biznesi #19.indd

ra-kursi
10
saqarTveloSi saxelfaso
da sapensio politika
ar arsebobs!
amaswinandeli opoziciuri mitingebis zewoliTa Tu gardauvali aucileblobiT
gamowveulma samTavrobo cvlilebebma imedTan erTad, garkveuli skepticizmic dabada. prezidentis mier qveynisTvis premier-ministrad metad warmatebuli da uaRresad popularuli bankiris SeTavazeba erTmniSvnelovnad progresul gadawyvetilebad iqna aRiarebuli. Tumca, aqve gaCnda eWvi, rom mTavrobis Zireuli cvlilebisa
da mis mier gatarebuli ekonomikuri kursis seriozuli gadaxedvis gareSe qveyanaSi
arsebuli mwvave inflaciuri procesebis SeCereba SeuZlebeli iqneba.
ramdenad gadaataninebs zamTars e.w. `prezidentis vauCerebi~ mosaxleobas, bumerangiviT xom ar mogvibrundeba ukan (kidev ufro gaRrmavebuli inflaciis saxiT) siRatakis
zRvars miRma myofi 2 milion 800 aTasi mosaxlisTvis savauCerod gamoyofili 120 milioni lari, an satiralia Tu sacinari, qarTuli lari dolarTan mimarTebaSi ase rom
myardeba, am da sxva sakiTxebze gvesaubreba ekonomikis yofili ministri, saqarTvelos
parlamentis wevri batoni lado papava.
_ daviwyoT imiT, rom Tavad siRatakis zRvris
Temaa sakmaod rTuli. rodesac 2002-2003 wlebSi gaiTvala siRatakis zRvari da dadginda, rom
mis miRma saqarTeloSi mTeli mosaxleobis
52%-ia, es sakmaod maRali maCvenebeli aRmoCnda.
magram, saintereso is aris, rom maleve, revoluciis Semdeg, siRatakis zRvars miRma myofi mosaxleobis procentuli maCvenebeli 35% gaxda,
2004 wels ki es cifri erTi procentiT Semcirda. SeiZleba vinmes egonos, rom qveyanaSi Tvisobrivad gaumjobesda socialuri mdgomareoba
da siRatake Semcirda. sinamdvileSi ki mTavrobam Secvala siRatakis zRvris gaTvlis meTodologia _ Seamcires moxmarebuli produqtebis
kaloriuloba, anu samomxmareblo kalaTa da
saboloo jamSi gamovida, rom siRatake, Turme,
Semcirebula. Tumca, mogvianebiT, 2005-Si, miuxedavad imisa, rom axali meTodikiT gaTvales,
siRatakis zRvrulma maCvenebelma 39%-mde aiwia.
minda giTxraT, rom 2006 wlis maCvenebeli saer-
#19-20 ___ noemberi 2007
Tod ar gamouqveynebiaT da, cota ar iyos, mikvirs, roca maRali eSelonebidan mesmis, saqarTveloSi siRatakis zRvars miRma 28% cxovrobso.
saerTod, am cifrebis me ar mjera _ ubralod
vici, rom iyo 52%, xolo ra xdeba amis Semdeg,
namdvilad gaugebaria.
rac Seexeba vauCerebis darigebas –mTavrobis
gadawyvetileba gasagebia _ zamTari moaxlovda
da bunebrivia, izrdeba eleqtroenergiisa da
bunebrivi airis moxmarebis odenoba. gazis tarifma, rusuli faqtoris gamo, ukve moimata am
wlis dasawyisSi, aqedan gamomdinare, mosaxleobas Zalian gauWirdeba moxmarebuli gazis da
eleqtroenergiis safasuris gadaxda, mTavroba
ki cdilobs, rogorme Seumsubuqos mas mdgomareoba. mosaxleobas aseve gauWirdeba SeSis momaragebac, amas garda, soflad kvebis produqtebis
Sesyidvis problemac dgas da mas, visac gazi ara
aqvs, sanacvlod, kompensaciis saxiT mTavroba
fqvils daurigebs. es yvelaferi kargia, magram,
ra-kursi
11
meore mxriv, ras niSnavs igi? _ es niSnavs, rom
saqarTveloSi ar arsebobs saxelfaso da sapensio politika, aseTi ram rom arsebobdes, vauCerebis gamoyeneba ar dagvWirdeboda.
