Q1 2016 Digital POV.indd

Market
OVERVIEW
G
iven the prolonged downturn in the energy sector, the
supply and demand imbalance that widened through
2015 has persisted into this year. In the first quarter
of 2016 Calgary experienced absorption of negative
808,942 square feet. Over the last seven quarters, vacancy
more than doubled to near record highs through an additional
4.36 million square feet of supply coming to market. To put it in
perspective, the amount of space returned to the market since
mid-2014 is equal to the entire Bankers Hall complex … 2.5 times
over, or roughly 15,000 empty chairs.
To look at the mounting vacancy through another lens, in 2010
through 2012 – the last bull run for office space in Calgary – an
average of over two million square feet of office space was leased
per year. The pace at which we are seeing space return to market
is proving to be just as rapid with continued uncertainty on just
how long the slide will last.
Vacancy in the downtown core is currently just shy of 20%. The
bulk of the supply arrived in the class AA and A markets, which
has brought with it numerous quality options for tenants of all
sizes. Class AA vacancy is 12.97%, class A is 23.74%, and B and
C classes sit at 22.28% and 21.28% respectively. Not surprisingly
with the surge in supply, rental rates have been under extreme
pressure; in particular, the mid and lower class buildings in the
sublease sector. Select landlords who are carrying, or facing,
substantial headlease vacancy have no choice but to roll up their
sleeves and try to compete with aggressive sublease metrics to
retain or attract tenants.
In addition to the marketed vacancy there is a silent, but quickly
expanding supply of “ghost” space that exists within the market.
This empty space doesn’t make its way into our reported
numbers, but many larger companies have chosen to sit on the
sidelines with their idle premises rather than competing in this
increasingly aggressive market. Conservatively, there is another
two to three million square feet in the system that is not being
formally marketed, which would put the effective availability rate
closer to 24-27%.
It is important to consider this ghost space because companies
who are strong enough to sit on excess space will, generally
speaking, be the first to grow when the energy markets turn …
and when they do, these larger companies are the ones with
the ability to swing the real estate market. However, it will take a
great deal of hiring to fill up their internal vacancy before any of
these companies need to go to the open market for any additional
space. Further to that, given how lean many of these companies
have become, there is a strong argument to be made that it will
take a long time for them to get back to their previous staffing
levels.
Table 1: Q1 2016 Vacancy Summary
BUILDING CLASS
TOTAL INVENTORYHEADLEASE
SUBLEASE
TOTAL
(sf)
(sf) (%) (sf)(%) (sf) (%)
Downtown
AA
14,380,855
A
17,047,968
2,256,12913.23%
1,790,21010.50%
4,046,33923.74%
AA/A
31,428,823
2,783,060
B
7,502,181
C
2,630,987
Total Downtown
41,561,991
526,931
3.66%1,338,871
8.86%3,129,081
9.31%1,865,802
9.96%5,912,141
12.97%
18.81%
1,208,49616.11%462,991 6.17%
1,671,48722.28%
426,021 16.19%133,906 5.09%559,927 21.28%
4,417,577 10.63%3,725,978
8.96%8,143,555 19.59%
Beltline
Beltline
4,756,550
529,162
11.12%
260,178 5.47%
789,340
16.59%
SW Beltline
1,255,540
106,203
8.46%
42,214 3.36%
148,417
11.82%
Total Beltline
6,012,090
635,365 10.57%302,392 5.03%937,757 15.60%
Total Downtown & Beltline
47,574,081
5,052,942
10.62%
4,028,370
8.47%
9,081,312
19.09%
Graph 2: Average Headlease vs Sublease Net Rental Rates
Graph 1: Sublease Vacancy
Index
Sublease
Vacancy Index
Headlease vs Sublease Net Rental Rates
Q1 2016
80%
$35.00
70%
$30.00
60%
AA/A = 52.93%
$25.00
50%
$20.00
$15.00
B =27.70%
30%
C =23.91%
20%
10%
Net Rental Rate (psf)
Percentage of Total Vacancy
40%
$10.00
$5.00
$-
0%
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Class AA/A
Class B
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Class AA
Class A
Headlease, net
Class C
Class B
Class C
Sublease, net
Table 2: Large Blocks of Contiguous Space, Downtown Calgary
Buildings
Type
Area (sf)
Building
Type
Area (sf)
One Stephen Plaza
Headlease
287,000
Bankers Hall - West
Headlease
107,333
Centennial Place - East
Upcoming Sublease*
197,188
Western Canadian Place - South
Sublease
105,000
F1RST TOWER
Headlease
177,131
Bankers Hall - West
Sublease
100,609
Fifth Avenue Place - West Headlease
149,486
Gulf Canada Square
Sublease
96,802
Fifth Avenue Place - West Headlease
144,557
Jamieson Place
Sublease
96,139
Hanover Place
Upcoming Headlease*
123,360
Bow Valley Square II
Sublease
92,111
Eau Claire Tower
Sublease
109,619
Livingston Place - West
Sublease
90,136
*Note: Upcoming space not available within the next six months.
