Hotel Industry Overview - Oregon Restaurant and Lodging Association

Hotel Industry Overview - Oregon Restaurant and Lodging Association

Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Conven+on: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout Allison Cowan Business Development Associate Welcome! Allison Cowan Business Development Associate linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan Allie_STR 71% of U.S. rooms par9cipate with STR STR provides monthly, weekly and daily reports to more than worldwide hotels, which represent 47,000 6.1 million rooms. What We Do Raw Data Collected: Total Rooms Available (Supply) Total Rooms Sold (Demand) Total Room Revenue (Revenue) KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) Occ (Occupancy) ADR (Average Daily Rate) RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) PresentaHon is available for download. To view this presenta9on, go to the “Data” drop-­‐down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com and click “Data Presenta9ons”. Agenda October 14, 2013 •  Total U.S. Overview •  State of Oregon •  Deeper Dive Into Oregon •  Pipeline •  Future Performance •  Q&A Total U.S. Review Demand Growth Back to Normal. RevPAR Driven by ADR. Supply*
Demand*
Occupancy ADR* RevPAR*
Room Revenue*
1.8 bn 1.1 bn 62.0% $109 $68 $121 bn
Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicators 12 MMA through August 2013 * All Time High % Change 0.7% 2.4% 1.7% 4.0% 5.8% 6.6% July 2013: Highest Monthly Room Revenue EVER ($12.2 Billion) Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for 2013 7.7% 8 Supply Demand 4 2.3% .7% 0 -­‐0.9% -­‐4 -­‐ 4.7% -­‐8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013 2002 2004 2006 2008 -­‐ 7.1% 2010 2012 ADR Growth Stalls. Smooth Sailing From Here? 7.7% 7.5% 6.8% 5
4.0% 2.3% 0
Demand -5
ADR -­‐4.5% -­‐8.9% -10
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Total U.S. – ADR & Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
PosiHve RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future 9% 10
8.6% 5
0
-5
65 Months 112 Months 36 Mo. -­‐2.6% -10
-­‐10.1% -15
-­‐16.8% -20
1990
2000
Total U.S. – RevPAR % Change 12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013 2010
InflaHon Adjusted ADRs SHll Not Reached – Yet $119 2008 ADR Grown By CPI Nominal ADR
2000 / 2008 Grown by CPI
$107 $101 2000 ADR Grown By CPI $85 $104 $107 $85 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$111 $116 2010
Total U.S. – ADR $ and Infla9on Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2014F 2000 – 2012 CPI from bls.gov, 2013– 2014 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators 2012
2014F
State of Oregon High Growth, Surpassing Peak California 72.3% Washington 66.9% 2.7% Oregon 63.4% 4.6% Nevada Wyoming Montana 2.7% 63.5% 3.1% -­‐1.8% 58.8% -­‐0.5 Idaho Neighboring States: %Change & Actual OCC YTD August 2013 61.5% 62.3% 3.1% California At Least $20 Higher Than Neighbors California $130.67 5.7% Washington $109.66 Oregon Nevada 4.9% $99.08 4.8% $96.88 1.9% Wyoming Montana Idaho Neighboring States: %Change & Actual ADR YTD August 2013 $104.99 3.3% $93.18 3.6% $87.04 3.9% Oregon Close To Double Digit RevPAR Growth California $94.42 Washington $73.35 7.6% Oregon $62.79 Nevada Wyoming Montana 8.6% $61.54 5% $61.78 1.4% $57.27 3.2% Idaho Neighboring States: %Change & Actual RevPAR YTD August 2013 $54.26 7.1% 9.6% Deeper Dive Into Oregon Portland Market Hotels Rooms Sample
Supply
Demand
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Room Revenue
Portland Market 263 25,924 89% 6.3m 4.5m* 72% $107* $77* $482m*
Portland Mkt: Key Performance Indicators August YTD 2013 *All 9me high 0.0% 3.9% 4.0% 6.7% 11.0% 10.9% Supply Not An Issue, Strong Demand Growth ConHnues 10.0 9.2 6.3 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.6 % 0.0 -­‐2.3 -­‐5.0 -­‐4.4 Supply % Change -­‐10.0 2001 Demand % Change -­‐9.8 2003 2005 Portland Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change 12MMA 2001 to August 2013 2007 2009 2011 Year Ajer Year of (almost) ConHnuous Growth 11.0 10.3 9.9 6.9 6.7 5.2 5.6 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.9 2010 2011 2012 2013 -­‐1.9 OCC % Change ADR % Change Portland Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR %Change August YTD 2010– 2013 RevPAR % Change Weekday= Sunday-­‐Thursday Weekend= Friday & Saturday Weekday OCC: Chart Topping Rooms Sold 83% 80 70 60 50 52.7 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekday ADR: Highest August Rate On Record 120 $116.65 +$15.80 110 100 $96.07 +$6.87 90 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekend OCC: August Selling 9 Out Of 10 Rooms 100 93.6% 90 80 70 60 52.8 50 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekend ADR: Strong Rate Growth 2007
2012
115 2010
2013
$117.44 2011
+$18.88 105 95 $87.29 85 75 +$6.81 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Portland Submarkets Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West: Hotels: 35
Rooms: 2,975 Lake Oswego/ I-­‐5 South: Hotels: 47
