World Wind Energy Report 2014 - World Wind Energy Association

Quarterly Bulletin
Wi n d E n e r g y A r o u n d t h e Wo rl d
Special Issue:
Special Issue 2015
World Wind Energy
Report 2014
AF GAMES
From The Editor
Dear Members and Friends of WWEA,
This special edition of our WWEA Quarterly Bulletin focuses on the worldwide wind statistics: You
will find detailed statistics and installation figures from more than 100 countries as of end of the year 2014.
Together with our international experts, we have analyzed the regional and continental deployment rates of
wind power and we present you our conclusions here as well.
In addition, we have been able to include updated statistics as of mid-2015, based on the world’s 15
largest wind markets.
Our statistics show that wind power stands still for a great success story - both years 2014 and 2015
mark new records in installations!
These statistics are reflecting only the installations in larger, grid-connected wind farms. Hence we
find it very important also to be able to present you some insights into the market for off grid electrification
systems: We have conducted a survey amongst investors in such systems, with a special focus on West
African markets. You will find interesting results and conclusions from this report.
A historic overview of the development of the Chinese wind market in the 21st century is given by
WWEA President Emeritus Dr. Preben Maegaard, who has closely worked since many years with many of the
key players in China.
With best wishes,
Stefan Gsänger
Secretary General
World Wind Energy Association
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Special Issue 2015
Published by
World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
Produced by
Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA)
Editorial Committee
Editor-in-Chief: Stefan Gsänger
Associate Editor-in-Chief: Shi Pengfei
Paul Gipe
Jami Hossain
Editors: Martina Bachvarova
Shane Mulligan
Yu Guiyong
Visual Design: Liu Zhan
Contact
Martina Bachvarova
[email protected]
Tel. +49-228-369 40-80
Fax +49-228-369 40-84
WWEA Head Office
Charles-de-Gaulle-Str. 5, 53113 Bonn, Germany
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.wwindea.org
Yu Guiyong
[email protected]
Tel. +86-10-5979 6665
01 From the Editor
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04 Special: World Wind Energy Report 2014
20 Update: Half-year Report 2015
Inside WWEA
22 New Chair of WWEA Small Wind: Morten V.
Petersen
24 China’s Way to Leadership within Wind Energy:
Background and Future
Fax +86-10-6422 8215
CWEA Secretariat
Small Wind and Off Grid
28 N. 3rd Ring Road E., Beijing, P. R. China
34 African Rural Electrification: A Private Sector
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.cwea.org.cn
2
Perspective on Investment Conditions
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Special Issue 2015
Special:
World Wind Energy Report 2014
By World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
Key Facts and Figures
➤ World wide wind capacity end of 2014:
371’559 Megawatt.
52’654 Megawatt (a 48 % increase from2013).
➤ Annual growth rate 2014/2013:16.4 %.
➤ Potential annual power output:800 Terawatt hours, >4 % of global demand.
➤ Global wind sector turnover in 2014:100 billion Euro/120 billion USD.
➤ Number of countries using wind:105.
➤ Capacity added in 2014:
➤ Largest markets for new turbines:
➤ Continental shares in overall wind capacity:
1. China:
1. Asia: 2. Germany:
3. USA:
4. Brazil:
5. India:
5.8 Gigawatt
4.8 Gigawatt
2.5 Gigawatt
2.3 Gigawatt
➤ Continental growth rates:
1. Africa:
2. Latin America: 3. Asia:
4. Oceania:
5. Europe:
6. North America:
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22.8%
20.3%
10.4%
9.7%
23 Gigawatt
2. Europe: 3. North America: 66.0%
63.3%
➤ Expected global capacity:
2017:
2020: 2030: 20.3%
39.3%
35.5%
> 500’000 Megawatt
> 700’000 Megawatt
2’000’000 Megawatt
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General Situation:
New Record in
New Installations
Without a doubt, wind power has
become a pillar of the energy systems
in many countries and is recognised
as a reliable and affordable source of
electricity.
In the year 2014, the worldwide
wind capacity reached 371’559
The world wide economic
turnover in the wind sector reached
86 billion € (100 billion US$) in 2014,
up from 68 billion € (80 billion US$)
in 2012 and 2013,and 56 billion € (65
billion US$) in the year 2011.
Rebounding
Worldwide Growth
Rate
Although 2014 saw a new
lower than the year 2012 with19.2 %,
which was already substantially below
the long term average.
Strongest Growth
in Latin America
and Africa
Latin America and Africa show
the highest growth rates, continuing
the trend towards more geographical
diversification that we have seen in
Megawatts (MW), from 319’036MW
record for new installations, growth
MW in 2010.
good indicator of the vitality of the
overcome its status as a low growth
capacity and the installed capacity of
two years ago.
in 2013, 282’810 MW in 2012,
236’813 MW in 2011 and 197’005
The market for new wind turbines
reached a new record: 52’654MW were
installed in 2014, an increase of 48 %
compared with 2013 when 35’551 MW
were erected.
The contribution of wind power
to the energy supply has reached a
substantial share even on the global
level: the total of wind turbines
installed around the globe by the end
of 2014 potentially contribute some
800 Terawatt hours to the worldwide
is still below the long-term average.
The average growth rate offers a
market. The growth rate is the relation
between the new installed wind power
the previous year.
After an average growth of 25 %
in the previous decade, sector growth
decreased in recent years, but seems
to be on the increase again. In 2014,
the global growth rate went up to 16.4
%, after 2013 saw the lowest rate in
two decades at 12.8 %. Yet 2014 is still
recent years.
Africa in particular has
region, increasing it growth rate to
66% after a low of 5.8% growth only
Similar to Africa, Latin America
has made a rebound after a low of
38.9% following 2012 and increasing
to 63.3 % following 2013. This increase
was driven in part by impressive
participation from Uruguay which
posted a growth rate of 793 %, and
Chile with a growth rate of 150 %.
electricity supply – more than 4 % of
global electricity demand.
In the year 2014, 105 countries
were identified where wind energy
isused for electricity generation. A new
entrant on the list is Samoa, a small
island state that is aiming at a 100 %
renewable energy supply by 2017.
52 countries installed new wind
turbines, up from46 in 2013.
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In total, six countries showed
a growth rate over 100%; alongside
Uruguay and Chile, they included the
Philippines with 555 %, South Africa
with 459 %, Pakistan with 142 % and
Tunisia with 137 %.
As in the last two to three years,
strong growth occurred mainly in
African, Eastern European and Latin
American markets, while the more
traditional markets in Western Europe,
North America and Asia have seen
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Two Latin American countries
showed high growth as well: Brazil
with 72 % and Honduras with 49 %.
Growth substantially above
the global average was also seen in
Australia, Turkey and Sweden.
Top Wind Markets
2014: Diversity in
Big Five Markets
The Big Five markets – China,
more modest growth.
USA, Germany, Spain, and India
Europe in 2014were found in Iceland,
decades. In 2014, they represented
The highest growth rates in
with 67 %, Finland with 40 % and
Ukraine with 34 %.
in the previous year. However, their
market position remained strong as
they added 36 GW, 61 % more than in
2013 (23 GW),accounting for 69 % of
all new installations.
The top 10 markets have
substantially increased their capacity
additions from 28 GW to 44 GW (83 %
of the total new capacity) while their
overall wind capacity share remained
constant at 84 %.
Among the top markets, China,
– have realized the bulk of wind
Germany and USA continue to play a
266 GW, or 72 % of the worldwide
of the world wind market in 2014.
power development over the last two
wind capacity, only slightly less than
very strong role: This three countries
accounted for almost two thirds (65%)
China now controls 31 % of the
global installed capacity, adding 23 GW
in 2014 (44 % of the added capacity).
China showed steady global market
share, after the peak in the year 2012
when one of every two new wind
turbines installed globally was located
in China.
Alongside China, Germany, the
UK, Canada and Brazil maintained
robust growth rates close to or above
the global average, while development
seems to have stagnated somewhat in
both Spain and Italy.
With robust growth from 8
GW to 10 GW, Canada moved up the
rankings from ninth in 2013 to seventh
in 2014. Even more surprising is
Brazil’s entrance into the top ten, with
a growth rate of 72 %. Brazil climbed
three rankings with 2 GW of additional
capacity.
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The Spanish market showed
stagnation with only 27 MW added,
equalling an increase incapacity of
0.1 %. It is expected that Spain will be
surpassed by India before March 2015
as the country with the fourth largest
wind capacity.
In total 33 countries invested
substantially in wind farms in 2014
– four more than in 2013 – with each
between 100 and 500 MW per year
– reached a total of 20 (three years
Romania, the Netherlands, Japan,
its strategy to reacha 100 % renewable
ago, only ten markets had such size):
Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Poland,
Ireland, Austria, Greece, Belgium,
Morocco, Finland, South Africa,
Uruguay, Ukraine, Pakistan, Tunisia,
the Philippines, and newcomer Peru.
By the end of 2014, 24 countries
adding at least 100 MW. Among them,
had installations of more than 1
markets.
these countries have now at least 2
China, Germany and the USA play
still an exceptional role as global lead
Ten countries can be seen as
major markets with turbine sales of
between 0.5 GW and 2.5 GW: these
are India, the UK, Canada, France,
Brazil, Sweden, Australia, Turkey,
Mexico and Chile.
In 2014, the number of medium-
sized markets for new turbines –
As of the end of 2014, 105
countries are using wind power for
GW, anumber that has remained
unchanged since 2012. However, all
GW of installed capacity, and there is
currently no country with an installed
capacity between 1 and 2 GW.
Today 54 countries are host to
wind farms with an overall capacity of
100 MW or more, up from 51 countries
one year ago. Ten years ago, in the year
2005, only 24 countries had more than
100 MW installed capacity.
electricity generation. Samoa installed
wind power for the first time, as part of
energy supply by 2017.
Installed Capacity
by Country Size
In order to understand the
actual commitment of a country to
wind power and its progress in wind
power utilization, it is worthwhile to
look not only at the total figures, but
also to examine the installed capacity
in relation to the size of a country.
When we do so it becomes clear
that some of the smaller countries
have made remarkable progress in
wind power utilization, and also
reveals the potential of wind power
utilization.
