retail market in poland. - BNP Paribas Real Estate

Transcription

TRANSACTION
RESEARCH
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND.
FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS
H1 2015
TRANSACTION
CONSULTING
VALUATION
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
Contents
Foreword .......................................................... 3
Macroeconomic Snapshot ............................ 4
Retail Market in Poland ................................ 6
Trends ............................................................... 8
Focus on Agglomerations
Warsaw ..................................................... 10
Katowice .................................................... 12
Kraków ....................................................... 14
Tri-City ....................................................... 16
Łódź ............................................................ 18
Poznań ....................................................... 20
Wrocław .................................................... 22
Szczecin ..................................................... 24
Investment Market ......................................... 26
Definitions and Contacts ............................... 27
Author:
Anna Staniszewska
Head of Research & Consultancy Central & Eastern Europe
BNP Paribas Real Estate
BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland Sp. z o.o.
Atrium Tower, al. Jana Pawła II 25
00-854 Warsaw, Poland
Tel.: +48 22 653 44 00
www.realestate.bnpparibas.pl
BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Banking Group
KRS 0000123245 Sąd Rejonowy dla M. St. Warszawy, XII Wydział Gospodarczy KRS
Regon 011890235, NIP 527-11-37-593
Capital: 14,200,000 PLN
All rights reserved. The report was prepared by BNP Paribas Real Estate. All data provided
in the publication have been carefully verified, however the authors of the report shall not
be held liable for any damage or loss which may arise from the use of the data published.
Reproducing, modifying or using any of the contents hereof without the permission of
the authors of the publication is prohibited under the provisions of the applicable law. It is
permitted to quote the contents of the publication only when clearly stating the source.
RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND. FOCUS ON 8 AGGLOMERATIONS - H1 2015
Foreword
The history of the Polish retail property market started 20 years ago
with the hypermarkets. For the past 10 years the retail sector has
been experiencing a new evolution phase: fashion oriented shopping
centres. As previously with the hypermarkets, the second cycle is
now coming to an end and the third cycle is commencing as a new
era of maturity and diversification.
Fabrice Paumelle
H ea d of R eta il
Po la nd & C E E
Together with a changing market environment and new requirements
of retail real estate players, the consumer habits are becoming
increasingly more diversified while being more demanding in terms of
retail concept offer and location.
This results in the necessity to add value to existing mature shopping
centres (through extension, repositioning and remodelling) and
implement in Polish cities new retail formats such as: high streets,
mixed-use properties and strip malls.
Now comes the time for new concepts to enter the market, which
trend may continue over the next five to seven years. Polish and
Central and Eastern European retail markets are now mature and
seem closer to historical western European standards.
In such a challenging environment and given the differentiation of
the retail sector, the advisory must be added to brokerage services.
Retailers, developers and owners of retail assets, in order to make
a smart and sustainable move, need an independent expert who will
create a difference locally. A partner that understands local changes
in retail and retail in detail.
Let us think out of the box and focus on new tailor-made solutions
that will result in achieving your competitive advantages in this
changing world of retail. Let us change the game for retail together.
3
Macroeconomic Snapshot
6
5
4
3
2
2014
2015f
2016f
2014
2015(f)
2013
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
-1
2001
1
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office), BNP Paribas, f - forecast
Monthly unemployment rate in Poland
% change y-o-y
25
20
15
10
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
2004
5
2011
The macroeconomic situation in the largest agglomerations
(above 400,000 inhabitants) has been always been considerably better compared to the national level, scoring lower unemployment rate (in most cases below 5.0%) and higher salary
levels (approx. 20-30% higher than the average for Poland).
Consequently, their purchasing power also exceeds the national rate from 16% to 80%.
7
2003
Retail sales have been following a similar pattern with an average 10-yr growth of 5%, though these are seasonally driven
and dependent on external factors. The most recent data released by GUS (Central Statistical Office) shows growth of 6.6%
at the end of June.
CPI
8
2002
The gross monthly salaries have been constantly rising,
achieving around 4,040 PLN (~€974) at the end of Q2 2015.
GDP
2001
The unemployment rate has been declining for the last couple
of quarters and in June was at 10.3%, which is the lowest since
2001. According to BNP Paribas forecasts it should continue to
fall over the next few years.
% change y-o-y
2000
Except for 2011-2012 when inflation floated between 3.0 to
4.0%, CPI remained subdued over the last 5 years ranging from
0.9 to 2.6%. Over the last few quarters inflation has been negative, scoring -0.7% at the end of June, which is a time-lag effect
of deflation recorded in Western Europe and the US.
GDP & CPI dynamics in Poland
2000
tHE RETAIL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND HAS
BEEN BOOSTED BY THE STRENGH OF THE ECONOMY
Positive macroeconomic indicators have supported retail market development over the last few quarters. Poland has recorded sustainable growth over the last decade, achieving an
annual average of 4% in GDP. In Q2 2015 the pace of economic
growth reached 3.6% and according to economist forecasts,
Poland should reach an average of 3-3.5% GDP growth in the
mid-term horizon.
9
10
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office), f - forecast
Monthly retail sales dynamics
% change y-o-y
2013
2014
2015
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
11
12
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office)
4
Map of Poland with key macroeconomic indicators
for the analysed cities
szczecin
LEGEND
407,200
542,000
8.0%
€7,215
Population of capital /
agglomeration 1
Unemployment rate 2
Purchasing Power Tri-City
POLAND
461,500
982,200
5.2%
€7,679
poznań
38,478,600
10.3%
€6,170
Warsaw
545,700
824,000
2.9%
€8,163
1,735,400
2,560,000
3.9%
€11,222
wrocław
634,500
789,761
3.9%
€8,225
MAJOR NATIONAL ROADS
HIGHWAYS:
Existing
Under construction
Planned
EXPRESS ROADS:
Existing
Under construction
łódź
Silesia*
301,800
2,161,400
4.2%
€8,089
kraków
761,900
1 034,800
4.9%
€7,337
706,000
927,200
10.8%
€7,181
* Data for capital city of voivodship
1. As of December 2014
2. As of June 2015
Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office),
GFK
Planned
5
Retail Market in Poland
At the end of June 2015 shopping centre stock (traditional shopping centres, retail parks and retail outlets)
stood at 10.5 million. In the first six months of the year approximately 183,000 sqm were delivered, of which extensions to existing assets constituted some 44%. Only one
small completion was recorded in one of the largest agglomerations. Other retail formats, mainly stand-alone schemes
(cash&carrys, electronics, household equipment stores or DIY)
add approx. 2.2 million sqm.
In terms of formats, traditional shopping centres constitute
the bulk of stock accounting for 89% of the retail volume, followed by retail parks with 9% market share. It should be noted
that over the course of the last couple of years the latter format has been gaining on importance with substantial share in
new completions, especially by expansions. Outlet centres remain the least represented category of retail schemes with 2%.
Analysing the provision of retail space by size of cities shows,
the majority of stock is located in eight agglomerations, which
have 55% of the market share. They are followed by small cites
of below 100,000 inhabitants with 18%. Mid-size (100-199,000
inhabitants) and large cities (200-400,000 inhabitants) account for 15% and 12% respectively.
Whilst in recent years the bulk of the new supply was delivered
in mid and small size cities, over the course of 2016-2018 the
trend is likely to reverse with major pipeline schemes located
in large agglomerations. This includes the 100,000 sqm Posnania by Apsys (Poznań), Unibail Rodamco’s Wroclavia, which
will offer 64,000 sqm in Wrocław, GTC’s Galeria Północna
(65,000 sqm) in Warsaw and a mix-use 62,000 sqm Forum
Gdańsk by Multi.
ANNUAL SUPPLY OF NEW SHOPPING CENTRES AND EXTENSIONS
sqm
Extensions
New shopping centres
sqm
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2008 2009
2010
2011 2012
2013
2014 2015f 2016f
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, f - forecast
Types of shopping centre formats
9%
2%
traditional
shopping centres
retail parks
retail outlets
89%
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
Top 5 completions in H1 2015
Project
Type
City
City size
GLA (sqm)
Developer
Tarasy Zamkowe
Shopping centre
Lublin
200-400,000
38,000
Immofinanz
Galeria Neptun
Shopping centre
Starogard Gdański
50-100,000
25,000
Galeria Neptun Sp. z o.o.
