REAKT 1st Newsletter (December 2012)

Transcription

Strategies and tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction
Grant agreement n° 282862
REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real Time EArthquake RisK
ReducTion
REAKT NEWSLETTER N° 1 - DECEMBER 2012
NEWSLETTER N°1
DECEMBER 2012
Main achievements after the first Year
The activities carried out during the first year in the framework of the REAKT project have already brought significant
results both in terms of scientific research and in relationships with end users.
The main fields of activities and the principal achievements are:
Physics of short term seismic changes and its use for large earthquakes predictability
For a better understanding of physical processes underlying changes of seismic activity on a time scale from minutes to
months a first step has been realized improving the already existing monitoring network in the Marmara Sea area, with
three additional seismic stations (see Fig. 1 for the locations). Improvement of the Corinth area monitoring system is
Fig.1. Instrumentation installed in Marmara Sea Region
Fig.2. Instrumentation in Corinth
under way with the installation of Sacks Everton borehole strainmeter, 2 tilt-meters and 1 seismic antenna consisting of 8
stations (see Fig. 2 for locations).
At the same time analysis of recently recorded data at Corinth and Marmara Sea and at the Irpinia and Valais test sites
as well was carried out. It resulted in:
-
A more accurate relocation of the February 4-5, 2011, seismic swarm that allowed to track a migration of
earthquake foci possibly associated with the migration of pore pressure pulse through the fractured volume.
-
merging of KOERI and ERD Marmara Sea earthquake catalogues that allowed an improved relocation of
earthquakes occurred in 2011;
1
-
improved analysis of a swarm – like earthquake sequence occurred in 2008 in Irpinia suggested that the
mechanism of static stress transfer is likely responsible for controlling the time evolution of the sequence;
-
determination of source parameters of recent earthquakes in Valais allowed the identification of a number of fault
segments consistent with the known tectonic features of the area.
Operational Earthquakes Forecasting
A first set of hybrid physical/statistical models introducing information from physics and geology (fault parameters) are
almost completed. They will be soon tested in a retrospective CSEP-type experiment.
Another remarkable result consists of the
development of a Bayesian strategy to
evaluate and combine different probabilistic
forecasts. This method will allow us to
combine different forecasting models into a
single ensemble model. In the field of the
Implementation of Operational Earthquake
Forecasting a real time application of
earthquake forecasting models during the
aftershock sequence of the Emilia
earthquake of May 2012 and of the Pollino
(South Italy) sequence have been carried
Fig.3. Application of the ETAS forecast model to the Pollino (Southern Italy)
out. (Fig. 3)
sequence
Early Warning and rapid assessment of earthquake damage potential
An approach based on global community sharing tools to rapidly
mapping the earthquake impact is under development and
promises significant results also thanks to the established
collaboration with Stanford University and the joining of the Quake
Catcher Network (QCN) project. The activities for optimize the Setup of the First European Citizen seismological network of laptops
and/or smartphone will benefit, through the installation of QCN
server on EMSC hardware, of scientifically valid data from
specifically developed motion sensors in addition to the motion data
collected from laptop/embedded sensors.
In the field of physical grounds of Early Warning studies
implications concerning real estimation of seismic source properties Fig.4. Statistic of real time perfomance of PRESTo in the
have been achieved with a special focus on the real-time regional configuration perfomed on the low – magnitude
seismicity recorded by Isnet Network
magnitude estimate of large events. Different possibilities to reduce
uncertainties and improve resolution in real‐time risk analysis have also been carried out. Regarding the engineering
application of early warning, the real-time monitoring network in FSM suspension bridge has been established
successfully, devices for the automatic response actions (e.g., shuts down gas flow) have been designed and an
application on Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network (IGDAS) is currently under progress.
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The Threshold-Based method has been tested offline using an existing catalog of moderate-to-strong Japanese
earthquakes. The method has been implemented in the PRESTo software platform, and is currently under testing in
Southern Italy using data streaming of
small-to-moderate events from the
Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNET). .
The Threshold-Based methodology
has been also applied to the 2011,
Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, with
the purpose of a real-time estimation
of the Potential Damage Zone. The
rapidly predicted PDZ has been found
to be very consistent with the area in
which the highest level of damage is
reported.
Fig.5. Threshold – Based methodoogy applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki eartquake with
estimation of Potential Damage Zone.
The implementation of the Virtual
Seismologist (VS) algorithm into SeisComP3, expected to significantly enlarge the community of VS users, is nearly
completed.
Real time –dependent vulnerability assessment
The activities carried out to develop time-dependent fragility functions for
buildings, selected infrastructures, and utility systems have mainly
consisted in the definition of taxonomy in different time periods of the
lifetime of the selected structures (pre-seismic, co-seismic and postseismic) and in a detailed inventory with relevant performance and
damage indicators, for each time-period, and structure of interest.
