Hotel Austin
Under Construction 63279 Comfort Inn & Suites San Marcos
Comfort Inn
Under Construction
Fairfield Inn & Suites Austin San MarcosFairfield Inn
Under Construction 64305 Holiday Inn San Marcos
Holiday Inn
Under Construction
Home2 Suites Austin Airport
Home2 Suites
Final Planning
Fairfield Inn & Suites Austin Buda
Fairfield Inn
Planning
Comfort Inn & Suites Luling
Comfort Inn
Planning
Comfort Suites Austin
Comfort Suites
Planning
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Luling
Holiday Inn Express
Planning
Holiday Inn Express & Suites San Marc Holiday Inn Express
Planning
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Dripping SHoliday Inn Express
75
54
500
500
72
1,080
69
500
1,080
500
72
1,344
1,344
84
675
585
53
300
300
84
400
400
63
123
416
416
106
2,890
2,106
89
2,684
2,684
74
450
450
70
792
504
90
1,200
900
3,000
3,000
2,100
102
138
86
80
2,100
56
1,179
729
99
1,000
1,000
76
900
900
78
750
750
210
10,500
4,290
72
1,080
1,080
112
108
84
92
60
80
75
90
72
15124808181
STR ID Hotel Name
Brand
Rooms
Sq Ft
Meeting
Space
Sq. Ft.
Largest
Meeting
Space
(Anticipated)
Open Date
Date
Closed
Address
Country
Calling Code
Phone
Midscale
Open 7466
Open 34469
Open 33634
Open 55812
Open 59312
Open 62320
Open 37470
Open 29076
Open
5182
Open
5183
Open 58429
Open 37971
Open 37414
Open 38960
Open 44708
Open 37649
Open 36529
Open 33926
Open 61665
Open 35086
Under Construction 64222
Final Planning
Final Planning
Planning
Closed
Baymont Inn & Suites Austin South
Baymont
Baymont San Marcos
Baymont
Best Western San Marcos
Best Western
Best Western Lockhart Hotel & Suites Best Western
Best Western Bastrop Pines Inn
Best Western
Candlewood Suites San Marcos
Candlewood Suites
Candlewood Suites Austin South
Candlewood Suites
La Quinta Inns & Suites San Marcos
La Quinta Inns & Suites Austin Oltorf La Quinta Inns & Suites
La Quinta Inns & Suites Austin South I 3La Quinta Inns & Suites
La Quinta Inns & Suites Kyle
La Quinta Inns & Suites Austin Airport La Quinta Inns & Suites
La Quinta Inns & Suites Austin Southwe La Quinta Inns & Suites
Quality Suites South Austin
Quality Inn
Quality Inn & Suites Buda
Quality Inn
Quality Inn & Suites Airport Del Valle Quality Inn
Quality Inn Bastrop
Quality Inn
Ramada Limited San Marcos
Ramada
Sleep Inn & Suites Dripping Springs
Sleep Inn
Wingate by Wyndham San Marcos
Wingate by Wyndham
La Quinta Inn & Suites Luling
La Quinta Inn & Suites Lakeway
La Quinta Inn & Suites San Marcos Out La Quinta Inns & Suites
Candlewood Suites Buda
Candlewood Suites
Best Western
3524 Closed BEST WESTERN South Inn
96
60
1,505
200
1,505
200
50
120
120
1,000
1,000
800
800
42
60
80
122
117
133
131
66
200
200
142
1,200
1,200
128
650
650
50
50
250
250
112
1,600
800
1,026
1,026
42
38
57
106
55
75
80
83
180
Jun-76
May-97
Jul-96
Mar-07
Sep-09
Nov-12
Dec-98
Oct-93
Mar-75
May-83
Oct-08
Apr-99
Dec-97
Nov-99
May-02
Mar-99
Feb-98
Nov-96
Nov-11
Jul-97
Dec-15
Nov-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Jun-70
4323 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1801
4210 S IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-9397
917 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7036
1811 S Colorado St, Lockhart, TX 78644-3946
107 Hunters Crossing Blvd, Bastrop, TX 78602
600 Wonder World Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666-5945
4320 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78745-2023
1619 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6735
1603 E Oltorf St, Austin, TX 78741-3814
4200 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78745-1202
18655 IH 35 N, Kyle, TX 78640-6083
4424 S Mopac Expy, Austin, TX 78735-6706
1701 E St Elmo Rd, Austin, TX 78744-1007
18658 I 35 S, Buda, TX 78610
2751 E Hwy 71, Del Valle, TX 78617-2206
106 Hasler Blvd, Bastrop, TX 78602-3740
1701 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6713
2720 E US Hwy 290, Dripping Springs, TX 78620
108 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6860
203 E Hwy 90 , Luling, TX 78648
FM 620 & Lohmans Spur, Lakeway, TX 78734
111 Centerpoint Rd, San Marcos, TX 78666
15101 S I 35, Buda, TX 78610
Apr-94 3909 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-7826
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 447-5511
(512) 392-6800
(512) 754-7557
(512) 620-0300
(512) 321-0900
(512) 749-1717
(512) 444-8882
(512) 392-8800
(512) 447-6661
(512) 443-1774
(512) 295-5599
(512) 386-6800
(512) 899-3000
(512) 444-6630
(512) 295-4559
(512) 385-1000
(512) 321-3303
(512) 395-8000
(512) 858-2400
(512) 754-6621
15123960400
19726160092
1507 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7220
15101 IH 35, Buda, TX 78610-9724
1503 Dorothy Nichols Ln, Smithville, TX 78957-1725
4102 Hwy 71 E, Bastrop, TX 78602-5006
1005 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7037
4220 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78745-1202
811 S Guadalupe St, San Marcos, TX 78666-6845
5100 W Hwy 290, Austin, TX 78735-8902
1601 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6711
2711 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5514
801 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7035
7705 Metro Center Dr, Austin, TX 78744-1729
1285 Cabelas Dr, Buda, TX 78610-3421
2707 Interregional Hwy S, Austin, TX 78741
1321 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7102
817 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7035
4701 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78744-1805
1635 Aquarena Springs Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666-7223
1429 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7219
3110 State Hwy 71 E, Bastrop, TX 78602-5007
3120 Montopolis Dr, Austin, TX 78744-1402
1611 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-6711
Jun-10 2525 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5517
Jan-07 1001 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-1135
Jul-11 2501 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5517
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 396-6060
(512) 312-1550
(512) 237-2040
(512) 321-1157
(512) 353-5050
(512) 441-9242
(512) 353-5300
(512) 892-4272
(512) 396-3700
(512) 462-9201
(512) 353-1303
(512) 386-7800
(512) 295-5444
(512) 444-5882
(512) 396-8705
(512) 754-8899
(512) 448-0091
(512) 353-8011
(512) 396-0400
(512) 321-6000
(512) 334-4130
(512) 396-5665
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(512) 353-7770
(512) 321-3949
(512) 444-3222
(512) 892-0644
(512) 261-6600
(512) 847-2517
(512) 443-4242
(512) 892-3510
1
Economy
Open 28343 Americas Best Value Inn San Marcos Americas Best Value Inn
Open 47819 Americas Best Value Inn Buda
Open 55312 Americas Best Value Inn Smithville
Open 27298 Days Inn Bastrop
Days Inn
Open 16333 Days Inn San Marcos
Days Inn
Open 20876 Days Inn Austin South Ben White Blvd Days Inn
Open 20993 Econo Lodge San Marcos
Econo Lodge
Open 43896 Extended Stay America Austin Southwe Extended Stay America
Open
Howard Johnson
8886 Howard Johnson San Marcos
Open
Howard Johnson
9129 Howard Johnson Austin
Open 24583 Knights Inn San Marcos
Knights Inn
Open 60885 Microtel Inn & Suites by Wyndham Aust Microtel Inn & Suites by W
Open 61077 Microtel Inn & Suites by Wyndham BudaMicrotel Inn & Suites by W
Open
Motel 6
6547 Motel 6 Austin South Airport
Open
Motel 6
6591 Motel 6 San Marcos
Open 34363 Red Roof Inn San Marcos
Red Roof Inn
Open 36013 Red Roof Inn Austin South
Red Roof Inn
Open
Rodeway Inn
1132 Rodeway Inn San Marcos
Open 13618 Super 8 San Marcos
Super 8
Open 36212 Super 8 Bastrop
Super 8
Open 53412 Super 8 Austin Airport Area
Super 8
Open 30922 Travelodge San Marcos
Travelodge
Closed
8813 Closed - Americas Best Value Inn Austi Americas Best Value Inn
Closed 31223 Closed Extended Stay America Austin TExtended Stay America
Closed 42764 Closed - Suburban Extended Stay SouthSuburban Extended Stay H
33
40
34
1,000
650
52
62
Jun-85
Jun-85
Jun-98
Jun-86
Apr-88
62
54
117
40
87
43
71
82
400
400
1,000
1,000
200
200
200
200
2,250
1,500
108
126
50
137
95
40
37
36
54
73
149
136
Jun-70
Mar-02
Jun-85
Jun-85
Jun-80
Apr-10
Oct-12
May-73
Feb-80
May-98
Mar-98
Mar-68
Jul-85
Nov-97
Nov-05
Dec-94
Jun-85
Jun-62
Aug-01
Independents
Open 8021
Open 13598
Open 13633
Open 16258
Open 16263
Open 16410
Open 22228
Open 22233
Summit Inn Hotel & Suites
Bastrop Inn
Country Garden Inn
Heart Of Texas Motel
Lakeway Resort & Spa
7A Ranch Resort
Parkwest Inn
Sands Motel
90
32
Jun-75
Apr-84
58
30
176
24,000
5,800
30
1,500
1,000
42
20
Jun-85
Jun-63
Jun-46
1433 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7219
102 Childers Dr, Bastrop, TX 78602-4115
2915 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5519
5303 W Hwy 290, Austin, TX 78735-8905
101 Lakeway Dr, Austin, TX 78734-4399
333 Wayside Dr, Wimberley, TX 78676-5117
2607 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5568
4710 S Lamar Blvd, Austin, TX 78745-1306
STR ID Hotel Name
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Closed
Closed
Closed
Closed
Closed
Closed
Closed
28708
30652
32715
34491
46280
47318
47859
49443
50315
50788
51673
52561
61966
62633
7979
16388
16411
22223
22232
22247
39593
Brand
Lockhart Inn
Lake Austin Spa Resort
Plum Creek Inn
Gateway Inn
Tropicana Motel
Best Budget Inn
Vintage Villas
Luling Inn
Coachway Inn
Classic Inn
Mountain Star Lodge
Mountain View Lodge
Inn Above Onion Creek
The Casulo Hotel
Closed The Gondileer
Closed Aquarena Springs Inn
Closed Eaglenest Inn
Closed - Independent Country Cottage Motel
Closed - Independent St Elmo Motel
Closed Silverstone Inn
Closed Austin
Rooms
36
Sq Ft
Meeting
Space
Sq. Ft.