CH Ogrody ext.
Shopping centre
Elbląg
100-199,000
22,500
CBRE Global Investors
Atrium Copernicus ext.
Shopping centre
Toruń
200-400,000
17,000
Atrium European RE
Galeria Sudecka ext.
Shopping centre
Jelenia Góra
100-199,000
12,900
Echo Investment
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate, PRCH
6
Top 5 pipeline schemes in H2 2015
Project
Type
City
City size
GLA (sqm)
Zielone Arkady
Shopping centre
Bydgoszcz
200-400,000
50,000
ECE Projektmanagement
Sukcesja
Shopping centre
Łódź
over 400,000
46,000
Fabryka Biznesu
Retail park
Wrocław
over 400,000
35,000
Ikea Centre Group
Vivo! Stalowa Wola
Shopping centre
Stalowa Wola
below 100,000
32,500
Immofinanz
Galeria Galena
Shopping centre
Jaworzno
below 100,000
31,400
Mayland Real Estate
Bielany Wrocławskie ext.
Developer
Apart from these retail formats, high streets in major agglomerations, especially in Warsaw and Kraków, are growing on importance for both landlords as well as retailers.
Considering the size of the Polish retail market and an inevitable change in tenant-mix of shopping centres as consumer
spending patterns evolve, there is a lot of room for newcomers and emergence of new forms of retailing. Similar to previous years, in the last few quarters Poland has welcomed new
brands who decided to enter the market. These include: KIABI
(fashion), Superdry (fashion), Decimas (fashion), Colin’s (fashion), à Tab (home deco), Desquared 2 (kids fashion) and Courir
(shoes).
In categories such as multimedia, sport equipment, homeware and home accessories, shoes, health & beauty, the pool
of available retailers to fill units is limited to a handful of key
players.
Current and forecast saturation in agglomerations
shopping centre stock per 1,000 inhabitants, sqm
820
701
Tri-City
(Gdańsk)*
508519
Szczecin
891
762
555623
550600
Poznań
Warsaw
885
758
There are significant differences regarding saturation rate in
agglomerations. Poznań and Wrocław belong to the most saturated league, whilst Szczecin stock remains moderate in relation to its population.
Łódź
Wrocław
513 538
531571
Silesia
(Katowice)*
As at H1 2015
Kraków
As at 2017
*capital of the region
Prime rental ranges in shopping centres in selected cities
€/sqm/month
Warsaw
Silesia
Prime rents in the best performing shopping centres have remained relatively flat over the first few months of the year,
while landlords in secondary schemes had to adopt more flexible approach in reletting strategies. Warsaw’s prime rates,
achieving well over €100 per sqm per month are on average
double compared with other agglomerations.
Kraków
Poznań
Wrocław
Łódź
Tri-City
Szczecin
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
7
Trends
Magnolia Park
Wrocław
Developers and investors are returning
to large cities
Over 40% of new supply scheduled for opening by the end of
this year is located in large agglomerations. The trend is likely
to continue over 2016-2018, provided all the announced pipeline schemes are delivered on time. It is also worth mentioning
that the market of new-build will be again dominated by large
players such as Unibail Rodamco, ECE, InterIkea, Atrium European RE, Apsys, Multi and GTC.
Mix-use schemes provide an alternative
to traditional retail formats
As the quality of urban life advances, mix-use projects are filling the niche within city centres. Thanks to schemes such as
Ethos, Hala Koszyki, CEDET and Art Norblin (all in Warsaw),
Półwiejska_2 and Bazar Poznański in Poznań, the city landscape is enriched by new types of commercial space serving
multipurpose uses: it givies occupiers the possibility to stand
out from traditional retail formats.
Below-expectation turnover is forcing
mature assets to reposition
While prime schemes enjoy positive turnover and footfall
trends, many mature assets are faced with declining turnovers. These developments have forced some landlords to act.
The range and volume of extensions, repositioning and remodeling of mature assets, which are currently in progress
have never been so far-reaching. Forward looking landlords
have adopted wide-ranging strategies to challenge newly
built competitors and meet growing customer expectations.
This trend is set to continue over the next few years with
some 15-25% of space to be delivered from extensions and
remodelling; hence the Polish market has already entered
the modern cycle and is much closer to western European
models of retailing.
High streets are gaining in importance
with PREMIUM market picking up
With changing consumer habits and ongoing urban regeneration, high streets are back in the game, especially in Warsaw.
Many city streets with cafes, restaurants, new pubs and clubs
attract not only tourists but also significantly more inhabitants.
Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Burberry
and Ermenegildo Zegna opened their flagship stores and this
trend should be followeds, like it happened historically in other countries, where premium brands opened stores.
Polish customers are seeking new experiences and fresh
brands that are not available in the shopping centre offer.
The differentiation factor is of vital importance in modern
retailing, giving high streets the ground to explore their
potential.
8
Additionally, due to a growing number of wealthy individuals willing to buy luxury goods, there is plenty of room for
up-market and luxury brands.
E-commerce is storming Poland with
omni-channel progressing at a fast pace
Growth of e-commerce in Poland is much faster than in the EU,
recording 22.8% growth in 2013 (by turnover volume) against
14.7% in the EU (by Eurostat). With an average online shopping
basket at €539 compared with €1,243 in the EU Poland has
significant catch-up potential.
E-commerce will not replace the traditional form of retail but
has already fostered changes in the retail scene. The revolution has taken its toll on electronics and multimedia retailers who have had to shrink space occupied. Other retailers
seem to deal with it well by adopting omnichannel strategies,
offering mobile applications and choices for delivery. Poland
is going the same way as Western European countries, especially when it comes to “click&collect” points, which actually
increase retail sales in stores.
Shopping centres are becoming an important
element of the city landscape and urban life
For many visitors to shopping centres, the motivation is not
necessarily to make an intentional purchase, but to browse
and enjoy the sensory experience. They make contact with
other people as a leisure pursuit, which is a need that cannot
be replicated online. Thus rearrangements of common areas,
food courts, leisure time are necessary as shopping centres
become fully integrated as part of the city – serving as urban
space with proper social functions where people get together.
Ongoing market consolidation in the large food
operator sector is inevitable
After the merger of big corporates last year – Auchan taking
over Real - we are currently observing the largest rebranding
and consolidation process seen in years. It mirrors a similar
pattern observed in Western Europe a decade ago, the market consolidation may shortly impact non-food retail networks
such as electronics, DIY or fashion.
Investor chase for retail assets is unrelenting
There is undiminished appetite to purchase retail assets in Poland with large international players in the game. With large
lot sizes already sold, the volume of retail investments in Poland could exceed €1 billion by the year-end, as investors are
willing to pay premium for prime schemes such as Riviera in
Gdynia. Yet, they are also neglecting good secondary projects
with substantial differences in price expectations between
owners and potential buyers.
Bonarka City Center
Kraków
9
Focus on Agglomerations1
Warsaw
The total retail stock in the capital reached 1.8 million sqm
at the end of H1 2015. When considering only modern retail
space according to the ICSC, it stood at 1.42 million sqm. It
should be noted that the city has overtaken Prague in terms of
disposable income (according to GfK Purchasing Power Index
2014/2015 – €11,222 per capita). Warsaw is also a key business destination in Poland, which influences retail market.
Annual evolution of retail stock2 in Warsaw Agglomeration
sqm
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
Apart from the pipeline schemes in advanced stage, there are
more projects planned, including Galeria Młociny, extensions
of CH Janki, and Auchan Piaseczno, which will further expand
the retail offer in the agglomeration.