These studies have conducted to the selection of earthquake groundmotion descriptors for the derivation of fragility curve and to the selection
of the degradation mechanisms affecting the physical vulnerability of
structures during their Fig.6. Methodology framework for time-dependent
vulnerability assessment due to aging effects.
lifetime, in terms of
structural damages, aging effects and/or anthropogenic actions.
For the rapid assessment of the typology and intensity of damages
and losses, in different time windows (sub-periods) during the crisis
period several techniques and methods on Structural Health
Monitoring (SHM) have been investigated with particular attention to
instrumentation configuration, modalities and methodology for realtime risk assessment of critical urban structures, infrastructures and
Fig.7. Probabilistic vulnerability in the structural facilities
design life (stochastic process in close form, no
fragility).
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The selection of a detailed methodology for optimal decision
making associated with an earthquake early warning system
(EEWS), with operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and with
real time vulnerability and loss assessment has started from a
critically review on the existing procedures of participatory decision
making. The objective to select a general participative decision
making model for the real time earthquake forecasting was not
feasible because of the variations in conditions under which the
decision need to be made. Many factors related to specific
configurations have made not possible to choose one generic
model beforehand. A review of social science studies addressing
the behavioral response to hazard warnings has been undertaken Fig.8. The general flow of influence leading to the
actual decisions of individuals at risk.
showing that public warning response is best understood and
planned for if it is viewed as a series of related sequential factors: hearing warnings, understanding what is said,
believing what is heard, personalizing what is believed as may be appropriate, deciding what to do, and then engaging in
response behaviour. It is possible to design a warning system with sender characteristics that maximize the probability
of sound public response and also minimize the negative impacts of some receiver characteristics. The most important
lesson from this review is that public education is key for helping people to make better decisions for themselves in
times of hazard crisis.
Futhermore a study on the possible consequences of an issued earthquake alarm on the Circumvesuviana’s trains has
been realized showing that the trains would have small impact on commuters and factories, so that an EEW false alarm
should not have a particularly significant costs.
Strategic Applications and Capacity Building
The work plans of the feasibility studies and implementation efforts for all test sites have been finalized and the first
implementation efforts are presently ongoing.
The scientific and end-user partners have jointly determined the type of protective measures and have defined the basic
strategy for successfully completing the feasibility studies and, in some cases, the implementation of prototype real-time
earthquake early warning (EEW), operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) methodologies and structural health
monitoring (SHM) experiments as summarized in the following TABLE:
EEW ONLY
Strategies and tool for decision making
APPLICATION
SCIENTIFIC
PARTNERS
EEW ALGORITHM
OBJECTIVE
IGDAS Network, Istanbul, Turkey
KOERI/GFZ
IRREEWS
IMPLEMENTATION
Caribbean EEW
EUCENTRE/UWI/CCEO
VS/PRESTo
FEASIBILITY
Thessaloniki Port
Greece
AUTH/GFZ
TBD (PRESTo plus?)
IMPLEMENTATION
Circumvesuviana Railway, Italy.
AMRA
PBEEW
FEASIBILITY
Italian National SM Network RAN
AMRA
PRESTo
FEASIBILITY
Sines Industrial Complex, Portugal
IST
VS?
FEASIBILITY
4
EEW + SHM
FSM Bridge, Istanbul, Turkey
KOERI/GFZ
IRREEWS
IMPLEMENTATION
AUTH/GFZ
TBD (PRESTo plus ? )
IMPLEMENTATION
AMRA/GFZ
PRESTo plus
IMPLEMENTATION
OEF+EEW
Swiss NPP
ETHZ
VS
IMPLEMENTATION
PP in Iceland
IMO
VS
IMPLEMENTATION
Rion-Antirion Bridge, Patras, Greece
UPAT
VS, PRESTo
IMPLEMENTATION
AHEPA Hospital,Thessaloniki,
Greece
Schools in Campania,
Italy
The EEW algorithms to be developed in REAKT and applied at various test sites include: PRESToPlus (AMRA), Virtual
Seismologist (ETHZ), Istanbul Rapid Response and Earthquake Early Warning System or IRREEWS (KOERI), and
Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning or PBEEW (AMRA).
VS will be tested in real-time in Switzerland (nuclear plants) and in Patras (Rion-Antirion bridge). There is potential for
applying VS in feasibility studies for the Sines industrial complex in Portugal and for protecting power plants and power
transmission stations in Iceland.
