Integra Memphis Viewpoint 2015 Presentation

Transcription

Integra Memphis Viewpoint 2015 Presentation
Integra Realty Resources
Viewpoint
2015
Real Estate Trends &
Investment Criteria
January 2015
1
2
About IRR
About Integra Realty Resources
With corporate headquarters in New York City, Integra Realty Resources (IRR)
is the largest independent commercial real estate market research, valuation,
and counseling firm in North America.
Founded in 1999, the firm specializes in real estate appraisals, feasibility and
market studies, expert testimony, and related property consulting services.
Many of the nation’s largest and most prestigious financial institutions,
developers, corporations, law firms, and government agencies are among its
clients. For more information, visit www.irr.com or blog.irr.com.
IRR offers a full range of valuation-related services including:
 Property Valuation
 Real Estate Counseling
 Specialty Expertise
 Portfolio Valuation
 Litigation Support and Expert Witness Services
3
Office Locations and Services
 Every office supervised by an MAIdesignated SMD with over 25 years, on
average, of local market experience
 Franchise operation with 66 Local Offices
 900+ Employees
 Over 200 MAI-designated Appraisal Institute
members – more than any other firm
4
Integra Realty Resources – Local Markets Covered
West Tennessee
State of Mississippi
Eastern Arkansas
5
Selected Clients
6
Significant Real Estate Transactions – Integra Memphis
IKEA Land
Legacy Industrial Park
35 acres appraisal of
largest retail development
in Shelby County
Phase 1 – Appraisal of
newest addition to the
expanding DeSoto County
industrial submarket
Wright Medical Building
Appraisal of a 121,059 SF office
building in East office submarket
Wolf River Medical Arts Facility
Phase 3 – Appraisal of a 35,964 SF
medical office building in Germantown
medical office submarket
Malco Crossing
Appraisal of 31,000 SF
shopping center in DeSoto
County retail submarket
7
Significant Real Estate Transactions
Westbrook Crossing
Whole Foods Market
Apartment property of 227
units in Collierville
multifamily submarket
Appraisal of a build-to-suit
for nation’s largest
specialty food grocery store
in Germantown retail
submariket
Overton Square
Appraisal of redevelopment of
leisure/entertainment district
with 91,155 SF within Midtown
retail submarket
Villages of Germantown
Tax assessment appeal of
senior housing property with
250 units
Clean Line Energy Project
Right-of-way project for electrical
transmission lines connecting
Memphis to Oklahoma
8
Shelby County Improved Property Transactions
(Sales prices greater than $2.0 million)
70
60
62
50
42
50
2012
2013
40
2014
30
20
10
0
2012 / 2013 / 2014
 Market vitality gauged by the number of transactions
 Several portfolio transactions for industrial properties
Apartment properties continue to attract investors
Overall, fewer large transactions occurred
9
Shelby County Capitalization Rate Analysis for
Investment Properties
(Sales prices greater than $2.0 million)
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
10.5%
8.4%
6.6%
7.5%
7.7% 7.3%
8.1%
8.4%
8.8%
8.7%
6.8%
7.6%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2012
Office
2013
Multifamily
Retail
2014
Industrial
 Cap rates decreased/increased in many sectors
The industrial portfolio deals in 2012 pushed capitalization rates downward
Local multifamily trends are consistent with national trends
Lack of stabilized investment grade office and larger-sized retail properties pushed local
capitalization rates upward
10
S&P/Case Shiller Price Index v. Shelby County Home Prices
 Shelby County – up 5.00% for 2014
S&P/Case Shiller Index – up 5.05% for 2014
11
National Real Estate – Brandon Nunnink
12
2014 National Real Estate Review
 Commercial Real Estate remained an en vogue asset
 CRE sector continues to attract capital in an otherwise low-yield interest
environment, driven by improved property fundamentals
 Investment returns for the NAREIT index outpaced all other major equity indices