mTavari ki is aris, ras mogvcems es vauCerizacia _ marTalia, mosaxleobas odnav Seumsubuqdeba mdgomareoba, Tanac _ moklevadian periodSi
(rakiRa vauCerebiT dafaraven moxmarebuli eleqtroenergiisa da gazis safasurs, SeiZenen SeSas
da miiReben ufaso fqvils), magram es yvelaferi
xels Seuwyobs inflacias. ratom? imitom rom, vauCerizaciiT saqonlis masa Semcirdeba. rom ar
darigebuliyo vauCerebi, fulis masiT unda yofiliyo Sesyiduli eleqtroenergia, gazi, SeSa
da fqvili. amjerad saqonlis masidan es produqtebi amovarda (rakiRa pirdapiri gadaxda xdeba
biujetidan). sabolood, fulis masa mimoqcevaSi
rCeba igive, saqonlis masa ki mcirdeba. aqedan
gamomdinare, vauCerizacia xels Seuwyobs inflacias. es, ra Tqma unda, kargi ar aris. veWvob, rom
mTavrobas es srulad hqondes gaazrebuli, radganac, samwuxarod, amis Sesaxeb arc yofili premier-ministri saubrobda da jerjerobiT, arc
axali ambobs rames.
_ Tqvens JurnalSi daibeWda Cemi statia (risTvisac madlobeli var), romelSic avxseni, ratom xdeba laris kursis gamyareba. es obieqturi
asaxvaa imisa, rac qveyanaSi xdeba. lari imis gamo myardeba, rom qveyana moculia `holandiuri
daavadebiT~, anu imiT, rom qveyanaSi Zalian didi raodenobiT Semodis ucxouri valuta, rac
iwvevs mis gaufasurebas da erovnuli valutis
gamyarebas. vinc ar icis, maTTvis mokled vityvi, rom `holandiuri daavadebis~ mcneba gaCnda
wina saukunis 60-ian wlebSi. holandiaSi, CrdiloeTis zRvaSi, aRmoaCines gazis didi maragi,
ris Semdegac holandiam daiwyo misi eqsporti,
qveyanaSi Sevida didi raodenobiT dolari, ramac gamoiwvia holandiuri guldenis gamyareba
dolarTan mimarTebaSi. magram gamyarebuli
valuta xels uSlis eqsports. imis gamo, rom
holandiam SeZlo gazis eqsporti, ramac qveyanas misca didi raodenobiT ucxouri valuta,
SeizRuda sxva saqonlis eqsporti. samagierod,
gamyarebuli valuta xels uwyobs imports da
axdens mis stimulirebas. am movlenas `holandiuri daavadeba~ uwodes. mogvianebiT dadasturda, rom, Turme, mniSvneloba ara aqvs, risi meSveobiT Semoedineba qveyanaSi ucxouri valuta.
CvenTan valutis mozRvaveba bevrma faqtorma
gamoiwvia. pirvel rigSi, es aris privatizacia.
ucxoelebi Semodian, iZenen qonebas, SemoaqvT
dolari, magram mTavrobas unda gadauxadon
erovnuli valuta. amitom savaluto bazarze unda SeiZinon lari, rac bunebrivia, aCens damatebiT moTxovnas larze. Semdegi faqtori gaxlavT
pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, anu roca ucxoelebi araprivatizaciis gziT, pirdapir Semodian da raRacas yiduloben, an aSeneben; kidev
erTi faqtori sazRvargareT myofi Cveni Tanamoqalaqeebis mier qveyanaSi ganxorcielebuli
fuladi gadmoricxvebia. 2006 wels 2000 welTan
SedarebiT sabanko arxebiT fuladi gzavnilebi
gaizarda 5-jer. yvelaferi es jamSi ganapirobebs imas, rom saqarTveloSi ucxouri valutis
siWarbe Seiqmna. amaze korufciis winaaRmdeg
brZolis kampaniamac imoqmeda, rodesac yofil
Cinovnikebs danaSaulis `gamosyidvisaTvis~ garkveuli safasuri unda gadaexadaT. maT, bunebrivia, danazogi hqondaT dolarSi, xelisuflebisTvis unda gadaexadaT larSi, ai, amanac gazarda
moTxovna larze. ase, rom saqarTveloSi saqme
gvaqvs `holandiuri daavadebis~ garkveul modifikaciasTan. swored amis Sedegia, rom lari
myardeba. ufro metsac getyviT, erovnuli banki
cdilobs, rom es gamyareba umniSvnelo iyos.
erovnul banks rom ar SeeZina dolarebi bazridan, gamyareba bevrad mniSvnelovani iqneboda.