The IERREWS system developed by KOERI will be used for the Istanbul Gas Distribution network, and the Fatih Sultan
Mehmet bridge. The concept of Performance
Based Earthquake Early Warning (PBEEW,
Iervolino 2011), will be used in a feasibility study
of EEW on the Baiano line of the
Circumvesuviana Railway system in Naples. OEF
models will be set-up and evaluated in
Switzerland, Iceland and Patras. PRESToPlus
algorithm will be used for improving earthquake
preparedness and response at schools in
Campania. PRESToPlus has been also chosen
as the EEW algorithm for the feasibility study of a
national EEW system in Italy based on the
National Accelerometric Network (RAN network)
run by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. Fig.9. Test Sites.
There is potential for applying PRESToPlus as well for Thessaloniki Port, AHEPA Hospital, and in the feasibility studies
for regional EEW in the Eastern Caribbean .
The strategic applications are the real core of REAKT as they provide the opportunity to implement and test scientific
products and results achieved in the project, as well as to develop a better understanding of what the end-users expect
by applying EEW, SHM and OEF to reduce earthquake related risk at the selected test sites. Significant work has been
already done to stimulate the interaction between the end-users and the scientific partners in the project. Three end-user
meetings were organized to this aim: a) in Naples, jointly with the kick-off meeting; b) in Lisbon during the 15th WCEE
and c) in Potsdam, in occasion of the first annual meeting. The feedback from the industrial partners is carefully taken
into consideration to better focus the project activities towards the end-users expectations. Strategies to network the
end-users experiences are also taken into account, eg. by means of promoting meetings and active collaboration among
homogeneous applications (power plants and industrial complexes, lifelines and transportation systems, critical
structures as schools and hospitals, general feasibility studies).
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Dissemination
The dissemination of research results in order to
develop a knowledge base has achieved important
result also thank to the interaction with the social
network.
Since the beginning of the project the website (
www.reaktproject.eu) has been created with a public
domain regularly updating with information about
Meetings, Publications and other ongoing activities
and a reserved area to be used for the exchange of
Fig. 10. Reakt website main page.
confidential material among partners. In addition the
twitter page for the automatic publication of felt earthquake has been created (EMSC, @LastQuake http://twitter.com/lastquake) . The automatic publication on Twitter is the result of an approach called “flash sourcing”
that is able to provide information on the effects of an earthquake within minutes of its occurrence. In addition Brochures
and templates to present REAKT or WP results in official meetings or to other partners and end users have been
developed and Guidelines for REAKT reference reports have been prepared.
REAKT project has also been involved in ECOWEB project (http://www.ecoweb.info/) that is an initiative by the
European Commission to increase the uptake of research results from FP, CIP and Life+ projects and in ENV-NCPTogether project (http://www.env-ncp-together.eu/about.html) that is a project to reinforce the cooperation between the
people and institutions appointed as national contact
points (NCP) for the theme Environment in 7th
Framework Programme (FP 7).The scientific
production of the first year includes about 20 works
based on REAKT among papers on scientific journal
and participations in international meetings (see
below). It should be pointed out, among the others,
the participation to the 15 WCEE in Lisbon and to
the next AGU Fall Meeting (San FranciscoFig.11. EMSC Twitter page
December 2012)
Papers on Scientific Journal
Bossu Rémy, Gilles Sébastien, Mazet-Roux Gilles, Roussel Fréderic, Frobert Laurent, Kamb Linus, Flash sourcing, or rapid
detection and characterization of earthquake effects through website traffic analysis. Annals of Geophysics, 54, 6, 2011;
doi:10.4401/ag-5265
Bossu Rémy, S. Earle Paul, On the use of the Internet to collect earthquake information, Annals of Geophysics, 54, 6, 2011;
doi:10.4401/ag-5549
Colombelli, S., Amoroso, A., Zollo, A. and Kanamori, H., (2012). Test of a Threshold-Based Earthquake Early-Warning Method Using
Japanese Data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 102 doi: 10.1785/0120110149
Esposito S., Iervolino I. (2012) Spatial correlation of spectral acceleration in European data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, (in press)
Lippiello E., Marzocchi W., de Arcangelis L., Godano C., Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes,
Scientific Reports | 2 : 846 | doi: 10.1038/srep00846
Makropoulos K.,. Kaviris G, and Kouskouna V., An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas
since 1900, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1425–1430, 2012
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Marzocchi, W., J. D. Zechar, & T. H. Jordan, 2012. Bayesian forecast evaluation and ensemble earthquake forecasting. To appear in
Bulletin of Seismological Society of America
Marzocchi W., M. Murru, A.M. Lombardi, G. Falcone, R. Console (2012). Daily earthquake forecast during the May-June 2012
earthquake sequence (Northern Italy). Ann. Geophys., in press
Marmureanu, A., et al., PRESTo capabilities on Romania, in preparation
Wang, R., B. Schurr, C. Milkereit, Zh. Shao and M. Jin (2011). An improved automatic scheme for empirical baseline correction of
digital strong-motion records, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 101(5), 2029–2044, doi: 10.1785/0120110039
Wang, R., S. Parolai, M. Ge, M. Ji, T.R. Walter and J. Zschau (2012), The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: Comparison of
GPS and Strong-Motion Data (accepted by BSSA)
Zollo A., S. Colombelli, L. Elia, A. Emolo, G. Festa, G. Iannaccone, C. Martino and P. Gasparini (2012). An integrated regional and
on-site Earthquake Early-Warning System for Southern Italy: concepts, methodologies and performances. In F.Wenzel and J.