The Pacific French territory
of New Caledonia, for instance, is
the new leader in terms of installed
wind capacity per person: for each
inhabitant, the territory has an
installed wind capacity of 1426 Watts;
it is followed by Denmark which has
877 Watts installed per inhabitant.
Among the major countries, Sweden,
Germany, Spain, Ireland and Portugal
rank in the top ten per capita. The USA
now ranks 15th, with just over 200
Watts per person, and China ranks
34th, with 87 Watts per person. While
far behind their absolute rankings,
both China and USA are still above
the world per capita average of 53
Watts per person. India is even lower,
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and well below the global average, in
position 57 with 18 Watts per person,.
If the world follows the example
of today’s Danish wind capacity per
capita, this would mean 6’000’000 MW
of installed wind capacity;if it were
to follow New Caledonia, the global
capacity would exceed 10’000’000 MW.
Looking at Watts per unit land
area, the small territory of Aruba have
the top position, again followed by
Denmark and Germany, then (in
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MW, such �igures have actually to be
seen as realistic scenarios.
Offshore Wind:
British Dominance
The market for offshore wind
turbines slowed down in 2014:1’480
MW were installed, after 1’941 MW in
2013 and 1’903 MW in 2012. By the
end of 2014, the cumulative offshore
wind capacity had reached 8.9 GW.
In 2014, the growth in offshore
wind was well above the average
growth rate of the onshore wind sector
and, accordingly, the share of offshore
wind in the total worldwide wind
capacity went up from 2.3 % in 2013 to
2.4 % in 2014. However, compared with
the previous year, the share of offshore
wind in new installations shrunk to 2.8
% in 2014, from 5.4 % in 2013.
A total of 13 countries now
order) by the Netherlands, Belgium,
Portugal, the United Kingdoms and
Spain.
However, neither China, USA nor
India are amongst the top 20: China
holds position 25 (12’000 Watt per
square kilometre), India ranks 30th
(6’800 Watt/sqkm), and the USA
is32nd(6’700 Watt/sqkm).
The global average, only
considering countries with wind
installations, is currently at 18,4 kW
per square kilometer.
If all countries had the same
density today as Germany or Denmark,
the world would see a total installed
capacity of 17’000’000 MW, more than
enough to meet the world’s complete
electricity demand. If the global
density was similar to Guadeloupe, the
global wind capacity would be more
than 50’000’000 MW.
In light of an identi�ied global wind
potential of more than 100’000’000
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* Erratum: in the �irst version of the Bulletin, Gualeloupe appears as
the region with the most wind capacity installed by land area.
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Special Issue 2015
have offshore wind farms, eleven in
– shift has occurred, in that Europe is
farms in 2014: the United Kingdom,
to modest growth rates in recent
Europeand two in Asia. Only three
countries added major offshore wind
Belgiumand Germany.
The UK represented 54 % of
the offshore market (36 % in 2013)
and added 813 MW of offshore wind
turbines. The country has a exceptional
role and a dominant position in the
offshore wind sector. More than half of
all offshore wind turbines are currently
no longer the continent with highest
installed wind energy capacity. Due
% of global wind capacity was to be
found in North America.
Latin America saw major
years, Europe has now lost its
progress for the fourth year in a
capacity, compared to Europe’s
2011, 4 % in 2012 and 5 % in 2013 to
dominant position to Asia, which now
represents 39 % of the total installed
36 %. In terms of new capacity,
Europe accounted for 33 % in 2014,
compared to Asia’s 52 %.
After several years of decline,
row,increasing its share in new
capacity from 1.2 % in 2010, 2.9 % in
substantial 8.3 % in 2014. In share of
total capacity, Latin America improved
from 1 % in 2010 to 3 % in 2014.
Africa’s share in new installations
installed in British waters.
the North American share has
increased to 1.9 % in 2014, after 1.2
position after installing 528 MW of
market. North America’s share of new
representing about one seventh of the
Germany moves to the second
offshore turbines. Offshore wind
now represents 3.4 % of the total
installations in Germany.
Denmark, now third in the
increased again, mainly due to the
very strong performance of the US
wind turbines recovered from a low
of 7 % in the year 2013 to reach13
% in 2014. By the end of 2014, 20.3
% in 2013. However, the continent
has still a long way to go: although
world’s population, only one out of 150
wind turbines have been installed on
this continent so far.
ranking, didn’t have any new
installations in 2014.
Belgium became the third largest
market for new offshore turbines in
2014, installing 141 MW in a year.
Other counties like Japan or
Korea have ambitious offshore wind
programmes, however, both countries
face major technical challenges, due
in particular to deep water which
requires innovative technical solutions.
Continents:
Asia Now
Undisputed Leader,
ahead of Europe
A notable – but not unexpected
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Africa
The total of all wind turbines
installed in Africa in 2014 reacheda
capacity of 2’455,1 MW (0.7 % of the
global capacity), of which 976 MW
were added in 2014 (compared with
418 MW added in 2013).
After many years of stagnation,
Africa had the highest growth rate of
all continents: 66 %. Two years ago,
growth was only at 6 %.
now taken over this role.
schemes will be needed to support
commercial wind turbines could be
markets,of which three are found in
implement feed-in tariff programmes,
them. New capacity included new wind
and Tunisia (245 MW).
As in the previous year,
found in 12 African countries, though
with quite diverse market sizes among
farms in five countries:Morocco, Egypt,
South Africa, Tunisia and Nigeria.
Africa has a new leader in terms
of installed capacity: after more than
a decade in which Egypt was the top
African Wind country, Morocco has
Asia
Asia continued to be the
continent showing the strongest
increase in installed capacity in 2014,
adding 27 GW, following from17 GW in
2013.
The total installed wind capacity
in Asia is now 146 GW, representing
39 % of global capacity.
A total of 19 Asian countries are
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Africa now has five major wind
Northern Africa: Morocco (787 MW
installed capacity), Egypt (616 MW)
Two Subsaharan countries are
now also playing an important role:
South Africa(570 MW), one of the new
shooting stars, and Ethiopia (171 MW).
In general, new political support
the financing of additional wind
farms in Africa. Governments should
with a special focus on community
development, including community
ownership models.
A special consideration should
be given to small scale and hybrid
systems for rural electrification, so
that hundreds of millions Africans in
unserved areas can eventually benefit
from modern electricity services.
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Special Issue 2015
using wind power today, however
there are only two big markets, China
market size, similar to that of 2014, is
Turkey, geographically
expected.
predominantly in Asia, again showed
of more than 100 MW: Japan, Chinese
market for new turbines worldwide.
of wind capacity. The private sector
these nine countries have added new
(after adding 1’829 MW in 2013 and
and India, and seven smaller and
medium sized markets with a capacity
Taipei (Taiwan), South Korea, Pakistan,
Thailand, Philippines, and Iran. Only
capacity during the year 2014.
The continent’s growth rate has
recovered from a low17 % in 2013,
reaching 23 % in 2014. This is still
far from the value achieved in 2010,
of 51 %.
Ten Asian countries and regions
installed new wind turbines during
the year 2014: China, India, Japan,
South Korea, Turkey (most wind farms
In 2014 India was the fifth largest
Similar to previous years, the country
showed an increase of 2’315 MW
2’441 MW in 2012), reaching a total
capacity of 22.5 GW. In general, the
Indian wind market has a very good
future potential. One indicator of
this is the recently increased wind
All other countries have market shares
of less than 2 %.
With 114 GW, China already
fulfilled its goal of 100 GW for the
year 2015 more than a year in
advance. In the coming years, a stable
Australia and Oceania
The region including Australia
and Oceania increased its installed
capacity by 757 MW, equalling a
government still seems to favour more
expensive nuclear power, although
wind power is one of the cheapest
electricity sources in Turkey.
As in previous years,South Korea
in 2013. Several large and well-known
confidence.
Japan lost one place in the global
with an additional 130 MW in 2014.
India with 15 % (from17 % in 2013).
in wind power investment, while the
bills have damaged investors’
uncertainties and unpaid electricity
years, accounted for a majority (78 %)
of the Asian wind capacity, followed by
in the country shows strong interest
showed only modest growth in 2014:
to more than 300 GW. However, policy
ranking, being passed by Romania,
Iran and Thailand. China, asin previous
646 MW in 2013) and reaching 3.7 GW
potential assessment, which was lifted
are on the Asian part of this country),
Pakistan, Chinese Taipei, Philippines,
strong growth, adding 804 MW (after
but continued to be number three in
Asia with a total capacity of 2.8 GW
the country added 48 MW, reaching a
total capacity of 609 MW, after 79 MW
Korean companies have recently
pulled back on wind investments,
and the country seems poised to lose
momentum in a future key technology
and industry.
After no installations in 2013,
However, the expected shift toward
Pakistan installed 150 MW of capacity in
not yet resulted in a major take-off
government of Pakistan, analysed the
more renewable energy after the
nuclear accident in Fukushima has
of the Japanese wind market, neither
onshore nor offshore. Still, long
permission processes remain a major
hurdle against rapid development of
wind power in the country.
growth of 20.3 % - a record high after
2014, reaching a cumulative capacity of
256 MW.WWEA, in cooperation with the
main barriers for wind investment, and
the government has started improving
the situation based on the conclusions
of the study. Hence, new wind farms are
expected to go online in 2015.
Australia added 757 MW of new
several years of very modest growth.
capacity in 2014, reaching 3’806 MW
Samoa (0.5 MW).
industry that new investment is
All of the additional new capacity was
in Australia and the newcomer state of
total.Unfortunately the Australian
government gave a signal to the wind
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Special Issue 2015
not really welcome, and targets for
renewable energy have been reduced.
The new conditions were so bad that
WWEA decided not to hold the World
Wind Energy Conference in Sydney in
2015, but to wait until a better political
environment is in place. The new
Australian government is expected to
create more favourable frameworks in
future.
Europe
The wind capacity in Europe
grew from 119 GW in 2013 to 132 GW
in 2014. This equals a growth rate of
10.4 % (compared with 11 % in 2013)
which led Europe to lose its number
one position in terms of total capacity.
Europe added 12.4 GW in 2013 (after
11.9 GW in 2012).In all, 34 European
countries had wind installations, more
than on any other continent.