The term “high street” or “shopping street” includes a broad
range of retail and service activities as well as fashion. Enhanced brand image and visibility along with lack of vacant
space in prime shopping centres make high streets so attractive for new market entrants willing to mark their presence
with flagship stores. The established high streets in Warsaw
are Nowy Świat (focused on lifestyle), Chmielna (targeting
mid- and mass market) and the cluster around Three Crosses
Square and Mokotowska (driven by upmarket and premium
brands). A number of luxury retailers are interested in opening
their flagship stores there, which has been confirmed by newcomers such as Omega (Swatch Group watch premium brand)
with their flagship store on the Three Crosses Square. Fashion
brands such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Kering Group’s Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta are based in Vitkac. Lous Loake and
Manor of Elegance are located on Mokotowska Street. Others
such as Forever 21 (fashion) have expressed their interest in
the district.
50,000
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
Over the last two years Warsaw has not seen any major retail
developments and records lower density of 555 sqm per 1,000
inhabitants, which is below the average for large agglomerations of 583 sqm. The situation is bound to change over the
next 2 years. By the end of 2015 the market will further increase by 33,600 sqm (including extension of Wola Park and
new concept of Modo), followed by 178,800 sq m to be delivered over 2016-2018 (Galeria Północna – 64,000 sqm, the next
phase of Atrium Promenada and Galeria Wołomin). Extensions
will account for 18% of new supply.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres
IN Warsaw Agglomeration
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
5
50,000
DIY
Castorama
4
28,000
Praktiker
RTV Euro AGD
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
5
15,000
4
10,000
18,000
Cinema City
6
Pure Jatomi
6
9,000
Multikino
3
7,500
H&M
15
24,000
Zara
8
16,000
16
14,400
Reserved
Peek&Cloppenburg
3
9,000
C&A
7
8,400
Stradivarius
10
4,000
8
3,200
Mango
4
2,400
Orsay
13
2,340
Rossmann
17
5,950
Sephora
16
4,000
Super Pharm
8
4,000
11
3,080
10,500
CCC
21
Deichmann
13
5,850
Gino Rossi
13
1,820
Wojas
14
1,820
4
11,200
Decathlon
Super /
hypermarket
18,000
16,000
Saturn
Douglas
Shoes
2
16
Media Markt
Mohito
Sport equipment
Prime rents in Warsaw agglomeration are the highest in Poland, achieving €95-105 per sqm/month. Similar ranges are
recorded on major high streets for the same sizes.
No. of units in
shopping centre
Category
GO Sport
8
8,000
Intersport
3
3 000
Auchan*
7
84,000
Tesco
6
42,000
Carrefour
8
40,000
E.Leclerc
3
10,500
Alma
4
8,000
*Including real,- rebranded stores
1. Listed by size of agglomeration
2. Retail stock consisting of shopping centres, retail parks and factory outlets
10
The largest shopping centres (over 30,000 sqm GLA) and other retail formats
6
12
10 8
4
10
1
1
2
17
Other formats
1
Art. Norblin (mixed, P)
2
CEDET (mixed, P)
3
CK61 (RP)
4
ETHOS (P)
5
Hala Koszyki (mixed, P)
6
Factory Ursus (RO)
7
Fashion House Warszawa
(RO)
M1 Marki (RP)
3
Arkadia
Atrium Promenada
(ext. P)
Atrium Reduta
4
Atrium Targówek
5
Blue City
6
CH Auchan Łomianki
7
CH Janki
8
Auchan Piaseczno
8
9
CH Ursynów
9 Park Handlowy Janki (RP)
10 Park Handlowy Targówek
(RP)
2
14
16
Traditional SC
1
2
4
10 Galeria Bemowo
5
11 Galeria Mokotów
15
12 Galeria Północna (P)
6
13 Galeria Wilanów (P)
RP – retail park, RO – retail outlet,
P – pipeline, ext. P – extension planned
14 Galeria Wileńska
11
3
15 Tesco Połczyńska
16 Wola Park (ext. P)
17 Złote Tarasy
13
9
7
9
€/sqm/month
Prime rent in shopping
centre
HIGH STREETS IN WARSAW
lna
cat
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Zbawiciela
iej
F. Chopina
No. of existing /
planned retail schemes1
Current / future retail density
per 1,000 inhabitants1
W
Piękna
43
5
555
623
zb
Ro
4
owskie
L. Krzywickiego
a
lec
Ludna
Książęca
Al. Ujazd
kich
ec
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a
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A
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GLA of existing /
So
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l
ka
ac
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szał
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a
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Prime rent in high street
a
Hoż
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le
c
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o
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s
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€95-105
€/sqm/month
Now
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1,420,500 sqm
175,000 sqm
€95-105
8
7
Other retail format or
mixed-use schemes
€11,222
181.90%
Purchasing Power /
Purchasing Power Index2
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
11
Silesia (Katowice)1
Silesia conurbation, with Katowice serving at its capital, is the
second largest retail market in Poland, due to its high density population and wealth of its inhabitants. The current retail
stock is estimated at 1.1 million sqm, of which 80% is modern
stock by ICSC standards. Density of shopping centres per 1,000
inhabitants is 513 sqm. This relatively low level derives from
the large area covered by the conurbation.
The majority of cities within the conurbation have decent provision of modern retail space in different sizes and formats, but it
is Katowice city centre with Galeria Katowicka and Silesia City
Centre, which serve as the key hub for retailers. The cluster will
be further strengthened by the redevelopment of Sezam.
In addition to dominant regional centres located mainly in Katowice, a majority of the cities within conurbation are equipped
with retail accommodation with large projects located in Gliwice, Zabrze, Bytom and Sosnowiec and Dąbrowa Górnicza.
The retail stock in conurbation will be boosted modestly over
the next two years with only 52,500 sqm delivered. Projects
beyond 2017 include the 42,000 sqm Galeria Echo Katowice
and Ikea Centre Group has purchased land in Zabrze with a
plan to develop a large-scale project, but no further plans
have been revealed yet.
The main high streets in Katowice are 3-go Maja and Stawowa,
but due to proximity to Galeria Katowicka there is not significant influx of retailers in the area, which is dominated by services and gastronomy.
in Katowice Conurbation
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Annual evolution of retail stock2 in Katowice Conurbation
sqm
Sport equipment
Super /
hypermarket
250,000
200,000
50,000
32,000
Praktiker
3
27,000
Castorama
3
21,000
Bricomarche
3
15,000
RTV Euro AGD
18
18,000
Saturn
3
9,000
Media Expert
6
6,000
Media Markt
3
3,300
Cinema City
5
15,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500
Helios
1
2,500
H&M
12
19,200
Reserved
16
14,400
Zara
4
8,000
TK Maxx
3
7,500
C&A
5
6,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
2
6,000
Carry
12
4,800
Mohito
14
5,600
Orsay
17
3,060
7
2,800
Promod
Stradivarius
12
2 040
Camaieu
12
1,800
Monnari
9
1,800
Rossmann
24
8,400
Sephora
14
3,500
Super Pharm
6
3,000
Douglas
8
2,240
15
1,800
5
1,450
14,500
CCC
29
Deichmann
19
8,550
Ryłko
11
1,540
Wojas
11
1,430
Ryłko
9
1,260
Sizeer
6
900
Decathlon
5
14,000
Martes Sport
GO Sport
Auchan*
Tesco
Carrefour
10
6,000
2
2,000
2
2,000
10
120,000
8
56,000
11
55,000
150,000
100,000
1. Capital of the region
2017f
2016f
2014
2015f
2013
2012
2010
2011
2009
2008
2006
2007
2005
2003
2004
2002
2000
2001
1999
1997
1998
50,000
0
5
4
Intersport
300,000
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Leroy Merlin
Hebe
Shoes
No. of units in
shopping centre
OBI
Vision Express
In terms of retail chain presence, Katowice is well equipped
with a majority of brands present.
Prime rents in the best schemes range from €47 to €52 per sqm
per month and should remain stable in the short- to medium-term.
High street units values are approximately 10-15% lower.
Retailer
12
Traditional SC
Poręba
Zawiercie
Siewierz
Pyrzowice
12
TARNOWSKIE
GÓRY
Piekary Śląskie
BYTOM
14
3
ZABRZE
9
GLIWICE
CHORZÓW
Siemianowice
Śląskie
KATOWICE
5
13
6
Other formats
1
Jaworzno
2
Chrzanów
TYCHY
o
513
538
Dworcow
a
Wojewód
zk
a
iego
iejska
a
Mielęc
k
Starom
Pańki
Wodn
a
awsk
cyjna
Mł y ńska
War
sz
Szko
lna
Św.