in 2014
Real Estate Performance Versus the Market
13
National Real Estate Capital Sourcing
Real Estate Capital Source Comparisons
 CMBS issuances up in 2014, but
the industry did not increase
market share of overall CRE
financing space
 Despite the governmental
agencies’ relative loss of market
share, they still dominated in
financing multifamily in 2014
 With rising interest rates, IRR
predicts insurance companies
and commercial banks will
struggle to maintain financing
market share in face of stiff
competition from the
CMBS market
14
Capitalization Rate Changes
2013–2014 Cap Rate Changes
 Going-in cap rates compressed nationally across all product types and classes in
2014. Trend was strongest in Class A Industrial product as well as Class A CBD
Office assets
 The stagnation of cap rates for Class B assets could represent an inflection point
with respect to cap rates nationally
15
Index of Consumer Sentiment
Source: Survey of Consumers, University of Michigan
 Highest level of consumer sentiment since January 2007
 Renewed job growth
 Lower gasoline prices
 Anticipated wage gains
16
Small Business Optimism Index
Source: NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Report, December 2014
17
Memphis / Shelby County Market Overview
Office Properties – Chris Coffman
Office Property Sector Overview
 While some office markets have begun expanding, participants in others are being
more cautious despite rising occupancy rates
 The return to favor CBD office markets in most cities has been attributed to the
services industries becoming more technology-focused
 While developers and investors seem to prefer the CBD office property sector in
most cities, fundamentals for the Suburban office sector strengthened just as
much as those in the CBD sector nationally in 2014
 IRR predicts the Suburban office sector will stabilize before the CBD sector, albeit
at materially lower rental rates and marginally lower occupancy rates
 Markets more reliant on energy employment may also experience a dip in 2015 if
energy prices continue to fall
20
CBD Office Market Cycle
 The office sector continues to lag the other major property types – with the Suburban
office market continuing to lag the CBD sector
 More local markets – both CBD and Suburban – are mired in the recessionary phase
and many more are still just beginning a recovery
 High vacancy rates, moderate absorption and low rental growth rate keeps Memphis
metropolitan market in the recovery mode
21
CBD Office Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5





Raleigh, NC 93.14%
Charleston, SC 92.94%
Birmingham, AL 92.23%
Pittsburg, PA 92.03%
Columbus, OH 91.89%
Memphis, TN 86.36%
Bottom 5





Louisville, KY 76.55%
Atlanta, GA 75.29%
San Antonio, TX 75.14%
Jackson, MS 72.69%
Dayton, OH 68.03%
22
Suburban Office Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5





Greenville, SC 92.50%
San Francisco, CA 92.11%
Columbia, SC 91.74%
Portland, OR 91.72%
Pittsburg, PA 91.27%
Memphis, TN 89.21%
Bottom 5





Washington, DC 80.44%
Atlanta, GA 80.15%
New York, NY 79.70%
Chicago, IL 77.65%
Las Vegas, NV 74.20%
23
Office Trends
Class A Office Cap Trends
 CBD cap rates dropped at a faster
pace than Suburban rates
 CBD cap rates are at an all-time low,
while Suburban Class A cap rates
are approaching the 2007
all-time low
 Class A cap rates contracted at a
materially stronger pace in the South
than they did in the rest of the
country’s regions
 Central region reported the slightest
reversion of the contractionary trend
with Class B Suburban rates rising
marginally
24
Regional Rates Comparison: Office
Class A Office
Regional Rates Comparison
Class B Office
Regional Rates Comparison
25
Office Transaction Volume by Market
Top 25 Markets by Office Transaction Size
© 2014 Integra Realty Resources, Inc. U.S. Tertiary Markets are excluded. 2014 Transaction Volume is annualized as of 3Q 2014.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, compiled by IRR.