Germany added a record amount
of 5’808 MW in 2014, becoming
the second largest market for new
turbines worldwide, and continued
to be biggest wind market on the
continent, reaching a total capacity of
more than 40 GW. These installations
include some wind farms that were
installed but not yet feeding into the
tenders for major projects, replacing
Spain continued losing market share.
investment landscape in the country,
future of wind power in the country is
the current feed-in tariff. This
change may completely change the
as many typical investors, especially
cooperatives and SMEs, will struggle
with the new frameworks.
The second largest European
grid by end of 2014. The German
market for wind turbines was, for
energy legislation: The backbone
reach a total capacity of 12.4 GW. Close
wind boom has been caused mainly
by anticipated changes in renewable
of German Energiewende, the EEG
law, has been amended and in 2015
the government wants to introduce
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the third time in a row, the United
Kingdom, which installed 1.7 GW to
to 50 % of the new installations were
offshore.
Former pioneer and lead market
Only 27 MW were installed in 2014
and 2015 is expected to be similar. The
far from clear.
Italy substantially decreased
its market activity to 107 MW, from
444 MW in 2013. France became the
fourth largest market in Europe with a
total capacity of 9.2 GW (1 GW of new
installations). Sweden reached the
1 GW mark of new installations in a
year and is now number eleven in the
world ranking, with 5.4 GW installed.
Romania (3.2 GW) and Poland (3.8
GW)continued with a modest but very
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Special Issue 2015
stable market growth, adding 437 MW
and 444 MW respectively.
Amongst the CIS countries,
Ukraine installed a capacity of 126
MW in 2014, Azerbaijan 50 MW and
Kazakhstan 38.4 MW.
Several European countries have
reached very high wind power shares
overly bright as the EU council adopted
wind, Spain and Portugal both
competitiveness of wind power on
in their electricity supply: Denmark
had 34 % of its power coming from
exceeded 20 %, Ireland was at 16 %
and Germany was close to 10 %.
The mid-term prospects of the
European Union markets are not
very modest renewable energy targets
for the year 2030. However, increasing
liberalised power markets, and strong
public pressure in favour of clean and
inexhaustible energy sources, are
factors in favour of a sound future of
wind power.
Latin America
In 2014, Latin America became
the most dynamic continent for wind
power investment, mainly due to
Uruguay, Chile and Brazil. Uruguay
netted a growth rate of 793 %, the
highest ever seen.
The continent has significantly
increased its global share in both
new wind turbines installations,
reaching 8,3 % (from 4 % in 2013)
Uruguay (470 MW), Peru (147 MW,
regarded as in a state of infancy.
% in 2013.
Rica (50 MW), Nicaragua (44 MW)
can be observed in the Caribbean
and in cumulative installed capacity
with a share of 3 % in 2014, from 1,8
Nine Latin American countries
installed new wind turbines in the
with a first major windfarm in the
country), Argentina (53 MW), Costa
andHonduras (50 MW).
With the exception of Brazil,
year 2014: Brazil (2’495 MW new),
Mexico,Chile, and Uruguay, most Latin
North America
after its all-time low growth rate in
Mexico (559 MW), Chile (502 MW),
In the year 2014, North
America re-gained some strength
American wind markets can still be
2013 of 4.1 %. However, its growth
rate of 9.7 % is still well below the
global average.
A growing interest in wind power
and Central American countries. New
projects will be developed in the near
future in countries like Cuba Honduras
and Guatemala, which is currently
constructing its first wind farm of 50 MW.
Despite the growth, the USA
became the third biggest market for
new turbines in 2014 after China and
Germany.
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Special Issue 2015
Still there are major regulatory
uncertainties in North America: The
long-term future of the national
support scheme in the US is unclear,
although the Obama administration
recently made clear statements in
favour of renewable energy and also
indicating stronger commitments
within the UN climate change
frameworks.
The Canadian market saw an
increase of 25.9 % in 2014. Some 1’871
MW were installed in 2014, after 1’
497 MW in 2013 and 936 MW in 2012,
Future challenges
and prospects
worldwide
Six major drivers will have a
decisive impact on the mid-term and
long-term prospects of wind power:
1. The ongoing debate on climate
to a total of 9.7 GW.
Major growth is expected to occur
4. Increasing awareness regarding
the hazardous risks and high costs
related with the utilisation of nuclear
energy, driven by reports on the
nuclear disaster in Fukushima, along
with recent reports of cost overruns
on new nuclear projects in Finland,
France and UK.
5. The increasing awareness
change and how to develope missions-
regarding the potentials and actual
supply globally.
supply which is economically, socially,
free energy solutions – eventually
aimed at a 100 % renewable energy
2. The depletion of fossil as well as
nuclear resources, especially reflected
in fluctuating oil and gas prices which
represent a huge challenge for the
developing countries especially.
3. An increasing number of
local communities, regions and
countries which are proving that 100
% renewable energy is practically
possible.
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contributions of wind and other
renewable energies to an energy
as well as ecologically sustainable.
6. Further improvements in
wind energy and related technologies,
including balancing, backup and
in North America in 2015, especially in
the USA where more than 12.7 GW are
now under construction.
frameworks, institutions and policies.
The world community as well as
national governments will have to set
up additional policies in favour of wind
energy.
Special consideration has to be
given to the deployment of renewable
energy in the so-called developing
countries.
Incentives for decentralised and
integrated 100 % renewable energy
supply need to be created, again
especially but not exclusively for
developing countries.
Another key issue for the
storage technologies.
prospects of wind power is social
full potential of wind and other
that social acceptance is significantly
In order to make use of the
renewable energies, it will be of crucial
importance to strengthen the related
acceptance. Studies from Scotland,
Germany, the USA and Australia suggest
higher in the case of wind farms which
are owned by the local community.
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Obviously in such cases opposition
against wind power is also significantly
lower – and incomprehensive
arguments against wind power like
health concerns don't play a relevant
role in the public debate.
Policymakers have to draw the
right conclusions from such results
and introduce legislation that favours
community based ownership models
of wind farms instead of favouring only
large corporations.
It is encouraging to see that
renewable energy is about to move
into the center of the debate at the UN
Climate Change conferences. Some
experts have already proposed the
creation of a completely new global
forum for the worldwide expansion
of renewable energies. It will be of
crucial importance for the final success
of all international climate change
negotiations that the key role of
renewable energies is recognised and
the global Energiewende will be started.
In order to provide more financial
resources on an international level,
WWEA has suggested, together with
our partners of the International
Renewable Energy Alliance, a Global
Feed-in Tariff Programme as part of
expected in several Latin American
support schemes could pave the way.
markets. In the mid-term, some of
the Green Climate Fund. For off-grid
applications, loan guarantees and
Forecast 2020
In spite of the need to reinforce
national and international policies and to
accelerate the deployment of wind power,
it is evident that the global appetite for
investment in wind power is strong, and
many projects are in the pipeline.
Further substantial growth can
be expected especially in China, India,
Europe and North America.
Very high growth rates can be
countries, in particular in Brazil, as well
as in new Asian and Eastern European
the African countries will see major
investment, above all in Northern
Africa, but also in South Africa.
Based on the current growth
rates, WWEA revises its expectations
for the future growth of the global
wind capacity:
In the first half of the year 2017,
the global capacity is expected to hit
500’000 MW. By the end of year 2020, at
least 700’000 MW is expected globally.
For the year 2030, a global wind
capacity of 2’000’000 MW is possible.