Andrzeja
lna
Teatr
a
szki
go
wskieg
Bank
owa
a
Kośc
iu
Kordeck
ie
Chełko
zki
icz
3 Maja
pl.
Szewczyka
ego
No. of existing /
Uniwe
Monius
46
3
ński
Banko
wa
al. Korf
antego
miejs
ka
iew
Dyrek
Słowackiego
3 Maja
ck
Ryn
ek
ka
Galeria
Altus
rsytec
ka
ka
Mi
ols
11
gi
Jana
ka
ko
ls
Op
So
Matejki
wsk a
oło
ar
Stawowa
ik
Sk
Śró
d
Ch
op
ina
Rynek
a
pl.
Wolności
M
oźd
zie
3
1,109,700 sqm
52,500 sqm
GLA of existing /
So
ko
ls
sk
RAWA Park Handlowy (RP)
Fashion House Sosnowiec
(RO)
Supersam (mixed) (P)
al. R
kie
go
br
Forum Gliwice
17 Silesia City Center
2
rondo
Ziętka
Sło
wa
c
Za
Europa Centralna
9
16 Pogoria
HIGH STREETS IN KATOWICE
ie
CH Skałka (ext. P)
8
3
7
icz in high street
Primewrent
a
CH Auchan Sosnowiec
7
15 Plejada
1
€/sqm/month
€35-40
€/sqm/month
CH Auchan Gliwice
6
14 M1 Zabrze
Mikołów
centre
ck
Atrium Plejada
5
13 M1 Czeladź
15
MYSŁOWICE
Mi
Arena
4
12 Galeria Zawiercie
SOSNOWIEC
3 11
10
€45-50
Agora Bytom
3
11 Galeria Katowicka
DĄBROWA
GÓRNICZA
16
1
17
8
3 Stawy
2
10 Galeria Echo Katowice (P)
2
4
1
Mariacka
Mariacka
Tylna
€8,089
131.20%
Purchasing Power /
mixed-use schemes
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
13
Kraków
At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock in Kraków stood
at 549,400 sqm. The market boomed over 2005-2009 with
completions of Galeria Krakowska, Galeria Kazimierz and Bonarka City Center. Over the last two years, after the opening
of Galeria Bronowice by Immochan, there were no significant
projects delivered.
It should be noted that the north of agglomeration has been
developing first over recent years. This trend will continue as
the only scheme, which is under construction, the 42,000 sqm
Serenada, is located in this area. There are also plans to modernize and extend Krokus shopping centre, but no further details or timing have been announced.
After opening of Serenada, scheduled the saturation rate in
agglomeration will increase from 531 sqm to 571 per 1,000
inhabitants.
Due to the fact that Kraków is Poland’s top tourist destination, the high street market is well developed in the city. The
key areas include: Grodzka, Floriańska, the Market Square and
Szewska. Apart from restaurants, bars and pubs, there are
many mid- and upmarket brands operating within the cluster
spurred by both tourist as well as a business traffic.
in Kraków Agglomeration
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
The vast majority of international brands are present in
Kraków. The range of offer is extensive and diversified both in
shopping centres as well as high streets.
Prime retail rents in the city are in the range €45-55/sqm/
month in shopping centres and €80-90 in high streets.
Health & beauty
Retailer
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
OBI
2
16,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Castorama
1
7,000
RTV Euro AGD
6
6,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
2
2,000
Cinema City
4
12,000
Pure Jatomi
2
3,000
Kinder Planeta
3
600
Reserved
9
8,100
H&M
5
8,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
2
6,000
Zara
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
C&A
4
4,800
KappAhl
4
3,200
House
8
2,400
New Yorker
3
2,400
Mango
4
2,400
Mohito
5
2,000
Orsay
7
1,260
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Monnari
6
1,200
Promod
6
1,020
Rossmann
9
3,150
Douglas
6
1,680
Sephora
Vision Express
Super Pharm
CCC
Deichmann
Shoes
No. of units in
shopping centre
6
1,500
10
1,200
2
1,000
11
5,500
7
3,150
Ryłko
6
840
Kazar
4
800
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Kraków agglomeration
Wojas
6
780
sqm
Venezia
6
720
100,000
Decathlon
2
5,600
90,000
Intersport
3
3,000
Sport equipment
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
Super /
hypermarket
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2
1,200
1
1,000
Auchan*
4
48,000
Carrefour
6
30,000
Tesco
2
14,000
Alma
2
4,000
2016f
2017f
2014
2015f
2012
2013
2011
2010
2008
2009
2007
2005
2006
2004
2002
2003
2001
1999
2000
1998
1997
0
Martes Sport
GO Sport
14
Traditional SC
1
2
3
8
2
5
7
6
1
Bonarka City Center
2
Carrefour Czyżyny
3
Galeria Bronowice
4
Galeria Kazimierz
5
Galeria Krakowska
6
M1 Kraków
7
Plaza Kraków
8
Serenada (P)
9
Zakopianka
Other formats
4
1
Factory Kraków (RO)
2
Futura Park (RP)
P – pipeline
1
9
€45-50
€/sqm/month
549,400 sqm
42,000 sqm
centre
GLA of existing /
a
Wes
terpla
tte
na
asz
zyż
a
Tom
Św
. Kr
y
Szp
wn
ital
Flo
ria
ń
Św
.
ska
ska
Jan
a
wk
ow
Sła
Głó
ka
Sto
lars
Sie
nn
Wi
le
rudy
e
a
cz
i
lew
Purchasing Power /
śl
wi
Other
Jos retail format or
mixed-use schemes
na
go
ie
dz
.I
Św
o
ar
astiana
tla
go
St
Św. Seb
are
Die
Św. Gert
o ni c z a
Kan
o
€7,337
118.90%
na
J. S
531
571
po
iśl
ow
ar
St
elo
15
1
No. of existing /
M.
Zy
bl i
kiewicza
a
Brack
a
Lubicz
ika
M. K o p e r n
Mikołajska
Dominikańska
Bosacka
Pawia
go
kie
k
Św.
Grodzka
Zw
ier
zy
ni
ka
5
Blich
Jag
iell
ońs
ka
Wi
śln
a
ka
ńs
Grodzka
skieg
śle
ski
Św
.M
ark
a
Poselska
szew
ów
zk
óc
Wł
Pow
i
pa
zkańsk a
ncis
Fra
Stra
ka
ec
o
Retoryka
icza
w
ckie
ńsk
Smole
g
skie
. Mi
Al. A
go
udskie
J. PIłs
szew
Stra
ja
ec
Wen
Jabłonowskich
pań
Ry
ne
le
Sz
ew
ska
Św
. An
ny
Studencka
Garncars
pl
Szc.
ze
Sz
cze
wa
łowska
Kr
Po
dw
a
za
ic
upn
Lo r etańska
Al. A.
PrimeCzysta
rent in high street
zto
Radziwił
J. D
un
a
Rajska
Bas
Pijarska
aje
Ga
ck
a
iejsk
Mick
iewic
za
ka
rs
rba
ws
eli
rm
Ka
€80-90
€/sqm/month
Czar
now
Zac
isze
HIGH STREETS IN Kraków
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
15
Tri-City (Gdańsk)1
At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock in Tri-City
agglomeration stood at 688,630 sqm. The density reached
701 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants.
The last large scheme completed in Tri-City was the extension
and remodelling of Riviera shopping centre completed at the
end of 2013.
Over the course of the next few years, the agglomeration will
record a substantial increase of new retail supply due to the
pipeline projects of Forum Gdańsk and Galeria Metropolia,
which will result in rise of density to 820 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. On top of this, ECE is rumored to be undertaking an
extension of Galeria Bałtycka.