Section02
Market
FORECAST
W
ith over 8.14 million square feet of available space,
potentially three million square feet in “ghost” space,
and taking into account Calgary’s 15-year average
absorption of approximately 600,000 square feet
per annum, Calgary’s downtown core currently has an 18-year
supply of space. Even more concerning, this doesn’t account
for additional space we will see come from the existing market
over the remainder of the year or any surplus space that is to be
delivered at the end of this development cycle.
There are three new developments yet to be delivered to
market, which will arrive between 2017 and 2018. These include
Manulife’s 707 Fifth (58% leased, 2017 delivery) Brookfield
Place - East (71% leased, 2017 delivery) and Telus Sky (36%
leased, 2018 delivery). While these developments have hit their
pre-leasing thresholds to build, the question is how much of
the premises committed to will be occupied by their respective
anchor tenants? In addition to quickly changing staffing counts,
these companies are also facing millions of dollars per floor to
construct the space. In an environment where cash conservation
is key, it will be very interesting to monitor the pulse of these
buildings to see what impact they have on the overall market in
the coming years.
Through the remainder of 2016 we expect more of the same –
consolidation in staffing counts, decreasing company footprints
and an upward trend in vacancy. This will continue to put
downward pressure on rental rates and increased inducement
packages available to active tenants. Further to this, there has
been a lot of talk on the streets of mergers and acquisitions.
Although we have yet to see many, this is the type of market
where Calgary could see some blockbuster transactions. If M&A
activity picks up later in the year it will result in even more supply
as most acquiring companies will likely have enough internal
vacancy to absorb any additional employees tied to a deal.
The future is not clear, but what is becoming increasingly
apparent is Calgary’s downtown market is going to be slanted
in the tenant’s favour for some time. With vacancy projected to
plateau in the mid 20% range over the next couple of years we
will match, or surpass the record highs set in the 1980’s.
It’s almost like we are playing a game of reverse musical chairs,
where every time the music stops a chair is added and a player
is taken out of the game. The amount of chairs available to
players right now are numerous and this market will lead to many
securing “that” transaction they talk about for years to come.
Downtown Vacancy Projections
All Classes, Forecasted to 2020
Graph 3: Forecasted Vacancy
24.00%
2,500,000
22.00%
20.00%
2,000,000
18.00%
Tenant Market
707 Fifth St
&
Brookfield
Place - East
16.00%
1,500,000
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
1,000,000
6.00%
500,000
4.00%
Eau Claire
Tower
Telus Sky
2.00%
0.00%
0
2008
2009
New Inventory
2010
2011
2012
Historical Vacancy (%)
2013
2014
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast Forecast
2019
2020
Forecasted Vacancy (%)
GOOD NEWS FOR TENANTS
W
e are in as strong of a tenant’s market as we have
seen in Calgary since the 1980’s. We still hear
tenants talk about the real estate transactions they
secured during those times and it appears we are in the
window for these same types of transactions to occur.
For tenants lucky enough to have stable business models
or expiries in the next two years, the market will likely be
ripe enough to do “that transaction” they will talk about
years down the road.
Calgary
downtown office
rate
balloons to nearly
vacancy
20%
Vacancy (%)
New Inventory (sf)
8.00%
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Floors: 40
Building Area: 555,000 sf
Ave. Floor Plate: 13,800 sf
Est. Completion: n/a
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Floors: 27
Building Area: 698,000 sf
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Ave. Floor Plate: 27,500 sf
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Anchor Tenants: n/a
5
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Landlord: LPI Corp.
