Managing Typhoon Risk in China

Transcription

Title
CONFIDENTIAL
©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE
1
Managing Typhoon
Risk in China
Ruilong Li, Ph.D.
CONFIDENTIAL
2
Agenda
-
Overview of typhoon risk in China
Hazard module
Vulnerability module
Modeled losses
CONFIDENTIAL
3
AIR Is Dedicated to Managing Typhoon Risk in China
Launched Northwest Pacific
Basinwide Typhoon Model,
including an extensive
update for China and the
addition of South Korea
2007
Released the first
Typhoon model for
China in collaboration
with the Shanghai
Typhoon Institute
2010
Separate wind and flood
losses are available in
Touchstone
2013
2014
2015
Introduced an Index Value
for our Industry Exposure
Database to accommodate
the rapid development of
China’s economy
CONFIDENTIAL
4
Overview of Typhoon
Risk in China
CONFIDENTIAL
5
The Northwest Pacific Basin Is the Most Active
Basin for Tropical Cyclones
Every year:
• 30 form
• 20 reach
typhoon
status
• 5 reach
super
typhoon
status
CONFIDENTIAL
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The Geography of Eastern China Is Complex
•
•
Coastline ~14,500 km
Coastal mountains
–
–
–
•
Yellow River
Major rivers
–
–
–
•
Goulou Mountains
Wuyi Mountains
Xandang Mountains
Yellow River ~6,000 km
Yangtze River ~ 5,500 km
Pearl River ~4,000 km
Beijing
Shanghai
Wenzhou
Yangtze River
Fuzhou
Coastal cities
–
–
–
–
Shanghai
Wenzhou
Fuzhou
Guangzhou
Guangzhou
Pearl River
CONFIDENTIAL
7
Significant Losses from Typhoons Are Not Limited to
Coastal Provinces
Affected Provinces
2004-2006
Event
Year
Affected Provinces
Rananim
2004
Zhejiang, Fujian,
Shanghai, Jiangsu,
Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi,
Henan, Hunan
22-30
Matsa
2005
Zhejiang, Shanghai,
Jiangsu, Shandong,
Liaoning, Hebei, Tianjin
16-24
Khanun
2005
Zhejiang, Shanghai,
Jiangsu
13-17
Longwang
2005
Fujian
Bilis
2006
Fujian,Hunan,Guangdong,Jiangxi,Guangxi,
Zhejiang
22-30
Saomai
2006
Zhejiang, Fujian,
Jiangxi
10-15
Damrey
2012
Jiangsu, Zhejiang,
Shandong, Hebei,
Liaoning
Usagi
2013
Zhejiang, Fujian,
Guangdong, Guangxi
20-30
Fitow
2013
Zhejiang, Jiangsu,
Fujian, Anhui, Jiangxi
60-65
Liaoning
Hebei
Hebei
Shandong
Shandong
Henan
Damrey
Jiangsu
Jiangsu
Anhui
Shanghai
Hubei
Chongqing
Zhejiang
Hunan
Jiangxi
Guizhou
Fujian
Guangxi
Rananim
Saomai
Bilis Fitow
Guandong
Econ Loss
(CNY
Billions)
7-11
3-8
Usagi
Hainan
CONFIDENTIAL
8
Hazard Module
CONFIDENTIAL
9
To Better Understand Typhoon Complexity, AIR
Collaborated with the Shanghai Typhoon Institute
- Understanding unique factors are key to modeling
typhoons in China
•
•
•
•
Inland extent of precipitation footprint
Interaction of typhoons with inland weather systems
Effect of coastal mountains on typhoon precipitation
Effect of South China Sea monsoons
CONFIDENTIAL
10
Historical Storms Provide Genesis Points for
Stochastic Storms
• Genesis point chosen from
historical data
• Track built using statistical
and probabilistic information
based on historical
information
• Wind characteristics added,
such as central pressure
and radius of maximum
winds
• Precipitation characteristics
added, such as maximum
rate and rainfall radius
CONFIDENTIAL
11
Validation of Spatial Distribution for Typhoon Tracks
Is Important
low
high
CONFIDENTIAL
12
The AIR Stochastic Catalog Reflects Observed
Storm Frequencies for China
Weak (Cat 0-2)
0.5
Modeled
0.4
observed
0.3
Shanghai
0.2
0.1
Zhejiang
0
Hainan
Fujian
Zhejiang
Shanghai
Strong (Cat 3-5)
0.05
Fujian
Guangdong
Modeled
observed
0.04
0.03
Guangdong
Hainan
0.02
0.01
0
Hainan
Guangdong
CONFIDENTIAL
Fujian
Zhejiang
Shanghai
13
China’s Coastal Mountains Cause Typhoon Winds
to Diminish Quickly
U.S. Gulf Coast
China Coast
Winds(mph) at 0, 6, 12 h
Winds(mph) at 0, 6, 12 h
CONFIDENTIAL
14
A Third Generation Unified Precipitation Model Is
Incorporated for China
Second-generation typhoon
precipitation model
introduced in 2007
–
–
2000
First-generation typhoon
precipitation model
introduced in NWP Model in
2000
–
–
Circular precipitation shield
No accounting for coastal / terrain
/ weather / climate effects
Accounted for different
morphological types
(circular  comma)
Accounted for terrain / coastal /
weather / climate effect
2007
2010
Third-generation typhoon precipitation
model introduced in 2010
–
–
–
–
CONFIDENTIAL
Improved transition between
morphological types
Improved extratropical transition
Improved coastal / terrain
enhancements
Improvements based on the availability
of additional data
15
Typhoon Bilis (2006) Had Lower Wind Speeds, and
Still Generated Significant Precipitation and Losses
