Japanese gaming trends

Transcription

Japanese Video Gaming Trends
Past, Present & Future
1
Japanese Video Game Market Size
Source: Famitsu by ENTERBRAIN, INC. (Japan)
2
Japanese Video Gaming Timeline
8000
Data Collected from December 29, 1986 to December 26, 2010
100 Millions of JPY
1996:
Nintendo 64
7000
1990:
NeoGeo,
Game Gear,
SNES
6000
5000
1994:
3DO Real,
Sega Saturn,
PlayStation
PC-FX
2006:
Playstation 3,
Wii
2000:
Playstation 2
1998:
NeoGeo
Pocket,
Dreamcast
2005:
Xbox 360
2002:
XBox
1988:
Genesis
4000
1995:
Virtual Boy
3000
1989:
Gameboy
1999:
WonderSwan
2004:
Nintendo DS,
PlayStation
Portable
2000
1987:
TurboGrafx-16
1000
0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3
Arcade Gaming Sales in Japan
250
Sales/Billion Yen
200
150
100
50
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Source: JAMAA
4
Arcade Gaming in Japan
Demographics
•
•
•
•
Over 19,000 amusement arcades in Japan
3.94 arcades per 100,000 people
Arcade games played across all age groups
30% of arcade video game players over 60
Source: Amusement Industry Survey Report 2011, CAPCOM CO., LTD. (Japan)
5
Top Genres:
•
•
•
•
Board games
Horse Racing
Pachinko
Trading card games
6
Major Developers/Publishers:
•
•
•
•
•
Namco Bandai
Taito
Sega
Capcom
Konami
7
Market Drivers
67
Urbanization Growth In Japan
66.5
66
65.5
65
64.5
64
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Growth in urbanization has fuelled a boom in arcade video gaming.
Source: WORLD BANK 2011 (Japan)
8
Arcade Facilities in Japan
Market Trends and Overview
Units $Billions
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Survey on the Amusement Industry, 2011, JAMMA (Japan Amusement Machinery Manufacturers Association)
9
DOMESTIC ARCADE FACILITY MARKET
504.3
Billion
yen
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
12.0% Decrease from
previous year
Shrank for the third straight year
10
Over 101 machines
30,000
51~100 machines
Below 50 machines
(Units: Stores)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Years Ended March 31
Currently operating store fronts: 19,213
11
Spreading fear of "Swine Flu Contamination " that gave
rise to "nesting consumers" who avoided going out,
resulting in fewer customers in arcades.
12
Multi-player network games grew in popularity
13
Console Gaming in Japan
Background
•
1970s: Atari started the market
•
1980s: NEC, Nintendo and Sega
•
2000s: Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft
Top Consoles Today:
•
PlayStation 3
•
XBOX 360
•
WII
14
Consoles unique to Japanese market:
•
PSX - hybrid of PS1, PS2 and XMB
•
Panasonic Q - Hybrid of GameCube and DVD Player
•
Dreamcast Divers 2000 CX1
•
Nintendo Astro Boy Game Boy
•
Sony Gold Gundam PlayStation 2
15
Console Gaming in Japan - Portable
Background
1980
1989
1990
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2008
2009
2011
2012
Game & Watch (Nintendo)
Game Boy (Nintendo), Lynx (Atari)
Game Gear (Sega), PC Engine GT (NEC)
Game Boy Bros. (Nintendo)
Virtual Boy (Nintendo)
Game Boy Pocket (Nintendo)
Game Boy Light, Game Boy Color (Nintendo)
Neogeo Pocket (SNK)
WonderSwan (Bandai), Neogeo Pocket Color (SNK)
WonderSwan Color (Bandai)
Game Boy Advance (Nintendo)
Swan Crystal (Bandai)
Game Boy Advance SP (Nintendo)
Nintendo DS (Nintendo)
PSP (SCE)
Nintendo DS Lite, Game Boy micro (Nintendo)
PSP 3000 (SCE)
PSP Go (SCE)
Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo)
PlayStation Vita (Nintendo)
Source: COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT SUPPLIERS ASSOCIATION 2012
16
Console Gaming in Japan - Home Console
Background
1977
1978
1979
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
TV Jack 1000, 1200, 1500, 2500, 3000 (Bandai)
Visicom (Toshiba)
Video Computer System (made by Atari, sold by Epoch)
Supervision8000 (Bandai)
Cassette vision (Epoch), Pyu-Ta (Tomy)
Game Pasocom M5 (Sword / Takara)
Max Machine (Commodore)
Family Computer (Nintendo), SG-1000, SC-3000 (Sega)
PV-1000 (Casio), Osero Maltibision (Tsukuda)
TV Boy (Gakken), My Vision (Kanto Denshi / Nihon Bussan)
Cassette vision Jr. (Epoch)
SG-1000 II (Sega), Super Cassette vision (Epoch)
RX-78 (Bandai), Pyu-Ta Mk II (Tomy)
Sega Mark III (Sega)
DiscSystem (Nintendo), Twin Famicom (Sharp)
Master System (Sega), PC Engine (NEC)
Megadrive (Sega), CD-ROM (NEC)
Super Famicom (Nintendo), Neogeo (SNK)
17
Console Gaming in Japan - Home Console
Background
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2006
MegaCD (Sega), PC Engine Duo, Super CD-ROM (NEC)
Wondermega (Victor)
Laser Active (Pioneer)
PlayStation (SCE), 3DO Real (Panasonic)
3DO Try (Sanyo), Saturn (Sega), PC-FX (NEC)
Playdia (Bandai), Neogeo CD (SNK)
Super 32X (Sega)
Nintendo 64 (Nintendo), PiPPiN@Atmark (Bandai)
Dreamcast (Sega)