Office Floors: 12
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Percentage Leased: 58%
Anchor Tenants:
Brion Energy
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Properties
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Building Area: 1,400,000 sf
Ave. Floor Plate:
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Office Area: 144,000 sf
Ave. Floor Plate:
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n/a
4
1108 - 4th Street SW
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Building Area: 186,600 sf
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Floors: 19
Building Area: 315,400 sf
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n/a
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Place 10 - West
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Developments
Floors: 14
Building Area: 300,000 sf
Ave. Floor Plate:
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Est. Completion: n/a
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.
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GePlaz
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Graph 4: Historical Downtown Office Absorption
Historical Downtown Office Absorption
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Absorption (000's sf)
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Class AA/A
659,294
268,402
290,854
401,609
856,836
385,546
195,880
913,865
712,609
Class B
246,730
47,503
134,354
122,278
138,464
203,178
93,252
63,475
10,624
Class C
15,453
39,216
397
26,949
49,277
24,393
52,236
35,625
106,957
Quarterly Absorption
397,111
181,683
425,605
550,836
1,044,577
564,331
50,392
1,012,965
808,942
Average Net Rental Rates, All Classes
2010-2016
Graph 5: Average Headlease Net Rental Rate per sf, All Classes
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
Net Rate per sf
$10.00
$5.00
$2011
2012
Class AA Net Rent
2013
Class A Net Rent
2014
Class B Net Rent
2015
2016 YTD
Class C Net Rent
Average Operating Cost per sf
Graph 6: Average Operating Costs per sf
$25
$20
$15
Cost per sf
$10
$5
$0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Class AA/A
$17.74
$18.30
$19.84
$21.27
$22.45
$22.88
Class B
$15.53
$15.43
$16.22
$18.44
$19.38
$19.01
Class C
$14.40
$14.60
$14.50
$16.07
$16.74
$16.90
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Detailed
Appendices
Why Cresa?
We think of real estate as a business tool — one that goes beyond just your operational needs to help you
enhance your image, attract top talent and drive profitability.
Accordingly, our approach to real estate is entirely strategic. Before we think about your space requirements,
we think about the business needs behind them. Only by understanding those needs can we address them in a
meaningful, goal-oriented way.
We advise commercial tenants exclusively — no landlords, no developers — so we can be completely objective
and conflict-free. By concentrating single-mindedly on tenant issues, we gain both the perspective and the
experience to level the playing field in landlord-tenant relations. We are, in every sense, the tenant’s advantage.
This unique focus is supported by a complete array of integrated services that cover every stage of the real
estate life cycle, from the planning to the transaction to the implementation. These services drive the tactical
execution behind our strategic thinking, and they lead directly to solutions that reduce costs, improve operations
and enhance the performance of your workforce.
two
three
four
five
Cresa exclusively represents tenants and is one of the largest office leasing groups in downtown
Calgary. Cresa is the largest tenant representation firm in North America, with 58 offices and
over 800 employees.
Cresa has a substantial market share in Calgary and represents many of the largest space users.
We attribute this success to our corporate DNA, which is guided by the principle “always do the
right thing”.
Cresa’s emphasis is on strategic planning, not transactions. We are guided by service, not sales.
We break the “traditional” broker model.
Cresa believes in collaboration in order to achieve the best results for our clients. We are the
only firm in Calgary that has an office wide shared, proprietary database. This results in Cresa
having the best corporate culture and market data in Calgary.
Cresa is one of the few real estate firms with an established legacy and succession plan to
provide continuity and a level of service to our clients for years to come.
2015 Watkins
Survey
The Watkins Research Group, Inc., in a joint
project with Flaspöhler Research Group,
conducted interviews with 273 corporate
real estate decision makers, representing
North America’s largest users of commercial
real estate services.
Evaluated
p
one
om
5
Reasons to Engage Cresa as your Exclusive Real Estate Provider
Who responded?
32 Fortune 500
33 Financial Times 500
257 C
Top
an
ies
23
corporate real estate service providers
and identified key consideration in
selecting these providers.
5%
12%
Director/Manager of Real Estate
14%
273
individuals
surveyed
42%
VP of Real Estate
CEO/President
CFO, COO, CMO
Other
26%