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From The Editor
Dear Members and Friends of WWEA,
This edition of the WWEA Quarterly Bulletin is mainly dedicated to the 13th World Wind Energy
Conference in Shanghai. The WWEC2014 turned out very successfully, with delegates from all parts of the
world presenting the global status of wind power and discussing key issues, in particular related to the main
theme “Distributed Wind Power”.
Several articles in this bulletin were first presented at WWEC2014 and reflect the inspiring spirit during
the meeting of the global wind community, including reports from very different countries such as Denmark,
South Africa, Kenya and Germany. We are also including the WWEC2014 Resolution, which reflects the main
topics, statements, recommendations and conclusions made during the event.
Another article refers to current activities WWEA has been doing in Pakistan: We have done a
comprehensive survey among wind energy investors in that country and presented the findings during a
high-level conference in Islamabad in June. The main conclusions of this study and the event will serve as a
basis for recommendations on how Pakistan can improve its framework for wind power investment. Some
of the conclusions – especially those related to finance – will also be discussed on the international level
with international organizations such as UNFCCC, the Green Climate Fund, and IRENA, in order to identify
ways these organizations and the world community can support countries like Pakistan in setting up financial
mechanisms to develop a safe, affordable, and climate friendly energy supply.
Finally, you will also find a very inspiring article from French expert Bernard Chabot who explains how
new technological developments are about to lead to a “silent wind power revolution”.
With best wishes
Stefan Gsänger
Secretary General of WWEA
1
Contents
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Published by
World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
Produced by
Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA)
Editorial Committee
Editor-in-Chief: Stefan Gsänger
Associate Editor-in-Chief: Shi Pengfei
Paul Gipe
Jami Hossain
Editors: Martina Bachvarova Shane Mulligan
Yu Guiyong
Visual Design: Jing Ying
Contact
Martina Bachvarova
[email protected]
Tel. +49-228-369 40-80
Fax +49-228-369 40-84
WWEA Head Office
Charles-de-Gaulle-Str. 5, 53113 Bonn, Germany
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.wwindea.org
Yu Guiyong
[email protected]
Tel. +86-10-5979 6665
Fax +86-10-6422 8215
CWEA Secretariat
28 N. 3rd Ring Road E., Beijing, P. R. China
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.cwea.org.cn
2
01 From the Editor
News Analysis
04 Wind Power as the Primary Solution for Pakistan’s
Power Crisis
Events
06 WWEC2014 Conference Resolution 09 World Wind Energy Award 2014
WWEC2014 Shanghai Special
12 High Shares of Distributed Energy Supply: The case
of Denmark
18 South Africa: Sun, Wave and Wind Will Replace
Koeberg Nuclear Power 26 Scaling up of Wind Energy Development Plans in
Kenya 34 Germany: The Role of Wind Energy in a
Greenhouse Gas-neutral Energy Supply
Research
39 Analysis of the “Silent Wind Power Revolution”,
and Some Proposals to Benefit from It within a
Large Scale Deployment Scenario 3
News Analysis
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Wind Power as the Primary Solution
for Pakistan’s Power Crisis
Planning Minister:
“Renewable Energy
is Energy of People”
which “no one can
monopolize”
At a conference “Scaling-up Wind
Power Deployment for Pakistan's
Sustainable Energy Future”, jointly
organized by WWEA, Alternative
Energy Development Board and
Heinrich Böll Foundation Pakistan,
100 participants from government,
business, academia and NGOs
discussed how Pakistan can progress
faster in wind power deployment in
order to address its ongoing energy
crisis.
High-level speakers included
Planning, Development and Reforms
Minister Prof Ahsan Iqbal; Mr Asjad
Imtiaz Ali, CEO of the Alternative
Energy Development Board; Dr Miftah
Ismail, CEO of the Board of Investment;
Mr Werner Liepach, Country Director
of the Asian Development Bank; Mr
Peter Felten, Deputy Ambassador
of Germany; Ms Saima Jasam, HBS
Country Director; WWEA Honorary
Vice President Air Marshall (rtd)
Shahid Hamid and WWEA Secretary
General Mr Stefan Gsänger.
All speakers highlighted the
benefits of renewable energy in general
and of wind power in particular, in
order to encounter Pakistan’s current
and severe power crisis. Wind power
especially could contribute rapidly and
Photo: Wang Zhen
4
News Analysis
ISSUE 2 June 2014
at low cost to supplying electricity to
the national grid and to reducing the
need of load shedding in the country
which currently has a shartfall of 5'000
participants discussed its conclusions
and necessary steps forward.
Four areas for action were
MW of generation capacity. Wind
identified which need to be addressed:
a least-cost option.
Many participants suggested
power could also help to electrify
thousands of villages in rural areas as
In this context, the socioeconomic
advantages of wind power were
highlighted: Minister Ahsan Iqbal
underlined that “renewable energy
is energy of people” and offers huge
benefits for local communities. He
pointed out that “no corporate entity,
no government can put monopoly on
wind".
However, in spite of a
comprehensive support scheme for
Policy and regulation, technology,
finance and socioeconomic impact.
improvements in the way wind power
policies have been deployed and
requested more clarity and better
coordination amongst different units.
Grid connection problems were often
mentioned, together with challenges in
finding banks willing to finance wind
power investment. At the same time,
many speakers underlined the huge
potentials of wind energy to empower
local communities.
Stefan Gsänger, WWEA Secretary
wind farms, the market for wind
General: “Wind power could very soon
are blocking wind power investment,
And it can also help rural and urban
turbines in Pakistan is still very small.
In order to identify the barriers that
WWEA in cooperation with HBS
commissioned a study based on a
survey amongst wind power investors
in the country. Mr Sohaib Malik,
Researcher at WWEA, presented
the main findings of the survey, and
further speakers as well as other
provide the affordable solution for
Pakistan's power supply problems.
communities to improve their living
conditions and have sufficient access to
energy. Wind power is affordable, and
wind and sun are available practically
everywhere. Hence, the future of
Pakistan must be 100 % renewable
energy.”
The whole conference has been recorded will be available on the WWEA website www.WWindEA.org
More information:
Heinrich-B ll-Stiftungen Pakistan: pk.boell.org
Alternative Energy Development Board: www.aedb.org
Global 100 % Renewable Energy Campaign: www.go100re.net
AVT Channels: avtchannels.com
5
Events
ISSUE 2 June 2014
WWEC2014 Conference Resolution
13th World Wind Energy Conference
Distributed Wind Power
Shanghai, China, 7-9 April 2014
The World Wind Energy
Association, the Chinese Wind Energy
Association, Chinese Wind Energy
Equipment Association and the China
can play to accelerate the deployment
of wind power in the world.
The Conference appreciates
National Renewable Energy Centre
the support of the governments
attending this Conference, from
the Chinese Government, the German
welcome the presence of those
500 participants from 40 countries
wind and all other renewable energy
technologies.
The Conference covered all
aspects of wind utilisation, related
policies, manufacturing, development,
operation as well as economic and
social issues, with a special focus on
the role that distributed wind power
6
and governmental as well as non-
particular the strong commitment
and important contributions of the
International Renewable Energy
Agency, IRENA, to the event.
The Conference recognizes that
governmental organisations, especially
China is currently heavily dependent
Affairs & Energy, IRENA, UNDP, the
power generation. The Conference
Federal Ministry for Economic
International Renewable Energy
Alliance, REN21, the Global100%RE
campaign, the World Future Council,
and all organisations and individuals
enhancing the Conference.
The Conference welcomes in
on fossil fuel combustion, with coal
accounting for a large portion of the
applauds the Chinese government for
having taken important steps in order
to reduce this dependence on polluting
fossil resources: China has not only
become a world leader in wind power
installations, but in the year 2013,
for the first time new investment in
Events
ISSUE 2 June 2014
renewable energy power generation
has exceeded new investment in fossil
generation.
The Conference encourages the
Governments of China, of all Asian
countries and beyond, to remove
the barriers to renewable use in the
region and develop a comprehensive
long-term strategy that includes
distributed wind power as well as local
integration of renewable energies as
In addition the Conference
community power and distributed
WWECs, to:
education, research and financial
policies and actions, some of them
having been presented at previous
1. Remove gradually all
energy subsidies and introduce the
internalisation of all externalities to
achieve a level playing field;
2. Pursue and continue
key components.
compensatory regulatory frameworks
scientifically substantiated statements
energy developments and develop and
The conference applauds the
made that a 100 % renewable energy
supply can be reached worldwide
in the foreseeable future, and it
encourages all renewable energy
stakeholders to join the Global 100%
such as sufficient and effective feed-
the Indian wind energy pioneer Dr.
Anil Kane has been awarded with the
World Wind Energy Award 2014 as
one of the pioneers of wind power in
India, Asia and worldwide.
The Conference recognises that
training and education have to be
power supply;
3. Focus on the integration of
systems also on the local and
community level, create smart grids
between the various renewable energy
solutions in order to achieve an
integrated 100 % renewable energy
supply in the foreseeable future;
4. Intensify the close cooperation
with IRENA on the implementation of
its work programme and contribute to
its further refinement;
5. Raise the political and social
key elements of a strategy that aims
awareness on all levels of society
World Small Wind Training and Testing
to obtain access to the necessary
at mainstreaming wind power and
supports the initiative to create the
Center.
7. Reduce overall costs for energy
supply by an increasing the share of
renewable energy and by a stronger
focus on least-cost decentralised
options for 100 % renewable energy;
8. Develop and expand national,
provided as part of the international
and enhance decentralised synergies
The Conference appreciates that
institutions;
incentives for integrated renewable
apply FIT2.0 policies which include
challenges and barriers on the way to a
100 % renewable energy future.
governmental, international,
regional and international financing
wind power into existing power
to work further on the remaining
energy supply in existing
in tariffs that encourage renewable
Renewable Energy Campaign which
was presented during the event and
6. Create a stronger focus on
supports the following objectives,
and in particular amongst local
communities and enable them
knowledge and technologies;
mechanisms for renewable energy,
especially making use of funds
climate change negotiations, and
ensure that the Global Green Climate
Fund gives priority to renewable
energy and community based projects;
9. Support communities
especially in developing countries in
obtaining easier access to technology
and finance;
10. Encourage all wind energy
stakeholders to participate in the next
World Wind Energy Conference, which
will be held in Jerusalem in 2015.
Shanghai, 9 April 2014
He Dexin
WWEC2014 Chairman
WWEA President
7
Events
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Welcome Address by Mr Francisco Boshell, IRENA
It is a great pleasure to be here, and I’d like start by thanking the organizers of this Conference for the invitation to
IRENA to participate in this important event.
This conference, taking place in a country with a booming wind power market, and its significant level of
participation, demonstrate that wind already is a key component of the present energy regime; that the expectations on
this energy source remain strong, giving confidence to the industry and other stakeholders.
The planet is increasingly demanding more energy, and projections indicate that this demand will rise by a third by
2035 (1). Balancing energy needs and environmental and economic sustainability concerns drives the ongoing decision
making process for the energy sector.
(1) WEO, 2012.
Wind power is one of the great success stories of renewable energy, and proves that renewables are no longer
a niche option. In 2012, the world’s total capacity of wind power generation was 282 GW with installations in 100
countries. The world growth rate of wind power in the last 15 years has matched those of very dynamic technology
sectors such as telecommunications, with rates above 20%; and despite that 2012 was a bit lower, at 19.2%, significant
growth continues to be achieved world-wide.
The latest bulletin from the WWEA and the CWEA indicates that just in China the installed capacity has reached 91
GW with the addition of 16 GW in 2013, and an annual growth rate of new installed capacity of 24.1%. It is also true that
75 per cent of the annual onshore wind market is based in only 4 regions of the world: China, India, the USA, and Europe.
Offshore wind is even more concentrated. Consequently, any regulatory uncertainty affecting one of these major markets
can have a dramatic effect upon the entire global supply chain.