• Bilis made landfall with winds
of only 70 mph, but
generated in excess of
600 mm of total precipitation
• After landfall, Bilis turned
southwest and affected 6
provinces over a period of 5
days
• Bilis’ wind speeds were half
those of Saomai, but the
storm generated twice the
amount of economic loss
CONFIDENTIAL
16
Validation of Typhoon Precipitation Risk Distribution
Return Period Precip - Shanghai
50 Year Return Period Precipitation (mm)
800
model
Model
historical
Historical
Precip Amount
600
400
Shanghai
200
0
50%
4%
2%
1%
0.40%
Exceedance Probabilities
Return Period Precip - Guangzhou
800
Precip Amount
600
model
Model
historical
Historical
400
Guangzhou
200
0
50%
4%
2%
1%
0.40%
Exceedance Probabilities
CONFIDENTIAL
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Vulnerability Module
CONFIDENTIAL
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Salient Features of AIR’s Vulnerability Functions
-
Separate vulnerability functions are developed for wind and flood
Vulnerability assessment is based upon building attributes:
– Occupancy: single-family, apartment, commercial, industrial, and
CAR / EAR
– Construction: masonry, steel, and reinforced concrete, etc…
– Height: low (1 to 3 stories), medium (4 to 7), and high (8+)
-
-
Separate vulnerability functions are developed for building,
contents, and time element coverages
Vulnerability functions account for duration of wind and rainfall
Other factors include building type, construction practice,
construction material, and workmanship in the region
CONFIDENTIAL
19
Variation in Vulnerability by Line of Business Can Differ Greatly
Apartment
Single-Family
Non-Engineered Structure
•
•
Poor workmanship in
construction of roof and wall
Weak foundation
Commercial
Engineered Structure
Marginally Engineered Structure
•
•
Reasonably good
construction of roof and wall
Good foundation
CONFIDENTIAL
•
•
Well-designed roof and wall
building elements
Solid elevated foundation
20
Variation in Vulnerability by Construction Can Vary
Based on Location
•
•
Masonry
Steel
Reinforced Concrete
1.0
0.6
0.5
Weak connections between
building elements
Pervious
•
•
Strong frame structure
Surface corrosion, rustinduced expansion
CONFIDENTIAL
•
•
Strong frame structure
Cracking and rebar
expansion
21
Variation in Vulnerability by Height Is an Important Factor
High-rise (8+ stories)
Mid-rise (4 to 7 stories)
Low-rise (1 to 3 stories)
•
•
Marginally engineered structure
Highest damage ratio
•
•
Engineered structure
Medium damage ratio
CONFIDENTIAL
•
•
Engineered structure
Lowest damage ratio
22
The AIR China Typhoon Model Supports the CAR / EAR
Line of Business
R(t)
t
Timeline
V(t)
Vulnerability
Replacement Value
• Time-dependent replacement cost
• Time-dependent vulnerability
t
Timeline
CONFIDENTIAL
23
AIR Conducted a Damage Survey for Typhoon Saomai
CONFIDENTIAL
24
Modeled Loss Curves
CONFIDENTIAL
25
Benchmarking of Historical Typhoon Losses on the
Industry Loss Exceedance Distribution for China
Insured Loss
CHINA
Wanda ’56
Rananim ’04
Winnie ’97
AAL
10%
4%
2%
1%
0.4%
0.2%
Exceedance Probability
CONFIDENTIAL
26
AIR China Typhoon Model Can Output Wind-Only
and Flood-Only Loss in Touchstone
TOT
WND
FLD
CHINA
TOT
WND
FLD
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
25
2
5
10
Shanghai
25
50 100 250 500 1000
50 100 250 500 1000
TOT
WND
FLD
TOT
WND
FLD
Hubei
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
Zhejiang
25
TOT
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
50 100 250 500 1000
TOT
WND
FLD
Yunnan
WND
Fujian
FLD
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
CONFIDENTIAL
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
27
AIR China Typhoon Model Can Output Wind-Only
and Flood-Only Loss In Touchstone
TOT
WND
FLD
CHINA
TOT
WND
FLD
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
25
2
5
10
Shanghai
25
50 100 250 500 1000
50 100 250 500 1000
TOT
WND
FLD
TOT
WND
FLD
Hubei
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
Zhejiang
25
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
50 100 250 500 1000
TOT
WND
FLD
TOT
WND
Fujian
FLD
AAL
AAL
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
CONFIDENTIAL
2
5
10
25
50 100 250 500 1000
28
Next Steps for the AIR China Typhoon Model
-
Update industry exposure database
Improve flood model
Add storm surge
Support different unknown damage functions by province
CONFIDENTIAL
29
Title
CONFIDENTIAL
30

Managing Typhoon Risk in China

Transcription

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