Largest
Meeting
Space
40
55
225
225
4,200
4,200
135
135
32
30
(Anticipated)
Open Date
Date
Closed
Jun-74
Jun-83
Jun-97
Jun-64
21
43
22
33
24
40
16
12
700
375
51
120
120
Jun-94
Jun-73
Jun-65
Jun-66
Jan-97
May-80
Jan-95
Apr-09
-
25
126
19
Jun-75
Jun-73
30
183
-
Jun-84
Dec-86
Dec-00
Sep-04
Dec-07
Jun-09
Nov-06
Dec-86
Address
1207 Hwy 183 S, Lockhart, TX 78644-3423
1705 S Quinlan Park Rd, Austin, TX 78732-6046
2001 Hwy 183 S, Lockhart, TX 78644-3951
921 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7036
103 Hwy 71 W, Bastrop, TX 78602-3726
903 N IH 35, San Marcos, TX 78666-7036
4209 Eck Ln, Austin, TX 78734-1620
100 S Mulberry St, Luling, TX 78648-2422
1908 E Pierce St, Luling, TX 78648-4834
4702 S Congress Ave, Austin, TX 78745-2303
3573 Hwy 620 S, Austin, TX 78738-6802
10600 Ranch Rd, Wimberley, TX 78676
4444 W FM 150, Kyle, TX 78640-8600
3017 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-5501
1001 S IH 35, Austin, TX 78741-1135
1 Aquarena Springs Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666
1 Woodcreek Dr, Wimberley, TX 78676-3338
2601 Hwy 71 E, Del Valle, TX 78617-2209
4419 S Congress Ave, Austin, TX 78745-1967
2525 Hwy 71 E, Del Valle, TX 78617-2204
Country
Calling Code
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Phone
(512) 398-5201
(512) 372-7300
(512) 398-4911
(512) 754-7766
(512) 321-2526
(512) 392-3990
(512) 266-9333
(830) 875-5646
(830) 875-5635
(512) 445-2558
(512) 263-2010
(512) 847-2992
(512) 268-1617
(512) 610-1116
Tab 6 - Construction Pipeline
Publication Date: July 28,
Project ID: 46911
Location
Owner/Developer
In Construction
Chain: Fairfield Inn
Castle Hospitality Ltd
Fairfield Inn & Suites Austin San Marcos
1250 N IH 35
McAllen, TX 78504
Phone: 9566649570
Project ID: 36367
Location
Owner/Developer
In Construction
Chain: Holiday Inn
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
10/30/2015 12:00:00 AM
112
Austin, TX
Austin Southwest/San Marcos, TX
Architect
Notes:
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
10/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
108
Austin, TX
Architect
Holiday Inn San Marcos
1930 IH 35 S
San Marcos, TX 78666-5901
Notes:
Project ID: 44846
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
In Construction
Chain: Hilton Garden Inn
Stonebridge Hotels LLC
Labunski & Associates
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
7/15/2016 12:00:00 AM
108
Austin, TX
Hilton Garden Inn San Marcos
IH 35 & River Ridge Parkway
Harlingen, TX 78550-8186
Phone: 9564284334
Fax: 9564230582
Notes:
Project ID: 48871
Location
Owner/Developer
In Construction
Chain: Fairfield Inn
Seva Hospitality
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
5/10/2016 12:00:00 AM
92
Austin, TX
Architect
Fairfield Inn & Suites Austin Buda
Cabelas Dr & Old San Antonio Rd
Buda, TX 78610
Notes:
Project ID: 34925
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
In Construction
Chain: Home2 Suites
1707 Airport Commerce LLC
Danze & Davis Architects Inc
Home2 Suites Austin Airport
1707 Airport Commerce Drive
Austin, TX 78741
Austin, TX 78741
Austin, TX 78759
Phone: 5123430714
Fax: 5123430718
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
5/25/2016 12:00:00 AM
84
Austin, TX
Notes:
Project ID: 43446
In Construction
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
Chain: Staybridge Suites
4/1/2016 12:00:00 AM
81
Austin, TX
Staybridge Suites Austin South Interstate Highway 35
Stassney Ln & I 35
Austin, TX 78745
Notes:
Project ID: 47273
Location
Owner/Developer
In Construction
Chain: La Quinta Inns & Suites
Radha Krishn LP
La Quinta Inn & Suites Luling
203 E Hwy 90
Luling, TX 78648
Phone: 5127571678
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
12/19/2015 12:00:00 AM
55
Austin, TX
Architect
Notes:
Project ID: 51144
Location
Owner/Developer
Final Planning
Chain: Hilton Garden Inn
ABIA Hospitality LLC
Hilton Garden Inn Austin Airport
1501 Airport Commerce Drive
Austin, TX 78741
Austin, TX 78738
Project ID: 51725
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
Final Planning
Chain: Residence Inn
Architect
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
3/20/2017 12:00:00 AM
146
Austin, TX
Architect
Notes:
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
10/13/2016 12:00:00 AM
120
Austin, TX
Residence Inn Austin Airport
7119 E Ben White Blvd
Austin, TX 78741
Notes:
Project ID: 44582
Location
Owner/Developer
Final Planning
Chain: Residence Inn
Pathfinder Development Corporation
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
11/11/2016 12:00:00 AM
110
Austin, TX
Residence Inn Austin West
W US Hwy 290 & Old Fredericksburg Rd
Austin, TX 78735
Notes:
Project ID: 49430
Location
Owner/Developer
Final Planning
Chain: Homewood Suites
Bipin N. Patel
Architect
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
1/16/2017 12:00:00 AM
85
Austin, TX
Homewood Suites San Marcos
IH-35 & Barnes Dr
Notes:
Project ID: 45016
Location
Owner/Developer
Final Planning
San Marcos Holiday Inn LLC
La Quinta Inn & Suites San Marcos Outlet Mall
111 Centerpoint Rd
Columbia, TN 38401
Phone: 6154790581
Phone: 7133980390
Project ID: 37404
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
Final Planning
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
7/30/2016 12:00:00 AM
80
Austin, TX
Architect
Notes:
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
11/28/2016 12:00:00 AM
75
Austin, TX
La Quinta Inn & Suites Lakeway
FM 620 & Lohmans Spur
Lakeway, TX 78734
Irving, TX 75038
Phone: 9726799223
Project ID: 48951
Location
Owner/Developer
Architect
Planning
Chain: Holiday Inn Express
Owner/Developer
Architect
Owner/Developer
Architect
Notes:
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
5/1/2017 12:00:00 AM
90
Austin, TX
Holiday Inn Express & Suites San Marcos
1930 I-35 S
Notes:
Project ID: 52923
Location
Planning
Chain: Candlewood Suites
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
4/1/2017 12:00:00 AM
83
Austin, TX
Candlewood Suites Buda
15101 S I 35
Buda, TX 78610
Notes:
Project ID: 52050
Location
Planning
Chain: Comfort Suites
Projected opening:
6/30/2017 12:00:00 AM
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
80
Austin, TX
Comfort Suites Austin
5000 S US Hwy 35
Austin, TX 78744
Notes:
Project ID: 49290
Location
Planning
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM
75
Austin, TX
Owner/Developer
Architect
Owner/Developer
Architect
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Luling
Hwy 90 & CR 136
Luling, TX 78648
Notes:
Project ID: 47759
Location
Planning
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
2/2/2017 12:00:00 AM
72
Austin, TX
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Dripping Springs Austin Area
333 W Hwy 290
Dripping Springs, TX 78620-4016
Notes:
Project ID: 52123
Location
Planning
Chain: Comfort Inn
Projected opening:
Rooms:
Market:
Sub-Market:
12/31/2016 12:00:00 AM
60
Austin, TX
Owner/Developer
Architect
Comfort Inn & Suites Luling
I 10 & Hwy 183
Luling, TX 78648
Notes:
Tab 7 - Glossary
Affiliation Date
Pre-Planning
No architect has been selected
The number of properties and rooms that exist (universe)
Recently Opened
Opened in the last 12 months
Change in Rooms
Indicator of whether or not an individual hotel has had added or deleted rooms.
Room Additions
Rooms that were added to an existing property
Converted In / Converted Out
Rooms that converted or reflagged into or out of a brand or chain scale
Rooms Removed
Rooms that were removed from an existing property
Existing Supply
All hotels opened and operating, including those opened in the last 12 months
Sample % (Rooms)
The % of rooms STR receives data from. Calculated as (Sample Rooms/Census
Rooms) * "100".
Final Planning
The project will go out for bids, or construcion will start within 4 months
In Construction
Ground has been broken or the owner is finalizing bids on the prime (general) contract
New Build
New hotel inventory (does not include additions to existing properties)
Open Date
Date the property opened
Planning
approvals have usually been granted
STR Code
values of the eleven preceiding months, adding them together and dividing by twelve.
Year to date
Average or sum of values starting January 1 of the given year.
Addendum B
ADDENDUM B
Other Market Data
VOLUME IX - ISSUE II
JUNE - AUGUST 2015 EDITION
PRICE: $495
For more information about this market please contact:
Randy McCaslin at [email protected]
HOSPITALITY
RESEARCH
A CBRE COMPANY
AUSTIN
REGIONAL
ECONOMIC
REGIONAL ECONOMIC
SUMMARY SUMMARY
HOTEL
MARKET
HOTEL MARKET
SUMMARYSUMMARY
“The Eleventh District economy grew at a moderate pace over the
past six weeks, similar to the prior reporting period. Manufacturers
mostly reported steady or increased demand. Retail reports were
more mixed, but reports of automobile sales were consistently
positive. Demand for nonfinancial services improved or held steady,
and real estate activity remained solid.
By year-end 2015, Austin hotels are forecast to see a RevPAR
increase of 3.5%. This is the result of an estimated decline in
occupancy of 1.4% and a 4.9% gain in average daily room rates
(ADR). The 3.5% advance in Austin RevPAR is less than the national
projection of a 7.2% increase.
Most responding firms said prices held steady over the last six
weeks. Retailers noted elevated transportation costs because of the
West Coast port strike, while a few other industries--transportation
services, airlines, and food and construction-related manufacturing-said lower fuel prices reduced transportation costs. Restaurant
contacts said selling prices moved up to accommodate continued
increasing costs and that further prices increases are expected by
the third quarter.
Contacts reported wages were flat to up from six weeks ago. An auto
dealer gave a raise to mechanics and an airline recently increased
pay for pilots and flight attendants. Wages rose slightly in
transportation services, and some upward wage pressure persisted
in metals manufacturing. A retailer and a primary metals
manufacturer remarked that Walmart's announcement about raising
their base wage could lead to wage increases in order to stay
competitive.”
AUSTIN: NEXT 4 QUARTERS
Federal Reserve Bank Beige Book, April 15, 2015
AUSTIN: NEXT 4 QUARTERS
Leading the way in 2015 RevPAR growth is the lower-priced
segment of Austin. The properties in this category are forecast to
attain a 3.1% gain in ADR and see a 0.1% increase in occupancy,
resulting in a 3.2% RevPAR increase. Upper-priced hotels are
projected to experience an ADR growth rate of 4.3%, along with a
3.5% loss in occupancy, resulting in a 0.7% RevPAR increase.
Looking towards 2016, Austin RevPAR is expected to decline 0.9%.
This is less than the rate of growth in 2015. Market conditions are
expected to be worse for the upper-priced segment (2.1% RevPAR
decline) than the lower-priced segment (0.3% RevPAR decline).
Austin market occupancy levels are expected to range from 66.4% to
71.4% during the 5-year forecast period.
AUSTIN
AUSTIN FORECAST
FORECAST SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR Δ RevPAR
2010
63.9%
5.5%
$99.07
-2.9%
$63.28
2.5%
2011
66.7%
4.4%
$104.88
5.9%
$69.94
10.5%
2012
68.3%
2.4%
$112.98
7.7%
$77.19
10.4%
2013
71.4%
4.5%
$119.06
5.4%
$85.04
10.2%
8.0%
The arrows show the forecast direction of change over the next 4
quarters vs. the previous 4 quarters. Green indicates the change will
be above the long run average, and red indicates it will be below.
2014
72.4%
1.4%
$126.90
6.6%
$91.88
2015F
71.4%
-1.4%
$133.10
4.9%
$95.07
3.5%
Occupancy
2016F
69.1%
-3.2%
$136.37
2.5%
$94.25
-0.9%
Occupancy will decrease to 70.7%, a decline over the past
4 quarters' rate of 72.9%, but above the long run average
of 66.5%
2017F
67.5%
-2.3%
$139.34
2.2%
$94.05
-0.2%
2018F
66.6%
-1.4%
$142.31
2.1%
$94.76
0.7%
2019F
66.4%
-0.2%
$144.90
1.8%
$96.28
1.6%
Average Daily Rate
Long Run Averages - 1988 to 2014
ADR growth expectations are weakening, 3.4% vs. the past
4 quarters' rate of 6.7%, and are below the long run
average of 4.1%
EXHIBIT
PerformanceGrade
Gradevs.
vs. Long
Long Run
EXHIBIT
1**:1**:
Performance
RunAverage
Average
* Red indicates above long-term average
Supply growth is climbing, 8.5% vs. the past 4 quarters'
rate of 2.4%, and greater than the long run average of
3.2%
Demand
Forecast demand growth is climbing, 5.2% vs. the past 4
quarters' rate of 4.4%, and is greater than the long run
average of 4.3%
VOLUME IX - ISSUE II
Number of Standard Deviations
3.0
RevPAR growth projections are falling to 0.2% as
compared to the past 4 quarters' rate of 8.8%, and are
lower than the long run average of 5.4%
Source: PKF Hospitality Research
Δ RevPAR: 5.4%
Source: PKF Hospitality Research / STR Inc.
Revenue Per Available Room
Supply*
Δ ADR: 4.1%
Occupancy: 66.5%
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
** See Appendix for exhibit descriptions
www.pkfc.com
PRICE: $495
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Economic Summary
Below are a select number of variables that drive the PKF-HR econometric forecasts contained in this report. Income and employment are important
barometers of economic health and are used in every Hotel Horizons® forecast model. The lodging market is part of the larger economy, and the forces
that affect us nationally also affect lodging, but in different magnitudes and time periods (see Exhibits 4 and 5 below). Exhibits 2 - 6 provide an overview
of current economic history and forecast, and provide explanation of what to expect in the future, and how that affects the lodging industry.