IRENA can help the wind power market to diversify geographically by identifying new opportunities emerging
in other parts of the world, providing factual evidence on why wind energy makes sound economic sense, and helping
governments put in place the policies needed to attract investors.
To identify where the potential exists, IRENA recently launched the Global Atlas – this is an open-access online
platform to prospect new markets in wind and solar, and being expanded to other RE sources. To date 39 countries have
joined this effort, making it the largest initiative ever undertaken to assess global renewable energy potentials.
To spread impartial information on the economic case for exploiting wind, IRENA has undertaken a series of costing
studies based on more than 9000 projects, which recently showed that wind power, in many parts of the world with good
resources, is now competitive with conventional generation technologies even without subsidies. Recent auctions in
South America, for instance, priced wind energy lower than natural gas at below USD 5ct/kWh in Brazil.
At present, a key challenge is the integration of higher shares of variable wind power into electricity grids.
Alternatives to address this issue should be implemented, including strategies to make the electricity system flexible
including supply and demand side management, development of ancillary markets, interconnections, accurate weather
forecast, and storage systems. In this field IRENA is undertaking work on Grid Stability Assessment, a Roadmap for Grid
Integration of variable renewable energy, and Regional Grid Interconnections in our Clean Energy Corridors Initiative,
among others.
IRENA is working to make this transition towards a sustainable energy regime a near-future reality. But to make this
happen, your involvement is instrumental and essential. The topics to be discussed in the programme of this conference
are touching upon the key issues to be addressed nowadays. Therefore, we do look forward to the outcome of this event.
Thank you very much.
8
Events
ISSUE 2 June 2014
World Wind Energy Award
2014 for Dr. Anil Kane
The WWEA Board would like
to recognise Dr. Kane as one of the
pioneers of wind power in India, Asia
and worldwide.
Already in the early 1980s, when
hardly anybody understood the huge
potential of wind power, he started
working for wind and personally invested
in wind turbines by putting up the first
commercial wind farm in Gujarat. This
wind farm is still in operation without any
trouble for the last 30 years.
WWEA appreciates that Dr.
Kane has been involved in the wind
power development on the academic,
Emeritus of WWEA whose President he
organizations of Indian wind power. Dr.
over the world and advised countries
business and government side,
as an advisor to many of the key
Kane has been instrumental in forming
government policies for promoting
wind energy in India from the central
government as well as several state
governments.
Dr. Kane has also been at key
positions in various wind associations,
e.g. as former Chairman and now
Chairman Emeritus of the Indian Wind
Energy Association and as President
was from 2005-2011. In his capacity as
WWEA President, Dr. Kane travelled all
on all continents on their national
wind power strategies.
Without Dr. Kane’s personal
contributions, wind power would not
have become such a big success story
in India and in the whole world.
With the award, WWEA would
also like to encourage others to take Dr.
Kane’s commitment and achievements
as an inspiring example to follow.
9
Events
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Response by Dr.Anil Kane
“In the normal life we take good food, but if something is added in the food which makes the food
tastier and energetic, we enjoy it and the life becomes enriched. Appreciation in any form is similar to
adding something making life enriched.”
Everyone likes to be appreciated whether a child or a grownup individual. I realized the
importance of the renewable energy long ago. Out of all types of renewable energies, I found wind
energy to be more suitable for mass production on commercial base.
In absence of any Government policy for encouragement in early 80s, I decided to put up small
wind farm which would become a commercially viable venture and will become a flag bearer. I was
working in a Public Sector Unit of Gujarat Government where our job was to encourage industries to
come to Gujarat. After overcoming a terrible opposition, a project to put up a 1.5 mw wind farm was
conceived, a joint sector partner was found out, a power purchase agreement with Gujarat Electricity
Board at a bare minimum tariff was signed, and a location was decided by observation only without
any wind assessment. All this was done by convincing beaurocrats and politicians. Small wind
turbines of 110kW size, 14 in numbers, were imported, erected and commissioned. The site of the
wind farm became a carnival place where large number of people just came there to watch. After this
it took the government about 10 years to formulate good policy to encourage wind power.
I consider this as my lifetime achievement Award and feel extremely satisfied for this recognition
by the World Wind Energy Association. People who come to limelight by such recognition are
watched by people. Their admirers follow their acts and behaviors. Therefore, the responsibility of
such persons goes up. He cannot do anything wrong. In Indian scriptures it is written “whatever great
people do the masses copy them. Whatever they standardize by their acts the masses will follow”.
Therefore, now I cannot do anything which is wrong or not in the interest of wind energy. I gladly
accept this responsibility and promise to uphold wind energy.
I am grateful to World Wind Energy Association for this gesture and promise to keep Wind
Energy flag high.
10
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Events
11
ISSUE 2 June 2014
High Shares of Distributed
Energy Supply: The case
of Denmark
By Dr. Preben Maegaard, President emeritus, WWEA; Director emeritus,
Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy
S
ociety can no longer ignore a
energy in particular.
energy demand. As fossil fuel
verge of a major transformation. In order to
future of renewable energy as a
primary source for the world‘s
supplies diminish, and the cost
In the face of climate change and resource
scarcity, the world’s energy system is on the
massively reduce CO2 emissions, there is a need
of atomic energy continues to rise, renewable
to create an energy system that is based on a
involve gigantic challenges, in addressing the
world will have a very different energy system
energy can step in to provide feasible solutions
to energy needs. However, renewables do
fluctuating power supply that is inherent in its
nature which implies a new demand and supply
system. Integrated solutions using available,
mature technologies can be applied to the
challenges that wind and solar energy cause.
Denmark has in the past, and continues
today to be a leader in integrated renewable
energy solutions. In particular, the use of CHP,
combined heat and power systems and the
comprehensive implementation of district
heating and cooling have proven successful for
Denmark, and can be transferred elsewhere.
This article seeks to explore questions
surrounding the implementation of high shares
of distributed and integrated solutions in
relation to energy in general and renewable
12
greatly expanded use of renewable energies. It
is almost certain that in 20 or 30 years time the
from the one that currently exists.
The technological building blocks for
the transition to a sustainable energy future
already exist in the form of decentralized
cogeneration plants, wind turbines, large and
small biogas plants, solar energy and various
types of biomass for energy purposes as well
as hydro power. The primary task, therefore,
is to integrate the various forms of renewable
energy, sometimes in combination with
natural gas, in order to achieve the maximum
utilization of renewable energy sources and
supplies.
It is necessary to combine and integrate
renwable energy technologies since no single
renewable energy source can sufficiently stand-
ISSUE 2 June 2014
alone. A comprehensive future conversion to
Appropriate forms of public management and
including both large and small plants. It is not
power production. Solutions with incentives
renewable energy requires mobilization of
all forms of renewable energy installations,
enough to base development on technologies
which are currently cheapest, as this could
lead to a unilateral deployment of large
wind turbines in particular. There must be
a multiform effort involving many kinds of
supply systems, energy storage and saving
mechanisms, as well as appropriate usermanagement strategies.
A persistent global attachment to the
dominant fossil-fuel based energy system has
in most countries limited the development
of combined fluctuating solar and wind
energies into coherent, autonomous systems.
One consequence of this is that renewable
energies, when generated in excess remain
unutilized, or even wasted. Wind turbines in
regions with high shares of wind energy are
already periodically shut down when the wind
turbines produce more power than the grid
control of supply seem best to solve problems
associated with fluctuating and intermittent
for the wise use of this so-called excess power
is required, avoiding periodically selling at
very low prices, the establishment of major
new transmission lines and integrated systems
to match with supply peaks when winds are
strong.
Due to the in principle unlimited
potential of solar and wind energy resources,
in comparison to the current global energy
regime, they must be as the primary sources
of supply for meeting the future demand for
electricity, heating and mobility, irrespective
of their intermittent character. In areas with
high shares of wind or solar availability, these
energies will more and more be seen as base
load that for most hours of the year covers the
supply of power by 100% and often more.
Because biomass functions as an ideal
can absorb. Similarly, when combined heat and
long-term storage solution, and due to its
may occur. These problems will become
cooling and power stations with efficiencies
power production coincides with excess wind
energy, an additional excess power capacity
increasingly frequent as more wind turbines
feed power into the grid and more CHP systems
are utilized. Electric boilers and heat pumps
have proved to be a low cost solution to capture
excess energy, by using excess wind power for
cooling and heating. The Danish energy system
is well prepared for this.
The lack of balance between supply
and demand of power means that there may
periodically be an increasing problem of excess
power from the combined supply from high
sharees of wind turbines, solar power and
CHP. The problem, however, needs not to exist.
limited availability it is necessary that it be
reserved for combustion in combined heating/
of 85% or more. Their primary function is for
balancing by up-regulation when solar and
wind energy cannot cover the base loads.
Electricity storage will be an essential
part of the integrated systems that see power
supply, mobility, heating and cooling as a
whole together with existing possibilities like
demand-side management. These systems
should be affordable, sustainable, and efficient.
In the Energy Agreement of March 2012
the government decided that 50% of Danish
electricity production must come from wind
turbines by 2020. This has raised focus on
13
ISSUE 2 June 2014
local level the share of wind power may even
be 400% of actual consumption. Interregional
compensation with strong connections to
neighbouring countries still plays an important
role for up-regulation and down-regulation;
it may be a short term solution, however, as
the present importers of excess power most
possible locations for wind turbines and
the barriers that may exist for a successful
implementation of wind projects.
According to the Energy Agreement, 1,800
MW onshore wind capacity should be installed
By 2020 Denmark
plans to have 50%
of its demand for
electricity from
wind power. In 2014
the share will be
34%.
by 2020, 500 MW near-shore and 1,000 MW
have relatively high shares of fluctuating
power supply. By 2014 Denmark will have
34% of its demand for electricity from wind
turbines which by 2020, will grow to 50%.
At low peak power demand and high wind
speeds the wind power can currently fully
cover the consumption of electricity; at the
forms of renewable energy will only increase in
neighbouring countries as well.
Currently there exists many different
energy storage systems, but only a few
are functional and commercially available.
compared by their investment volume, their
wind turbine construction should happen on
Some regions and even countries already
buying power as the deployment of fluctuating
Moreover, these technologies need to be
offshore. This means that a significant share of
land.
likely in the future will be less interested in
losses and their potential for centralized
and decentralized applications. The storage
solutions have to be discussed by their
Accumulated Wind
Power Capacity in
Denmark (1990-2012)
. Blue: Capacity
Offshore. Green:
Capacity Onshore.
Orange: Percentage
of Domestic
Electricity Demand.
limits, environmental effects, geographical
requirements, application focus, investment
complexity, and efficiency. Furthermore storage
technologies have to be optimized in terms
of size and capacity, responding time and
flexibility, as well as their cost-effectiveness.
More and more what can be described as
Non-Grid-Wind-Energy solutions are emerging
like Power-to-Hydrogen, desalination,
Power-to-Gas etc. The following will focus
on increased applications of various forms
of renewable energy, solutions for power
balancing technologies with references to
pioneering countries that are already facing
the need for new kinds of power management
and its opportunities. Besides storage
technologies, hydro power and biomass based
power production in combination with heating
and cooling will be discussed as rather easily
applicable ancillary solutions. Worldwide
their role is still limited but with the expected
significantly increased use of intermittent and
fluctuating energy forms, structural aspects
14
ISSUE 2 June 2014
including Power-to-Heat-and-Cooling seems
diversification to 40%. The fuels used were a
A brief history of Danish
energy
gross energy consumption maintained a level
tobe indispensable.
mixture of oil, coal, natural gas and renewable
energy. During the whole period the national
around 20 million tons of oil equivalents (TOE).
Denmark is well known internationally
During the 1990s, CHP plants were built in
for its wind industry and the high share of
towns and villages as small as 150 households.
of combined heat and power (CHP), may
in towns and villages. The CHP plants contain
electricity that is obtained from the wind.