15
Report
Position
2014
16
Special Issue 2015
Country/Region
Total
Added
capacity
capacity
end 2014
2014
[MW]
[MW]
Growth
rate 2014
[%]
Installed
Installed
Total
Total
Total
Total
Capacity
Capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
per Capita
per sqkm
end 2013
end 2012
end 2011
end 2010
W/person
kW/sqkm
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
1
China
114'763.0
23'350.0
25.7
84.7
12.0
91'324.0
75'324.0
62'364.0
44'733.0
2
United States
65'754.0
4'854.0
7.6
206.2
6.7
61'108.0
59'882.0
46'919.0
40'180.0
3
Germany
40'468.0
5'808.0
16.8
499.6
113.3
34'660.0
31'315.0
29'075.0
27'215.0
4
Spain
22'986.5
27.5
0.1
481.5
45.5
22'959.0
22'796.0
21'673.0
20'676.0
5
India *
22'465.0
2'315.1
11.5
18.2
6.8
20'150.0
18'321.0
15'880.0
13'065.8
6
United Kingdom
12'440.3
1'736.4
16.1
195.2
51.0
10'710.9
8'635.9
6'018.0
5'203.8
7
Canada
9'694.0
1'871.0
25.9
278.3
1.0
7'698.0
6'201.0
5'265.0
4'008.0
8
France
9'296.0
1'042.0
12.6
140.3
14.4
8'254.0
7'499.8
6'607.6
5'628.7
9
Italy
8'662.8
107.5
1.3
140.4
28.7
8'551.0
8'144.0
6'737.0
5'797.0
10
Brazil
5'961.6
2'495.5
72.0
29.4
0.7
3'466.1
2'507.0
1'429.0
930.0
2'052.0
11
Sweden
5'425.0
1'050.0
21.4
557.9
12.0
4'470.0
3'745.0
2'798.0
12
Portugal *
4'953.0
229.0
4.0
454.4
53.4
4'724.0
4'525.0
4'083.0
3'702.0
13
Denmark
4'883.0
111.0
2.3
876.8
113.3
4'772.0
4'162.0
3'927.0
3'734.0
14
Poland
3'834.0
444.0
13.1
100.0
12.3
3'390.0
2'497.0
1'616.4
1'179.0
15
Australia
3'806.0
757.0
24.8
169.1
0.5
3'049.0
2'584.0
2'226.0
1'880.0
16
Turkey
3'763.0
804.0
27.2
46.1
4.8
2'959.0
2'312.0
1'799.0
1'274.0
17
Romania
3'220.0
437.0
15.7
148.2
12.6
2'783.0
1'905.0
826.0
591.0
18
Netherlands
2'805.0
141.0
4.2
166.2
67.5
2'693.0
2'391.0
2'328.0
2'269.0
2'304.0
19
Japan *
2'788.0
130.4
4.5
21.9
7.4
2'669.0
2'614.0
2'501.0
20
Mexico
2'551.0
559.0
28.1
21.2
1.3
1'992.0
1'348.0
929.0
521.0
21
Ireland
2'272.0
222.0
10.9
470.1
32.1
2'049.0
1'738.0
1'631.0
1'428.0
22
Austria
2'095.0
411.0
24.4
254.8
25.0
1'684.0
1'378.0
1'084.0
1'010.6
1'208.0
23
Greece
1'980.0
114.0
6.2
183.7
15.0
1'865.0
1'749.0
1'626.5
24
Belgium
1'959.0
308.0
18.7
187.5
64.2
1'651.0
1'375.0
1'078.0
886.0
25
Norway
856.0
88.0
11.5
166.3
2.6
768.0
703.0
520.0
434.6
26
Chile
836.0
502.0
149.6
48.1
1.1
335.0
190.0
190.0
170.0
27
Morocco
787.0
300.0
61.6
23.9
1.8
487.0
291.0
291.0
286.0
28
Bulgaria
691.0
10.0
1.5
99.8
6.2
681.0
674.0
503.0
499.0
29
Chinese Taipei
633.0
18.8
3.1
27.1
17.6
614.2
563.8
563.8
518.7
30
Finland
627.0
179.0
40.0
119.0
1.9
448.0
288.0
197.0
197.0
31
New Zealand
623.0
0.0
0.0
141.5
2.3
623.0
622.8
622.8
506.0
32
Egypt
616.0
66.0
12.0
7.1
0.6
550.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
33
Korea, South
609.0
47.7
8.5
12.4
6.1
561.3
482.6
406.3
379.3
34
South Africa
570.0
468.0
458.8
11.8
0.5
102.0
10.1
10.1
10.0
35
Uruguay
529.4
470.0
792.7
158.8
3.0
59.3
55.7
40.5
30.5
36
Ukraine
409.5
126.3
34.0
9.2
0.7
371.0
276.0
151.1
87.4
37
Croatia
347.0
45.0
14.9
77.6
6.1
302.0
180.0
131.0
89.0
38
Hungary
329.4
0.0
0.0
33.2
3.5
329.4
329.4
329.4
295.0
39
Estonia
302.7
22.7
8.1
240.6
6.7
280.0
269.0
184.0
149.0
40
Czech Republic
283.0
14.0
5.2
26.6
3.6
269.0
260.0
217.0
215.0
41
Lithuania
279.0
0.0
0.0
79.6
4.3
279.0
225.0
179.0
163.0
42
Argentina
271.0
53.0
24.8
6.3
0.1
217.1
140.9
129.2
54.0
43
Pakistan
256.0
150.0
141.5
1.3
0.3
106.0
106.0
6.0
6.0
44
Tunisia
245.0
141.0
135.6
22.4
1.5
104.0
104.0
54.0
54.0
45
Thailand
223.0
30.0
15.5
3.3
0.3
193.0
112.0
8.0
0.0
46
Philippines
216.0
183.0
554.5
2.0
0.7
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
Report
Special Issue 2015
Position
2014
Country/Region
Total
Added
capacity
capacity
end 2014
2014
[MW]
[MW]
Growth
rate 2014
[%]
Installed
Installed
Total
Total
Total
Total
Capacity
Capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
per Capita
per sqkm
end 2013
end 2012
end 2011
end 2010
W/person
kW/sqkm
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
47
Costa Rica
198.0
50.0
33.6
41.6
3.9
148.2
148.2
148.2
123.0
48
Nicaragua
186.0
44.4
31.4
31.8
1.4
141.6
102.0
63.0
63.0
49
Ethiopia
171.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
-
171.0
51.0
30.0
0.0
0.0
50
Honduras
152.0
50.0
49.0
17.7
1.4
102.0
102.0
70.0
51
Peru
148.0
147.3
∞
4.9
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
52
Cyprus
147.0
0.0
0.0
125.4
15.9
147.0
147.0
134.0
82.0
53
Puerto Rico
125.0
0.0
0.0
34.5
13.7
125.0
125.0
0.0
0.0
54
Iran
117.5
17.5
17.5
1.5
0.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
55
Dominican Republic
85.3
0.0
0.0
8.2
0.7
85.3
33.6
33.6
0.2
56
Latvia
68.0
0.0
0.0
31.4
1.1
68.0
68.0
31.0
30.0
57
Switzerland
60.3
0.0
0.0
7.5
1.5
60.3
50.0
45.5
42.3
44.0
58
Luxembourg
58.0
0.0
0.0
111.4
22.4
58.0
58.0
44.0
59
Mongolia
50.9
0.0
0.0
17.2
-
50.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
60
Jamaica
47.7
0.0
0.0
16.3
4.3
47.7
47.7
47.7
29.7
61
New Caledonia
38.2
0.0
0.0
1426.2
2.1
38.2
38.2
38.2
38.2
62
Vietnam
31.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
63
Aruba
30.0
0.0
0.0
271.1
168.5
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
64
Venezuela
30.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
-
30.0
30.0
0.0
0.0
65
Guadeloupe
26.8
0.0
0.0
5.90
16.5
26.8
26.8
26.8
26.8
66
Cabo Verde
25.5
0.0
0.0
47.4
6.3
25.5
25.5
25.5
2.8
67
Reunion Island
23.4
0.0
0.0
27.8
9.3
23.4
23.4
23.4
23.4
19.5
68
Colombia
19.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
-
19.5
19.5
19.5
69
Ecuador
19.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.1
19.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
70
Faroe Islands
18.3
14.3
357.5
366.4
13.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
71
Russia
16.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
-
16.8
16.8
16.8
15.4
72
Guyana
13.5
0.0
0.0
18.4
0.1
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.5
73
Curacao
12.0
0.0
0.0
81.7
27.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
74
Cuba
11.7
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.1
11.7
11.7
11.7
11.7
75
Bonaire
10.8
0.0
0.0
652.9
36.7
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
76
Algeria
10.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
-
10.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
77
Fiji
10.0
0.0
0.0
11.1
0.5
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
78
Dominica
7.2
0.0
0.0
98.0
9.6
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
79
Israel
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
80
Belarus
3.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
-
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
81
Nigeria
3.2
1.0
45.5
-
-
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
82
Iceland
3.0
1.2
66.7
9.5
-
1.8
1.8
0.0
0.0
83
Slovakia
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
84
Vanuatu
3.0
0.0
0.0
11.2
0.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
85
St. Kitts and Nevis
2.2
0.0
0.0
40.6
8.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
0.0
86
Azerbaijan
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
87
Kazakhstan
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.5
88
Antarctica
1.6
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
89
Jordan
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
-
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
90
Indonesia
1.4
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
91
Madagascar
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
-
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0
92
Martinique
1.1
0.0
0.0
2.8
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
17
Report
Position
2014
Special Issue 2015
Country/Region
Total
Added
capacity
capacity
end 2014
2014
[MW]
[MW]
Growth
rate 2014
[%]
Installed
Installed
Total
Total
Total
Total
Capacity
Capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
capacity
per Capita
per sqkm
end 2013
end 2012
end 2011
end 2010
W/person
kW/sqkm
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
[MW]
93
Mauritus
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
94
Falkland Islands
1.0
0.0
0.0
341.1
0.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
95
United Arab Emirates
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.2
-
0.9
1.0
96
Eritrea
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
-
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
97
Grenada
0.7
0.0
0.0
6.4
2.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
98
St. Pierre-et-M.
0.6
0.0
0.0
101.9
2.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
99
Syria
0.6
0.0
0.0
-
-
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
100
Samoa
0.5
0.5
∞
2.5
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
101
Namibia
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
-
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
102
North Korea
0.2
0.0
0.0
-
-
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
103
Afghanistan
0.1
0.0
0.0
-
-
0.1
0.1
-
-
104
Bolivia
0.1
0.0
0.0
-
-
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
105
Nepal
0.1
0.0
0.0
-
-
Total
371'374
52'565
16.4
0.1
0.1
-
-
318'530
282'608
236'803
197'004
Photo: Tian yucai
18
Special Issue 2015
Report
8
19
Report
Special Issue 2015
Update:
Half-year Report 2015
By World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
5.8% within six months (after 5.6 % in
the same period in 2014 and 4.9 % in
2013) and by 16.8 % on an annual basis
(mid-2015 compared with mid-2014).
In comparison, the annual growth rate
in 2014 was lower (16.5 %).
Reasons for the relatively positive
development of the worldwide wind
markets are certainly the economic
advantages of wind power, after
– 21.7 GW of new installations in the first half of 2015,
after 17 GW in 2014
– Worldwide wind capacity has reached 392 GW, 428 GW
expected for full year
– China close to 125 GW of installed capacity
– Newcomer Brazil: fourth largest market for new wind
turbines
The worldwide wind capacity
reached 392’927 MW by the end of
June 2015, out of which 21’678 MW
were added in the first six months of
2015. This increase is substantially
higher than in the first half of 2014
20
all its increasing competitiveness,
uncertainties regarding the
international oil and gas supply, and
the pressing need to go for emission
free technologies in order to mitigate
climate change and air pollution.
Stefan Gsänger, WWEA Secretary
General: “The world market for
wind power is booming like never
before, and we expect new record
installations for the total year 2015.
and 2013, when 17.6 GW respectively
13.9 GW were added. All wind turbines
installed worldwide by mid-2015 can
generate 4 % of the world’s electricity
demand.
The global wind capacity grew by
The main markets are still China –
with an astonishing growth of more
than 10 Gigawatt within six months
– USA, Germany and India. Brazil
showed the highest growth rate of
all major markets, the country has
increased its wind power capacity by
14 % since the beginning of this year.
Report
Special Issue 2015
Major markets-H1 2015 growth rates
However, several of the European
expected regulatory changes are in
small and medium sized enterprises,
expects a major slowdown in the
today driven by a large variety of
success, it will be crucial to continue
markets are now very flat, and also
the largest European market Germany
coming one to two years, after the
force.
The wind industry globally is
shareholders and stakeholders, from
large industries, energy cooperatives to
environmental groups. For the future
and rather increase this variety.”
