Beuttenmuller 1 Investment Opportunity: Schuff Steel (“Schuff” or
Transcription
Beuttenmuller 1 Investment Opportunity: Schuff Steel (“Schuff” or
Beuttenmuller 1 Investment Opportunity: Schuff Steel (“Schuff” or “the Company”) (OTCPK: SHFK | Market Capitalization: $118.1mm | FV/2013A EBITDA: 4.8x) is a pink-sheet listed, steel fabrication contractor that operates in the southeastern and southwestern United States. Despite operating as the largest competitor and posting extreme growth in its backlog at the end of 2013, Schuff only trades at less than 5x 2013A EBITDA, at less than 3x 2014E EBITDA, and at slightly over book value. SHFK Valuation as of 06/18/2014 with Return Profile Firm Value ($ in mm) Market Price % Increase Shares Outstanding Equity Value Less: Cash Plus: Debt Plus: Minority Interest Firm Value Current $28.25 4.180 $118.1 (1.1) 11.8 4.3 $133.1 2013A EBITDA FV/2013A EBITDA $27.9 4.8x 2014E EBITDA FV/2013A EBITDA $46.6 2.9x Base $52.54 86.0% 4.180 $219.6 (1.0) 10.0 4.3 $232.9 $46.6 5.0x Upside $74.8 164.9% 4.180 $312.8 (1.0) 10.0 4.3 $326.1 $46.6 7.0x Why Does This Opportunity Exist Microcap: The stock has an equity value of $118mm and a firm value of $133mm, which eliminates all but the smallest of institutional investors as candidates for its investor base. Illiquidity: The daily average volume is 500 shares (~$10,000). Annual Filings: Schuff only reports once per year. Investment Highlights Backlog: As a steel fabricator, Schuff operates in a backlog-driven business, and as you can see in the chart below, revenue increases with backlog. Schuff’s EBITDA has also historically been highly correlated its own backlog (R2=.77). Schuff’s backlog increased from $186.2mm at the end of 2012 to $426.9mm at the end of 2013, representing a 130% increase. With that increase in backlog, I project revenue to grow by at least 33% and EBITDA to grow by 67%. Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Beuttenmuller 2 Valuation: With the S&P trading at ~10x FV/EBITDA, SHFK currently trades at a 4.8x FV/2013A EBITDA and slightly above book value. Relative to its own historical trading and the current market, SHFK is just plain cheap. ROE / ROIC: Despite operating in a cyclical industry, SHFK is a high-quality business, and over the last fifteen years, SHFK has averaged at 28.7% ROIC and a 26.7% ROE. Size: Only a handful of fabricators can compete for the types of projects—skyscrapers, airports and football stadiums to name a few—that Schuff does. Schuff purchases its steel directly from mills, which gives the Company as much as a 10% cost advantage, and raw material represent a large portion of a given project’s cost structure. Schuff’s size also drives a higher utilization rate of its workforce because the Company has more throughput, which in turn drives higher margins. Finally, Schuff does its own engineering in house, further distinguishing itself from its competitors. Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Beuttenmuller 3 Investment Risks Illiquidity: As discussed above, the shares are extremely illiquid. This opportunity is only suitable for small funds, and even then, if a downside case materializes, any reasonably sized position will be difficult to exit. BP Lawsuit: BP claims that one of Schuff’s subcontracts misapplied a fireproofing material to a BP refinery. BP has sued claiming damages of tens of millions; SHFK is one of many parties to the suit. I expect a negotiated settlement in the single digit millions range. Management/Ownership Change: On May 13, HC2, an entity controlled by Philip Falcone, bought the entire Schuff family’s stake. Historically, the business had been run by the Schuffs, who owned 60% of the Company up until last month. The purchase price was roughly $31/share, so HC2 did not pay much of a control premium. There are a number of ways to look at this transaction: some positive, some negative. Taking a bearish viewpoint, insider selling signals that the Schuffs did not see much upside to the current price. Taking the bullish view, management had historically been less than fair with their minority shareholders, as they attempted two take-unders, offering less than the market price to buy the business. The controlling shareholder is now a sophisticated hedge fund, and minority shareholders will benefit alongside HC2. Ultimately, my view is that investors sell for a thousand different reasons (e.g., estate planning, retirement, divorce, etc.), but investors only buy for one reason. Business Overview Schuff is the largest steel fabricator in the United States, and Schuff’s main end market is non-residential construction. The industry is regionally fragmented because steel shipping costs are high enough to eliminate any advantage for a national player. Schuff is headquartered in Phoenix, AZ and also operates in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Kansas, California and New York with offices and/or plants in each region. The company employs 1,600 people and has completed many impressive projects like the Cardinals Stadium, the Bronco's Stadium, Bank One Ballpark, Sprint Arena, the Sacramento Airport, and other large projects such as hospitals, shopping centers, and casinos. Current projects include the Brickell City Center in Miami, FL, The Source in Buena Park, CA, the Wilshire Grand tower, San Francisco Airport Tower Control, and a variety of buildings on Stanford’s campus. Schuff operates on a fixed price basis, and in times of oversupply, the margins can be quite weak. As you can see in the financial overview section, margins have started come back however: smaller players went bankrupt in the last downturn, and demand for non-residential is growing. Other Resources Though there is no institutional research coverage of the stock, a