The small Danish CHP plants are typically built
District heating together with the production
in connection with district heating systems
in the long term prove to be even more
one or more CHP units, peak load boilers and
important. This transition represents the
heat storage systems. The CHP units are either
single most important initiative to reduce CO2
engines, gas turbines, or in some cases steam
emissions in Denmark. Moreover, the change
turbines or combined cycle plants.
to combined heat and power supplying up to
The consequences of
fluctuating power supply
60% of electricity and 70% of the demand for
heat has created the necessary infrastructure
that gradually can be transitioned entirely to
renewable energy.
It took only around 10 years to
dramatically shift almost half of the power
production from inefficient, centralized,
fossil fuel power supply to local, municipal or
consumer-owned companies. Coincidently this
is the amount of time it often takes to build one
nuclear power plant, or the equivalent of 1200
MWel. Denmark has not and is not planning
to build atomic power plants; this source of
supply was ultimately withdrawn from national
energy plans in 1985.
Denmark has succeeded in stabilising
Consumption
of power and
production of
wind power during
first 8 weeks of
2007 (left); same
consumption with
the integration of
3000 MW additional
wind power. Security
of supply should be
maintained and the
value of wind power
should be maximized
ecologically and
economically.
On days with a high demand for heat
combined with high wind, the combined heat
and power plants, CHPs, and the wind turbines
together sometimes feed more power into the
grid than needed by the consumers. The CHPs
are at such occasions not operating to cover
a need for power but to supply heat to the
consumers through the district heating system
and the production of electricity can be seen
as residual. The wind turbines deliver their
electricity production to the grid in accordance
to the prevailing wind speeds. CHP and the
its primary energy supply during 30 years of
economic growth. During this time, small CHP
plants and renewable energy was introduced
and supported by the state. In the period
1975 to 2000 fuel consumption for heating
in households was reduced by 30%. In the
same period, what was almost an 100% oil
based primary energy supply in the year
1975, decreased the share of oil by means of
15
ISSUE 2 June 2014
fluctuating wind and solar together feed their
change of consumer behaviour has its limits.
to an existing power grid can be balanced
with a fully charged car instead of earning a
production into the same grid.
The early application of solar and wind
without special problems. Once the share of
wind energy exceeds 20% or more, however,
initiatives have to be taken. With 20% of
wind power at the annual basis there will be
hours and even days when the wind power
production can fully cover the actual need for
power. In regions with a high concentration of
wind power installations they can deliver most
of the base load for power.
Some of measures that can be taken
to maintain a balance between supply and
demand include:
•
Store the electricity for use in periods
with insufficient solar and wind
•
Stop temporarily the operation of
some of the wind turbines
•
Export power to neighbouring
countries
•
Encourage of demand side power
consumption
•
Find new applications of fluctuating
electricity for industrial purposes and in the
heating/cooling sector
Export of power to neighbouring
countries involves heavy investments in long
distance transmission lines and is not a long
term realistic solution; periods with high wind
speeds is a trans-border phenomenon and
neighbouring countries are often expanding
their wind power capacity as well. With tariff
differentiation, industrial consumers and
households may be encouraged to change
the pattern of use of electricity by operating
special machinery, doing the washing at night
and charge-discharging future electric cars
at periods according to the power supply
situation. Experiences, however, indicate that
16
Electric car owners for instance may prefer the
benefits of leaving their home in the morning
few cents per kWh peak power delivered to the
utility.
As an example the gas based cogeneration
in Denmark form around 600 decentralized
CHP plants and more than 170 industrial
auto producers can be stopped and started
within minutes so that they match ideally
with the fluctuating renewable energy
supply. Conversely, conventional fossil fuel,
in particular atomic energy power plants
may need several hours or even a day for
adjustment. A decentralized power supply
system will only work to further create a
more robust power structure against national
black-outs. Energinet.dk, the Danish national
power system responsible, plans to divide up
the national supply system in cells with each
50,000-100,000 consumers in primarily selfsupplying cells based on local wind and CPH
to take advantage of the decentralized and
diversified structure.
Integration of fluctuating power
production with the heating sector will
gradually allow significantly higher future
shares of wind and solar energy in the system
because in a temperate climate the demand
for heat exceeds the need for electricity by a
factor of three or so. With increased use of hot
water for cooling when applying absorption
heat pumps that are driven by hot water, not
onlydoes it become realistic for more temperate
climate regions, but a more general application
is feasible when combining fluctuating power
supply from solar and wind with local CHP.
Thus the need for heating, cooling and hot
water may become the largest single outlet for
the disposal of power fluctuations from solar
and wind. Furthermore this can be achieved
ISSUE 2 June 2014
with low initial investments especially when
a district heating/cooling network is already
available. Building of new district heating
structures will at the same time create the
needed flexibility for the management of a
100% renewable energy supply and is an
affordable, highly efficient and well developed
solution with a mature technology. In regions
Different
sizes of
electric
boilers for
heating
and power
balancing
with sufficient pumped storage capacity this
will most certainly be the preferred solution,
but it has its limits due to topographical
conditions.
With wind and solar as the primary
sources of energy, biomass that is easy and
cheap to store will be the ideal back-up fuel.
On the other side biomass should not be
Combined
heat and
power, CHP,
engines
using
natural gas
or biogas
combusted when wind and solar is sufficient.
Environmentally and economically the
conversion of excess wind power for the local
district heating supply and in their hot water
reservoirs will have the per kWh value of the
substituted combustible fuel. Thus it becomes
an optimal solution instead of exporting the
excess power to neighbouring countries,
sometimes at low or even negative spot market
prices.
Technologies for Up- and
Down-regulation
Solar and wind cannot alone ensure a
continuous supply of electricity. In a future
Combined
Heat and
Power, CHP,
in Faaborg,
mediaval
town with
7.000
inhabitants
energy will be used and power imported
c. Solar and wind produce no power;
storageable supply and import is required and will
cover the total demand
Wind power and photovoltaic (PV) power are
supply scenario dominated by fluctuating
cornerstones in future renewable integrated energy
demand for electricity:
and back-up from other supply solutions or storage.A
energy forms based in full on renewables, three
typical situations may occur to meet the actual
a. Solar and wind produce too much
power; down-regulation is required and some
of the excess power can be converted, stored or
exported
b. Solar and wind produce too little
power; up-regulation is required and the stored
supply structures. They are, however, fluctuating
which causes a need for adaptation by consumers,
number of storage solutions are available. They are of
very different character regarding technology, medium
and cost. Flexibility and response time are important
requirements that the various type of energy storage
will meet differently to match satisfactorily with the
integrated supply of power, heating and cooling.
17
ISSUE 2 June 2014
South Africa: Sun, Wave and
Wind Will Replace Koeberg
Nuclear Power
By Hermann F.W. Oelsner DARLING IPP (PTY) LTD, South Africa
A
lmost one decade ago in
power producers.
of electricity generation
were clearly diminishing.
July 2004 a strong case was
made out for the inclusion
from renewable energy
sources. A comparison of the length of resource
supply chains, led to the conclusion that more
attention should be paid to wind power, which
can be integrated well into the electricity grid.
INTRODUCTION
In view of growing awareness at that time
to the facts that:
•
Excess generation capacity in South
•
The Government’s Renewable
Africa would be absorbed between 2005 and
2007.
Energy White Paper set a target of 4 % of total
electricity consumption to be generated from
renewable energy sources by 2013.
•
A SA Cabinet decision in 2001 directed
that Eskom cannot build new generation
facilities domestically until 30% of total
generation capacity is supplied by independent
18
•
New finds of substantial and
•
The green house effect strongly
economically extractable fossil fuel resources
appeared to threaten the future of our
descendents.
The time had come to seriously plan
ahead and generate electricity from renewable
energies which are available in abundance,
delivered free of charge without causing
pollution or dangerous waste and are unlikely
to ever run out.
South African Country
Data
Area:1’219’090 sq km
Population:49,99 million
Population Density:41 persons per sq km
Electrical Energy Sector Overview:
Total net capacity: 40’879 MW including
1’400 MW hydro pumped storage capacity. The
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Republic of South Africa generates and uses
approximately 45 % of the electricity generated
in Africa.
Energy Sources:
Thermo-power (fossil fuels)
37’067 MW
95,0 %
Nuclear-power
1’800 MW
4,0 %
Hydro-power
602 MW
1,5 %
Wind
10 MW
0,02 %
Total
39’479 MW
100 %
COMPARISON OF FOSSIL
FUEL AND RENEWABLE
RESOURCE SUPPLY CHAINS
The current assumption that fossil fuels
are inherently more economical is a myth
because it is based on an incomplete analysis
of the nuclear/fossil fuel energy complex
using calculations that cannot be applied to
renewable energy resources.
In theory, renewable energy sources have
an economic advantage because of their much
shorter supply chains.
While the fundamental difference between
renewable and conventional energy sources
with regard to the environmental consequences
is recognised, their relative economic viability
is assessed solely on the cost comparison
between isolated generation technologies and
not what is economically relevant prior to and
following the exploitation of these technologies.
After examining the supply chains
necessary to exploit the various fossil fuel and
nuclear energy sources we found the following:
RENEWABLE ENERGY
SUPPLY CHAIN
According to astrophysical studies, the
solar system, along with the Earth and the
other familiar planets, will last for another
four and a half billion years. Throughout
that inconceivable span of time the sun will
continue to give of its energies to people, plants
and animals.
Every year the sun delivers 15 000 times
more energy than is consumed by the entire
human population equal to 35 000 000 000
000 000 kWh/a.
Despite this fact it is still only a brave few
who dare to suggest that renewable energy can
supply all our energy needs on earth.
The intensity of insulation, strength
of prevailing winds, presence or absence of
hydropower or ocean power potential, forestry
potential or availability and quality of land
for biomass crops and level of precipitation
will after all affect the combination of sources
which could be harvested.
Harnessing the source and generating
energy on the same site – or at least in the
same region – is the reason that the supply
chains required to meet energy needs from
renewable resources are much shorter or nonexistent. With modern technology this in turn
holds out the possibility of regional or local
self-sufficiency in place of the current global
dependency on fossil fuels – an opportunity for
new political, economic and cultural freedom.
Even an opportunity for world peace?
WIND-THE PREFERRED
OPTION
Arguably, wind power is world wide the
most advanced and commercially available
of all renewable technologies. The use of
wind power is spreading from the industrial
world to developing countries and areas. Our
research has shown that for South African
conditions wind energy is the most promising
and presently most economic of all renewable
technologies for bulk energy electricity
generation. Generating electricity from wind
19
ISSUE 2 June 2014
makes economic as well as environmental
capacity installation a conservatively estimated
last three years the cost of electricity from PV
will match the demand patterns of the area by
sense.
However, it must be noted that within the
has been reduced drastically and comes closer
to be competitive with wind power.
EXAMPLE: Darling National
Demonstration Windfarm Project
In 1996 the Oelsner Group identified a site
on Moedmag Hill near Darling in the Western
Cape as an area well suited to the siting of a
wind farm.
17 months wind measurements were
taken using two monitoring systems in parallel.
Results were correlated with 10 years
historical wind data from Cape Town Airport,
Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and Namaqua
Sands at Saldhana.
The result is an excellent wind regime of
an average wind speed in excess of 7,5 m/s at
50 meter hub height, depending on the location
on the hill.
The Capacity factor is 34 %. For a 5,2 MW
20
output of 13,5 GWh per year was predicted.
The pattern of the electricity generation
being higher in the late afternoon when local
demand starts to peak. There is also a good
match of supply with demand on an annual
basis since the wind is stronger in the summer
months when an influx of tourists comes to the
coastal towns nearby.