PlayStation 2 (SCE), PSone (SCE)
Nintendo GameCube (Nintendo)
X box (Microsoft)
PSX (Sony)
X box 360 (Microsoft)
Family Computer (Nintendo), SG-1000, SC-3000 (Sega)
PS3 (Sony)
18
Background
35
Total Console Unit Sales in Japan
30
SALES/MILLION UNITS
25
20
15
10
5
0
19
Demographics
<18 YRS
18-35 YRS
36%
Male
36 YRS>
Female
36%
44%
56%
28%
20
Preferences driven by culture and brand loyalty
•
Sony PS3 and Nintendo WII dominate
•
Xbox 360 has smaller following
•
Role playing games popular among both genders
•
Portable consoles popular due to long train commutes
21
Preferences
Nintendo WII and PS3 sales in Japan 2006-2011
Yearly Units (Millions)
4.0
3.5
PS3
3.0
Wii
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan '06
Jul '06
Jan '07
Jul '07
Jan '08
Jul '08
Jan '09
Jul '09
Jan '10
Jul '10
Jan '11
Jul '11
Source: VGCHARTZ
Jan '12
Preferences
Portable Console Ownership in Japan (2011)
50
Male
45
Female
40
35
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Nintendo GB
Nintendo GBA
Nintendo DS
PSP
WondeSwan
Source: MIKEMACE.COM
23
Console Gaming in Japan vs. America
Preferences (Top 3 Desktop Consoles)
North America
Japan
50
45
Sales/Million Units
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Wii (Wii)
Xbox 360 (X360)
PlayStation 3 (PS3)
Source: VGCHARTZ
24
Developers/Publishers
Nintendo (“Leave luck to heaven”)
•
World’s largest gaming company by revenue
•
Formed in 1889 and based in Kyoto
•
Sales of 565m and 3.4bn hardware and software units respectively₁
•
19% market share of the Japanese video game market ₁
•
Major manufacturer of home and portable consoles
Source: NINTENDO FS 2012 (Japan)
25
Nintendo-Business Model
This key strategy has enabled Nintendo
to become the most profitable of the 3 major console manufacturers
Source: ELIZABETH MENOZZI BUSINESS INSIGHTS
26
PC Gaming in Japan
Background
•
1970-1995 was the golden age of PC gaming, with NEC and Toshiba developing their
own microprocessor used on PCs
•
Advent of windows 95 led to the decline in overall PC gaming in Japan
•
PC games share of the market is constantly being eroded by the increase in social and
mobile gaming
•
PC gaming lags behind as the least platform of adoption in Japan
•
PC gaming in Japan has seen increased growth recently
•
Historically PC games are usually a variant of console games
27
PC Gaming in Japan
Background
•
Decline since mid 1990s
•
Least popular game platform today
•
Further eroded by social and mobile gaming
•
Role playing most popular genre
28
PC Gaming in Japan
Trends
•
PC gaming in Japan recently growing again
•
Shift from physical media to online
•
Shift from solo to social
•
Good opportunity for foreign titles
29
Key Statistics - Japanese Video Gaming Industry
510 Billion Yen
469.2 Billion Yen
• YoY: 9 % Revenue Decreased
Primary Reasons for Negative Growth
30
Japan vs. USA Major Console Shipments (2005-2012)
Japan
USA
Source: VGCHARTZ
31
Japan vs. USA Hardware Shipments (2007-2011)
USA Hardware Year-Over-Year Comparison
10M
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Units Sold
8M
6M
4M
2M
OM
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Japan Hardware Year-Over-Year Comparison
3500K
3000K
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Units Sold
2500K
2000K
1500K
1000K
500K
OK
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Source: VGCHARTZ
32
Market Value of
Online Game Content in Japan
33
20%
Japanese Market Share Based on
Actual Sales FY 2011
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Nintendo
Namco
Bandai
Capcom
Square-Enix Pokemon
Konami
Sega
SCE
TECMO
KOEI
GAMES
Level Five
Others
34
Japanese Gaming Demographics
Japanese gamers are predominantly male.
40% are female with interests in SNS and
arcade games.
Age range of hardcore gamers are between
16-45.
Older women are increasing involved in
playing especially arcade games.
Source: Digi-Capital Investment Review 2012, SERKANTOTO.COM
35
Japanese vs. US Video Gaming
• Realism vs. Fantasy (self escapism vs. self
expression)
• Genre differences e.g. RPG
• Philosophy (symbolic world, emphasis on diligence
and tasks, exotic settings)
• Huge infusion of Anime/Manga in Japanese games
• Need for console customization
36
Japanese User Preferences: Genre
Top – 3 Genres In Japanese Video Game Industry in 2010
1. ACTION
• Market Share: +16.3% w.r.t 2009 = 42.1%
• 26.468 million copies sold
2. RPG
• Market Share: 24.30 %
3. OTHERS
• Market Share: 9.40%
37
Market Share in Percentiles
38
Best Selling Games in Top – 3 Genres
• Monster Hunter
Portable 3rd
• 3.48M copies sold
• Pocket Monster
Black/White
• 4.914M Copies Sold
• Tomodachi
Collection.
• Wii Party
ACTION
RPG
OTHER
39
Platform Usage in Japan
What portable game console do
they currently use the most
MALE
?