IN Tri-City Agglomeration
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
3
24,000
Castorama
2
14,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
RTV Euro AGD
9
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Neonet
2
1,600
Helios
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
2
3,000
Multikino
1
2,500
Calypso Fitness
2
2,000
Although Sopot may not have provision of shopping centres
due to its highly touristic flavour, it does have a strong performing high street along Monte Cassino with growing demand
from upmarket retailers. The other cities forming Tri-City also
enjoy relatively high demand for high streets, which in Gdańsk
primarily means Długi Targ and in Gdynia – Świętojańska.
Prime retail rents in the best shopping centres in Tricity vary
from €40-45 per sqm/month, whereas high streets are in the
range of €30-50, depending on the city.
Reserved
Fashion mixed
6
7,200
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
New Yorker
6
4,800
10
4,000
6
2,400
1,200
Mango
2
Orsay
5
900
Camaieu
6
900
Sinsay
Rossmann
6
840
13
4,550
Super Pharm
5
2,500
Douglas
8
2,240
Sephora
6
1,500
Vision Express
7
840
15
7,500
CCC
Deichmann
Shoes
12,800
10,800
C&A
Mohito
Health & beauty
8
12
Zara
Stradivarius
Fashion women
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
OBI
H&M
Given the character, population and size of the agglomeration, it cannot be perceived as one retail destination. There is
clearly an unbalanced situation – with high retail density to
the south, and relatively low saturation in the north.
No. of units in
shopping centre
Ray
9
4,050
10
1,800
1,040
Wojas
8
Ryłko
7
980
Ecco
9
900
Annual evolution of retail stock in Tri-City agglomeration
Decathlon
3
8,400
sqm
Intersport
3
3,000
Sport equipment
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
Super /
hypermarket
60,000
40,000
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
20,000
Martes Sport
4
2,400
Sportsdirect
1
1,800
GO Sport
1
1,000
Auchan*
4
48,000
Tesco
4
28,000
Carrefour
3
15,000
Piotr i Paweł
6
8,400
Alma
2
4,000
E.Leclerc
1
3,500
1. Capital of the region
16
9
Traditional SC
GDYNIA
10
7
SOPOT
1
CH Auchan Gdańsk (P)
2
CH Osowa
3
Forum Gdańsk (P)
4
Galeria Bałtycka
5
Galeria Metropolia (P)
6
Galeria Morena (ext. P)
7
Klif Gdynia
8
Matarnia
9
Port Rumia
10 Riviera
Other formats
3
1
2
2
3
4
Fashion House Gdańsk
(RO)
Morski Park Handlowy
(RP)
Nowe Centrum Sopotu (P)
5
8
1
€40-45
GDAŃSK
6
3
1
2
€/sqm/month
centre
688,630 sqm
117,000 sqm
GLA of existing /
HIGH STREETS IN Gdańsk, Gdynia and Sopot
Grzą
Tand
ska
eta
Dzia
na
Dłu
gie
Pob
rzeż Bosma Tokars
ka
ńska
e
Grob
la II
Złotników
za
iew
Ła
ego
ski
ow
k
j
aCentrum
a
rsk
A. M Haffnera
Mo
y
zaw
Krzywy
Domek
era
ka
js
Wo
ls
Po
go
ika
mixed-use schemes
Purchasing Power /
kie
Dworcowa
€7,679
124.40%
tów
s
Pia
Al.
h
F. C
na
opi
701
820
a
kow
Par
zka
ald
nw
d j a zd
na
€40-50
€/sqm/month
Gru
ego
ski
e
obi
3
aS
Po
ieln
a
etn
icza
Kal
icz
a
wn
Stąg
Chm
Lekt
ykar
ska K
ozia
Kles
La
Koł
odz tarn
iejs ia
ka na
ka
Tk
ac
Zby
tki
Poc
zto
wa
ary
a
Garb
Legionów
Dług
i Tar
g
Jan
Legionów
Górna
cka
lebn
ic k a
rs
Wa
ojańs
ka
gen.
J. Bem
a
rna
Ch
No. of existing /
Maria
ów
Święt
€/sqm/month
ŚwPrime
. Ducrent
ha in high street
sin o
Cas
nte
o
go
M
kie
łas
terów
u
P
Boha
. K.
gen
szki
T. Kościu
a
Oga
Szero
ńc
go
bp. Dominik
Dług
a
15
4
€35-45
ka
na
affn
ckie
te
Śląska
Piw
J.J. H
inie
J. W
esterplat
ńców W
Obro
egłości
M. Reja
10
per n
M. Ko
€/sqm/month
w
al. Niepold
€30-40
SOPOT
Święto
jańska
ka
sta
Podwale
Al. J. P
iłsuds
kiego
Partyza
ntó
Za
Mu
ram
i
Szero
w
Po
Żwirki
i Wi
gur
y
J.Kiliń s
kiego
Okopow
IV
Obrońców Wy
brze ż
a
R. Tr
augut
taI.
Kra
sic
kie
g
Kielecka
Węg Targ
low
y
Święt
ojańs
ka
A.Abra
hama
Armii K
ra jow
ej
J.Sło wackiego
a
awka
Warsz
Pomorska
Śląsk
ska
Pole
lska
Podo
3 M a ja
CH 10 Lutego
Kwiatkowski
S. Batorego CH Batory
GDAŃSK
Wały Ja
giellońskie
I. K
ras
ick
ieg
Władysław
a
GDYNIA
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
17
Łódź
Since 2012, when the first phase of Ptak Fashion City was completed, there were no new deliveries in Łódź agglomeration.
For over a decade Manufaktura has been holding a leading
position on the local market.
At the end of June 2015 the total retail stock was estimated
at 510,350 sqm, which equals 550 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants.
This indicator shall increase to 600 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants
after the opening of Sukcesja (34,000 sqm GLA) planned for
Autumn 2015.
Over the next few years, there are no significant new retail
projects in the agglomeration planned. Given the fact that
many of the shopping centres operating in the city are relatively old, some remodellings can be expected.
Range of prime rents in Łódź is from €41-46 per sqm/month,
while high street units can be leased for €30-40.
Piotrkowska is definitely the leading high street in the city,
however, it primarily serves as a promenade with the offer
dominated by restaurants, cafes, bars and pubs. Once Nowe
Centrum Łodzi is completed, the area may develop further with
complementary offer to Manufaktura and Galeria Łódzka.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Łódź
Agglomeration
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Retailer
Castorama
3
21,000
2
20,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Bricoman
1
5,000
RTV Euro AGD
6
6,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
1
1,000
Cinema City
1
3,000
Helios
1
2,500
Pure Jatomi
1
1,500
H&M
6
9,600
Reserved
8
7,200
Zara
3
6,000
Peek&Cloppenburg
1
3,000
TK Maxx
1
2,500
C&A
2
2,400
Carry
6
2,400
KappAhl
3
2,400
New Yorker
3
2,400
Mohito
5
2,000
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Orsay
5
900
Monnari
4
800
Sinsay
5
700
Mango
1
600
Rossmann
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Łódź agglomeration
Shoes
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Leroy Merlin
Super Pharm
Health & beauty
No. of units in
shopping centre
10
3,500
3
1,500
1,250
Sephora
5
Vision Express
5
600
Yves Roche
6
360
Ziaja
5
300
CCC
11
5,500
3,150
Deichmann
7
Kazar
3
600
Ryłko
4
560
sqm
Ray
3
540
120,000
Ecco
5
500
GO Sport
3
3,000
100,000
Decathlon
1
2,800
1,000
Sport equipment
80,000
60,000
40,000
Super /
hypermarket
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
20,000
Intersport
1
Martes Sport
1
600
Auchan*
2
24,000
Tesco
3
21,000
Carrefour
3
15,000
E.Leclerc
1
3,500
Piotr i Paweł
2
2,800
Alma
1
2,000
18
2
€41-46
Traditional SC
€/sqm/month
centre
3
2
1
Galeria Łódzka
2
Manufaktura
3
M1 Łódź
4
Pasaż Łódzki
5
Port Łódź
6
Sukcesja (P)
7
Tulipan
Other formats
7
Ptak Outlet (RO)
2
Vis a Vis (RP)
P – pipeline
1
4
1
6
5
510,350 sqm
46,000 sqm
1
GLA of existing /
HIGH STREETS IN ŁÓDŹ
ka
sy
er
skiego
i
J. Matejk
tec
wa
skiego
ga
S. Kopciń
Wierzbo
A. Kamiń
S. Sterlin
POW
jowa
Tramwa
Tkacka
iego
a
o
skieg
Al. Piłsud
a
mixed-use schemes
na
lnia
iego
dza
yczn
Fabr
Przę
a
Targow
lińsk
J. Ki
ry
Wigu
Wydawnicz
S. Kopcińsk
Nowa
lniana
Przędza
Wysoka
iego
ki
icza
Sienkiew
1Orla
Wodna
a
Targow
lińsk
a
skiego
Al. Piłsud
No. of existing /
icza
Miedzian
za
zy
iar
Żwirki
Nawrot
Nawrot
T. Kościusz
ókn
Wł
Al. A
a
J. Tuwim
J. Ki
a
15
1
Zelwerow
Nowe Centrum Łodzi
(planned)
Sienkiewic
Al.