Embedded Generation
There are two ways electricity generators
can feed into the electricity supply system:
- At the level of the high voltage
transmission network, i.e. into the National
Grid. This is what all large generators do. This
is known as centralised generation
- At the level of the lower voltage
distribution network, i.e. directly into Regional
Electricity Companies’ networks. This is known
as embedded generation
All wind farms and most other renewables
projects are embedded generators. Embedded
ISSUE 2 June 2014
generation can bring a number of advantages
over centralised generation, but the extent of
the advantage depends on where the embedded
generator is located in the network.
Advantages of Embedded Generation
over Centralised Generation
Basically, embedded generators deliver
electricity to consumers in a more direct way
than centralised generators. The electricity
is generated in closer proximity to the user,
reducing the distance over which the electricity
has to travel and therefore reducing electrical
losses. The electricity is also delivered either at
or closer to the correct voltage for distribution.
(Electrical output from centralised generators
has to be transformed up to a high voltage,
transmitted, and then transformed back down
to the lower voltage).
Economic benefits: The monetary value
of embedded generation
Transmission and Distribution Losses
Using the high voltage transmission
network costs money. There is no need (or at
least reduced need) for huge and expensive
high voltage transmission lines and transformer
stations for embedded generators, therefore
saving money. (Who gets the financial benefit
from this avoided cost is another matter).
The cost of electricity increases as it
moves through the system. This is due to a
variety of physical factors, such as transmission
and distribution losses, and institutional
factors, such as charges.
Electricity from embedded generators,
such as wind farms, usually enters the system
at the 11 kV or 66 kV level and constitutes
a higher value than power fed from central
power stations into the National Grid. The
exact value depends on geographical location,
and the nature of the connection to Eskom’s
distribution network.
Around 7,7 % of electricity is lost during
transmission and distribution on the national
grid. Presently the Western Cape pays a 3
% surcharge for transmission losses. It is
generally accepted that the real cost is in excess
Photo: Feng Xiangying
21
of 25 % for transmission and distribution
losses.
External Costs
If less electricity is lost in transmission
ISSUE 2 June 2014
6 to 12 months.
Environmental Benefits
Avoidance of green house gases
and distribution, then less has to be generated
contributes to reduction in global warming.
addition to the avoidance of pollution related
24 GWh) are as follows:
and less external, hidden costs from fossil
fuel power generation are caused. This is in
external costs from the wind power electricity
generation.
Avoidance of pollution and savings from a 13
MW Darling Wind Farm (annual production of
Wind generated electricity replaces
coal electricity
External costs are the costs to human
Life time savings (25 years)
health and the environment, which are not
Coal
reflected in the price of electricity.
Society bears the cost of pollution in
terms of poorer health (leading to higher health
service costs funded by the taxpayer) and a
degraded environment (which increases the
cost of food and farm products). Many attempts
have been made to put a price on these costs
but as yet no universally accepted method has
been found.
Strategic Benefits
Embedded generators can help prevent
power cuts. If there is a partial failure on the
high voltage network, then an operating wind
farm can protect local customers from a power
cut.
If there are severe problems with meeting
electrical demand over an area, some areas may
have their power switched off for a period. It
is very unlikely that an area with an embedded
generator will be switched off, because of its
valuable electricity contribution.
By “not having all balls in one basket” the
vulnerability of central systems to faults, earth
quakes and terror, etc., which can wipe out
power in one stroke is very much reduced.
Additional capacity requirements can
easily be installed because of short lead times,
22
450 000 tons
Water
1,7 Bill litres
CO2
850 000 tons
SO2
6 900 tons
Nitrogen Oxide
3 500 tons
Particulate emission
420 tons
Wind energy uses land resources
sparingly, because 99 % of the land can still be
used for farming and grazing as usual.
Ecological impact can easily be minimised
during construction and restoring of
surrounding landscape has become a routine
task.
Scrap value covers cost of decommissioning,
dismantling and restoring of site.
Additional Benefits from Wind Power
Electricity Generation
Pay-back period
Most favourable use of energy is in the
fact that the energy used to manufacture and
erect wind turbines will be recovered after 2 to
3 months of operation, the so-called pay-back
period.
Savings of National Resources
Coal fired power stations consume almost
2 liters of Water per kWh electricity generated.
South Africa is a water-stressed country and
wind farms save huge amounts of water in their
ISSUE 2 June 2014
life time.
Darling Wind Farm will save 350 000 tons
of coal in its operational lifetime of 25 years.
Despite large coal reserves in South Africa
a recent report in Business Day stated that due
to the mode of mining, reserves which can be
mined will last only another 30 years.
Job Creation
World-wide experience demonstrates
that wind energy has a very high job creation
effect thanks to its decentralised electricity
generation. Compared with large central power
Article 12 of the Koyoto Protocol deals
with the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) which allows “North-South cooperation
between Annex 1 and Non Annex countries.
Due to its high fossil fuel content of power
generation, South Africa will be very attractive
as partner for European countries to buy
Carbon Credits. The value of these credits
has, however, rapidly decreased due to
costly exemptions given to utilities and large
corporations.
stations, the construction of many small power
OCEAN POWER
building permission, marketing, selling, service,
local coastal wave estimates is included
generation plants results in repetition of work
processes for design, production, planning,
maintenance and operation control.
Certain components for example, like
rotor blades are manufactured in very labour
intensive processes to reach the required high
quality standards.
A brief presentation of the global and
with illustrations of various ocean power
technologies namely two types of technology:
Onshore: Devices built on the coastline,
Wind energy electricity generation creates
10 times more jobs than nuclear and 4 times
more jobs than coal fired power plants.
Reduction in Wind Turbine Prices
The economics of wind energy are already
very strong, despite the youth of the industry.
The downward trend in costs is predicted
to continue. The strongest influence will be
exerted by the downward trend in wind turbine
prices. As the world market in wind turbines
continues to boom, and new players world-
wide enter the market, wind turbine prices will
continue to fall.
Foreign Investment and Export Potential
There is an outstanding opportunity
for South Africa to establish a new exciting
industry and join the rapidly expanding global
wind energy market, creating employment
through the export of wind energy goods and
services.
Clean Development Mechanism – CDM
Photo: Xu Xia
23
special structure of the ground needed, building
activities on the shore, electricity directly fed
into the grid
Offshore: floating devices moored on
the ground of the sea, utilises waves from any
direction, power is transferred to the coast
mostly via sea cable
THE FINAL QUESTION:
“WHAT HAPPENS WHEN
THE WIND DOES NOT
BLOW?”
Wind farms are not replacing generation
capacity, but generation of electric energy. The
wind blows in general during standard and
peak electricity demand periods.
In case when there is no wind, back-up
supply from central power stations must be
supplied, most of the times from base load
generation in off-peak periods.
ISSUE 2 June 2014
in general during second half day peak demand
periods and is much more economic than the
gas fired power stations which are build to
cater for peak demand periods only.
The national grid is supported by Eskom’s
idling spare capacity and capable to handle
variations. As the utility electricity supply is
able to handle varying consumer demand so
can it handle “negative electricity demand”
from wind farms.
As the number of turbines per installation
increases, the lower the probability of short
term fluctuations.
There are practically no disadvantages
from generating electricity from wind power,
while there are numerous advantages and
benefits of high value from this technology.
IN CLOSURE A QUOTE BY LATE NELSON
With its advantage of 99% availability
MANDELA – November 2011
In Denmark at times wind energy
foundation of dedication to the primacy of
generated electricity can be predicted on a 24
hour basis from weather forecasts.
“Our policy must rest on the solid
accounts for more than 100% of electricity
people and their long-term well being.
average figure for the potential penetration of
from powerful forces at the expense of the long-
CONCLUSION
birthright of future generations.”
in the country. Around the world, however, a
safe assumption is that 20 % is an appropriate
wind power into national grid systems.
Wind energy integrates well into the
We have to be on guard against
temptations of short-term benefits and pressures
term interest of all.
We cannot afford to bargain away the
South Africa with its abundance of wind
electricity grid. Although wind power varies,
resources, its large available land areas and
fired power stations on the South African
house” of the world.
consumer demand also varies.
Increased use of flexible gas (kerosene)
West Coast offer ideal back-up for low wind
variations. On the other hand wind is blowing
24
its excellent existing infrastructure has the
potential to become a significant “wind power
Wind Power is clean, safe and sustainable.
ISSUE 2 June 2014
25
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Scaling up of Wind Energy
Development Plans in Kenya
By Rahul Kumar Kandoi, Mohammad Ziaulhaq Ansari, Neelu Kumar Mishra, Dr
Deepshikha Sharma, WindForce Management Services Private Limited;
Eng. Isaac Kiva, Eng. Kihara Mungai, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum,
Government of Kenya
Introduction
Electricity has become an indispensable
pre-requisite for enhancing economic activity
and improving human quality of life. The
continuously increasing dependence on
electricity is leading to a steep increase in
demand for power across the globe. Kenya,
located on the eastern part of African continent
has a total effective generation capacity
of -1,600 MW with peak demand of -1500
MW, which is shared by only 18% of total
households in Kenya as more than 80% of
households remain without access to electricity.
The main sources of energy in Kenya are
wood fuel, petroleum and electricity accounting
for 69%, 22%, and 9% of the total energy
use respectively. More precisely, 67.5% of the
electricity is generated using renewable energy
sources, which is predominantly Hydro with
a 47.8%, Geothermal with 12.4% and wind by
0.3% shares respectively, while 32.5% of the
electricity generated is from fossil fuels. Kenya’s
electricity sub-sector is facing challenges of
rapidly growing demand for electricity, high
dependence on hydroelectric power and
26
high cost of supply. Against these challenges,
the Government’s strategy for expanding
infrastructure in the sector is to promote
equitable access to quality energy services at
least cost while protecting the environment.
Renewable energy development especially
wind and geothermal are expected to play an
important role in overcoming the country’s
power problems (Macro Planning Directorate,
2008).
At present, the country has an installed
wind capacity of 5.1 MW wind-farm operated
by KenGen at the Ngong site near Nairobi
though there are some large capacity wind
projects in pipeline including the 300 MW Lake
Turkana Project. In order to achieve this vision
of installing above 2 GW of wind capacity by
2030, the Government of Kenya is encouraging
independent investment in the wind sector
and has introduced an attractive feed-in tariff
(Ministry of Energy, 2012).
In 2008, the Government of Kenya
initiated a research study for ‘Wind Energy
Data Analysis and Development Programme’ in
Kenya under Energy Sector Recovery Project
(ESRP) supported by the World Bank with an
ISSUE 2 June 2014
aim of establishment of large utility scale wind
to wind atlas development and wind data
of Kenya through Ministry of Energy &
of similar nature in the past:
farms in Kenya deploying modern wind turbine
technologies. In this exercise, the Government
Petroleum, Kenya installed 95 wind met masts
across different parts of the country. This
research is an outcome of the project awarded
by Ministry of Energy & Petroleum, Kenya
to WinDForce to determine country’s wind
potential and identify potentially viable wind
sites for utility scale wind-farm deployment in
Kenya. This study estimates wind potential and
develop wind atlas of the country at varying
height. This is followed by identification of
potentially viable wind sites for pre-feasibility
analysis using pre-feasibility assessment.
The Wind Resource Assessment carried out
establishes that over 73% of the total area of
the country experiences wind-speeds more
than 6 m/s at 100 m above ground.
In spite of high wind potential assessed
in this study, the wind energy development
in Kenya on a utility scale has not taken place
for various reasons such as insufficient wind
resource data, lack of financial resources,
inadequate infrastructure and non-availability
and instability of grid network. The research
study also recognises various existing policies
to accelerate the facilitation of renewable
energy sources and puts forward guiding
principles, objectives and targets, priority
sectors, and policies and measures for medium
and long-term wind energy development in
Kenya.