FEMALE
10.00%
19%
Playstation
Portable PSP
47%
34%
Playstation
Portable PSP
27.40%
Nintendo DS
Lite
Nintendo DS Lite
Nintendo DS
52.20%
Nintendo DS
Source: NET ASIA CO., LTD.
40
?
How often do they use game consoles
11%
12%
37%
Less than 1 day a week
Every day
2/3 days a week
4/5 days a week
1 day a week
15%
25%
41
How long do they use the
console for videogames per day
?
14%
29%
1 hour during weekdays
Less than 15 minutes
17%
Almost 2 hours
Almost 30 minutes
More than 5 hrs/day
18%
22%
42
How long do they use the console for
videogames per weekends
?
10.30%
21.60%
1 hour
3 hour
2 hour
18.10%
More than 5 hours
18.50%
43
If there is any variation in the frequency and
time of playing videogames with portable
consoles compared with a year ago
22.20%
?
Increased
Decreased
33.90%
44
Where do they use portable game consoles
?
50.40%
My Room
Living Room
81.50%
45
Survey brought out …
Train
6.50%
14.20%
10.30%
Friend's/
Acquaintance's
house
Outside Home
11.60%
Car
Most people use their portable game consoles at home……!
46
Japanese User Preferences:
Gaming Platforms Ranking W.R.T Sales
Console Sales in Japan during FY2011
4500000
4000000
Number of consoles sold
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Nintendo 3DS
Sony PSP
Sony
Nintendo Wii Nintendo DS Playstation
Playstation 3
Vita
Xbox 360
http://goo.gl/H4rLD
47
Top Selling Games
in Japan During FY2011
1,200,000
Number of copies sold
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Mario Kart 7
(Nintendo
3DS)
Super Mario
3D Land
(Nintendo
3DS)
Monster
Hunter
Portable 3rd
(Nintendo
3DS)
Monster
Hunter 3G
(Nintendo
3DS)
Final Fantasy Final Fantasy
XIII-2 (Sony Type-0 (Sony
PS3)
PS3)
http://goo.gl/H4rLD
48
Top Publishers in
Japanese Video Gaming Industry
2011 Ranking
Publisher
2011 Combined Unit
Sales
Share
1
Nintendo
10,667,868
(Down)
20.8%
2
NAMCO BANDAI
Games
8,377,529
(Up)
16.3%
3
CAPCOM
4,802,106
(Down)
9.4%
4
SQUARE ENIX
4,725,621
(Down)
9.2%
5
KONAMI
3,492,342
(Down)
6.8%
6
SEGA
2,221,138
(Down)
4.3%
17
TECMO KOEI Games
2,127,995
(Up)
4.1%
8
LEVEL-5
2,016,654
(Up)
3.9%
9
SCEJ (SONY)
1,629,310
(Down)
3.2%
10
Pokemon
1,219,325
(Down)
2.4%
Source: FAMITSU (Japan) MARKETING DATA SERVICE, Yearly Report CY 2011
49
Growth Trends in Japan 2000-2011
Japan Video Game Market Value History.
8,000.0
Software
Hardware
7,000.0
100 Million of JPY
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: FAMITSU (Japan) GAMING RESEARCH 2011
50
Social/Mobile Gaming in Japan
Background
•
Increasing use of mobile phones
since early 1990s
•
Social gaming market worth $3.26bn
in 2011 (y-o-y growth of 80%)
•
Early 2000s:
•
Expected to surpass domestic
console sales by 2014
• Upswing in mobile gaming
• Popular arcade titles ported to mobile
•
Mobile phones no. 1 platform for
social/mobile gaming today
Source: MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND COMMUNICATIONS (Japan)
51
Recent Social/Mobile Gaming
Developments in Japan
Background
GREE partners with
Chinese IT giant
Tencent
DeNA acquires
Ngmoco
Smartphone's
Version of
"Mixi" launched
May 10
Jun 10
DeNA expands
Smartphone services
worldwide
GREE launches
paid for service
on Iphone
Jul 10
Capcom releases new
"Monster Hunter" social
game for Mobage
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Mixi announces new platforms
"Mixi Plugin" and "Mixi Graph API"
Dec 10
GREE acquires
100% ownership
of Openfeint
GREE starts providing "Tsuri-Sta"
and "Pirate Kingdom Columbus"
to IPhone and Android
Jan 11
Feb 11
GREE sets up its first
US based subsidiary
Mar 11
Apr 11
DeNA rebrands from
"Mobage Town" to
"Mobage"
“Yahoo Mobage” hits 3 million users
DeNA partners with Japanese mobile
telecom major NTT Docomo
Source: DIGICAPITAL INVESTMENT REVIEW 2012
52
Japan’s Social Game
Market Size in FY2011
US$5.4 billion
US$3.6 billion
Japan’s Entire Online
Game Market
Japan’s Social Game Market on
PCs and Mobile Devices
53
Japan’s Social Game
Market Size in FY2011
Smart Phones
US$8.3 billion
(Excluding Mobile Commerce)
Feature Phones
US$1.0 billion
(Excluding Mobile Commerce)
54
Business Model in
Japanese Mobile Content Market
4.4 billion dollars
generated by the
"sell-out" model
Trend shifting from Sell-out
Model to Freemium Model
Out of 4.4 Billion USD,
63.5% was contributed by
the "Freemium" model,
which grew 28.2% over
the previous year.