icza
Prime rent in high street . Mickiew
towicza
G. Naru
icza
Narutow
J. Tuwim
rie
Cu
eji
k
amenhofa
a L. Z
ws
do rnik
o
ł
e
Sk
op
M. M. K
€30-40
€/sqm/month
a
S. Jaracz
tta
R. Traugu
Struga
a
Wólczańsk
Gdańska
St
iego
r
a
ug
i 1905 r.
ia
ier
6S
G.
ki
ia
pn
Wschodn
6 Sierpnia
T. Kościusz
Zielona
a
Wólczańsk
Gdańska
1M
al.
Zielona
ska
Piotrkow
aja
Zachodnia
Le
a
k
Pomors
J. Kilińsk
Gdańska
A. P
al. 1 Maja
skiego
Więckow
skiego
S. Żerom
Lipowa
skiego
S. Pogonow
ich
Kaniowsk wa
Strzelców
o
28 Pułku
Łąk
iego
Żeligowsk
gio
Północna
Rewolucj
róchnika
w
nó
Solna
Karskiego
Sre
o l b o r s ka
Północna
wa
Ogrodo
go
e
i
rsk
cza
iel
.M
ska CmentarnRa
yń
brz
W
2
Un
iw
ska
now
Drew
550
600
€7,181
116.40%
Purchasing Power /
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
19
Poznań
The provision of modern retail stock in the Poznań agglomeration totals 627,610 sqm, contained in 19 schemes.
Presence of selected retailers in shopping centres IN Poznań
Agglomeration
Category
The current density is 762 per 1,000 inhabitants, which is the
highest rate among the large Polish cities. By the end of 2016,
after the opening of Posnania 100,000 sqm offering, the ratio will increase to 891. The already tough competition among
landlords will be strengthened further. Some retailers may
also suffer the cannibalisation effect of oversupply and potential fall decrease of turnover per sqm.
Taking into consideration the strong socio-economic background of the city, the retailer pool is very well developed
and the vast majority of brands operating in Poland are also
present in Poznań.
The city also has some provision of high street units along
Półwiejska, as well as the untypical formats of Bazar Poznański
or Półwiejska_2 that accommodate niche retail space.
Retail rents in Poznań’s shopping centres and high streets are
relatively similar and on average are in the range €35-45 per
sqm/month.
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Retailer
Leroy Merlin
3
30,000
2
18,000
OBI
1
8,000
Castorama
1
7,000
RTV Euro AGD
9
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
2
2,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500
3,000
Cinema City
1
Kinder Planeta
3
600
H&M
6
9,600
Reserved
8
7,200
Zara
3
6,000
TK Maxx
2
5,000
New Yorker
5
4,000
KIK
3
3,000
Mohito
6
2,400
Mango
2
1,200
Stradivarius
3
1,200
Orsay
6
1,080
Promod
6
1,020
Monnari
5
1,000
Rossmann
Shoes
Annual evolution of retail stock in Poznań agglomeration
sqm
Sport equipment
120,000
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Praktiker
Super Pharm
Health & beauty
No. of units in
shopping centre
12
4,200
4
2,000
Sephora
8
2,000
Douglas
6
1,680
Hebe
3
870
CCC
11
5,500
3,600
Deichmann
8
Gino Rossi
6
840
Ryłko
6
840
Ecco
7
700
Decathlon
3
8,400
Intersport
4
4,000
Sportsdirect
2
3,600
GO Sport
2
2,000
Martes Sport
2
1,200
100,000
Auchan*
2
24,000
80,000
Carrefour
3
15,000
14,000
Super /
hypermarket
60,000
40,000
Tesco
2
Alma
1
2,000
Piotr i Paweł
5
7,000
Biedronka
2
1,400
20,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
0
20
€45-50
Traditional SC
€/sqm/month
centre
2
4
1
CH Auchan Komorniki
2
3
CH Auchan Tarnowo
Podgórne
Galeria Malta
4
Galeria Pestka
5
King Cross Marcelin
6
M1 Poznań
7
Poznań City Center
8
Posnania (P)
9
Stary Browar
Other formats
2
5
7
9
3
1
Factory Poznań (RO)
2
Kupiec Poznański
3
Park Handlowy IKEA (RP)
8
3
1
P – pipeline
6
627,610 sqm
106,600 sqm
1
GLA of existing /
Wronie
cka
ska
Szew
Klaszto
rna
Ślusarska
Garbary
Rynkow
a
Wrocław
ska
Szkoln
a
a
ow
Łąk
Garba
ry
Ryb
aki
Długa
ka
elec
Strz
9
Kw
ia
to
w
a
Zielona
aki
Ryb
ika
ern
Kop
Przemysłowa
Ko
ści
usz
ki
Wodna
Gołębia
ka Szymańskiego
Po
Wyso
dg
St
órn
rz
ele
a
ck
a
2
Zielona
Ogrodo
wa
Woźna
Za Bramką
Rata
jczak
a
Po
dg
ór
na
St
rz
ało
wa
rs
ka
Galeria MM
PÓŁWIEJSKA_2
al. Kr
óla Pr
zemy
sła II
Stary R
ynek
Kozia
Bazar
Poznańskizia
Święty
Marcin
Powstańców Wielkop
olskic
h
Mat
yi
Sieroca
Ludgardy
Al. Marcinkowskiego
Paderewskiego
ary
Piek
i
szk
ciu
Koś
i
ośc
egł
odl
iep
ja N
ale
Towaro
wa
plac Wolno
ści
Mokra
Dominikań
ska
Kramarsk
a
Stary Ryn
ek
Wielka
Ko
Świę
ty Ma
rcin
ca
rn
Ga
Tacza
ka
plac Wolno
ści
23 L
uteg
o
Kr
ys
iew
Półw
icz
iejsk
a
a
Gwar
na
Nowowiejs
kiego
Fre
dr
y
go
kie
ńs
y
ż
iel
M
27 Grudnia
23 Lutego
Kantak
a
Kościuszk
i
aleja N
iepodle
głości
€35-45
€/sqm/month
pl. C. Ratajskiego
aja
3M
niawskiego
Wie
HIGH STREETS IN Poznań
mixed-use schemes
19
2
No. of existing /
762
891
€8,163
132.30%
Purchasing Power /
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
21
Wrocław
The retail market in Wrocław agglomeration is among the
most mature in Poland, with extensive provision of modern
schemes, which in total have 598,760 sqm of space. It translates into 758 per 1,000 inhabitants, which is the second highest density rate amongst the largest cities in Poland.
This highly competitive environment will become even tougher
for both landlords and retailers as the market will be further
expanded over the next two years by two extensions and one
new scheme totaling 100,000 sqm.
Wrocław, which is both a good tourist as well as business
destination, has relatively well-developed high streets along
Świdnicka, Oławska and Market Square. This market segment
has been gaining in importance with substantial retailer demand for this type of retail and service accommodation.
Retailers have to be prepared to pay on average from €42 to 47
per sqm for a prime retail unit in a well-performing scheme.
The best high streets rents are in the range of €35-40 per sqm
per month.