LITERATURE REVIEW:
The research work involved a detailed
study of the historical backgrounds pertaining
analysis in Kenya. This literature review section
highlights the most relevant studies undertaken
Solar and Wind Energy Resource
Assessment (SWERA), an UNEP project led by
Mr. Daniel Theuri in the year 2008 conducted
Kenya’s wind resource assessment including
data capturing and analysis, computation
and mapping using GIS & other relevant
technologies to produce Kenya’s wind atlas
(UNEP, 2008). This work produced Wind Atlas
map at 50m height for Kenya using 10 stations
at 10m height (Hammond, 2011).
A project on Wind Energy Assessment
and Utilization in Kenya, lead by Christopher
Oludhe, Department of Meteorology, University
of Nairobi presents wind speed estimates for
the country. The study concludes that Kenya
has huge wind energy potential which is
capable of driving various types of wind energy
machines (Oludhe, 2010).
A study conducted by College of
Architecture and Engineering highlights the
Wind Regime Analysis and reserve estimation
for Kenya at three sites - Ngong, Kinangop
and Turkana. The study concludes that Ngong
site exhibits high variability with mean wind
speed of 11.5 m/s whereas Kinangop indicates
a lesser variability compared to Ngong and
Turkana with mean wind speed of 9.96 m/s
(Barasa M, 2013).
METHODOLOGY FOR WIND
ATLAS DEVELOPMENT
The wind atlas development of Kenya at
80m height has been carried out using wind
mast datasets, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data,
SRTM Digital Elevation Model and Global Land
27
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Cover (GLC 2000) datasets for entire Kenya
a model based on boundary layer theory. The
wind datasets development of Wind Atlas/Map
derived from LULC data. The methodology for
as a region of interest. The key elements of
mean annual wind speed at 80m is recomputed
methodology for the examination of existing
are:
•
from the model using surface roughness
development of meso-maps is described below.
Extraction of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
The meso-scale map development led
global data on wind for Kenya (Kalnay, 1996);
•
to the identification of high potential wind
Extraction of NASA’s Shuttle Radar
farm sites across the country out of which 8
Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital elevation;
•
Kenya;
•
high potential sites for wind farm production
Extraction of Global Land Cover for
assessment were selected after a detailed
analysis. The parameters such as high wind
Development of a long term wind
speed assessed at 80m height, remoteness to
speed model for Kenya (Hossain J. &., 2011);
and
•
national parks and reserved areas, distance
from existing grids, site accessibility by road,
Assessment of wind speed and wind
wind speed existing terrain conditions have
power density at 80m (Hossain, 2013).
been critically examined for short listing the
The task involves setting up of a grid of 1
high potential sites and further recommending
km2 resolution over region of interest and the
these for mast installation.
use of measured wind data for computing mean
The wind-farm energy production
annual wind speed and the NCEP/NCAR re-
assessment for 8 selected sites is carried out as
analysis data for computing long-term means.
per IEC standards WTGs ranking considering
The monthly mean wind speed from NCEP/
the input parameters of annual mean wind
NCAR dataset from January 1948 to December
2012 has been used to arrive at long term mean
annual values. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
data and the measured wind speed data from
41 sites along with GLC 2000 dataset, SRTM
Digital Elevation Model is used as an input to
speed, turbulence intensity etc. and the
Figure 1
Methodology
followed for the
development of
Meso Map
energy has been modeled using 05 selected
different WTGs of 2 MW platform. The net
production is estimated considering all kinds
of reasonable factor that may reduce the gross
energy output such as air density correction
factor, array losses, Machine & Grid Availability,
Transmission Losses.
WIND RESOURCE IN KENYA
In this assessment, the wind speed for
entire Kenya is categorized as Class I (>7.5 m/
s), Class II (< 7.5 m/s & > 6.5 m/s), and Class III
(< 6.5 m/s & > 6.0 m/s).
The study has estimated Kenya’s potential
area at various intervals of wind speeds at 80m
height. At 80m height, 64 km2 is categorized
into Class I; 23,019 km2 into Class II and
28
ISSUE 2 June 2014
151,723 km2 into Class III.
The study has assessed wind power
density (WPD) for entire Kenya at each 1 km2
resolution and at 80m height. The density is
2
categorized as poor (< 150 Watt/m ), fair (150
- 250 Watt/m2), good (250 - 350 Watt/m2), or
excellent (> 350 Watt/m2).
The study has developed wind speed
map of Kenya at 80m height for development
of wind Atlas for Kenya. The study observed
that Marsabit in Eastern Province has the
2
largest potential area of 75,596 km with a
maximum value of mean annual wind speed
of 8.47m/s and minimum wind speed of 4.96
m/s. The table below highlights some of the
high potential provinces with potential area
and assessed minimum and maximum value of
mean annual wind speed.
The wind speed map of Kenya at 80m
height for development of wind Atlas for Kenya
is shown below.
The study has also assessed wind
potential capacity with average PLF that can
be harnessed using Vestas 2 MW Platform
wind turbine. The wind potential is assessed
for Vestas 2 MW platform over entire area of
the country assuming Machine Availability
(MA) of 95%, Grid Availability (GA) of 95%,
Transmission Loss Factor (TLF) of 95%, and
Wake Losses of 80%. In arriving at potential
assessments, we have assumed 7.5 MW per
km2 in accordance with the Industry norms for
turbine spacing. The potential capacity which
can be harnessed from wind resource in Kenya
Figure 2
Potential Area
with Wind Speed
classes at 80m
height
Figure 3
Potential Area
with Wind Power
density classes
at 80m height
29
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Table 1 High wind potential regions in Kenya assessed from
the Meso-map study
Long term Wind Mean Speeds at 80m
No.
Province
County
Potential
2
Area (km )
(m/s)
Minimum value of Maximum value of
mean annual wind mean annual wind
speed
speed
1
Eastern
Marsabit
75,596
4.96
8.47
2
Rift Valley
Turkana
68,314
2.73
6.6
3
North-Eastern
Wajir
53,413
5.64
6.53
4
North-Eastern
Garissa
44,459
5.77
7
5
Coast
Tana River
38,610
5.32
7.02
6
Eastern
Isiolo
24,881
5.8
6.84
7
Rift Valley
Samburu
21,102
5.49
6.57
8
Coast
Kilifi
12,310
5.29
7.41
9
Rift Valley
Baringo
10,942
4.8
6.3
sites involved consideration of many aspects
such as distance from transmission system,
terrain, logistics, environmental issues etc.
WRA models developed by WinDForce
have been used for carrying out energy
estimates for a capacity of 50 MW wind farm
for each site. Annual energy output is derived
for each wind-farm sites to arrive at optimal
layout of the Wind-farm with minimum spacing
of 7D and 5D as per industry accordance.
The optimal layout of the Wind-farm is based
on WRA optimization model considering a
maximal boundary area of 65 km2 near to the
site and mast locations respectively. Air density
correction factor and Machine Availability of
95%, Grid Availability of 95%, Transmission
Loss of 5% were accounted to arrive at net
annual energy output.
The study has computed PLF results for
these 8 sites with 5 WTG models including
Gamesa 97 with 78m hub height, Sinovel82
with 80m hub height, Suzlon97 with 90m hub
height, GE103 with 80m hub height and V100
with 80m hub height. Surface roughness Map,
Contour Map, and Wind Resource Grid are
developed as a part of the study.
With Plant Load factors for 2 WTG models
for short-listed sites ranging between 25-38%;
the 500 MW wind capacity estimate over next 3
years by the Government of Kenya looks like an
is highlighted in the table below.
It is evident that Kenya has huge wind
potential capacity of 1,604 GW in wind speed
Class III, while 642 GW of potential is observed
Figure 4
Wind Speed Map
of Kenya at 80m
height
achievable objective.
POLICY AND REGULATORY
FRAMEWORK FOR WIND
PROJECTS IN KENYA
The Government of Kenya recognizes
in Class II and 4.6 GW in Class I respectively.
implementation of renewable energy sources
electricity using different wind turbine models
generation sources (Funds, 2011). The main
Further to this assessment, identification of
8 wind sites potentially viable for generating
was conducted. The selection of appropriate
30
(RES) to enhance country’s electricity supply
capacity and bring in diversification of
policies concerning RES are:
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Table 2 Potential Capacity with average PLF
Wind Class
Wind Speed Range
Potential
Area (km2)
(m/s)
Average PLF
Capacity (GW)
I
6.50 < WS > 6.00
612
4.59
30.3%
II
7.25 < WS > 6.50
85,720
642.90
22.2%
III
7.75 < WS > 7.25
213,908
1,604.31
17.6%
Table 3 Identified 8 potential sites for Wind Resource
Assessment
UTM Zone
Measured
Mast
Distance from
Average
proposed
Wind Speed
Mast
Elevation
Easting
Northing
at 40m
Zone wind farm site
height (m/s)
(km)
Baragoi
2,53,842
1,97,457
37 N
15
5.42
1,250
Garissa
5,79,391
99,57,889
37 M
24
5.72
225
Habasweni
5,54,768
1,11,534
37 N
13
6.33
207
Hola
6,14,292
98,33,744
37 M
25
5.05
66
Liasmis
3,67,192
176,467
37 N
24
5.18
585
Narok
7,81,629
98,78,219
36 M
15
5.55
1,964
Maikona
3,52,373
2,86,391
37 N
40
7.06
405
Ras Ngomeni
6,30,450
96,65,665
37 M
62
5.61
11
locations
(m)
Table 4 Net Annual Energy Output using SL82 and S97 WTGs
Model for 8 selected sites
WTGs Model >>
Site Name
Annual Mean
Wind Speed
at 40 m (m/s)
Average Site
Elevation (m)
SL82
Net AEP
(GWh/
year)
S97
Net PLF
(%)
Net AEP
(GWh/
year)
Net PLF
(%)
Baragoi
5.42
1288
124.0
28.6%
130.0
30.7%
Garissa
5.72
204
135.4
31.2%
138.6
32.8%
Habasweni
6.33
217
162.2
37.4%
164.3
38.8%
Hola
5.05
78
106.5
24.6%
108.9
25.7%
Liasmis
5.18
619
119.6
27.6%
130.2
30.8%
Narok
5.55
1957
99.0
22.8%
102.3
24.2%
Maikona
7.06
404
159.7
36.8%
157.4
37.2%
Ras Ngomeni
5.61
1
161.2
37.2%
163.2
38.6%
•
Kenya Vision 2030 - the National
economic development blueprint defining
long term vision targets as 5,110 MW from
geothermal, 1,039 MW from hydro, 2,036 MW
from wind, 3,615 MW from thermal, 2,000 MW
from imports, 2,420 MW from coal and 3,000
MW from other sources in order to meet the
increased electricity demand (Kenya, Kenya
Vision 2030, 2007).
•
The Ministry of Energy established
a Feed-in Tariff policy (FiT) in 2008 covering
wind, small hydro and biomass sources. It
provides investment security and market
stability for investors from RES whilst
encouraging private investors to operate
their power plants prudently and efficiently
to maximize returns. The FIT policy provides
for wind generated electricity a fixed tariff of
US $ Cents 11.0 per kWh of electrical energy
supplied to the grid (Ministry of Energy, 2012).
This attractive FiT is intended to attract private
sector investments in setting up wind-farms in
Kenya.
•
Development of National Climate
Change Response Strategy in 2010 to
strengthen and focus nationwide actions
towards climate change adaptation and GHG
emission mitigation (Kenya, 2010);
•
The Government has approved zero-
rated import duty and removed Value Added
Tax (VAT) on renewable energy, equipment and
accessories (Ministry Of Energy, 2012).
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF WIND
ENERGY SECTOR IN KENYA
The study lists key recommendations to
the Government of Kenya to suitably address
concerns of various stakeholders and develop
a clear strategy to harness the country’s
immense wind potential. A few of these
recommendations are highlighted below:
•
Formulate “Medium and Long-term
Development Plan for Wind Energy in Kenya”:
The plan should put forward the guiding
principles, objectives and targets, priority
sectors, and policies and measures for the
31
ISSUE 2 June 2014
development of wind energy in Kenya.