21
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
New Chair of WWEA Small Wind:
Morten V. Petersen
Mr Morten V. Petersen, Chair of the Danish
Small Wind Association, has been appointed as
new Chair of the WWEA Small Wind section. Mr
Petersen has been involved in renewables and
in particular in small wind since many years
and has also broad international experience,
living and working in Europe and Asia.
As Chairman of the small wind section
of the World Wind Energy Association, Mr
Petersen will guide the work of this group in
a voluntary function. In a first statement, he
underlined the important role of small wind in
the future energy supply and the importance of
strict quality standards for this technology.
Morten V. Petersen, Chair of WWEA Small
Wind: “Small wind has to play a vital role in the
global energy supply, in particular in a more
distributed energy system. This is the case for
industrialized countries, like my home country
Denmark, but even more in the developing
world where small wind hybrid system are
often the ideal and only practical solution to
provide energy access.
We must be aware that in order to increase
small wind share in the global energy mix, the
industry has still to grow and mature, with
the help of smart government policies which
support the uptake of this sector. One key for
the success of small wind will be the focus on
global and harmonized quality standards."
Stefan Gsänger, WWEA Secretary General:
“I look forward to working even more closely
with Morten on small wind dissemination
strategies. With his many years of his
experience, in particular from a business
viewpoint, he will be a great asset for WWEA’s
work. Small wind is an important technology
and has the potential to deliver electricity to
hundreds of millions all over the world.”
WWEA Small Wind:
WWEA Small Wind has approximately 100 members from all sub-sectors of the small wind industry and is
growing rapidly, in parallel with the growing interest in small wind technology around the world. Amongst the
WWEA Small Wind members are the leading manufacturers of small wind turbines, national small wind associations,
scientists, etc.
The main activities of WWEA Small Wind include the organisation of the annual World Summit for Small Wind,
the main international meeting point of the global small wind community, and the publication of the Small Wind
World Report. On the WWEA Small Wind portal www.small-wind.org, updated market information can be found about
national small wind markets, products and services.
22
Special Issue 2015
Inside WWEA
23
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
China’s Way to Leadership
within Wind Energy:
Background and Future
By Preben Maegaard
Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy, Denmark
Introducing Wind
Power
In 2004, Chinese Wind Energy Association
(CWEA) and World Wind Energy Association
(WWEA) jointly held the 3rd World Wind
Energy Conference in Beijing. Being the
president of the WWEA, I became conference
chairman, which put me in a very privileged
role to get in contact with the leading relevant
authorities as well as being responsible of the
official opening of the conference.
I had the honour to deliver the opening
conference speech where I took the opportunity
Meeting at the Planning and Reform Commission, Beijing, February 2004, for preparations of the WWEC2004
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Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
to present my vision and expectancy, that China
was my advice. While previous World Wind
position that China enjoyed within solar thermal
the number of conference participants would
would become a world leader within wind
energy similar to the internationally leading
energy with more collector area installed by
that time than the rest of the world together.
During a preparatory meeting in February
2004 for the WWEC2004 in Beijing at the
Energy Conferences had occupied exhibition
floor area of a few hundred square meters and
count some hundreds, the total exhibition
space of the Beijing International Conference
Center of 4.000 sqm was now available.
The number of conference participants
Planning and Reform Commission, promotion
coming from all parts of the world reached
to exhibit their products as possible. Based on
from Denmark, two countries with the most
measures for the conference were discussed:
How to attract as many visitors and companies
the experiences from already well-developed
wind energy countries, my recommendation
to the Chinese authorities was to announce
plans of launching an officially guaranteed
tariff system. Considering the potential of the
long-term market for clean energy technologies
in China, the relevant international,
industrial sector would not hesitate to use
the opportunity to present their products at
the WWEC exhibition to secure their share
in an emerging market, when realizing that
other manufacturers and service companies
were already aware of. With companies in big
numbers attending, conference participants in
significant numbers could have been expected,
around 2000, including energy ministers,
Jürgen Trittin from Germany and Svend Auken
advanced wind turbine technology. Among
the other international notabilities were Dr.
Hermann Scheer, member of the German
parliament and president of EUROSOLAR. At
the conference, China was officially represented
by a major delegation, including Shi Dinghuan,
President of the Chinese Renewable Energy
Society and prof. He Dexin, President of the
Chinese Wind Energy Association.
China’s Take-off
Within Wind Power
2005 can be considered as a take-off point
German Minister of Environment, Jürgen Trittin and Dr. Hermann Scheer, MdB and president of EUROSOLAR received
the World Wind Energy Award at the WWEC20004 conference ceremony, Beijing 2004 (left); Preben Maegaard with Prof. He
Dexin, President of the Chinese Wind Energy Association (right)
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Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
for modern wind energy in China. Within the
capacity additions of both solar PV and wind
In 2010, China became the country with the
power capacity surpassed new fossil fuel
following five years, a historic change occurred
to the wind power development in the country.
largest annual newly-added installed capacity
in the world and the largest manufacturing
capacity of any country. In 2013, the installed
wind power capacity of China reached 16
GW. The accumulated wind power capacity
of China reached 91 GW, and the wind power
generation of China reached 135 TWh. This
made wind power the third biggest source of
supply in China in the wake of thermal power
and hydropower. Adding of new capacity has
continued; in 2014, China installed 23 GW,
almost 50% more than the proceeding year and
provides a tremendous infrastructural effort
and challenge. China has become the country
with the largest investments in wind energy in
the world, as a global champion of wind power
has contributed significantly to the historical
turning point of the renewables by the second
decade of the century.
China played a special role in the global
change to the renewables as new renewable
capacity installations in the Non-OECD countries
exceeded deployment within the OECD, for
the first time in 2013. China’s increasing new
made the difference as in 2013, according
to REN21, for the first time new renewable
and atomic energy accumulated additions in
China. Considering the Chinese government’s
commitment to implement its wind resources,
the installed capacity could grow to more than
217 GW in 2020 and very likely 500 GW by 2030.
The Beginnings of
the Development of
Wind Power
During my annual visits to China since
2004, it has become my impression, that China
in several ways pursues a development within
wind energy that is comparable to the Danish
way of introducing modern wind energy. In
1980, Denmark began to implement wind power
at a commercial level. By 2015, wind power in
Denmark accounted for over 40% of its total
electric power consumption of 36 TWh, which
is more than the 33% share planned by the
government. The percentage is calculated to reach
50% by 2020, however, it is likely that it will be
significantly higher. The former minister of energy,
announced a four times increase of the present
Delegation from Shanghai on the visit to Folkecenter for Renewable Energy, Denmark, in 2005 to discuss transfer
of wind energy technology (left); Preben Maegaard, Prof. Gu Weidong and Anna Krenz at the presentation of the
book “Wind Power for the World” at the 5th World Non-Grid-Connected Power Conference, Beijing 2013 (right)
26
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
XEMC WIND representatives at the Folkecenter, signing agreement for cooperation for the exchange of technology (left);
Preben Maegaard and Anil Kane visiting Goldwind Factory, Beijing, China (right)
5 GW of wind power to 20 GW. This means that
modern industry.
electricity. In case that this promising development
power took a few centuries ago. The pioneering
of intermittent power systems will be achieved
years. With progressive legislation, Germany
wind power can be expected within a decade or so
to cover much more than the present demand for
materializes, new valuable experiences and
knowledge within management of very big shares
which other countries, not least China, will benefit
from as well.
When searching for the roots of the
story, the focus points especially to the role of
Denmark. Here, the first commercial, reliable
and affordable wind turbines appeared as the
people’s response to the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Denmark relied almost 100% on imported oil
for heating, electricity and mobility. A paradigm
shift within the supply of energy was absolutely
necessary. Fortunately, many people had
visions and lust to design and manufacture the
The proliferation of contemporary wind
country was Denmark with its absolute
dominance from 1975 and the following 15
since 1990 demonstrated that political visions
and will, more than good wind resources, soon
made Europe’s largest economy the champion
of wind energy; and finally China, that in 2005
from a quite low level with a concentrated
effort entered the arena and just five years later
could celebrate its role as the global No. 1, both
in terms of installed and manufacturing wind
power capacity. China has shown a direction.
There are numerous other countries that still
can use it as a role model.
Ten years later, in 2005, China joined
perfect windmill. Thus, it is a long cavalcade of
the wind energy frontrunners. By opening
through the trial-and-error method and
intentionally avoided mistakes that had delayed
developers, inventors and manufacturers who
each gave their bigger or smaller contributions
countless concepts to the bottom-up process
that took its beginning in 1975 and in the
course of five to eight years, became a real
the door for the best available technology, the
nation with the largest population in the world
and derailed the industrialisation within wind
energy in several other countries. Chinese
leaders from the outset focused on what was
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Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
already industrial standard within design and
inverter, control system and tower were all
search for the ideal wind power concept, built
international companies disappeared from
wind energy engineering while other countries
also with a strong industrial basis continued to
exotic prototypes and failed.
China soon after 2005 gave priority to
have its own industry and complete supply
chain and consequently got numerous
suppliers of wind turbines. Twenty-two foreign
manufacturers settled in China and dominated
the market with a share of 82%. The balance of
18% was divided among a number of domestic
manufacturers some of which had made joint
ventures with foreign partners. On the Chinese
Top-10 list international companies were
numbers one to five in terms of market share
while a domestic manufacturer became number
six. The biggest windmill was of 850 kW and
soon followed by a 1.5 MW well proven design,
the next step of development.
Since the China Renewable Energy Law
was implemented in 2005, domestic wind farm
development and construction grew rapidly
resulting in enormous growth rates of wind
power equipment manufacturing industry.
Wind turbines of 1.5 MW capacity became the
standard size and accounted for 75%, while
a new generation of 2 MW turbines were
introduced and represented 15% of the wind
power market in 2011. Following the trend at
the international market some of the Chinese
manufacturers launched direct-drive wind
rate reached more than 90%. Consequently,
the list of the most produced wind turbines
in China. In 2011, the Top-5 wind power
manufacturers on the domestic market were
Goldwind, Sinovel, United Power, Ming Yang
and Dongfeng. Among them Sinovel, Goldwind,
United Power and Ming Yang had climbed into
the world Top-10 list.
Growing Big
Since 2011, a consolidation process took
place. Out of the more than 50 manufacturers
that offered wind turbines of 1 MW or bigger,
10 major manufacturers emerged supplying 2.0
MW to 3.6 MW advanced wind turbine systems.