26
Office Market Analysis – Employment Factors – Memphis MSA
Source: TN Department of Employment
Security, compiled by IRR Memphis
 Stagnant office employment levels in Memphis metropolitan market area keep office
development at minimal
 Few submarkets prosper, while most submarkets are in static condition
27
Office Market Analysis – Memphis MSA
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate (FIRE) and Professional & Business Services
Job Growth - Memphis, TN, MSA Information
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
October 2014
Net Jobs Gain
Memphis
123,600
126,100
130,700
123,100
112,100
115,900
123,000
121,000
124,600
124,100
500
Average Growth per Year:
0.40%
Indicated Office SF Growth:
250 SF per Job / 125,000 SF
New Supply Delivered Since 2005:
2,604,691 SF
Excess Supply Delivered:
(2,479,691 SF)
Source: Tennessee Department of Employment Security; compiled by IRR Memphis
28
Office Market Analysis – Memphis MSA
2014 Memphis MSA Completion and Absorption
2014 Beginning Inventory (SF):
50,394,782
Vacancy Rate (SF):
12.80%
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Completions (sf)
Net Absorption (sf)
345,048
530,553
273,414
1,142,617
478,958
697,139
734,154
283,909
304,229
60,600
145,180
-82,132
109,447
13,105
6,399
153,027
184,392
168,513
276,061
23,470
2,810,572
2,505,821
Difference:
2014 Ending Inventory:
Vacancy Rate:
304,751
50,010,029
11.90%
Source: CoStar Reports, compiled by IRR Memphis
29
Office Market Analysis – Memphis MSA
Construction Completion vs. Net Absorption Memphis Office Market
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,142,617
1,000,000
Rentable Area
800,000
600,000
400,000
697,139
530,553
734,154
478,958
335,287
283,909
345,048
273,414
296,292
145,180
109,447
87,258
200,000
0
-200,000
-78,638
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Time (Years)
Completions
148,590
276,061
184,392
23,470
6,399
-6,175
2011
2012
2013
2014
Net Absorption
Source: CoStar Reports, compiled by IRR Memphis
30
Case Study – Class B Office Properties in 2014
No.
1
Property
Quince Center
6555 Quince Road
Memphis, TN
Sale
Description
Date
NRA:
Occupancy:
Major Tenants:
3/7/2014
112,679
85%
Medical Financial Services
Vector Oncology
Planned CapEx
Cap Rate (implied)
Sale Price
None
8.0%
$10,395,000
Comments: Class B office building located in the East Memphis Submarket. No planned capital expenditures.
2
Paragon Bank Building
5400 Poplar Avenue
Memphis, TN 38119
Date
NRA:
Occupancy:
Major Tenants:
8/30/2014
45,860
73%
Pargaon National Bank
Planned CapEx
Cap Rate (implied)
Sale Price
Expense Rate ($ / SF)
Bourland, Heflin, Alvarez
Typical Rents:
$362,000
8.0%
$4,400,000
$9.91
$20.00 - $22.00
Comments: Class B office building located in the East Memphis Submarket. Shortly after the sale, the buyer planned to spend $362,000 to
replace the roof, water tower and boiler. Upon closing, the buyer would occupy 4,500 square feet of space, increasing the occupancy rate
to 92%.
3
Ridgeway Center Office Bld
Date
5860 Ridgeway Center Pkwy
Memphis, TN 38120
NRA:
55,250
Cap Rate (implied)
Occupancy:
49%
Sale Price
Major Tenants: Bridge Capital Asset Funding Expense Rate ($ / SF)
7/14/2014
American General Life
Planned CapEx
Typical Rents:
None
9.0%
$4,000,000
$6.00
$16.00 - $19.00
Comments: Class B office building located in the East Memphis Submarket. Upon closing, the buyer would occupy 24,500 square feet of
space, increasing the occupancy rate to 94%.
4
Lakecrest II
6055 Primacy Parkway
Memphis, TN 38119
Date
NRA:
Occupancy:
Major Tenants:
2/28/2014
123,265
51%
AT&T
Planned CapEx
Cap Rate (implied)
Sale Price
Expense Rate ($ / SF)
Adams Keegan, Inc.
Typical Rents:
$970,000
7.68%
$4,600,000
$4.69
$16.00 - $21.00
Comments: Class B office building located in the East Memphis Submarket. Shortly after closing, in August 2014, FedEx leased 22,000
square feet in the subject property. Planned capital expenditures total $970,000 over a three year period and include HVAC replacement,
lighting, common area, elevator and exterior improvements.
5
Park Avenue Office Bld.
930 South White Station Rd.
Memphis, TN 38117
Date
NRA:
Occupancy:
Major Tenants:
10/31/2014
15,160
0%
NA
Planned CapEx
Cap Rate (implied)
Sale Price
Expense Rate ($ / SF)
Typical Rents:
$228,700
8.25%
$1,378,000
NA
NA
Comments: Single tenant, class B office building located in the East Memphis Submarket. The buyer intended to occupy the building shortly
after closing. Planned capital expenditures total $228,700 and include a general update to the finish-out of the building.