CONCLUSION
planning and implementation agencies related
energy resource in Kenya has the potential
development of the sector.
with 2250 GWs of potential across wind speed
•
Improve the market environment:
Proper coordination and integration between
to Power sector would help Kenya a long way
in improving its market environment and
•
Establish sustainable and stable
market demand: Market mechanisms providing
creditability and support to regulators in
enforcing new tariffs and technical standards
will strengthen the position of Independent
Power Producers (IPPs) in the market.
•
Expand and stabilize Kenya’s power
grid network: In order to meet the electricity
demand of entire nation, it is essential to
establish a more efficient and highly networked
centralized grid as the high potential wind
areas like Turkana and Marsabit are far away
from national grid.
•
Increase accessibility to potential
wind sites by improving roads and highways
network: Accessibility to a wind farm site is
important for construction, operation and
maintenance of the wind farm.
•
Assess & review wind power policies:
Given the present situation of wind sector
in Kenya, it becomes imperative to create a
concentrated umbrella Wind Energy Policy
document. The document should bring clarity
to the market and relevant stakeholders
about Government’s commitment to Wind
energy development in terms of the financial,
institutional and regulatory supporting
framework to wind investments in Kenya.
32
The study shows that the immense wind
to fulfill power requirements for the whole
country at an affordable price. It appears that
classes I, II and III; the 0.5 GW wind capacity
estimate over next 3 years by the Government
of Kenya looks like an achievable objective.
The study emphasizes that to implement this
solution efficiently, Kenya will have to adopt a
suitable framework which attracts investments
from public and private sectors to develop
various wind power projects in the country.
The Government of Kenya needs to come up
with a concentrated umbrella Wind Energy
Policy document considering the issues and
challenges faced by various stakeholders
involved in the development of Kenya’s wind
energy sector.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge the kind
cooperation of Ministry of Energy & Petroleum
(MoEP), Kenya; The Government of Kenya and
The World Bank. The authors are particularly
thankful to Mr. Rodney Sultani of MoEP for his
support. The authors gratefully acknowledge the
support and inputs provided by Dr. Jami Hossain
in conducting this study. The authors are highly
grateful to Mr. Stefan Gsänger and World Wind
Energy Association (WWEA) for organizing a
study tour for a high-level government delegation
from Kenya to Europe.
ISSUE 2 June 2014
References:
1.
Kalnay, E (1996). The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin American Meterological Society , 77, 437-
2.
Hossain, J, & Kishore, VVVN (2013). Assessment and Mapping of Wind Energy Resource in India. Energy Policy
471.
(submitted).
3.
Hossain, J, & Kishore, V (2011). A GIS based assessment of potential for windfarms in India. Renewable Energy.
4.
Hammond, AB (2011). Terminal Evaluation of UNEP GEF Project Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment.
SWERA. United Nations Environment Programme.
5.
Oludhe, C (2010). Assessment and Utilization of Wind Power in Kenya. Metrology & Related Sciences.
6.
Barasa M (2013). Wind Regime Analysis and Reserve Estimation. College of Architecture and Engineering,
University of Nairobi.
7.
A Summary of Key Investment Opportunities in Kenya (2008). Macro Planning Directorate, Office of Prime Minister,
Ministry of State for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030. http://www.kenyarep-jp.com/business/business_
images/SUMMARY%20OF%20KEY%20INVESTMENT%20OPPORTUNITIES%20IN%20KENYA.pdf. Last accessed on 15th Feb
2014.
8.
Feed-in-Tariffs policy for wind, biomass, small hydro, geothermal, biogas and solar, 2nd revision. (2012). Ministry of
Energy, Government of Kenya. http://kerea.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Feed-in-Tariff-Policy-2010.pdf. Last accessed
on 15th Feb 2014.
9.
National Energy Policy. 2012, 3rd Draft. Ministry Of Energy, Republic of Kenya. http://www.kengen.co.ke/
documents/National%20Energy%20Policy%20-%20Third%20Draft%20-%20May%2011%202012.pdf. Last accessed on 15th
Feb 2014.
10. Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA). 2008. Kenya Country Report. http://kerea.org/wp-content/
uploads/2012/12/Kenya-Solar-Wind-Energy-Resource%20Assessment.pdf. Last accessed on 15th Feb 2014.
11. Scaling-Up Renewable Energy Program, 2011. Joint Development Partner Scoping Mission. http://www.
climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/sites/climateinvestmentfunds.org/files/Kenya_post_mission_report_March_10_2011.pdf. Last
accessed on 15th Feb 2014.
12. National Climate Change Response Strategy, April 2010. Government of Kenya. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/
uploads/2012/04/National-Climate-Change-Response-Strategy_April-2010.pdf. Last accessed on 15th Feb 2014.
13. Kenya Vision 2030, October 2007. Government of Kenya. http://www.vision2030.go.ke/index.php/home/aboutus.
Last accessed on 15th Feb 2014.
33
ISSUE 2 June 2014
Germany: The Role of Wind
Energy in a Greenhouse
Gas-neutral Energy Supply
By Dr. Klaus Müschen, Insa Lütkehus, Hanno Salecker
Introduction
Today there is neither a doubt that climate
change is already under way nor that it is man-
made. Especially the industrial nations share a
huge responsibility to reduce their greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve the
goal not to increase global temperature by
more than 2°C compared to pre-industrial
temperatures.
With this objective, the German Federal
Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt,
UBA) published a study in 2013 which shows
that an almost completely GHG-neutral society
in Germany is technically achievable. Even
in an industrial nation like Germany it is
possible to reduce 95% of its GHG emissions
that an electricity supply based on 100%
renewable energies is feasible in 2050. The
study “Germany 2050 - a greenhouse gasneutral country” now shows that renewable
energies are technically even capable to
fed Germany´s entire energy supply. In all
scenarios wind energy plays a key role because
of its potential and economic development
possibilities. This paper will give an idea of
the scenarios of the Federal Environment
Agency for Germany and the possible role of
wind energy in a future energy supply.
Germany 2050 - a
greenhouse gas-neutral
Country
The study “Germany 2050 - a greenhouse
compared to 1990 by 2050. Huge parts of
gas-neutral country” [1] demonstrates that it is
renewable energy supply is the key to GHG-
which means reductions of the per capita
the nationwide GHG emissions are caused by
the energy sector. Therefore the shift to 100%
neutrality. The study “Energy Target 2050:
100% Renewable Electricity Supply” of the
Federal Environment Agency already showed
34
technically achievable to reduce Germany’s GHG
emissions by 95% compared to 1990 by 2050
emissions from around 11 to approximately
1 ton CO2eq per year. The study does not
make predictions on future developments,
ISSUE 2 June 2014
but describes one possible technical option
within a solution space.
The scenario takes all relevant emission
sources into account: emission from energy
supply (electricity, heating and transport),
industry and waste disposal as well as
emissions from agriculture, forestry and land
use changes. At the same time the scenario
assumes that in 2050 Germany will still be an
exporting industrial country with a standard
of living similar to today. The study focuses
on the GHG emissions that are generated in
Germany; interactions with other countries are
not included. Accordingly, emissions generated
in Germany by production of goods which
are determined for export are included, but
emissions emanating from imported goods are
not taken into account.
As shown in Figure 1 nowadays more
than 80% of GHG emissions are caused by the
energy sector. That is why making extensive
use of the existing energy saving potential,
especially in heat consumption, is an essential
measure to reduce emissions. Additionally
it is necessary to feed the remaining energy
needs by switching to a completely renewable
energy production. In order to achieve this,
the scenario assumes an electrification of the
heat and transport sector and a corresponding
additional generation of renewable electricity.
Since the Federal Environment Agency
Figure 1
GHG emissionsI, II
generated in Germany
in 1990, 2010 and
scenario for 2050
disregards the use of bioenergy from specially
and other hydrocarbons can be generated by
for humans and biosphere associated with
it is possible to reduce GHG emissions of the
cultivated crops and harvesting of wood for
these purposes in order to minimize risks
the use of such biomass sources, its use of
further catalytic processes from hydrogen.
With “power-to-gas” and “power-to-liquid”
energy sector to almost zero tonnes CO2eq. As a
biomass is restricted to waste and residues
consequence the demand for electricity from
sector and b) generate hydrogen through
scenario assumes an annual power demand of
(only cascade use). This leads to the necessity
to a) partially electrify the heat and transport
the electrolysis of water by using electricity
generated from renewable energies. Methane
renewable energies will rise significantly due
to conversion and transport losses. In total the
nearly 3,000 TWh in 2050 (see Figure 2).
The potential of hydropower and
35
geothermal power in Germany is strictly
ISSUE 2 June 2014
bigger in China [2]. Today around 23,800 wind
limited. For this reason the scenario assumes
turbines with a capacity of in total 34,250MW
installations. In principle Germany has the
share of 8.4% of Germany’s gross electricity
that power in 2050 will be predominantly
generated by wind turbines and photovoltaic
necessary technical potential to generate its
are erected in Germany [3]. Wind turbines
produced around 50 TWh in 2012, i.e. a
consumption [4]. At present this capacity is
complete electricity demand by renewable
almost entirely erected on land. Because of
potential can be used in a sustainable and
from the coast. Therefore it is more difficult
energies. But especially for ecological but also
economical reasons just a part of the technical
sensible way. So the scenario assumes that a
proportion of the renewable power will be
imported from abroad. Nevertheless also a
big amount of electricity will be generated by
photovoltaic and wind power plants located
in Germany. Therefore the following will now
detail the possibilities of wind energy use in
Germany.
Recent and future role of
wind energy in Germany
With a 10.8% share of the globally
installed wind capacity Germany is already
a leading country in wind energy use which
is only topped by China and the United States.
In 2013 the new installed capacity was only
ecological reasons wind energy use at sea in
Germany is only permitted in areas far away
and still very expensive in comparison to landbased wind turbines or offshore wind energy
use in other countries. The development is
continuous, but slower than expected, further
strengthening the importance of onshore wind
energy in the German energy shift.
Before the GHG-neutral scenario was
modeled the Federal Environment Agency
published
the study “Energy Target 2050: 100%
Renewable Electricity Supply” in 2010 which
modeled a power supply from 100% renewable
energies in 2050 based on a so called “Regions
Network scenario” [5] [6]. Within the scope of
the study a nationally available renewable
energy potential considering technical and
environmental constraints was determined.
Figure 1
Qualitative representation
of the energy flow in the
scenario of a GHG-neutral
Germany in 2050I, II
36
ISSUE 2 June 2014
The assumptions concerning the use of
their hub heights, rotor diameters and rated
already mentioned GHG-neutral scenario with
wind turbines a national average utilization
PV, biomass, hydropower and geothermal
installations were similar to the ones in the
a pronounced focus on PV and wind energy.
A difference exists especially in the case
of onshore wind energy use. The “Regions
Network scenario” presumed that 1% of
Germany´s territory could be used for wind
energy harnessing. This area would allow an
installed capacity of 60 GW with an annual
output potential of 180 TWh. The same output
potential was assumed for offshore wind
energy. Together wind energy at land and at
sea would be able to meet more than half of
Germany’s electricity generation. That said,
it was still a very conservative estimation.
Therefore it was decided to do detailed
research on the onshore wind energy potential
in Germany in order to get a better picture of
onshore wind power potential in scenarios like
e.g. the study “Germany 2050 - a greenhouse
capacity have direct effects on power output
and capacity utilization. With these modern
ratio amounting to 2,440 full load hours is
possible. In addition the low noise emissions
of the selected turbines have an impact on the
required distance to settlements and therefore
on the determined area potential. Apart from
that it must be considered that it was not the
aim of the study to define a realizable potential.
