Die Mär von der Renaissance der Atomenergie

Transcription

Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik
PD Dr. Lutz Mez
Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik
Freie Universität Berlin
[email protected]
www.fu-berlin.de/ffu
Nuclear Power As Solution to Sustainability?
Sustainability for the 21st Century: Rethinking Paradigm Shifts in Governance, Culture and Business
Dubrovnik, September 28 - October 1, 2010
Outline
- Nuclear power - a marginal energy source
- A nuclear renaissance?
- Problems of the nuclear industry
- Economics of nuclear power
- Lack of near-term prospects
- Combat climate change with nuclear power?
- Conclusions
Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
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Global Total Primary Energy Supply
Quelle: IEA 2008
3
Global Gross Electricity Generation
Quelle: IEA 2008
4
Global Total Final Energy Consumption
Quelle: IEA 2008
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6
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Role of Nuclear Electricity in Total Final Energy
Consumption of the six largest producers (2006)
F
KOR
JAP
D
USA
RUS
TPES in Mtoe
272.7
216.5
527.6
348.6
2,320.7
676.2
Electricity gener.
574.5
404.0
1,100.4
636.8
4,300.1
993.9
Nuclear el. gen.
450.2
148.7
303.4
167.3
816.2
156.4
78.4
36.8
27.6
26.3
19.0
15.7
174.0
145.1
351.8
253.6
1,527.2
431.7
Nuclear FE
26.6
11.8
23.3
11.9
60.8
9.2
Share of Nuclear
electricity TFEC
15.3
8.1
6.6
4.7
4.0
2.1
in TWh
in TWh
Share in %
TFEC
in Mtoe
in Mtoe
in %
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Global role of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC (2006)
1.
Share of Nuclear of Electricity generation: 14.8%
2.
Share of Electricity of Total Final Energy Consumption: 16.7%
3.
Share of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC: 2.47%
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Global expansion of installed capacity
- 150,000 MW new generation capacity was taken worldwide into operation in 2007 -
thereof NPPs: 1,857 MW (1.2%)
- In 2008 for the first time since 1956 NO new NPP was taken into operation.
- In 2009 two NPPs – Tomari-3 in Japan and Rajasthan 5 - were connected to the grid –
and three NPPs shut down.
- In 2010 five NPPs were connected to the grid – and until September one NPP shut
down.
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Problems of the nuclear industry
- Unsolved nuclear waste storage problem
- Industrial capacities
- Lack of skilled workforce
- Costs & Financing
- Proliferation
- Terror risks
- Flu epidemics
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Arguments?
Earlier: NPPs are very cheap (Too Cheap to Meter)
Today: NPPs are cheaper as all alternatives
How did the costs for NPPs develop in reality?
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Development of NPP construction costs
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NPP construction costs - estimates
Up to 2002: nuclear industry predicted construction costs of $1000/kW
for new type Generation III(+)
2004: Olkiluoto contract price $3000/kW (2000 €/kW) - real $40004500/kW or more
2007-08: US estimates about $5000/kW
2009: Ontario tenders $6700/kW and $10000/kW
Cost estimates before construction always an under-estimate
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Factors for construction costs increase
• All generation technologies hit by China effect but nuclear much more
so than others. What other factors?
• More realistic estimates as companies have to deliver on their
promises
• Learning from Olkiluoto
• Depreciation of the dollar
• Will manufacturing bottlenecks and skill shortages make things even
worse?
• Which if any of these factors is reversible?
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« US may have seen last new nuclear. coal plant »
Asked about challenges facing construction of new nuclear and coal
power plants. Wellinghoff allowed that "we may not need any. ever." That's
a "theoretical question" because « I don't see anybody building these
things until costs get to a reasonable level. »
He characterized the projected costs of new nuclear plants as prohibitive.
citing estimates of roughly $7.000/kW.
Jon Wellinghoff. Chairman of FERC
(Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)
April 2009
Source: Platts. 22 April 2009
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Total GHG emissions of generation technologies
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CO2 emissions from nuclear over time
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Nuclear irrelevant to Climate Change Mitigation
“Nuclear power is unlikely to play a critical role in limiting CO2
equivalent concentrations in the atmosphere until
mid-century at the earliest…
No realistic plan foresees a reactor build rate that allows nuclear
power to help stay below 550 ppme* CO2 within the next
~30-40 years.”
Robert Rosner
Director, Argonne National Laboratory
April 2009
* The term ppme CO2 refers to parts per million equivalent CO2
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
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Conclusions
• Nuclear power plays a very modest role in present global energy supply – and
will not be larger in the future
• The international relevance of nuclear power is rather decreasing – no sign for
a nuclear renaissance at all
• Evidence from Finland, USA & France does not show that new nuclear can be
built without special arrangements to protect them from the market
• The alarming rise in construction cost estimates, emerging skills shortages and
production bottlenecks are problems that will not be quick or cheap to
overcome
• Costs for decommissioning and recovery and cleaning up of NPPs are often
higher than the construction costs
• The financial crisis amplifies all these problems for the nuclear industry
• The nuclear industry must convince S&P or Moodys, not the public
• NPPs cannot combat climate change – and their GHG emissions are rising
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That’s all folks!
PD Dr. Lutz Mez
FFU. Ihnestr. 22. D-14195 Berlin
Email: [email protected]
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Die Mär von der Renaissance der Atomenergie

Transcription

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