fissile material stockpile declarations and cooperative

Transcription

FISSILE MATERIAL STOCKPILE
DECLARATIONS AND COOPERATIVE
NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
Alexander Glaser
Princeton University
United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research
Palais des Nations, Geneva, June 1, 2016
© www.francetnp2010.fr
Revision 2
1370
Graphic by Alex Wellerstein, nuclearsecrecy.com
505
FISSILE MATERIALS BY CATEGORY
GLOBAL STOCKPILE OF PLUTONIUM AND HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, 2015
Weapon equivalents
931 tons
Plutonium
Highly enriched uranium
269 tons
144 tons
664 tons
89 tons
303 tons
4.4 tons
62 tons
Military
Naval
Excess
61 tons
Civilian
Disposed of
Assumptions for weapon equivalents: 3 kg of weapon-grade plutonium, 5 kg of reactor-grade plutonium, 15 kg of highly enriched uranium
(As of 2015, more than 220,000 weapon-equivalents in the global stockpile of fissile material)
Source: Global Fissile Material Report 2015, International Panel on Fissile Materials, Princeton, NJ, www.ipfmlibrary.org/gfmr15.pdf
A. Glaser, Fissile Material and Stockpile Declarations and Nuclear Archaeology, UNIDIR, Palais des Nations, Geneva, June 2016
3
DECLARATIONS
OF FISSILE MATERIAL STOCKPILES
THE UNITED STATES HAS ALREADY MADE
BASELINE DECLARATIONS
(BUT COULD UPDATE THEM MORE FREQUENTLY)
T OF
EN
MEN
RT
U NI
ER
ICA
GY
ER
DEP
A
OFFICIAL USE ONLY - DRAFT
TE
D
ST
M
AT E S O F A
HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM:
STRIKING A BALANCE
A HISTORICAL REPORT ON THE UNITED STATES
HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM PRODUCTION,
ACQUISITION, AND UTILIZATION ACTIVITIES
FROM 1945 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 1996
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
NATIONAL NUCLEAR SECURITY ADMINISTRATION
OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR
FOR DEFENSE PROGRAMS
DECEMBER 2005
REVISION 1
OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Contains information which may be exempt from public
release under the Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C.
552), exemption number 2. Approval by the Department of
Energy prior to public release is required.
Reviewed by: _________________ Date: ______________
OFFICIAL USE ONLY - DRAFT
1996 and 2001 U.S. Declarations on Plutonium and HEU
5
POSSIBLE REPORTING FORM
FOR A FISSILE MATERIAL (BASELINE) DECLARATION
Specifying average isotopics (uranium-235 content in HEU and plutonium-239 in plutonium)
would enable further consistency checks of the declarations
Global Fissile Material Report 2013, International Panel on Fissile Materials, Princeton, October 2013, www.ipfmlibrary.org/gfmr13.pdf
6
NOTIONAL PRODUCTION SCENARIO
Production [kg/yr]
(AND ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF DECLARING HISTORIC FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION)
60
45
30
15
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
7
Production [kg/yr]
Production [kg/yr]
60
45
30
15
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Plant 3
Plant 2
Plant 1
60
45
30
15
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
7
Production [kg/yr]
Production [kg/yr]
60
45
30
15
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Plant 3
Plant 2
Plant 1
60
45
30
15
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
200 kg
Plant 3
325 kg
Plant 2
275 kg
Plant 1
0
85
170
255
340
7
VERIFICATION OF BASELINE DECLARATIONS
AND THE CASE FOR NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
WILL WE EVER KNOW HOW MUCH FISSILE MATERIAL EXISTS WORLDWIDE ?
RECONSTRUCTING HISTORIC FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION
Many aspects of declared production histories can be reviewed
for consistency even without dedicated verification efforts
(for example, by comparison with historic krypton emissions)
9
PUBLIC HISTORIC DOCUMENTS CAN OFTEN HELP
RECONSTRUCT PRODUCTION HISTORIES
(MUCH BETTER WOULD BE FORMAL DATA EXCHANGES OF HISTORIC PRODUCTION RECORDS)
Le retraitement des combustibles irradiés: La situation de la Hague et Marcoule, Analyses et positions de la CFDT
Rayonnement, Syndicat National du Personnel de l'Energie Atomique, No. 92, Février 1981
10