Exhibit 2*: Income Change
Real Personal Income
Exhibit 3*: Employment Change
Total Payroll Employment
See graph below
20%
See graph below
8%
6%
15%
4%
10%
2%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-2%
-4%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Source: CBRE EA
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Source: CBRE EA
*See Appendix for exhibit descriptions
Exhibit 4*: Quarterly Income vs. RevPAR Change
Income (Left)
Exhibit 5*: Quarterly Employment vs. Demand Change
RevPAR (Right)
Employment (Left)
7.0%
14.0%
6.0%
12.0%
5.0%
10.0%
3.5%
4.0%
8.0%
3.0%
Demand (Right)
5.0%
7.0%
4.5%
6.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2.5%
3.0%
6.0%
2.0%
4.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Source: CBRE EA, PKF-HR, STR, Inc.
3.0%
2.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
Source: CBRE EA, PKF-HR, STR, Inc.
Exhibit 6*: Average Annual Growth Rates
Austin 1988 to 2014
6.0%
Austin 2015 to 2019
5.6%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
4.8%
4.6%
3.6%
2.0%
2.5%
2.8%
2.3%
1.0%
0.0%
Change in Total Employment
Change in Consumer Price Index
Change in Gross Metro Product
Change in Real Personal Income
Source: CBRE EA, Moody's Analytics
P. 2 | PKF HOSPITALITY RESEARCH
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Hotel Summary
The graphs on the left illustrate the magnitude of change in performance during the historical and forecasted period 2010 to 2019. Used as a relative
benchmark, each market segment is plotted against a common index value of 2010 = 100. This method provides clear insight of how each market segment
performed and is expected to perform in relation to others in the specified period. The charts on the right compare near-term historical compound annual
growth rates (CAGR) to the CAGRs for the forecast period.
Exhibit 7*:95Occupancy120
Change
Exhibit 10*: Compound Average Annual Supply Change
All U.S.
Upper-Priced Hotels
Lower-Priced Hotels
All Hotels
120
Past 5 Years
7%
Next 5 Years
6.4%
6.4%
6.3%
6%
115
5%
110
4%
3%
105
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
Upper-Priced
Lower-Priced
2%
100
1%
95
0%
All Hotels
Exhibit 8*:
100ADR Change
150
Exhibit 11*: Compound Average Annual Demand Change
All U.S.
Upper-Priced Hotels
Lower-Priced Hotels
All Hotels
Past 5 Years
Next 5 Years
7%
150
145
6%
140
5.8%
5.3%
4.5%
5%
135
130
4.6%
4.7%
4.2%
4%
125
120
3%
115
2%
110
105
1%
100
0%
All Hotels
Upper-Priced
Lower-Priced
Exhibit 9*:
100RevPAR Change
170
Exhibit 12*: Compound Average Annual RevPAR Change
All U.S.
Upper-Priced Hotels
Lower-Priced Hotels
All Hotels
170
Past 5 Years
12%
10%
160
Next 5 Years
9.8%
10.3%
9.5%
8%
150
140
6%
130
4%
120
2%
110
0%
100
-2%
0.0%
All Hotels
0.9%
0.3%
Upper-Priced
Lower-Priced
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Forecast - All Hotels
Year
Period
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
Δ Supply
Δ Demand
2010
Annual
63.9%
5.5%
$99.07
-2.9%
$63.28
2.5%
4.8%
10.5%
2011
Annual
66.7%
4.4%
$104.88
5.9%
$69.94
10.5%
2.4%
6.9%
2012
1
68.4%
-0.2%
$117.11
7.6%
$80.05
7.3%
0.2%
0.0%
2012
2
72.8%
4.7%
$110.00
4.7%
$80.05
9.6%
0.1%
4.8%
2012
3
66.9%
-0.4%
$103.47
1.3%
$69.17
0.8%
0.9%
0.4%
2012
4
65.4%
6.1%
$121.61
17.9%
$79.49
25.1%
1.7%
7.9%
2012
Annual
68.3%
2.4%
$112.98
7.7%
$77.19
10.4%
0.7%
3.2%
2013
1
71.1%
4.0%
$124.16
6.0%
$88.28
10.3%
2.5%
6.6%
2013
2
75.7%
4.0%
$117.96
7.2%
$89.27
11.5%
3.1%
7.2%
2013
3
70.4%
5.2%
$108.76
5.1%
$76.52
10.6%
2.8%
8.2%
2013
4
68.6%
5.0%
$125.54
3.2%
$86.12
8.3%
2.6%
7.7%
2013
Annual
71.4%
4.5%
$119.06
5.4%
$85.04
10.2%
2.8%
7.4%
2014
1
71.8%
0.9%
$132.87
7.0%
$95.36
8.0%
2.5%
3.5%
2014
2
75.9%
0.3%
$124.76
5.8%
$94.71
6.1%
2.1%
2.5%
2014
3
73.0%
3.8%
$117.06
7.6%
$85.50
11.7%
2.6%
6.5%
2014
4
68.9%
0.5%
$133.52
6.4%
$92.02
6.8%
1.7%
2.2%
2014
Annual
72.4%
1.4%
$126.90
6.6%
$91.88
8.0%
2.2%
3.6%
2015
1
73.9%
3.0%
$142.54
7.3%
$105.33
10.5%
3.3%
6.4%
2015F
2
74.8%
-1.4%
$127.73
2.4%
$95.58
0.9%
5.1%
3.6%
2015F
3
70.7%
-3.2%
$123.10
5.2%
$87.02
1.8%
8.4%
4.9%
2015F
4
66.6%
-3.4%
$139.55
4.5%
$92.95
1.0%
9.9%
6.2%
2015F
Annual
71.4%
-1.4%
$133.10
4.9%
$95.07
3.5%
6.7%
5.2%
2016F
Annual
69.1%
-3.2%
$136.37
2.5%
$94.25
-0.9%
9.1%
5.6%
2017F
Annual
67.5%
-2.3%
$139.34
2.2%
$94.05
-0.2%
7.6%
5.1%
2018F
Annual
66.6%
-1.4%
$142.31
2.1%
$94.76
0.7%
5.4%
4.0%
2019F
Annual
66.4%
-0.2%
$144.90
1.8%
$96.28
1.6%
3.5%
3.3%
2015 1Q
Trailing 4 Qtrs
72.9%
1.9%
$129.49
6.7%
$94.45
8.8%
2.4%
4.4%
Exhibit13*:
13*:Austin
Austin
Standardized
Changes
in Real
RevPAR
Movements
Exhibit
Standardized
Changes
in Real
RevPAR
Movements
Over Over
Time Time
U.S.
Austin
4
Number of Standard Deviations
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015F
2017F
2019F
*See Appendix for exhibit description
HOTEL HORIZONS® FORECAST
AUSTIN
Austin Forecast - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Period
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
Δ Supply
Δ Demand
2010
Annual
69.9%
5.7%
$136.01
-1.1%
$95.11
4.5%
4.5%
10.4%
2011
Annual
72.7%
4.0%
$144.54
6.3%
$105.14
10.5%
2.9%
7.0%
2012
1
74.8%
-1.4%
$162.65
7.5%
$121.65
6.0%
0.7%
-0.6%
2012
2
79.0%
3.0%
$150.81
5.5%
$119.18
8.7%
0.0%
3.0%
2012
3
72.0%
-0.4%
$142.22
1.4%
$102.47
1.0%
0.1%
-0.2%
2012
4
71.8%
8.6%
$170.65
19.0%
$122.50
29.3%
0.1%
8.7%
2012
Annual
74.4%
2.3%
$156.49
8.3%
$116.45
10.8%
0.2%
2.5%
2013
1
77.2%
3.2%
$173.89
6.9%
$134.22
10.3%
1.0%
4.2%
2013
2
82.1%
3.9%
$162.29
7.6%
$133.21
11.8%
2.4%
6.3%
2013
3
74.1%
2.8%
$150.84
6.1%
$111.77
9.1%
2.1%
5.0%
2013
4
73.2%
2.0%
$177.69
4.1%
$130.04
6.2%
2.7%
4.7%
2013
Annual
76.6%
3.0%
$166.11
6.1%
$127.29
9.3%
2.1%
5.1%
2014
1
77.1%
-0.1%
$186.33
7.2%
$143.74
7.1%
3.4%
3.3%
2014
2
81.3%
-0.9%
$171.03
5.4%
$139.11
4.4%
1.9%
1.0%
2014
3
77.9%
5.1%
$161.04
6.8%
$125.37
12.2%
2.8%
8.0%
2014
4
73.9%
1.0%
$188.47
6.1%
$139.37
7.2%
2.2%
3.3%
2014
Annual
77.6%
1.2%
$176.47
6.2%
$136.88
7.5%
2.6%
3.8%
2015
1
78.3%
1.6%
$201.14
7.9%
$157.59
9.6%
5.8%
7.4%
2015F
2
79.2%
-2.7%
$174.01
1.7%
$137.75
-1.0%
9.3%
6.3%
2015F
3
72.6%
-6.7%
$167.20
3.8%
$121.40
-3.2%
16.6%
8.8%
2015F
4
70.0%
-5.4%
$195.19
3.6%
$136.55
-2.0%
17.1%
10.8%
2015F
Annual
74.9%
-3.5%
$184.14
4.3%
$137.83
0.7%
12.2%
8.3%
2016F
Annual
71.5%
-4.5%
$188.64
2.4%
$134.91
-2.1%
11.0%
6.1%
2017F
Annual
69.2%
-3.2%
$192.79
2.2%
$133.48
-1.1%
8.6%
5.2%
2018F
Annual
68.5%
-1.0%
$196.17
1.8%
$134.40
0.7%
4.9%
3.8%
2019F
Annual
68.9%
0.6%
$199.66
1.8%
$137.59
2.4%
1.4%
2.0%
2015 1Q
Trailing 4 Qtrs
77.9%
1.6%
$180.52
6.6%
$140.58
8.3%
3.2%
4.9%
Austin Financial Benchmarks* - Full-Service Hotels
Full-Service Hotels - Percent of Total Revenue - 2014
Financial Line Item
South Central Region
ADR Between $110 & $200†
150 to 300 Rooms‡
Rooms Revenue
71.6%
71.9%
72.2%
Food and Beverage Revenue
23.9%
24.3%
23.7%
34.3%
36.7%
38.7%
Total Departmental Income
65.7%
63.3%
61.3%
Total Undistributed Expenses
26.0%
26.0%
25.8%
39.8%
37.3%
35.5%
8.2%
7.8%
7.8%
31.6%
29.5%
27.7%
Management Fees, Property Taxes, and Insurance
Net Operating Income**
*Data from 2015 "Trends® in the Hotel Industry" report
**Before deductions for capital reserves, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
† Austin Upper-Price Average ADR: $176.47
‡
Austin Upper-Price Average Size: 207 Rooms
For a more comparable and detailed financial comparison, we recommend a PKF Benchmarker SM report.