31
Multifamily Properties - Michelle Alexander
Multifamily Property Sector Overview
 The multifamily property sector continues to lead the commercial real estate
industry
 The multifamily sector may also be the first to show signs of reaching a trough
with respect to cap rate compression
 Class B continued to outpace Class A performance with respect to occupancy
in 2014
 Class A vacancy rates actually increased from 2013 to 2014, driven by new Class
A supply
 Supply changes in the Class A sector will likely “leak” into the Class B sector as
well, mostly in the form of lower rental growth expectations
33
Multifamily Market Cycle
 95% of all IRR markets reporting that they are experiencing material expansionary activity
 Risk of sliding into hypersupply is greatest within the multifamily sector in the next
1-2 year period
34
Multifamily Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5
 San Francisco, CA 97.7%
 Long Island, NY 97.62%
 Minneapolis, MN 97.55%
Three Way Tie
 Cleveland, OH 97.48%
 Orange County, CA 97.48%
 New Jersey, Coastal 97.48%
Bottom 5





San Antonio, TX 92.48%
Greenville, SC 92.36%
Jacksonville, FL 92.03%
Memphis, TN 91.95%
Columbia, SC 91.32%
35
Multifamily Trends
Class A Multifamily Cap Rate Trends
 While Class A multifamily product
experienced cap rate compression,
Class B cap rates were relatively
stagnant from 2013
 Caution is warranted in 2015, as the
investment community may be
signaling challenges ahead for
Class B multifamily space
 The South and Central regions
experienced the strongest Class A
multifamily cap rate compression
36
Regional Rates Comparison: Multifamily
Class A Multifamily
Regional Rates Comparison
Class B Multifamily
Regional Rates Comparison
37
Multifamily Transaction Volume by Market
Top 25 Markets by Multifamily Transaction Size
© 2014 Integra Realty Resources, Inc. U.S. Tertiary Markets are excluded. 2014 Transaction Volume is annualized as of 3Q 2014.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, compiled by IRR.
38
Memphis Apartment Analysis
 Inventory levels continue to increase as new construction is delivered to
the market
 Rental rate growth averaged 1.82% per year between 2010 and 2013.
The average rental rate as of 3Q 2014 is approximately 1.84% higher
than YE 2013
 Vacancy rate decreased slightly from YE 2013
 First deliveries in Collierville since 2000
 Investors are looking at older Class A product for “Value Add”
improvements
39
Case Study: Walnut Hill Apartments
360 unit, Class A garden apartment
complex located in the Cordova submarket.
Roofs were nearing the end of their life and
the budget was $400,000-$500,000 for roof
replacement.
Sale Price:
$27,900,000
Effective Sale Price:
$28,350,000
Gross Land Area:
22.84 Acres
Effective Unit Price:
$78,750 / Unit
Closing Date:
August 28, 2014
Cap Rate:
6.46% (T-12)
Occupancy:
95%
Buyer:
IRT Walnut Hill
Apartments
Owner, LLC
Seller:
USA Walnut Hill
1, LLC, et al
40
Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) Apartments
University Place
Legends Park
2013
2014
2013
2014
1BR
$775
$800
+3.23%
1BR
$765
$790
+3.27%
2BR
$875
$900
+2.56%
2BR
$865
$890
+3.63%
2BR
$975
$1,000
+2.86%
2BR
$965
$1,000
+2.89%
3BR
$1,075
$1,100
+2.33%
3BR
$1,075
$1,125
+4.65%
Occupancy
100%
93%
Occupancy
95%
95%
41
Retail Properties – Walter Allen
Retail Property Sector Overview
 The retail sector lags the multifamily and industrial sectors and barely leads the
office sector in terms of the real estate life cycle
 The retail sector is experiencing a higher degree of regional variance compared to
other property types
 Cap rate stagnation in the East and rate widening in the Central region will act as
a counterweight to improved fundamentals in these regions – leaving values
unchanged in 2015
 Values are expected to rise in the West and South regions in 2015
 New supply appears to be fairly disciplined at this time, with no markets reporting
their local retail dynamics entering hypersupply
43