Following the trend in other leading wind
industry countries, Chinese manufacturers
moved into the 5 MW class especially for the
first offshore wind farms, that China entered
earlier than many other countries and with
equipment of own origin. The offshore sector
seems to be the driving factor in the continuous
up-scaling of the wind turbines. In Denmark
the first 8 MW wind turbine with a rotor size of
164 m was installed for testing in 2014 which in
itself inspires other manufacturers to climb one
step up and develop similar or even larger wind
turbines in an apparently never ending effort.
Following trends towards large-
turbines that accounted for 25% of the market.
capacity wind turbines, basic research
effort a completely new industry emerged that
to develop advanced large turbines based on
During a five years period and a concerted
made China the absolute leader both in terms
of manufacturing and installed wind power
capacity. The main wind turbine components
such as blades, hub, gearbox, generator,
28
produced domestically. Local production
should be strengthened to master the design
methodologies and technology advances needed
China’s wind farm characteristics. Before 2020,
5 MW wind turbines will be commercially
deployed and prototype 5 MW to 10 MW
offshore systems will materialize. Conceptual
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
design and key technology development will
to the fossil fuels, coal, oil and natural gas, that
to be completed for super-large (deep water)
TWh. With a theoretical calculation based
be completed for offshore turbines of 10 MW
or larger. Prototype certification is expected
offshore systems (10 MW or larger). In China
some manufacturers and research institutes
already have initiated R&D programs for 10 MW
systems, prototypes of which will be available
around 2020. This indicates that China belongs
to the wind energy league with the will and
ability to be among the absolute global leaders
in terms of size and technological innovation
within a young field of technology.
In the book, “Wind Power for the World”,
published in 2013, professor He Dexin,
president of the World Wind Association and
the Chinese Wind Energy Association, writes,
that between 2030 and 2050, wind power,
power systems and energy storage technologies
in China will further expand the scale, with coordinated development of land-based, near
offshore and far offshore projects. About 30 GW
of capacity will be added annually, accounting
for about half of newly installed capacity. By
2050, installed capacity could reach 1 TW, about
26% of total power capacity. Wind power will
meet 17% of national electricity consumption
in 2010 delivered 14 000 TWh of the world
total electric power demand of around 20 000
on a 40-year transitional period of the total
substitution of fossil fuels with solar and wind
energy, I let 4 000 TWh/y come from solar
energy and 10 000 TWh/y from wind.
In terms of wind power, each GW installed
capacity will have a yearly output of around
2 TWh, or half of conventional fossil fuel
power generation relative to the capacity.
Consequently, to replace 10 000 TWh of fossil
fuel power production, 5 000 GW capacity of
wind turbines will be required. As one GW is
the equivalent of 500 wind turbine seach of
2 MW, there will have to be installed 500 x 5
000 GW = 2 500 000 wind turbines with an
average size of 2 MW. When manufactured
over a 40-years period, about 60 000 wind
turbines, as an average, will be needed every
year. Considering that a wind turbine has a
life time of around 20 years, repowering in the
future alone will add a similar number to be
manufactured every year.
Furthermore, in the coming decades,
and become a major power supply, with a wide
the global demand for generating capacity
Projecting Wind
Power
in 2012 to around 7 000 GW conventional
range of industrial applications.
On this background I attempt to make
a view into the future with some visions
and projections how the global wind energy
sector may evolve during the coming decades,
realizing the uncertainties that are inherent in
such calculations. Seen over a 40-years period,
solar and wind power are realistic substitutes
will increase as well with around 100 GW
new capacity per year – from 5 500 GW
power generation capacity by 2030. The
manufacturing capacity in such a scenario has
to be lifted to the size of order of 150 000 wind
turbines of 2 MW equivalents or 300 GW per
year. There is a longway to go for the world
wind industry to achieve an industrial output of
this quantity considering that in the record year
2014, the wind industry supplied 25 000 units
(50 GW) of 2 MW wind turbine equivalents.
The growth potential over the coming decades
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Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
Preben Maegaard speaking at the 12th China Beijing International High-Tech Expo, 2009 (left); Presentation at the Renewable
Energy Grid Integration China Conference in Shanghai, 2011 (right)
thus is by a factor six more than in the 2014
reference year.
When related to the looming climate crisis
and the dwindling fossil fuels, it is necessary to
be sober when aiming for the above mentioned
production levels for wind turbines, which,
not withstanding the size of growth in the
sector, still needs several decades to replace
the current fossil fuel electricity generation.
In addition to meeting existing consumption
levels, capacity will have to greatly expand,
especially in the developing countries which
are currently strongly underserved.
Further growth within wind power
manufacturing will have involvement in many
industries.
Already at the beginning of the century,
the German wind turbine industry consumed
more steel than the shipyards in Germany.
After the automotive industry, it was the
second largest consumer of steel. With strong
growth as outlined, the wind energy industry
is capable of evolving to become the world's
largest consumer of steel and many other
30
commodities. This would be a strong stimulus
for the world economy and employment of
some million people. Being a key industry, it
will create increased activities in many other
industrial sectors as well.
Fluctuating Power –
Future Challenges
The various renewable forms of energy
(solar, wind, biomass, etc.) can provide an
alternative to fossil fuels when they are used
in combination with one another. None of
the renewable energy forms are capable of
covering the need for electricity, heat and
transportation if they are used alone. There
must be, however, a multiform effort involving
many kinds of supply systems, energy storage
and saving mechanisms, as well as appropriate
user-management strategies.
In areas with high shares of wind or solar
availability, these energies will more and more
be seen as a base load that periodically covers
the supply of power of 100% and often more.
Overall, a picture of power systems of the
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
future emerges as a complex combination of
perspective, different storage technologies
and energy storage at all levels, and with all
hours, and even to days or weeks. As seasonal
on-site, mini-grid, and centralized grid levels,
with renewables and natural gas generation
levels coordinated and interacting, according
to a range of requirements for cost, reliability,
flexibility, and service. Future power systems
will need to handle flexibility on the demand
side as well as on the supply side while
maintaining security and reliability in order to
compensate for periods of low wind output as
well as production peaks.
Some regions and even countries already
have relatively high shares of fluctuating power
supply. During periods of low peak power
demand and high wind speeds, wind power can
currently fully cover the national consumption
of electricity; at the local level, the share of wind
power may even be 400% of actual consumption.
Interregional compensation with strong power
line connections to neighbouring countries
plays an important role for upregulation and
downregulation, often at extremely low spot
market prices. It may be a short-term solution,
as the present importers of excess power most
likely in the future will be less interested in
buying power as the deployment of fluctuating
forms of renewable energy will only increase in
neighbouring countries as well. The reality is that
new outlets for periodical overcapacities will be
required locally.
Stronger two-way cross-border
interconnections to transfer renewable power
generated in one country to neighbouring
countries are increasing, not least in North
Western Europe. However, with increased
simultaneous amounts of fluctuating power
from solar and wind, countries in the same
region will try to export their excess power
to each other’s systems. From a grid stability
are suited for different balancing time frames,
ranging from seconds to minutes, minutes to
storage from summer to winter or from windy
to calm seasons, huge hot water ponds up to
90°C are emerging in Denmark, a country with
high share of district heating.
Electricity storage will be an essential
part of the integrated systems that see power
supply, mobility, heating and cooling as a whole
together with existing possibilities such as
demand-side management. These systems
should be affordable, sustainable and efficient.
By 2015, there exist many different electricity
storage systems, but only a few are functional
and commercially available. Moreover, these
technologies need to be compared by their
investment volume, their losses and their
potential for centralized and decentralized
applications. The storage solutions have to be
viewed by their limits, environmental effects,
geographical requirements, investment,
complexity and efficiency. Furthermore, storage
technologies have to be optimized in terms
of size and capacity, responding time and
flexibility, as well as their cost-effectiveness.
Hydropower is a traditional form of large-
scale energy storage on power grids, in the
form of both conventional and pumped hydro.
Conventional hydropower plants are routinely
used to ramp and cycle. For other types of
conventional power plants, however, ramping
and cycling on a daily or hourly basis can reduce
equipment lifetime, cause higher maintenance
costs and stability of emissions equipment.
Postponing combustion of biomass (straw,
wood chips, pellets) can be considered as a
cheap and reliable season-to-season storage
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Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
solution where solar and wind energy is
the primary sources of supply while stored
biomass is the primary back-up fuel. Because
biomass functions as an ideal long-term storage
new advanced concepts in various countries,
including China.
In this process, professor GuWeidong,
solution, and due to its limited availability, it is
Nanjing University, has conducted a Chinese
efficiencies of 85% or more. Their primary
development model. He proposes that a smart
necessary that it be reserved for combustion
in combined heat and power stations with
function is for balancing by upregulation
when solar and wind energy cannot cover the
demand loads.
The problems associated to this have
gradually emerged along with the increase of the
percentage of wind power in the total electric
power consumption. In Denmark, comprehensive
projects and programs for the development of
new applications of renewable energy have been
launched. Also the Chinese government has made
efforts and attempts in the development process
of wind power to match with the new situation
national “973” research program and put
forward the pioneering non-grid-connected
grid system based on the non-grid-connected
coordinated power supply of multiple and new
energy resources should be set up. The theory
mentioned has sparked a new field for the
worldwide multiple application of large-scale
wind and solar power for the manufacturing of
basic industrial products and services for which
there will a big demand in a post-fossil-fuel age
as well. These research fields are unprecedented
worldwide and open up for new ways of
integrating huge quantities of excess power.
In 2005, I first had the theory presented
as wind energy and other new energy resources
in combination with the ambitious Dongtai
This is bringing big challenges to the utilization
000 MW wind energy capacity in the shallow
are generally by nature unstable, thus leading to
significant fluctuations of their electric output.
of electric power, which calls for innovation and
Green City project in the Jiangsu Province also
pioneered by professor Gu. It consists of 100
waters of the Yellow Sea, which set new
Preben Maegaard and Prof. Gu Weidong, at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Abu Dhabi (left); Visit to the
Institute of Macro Economics, Nanjing University (right)
32
Inside WWEA
Special Issue 2015
dimensions for viewing the prospects of wind
energy and its application within traditional
energy intensive industrial sectors.