Please contact Viet Vo at (404) 809-3958 for more information.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Forecast - Lower-Priced Hotels
Year
Period
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
Δ Supply
Δ Demand
2010
Annual
59.4%
5.4%
$66.63
-5.8%
$39.55
-0.8%
5.0%
10.6%
2011
Annual
62.1%
4.7%
$69.94
5.0%
$43.46
9.9%
2.0%
6.8%
2012
1
63.5%
0.7%
$76.78
8.5%
$48.76
9.2%
-0.1%
0.5%
2012
2
68.1%
6.2%
$74.45
4.9%
$50.67
11.4%
0.2%
6.4%
2012
3
63.0%
-0.4%
$70.29
1.6%
$44.26
1.2%
1.4%
1.0%
2012
4
60.6%
4.2%
$78.98
15.0%
$47.90
19.8%
2.8%
7.1%
2012
Annual
63.8%
2.6%
$75.09
7.4%
$47.89
10.2%
1.1%
3.7%
2013
1
66.6%
4.9%
$81.92
6.7%
$54.59
11.9%
3.6%
8.7%
2013
2
70.9%
4.2%
$79.91
7.3%
$56.67
11.8%
3.6%
7.9%
2013
3
67.6%
7.3%
$74.65
6.2%
$50.46
14.0%
3.4%
11.0%
2013
4
65.2%
7.6%
$82.52
4.5%
$53.83
12.4%
2.6%
10.3%
2013
Annual
67.6%
6.0%
$79.72
6.2%
$53.88
12.5%
3.3%
9.4%
2014
1
67.8%
1.7%
$87.60
6.9%
$59.36
8.7%
1.9%
3.6%
2014
2
71.9%
1.4%
$86.09
7.7%
$61.90
9.2%
2.3%
3.7%
2014
3
69.5%
2.8%
$80.49
7.8%
$55.91
10.8%
2.4%
5.3%
2014
4
65.2%
-0.1%
$87.26
5.7%
$56.88
5.7%
1.3%
1.2%
2014
Annual
68.6%
1.5%
$85.32
7.0%
$58.51
8.6%
2.0%
3.5%
2015
1
70.4%
4.0%
$92.01
5.0%
$64.82
9.2%
1.5%
5.5%
2015F
2
71.4%
-0.7%
$87.13
1.2%
$62.21
0.5%
2.0%
1.3%
2015F
3
69.1%
-0.6%
$83.87
4.2%
$57.93
3.6%
2.3%
1.7%
2015F
4
63.8%
-2.1%
$88.89
1.9%
$56.74
-0.2%
4.6%
2.4%
2015F
Annual
68.6%
0.1%
$87.96
3.1%
$60.38
3.2%
2.6%
2.7%
2016F
Annual
67.1%
-2.3%
$89.72
2.0%
$60.20
-0.3%
7.6%
5.1%
2017F
Annual
66.0%
-1.6%
$91.59
2.1%
$60.46
0.4%
6.8%
5.0%
2018F
Annual
64.9%
-1.6%
$94.33
3.0%
$61.27
1.3%
5.8%
4.1%
2019F
Annual
64.4%
-0.8%
$97.23
3.1%
$62.66
2.3%
5.2%
4.4%
2015 1Q
Trailing 4 Qtrs
69.2%
2.0%
$86.47
6.5%
$59.88
8.7%
1.9%
4.0%
Austin Financial Benchmarks* - Limited-Service Hotels
Limited-Service Hotels - Percent of Total Revenue - 2014
Financial Line Item
South Central Region
Rooms Revenue
ADR Between $75 & $115†
98.2%
Under 100 Rooms‡
98.3%
98.8%
Food and Beverage Revenue
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
26.3%
27.8%
28.8%
Total Departmental Income
73.7%
72.2%
71.2%
Total Undistributed Expenses
28.9%
29.6%
30.5%
44.8%
42.6%
40.6%
8.8%
8.3%
8.7%
36.0%
34.3%
32.0%
Management Fees, Property Taxes, and Insurance
Net Operating Income**
*Data from 2015 "Trends® in the Hotel Industry" report
**Before deductions for capital reserves, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
† Austin Lower-Price Average ADR: $85.32
‡ Austin Lower-Price Average Size: 87 Rooms
For a more comparable and detailed financial comparison, we recommend a PKF Benchmarker SM report.
Please contact Viet Vo at (404) 809-3958 for more information.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
National Horizon Profile
Net Additions to Hotel Supply from Q1 2015 to Q4 2016
This page showcases the PKF Hospitality Research Hotel Horizons® forecasting universe. The map below displays the forecast of net
additions to hotel supply in each market from Q1 2015 to Q4 2016. Quarterly Hotel Horizons® reports are available for the nation and all the
markets shown below.
store.pkfc.com
2
1
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
3
Albany
Albuquerque
Anaheim
Atlanta
Austin
Baltimore
Boston
Charleston
Charlotte
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbia
Columbus
Dallas
1
2
2
2
2
1
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
3
Greater Than 3000 Rooms
Dayton
Denver
Detroit
Fort Lauderdale
Fort Worth
Hartford
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Long Island
Los Angeles
Louisville
Memphis
Miami
2
2
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
3
2
2
Minneapolis
Nashville
New Orleans
New York
Newark
Norfolk-VA Beach
Oahu
Oakland
Omaha
Orlando
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
3
1
Richmond
Sacramento
Saint Louis
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose-Santa Cruz
Savannah
Seattle
Tampa
Tucson
Washington DC
West Palm Beach
Raleigh-Durham
Between 1000 and 3000 Rooms
Less than 1000 Rooms
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Market Profile
Total Room Supply:
32,401
Austin Top Brands
Upper-Priced Brands
Properties
Rooms
% Market
Lower-Priced Brands
Properties
Rooms
% Market
Courtyard
8
1,185
3.7%
15
1,719
5.3%
Hilton
2
1,063
3.3%
12
1,352
4.2%
3.0%
Omni
3
1,013
3.1%
Holiday Inn
5
959
JW Marriott
1
1,012
3.1%
Motel 6
8
871
2.7%
Embassy Suites
4
952
2.9%
8
842
2.6%
Source: STR Inc.
Austin Supply Pipeline
Upper-Priced
Phase
Properties
Rooms
Lower-Priced
% Market
Properties
Rooms
Unclassified / Independent
% Market
Properties
Rooms
% Market
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
1
300
0.9%
Planning
6
818
2.5%
9
772
2.4%
1
16
0.0%
Final Planning
12
1,683
5.2%
5
451
1.4%
0
0
0.0%
In Construction
15
3,226
10.0%
14
1,402
4.3%
0
0
0.0%
Total
33
5,727
17.7%
28
2,625
8.1%
2
316
1.0%
Source: STR Inc. / PKF Hospitality Research
Pipeline Status Definitions
Phase
Definition
Unconfirmed*
Potential projects that remain unconfirmed at this time. STR is unable to verify the existence of these projects through a
corporate chain feed or other verifiable source.
Planning
Confirmed, under contract projects where construction will begin in more than 12 months.
Final Planning
Confirmed, under contract projects where construction will begin within the next 12 months.
In Construction
Vertical construction on the physical building has begun. This does not include construction on any sub-grade structures
including, but not limited to, parking garages, underground supports/footers or any other type of sub-grade construction.
*Formerly Pre-Planning
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Austin Submarket Map
Total Room Supply:
Source: STR Inc.
Austin Submarket Summary
Upper-Priced
Submarket
32,401
Properties
Lower-Priced
Rooms
% Market
Properties
Rooms
Totals
% Market
Properties
Rooms
% Market
Central Business District
21
6,343
19.6%
11
1,399
4.3%
32
7,742
23.9%
US-290 / I-35 Area
10
1,815
5.6%
48
5,208
16.1%
58
7,023
21.7%
7
926
2.9%
36
2,668
8.2%
43
3,594
11.1%
Round Rock / Georgetown
Southwest / San Marcos
16
2,928
9.0%
84
5,878
18.1%
100
8,806
27.2%
Northwest / Arboretum
15
2,294
7.1%
29
2,942
9.1%
44
5,236
16.2%
69
14,306
44.2%
208
18,095
55.8%
277
32,401
100.0%
Total
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Submarket Profile - Central Business District
Total Rooms:
The Austin downtown hotels are concentrated around the
University of Texas and the state capital buildings just east and west
of I-35 and on Highway 290 east of I-35.
Submarket Rank*
7,742
Submarket Penetration*
1
177%
Out of 5
*Submarket RevPAR penetration expressed as a percentage of
the market RevPAR for the previous 4 quarters. Direction of
arrow indicates if penetration is increasing or decreasing
relative to one year ago's performance.
*Based on RevPAR change over the last 4
quarters.
Central Business District Submarket Inventory
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Inventory
Upper-Priced Brands by Share
21
Properties
6,343
Rooms
81.9%
% Submkt.
Inventory
Lower-Priced Brands By Share
11
Properties
1,399
Rooms
18.1%
% Submkt.
JW Marriott
1
1,012
13.1%
2
346
4.5%
Hilton
1
801
10.3%
Holiday Inn
1
322
4.2%
Hyatt Regency
1
448
5.8%
2
231
Central Business District Construction Pipeline
Phase
Properties
3.0%
Source: STR Inc.
Upper-Priced
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Lower-Priced
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
1
300
Planning
2
274
3.5%
0
0
0.0%
1
16
0.2%
Final Planning
4
814
10.5%
1
84
1.1%
0
0
0.0%
7
2,199
28.4%
2
365
4.7%
0
0
0.0%
13
3,287
42.5%
3
449
5.8%
2
316
4.1%
In Construction
Total
3.9%
Central Business District Performance - All Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$146.18
All Hotels Penetration vs. Market Total
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
Δ RevPAR
Year
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
2010
74.5%
$108.92
-
2010
116.7%
147.5%
172.1%
2011
77.0%
3.4%
$158.56
8.5%
$122.17
12.2%
2011
115.5%
151.2%
174.7%
2012
77.7%
0.9%
$173.58
9.5%
$134.93
10.5%
2012
113.8%
153.6%
174.8%
2013
78.4%
0.8%
$188.39
8.5%
$147.63
9.4%
2013
109.7%
158.2%
173.6%
2014
79.3%
1.2%
$203.78
8.2%
$161.53
9.4%
2014
109.5%
160.6%
175.8%
1Q14 YTD
79.8%
-1.0%
$216.62
9.4%
$172.94
8.3%
1Q14 YTD
111.2%
163.0%
181.4%
1Q15 YTD
81.1%
1.6%
$236.03
9.0%
$191.40
10.7%
1Q15 YTD
109.7%
165.6%
Central Business District Performance - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$158.89
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
Δ RevPAR
Upper-Priced Penetration vs. Market Total
2010
76.3%
$121.22
-
140
2011
78.6%
3.1%
$171.93
8.2%
$135.19
11.5%
130
2012
79.4%
1.0%
$188.77
9.8%
$149.91
10.9%
2013
78.7%
-0.9%
$206.49
9.4%
$162.57
8.4%
2014
79.9%
1.5%
$222.42
7.7%
$177.77
9.3%
1Q14 YTD
80.9%
-0.3%
$236.60
8.7%
$191.41
8.4%
1Q15 YTD
80.9%
0.0%
$257.29
8.7%
$208.22
8.8%
120
110
100
2010
Central Business District Performance - Lower-Priced Hotels
2011
Market
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
2010
67.7%
-
$91.58
-
$62.03
-
2011
70.7%
4.4%
$99.23
8.3%
$70.19
13.2%
2012
71.2%
0.7%
$107.67
8.5%
$76.66
9.2%
2013
77.0%
8.1%
$118.51
10.1%
$91.22
19.0%
2014
76.7%
-0.3%
$129.67
9.4%
$99.51
9.1%
120
1Q14 YTD
75.8%
-3.8%
$135.17
9.3%
$102.39
5.2%
100
1Q15 YTD
81.8%
8.0%
$145.76
7.8%
$119.20
16.4%
Year
181.7%
Source: STR Inc.
Source: STR Inc.
2012
Occ
2013
ADR
2014
RevPAR
Lower-Priced Penetration vs. Market Total
180
160
140
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Submarket Profile - US-290 / I-35 Area
Total Rooms:
The Austin 290 / I-35 corridor of hotels are focused directly on I-35
supported by state government and support firms.
Submarket Rank*
7,023
2
63%
Out of 5
quarters.
US-290 / I-35 Area Submarket Inventory
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Inventory
10
Properties
1,815
Rooms
25.8%
% Submkt.
Inventory
48
Properties
5,208
Rooms
74.2%
% Submkt.
DoubleTree
1
350
5.0%
Motel 6
4
498
Courtyard
2
343
4.9%
Super 8
3
325
4.6%
Crowne Plaza
1
293
4.2%
Quality Inn
1
290
4.1%
US-290 / I-35 Area Construction Pipeline
Source: STR Inc.