Retail Market Cycle
 Improved property fundamentals helped push more markets to the expansion phase
of the product life cycle
 10% increase in the number of markets reporting a preponderance of expansionary
activity versus 2013
 Memphis remains in recovery mode with marginal improvement in vacancy rates,
absorption and rents
 New growth is predominately single tenant build-to-suit properties
44
Retail Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5





New York, NY 96.88%
San Francisco, CA 95.88%
Minneapolis, MN 95.50%
Pittsburg, PA 95.40%
Washington, DC 95.30%
Memphis, TN 89.17%
Bottom 5





Phoenix, AZ 86.19%
Columbia, SC 86.07%
Syracuse, NY 85.83%
Tulsa, OK 83.51%
Jackson, MS 82.90%
45
Retail Trends
Retail Cap Rate Trends
 Cap rates continued to contract
across the Neighborhood,
Community, and Regional Mall
sectors
 The pace of the national average
contraction fell off considerably for
Neighborhood and Community
centers
 Stagnation in the East region and
reversal of contractionary trends
in the Central region muted
national average rate of
contraction
46
Regional Rates Comparison: Retail
Retail Regional Rates Comparison
47
Retail Transaction Volume by Market
Top 25 Markets by Retail Transaction Size
© 2014 Integra Realty Resources, Inc. U.S. Tertiary Markets are excluded. 2014 Transaction Volume is annualized as of 3Q 2014.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, compiled by IRR.
48
Memphis Retail Analysis
 Total absorption in Memphis was 1,172,912 square feet, 5th consecutive
year for positive absorption
 Rental rates (before concessions) are basically flat
 Deliveries were modest – 284,820 square feet with Northeast submarket
(LA Fitness) having greatest activity
 Grocery stores are major drivers in the marketplace – replacing dollar
stores
 Dollar store growth expected to slow as economy improves; Dollar Tree
announces deal to acquire Family Dollar
 Restaurants (fast, casual and high-end) continue to expand into upper
income areas
 New deliveries for 2015 concentrated in DeSoto County (Tanger Outlet
Mall, Olive Branch Shopping Center and Malco Crossing)
 Whole Foods opens Germantown store
 Trader Joe’s selects Germantown site
 Sprouts selects two former Kroger stores for entry into the Memphis
market area
 Bass Pro expected to open mega store in Pyramid in May 2015—finally!
49
Construction Completion v. Net Absorption – Memphis Metro
Memphis Metropolitan Area Construction Completions v. Net
Absorption and Vacancy Rate
1,400,000
12.0%
Rentable Area
1,000,000
10.3%
9.9%
1,172,912 11.0%
10.8%
10.2%
9.8%
10.0%
872,442
800,000
8.7%
600,000
454,140
465,212
472,886
553,614
400,000
604,517
280,164
200,000
22,877
8.0%
284,820
7.0%
6.0%
87,689
0
-200,000
9.0%
Vacancy Rate
1,200,000
5.0%
-57,624
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4.0%
Time (Years)
Completions
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate
Source: CoStar Reports, compiled by IRR Memphis
50
Case Study: LA Fitness – Lakeland / Memphis
Sale Price:
$1,308,210
Gross Land Area: 5.01 Acres
Unit Price:
$5.97 / SF
Closing Date:
January 31, 2014
Buyer:
Lakeland 64, LLC
Seller:
Highway 64, LLC
LA Fitness moves into Memphis market by opening
two fitness centers. Both properties are located at
interstate interchanges within major retail districts.
51
Case Study: Germantown Collection
Sale Price:
$13,050,000
Rentable Area:
55,373 square feet
Unit Price:
$235.67 / SF NRA
Cap Rate:
7.52%
Closing Date:
October 3, 2014
Buyer:
Germantown Collection
Property LLC
Seller:
GA Poplar Avenue
Germantown, LLC
Occupancy:
Class A neighborhood shopping center in the
Germantown submarket. “Shadow anchored” by
Kroger grocery. Kroger was expected to vacate its
property. Subject’s anchors include Chili’s restaurant
and Panera Bread. Broker had proforma operating
statement based on 89% occupancy rate. Property
had gone through a foreclosure in 2011. Previous
sale in 2004 was $12,050,000 and a capitalization
rate of 7.09%.