few other bloggers have picked up on the opportunity: The Variant View: http://thevariantview.com/2012/11/15/schuff-international-shfk-cheap-ugly-and-a-potentialmulti-bagger/ Oddball Stocks: http://www.oddballstocks.com/2012/10/schuff-potential-10-bagger-or-bankrupt.html OTC Adventures: http://otcadventures.com/?p=39 Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Project Shovel Financials Draft – Preliminary & Confidential Income Statement 18-yr Avg. Revenue Revenue Growth (-) Cash COGS Cash Gross Profit Gross Margin (-) SG&A EBITDA EBITDA Margin (-) D&A EBIT EBIT Margin (-) Interest Expense (-)/(+) Other Income (-) Non-Recurring Items EBT Provision for Income Tax Implied Tax Rate Net Income Revenue (/) Backlog Revenue / Prior Year Backlog 1995A 1996A $103.9 8.6% COGS (-) D&A Cash COGS 2000A 2001A 2002A Historical FYE 12/31 2003A 2004A 2005A Projected 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A $236.8 24.7% (188.0) $48.8 20.6% (24.1) $24.7 10.4% (3.5) $21.2 8.9% (11.8) 1.3 0.0 $10.7 (3.4) 31.9% $7.3 $278.1 17.4% (217.2) $60.9 21.9% (28.9) $31.9 11.5% (4.3) $27.6 9.9% (11.7) 1.1 (1.8) $15.2 (5.5) 36.2% $9.7 $234.1 (15.8%) (185.7) $48.4 20.7% (28.4) $20.0 8.5% (4.0) $15.9 6.8% (10.9) 1.6 0.0 $6.7 (2.0) 30.6% $4.6 $231.0 (1.3%) (194.5) $36.5 15.8% (23.6) $12.9 5.6% (4.0) $8.8 3.8% (10.5) 0.9 0.7 ($0.1) 0.3 526.3% $0.2 $174.2 (24.6%) (148.1) $26.1 15.0% (23.6) $2.5 1.4% (3.8) ($1.3) (0.7%) (10.1) 0.7 1.1 ($9.6) 3.5 36.6% ($6.1) $264.4 51.7% (217.9) $46.5 17.6% (27.0) $19.4 7.3% (3.3) $16.1 6.1% (9.7) 0.4 0.0 $6.9 (2.1) 31.1% $4.7 $396.8 50.1% (323.7) $73.1 18.4% (34.1) $39.1 9.8% (3.0) $36.1 9.1% (9.0) 0.5 0.0 $27.6 (10.4) 37.6% $17.2 $494.3 24.6% (397.8) $96.5 19.5% (42.6) $53.9 10.9% (4.1) $49.8 10.1% (10.2) 2.9 (1.2) $41.3 (15.5) 37.5% $25.8 $736.2 48.9% (577.5) $158.7 21.6% (55.8) $102.8 14.0% (4.5) $98.3 13.4% (7.2) 0.8 0.0 $91.9 (32.1) 34.9% $59.9 $681.6 (7.4%) (519.2) $162.5 23.8% (64.8) $97.7 14.3% (5.9) $91.8 13.5% (5.0) 0.5 0.0 $87.4 (31.0) 35.5% $56.3 $420.9 (38.3%) (317.9) $103.0 24.5% (49.9) $53.1 12.6% (7.5) $45.6 10.8% (11.1) (0.8) 0.0 $33.7 (14.8) 43.8% $19.0 $287.6 (31.7%) (237.9) $49.7 17.3% (37.6) $12.1 4.2% (8.2) $3.9 1.4% (1.4) 0.1 0.0 $2.7 (1.4) 51.2% $1.3 $392.2 36.4% (340.6) $51.6 13.2% (38.4) $13.2 3.4% (8.6) $4.6 1.2% (1.1) 0.4 (7.1) ($3.2) (1.8) (55.9%) ($5.0) $427.2 8.9% (374.3) $52.9 12.4% (34.4) $18.5 4.3% (8.2) $10.3 2.4% (5.8) 0.8 0.0 $5.3 (1.7) 31.3% $3.6 $416.1 (2.6%) (347.7) $68.4 16.4% (40.6) $27.9 6.7% (8.3) $19.6 4.7% (3.7) (0.7) 0.0 $15.2 (2.7) 17.4% $12.6 $138.2 $56.8 2.1x $189.9 $132.9 3.3x $236.8 $165.4 1.8x $278.1 $130.5 1.7x $234.1 $161.3 1.8x $231.0 $112.6 1.4x $174.2 $113.3 1.5x $264.4 $161.9 2.3x $396.8 $216.2 2.5x $494.3 $380.8 2.3x $736.2 $416.6 1.9x $681.6 $364.0 1.6x $420.9 $220.5 1.2x $287.6 $173.4 1.3x $392.2 $258.8 2.3x $427.2 $186.2 1.7x $416.1 $426.9 2.2x (15.7%) 134.1% 24.4% (21.1%) 