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Phase
7.1%
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
Planning
2
278
4.0%
1
70
1.0%
0
0
0.0%
Final Planning
2
256
3.6%
1
120
1.7%
0
0
0.0%
In Construction
1
97
1.4%
2
164
2.3%
0
0
0.0%
Total
5
631
9.0%
4
354
5.0%
0
0
0.0%
US-290 / I-35 Area Performance - All Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$68.38
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
Δ RevPAR
Year
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
2010
57.6%
$39.38
-
2010
90.2%
69.0%
62.2%
2011
59.9%
4.0%
$73.10
6.9%
$43.78
11.2%
2011
89.8%
69.7%
62.6%
2012
63.2%
5.5%
$76.50
4.6%
$48.35
10.4%
2012
92.5%
67.7%
62.6%
2013
68.0%
7.6%
$79.02
3.3%
$53.72
11.1%
2013
95.2%
66.4%
63.2%
2014
69.5%
2.2%
$83.57
5.8%
$58.06
8.1%
2014
95.9%
65.9%
63.2%
1Q14 YTD
68.7%
1.2%
$88.62
4.1%
$60.91
5.3%
1Q14 YTD
95.8%
66.7%
63.9%
1Q15 YTD
72.5%
5.5%
$94.29
6.4%
$68.36
12.2%
1Q15 YTD
98.1%
66.2%
US-290 / I-35 Area Performance - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$100.71
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
Δ RevPAR
2010
61.4%
$61.84
-
2011
66.0%
7.5%
$106.30
5.5%
$70.14
13.4%
2012
70.1%
6.2%
$110.09
3.6%
$77.12
10.0%
90
2013
76.6%
9.3%
$113.69
3.3%
$87.09
12.9%
80
2014
75.6%
-1.3%
$120.05
5.6%
$90.74
4.2%
70
1Q14 YTD
74.6%
-3.9%
$129.55
5.0%
$96.62
0.9%
60
1Q15 YTD
78.4%
5.1%
$137.98
6.5%
$108.18
12.0%
100
2010
US-290 / I-35 Area Performance - Lower-Priced Hotels
2011
Market
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
2010
56.3%
-
$56.63
-
$31.89
-
2011
57.9%
2.7%
$60.47
6.8%
$34.99
9.7%
95
2012
60.9%
5.3%
$63.66
5.3%
$38.78
10.8%
90
2013
65.1%
6.9%
$65.49
2.9%
$42.65
10.0%
85
2014
67.3%
3.4%
$69.29
5.8%
$46.66
9.4%
80
1Q14 YTD
66.7%
3.1%
$72.66
3.9%
$48.46
7.0%
75
1Q15 YTD
70.4%
5.6%
$77.34
6.4%
$54.48
12.4%
Year
64.9%
Source: STR Inc.
Source: STR Inc.
2012
Occ
2013
ADR
2014
RevPAR
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Submarket Profile - Round Rock / Georgetown
The Round Rock / Georgetown area submarket is the seat of the
second fastest growing county in the nation that includes the
comunities of Saledo and Walburg.
Total Rooms:
Submarket Rank*
3,594
3
64%
Out of 5
quarters.
Round Rock / Georgetown Submarket Inventory
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Inventory
7
Properties
926
Rooms
25.8%
% Submkt.
Inventory
36
Properties
2,668
Rooms
74.2%
% Submkt.
Marriott
1
295
8.2%
3
301
8.4%
Hilton Garden Inn
1
122
3.4%
2
242
6.7%
Homewood Suites
1
115
3.2%
Candlewood Suites
2
168
Round Rock / Georgetown Construction Pipeline
Phase
Properties
4.7%
Source: STR Inc.
Upper-Priced
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Lower-Priced
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
Planning
0
0
0.0%
2
162
4.5%
0
0
0.0%
Final Planning
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
In Construction
1
224
6.2%
4
309
8.6%
0
0
0.0%
Total
1
224
6.2%
6
471
13.1%
0
0
0.0%
Round Rock / Georgetown Performance - All Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
$44.37
Δ RevPAR
Year
-
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
2010
59.1%
-
$75.08
2010
92.5%
75.8%
70.1%
2011
58.5%
-1.0%
$77.39
3.1%
$45.30
2.1%
2011
87.8%
73.8%
64.8%
2012
59.4%
1.5%
$81.55
5.4%
$48.47
7.0%
2012
87.0%
72.2%
62.8%
2013
65.3%
9.9%
$82.88
1.6%
$54.13
11.7%
2013
91.4%
69.6%
63.7%
2014
67.8%
3.8%
$87.74
5.9%
$59.47
9.9%
2014
93.6%
69.1%
64.7%
1Q14 YTD
68.5%
7.0%
$88.91
4.2%
$60.88
11.4%
1Q14 YTD
95.4%
66.9%
63.8%
1Q15 YTD
67.6%
-1.3%
$93.29
4.9%
$63.07
3.6%
1Q15 YTD
91.5%
65.4%
59.9%
Round Rock / Georgetown Performance - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$104.72
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
$65.49
Source: STR Inc.
Δ RevPAR
2010
62.5%
2011
63.2%
1.0%
$107.56
2.7%
$67.96
3.8%
-
2012
62.3%
-1.4%
$112.08
4.2%
$69.86
2.8%
85
2013
66.9%
7.4%
$115.31
2.9%
$77.19
10.5%
75
2014
71.5%
6.8%
$118.63
2.9%
$84.85
9.9%
65
1Q14 YTD
70.7%
4.2%
$122.80
1.9%
$86.81
6.2%
55
1Q15 YTD
73.1%
3.5%
$126.48
3.0%
$92.52
6.6%
95
2010
Round Rock / Georgetown Performance - Lower-Priced Hotels
Market
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
2010
57.8%
-
$62.55
-
$36.13
-
2011
56.7%
-1.8%
$64.29
2.8%
$36.47
0.9%
100
2012
58.4%
2.9%
$69.44
8.0%
$40.52
11.1%
95
2013
64.7%
10.9%
$70.83
2.0%
$45.84
13.1%
90
2014
66.4%
2.7%
$75.79
7.0%
$50.35
9.8%
85
1Q14 YTD
67.7%
8.0%
$76.19
6.4%
$51.56
14.9%
80
1Q15 YTD
65.6%
-3.0%
$80.16
5.2%
$52.61
2.0%
Year
2011
Source: STR Inc.
2012
Occ
2013
ADR
2014
RevPAR
105
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Submarket Profile - Southwest / San Marcos
Total Rooms:
The Austin Southwest / San Marcos submarket includes the Austin
Bergstrom International Airport with several hotels located in
adjacent Del Valle. Other towns within this submarket are Lakeway
in the north, Smithville in the east, Dripping Springs and Wimberly
in the west and Lockhart in the south.
Submarket Rank*
8,806
4
89%
Out of 5
quarters.
Southwest / San Marcos Submarket Inventory
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Inventory
16
Properties
2,928
Rooms
33.3%
% Submkt.
Inventory
84
Properties
5,878
Rooms
66.7%
% Submkt.
Omni
2
621
7.1%
6
717
Hyatt Regency
1
491
5.6%
5
425
4.8%
Courtyard
3
357
4.1%
Comfort Suites
4
278
3.2%
Southwest / San Marcos Construction Pipeline
Source: STR Inc.
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Phase
8.1%
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
Planning
2
266
3.0%
5
372
4.2%
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
Final Planning
4
396
4.5%
3
247
2.8%
0
0
0.0%
In Construction
3
355
4.0%
4
347
3.9%
0
0
0.0%
Total
9
1,017
11.5%
12
966
11.0%
0
0
0.0%
Southwest / San Marcos Performance - All Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
-
ADR
$97.37
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
Δ RevPAR
Year
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
2010
60.1%
$58.57
-
2010
94.2%
98.3%
92.6%
2011
64.3%
6.9%
$100.50
3.2%
$64.64
10.4%
2011
96.4%
95.8%
92.4%
2012
65.6%
2.0%
$109.45
8.9%
$71.84
11.1%
2012
96.1%
96.9%
93.1%
2013
67.6%
3.0%
$113.34
3.5%
$76.61
6.6%
2013
94.6%
95.2%
90.1%
2014
69.7%
3.1%
$118.61
4.6%
$82.64
7.9%
2014
96.2%
93.5%
89.9%
1Q14 YTD
67.1%
3.2%
$119.59
5.0%
$80.23
8.4%
1Q14 YTD
93.5%
90.0%
84.1%
1Q15 YTD
69.3%
3.3%
$124.02
3.7%
$85.93
7.1%
1Q15 YTD
93.8%
87.0%
Southwest / San Marcos Performance - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$132.85
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
$88.69
Δ RevPAR
-
2010
66.8%
2011
70.0%
4.9%
$137.87
3.8%
$96.51
8.8%
2012
72.1%
3.0%
$150.80
9.4%
$108.73
12.7%
95
2013
75.0%
4.1%
$153.73
1.9%
$115.35
6.1%
85
2014
76.8%
2.4%
$160.31
4.3%
$123.16
6.8%
1Q14 YTD
73.2%
1.2%
$160.43
4.6%
$117.43
5.9%
1Q15 YTD
74.4%
1.7%
$168.36
4.9%
$125.27
6.7%
105
75
2010
Southwest / San Marcos Performance - Lower-Priced Hotels
2011
Market
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
2010
56.6%
-
$74.74
-
$42.28
-
115
2011
61.3%
8.3%
$77.65
3.9%
$47.59
12.6%
110
2012
62.2%
1.5%
$83.86
8.0%
$52.14
9.6%
105
2013
63.9%
2.7%
$89.45
6.7%
$57.12
9.5%
100
2014
66.1%
3.5%
$94.43
5.6%
$62.42
9.3%
95
1Q14 YTD
64.1%
4.5%
$96.42
7.0%
$61.77
11.8%
90
1Q15 YTD
66.7%
4.2%
$99.28
3.0%
$66.24
7.2%
Year
81.6%
Source: STR Inc.
Source: STR Inc.
2012
Occ
2013
ADR
2014
RevPAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Submarket Profile - Northwest / Arboretum
Total Rooms:
The Austin Northwest / Arboretum submarket contains the open-air
campus-like shopping mall, The Arboretum, at the Southwest
corner of Loop 360 (Capital of Texas Highway) and Highway 183
(Research Boulevard) that support several hotels and national
retailers. Other golf and tennis lakeside communities abound such
as Lago Vista and Casa Lago Resort.
Submarket Rank*
5,236
5
91%
Out of 5
quarters.
Northwest / Arboretum Submarket Inventory
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Inventory
15
Properties
2,294
Rooms
43.8%
% Submkt.
Inventory
29
Properties
2,942
Rooms
56.2%
% Submkt.
Renaissance
1
492
9.4%
5
560
Westin
1
341
6.5%
3
304
5.8%
Staybridge Suites
2
201
3.8%
Fairfield Inn
2
218
4.2%
Northwest / Arboretum Construction Pipeline
Source: STR Inc.
Upper-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Phase
10.7%
Lower-Priced
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Properties
Rooms
% Submkt.
Unconfirmed
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
Planning
0
0
0.0%
1
168
3.2%
0
0
0.0%
Final Planning
2
217
4.1%
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0.0%
In Construction
3
351
6.7%
2
217
4.1%
0
0
0.0%
Total
5
568
10.8%
3
385
7.4%
0
0
0.0%
Northwest / Arboretum Performance - All Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$86.72
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
$59.49
Δ RevPAR
Year
-
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
2010
68.6%
2010
107.4%
87.5%
94.0%
2011
72.2%
5.2%
$89.61
3.3%
$64.68
8.7%
2011
108.2%
85.4%
92.5%
2012
73.9%
2.3%
$97.03
8.3%
$71.67
10.8%
2012
108.1%
85.9%
92.9%
2013
77.6%
5.1%
$103.16
6.3%
$80.08
11.7%
2013
108.7%
86.6%
94.2%
2014
75.1%
-3.2%
$112.52
9.1%
$84.52
5.5%
2014
103.7%
88.7%
92.0%
1Q14 YTD
75.3%
-3.7%
$118.79
10.7%
$89.49
6.7%
1Q14 YTD
105.0%
89.4%
93.8%
1Q15 YTD
77.6%
3.0%
$121.74
2.5%
$94.47
5.6%
1Q15 YTD
105.0%
85.4%
Northwest / Arboretum Performance - Upper-Priced Hotels
Year
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
-
$119.50
Δ ADR
RevPAR
-
$83.08
Δ RevPAR
-
2010
69.5%
2011
71.9%
3.4%
$124.93
4.6%
$89.84
8.1%
100
2012
74.3%
3.3%
$133.90
7.2%
$99.50
10.8%
95
2013
77.7%
4.5%
$141.48
5.7%
$109.89
10.4%
90
2014
77.0%
-0.9%
$151.18
6.9%
$116.36
5.9%
85
1Q14 YTD
77.9%
0.2%
$161.32
7.4%
$125.70
7.6%
80
1Q15 YTD
78.7%
1.0%
$167.58
3.9%
$131.89
4.9%
105
2010
Northwest / Arboretum Performance - Lower-Priced Hotels
2011
Market
Occ
Δ Occ
ADR
Δ ADR
RevPAR
Δ RevPAR
2010
67.9%
-
$60.39
-
$41.00
-
2011
72.4%
6.6%
$62.23
3.0%
$45.05
9.9%
115
2012
73.5%
1.5%
$67.71
8.8%
$49.78
10.5%
105
2013
77.6%
5.5%
$73.07
7.9%
$56.70
13.9%
2014
73.7%
-5.1%
$80.66
10.4%
$59.41
4.8%
1Q14 YTD
73.3%
-6.7%
$82.49
11.8%
$60.44
4.3%
1Q15 YTD
76.7%
4.7%
$85.09
3.2%
$65.30
8.1%
Year
89.7%
Source: STR Inc.