55
Background
Mobile Revenue/Phone category (2011)
3
2.65
USD/billions
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.61
0.5
0
Feature Phone
Smart Phone
Source: JAPAN MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND COMMUNICATIONS 2012
56
Background
Forecast for # of Paying Social Games Players in Japan
6.2
5.98
6
5.86
Millions
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.27
5.2
5
4.8
2011
2012
2013
Source: MITSUBISHI UFJ MORGAN STANLEY 2011
57
Forecast for Average Revenue per Paying Users (ARPPU) in Japan
$60.00
$53.03
$47.42
$50.00
$42.18
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
2011
2012
2013
Source: MITSUBISHI UFJ MORGAN STANLEY 2011
58
USD
Background
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
$86.35
$61.30
36.0981
$34.97
$19.27
$12.34
$13.53
$31.92
$32.86
$16.19
$9.22
$10.97
Male Female Male Male Male Male Male Female Female Female Female Female
15-19 16-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59
Gender/Age
Source: ENTERBRAIN INC. (Japan) 2011
59
Background
100.0%
Gaming Use of SNS Platform
by Device Type in Japan (2011)
90.0%
80.0%
94.2%
75.2%
70.0%
62.9%
60.0%
53.2%
50.0%
42.0%
40.4%
40.0%
30.0%
32.8%
28.5%
22.7%
20.9%
20.0%
10.0%
4.5%
0.0%
Tablet
PC
4.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Mobage
GREE
Mixi
PC
Tablet
Feature Phone
Smartphone
PC
Tablet
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Feature Phone
Smartphone
PC
Tablet
Feature Phone
Smartphone
0.0%
Facebook
Source: ENTERBRAIN INC. (Japan) 2011
60
Current Trends
• Mobile games:
• Downloaded as Apps on smartphones
• Preinstalled on feature phones
• Convergence of social and mobile gaming
• Feature phones market share declining
• Smartphones, led by Android, taking the lead
• Dominant players:
• Mixi
• GREE
• DeNA (Mobage)
61
Forecast of SNS users in Japan
Growth in SNS adoption in Japan is expected to impact on gaming!
60
50
40
44.7%
50.7%
47.8%
39.5%
30
20
10
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: STATISTA
62
90
81.7%
Japan
80
70
Mobile Users Activity in Japan (2011)
United States
75.2%
66.8%
59.3%
60
50
40
Europe
40.1%
31.1%
24.9%
30
43.7%
38.5%
42.3%
34%
25.8%
20
10
0
Sent SMS
Used app
Used browser
Mobile media usage
(browsing the internet,
using apps, downloading
content)
Source: STATISTA
63
Background
70
60
Percentage of Mobile Internet Users using browsers on mobile devices (2011)
59.3
50
40
34
30
25.8
20
10
0
Japan
USA
Europe
Source: OFCOM (Office of Communications UK )
64
OS share of market
Japan Smartphone/Feature phone Penetration
(2011)
Feature Phone
SmartPhone
44.9%
55.1%
Source: COMSCORE MOBILENS 2011
65
OS share of market
Japan Smartphone Market Share by OS (2011)
0.2 0%
Android
IOS
0.3 0%
5.4 5%
RIM
Symbian
Windows Mobile
33.6 34%
60.5 61%
66
Demographics
70.0%
Male
Female
60.0%
60.0%
53.3%
52.1%
50.0%
47.9%
47.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Mixi
Mobage Town(DeNa)
GREE
Source: COMPANIES REPORTING NUMBERS
67
Demographics
60.0%
53.8%
Mixi
50.0%
43.0%
Mobage Town(DeNa)
GREE
40.0%
36.0%
31.0%
30.0%
26.0%
24.0%
20.0%
10.0%
15.0%
9.4%
7.3%
7.4%
2.1%
0.0%
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50>
Source: COMPANIES REPORTING NUMBERS
68
Demographics
Social Mobile Gaming User Activity for Japan (2011)
Active
Non Active
Non Mobage and GREE users
68%
32%
Mobage and GREE free users
69%
31%
Mobage and GREE paying Users
80%
Mobage and Gree Users
20%
76%
0%
20%
40%
24%
60%
80%
100%
Source: CA MOBILE
69
Preferences
Medium of choice for playing
social games (2011)
By Phone
1%
BY PC & Phone
From PC
21%
78%
Source: GOO RESEARCH
70
Preferences
Frequency of Mobile game
playing in Japan -% of
Smartphone owners (2012)
Less than
Monthly, monthly,
3%
5%
Less than monthly
Daily
Weekly
Never
Monthly
Never, 34%
Daily, 47%
Weekly,
11%
71
Preferences
Where they usually play their mobile devices (2011)
80%
70%
75%
70%
60%
Male
Female
50%
42%
36%
40%
39% 38%
30%
20%
20%
18%
17%
10%
10%
10% 9%
0%
In My Room
In another room at On public transport
home
Work or School
Train Station/Bus
stop
In shops/On the
street
Source: GOO RESEARCH (Japan)
72
Preferences
On which machine do you usually play games (2011)
76%
80
70
65%
60%
60
Male
50
Female
45%
40
35%
30%
30
20
15%
10%
10
12%
15%
0
Mobile Phone
Home Machine
Portable Game
Machine
Other
Don’t Play Games
Source: INFOPLANT (Japan)
73
Preferences
Which do you access Social games from more: Mobile or PC
Don’t Know, 1%
Both about the
same, 15%
PC, 14%
Mobile Phone, 70%
74
Preferences
% of population that have played mobile social game in Japan (2011)
Don’t Know
Anything, 15.6%
Have Played, 67.9%
Havent played but
heard, 16.5%
Source: CA MOBILE,
75
Preferences
Do you want to buy a