23.6% (30.2%) 0.6% 42.9% 33.5% 76.2% 9.4% (12.6%) (39.4%) (21.4%) 49.3% (28.0%) 129.2% 1.2% 6.4% 32.2% 1.1% 8.2% 74.7% 1.4% 10.2% 55.4% 1.5% 10.4% 20.0% 1.6% 12.1% (2.0%) 1.7% 10.2% (16.7%) 1.8% 13.6% 0.0% 2.2% 10.2% 14.4% 1.2% 8.6% 25.9% 0.8% 8.6% 25.1% 0.8% 7.6% 31.1% 0.6% 9.5% 16.0% 0.9% 11.9% (22.9%) 1.8% 13.1% (24.7%) 2.8% 9.8% 2.1% 2.2% 8.1% (10.3%) 1.9% 9.7% 17.9% 2.0% $87.0 (1.3) $85.7 $118.0 (1.5) $116.4 $160.6 (2.7) $158.0 $191.6 (3.5) $188.0 $221.6 (4.3) $217.2 $189.7 (4.0) $185.7 $198.5 (4.0) $194.5 $151.9 (3.8) $148.1 $221.2 (3.3) $217.9 $326.7 (3.0) $323.7 $401.9 (4.1) $397.8 $582.0 (4.5) $577.5 $525.1 (5.9) $519.2 $325.4 (7.5) $317.9 $246.0 (8.2) $237.9 $349.1 (8.6) $340.6 $382.5 (8.2) $374.3 $356.0 (8.3) $347.7 (85.7) $18.2 17.5% (6.7) $11.5 11.0% (1.3) $10.2 9.8% (0.5) 0.3 0.0 $10.0 (4.0) 40.2% $6.0 $67.3 1.9x 9.7% 14.0% 1.5% 1999A $189.9 37.4% (158.0) $32.0 16.8% (15.5) $16.5 8.7% (2.7) $13.8 7.3% (6.8) 1.7 0.0 $8.7 (3.5) 39.6% $5.3 Growth in Backlog SG&A as a % of Sales SG&A Growth D&A as a % of Revenue 1998A $138.2 33.0% (116.4) $21.8 15.8% (8.9) $12.9 9.3% (1.5) $11.4 8.2% (0.3) 0.5 0.0 $11.6 (4.3) 37.4% $7.3 12.4% 18.3% 1997A 6.5% Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Project Shovel Financials Draft – Preliminary & Confidential Cash Flow Statement 1995A 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A Historical FYE 12/31 2003A 2004A 2005A Projected 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Net Income (+) D&A (+) Stock-based Compensation Funds from Operation (-) Change in Working Capital Cash Flow from Operation $6.0 1.3 0.0 $7.2 $7.3 1.5 0.0 $8.8 (21.3) ($12.5) $5.3 2.7 0.0 $8.0 (20.5) ($12.5) $7.3 3.5 0.1 $10.9 (9.3) $1.5 $9.7 4.3 0.1 $14.1 (0.3) $13.8 $4.6 4.0 0.0 $8.7 (4.8) $3.9 $0.2 4.0 0.1 $4.4 8.3 $12.7 ($6.1) 3.8 0.0 ($2.3) 6.2 $4.0 $4.7 3.3 0.0 $8.0 (10.2) ($2.1) $17.2 3.0 0.1 $20.3 0.3 $20.6 $25.8 4.1 0.3 $30.2 (12.8) $17.5 $59.9 4.5 0.5 $64.9 (15.9) $49.0 $56.3 5.9 1.7 $64.0 (20.8) $43.2 $19.0 7.5 1.7 $28.1 59.9 $88.0 $1.3 8.2 1.7 $11.2 4.4 $15.6 ($5.0) 8.6 0.7 $4.3 (19.0) ($14.7) $3.6 8.2 0.8 $12.7 19.4 $32.1 $12.6 8.3 0.5 $21.3 (2.2) $19.1 Capital Expenditures Cash flow from Investing ($2.3) ($3.2) ($3.2) ($2.3) ($2.3) ($7.7) ($7.7) ($8.5) ($8.5) ($4.4) ($4.4) ($1.0) ($1.0) ($1.5) ($1.5) ($1.2) ($1.2) ($7.9) ($7.9) ($5.0) ($5.0) ($9.0) ($9.0) ($25.2) ($25.2) ($18.9) ($18.9) ($10.7) ($10.7) ($3.4) ($3.4) ($4.0) ($4.0) ($10.0) ($10.0) ($15.7) ($14.8) ($6.2) $5.3 ($0.5) $11.7 $2.5 ($3.3) $12.7 $12.5 $40.0 $18.0 $69.1 $4.9 ($18.1) $28.1 $9.1 $11.4 (4.3) 1.5 0.0 (21.3) (3.2) ($15.9) $13.8 (5.2) 2.7 0.0 (20.5) (2.3) ($11.5) $21.2 (8.0) 3.5 0.1 (9.3) (7.7) ($0.3) $27.6 (10.5) 4.3 0.1 (0.3) (8.5) $12.7 $15.9 (6.1) 4.0 0.0 (4.8) (4.4) $4.8 $8.8 (3.4) 4.0 0.1 8.3 (1.0) $16.9 ($1.3) 0.5 3.8 0.0 6.2 (1.5) $7.7 $16.1 (6.1) 3.3 0.0 (10.2) (1.2) $2.0 $36.1 (13.7) 3.0 0.1 0.3 (7.9) $17.9 $49.8 (18.9) 4.1 0.3 (12.8) (5.0) $17.5 $98.3 (37.4) 4.5 0.5 (15.9) (9.0) $41.1 $91.8 (34.9) 5.9 1.7 (20.8) (25.2) $18.5 $45.6 (17.3) 7.5 1.7 59.9 (18.9) $78.5 $3.9 (1.5) 8.2 1.7 4.4 (10.7) $6.0 $4.6 (1.8) 8.6 0.7 (19.0) (3.4) ($10.2) $10.3 (3.9) 8.2 0.8 19.4 (4.0) $30.9 $19.6 (7.5) 8.3 0.5 (2.2) (10.0) $8.7 2.3% 1.2% 3.3% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.2% 3.7% 4.