Folie 1 - 4. Kongres Morski w Szczecinie

Folie 1 - 4. Kongres Morski w Szczecinie

Vortragstitel
Present hydrological situation in the Baltic Sea
- the Major Baltic Inflow of December 2014
(after ELKEN & MATTHÄUS 2008)
Michael Naumann, Günther Nausch, Volker Mohrholz
Assessments of the Baltic Monitoring group at the IOW
Szczecin, 10.06.2015
3rd International Maritime Congress
Veranstaltung
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Classification of this saline inflow
Veranstaltung
Intensity index of MBIs for the period 1880-2014 (extended after Matthäus et al. 2008)
Rank MBI
1
2
3
3
4
5
25
November/December 1951
December 1921/January 1922
November/December 1913
December 2014
January 1993
November/December 1897
January 2003
Salt [Gt]
VTotal [km3]
5.17
5.12
3.80
3.98
3.40
3.35
2.03
225
258
174
198
159
177
97
Comparison of the five strongest MBIs since 1897 (Fischer & Matthäus 1996)
with the actual MBI in December 2014 and previous one in 2003
 Suboxic to anoxic conditions are dominating the deep-water of the central basins since the 80ies
1
 Ventilations and renewals of this water layer became rare in the last decades
Areas of oxygen deficiency – changes due to earlier intrusions
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Veranstaltung
oxic conditions!
2
 (A) maximum of the stagnation period, (B) impact of earlier intrusions winter 2013-2014
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Wind forcing and sea level changes
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3
Wind forcing in the western Baltic and sea level changes November/December 2014
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Data sources for first assessments
Veranstaltung
Darss Sill
– MARNET mast
Bathymetric map of the southwestern Baltic Sea with positions of the measurement sites
4
Arkona Basin
– MARNET bouy
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Tide-gauge data
Veranstaltung
Sea level changes at Landsort Norra, blue – hourly means, red – low pass filtered, green – numerical model
Sea level differences between Kattegat and Arkona Sea, blue – Great Belt (Hornbaek - Gedser), red - Sound (Viken - Klagshamn)
5
Vortragstitel
Volume transport estimation
Veranstaltung
-187 km³
-45 km³
+103 km³
+30 km³
+137 km³
+34 km³
-59 km³
-22 km³
Total inflow
+240 km³
+64 km³
-43 km³
-59 km³
Total inflow
+248 km³
+240 km³
Volume transport through the Belt Sea (blue) and the Sound (red) estimated from sea level differences
-195 km³
-187 km³
6
+110 km³
+103 km³
+138 km³
+137 km³
Volume transport at the Darss Sill, blue – calculated from current and salinity measurements (MARNET),
grey – sea level difference Hornbaek - Gedser
Vortragstitel
Inflow propagation at the Darss Sill
Veranstaltung
Current velocity:
Salinity
(measurements):
Salinity (model):
7
Observations of along channel velocity (a) and salinity (b) at the MARNET station
Darss Sill, compared with salinity from numerical modeling (c)
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Arkona Basin
Veranstaltung
Salinity observations at the MARNET-station Arkona Basin in November/December 2014
Sound wasser
8
Vortragstitel Inflow propagation at the Darss Sill and Arkona Basin
Results of cruise EMB092 – MARNET (December 15th-19th 2014)
Veranstaltung
 Volume estimation:
- Total volume Arkona Basin approximately 225 km³
- 140 km³ Surface water + upliftet bottom water
- 42 km³ Great Belt – Darss Sill
- 43 km³ Sound
 mean parameters of the water volumes:
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Water volume Temp [°C] Sal [g/kg] Oxy [ml/l] Turbidity [NTU]
AB >17 g/kg
7,72
20,75
6,49
0,90
Gr.Belt-Darss
7,29
18,88
6,78
0,55
Sound
8,18
22,75
6,19
1,26
Vortragstitel
Volume calculations of the MBI December 2014
Veranstaltung
Period
Vtotal [km3]
Sea level change
Landsort
VØresound [km3]
Sea level difference
Viken - Klagshamn
VØresound [km3]
Numerical model
VDarss Sill [km3]
Sea level difference
Hornbaek - Gedser
VDarss Sill [km3]
Current and salinity
measurements at
MARNET Darss Sill
VDarss Sill [km3]
Numerical model
Vtotal [km3]
VDarss Sill + VØresound
Observations
Vtotal [km3]
VDarss Sill + VØresound
Numerical model
Outflow
period
07.11.2014 –
03.12.2014
Precursory
period
03.12. 2014 –
13.12.2014
Main inflow
period
13.12.2014 –
25.12.2014
Post inflow
25.12.2014 –
31.12.2014
-242
161
162
323
-111
-45
34
(34)
0.78 Gt salt
38.9
0.85 Gt salt
137
64
(60)
1.38 Gt salt
76.4
1.44 Gt salt
240
-22
-187
30
(26)
0.60 Gt salt
37.5
0.59 Gt salt
103
-195
110
138
(138)
2.60 Gt salt
248
(138)
2.60Gt salt
-43
(9)
0.17 Gt salt
-145.8
70.6
0.16 Gt salt
140
(26)
0.60 Gt salt
108.1
0.75 Gt salt
134.4
2.24 Gt salt
172
(172)
3.38 Gt salt
173.3
3.09 Gt salt
205.0
2.40 Gt salt
312
(198)
3.98 Gt salt
281.4
3.84 Gt salt
-63.5
0.11 Gt salt
-65
(9)
0.17 Gt salt
-97
0.11 Gt salt
-67.5
-235
-213.3
Summary of transport calculations (netto transports in km³)
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Total inflow
phase
03.12.2014 –
25.12.2014
-33.4
-59
Vortragstitel Research programme to follow this large inflow event
Veranstaltung
Summary:
the large volume of the MBI will most probably turn the entire Baltic deep-water from
anoxic to oxic conditions, with wide spread consequences for marine life and geochemical
cycles for the next years
Scientific cruises:

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

December 15th-19th, 2014 – EMB092 (MARNET)
January 12th-14th, 2015 – EMB093 (SECOS)
January 26th-28th, 2015 – EMB094 (MARNET)
February 2nd-14th, 2015 – EMB095 (Baltic Monitoring)
February 17th-25th, 2015 – EMB096 (SMIS)
February 26th-March 11th, 2015 – AL451 (ILWAO)
March 17th-30th, 2015 – EMB099 (Baltic Monitoring)
April 16th-23rd, 2015 – EMB100 (SECOS)
May 1st-21st, 2015 – FRV Herwig (vTi OSF)
May 5th-15th – EMB102 (Baltic Monitoring)
Darss Sill to Arkona Basin
Arkona Basin, Bornholm Basin
Arkona Basin to Bornholm Gat
Western Baltic to Baltic Proper
Eastern Gotland Basin
Eastern Gotland Basin
Western Baltic to Baltic Proper
Bornholm Basin to Eastern GB
Arkona Basin to Eastern GB
Western Baltic to Baltic Proper
upcoming cruises:
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
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June 28th-July 5th, 2015 – R/V Salme (MSI Talinn)
Gulf of Finnland to Eastern GB
July 17th-July 29th – EMB107 (REDOX)
Eastern Gotland Basin
th
th
July 22 -August 17 – M117 (Baltic Monitoring, …)
Western Baltic to Baltic Proper
September 24th-30th – EMB113 (SMIS)
Eastern Gotland Basin
th
rd
October 18 -3 November, 2015 – POS492 (STB-AUTSTAT) Baltic Proper
October 2015 – R/V Salme (PROSID2014)
Gulf of Finnland to Baltic Proper
th
th
November 6 -17 – EMB117 (Baltic Monitoring)
Western Baltic to Baltic Proper
Vortragstitel
Veranstaltung
further information:
MOHRHOLZ, V.; NAUMANN, M.; NAUSCH, G.; KRÜGER, S.; GRÄWE, U. (2015): Fresh oxygen for the Baltic Sea
– An exceptional saline inflow after a decade of stagnation. – Journal of Marine Systems 148, 152-166.
… publications of the propagation of inflowing highly saline water in the deeper basins of the central Baltic
and their environmental impact will follow soon
12
Vortragstitel
Acknowledgements
Veranstaltung
Forecast simulation of the inflow propagation – Salinity (model: GETM, 2015 February 5th, U. Gräwe)
 numerous colleagues of our monitoring group,
vessel crew members and modelling groups
who delivered their „piece of cake“