Smartphone (Mobile Phone
Users) 2011
Don’t
Know, 24%
Yes, 55%
No, 21%
76
Preferences
Do you want to keep playing
social games (Smart Phone
Users) 2011
No, 3%
Don’t
Know, 14%
Yes, 83%
77
Preferences
Top 5 Venues for Playing mobile games in Japan (2011)
Before Bed
52.0%
Free time
40.0%
During Job breaks
37.0%
At home/TV watching
36.9%
Waiting for transport/Public Transport
0.0%
29.5%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Source: CA MOBILE
78
Preferences
Top 3 Countries by Revenue
for IOS (2011)
Rest of
World,
40%
UK, 8%
US, 42%
Japan,
10%
Top 3 Countries by Revenue
for Google Play (2011)
Rest of
World,
34%
US, 45%
Japan, 10%
UK, 11%
Source: APPANNIE
79
Preferences
Top 3 Fastest Growing by Revenue
for IOS (2011)
Top 3 Fastest Growing by Revenue
for Google Play (2011)
US, 19%
France,
12%
Japan,
22%
US, 13%
Russia,
17%
Russia,
20%
Brazil,
88%
Japan,
23%
Source: APPANNIE
80
Preferences
600%
560%
Top Fastest Growing Countries in Terms of Revenue in
Apple App Store for Iphone (May 2011-May 2012)
500%
400%
300%
200%
115%
109%
100%
101%
84%
83%
63%
59%
Mexico
Korea
54%
47%
0%
Japan
Russia
China
Taiwan Thailand Brazil
Turkey Canada
Source: DISTIMO PUBLICATION JUNE 2012
81
Preferences
Mobile Social Game Players in Japan (2011)
Engineers
8.0%
School students
10.0%
Part time workers
12.0%
Office Workers
13.0%
Full time Housewives
14.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
82
Preferences
25
Japanese Social Networks Population
24
by Asianjin
Million Users
23
Gree
Mobage Town
Mixi
Mobage + Y!
22
21
20
19
18
07/31/10
10/31/10
Date
11/31/11
83
Preferences
Japan Iphone Apps downloaded by Users by App category (2011)
Games
Weather
News
U lity
Entertainment
Photos
Produc vity
Music
Business
Ebooks
Naviga on
SNS
Educa onal
Lifestyle
Finance
Health and Fitness
Travel
Medical
Sports
Reference
Other
61.9%
72.0%
42.8%
6.9%
40.9%
7.5%
30.7%
30.6%
40.1%
21.3%
33.9%
25.0%
21.9%
2.0%
29.2%
23.8%
23.8%
22.5%
23.3%
8.1%
Free
Paid
19.5%
8.8%
17.5%
6.9%
3.8%
29.1%
21.0%
6.9%
7.5%
29.2%
13.6%
12.1%
7.5%
10.1%
8.6%
10.0%
5.0%
7.0%
5.8%
5.0%
1.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Source: APPANNIE
80.0%
84
Preferences
60%
50%
45%
Top 5 Countries by
App Downloads (2011)
47%
50%
Top 3 Countries by
App Downloads (2011)
49%
40%
40%
35%
30%
35%
IOS
28%
Google Play
30%
25%
18%
20%
20%
15%
10%
10%
7%
10%
6%
5%
0%
0%
US
China
Japan
Rest of World
US
UK
Germany Rest Of World
Source: APPANNIE
85
Preferences
7
Share of Total Traffic by
Non-Computer devices (2011)
6
5
6.2
5.9
5.3
4.3
4.6
%
4
3
2
1
0
Australia
Japan
UK
Singapore
U.S.
86
Preferences
Percent of Mobile Phone users who also own a Tablet
JAPAN
5.0%
GERMANY
7.4%
ITALY
9.2%
UK
9.2%
FRANCE
9.4%
SPAIN
10.9%
CANADA
10.9%
US
0.0%
14.9%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
87
Market Drivers
• Kompu Gacha is a huge revenue driver for social in-game purchase
• Freemium business model encourages premium in-game purchases
• Integration of virtual wallets into social games
• Advertising revenue growth
• (Relatively) low development costs
88
Market Drivers
•
Increase in mobile penetration
•
Integration between mobile and social gaming through SNS
•
Increase in consumer acceptance
•
Increased availability of smartphones
•
Social gamers with moderate to high disposable income, especially females
89
“Kompu Gacha”- Revenue Generation Model
Source: SERKANTOTO.COM
90
Revenue Model Validation
35.0%
29.8%
30.0%
Kind of items purchased
with first payment in a social game
27.3%
Male
Female
25.9%
25.2%
25.0%
20.0%
21.4%
19.8%
18.0%
18.7%
15.7%
14.5%
15.0%
18.6%
14.3%
12.0%
8.8%
10.0%
10.8%
9.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Items to shorten Status/power
waiting times boosting items
Avatar Items
Gacha
Limitied edition
items
Experience
Points
Hard to get rare
items
Others
91
12 Current Social/Mobile
Gaming Trends in Japan
Present Trends
1. Most social games offer free elements coupled with
• In-game purchases
• In-game virtual item purchases
• Subscription and advertising
Source: ARKADIUM.COM
http://goo.gl/IuA7p
92
Present Trends
2. Focus on genre that supports female participation
93
Present Trends
3. Subscription and in-game item sales
94
Present Trends
4. Enhanced capabilities to up-sell, cross-sell and cross promote across media
95
Present Trends
5. Overseas acquisitions and mergers to enter new markets
96
Present Trends
6. Selling games for playing on smartphones and tablets directly via app stores
97
Present Trends
7. Virtual wallet is integrated into social games
98
Present Trends
8. Strong cultural difference between Western and Japanese social games
99
Present Trends
9. (Relatively) low development costs - popular games profitable within months!