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 2.4% Levered Free Cash Flow EBIT (-) Unlevered Taxes (+) D&A (+) Stock-based Compensation (-) Change in Wokring Capital (-) Capital Expenditures Unlevered Free Cash Flow Capital Expenditures as a % of Revenue 38.0% 2.2% Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Project Shovel Financials Draft – Preliminary & Confidential Working Capital 1995A 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A Historical FYE 12/31 2003A 2004A 2005A Projected 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Receivables Inventory Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Total Current Assets $20.2 1.3 0.2 2.2 $23.9 $28.7 2.4 1.2 2.1 $34.3 $59.2 6.8 1.3 2.6 $69.9 $68.1 7.6 1.4 2.7 $79.8 $71.4 11.3 0.4 0.0 $83.2 $76.3 7.2 0.5 0.0 $84.0 $78.5 4.7 0.6 3.5 $87.3 $62.1 4.4 0.7 7.5 $74.8 $65.0 21.7 1.1 11.1 $98.9 $96.1 21.8 1.4 2.7 $121.9 $126.6 28.4 1.2 0.0 $156.2 $158.8 39.3 1.4 0.0 $199.5 $149.0 53.4 1.4 0.0 $203.8 $94.8 23.9 1.3 0.0 $119.9 $93.9 26.7 1.6 0.0 $122.2 $105.0 49.1 1.5 0.0 $155.6 $93.1 23.6 1.5 13.6 $131.7 $106.8 32.4 1.4 1.5 $142.1 Accounts Payable Accrued Exp. Unearned Revenue Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities $4.0 1.7 12.1 4.7 $22.6 $5.7 1.4 3.8 0.7 $11.7 $11.4 8.3 7.0 0.0 $26.7 $10.1 8.4 8.9 0.0 $27.3 $7.3 10.4 12.7 0.0 $30.4 $7.9 9.7 8.8 0.0 $26.4 $12.7 8.9 13.5 2.9 $38.0 $11.9 8.3 8.5 2.9 $31.6 $20.8 5.2 14.6 5.1 $45.6 $26.4 13.1 29.1 0.3 $68.9 $35.8 14.6 39.8 0.2 $90.4 $47.5 19.9 49.3 1.1 $117.8 $35.9 11.7 51.4 2.4 $101.4 $18.7 13.4 43.6 1.7 $77.4 $23.8 11.4 48.3 0.6 $84.1 $57.3 16.1 24.5 0.6 $98.5 $37.9 11.6 39.6 5.0 $94.1 $49.9 10.9 38.6 2.9 $102.3 Net Working Capital Change in Net Working Capital $1.4 $22.7 ($21.3) $43.2 ($20.5) $52.5 ($9.3) $52.8 ($0.3) $57.6 ($4.8) $49.3 $8.3 $43.1 $6.2 $53.3 ($10.2) $53.0 $0.3 $65.7 ($12.8) $81.7 ($15.9) $102.5 ($20.8) $42.6 $59.9 $38.1 $4.4 $57.1 ($19.0) $37.6 $19.4 $39.8 ($2.2) A/R Days 96.4 Inventory Days 23.5 Prepaid Expenses as a % of Revenue 0.4% Other Current Assets as a % of Revenue 1.1% 71.0 5.4 0.2% 2.2% 75.8 7.4 0.8% 1.5% 113.7 15.8 0.7% 1.4% 104.9 14.8 0.6% 1.1% 93.8 19.0 0.2% 0.0% 119.0 14.2 0.2% 0.0% 124.1 8.8 0.3% 1.5% 130.2 10.8 0.4% 4.3% 89.7 36.4 0.4% 4.2% 88.4 24.6 0.3% 0.7% 93.5 26.0 0.2% 0.0% 78.8 24.8 0.2% 0.0% 79.8 37.6 0.2% 0.0% 82.2 27.4 0.3% 0.0% 119.2 41.0 0.6% 0.0% 97.7 52.7 0.4% 0.0% 79.5 23.0 0.3% 3.2% 93.7 34.0 0.3% 0.4% A/P Days 29.1 Accrued Expenses as a % of COGS 3.8% Unearned Revenue as a % of Revenue 