Source: STR Inc.
2012
Occ
2013
ADR
2014
RevPAR
95
85
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STR Inc.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Market Segments - Representative Brands
UPPER-PRICED
Fairmont
Four Seasons
Loews
Ritz Carlton
W Hotels
Embassy Suites
Hilton
Hyatt
Marriott
Westin
LOWER-PRICED
Courtyard by Marriott
Crowne Plaza
Hyatt Place
Radisson
Residence Inn
Best Western Plus
Comfort Inn
Hampton Inn
Holiday Inn
TownePlace Suites
Best Western
La Quinta
Mainstay Suites
Quality Inn
Days Inn
Econo Lodge
Red Roof
Value Place
Exhibit Definitions
Exhibit 1
Occupancy levels, ADR change and RevPAR change are plotted on a fixed "grade" scale. Measured as current value minus the
mean, divided by the series' standard deviation. Grades: A: Very strong, greater than one standard deviation above long run
average. B: Strong, within one standard deviation above long run average C: Somewhat weak, within one standard deviation
below long run average. D: Weak, below one standard deviation of the long run average.
Exhibits 2 - 5
Year over year change in Income, Employment, RevPAR and Demand, displayed as annual (Exhibits 2 and 3) and quarterly
(Exhibits 4 and 5).
Exhibit 6
Average annual Employment, Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, and Real Personal Income change for the MSA.
Exhibits 7 - 9
Index based change charts with base year 2010 = 100. These exhibits illustrate the magnitude of change.
Exhibits 10 - 12
Compound average annual RevPAR, Demand and Supply change for Upper Priced, Lower Priced, and combined (All) hotels
within the MSA.
Exhibit 13
Real RevPAR change (inflation adjusted, CPI) of the current period minus the historical mean of Real RevPAR change, divided by
the historical standard deviation of Real RevPAR change.
Financial Benchmarks
The financial benchmarks come from the 2015 edition (2014 data) of Trends® in the Hotel Industry. Trends® is PKF Hospitality Research’s annual
analysis of hotel financial statements received from thousands of properties located across the nation. These data serve as financial
performance benchmarks for hotels within the designated market. The average room count, occupancy, and ADR of upper-priced hotels were
used to analyze the performance of full-service hotels. The average room count, occupancy, and ADR of lower-priced hotels were used to
analyze the performance of limited-service hotels. For a more in-depth report with a custom comparable set designed for your individual
property, see our PKF-HR BenchmarkerSM service. (store.pkfc.com/custom-financial-benchmarking-reports)
How We Forecast
PKF Hospitality Research, A CBRE Company (PKF-HR) prepares hotel market forecasts based on accepted econometric procedures and sound
judgment. The two-stage process for producing the forecasts firstly involves econometric estimation of future hotel market activity and financial
performance based on historical relationships between economic and hotel market variables, and secondly, a judgmental review of modeled
outputs by experienced hotel market analysts. The hotel industry expertise of PKF dates back to the 1930s. PKF-HR and others believe that
errors in forecasting are minimized by relying on both data analytics and judgment.
Econometric Models
Econometric forecasting represents one of the most sophisticated approaches to gaining insight into future economic activity. Unlike some
forecasting methods used in business practice, the models that underlie econometric forecasts contain variables based in economic theory. The
forecasts come from historical relationships, similar to statistical correlations, among hotel market measures and economic variables. The
measures for the variables come from actual market transactions involving individuals and firms interacting in the economy.
Positive Features of Econometric Models:
•
The variables included in the models follow from economic theory.
•
The relationships between variables are estimated with advanced statistical methods.
•
The forecasts developed with econometric models are objectively determined, unlike forecasts based only on judgmental approaches.
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Gaining insight into the futures of complicated economic environments requires the introduction of multi-level forecasting models. Several
equations often need to be identified and estimated to model complex economic conditions such as the national economy. Multi-equation models
have considerable appeal for economic forecasting because they explicitly recognize the interdependence of relationships commonly
encountered in markets. Perhaps the best example of this type of model is one that involves both the demand side and the supply side of
markets, in which prices of goods are set by the interaction of buyers and sellers. Thus, price appears as a variable in both the demand and
supply equations.
The Equations
The Hotel Horizons® econometric forecasting models fall into the category of multi-equation, demand and supply models. These models have
the structure defined below, but vary in their construction for particular market applications (e.g., different cities and hotel market segments).
The three estimated equations are:
1.
Demand for hotel rooms is primarily driven by the general level of economic activity in the nation or city, as measured by income and
employment. The equation recognizes the fundamental relationship between room purchasing behavior and either growth or decline
in the relevant economy. Both economic theory and historical data relationships strongly support the inclusion of ADR in the demand
equation because lower ADRs motivate increases in travel and leisure spending, while higher ADRs motivate decreases.
2.
Supply change - In historical lodging data, a strong relationship exists between growth in the supply of new hotel rooms and priorperiod lodging market conditions. In the equation, new hotel room growth in modeled as a function of past levels of new room growth,
past ADR, and past occupancy levels.
3.
ADR movements are correlated with room scarcity in the market. The equation which estimates ADR defines ADR as a function of
past room rates and contemporaneous occupancy levels.
The parameters ( i.e., coefficients on each variable) then are used to forecast demand, supply change, and RADR by multiplying the parameters
by CBRE Econometric Advisors and Moody’s Analytics forecasts of the economic variables and relevant previously estimated values (lagged
variables). Three additional calculations are made with these results, as follows:
1.
Supply change is added to the previous-period number of available rooms to produce an available rooms level in future periods.
2.
Number of rooms sold is divided by number of available rooms to obtain occupancy percent in each future period.
3.
Expected inflation is added to real ADR to convert to nominal ADR.
Judgmental Intervention
A committee of hotel experts from PKF-HR and CBRE Hotels performs a thorough review of each model prediction. These assessments are
made by locally-based hotel experts working in the various offices around the U.S. The quarterly forecasts for the current and forecast period
years are subject to review. The committee modifies the model’s market prediction when there is compelling evidence that factors have come
into play that the model could not possibly foresee. A Super Bowl-type event, as an extreme example, would cause the committee’s forecast to
differ noticeably from the model's prediction—not only in the city in which the event will occur, but also competing cities within the region. In
most instances, however, the committee either defers to the model prediction or makes modest adjustments.
Economic Data from April 2015
Hotel Data from March 2015
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
What Has Changed Since The Last Report?
Forecasts are valuable tools for developing expectations of key variables. Changes to forecasts occur for two primary reasons. The first is
adjustments to historical series made by the data provider, causing future periods to vary due to changes in their base. The second is that
economic expectations tend to shift as more information becomes available, thus moving the hotel variables according to their underlying
relationships. We are constantly re-evaluating the performance of our forecasts, and presented below is a view on how the world has
changed since the March - May 2015 issue, presented in same period, prior year change format. All data under "This Report" are actual
through 1st Quarter 2015. Data marked as "Last Report" are actual through 4th Quarter 2014 with 1st Quarter 2015 being the first forecast
period for that report. As noted on earlier pages, all of the hotel variables below are modeled using data from Moody's Analytics. It is
important to note that all historical data are subject to revision.
At the beginning of each year, STR Inc., our source for historical lodging data, repositions the chain-scale classifications for branded
properties, and chain-class categories for independent hotels. The reclassifications are based on the ADR achieved the prior year. Because
®
of these reclassifications, the historical data presented in this report may differ from the historical data presented in prior Hotel Horizons
reports. Further, the reclassifications may have influenced our forecasts of future performance.
2015
2015
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr F
3rd Qtr F
4th Qtr F
Year End
2016
2016
2017
2017
Year End
Year End
Change in Real Personal Income*
This Report
5.8%
6.2%
6.3%
5.9%
6.1%
4.3%
3.7%
Last Report
5.1%
5.3%
5.7%
6.1%
5.6%
5.4%
4.4%
Change in Total Payroll Employment*
This Report
4.1%
4.0%
3.8%
3.4%
3.8%
3.0%
2.8%
Last Report
3.6%
3.7%
3.9%
4.2%
3.9%
4.0%
3.3%
Change in Supply**
This Report
3.3%
5.1%
8.4%
9.9%
6.7%
9.1%
7.6%
Last Report
4.8%
7.4%
8.7%
9.4%
7.6%
7.2%
6.8%
This Report
6.4%
3.6%
4.9%
6.2%
5.2%
5.6%
5.1%
Last Report
5.1%
5.8%
6.2%
7.0%
6.1%
4.3%
4.7%
Change in Demand**
Change in Occupancy**
This Report
3.0%
-1.4%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-1.4%
-3.2%
-2.3%
Last Report
0.4%
-1.5%
-2.3%
-2.1%
-1.4%
-2.6%
-2.0%
4.5%
4.9%
2.5%
2.2%
3.8%
4.6%
3.0%
2.7%
Change in ADR**
This Report
7.3%
2.4%
5.2%
Last Report
3.9%
5.0%
5.7%
Change in RevPAR**
This Report
10.5%
0.9%
1.8%
1.0%
3.5%
-0.9%
-0.2%
Last Report
4.3%
3.4%
3.3%
1.6%
3.1%
0.2%
0.6%
* Economic data (history and forecast) are from CBRE EA
** Hotel performance data: History supplied by STR Inc.; Forecast developed by PKF Hospitality Research
2015 and 2016 Year End Forecast Change in RevPAR
3.5%
2015
2016
3.1%
0.2%
-0.9%
This Report
Last Report
HOTEL HORIZONS®
AUSTIN
Hotel Horizons® myShare®
Hotel Horizons® myShare® is an informed way to estimate the future performance of any submarket, competitive set, or subject property
based on the behavior of the overall market. Seventy five to eighty percent of all occupancy and rate movements experienced by a
property, or group of properties, can be explained through movements in the larger market. The remaining twenty to twenty-five percent is
endemic to the property or submarket itself, and those individuals who deal with the day to day operations of these properties are best
suited to understand and account for these differences.
The Penetration Rate
myShare® utilizes historical penetration rates of the submarket, competitive set, and subject property to the larger market to produce
informed micro-forecasts. myShare® gives the user the tools necessary to understand the historic movements of their subset, and apply
that knowledge to future periods in time. myShare® is being introduced on a complimentary basis in time for budget season, and is included
with every Hotel Horizons single market report, including this one. Check your original download or email [email protected].
View the video tutorial online at:
store.pkfc.com/hotel-horizons-reports
HOSPITALITY
RESEARCH
HOTEL HORIZONS®
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Glossary of Terms
ADR
Average Daily Rate - rooms revenue divided by paid rooms occupied.
Occupancy
Paid rooms occupied divided by available rooms.
RevPAR
Revenue per Available Room - rooms revenue divided by available rooms.
Supply
Average daily room nights available per quarter, represented as a change over previous year, same quarter except
where noted annually.
Demand
(Accommodated Demand) Average daily room nights occupied per quarter, represented as a change over previous year,
same quarter except where noted annually.
LRA
Long Run Average - Annual average from 1988 to 2014
Penetration
Market area (or sub-market area) measurement as a percent of national (or market area) measurement.
Standard Deviation
The plotting of a normal data series and how far each individual data point lies from the mean: 68.2% of the series will fall
within 1 standard deviation, 95.4% of all data points will fall within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7%
falling within 3 standard deviations of the mean.
Houston
Philadelphia
Contact: Randy McCaslin
[email protected]
Contact: Peter Tyson
[email protected]
Indianapolis
San Francisco
A CBRE COMPANY
Contact: Mark Eble
[email protected]
Contact: Tom Callahan
[email protected]
Advisory &
Consulting Services
Jacksonville
Seattle
Contact: Hank Staley
[email protected]
Contact: Scott Biethan
[email protected]
Los Angeles
Washington, D.C.