100
Present Trends
10. Short product lifecycle
101
Present Trends
11. Different pricing strategies
102
Present Trends
11. Gaming community creates and expands content
103
Special Genres
Social Gaming Genres
PET-BREEDING
CITY BUILDING
FARMING
RESTAURANT
MANAGEMENT
104
Special Genres
Manga-based Social Games
105
Special Genres
Social RPGS
106
Special Genres
Social Dating and Love Simulations
107
Special Genres
Social Idol-raising Games
108
Special Genres
Social Collectible Card Games
Title Screen
My Page Screen
Battle Screen
109
Future Trends in Japan’s Social Gaming Industry
110
7 Future Social/Mobile
Gaming Trends for Japan
Future Trends
•
Augmented reality using smartphone features
111
Future Trends
•
Growth in Near Field Communication (NFC) adoption
112
Future Trends
•
Location-based features of Smartphone to be used in overall game experience
113
Future Trends
•
3D holograms and voice control
•
Inbuilt Projection of stored media
114
Future Trends
•
In-built Projection of stored media
115
Future Trends
•
Market fragmentation due to different operating systems (Android/IOS) and
hardware capabilities of mobile phones
116
Future Trends
•
HTML 5 will support cross platform integration and a universal App Store
117
Japan's Social Game Market
Experiencing rapid growth
Sales in 100 Million Yen
1400
1000%
1200
Sales
1000
Growth
750.3%
800%
600%
221.3%
800
400%
156.7%
200%
0%
600
747
1,171
-200%
-400%
400
-600%
200
338
-800%
45
0
-1000%
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: YANO RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
118
Potential Venue for Game Development
Key Peculiarity: Facebook Japan
Facebook Users
5 000 000
4 250 000
3 500 000
2 750 000
2 000 000
10.03
09.04
09.05
09.06
08.07
07.08
Source: SOCIAL BAKERS
119
Preferences
Forecast for Mobile Penetration in Japan (2011)
80.00
73.50
68.70
70.00
63.20
57.80
60.00
50.00
52.10
43.50
47.30
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
Source: STATISTA
120
Revenue Allocation on Social/Mobile Apps
Feature Phone Market
Publisher
Game Developer
Billing /
Platform
Mgt
Aggregator
Operator
Portal /
Hub
End
User
50%
50%
Smartphone App Store
Game Developer
70%
App Store
End
User
30%
Source: CAPCOM (Japan) ANNUAL REPORT 2011
121
Top Publishers in Japanese
Mobile & Social Gaming Sector
Source: MOBILE SOCIAL GAMING MARKET GUIDE 2011 Published by MOBYAFFILIATES.
122
Platforms
• Most users access via mobile phones
• Top platforms:
1. DeNA (Mobage Town) over 43m registered users
2. GREE over 26m registered users
• Both double as social networks and platform providers
• Used to be closed ecosystem but now open to 3rd party developers
• Rapid growth during 5 years
Source: COMPANY’S WEBSITE
123
Publishers/Developers
GREE
• A top mobile game developer, publisher and social mobile game platform
• Top 5 games developer for iPad
• Net revenue of ¥158bn₁
Source: COMPANIES’ WEBSITES
124
GREE
• GREE Mobile social gaming platform was launched in 2012 enabling game
distribution in 169 countries with English and Japanese portals
125
GREE
• Global expansion into Western market with purchase of Openfeint and Funzio
•
Integration of Openfeint into its gaming platform
126
GREE
• Formed new partnership with Namco Bandai
127
GREE
• GREE Platform support for 15 languages to be launched
128
GREE
• Revenue generation through:
•
Advertising (advertising sales)
•
Social games (paid service sales)
129
GREE
Major acquisitions by GREE includes
• Paprika (South Korea mobile social game developer)
Source: NY TIMES APRIL 2011
130
GREE
• IUGO (San Francisco based social mobile game developer)
131
GREE
• Funzio
132
GREE
Openfeint
• Social platform operating on IOS and Android
• Enables developers to add social networking features to their apps and games
• Top mobile game social platform
• Bought by GREE for $104m
133
SNS Business Model: GREE Primer
GREE Ad space
Advertising
•Banner and Text Ads
•Tie-Up ads
Advertising
revenue
stream
Avatars
GREE
Main
Window
Avatar personalisation through
virtual goods and upgrade
purchases
Social Games
Premium
Content
sale
•Free social games (Freemium)
•In-game selling of virtual item
Source: INFINITA GREE RESEARCH REPORT
134
Acquisition of Funzio (Sales and position in the market)
Sales
Rank
14
12
Corporate Name
No of applications
1st
Zynga
4
2nd
Funzio Inc
3
2nd
EA
3
2nd
TinyCo Inc
3
3rd
Admired Inc
2
3rd
Diaper Gentlemen
2
3rd
Pocket Gems Inc
2
10
8
6
4
2
0
July- Sep 2011 Oct-Dec 2011
Jan-Mar 2012
• Funzio sales grew rapidly, reaching $12m
from Jan to Mar 2012
• In April, when Kingdom Age was released, monthly sales exceeded $5m, accelerating growth
Source: DIGI-CAPITAL INVESTMENT REVIEW 2012
135
DeNA
• Top social mobile game publisher, main competition to GREE
• Net revenue of ¥42bn₁ for FY 2011
• Growth revenue was from online auctions to the present social gaming