81.3%
52
Case Study: Staples Store
Sale Price:
$3,309,679
Rentable Area:
18,000 square feet
Unit Price:
$183.87 / SF NRA
Cap Rate:
7.75%
Closing Date:
February 21, 2014
Buyer:
National Retail
Properties
Seller:
U.S. Real Estate, LP
Occupancy:
100%
Freestanding single tenant retail building in the
Galleria Planned Development in the Cordova
submarket. Property had 7 years remaining on
lease term at sale date, with multiple option periods.
Store closed in October 2014. Staples announced
closure of 225 stores in cost savings effort.
53
Industrial Properties – Walter Allen
Industrial Property Sector Overview
 Industrial property sector experienced the strongest improvement in property
fundamentals of any property sector
 Occupancy rates rose materially across the country for both Class A traditional
Industrial product as well as Flex Industrial product
 2014 transaction volumes were significantly higher over their five-year historical
average volumes in many IRR local markets
 Material contraction of cap rates were seen almost universally
 IRR projects limited pockets of concern for 2015 as increased supply begins to
affect occupancy rates and then valuations in only a handful of markets over the
next 12 to 36 months
55
Industrial Market Cycle
 A material increase in the number of markets reporting general expansionary market
fundamentals and activity
 60% of IRR-surveyed markets are in the expansion phase with only Greensboro, NC
in the recessionary phase
 After several years of positive growth in construction deliveries, net absorption, rent
growth, Memphis climbs into the expansion cycle
56
Industrial Class A Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5
 Charleston, SC 97.20%
 Denver, CO 97.00%
 San Diego, CA 96.80%
 Orange County, CA 96.20%
Three Way Tie
 Los Angeles, CA 96.00%
 Pittsburg, PA 96.00%
 Syracuse, NY 96.00%
Memphis, TN 89.00%
Bottom 5





Greensboro, NC 86.60%
Atlanta, GA 86.20%
Birmingham, AL 86.00%
Portland, OR 86.00%
Phoenix, AZ 78.4%
57
Industrial Flex Occupancy: The Best and Worst
Top 5





Syracuse, NY 96.00%
Orange County, CA 94.80%
Los Angeles, CA 94.25%
San Francisco, CA 94.20%
Salt Lake City, UT 93.75%
Bottom 5





Atlanta, GA 82.70%
Sacramento, CA 82.50%
Charlotte, NC 82.40%
Phoenix, AZ 82.20%
Memphis, TN 81.00%
58
Industrial Trends
Industrial Cap Rate Trends
 Cap rates decrease five years in a
row
 Recovering faster than previously
anticipated
 Cap rates for traditional Industrial
product continued to compress at a
much faster than cap rates for Flex
Industrial product
 Cap rate compression in both the
Industrial and Flex Industrial sectors
was widespread in 2014
 Compression in the national average
cap rate for the traditional Industrial
sector caused cap rates to reach new
all-time low
59
Regional Rates Comparison: Industrial
Industrial Regional Rates Comparison
60
Industrial Transaction Volume by Market
Top 25 Markets by Industrial Transaction Size
© 2014 Integra Realty Resources, Inc. U.S. Tertiary Markets are excluded. 2014 Transaction Volume is annualized as of 3Q 2014.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, compiled by IRR.
61
Construction Completion v. Net Absorption- Memphis Metro
Construction Completion v. Net Absorption - Memphis Metro
Industrial Submarket
6,000,000
14.0%
5,201,942
13.5%
5,000,000
12.9%
Rentable Area
4,000,000
13.0%
3,692,098
12.7%
12.5%
11.9%
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,651,025
12.0%
2,635,632
2,077,551
1,942,952
1,604,327
1,410,723
0
10.5%
351,537
2010
11.5%
11.0%
1,000,000
432,203
12.0%
Vacancy Rate
13.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.0%
Time (Years)
Completions
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate
Source: CoStar Reports, compiled by IRR Memphis
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Industrial Facility Acquisitions
Exeter Property Group invests in all industrial property types
63
Case Study – Memphis International Airport Center (MIAC)
Sale Price:
$24,200,000
Rentable Area:
1,140,610 square feet
Unit Price:
$21.33 / SF NRA
Cap Rate:
9.89%
Closing Date:
April 20, 2014
Buyer:
MIAC Green, LLC
Seller:
CSMC 2007 Air Center
Occupancy:
82%
Nine buildings (warehouse & flex space) that is
located in the Southeast submarket. Adjacent
to Memphis International Airport.