Contact: Bruce Baltin
[email protected]
Contact: Jeff Lugosi
[email protected]
Contact: Kannan Sankaran
[email protected]
CONSULTING
USA
Atlanta
Contact: Scott Smith
[email protected]
Contact: Jill Bidwell
[email protected]
Boston
Contact: Andrea Foster
[email protected]
Bozeman, MT
Contact: Christopher Kraus
[email protected]
Chicago
Contact: Mark Eble
[email protected]
Nashville
Contact: Heidi Burns
[email protected]
New York
Contact: Mark Van Stekelenburg
[email protected]
HOSPITALITY
RESEARCH
A CBRE COMPANY
Industry Research
& Publications
Dallas
Orlando / Tampa
Atlanta
Contact: Jeff Binford
[email protected]
Contact: Chuck Ross
[email protected]
Contact: Mark Woodworth
[email protected]
For more reports visit our store at
https://store.pkfc.com/hotel-forecast-reports
Hotel Horizons® is compiled and produced by PKF Hospitality Research, the research affiliate of PKF Consulting USA, a CBRE Company. Readers are advised
that neither PKF Consulting USA nor PKF Hospitality Research represent the data herein to be definitive, neither should the contents be construed as a
recommendation on policies or actions. Quotation, reproduction or transmittal (in any form or by any means, whether electronic, photocopying, recording or
otherwise) is not permitted without consent from PKF Hospitality Research. Please address inquiries to Hotel Horizons®, 3475 Lenox Road, Suite 720, Atlanta
GA 30326. Phone: (404) 809-3969. Copyright © 2015 PKF Hospitality Research. All rights reserved.
Addendum C
ADDENDUM C
Engagement Letter
May 13, 2015
Mr. Scott Sellers
City of Kyle
100 W. Center Street
Kyle, Texas 78640
RE: Market Study for a Hotel in Kyle, Texas
Dear Mr. Sellers:
Stone Hospitality & Real Estate, is pleased to submit our proposal to conduct a hotel market study and
financial projections for a hotel to be developed on a pre-determined site to be designated by Kyle Economic
Development in Kyle, Texas. It is our understanding that the market study is to be used as a piece of the
development decision making process, as well as in a presentation to governing entities in the area.
We take pride in our relentless effort to provide the most accurate and pertinent studies for each client.
Our expert analysis and attention to specific market details sets us apart from other firms in the industry.
Each project is uniquely and individually considered by our team to insure the highest quality report
acceptable by institutions, lenders, developers, and industry professionals.
This proposal sets forth the objective and scope of our work and the time requirements and fees associated
with our services. Please contact Jeremy Stone at (832) 541-2651 or [email protected] with any
questions regarding this proposal.
Sincerely,
Jeremy Stone, PhD
Principal
www.stonehre.com • Telephone 832.541.2651
PROPOSED OBJECTIVE AND COST
OBJECTIVE / PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE ASSIGNMENT
The City of Kyle is trying to determine whether a hotel can be supported within the Kyle local and regional
marketplace. Also, to determine what the specifics of location, sizing, and performance for such a facility
might be upon completion. Our role, as we view it, will be to:
•
Perform an in-depth evaluation of the market for operation of a hotel facility.
•
Investigate potential and existing demand on a local and regional scale to determine market
sources of demand including transient, weekday/weekend meeting demand characteristics and
other trends pertinent to the project.
•
Develop recommendations pertaining to the nature and extent of facilities and services that would
be the most effective in attracting and accommodating the identified and existing market sources
of demand, and evaluate the proposed facilities’ ability to meet future needs.
The scope of our work will include, but not necessarily be limited to, the following:
Market Analysis
This portion of our study will include the following procedures:
•
Meet with you and/or your associates in order to obtain input from you that confirms or amends
our understanding of the details of the project and provides additional pertinent information
such as plot plans, appraisals and other material you may have related to the project.
•
Inspect the site and local market and the surrounding area in order to determine their impact
on the performance of the proposed hotel. Such determination will not include any engineering
or environmental considerations, but will encompass an evaluation of the property’s
accessibility, visibility, proximity to lodging demand generators, and physical characteristics
that might affect the marketability of the proposed development.
•
Gather information regarding the level and characteristics of demand likely to be generated for
the proposed hotel.
•
Evaluate existing and proposed transportation patterns in the subject area to determine their
impact on the marketability of the proposed facilities.
•
Evaluate the existing supply of transient lodging serving the primary market to determine the
degree of competition they are likely to offer the proposed hotel. This evaluation would include
interviews with management representatives of the competitive hotels. We will establish:
o Levels of market support
o Pricing/marketing practices
o Major customers
o Business outlook
o Facility characteristics
•
Develop a census of competitive lodging facilities for the proposed hotel. We will evaluate
both Kyle area competitors and other hotels located in the region. This census will include the
following factors:
Proposal to Conduct a Hotel Market Study and Financial Projections
May 13, 2015
Page 2
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
•
Name
Location
Number of rooms
Meeting space and other amenities
Date opened and/or last renovated
Franchise/management affiliation
Current and, if available, historical market mix
Current and historical occupancy and room rates (in the aggregate to protect
confidentiality)
Analyze relevant basic socioeconomic characteristics of the primary and secondary market
areas and the growth potential of possible market sources of demand for the facilities.
Recommended Facilities and Operational Strategy
In this portion of our study, we will develop final conclusions and recommendations regarding:
•
Suitability of the proposed facilities and site
•
Identified market sources of demand
•
Specific facilities and services that would be needed to attract and accommodate the identified
demand sources:
o Number and size of meeting rooms
o Number of lodging units
o Amenities package
o Service levels required
o Identify other potential components that complement the project
•
Estimate occupancy and average daily rate.
Preliminary Estimates of Financial Performance
At this point in our study, we will begin the analysis of the proposed project in terms of:
•
Estimate financial performance based on recommended facilities
We will prepare estimates of annual revenue and expenses for each of the major components of the
development to the point of cash flow from operations available for debt service and income taxes for the
first five years of operation. The bases for the prospective financial analysis and key assumptions
underlying inflation estimates will be indicated in the financial section of the report.
Executive Summary Report
At the conclusion of this portion of our study, we will prepare a formal written report for the development
setting forth our findings, conclusions and recommendations concerning the proposed project; the extent
of this written report will depend upon your needs for internal use and distribution for project development
and/or financing purposes. The following topic headings provide an overview of the expected content:
May 13, 2015
Page 3
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Executive Summary
Area Economic Overview
Site Evaluation
Recommended Facilities
Historic Competitive Market
Prospective Future Competitive Market
Attainable Competitive Position
Prospective Financial Analysis
FUTURE ADDITIONAL STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS
Depending on the outcome and results of the market study, there may be additional areas that could be
considered for additional study and analysis and is not contained within the scope of this proposal; such
as:
•
•
•
CLIENT
Feasibility and Financial Gap Analysis
Economic Impact Study
Conference Center Market Analysis
It is our understanding that the report will be used for internal decision-making within the development
entity and in a presentation to the governing entity of the proposed site of the hotel. We request that you
seek our written authorization before releasing the report to any other party. Payment for these services
is not contingent upon the closing of a loan or funding. For purposes of payment the client will be the
authorized person that signs this proposal.
LIMITING CONDITIONS
The report will be subject to the attached standard statement of assumptions and limiting conditions.
TIMING
Based on our current scheduling, we would be able to commence this assignment within one to two weeks
of receiving your retainer and authorization to proceed. The report will be delivered within four to six
weeks after receipt of your written authorization (signed proposal), retainer and the required information.
Failure to provide the requested information in a timely fashion may delay the delivery of the final report.
Stone Hospitality and Real Estate reserves the right to modify its delivery date and fee where significant
delays are encountered.
FEE
Our fees are based on the amount of time required to ensure high quality service. Based on our experience
from similar advisory engagements, we have estimated our fees for the above services (excluding outof-pocket expenses) at $15,000 for the scope included above.
Out-of-pocket expenses (i.e. data costs, mileage, etc.) will be invoiced in addition to the professional fees
above. This will not exceed $2,000 without prior written consent from the client.
May 13, 2015
Page 4
We will communicate the status of our work throughout the engagement. We will provide our findings to
you in a written report. Our report may not be suited for every purpose and as such will be restricted for
your internal use only.
Firm policy requires a retainer of $6,000 prior to commencement of the engagement. The base fee
includes typical liaison with the client and a presentation to the appropriate group along with one round of
draft revisions. Balance of entire fee is due prior to the delivery of a final report. Any additional meetings
will be billed at our standard hourly rate in addition to the base fee.
Our fee for this engagement is based upon the estimated amount of time spent in the performance of the
work as outlined above at our standard rates. These hourly rates will apply to any additional services
beyond the scope as outlined herein.
Principals
Consultants
$250 - $300
$100 - $250
The client may stop the additional professional services at any time by depositing a written stop work notice
with Stone Hospitality and Real Estate. Client agrees to pay for all work done up to the date of deposit of
the stop work with Stone Hospitality and Real Estate.
ENGAGEMENT TEAM
For efficiency in communication, Jeremy Stone, Principal, will act as engagement coordinator.
necessary ancillary services will function under the direction of Stone Hospitality and Real Estate.
Any
ACCEPTANCE PROCEDURES
We appreciate the opportunity to submit this proposal for our services. We invite any questions you may
have about the scope and detail of this proposal. If you wish for us to proceed on the basis set forth,
please return this contract with your written authorization and the appropriate retainer, if applicable. If
you have any questions, please call 832-541-2651.
Sincerely,
Jeremy Stone, PhD
Principal
ACCEPTED BY:
______________________________________________
Signature
______________________________________________
Name Printed
______________________________________________
Title
______________________________________________
Company or Venture
______________________________________________
Date
May 13, 2015
Page 5
Addendum D
ADDENDUM D
Qualifications
FIRM BACKGROUND AND EXPERIENCE
Jeremy Stone, PhD
Principal
Dr. Stone is an expert in hospitality related real estate
consulting, including general and special purpose real estate
consultation and valuation, development consulting, site
selection analyses, market trends
and feasibility studies, sales and
marketing analyses and consulting,
market demand and absorption
studies, investment analysis, due
diligence investigations, portfolio
valuations
and
development
management.
Dr. Stone has done extensive work in the areas of
development, underwriting, feasibility, appraisals, due
diligence, and disposition strategies and has been involved in
the feasibility work for numerous hotels, resorts,
conference/convention centers and golf courses.
Prior to starting Stone Hospitality and Real Estate, Jeremy was
a Vice President with Kairos Hospitality, a full-service,
boutique hospitality consulting and brokerage company. Dr.
Stone also spent many years consulting and appraising in the
hospitality industry for PKF Consulting. Specific areas of focus
included the following:
•
Market demand analysis.
•
Facility sizing and building program analysis.
•
Financial operating analysis.
•
Economic and fiscal impact analysis.
•
Project funding analysis.
•
Site/location analysis.
•
Operational and management structure analysis.
•
Marketing strategy development analysis.