At several international conferences, at
IRENA, and at various workshops the theory has
been presented as China’s contribution to bring
answers to an emerging concern especially in the
utility sectors worldwide associated with the rising
amounts of fluctuating power. As Denmark with
its more than 40% wind energy is facing special
excess power problems, I have at various occasions
referred to the non-grid-connected concept. Thus,
the achievements have been playing an important
role for bringing new answers to the energy
development of China and the world at large.
Examples of innovative use of solar and
wind energy include: Large-scale non-grid-
connected wind-power seawater desalination;
Large-scale direct wind-power hydrogen and
oxygen production; Non-ferrous metallurgical
industry; Wind/methane power-to-gas
integration; Wind/hydrogen reduction iron-
making. This new system succeeds in making
the power grids more flexible and intelligent,
i.e. transforming high-energy-consuming
industries into new intelligent loads which can
carry out peak regulation and balancing for
power-grid facilities. While only a limited share
of electricity production is fed into national
grid, the excess power will be used as a primary
energy source for new industrial applications
that will need energy back up from storable
energy forms like natural gas and biomass.
With such principles as well as the
building of full-scale demonstration projects,
China has taken leadership and demonstrated
to the rest of the world its will and ability
to deploy the vast potential of solar and
wind energy in a wide variety of practical
applications. It should be seen as part of the
take-off of a historical transition that is still at
its early stage and within the coming decades
will lead to a reformation of basic energy
structures in our societies that rely on big
amounts of affordable and environmentally
beneficial energy solutions.
Looking Forward
Renewable energies will have the key
role in the global push toward a CO2-neutral
future of energy production. Due to the in-
principle unlimited potential of solar and wind
resources, in comparison to the current global
energy regime, they can be seen as the primary
source of supply for meeting the future demand
for electricity, heating and mobility, irrespective
of their intermittent character.
China has become a large wind power
equipment manufacturing country and the
country with most wind power installed
capacity in the world. Wind power generation
has got a substantial place in China's
electric power structure which will increase
substantially more in the decades to come like it
will be the case at the global level as well where
the wind power will play a more and more
important role in the increasing energy supply,
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, driving
economic growth, increasing employment and
building harmonious societies.
I go fully along with professor He Dexin’s
closing remarks in his chapter in the book, Wind
Power for the World: Wind is our wealth given
by nature. We should cherish it and make good
use of it. There are no national boundaries in
wind energy utilisation, therefore, as a member
of the big family of the world, China will surely
exert all the strength and do a good job to leave
our children a green, clean earth in the future.
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Special Issue 2015
African Rural Electrification:
A Private Sector Perspective
on Investment Conditions
By Clément Gaudin, WWEA, with additional contributions from Stefan Gsänger,
Nopenyo Dabla, and Christian Tigges.
Africa has abundant renewable energy
resources along with (in some countries)
access to energy in Africa, as it is among the
the population has no access to modern energy
when taking into account externalities such as
major fossil resources, yet the continent is
experiencing an energy crisis, as a large share of
services. Access to energy is exceedingly limited,
especially in rural areas. This remains a major
barrier to economic development, both social
lowest cost renewable energy solutions available,
and is competitive with fossil fuels (especially
climate change).
In many countries hydropower is often
and political. Although energy resources are not
the main electricity source, and according to
energies to widely satisfy the demand of the
hydropower potential in Africa has not been
distributed evenly throughout the continent,
there is a huge potential for various renewable
African population (see map below). The wind
across the continent, the watersheds in Central
Africa, the fault of the Rift Valley in West Africa,
and the sunshine enjoyed continentally, offer
wind, hydro, geothermal and solar energy
sources that are unparalleled globally. Africa
is also the fastest growing region in the world
economically:12 out of the 20 fastest growing
economies in the world are in Africa, and it is
expected that additional economic power will
come through improved access to energy.
34
Wind power has a great role to play in the
the International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA),90% to 95% of the total technical
exploited. The situation is similar for solar,
which has by far the largest renewable resource
potential in Africa. The average annual solar
radiation in Africa ranges between 5 and 7 kWh /
m², similar to the irradiation found in the Arabian
Peninsula, northern Australia, and northern
Chile. Yet despite of its high solar irradiation,
Africa contributes only a small part of the global
PV production capacity.
To overcome the energy crisis in Africa,
Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
Figure 1: Map of
identified renewable
energy potential in
Africa, made by IRENA
Table 1: list of respondents to the survey
Companies
Respondents
STG International
Amy Mueller / Director
Countries / regions of activity
Lesotho
INENSUS
NicoPeterschmidt / CEO
Senegal
Niger Sahel Energie
Sunny Akuopha
Mali
Touba Solar Rama
General Manager
Senegal
Alternative Energy
Jean Jacques Cobinah / General
Manager
Ivory Coast
Énergie Tilgaz Mali
CEO
Mali
Rayon Vert
Chief Executive
Senegal
TERRA Technologies
Chief Executive
Senegal
Sahel EnergieSolaire
Amadou Makane Balla Coulibaly /
Chief Executive
Senegal
GIZ / Peracod
Mme Mireille Ehemba, Project
Manager in Rural Electrification
Senegal
KAMA - SA
Kibily Demba Doumbia / Technical
Manager
Mali
Renewable Energy Corporation
Guenter Boehm / CEO
Liberia
Habitat Cohérent et Solution
Énergétique (HACSE)
Etienne Sauvage / International
Technical Expert
West Africa
Eco-solaris
Martin Lambert / General Manager
Benin
GERES
Benjamin Paillière
Mali, Senegal, Benin
CDS Mauritanie
Ould Edou Lebatt / General Manager
Mauritania
SSD Koraye
Abdoulaye Keita / General Manager
Mali
KayerSarl
Assan Dieng / Chief Executive
Senegal
Access Sarl
Diarra Mahamadou Karamoko /
Executive
Mali
EgeteerSolaire
Condy Dnaw / General Manager
Senegal
Vergnet
Ludovic Dehondt / Manager
Africa
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Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
renewable energy has a great role to play. That
to the questionnaire have implemented more
demand and resource availability. Currently, the
Findings & Discussion
is why today there is a need for investment from
the private sector to bridge the gap between
investment trend is beginning to change. The
African renewable energy market is becoming
increasingly attractive for private investors.
Notably in South Africa, Morocco, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, many investment
opportunities in renewable energy are emerging.
It is in this context that the World Wind
Energy Association decided to conduct a study
on the market for rural electrification through
renewable energies in Western Africa. The
association set up a study analysing the private
sector, households, and public institutions. This
analysis of the private sector involveda survey
of companies in Africa,primarily in Mali and
Senegal.
One of the main objectives of this survey is
to understand the challenges and opportunities
than 1200 energy projects in 12 countries.
Private sector perspective:
The survey results showthatthe most
widely used technology is solar and that only
threecompanies are using wind, all of which are
in Senegal, a region with a large coastal area.
Some of the interviewed respondents indicated
that it is difficult to find enough windin noncoastal areas.However, it may be possible to
find wind energy potential in inland regions.
Mali for instance, where, in the Sahelian and
Saharan zones, the annual average wind speed is
estimated at 3 m/s to 7 m/s. 1
The results reveal that rural electrification
projects are commonly driven by three main
that renewable energy companies encounter
when they run decentralized rural electrification
projects in developing countries. Another
important objective is to show the positive effects
of rural electrification from the private sector
point of view.
Figure 2: Type of renewable
energy used by selected operators
Responses provided by surveyed companies
show an overview of the private sector in Africa.
Responses also help to clarify the opportunities
and barriers for a company that has activities
in the region. The qualitative and quantitative
responses of this study were analysed in order to
highlight the most important findings. In total, 13
companies answered our questionnaire and 10
were interviewed. The companies that answered
Figure 3: Share of respondents
that have generated profit
without any international grants/
donations or governmental aid
1. AFDB & Climate Investment Funds (2015), Mali country profile, Renewable Energy in Africa, http://www.afdb.org/
fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/Profil_ER_Mal_Web_light.pdf.
36
Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
reasons (with some overlap): economic (70%),
social reasons (64%) and energy access (64%).
Thusrural electrification projects are mostly
initiated by economic opportunity. Although not
all of the projects may be profitable, 40% of the
respondents in Mali and Senegal have reported
that they developed profitable projects without
any international subsidies or governmental
aid. Concluded from the data, the result is that
50% of the respondents have generated profit by
Figure 4: Principal economic activities, in
villages electrified by respondents
running these projects in Africa.
in the harvest season than in other periods. In
several remaining problems that make profit
Presently some successful business models
For the private sector, there are still
complicated. According to respondents from
Mali, Senegal and Ivory Coast, reliability of
payment is the biggest barrier: 100% of the
respondents said it has been a challenge.Mali
for instance, faces extreme poverty which
affects more than two-thirds of its population:
this context, the entrepreneurs have to find an
adapted offer to make their projects profitable.
do exist, but there is not one business model
that can be applied for all rural electrification
projects. However, more and more successful
business models are appearing.
For one company we interviewed,
72% of Malians livewith less than $2 US a
their business model relied ona loan system
where the incidence of poverty reaches73%, as
company, but only if the kits could develop
day, and half of them live on less than $1 US a
day. Furthermore, poverty is essentially rural,
2
opposed to 20% in urban areas. The average
monthly income of an inhabitant from ruralMali
is 29,640 FCFA (45 €). 3With a large part of the
economic activity based on agriculture (see figure
4), the rural population has also unpredictable
incomes. Unpredictability combined with low
incomes, leaves rural people with low purchasing
power. The economic situation in Mali is not
isolated and similar situations can be found
throughout West Africa.
4
With agricultural seasonal incomes, rural
people might be more willing and able to pay
for villagers. Individual kits were sold and
financed by a credit facility provided by the
users’ activities (such as handicrafts). In this
system, userscould repay the loan from the
benefits of their new activities. For another
company in Senegal, which has mostly farmers
as a clientele, the problem was that farmers
couldn’t pay monthly. In this case they were
paying with a credit facility, but according
to the entrepreneur, this system might be
risky if farmers were to accumulate too many
loans. In the context of irregular income,
maintaining flexibility in the payment schedule
and aligning payments with agricultural
crops could be an option to prevent payment
2. CollectifsStratégiesAlimentaires (2011), Rapport pays: Mali, http://www.csa-be.org/IMG/pdf_Rapport_Mali_FINAL.pdf.
3. FRES (2013), Rapport Annuel, http://www.fres.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2013_FR_FRES_jaarverslag.pdf.