The realizable potential of onshore wind energy
of course is even distinctly lower because
neither economic framework conditions
nor local acceptance levels were taken into
account. Even when considering these limiting
factors, it becomes clear that onshore wind
energy generation is able to meet a large
share of Germany’s future power demand and
will become more important as the heat and
transport sector become electrified.
gas-neutral country”.
Conclusions
was published in 2013 [7]. This GIS-based study
showed that GHG-neutrality with annual per
basis of the assumptions made and the chosen
nation like Germany and without a reduction
The study on the nationwide area and
output potential of wind energy in Germany
clearly showed that the onshore wind energy
potential was underestimated so far. On the
turbine technology in principle around 13.8%
of Germany´s territory could be used for wind
energy harnessing. This area potential would
allow an installed capacity of 1,200 GW with an
annual output potential of 2,900 TWh. However,
any interpretations of the results have to take
into account that several considerations which
require case-by-case analysis could not be
reflected in a sensible way. Above all aspects of
special protected species conservation could
not be taken into account which distinctly
lowers the potential. Also the chosen reference
turbines are an important factor, because
The Federal Environment Agency
capita emissions of 1 ton of CO2eq in 2050 is
technically achievable even in an industrial
in the material livingstandards. The scenario
assumes that on the one hand extensive use of
efficiency gains; on the other hand the complete
energy needs, i.e. also heat and fuel demand,
will be met by electricity generated from
renewable energies, especially PV and wind
energy. In order to decarbonize the heat and
transport sector, it is assumed that renewable
generated power is conversed into hydrogen,
methane and more complex hydrocarbons. As
a consequence the power demand increases
significantly.
Further researches made clear that the
37
German onshore wind energy potential was
ISSUE 2 June 2014
The studies published by the Federal
underestimated so far. Even if the determined
Environment Agency are presented in order to
a large share of the demand for renewable
Of course further analysis is needed to identify
potential is not completely realizable because
several aspects could not be taken into account,
electricity can be met by onshore wind energy
use. Thus confirms that wind energy continues
to be the most important pillar of the German
renewable energy portfolio.
initiate a timely discussion on possible solution
spaces for a future energy supply in Germany.
sensible transformation routes. But there can
be no doubt that wind energy is definitely able
to, and probably will, play the key role in future
German energy supply.
References:
[1] Benndorf R et al. (2013): Germany 2050 – a greenhouse gas-neutral Country. German Federal Environment Agency.
Background paper, October 2013. Download short version: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-agreenhouse-gas-neutral-country (Long version will be published as soon as possible)
[2] Global Wind Energy Council (2014): Global Wind Statistics. 05.02.2014. http://www.gwec.net/wp-content uploads/2014/02/
GWEC-PRstats-2013_EN.pdf, 07/02/2014
[3] Deutsche Windguard (2014): Statistik zum Windenergie-Ausbau. http://www.windguard.de/presse-veroeffentlichungen/
windenergie-statistik/, 07/02/2014
[4] Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (2013): Renewable Energy Sources in Figures.
National and International Development. Download: http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/fileadmin/Daten_EE/Dokumente__PDFs_/
ee_in_zahlen_en_bf.pdf
[5] Klaus T et al. (2010): Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply. German Federal Environment Agency.
Download: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/publikation/add/3997-0.pdf
[6] The “Regions Network scenario” is one of three “archetypes” which are used by the Federal Environment Agency to show
radically different scenarios of a future renewable energy based energy generation. A study based on a “Local energy autarky scenario”
was published in 2013, while the modelling of an “International large scale scenario” is still under progress.
[7] Lütkehus I et al. (2013): Potenzial der Windenergie an Land. Studie zur Ermittlung des bundesweiten Flächen und
Leistungspotenzials der Windenergienutzung an Land. Federal Environment Agency. Download: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/
sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/potenzial_der_windenergie.pdf
38
Research
Analysis of the “Silent
Wind Power Revolution”,
and Some Proposals to Benefit
from It within a Large Scale
Deployment Scenario
By Bernard CHABOT, Expert and Trainer on Renewable Energy, BCCONSULT.
Background: a“Wind power
silent revolution”
Wind power development will be more
and more based on the use of wind sites of
lower quality in terms of average annual wind
speed than those that were available at the
start of the large scale wind power market
deployment. Some years ago, this would have
led to the conclusion that capacity factors on
those lower quality sites would be very low.
But on the contrary, the vast majority of world
wind turbines manufacturers have recently put
on the market or announced new wind turbines
models with potential high and very high
This trend is now extended to all quality
of sites, from “5 to 10 m/s of average annual
wind speed at hub height” [2], so covering
all IEC classes 1, 2, 3 and 4. This is more than
a simple “evolution” and is not sufficiently
known by decision makers in charge of energy
policies and scenarios, and so this “silent wind
power revolution” could and should be now
taken into account and backed not only by
project’s developers and investors, but also
by governments, energy planners, electricity
markets regulators, utilities and electricity
transport and distribution systems operators.
There are many benefits from this “silent
capacity factors on sites classified as adapted to
revolution”: lower cost of delivered kWh,
of 7.5 m/s at hub height.
2035 wind energy scenario), higherfuture
IECIII class wind turbines [1], with an average
annual wind speed from 6 m/s to a maximum
more TWh delivered per GW and per year
(illustrated here by a dedicated world 2015-
39
Research
penetration rates, new opportunities for wind
turbines of IEC class 4 (typically Su > 5 m2/
to deliver huge amounts of wind energy
hours/year.
developers, including farmers and cooperatives
located in light wind speed regions, possibility
production within or near main electricity
consumption areas, and specific advantages for
grid operators: much more hours of operation
per year at rated power and less GW of peak
transmission capacity for given medium and
long term targets in terms of TWh per year
or penetration rates. So, a sound regulatory
framework should offer incentives to use those
new wind turbines models, and as an example
a potential “advanced fair and efficient feed-in
tariff (FIT) system” with such characteristics
will be presented.
The basis of the “silent wind power
revolution”: increased productivity of wind
turbines and wind farms
kW) already in tests [3]. At 6 m/s such a model
could deliver Nh values higher than 3’000
A IEC class 3 wind turbines (Vm = 6 to
7,5 m/s at hub height, typically Su> 4 m2/kW)
could deliver Nh values from 2’600 hours/year
at 6 m/s to more than 3’800 hours/year at 7.5
m/s.
And a IEC class 2 wind turbine (Vm = 7,5
to 8,5 m/s at hub height, typically Su> 3,3 m2/
kW)could deliver Nh values from 3’400 h/y at 6
m/s to more than 4’200 hours/year at 7.5 m/s.
Those values compare well with those
of IEC class 1 wind turbines (Vm > 8,5 m/s at
hub heigh, typically Su> 2,2 m2/kW)that could
deliver onshore or offshoreNh values from
3’600 hours/year at 8,5 m/s to 4’600 hours/
year at 10 m/s at hub height.
The cost competitiveness of the silent
The main performance parameters of a
wind farm are described in Table1. From an
analysis of the productivity of 47 recent models
wind power revolution
This advantage of high and very high
of wind turbines, it appears that the number of
productivity in low to medium wind speed
relationship based on the specific area Su of
and required selling price for the delivered
equivalent full-load hours per year Nhcan be
described with a good precision from a linear
wind turbines (in m2 of swept area per kW of
rated power). For a given average annual wind
speed value at hub heightVm, the two constants
of this linear relationship A(Vm) and B(Vm) are
the same for all recent wind turbines models.
Figure 1 from [2] summarizes the
equivalent annual full load hours Nhof recent
areas from those new models of wind turbines
gives also a potential low manufacturing cost
kWh. Figure 2 from [3] analyses the potential
required constant selling price (in constant
Chinese Yuan of 2014) of a typical recent wind
farm in China using new 2 MW wind turbines
with a Su value of 5,19 m2/kW against the
models of wind turbines proposed for IEC1, 2, 3
and 4 conditions, either already on the market
or to be commercialized before the end of 2015.
Those values are high and very high: even
at 5 m/s at hub height, Nh can be higher than
2’000 hours/year with high Su values wind
40
Table 1 The
wind turbines
and wind farms
parameters and
the linear model
of productivity
Research
Source: reference [2]
Figure 1 Values of annual equivalent full-load hours Nh versus specific area
Su and average wind speed Vm
initial investment cost ratio Iup (in Yuan/kW,
0,474 Yuan/kWh (5,5 EURcent/kWh) at 5,75
hub heightVm (from 5 to 6,5 m/s).
0,61 Yuan/kWh and less than the regulated
with a reference value of 9’600 yuan/kW or
1’115 EUR/kW) and the average wind speed at
Hypothesis are wind farm losses of 13
%, wind turbines availablity of 97 %, a ratio
of annual O&M expenses of 3,6 % of the initial
investment and a real weighted cost of capital
of 5,7 % with a targeted profitability index
(the ratio between the net present value of the
project on 20 years and its initial investment
cost) of PI= 0.2, delivering a real project’s
internal rate of return before tax on profit of
8 %, a simple pay-back time of 9.8 years and a
discounted pay-back time of 14.8 years.
The reference required selling price is
m/s at hub height, less than the 2014 FIT
in low wind Chinese cluster of Provinces of
price of 0,5 Yuan/kWh for new conventional
power plants using sulfur-removed coal in the
Guangdong province [3].
As according to reference [4], the Chinese
wind power market, the largest in the world,
shifted already in 2011 to 45 % of IEC class 4
and 18 % of IEC class 3 wind turbines in terms
of installed GW per year, this potential cost
competitiveness is a strategic advantage for
the manufacturers of those new wind turbines
models and for projects developers using them.
This cost-competitiveness of those new
41
Research
wind turbines models with high Su values will
remain in the future. Figure 3 from [1] shows
the potential decrease of investment costs
ratios Iup and Ius (see their defintioin in table
1) of a reference IEC class 3 wind turbine with
a ratio Su = 5 m2/kW from 2013 to 2050. This
decrease will result both from the increase of
cumulated GWs delivered and from the ongoing
optimisation of those recent new wind turbines
models.
Figure 4 shows the resulting required
constant selling price of delivered kWh on 20
years from this model of wind turbine (Su =
5 m2/kW) with average wind speeds varying
from 6 to 7,5 m/s at hub height and with
Figure 2 Required selling price of kWh on 20 years for new IEC4 wind
turbines models in China
more conservative hypothesis than in figure
2 for investment cost ratio (here from figure
3 above), for discount rate (here 6 % real)
and for O&M expenses ratio (here 4,4 % of
the initial investment cost). Even with those
conservative hypothesis, the present and future
required selling prices of kWh compare well
with the ones from more conventional wind
turbines with lower Su and Nh values and
gives a brillant cost competitiveness potential
against the required price of kWh delivered by
new fossil fuels-based power plants.
Impact of the “silent wind
power revolution on potential
scenariosfor world wind
deployement up to 2035
Defining the two scenarios
In order to assess the advantages of an
“accelerated dissemination of the silent wind
power revolution”, two scenarios are defined
and analysed for the world wind energy
deployment from 2015 to 2035:
a) A “Silent Wind power Revolution”
42
Figure 3 Scenario for initial investment cost ratios Iup and Ius
of a reference wind turbine with Su = 5 m2/kW
(SWR) scenario defined by incentives given
from 2015 to 2035 to project’s developers and
investors who accept to use those new wind
turbines models with high and very high Su
and Nh values, such as for example from the
“advanced fair and efficient wind FIT system”
described below.
b) A “Business As Usual” (BAU) scenario
Research
new installed power in the last calendar year,
with a “new yearly Nh value”. Production from
new wind farms in their first calendar year of
operation is considered to be only one third
of their full year production, as many wind
turbines are installed late in the second part of
the calendar year. For each calendar year, the
resulting production from “old” and “new” wind
farms is characterised by a “yearly global Nh
value” which is of course lower than the “new
yearly Nh value” of wind turbines installed in
ther last calendar year. Figure 5 shows that
Figure 4 Scenario of required selling prices of kWh on 20 years
for new IEC3 wind turbines models
without this kind of incentives and ignoring the
advantages of those new wind turbines models
for productivity and cost competitiveness.