Capitalization rate is based upon IRR
projection at 90% stabilized occupancy rate in
Year 2. Property had gone through a
foreclosure prior to sale.
64
Agricultural Land Market – Mark Goforth
Agricultural Land Market
2014 - The year farm land values stopped skyrocketing
66
Agricultural Land Market
Is farm land on a bubble?
67
Agricultural Land Market
Commodity prices and
how they affect land
values
68
Agricultural Land Market
69
Agricultural Land Market
70
Agricultural Land Market
71
IRR Forecast
Forecast Themes
 Cap rates will remain relatively steady in 2015
 Supply and demand dynamics are now a close second to property income growth
as the most important factors to affect cap rates of institutional properties in 2015
 2015 will yield positive value appreciation across all property sectors nationally –
this will be the strongest for industrial, lodging, and multifamily sectors
 IRR’s lodging experts pinpoint key emerging trends including:
medical tourism; assisted living conversions; lifestyle hotels; sustainability
 Strong performance in the Self-Storage sector will entice developers to build new
product
 The economy appears to be poised for growth as employment grows, gasoline
prices decrease, and potential for wage increases appear
73
IRR Forecast
Forecasted Annual Value Change 2015–2016
74
IRR Website / www.irr.com
 Quarterly reports provided by our local offices on major real estate sectors
 Articles on current topics written by our managing directors
 Contact information for our 66 local offices in the United States
75
The IRR Difference
Local Expertise…Nationally
 IRR provides the broadest national coverage.
 Each office is supervised by an MAI-designated senior professional who has, on average,
over 25 years of experience in their local markets.
Unbiased Excellence
 IRR is independent and dedicated solely to valuation and counseling, not to brokerage, property
management, accounting, or any other line of business.
Signature Content
 IRR Viewpoint, our annual report of market metrics, analyses, and forecasting, is in its 25th edition
 now enhanced with 300+ customized local market reports across five key property types.
 Industry-Leading Technology
 Proprietary, state-of-the-art database and tools
 Standardized analytics and reporting to ensure quality and facilitate client review
First-Class Client Service
 IRR has earned outstanding ratings for client service. A strong majority of our clients have
recommended us to others:
– 94% of our clients tell us that they are satisfied; and nine out of ten of these clients say they are
“very” or “extremely” satisfied. 72% of our clients say that they have referred IRR to their
friends and colleagues.
– IRR has earned a stellar “Net Promoter Score” of 57.
76
For Further Information
John R. Albrecht
Brandon K. Nunnink, CFA
Raj Tiwari
Integra Realty Resources, Inc.
Eleven Times Square
640 Eighth Avenue
15th Floor, Suite A
New York, NY 10036
Integra Realty Resources –
Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City
10 South LaSalle Street, Suite 1550
Chicago, IL 60603
Integra Realty Resources, Inc.
Eleven Times Square
640 8th Avenue, 15th Floor, Suite A
New York, NY 10036
Direct: (312) 252-8915
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Direct: 212-255-7858, ext. 2005
Mobile: (240) 601-3380
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Chief Executive Officer
Direct: (212) 255-7858 x2001
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Executive Director
Director of Research and Content Development
J. Walter Allen, MAI, FRICS
Michelle Alexander, MAI, MRICS
John Praytor
Integra Realty Resources - Memphis
700 Colonial Road, Suite 102
Memphis, TN 38117
Integra Realty Resources - Memphis
700 Colonial Road, Suite 102
Memphis, TN 38117
Integra Realty Resources – Jackson, MS
200 Trace Colony Park Drive, Suite B
Ridgeland, MS 39157
Direct: (901) 322-1700
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Direct: (901) 322-1703
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Direct: (601) 714-1665
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.irr.com
Senior Managing Director
Director
Director
77