Rooms: 3,718 Portland Airport/ Vancouver: Hotels: 84 Rooms: 8,315 Portland Downtown: Hotels: 50
Rooms: 7,499 Portland I-­‐84/ I-­‐205 East: Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,417 Portland Submarkets: August YTD 2013 Downtown & Beaverton With Strong Performance OCC % Chg ADR % Chg 62% Portland I-­‐84/ I-­‐205 Portland Downtown $75 3.7 80% 3.6 $145 70% 3.9 $88 Portland Airport/ Vancouver 7.3 5.7 68% 5.7 $96 6.4 Lake Oswego/ I-­‐5 Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West 5.3 78% 1.8 Portland Submarkets: OCC & ADR %Change YTD August 2013 $101 10.1 9%+ RevPAR Growth Across the Board Portland I-­‐84/ I-­‐205 Portland Downtown Portland Airport/ Vancouver Lake Oswego/ I-­‐5 Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West Portland Sub-­‐Markets – RevPAR % Change YTD Ending August 2013 $45.94 9.2 $113.68 $61.06 11.2 9.8 $64.56 $77.54 12.5 12.2 Oregon Area Market Oregon Area Market Hotels Rooms Sample
Supply
Demand
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Room Revenue
652 38,973 55% 9.4m* 5.5m* 57.9% $92* $53* $503m*
OR Area Mkt: Key Performance Indicators August YTD 2013 *All 9me high 0.4% 5.7% 5.3% 3.1% 8.5% 9.0% Strong KPI= Favorable Supply/Demand 8.0 5.3 4.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 -­‐0.7 -­‐0.8 -­‐4.0 Supply % Change -­‐10.0 2001 2003 Demand % Change 2005 2007 Oregon Area Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change 12MMA 2001 to August 2013 -­‐7.1 2009 2011 2013 PosiHve OCC/ADR Mix Across The Board 8.5 5.3 2010 2011 3.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 OCC % Change ADR % Change Oregon Area Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR &Change August YTD 2010– 2013 RevPAR % Change 2012 2013 Weekday= Sunday-­‐Thursday Weekend= Friday & Saturday Weekday OCC: SHll Playing Catch Up From 2007 80 2007 72.2% 2010 70 2011 2012 60 2013 50 40 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekday ADR: Breaking Records 110 $ 102.28 100 $9.82 90 80 $ 75.84 70 $9.33 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Weekend OCC: Finally Surpassing Peak 90 86.9% 80 70 60 50 40 30 2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2010
May
Jun
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 2011
Jul
2012
Aug
Sep
2013
Oct
Nov
Dec
Weekend ADR: Breaking Records…Again 120 $ 112.33 110 $9.94 100 90 80 $77.24 $8.64 70 2007
60 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month 2007 & Jan 10’-­‐ Aug’13 2010
Jul
2011
Aug
2012
Sep
Oct
2013
Nov
Dec
Oregon Area Submarkets Bend/Redmond: Hotels: 60
Rooms: 3,983
Oregon West Area: Hotels: 280
Rooms: 16,462 Eugene MSA: Hotels: 71
Rooms: 4,711 Medford/ Grants Pass: Hotels: 89 Rooms: 5,137 Oregon East Area: Hotels: 152
Rooms: 8,680 Oregon Area Submarkets: August YTD 2013 3 of 5 Submarkets Surpassing Peak OCC % Chg ADR % Chg 63% Bend/ Redmond $104 61% Medford/Grants Pass $81 57% Oregon West Area Eugene MSA, OR Oregon East Area $98 $87 6.8 4.1 2.8 2.8 63% 6.3 53% 6.4 1.1 $83 1.6 Oregon Area Submarkets: OCC & ADR %Change YTD Ending August 2013 7.7 10.3 Strong RevPAR Growth Across the Board $66 Bend/ Redmond Medford/Grants Pass Oregon West Area Eugene MSA, OR Oregon East Area $49 $56 5.7 $55 $44 Oregon Area Sub-­‐Markets – RevPAR % Change YTD Ending August 2013 7.5 8.1 11.2 18.8 Pipeline In ConstrucHon: Ground has been broken Final Planning: Construc9on will begin within 12 months Planning: Construc9on will begin within 13-­‐24 months Pre-­‐Planning: Construc9on will begin in more than 24 months Rooms in the AcHve Pipeline AcceleraHng Phase August 2013 August 2012 Difference % Change In Construc9on 78,739 66,071 12,668 19.2% Final Planning 124,591 106,281 18,310 17.2% Planning 126,337 132,259 -­‐5,922 -­‐4.5% AcHve Pipeline 329,667 304,611 25,056 8.2% Total U.S. – Rooms in Ac9ve Pipeline %Change From Last Year Under ConstrucHon Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments 29.5 21.6 10.9 7.6 4.7 3.3 1.1 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Total U.S. – Rooms Under Construc9on ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, August 2013 Economy Unaffiliated Portland Market Pipeline Snapshot Oregon Area Market Pipeline Snapshot Forecasts Total U.S.: ADR to Drive RevPAR for the Next 2 Years 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast Supply 0.8% 1.1% Demand 2.2% 2.4% Occupancy 1.4% 1.3% ADR 4.2% 4.6% RevPAR 5.7% 6.0% Total U.S. Forecasts (%Change vs. Prior Year) 2013 -­‐ 2014 Portland Market-­‐ STRA Custom Forecast 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast %Chg. %Chg. Occupancy 70% 4.1 70% 0.5% ADR $107 7.0% $114 6.8% RevPAR $75 11.4% $80 7.3% Oregon Area Market-­‐ STRA Custom Forecast 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast %Chg. %Chg. Occupancy 56% 5.2% 57% 0.5% ADR $91 3.0% $94 3.3% RevPAR $50 8.4% $53 5.5% 5 Things to Know 1.  Total U.S.-­‐ Posi9ve Demand, Rate Driven Recovery 2.  Oregon-­‐ Strong Performance Across the Board 3.  Portland-­‐ Senng KPI Highs 4.  Oregon Area-­‐ Demand Recovering, Rate Driven Recovery 5.  Outlook-­‐ Steady As She Goes Allison Cowan [email protected] 615-­‐824-­‐8664 x3420