Source: COMPANY WEBSITE
136
DeNA
• Launched Mobage platform through its acquisition of US based Ngmoco
• Has major games on Android and IOS
137
DeNA
• Global alliance was launched with Disney Studios to reach a wider market
138
DeNA
• Increased monetization methods introduced across game titles
139
DeNA
Major subsidiaries include:
• Ngmoco (California based, operates
Mobage global service)
• Gameview (California based,
publishes free-to-play games for
Android and IOS
Source: DeNA.JP/INTL
140
DeNA
• DeNA China (Mobage services in China) • DeNA Seoul (games and partnership
with Korean partners
Asia
• DeNA Asia (games and partnership with
Asian developers)
141
DeNA
• Grasshopper (Japanese mobile
game developer)
• Plus+
142
DeNA
Types of games include:
• Real Time
Team Battle (Final
Fantasy Brigade)
• Farming &
collection
(Noen Hokorina)
• Royale
(Kaito Royale,
Sengoku Royale)
• Card Battle
(Gundam Card
Collection)
143
DeNA (Mobage)
1000
917
900
# of Mobage Social Games (2012)
800
First and second party
Third Party
700
600
500
400
355
300
202
200
100
48
16
7
12
42
0
Feature phone
PC
Smartphone( Browser based)
Smartphone( App based)
144
Going mobile pays!!!
Mobile-based (GREE and Mobage) more profitable than web-based (Zynga)
Source: GUMI RESEARCH
145
Going mobile pays!!!
Though Zynga has more users worldwide than GREE and DeNA, net
income for both Japanese developers has shown considerable growth!
Source: GUMI RESEARCH
146
Reasons why GREE and Mobage monetize better than Zynga!
• Japan is a gaming nation
• 10%₁ share of Global video gaming market
• Video gaming has a huge cultural impact
147
• Japan is a mobile nation
• 99%₁ 3g penetration in Japan
• Mobile phones essential for mobile game play
• Easier to sell content on mobile devices
148
• Card battle games are popular
• About 70%₁ of top 20 games on GREE and Mobage are card battle games
149
•
Higher pay walls acceptance
•
•
Micropayment acceptance and processing through coin collection
Users are comfortable with higher pay walls to progress through game levels
150
•
Smooth and easy mobile payment systems
151
•
Focused and aggressive marketing campaigns
152
• Pre-Installation on handsets
•
Collaboration with mobile operators to preinstall games on handsets
153
•
Anonymity /virtual nature of social graph
•
•
GREE and Mobage are used anonymously
Mass invitation of friends to play/participate
154
Japanese SNS Usage by Platform
100
94.2
90
80
75.2
70
62.5
60
53.2
50
40
32.8
Mobage
GREE
0
PC
SmartPhone
PC
Mobile
Phone
mixi
0
Mobile
Phone
4
0
PC
Mobile
Phone
SmartPhone
0
PC
Tablet
Mobile
Phone
SmartPhone
4.5
Tablet
10
Tablet
20
0
22.7
20.9
Tablet
28.5
SmartPhone
30
42
40.4
facebook
Source: Research Report 2011, ENTERBRAIN, INC. (Japan)
155
Japanese SNS Demographics
Male Users
> Female users
Age Brackets of 15-19 & 20-29
156
Paid-For Usage
on Social Game Content in Japan
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
6732
4780
2207
Total
2815
2489 2727
1503
962
Male Female Male
15-19
1262
1055
Male
20-29
Male
30-39
2562
Male
40-49
719
855
Male Female Female Female Female Female
50-59 15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59
157
Video Game Usage
Among Social Gamers in Japan
Video Game Usage by Social Gamers
Non Video
Game Users
23%
Video Game
Users
77%
158
Video Game Usage
Video Game Platform belonged to Social Gamers
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
DS
Wii
PS2
PSP
PS3
3DS
Xbox 360
Others
159
Video Game Usage
Video Game Usage by Gender/Age (Social Gamers)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12.7
16.8
12.9
12.4
9.5
3.3
7.8
16.7
Male
15-19
Male
18-29
15.7
Male
30-39
8.3
Male
40-49
6.5
7
3.2
8.1
18.1
10.3
12.4
5.9
8.7
3.6
Male Female Female Female Female Female
50-59 15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59
Video Game Users
Non Video Game Users
160
Social Gaming Impact
on Video Game Usage in Japan
Video Game Usage Frequency by Social Gamers
Fairly Increased,
2%
Increased,
2.00%
Decreased,
37%
No Changes, 45%
Failry Decreased,
14%
161
Social Gaming Impact
on Video Game Usage in Japan
Social Gamers Video Game Usage Frequency by Gender/Age
70
60
Increased
Decreased
50
40
30
20
10
0
Male
15-19
Male
16-29
Male
30-39
Male
40-49
Male
50-59
Female Female Female Female Female
15-19
16-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
162
Growing Use of
Smartphones for Social Gaming in Japan
Social Game Users Mobile Usage
Smart Phones
32.8%
11.4 %
iOS
Android 20.4 %
Others 2.6 %
Mobile Phones
76.4%
163
Growing Use of
Smart Phone Usage with Social Games Play
30
25
20
27.4
20.4
15
10
8.9
5
0
Smart Phone Users
Playing Social Games
by Smart Phones
Started Social Games
by Purchasing Smart
Phones
164
Growing Use of
Feature phone users: do you want to buy a smartphone?