WILL WE EVER KNOW HOW MUCH FISSILE MATERIAL EXISTS WORLDWIDE ?
RECONSTRUCTING HISTORIC FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION
Many aspects of declared production histories can be reviewed
for consistency even without dedicated verification efforts
(for example, by comparison with historic krypton emissions)
DATA EXCHANGE AND NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
Verification could begin with data exchanges (e.g. sharing of available
operating records) and, eventually, envision onsite inspections
Nuclear archaeology is based on nuclear forensic analysis
of samples taken at former production facilities
Source: Ole Ross and www.francetnp2010.fr
11
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NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY WOULD HAVE BEEN USED
TO VERIFY NORTH KOREA’S PLUTONIUM DECLARATION
FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF GRAPHITE SAMPLES COULD CONFIRM TOTAL PLUTONIUM
PRODUCTION IN NORTH KOREA WITHIN AN UNCERTAINTY OF ±2 KG
The banner reads: “Let’s protect Dear General Kim Jong Il desperately!”
Credit: CNN/Brian Rokus, 2008
Unit cell of the DPRK Yongbyon reactor
13
NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY WOULD HAVE BEEN USED
TO VERIFY NORTH KOREA’S PLUTONIUM DECLARATION
FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF GRAPHITE SAMPLES COULD CONFIRM TOTAL PLUTONIUM
PRODUCTION IN NORTH KOREA WITHIN AN UNCERTAINTY OF ±2 KG
Sampling Position
The banner reads: “Let’s protect Dear General Kim Jong Il desperately!”
Credit: CNN/Brian Rokus, 2008
Unit cell of the DPRK Yongbyon reactor
13
PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION REACTORS
BY TYPE AND COUNTRY
Graphite moderated
H2O cooled
United States
Hanford
Russia
“Tomsk-7”
CO2 cooled
H2O cooled
Calder Hall
France
G-Series
Célestin
“Jiuquan”
Israel
Dimona
India
Cirus/NRX
Pakistan
Khushab
DPRK
D2O cooled
Savannah River
United Kingdom
China
Heavy-water moderated
Dhruva
Yongbyon
A. Glaser, “Isotopic Signatures of Weapon-grade Plutonium from Dedicated Natural-uranium-fueled Production Reactors
and Their Relevance for Nuclear Forensic Analysis,” Nuclear Science & Engineering, September 2009
14
PREPARING FOR FUTURE VERIFICATION
MANY DIFFERENT MATERIALS, PROCESSES, AND SITES HAVE BEEN
INVOLVED IN FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION
THE CASE OF PLUTONIUM
Source material
(Uranium)
Fuel fabrication
Plutonium production
Reprocessing of irradiated fuel
Waste storage
TO ALLOW FOR FUTURE VERIFICATION, STATES COULD:
1. Agree on the most important types of operating records to be preserved
2. Catalogue, characterize, and preserve waste materials
15
TEST BEDS FOR NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
To begin countries could offer single sites or facilities as test beds and
invite partners with similar production facilities to engage in “site-to-site exercises” to jointly demonstrate verification approaches and measurement techniques
Leﬅ: Windscale Piles, www.sellafieldsites.com
Right: G2/G3, Marcoule, www.francetnp.fr
16
TEST BEDS FOR NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
To begin countries could offer single sites or facilities as test beds and
invite partners with similar production facilities to engage in “site-to-site exercises” to jointly demonstrate verification approaches and measurement techniques
Plant 3
Test bed
200 kg
325 kg
Plant 2
275 kg
Plant 1
0
85
170
255
340
Leﬅ: Windscale Piles, www.sellafieldsites.com
Right: G2/G3, Marcoule, www.francetnp.fr
17
MANY NON-NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES HAVE
CANDIDATE FACILITIES THAT COULD BE USED TO DEMONSTRATE
METHODS REQUIRED FOR NUCLEAR ARCHAEOLOGY
NRX, Canada
Ågesta Reactor (105 MWt), near Stockholm, Sweden
18
“THE CLOCK IS TICKING”
SHUTDOWN ENRICHMENT PLANTS AND PRODUCTION REACTORS
ARE BEING DECOMMISSIONED OR DEMOLISHED
Demolition of the K-25 uranium enrichment plant began
in December 2008 and has been completed in 2012
Source: Bechtel Jacobs
China’s unfinished underground plutonium production complex (Project 816), near Chongqing
Source: CQTV
19

fissile material stockpile declarations and cooperative

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