docWind 101 Half Day 1 Overview - Wind
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Wind 101 Half Day 1 Overview - Wind
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany. Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Overview of Worldwide Wind Development By Paul Gipe Wind Energy Has Come of Age Colorado California Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Montefalcone, Italy Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Galicia, Spain Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Why Now? • Wind Works Greater Reliability • Productivity Improved More Efficient Taller Towers • Costs Declined 2500 Sales Price in US$/kW Yield in kWh/m2/yr 1000 Economies-of-Scale 2000 800 1500 600 1000 400 500 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 200 Sales Price Yield 0 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 Northern Ireland 40 m, 500 kW 80 m, 1.8 MW Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Kincardine, Ontario We Know What Works . . .and What Doesn’t Eole, Cap Chat © Vortec Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2007 World Wind Capacity Megawatts (Thousands) 100 80 60 Europe North America Asia 40 20 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind Capacity 2007 ~90,000 MW North America 19% Africa 1% Asia 18% South America 1% Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Europe 61% 2007 World Wind Capacity 18,000 MW 57,000 MW 17,000 MW Paul Gipe, wind-works.org European Wind Capacity 2007 80 330 700 800 2,400 1,800 3,100 22,000 2,500 2,700 2,200 15,000 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 870 North American Wind Capacity 2007 1,800 17,000 90 70 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Energy is a Real Business US$50 Billion in 2007 O&M 4% Electricity Sales 32% Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Project Development 64% Wind Growing Rapidly 2003-2007 • Germany: ~2,200 MW/yr 30,000 MW by 2012 • Spain: ~1,700 MW/yr • USA: ~1,800 MW/yr • India: ~1,100 MW/yr • Growth: 20%-40%/yr • ~1% of World Supply Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Market Comparison Thousand MW Total 25 20 Spain Germany USA 15 Renewable Tariffs Launched Renewable Tariffs Launched 10 5 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org US-Canada Wind Market MW/Year (Thousands) 6 5 Canada USA 4 Production Tax Credit (Subsidy) 3 2 1 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Why Wind? • Reduces Use of Fossil & Nuclear Fuels • Most CostEffective of New Renewables • Relatively Benign Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind is Modular • Quickly Installed • When Needed • As Needed • Where Needed • By Anyone Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Tehachapi, California Wind is Flexible • Scale Big or Small Projects • Location Near or Far • Time Short Lead Times • Ownership Local or Absentee Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Energy’s Benefits • Clean & Green (Mostly) No SOx, NOx, or CO2 • Renewable Net Positive Energy Balance (4-6 months) • • • • Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo Does Not Consume Water Modular = Flexible . . . and Can be Removed Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Energy’s Impacts • Aesthetics or Intrusiveness • Erosion & Scarring from Roads Length, Width, Number and Slope • • • • Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect Climate? Noise--They are Audible Wildlife Habitat Disruption Bird & Bat Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Birds & Bats • Before & After Studies of Big Projects • Studies Necessary for Small Projects? Paul Gipe & Assoc. Cros de Gerand, France Birds & Bats • Serious Problem Tarifa? Altamont Pass (900-1,300 Raptors/yr) • A Concern Elsewhere • No Quick Fixes--No Panaceas Stripes & Whistles Don’t Work Altamont Pass, Calif. Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Both Small & Large Turbines • Eliminate Horizontal Perches & Roosts No Lattice Towers with Horizontal Members • Avoid Heavy Concentrations of Birds • Mortality Rate Function of Swept Area, Not Rotor RPM! Paul Gipe & Assoc. Mortality Rate • 34 Deaths in 32 years • Most in Construction • Highest Mortality Rate USA & NL • 3 with Small Turbines • 1 Member of the Public German Parachutist Paul Gipe & Assoc. Public Safety • No Passerby Killed or Injured • Ice Throw Max. 100 m 1.5 X Height Post Warnings • Blade Throw • Suicides Attractive Nuisance Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Swept Area per Household 14 Wind Turbine Area (m2)/Household (~6.4 m/s) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Texas Texas Renewable Tariffs Launched Ontario California Germany Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-Germany Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Quota-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Ontario 0 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Wind Works! Paul Gipe & Assoc.