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ENERGY DISRUPTION
Ramez Naam
@ramez
14 YEARS IN TECH
Ramez Naam
@ramez
RamezNaam@ramez
RAMEZ NAAM
RamezNaam@ramez
RAMEZ NAAM
RamezNaam@ramez
RAMEZ NAAM
h+p://angel.co/ramez-1/syndicate/
1. WIND
2. SUN
3. ENERGY STORAGE
4. OIL
RunningOutofOil
Colfert
5. TAKE ACTION
1. WIND
318GW
10xGrowth
11Years
31GW
50
10
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
UScentsperkwh
60
55₵/kwh
WindCostPerKwh(US)
24xPriceDecline
40
30
20
2.3₵/kwh
LARGERWINDTURBINES
DATAANDALGORITHMS
HIGHERALTITUDES
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
UScentsperkwh
WindCostPerKwh(US)
60
50
40
30
20
10
2. SUN
Moore’sLawforSolarPV
AMD
$77.00
Cost of Solar Power
200 x Price Decline
CROSSOVER:STARTINGNOW
$0.36
75%ofGrowthinEnergyConsumpTon
7.5cents/kwh
FirstSolar:LuzdelNorte,Chile:162MW,Unsubsidized
XINJIANG–TURPANPREFECTURE
1,000MWSOLARPROJECT
SambharUltra:RajasthanIndia:4GW
6cents/kwh
FirstSolar:MachoSprings:[email protected]
NextEra:4.2centsperkwhinNewMexico
FirstSolar/Berkshire:3.9c/kwh
Palo Alto: 3.6 cents per kwh
Mexico: Average 5.1 cents per kwh
LowestPrice:3.5centsperkwh(Enel)
WHOLEELECTRICITYPRICE
DUBAI:800MW
MOHAMMEDBINRASHIDALMAKTOUMSOLARPARK
2.99cents/kwh
235GW
100xGrowth
13Years
2.1GW
Solar Growth Has Been Exponential
MANUFACTURINGSCALE&INNOVATION
PRICESWILLKEEPFALLING
4. ENERGY STORAGE
240
LOWERCOSTHIGHERDENSITY
4
1
120
Price:US$perWa+Hour
2
0.5
60
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
EnergyDensity
US$/Wh
0.25
NOTQUITEGRIDDEFECTION
70%SELF-GENERATION
$250/kwhUTlity-ScaleBa+ery
BUYPOWERCHEAP,USEWHENEXPENSIVE
5xBaferyPriceDeclinein5Years
3xProjectedBaferyPriceDecline
TESLA
Ba+eriesFollowSolar-LikeCostCurve
MANYMORESTORAGETECHNOLOGIES
FLOWBATTERIES
LOWERDENSITY(BIGGER,HEAVIER,NON-MOBILE)
BUTLONGERLIFE(5-10KCYCLES)=LOWERCOST
CHEAPER ENERGY
“Renewables are now deflationary to
energy prices.” - UBS
FraunhoferISEProjecTon
SOLAR
BLOOMBERGNEWENERGYFINANCE
NEWELECTRICITYCAPACITY,GIGAWATTS
CHEAP, ABUNDANT
ELECTRICITY
4. OIL
RunningOutofOil
Colfert
ELECTRIFICATION
60%CAGR
TeslaModel3
$35,000
350kmrange
ElectricVehicleProjecTons-USA
90%FewerMovingParts
Costof200mileEV
$40,000
$35,000
AverageUSCarPrice2015-$33,500
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
LowestUSNewCarPrice2015-$14,020
$10,000
$5,000
$-
20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035
UBER-IZATION
AUTOMATION
5. TAKE ACTION
OPPORTUNITY
$77.00
Cost of Solar Power
200 x Price Decline
$0.36
POLICY INNOVATION
(NET METERING)
BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION
SOLAR FINANCING
(SolarCityforEfficiency)
POLICY
TECH
BIZ
POLICY
TECH
LEADERSHIP
BIZ
POLICY
TECH
OPPORTUNITY
BIZ
ENERGY, DISRUPTED
Ramez Naam
@ramez