To assess the potential wind power
the results from this model are in very good
accordance with the 2002-2012 historical data
from reference [5].
Historical values and 2014-2035
hypothesis for the full-load hours Nh of new
wind farms in the two scenarios are shown in
Figure 6.
Historical values and 2014-2035
penetration rates in the world electricity
hypothesis for the GW of wind power in
voluntary demand side management and the
two scenarios are shown in Figure 7. Those
demand from those two scenarios, a world
electricity scenario is used here, resulting from
fast implementation of policies and measures
in favor of very efficient use of electricity in
all countries, resulting in a maximum mean
electricity demand increase of 2 % per year
and with a world electricity demand of around
36’200 TWh in 2035 compared to around
23’100 in 2013.
In order to be able to assess the impacts
operation at the middle of each year (used to
calculated the global Nh annual values) in the
values are calculated from the yearly new
installed power less the retired power of past
global wind farms after 20 years of operation at
the beginning and at the end of each calendar
year. For the end of 2020, the SWR scenario is
based on 684 GW of installed wind power in
the world, near the last WWEA’s assessment of
710 GW in operation at the end of 2020 [6].
For 2035, wind power in operation in the
of the increase of Nh values from the wind
middle of the year is 1’990 GW (2’044 GW at
wind production, calculated here from the
So, the differences in installed wind power are
turbines of the “silent wind power revolution”,
a model has been made for the annual
production on a 20 years period of operation
of MW of wind power installed each year
since 1990 and from the production of the
the end of 2035) compared to 1’778 GW for the
BAU scenario (1’819 GW at the end of 2035).
voluntarly kept small in order to better evaluate
the impacts of the increase of Nh values on
yearly electricity production.
43
Research
For information, assumptions of new
installed and retired wind power GWs per year
are in 2020 + 64 new installed GW for the SWR
scenario and minus 3,44 GW retired compared
to + 61 new installed GW and the same retired
total for the BAU scenario. For 2035, the
corresponding values are +154,5 GW of new
installed and minus 46 GW retired for the SWR
scenario and + 126,5 GW new installed (and
the same retired power) for the BAU scenario.
Results and analysis of the two
scenarios
Figure 5 yearly wind energy production from the model and
from historical data
Figure 8 shows the wind energy
production in TWh/year resulting from the
above hypothesis forNh values and global
wind power in operation at the middle of each
years up to 2035. In 2035, the ratio of energy
production between the two scenarios is 1,476
compared to a ratio of only 1,12 between
wind power in operation. This shows the huge
positive impact of the fast Nh increases in the
SWR scenario compared to the BAU one.
The differences in the global annual
Nh values are shown in Figure 9. Due to the
Figure 6 history and hypothesis for the Nh values of new
yearly wind farms
“inertia” of historical installed amount of
“conventional wind turbines” to be operated
during 20 years, the ratio between the two
values is 1,32, which is also the ratio between
the two above ratios of 1,476 between the two
2035 energy production values and the ratio of
1,12 between the two installed power values at
the middle of 2035.
Figure 10 shows the differences in
wind energy penetration rates in the world
electricity demand. From the same historical
value of around 2,8 % in 2013, the penetration
rate for the SWR scenario in 2020 is 5,9 %,
not so different from the 5,5 % for the BAU
44
Figure 7 world wind power in operation in the middle of
calendar years
Research
scenario, due to the short number of years
in terms of yearly wind power production,
in penetration rates are very important: 23,4
require many years to appear, and so it is of
left to install wind turbines of the “silent wind
power revolution”. But in 2035, the differences
% for the SWR scenario, 32 % more than the
around 17.9 % for the BAU scenario.
Conclusions from the comparisons of
the two scenarios
Clearly, there are strategic advantages
of the SWR scenario compared to the BAU
productivity and penetration rates. But the
above analysis shows that those advantages
the utmost importance that the policies and
measures to favour the fast implementation of
the SWR scenario are defined and put in place
as soon as possible in all countries developing
or in the verge to develop wind power. As
the cost competitiveness of the “silent wind
power revolution wind turbines” is better than
with conventional wind tubines, there are no
economic barriers for this implementation,
but we face a lack of information of decision
and policy makers about this “wind power
revolution”. And so it is very important
that wind power developers and advocates
demonstrate from the published technical and
economic results of pilot and serial installations
that those advantages are real and can be
easily checked and included as reliable inputs
in the design of the required new policies and
measures for large scale market deployment of
wind energy.
Figure 8 world annual wind energy production in the two scenarios
Some proposals to favour
a fastand wide spread
dissemination of the “silent
wind power revolution”
Favoring the use of those new wind
turbines with high and very high Su values
would require:
o
Information and training on the
strategic opportunities and advantages offered
by those new wind turbines for wind power
developers and investors and also for policy
makers and energy planners.
o
Figure 9 world global annual full-load hours Nh in the two scenarios
Adapted regulations for projects
authorization and permits, as the trend for high
Su values is towards large diameters and high
to very high hub heights.
45
Research
o
Adapted feed-in tariffs and other
incentives systems, giving a clear incentive to
use wind turbines with high Su values in order
to materialize the above advantages, as the
example of FIT system described below.
o
Deliver public, comprehensive and
transparent information on effective field
performance of wind farms using those new
wind turbines:
•
Actual monthly and yearly measured
energy delivery and related Nh values.
•
Project’s investment costs in order
to refine economic assessment, including
reference kWh costs calculation, in order
Figure 10 world annual wind power penetration rates in the two
scenarios
to make updated comparisons with other
reference kWh costs from ancient wind
turbines models and from different energy
technologies.
o
Assist the development and the
market deployment of those new wind turbines
by specific technical assistance and research
and development:
•
New wind energy atlas and studies
of potential use of wind energy taking into
account those new wind turbines and their high
productivity, such as the recent new German
wind atlas, see reference [7].
•
Specific studies on low and very low
wind speed sites characteristics (including in
forests and in complex terrain) which can differ
greatly from “conventional sites” historically
used.
•
R&D on optimized blades and wind
turbines designs with high and very high Su
values for all the IEC classes 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Those conditions and proposals are easy
to materialize, and can benefit from the fact
that the vast majority of world wind turbines
manufacturers are proposing or will propose
in a short delay such high Su values models
for all IEC classes, and from the evidence that
more and more investors have already chosen
46
them for projects in both regulated and non
regulated wind power markets, proving that
those projects can be profitable.
An example of a market
regulation in favor of the fast
deployment of the “silent wind
power revolution”: an advanced
fair and efficient FIT system
Wind power Feed-in tariffs (wind FITs)
have been proved one of the most effective
and cost competitive regulation for large scale
deploymentof onshore wind power. Many wind
FIT systems are possible, but a special mention
must be made of the “advanced tiered wind
FIT systems” that define a selling price of the
kWh from a project according to the quality of
the site where the wind farm is installed. The
“prototype” of such a tiered tariff is the German
wind FIT implemented since April 2000 within
the renewable energy law (EEG). The French
onshore wind FIT implemented in 2001 was
inspired by the German wind FIT, but the two
systems differ, even if their basic philosophy
can be described by the same figure N° 11:
Research
Now,as the goal is to facilitate the use of
wind turbines models with high Nh values,
there is an obvious solution: to define the
calculation of the T2 tariff from the measured
Eys parameter during the first period of j years
Figure 11 principle of a tiered wind FIT system
In Germany, the two successive tariffs
levels T1 and T2 are the same for all projects,
but the period for the application of the T1
tariff is at minimum 5 years, with a length
depending from the difference between the
actual productionduring the five first years of
operation and the potential production of the
of operation ot the wind farm. In this case, as
shown in figure 12, shifting from the model A of
wind turbines to the model B by choosing this
late model with a higher Su value will decrease
the Eys value and automatically will increase
both the value T2 of the FIT and the number
of delivered kWh, with a resulting higherNh
value of the project, which at the end will be
more profitable than with the option Aof wind
turbines.
So, at the end there will be a “Win-Win
same model of wind turbine on a reference
situation”: for the electricity system as the
“equivalent constant tarif Te on n years” ,with n
projects and as the amount of delivered kWh
site defined in the renewable energy law. The
two successive tariffs T1 and T2 results in an
= 20 years.
In France, in the original 2001 wind FIT
(which was amended in 2006, but which is
still based on the same design principles),
the tariff level T1 is the same for all projects
on a fixed period of j = 5 years, and then from
year 6 to n = 15 years, the T2 tariff is defined
resulting constant equivalent tariff Te will be
lower than with a fixed tariff T1 for all wind
per installed GW will be higherdue to the use ot
wind turbines models with high Su values and
for the investors as the project profitability will
be higher than with an ancient wind turbine
model with lower Su values, but this profitabiliy
being not undue provided that the calculation
automatically from the productivity on the first
five years espressed in Nh values. Here also, the
two successive tariffs T1 and T2 results in an
“equivalent constant tarif Te on n years”,with n
= 15 years, but of course a value of n = 20 years
should be possible now.
This wind FIT was designed to favour the
use of wind turbines models delivering high
annual specific yields Eys in kWh/m2 and per
year, and this goal was fulfilled, but it resulted
automatically in corresponding relatively low
Nh values from the choice of wind turbines
with low Su values to get high Eys values.
Figure 12 principle of a wind FIT system
offering incentives to use wind turbines with
high Nh values
47
Research
of the T1 value and the T2 profiles are made
correctly.
Conclusions
This analysis shows clearly that the
advantages and benefits resulting from a large
scale use of the new wind turbines models of
the “silent wind power revolution” with high
Su values are huge both for developers and
investors of new wind farm projects and for
the electricity systems operators and energy
regulatory authorities and planners. The large
differences in delivery of clean wind energy
between the two scenarios assessed here
and up to 2035 show that it is of the utmost
importance to define and to implement as
soon as possible a general framework and
economic incentives in favor of the systematic
use of wind turbines models of the “silent wind
power revolution”. And within those incentives,
designing and implementing an advanced
fair and efficient wind FIT system such the
one described above would be one of the
more simple, efficient and easy to implement
solution. And it could participate to transform
this “Silent wind power revolution” into a
highly visible one for all stakeholders and
decision makers, with related benefits to the
decades to come.
References:
[1] “Bright economic and strategic perspectives for onshore
wind power in medium to low wind speed areas”, Bernard Chabot,
WindTech International, Volume 9, N°6, September 2013.
[2] “2014: The Year When the Silent Onshore Wind Power
Revolution Became Universal and Visible to All? Evidence of
Potential Onshore Wind High and Very High Capacity Factors
On Sites With 5 to 10 m/s Average Annual Wind Speeds at Hub
Height” , online January 2, 2014 and downloadable at:www.
renewablesinternational.net/2014-the-year-for-weak-windturbines/150/435/75726/
[3] ”China at the Forefront of the “Silent Wind Power
Revolution”, on line April 23, 2014 and downloadable as PDF
at: www.renewablesinternational.net/chinas-silent-windrevolution/150/435/78319/
[4] “2012 Annual Results”, GOLDWIND, presentation
downloadable at: http://www.goldwindglobal.com
[5] “2013 BP Statistical Review”, downloadable at: www.
bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/statistical-review-ofworld-energy-2013/statistical-review-downloads.html
[6]”Key statistics of world wind energy report 2013”,
WWEA, Shangai, April 2014.
[7] “Study on Onshore Wind Energy potential in Germany”,
Insa Lütkehus, WWEA Quaterly Bulletin, Issue 1, March 2014.
Photo: Liu Wei
48

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