4. Assemblée Nationale Française (2015), La stabilité et le développement de l’Afrique francophone, http://www.assembleenationale.fr/14/rap-info/i2746.asp#P16_342.
37
Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
defaults. For example, the payment could be
Around 90% of the companies surveyed
made the day of the market with a higher price
have their services paid directly by the
flexibility, but only a properly conducted study
organizations in development and installation
during the harvest season. Using a prepaid
card might also be a solution because of its
would allow us to consider which solution is
the more suitable. 5Alternately, a report by
Peracod, a program created by the Senegalese
government, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale ZusammenarbeitGmbH (GIZ)
and other international development agencies,
documents successful business models for
profitable rural electrification projects in
6
Senegal. Although older (2006), this report
could still prove useful for current business
models.
villagers (the end users).The same companies
are supported by governments or international
of the associated infrastructure. This shows
that although a majority of the villages can
pay for the service, they cannot pay for
the installation investment. Consequently,
companies, villagers or communities need
to find other sources of finance, like banks,
private investors etc. However, for the West
African entrepreneurs, finance from national
banks is very difficult to find, and this is
considered to be a barrier by 90% of the
respondents. During the establishing of a
Table 2: Evaluated operational challenges
Evaluation of challenges during the exercise of the activity
Did you perceive these following factors as challenges during the exercise of your activities?
Yes
No
Taxation
70%
30%
Availability of qualified personal
75%
25%
Competitive situation
14%
86%
Social factors (culture, organization in the villages…)
44%
56%
Quality of the equipment
56%
44%
Reliability of payment
100%
0%
The importation of goods
78%
22%
Table 3: Evaluated structural barriers
Evaluation of barriers during the establishing of the project
Did you perceive these following factors as barriers during the establishing of your projects?
Yes
No
Supporting policies in general
88%
12%
Administrative procedures (bureaucracy in terms of immigration, company’s creation...)
25%
75%
Evaluation of costs
60%
40%
Finance from national public institutions
50%
50%
Finance from international public institutions
50%
50%
Finance from the national banks
89%
11%
Finance from the international banks
50%
50%
Available market information
60%
40%
5. Julie Bobée (2010), L'électrification rurale par l'énergie solaire. Etude de cas au Bénin,http://www.memoireonline.
com/11/10/4073/Lelectrification-rurale-par-lenergie-solaire-Etude-de-cas-au-Benin.html.
6. Peracod (2006), Modèle d’électrification rurale pour localités de moins de 500 habitants au Sénégal, http://www.peracod.
sn/IMG/pdf/modele_electrification_des_localites_de_500hab.pdf.
38
Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
project, the access to finance from private
somewhat different. It is complicated to obtain
What are the barriers to profitable projects?
takes excessive time. Moreover, 88% of the
investors or banks is very limited because they
need more guarantee.
Tables 1 and 2 present the findings of two
questions intending to identify the barriers
during the activity and establishment of the
project. The factors by themselves where
not treated as a “barrier” or a “challenge”,
since the questions were structured in a
neutral tone it was solely dependenton the
respondents’ answers. Taxation, for instance,
has been identified as a challenge by 70% of
the respondents.
Barriers identification
As noted above, reliability of payment is a
major obstacle to profitable projects, but there
this exemption, as you need to pass by the
ministry and obtain a letter of exemption which
entrepreneurs interrogated in Mali and Senegal
said that supporting policies in general remain a
barrier for the establishing of a project.
Another important obstacleis the
importation of goods; for Mali and Senegal,
almost 80% of the respondents said it represents
a barrier. Guenter Boehm, an entrepreneur in
Liberia, West Africa, described in an interview
that importation of goods requires time mainly
because of customs. According to him, the
customs are time consuming and sometimes non
transparent. The seriousness of this statement
can be confirmed by the map of Borderless
below, which shows a complex road governance
situation in ECOWAS.
Availability of qualified personal has also
areother barriers as well.Again, taxation has been
been described as a challenge by 75% of the
has been a barrier. However, the government
provide technical training for villagers.
described as an obstacle for profitability. In Mali,
50% of the respondents reported that taxation
is making an effort on this point. There exists
a decree on suspension of the value added tax
respondents. For Mali and Senegal, nearly 65%
of the respondents reported that they had to
On the other hand, competitive situations
(VAT) and duties on imported renewable energy
were not reported as a barrier by 86% of
promoting the import of solar panels, solar
competition leaves more freedom in the market.
equipment. It abolishes these taxes for five
years starting from September 2009, thereby
lamps and other RE equipment. The decree was
renewed – and improved – in early 2014, for the
the respondents. This in fact suggests a good
opportunity for many entrepreneurs as low
Indeed, several barriers remain and the
next five years to come.
risk of investing in rural electrification is still
reported that taxation has been a barrier. Yet as
the survey also illustrated the financial riskfor
In Senegal, 83% of the respondents
in Mali there existsa legal framework, created to
facilitate the importation of renewable energy
products. Material is reportedly "tax-free" but
according to Condy Ndaw and Assane Dieng,
two Senegalese entrepreneurs, the reality is
high for the moment, as there is no guarantee
on return of investment. The respondents from
rural electrification projects, which 70% of
the respondents even found strong or very
strong. A large portion (77%) indicated that
their financial performance was worse than
what they had expected. However, capital and
39
Small Wind and off Grid
Figure 5: Financial
performances of
selected operators
Figure 6: Political
risk evaluated by
respondents
Figure 7: Financial
risk evaluated by
respondents
Figure 8: Map of
road governance
in ECOWAS’
countries in 2013
40
Special Issue 2015
Small Wind and off Grid
Special Issue 2015
operational expenses were never higher than
respondents (from Mali and Senegal) and the
expected, technical performances were generally
electricity has a substantial positive effect on the
30% off from the original expectations.Also, if
financial performances were mostly worse than
as or better than expected. Furthermore, 70% of
the respondents described political risk as rather
weak in Mali and Senegal.
Positive effects of rural electrification from
the private sector perspective
The figure below presents the findings
concerning the positive effects from rural
electrification by renewable energies. For this
question, the respondents rated each of the following
categories on a scale of one to five: one meaning the
category had no positive effect, and five meaning the
category had the best possible positive effect.
This figure shows the results of 11
average of their answers. For instance, according
to the average response, the availability of
increase of the existent economic activity.
At the end, 91% of the respondents thought
that the projects were worth pursuing.
Conclusion
There is still a high perceived financial
risk for investment in rural electrification based
on renewable energy in West Africa. In order
to decrease the risk for an entrepreneur or
an investor, solutions must be found. Several
respondents pointed out the necessity of
improvement in the legal frameworks and
incentive policies. The following points are a nonexhaustive list of ideas that may help to increase
Figure 9: Qualitative
measurement
of the positive
effects brought by
electricity in rural
villages
Figure 10:
Proportion of
respondents who
thought their
projects were worth
pursuing
41
Small Wind and off Grid
the attractiveness and thus the development of RE
in the developing world:
Government:
• Creation of facilities and favourable
policies for new entrepreneurs in RE:
- Remove taxes like VAT and importation
Special Issue 2015
create a business model for rural electrification
projects in Mali, for villages from more than 500
inhabitants.
• Establish capacity building programmes
to educate local communities, entrepreneurs,
government officials and the national banks on
hybrid power systems.
taxes at the beginning of the activity (first
Private sector:
following 5 years).
NGOs and development agencies, a
5 years) and then decrease them with time
(example: reduce VAT consecutively for the
- Make the exemption of taxes easy to
obtain and guarantee its implementation.
- Create a feed-in tariff, but “easy” to obtain.
- Creation of a certification system to
improve material quality and have a fair
competitive situation.
Government / other international institutions:
• Give more resources to national rural
electrification agencies in orderto give them
• The private sector should organize,with
pressure group in order to submit concrete
recommendations to the government about
favourable policies for RE, at a regional
(eg.,ECOWAS) or national level, which can be
supported by international organisations.
• Make the technology affordable to
villagers through a credit system, as the
investment is a problem. This system would
require a reliable risk analysis and a plan of the
future economic growth.
• To follow the development of new
more capacity to create policies and promote
economic activities and the increasing of the
models for rural electrification projects, as has
place is important to assure credibility. But this
renewable energies.
• Establish a detailed study on business
been done by Peracod in 2006. For instance,
demand.
• For a company, to maintain the systems in
charge has to be transferred on to the price.
AFDB & Climate Investment Funds (2015), Mali country profile, Renewable Energy in Africa, http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/
Documents/Generic-Documents/Profil_ER_Mal_Web_light.pdf.
Reference
CollectifsStratégiesAlimentaires (2011), Rapport pays: Mali, http://www.csa-be.org/IMG/pdf_Rapport_Mali_FINAL.pdf.
FRES (2013), Rapport Annuel,http://www.fres.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2013_FR_FRES_jaarverslag.pdf.
Assemblée NationaleFrançaise (2015), La stabilitéet le développement de l’Afrique francophone, http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14/
rap-info/i2746.asp#P16_342.
Atlas NEPAD (may 2013), Une nouvelle ruralitéémergente,http://issuu.com/cirad/docs/atlas_nepad_version_fran__aise_mai_.
Julie Bobée (2010), L'électrificationruraleparl'énergiesolaire. Etude de cas au Bénin,http://www.memoireonline.com/11/10/4073/
Lelectrification-rurale-par-lenergie-solaire-Etude-de-cas-au-Benin.html.
Peracod (2006), Modèled’électrificationrurale pour localités de moins de 500 habitants au Sénégal, http://www.peracod.sn/IMG/pdf/
modele_electrification_des_localites_de_500hab.pdf.
IRENA (2014), L’Afrique et les énergies renouvelables,https://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/afrique_énergies_
renouvelables.pdf.
42
ISSUE 2 June 2015
Regional Focus
43
Regional Focus
44
ISSUE 2 June 2015
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