7.1% Other Current Liabilities as % of COGS 0.9% 17.2 2.0% 11.6% 5.5% 18.0 1.2% 2.7% 0.6% 26.3 5.3% 3.7% 0.0% 19.5 4.5% 3.7% 0.0% 12.2 4.8% 4.6% 0.0% 15.5 5.2% 3.8% 0.0% 23.8 4.6% 5.9% 1.5% 29.4 5.6% 4.9% 2.0% 34.8 2.4% 5.5% 2.3% 29.8 4.1% 7.3% 0.1% 32.9 3.7% 8.0% 0.1% 30.0 3.5% 6.7% 0.2% 25.2 2.2% 7.5% 0.5% 21.5 4.2% 10.4% 0.5% 36.5 4.8% 16.8% 0.3% 61.4 4.7% 6.3% 0.2% 37.0 3.1% 9.3% 1.3% 52.4 3.1% 9.3% 0.8% Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Project Shovel Financials Draft – Preliminary & Confidential Balance Sheet 1995A 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A Historical FYE 12/31 2003A 2004A 2005A Projected 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Cash And Equivalents Total Receivables Inventory Prepaid Exp. Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. Restricted Cash Other Current Assets Total Current Assets $7.3 20.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 $31.2 $0.2 28.7 2.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 $34.5 $15.4 59.2 6.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.6 $85.9 $6.8 68.1 7.6 1.4 1.4 0.0 2.7 $88.0 $11.1 71.4 11.3 0.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 $95.9 $4.6 76.3 7.2 0.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 $90.3 $10.8 78.5 4.7 0.6 2.3 0.0 3.5 $100.4 $7.6 62.1 4.4 0.7 2.7 0.0 7.5 $85.1 $6.5 65.0 21.7 1.1 1.6 0.0 11.1 $107.0 $13.7 96.1 21.8 1.4 1.1 0.0 2.7 $136.8 $13.5 126.6 28.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 $170.4 $39.0 158.8 39.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 $239.3 $40.0 149.0 53.4 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 $246.5 $47.6 94.8 23.9 1.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 $170.3 $48.0 93.9 26.7 1.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 $172.1 $7.6 105.0 49.1 1.5 3.3 0.0 0.0 $166.5 $8.8 93.1 23.6 1.5 1.9 0.0 13.6 $142.4 $1.1 106.8 32.4 1.4 1.7 0.0 1.5 $144.9 Net PP&E Goodwill Other Long-term Assets Total Assets $5.1 0.0 0.1 $36.4 $7.4 0.0 0.1 $42.0 $20.9 53.0 5.8 $165.6 $25.3 51.0 7.0 $171.4 $29.9 48.9 4.3 $179.0 $30.1 46.7 4.0 $171.1 $27.1 17.1 3.7 $148.3 $24.4 17.1 3.7 $130.3 $19.6 17.1 3.1 $146.9 $24.4 17.1 2.7 $181.0 $25.7 17.1 4.9 $218.1 $35.3 17.1 5.3 $297.0 $55.0 17.1 5.2 $323.8 $71.4 17.1 3.7 $262.5 $74.0 17.1 3.7 $267.0 $75.4 10.1 6.0 $258.0 $67.9 10.1 9.4 $229.8 $70.2 10.1 4.4 $229.6 Accounts Payable Accrued Exp. Current Portion of LT Debt Current Income Taxes Payable Unearned Revenue, Current Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities $4.