Education:
Recent Representative Projects:
Barton Creek Resort and Spa
Austin, TX
The Summit at Rivery Park
Georgetown, TX
Proposed Tyler Hotel Conference Center
Tyler, TX
Bachelor of Environmental Design
Texas A&M University
M.S. in Land Development
Ph.D. in Urban and Regional Science
Certificate in Historic Preservation
May 13, 2015
Page 6
Capital City Center Crowne Plaza
Jackson, MS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ASSOCIATED PROJECTS
Jeremy Stone, PhD has been involved in a real estate advisory capacity for a number of properties in a conference
or convention market. His range of involvement includes preliminary consulting, market analysis, supply and
demand analysis, financial feasibility, market surveys, space and sizing analysis, appraisal, and valuation. The
following are representative projects:
Existing Markets and Facilities
•
Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort – Ocean Center Daytona Beach, FL
•
Holiday Inn Superdome – New Orleans, LA
•
Hilton Palacio Del Rio – San Antonio Convention Center – San Antonio, TX
•
Miller & Rhoads Building – Hilton Garden Inn adjacent to Greater Richmond
Convention Center – Richmond, VA
•
Intercontinental Hotel – New Orleans, LA
•
Barton Creek Resort & Spa – Austin, TX
•
Hilton Houston Plaza at Medical Center – Houston, TX
•
Hilton Lafayette – Lafayette, LA
Proposed Facilities
•
Proposed Headquarters Hotel at the New Convention Center – Oklahoma City, OK
•
Proposed Hotel in the City of Rowlett – Rowlett, TX
•
Proposed Crowne Plaza at the Convention Center – Jackson, MS
•
Proposed Hotel & Conference Center – for the City of Tyler, TX
•
Proposed Summit at Rivery Park Hotel & Conference Center – Georgetown, TX
•
Proposed Renaissance Hotel at Legacy – Plano, TX
•
Proposed Executive Conference Center Hotel – Prescott, AZ
•
Proposed Storyville Hotel & Conference Center – New Orleans, LA
•
Proposed Westin Hotel – for the Lafayette Economic Development Authority, LA
•
Proposed Hotel & Conference Center – Grapevine, TX
•
Proposed Renaissance Hotel & Conference Center – Baton Rouge, LA
•
Proposed Hotel at the World Trade Center – New Orleans, LA
•
Proposed Embassy Suites at Convention Center/Six Flags – Arlington, TX
•
Proposed Pointe Vista Master planned Development – Lake Texoma, OK
JEREMY STONE
[email protected]
308 Highland Park Lane
Wylie, Texas 75098 USA
Tel: +1 832 541 2651 (cell)
BUSINESS EXPERIENCE
Principal, Stone Hospitality and Real Estate, Wylie, Texas, 2010-present
 Providing contracted, independent consulting services to the commercial real estate and hospitality
industries, including:
 Mass commercial appraisal assistance with Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC)
 Hospitality focused appraisal with Real Estate Research Corporation Hospitality (RERCH)
 Supply and demand analysis for recreational assets in a 26,000-acre National Park Service
operated park in conjunction with Capital Hotel Management (CHM) Government Services
team
 Litigation support and subject matter consulting
 Real estate development and financial modeling
 Due diligence / underwriting services
 Management and development consulting for hospitality brokerage provider
Vice President, Kairos Hospitality Real Estate Capital, 1 McKinney, Texas, 2010-2012
 Kairos is a firm of management and development consultants, industry specialists and brokers, who
provide a full range of services to the real estate and hospitality industries
 Performed asset analysis for existing or to be developed luxury resorts and hotels in a variety
of North American markets
 Responsible for preparations to execute long-term asset management agreements upon closing
of any resort, hotel, or golf assets
 Active in identifying potential off-market assets and modeling the feasibility of a purchase
based on client requirements and parameters and return on investment
Senior Consultant, PKF Consulting, 2 Dallas, Texas, 2007-2010
 Provided development consulting, market, and financial services for real estate projects, including:
 Market and financial feasibility analysis for hotel, resort, golf, residential, retail, and mixed-use
developments in various size markets
 Appraisal for hotels, golf courses, and associated facilities
 Real estate development and financial modeling
 Asset management – analysis and reporting
 Strategic market analysis for residential, golf, and resort communities
 Market research for acquisition and operation of commercial, golf, and resort properties
primarily in the hospitality industry
 Assistance in rebranding and repositioning of hospitality assets
 Market research for cities looking for public / private development projects involving mixeduse, hotel, and conference center properties
 Market and financial analysis for government entities such as the National Park Service and the
United States Armed Services
Principal, Stone Consulting, College Station, Texas, 2002-2004
Consulted to private entities and municipalities in the areas of project management, market analysis,
financial feasibility, design, and development; including golf course renovation
1
Kairos Hospitality Real Estate Capital is comprised of real estate, hotel, resort and golf industry experts specifically skilled to help advise, value, broker,
manage and develop real estate and hospitality related assets.
2
PKF specializes in providing real estate consulting services in the hospitality industry.
May 13, 2015
Page 8
Director of Golf, American Golf Corporation, Bryan Golf Course, Bryan, Texas, 1999-2002
Assisted in the general management of the facility. Responsible for budgeting, capital improvements,
business planning, hiring and termination of employees, payroll, merchandising, sales team, inventory,
marketing/advertising, and day-to-day accounting
Event Coordinator, American Golf Corporation, Bryan Golf Course, Bryan, Texas, 1996-1999
Planning, staffing, and administering all golf events and tournaments - increased tournament sales by 147%
during tenure
ACADEMIC FACULTY EXPERIENCE
Lecturer, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, Department of Property, 2005-2007
 Provided instruction through lectures
 Developed curriculum and materials for undergraduate and postgraduate courses, including:
Undergraduate classes taught
Graduate classes taught

Property Management
 Sustainable Development

Portfolio / Asset Management
 Methods and Practices for Policy Development

Property Project - Directed Study in Property
 Advanced Planning Studio
Development, Investment, and Management
 Urban Development Processes

Research Methods in Policy Analysis
Postgraduate Advisor, University of Auckland, Department of Property, 2005-2007
 Advised local and international students on coursework, academic, and
professional requirements, and research issues
Visiting Professor, Blinn College, Bryan, Texas, 2004
Taught courses in:
 Principles of Marketing
PUBLICATIONS



Property Management
“The Influence of Vintage on House Value,” Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, V. 12, No. 3,
September 2006 (co-author)
Monthly article in Greater Dallas Hotel Association Newsletter, 2007-2010 (author)
AFFILIATIONS



Urban Land Institute (member)
Appraisal Institute (Associate member)
Beta Gamma Sigma International Honor Society (member)
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Urban and Regional Science, Texas A&M University, August 2002
Dissertation: Retail Property Performance: An Examination of the Influence of Size, Age,
and Renovation on the Internal Rate of Return
M.S., Land Development, Texas A&M University, December 2000
B.E.D. (Environmental Design), Texas A&M University, December 1996
Certificate in Historic Preservation, August 2002
May 13, 2015
Page 9
SELECT REFERENCES
Jeremy Stone, PhD began Stone Hospitality and Real Estate in 2010 after leaving PKF Consulting. Jeremy’s
broad range of international experience comes from 14 years in hospitality operations, consulting, and 3 years
of teaching at both the graduate and undergraduate university level. He has taught in the subject areas of Real
Estate Research, Property Management, Real Estate Development, Sustainable Development, Asset
Management, Real Estate Market Analysis, Urban Design and Marketing to name a few.
Please find the following select references for your review in the potential engagement:
City of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Cathy O’Connor
([email protected])
President, The Alliance for Economic
Development of Oklahoma City, Inc.
105 N. Hudson, Suite 101
Oklahoma City, OK 73103
Direct: 405-604-6780
Wynne Jackson, Inc.
Frank Murphy
([email protected])
Senior Vice President
600 North Pearl, Suite 650 – L.B. 149
Dallas, TX 75201
Main: 214-880-8600
Mobile: 214-536-1900
GiANT Capital Fund
Andrew Ranson
([email protected])
President
2575 Kelley Pointe Parkway, Suite 330
Edmond, OK 73013
Main: 405-513-5300
Mobile: 405-388-1964
Catalyst
Jason Claunch
([email protected])
President / Owner
5307 East Mockingbird Lane, 5th Floor
Dallas, TX 75206
Main: 972-999-0081, ext. 101
Mobile: 817-680-7180
City of Rowlett, Texas
Jim Grabenhorst
([email protected])
Director of Economic Development
3901 Main Street
Rowlett, TX 75088
Direct: 214-729-7936
Main: 972-463-3953
Capital Hotel Management (CHM)
Carey Stavrevski
([email protected])
Vice President, CHM Government Services
548 Cabot Street
Beverly, MA 01915
Direct: 301-355-4627
Mobile: 781-367-2800
MJS Realty, Inc.
Mark Small ([email protected])
President
14185 North Dallas Parkway, Suite 890
Dallas, TX 75254
Direct: 972-644-8010
Mobile: 214-435-0000
Town of Northlake, Texas
Drew Corn ([email protected])
May 13, 2015
Page 10
Town Administrator
1400 FM 407
Northlake, TX 76247
Direct: 940-242-5701
Main: 940-648-3290
STATEMENT OF ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting assignments by Stone Hospitality and Real Estate:
Economic and Social Trends - The consultant assumes no responsibility for economic, physical or demographic factors
which may affect or alter the opinions in this report if said economic, physical, or demographic factors were not present as
of the date of the letter of transmittal accompanying this report. The consultant is not obligated to predict future political,
economic or social trends.
Information Furnished by Others - In preparing the report, the consultant relied on information furnished by other
individuals or found in previously existing records and/or documents. Unless otherwise indicated, such information is
presumed to be reliable. However, no warranty, either express or implied, is given by the consultant for the accuracy of
such information and the consultant assumes no responsibility for information relied upon later found to have been
inaccurate. The consultant reserves the right to make such adjustments to the analyses, opinions and conclusions set forth
in this report as may be required by consideration of additional data or more reliable data that may become available.
Title - No opinion as to the title of the subject property is rendered. The property is evaluated assuming it to be under
responsible ownership and competent management.
Hidden Conditions - The consultant assumes no responsibility for hidden or unapparent conditions of the property,
subsoil, ground water or structures that render the subject more or less valuable. No responsibility is assumed for
arranging for engineering, geologic or environmental studies that may be required to discover such hidden or unapparent
conditions.
Hazardous Materials - The consultant has not been provided any information regarding the presence of any material or
substance on or in any portion of the subject property or improvements thereon, which material or substance possesses or
may possess toxic, hazardous and/or other harmful and/or dangerous characteristics. Unless otherwise stated in the
report, the consultant did not become aware of the presence of any such material or substance during the consultant’s
inspection of the subject property. However, the consultant is not qualified to investigate or test for the presence of such
materials or substances. Unless otherwise stated, this report assumes the subject property is in compliance with all federal,
state and local environmental laws, regulations and rules.
Zoning and Land Use - Unless otherwise stated, the subject property is evaluated assuming it to be in full compliance with
all applicable zoning and land use regulations and restrictions.
Licenses and Permits - Unless otherwise stated, the property is evaluated assuming that all required licenses, permits,
certificates, consents or other legislative and/or administrative authority from any local, state or national government or
private entity or organization have been or can be obtained or renewed for any use on which the analysis contained in this
report is based.
Engineering Survey - No engineering survey has been made by the consultant. Except as specifically stated, data relative
to size and area of the subject property was taken from sources considered reliable and no encroachment of the subject
property is considered to exist.
Maps, Plats and Exhibits - Maps, plats and exhibits included in this report are for illustration only to serve as an aid in
visualizing matters discussed within the report. They should not be considered as surveys or relied upon for any other
purpose, nor should they be removed from, reproduced or used apart from the report.
Legal Matters - No opinion is intended to be expressed for matters which require legal expertise or specialized
investigation or knowledge beyond that customarily employed by real estate consultants.
Right of Publication - Possession of this report, or a copy of it, does not carry with it the right of publication. Without the
written consent of Stone Hospitality and Real Estate, this report may not be used for any purpose by any person other than
the party to whom it is addressed. In any event, this report may be used only with properly written qualification and only
in its entirety for its stated purpose.
Testimony in Court - Testimony or attendance in court or at any other hearing is not required by reason of rendering this
report, unless such arrangements are made a reasonable time in advance of said hearing. Further, unless otherwise
indicated, separate arrangements shall be made concerning compensation for the consultant’s time to prepare for and
attend any such hearing.
May 13, 2015
Page 11
Income Data Provided by Third Party – Any income and expense data related to the property provided by the client is
assumed, but not warranted, to be accurate.
Asbestos - The consultant is not aware of the existence of asbestos in any improvements on the subject property. However,
the consultant is not trained to discover the presence of asbestos and assumes no responsibility should asbestos be found
in or at the subject property. For the purposes of this report, the consultant assumes the subject property is free of asbestos
and that the subject property meets all federal, state and local laws regarding asbestos abatement.
Archaeological Significance - No investigation has been made by the consultant and no information has been provided to
the consultant regarding potential archaeological significance of the subject property or any portion thereof. This report
assumes no portion of the subject property has archaeological significance.
Definitions and Assumptions - The definitions and assumptions upon which our analyses, opinions and conclusions are
based are set forth in appropriate sections of this report and are to be part of these general assumptions as if included here
in their entirety.
Dissemination of Material - Neither all nor any part of the contents of this report (including the identity of the consultant
or Stone Hospitality and Real Estate) shall be disseminated to the general public through advertising or sales media, public
relations media, news media or other public means of communication without the prior written consent and approval of
Stone Hospitality and Real Estate.
Distribution and Liability to Third Parties - The party for whom this appraisal report was prepared may distribute copies
of this report only in its entirety to such third parties as may be selected by the party for whom this report was prepared;
however, portions of this report shall not be given to third parties without the written consent of Stone Hospitality and Real
Estate Liability to third parties will not be accepted.
Use in Offering Materials - This report, including all cash flow forecasts, market surveys and related data, conclusions,
exhibits and supporting documentation may not be reproduced or references made to the report or to Jeremy Stone, PhD
in any sales offering, prospectus, public or private placement memorandum, proxy statement or other document (“Offering
Material”) in connection with a merger, liquidation or other corporate transaction unless Stone Hospitality and Real Estate
has approved in writing the text of any such reference or reproduction prior to the distribution and filing thereof.
Limits of Liability – Stone Hospitality and Real Estate cannot be held liable in any cause of action resulting in litigation for
any dollar amount which exceeds the total fees collected from this individual engagement.
May 13, 2015
Page 12

Hotel Market Study - Kyle, Texas | Economic Development

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