New Great Earthquakes in Peru ?….?

New Great Earthquakes
in Peru….?
Peru ?
Hernando Tavera
NAZCA
PLATE
AMERICA
PLATE
America
Plate
Nazca
Plate
Cordillera Andes
Great Earthquakes
1900 - 2010
> 8.0 Mw
7.0<Mw<8.0
Peruvian Seismic Map
1964 – 2008
(M 4.0)
(M>4.0)
S i i T
Seismic
Tectonic
i
Great
Earthquakes
Moderate
Earthquakes
Nazca Plate
SOUTHERN
CE
ENTRAL
NORTHE
ERN
Historical Great Earthquakes in Peru
Great Earthquakes Southern Peru
(Giovanni and Beck, 2002)
1604
8 4Mw
8.4Mw
1784
8 0Mw
8.0Mw
1868
9.0Mw
2001
8.0Mw
Great Earthquakes in ChileChile-Peru
?
Century
XIX
1746
1868
1877
?
1906
1835
2010
?
Great Earthquakes in ChileChile-Peru
?
Century
XIX
Century
XX
1746
1868
1877
?
1906
1835
?
2010
Great Earthquakes in ChileChile-Peru
?
Century
XIX
Century
XX
Century
XXI
1746
1868
1877
?
1906
1835
2010
?
Great Earthquakes in ChileChile-Peru
?
Century
XIX
Century
XX
Century
XXI
?
1746
1868
1877
?
?
1906
1835
?
2010
The distribution
Seismicity analysis Î
“b” Value Distribution in Occidental Border of Peru
Prof. Wyss Methodology
Asperity 4
Piura y Lambayeque
(4.2º a 7.2ºS).
A
Asperity
it 3
Lima y Ancash
(9.5° a 13.3º S).
Asperity 2
Norte de Arequipa
(15.3º S a 16º S).
Asperity 1
Arequipa, Moquegua y Tacna
(16.5º a 19º S).
13
Condori et al 2011
“b” Value Distribution in Occidental Border of Peru
Asperity 4
8.0-8.5 Mw
Piura y Lambayeque
(4.2º a 7.2ºS).
A
Asperity
it 3
8.5-9.0 Mw
Lima y Ancash
(9.5° a 13.3º S).
Asperity 2
7.0 Mw
Norte de Arequipa
(15.3º S a 16º S).
Asperity 1
8.5.9.0 Mw
Arequipa, Moquegua y Tacna
(16.5º a 19º S).
14
GPS inter-seismic Deformation in Central and Southern
Peru
Seismic Coupling in Peru
Fuerte
high
g
Lima 1974 (M≈8)
Pisco 2007 (Mw8.0)
The historical great earthquakes is in high coupling zone C
Coupling
Arequipa 2001 (Mw8.2)
Aco
oplamien
nto
Nazca 1996 (Mw7.7)
Slow
Debil
New high coupling zones in Peru
Fuerte
LIMA
high
Mw=8‐8.5 ???
ng
Couplin
Acoplamiento
Southern Peru
Northern Chile
Slow
Mw=8‐9 ???
Debil
Perfettini et al (2010)
Mw ~ 9
Historical Earthquakes
Lima: Mw~8-8.5
Mw~7-7.5
Ilo-Tacna: Mw~8.5
Mw~8
8
Mw~9
9
Future Earthquakes
Adobe Building in Pisco City
PISCO 2007
Adobe Building in Lima City…?
Lima City – Miraflores and “costanera” zone
New building, Miraflores, Lima City
Sismología – Instituto Geofisico del Perú
Seismic Intensity – Lima Earthquake ,October 1974
In others districts….
Several houses
with walls
without columns
The second
l l
level
This on first
The Cruise TITANIC….?
News Risk in Lima City…..
Commerce
panels
Electrical
cables
bl
Sismología – Instituto Geofisico del Perú
The invasion of commercial panels
Sismología – Instituto Geofisico del Perú
The Cathedral of AREQUIPA city in
1865
3 years
before…
The Cathedral of AREQUIPA
AFTER GREAT EARTHQUAKE
1868
9.0 Mw
1868
9.0 Mw
The NEW Cathedral of AREQUIPA
1945
The CATHEDRAL of AREQUIPA destroyed by an new EARTHQUAKE
2001
8.0 Mw
After an year ……
2002
¿The NEW Cathedral waits the NEXT Earthquake….!!
G R A C I A S…!!!!