Don't Know,
24%
Yes,
55%
NO,
21%
165
Growing Use of
Do you want to keep playing Social Games? (Smart Phone Users)
Don't Know,
14%
No,
3%
Yes, 83%
166
Market Acquisitions (Japan - US)
Major Japanese acquisitions in US and growing!!!
•
DeNA acquired Ngmoco- $400M₁ (Rolando, Eliminate)
Source: COMPANIES’ FS 2012
167
These Japanese developers acquisitions are focused on the following:
•
Competing globally by entering the US and European markets
168
•
Diversifying of revenue streams due to recent regulations on kompu gacha
169
•
Broadening existing game portfolio
170
•
Increase in technological and design knowhow
171
Japanese Perception of
Foreign Video Games (2011)
35.0%
33.0%
31.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
20.0%
15.0%
11.0%
10.0%
5.0%
4.0%
0.0%
Japanese games far
Japanese games
About the same level Foreign games slightly
surpass foreign games slightly surpass foreign
surpass Japanese
games
games
Foreign games far
surpass Japanese
games
Source: GAMECLUB JPN JULY 2012
172
Japanese Surveyed (2011):
Is The Japanese Video Gaming Industry
One to be Proud of? (2011)
Don’t
Agree,
10.0%
Agree, 34.0%
Slightly Agree,
32.0%
Strongly
Agree, 24.0%
Source: GAMECLUB JPN JULY 2012
173
Technology used
in Japanese Social Gaming
174
New Consoles in Japan
Wii U
Media
OUYA's
Business models
Miiverse
Controllers
Graphics
4.0
175
Building a Successful
Social/ Mobile Game in Japan
• Focus on popular genres-RPG (21%)₁ and
Romance (18%)₁ are popular genres on
mobile platforms
Source: VGCHARTZ
176
• Biggest mobile OS must be adopted i.e. Apple OS and Google Android
Source: VGCHARTZ
177
• Marketing must be tied in with
local celebrities /events
Source: VGCHARTZ
178
• Maintain players with easy game play (Yasashii)
Source: VGCHARTZ
179
• Target female demographics with genre, art
and game flow
Source: VGCHARTZ
180
• Simple, colourful and streamlined UI
Source: VGCHARTZ
181
• Tie-in with major SNS
Source: VGCHARTZ
182
• Revenue and monetization strategy is key
Source: VGCHARTZ
183
Future Market Drivers/Trends in Japan
700
600
Average Revenue per Mobile Users by 2015
589.4
533.9
500
(USD)
400
Enormous potential for app/game purchase and all
related purchases are expected to grow for
average mobile user in Japan by 2015
381.6
Enormous
potential for
profit in
Japan
300
200
153.3
147.2
116
100
94.9
86.6
71.5
0
Source: IMF, GARTNER, CREDIT SUISSE
184
450
SNS Adoption Forecast for 2011 and 2014
414.5
400
Increase in social networking adoption between 2011 -2014 will lead
to revenue increase for new entrants and existing SNS
350
300
256.5
2011
250
200
2014
170.7
147.8
150
129.3
90.7
66.2
100
50
69.3
52.1
50.2
39.550.7
25.734.7
23.929.4
Germany
United
Kingdom
0
China*
United
States
Brazil
Russia
India
Japan
Source: STATISTA
185
•
Increase in growth with prediction of $5.2B by 2013 for social/mobile gaming₁
Source: MITSUBISH UFJ/MORGAN STANLEY186
•
Increased dominance of market by smartphones with Android and IOS being the
predominant platforms
Source: MITSUBISH UFJ/MORGAN STANLEY
187
•
Rise of the App Store
188
•
Increase in smartphone adoption across the
demographics
•
Increase in mobile internet consumption
•
Mobile ubiquity
•
Cloud based streaming with game play
•
Online subscription
•
Game downloads vs. retail purchase- Game
downloads is the future!
189
•
Increase in smartphone adoption across the demographics
•
Increase in mobile internet consumption
•
Mobile ubiquity
190
• Cloud based steaming with
game play
• Online subscription
• Game downloads vs. retail
purchase- Game downloads
is the future!
191
•
New video games built around upcoming games consoles
• WII U
• Xbox 720
• PlayStation 4!
• Games must target consoles
release dates
192
•
Popular genres like RPGs, Dating/Romance and Adventures must be focused on
• Localisation of content to appeal
to target demographics
•
Collaboration with local designers for inputs to ensure conformity with target
market preferences
193
• Social/Mobile games are increasingly popular than any platform in Japan
• Build on growth of mobile penetration to target unrealised market
194
• HTML 5 adoption across all mobile media
195
• Increase in MMOGs and MMORPGs participation
• Immersive 3D game play
196
• Movies and TV tie-ins / Merchandising
197
• Growth of microprocessor
technology
• Rapid advances in Motion sensing
and natural UI
198
Share of Mobile Media Users across Markets (2011)
90.0%
80.0%
76.2%
Japan has the highest percentage of mobile media consumption
which shows enormous potential for mobile gaming
70.0%
56.6%
60.0%
55.2%
49.9%
50.0%
43.9%
43.6%
FRANCE
ITALY
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Japan
UK
US
CANADA
GERMANY
199
200

Japanese gaming trends

Transcription

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