IN Wrocław Agglomeration
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Retailer
Annual evolution of retail stock in Wrocław Agglomeration
sqm
160,000
Sport equipment
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Castorama
4
28,000
OBI
2
16,000
Leroy Merlin
1
10,000
Praktiker
1
9,000
Saturn
2
6,000
RTV Euro AGD
5
5,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Media Expert
4
4,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Pure Jatomi
3
4,500
Cinema City
1
3,000
Helios
1
2,500
Kinder Planeta
9
1,800
TK Maxx
3
7,500
H&M
5
8,000
Zara
4
8,000
Reserved
7
6,300
New Yorker
5
4,000
C&A
3
3,600
Mohito
7
2,800
Mango
3
1,800
Stradivarius
4
1,600
Orsay
8
1,440
Promod
5
850
Tally Weijl
3
600
3 150
Rossmann
9
Sephora
7
1,750
Super Pharm
3
1,500
Douglas
5
1,400
Vision Express
8
960
10
5,000
4,050
CCC
Shoes
No. of units in
shopping centre
Deichmann
9
Ryłko
6
840
Kazar
4
800
Gino Rossi
5
700
Wojas
5
650
Decathlon
3
8,400
Intersport
3
3,000
GO Sport
2
2,000
Sportsdirect
1
1,800
Tesco
4
28,000
Auchan*
2
24,000
10,500
E.Leclerc
3
Piotr i Paweł
4
5,600
40,000
Alma
1
2,000
20,000
Biedronka
2
1,400
Super /
hypermarket
60,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
0
22
Traditional SC
€42-47
€/sqm/month
centre
4
1
Arkady Wrocławskie
2
Borek
3
4
CH Auchan Bielany
Wrocławskie
Korona
5
Magnolia Park (ext. P)
6
Pasaż Grunwaldzki
7
Renoma
8
Wroclavia (P)
Other formats
5
6
1
4
1
7
598,760 sqm
100,000 sqm
3
Kraińskiego
K. Janickiego
Z. Kr
asiń
skieg
o
go
Knia
ziew
icza
k ie
H. Ko
łłątaja
Podwale
Wierzb
owa
Nowa
Dworc
owa
Staw
owa
Piłsu
dski
ego
Gwar
na
Kom
and
ors
ka
1
Świd
nick
a
W. B
ogus
ławs
kieg
Nasy
o
pow
a
Swo
bod
na
Kościu
szki
Pod
wal
e
Dą
br
ow
s
Teatraln
a
Czysta
7
Bern
ardy
ńska
Szew
ska
Łacia
rska
Bisk
upia
Krowia
Krawie
cka Ś
w. Wit
a
Św. Kata
rzyny
Kuźn
icza
Odrz
ańsk
a
Świd
nicka
Widok
Menn
icza
Podwale
Kośc
iuszk
i
Ślą
sk
ich
ia
ys
St
Pił
su
ds
kie
go
Po
ws
tań
có
w
Kole
jow
a
Zi
eli
ńs
kie
go
Pszenna
Owsiana
ka
ńs
zy
r
e
Lubu
ska kwi
S
sta
Pro
Żyt
nia
Jęc
zm
ien
na
a
el
w
Le
Jana Ewangelisty
Ośw
ięcim
skich
Świe
bodz
ka
a
ow
lej
Ko
ka
yńs
bisz
Gra
Po
dw
ale
GLA of existing /
pl. Dominikański
Oław
ska
P. Skar
gi
ta
os
Pr
Są
do
wa
a
zow
Tęc I. P
aw
łow
a
Kr
up
nic
za
Po
dw
ale
Ofia
r
zim
ierz
aW
ielki
ego
pl.
Wo
lno
ści
pl. N
owy Tar
g
Wita
Stwo
sza
Kurz
y Tar
g
Ryne
k
Ka
Zam
kow
a
Podwale
P. Wł o
ląt
Or
pl.
sk
ich
pl. S
olny
dk
ow
ica
Kotla
rsk
Igieln a
a
Ryne
k
Ryne
k
Pasaż
Rusk
a
Lw street
Prime rent in high
ow
a
tnicz
Robo
Św. M
ikoła
ja
Świd
nicka
Rus
ka
ikołaja
Św. M
Kiełb
aś
nicza
Naby
cińsk
a
Sok
oln
icz
a
HIGH STREETS IN Wrocław
€35-40
€/sqm/month
Futura Park (RP)
Park Handlowy Bielany
(RP, ext. P)
Sky Tower Wrocław
(mixed)
P – pipeline, ext. P – extension pipeline
3
Ziemo
wita
Factory Wrocław (RO)
2
3
4
8
2
2
1
mixed-use schemes
19
3
No. of existing /
758
885
€8,225
133.30%
Purchasing Power /
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
23
Szczecin
Despite the relatively large population base, Szczecin has only
275,320 sqm of modern retail accommodation, creating the
lowest density per 1,000 inhabitants out of the analysed agglomerations at 508.
Since the opening of Galeria Kaskada, no major completions
have been recorded: the key positions in the city centre have
been taken by Galeria Kaskada and Galaxy. After suspension of
plans to extend Galaxy, there are no concrete plans to expand
retail provision in the city centre, whereas the peripheral location of Auchan Kołbaskowo is subject to rumours about expansion by Ikea.
Given the limited number of retail schemes, the agglomeration
has also the lowest number of brands operating.
Compared with other large agglomerations, Szczecin high
streets are in their infancy in both supply and demand. Retail units along Aleja Wyzwolenia and Aleja Wojska Polskiego
are mainly occupied by services and catering offer with no upmarket or luxury brands present.
The future of high streets in Szczecin can only be located
between Kaskada and Galaxy.
IN SZCZECIN Agglomeration
Category
DIY
Electronics
Entertainment &
leisure
Fashion mixed
Fashion women
Health & beauty
Prime rents in shopping centres vary from €38 to 43 per sqm
per month with high streets recording around €10-12 less.
Shoes
Sport equipment
Annual evolution of retail stock1 in Szczecin Agglomeration
Retailer
No. of units in
shopping centre
Est. total GLA
(sqm)
Leroy Merlin
2
20,000
Castorama
2
14,000
RTV Euro AGD
4
4,000
Saturn
1
3,000
Media Markt
2
5,000
Multikino
2
5,000
Helios
1
2,500
Reserved
5
4,500
Zara
2
4,000
H&M
2
3,200
TK Maxx
1
2,500
New Yorker
3
2,400
KappAhl
2
1,600
Carry
2
800
Mango
2
1,200
Mohito
3
1,200
Orsay
6
1,080
Stradivarius
2
800
Monnari
3
600
Promod
2
340
Rossmann
4
1,400
Douglas
4
1,120
Super Pharm
2
1,000
Sephora
3
750
Vision Express
6
720
CCC
7
3,500
Deichmann
5
2,250
Kazar
3
600
Wojas
4
520
Gino Rossi
3
420
Decathlon
2
5,600
GO Sport
1
1,000
Intersport
1
1,000
Martes Sport
1
600
Carrefour
3
15,000
12,000
Auchan
1
Tesco
1
7,000
50,000
Alma
1
2,000
45,000
Piotr i Paweł
1
1 400
sqm
40,000
Super /
hypermarket
35,000
30,000
25000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2017f
2016f
2014
2015f
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
24
Traditional SC
€38-43
1
Atrium Molo
2
Galaxy
centre
3
Galeria Kaskada
4
Ster
€/sqm/month
Jezioro
Dąbie
Other formats
1
ext. P – extension pipeline
2
4
Szczecin Outlet Park
(RO, ext. P)
3
1
1
275,320 sqm
6,000 sqm
HIGH STREETS IN Szczecin
sk
a
ha
lań
Po
d
rska
lenia
Mazu
cka
a
Mariack
a
a
Staromłyńsk
y
Tkacka
rodzic
pl. Żołnierza
Polskiego
ległoś
ci
bska
Kaszu
3
ejki
polsk
u
J. Mat
al. W
yzwo
Maz
owie
Mało
iepod
Śląska
iecha
Św. W
ojc
ni
ka
er
.K
op
M
łły
pl.