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 12.1 4.7 $22.7 $5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 0.7 $12.0 $11.4 8.3 3.8 0.0 7.0 0.0 $30.6 $10.1 8.4 5.2 0.0 8.9 0.0 $32.5 $7.3 10.4 1.2 2.2 12.7 0.0 $33.8 $7.9 9.7 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 $26.4 $12.7 8.9 0.1 0.0 13.5 2.9 $38.1 $11.9 8.3 0.0 0.0 8.5 2.9 $31.6 $20.8 5.2 0.0 0.0 14.6 5.1 $45.6 $26.4 13.1 0.0 4.9 29.1 0.3 $73.9 $35.8 14.6 4.4 4.1 39.8 0.2 $98.9 $47.5 19.9 3.6 7.6 49.3 1.1 $129.0 $35.9 11.7 7.4 0.0 51.4 2.4 $108.8 $18.7 13.4 3.5 0.0 43.6 1.7 $80.8 $23.8 11.4 2.0 0.0 48.3 0.6 $86.1 $57.3 16.1 26.4 3.4 24.5 0.6 $128.3 $37.9 11.6 4.9 3.7 39.6 5.0 $102.7 $49.9 10.9 2.7 0.0 38.6 2.9 $104.9 Long-Term Debt Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities $2.8 0.0 0.3 $25.7 $4.9 0.2 0.2 $17.4 $103.9 1.6 0.4 $136.5 $101.4 2.5 0.4 $136.8 $100.2 2.3 0.4 $136.6 $95.5 2.0 2.1 $126.0 $91.2 1.9 1.7 $132.9 $87.0 1.7 0.4 $120.8 $85.0 1.6 0.3 $132.6 $74.2 1.8 0.3 $150.2 $60.7 1.5 0.3 $161.3 $48.3 2.3 0.3 $179.9 $39.3 3.7 0.3 $152.1 $10.5 5.2 0.3 $96.8 $5.6 7.0 0.2 $98.9 $29.4 7.1 0.2 $165.0 $23.5 6.1 1.7 $134.0 $9.2 6.5 0.7 $121.3 Total Common Equity (/) Total Shares Out. on Balance Sheet Date Book Value/Share Release Date Share Price One-Day after Release Date Market Price as a % of Book Value $10.7 $24.7 $29.1 $34.6 $42.4 $45.1 $15.5 $9.5 $14.3 $30.9 $56.8 $117.2 $171.7 $165.7 $168.0 $93.0 $95.7 $108.3 5.000 7.000 7.023 7.067 7.161 7.263 6.937 7.037 7.063 7.063 7.116 7.168 7.081 9.656 9.757 4.147 4.180 4.203 $2.1 $3.5 $4.1 $4.9 $5.9 $6.2 $2.2 $1.4 $2.0 $4.4 $8.0 $16.3 $24.2 $17.2 $17.2 $22.4 $22.9 $25.8 03/18/99 03/30/00 03/19/01 03/27/02 03/31/03 03/29/04 03/01/05 03/01/06 03/01/07 03/01/07 03/18/08 03/17/09 03/15/10 03/16/11 03/15/12 03/22/13 03/06/14 03/06/14 $6.3 $3.1 $4.6 $2.7 $1.2 $2.2 $2.5 $8.6 $20.0 $20.0 $23.0 $11.0 $19.0 $15.0 $11.0 $11.8 $19.0 $19.0 292.5% 88.7% 109.7% 54.6% 20.3% 34.6% 112.1% 632.0% 988.4% 457.6% 288.1% 67.3% 78.4% 87.4% 63.9% 52.4% 83.0% 73.7% Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27 Project Shovel Financials Draft – Preliminary & Confidential ROIC/ROE 1995A Working Capital Net PP&E Total Invested Capital EBIT ROIC Book Value/Share ROE 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A Historical FYE 12/31 2003A 2004A 2005A Projected 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A $1.4 5.1 $6.5 $10.2 157.3% $22.7 7.4 $30.1 $11.4 37.9% $43.2 20.9 $64.0 $13.8 21.5% $52.5 25.3 $77.8 $21.2 27.2% $52.8 29.9 $82.7 $27.6 33.4% $57.6 30.1 $87.7 $15.9 18.2% $49.3 27.1 $76.5 $8.8 11.6% $43.1 24.4 $67.5 ($1.3) (1.9%) $53.3 19.6 $72.9 $16.1 22.1% $53.0 24.4 $77.4 $36.1 46.6% $65.7 25.7 $91.4 $49.8 54.5% $81.7 35.3 $117.0 $98.3 84.1% $102.5 55.0 $157.5 $91.8 58.3% $42.6 71.4 $114.0 $45.6 40.0% $38.1 74.0 $112.2 $3.9 3.5% $57.1 75.4 $132.5 $4.6 3.5% $37.6 67.9 $105.6 $10.3 9.7% $39.8 70.2 $110.1 $19.6 17.8% $2.1 $3.5 65.0% $4.1 17.7% $4.9 17.8% $5.9 21.1% $6.2 4.9% $2.2 (64.1%) $1.4 (39.3%) $2.0 49.4% $4.4 116.0% $8.0 82.6% $16.3 104.7% $24.2 48.3% $17.2 (29.2%) $17.2 0.4% $22.4 30.2% $22.9 2.1% $25.8 12.5% Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 78.47.27.170 on 2016/10/27
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