2005 wlis dasawyisSi erovnuli bankis rezervebi 200 milioni dolari iyo, axla ki miliard naxevaria. miliard samasi milioni dolari iyida
erovnulma bankma, es niSnavs, rom gayida lari.
erovnul banks rom ar SeeZina dolari, SeiZleba dRes laris gacvliTi kursi dolarTan mimarTebaSi erTi-erTze, anu, kidev ufro uaresi
yofiliyo. magram, meore mxriv, laris gayidviT
erovnulma bankma xeli Seuwyo inflacias, anu
xelovnurad daiWira kursi da rakiRa xeli Seewyo inflaciur procesebs, aqedan gamomdinare,
Zalian didi mniSvneloba mieniWa mTavrobis saqmianobas. aseT SemTxvevebSi, inflaciis mosaTo-
#19-20 ___ noemberi 2007
ra-kursi
12
kad mTavrobas evaleba deficituri biujetidan
gadavides proficitur biujetze, anu amoiRos ufro meti gadasaxadebi, vidre aqvs xarjebi. es nazardi ki Seinaxos specialurad Seqmnil fondSi,
romelsac, SesaZloa pirobiTad stabilizaciis
fondi ewodos, riTac xels SeuSlis inflaciis
Semdgom gagrZelebas. samwuxarod, Cveni mTavroba amaze ar midis, deficiti 2007 wlis biujetSi aris 374 milion 200 aTasi lari, momavali
wlis biujetSi ki _ 180 milion 600 aTasi lari.
is, rom lari gamyarda, es obieqturi procesia
da kidev kargi, rom erovnuli banki cdilobs am
procesis damuxruWebas. es rom ara, Ziri gamoeTxreboda im minimalur SesaZleblobebsac ki,
rac dRes gvaqvs saeqsporto produqciis warmoebaSi. minimalur SesaZleblobebs imitom vambob,
rom, mogexsenebaT, rusuli bazari, romelic wamyvani iyo qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylebisaTvis, jerjerobiT daketilia da, albaT, kidev didxans ar gaixsneba.
rac Seexeba Tavad erovnul banks, iq dRes
cota gaurkveveli mdgomareobaa. mogexsenebaT,
erovnuli bankis prezidentma datova Tanamdeboba, mis movaleobas asrulebs vice-prezidenti daviT amaRlobeli. me mas vicnob, rogorc Zalian niWier, karg, maRalprofesional bankirs,
makroekonomists da mimaCnia, rom is adekvaturia Tavis qmedebebSi. magram nebismier SemTxvevaSi erovnul banks sWirdeba legitimuri prezidenti da ara movaleobis Semsrulebeli. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi is yovelTvis seriozuli dartymis qveS aRmoCndeba. Tu daviT amaRlobelis
#19-20 ___ noemberi 2007
kandidaturas warmoadgenen prezidentad, am
faqts mivesalmebi. Tavis droze gamovxate Cemi
dadebiTi damokidebuleba leqso aleqsiSvilis
kandidaturis mimarTac. ar vici, vin iqneba erovnuli bankis prezidenti, amitom jerjerobiT veranair komentars ver gavakeTeb, visurveb, rom
erovnul banks male hyavdes arCeuli prezidenti, romelic pasuxismgebeli iqneba yvelaferze
– fulad-sakredito politikaze, sabanko sistemaSi arsebul viTarebaze da romelic jansaRi
partniori da aseve jansaRi oponenti iqneba saqarTvelos mTavrobisTvis.
_ rac Seexeba axal sakadro cvlilebebs,
axal premier-ministr lado gurgeniZes vicnob
1994 wlidan, im periodidan, rodesac me saqarTvelos ekonomikis ministrad daviniSne. igi maSin
axalgazrda mkvlevari iyo, muSaobda niu-iorkSi, iyo aRmosavleT-dasavleTis institutis analitikosi, Camodioda saqarTveloSi da masTan
intensiuri Sexvedrebi gvqonda. gamoqveynebuli
hqonda araerTi statia. mogvianebiT is gadaerTo biznesSi, sabanko seqtorSi da ukve maSin
hqonda konkretuli proeqtebi saqarTveloSi.
muSaobda cnobil bank `ei-bi-em amroSi~. yovelTvis vafasebdi, rogorc maRalprofesionals. SevTavaze kidec, xom ar dagveyenebina sakiTxi, raTa
igi Camosuliyo da saqarTvelos mTavrobaSi daekavebina erT-erTi posti. man uari miTxra Zalian bevri mizezis gamo. rodesac is saqarTveloSi saerTod dabrunda da Caudga `saqarTvelos
banks~, masTan aranairi kontaqti aRar mqonia.
Cems SefasebebSi garkveuli koreqtivebi Sevitane mas mere, rac axali mTavroba warmoadgina
dasamtkiceblad. minda gamarjvebuli iyos, Tumca, veWvob warmatebas miaRwios im mTavrobaSi,
romelSic gadamwyveti sityva kvlav rCeba kaxa
benduqiZes, romelic CemTvis (da ara marto CemTvis, albaT sruliad saqarTvelosTvis), absoluturad miuRebeli, rusuli biznes-interesebis
gamtarebelia. is, rom mTavrobaSi aris saqarTveloSi Zalzed arapopularuli saxeebi, ara
marto lado gurgeniZis, aramed saqarTvelos
prezidentis problemacaa, gansakuTrebiT, winasaarCevnod.
ilnar goreliSvili