Zschau (Eds.), Early warning for geological disasters, Springer. In press
Proceedings in international Meetings
Behr Yannik, Cua Georgia B, Clinton John F, Heaton Thomas H, Evaluation of Real-Time Performance of the Virtual Seismologist
Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Switzerland and California, submitted to AGU Fall Meeting - San Francisco December 2012
Bossu, Lefebvre, Roussel, Mazet-Roux, Real time characterization of effects and source parameters of the Mineral, Virginia
earthquake from website traffic analysis, submitted to AGU Fall Meeting - San Francisco December 2012
Bossu R., Real time characterization of effects and source parameters of the Virginia earthquake from website traffic analysis,
ESC2012, Moscow Aug. 2012
Chioccarelli, E., Esposito, S., Iervolino, I. (2012) Implementing Conditional Hazard for Earthquake Engineering Practice: the Italian
Example. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 24-28 September.
Fotopoulou S.D.,. Karapetrou S.T & Pitilakis K.D., Seismic vulnerability of RC buildings considering SSI and aging effects, Proc of.
15WCEE, Lisboa, PT. Paper No. 5789
Gasparini, P., G. Cua, and the REAKT WP7 Team, Procedures for real-time earthquake risk reduction of industrial plants and
infrastructures. Proc of. 15WCEE, Lisboa, PT. Paper No. 5789
Iervolino I. & Chioccarelli E., M.Giorgio Time-Dependent Seismic Reliability of Damage-Cumulating Non-Evolutionary Bilinear
Systems, Proc of. 15WCEE, Lisboa, PT. Paper No. 2893
Ionescu C., Marmureanu A., An earthquake early warning system for border area Romania – Bulgaria, ESC2012, Moscow Aug.
2012
Lippiello E., Marzocchi W., de Arcangelis L., Godano C., Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes,
submitted to AGU Fall Meeting - San Francisco December 2012
Marmureanu Alexandru, Carmen Cioflan, Ionescu Constantin, Luca Elia, Zollo Aldo, Colombelli Simona, Martino Claudio , Towards
an Integrated Regional Early Warning System For Romania - Vrancea Earthquakes: Test and Performances,. Abstract AGU2012
Touati Sarah, Naylor Mark, Main Ian, Detection of temporal changes in earthquake rates, submitted to AGU Fall Meeting - San
Francisco December 2012
Zollo A., Colombelli S., Elia L., Emolo A., Festa G, Martino C., Marcucci S., PRESTo Earthquake Early Warning System: Feasibility
Study For A Nation-Wide Deployment Using An Integrated Regional and On-site Approach, Abstract AGU 2012
Participation to meeting, conference, workshop
- American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 9 December 2011;
- European Seismological Commission 33-rd General Assembly , Moscow , August 19-24 2012;
- 15th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon , September 2012;
- UNESCO sub-RELEMR International Workshop on “Earthquake & Tsunami Early Warning in the Eastern
Mediterranean for the Countries Bordering the Dead Sea Fault”, Cyprus, November 4-7 2012;
- American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 14 December 2012.
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Forthcoming events
- WP2/Marsite meeting in Istanbul in January 2013.
- WP2 meeting in March/April 2013 – “First results on tests on cluster characterization”
- WP2/WP3 meeting in Spring 2013 – “Matching WP2 output to WP3 input requests”…
- NERA/REAKT Workshop Zürich March 19.-20., 2013
- EGU General Assembly 2013 – Vienna 07-12 April 2013
- 2nd REAKT annual meeting in Zurich – September 2013
PAOLO GASPARINI – Coordinator of the REAKT Project ([email protected])
ALFONSO ROSSI FILANGIERI – Project Manager of the REAKT Project ([email protected])
www.reaktproject.eu
AMRA Scarl – Analisi e Monitoraggio del Rischio Ambientale
Via Nuova Agnano, 11 – 80125 Napoli (IT)
Ph. +39 081 7685124/25/15 fax +39 0817685147
www.amracenter.com – [email protected]
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REAKT 1st Newsletter (December 2012)

Transcription

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