Lotników
kard
Kaszu
bska
Bogu
sława
X
Księc
ia
pl. Zwycięstwa
o
aleja N
sk
a
az
ur
M
bł. Kr
ólowe
j Jadw
igi
w
Piastó
Aleja
iastów
o
ieg
sk
ko
r
Si
Aleja
P
a Jagie
Śląska
ka
ols
ko
p
W
iel
wa
Pocz
to
Boles
ława
Śmia
łego
wa
Pocz
to
Warszawy
al. Bohaterów
Warszawy
al. Bohaterów
ietka
No. of existing /
lenia
ysław
a Łok
a
Kujawsk
ysław
wo
al. Wyz
Wład
Bogu
2
11
1
skieg
II
go
Więckowskiego
St.
ouste
ska
o
ieg
lsk
Po
CH Kupiec
Boles
pl.
ława
Krzyw
Kościuszki
Wład
ców Stali
ngrad
Obroń
Ślą
o
eg
ski
Piłsud
Jagiell
pl.
ońska
Zamenhofa
pl.
Zgody
skiego
n.
ła
aw
aP
Jan
al.
ka
skiego
J. Malczew
ay
R
L.
Ge
pl.
Grunwaldzki
go
kie
ys
a
.R
n.L
Ge
ka
ojs
al.W
iałego
II
llońs
A. Ma
łkow
ła
Jagie
wa Śm
Nowy
Turzyn
w
Pa
ńska
go
skie
Pol
ka
ojs
al.W
Bolesła
pl.
Odrodzenia
pl. Szarych
Szeregów
ello
a
an
sino
Cas
go
kie
ipc
a
go
kie
ws
e
i
łk
Żó
St.
z
ed
Ni
ols
aP
5L
Jagi
M.
J
al.
za
nte
wic
Mo
jsk
Wo
€26-31
€/sqm/month
kie
go
kie
ws
ko
iał
al.
Mic
GLA of existing /
Grodzka
. Ste
fana
Wyretail
Other
szy format or
skieg
mixed-useńschemes
o
508
516
€7,215
116.90%
Purchasing Power /
1. Pipeline (H2 2015-2017), 2. GFK
25
Investment Market
while investors’ interest remains strong, lack
of prime assets and portfolio products limit
the volume of transactions
Investor interest in the retail market in Poland continues to be
very strong. Yet, due to the limited number of retail schemes
for sale, recent volumes have been humble with only €260 million worth of assets traded in the first six months.
Prime yields have compressed to below 5.75% with further
compression foreseen with premium investment grade assets.
The secondary schemes are usually offered at 6.50-7.50%, depending on the size and location.
A few spectacular transactions scheduled for the second half
of the year (Riviera in Gdynia and the portfolio of Karolinka
and Pogoria in Opole and Dąbrowa Górnicza respectively) will
significantly boost the total size of investment deals sealed in
the whole 2015, which may reach well around €1 billion.
Investment volumes by sector
Prime yields by sector
in €m
%
Retail
Office
Mix use and other
Industrial
Forecast
Office
Retail
Industrial
10.00%
5,000
9.00%
4,000
8.00%
3,000
7.00%
2,000
2016f
2015f
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2004
2015f
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
4.00%
2006
0
2005
5.00%
2004
1,000
2005
6.00%
Selected transactions completed over H1 2014 and H1 2015
Project
City
GLA (sqm)
Volume (€m)
Poznań
59,000
227
Resolution Property / ECE
Focus Park
Bydgoszcz
41,000
122
Atrium European RE
Sarni Stok
Bielsko-Biała
31,200
85
Union Investment
Płock
28,500
70
CBRE Global Investors
Warsaw, Kraków
31,850
60
TIAA Henderson Real Estate
Opole
18,000
45
Rock Castle
Poznań City Center
Galeria Mazovia
50% of Neinver portfolio
Solaris
Purchaser
26
Definitions
The definitions listed below are consistent with the ICSC standards and have
been used for the purposes of this publication:
Shopping centre (esp. Conventional or Traditional SC) – a retail
property planned, constructed and managed as a single retail
entity which consists of a shared retail area of a minimum gross
leasable space (GLA) of 5,000 sqm and at least 10 shops.
Kraków agglomeration: Kraków and Niepołomice, Skawina,
Wieliczka i Zabierzów, Biskupice, Igołomia - Wawrzeńczyce,
Kocmyrzów - Luborzyca, Koniusza, Liszki, Michałowice, Mogilany,
Świątniki Górne, Wielka Wieś, Zielonki.
Retail park – a property with a consistent design, construction
and management which consists mainly of medium and largesized specialized retail facilities, which typically share an openair passage or a parking lot and are not joint under one roof.
Tri-City agglomeration: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Rumia, and Wejherowo,
and Pruszcz Gdański, Reda, Sopot, Cedry Wielkie, Kolbudy,
Kosakowo, Szemud, Żukowo.
Outlet centre – a property with a consistent design, construction
and management with separate shops in which the producers or
retailers sell surplus stock, end-of-line products and products
from previous collections at reduced prices.
Warsaw agglomeration includes: Warsaw, Brwinów, KonstancinJeziorna, Łomianki, Marki, Piaseczno, Piastów, Podkowa
Leśna, Raszyn, Błonie, Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Józefów, Kobyłka,
Legionowo, Milanówek, Otwock, Ożarów Mazowiecki, Pruszków,
Radzymin, Sulejówek, Wołomin, Ząbki, Zielonka, Halinów,
Izabelin, Jabłonna, Lesznowola, Michałowice, Nadarzyn, Nieporęt,
Stare Babice, Wiązowna.
Łódź agglomeration: Łódź, Pabianice, Rzgów, Zgierz, Aleksandrów
Łódzki, Andrespol, Brojce, Konstantynów Łódzki, Ksawerów,
Nowosolna, Ozorków, Stryków.
Poznań agglomeration: Poznań, Swarzędz, Tarnowo Podgórne,
Komorniki, Kórnik, Luboń, Mosina, Puszczykowo, Rokietnica,
Suchy Las, Czerwonak, Dopiewo, Kleszczewo
Wrocław agglomeration: Wrocław, Kąty Wrocławskie
i Kobierzyce, Czernica, Długołęka, Miękinia, Oborniki Śląskie,
Siechnice, Wisznia Mała, Żórawina.
Szczecin agglomeration: Szczecin i Kołbaskowo, Dobra, Goleniów,
Gryfino, Kobylanka, Police, Stare Czarnowo.
Silesia agglomeration: Katowice, Bytom, Chorzów, Czeladź,
Dąbrowa Górnicza, Gliwice, Knurów, Mikołów, Mysłowice,
Piekary Śląskie, Ruda Śląska, Siemianowice Śląskie, Sosnowiec,
Świętochłowice, Tarnowskie Góry, Tychy, Zabrze, and Będzin,
Jaworzno, Radzionków oraz Gierałtowice, Wojkowice.
Contacts
Patrick Delcol
Izabela Mucha MRICS
Del Chandler
Chief Executive Officer
Head of Valuation
Managing Director, Capital Markets
Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fabrice Paumelle
Grzegorz Dudziak MRICS
Dr. Piotr Goździewicz MRICS
Head of Retail
Head of Property Management
Director, Capital Markets
Poland and Central & Eastern Europe
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Natasa Mika
Michał Pszkit
Mateusz Skubiszewski MRICS
Associate Director, Retail
Operations Director
Director, Capital Markets
[email protected]
Property Management
[email protected]
Anna Staniszewska
[email protected]
Head of Research & Consultancy
[email protected]
Cover: Kupiec Poznański, Poznań - BNP Paribas Real Estate picture library
P8: Magnolia Park, Wrocław - picture by courtesy of Multi Poland Sp. z o.o.
P9: Bonarka City Center, Kraków - picture by courtesy of TriGranit Management Corporation
Hong Kong
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Tel.: +31 20 305 97 20
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Tel.: +971 44 248 277
Fax: +971 44 257 817
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Emaar Square
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P.O. Box 7233, Dubaï
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© BNP Paribas Real Estate 2015, R-15-1-C&R
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retail market in poland. - BNP Paribas Real Estate

Transcription

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